One week can change how a season feels. Monday night will show whether it changed what this team is.

The Bears are the right test. Mike Macdonald and Ben Johnson have each won one round against the other. In 2023, Macdonald’s Ravens held Johnson’s Lions to 6 points in a 38-6 rout. A year later, Johnson got even. Jared Goff completed all 18 of his passes, and Detroit hung 42 points on Macdonald’s first Seattle defense. That defense was missing Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe and Julian Love. Both men now run their own teams, and this is the rubber match.

Caleb Williams is not the quarterback Seattle sacked seven times in a 6-3 win in Chicago two seasons ago. He has grown into the kind of player Johnson’s offense was built for. DVOA ranks Chicago 17th, but that number carries three games with a backup at quarterback. With Williams on the field, the Bears are averaging plus-0.142 EPA per play, a pace that would rank fourth in the NFL.

The stakes are real for both teams. The HB playoff simulator rates this as the most important game left on Seattle’s schedule. Chicago and Seattle look like two teams that will be fighting over the same wild-card spots. Seattle already gave away one NFC game in Washington. It cannot afford a second.

The matchups lean Seattle. Chicago’s offense likes to get big and run the ball, and Seattle stops the run against heavy personnel as well as anyone. The Bears defense has allowed more yards per play than any team in the league. It ranks near the bottom against two-tight-end and fullback sets, which happen to be how Seattle likes to play. Nelson arrives just in time to lead the way, and Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price are expected back behind him.

Chicago still has its answers. Montez Sweat is back from suspension, Kyler Gordon has been a menace since returning in Week 6, and the Bears traded for Jeffery Simmons on Thursday. Monday is the first time all three play together. Their best coverage is Cover 1, and Cover 1 is the one look that has given Seattle the most trouble all year.

Seattle is a 3-point favorite. That feels right only if the Seahawks who played Kansas City show up again. If they do, this offense should have its best night of the season. If the version from the four games before that shows up, Johnson and Williams are good enough to make Seattle pay for every mistake.

Lineup Notes

Charles Cross is out with an ankle injury, so Josh Jones starts at left tackle. That means an entirely new left side, with Nelson at left guard. Grey Zabel moves to right guard, and Jalen Sundell stays at center. Anthony Bradford, who started the Kansas City win, is questionable with a knee injury and would come off the bench.

Charbonnet and Price are both expected to play. Price practiced fully Friday and Saturday and is set to come off injured reserve. Charbonnet was a full participant Saturday after a limited Friday. Rashid Shaheed is out with a knee injury, and Tory Horton should take most of his snaps. Uchenna Nwosu is doubtful with an ankle injury, which makes Connor O’Toole the next edge up. Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II and Drake Thomas all practiced fully Saturday and carry no designation.

For Chicago, running back Kyle Monangai is out. Linebacker D’Marco Jackson and cornerback Malik Muhammad are questionable. T.J. Edwards practiced fully all week after missing the last game with a hamstring injury. Tight end Cole Kmet is on injured reserve after getting hurt last week, and so is safety Coby Bryant, who signed with the Bears after Seattle’s Super Bowl run and has not played this season. Theo Benedet has started at left tackle since Braxton Jones went on injured reserve, with Ozzy Trapilo rotating in on his way back from injury.

Team Overview

Seahawks vs Bears SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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SCORING & TURNOVERS

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

BEARS

POINT DIFFERENTIAL	6th+6.1		7th+5.3
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL	23rd-3.0		27th-4.0

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

EFFICIENCY

Offence minus what the defence allows

NET EPA / PLAY	7th+0.092		10th+0.058
NET SUCCESS RATE	6th+5.4%		5th+5.6%
NET ESCAPE RATE	13th+0.4%		16th-0.3%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA

Season DVOA · the side-by-side matchup lives on the offense and defense graphics

TOTAL DVOA	5th+18.0%		17th+3.4%
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	9th+2.4%		8th+2.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

These teams are closer by point differential than by anything else. Seattle ranks sixth at plus-6.1 a game, Chicago seventh at plus-5.3. DVOA, which adjusts for opponents, sees a bigger gap: Seattle fifth, Chicago 17th.

Neither team takes care of the ball. Seattle is minus-3 in turnover differential, 23rd. Chicago is minus-4, 27th.

Styles Make Fights

Seahawks Offensive Style SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

BEARS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 53% of plays (25th) · 235 plays	26th-0.083		21st+0.016
PLAY ACTION 26% of dropbacks (10th) · 65 plays	12th+0.188		27th+0.250
SHOTGUN 72% of dropbacks (28th) · 179 plays	16th+0.073		9th-0.025
UNDER CENTER 28% of dropbacks (5th) · 69 plays	14th+0.152		28th+0.320
SCREEN 11% of dropbacks (4th) · 28 plays	4th+0.159		2nd-0.606
NO HUDDLE 3% of plays (28th) · 12 plays	7th+0.226		30th+0.460

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Seahawks's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 40% of runs (4th) · 83 plays	30th-0.297		25th-0.051
INSIDE ZONE 17% of runs (16th) · 34 plays	30th-0.375		13th-0.155
MAN 13% of runs (28th) · 26 plays	2nd+0.185		17th-0.120
POWER 12% of runs (5th) · 24 plays	18th-0.113		4th-0.415

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Seattle’s screen game runs into the second-best screen defense in the league. The bigger opening is under center. Chicago ranks 28th defending snaps from under center and 27th against play action. Seattle goes under center on 28% of its dropbacks, fifth most.

Man-blocked runs are Seattle’s best concept, second in EPA per rush. Seattle still calls them on just 13% of its runs. Outside zone makes up 40% and ranks 30th. With Nelson in the lineup, that mix should start to change.

Bears Offensive Style SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

BEARS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 54% of plays (23rd) · 268 plays	9th+0.054		1st-0.181
PLAY ACTION 33% of dropbacks (1st) · 92 plays	17th+0.103		4th-0.135
SHOTGUN 70% of dropbacks (30th) · 194 plays	11th+0.111		5th-0.068
UNDER CENTER 30% of dropbacks (3rd) · 83 plays	12th+0.182		4th-0.258
SCREEN 10% of dropbacks (10th) · 27 plays	7th+0.069		29th+0.288
NO HUDDLE 5% of plays (20th) · 23 plays	15th+0.051		1st-1.014

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Bears's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 45% of runs (2nd) · 111 plays	11th-0.075		11th-0.195
MAN 16% of runs (19th) · 39 plays	3rd+0.137		8th-0.248
INSIDE ZONE 9% of runs (28th) · 23 plays	28th-0.234		26th+0.024
POWER 5% of runs (18th) · 12 plays	20th-0.131		31st+0.457

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Chicago leads the NFL in play-action rate, 33% of dropbacks, and goes under center third most. That plays into Seattle’s hands. The Seahawks rank fourth against both. The Bears are actually better without the frills. With Williams, their dropbacks without play action rank first in the league in EPA.

The screen game is the soft spot again. Seattle ranks 29th defending screens. Chicago ranks seventh running them.

Seahawks Offense vs. Bears Defense

Overview

Seahawks Offense SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

BEARS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	13th24.0		9th20.4
EPA / PLAY	21st-0.042		15th-0.011
SUCCESS RATE	20th42.0%		6th41.1%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	15th9.3%		24th10.6%
ESCAPE RATE	28th34.6%		26th42.7%
TURNOVERS	30th13		16th7
DVOA	22nd-9.1%		18th+3.3%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	15th+18.1%		15th+7.5%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	29th-21.9%		26th-3.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 45% of snaps (28th) · 198 snaps · 76% pass	16th-0.020		3rd-0.146
12 PERSONNEL 28% of snaps (10th) · 123 snaps · 52% pass	22nd-0.039		29th+0.187
21 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (5th) · 59 snaps · 32% pass	12th+0.026		28th+0.153
22 PERSONNEL 8% of snaps (5th) · 36 snaps · 14% pass	14th-0.082		26th+0.524

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

This Bears defense bends more than its rankings suggest. It ranks sixth in success rate allowed and last in yards per play allowed, at 6.3. The gap between those two numbers is big plays. Chicago ranks 24th in explosive play rate allowed and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. It also struggles on early downs, 26th in first-down success rate allowed.

Third down is a different story. The Bears lead the NFL, allowing conversions on 26% of third downs. Seattle’s best path is to avoid third down as much as possible. Win first down, stay ahead of the sticks and take shots.

This is also not the defense on tape. Gordon has been a pass-down weapon since coming off the physically unable to perform list. On 16 pass rushes, he has 5 pressures, 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Sweat got pressure on 13.3% of his rushes before his suspension. Simmons is one of the best defensive tackles in football.

Passing game

Seahawks Passing Game SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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PASSING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

BEARS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	17th+0.095		13th+0.028
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	16th46.0%		6th42.0%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	9th9.2%		25th9.9%
COMPLETION %	17th60.8%		12th59.4%
INTERCEPTION RATE	30th3.3%		16th1.9%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

15th+18.1%

15th+7.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	22nd31.1%		17th29.4%
TIME TO PRESSURE	2nd2.90s		18th2.60s
SACK RATE	18th6.5%		3rd8.5%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	16th-0.294		23rd-0.214
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	5th+0.416		7th+0.196
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	10th45.5%		4th56.5%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 45% of snaps (28th) · 151 dropbacks	19th-0.037		3rd-0.174
12 PERSONNEL 28% of snaps (10th) · 64 dropbacks	13th+0.190		30th+0.462
21 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (5th) · 19 dropbacks	5th+0.420		29th+0.693

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is Bears's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 37% of their snaps (7th) · 55 dropbacks	11th+0.216		29th+0.381
NICKEL 53% of their snaps (20th) · 139 dropbacks	21st-0.019		9th-0.039
DIME 9% of their snaps (12th) · 28 dropbacks	6th+0.437		2nd-0.579

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Cover 1 is the Bears’ best coverage, second in the league. It is Seattle’s worst, 31st. That is the single worst matchup on either side of this game.

Seattle did crack man coverage against Kansas City, going 7 of 9 for 94 yards. One game does not erase six. The coverage to attack is Cover 3, where Chicago ranks 29th.

Chicago blitzes on 39.6% of dropbacks, well above the league’s 30%. That may help Seattle. The Seahawks average plus-0.20 EPA per play when blitzed and minus-0.03 when they are not, the opposite of most offenses.

The four-man rush is the bigger threat, and Sweat is the reason. He has lined up against the right tackle on 111 of his 135 matchups with a tackle this season. That is Abraham Lucas.

Darnold can take care of a lot of this himself. Against Kansas City, he got rid of the ball in 2.32 seconds, his fastest game of the season. His share of throws out in under 2.5 seconds has climbed in each of his last five games, from 33% to 68%. Quick pressures fell to 13.3% of dropbacks, down from 21.4% over the first six games.

The protection plan changed too. Tight ends handled 89% of Seattle’s chips against Kansas City, up from 61%, which kept the backs free to run routes. Expect the same help for Lucas against Sweat.

Nelson helps too. He has not allowed a one-on-one sack in 50 straight games, nearly 2,000 snaps. He has also held his own against Simmons in recent seasons: an 11% pressure rate with no sacks when matched up one-on-one. Zabel faced Simmons alone five times last season and did not allow a pressure.

Receiving game

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 867 yards through seven games. He needs 82 more to pass his own record for the best eight-game start by a Seahawk since 1999. Chicago’s cornerbacks have struggled this season. Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson both rank among the 10 worst corners in the NFL in passer rating allowed. Malik Muhammad, the best of the group this year, is questionable with a toe injury.

The Bears rank seventh against WR1s and fourth against WR3s. They rank 27th against WR2s and 25th against tight ends. With Shaheed out, Horton gets the WR2 matchup. AJ Barner should find room against linebackers who have been stretched thin by injuries.

Cooper Kupp is the other man-beater. He averages plus-0.335 EPA per target against man coverage this season.

Run game

Seahawks Run Game SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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RUNNING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

BEARS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	29th-0.155		19th-0.037
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	24th38.9%		13th41.2%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	20th9.4%		22nd11.8%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

29th-21.9%

26th-3.5%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	32nd41.2%		4th54.5%
STUFFED RATE	25th20.1%		18th17.6%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 45% of snaps (28th) · 52 rushes	5th+0.162		17th+0.000
12 PERSONNEL 28% of snaps (10th) · 61 rushes	28th-0.224		16th-0.057
21 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (5th) · 40 rushes	15th-0.161		13th-0.146

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is Bears's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 37% of their snaps (7th) · 77 rushes	25th-0.212		21st-0.041
NICKEL 53% of their snaps (20th) · 55 rushes	21st-0.046		17th-0.011
DIME 9% of their snaps (12th) · 4 rushes	3rd+1.086		3rd-0.318

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Seattle ranks 29th in EPA per rush. Chicago ranks fourth in power success, and Seattle ranks last. The way in is heavy personnel. The Bears rank 29th against 12 personnel, 28th against 21 and 26th against 22. Seattle uses all three more than most teams.

Seattle already started down this road against Kansas City. The coaches called more power and man-blocked runs, leaned on 22 personnel and got 100 yards from Wilson. Expect more of the same.

Run left. Seattle’s gap-scheme man runs to the left have produced plus-0.39 EPA per carry on 15 tries. That is Nelson’s side now. He has 13.3 positive run blocks per 100 run snaps, against 7.6 for the average guard.

Both backs should play. Price brings the long runs, with 18% of his carries going for 10 or more yards. Charbonnet brings the short-yardage running and the blitz pickup. George Holani has allowed 18.4 pressures per 100 pass blocks this season. Charbonnet allowed about 6 per 100 in 2023 and 2024. Put Nelson and the two backs together, and the projection adds about 2.4 expected points a game to this offense, most of it on the ground. Wilson just ran for 100 yards against Kansas City. Seattle has not had this many options in the backfield all season.

Bears key advantages on defense

Cover 1 and third down. Dennis Allen builds a new plan for every opponent, and Gordon gives him a pass-down weapon he can line up anywhere. Sweat against Lucas could decide a few drives. Simmons gives the Bears an interior player who can wreck a game on his own.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

A secondary that gives up big plays. A defense that struggles against heavy personnel and on first down. Nelson’s run blocking. Smith-Njigba against corners who have struggled all season. Watch out for Tory Horton and Cooper Kupp playing larger roles in this one as well.

Bears Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Overview

Seahawks Defense SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

BEARS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	8th25.7		4th17.9
EPA / PLAY	12th+0.047		2nd-0.134
SUCCESS RATE	10th46.7%		2nd36.5%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	9th10.5%		2nd5.2%
ESCAPE RATE	13th42.4%		3rd34.2%
TURNOVERS	25th11		3rd10
DVOA	14th+4.2%		1st-24.7%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	12th+25.7%		2nd-22.0%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	15th-6.0%		3rd-28.3%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 47% of snaps (26th) · 236 snaps · 66% pass	4th+0.160		4th-0.128
12 PERSONNEL 34% of snaps (4th) · 170 snaps · 49% pass	23rd-0.064		3rd-0.149
13 PERSONNEL 17% of snaps (4th) · 85 snaps · 40% pass	17th-0.002		1st-0.480

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Seattle’s defense ranks first in DVOA and second in EPA per play, success rate and explosive play rate. Chicago’s season numbers rank in the middle of the league, but those include the games without Williams.

The Bears have a two-speed offense. With Williams, Chicago ranks first in the NFL in EPA per play out of 11 personnel. In 12 personnel, it drops to 28th. Two- and three-tight-end sets make up 57% of their snaps, against 33% league-wide. Seattle ranks third against 12 personnel and first against 13. Kmet’s injury may push Johnson toward more three-receiver sets, which is exactly where Chicago is most dangerous.

Pass game

Seahawks Pass Defense SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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PASSING

BEARS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	10th+0.133		2nd-0.107
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	8th49.8%		2nd39.0%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	5th10.5%		1st3.5%
COMPLETION %	5th64.0%		8th57.8%
INTERCEPTION RATE	16th1.9%		3rd3.5%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

12th+25.7%

2nd-22.0%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	24th32.4%		4th36.4%
TIME TO PRESSURE	4th2.81s		14th2.56s
SACK RATE	19th6.5%		10th6.8%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	4th-0.028		9th-0.353
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	22nd+0.240		2nd+0.075
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	6th44.1%		11th52.8%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 47% of snaps (26th) · 155 dropbacks	6th+0.177		4th-0.139
12 PERSONNEL 34% of snaps (4th) · 84 dropbacks	14th+0.149		10th+0.026
13 PERSONNEL 17% of snaps (4th) · 34 dropbacks	21st+0.024		1st-0.758

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Bears FACED · usage is Seahawks's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 11% of their snaps (31st) · 8 dropbacks	19th+0.099		3rd-0.306
NICKEL 69% of their snaps (9th) · 172 dropbacks	11th+0.093		6th-0.115
DIME 19% of their snaps (3rd) · 67 dropbacks	7th+0.422		12th-0.090

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Williams holds the ball 3.07 seconds before throwing, longest in the league. He is pressured on 44% of dropbacks and sacked on 8%. He is still positive when pressured, plus-0.14 EPA per dropback, against minus-0.345 for the average quarterback. Seattle ranks fourth in pressure rate without needing to blitz. The soft spot on Chicago’s line is left guard Joe Thuney. That is where Byron Murphy II, with a 13.1% pressure rate, and Williams, at 9.7%, will look to get home.

Williams breaks the pocket on 32% of his dropbacks, second most in the NFL. Seattle forces quarterbacks out of the pocket more than any defense in the league. Once they are out, throws on the move against Seattle rank fourth best in the league. The scramble is the problem. Drake Maye scrambled six times in Week 1, and five of them moved the chains. Williams scrambles on 9.3% of his dropbacks, nearly double the league rate.

Coverage will be the chess match. Williams is the best quarterback in the NFL against Cover 2 and third best against Cover 4. Seattle plays two-high shells on 58% of its dropbacks. His worst coverage is Cover 1, where Seattle ranks first in the league. Macdonald rarely calls it, just 10% of the time. History says he does not need to. Against quarterbacks who beat two-high coverage, he has played more of it, not less, and they have averaged minus-0.09 EPA per dropback against it. Those same quarterbacks averaged plus-0.20 against everyone else’s.

Receiving game

Seattle’s soft spot in coverage is the middle of the field, where the linebackers live. Ernest Jones IV has allowed 24 catches on 29 targets. Colston Loveland lines up inside on 74% of his routes, and Luther Burden III on 57%. Burden is the kind of receiver who can hurt Seattle. He is dangerous after the catch, and Seattle has struggled with tackle breakers on screens.

Rome Odunze does his damage deep, with an average depth of target of 14.5 yards. That is where Seattle gives up the least. Seattle allows the lowest explosive pass rate in the league, 3.5%.

D’Andre Swift ranks fourth among backs in receiving DVOA. Seattle ranks 16th against running backs. That is the one spot where Chicago has a real weapon against an average Seattle matchup.

Running game

Seahawks Run Defense SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

RUNNING

BEARS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	13th-0.016		3rd-0.124
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	13th43.9%		1st33.7%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	16th10.5%		3rd7.4%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

15th-6.0%

3rd-28.3%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	20th60.7%		15th63.6%
STUFFED RATE	7th15.5%		4th21.9%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 47% of snaps (26th) · 91 rushes	3rd+0.167		14th-0.041
12 PERSONNEL 34% of snaps (4th) · 92 rushes	27th-0.219		2nd-0.260
13 PERSONNEL 17% of snaps (4th) · 54 rushes	11th+0.005		10th-0.276

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Bears FACED · usage is Seahawks's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 11% of their snaps (31st) · 37 rushes	21st-0.144		1st-0.354
NICKEL 69% of their snaps (9th) · 120 rushes	7th+0.064		5th-0.147
DIME 19% of their snaps (3rd) · 14 rushes	1st+3.955		17th+0.455

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Swift has a rushing touchdown in three straight games and seven on the season. One more breaks Matt Forte’s mark for the most through eight games by a Bear since 1999. Monangai, who has split the work with Swift, is out.

Chicago runs outside zone on 45% of its runs, second most in the league, and it has not worked that well. With Williams, its outside zone runs average minus-0.14 EPA. Its man-blocked runs are much better, plus-0.37 on 20 carries. Seattle ranks first in rush success rate allowed. Kansas City ran 16 times for 50 yards in Seattle last week.

The Bears line is good at creating space on the edges, and setting the edge is how Seattle stops that. Nwosu is doubtful, and losing him would hurt there. Connor O’Toole is the next edge up.

Bears key advantages on offense

Williams off script. Three-receiver sets. Screens to Burden and Swift against a defense that ranks 29th against them. Johnson also had 11 days to prepare after playing on a Thursday.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

A pass rush that gets home without blitzing against a quarterback who holds the ball. Cover 1, if Macdonald wants it. Elite play against heavy personnel. The last time Williams faced this defense, he was sacked seven times.

The red zone is the one place to worry. Seattle ranks 31st, allowing touchdowns on 68.8% of trips inside the 20.

Special Teams

Seahawks Special Teams SEA vs CHI · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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OVERALL Estimated points above average

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

BEARS

SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	9th+2.4%		8th+2.5%
FIELD GOALS & XP	7th3.9		25th-3.6

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

SEAHAWKS KICKING & COVERING

KICKOFFS vs BEARS KICK RETURN	27th-4.3		22nd-1.4
PUNTING vs BEARS PUNT RETURN	1st7.7		8th0.7

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

SEAHAWKS RETURNING

KICK RETURN vs BEARS KICKOFFS	31st-4.8		2nd6.6
PUNT RETURN vs BEARS PUNTING	4th2.8		6th3.1

Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 7 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Special teams are close overall. Seattle ranks ninth in special teams DVOA, Chicago eighth. Seattle ranks seventh on field goals and extra points. Chicago ranks 25th.

Seattle’s punting ranks first. The return game is the weak spot again. Seattle ranks 31st in kick return, against a Bears kickoff unit that ranks second.

Key to a Bears win

Williams makes plays off script and turns scrambles into first downs. Allen’s pressure packages and new defensive line speeds up Darnold, and forces turnovers.

Key to a Seahawks win

Communication across a newly configured offensive line, both pre-snap and during the play. Avoid obvious passing situations, and continue to get the ball out quickly.

The days are getting shorter in the Pacific Northwest. Rain has started to fall. It is the gloomy period that keeps most people away from this region, and what makes it lush with vibrant green forests and endless rivers and lakes. What scares others, draws us here. Making it through your first Seattle fall and winter is a test many do not pass. Those who do, are granted passage to something truly special. A shared secret, that only those who cherish a sweater or hoodie as much as a swimsuit would understand. People here endure the gloom to enjoy the best of what this planet has to offer. Mike Macdonald’s ode to Seattle came in his first team speech in 2024, “It’s shitty for them. It’s just right for us.” The Seahawks recaptured that sentiment on a clear autumn night against the franchise with the most Super Bowl rings of any in the past decade. They stopped punishing themselves, and started punishing their opponent. The turnaround was so jarring, it felt like stepping out of a driving rain and into a cozy couch under a heated blanket. The hope was this was not a rare lucid moment for a team who forgot what made them great, but a return to normal.

What the Seahawks did to the Chiefs last night will play in Kansas City theaters as a prelude to Halloween. Move over Michael Myers, Michael Macdonald is the new word in horror. His defense undressed Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, and yes, Kenneth Walker III, on national television. This was the worst offensive performance of the Mahomes era in Kansas City. They never reached the red zone (first time in his career). They scored 3 points (tied for fewest). Their longest play was 19 yards (tied for shortest). They had 11 first downs (fewest). There were only 213 yards (2nd-fewest).

The Chiefs entered this game undefeated, with the best point differential in the NFL, and the 2nd-best ranking in DVOA. Their offense was 2nd in success rate, 2nd in explosive play rate, and 2nd in epa per rush. They excelled in the screen game, where the Seahawks defense had a few issues. Their interior offensive line is either the best in the NFL, or close to it. They came to Seattle glittering and spotless. They left dark and dusted.

Hidden under the manure that has been the Seahawks offense for four weeks was a Seahawks defense that has been better than the 2025 unit. This game only made the improvement that much clearer.

Dark Side getting darker? 2025 vs. 2026, regular season Weeks 1–7. League rank (of 32) beside each number.

Scoring and yards

2025

2026

Rank

Points allowed per game

19.46th

17.94th

▲ 2

Yards allowed per game

305.910th

233.91st

▲ 9

Down to down

2025

2026

Rank

EPA per play allowed

−0.0369th

−0.1342nd

▲ 7

Success rate allowed

41.3%8th

36.5%2nd

▲ 6

Third-down conversions allowed

35.6%10th

28.0%2nd

▲ 8

Pass defense

2025

2026

Rank

EPA per dropback

+0.05617th

−0.1072nd

▲ 15

Yards per dropback

5.495th

4.521st

▲ 4

20+ yard pass plays (per dropback)

7.6%13th

3.6%1st

▲ 12

Sack rate

7.3%12th

6.8%10th

▲ 2

Pressure rate

33.9%13th

40.8%10th

▲ 3

Run defense

2025

2026

Rank

EPA per carry

−0.2431st

−0.1772nd

▼ 1

Yards per carry

2.981st

3.312nd

▼ 1

10+ yard runs (per carry)

3.6%1st

6.4%4th

▼ 3

Takeaways

2025

2026

Rank

Takeaways per game

1.1414th

1.4311th

▲ 3

The context

2025

2026

Change

Opponents’ offense in their other games (EPA per play)

+0.013 (league +0.011)

+0.016 (league +0.013)

Even

Held opponents below their own norm by

0.049 EPA/play

0.150 EPA/play

3x

Points per drive after a kickoff, punt or missed FG

1.49

1.22

−18%

Seattle offensive giveaways

11

13

+2

Points allowed tied to those giveaways

36 of 136 (26.5%)

47 of 125 (37.6%)

+11 pts

Green: better rank than 2025. Red: worse. EPA is expected points added; lower is better for a defense. Pressure counts hurries, hits and sacks; pressure was charted higher league-wide in 2026 (league average 31.8% in 2025, 39.2% in 2026), so compare its rank. Opponents’ other games leave out their games against Seattle. Giveaways are Seattle’s interceptions and lost fumbles on offense. Sources: nflverse play-by-play, Sumer Sports (pressure). HawkBlogger

Nobody wants to face this group. Other fanbases find joy in other teams having to go up against the Seahawks defense once the punishment is in the rearview mirror.

This is the scariest unit in the NFL. The 49ers may have won here, but it was not because of their offense. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are in the conversation, as is the Vikings defense. None of those have hoisted a Lombardi Trophy. None of those have Macdonald pulling the strings.

One area that has been a question has been edge rush. The Chiefs were missing both of their starting tackles, but Seattle’s best pass rushers have been on the interior. Derick Hall signed an extension this offseason. His sack numbers have gone up, but his overall pressure rate and performance has not been the step forward the team would have hoped for. That changed Sunday night.

Derick Hall vs. Kansas City His best pass-rush games, 2023 to now

6 pressures, tied for 3rd in his 58 games

32% pressure rate, his highest in one game

4 pass-rush wins on 19 rushes

Game	Rushes	Press.	Rate	Wins
2025 Wk 12 at Tennessee	26	8	31%	8
2024 Wk 3 vs. Miami	23	7	30%	2
2026 Wk 7 vs. Kansas City	19	6	32%	4
2024 Wk 7 at Atlanta	25	6	24%	5
2026 Wks 1-6, per game	18.8	2.2	12%	1.8
His other 57 games, per game	16.8	2.1	13%	1.7

He also had a sack, a tackle for loss and a forced fumble against the Chiefs. He’s done all three in one game four times: Miami and the Giants in 2024, the Super Bowl, and Sunday.

Pressures are hurries, hits and sacks. Rate is pressures per pass rush. Regular season and playoffs, 2023-2026. Sumer charted more pressures across the league in 2026, so this year’s rates run a little high next to older games. Data: Sumer Sports. Graphic: Hawk Blogger.

This was the highest pressure rate game of Hall’s career. Did he take advantage of a backup tackle? Yes. One of the biggest secrets in the NFL is how many great pass rushers pile up their numbers against weak competition. In this case, Kahlil Benson is a backup, but not a bad player. He was named AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month. Hall got him for 3 pressures and his sack.

It also stood out compared to Uchenna Nwosu and Demarcus Lawrence, who have been the better edge rushers so far this season, but did not have numbers close to what Hall posted in this game. Lawrence had a 7.7% pressure rate and Nwosu was 14.3%. Dante Fowler Jr. had his most productive pressure game in small snaps (2 pressures in 6 pass rushes).

As impactful as Hall was, Nick Emmanwori stole the show. He terrorized Mahomes behind the line of scrimmage and ran effortlessly with the man who set the combine record for 40-yard dash (4.21s), Xavier Worthy, 30 yards downfield despite weighing 60 pounds more.

Stats do not capture Emmanwori’s value. He is like the gene-spliced monsters from Jurassic World, taking the speed and stealth of the velociraptor and merging it with the power of the tyrannosaurus rex. He is also the cryptex for this defense. He unlocks Macdonald’s most devious plans, and keeps offenses constantly guessing.

Seeing an offense equipped with Mahomes and Walker that hopeless and inept had to be unsettling for every team in the league. This defense is the headline, but they finally have a worthy companion.

Offense joins the party

Scoring 20 points in a game is not usually something to celebrate. The scoreboard can be deceiving. This was arguably the best performance of the year for the Seahawks offense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is challenging the depth of adjectives in the english language. He was sublime in this one.

The Chiefs have good outside corners. It did not matter. Smith-Njigba took turns torturing all of them. Credit to Brian Fleury for a game plan that put his best player in position to win, time and again. Interestingly, Seattle ran the ball at a higher rate on 1st down (72%) than other games this season, but when they did pass, it was far more successful.

The passing success rate on 1st down was 75% (6 of 8). There were some cleverly scouted quick screens to JSN that were easy throws for Sam Darnold and easy yards for the offense.

Their 3rd down plan was better than it has been all season. There were slants and go routes, and a bushel of conversions.

Everything tied back to the protection plan that made each throw possible.

Seattle's Pass Protection vs. Kansas City Week 7 against Seattle's first six games · 2026 dropbacks

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Seattle's offense Darnold's quickest game of the season

vs. KC

Change

Wks 1-6

Time to throw NFL Wks 1-6: 2.71s	2.32s 28 timed		2.88s 196 timed
Time to pressure NFL Wks 1-6: 2.54s	2.60s 10 pressures		2.59s 102 pressures
Quick pressure rate Within 2.5s, per dropback · NFL 19.0%	13.3% 4 of 30		21.4% 47 of 220
Pressure rate Per dropback · NFL 39.2%	33.3% 10 of 30		46.4% 102 of 220
Sacks Per dropback	0 0.0%		16 7.3%

Source: Sumer Sports charting · regular season

Bar = size of the change · green, better vs. KC · quick = pressure within 2.5sHAWKBLOGGER

Darnold had his fastest time to throw game of the season. He was around 2.02 seconds in the first half. That is lightning quick. He was over 3.1 seconds before the Broncos game. Over 67% of his throws came in under 2.5 seconds. That is the thing he can do to help himself and this offense the most.

Throwing quickly did not help last week because the protection was allowing quick pressure (under 2.5s). That dipped significantly versus KC. HB Daily and HB Mornings covered how the return of Anthony Bradford could be a bigger part of the solution than people might have expected, given his bad reputation as a pass protector.

He allows Jalen Sundell to slide where he is most needed instead of always helping the right side and leaving Grey Zabel on his own. That showed up Sunday night.

How Seattle protected against Kansas City Seattle dropbacks, Week 7 against Weeks 1–6, 2026

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Sundell's slide Share of dropbacks, left or right

Left

Center

Right

Week 7 vs KC No slide: 5 of 30 (16.7%)	53.3% 16 of 30		30.0% 9 of 30
Weeks 1–6 No slide: 19 of 218 (8.7%)	40.8% 89 of 218		50.5% 110 of 218

Which side got the chips Share of all chips

Left

Center

Right

Week 7 vs KC 9 chips	66.7% 6 of 9		33.3% 3 of 9
Weeks 1–6 57 chips	50.9% 29 of 57		49.1% 28 of 57

Kept in to block

A back or tight end who stayed in to pass block

5-man protectionNo one kept inUp 15.5 pts
Week 7 vs KC	80.0% 24 of 30
Weeks 1–6	64.5% 142 of 220
6 or more blockersOne or more kept inDown 15.5 pts
Week 7 vs KC	20.0% 6 of 30
Weeks 1–6	35.5% 78 of 220
7 or more blockersTwo kept inDown 0.3 pts
Week 7 vs KC	3.3% 1 of 30
Weeks 1–6	3.6% 8 of 220

Chips

A route runner who chipped before he released

Dropbacks with a chipUp 7.3 pts
Week 7 vs KC	30.0% 9 of 30
Weeks 1–6	22.7% 50 of 220
Chips by a tight endShare of all chips, lined up at tight endUp 27.5 pts
Week 7 vs KC	88.9% 8 of 9
Weeks 1–6	61.4% 35 of 57

Any help (chips, extra blockers)

A chip, a back or tight end kept in, or both

Dropbacks with helpDown 13.2 pts
Week 7 vs KC	40.0% 12 of 30
Weeks 1–6	53.2% 117 of 220

Pressure

Sumer counts hurries, hits and sacks

All dropbacksDown 13.1 pts
Week 7 vs KC	33.3% 10 of 30
Weeks 1–6	46.4% 102 of 220
With helpChip or extra blockerDown 15.4 pts
Week 7 vs KC	33.3% 4 of 12
Weeks 1–6	48.7% 57 of 117
Without helpFive-man protection, no chipDown 10.4 pts
Week 7 vs KC	33.3% 6 of 18
Weeks 1–6	43.7% 45 of 103

Source: Sumer Sports charting · Regular season

Navy is Week 7, gray is Weeks 1–6. Left and right are the offense's. One game is 30 dropbacks.

HAWKBLOGGER

Sundell helped Zabel more and that meant zero quick pressure surrendered by Zabel after giving up a few against the Broncos. They also chose to use the tight ends to chip and help instead of the running backs. The backs had been a huge part of the protection problem. This was a smart adjustment.

They actually kept in fewer blockers. They just chipped more often, and with more effective players.

Grey Zabel vs. Kansas City Left guard · Week 7 against his first six games · 2026 dropbacks

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Pass protection Drew Chris Jones on 13 of 30 snaps

vs. KC

Change

Wks 1-6

Pressure rate allowed NFL guards Wks 1-6: 5.4%	6.7% 2 of 30		6.4% 14 of 220
Quick pressures allowed Within 2.5s · NFL guards 2.6%	0.0% 0 of 30		2.7% 6 of 220
Avg time when beaten Higher is better · NFL guards 2.54s	2.88s		2.47s
Sacks · hits · hurries Allowed	0 · 0 · 2		2 · 1 · 11
Blocks lost Per snap · NFL guards 8.0%	6.7% 2 of 30		9.5% 21 of 220
Penalties Accepted, every snap	1 1 game		2 6 games

Source: Sumer Sports charting · penalties nflverse · regular season

Pressures allowed vs. KC (2)

Time

Rusher

Result

2nd & 3 Q2 00:23	2.88s to pressure	Peter Woods	Interception Hurry · thrown at 3.46s
3rd & 9 Q3 12:55	2.87s to pressure	Chris Jones	Scramble Hurry

Source: Sumer Sports charting · blocker-rusher pairs

Bar = size of the change · green, better vs. KC · quick = pressure within 2.5sHAWKBLOGGER

Abraham Lucas vs. Kansas City Right tackle · Week 7 against his first six games · 2026 dropbacks

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Pass protection Two of his three pressures were Karlaftis

vs. KC

Change

Wks 1-6

Pressure rate allowed NFL tackles Wks 1-6: 6.1%	10.0% 3 of 30		7.7% 17 of 220
Quick pressures allowed Within 2.5s · NFL tackles 2.9%	3.3% 1 of 30		4.1% 9 of 220
Avg time when beaten Higher is better · NFL tackles 2.55s	3.02s		2.66s
Sacks · hits · hurries Allowed	0 · 1 · 2		2 · 3 · 12
Blocks lost Per snap · NFL tackles 9.0%	10.0% 3 of 30		10.5% 23 of 220
Penalties Accepted, every snap	0 1 game		3 6 games

Source: Sumer Sports charting · penalties nflverse · regular season

Pressures allowed vs. KC (3)

Time

Rusher

Result

3rd & 7 Q2 08:30	3.76s to pressure	George Karlaftis	Incomplete Hit · thrown at 3.95s
3rd & 9 Q3 12:55	2.87s to pressure	R. Mason Thomas	Scramble Hurry
3rd & 15 Q3 08:17	2.44s to pressure	George Karlaftis	Incomplete Hurry · thrown at 4.24s

Source: Sumer Sports charting · blocker-rusher pairs

Bar = size of the change · green, better vs. KC · quick = pressure within 2.5sHAWKBLOGGER

The performance for Lucas looks worse than it was. Not all pressures are equal. One of them was in 3.76 seconds. All three of them were on 3rd and long. None of them resulted in a sack. The average time when beaten tells a more accurate story of how he took a step forward.

Get the ball out fast. Get rid of quick pressures. Get a better run game. Beat man coverage. That was the get-well plan. Seeing the coaches and players make that much progress in one week was impressive.

They went from a rapid turnaround from a Sunday loss to the 49ers to a Thursday night game that there was no real practice time or adjustments to be made.

Bradford coming back certainly helped. Emanuel Wilson did a better job reading his cutback. Fleury also adjusted his run calls, shifting more to inside zone and more man concepts. That better suits Wilson’s strengths, and he had his best day on the ground. Overall, more runs were successful (41%) and fewer got stuffed (15%). They did it against a Chiefs defense that loaded the box on 54% of snaps, the most of any game this season by a Seahawks opponent.

They also had their best game of the season against man coverage. They also saw the bootleg make a nice return appearance, and they got the tight ends involved. There was a lot to like.

This felt sustainable. It looked like something that could grow with a few additional players added to the mix when Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price return. Seattle also faces one of the weaker remaining schedules in terms of opposing defenses after facing a ton of tough defenses to start the year.

The turnaround was remarkable. In fact, there has only been one other stretch of four games as bad as the previous four had been for the Seahawks offense, that then had a game as efficient and productive as this one was for the Seahawks. That came in 2010 when the Seahawks limped into the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner and then had the Beast Quake game against the Saints. Think about that. Of every five game stretch since 1999, this was only the second time a Seattle offense had been that bad for four games and then that good the next game.

That sets them up for a huge game against the Bears on Monday Night football. More than that, it allows every man in that locker room to look at each other and see the team they know themselves to be. Fleury can hopefully settle in and build on a formula that worked. Darnold can do the same. They are not out of the woods yet, but they are built in the PNW. They welcome the woods, and the darkness that is to come.

Most will frame it as a mistake Seattle made. The truth is likely less clearcut. There is reason to believe Walker did not want to come back. What we do know is there was at least one team out there willing to pay him more money than Seattle. That team feels pretty happy about their decision. Seattle likely will need a little more time with their rookie runner, Jadarian Price, and soon-to-be-returning, starter, Zach Charbonnet, before truly feeling any regret.

Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba gave Seattle two of the best playmakers in football on the same field. Defenses had to account for both. This year Smith-Njigba carries that load alone, and it has been a heavy one.

Walker comes back to Lumen Field having topped 100 yards in four of his five games for the unbeaten Chiefs. Seattle has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games. James Cook was the last to do it, on Oct. 27, 2024. Walker deserves cheers when he runs out of the tunnel. Then the attention turns to seeing that streak live to see 36.

Walker has done more for Kansas City than pile up yards. He changed the way teams defend Patrick Mahomes. Defenses spent the past few seasons sitting in light boxes and daring the Chiefs to run. Mahomes averaged 7.0, 6.7 and 7.1 yards per attempt the last three years. Now teams have to load up for Walker, and Mahomes looks like Mahomes again.

Light boxes (six or fewer) against the Chiefs: 56.2% last year to 42.1% this year

Heavy boxes (eight or more): 18.8% to 28.8%

Mahomes yards per attempt: 7.1 to 8.3

The Seahawks are living the opposite story. Nobody respects their run game anymore.

Heavy boxes against Seattle: 37.3% last year to 24.3% this year

Light boxes: 30.2% to 39.1%

Two-high shells on dropbacks: 51.7% to 62.8%

That leaves Sam Darnold beating two-high coverage from the pocket, without a run game to pull a safety down. It has not gone well. Seattle ranks 24th in EPA per play and 30th with 12 giveaways. Five lost fumbles alone have cost the offense about 4.4 points per game. All three Seattle losses came by 3 points or fewer.

The strangest number on this offense might be the three-and-outs. Seattle has the seventh-fewest in the NFL. That is not a compliment. The Seahawks would be better off punting more. Drives that end in a giveaway after one or two plays are far worse than a three-and-out.

Seattle gets 10 days to prepare after its Thursday night loss in Denver. Mike Macdonald is 6-1 as a head coach with 10 or more days to prepare, and his teams have beaten the spread by an average of 15.2 points in those games. On a normal week, that margin is about 2 points. Give Macdonald extra time, and he uses it.

He will need all that time and more to prepare for this matchup. Seattle wins with its interior defensive line. Kansas City may have the best interior offensive line in football. The Chiefs are weakest at tackle, and Seattle’s edge rushers have not cashed in against weak tackles this season. Seattle has been awful against man coverage, and the Chiefs play plenty of it. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has spent his career picking apart protection plans, including Kyle Shanahan’s in two Super Bowls. Seattle’s protection is the part of this offense most in need of repair.

There are reasons for hope. Anthony Bradford and Zach Charbonnet are expected back. Tory Horton should see more snaps. Kansas City has its own tackle trouble. Left tackle Josh Simmons has not played all season, and right tackle Jaylon Moore missed practice Wednesday with a concussion. The Chiefs could line up with two backups on the edges. They also have yet to see a defense as good as Seattle’s.

Kansas City is the better team right now. Vegas still has Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite, and the HB Model has the Seahawks by about a point. The matchups lean Kansas City. Seattle needs to play a clean game on offense, and it has not played one yet with Darnold at quarterback. The path is clear enough. Stop Walker on the ground. Take away the screen game. Protect the football. Do those three things, and a win over the unbeaten Chiefs flips the script on what has been a troubling four weeks.

Lineup Notes

Bradford was limited in practice Wednesday and has been designated to return from injured reserve. Charbonnet was a full participant and needs to come off the physically unable to perform list. Both are expected to play.

Bradford matters more than people think. He allowed pressure at about half the rate of the players who replaced him at right guard. He also frees center Jalen Sundell to help Grey Zabel again. Zabel has allowed pressure on 1.5% of his snaps with help from the center and 13% when left alone. He has been alone on almost half his snaps.

Drake Thomas missed practice again. Tyrice Knight is next up at linebacker, and he was limited with an oblique injury. DeMarcus Lawrence got a rest day.

For Kansas City, Rashee Rice (hamstring, knee) did not practice. Tyquan Thornton, the team’s deep threat, is on injured reserve. Travis Kelce was limited with an ankle injury, and L’Jarius Sneed was limited with a knee injury. Both starting tackles sat out. Kahlil Benson, an undrafted rookie, has started at left tackle all season. Joshua Ezeudu took over at right tackle when Moore left last week.

Team Overview

Seahawks vs Chiefs SEA vs KC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

vs

SCORING & TURNOVERS

SEAHAWKS

Advantage

CHIEFS

POINT DIFFERENTIAL	7th+4.3		1st+11.4
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL	21st-3.0		2nd+5.0

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

EFFICIENCY

Offence minus what the defence allows

NET EPA / PLAY	11th+0.059		2nd+0.265
NET SUCCESS RATE	7th+4.3%		1st+11.3%
NET ESCAPE RATE	17th-0.6%		2nd+15.2%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA

Season DVOA · the side-by-side matchup lives on the offense and defense graphics

TOTAL DVOA	10th+11.2%		2nd+28.9%
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA	14th+1.4%		26th-2.2%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 6 · REGULAR SEASON

Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Chiefs lead the NFL in point differential and net success rate. They rank second in net EPA per play and total DVOA. Seattle ranks seventh in point differential and 10th in DVOA. The gap is real, but it is narrower than 5-0 against 3-3 suggests.

The turnover line is the one that hurts. Kansas City is plus-5, second in the league. Seattle is minus-3, 21st.

Styles Make Fights

Seahawks Offensive Style SEA vs KC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHIEFS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 56% of plays (19th) · 211 plays	29th-0.145		5th-0.091
PLAY ACTION 28% of dropbacks (8th) · 60 plays	12th+0.216		19th+0.124
SHOTGUN 72% of dropbacks (28th) · 156 plays	20th+0.013		2nd-0.151
UNDER CENTER 28% of dropbacks (5th) · 62 plays	20th+0.100		21st+0.183
SCREEN 11% of dropbacks (6th) · 23 plays	4th+0.187		4th-0.403
NO HUDDLE 2% of plays (28th) · 9 plays	26th-0.123		5th-0.489

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Seahawks's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 43% of runs (4th) · 71 plays	28th-0.303		7th-0.256
INSIDE ZONE 15% of runs (17th) · 24 plays	28th-0.337		14th-0.120
POWER 12% of runs (3rd) · 20 plays	21st-0.199		11th-0.182
MAN 12% of runs (29th) · 19 plays	5th+0.101		3rd-0.397

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

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The Seahawks rank fourth in screen EPA. The Chiefs rank fourth defending screens. The one thing Seattle has done well all season runs straight into a defense built to stop it.

Seattle’s best run concept is man blocking, fifth in EPA per rush. It calls it on just 12% of its runs. Outside zone makes up 43% of Seattle’s runs and ranks 28th. Kansas City has stopped the few man runs it has seen, but it has seen fewer of them than any defense in the league.

Chiefs Offensive Style SEA vs KC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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TENDENCIES Rank in parentheses is how often they use it, not how well

CHIEFS OFFENSE

Advantage

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
MOTION 59% of plays (15th) · 179 plays	9th+0.062		1st-0.176
PLAY ACTION 35% of dropbacks (1st) · 61 plays	6th+0.315		4th-0.162
SHOTGUN 75% of dropbacks (26th) · 131 plays	10th+0.156		7th-0.053
UNDER CENTER 25% of dropbacks (7th) · 43 plays	5th+0.279		3rd-0.307
SCREEN 17% of dropbacks (1st) · 30 plays	7th+0.114		30th+0.286
NO HUDDLE 0% of plays (32nd) · 1 play	31st-0.719		1st-1.014

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUN CONCEPTS

Chiefs's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
OUTSIDE ZONE 30% of runs (14th) · 44 plays	4th+0.029		14th-0.166
INSIDE ZONE 21% of runs (9th) · 31 plays	4th+0.099		21st-0.028
MAN 13% of runs (25th) · 19 plays	1st+0.199		10th-0.248
POWER 13% of runs (2nd) · 19 plays	16th-0.076		30th+0.443

Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

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The Chiefs lead the NFL in play-action rate (35% of dropbacks) and screen rate (17%). The screens may be the biggest concern in this game. Seattle ranks 30th defending them. Walker in space against a linebacker is not a fair fight.

Kansas City’s best run call is counter, second in the league in EPA per rush. Seattle has not faced a single counter run all season. Expect to see one early.

Seahawks Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Overview

Seahawks Offense SEA vs KC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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OVERVIEW DVOA from FTN; the rest from nflverse plays

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHIEFS DEFENSE

POINTS PER GAME	13th24.7		2nd16.6
EPA / PLAY	24th-0.079		3rd-0.106
SUCCESS RATE	22nd40.9%		3rd38.2%
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE	17th9.1%		5th7.3%
ESCAPE RATE	27th35.2%		2nd33.1%
TURNOVERS	30th12		9th8
DVOA	24th-11.6%		12th-7.4%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 6 · REGULAR SEASON

DVOA BY PHASE

Season DVOA

PASSING vs PASS DEFENSE	18th+12.8%		14th+4.0%
RUSHING vs RUN DEFENSE	30th-25.7%		4th-23.7%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 6 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage

	EPA / PLAY		EPA / PLAY ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 45% of snaps (27th) · 170 snaps · 76% pass	23rd-0.100		4th-0.170
12 PERSONNEL 29% of snaps (10th) · 109 snaps · 54% pass	20th-0.039		12th-0.042
21 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (6th) · 50 snaps · 34% pass	11th+0.038		17th-0.098
22 PERSONNEL 6% of snaps (6th) · 23 snaps · 17% pass	13th-0.066		19th+0.149

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

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Kansas City ranks third in EPA per play on defense and 12th in DVOA, which adjusts for opponents. The raw numbers have been a bit kinder than the schedule.

There is one opening. The Chiefs defense ranks 29th in EPA per play in the first quarter. After that it ranks first, fifth and fifth. Seattle has held a first-half lead in just one of its last three games. The Seahawks need a fast start, and a scripted opening drive with Bradford and Charbonnet back is the place to find one.

Passing game

Seahawks Passing Game SEA vs KC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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PASSING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHIEFS DEFENSE

EPA / DROPBACK	19th+0.038		3rd-0.088
DROPBACK SUCCESS RATE	19th44.5%		4th41.8%
EXPLOSIVE PASS RATE	14th8.5%		8th6.3%
COMPLETION %	18th59.4%		14th59.3%
INTERCEPTION RATE	29th3.3%		10th2.6%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

PASS DVOA

PASS DVOA vs PASS DEFENSE DVOA

18th+12.8%

14th+4.0%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 6 · REGULAR SEASON

PASS PROTECTION

Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats

PRESSURE RATE	25th32.1%		2nd38.7%
TIME TO PRESSURE	2nd2.91s		11th2.51s
SACK RATE	23rd7.3%		28th4.0%

Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON

UNDER PRESSURE

Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures

EPA WHEN PRESSURED	21st-0.389		7th-0.416
EPA FROM A CLEAN POCKET	5th+0.413		6th+0.162
QUICK PRESSURES (≤2.5s)	11th46.1%		5th55.7%

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — PASSING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 45% of snaps (27th) · 130 dropbacks	28th-0.145		3rd-0.198
12 PERSONNEL 29% of snaps (10th) · 59 dropbacks	13th+0.174		8th-0.026
21 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (6th) · 17 dropbacks	5th+0.412		20th+0.241

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is Chiefs's

	EPA / DROPBACK		EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWED
BASE 30% of their snaps (14th) · 40 dropbacks	14th+0.178		18th+0.145
NICKEL 52% of their snaps (24th) · 107 dropbacks	21st-0.035		5th-0.156
DIME 17% of their snaps (7th) · 53 dropbacks	19th+0.038		8th-0.116

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

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The Chiefs pressure the quarterback without finishing.

Chiefs pressure rate: 38.7% (second)

Chiefs sack rate: 4% (28th)

Seattle takes a long time to give up pressure, second at 2.91 seconds. It still ranks 23rd in sack rate.

Man coverage is the biggest problem for this offense. Seattle ranks 31st in EPA per dropback against man. Kansas City plays man on 27.9% of dropbacks and ranks fourth against the pass when it does. Defenses are not playing man any differently against Seattle this year. Seattle is what changed.

EPA per dropback against man: plus-0.21 last year to minus-0.54 this year

Pressure rate against man: 28% to 60%

Free rushers against man: 14% to 27.5%

A free rusher on more than a quarter of those snaps points to the protection calls.

Protection also broke the play-action game, and play action carried the 2025 offense. Early-down play action was worth plus-0.37 EPA per dropback last year. This year it is about zero. With a clean pocket, it works as well as it ever did. The problem is the rush gets home on 52% of those dropbacks, up from 29%.

George Karlaftis is the Chiefs’ best pass rusher. He gets pressure on 18.7% of his rushes, sixth among edge rushers, and he lines up across from left tackles far more than right tackles. That means Charles Cross, Seattle’s best pass blocker. R. Mason Thomas sees right tackles most. He is a speed rusher who will test Abraham Lucas, who has allowed pressure on 7.7% of his snaps, 52nd of 65 tackles. Seattle has not allowed a pressure on the 28 snaps Lucas got a chip this season. Expect more chips.

Chris Jones gets pressure on just 9% of his rushes, 51st among 82 interior rushers. The heat comes from the edges and from Spagnuolo’s calls.

Receiving game

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks third in DVOA among WR1s. The Chiefs rank first against WR1s. Expect brackets. Spagnuolo is one of the best at taking away your top option.

The player matchup model still likes one spot for him. Smith-Njigba projects for 23 yards on the 18 snaps he is likely to share with Nohl Williams, the most beatable corner in Kansas City’s group. Rookie Mansoor Delane has been very good on the other side.

Smith-Njigba is not the same player against man this year. Neither is anyone else.

Smith-Njigba yards per route run against man: 4.11 last year to 1.24 this year

AJ Barner: 2.39 to 0.39

If the Chiefs bracket Smith-Njigba, someone else has to win one-on-one. Barner and Horton are the candidates. Horton played 47% of the snaps in Denver and was Seattle’s best wide receiver against man last year after Smith-Njigba. This is the week to find out what he can do.

Run game

Seahawks Run Game SEA vs KC · 2026 REGULAR SEASON

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RUNNING

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

Advantage

CHIEFS DEFENSE

EPA / RUSH	30th-0.185		9th-0.101
RUSH SUCCESS RATE	23rd37.7%		1st32.8%
EXPLOSIVE RUN RATE	20th9.9%		9th8.8%

Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON

RUSH DVOA

RUSH DVOA vs RUSH DEFENSE DVOA

30th-25.7%

4th-23.7%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 6 · REGULAR SEASON

AT THE LINE

Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line

POWER SUCCESS	32nd30.8%		30th77.8%
STUFFED RATE	26th20.7%		3rd22.2%

Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 6 · REGULAR SEASON

PERSONNEL — RUNNING

Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
11 PERSONNEL 45% of snaps (27th) · 43 rushes	3rd+0.122		17th+0.002
12 PERSONNEL 29% of snaps (10th) · 52 rushes	28th-0.215		14th-0.068
21 PERSONNEL 13% of snaps (6th) · 33 rushes	14th-0.155		11th-0.281

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

DEFENSIVE SHELLS

Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is Chiefs's

	EPA / RUSH		EPA / RUSH ALLOWED
BASE 30% of their snaps (14th) · 56 rushes	28th-0.245		21st-0.059
NICKEL 52% of their snaps (24th) · 63 rushes	20th-0.048		4th-0.172
DIME 17% of their snaps (7th) · 5 rushes	4th+0.813		12th+0.134

Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON

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