Hawai'i Weatherman

Day Zero 9/1 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 1 Sep 2005 19:00:00 -1000

Today I shift my focus from this blog to High Surf Warning, a joint venture with Jamie Dematoff ("The Rock Warrior"). I won't abandon the blog immediately, but HSW will aggregate a whole lot more stuff and make it more available to anyone interested in "Weather, surf, and climate forecasts for Island recreation and businesses".

It is media-heavy so may take a while to load on older machines with dial-up. And there are a few typos and layout issues that need more attention, but our guy busted his okole and we still missed our deadline. Check it out and let us know what you think. I would greatly appreciate your feedback.

Hawaiian Time 9/1 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 1 Sep 2005 14:27:00 -1000

Well, 1:00 PM has come and gone, but the news will be posted before long. Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: "Every takes longer and costs more".

Special Note 9/1 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 1 Sep 2005 02:32:00 -1000

Check back this afternoon sometime after 1:oo PM for a special note that relates to "day zero".

Late Update 8/31 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 31 Aug 2005 23:41:00 -1000

There are scattered showers upstream in moderate trades. They should diminish overnight, but it looks like they will increase again late Thurs

Buoys are dark because of Katrina. I expect a continued small S'ly background, with bigger S'ly swell early next week; nothing big just better than recently.

Brief Da Kine 8/31 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 31 Aug 2005 04:02:00 -1000

Normal trades are back after a brief lull. There are minor isolated showers upstream; skies should be mostly sunny Wed. Trades will increase late this weekend for next week.

Buoys still dark at this hour for some reason. There is a moderate, narrow storm E of NZ and well-directed towards the Islands that should cause a head high + swell ~ Tues, dropping late next week, but reinforced by a smaller S'ly background the weekend of 9/10.

Nabi (below) is actually headed for Kyushu.

Talim and Nabi 8/31 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 31 Aug 2005 03:48:00 -1000

Two typhoons threaten Taiwan/China.

Why We Fought WWII 8/31 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 31 Aug 2005 03:25:00 -1000

Arbeit Macht Frei!! (stolen from Reuters)

German Environment Minister blames Katrina on
US and Global Warming. Robt. Kennedy, Jr., agrees,
proving that brains are inversely proportional to breeding.

Brief Da Kine 8/30 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 30 Aug 2005 03:54:00 -1000

Local weather is tilting back to light trades with a few isolated showers in E'ly trades. Some lingering afternoon convection is likely pushed to the far leeward sides of islands and at E'ly exposures to upstream plumes. More normal trades will become more established through the week.

A weak SSW'ly background should keep S'ly exposures longboardble through the week. A better-organized storm is getting organized E of NZ which would bring a bigger S swell next week, but it isn't really all that big a deal.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/29 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 29 Aug 2005 03:36:00 -1000

Local winds are trendng light E'ly/SE'ly with some embedded scattered showers. Looks a lot like Sun even with a different wind. Some isolated convective afternoon showers and seabreezes. Trades slowly returning Tues.

There were a couple of very marginal bumps from the NW on the horizon but too small to bother with. S'ly swell is small and changing direction. All buoys are dark at this hour for some reason. I expect a long-boardable background from the SSW this week. Maybe something better next week.

There is a likely impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Islands. Oil futures are expected to jump 5% today because of a supply shock on production in the Gulf. Gas prices could go up another 5 %. Gas Cap, Shmash Cap.

Brief Da Kine 8/28 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 28 Aug 2005 04:01:00 -1000

Winds are calm leading to the possilility of afternoon convective showers and seabreezes on Sun. The S swell is fading slowly.

Weather looks good for the Little League Championship in Williamsport, PA Sun: W O'ahu v. Curacao.

Hurricane Katrina is a Cat 5, and looks like Camille of several decades ago. The Big Easy is in big trouble.

Really Manini Da Kine 8/27 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 27 Aug 2005 17:56:00 -1000

Trades continue to slow, making afternoon convection and seabreezes a possiblility for Sun/Mon. Fading S swell.

Manini Da Kine 8/26 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 18:25:00 -1000

Mostly fair and dry tonight with little upstream cloudiness and slowing trades. Little change in my last update.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/26 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 04:48:00 -1000

Trades are slowing down and it looks like they will be variable over the weekend - even briefly S'ly Mon. Moderate trades will return on Tues. During this down time, afternoon convective showers become more likely, along with afternoon seabreezes. We'll play it by ear. At this moment, there are scattered clouds upstream that look mostly dry.

There apppears to be a new tropical depression forming S of Baja CA. It may be short-loved.

Katrina is on the way to a Cat 2-3 hurricane making landfall in the FL panhandle late Sun.

There are minor bumps due from the N and NW early next week, but barely worth mentioning.

A new S'ly swell is registering on buoys 51oo2 and 51004. S'ly exposures should see head high + waves through much of the weekend. The SW'ly background should keep longboardable waves in the background next week. Also on the horizon is a better-organized storm E of NZ early next week, due in a week later.

"[Pat Robertson] is proof of Unintelligent Design." --Christopher Hitchens

Really Manini Da Kine 8/25 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:25:00 -1000

A few isolated showers overnight converging from the NE/E upstream. Fading trades. Overnight update.

Surf & Weather Update 8/25 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 25 Aug 2005 03:59:00 -1000

Light trade wind showers are stacked up against most windward areas early this AM, and should clear later this AM. Trades are fading to variable for the weekend, which will tilt to an afternoon convective shower pattern with afternoon seabreezes.

A tiny bump from the NW is over the horizon for late this weekend, and a head high + bump from the N early next week.

The S'n Hemi continues to stir to life with a small S bump due this weekend, and more background swell spread out over next week from the Roaring 40s and Furious 50s. Models show the first significant S swell in months developing in our swell window next Tues, for a crunchy S swell in ~ 11-12 days.

TS Katrina is reving up just offshore from S FL. There is still a lot of divergence about the exact track and development of this storm, but I think it's safe to say that this will be a big rain event for S FL. In fact, I've noted torrential rains recently and currently in E Asia, across C'l Mexico, scattered across the Caribbean and in parts of Mid and E Europe. Lots of wide spread flooding.

Really Brief Da Kine 8/24 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 24 Aug 2005 06:48:00 -1000

Broken clouds upsteam of all islands are probably dry with a few isolated showers that could pop up later today and this evening in moderate trades. Fading N/S swell.

Brief Tropical Cyclone Update 8/23 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 23 Aug 2005 23:55:00 -1000

While there's zero impact for the Islands, there is Tropical Depression 12 which has been identified in the Bahamas. There's been a lot of scattered disturbed weather throughout the Caribbean and Gulf. The current models are very undecided about the future course and development, unlike recent well-behaved systems. It could reach S FL early this weekend, then either continue into the Gulf and plague the Panhandle area again, or move up the E Coast. Whether it stays in the depression stage over FL is very uncertain, but if it follows either very divergent track it will likely strengthen when it moves offshore.

Brief Update 8/23 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 23 Aug 2005 18:12:00 -1000

Light isolated evening showers in the trades. Winds will reach a minor peak Wed, then fade slightly. We are in the transitional period when trades get really lazy into fall. There will be minor isolated showers in these trades after nearly a week of dry weather.

There was a little peaky short-period bump today from the N/NE today which should fade overnight. (See Surf & Weather Alert 8/19 AM below.) Some of these marginal swells are "too small to call".

The small S bump is also fading, but we expect more by the weekend. The Christmas Island buoy has been dark for wave info several days, so there won't be much help there.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 22 Aug 2005 21:52:00 -1000

Sunset from N Shore O'ahu 8/21/05--Scott Hartvigsen

Manini Da Kine 8/22 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 22 Aug 2005 17:32:00 -1000

Skies upstream continue mostly clear with a few broken clouds upstream of the Big Island. Light trades will slowly increase with a slight increase in trade wind showers ~ midweek, but still manini by any standard.

The small S swell will fade slightly, but there are a couple of small bumps on the horizon. Hopefully, the S'n Hemi will come alive for a late 2nd Act this fall, as it often does when we have a good spring and crummy summer.

Surf & Weather Alert 8/22 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 22 Aug 2005 02:01:00 -1000

Light trades will continue and slowly return to moderate speeds at midweek. Local weather looks uneventful; postcard weather for the next few days.

Hurricane Hilary is churning away SW of Baja and near its peak. Big surf there at S'ly exposures. It is expected to wander WNW and fade, with no effect on our windward windwaves. Little swell for CA from Hilary and only minor waves late this week. One of the main models shows another TS following Hilary late this week. It looks like the tropical activity has shifted to the E Pac at least briefly. GIFS shows another tropical cyclone in the mid Atlantic in a few days with no threat to land.

Locally there should be a small head high + bump at S'ly exposures late Mon, with more very small waves late this week and weekend. A weak front N of the Islands is too weak to generate measurable swell action in the Islands.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 21 Aug 2005 21:14:00 -1000

Sunset off Kaena Point 8/21/05 --Scott Hartvigsen

Brief Update 8/20 PM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 20 Aug 2005 18:42:00 -1000

Beach weather through Sun. A few isolated sprinkles in the trades, which are weakening.

Small pulse of S'ly swell beginning to show at the Christmas Island buoy which should increase the background at S'ly exposures Mon.

Hurricane Hilary S of Baja CA is forecast to peak Mon as a Cat 1 on a NW'ly track, then fade rapidly. No effect for the Islands. Little or no effect on CA and what there is will be next weekend. Baja should be feeling it early this week.

Global Cooling 8/20 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 20 Aug 2005 03:52:00 -1000

Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world

Hurricane Futures 8/20 AM

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 20 Aug 2005 03:38:00 -1000

Bet on hurricanes with Mahem. Bet on that and a lot of other stuff.