The Seahawks are in trouble. It would be easy to look at a close loss to the undefeated 49ers and come to the conclusion that they are just a few adjustments away from being the best team in football. Try not throwing an interception on your first pass attempt for the second straight game. Try not throwing an interception on your first pass attempt of the opening drive of each half. Maybe consider not fumbling the ball when nobody is near you or at your own goalline. The mistakes were plentiful. The solutions are not. Seattle has a championship level defense, and a losing offense. Dark Side defense, meet The Phantom Offense. May the force be with you.

Jar Jar Binks was more composed and had fewer pratfalls than this Seahawks offense. Sam Darnold has been the worst version of himself. It is confounding how he could have taken this large of a step backwards after getting the chance to play with largely the same players in the same scheme for the first time in many years. The idea was that winning a Super Bowl would get the monkey off his back and allow him to step forward into an even high tier of play. Instead, he looks like the guy we witnessed against the Rams in Week 11 last season. Except, on repeat.

Some will say it the loss of Kenneth Walker III and the run game. They are wrong. Of course a healthy run game would be helping Darnold and the whole offense, but the Seahawks run offense last season was among the worst in the NFL through 10 weeks (and really through 15 weeks), and Darnold was the top passer in the NFL by almost any metric during that early stretch. Saying Darnold needs a good run game is a simplistic trope that has already been disproven. If only it was that easy.

The run game has nothing to do with the poor decisions Darnold is making every game. He threw into double coverage to Rashid Shaheed again, after doing it in Washington a few weeks back. He is forcing the ball into covered receivers. Watching the person who has your team’s fate in their hands repeatedly make poor decisions leads to a hopeless resignation that can spiral. Darnold may have the highest spin rate in the NFL, but this is one spiral he needs to stop.

We are left wondering why this is happening. There are those who will say he has always been this player and is just returning to form. Others will wonder if his injury is contributing to problems. My mind goes to the connection between him and new offensive coordinator, Brian Fleury.

They do not appear to have hit it off on a personal level, and continue to try to feel each other out on the field. This is not to say there is animosity or tension between the two, but there are no signs that they have developed a strong bond.

Great coordinators give their quarterbacks answers at all times. Darnold’s answers feel both incomplete and insufficient. He is one of the best deep ball passers in the game. He is excellent under center. He is excellent on play action. When Darnold was dealing over the first half of last season, there was a great mix of quick reads and explosive passing. The explosives are still showing up, but the quick reads are gone and are leading to far more volatilty.

Darnold came in to 2025 intent on getting rid of the ball faster than he ever had in his career. That fell off after his performance in Los Angeles, but somewhat returned in the playoffs. His time to throw has reverted to his pre-Seahawks days, and is far slower than any time last season.

Sam Darnold: Time to Throw Quick early in 2025, slower late, slower still in 2026

2025 Wks 1-10

2025 Wks 11-18

2025 Playoffs

2026 So far

Getting it out

Avg time to throw	2.66 s	2.80 s	2.72 s	3.07 s
Out in under 2.5 s	51.5%	43.9%	40.7%	38.8%
Held 3.5 s or longer	16.7%	21.1%	16.5%	23.5%

Pressure

Clean-pocket timing has barely moved. Pressured plays are lasting longer.

Pressured Share of dropbacks	24.2%	26.0%	28.6%	39.8%
Time to throw, clean	2.48 s	2.51 s	2.65 s	2.59 s
Time to throw, pressured	3.22 s	3.61 s	2.92 s	3.81 s

Context

Throws Sacks not included	227	246	91	98
Avg depth of target Yards	9.3	6.7	8.9	6.7

Source: Sumer Sports charting · regular season unless noted

2026 is 3 full games plus 2 throws in Week 1. Drew Lock threw the rest of Weeks 1-2.

Time to throw = snap to releaseHAWKBLOGGER

Notice that he was throwing both more quickly and further down the field (9.3 yard average depth of target) in the first 10 weeks of last season. That is almost the holy grail of quarterback play. Deeper throws usually require more time to develop and drive up time to throw. Seattle was getting the best of both worlds for that stretch. It came back again in the playoffs, albeit a little slower.

What are the things that contribute to a quarterback holding onto the ball longer? The initial reads on the play are well covered, which requires the QB to go further into his progressions. The pass protection is breaking down quickly, requiring the QB to scramble and find space to make a throw. Locking onto one read for too long can cause a QB to miss the timing window for secondary and tertiary reads. Overall discomfort in the offense or confusion about what the defense is presenting can lead to more indecision. There is evidence that all of these things might be occurring. One curious trend is how much Darnold and the offense has struggled against man coverage compared to last season.

Sam Darnold vs. Man Coverage Man coverage went from a strength to his biggest problem. Zone held steady.

Against man +0.275→−0.600 EPA per dropback · 2025 → 2026

Against zone +0.116→+0.048 EPA per dropback · 2025 → 2026

2025

2026

Change

Against man

Almost every number fell off a cliff.

Dropbacks	107	24
Completion %	67.3%	42.9%	−24.4 pts
Yards per attempt	8.98	3.10	−5.88
EPA per dropback	+0.275	−0.600	−0.875
Success rate	57.9%	20.8%	−37.1 pts
TD / INT	10 / 5	3 / 1
Sack rate	4.7%	12.5%	+7.8 pts
Pressured	28.0%	58.3%	+30.3 pts
Time to throw	2.59 s	2.95 s	+0.36 s
Avg depth of target Yards	9.2	6.7	−2.5

Against zone

Steady. Zone isn't the problem.

Dropbacks	378	82
Completion %	69.5%	71.2%	+1.7 pts
Yards per attempt	8.80	9.14	+0.34
EPA per dropback	+0.116	+0.048	−0.068
Success rate	52.1%	51.2%	−0.9 pts
Pressured	29.9%	41.5%	+11.6 pts

How teams play man against him

Share of his man dropbacks, except the first row

Dropbacks in man LAC and SF: 29.5%	20.7%	21.8%	+1.1 pts
Man with a blitz	56.1%	62.5%	+6.4 pts
Cover 0 Man, no deep safety	15.0%	33.3%	+18.3 pts
Man on third down	36.4%	58.3%	+21.9 pts

Source: Sumer Sports coverage charting · nflverse play results · regular season

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles. 2026 is Weeks 3-5 plus 3 dropbacks in Week 1. Plays Sumer charts as situational coverage are left out of man and zone.

Green = better for Seattle, red = worseHAWKBLOGGER

Darnold was eating man coverage alive last season. It has been absolute poison this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is certainly not worse than a year ago. It may be that defenses are deciding they do not respect the other targets and are giving safety help on Smith-Njigba. This feels like a problem with the play designs and the offensive coordinator. They should have answers against man coverage. Rub routes, screens, and featuring players who excel in beating man coverage like Tory Horton Jr. would seem to be available.

The pressure numbers, however, jump off the page. Seattle is getting worse line play from Abe Lucas and Grey Zabel in pass protection compared to a year ago. It is not clear why that is the case. Neither have been listed as having injuries.

One area that came up when studying the differences between Klint Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan this offseason, as a way to anticipate where Fleury might be different, was how often Shanahan sent players out in routes versus keeping players in to help in protection. Kubiak had more max protect plays dialed up. Early indications are that might be something to revisit.

Seattle: Routes vs. Protection Seattle keeps a seventh blocker in half as often. Route counts barely moved.

2025 Wks 1-10

2025 Wks 11-18

2026 Wks 1-2

2026 Wks 3-5

Every Seattle dropback

Screens excluded

Dropbacks	225	258	48	94
Players in routes Average per dropback	4.53	4.49	4.60	4.59
Max protection 7+ blockers, 3 or fewer routes	11.6%	11.2%	2.1%	5.3%

Source: Sumer Sports charting · regular season

Drew Lock played most of Weeks 1-2. Darnold played Weeks 3-5. The 10 non-QB players on each dropback either run a route or block.

Chips (backs and tight ends who block, then release) count as routesHAWKBLOGGER

While the number of players in routes is largely the same as last season, the percentage of max protect calls is less than half what it was under Kubiak. That is putting more stress on the offensive line, and they have not held up. This is not enough to explain all of the line struggles, but adding a few more snaps per game where they are getting extra help might be worth exploring.

Another thing that showed up was that Shanahan played a lot more shotgun and Kubiak had more under center snaps. Darnold was an assassin under center and had some weakness in shotgun. The question was whether Fleury would lean into Darnold’s strength or try to incorporate more shotgun and see if he could elevate Darnold’s performance from that formation.

He has largely kept Darnold at the same under center rate as last season on pass plays. The split remains massive between how he performs in each.

Darnold: Under Center vs Shotgun Dropbacks by alignment. Shotgun includes pistol. Ranks among NFL QBs.

2025 season 514 dropbacks

Under center

Edge

Shotgun

Share of dropbacks NFL: 18% / 82%	33%		67%
EPA per dropback NFL: +0.14 / +0.02	6th+0.32		23rd+0.04
Success rate NFL: 50% / 45%	7th55%		4th51%
Yards per attempt NFL: 7.9 / 6.9	2nd10.7		10th7.5
INT rate NFL: 2.0% / 2.2%	21st3.8%		31st2.6%

Source: Sumer Sports alignment, nflverse EPA · Regular season

2026 through Week 5

110 dropbacks

Share of dropbacks NFL: 21% / 79%	35%		65%
EPA per dropback NFL: +0.11 / +0.05	21st-0.03		28th-0.14
Success rate NFL: 50% / 44%	4th59%		31st37%
Yards per attempt NFL: 7.6 / 7.0	4th9.9		20th6.6
INT rate NFL: 1.7% / 2.2%	32nd9.1%		28th3.1%

Source: Sumer Sports alignment, nflverse EPA · Regular season

Bar sits on the side that ranks better. Length = size of the gap.HAWKBLOGGER

A hidden challenge in this for Fleury is that even if Darnold is best under center, it also where he is turning the ball over more and getting sacked. Three of the sacks against the Niners came on under center dropbacks. Teams have almost eliminated the bread-and-butter bootleg game.

It might seem off to spend this much time on the quarterback when the running backs are the ones who fumbled three times, including one that turned into a defensive touchdown. The reality is that passing offense, and the play of your quarterback has a far higher impact on the performance of your team than the backfield. Darnold is also a former top draft pick and Super Bowl winner who is going to be up for a massive contract extension. George Holani is an undrafted free agent and Emanuel Wilson was as well. The problem in the backfield is likely solved by different players. The hope is that the problem at the quarterback position is solved without needing to change players.

The offensive staff needs to problem solve a group that is allowing more pressure, struggling to open up holes in the run game, struggling to make quick and low risk reads, and struggling to hold onto the football.

A logical place to start is the turnovers. This defense paired with an offense that does not turn the ball over will beat most opponents, even if they only score 17-20 points per game. It will be ugly. There will be a lot of punting. But it is the most direct path to winning and stopping the bleeding. Darnold can be coached to get rid of the ball quicker and take more throwaways when his first read is not there. The running backs can be coached to protect the ball or take a seat. Seattle is likely one week away from getting Zach Charbonnet back, who does not fumble. They are also a week away from getting Anthony Bradford back from injured reserve, which should help the run game.

Reducing or eliminating the turnovers will not be enough to beat elite teams. The Broncos are not elite this season. The Chiefs might be. With a game in four days, that is the change to prioritize.

A defense playing this well can get you to the playoffs with a mediocre offense. Beating the best teams in the league requires more. The path to being a good offense is unclear. Maybe Charbonnet and Bradford come back and are a big boost. Maybe Jadarian Price comes back and addresses his ball security issues and is a boost. Maybe the offensive line starts to play better or Darnold gets more comfortable in the offense. Maybe Fleury learns his personnel better and acclimates to play calling in a way that unlocks some consistency and sustainability.

None of that is a given. A lot of things need to fall into place for the Seahawks offense to be good enough for this team to be a true contender. It is early in the season, but the urgency is high. They have lost multiple games that they should have won. The 49ers will almost certainly be better the next time Seattle faces them. Nick Bosa may be back. Their fullback will be back. Their wide receivers may be back. They may add another edge rusher via trade. And they have a significant cushion now to play with.

There will be those who compare this to the 3-2 start last season that included a home loss to the 49ers, or to the Week 11 loss to the Rams. Those are superficial comparisons. The Seahawks were playing inspired and high level football in weeks two through five last year. Their loss to the Bucs was largely due to injuries to a defense we knew was elite. There are no signs this Seahawks offense is elite, even at full health. The loss to the Rams came after Darnold and the offense had been lighting the league on fire for 10 weeks. They have only lit themselves on fire so far. The connection and accountability and work ethic that made them champions last season will certainly be counted on to help this year, but the work to be done is significantly different.

Weeping about the loss to the 49ers serves no purpose. Worrying about the division race or the playoffs is pointless. Seattle needs to look inward and get their house in order. The path ahead is treacherous. Survival is not guaranteed. Adversity is here. This team has always responded when times are tough. The story of this season is being written. The first chapter has felt more like Ned Stark getting executed in Game of Thrones than Luke Skywalker meeting Obi-Wan Kenobi. The next chance to chance to advance the plot comes against an old foe in Denver in a few days.

This preview will highlight every statistical edge one way or another. What transcends the numbers is the bitterness of this rivalry between fan bases and between locker rooms. The 49ers saw their season end in humiliating fashion in this building. It was over from the opening kickoff. The rout was so impressive, it played a role in the Khosla family deciding to sell their stake in the 49ers and become the new owners of the Seahawks.

49er players have made it no secret that this game was circled on their schedule. They will feature some players who were injured in that contest like Fred Warner and George Kittle. They also have some new faces like Mike Evans and some old/new faces in Dre Greenlaw and Deebo Samuel. Their offense is red hot, tops in the NFL. Brock Purdy is getting MVP chatter and has yet to be sacked through four games.

Seahawks fans have seen this before.

Purdy was scoring 5 TDs a game and the offense was averaging 42.3 points when they hosted the Seahawks for a chance to win the division and top seed in the NFC. They played Seattle in 2 of the next 3 games and averaged 4.5 points, without a single touchdown.

Even in the Week 1 loss to the 49ers last season, it took two really poor plays from Riq Woolen to allow the 49ers to score 17 points. Purdy threw two interceptions in that game and was under pressure at a rate that was the highest of his career. That was also not unique.

Purdy goes from a 94th percentile quarterback when playing anyone else, to the equivalent of Desmond Ridder when playing a Mike Macdonald defense. He has 6 touchdowns and 9 interceptions over his career against Macdonald. He has thrown an interception in four straight games versus Seattle. Even though he is one of the best in the game at evading pressure, he has been under duress a lot when Macdonald is on the other sideline.

Purdy loves throwing over the middle with crossing routes. It is his second-most targeted route, and he kills people with a +0.46 epa per dropback efficiency and 10.7 yards per target. Against Macdonald, that route drops to -0.60 epa per dropback and 3.3 yards per target. He also loves throwing out routes (20% of his targets). Macdonald drops those from +0.44 epa per dropback to -0.07.

All quarterbacks have comfort zones and favorite throws. Macdonald has forced Purdy away from his comfort zone and he has not had a counter to that yet.

None of that means the 49ers will come into this game intimidated. Kyle Shanahan has had a full offseason to figure out how to attack this defense. Macdonald deployed a lot of Cover 6 shells against the 49ers. San Francisco has showed considerable improvement against that coverage this season (-0.10 epa/dropback to +0.56). He also used a lot of Cover 4. Shanahan and Purdy have improved there as well (+0.05 to +0.44).

The addition of Mike Evans has been huge (literally and figuratively). Seattle has struggled at times this season with contested catches down the field. It will be interesting if the Seahawks utilize a taller corner with proven ball skills like Trevon Diggs in this game.

Samuel has been a more dynamic player than he was during his last season in San Francisco. He has given Seattle trouble in the past. Shanahan deploys him as a runner and a receiver. One of the few places the Seahawks defense has struggled is against the screen pass. They rank 30th in the NFL in that category. The 49ers are 3rd in screen efficiency.

As much as the focus will be on Purdy and Shanahan versus Macdonald and the Dark Side defense, the key to the 49ers putting up points will probably come down to Christian McCaffrey on the ground and takeaways. Seattle smothered him last season, but he has far more efficient this year. If he has is getting 4-6 yards instead of 1-3 yards, this game will look very different than the ones that ended last season.

San Francisco has done well on defense in spite of a slew of injuries, but the have not taken the ball away very well. They have only two on the season, and rank 27th in that department. Their run defense was a question mark to begin with, and has been further impacted by injuries on the defensive line.

Warner and Greenlaw remain a dynamic duo at the second level. Their ability to defend the run and cover the middle of the field is arguably the biggest difference from the games to end last season. Throw in Kenneth Walker III being elsewhere, Zach Charbonnet not yet back from injury, and Jadarian Price on IR, and there is a real question whether Seattle has the horses to exploit the 49ers run defense.

That could leave a heavier burden on Sam Darnold and the passing game. The good news for Seattle is the 49ers are near the bottom of the league in pressure rate and sack rate, and Nick Bosa will not be playing this week. Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are a lot to handle from a clean pocket. Tory Horton Jr. was also not available last year, and brings a lot to the table.

One of the most fascinating aspects of this chess match will be how Shanahan will handle the absence of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The 49ers run 21 personnel (a fullback and a running back) more than any offense in the NFL. It is their bread-and-butter, and they wreak havoc when they deploy it. There are not many examples of Shanahan having to play without his fullback. The last substantial example was back in 2019, when he missed four straight games.

Generally, Shanahan has stopped using it entirely, and resorts to 12 personnel (two tight ends). The problem there is that Jake Tonges is their second tight end and he’s on injured reserve. There is a substantial drop-off to Luke Farrell.

While this would seem to be an advantage for the Seahawks, it does provide far more mystery and uncertainty for Macdonald in the game plan. There is not a lot to go on. He may lean on former 49er tight end coach, Brian Fleury, to help think through how Shanahan would handle it and how to counter it.

My quantitative power rankings have the 49ers at #1 and the Seahawks at #2. They are neck-and-neck. Do not expect another 41-6 laugher. Do not expect the Seahawks to make the same mistakes on 3rd down with penalties like they have done the past two games. Look for both teams to deliver some of the best football the NFL has to offer. Seattle is the slight favorite for a reason.

NOTE: I am trying a different format this week with my analysis largely up above and a few notes/callouts below. My hope is this feels more cohesive, and the charts are largely self-explanatory. Please let me know what you think!

Lineup Notes

Keep an eye on Leonard Williams for the Seahawks, who left the game on Sunday with an ankle injury. Initial reports are positive, but his availability and health has massive implications on this game. Ty Okada may be back for his first game of the season. We will see if he regains his starting role.

Osa Odighizuwa was one of the best additions in the NFL this offseason. Gracen Halten is a disruptive interior rusher as well. Between those two, the interior defensive line is much more athletic than it was a year ago.

Upton Stout has a question mark with an AC joint sprain. He is a spark plug and physical presence despite his size. His absence would be felt. Malik Mustapha taking over for Marques Sigle is not a big step down. It is more of a different style of player. Mustapha is a big hitter and play maker. He is not the athlete Sigle is in coverage.

LiveSat, Oct 10 · 4 to 6 PM HB LIVE! Grant Cohn Joins Seahawks vs 49ers Preview Lowlander Brewing Come hang with Grant Cohn and me as we preview the 49ers game. Grab a beer and bring your takes. Get tickets

Team Overview

Seahawks vs 49ers SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

SCORING & TURNOVERS

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

49ERS

POINT DIFFERENTIAL	6th+8.0		1st+14.5
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL	9th+2.0		13th+1.0

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

EFFICIENCY

Offence minus what the defence allows

NET EPA / PLAY	7th+0.154		1st+0.278
NET SUCCESS RATE	6th+7.7%		3rd+9.2%
NET ESCAPE RATE	13th+0.4%		1st+23.6%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA

Season DVOA · the side-by-side matchup lives on the offense and defense graphics

TOTAL DVOA	6th+20.1%		1st+54.8%
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	17th+0.4%		22nd-3.4%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Styles Make Fights

Seahawks Offensive Style SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

49ERS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 57% of plays (16th) · 134 plays	25th-0.079		5th-0.079
PLAY ACTION 35% of dropbacks (2nd) · 44 plays	5th+0.375		22nd+0.209
SHOTGUN 66% of dropbacks (30th) · 84 plays	15th+0.110		17th+0.078
UNDER CENTER 34% of dropbacks (3rd) · 43 plays	5th+0.356		13th+0.036
SCREEN 10% of dropbacks (7th) · 13 plays	1st+0.723		21st+0.028
NO HUDDLE 2% of plays (28th) · 4 plays	9th+0.283		22nd+0.291

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Seahawks's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 42% of runs (5th) · 47 plays	26th-0.260		23rd-0.045
INSIDE ZONE 18% of runs (14th) · 20 plays	30th-0.417		27th+0.074
POWER 12% of runs (4th) · 14 plays	18th-0.119		19th+0.041
MAN 9% of runs (31st) · 10 plays	10th+0.001		15th-0.093

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense uses play action on 35% of dropbacks (2nd most), and it has worked: 5th in EPA (+0.375). The 49ers defense ranks 22nd against it (+0.209). However, the Seahawks have decreased their use of play action every week of the season.

Seattle being the best offense in the league at screen plays is new territory for Seahawks fans. The 49ers have struggled to defend them, which is hard to imagine with Warner and Greenlaw out there.

49ers Offensive Style SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

49ERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 80% of plays (2nd) · 178 plays	1st+0.281		2nd-0.153
PLAY ACTION 24% of dropbacks (17th) · 29 plays	7th+0.349		8th-0.049
SHOTGUN 66% of dropbacks (31st) · 80 plays	1st+0.509		7th-0.060
UNDER CENTER 34% of dropbacks (2nd) · 42 plays	1st+0.675		5th-0.149
SCREEN 10% of dropbacks (9th) · 12 plays	3rd+0.454		30th+0.278
NO HUDDLE 0% of plays (31st) · 1 play	13th+0.153		1st-1.092

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

49ers's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 36% of runs (8th) · 41 plays	15th-0.183		8th-0.249
INSIDE ZONE 19% of runs (13th) · 22 plays	15th-0.039		13th-0.151
MAN 15% of runs (24th) · 17 plays	6th+0.118		7th-0.295
POWER 6% of runs (14th) · 7 plays	6th+0.330		17th-0.002

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The 49ers offense uses screens on 10% of dropbacks (9th most), and they have worked: 3rd in EPA (+0.454). The Seahawks defense ranks 30th against them (+0.278). This could be a key aspect of this game.

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense

Overview

Seahawks Offense SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

49ERS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	10th26.2		3rd16.0
EPA / PLAY	13th+0.018		16th+0.013
SUCCESS RATE	13th44.4%		22nd45.3%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	10th10.3%		1st3.5%
ESCAPE RATE	23rd37.7%		9th37.4%
TURNOVERS	18th5		27th2
DVOA	16th-3.0%		5th-13.5%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	5th+39.9%		7th-5.5%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	30th-28.6%		7th-22.8%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 38% of snaps (30th) · 89 snaps · 72% pass	26th-0.117		15th+0.008
12 PERSONNEL 28% of snaps (11th) · 66 snaps · 59% pass	10th+0.113		19th+0.047
21 PERSONNEL 19% of snaps (4th) · 45 snaps · 31% pass	7th+0.105		12th-0.167
22 PERSONNEL 9% of snaps (4th) · 20 snaps · 20% pass	6th+0.295		9th-0.164

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Passing game

Seahawks Passing Game SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

PASSING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

49ERS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	10th+0.193		18th+0.068
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	5th51.2%		8th42.9%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	5th10.5%		3rd4.0%
COMPLETION %	6th65.3%		20th62.7%
INTERCEPTION RATE	22nd2.4%		28th0.7%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

5th+39.9%

7th-5.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	16th28.3%		24th25.8%
TIME TO PRESSURE	1st3.01s		16th2.60s
SACK RATE	12th4.7%		26th3.9%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	17th-0.341		13th-0.362
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	3rd+0.657		15th+0.300
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	13th44.1%		27th40.0%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 38% of snaps (30th) · 64 dropbacks	26th-0.159		14th+0.012
12 PERSONNEL 28% of snaps (11th) · 39 dropbacks	4th+0.416		17th+0.107
21 PERSONNEL 19% of snaps (4th) · 14 dropbacks	1st+0.623		12th-0.144

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is 49ers's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 36% of their snaps (10th) · 37 dropbacks	3rd+0.448		12th+0.108
NICKEL 57% of their snaps (18th) · 101 dropbacks	18th+0.039		24th+0.102
DIME 7% of their snaps (15th) · 15 dropbacks	14th+0.234		6th-0.310

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense ranks 1st in time to pressure (3.01s). The 49ers defense ranks 24th at creating pressure (25.8%) and 27th in quick pressures (40.0%).

From a clean pocket the Seahawks offense ranks 3rd (+0.657). Under pressure it falls to 17th (-0.341).

Receiving game

Cooper Kupp ranks 10th in DVOA among WR3s (+30.6%). The 49ers defense ranks 31st against WR3s (+44.5%).

LiveSat, Oct 10 · 4 to 6 PM HB LIVE! Grant Cohn Joins Seahawks vs 49ers Preview Lowlander Brewing Come hang with Grant Cohn and me as we preview the 49ers game. Grab a beer and bring your takes. Get tickets

Run game

Seahawks Run Game SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

RUNNING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

49ERS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	27th-0.147		16th-0.056
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	23rd38.2%		31st49.1%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	16th10.0%		1st2.8%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

30th-28.6%

7th-22.8%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	32nd18.2%		24th73.3%
STUFFED RATE	30th23.3%		21st14.9%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 38% of snaps (30th) · 26 rushes	9th+0.054		13th-0.014
12 PERSONNEL 28% of snaps (11th) · 28 rushes	27th-0.250		21st-0.001
21 PERSONNEL 19% of snaps (4th) · 31 rushes	12th-0.129		12th-0.173

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is 49ers's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 36% of their snaps (10th) · 56 rushes	22nd-0.171		14th-0.113
NICKEL 57% of their snaps (18th) · 46 rushes	10th+0.052		22nd+0.062
DIME 7% of their snaps (15th) · 2 rushes	25th-0.913		6th-0.050

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense ranks 30th in rush DVOA (-28.6%). The 49ers defense ranks 7th in run defense DVOA (-22.8%).

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Seahawks Defense SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

49ERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	2nd30.5		5th18.2
EPA / PLAY	1st+0.291		2nd-0.137
SUCCESS RATE	1st54.5%		2nd36.7%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	3rd14.0%		3rd5.7%
ESCAPE RATE	1st61.0%		8th37.3%
TURNOVERS	1st1		3rd7
DVOA	1st+44.6%		1st-22.6%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	1st+89.4%		4th-11.0%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	9th+2.6%		1st-37.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
21 PERSONNEL 42% of snaps (1st) · 93 snaps · 45% pass	5th+0.171		21st+0.004
11 PERSONNEL 32% of snaps (31st) · 71 snaps · 72% pass	1st+0.354		7th-0.121
12 PERSONNEL 15% of snaps (27th) · 34 snaps · 53% pass	2nd+0.401		1st-0.323
22 PERSONNEL 6% of snaps (7th) · 13 snaps · 46% pass	7th+0.246		5th-0.397

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Pass DVOA: the 49ers offense 1st (+89.4%) against the Seahawks defense 4th (-11.0%). Rush DVOA: the 49ers offense 9th (+2.6%) against the Seahawks defense 1st (-37.5%).

The 49ers offense has turned it over once (1st). The Seahawks defense has 7 takeaways (3rd).

The 49ers offense lines up in 21 personnel on 42% of snaps (1st most) and ranks 5th from it (+0.171). The Seahawks defense ranks 21st against it (+0.004). That will all look different without the 49ers fullback.

Pass game

Seahawks Pass Defense SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

PASSING

49ERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	1st+0.566		4th-0.078
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	1st62.3%		6th40.9%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	4th11.6%		1st3.7%
COMPLETION %	1st70.5%		9th57.8%
INTERCEPTION RATE	6th0.9%		1st4.4%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

1st+89.4%

4th-11.0%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	2nd20.3%		4th36.9%
TIME TO PRESSURE	24th2.49s		8th2.47s
SACK RATE	1st0.0%		10th7.4%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	1st+0.311		15th-0.314
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	1st+0.690		3rd+0.105
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	3rd37.5%		2nd56.9%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
21 PERSONNEL 42% of snaps (1st) · 42 dropbacks	5th+0.294		23rd+0.500
11 PERSONNEL 32% of snaps (31st) · 51 dropbacks	1st+0.558		9th-0.094
12 PERSONNEL 15% of snaps (27th) · 18 dropbacks	1st+0.854		5th-0.160

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells 49ers FACED · usage is Seahawks's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 16% of their snaps (29th) · 6 dropbacks	1st+0.802		23rd+0.332
NICKEL 68% of their snaps (10th) · 110 dropbacks	1st+0.410		4th-0.145
DIME 15% of their snaps (8th) · 32 dropbacks	8th+0.368		13th+0.048

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks defense ranks 4th at creating pressure (36.9%). The 49ers offense ranks 2nd in pressure rate allowed (20.3%) and has not given up a sack (0.0%, 1st).

From a clean pocket the 49ers offense ranks 1st (+0.690). Under pressure it still ranks 1st (+0.311). The Seahawks defense ranks 15th once it gets pressure (-0.314).

Receiving game

Mike Evans ranks 5th in DVOA among WR1s (+26.9%). The Seahawks defense ranks 21st against WR1s (+13.3%).

Christian McCaffrey ranks 11th in DVOA among RBs (+19.7%). The Seahawks defense ranks 23rd against RBs (+27.6%).

Running game

Seahawks Run Defense SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

RUNNING

49ERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	7th+0.048		5th-0.145
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	3rd49.1%		1st32.7%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	2nd16.4%		7th8.2%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

9th+2.6%

1st-37.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	16th66.7%		13th60.0%
STUFFED RATE	5th12.9%		3rd23.1%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
21 PERSONNEL 42% of snaps (1st) · 57 rushes	6th+0.140		11th-0.194
11 PERSONNEL 32% of snaps (31st) · 23 rushes	17th+0.016		9th-0.071
12 PERSONNEL 15% of snaps (27th) · 17 rushes	10th+0.009		2nd-0.381

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells 49ers FACED · usage is Seahawks's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 16% of their snaps (29th) · 33 rushes	11th-0.048		1st-0.405
NICKEL 68% of their snaps (10th) · 67 rushes	3rd+0.145		8th-0.111
DIME 15% of their snaps (8th) · 8 rushes	6th+0.641		10th+0.318

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in run defense DVOA (-37.5%). The 49ers offense ranks 9th in rush DVOA (+2.6%).

Special Teams

Seahawks Special Teams SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERALL Estimated points above average

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

49ERS

SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	17th+0.4%		22nd-3.4%
FIELD GOALS & XP	12th0.8		30th-4.2

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

SEAHAWKS KICKING & COVERING

KICKOFFS vs 49ERS KICK RETURN	27th-2.0		28th-2.4
PUNTING vs 49ERS PUNT RETURN	1st5.8		30th-2.8

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

SEAHAWKS RETURNING

KICK RETURN vs 49ERS KICKOFFS	30th-4.1		5th3.9
PUNT RETURN vs 49ERS PUNTING	13th0.0		11th1.3

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks rank 12th in field goals & XP (0.8). The 49ers rank 30th (-4.2).

The Seahawks rank 1st in punting (5.8). The 49ers rank 30th in punt return (-2.8).

Key to a 49ers win

McCaffrey is the straw that stirs the drink. If he can be productive, the 49ers will have a good shot in this one. They will also need to take away a weakened Seahawks run game.

Key to a Seahawks win

Keep the pressure on Purdy. As good as he is scrambling around, he will give Seattle chances to take the ball away. Darnold needs to be his best self. The 49ers do not give up explosive plays. He and Smith-Njigba will need to find a way to change that. If he can put up 25+ points, the Seahawks have a great chance to win another one against the 49ers.

Mike Macdonald was clear that he did not want the 2026 Seahawks squad to live in the past. There would be no talk of defending their Super Bowl championship, and the notion of “running it back” was replaced with the notion of “running it forward.” The idea was that every season and every team are independent entities. Seattle would not inherit their championship pedigree from the previous season. They would need to earn it all over again. What Macdonald did want to carry forward was the “way of life” they built in terms of their process, their identity, their connection to one another. A cursory glance at the Seahawks 3-1 record after their latest win against the Chargers might leave the impression that the transition has gone well. Peek below the surface and you see a team that is neither crisp nor disciplined in any of the three phases that made them a complete team a year ago. Few individual players or coaches can clearly state their performance has stepped forward, and some key players have taken a step back so far. The sky is not falling, but the forecast is cloudy. Macdonald was right to not live in the past. He has still has work to do, however, to build a bridge that allows their way of life to run forward.

It is rare to be critical of a team that intercepts the first pass of the game and builds leads of 27-6 and 30-13. Seattle properly dominated a decimated, hapless, and winless, Chargers team for much of this game. They also allowed them to crawl back to the point where Justin Herbert had the ball with a chance to tie the game before Uchenna Nwosu forced a fumble on a sack to end it. There was joy. There was pain.

The foreshadowing of a funky game came early, when Sam Darnold followed the Herbert first-play interception with one of his own. No game, dating back to at least 1978 when ESPN play-by-play data stops, has started with back-to-back interceptions on the first two plays of the game.

Los Angeles turned Darnold’s mistake into an early 3-0 lead. A muffed Chargers punt return allowed the Seahawks to take a lead they never relinquished on a nifty screen to new starting running back, Emanuel Wilson. Then the teams traded seven straight punts.

It was about to be eight straight until a gorgeous 28-yard pass from Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a 3rd and 16, keyed a touchdown drive that was capped off by a tantalizing 28-yard touchdown run by Rashid Shaheed.

Rookie first round pick, Jardarian Price, was put on injured reserve prior to the game. That opened the door for Wilson to be the primary back until Zach Charbonnet is healthy enough to return. It also gave Brian Fleury more reason to experiment with Shaheed in the backfield. His speed and elusiveness was on full display on the touchdown run.

Fleury was in San Francisco when the 49ers leaned on receiver Deebo Samuel out of the backfield when there were injuries to running backs. Samuel is a very different body type than Shaheed, as he is built to take more punishment. The lessons learned there may still apply here. Shaheed offers the explosiveness that Seattle currently lacks with Price out. It could make sense to get him 3-5 carries per game.

Putting him in the backfield also opens up more receiver snaps for Tory Horton Jr., who scored a touchdown later in the game. That continues a torrid touchdown start to his career.

Tory Horton scores like nobody else

Receiving TDs through 11 career games. Pass catchers who debuted in 2016 or later with 15+ catches in that span: 291 players.

	Player	Tgt	Rec	TD	TD/Rec	TD/Tgt
1	Tory HortonWR	26	17	6	35.3%	23.1%
2	Christian WatsonWR	47	29	7	24.1%	14.9%
3	Foster MoreauTE	21	17	4	23.5%	19.0%
4	David MooreWR	37	22	5	22.7%	13.5%
5	Jahan DotsonWR	57	32	7	21.9%	12.3%
6	Mecole HardmanWR	37	23	5	21.7%	13.5%
7	Dante PettisWR	40	24	5	20.8%	12.5%
8	Tez JohnsonWR	39	24	5	20.8%	12.8%
Seahawks callout
★	Daryl TurnerWR Career, 1984–87, 59 games	282	101	36	35.6%	12.8%

Games played counts every game a player took a snap. Turner’s row is his whole career, not his first 11 games. Through 11 games he had 6 TDs on 26 catches (23.1%).

Source: nflverse, Sumer Sports, Pro Football Reference · Regular seasonHAWKBLOGGER

Fleury is still learning his players and adjusting to injuries. More Horton and more Shaheed feel like lesson he may be learning. He seemed to come into this game with that thought as Seattle played more 11 personnel (3 WRs) than in any game so far this season.

This is a clip from the HB Daily newsletter that went out earlier this morning (subscribe for free below).

The Seahawks are not yet firing on all cylinders on offense. Darnold has looked less sure of his reads and less in command of his checkdowns. The offensive line has struggled in short yardage and to create a consistent push in the run game. And yet, the offense has scored 30+ points in three straight games for the first time since 2020. They are also outperforming the Klint Kubiak offense in its first four games from last season, at least in terms of points.

Few who have watched this offense this season would feel confident about how it is operating. They have yet to face a great defense, and have not found a reliable rhythm to their plays. Defenses appear to be keying on taking away the bootleg, which is a strength of Darnold’s and a foundational element of any Shanahan/Kubiak under center offense.

Darnold was on a historic rate of explosive passing through the first 10 games of last season. He was averaging 9.6 yards per pass after six weeks. He is at an acceptable 8.1 after two starts this season. The run game was highly inefficient and unproductive for most of last season. The hope was that the progress they made from Week 16 on would carry over into this season.

There are some signs that it has. They have averaged over 4 yards per carry in three of the four games so far, and rushed for over 130 yards twice. They did not eclipse 130+ rushing yards for a second time until Week 10 last season. But it has felt more middling than a true strength.The injury to Anthony Bradford may play some role in that given his strength as a run blocker.

If the Seahawks defense was playing to their standard, the offense would be under far less scrutiny. Fleury is new. Darnold missed two games. Their backfield has been in flux.

Some sloppy and undisciplined play from the defense has put more pressure on the offense to score. They have already allowed two teams to score 23+ points. Only three teams did that all of last season.

It largely tracks back to two problem areas: red zone defense and penalties.

Seattle has allowed teams to score touchdowns on 66.7% of the red zone trips so far. Just correcting that problem would go a long way toward righting the ship. Getting back to their 2025 red zone rate would have meant 1-2 fewer touchdowns this year, or eight fewer points allowed. That would drop their points allowed from 18.3 to 16.3.

Of course, there would be fewer red zone attempts if they would cut their penalties that are extending drives. It was a record-setting day against the Chargers, and not in a good way.

The Seahawks defense is shooting themselves in the foot with personal foul penalties. Seven of the 12 penalties the defense has been flagged for have been of the personal foul variety. Six of their penalties have come on 3rd down, extending drives that should have ended.

This game was marred by some overactive and poor officiating, but a number of the calls were the right ones, and things Seattle can change.

Macdonald was as frustrated as he has ever been following a win. You can be certain this will be a topic of conversation and focus this week.

As frustrating as it was to watch the toothless Commanders and Chargers offenses put up points on this defense, the underlying metrics and indicators say this is still a defense to be feared.

They are 5th in points allowed, 2nd in epa/play, 2nd in success rate, 1st in yards per play, and 3rd in opponent explosive play rate allowed. The pass rush woke up in this game. They had their highest pressure and sack rate of the season. The coverage was sticky. Ernest Jones IV and Drake Thomas were excellent.

The penalty problem will be addressed. There is every reason to trust this coaching staff and this locker room to clean that up. The red zone defense is more perplexing.

Nick Emmanwori was back to being a playmaker all over the field. He also seemed to be nursing some injuries. Trevon Diggs got his first snaps, and the role they carved out for him in dime packages was intriguing. Ty Okada should be back this week. Byron Murphy II has had two straight beastly performances.

There is reason to be annoyed. There is little reason to lose faith.

Seattle now turns its attention to a 49ers team that comes in without a loss while lighting up the league on offense. It is a perfect test for where this team stands. San Francisco is easily the best opponent Seattle will have faced this year. There might not be a single performance by the Seahawks in their first four games that would be good enough to beat this 49ers team. They will need to play their best ball of the year. That is less about doing something they have yet to do, and more about ceasing to do some things that have stood in their way, like penalties and turnovers.

Macdonald has wanted to run it forward. This week will be a test of his ability to deliver on that promise. Betting against an angry Macdonald and Dark Side defense is usually a losing proposition. The undercard is over. It is time for the main event.

LiveSat, Oct 10 · 4 to 6 PM HB LIVE! Grant Cohn Joins Seahawks vs 49ers Preview Lowlander Brewing Come hang with Grant Cohn and me as we preview the 49ers game. Grab a beer and bring your takes. Get tickets

Seattle got some tough news when running back Jadarian Price reinjured his chest in practice and was placed on injured reserve. Velus Jones Jr. was signed to the 53-man roster to take his place. Price was the most explosive back on the team through three weeks, but had also struggled with ball security. Zach Charbonnet opened his practice window, but is not eligible to play in a game until next week, and will likely need longer than that to be ready.

Emanuel Wilson and George Holani take the spotlight in the backfield in the meantime. They each bring different things, with Wilson having the most success as a starter when Josh Jacobs was injured for the Packers last season.

This Chargers team has struggled so much on offense that Seattle has reason to hope they will not need to score many points to win. Justin Herbert has the potential to get hot and make difficult throws. He has not taken to new offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel’s, offense yet. The pass protection has been awful as well.

Most national pundits expect a blowout Seahawks win. The oddsmakers have Seattle as more than a touchdown favorite. This game is more dangerous than that implies. The Seahawks defense needs to play to their standard. Sam Darnold needs to protect the football.

Lineup Notes

Not only is Price out, but the Seahawks elevated cornerback Trevon Diggs for the first time this season. It will be interesting to see how he is utilized as the corner room has played relatively well. Maybe there is some thought of using different players at deep safety or rotating Diggs in with Jobe of Nehemiah Pritchett. Julian Love is set to return after a one-game absence, and Ty Okada may make it back after missing the first three games of the year.

Los Angeles is missing both of their starting tight ends, and a lot of their offensive line. Ladd McConkey has been their best receiver, but he was hurt this week and is questionable for the game. Do-everything safety, Derwin James is also questionable.

Team Overview

Seahawks vs Chargers SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

SCORING & TURNOVERS

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

CHARGERS

POINT DIFFERENTIAL	7th+8.3		30th-10.7
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL	17th+0.0		17th+0.0

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

EFFICIENCY

Offence minus what the defence allows

NET EPA / PLAY	4th+0.207		30th-0.204
NET SUCCESS RATE	2nd+10.5%		26th-4.5%
NET ESCAPE RATE	9th+4.0%		14th+1.0%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA

Season DVOA · the side-by-side matchup lives on the offense and defense graphics

TOTAL DVOA	6th+19.6%		31st-34.9%
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	15th+1.0%		29th-7.6%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Every clear edge on this graphic belongs to the Seahawks, 5 of 7 rows. 2 are close enough to call even.The Seahawks rank 4th in net EPA per play (+0.207). The Chargers rank 30th (-0.204). The Seahawks rank 6th in total DVOA (+19.6%). The Chargers rank 31st (-34.9%).

Even with five takeaways in Buffalo last week, the Chargers are even in turnover differential on the season.

Styles Make Fights

Seahawks Offensive Style SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHARGERS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 59% of plays (14th) · 105 plays	21st-0.023		10th-0.034
PLAY ACTION 35% of dropbacks (3rd) · 35 plays	1st+0.545		18th+0.156
SHOTGUN 67% of dropbacks (29th) · 68 plays	10th+0.184		28th+0.267
UNDER CENTER 33% of dropbacks (4th) · 33 plays	2nd+0.493		4th-0.271
SCREEN 11% of dropbacks (6th) · 11 plays	2nd+0.446		20th-0.034
NO HUDDLE 2% of plays (29th) · 3 plays	7th+0.496		31st+1.107

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Seahawks's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 45% of runs (3rd) · 36 plays	25th-0.268		7th-0.323
INSIDE ZONE 16% of runs (15th) · 13 plays	30th-0.469		16th-0.179
POWER 15% of runs (3rd) · 12 plays	17th-0.151		19th+0.025
MAN 9% of runs (30th) · 7 plays	23rd-0.226		11th-0.142

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense uses play action on 35% of dropbacks (3rd most), and it has worked: 1st in EPA (+0.545). The Chargers defense ranks 18th (+0.156), middle of the pack against it. The Seahawks offense uses outside zone on 45% of runs (3rd most), though it has not worked: 25th in EPA (-0.268). The Chargers defense ranks 7th (-0.323), one of the better defenses against it.

The Seahawks offense uses power on 15% of runs (3rd most), with middling results: 17th in EPA (-0.151). The Chargers defense ranks 19th (+0.025), middle of the pack against it. Seattle uses under center on 33% of dropbacks (4th most), and it has worked: 2nd in EPA (+0.493). The Chargers defense ranks 4th (-0.271), one of the better defenses against it.

Keep an eye on the screen game, which came to life in Washington last week. The Seahawks offense ranks 2nd in screen EPA (+0.446), and the Chargers defense ranks 20th (-0.034).

Chargers Offensive Style SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

CHARGERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 78% of plays (3rd) · 138 plays	32nd-0.275		2nd-0.158
PLAY ACTION 27% of dropbacks (10th) · 28 plays	11th+0.196		9th-0.043
SHOTGUN 85% of dropbacks (5th) · 88 plays	28th-0.157		9th-0.042
UNDER CENTER 15% of dropbacks (28th) · 16 plays	24th-0.003		11th+0.012
SCREEN 5% of dropbacks (27th) · 5 plays	20th-0.400		31st+0.362
NO HUDDLE 5% of plays (18th) · 8 plays	28th-0.435		6th-0.363

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Chargers's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 36% of runs (9th) · 29 plays	26th-0.325		2nd-0.388
INSIDE ZONE 15% of runs (17th) · 12 plays	27th-0.395		13th-0.216
MAN 14% of runs (25th) · 11 plays	31st-0.610		3rd-0.412
PULL LEAD 9% of runs (5th) · 7 plays	15th-0.122		9th-0.416

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Chargers offense uses motion on 78% of plays (3rd most), and they have increased their use of motion more than any other team, though it has not worked: 32nd in EPA (-0.275). The Seahawks defense ranks 2nd (-0.158) against it.

Very little has gone right on offense for the Chargers. Play action is their strongest mark.

Seahawks Offense vs Chargers Defense

Overview

Seahawks Offense SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHARGERS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	13th25.0		20th25.3
EPA / PLAY	11th+0.051		19th+0.017
SUCCESS RATE	11th46.1%		19th45.2%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	13th9.6%		14th9.0%
ESCAPE RATE	18th39.8%		18th41.7%
TURNOVERS	19th4		2nd6
DVOA	15th-2.3%		25th+10.5%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	4th+52.1%		25th+24.0%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	30th-38.6%		24th-3.7%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 33% of snaps (31st) · 58 snaps · 83% pass	26th-0.175		28th+0.137
12 PERSONNEL 31% of snaps (8th) · 56 snaps · 62% pass	7th+0.196		25th+0.179
21 PERSONNEL 25% of snaps (4th) · 44 snaps · 30% pass	5th+0.145		3rd-0.709
22 PERSONNEL 6% of snaps (5th) · 11 snaps · 9% pass	3rd+0.698	NO PLAYS YET	no snaps

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Chargers rank second in takeaways, but 5 of those came in one game. They are a friskier defense than the numbers indicate. Their offense has left them on the field and playing from behind most games. One thing to watch is their success defending two-back sets (3rd), given the Seahawks have used that on 25% of snaps (4th-most).

Passing game

Seahawks Passing Game SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

PASSING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHARGERS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	5th+0.285		24th+0.135
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	4th52.5%		24th48.0%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	12th9.1%		19th9.1%
COMPLETION %	3rd68.7%		22nd62.6%
INTERCEPTION RATE	18th2.0%		9th3.0%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

4th+52.1%

25th+24.0%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	6th22.8%		21st26.5%
TIME TO PRESSURE	1st3.15s		27th2.84s
SACK RATE	4th3.0%		11th6.9%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	10th-0.125		30th+0.035
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	3rd+0.628		8th+0.200
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	13th43.5%		30th35.0%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 33% of snaps (31st) · 48 dropbacks	26th-0.126		28th+0.203
12 PERSONNEL 31% of snaps (8th) · 35 dropbacks	4th+0.509		28th+0.472
21 PERSONNEL 25% of snaps (4th) · 13 dropbacks	1st+0.797		2nd-0.848

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is Chargers's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 28% of their snaps (20th) · 17 dropbacks	2nd+0.617		14th+0.136
NICKEL 52% of their snaps (22nd) · 51 dropbacks	14th+0.106		17th+0.039
DIME 20% of their snaps (6th) · 34 dropbacks	19th-0.165		16th+0.279

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense ranks 6th in pressure rate allowed (22.8%) and 1st in time to pressure (3.15s). The Chargers defense ranks 21st at creating pressure (26.5%) and gets there in 2.84s (27th). Sack rate: 4th (3.0%) against 11th (6.9%).

On paper the protection wins this phase. Watch whether the Chargers defense has to blitz to get home. They have not been willing to blitz much this year, and the Seahawks have destroyed the blitz when teams bring it.

The Chargers defense lives in nickel, 52% of its snaps. The Seahawks offense ranks 14th (+0.106) against it and the Chargers defense ranks 17th (+0.039).

The Seahawks offense ranks 4th in pass DVOA (+52.1%). The Chargers defense ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA (+24.0%).

Receiving game

Cooper Kupp ranks 9th in DVOA among WR3s (+36.5%). The Chargers defense ranks 26th against WR3s (+38.3%). The Chargers have some decent coverage players. The equation changes drastically if James is out or hampered.

Run game

Seahawks Run Game SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

RUNNING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHARGERS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	30th-0.208		12th-0.073
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	21st39.2%		18th42.7%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	15th10.1%		12th9.0%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

30th-38.6%

24th-3.7%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	31st11.1%		16th66.7%
STUFFED RATE	29th22.7%		27th12.1%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 33% of snaps (31st) · 11 rushes	28th-0.228		26th+0.121
12 PERSONNEL 31% of snaps (8th) · 22 rushes	25th-0.233		13th-0.092
21 PERSONNEL 25% of snaps (4th) · 31 rushes	10th-0.129		3rd-0.535

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is Chargers's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 28% of their snaps (20th) · 37 rushes	21st-0.188		5th-0.285
NICKEL 52% of their snaps (22nd) · 48 rushes	15th+0.004		19th+0.029
DIME 20% of their snaps (6th) · 4 rushes	no rushes	NO PLAYS YET	14th+0.675

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Every clear edge on this graphic belongs to the Chargers. Seattle came out trying to challenge the Commanders run defense (1st in DVOA) and it did not work. Their run game has not been efficient so far this year. They will need the offensive line to hit their marks and move people more than they have done consistently. The absence of Anthony Bradford has been felt, especially in short yardage.

Chargers key advantages on defense

They have the guys to plug the run, and have some dangerous pass rushers in Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. Abe Lucas has had two rough games and one good one. The offense needs him to lock in.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has no equal. Do not be surprised if the Seahawks target him earlier in this one, and continue to increase the involvement of their tight ends and fullback. There are some healthy parts of this offense, but the play calling has tended to feature their underperforming run game. Darnold has had an offseason to connect with Rashid Shaheed. This might the game where it finally shows.

Chargers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Seahawks Defense SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

CHARGERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	29th14.7		3rd16.7
EPA / PLAY	31st-0.188		3rd-0.156
SUCCESS RATE	23rd40.7%		2nd35.6%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	16th9.0%		2nd4.0%
ESCAPE RATE	12th42.7%		7th35.8%
TURNOVERS	26th6		10th4
DVOA	26th-16.8%		3rd-20.9%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	20th+2.6%		9th-7.0%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	11th-2.1%		3rd-39.7%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 43% of snaps (29th) · 76 snaps · 76% pass	32nd-0.315		8th-0.114
21 PERSONNEL 31% of snaps (2nd) · 54 snaps · 37% pass	9th-0.107		14th-0.159
12 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (29th) · 23 snaps · 65% pass	25th-0.182		3rd-0.300
22 PERSONNEL 5% of snaps (10th) · 8 snaps · 38% pass	9th-0.083		4th-0.498

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Chargers offense lines up in 21 personnel on 31% of snaps (2nd most) and ranks 9th (-0.107) from it. The Seahawks defense ranks 14th (-0.159) against it. The Seahawks defense ranks 3rd in EPA per play (-0.156). The Chargers offense ranks 31st (-0.188). The Seahawks defense ranks 3rd in points per game (16.7). The Chargers offense ranks 29th (14.7).

This looks like a major mismatch on this side of the ball. It also feels like the Chargers are bound to play above this atrocious level at some point.

Pass game

Seahawks Pass Defense SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

PASSING

CHARGERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	28th-0.133		10th-0.032
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	29th38.5%		8th42.6%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	17th8.3%		1st2.0%
COMPLETION %	28th54.2%		11th59.6%
INTERCEPTION RATE	29th4.2%		2nd4.0%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

20th+2.6%

9th-7.0%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	27th34.6%		12th31.5%
TIME TO PRESSURE	13th2.61s		16th2.58s
SACK RATE	25th7.7%		15th6.5%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	16th-0.281		14th-0.333
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	30th-0.025		6th+0.174
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	26th52.3%		4th56.8%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 43% of snaps (29th) · 58 dropbacks	28th-0.214		10th-0.055
21 PERSONNEL 31% of snaps (2nd) · 20 dropbacks	13th-0.160		20th+0.283
12 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (29th) · 15 dropbacks	23rd-0.100		7th-0.078

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Chargers FACED · usage is Seahawks's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 19% of their snaps (27th) · 4 dropbacks	25th-0.095		25th+0.266
NICKEL 69% of their snaps (9th) · 88 dropbacks	28th-0.206		14th+0.005
DIME 10% of their snaps (10th) · 15 dropbacks	12th+0.271		4th-0.385

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Every clear edge on this graphic belongs to the Seahawks,

Receiving game

One thing the Chargers have had some success with is 21 personnel. Alec Ingold ranks 9th in DVOA among RBs (+29.7%). The Seahawks defense ranks 25th against RBs (+42.2%). Ingold is the safety net for Herbert. Seattle has been terrible against screens (31st), but the Chargers have showed no interest in that part of the offense. Keaten Mitchell is explosive, though, and it would be a bad thing to see him in space.

Running game

Seahawks Run Defense SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

RUNNING

CHARGERS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	31st-0.255		2nd-0.241
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	16th42.0%		1st28.2%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	16th9.9%		3rd6.4%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

11th-2.1%

3rd-39.7%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	17th66.7%		4th50.0%
STUFFED RATE	6th13.2%		3rd25.9%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 43% of snaps (29th) · 22 rushes	32nd-0.495		9th-0.131
21 PERSONNEL 31% of snaps (2nd) · 36 rushes	9th-0.092		9th-0.236
12 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (29th) · 8 rushes	28th-0.336		2nd-0.381

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Chargers FACED · usage is Seahawks's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 19% of their snaps (27th) · 31 rushes	25th-0.235		3rd-0.401
NICKEL 69% of their snaps (9th) · 41 rushes	30th-0.300		6th-0.152
DIME 10% of their snaps (10th) · 5 rushes	14th+0.051		6th-0.068

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Chargers have two good running backs, who compliment each other’s skill sets. They just have not been productive behind this offensive line. Omarion Hampton has also fumbled a few times. Nobody has run the ball on this defense.

Chargers key advantages on offense

Herbert is a threat with his legs and his arm. He can take off on scrambles and be used on design QB sweeps. He can make some of the wild throws that Matt Stafford made against the Seahawks a year ago. McConkey is an excellent route runner if he’s on the field.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Seahawks defensive interior has a huge mismatch again. This is an injured an inferior offensive line. Seattle should create chaos. They need their coverage to cover well enough to allow the rush to get home. The secondary has the guys to stay with an injured and unimpressive receiving corps.

Special Teams

Seahawks Special Teams SEA vs LAC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERALL Estimated points above average

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

CHARGERS

SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	15th+1.0%		29th-7.6%
FIELD GOALS & XP	10th1.5		30th-3.9

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

SEAHAWKS KICKING & COVERING

KICKOFFS vs CHARGERS KICK RETURN	26th-1.6		28th-2.1
PUNTING vs CHARGERS PUNT RETURN	3rd3.1		11th0.1

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

SEAHAWKS RETURNING

KICK RETURN vs CHARGERS KICKOFFS	30th-2.2		10th0.8
PUNT RETURN vs CHARGERS PUNTING	12th0.1		29th-2.1

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 3 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks rank have not been effective on kick coverage and Mike Macdonald was clear that was not acceptable. The Chargers have been decent on kick returns, so this is a good test. Los Angeles has also had trouble in the kicking game.

Key to a Chargers win

They need Herbert to look like a guy some believe is a top five quarterback in the league. He has not been close to that. They also need McDaniel to tap into some of the things that worked against Macdonald in Baltimore. Then they need a turnover or two on defense.

Key to a Seahawks win

Get some productivity from their backfield, either on the ground or through the air. That would open up a lot. Finding an explosive play or two would go a long way as well. Mainly, they need to get pressure on Herbert and force mistakes.

It has been nearly a year since Seahawks fans woke up the day after a game with that losing feeling. Twelve straight wins, including a Super Bowl title, somehow does little to dull the sting of dropping a game, especially against a vastly inferior opponent. The last time a Mike Macdonald team lost to a team as bad as the Washington Commanders squad they faced yesterday was against the NY Giants in Macdonald’s first season. It has been roughly two years since fans had to swallow a pill that bitter. This Seahawks team barely resembles that one. They are tough, talented, connected, and battle-tested. There should have been no way they could lose to a Commanders squad that was winless and without many of their best players. Logic lost. So did Seattle.

The simple version of what happened in this game was that the Seahawks lost the turnover battle 3-0. Teams who have given the ball away three times and taken it away zero times are 45-490-1 since 1999. That is an 8.5% win percentage. Seattle did not play to their standard. They turned the ball over. They lost. It may be unproductive to dig deeper than that. It may also be unwise to ignore what contributed to the result.

Most might start by talking about Sam Darnold’s two interceptions or Jadarian Price’s second fumble in as many games. Both are fair targets, and we will get to them. My mind goes to the defense that was the best in football last year, and was the best in the NFL the first two weeks. They faced a depleted and talent-poor Commanders offense. Even with the turnovers, they should not have surrendered 27 points (6 came on a Washington defensive score) to this team.

The pass rush has been middling to start the season. It has felt like there have not been many quick pressures (under 2.5s), but SumerSports data has the Seahawks as 4th in the NFL in quick pressure rate (23.1%) through three weeks. Their average time to pressure (2.45s) is tied with the Chiefs for first in the NFL. Washington was missing their left tackle and best guard. This should have been a blood bath. It was far from it. The Commanders could not run the ball on the Seahawks, but they became the first team to have a 20+ yard play against Seattle. In fact, they had two.

Josh Jobe was beat for the second time this season on a deep ball down the left sideline. He did not make a good play on the ball in the air. Both plays either directly or indirectly resulted in a touchdown. Jobe also gave up a few critical completions that kept drives alive.

Seattle played without both starting safeties. This was the first time an injury absence really could be felt in a while. The Seahawks win streak included games without their starting quarterback, left tackle, a running back, multiple starting safeties, starting guards, starting corners, starting linebackers, receivers and more. Almost every sub stepped in and left little drop-off. The drop-off was not little in this one.

A.J. Finely struggled in replacing Julian Love. Love had been one of the best players in all of football through two weeks, so some of this is about how good he has been. Finley took some bad angles, though, and got bailed out on a long touchdown run that was called back for a penalty. His personal foul penalty was a questionable call, but it was a back breaker. If Love is going to be out a while, Finley is going to have to be a lot better. The decision to elevate Maxen Hook from the practice squad instead of D’Anthony Bell was an interesting one.

Nick Emmanwori is listed as a safety, but is not a deep safety for this defense. His presence was not felt in this one. He exited briefly with a hamstring injury before returning. Maybe it is just rust after sitting out for training camp, but Seattle needs him to be an impact player. He has not been so far.

Timing on the return of Ty Okada also remains a question. It is asking a lot of any team and coaching staff to operate without both starting safeties, and their top backup (Bud Clark was lost for the season), and still play elite defense. Trevon Diggs is sitting on the practice squad. Perhaps the Seahawks will experiment with asking him to play safety. The outlook for Okada and Love will determine how inventive Seattle needs to be.

Macdonald credited backup quarterback, Marcus Mariota, for making smart checks at the line and getting rid of the ball quickly. Mariota has somehow never lost to the Seahawks. He is now 3-0 in his career. It was a highly efficient, if not flashy, day for the Commanders quarterback. He had just 183 yards passing and a paltry 5.3 yards per attempt, but threw three touchdowns against no interceptions for 110.0 passer rating.

That only happens if the pass rush is not hitting him and the coverage is not aggressive and sticky enough. Seattle continued a problem in the red zone, allowing 2 of 3 red zone possessions to end in touchdowns. Stop just one of those two and the Seahawks win the game.

Many will feel it is unfair to put so much on the shoulders of the defense when there were egregious mistakes on offense, but the standard for this defense is incredibly high. They did not meet it in this game.

One other aspect of this loss that will not make many headlines is the special teams. They lost their battle against Washington pretty decisively. The Commanders punter was fantastic, averaging 49 yards per punt and pinning Seattle inside the 20 yard line three times. Michael Dickson still has not allowed a return yard this season, but he had no punts inside the Commanders 20 yard line and averaged just 43 yards per punt.

That contributed to the Commanders average starting field position of their own 37 yard line, while the Seahawks average start was the 26 yard line. That may not seem like a large disparity, but every yard increases your scoring probability. This was a big gap.

Credit to their kicker for matching Jason Myers 57-yard field goal to end the half as well.

Seattle was sluggish to start this game on offense. The game plan from Brian Fleury relied more on early down runs than made sense. The Commanders do not do many things well, but they have been a stout run defense. Their secondary has been atrocious. They had to be thrilled when Seattle ignored Jaxon Smith-Njibga to start. Fleury and the offense eventually switched to exploiting that weakness, but it was a tactical error to not go after their weakness with your strength from the beginning.

That contributed to an early run from Price that turned into a crucial turnover. Price was benched for a while after his second fumble in two weeks. He had a fumbling issue in college. Seattle did not have to deal with fumbles from Kenneth Walker III or Zach Charbonnet. This is new territory to see how Macdonald navigates it with their first round pick.

Besides the obvious risk of more turnovers, Price may run more cautiously. His value is as an explosive rusher. Trading off explosiveness for ball security is not a trade the team can make. They need Price to be as aggressive as possible and protect the ball. Charbonnet may start his practice window this week, and could be back by week five or six. They still will need what Price offers or this running back room and this draft starts to look very different.

Darnold made some high level throws in this game and showed no ill effects from his injury. He escaped the pocket multiple times and seemed to run fine. He confirmed after the game he felt healthy.

The interceptions he threw are plays he will want back. The last one was especially bad. It was 2nd and 15 at the Washington 49-yard line, with his team only trailing by 3 points. The play did not work as designed and Darnold was trying to create something. A hidden villain in this was yet another pre-snap penalty (illegal formation) on 1st and 10 from the Commanders 44 yard line. That changed what types of plays Seattle could run.

An uncomfortable truth is that Darnold threw three straight turnover-worthy throws. He was very fortunate the deep throw on first down to Rashid Shaheed was not picked off. Same with his next throw to Price. The third time was the charm for Washington. It was a fitting capper to a day where the Seahawks tried over and over and over again to hand the game to a bad team. They finally took it and ran.

This loss will not define the Seahawks. They were not exposed. Macdonald is not suddenly a bad coach. Teams lose games on the road they should not all the time. Look at the powerhouse Rams who fell to 1-2 after they blew a 16-point lead to Denver.

Seattle will face a desperate Chargers team at home and then the currently undefeated 49ers. They need to get healthy. They need to lean on their strengths and exploit their opponents weaknesses. They need to get back to taking the ball away and not giving it away. They need to score touchdowns from the 1 and 2 yard lines. These are basics.

This loss could very well come back to bite them as an NFC loss in what is likely to be a tight division race. The only way to overcome a loss is to win. They get their next shot in six days.

These game previews typically focus on advantages for both teams. There are very few times when the talent gap is so large that it would be disingenuous to present the game as anything but a mismatch. This is one of those times.

Of course, the Commanders could rise up and win this game. They are 0-2 and fighting for their season at home with a very good coach who can motivate with the best of them. If that happens, though, it will be because of a lot of unlikely things occurred, not because they are the better team. Take a look at the numbers and decide for yourself.

Lineup Notes

The first injury report had Sam Darnold as limited. It seems like he has a real shot to play, but Seattle has already shown they can win with Drew Lock. Anthony Bradford going to IR means more Beau Stephens and Christian Haynes. Nick Emmanwori should be a full go for the first time.

The Commanders could be without their best guard in Sam Cosmi (concussion), and are already without their left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. Keep an eye on DT Javon Kinlaw, who did not practice Wednesday and is a key part of their run defense. The big absence is QB Jayden Daniels, who was hurt last weekend.

Team Overview

There is not much for the Commanders to hang their hats on when comparing the teams holistically.

Styles Make Fights

Seattle and Brian Fleury boast the top play action passing offense in the NFL. They have yet to throw an incomplete pass on play action. They are also best in under center. The outside zone run game has worked well.

Washington’s offense changes with Daniels out. A significant part of their run game was from their quarterback. They are, however, the top inside zone team in the league so far. That might change without Cosmi.

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense

Overview

Yikes. The Seahawks offense has not been super efficient, but the Commanders defense has been so bad, they make Seattle look like a juggernaut.

Passing game

The passing game, in particular, enjoys a huge advantage over the Commanders. The secondary has some real holes, and the pass rush has not been good enough to cover them up.

Receiving game

Run game

The Commanders run defense has been pretty good, but losing Kinlaw would hurt them in that area. Jadarian Price was injured against the Cardinals. We will see what his availability will be as the week progresses. Emanuel Wilson could see a larger load.

Commanders key advantages on defense

The run defense can be their biggest advantage. There are some decent edge rushers, but nobody dominant.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The passing game is the biggest gap. It has to be keeping the Commanders coaches up at night trying to figure out to handle the Seahawks receiving corps.

Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Here we are again. This is the best defense in football going against an offense that was struggling with their playmaker at quarterback. It feels bleak without their starter there and potentially without their best interior lineman.

Pass game

The Commanders give up a lot of pressure, but Daniels has been adept at avoiding sacks. Mariota is agile as well, but this is a tough spot.

Receiving game

Stefon Diggs has 3 TDs already. Both Josh Jobe and Devon Witherspoon have fared well against him in past matchups. Terry McLaurin missed the game last season and is a big play threat. Seattle has just shut down everyone through the air so far.

Running game

These numbers are again aided by Daniel’s legs. He was responsible for 100 of their 314 rushing yards on the year. Seattle is incredibly tough to run the ball against.

Commanders key advantages on offense

Mariota can create with his feet at times and is an accurate passer. The receiving corps has some solid route runners.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle arguably has an advantage at every position on the field when the Commanders are on offense.

Special Teams

The Commanders do not bring a great special teams unit to the party either.

Key to a Commanders win

They need some explosive plays through the air and some turnovers and a Seahawks team that comes out slow and never turns it on.

Key to a Seahawks win

Play with intensity and focus. They really just need to bring the energy they do every week, and the talent disparity should be enough to even make up for some mistakes.

One of two things happens to teams after they win a championship. Some become self-satisfied and splinter into individuals chasing notoriety and fortune. Others ascend to this higher plane of existence, where they enter each game with an air of inevitability. They know they are going to win. Their opponents know they are going to win. It does not matter if calls go against them, or starters are injured, or they fall behind. This Seahawks squad has youthful and experienced talent. They have elite coaching and rare continuity. They are mature and vicious. They no longer believe they are the best. They know it. It is a recipe worthy of a Michelin Star, even if the taste is bitter for the rest of the NFL.

Drew Lock was a backup quarterback only in name on this Sunday. He prepared all week to be the starter, and then put together one of the cleanest games from a Seahawks starter in some time. He finished 19/26 and that included three dropped passes. He threw three touchdowns without an interception, and never put the ball in harm’s way. The only sack came on a hail mary attempt at the end of the first half.

The collection of throws he made in this game belong next to any throw by any quarterback in the NFL this week. There were passes threaded between three defenders. There were fadeaway first downs off his back foot with a blitzer in his chest. There were patient deep bombs that allowed silver surfers to blow by their defenders.

You can certain there were fans of opposing teams watching this game with the hope that the plucky 1-0 Arizona Cardinals would be able to take advantage of Lock at quarterback and send the Seahawks reeling. Imagine how deflating it must have been to watch him outplay their own starters.

Lock was better than Justin Herbert this week. He was better than Caleb Williams. He was better than Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.

Your only hope as a Seattle opponent is to hold down the Seahawks offense. This was a discouraging game on that front for a variety of reasons.

Lock was excellent as the starter. The offensive line once again looked like it has taken a step forward, even with a starter missing for them as well. The run game was slow to start, but it ultimately did not matter as the passing game was highly efficient and the rushing attack eventually gained steam. Seattle was already without Zach Charbonnet, and the lost Jadarian Price to an injury. No matter. Emanuel Wilson was excellent in his place. Nick Emmanwori barely played. Tory Horton Jr. had just a few snaps and no targets. The tight ends had barely any production. Seattle had just 7 points at halftime.

They won by 24 points. On the road.

What tales must you tell yourself to believe you have a shot to beat this Seahawks team? This is not even the best version of what this team can be.

Brian Fleury now has two games of play calling experience. As good as Lock was in this game, Darnold has consistently been the better player in practice this offseason. Rodney Thomas II has been very good at safety. Ty Okada easily won the starting job and will return from a hamstring injury soon. Emmanwori will get his feet under him. Charbonnet will return, possibly as soon as Week 5.

This defense has been outstanding. It can be better. Seattle has not pressured the quarterback well so far. They rank 18th in pressure rate, after finishing 6th last season. That will need to improve against elite quarterbacks.

They have flourished in spite of mediocre pass rush due to exceptional coverage and tackling. Josh Jobe, Nehemiah Pritchett, and Devon Witherspoon have been terrific. Julian Love has looked like an All-Pro.

Mike Macdonald came out with a conservative game plan. The Seahawks blitzed on only 4.7% of the Cardinals dropbacks in the first half. That is a low number, even for Macdonald. That changed immediately in the second half. Macdonald called blitzes on 50% of Arizona dropbacks in the second half. Seattle ended the game with a 19.3% blitz rate.

Brissett and the Cardinals pass attack had 16 net passing yards after halftime. They had 44 total yards in that half, and 18 of them came on a garbage time run on the second-to-last play of the game.

It was suffocating. They have room to get even better. Macdonald said as much in the postgame press conference.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is so good, so consistently, that his excellence almost becomes an afterthought. Having 155 yards receiving and 3 TDs is nasty work. Doing it with the array of routes and plays he made is what makes him the best receiver in the game, and maybe the best player.

It felt like the rout was on early when he glided to an 82-yard touchdown. That play stood alone for some time before he added a second, and then a third. His concentration and strong hands make contested catches feel anything but a 50/50 proposition. He is athletic enough to sprint past a defender, savvy enough to disguise his routes, and physical enough to be comfortable with contact.

The offense will be better when Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton Jr. and AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo start to emerge. They are each capable of more, but it is easy to understand why every quarterback that plays for Seattle favors Smith-Njigba.

Shaheed was featured more in this game, and had mixed results. His drop early was one he surely wants back. It was a miraculous play by Lock.

The game plan was different this week, but one thing is already emerging about Fleury. Seattle has the lowest rate of 11 personnel (3 WRs) in the NFL through two weeks (32.2%). Last week, that was a ton of two tight end sets. This week, he had Nick Kallerup active and used 13 personnel (3 TEs) on 22% of their plays.

He is making heavy TE usage a staple of the offense so far. That will make it harder for WRs (outside of JSN) to get as many snaps and targets.

We will see what comes of the Beau Stephens and Christian Haynes split at right guard if Anthony Bradford misses more time. Both players had good moments on Sunday. Haynes had the better overall game, but it speaks volumes that John Benton and the coaching staff wanted to get the rookie on the field this early.

Seattle heads to Washington D.C. this week to face a Commanders team that just lost their starting quarterback. Macdonald hinted that Darnold has a chance to be back for this game. This game proved they do not need to rush anyone to return. This team can beat your starters with their backups. They can make you tap out on your home field. They are running it forward, and you are in their path.

An injured Sam Darnold and a stabilized Cardinals roster coming off a rousing road win over the heralded Los Angeles Chargers, makes this a game both teams come in believing they can win. The talent gap is considerable, though, and some injuries at the wrong position for Arizona could push this back into a longshot.

The best part of this Seahawks team is their interior defensive line. The Cardinals have already lost 2nd-round pick, Chase Bisontis, to injury and were missing the presumed starter, Isaiah Adams, in week one. Newly signed starting guard, Isaac Seumalo, did not practice on Wednesday, raising doubts about his availability. Part of what held Jacoby Brissett and this offense back in 2025 was the amount of sacks he took. Seattle got him five times, including two strip sacks returned for touchdowns, when they played. He was sacked just once for a loss of zero yards against the Chargers.

Brissett is a credible professional quarterback. He is not mobile. Even if their best guards were playing, the Seahawks defensive tackle rotation and Mike Macdonald’s mind might be too much too handle. Being down to deep reserves could make for a rough go.

The Seahawks need to find a rhythm that was missing on offense in their first game. It was understandable that things were stagnant for a while after the shock of losing their starting quarterback in the first series. That is no longer an excuse. This Seattle offensive line showed signs of being a mismatch themselves.

Unlike the Legion of Boom, who’s best players were mostly off the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, this Seahawks squad is built from the trenches out. That is not to say they are without excellence away from the line of scrimmage, but their foundation is on the offensive and defensive lines.

Teams with those strengths tend to be more resilient and consistent. Arizona is still in the process of identifying their foundation. The departure of mercurial quarterback, Kyler Murray, gives them a chance to find the players worth building around. Expect a spirited effort from the Cardinals. Expect the Seahawks to play a style that will be difficult to match.

Programming note: Tale of the Tape relies on data from the season to preview games. Week 2 means we have only a one game sample size. They tell us less about the teams now than they will in a few weeks. You will also notice far more data than has been provided in past years. Thanks to the folks at FTNFantasy.com and SumerSports for providing access to a deeper set of insights for me to explore and provide to you.

Lineup Notes

The first injury reports came out Wednesday and the absence of Seumalo certainly will spark concern in Arizona. Hayden Connor would take over in that situation. He is a 2025 6th round pick who played 29 snaps as a rookie. It is not clear if Garrett Williams will make it back for this game, but he has been one of the best nickel corners in football when healthy. Denzel Burke has taken slot corner snaps in his absence.

For Seattle, Nick Emmanwori was listed as limited for practice. Tory Horton Jr. was a full go. Emmanwori looms large in every game, but his availability to match up with Trey McBride would be a boon for the Seahawks. Ty Okada likely misses this game, but Rodney Thomas II played well in his debut.

Team Overview

Seattle starts the year with the top turnover differential in the NFL, which is where they ended last season. They have gone five straight games without turning the ball over. They have won 11 straight games, tying a franchise record. Arizona shows up here as a team that has a very strong first week.

Styles Make Fights

This is a new section this season where we look at the offensive styles of both squads to see how they like to attack opponents.

The Seahawks ran play action the 2nd-most often in the NFL (as a percentage of dropbacks) in week one. They were the 2nd-most efficient when doing so. Arizona was 27th in the NFL at defending it. That is one to watch.

Arizona was 1st in the NFL in defending outside zone running plays. Seattle was 1st in the NFL in percentage of runs that were outside zone.

Those two items will loom large in this game.

Arizona lives in shotgun, where many offenses are moving back under center. They are not a heavy play action team. Their running game is varied. Sean McVay moved the Rams to be a more man/power scheme a few years ago. LeFleur is still figuring out which style of run game will be their bedrock. Rookie running back Jeremiyah Love will contribute to that decision with how he plays.

Seattle remains one of the best run defenses in the NFL, no matter which style their opponent uses.

Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense

Overview

Seattle will need to possess the ball more with sustained drives in this game. Their passing offense was propped up by one big pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on 4th and 1, and one big pass to Cooper Kupp. Neither was a repeatable, reliable way to move the ball. Arizona was stingy against the Chargers.

Passing game

DVOA was not super impressed by the Cardinals pass defense.Seattle ranked low in pressure rate allowed, but their time to pressure was 8th. That indicates the pressure was not as much about pass protection, or their use of play action created longer-developing plays.

Abe Lucas had a rough game against the Patriots. He needs to be better.

Seattle relied heavily on two tight end sets (12 personnel). It was their most used personnel group, which is rare. Nearly every team has 11 personnel (3 WRs) as their most common grouping. We will find out of that was opponent-specific as time goes on. Seattle getting Horton Jr. back could shift some things, and finding ways to get Rashid Shaheed more involved will impact personnel as well.

Arizona struggled to defend 12 personnel versus the Chargers and excelled against 11 personnel. That could lead to more of the same deployment for Seattle this week.

When the Seahawks passed against base defense in week one, they were the most efficient passing team in the NFL.

Receiving game

Seattle struggled versus man coverage and the Cardinals performed well there. The screen game was not used much by Seattle. Jadarian Price can be a weapon there. Arizona struggling against out routes is notable given how much the Seahawks like to throw that pass.

Run game

It is surprising to see how poorly the Seahawks run game measured out statistically. It felt far more encouraging than the numbers would indicate. Arizona had a terrific day stuffing the run, and Roy Lopez was a big part of that. As good as the Seahawks were passing against base defense versus the Patriots, they were dead last in the NFL when trying to run against it.

That will make for an interesting decision for Brian Fleury, as 12 personnel is more likely to result in Arizona playing base defense.

Cardinals key advantages on defense

This is good, young, cornerback room that can be sticky in coverage, especially when Williams is on the field. Budda Baker is still a quality safety, and Mack Wilson Sr. can be disruptive as a blitzer from the linebacker spot. Lopez is a rugged run defender. Walter Nolan Jr. is an athletic interior player, who can get after the quarterback. Josh Sweat can be threat as an edge rusher when he’s motivated.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

JSN remains a cheat code against any defense. At some point, we will see Shaheed emerge as a key concern for defenses as well. Horton Jr. is such a promising player, but it’s not even clear how he gets on the field. It should be noted that he has more reps with Drew Lock than any other receiver. They have chemistry. The Cardinals do not have an intimidating pass rush. If Seattle can create push in the run game, they could put up some points.

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Arizona benefitted from a blocked punt that gave them the ball at the 3-yard line for one of their touchdown “drives.” Otherwise, they were a competent offense that moved the ball reasonably well without being very explosive.

They are a heavy 3 WR team, and did well with that personnel package. They brought the 13 personnel package over from Los Angeles, but did not get good results from it.

Pass game

Seattle did not allow an explosive pass in the first game. Brissett is a quarterback who completes a lot of passes, but does not threaten deep very often. They struggled against base defense in LA, but did well against extra defensive backs. Seattle did not defend the pass well out of base.

The biggest thing here is pass protection. Brissett was sacked a ton last season and was only sacked once in week one.

Receiving game

Kendrick Bourne was a big part of the passing attack, with 8 catches in 8 targets. He has not fared well against this Seahawks defense before. McBride is the one to watch. He has had productive days against the Seahawks, even if not during wins. Michael Wilson got paid this offseason and finished strong with Brissett. He has been locked up by Josh Jobe and Devon Witherspoon.

Wilson has 4 catches for 41 yards in 79 reps against that cornerback duo since 2024.

Running game

Arizona is counting on their new backfield to take pressure off the passing attack. Tyler Allegier and Love are talented backs who have the potential be one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL. Allegier is an excellent pass protector as well as a bully in the run game. Love can do it all.

They face arguably the best run defense in football.

Cardinals key advantages on offense

Love is compared at times to Bijan Robinson in terms of talent. Seattle held up well against Robinson in Atlanta last year, but that was with a lot more tape on who he is as a runner and receiver. The newness of LeFleur provides a little edge, but Leonard Williams has already noted familiar aspects of the McVay offense. McBride almost always gets his. Paris Johnson Jr. is a very good left tackle. The rest of the line has some work to do against a dynamic Seattle front. Marvin Harrison Jr. has size that can give a player like Witherspoon some problems.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The interior defensive line for Seattle could take over this game. Seattle corners played mostly great football against the Patriots and have good history against these receivers.

Special Teams

A good start for the Seahawks special teams unit.

Key to a Cardinals win

They need to force turnovers and hold the Seahawks offense under 20 points.

Key to a Seahawks win

Early down offense will be a big part of this one. Getting into advantageous 2nd down situations could lead to the big plays they will need to score points. They will need to pass protect better than they did against the Patriots as well.

Space is limited. Get your tickets before they’re sold out!

The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it.

I have been writing that line for years. This offseason I finally went and did it.

After a two-year hiatus, the HB Power Rankings are back, they have a permanent home at stats.hawkblogger.com, and every open question I have raised in a rankings post over the last decade now has an answer with evidence behind it.

What the rankings used to be

For anyone who has not seen one of these before, here is the formula I have been running since roughly forever:

(Rush EPA offense + Passer Rating offense + Avg Points Scored) minus (Rush EPA defense + Opponent Passer Rating defense + Avg Points Allowed), times strength of schedule

Three things you do, minus the same three things you allow, adjusted for who you played. Passing weighted more heavily than running. It worked. Roughly 70% of the teams sitting in the Top 10 after Week 3 made the playoffs, which is better than most of the gut feel lists you will read on a Tuesday.

But I never knew if the weights were right. I picked them. They were reasonable, and reasonable is not the same as correct.

Now the weights had to earn their spots

I tested the formula against every season back to 2015. The method is simple: rate all 32 teams through a given week, then check how well those ratings predicted the margin of every game those teams had left. Change one weight, run it again, see if it got better or worse.

Some of what came back was reassuring. When I swapped Yards Per Carry out for Rush EPA in 2024, I wrote that it might take a while to find the right weighting. Turns out the weight I picked on instinct was the peak. I tested it at zero, half, double and triple, and my original guess won. I will take it.

Some of it was less flattering. I dropped each of the three pieces in turn to see which was carrying the load, half expecting points per game to be doing all the work. It was not. Take out any one of the three and the rankings get measurably worse. All three earn their keep.

And one piece had to go.

Passer rating cannot see a sack

This bothered me for a long time and I never did anything about it.

Passer rating is completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions per attempt. A third and eight strip sack is not an attempt. It does not appear. One of the single most damaging plays in football is invisible to the metric I was using to measure passing.

So the rankings now use adjusted net yards per attempt instead, which counts sacks and the yardage they cost. It sits on the same scale, so nothing else in the formula had to move. It made the rankings better at predicting games, and more importantly it made them honest about pass protection.

The strength of schedule problem I wrote about and then ignored

In the 2024 Week 1 rankings I wrote:

SOS itself will gain efficacy as the season goes on, which is why most rankings do not use it this early.

And then I applied it from Week 1 anyway, because I thought everyone else was being lazy.

They were not. I was wrong, and the backtest is blunt about it. Adjusting for strength of schedule at full weight in Week 2 makes the rankings worse than not adjusting at all. It is not close. By Week 12 it is clearly better. The reason is obvious once you say it out loud: adjusting for your opponent means adjusting based on how good you currently think that opponent is, and in September nobody knows anything.

So the schedule adjustment now starts at zero and climbs to full weight by Week 10. The dial turns up as the league learns who it is.

The New Orleans problem

Also from that 2024 post:

New Orleans played an awful Panthers team, but blew them out by such a large margin that the rankings are not going to be able to compensate.

That was me describing a flaw and shrugging at it. Two things fix it now.

First, ratings shrink toward the middle when there is not much to go on. A 2-0 team does not get to be a fifteen point favorite in September just because it beat somebody 44-10. The spread widens as the season earns it.

Second, the early weeks lean on how last season finished. About a third of the rating in Week 2, gone entirely by Week 9. That was the single biggest accuracy improvement of everything I tried, and it is the reason I no longer have to write my other recurring disclaimer, which was that these rankings are worth ignoring until after Week 3. Week 1 means something now.

You can see both at work today. Seattle sits second after one game, and that is last season’s Super Bowl run doing some of the lifting, plus a defense that held Drake Maye to 1.47 adjusted net yards per attempt. The 13 points on offense are keeping them out of the top spot. The board can hold all three of those thoughts at once.

The number finally means something

The old rankings spat out a Team Strength figure. Tampa at -39.7. Houston at -53.5. I would quote those numbers in posts and you would nod along, but neither of us could tell you what -39.7 actually was.

Now the rating is points per game against an average team on a neutral field. That is it. A +7 team beats a -3 team by about ten on neutral turf. Add roughly two points if they are home.

Which means my own favorite rule of thumb now reads straight off the board. I have written many times that scoring ten more points per game than your opponent is the mark of a genuine contender. You no longer have to go find that number. It is the number.

It is a page now, not a Tuesday post

This is the part I am most pleased with.

The rankings are no longer something I publish when I get to it. They update every day during the season, usually by early morning Pacific, once the previous night’s play by play has posted.

There is a week selector across the top. Click any week and the board rebuilds exactly as it stood at that moment. You can walk the whole season forward and watch the tiers form. You can go back through previous seasons the same way.

Miguel left a comment on the Week 3 rankings in 2024 asking for a column showing the previous week’s ranking so you could see what moved. Sorry it took two years, Miguel. There is a movement column now, and every team has a small chart tracking where its rating has been all season.

Two more pages came with it

Team Check is the deep dive. Pick any team and you get 60 metrics, offense on the left, defense on the right, the difference between them down the middle, all ranked against the other 31. Filter by any week range you want. Full season, first half, last four, or a custom stretch you type in. There are tabs for situational splits, personnel groupings, and a head to head matchup view.

Team Grid plots any two team metrics against each other for all 32 teams at once. There are 57 metrics to pick from. Dashed lines mark the league average on each axis, which carves the league into quadrants, and better is always to the right and up no matter which direction the raw number runs. You can spotlight a team and watch the rest fade back, and you can download the whole chart as an image. If you want to win an argument with a picture instead of a paragraph, that now takes about four seconds.

What it still cannot do

This is not a betting model and I want to be clear about that. Across the last decade, the difference between two teams’ ratings predicts game margins at a correlation of about .34. The Vegas line does about .48. The market is better at this than I am and it is not remotely close.

It does not know your left tackle is out. It does not know the weather. It does not filter garbage time yet, which is the next thing on my list.

What it does is take the same public play by play everybody can see and turn it into a ranking that will tell you exactly why it thinks what it thinks. Every weight in it had to beat the alternatives to get there.

That sentence at the bottom of every rankings post is still true. I am still looking for ways to improve it. But for the first time, when somebody asks me why a team is seventh instead of fourteenth, I can actually answer.

stats.hawkblogger.com

Go Hawks!

-Brian