Hawk Blogger

Don't Fret About Tampa

2009-12-21T07:27:00.000-08:00

By far the biggest disappointment of my Sunday was getting to the Seahawks game way too early. I dilly-dallied at Uwajimaya, walked slowly to the stadium, and up the stairs to my seats, but I still had almost an hour to kill by the time I sat down. By the time my friend arrived and the game started, it was a major relief.

Perhaps, that played a role in my total lack of concern or frustration about our loss to lowly Tampa. After all, it was far better to watch the Hawks going through the motions on the field than watching them practice the motions before the game. My emotional distance from the team and the game helped me discover what may have been the root cause of what we saw. While Jim Mora asking for "dirt bags" was getting a lot of talk this week, I think the players thought he was asking them to play like douche bags. He really *IS* getting through to them! Next week he should ask them to play like Super Bowl Chumps, and hope they hear Champs instead.

Anyone out there that believes Jim Mora and his staff can lead this team to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl simply is not paying attention. The team has given up in a way I've rarely seen a Seahawks team give up. We are not lacking in crappy Seahawks teams to compare to either. Mora hangs his hat on being an emotional leader. When he is not even getting the team to play hard, you are left to examine his coaching, and let me just say, "blech."

The good news is we lost a game I never thought we'd lose. This loss gives us a real shot at the #6 pick. A costly win would have put us as low as #12, depending on other team results. Make no mistake about it, we need a franchise player, and possibly two, to start any climb back toward respectability. If we lose out, we may even get the chance to pick a new coach, which also puts us on a better path. This season has been over since the Week Three loss to the Bears. Don't waste a minute of your precious time worrying about the Tampa game. Save your anger and frustration for something that actually matters.

Future Of Franchise At Risk

2009-12-20T08:19:00.000-08:00

There hasn't been much worthy of writing about lately in regards to our Hawks. In fact, my last post has held true all the way up through last night when the Seahawks effectively sabotaged bringing Holmgren back to the front office by offering him a position he didn't want. Here was the exact passage from that post:

Holmgren is also harder to predict than some may think. He will be genuinely interested in the Browns job, and maybe the Bills job. He likes to build from the ground up where there are little-to-no expectations of winning early. Total control and low expectations is a nice way to work. His ego is also a proven part of the equation. Any attempts to confine his power that appear artificial, or indicate less than total confidence in his ability will drive him away. That may be Leiweke's best chance to sabotage the process. If he lets Mike in the door, but insults him with constraints, Holmgren will bolt.

Unless you are of the opinion that Holmgren was lying all this time about his interest in the Hawks, the only logical conclusion is that the Seahawks (and we can't be sure exactly who) restricted his power. Some may say that was a prudent move. After all, the team has not had a chance to do a thorough review of other possible candidates. I believe it is far more likely that we will look back at this move with regret than appreciation. The team has now tied its future hopes to the idea that they will find someone better than Mike Holmgren to lead the franchise. How many "better than Mike Holmgren" guys are just sitting out there waiting to be discovered? How many great franchise-building GMs are their in the NFL?

People love to throw out Jack Z as proof that getting a talented unknown can be a huge success. Football is not baseball, folks. There is a new wunder-GM every season or so in baseball. There is no salary cap. There is a minor league system to work with, mine and upgrade. There are international markets to pull from. Trades are commonplace. None of that is true in the NFL. Change is hard. Sure, a team can go from worst-to-first, but building a championship team is another thing entirely. There are select few people in this league that know how to win a Super Bowl. Holmgren is one of those. This rumors I hear about some guy from the Arizona front-office that is a great talent evaluator makes me want to puke. Arizona? That's a model franchise for talent evaluation? Really? Talk about buying the hype. Ken Whisenhunt has had far more to do with that team's recent success than great talent evaluation. And even if a guy is a great scout, who is simple enough to believe a great franchise builder is so tied to talent evaluation?

We need someone who is a great evaluator of people, including coaches and agents. We need someone who will not blink when their star player decides to hold-out. I seem to remember one GM we had who let his best player hold out for eight weeks before the player finally relented and joined the team. Oh, and then he traded him to Dallas for TWO first-round draft picks.

People greatly underestimate what it takes to build a champion in the great NW. Holmgren came into a franchise that was in a similar state to the Detroit Lions and created a winning atmosphere and a Super Bowl contending foundation. If you need any more proof of how hard it will be to do better than him, just look at his replacement who won executive of the year in his first season, and will likely be hired again. How sure are we this "non-Holmgren" pick will be any better than Ruskell?

There is really no angle to this where I think the Seahawks can be commended for making the right choice here. I certainly hope with all my soul that we find the next great franchise builder out there, but history has proven it's far more likely we'll get someone who will tell the front office what they want to hear and lead us to oblivion while Holmgren turns the Browns into contenders within five years.

All this takes on even more meaning when you realize it's doubtful that Jim Mora Jr. can succeed as our coach. The guy talks and talks and talks, but rarely says anything. If *I* feel that way, what does his team think? His motivational ploys have to wear thin pretty quickly. I had coaches like that growing up that knew what to say, but there was no credibility or substance to their words. Players tune that out. With a Holmgren hire, we would have had a Hall of Fame coach built-in, waiting to step in. Now, we'll have to potentially get the GM role right AND get the coaching decision right when we could have gotten both right with one decision. Knowing that Mora will probably be here for another season essentially equals another wasted season from my perspective.

I sit here now, surveying the current landscape and potential directions of the franchise to come, and see very few paths that lead to glory. As I've said before, nobody would be happier than me if I am wrong. My hopes are now pinned to the slim possibility that we are not going to hire some no-name GM that could prove himself. We need to hire a proven champion that has built franchises in the past. The more you hear comparisons to Jack Z, the less any of us should be confident in the future. Gambling is a game for losers. The Seahawks are rolling the dice.

GM Search Won't Be Straight-Forward

2009-12-04T06:48:00.000-08:00

The last few weeks we have read story after story saying it was time for Holmgren to come in and replace Ruskell. Now that we have reached the point of Ruskell resigning, the vogue story is that Holmgren is not a lock and that the Seahawks should engage in a thorough search before making the decision. I'm not exactly sure that these are really mutually exclusive things, but I will tell you what I have learned.

Leiweke was invested in Ruskell. I'm not convinced he was ready to let Ruskell walk now, or after the season. Check out this quote:

"I work for a man, Mr. Paul Allen, who has exacting standards on that. It’s also his opinion that this is a unique and special franchise, and with it comes expectations. So, bottom line, we didn’t win enough games.”

Pass the buck much? What remains to be seen is if Leiweke is bitter about being forced into this move. Signs to watch out for would include making the search more exhaustive than would seem appropriate, recoiling when asked about Mike Holmgren, and saying things that would help sway public opinion away from Holmgren (i.e., "This franchise needs a fresh direction"). Check, check, and we'll see on those. If there was a guy out there who had been mildly lobbying for your pal's job and constantly thrown in your face by fans as a super hero, it would not be hard to imagine a little distaste developing.

I believe Holmgren is the right guy on a number of levels, most importantly, he has already rebuilt this franchise once before from an even worse state than it is now. Beyond that, we've had a GM with a defensive bent for years and have stockpiled a fair amount of talent on that side of the ball. It still seems like we are a disruptive lineman and good scheme away from being good enough on that unit. The offense needs rebuilding, and that's Holmgren's specialty. We need to build a viable offensive line, find a special running back and figure out who Matt's successor will be. Despite picking Shaun Alexander, I question Holmgren's RB evaluations, but he's developed two offensive lines and two QBs that reached the Super Bowl.

Holmgren's qualifications aside, this will be a delicate dance. Paul Allen will be the wild card. I believe he's a Holmgren guy, and will need to be convinced that someone else should step in. I think Leiweke will be skewed against Holmgren, so there will be an interesting check and balance there. Holmgren is also harder to predict than some may think. He will be genuinely interested in the Browns job, and maybe the Bills job. He likes to build from the ground up where there are little-to-no expectations of winning early. Total control and low expectations is a nice way to work. His ego is also a proven part of the equation. Any attempts to confine his power that appear artificial, or indicate less than total confidence in his ability will drive him away. That may be Leiweke's best chance to sabotage the process. If he lets Mike in the door, but insults him with constraints, Holmgren will bolt.

Public opinion will be Leiweke's greatest adversary if he really does want to distance himself from Holmgren. His job would be on the line if he picked someone else who again did not pan out. Picking Holmgren, and having it fail would be criticized as unimaginative, but that's not usually a firing offense. Being pig-headed by going against the grain to pick anyone but the obvious choice is putting your ass on the line. Hmm, who else seemed to do that in the Seahawks front office the past five years?? How did that work out for him?

As much as I'm in the bag for Holmgren on this, I actually am eager to hear about the other candidates. What happens if Paul Allen's big bag'o'money can get Scott Pioli and Bill Belechick? I realize that's crazy, but you never really know. I want the Seahawks to be champions. Whoever can take us there is fine by me. If it's not Mike Holmgren, though, you better be damn sure you get it right.

Losing Ruskell Is A Win For Seattle

2009-12-03T09:13:00.000-08:00

It's been no secret that I have been less than enamored with Tim Ruskell for some time. It wasn't always that way.

I loved that he came into the organization with a major focus on talent evaluation and scouting. I remember reading a story during his first training camp where we found out he was dedicating scouting to our own practices to grade out our players from session to session. It was a welcome change from what seemed like an endless string of second chances that players got under Holmgren. Accountability and pressure to perform was exactly what the team needed. We also needed help on defense. Remember, this guy inherited a defense that included players like Cedric Woodard, Grant Wistrom, Chike Okeafor, Antonio Cochran, Anthony Simmons, and Rashad Moore from 2004. His impact in turning that defense around in one season was undeniable. Draft picks like Lofa Tatupu and LeRoy Hill, along with free agent additions like Chuck Darby and Andre Dyson played pivotal roles in a drastically improved defense.

Then we got our first sign of the ego that would eventually be his undoing. He decides to be cute and transition tag Hutch. We all know the rest of the story, and the detail that Holmgren left town knowing they would franchise him. What's key here is that Ruskell always seemed to have this need to prove he could do things his own way, differently than the rest of the NFL. Somehow, he just knew better than everyone else. Or, at least, he thought. His bravado was not reserved to this single, unforgivable, mistake. His drafts are filled with players who were not valued at the same level as other teams. Of all the times he went against conventional wisdom in the draft, it worked out exactly twice (Lofa, John Carlson).

I can support and understand wanting to find the diamond in the rough, but it shouldn't be done with every pick. Regardless of my philosophy, the proof is in the results. Ruskell's drafts lack franchise players. There may be a number of solid role players, but championships are won with great players. You need to reach for greatness, and Ruskell seemed reluctant to do so. He preferred guys that were easier to project, but generally had lower ceilings.

His free agent moves were not much better. If there is one thing I've learned about franchise development in the NFL, it's that you spend money on lineman and CBs in free agency and you should never spend on RBs. Ruskell attempted to spend money on lineman like Dielman from SD, and did land Colin Cole and Patrick Kearney. But he also spent an insane amount of cash on running backs. Buying a running back in free agency is like buying a used care for new car money. There are examples all over the NFL of filling the RB position with cheap, young talent. We all know Forsett has been our best running back for two seasons, and the kid was a 7th round pick. As much as I like Forsett, his ceiling is as an NFL starter. He will never make the Pro Bowl. Ruskell's total bungling of the RB position was in some ways worse than the Hutch gaffe since he kept making the same mistakes over and over.

Even with all that, I think Ruskell would have survived if he knew how to pick lineman. Chris Spencer, Daryll Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Colin Cole, Rob Sims, Baraka Atkins and others just never became above average players. That's a lot of resources spent on average or below average players. If he had even found one cornerstone on that line (and no, Brandon Mebane has not proven to be a cornerstone), things may have been different. I think it's hard to argue that either our offensive or defensive lines have improved since he arrived in 2005. What's worse is that I think both are getting worse year over year.

I'll try to find some time to explore who might replace him and what we need sometime soon. Don't assume, though, that Mike Holmgren will want to be back. It seems likely, but he will get some pretty enticing offers from places like Cleveland where he can have total control, with rock-bottom expectations and be a coach right away. He liked those chances in Green Bay and Seattle. Regardless of who replaces Ruskell, I am confident that our opportunity to turn things around as a franchise got a nice uplift today. Let's see what happens next.

Ruskell About To Make His Best Move?

2009-12-03T07:20:00.000-08:00

All the reports are that Timmay! is about to walk out the door on the rest of season after hearing his contract won't be renewed. If it's true, and I don't want to jinx it, it will make the last two seasons worth it. Our long-term prospects are significantly better with other folks in that spot. More to come if we do get the good news today...

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 12

2009-12-03T07:15:00.000-08:00

In what appears to be a three-team race, NO, Minnesota and Indy are dominating the rankings. Check out the scatter chart for how clearly they have separated from the other teams.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 11

2009-11-26T19:51:00.001-08:00

RECAP: Cards Beat Hawks 31-20

2009-11-15T18:26:00.000-08:00

Thank you. Thank you, Seahawks, for standing up and fighting today. Any hope of resurrecting this season ended with the loss to the Cardinals, but any realistic hope ended back in the week three loss to the Bears, and again in the loss at home to the Cards. This game today was about self-respect. There was plenty of reasons to expect a massive butt whupping today, but the Seahawks finally played with the resolve and confidence that has been missing for nearly two years.

The defense, especially, started the game by setting a nasty tone. Good tackling, tight coverage and hard hits were abundant. The goal line stand and subsequent 99-yard TD drive was by far the best five minutes of Seahawks football all season long. In the end, though, the better team prevailed.

This game came down to two things: red zone production and pass rush. The Seahawks finished with 1 TD in 4 red zone trips compared to 3 TDs in 5 trips for the Cardinals. When the Seahawks had a 1st and Goal at the 1 yard line, tied at 17, and had to settle for a FG, you knew we probably had lost our edge. We ended the game with zero QB hits and zero sacks compared to 7 QB hits and 4 sacks for the Cards. It was pretty obvious that our game plan was to sit back in coverage and force Warner to throw underneath. Even so, we never came close to getting to Warner with four down lineman.

INDIVIDUAL NOTES
- Justin Forsett proved what I've been saying for since last pre-season: he's our starting running back until we find someone better. Julius Jones is a waste of money and snaps. Forsett runs with purpose and creativity that Jones simply is incapable of. He also made at least one fabulous block on a blitz that saved a potential safety or defensive TD.

- Louis Rankin was a great partner in crime. He was a blur once he had the ball and ran hard. Glad to have him aboard. Let's just hope Jones is shown the door or the bench so we can really see what we have here.

- Offensive Line play was suspect in pass protection, with Locklear and Ray Willis getting beat on multiple occasions. The zone blocking in the run game finally started to look like it was working. I even saw a few effective cut blocks. We just need to see this group play together the rest of the year before we can be sure what we have (or don't).

- Matt played his heart out, but I have to admit he looked old. He was a step slow running and looked like he was pressing all day. He has the heart of a champion, but his grasp of this new offense is suspect. We can hope that another off-season of practice will quicken his reads and improve his decision making, but it begs the question, would the offense be better off returning to what Matt knows best?

- David Hawthorne. Another game, another pile of (team-leading) tackles and another tackle for loss.

- Josh Wilson really stood out today in the secondary as a competitor and tackler.

- Housh had his breakout performance.

I firmly believe this franchise is better off with Mike Holmgren running it, and so I take a little solace in the fact that this loss gets us a little closer to that possibility. Hold your heads high Hawks fans. Your team played tough today.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 9

2009-11-12T20:04:00.000-08:00

First Reactions: Hawks Beat Lions 32-20

2009-11-08T18:04:00.000-08:00

Being a Lions fan has to be among the worst things a sports fan can be. The Seahawks started a game about as bad as you can start (for the second straight home game), and yet I turned to my buddy with confidence as we went down 17-0 and said, "You know we're still going to win this game, right?" And that wasn't arrogance as a Hawks fan. It was just awareness of what the Lions are.

I really feel for those folks. Hopeless.

Quick hitters:

- David Hawthorne. Three starts, three times leading the team in tackles and making at least two major impact plays in each game. I don't miss Lofa one bit.

- Julius Jones will get some praise for his long screen play, but for god sakes, why doesn't anyone see how much he's holding the team back? He offers almost nothing out there! I think he and Edge are a toss-up, and we just waived Edge. Forsett gets one carry for 14 yards. Unacceptable.

- Matt has never seemed comfortable with this offense. He might have had a record day with stats, but he continues to look hesitant and is missing much bigger gains by locking into a single receiver.

- Nice game by Josh Wilson

- Jon Ryan continues to be the best Seahawk this year.

GAME THREAD: Hawks vs. Lions

2009-11-08T09:49:00.000-08:00

This game is like clash of the titans, only re-enacted by disabled, elderly little people. That said, there are a few things I am looking forward to:

- David Hawthorne further proving that Lofa has been loafing the past two seasons, and that a talented, hungry middle linebacker can make plays behind this defensive line

- Sean Locklear? Could it be? I'd really like to start evaluating how much of this o-line will need to be blown up and rebuilt next year.

- Forsett and/or Rankin getting some carries with Edge out of town

- Housh and Matt shutting everybody up

- A little run for Deon Butler?

- Aaron Curry tends to be a beast at home, especially against shitty teams.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nick Reed will have a memorable play today

All the media outlets have chalked this game up as a gimme victory. What people fail to realize is that the Hawks are not good enough to have any certain wins. The Lions have given a number of teams more fight than they expected. I think it's fair to expect a Hawks victory, but unwise to count on one.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 8

2009-11-03T07:22:00.000-08:00

Check out the powerhouse NFC West with no team ranked higher than 18!! Congrats to the Rams on being ranked higher than 32nd for the first time all season. As always, I recommend clicking on the Chart1 scatter chart for a different perspective.

RECAP: Cowboys Stomp Hawks 38-17

2009-11-02T07:27:00.000-08:00

Let me start by saying, I'm not mad or depressed or even disappointed in the game yesterday. Fool me once, and all that. I point out my state of mind to dismiss any notion of this being the ramblings of a tortured soul. This is where we are people. Get used to the view.

As I watched the game yesterday (I only saw about half of it due to vomiting youngest son who needed a hospital visit which was nearly as much fun as the game), my overwhelming feeling was, "How the hell are we going to fix this?"

It was annoying to read the paper this morning and see quotes claiming confusion and disbelief that Seahawks were playing so poorly. What could possibly be leading to this? Uh, seriously?

There are many types of poor NFL teams. There are the bad teams that are young at key positions, building toward something better. I'll give you the 2006 Arizona Cardinals (5-11), for example. They had the core of their young offensive line in place, key defensive players like Docket and Wilson, and were about to draft a franchise player in Fitzgerald the following off-season.

There are also bad teams that are just broken and are not building toward anything. The current St Louis Rams would be an example of that.

Then you have a team like the Seahawks that is terminally ill. Key parts of the body (offensive line, defensive line, running back) are dead or dying, but this won't be a merciless, quick death, and the hopes of recovery hinge on regrowing or replacing vital organs. The Hawks can't just buy or build a new offensive line. We've had a couple of decent lines in the Hawks 35-year history. They are not a certainty. They take years to groom and stabilize, and are even harder to come by in the world of free agency and salary cap. Defensive lines are the second hardest thing to replace. The Hawks have a number of young players on this defensive line, and none of them appear to be cornerstones you can build around. For the hype around Mebane, he's no budding superstar.

Even our supposedly strongest position, linebacker, is highly questionable. David Hawthorne has played the best two games of any linebacker on the Seahawks team this season, and better than any game Lofa Tatupu has played in the past two seasons. LeRoy Hill has been middling, at best. Curry looks like he'll be a nice player, but not a franchise player. These are your linebackers for years, folks. Tons of money invested there.

For all the concern about Hasselbeck's health and future, he could still lead a good team to a championship. This just isn't a good team. He's at the point in his career that he must have a reliable running game and offensive line to work with. He's got neither. I will say that Matt left three TDs on the field yesterday by throwing the ball on a line without enough air under it. One to Housh. One on a screen moments later, and one on the diving catch Burleson made down field. If any of those throws had allowed his receivers to run underneath it, the Hawks would have scored. And even though I don't think Housh's antics are the right way to show it, Hasselbeck is not using him appropriately.

Bottom line is that we've got problems that are not going to be fixed in one or even two off-seasons.

GAME THREAD: Hawks @ Cowboys

2009-11-01T06:57:00.001-08:00

This is going to be brutal. Come join me for the fun!

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Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 7

2009-10-29T17:09:00.000-07:00

I recommend checking out the scatter chart this week (click Chart1 link below). You'll notice that the Saints and Colts have separated themselves, followed by the Pats, Packers and Broncos, and then it's really everyone else.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 6

2009-10-22T07:25:00.000-07:00

Here's the updated rankings for week 6. Scatter chart is available by clicking on the chart tab toward the bottom.

Yesterday and Tomorrow

2009-10-19T06:15:00.000-07:00

Games like the one we saw yesterday only happen when one team comes ready to play and the other does not. A full hour before kickoff yesterday, it was very clear which team had energy and enthusiasm. I tweeted about it at the time, but I'd be lying if I told you I expected an outcome like that.

The most likely scenario is that the Hawks season is now just about playing out the string.

Sun, Nov 1 @ Dallas

Outcome: Loss, 2-5

Sun, Nov 8 Detroit

Outcome: Win, 3-5

Sun, Nov 15 @ Arizona

Outcome: Loss, 3-6

Sun, Nov 22 @ Minnesota

Outcome: Loss, 3-7

Sun, Nov 29 @ St. Louis

Outcome: Win, 4-7

Sun, Dec 6 San Francisco

Outcome: Win, 5-7

Sun, Dec 13 @ Houston

Outcome: Loss, 5-8

Sun, Dec 20 Tampa Bay

Outcome: Win, 6-8

Sun, Dec 27 @ Green Bay

Outcome: Loss, 6-9

Sun, Jan 3 Tennessee

Outcome: Win, 7-9

A loss @ STL is possible as is a loss at home against SF. I can envision one upset here or there that gets us to 8-8, but that's about it.

As you've probably read by now, Lofa is out for the season with a torn pectoral. It will be very interesting to see if David Hawthorne's game against the Bears was a fluke. He had 2 tackles for loss after replacing Lofa yesterday. If Hawthorne emerges, what kind of trade scenarios does that open up?

A few things stood out to me from the game yesterday:

* Larry Fitzgerald is awe-inspiring. That catch he made on 3rd and 2 on the first drive of the game after falling to the ground was shocking. It's like he is out there catching balls with a big salmon net. I don't understand why they don't throw him the ball every single play. I honestly don't think he is defensible.

* What is the world was DD Lewis doing on that onsides kick? He moved toward it and then backed away from it. Embarrassing.

* People will blame the offensive line for our trouble moving the ball, but Matt was back there looking for receivers and finding nobody. He did not have endless amounts of time, but he had enough to make 1-3 reads and get rid of the ball. Greg Knapp gets an F- for yesterday. He was soundly beaten by the Cards defensive schemes. I can't remember the last time our offense looked that inept. Knapp also has shown a disturbing tendency to get desperate in the worst times. The 3rd and 5 call to go deep to Deon Butler was desperate and low percentage. We have not hit that play all year, and we're all of a sudden going to nail it then? Passing on 2nd and 3rd and goal from the 3 yard line? Starting the second half with two straight runs? If I had to pick one goat, he'd be the one.

* Nick Reed finally got significant playing time and was a non-factor. Too bad.

Those were the thoughts worth sharing. Bad weekend for Washington football.

GAME THREAD: Hawks vs. Cardinals

2009-10-18T09:55:00.001-07:00

It has become quite the fashionable and correct thing to bash our now infamous head-basher, Owen Schmitt. Commentators and media alike quickly realized that showing any sort of support for his bloody act would potentially encourage younger players to follow his lead. I get that. I, however, have no such obligation or responsibility to worry about since I am not concerned that my faithful two readers will be bashing their heads with hard objects any more now than they were before Schmitt did the deed. I, for one, loved it. As a fan of a team stuck with the "finesse/pushover" label for its entire history, I was thrilled to see one of our own buck the trend and perception. Nothing would help this battered team more than to grow a collective spine and decide that toughness and anger and grit were their ticket to success and respect this season. Because let's face it, as much as we talk about how critical this game in against Arizona, our biggest aspirations are to make the playoffs. Nobody could credibly argue we can reach the same class as teams like the Giants or Saints.

I'd almost rather see the Hawks let go of the playoff dreams and focus instead on establishing a new identity as a team that is going to physically kick your ass every time we play you, win or lose. Aaron Curry plays that way. Lawyer Milloy plays that way. David Hawthorne plays that way. We need more violence from our defense. We need to punish teams just for playing us. It's a shame that the first demonstration of maniacal toughness this team has seen in years is so widely panned. I'll be showing my support today by celebrating Halloween a few weeks early with a fake gash and blood on my face today at Qwest. Hope to see you there!

THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S GAME
I have gotten progressively less confident about today's game as the week as gone on. Matt got through last week almost untouched. It feels like he is one blindside hit away from being out again. Kelly Jennings might be the worst matchup with Larry Fitzgerald in the NFL given his total lack of ability to compete for the jump ball, and I expect him to line up against him for much of the day since Josh Wilson slides inside to guard the slot receiver in 3 WR sets. All that said, I think we have a shot given it's a game at Qwest and the Cardinals are not a dominant team.

To win, we need to hit Warner regularly. I'd take a few roughing the passer penalties if we could get some good shots in. I don't know that knocking out Warner to bring in Leinart is a net positive for us, though. I'd prefer a skittish Warner. Tackling will be key. Lots of swing passes to their RB and big, strong WRs. The difference today will be turnovers and passing. I'd bet the team with the highest QB rating wins today.

Feel free to chat during the game without me: http://my.adobe.acrobat.com/hawkblogger

Great Matchup Analysis

2009-10-14T10:05:00.001-07:00

After scouring the web for years looking for a reliable place to find things like Red Zone success rate, I finally found a great site: http://www.teamrankings.com

I would highly recommend checking out their analysis of the Hawks/Cards game this weekend. Lots of strong signs pointing to a Seahawks victory. Be sure to click on the matchup stats tab. It's chock-full-of great info.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 5

2009-10-13T06:10:00.000-07:00

The Hawks make a major climb up the charts after their blowout. You won't see this kind of movement in other rankings as mine are strongly influenced by point differential. That said, popular opinion-based rankings, like those of ESPN had New England ranked higher than the Broncos. I haven't wanted to believe it, but my rankings have had the Broncos in the Top 4 since Week 2.

The Hawks have two games left against teams ranked higher than them, both on the road (@Dallas, @Minnesota).

This week I've added a distribution graph to see if there is any grouping to the rankings. You can click the "chart1" link on the ranking sheet above to see the detailed view. You can see that the top two teams stand out, followed by a group of four that still eclipse the 10 point mark. From there, you have 12 teams bunched between 0-10 points. That's the scrum. That's where the Seahawks sit after this past Sunday.

First Look: Arizona Cardinals

2009-10-12T19:31:00.000-07:00

Many NFL observers and experts expected the Cardinals to fall on their faces after a
Super Bowl run last season. The word was that they had a miracle run that was unlikely to happen again. I was in the minority that expected them to be a better, more consistent team this season.

They did not lose any significant players. Many of their best players outside of QB are young and still improving. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston and Kurt Warner appeared to be every bit the offensive Juggernaut they were last season. And yet, here they stand at 2-2, just a half-game better than our beleaguered Seahawks squad that has more missing starters than Jacksonville had first downs. Why? There was not an obvious answer on first blush.

This is a team that ranked 7th (2007) and 3rd (2008) in points scored the last two seasons, that is currently ranked 21st. The slide is even larger in yards/game where they slipped from 4th in the NFL all the way to 27th this season.

Kurt Warner's passer rating is down from 96.9 to 89.7. Not exactly the stuff that foreshadows impending offensive doom. His TD% (the percentage of TDs thrown per pass attempt) has dropped considerably from 5.0 to 3.8. Comparatively, Matt Hasselbeck leads the NFL with an 8.3 TD%. That likely means they are settling for more field goals than last year. Another stat that would support that theory is that the Cards are 29th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate, sporting a nasty 25% success rate. Show me a team struggling to convert third downs, and I'll show you a team struggling to sustain drives and likely struggling in the red zone.

It would be easy to point the finger at the Cardinals anemic running game, but they ranked dead last in the NFL last season, so even dropping from 3.5 YPC to 3.2 is not all that noteworthy since it clearly is not the key to their success.

Remember all the talk about how Matt's game this week was somehow expected against a Jags team that is last in the NFL in sacks and 31st in pass defense? The Cardinals defense ranks dead last in the NFL in pass defense, allowing over 300 yards/game! They rank 25th in sacks. Their run defense is excellent.

At first glance, our strengths match up with their weaknesses. The Hawks boast the 7th ranked NFL 3rd down defense, and we just saw what our passing game looks like with Matt clicking. It's hard to feel confident when you're facing a trio of receivers like the Cards throw out there when our best corner is still out, but there are reasons for optimism.

First Reactions: Hawks Beat Jags 41-0

2009-10-11T21:47:00.000-07:00

This game was a little different from the beginning. I could have sworn I saw a thick red glob of blood running down Owen Schmitt's forehead after he banged his helmet into his head, but the big screen cut away before I could be sure. No video I have seen captures what I saw as the wound was initially inflicted. It doesn't much matter as everyone got to see the Hawks treat the Jags the way Schmitt treats his forehead.

There was lots to talk about in this game. Matt Hasselbeck returning with a 4 TD, 0 INT game. TJ Houshmandzadeh breaking out with two TDs. But the thing that jumped out most was the ferocity with which our defense got after the quarterback. FINALLY!

We saw blitzes from multiple angles. We saw pressure from a four-man rush. There were QB hurries, QB hits, QB sacks, QB fumbles and even QBs getting steam-rolled by defensive ends acting like running backs.

Daryll Tapp was a revelation today. Patrick Kerney who? Tapp was constantly in the backfield. He ends up with four QB hits, 2 tackles for loss, a sack and the statistically hidden feat of setting the tone for this defense. Tapp was not alone. Lofa Tatupu stood out from the stands. I was shocked when I got home to see he was only credited with eight tackles. The guy was everywhere today. His protege made a huge impact as well. Aaron Curry once again forced a crucial QB turnover (it's great to see he has a knack for causing turnovers when he does get to the QB), and made countless ferocious hits while leading the team in tackles. Curry played his most confident game. Let's hope he can build on it.

And what would a review of the Seahawks defense be without mentioning Nick Reed? He should have been credited with two sacks (the second was given to Josh Wilson), and applied pressure whenever he was in the game. This guy makes plays every time he is on the field. Not most of the time. E-v-e-r-y time. And it's not just pressuring the QB. He pursues the ball carrier with the same passion as he does the QB. Someone more clever than me needs to nickname this kid because he's something special.

The best player on the Seahawks defense in 2009? Lawrence Jackson. He put together another solid outing, including his team-leading fourth sack. His effort has been undeniable, and the results have been outstanding.

The offense didn't play quite as magnificently as the score indicates. The defense had the Jags pinned back all afternoon, giving the Hawks offense excellent field position. That said, they scored TDs, not FGs. Matt, after starting 10-19 with zero TDs, finished 8-11 with 4 TDs. Housh's demeanor was better, even back into the pre-game warmup where he was shadow boxing with his rave green gloves. We need more of that from him. Carlson was forced to stay in and protect Matt more than normal, but Burleson and Housh more than made up for it.

Justin Forsett finished the game with a 7.2 YPC average, which raises his season YPC total to 5.6. Can we stop dicking around here, and just declare him the starter? The guy is far and away our best runner, our best receiver (out of the backfield), and a great blocker. He is worth at least a full yard per carry more than Julius Jones. I hope they recognize that soon and make the switch. Forsett as a starter doesn't mean we become a fantastic rushing team, but it makes us better. With every other obstacle we are facing, ignoring something that makes you better is unacceptable.

Lastly, I'd give a little plug to our battered kicker, Olindo Mare. He got us on the board with a 47-yard FG into the wind toward the always challenging North end zone. It was a foot note in a blow out, but it got us moving in the right direction.

Nice win.

Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 4

2009-10-08T07:32:00.000-07:00

Barely finding time to sleep lately. Sorry for the sparse posts. Here's the updated power rankings:

GAME THREAD: Hawks @ Colts

2009-10-04T08:29:00.000-07:00

Game thread open for the day. No time for analysis... Hope to see you all in a bit...

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Hawk Blogger 2009 Power Rankings Week 3

2009-09-29T06:55:00.000-07:00

The Hawks continue to drop like a rock, from #1 two weeks ago to #15 in week three. Being out of the Top 10 of these rankings by week three is not a good omen. By this point in the season, these rankings become quite predictive of playoff entry. Taking a look at the Top 10 now, I'd guess that is true again this season. Denver certainly may be inflated by lousy competition, but their performance has been pretty darn impressive nonetheless.