The details indicate that this is not likely to result in new 3D projectors showing up at stores next week. The new contract is to “develop and deliver“, which implies that there is more work to be done before they can start production to fulfill orders. Given the fact that we still have not seen a Laser TV for sale anywhere yet, I would suggest that it’s not yet time to start holding your breath.

It’s true that lasers are highly efficient and simplify some of the difficult problems related to light management in front- and rear-projection systems. They can also offer excellent color response and contrast. But they come with their own problems, such as “speckle” which gives solid colors a sparkling, textured appearance.

I expect that lasers will play a role in entertainment displays — especially the tiny ones that will eventually be embedded in cell phones – but I think we’re at least a year away from them being available in commercially significant quantities. So stay tuned…

Data point: Sony Electronics president Stan Glasgow is quoted as being upbeat about consumer electronics sales for the rest of 2008. At the CEA Executive Summit he said “I think the transition in February of next year is a very critical factor in moving people to HD and getting people to buy more high-definition TVs and products.”

Data point: DisplayBank reports that major Taiwanese LCD manufacturer is dialing down production by 10% for July, as orders are down and prices are so low as to affect profitability. AUO is not yet decreasing production, but hasn’t ruled it out.

Data point: HDTV Org reports that there’s a price war going on among United Kingdom HDTV retailers, with big price cuts being made across the board on flat panel TVs. Sales are down 3% over last year.

Who do you believe? Are the rosy predictions of the manufacturers for a great fall and holiday sales season for HDTVs reasonable? Are people going to have enough of their economic stimulus checks available to buy a big flat panel this year?

Or is the tanking stock market, tight credit market, unsettled job market, and soaring costs for food and fuel likely to put a damper on consumer spending for big ticket items? Is the apparent oversupply of LCD panels on the market going to lead to a pile-up in the supply channel of Los Angeles rush-hour freeway proportions? Are the retailers on the bubble like Tweeter and Circuit City going to make moves of desperation in order to generate some cash flow?

Frankly, I don’t think that the transition to digital TV broadcasts is going to have much impact on HDTV sales. I expect that a lot of the people who remain unprepared for the changeover are seniors and low-income families who are not prime candidates for an expensive flat panel in the first place. People are deciding to cancel summer vacation trips because it will cost them an extra $50 for gas; how are they going to justify spending $1,000 for a flat panel (plus the extra monthly cost for HDTV cable service)?

I believe that cash will be king this fall, and that price cuts will show up early and often. If you’ve got the money saved up for a new TV, you’ll find some great prices in time for the first regular season NFL game. And if you can wait until December, I think you’ll see some astounding deals. It will take an economic miracle to produce a big growth in flat panel sales this year, and I don’t think that’s going to happen.

The service also lets subscribers program their DVR over the Internet, using a computer or mobile phone. The service relies on a broadband Internet connection to the DVR to download the requested programming. The company offers a variety of installation options, including wired and wireless Ethernet, or HomePlug networking over AC power lines.

The number of titles is still small compared with the Netflix Player, which offers more than twice as many titles, all of which are free. On the other hand, Netflix is not offering HD content yet, which could tilt in DIRECTV’s favor. In any case, the new service is free if you’re already a subscriber, which is a brilliant move by DIRECTV and shows that electronic delivery of on demand content should be a bargain going forward.

“Based on market conditions and the completion of our initial due diligence process, we have determined that it is not in the best interest of Blockbuster’s shareholders to proceed with an acquisition of Circuit City. We continue to believe in the strategic merits of a consumer retail proposition that would bring media content and electronic devices together under one brand. We will pursue this strategy through our Blockbuster stores as a way to diversify the business and better serve the entertainment retail segment.”

This does not come as a complete surprise, as Circuit City continues to have rocky performance. Also, Blockbuster already has a large investment in brick and mortar locations through their existing rental stores. Do these stores have sufficient space to stock rental movies and still have room to show electronic hardware? Well, how often do you rent a movie that’s not on the outside walls? They can probably free up some space in the middle of the store. And if there’s a strong move to electronic delivery of rental movies (which looks likely), then you need even less space for physical inventory.

Making do with the space they already have would seem to make a lot of sense for Blockbuster at this point. The company is clearly going to have to transition itself to some new business model that does not rely so heavily on the rental of physical discs, and it could be that becoming a consumer electronics store could be one way to diversify.

According to ABI, tru2way implementation is still hindered by reluctance on the cable companies to accept this new technology, even though it may reduce the costs for set top boxes.

It may well be that ABI’s forecasts are on the optimistic side. Very few TVs are available with tru2way yet, so we’re still a way off from the time when most sets will include this feature. In addition, the typical replacement cycle for TV sets in U.S. households is about 8 to 12 years, though that has been accelerated in recent years with the advent of HDTV and digital broadcasts. So it’s unreasonable to expect many households to replace their new flat panel screens over the next five years. It’s possible that a lot of the tru2way implementations will be in set top boxes, but the cable companies are facing plenty of challenges as it is, so an expensive build-out of new boxes to replace others that are still working just fine does not make a lot of economic sense.

Tru2way is certainly a good idea, but it may take a bit longer than forecast to be adopted widely.

The DTVPal has a few nice features, including analog pass-through. This lets you receive analog broadcasts as well as digital broadcasts without changing the settings on your television. This is important now, prior to the February 17, 2009 transition date, so that you can continue to receive the existing analog broadcasts. After the transition, this feature will let you receive the low-power TV stations that do not have to switch to digital on the February cut-off date.

You can connect the box to your TV using either composite video or an antenna wire (RF) connection. If you use the antenna wire connection, you will tune your television to either Channel 3 or Channel 4 to receive the signal from the box.

There are many good converter boxes available on the market, and this would appear to be one of them. It’s interesting that DISH Network is marketing these, because satellite service subscribers won’t be affected by the transition to digital broadcasts. Many households with subscription television service — cable or satellite — often have extra televisions that are not connected to the service, so maybe DISH Network is trying to reach their customers who have such extra TV sets.

Sports fans worldwide have come to expect slow-motion instant replay, so that they can see the action up close and in detail. This feature becomes all the more valuable when the action includes questionable officiating. This feature is commonplace with standard definition productions, but it’s essential to be able to provide the same service in high definition.

The Summer Olympics will be a coming-out party of sorts for HDTV, and the I-Movix cameras will be just one of many behind-the-scenes bits of hardware that will deliver HD coverage to sets around the globe.

Even if Mitsubishi should meet this target ship date, is it too little, too late? A press release from Mitsubishi claims that the new sets use about half as much power as an LCD and about one third as much as a plasma. These are impressive claims, but other reports indicate that the 65″ model will be rated at 200 watts. Now we’re talking. A 47″ LCD HDTV can be rated at 250 watts or higher. And the new Vizio 32″ plasma HDTV (well, almost-720p-HDTV) is also rated at 250 watts. So here’s a laser TV with four times the screen area of the Vizio plasma, yet rated at at 20% less power consumption. That’s noteworthy.

Unfortunately, none of the reports mention price. If the LaserVue costs as much as an equivalent plasma HDTV, I don’t think they’re going to sell many units. It’s not enough to be green; if it’s not a flat panel, you’re going to have to make a compelling price argument. So the big questions outstanding for LaserVue are how much it will cost, and when will it really ship?

So can sports be a driving force for the adoption of video content over the Internet? There are some signs that it may well be a major factor here as well. According to a report in The Bridge, just over 1.8 million unique visitors logged onto the network’s site for March Madness On Demand, which provided free coverage of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. These visitors watched a total of 2.72 million hours of live coverage.

Now make a fast break to this year. The visitor count jumped to more than 4.7 million in 2008: better than a 160% increase. And these visitors watched nearly 5 million hours of streaming content, slightly less than double last year’s figure. CBS eliminated the registration requirement that had been part of the site in prior years, but this alone does not account for the big jump in usage figures.

Now, keep this in persepective. The number of viewers would have to double more than four times before it comes close to the 97.5 million who tuned in to the 2008 SuperBowl (according to Nielsen Media Research). (And the 2008 SuperBowl drew the second largest audience of all time, behind the final episode of Mash.) Still, 4.7 million is a lot of people taking advantage of free live coverage of a sporting event over broadband Internet.

If the past repeats itself, more people will turn to the Internet for sports coverage, and in turn, will start looking at other content available online as well. If you have an Internet connection to your television and you get comfortable using it for sports, you’re more likely to start using it for other programming . I don’t expect that sports will turn Internet video into an overnight success, but the signs are clearly there that interest is growing.

I’ve received some angry email from readers who say that they are cable subscribers and they already have been affected by the switch from analog to digital. And earlier this month, USA TODAY ran an excellent story about the problem many cable subscribers are experiencing as their local cable provider tries to push them to switch from analog to digital service.

Cable companies want to move to digital because it lets them transmit HDTV content. It also lets them transmit more content over the same infrastructure than they can with analog signals, just like the terrestrial broadcasters. And digital makes all sorts of interactive features possible, such as video recording and programming guides.

The problem is that traditional analog sets cannot work with these digital signals. You can get a set-top box (STB) that will connect your analog TV to digital service, but many homes have second or third TV sets that are connected directly to the cable without an STB. Some providers have been cutting back the number of “free” channels included with their basic analog service as a means of encouraging subscribers to switch to digital, but this has been a source of irritation for many customers. The solution may be a digital to analog converter box – something less than a full blown STB — that will take the basic digital cable service signal and convert it for use on an analog TV. And this is an added complication that some subscribers will resist.

The bottom line is that just because you’re a cable subscriber does not mean that you won’t experience hassles with the conversion from analog to digital service. The difference between this and the terrestrial broadcast change, however, is that it is not mandated by the federal government, but is a business decision made by the cable companies.

Due to some unexpected travel coupled with a short vacation, the HDTV Almanac postings for the past week were not put up in a timely manner. I have backfilled the missing days and now am caught up, and I intend to keep up with my weekday publication schedule in the future. So thanks for your patience, and I hope you keep reading the HDTV Almanac.
Alfred Poor