Hawk Blogger

First Reactions: Hawks Beat Lions 32-20

2009-11-08T18:04:00.000-08:00

Being a Lions fan has to be among the worst things a sports fan can be. The Seahawks started a game about as bad as you can start (for the second straight home game), and yet I turned to my buddy with confidence as we went down 17-0 and said, "You know we're still going to win this game, right?" And that wasn't arrogance as a Hawks fan. It was just awareness of what the Lions are.

I really feel for those folks. Hopeless.

Quick hitters:

- David Hawthorne. Three starts, three times leading the team in tackles and making at least two major impact plays in each game. I don't miss Lofa one bit.

- Julius Jones will get some praise for his long screen play, but for god sakes, why doesn't anyone see how much he's holding the team back? He offers almost nothing out there! I think he and Edge are a toss-up, and we just waived Edge. Forsett gets one carry for 14 yards. Unacceptable.

- Matt has never seemed comfortable with this offense. He might have had a record day with stats, but he continues to look hesitant and is missing much bigger gains by locking into a single receiver.

- Nice game by Josh Wilson

- Jon Ryan continues to be the best Seahawk this year.

GAME THREAD: Hawks vs. Lions

2009-11-08T09:49:00.000-08:00

This game is like clash of the titans, only re-enacted by disabled, elderly little people. That said, there are a few things I am looking forward to:

- David Hawthorne further proving that Lofa has been loafing the past two seasons, and that a talented, hungry middle linebacker can make plays behind this defensive line

- Sean Locklear? Could it be? I'd really like to start evaluating how much of this o-line will need to be blown up and rebuilt next year.

- Forsett and/or Rankin getting some carries with Edge out of town

- Housh and Matt shutting everybody up

- A little run for Deon Butler?

- Aaron Curry tends to be a beast at home, especially against shitty teams.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nick Reed will have a memorable play today

All the media outlets have chalked this game up as a gimme victory. What people fail to realize is that the Hawks are not good enough to have any certain wins. The Lions have given a number of teams more fight than they expected. I think it's fair to expect a Hawks victory, but unwise to count on one.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 8

2009-11-03T07:22:00.000-08:00

Check out the powerhouse NFC West with no team ranked higher than 18!! Congrats to the Rams on being ranked higher than 32nd for the first time all season. As always, I recommend clicking on the Chart1 scatter chart for a different perspective.

RECAP: Cowboys Stomp Hawks 38-17

2009-11-02T07:27:00.000-08:00

Let me start by saying, I'm not mad or depressed or even disappointed in the game yesterday. Fool me once, and all that. I point out my state of mind to dismiss any notion of this being the ramblings of a tortured soul. This is where we are people. Get used to the view.

As I watched the game yesterday (I only saw about half of it due to vomiting youngest son who needed a hospital visit which was nearly as much fun as the game), my overwhelming feeling was, "How the hell are we going to fix this?"

It was annoying to read the paper this morning and see quotes claiming confusion and disbelief that Seahawks were playing so poorly. What could possibly be leading to this? Uh, seriously?

There are many types of poor NFL teams. There are the bad teams that are young at key positions, building toward something better. I'll give you the 2006 Arizona Cardinals (5-11), for example. They had the core of their young offensive line in place, key defensive players like Docket and Wilson, and were about to draft a franchise player in Fitzgerald the following off-season.

There are also bad teams that are just broken and are not building toward anything. The current St Louis Rams would be an example of that.

Then you have a team like the Seahawks that is terminally ill. Key parts of the body (offensive line, defensive line, running back) are dead or dying, but this won't be a merciless, quick death, and the hopes of recovery hinge on regrowing or replacing vital organs. The Hawks can't just buy or build a new offensive line. We've had a couple of decent lines in the Hawks 35-year history. They are not a certainty. They take years to groom and stabilize, and are even harder to come by in the world of free agency and salary cap. Defensive lines are the second hardest thing to replace. The Hawks have a number of young players on this defensive line, and none of them appear to be cornerstones you can build around. For the hype around Mebane, he's no budding superstar.

Even our supposedly strongest position, linebacker, is highly questionable. David Hawthorne has played the best two games of any linebacker on the Seahawks team this season, and better than any game Lofa Tatupu has played in the past two seasons. LeRoy Hill has been middling, at best. Curry looks like he'll be a nice player, but not a franchise player. These are your linebackers for years, folks. Tons of money invested there.

For all the concern about Hasselbeck's health and future, he could still lead a good team to a championship. This just isn't a good team. He's at the point in his career that he must have a reliable running game and offensive line to work with. He's got neither. I will say that Matt left three TDs on the field yesterday by throwing the ball on a line without enough air under it. One to Housh. One on a screen moments later, and one on the diving catch Burleson made down field. If any of those throws had allowed his receivers to run underneath it, the Hawks would have scored. And even though I don't think Housh's antics are the right way to show it, Hasselbeck is not using him appropriately.

Bottom line is that we've got problems that are not going to be fixed in one or even two off-seasons.

GAME THREAD: Hawks @ Cowboys

2009-11-01T06:57:00.001-08:00

This is going to be brutal. Come join me for the fun!

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Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 7

2009-10-29T17:09:00.000-07:00

I recommend checking out the scatter chart this week (click Chart1 link below). You'll notice that the Saints and Colts have separated themselves, followed by the Pats, Packers and Broncos, and then it's really everyone else.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 6

2009-10-22T07:25:00.000-07:00

Here's the updated rankings for week 6. Scatter chart is available by clicking on the chart tab toward the bottom.

Yesterday and Tomorrow

2009-10-19T06:15:00.000-07:00

Games like the one we saw yesterday only happen when one team comes ready to play and the other does not. A full hour before kickoff yesterday, it was very clear which team had energy and enthusiasm. I tweeted about it at the time, but I'd be lying if I told you I expected an outcome like that.

The most likely scenario is that the Hawks season is now just about playing out the string.

Sun, Nov 1 @ Dallas

Outcome: Loss, 2-5

Sun, Nov 8 Detroit

Outcome: Win, 3-5

Sun, Nov 15 @ Arizona

Outcome: Loss, 3-6

Sun, Nov 22 @ Minnesota

Outcome: Loss, 3-7

Sun, Nov 29 @ St. Louis

Outcome: Win, 4-7

Sun, Dec 6 San Francisco

Outcome: Win, 5-7

Sun, Dec 13 @ Houston

Outcome: Loss, 5-8

Sun, Dec 20 Tampa Bay

Outcome: Win, 6-8

Sun, Dec 27 @ Green Bay

Outcome: Loss, 6-9

Sun, Jan 3 Tennessee

Outcome: Win, 7-9

A loss @ STL is possible as is a loss at home against SF. I can envision one upset here or there that gets us to 8-8, but that's about it.

As you've probably read by now, Lofa is out for the season with a torn pectoral. It will be very interesting to see if David Hawthorne's game against the Bears was a fluke. He had 2 tackles for loss after replacing Lofa yesterday. If Hawthorne emerges, what kind of trade scenarios does that open up?

A few things stood out to me from the game yesterday:

* Larry Fitzgerald is awe-inspiring. That catch he made on 3rd and 2 on the first drive of the game after falling to the ground was shocking. It's like he is out there catching balls with a big salmon net. I don't understand why they don't throw him the ball every single play. I honestly don't think he is defensible.

* What is the world was DD Lewis doing on that onsides kick? He moved toward it and then backed away from it. Embarrassing.

* People will blame the offensive line for our trouble moving the ball, but Matt was back there looking for receivers and finding nobody. He did not have endless amounts of time, but he had enough to make 1-3 reads and get rid of the ball. Greg Knapp gets an F- for yesterday. He was soundly beaten by the Cards defensive schemes. I can't remember the last time our offense looked that inept. Knapp also has shown a disturbing tendency to get desperate in the worst times. The 3rd and 5 call to go deep to Deon Butler was desperate and low percentage. We have not hit that play all year, and we're all of a sudden going to nail it then? Passing on 2nd and 3rd and goal from the 3 yard line? Starting the second half with two straight runs? If I had to pick one goat, he'd be the one.

* Nick Reed finally got significant playing time and was a non-factor. Too bad.

Those were the thoughts worth sharing. Bad weekend for Washington football.

GAME THREAD: Hawks vs. Cardinals

2009-10-18T09:55:00.001-07:00

It has become quite the fashionable and correct thing to bash our now infamous head-basher, Owen Schmitt. Commentators and media alike quickly realized that showing any sort of support for his bloody act would potentially encourage younger players to follow his lead. I get that. I, however, have no such obligation or responsibility to worry about since I am not concerned that my faithful two readers will be bashing their heads with hard objects any more now than they were before Schmitt did the deed. I, for one, loved it. As a fan of a team stuck with the "finesse/pushover" label for its entire history, I was thrilled to see one of our own buck the trend and perception. Nothing would help this battered team more than to grow a collective spine and decide that toughness and anger and grit were their ticket to success and respect this season. Because let's face it, as much as we talk about how critical this game in against Arizona, our biggest aspirations are to make the playoffs. Nobody could credibly argue we can reach the same class as teams like the Giants or Saints.

I'd almost rather see the Hawks let go of the playoff dreams and focus instead on establishing a new identity as a team that is going to physically kick your ass every time we play you, win or lose. Aaron Curry plays that way. Lawyer Milloy plays that way. David Hawthorne plays that way. We need more violence from our defense. We need to punish teams just for playing us. It's a shame that the first demonstration of maniacal toughness this team has seen in years is so widely panned. I'll be showing my support today by celebrating Halloween a few weeks early with a fake gash and blood on my face today at Qwest. Hope to see you there!

THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S GAME
I have gotten progressively less confident about today's game as the week as gone on. Matt got through last week almost untouched. It feels like he is one blindside hit away from being out again. Kelly Jennings might be the worst matchup with Larry Fitzgerald in the NFL given his total lack of ability to compete for the jump ball, and I expect him to line up against him for much of the day since Josh Wilson slides inside to guard the slot receiver in 3 WR sets. All that said, I think we have a shot given it's a game at Qwest and the Cardinals are not a dominant team.

To win, we need to hit Warner regularly. I'd take a few roughing the passer penalties if we could get some good shots in. I don't know that knocking out Warner to bring in Leinart is a net positive for us, though. I'd prefer a skittish Warner. Tackling will be key. Lots of swing passes to their RB and big, strong WRs. The difference today will be turnovers and passing. I'd bet the team with the highest QB rating wins today.

Feel free to chat during the game without me: http://my.adobe.acrobat.com/hawkblogger

Great Matchup Analysis

2009-10-14T10:05:00.001-07:00

After scouring the web for years looking for a reliable place to find things like Red Zone success rate, I finally found a great site: http://www.teamrankings.com

I would highly recommend checking out their analysis of the Hawks/Cards game this weekend. Lots of strong signs pointing to a Seahawks victory. Be sure to click on the matchup stats tab. It's chock-full-of great info.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 5

2009-10-13T06:10:00.000-07:00

The Hawks make a major climb up the charts after their blowout. You won't see this kind of movement in other rankings as mine are strongly influenced by point differential. That said, popular opinion-based rankings, like those of ESPN had New England ranked higher than the Broncos. I haven't wanted to believe it, but my rankings have had the Broncos in the Top 4 since Week 2.

The Hawks have two games left against teams ranked higher than them, both on the road (@Dallas, @Minnesota).

This week I've added a distribution graph to see if there is any grouping to the rankings. You can click the "chart1" link on the ranking sheet above to see the detailed view. You can see that the top two teams stand out, followed by a group of four that still eclipse the 10 point mark. From there, you have 12 teams bunched between 0-10 points. That's the scrum. That's where the Seahawks sit after this past Sunday.

First Look: Arizona Cardinals

2009-10-12T19:31:00.000-07:00

Many NFL observers and experts expected the Cardinals to fall on their faces after a
Super Bowl run last season. The word was that they had a miracle run that was unlikely to happen again. I was in the minority that expected them to be a better, more consistent team this season.

They did not lose any significant players. Many of their best players outside of QB are young and still improving. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston and Kurt Warner appeared to be every bit the offensive Juggernaut they were last season. And yet, here they stand at 2-2, just a half-game better than our beleaguered Seahawks squad that has more missing starters than Jacksonville had first downs. Why? There was not an obvious answer on first blush.

This is a team that ranked 7th (2007) and 3rd (2008) in points scored the last two seasons, that is currently ranked 21st. The slide is even larger in yards/game where they slipped from 4th in the NFL all the way to 27th this season.

Kurt Warner's passer rating is down from 96.9 to 89.7. Not exactly the stuff that foreshadows impending offensive doom. His TD% (the percentage of TDs thrown per pass attempt) has dropped considerably from 5.0 to 3.8. Comparatively, Matt Hasselbeck leads the NFL with an 8.3 TD%. That likely means they are settling for more field goals than last year. Another stat that would support that theory is that the Cards are 29th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate, sporting a nasty 25% success rate. Show me a team struggling to convert third downs, and I'll show you a team struggling to sustain drives and likely struggling in the red zone.

It would be easy to point the finger at the Cardinals anemic running game, but they ranked dead last in the NFL last season, so even dropping from 3.5 YPC to 3.2 is not all that noteworthy since it clearly is not the key to their success.

Remember all the talk about how Matt's game this week was somehow expected against a Jags team that is last in the NFL in sacks and 31st in pass defense? The Cardinals defense ranks dead last in the NFL in pass defense, allowing over 300 yards/game! They rank 25th in sacks. Their run defense is excellent.

At first glance, our strengths match up with their weaknesses. The Hawks boast the 7th ranked NFL 3rd down defense, and we just saw what our passing game looks like with Matt clicking. It's hard to feel confident when you're facing a trio of receivers like the Cards throw out there when our best corner is still out, but there are reasons for optimism.

First Reactions: Hawks Beat Jags 41-0

2009-10-11T21:47:00.000-07:00

This game was a little different from the beginning. I could have sworn I saw a thick red glob of blood running down Owen Schmitt's forehead after he banged his helmet into his head, but the big screen cut away before I could be sure. No video I have seen captures what I saw as the wound was initially inflicted. It doesn't much matter as everyone got to see the Hawks treat the Jags the way Schmitt treats his forehead.

There was lots to talk about in this game. Matt Hasselbeck returning with a 4 TD, 0 INT game. TJ Houshmandzadeh breaking out with two TDs. But the thing that jumped out most was the ferocity with which our defense got after the quarterback. FINALLY!

We saw blitzes from multiple angles. We saw pressure from a four-man rush. There were QB hurries, QB hits, QB sacks, QB fumbles and even QBs getting steam-rolled by defensive ends acting like running backs.

Daryll Tapp was a revelation today. Patrick Kerney who? Tapp was constantly in the backfield. He ends up with four QB hits, 2 tackles for loss, a sack and the statistically hidden feat of setting the tone for this defense. Tapp was not alone. Lofa Tatupu stood out from the stands. I was shocked when I got home to see he was only credited with eight tackles. The guy was everywhere today. His protege made a huge impact as well. Aaron Curry once again forced a crucial QB turnover (it's great to see he has a knack for causing turnovers when he does get to the QB), and made countless ferocious hits while leading the team in tackles. Curry played his most confident game. Let's hope he can build on it.

And what would a review of the Seahawks defense be without mentioning Nick Reed? He should have been credited with two sacks (the second was given to Josh Wilson), and applied pressure whenever he was in the game. This guy makes plays every time he is on the field. Not most of the time. E-v-e-r-y time. And it's not just pressuring the QB. He pursues the ball carrier with the same passion as he does the QB. Someone more clever than me needs to nickname this kid because he's something special.

The best player on the Seahawks defense in 2009? Lawrence Jackson. He put together another solid outing, including his team-leading fourth sack. His effort has been undeniable, and the results have been outstanding.

The offense didn't play quite as magnificently as the score indicates. The defense had the Jags pinned back all afternoon, giving the Hawks offense excellent field position. That said, they scored TDs, not FGs. Matt, after starting 10-19 with zero TDs, finished 8-11 with 4 TDs. Housh's demeanor was better, even back into the pre-game warmup where he was shadow boxing with his rave green gloves. We need more of that from him. Carlson was forced to stay in and protect Matt more than normal, but Burleson and Housh more than made up for it.

Justin Forsett finished the game with a 7.2 YPC average, which raises his season YPC total to 5.6. Can we stop dicking around here, and just declare him the starter? The guy is far and away our best runner, our best receiver (out of the backfield), and a great blocker. He is worth at least a full yard per carry more than Julius Jones. I hope they recognize that soon and make the switch. Forsett as a starter doesn't mean we become a fantastic rushing team, but it makes us better. With every other obstacle we are facing, ignoring something that makes you better is unacceptable.

Lastly, I'd give a little plug to our battered kicker, Olindo Mare. He got us on the board with a 47-yard FG into the wind toward the always challenging North end zone. It was a foot note in a blow out, but it got us moving in the right direction.

Nice win.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 4

2009-10-08T07:32:00.000-07:00

Barely finding time to sleep lately. Sorry for the sparse posts. Here's the updated power rankings:

GAME THREAD: Hawks @ Colts

2009-10-04T08:29:00.000-07:00

Game thread open for the day. No time for analysis... Hope to see you all in a bit...

You can join the live chat here.

Enter as Guest. Only Seahawks fans welcome. All others will be booted.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 3

2009-09-29T06:55:00.000-07:00

The Hawks continue to drop like a rock, from #1 two weeks ago to #15 in week three. Being out of the Top 10 of these rankings by week three is not a good omen. By this point in the season, these rankings become quite predictive of playoff entry. Taking a look at the Top 10 now, I'd guess that is true again this season. Denver certainly may be inflated by lousy competition, but their performance has been pretty darn impressive nonetheless.

First Reactions: Hawks lose 25-19

2009-09-27T20:25:00.000-07:00

Growing up a Seahawks, Mariners and Trail Blazers fan has led to heartache on many occasions. I've learned to steel myself against the pain and frustration by trying to call a spade a spade, and not kid myself into thinking my team is better than it is. To that end, I give you the 2009 Seattle Seahawks, down 9 starters after three games, and likely already playing for next season. A victory today, no matter how flawed, would have meant the glimmer of hope remained for 2009. Similarly, a loss, no matter how hard fought, destines us for a certain 1-3 and likely 1-4. And folks, this is the easy part of our schedule.

Now, as I throw cold water on any of you optimists out there, I will say this: I thought we should have waived Lawrence Jackson to start this season. Eating crow is welcomed when it means I've underestimated my team or its players.

There are no moral victories today, but there were some clear heroes and goats.

HEROES

David Hawthorne - Heater played a winning game today. 16 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF (nullified by the worst officiating decision of this short season). We explain away why Lofa and other LBs end up with 5-6 tackles, but Hawthorne proves that a willing LB can be in on more plays behind this line.
Nate Burleson - 9 rec 109 yards and countless tough catches
Julius Jones - Played a man's game. Fought for tough yards, including a memorable push on a 3rd and 1. Was underutilized.
Aaron Curry - Curry barely makes the list because he made a huge play rushing the QB and forcing a key fumble. He made some head-slapping misses in the open field, but gave us a little ray of hope for better play to come.
Offensive line - The fill-ins played admirably. The Bears were bringing it all game, and they protected well and run blocked well.

GOATS

Olindo Mare - Two missed FGs, lose by six points. Nuff said.
Greg Knapp - Trick play on a critical 3rd and 1, 19 carries for Julius Jones who was averaging over 6 YPC most of the game, and a running play on a makable 3rd down before halftime.
Officials - Overturning that forced fumble decided the game. They took away a great play that the team desperately needed and deserved for no reason. No angle showed anything conclusive. Just a horrible call at a horrible time.
Housh - I've been a huge fan, but he lost me this week leaving Matt out there to dry and complaining about the lack of balls thrown his way. His fumble was inexcusable. Secure the ball.

GAME THREAD: Hawks vs. Bears

2009-09-27T09:01:00.000-07:00

It's not really worth analyzing this game today. A win requires excellent coaching, dominating performances from at least a few of our remaining best players (Kerney, Housh, Carlson), and a sub-par day from the Bears.

Seneca is a strength going into the game, not a weakness. I would still prefer to have Matt, but I continue to think Seneca gives a great chance to win when he plays.

Since I have been traveling all week, and will be for the next 3-4, I'll be home during the game today, so you can join the live chat here. I'm looking forward to the new jerseys.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 2

2009-09-22T06:48:00.000-07:00

We are one week from where these rankings really start to be predictive. The Hawks fell from #1 to #12 this week. Finding a way to break the Top 10 by Week 3 is strongly recommended.

Question Matt? Start With Knapp First

2009-09-21T11:29:00.000-07:00

I am disgusted with the amount of discussion I am reading and hearing (ESPN, KIRO, KJR, etc) about whether Matt Hasselbeck made an irresponsible decision diving for the goal line considering he knew his health condition and his importance to the team. Before anyone should question our team leader for doing everything he could to get points on the board for his team, how about we take a step back and ask why the hell he was forced to make that decision in the first place?

Rewind to 1st & 10 at the SF 18 with 1:08 left in the 2nd quarter. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp calls a running play to Justin Forsett that results in a 14 yard gain. It was a tough run dragging people between the tackles. Timeout Seahawks. Fifty-seven seconds left in the half with one timeout left.

It's now 1st & Goal at the 4 yard line. Julius Jones comes in for Forsett. Screeeeeech! Why? What happened to going with the hot hand? If Jones wasn't good enough to unseat Duckett last year at the goal line, why in the world is he good enough to sub in for the guy that just dragged defenders down to the 4?

Alright, well I can chalk that up to personal bias a bit. We'll surely keep the ball on the ground, right? We've been beaten up to this point and have a chance to gain some psychological recovery by running it down SF's throat into the endzone. The ball is snapped and....what the hell?!?!? It's a pass play. There is no excuse to call a pass in that situation. If Hasselbeck audibled to it based on something he saw, okay, but I saw no evidence of that. The pass falls incomplete.

Now it's 2nd & Goal from the 4 with 0:53 seconds left. Plenty of time to redeem yourself with 1 or 2 runs and a timeout to spare. Instead, what's this? Matt is rolling out to pass again?!?!?! Worse yet, the play yielded no open receivers and Matt is forced to improvise. He sees a seam and goes for the goal line. Great. Now we've got zero points and possibly lost out franchise player for the season.

On 3rd down, we pass yet again, and this time get our lone TD for the game. You can't criticize a TD, but I'll say that if we want to be a "snot bubble" tough team, we better never see these guys call three passes from the four yard line again, especially after reeling off a 14 yard run the play before.

Shame on you Mr. Knapp. This is on you.

First Reactions: Hawks lose 23-10

2009-09-20T16:00:00.000-07:00

The best thing I can say is that we may have a better record than the 49ers the next time we play them due to schedule differences. Unfortunately, I can't say we'll be a better team.

WHAT I LEARNED TODAY

The Seahawks defense is not above average. It looks very much like what we saw last season. Injuries play a part in that, but the scheme is far from the attacking style we kept hearing about. Our players are rarely in the opposing backfield or coming free on blitzes.
It's time to realize that Forsett gives us the best chance to win and sit Julius Jones down. Jones has not made a single play that I don't think Forsett would have made. Forsett, though, has made at least a couple plays every game that Jones would not make.
Our offense has no rhythm. Yes, we scored 28 points last week, but it was not exactly in a repeatable fashion.
Lawrence Jackson may be worth keeping around
David Hawthorne is not Lofa Tatupu
The 49ers may win this division, but are not a threat to win even a single playoff game. Any team with a reliable offense beats this team.
Outside of the 79 and 80 yards runs, the other 27 runs went for 97 yards and a 3.59 YPC. You can't take away those big plays because they happened, but it's amazing what that does.
I think Housh is a ticking time bomb. He seems pissed.

This loss makes our road schedule all the more daunting. It's not inconceivable that we go winless on the road, even if we recover and start playing better. A win against Chicago becomes critical to keep the season moving forward, or we stare 1-3 in the face with a game @Indy next.

GAME THREAD: Hawks @ 49ers

2009-09-20T09:42:00.000-07:00

I'll be hosting live online chat during the game today. No software necessary. Just CLICK HERE TO ENTER.

Login as a guest with any name. I will let you in once I sit down for the game, likely around 12:55.

I'll also be tweeting today:

Things To Look For On Sunday Vs. 49ers

2009-09-20T09:15:00.000-07:00

The Hawks and the media seem to have a pretty good feel for this game. Nobody is expecting to walk into SF and come out with an easy victory. Mike Singletary has his team playing hard and physical and we will learn a lot about the Hawks in this environment, against this team.

The Hawks have a brutal road schedule. This is one of only two games (@Rams being the other) where you could say winning is not a long shot. This game likely will determine whether the Hawks will need to go 8-0 or 7-1 at home to have a realistic chance at 10 or more wins. Losing does not end the season, but winning gives us a little early breathing room.

WHAT TO WATCH

Toughness
The 49ers come into this game with the perceived edge in toughness. They have a nearly insane coach who has been going gladiator with his team since Day 1 of training camp. They went into the defending NFC Champs house on opening day and beat them down. They run into a wall and keep running. The Seahawks want to shed their finesse label and be perceived as a beat down sort of team. This is step one toward earning that reputation. Go into a tough teams house and set the tone. I am perhaps least confident about this aspect of the game. Nothing would get me more pumped than to see the Seahawks be the aggressors.

Precision/Control
If the game is truly a "snot bubble" affair, it won't be the prettiest thing you've ever seen, but that doesn't mean it can't be handled professionally. Matt has thrown some really questionable balls against Denver, KC and now STL. We need him to manage the game well, the o-line to protect and the running backs to secure the ball. This part of the game will be measured by turnovers and third down conversions.

Linebacker Play
This includes the D-line as well because if they are doing their jobs, the LBs should be able to do theirs. We need Aaron Curry to play a great, physical game and for Lofa to be near double-digit tackles. Someone will need to run with Vernon Davis, too.

Screen Passes
Don't forget that Leonard Weaver beat the 49ers with two long TD catches last season in SF. Justin Forsett could have a breakout game today if the screen passes are open.

Deon Butler
After planning for John Carlson, Houshmandzadeh, Burleson, and Jones, it's unlikely Butler will even get a mention in the 49ers prep. It could be a single play where Butler streaks across the field and away from defenders, or it could be a repeated beating, but I think Butler could be our secret weapon this week.

Josh Wilson
He was great last week. Can he do it again?

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Unpredictable Blogging Schedule

2009-09-20T09:10:00.000-07:00

Crazy week over here. There has been no time for blogging. I will be traveling for business the next 4-8 weeks, and will likely be working into the wee hours of the night. This will either mean I'll be blogging twice as much as normal or very little...or both.

Just wanted to give my faithful four readers a heads-up.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 1

2009-09-15T07:25:00.000-07:00

Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach is simple, I measure offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" is as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)

The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success. Even in the first week of the 2008 season, 5 of the top 10 ranked teams were playoff bound. As with any statistic, it becomes more meaningful as the sample size grows. Usually, these become most meaningful after Week 3. In 2007, 9 of the top 10 ranked teams were playoff teams, with the lowest ranked playoff team coming in at #15. In 2008, 8 the top 10 were playoff teams, with Arizona being the lowest ranked playoff team at #19. I'm not sure any formula could have predicated their run.

If you'd like to see how teams rankings changed from 2007 to 2008, you can read more here.

I have switched over to sharing the rankings via Google Docs, so hopefully, they are still readable.

Without further delay, here are the first rankings of 2009. It is the first time that the Seahawks have ever been #1. Bask in the glow!