I’ve just added a fantastic plugin that lets me plot my travels on a google map! I’ve just brought it up to date and added it to the blog. Check it out!!!

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I’ve just ended a full week’s stay at the Abraham hostel in Jerusalem, and believe me, it was the most stimulating experience I have had so far in Israel. Despite the fact that the week is still a blur to me, I felt it necessary to jot some notes down on an experience I was lucky to be a part of. If you had asked me before I started traveling this summer whether I ever saw myself going to the West Bank, the answer would have been firmly and unequivocally “No”. Yet, there I was, just three days ago now, on a nearly 12 hour trip through four cities in the West Bank – Palestine. I was fortunate to be included, along with 6 others from the Abraham Hostel, in what would be one of the most mentally exhausting days of my life. At first I was nervous and, I’ll admit, a bit

The 7 of us guests from the hostel departed at 9am, driven across the checkpoint into Bethlehem to be dropped off with our local (Palestinian) guide – Tamer.

Our group

Over the course of the day we would cities such as Bethlehem (a historic Christian city that is vibrant and full of life), Jericho (another historic city that dates as far back as the Old Testament), Taybeh , and Ramallah (the capital of the West Bank). The idea was to travel through the areas with a local guide to get a taste of the past, present, and future of this area. Past, present, and future combined when we went to the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. We were accompanied by a church staff member who explained to us the significance of the church, the layout, and its history in the west bank. Right across the street from the church, a stage was being set up where the area locals could gather to watch the September 20^th UN vote for Palestinian statehood. It was amazing to realize that in such a small area one could participate in so much history, as well as be a part of a future for a seemingly small area that will have a titanic impact on the world…

Stage for UN Vote

Church of the Nativity - Bethlehem

From Bethlehem we drove to Jericho to see Hisham’s Palace, which contains some of the oldest surviving mosaics in the world. For any history buffs, this is also the location of the world renowned Tree of Life mosaic. While in Jericho we also visited the source of the areas freshwater, an underground spring that is pumped and then distributed throughout the town. This is of vital importance to the city because of its close proximity to the Dead Sea and the deathly heat in the area. Somewhere in between driving from site to site, and walking the streets of each city, our guide Tamer would find time to take us to an excellent local falafel shop to enjoy an Arab specialty – Mesabecha (I cant ruin the surprise). Another surprise Tamer treated us to was a visit to the local coffee shop, “Stars and Bucks”. For a second I felt like I was back in America, until I actually read the name printed on the emblem.

Stars & Bucks

After a quick stop at the Taybeh brewery (an authentic palestinian beer) we continued onto Ramallah where we would drive through the city and end our tour at a discotheque that doubles as a pool/bar during the day.

It already seems like a full day, but I’ve left out the two most important parts. The first was the experience of walking along the Security Fence. In Bethlehem, the Security Fence is actually a monolithic wall, topped by coils of barbed wire, and interspersed with manned guard towers. The wall comes right to the edge of a street lined with several businesses and gas stations, simulating the feeling of a narrow alleyway. All along the wall there is graffiti art, pictures of children with hopeful smiles, and quotes from great peace activists such as Martin Luther King Jr.

Security Wall

Graffiti Art

Finally, Tamer, our guide. He completed the trip. He was extremely open, constantly urging us to dialog and ask questions. He discussed his views on the security situation, water shortages in the West Bank, the effects of the checkpoints on his daily life, and his general optimism and hope for a peaceful solution to the conflict. It would take me ten pages to detail our conversations throughout the day, so I’m going to save myself from typing it all and simply request that each and every traveler who comes through the area experience this trip for themselves, and form their own opinions on the matter. In the end, the most important thing to remember is that it is impossible to form an opinion with only one side of the story…

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I’m going to post my comment conversation here and the dilemma that stemmed from it. I’m posting this here in the hopes that you will all share your advice and opinions w/ me w/ regards to this major decision in my life. So here goes nothing:

I began asking Khary how he built an investor group to back him on deals.

Jeff (another reader) responds:

“I think if you’re able to find superbly high quality buildings, with golden tenants, in equal quality locations at cap rates of 12%, you’ll have no problem whatsoever of finding investors.”:

My response to Jeff, and my dilemma:

“Your definitely right on that Jeff. I do find myself w/ another dilemma…

Mind you, I am only 21 so things can change, but I do have a great job + opportunity to work at the highest volume Commercial RE brokerage in my ~120k population college town + surrounding city. My boss wants me to commit to 3 years after graduation (2011-2014). Here’s my dilemma – the cap rates in my city average 5% because of zoning restrictions that do not allow ANY new buildout whatsoever. There is no geographic (space) city expansion. As such, property values don’t fluctuate as widely as other areas (supply is limited, demand grows) but because there is less risk, the cap on buildings does not get as high as in other areas. My goal has always been to learn through brokerage and PM while building an investor group and then to syndicate RE deals starting as soon as is possible.

Knowing that the cap in my town will VERY rarely go above a 5-8% range, do you think it will be difficult/nigh on impossible to find investors?

Do you think that this city will be a “bubble” (That whatever progress I make building an investor group and learning brokerage and PM will not translate to a bigger city because of this cities unique RE characteristics)?

Do you think staying in this smallish city to gain experience at this high volume CRE brokerage is inconsistent w/ my goal of syndicating deals?”

So there it is. Any advice, wisdom, help, knowledge would be appreciated. If you could share this w/ people that may have experience w/ circumstance like this as well I would be extremely appreciative!!!!

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1. Building a Real Estate knowledge Encyclopedia, Vegas and no puke, and building a blog

Well that work has had its ups and downs, but we are getting pumped for an AwEsoME 2010-11 school year. Millions of ideas, requiring an Obama sized budget all squeezed into 9 months of school – and about $3,000 of yearly dues. We will find a way to work things out – my kind of club. 

Anyways… We finally have a website coming up in bits and pieces. We managed to route our old outdated website (www.ucsbsea.org) to our new sexy wordpress.org (www.ucsbsea.com) and are slowly putting pieces of that website puzzle together. I thought setting up the structure would be time consuming, little did I know just how much content we have that needs to be created and uploaded. Sh!t, researching all of last years events alone has taken me hours – now imagine putting all that info into a readable, professional format. Sheesh.

Enough of my bi***ing. The website looks great (I hope; you tell me) and is coming together nicely. We also have a Transfer student presentation tomorrow on campus which I will report about afterwards (wish me luck). I’ve used my new Graphic Design skills I’m acquiring at Radius Group Commercial Real Estate to come up with a sick Student Entrepreneurs Association flyer which we will periodically update and likely use for the rest of the school year (thanks Intern to Scott Glenn).

Basically, because of all of the above I have not been able to be as consistent as I’d like with blog posts and with my Twitter/FB page experiments. Those are basically at a standstill. Not gaining but not losing on any fans/followers. It looks like I might need to live with that for the near future, as senior year gets closer and I will likely be working 2 jobs, leading the Student Entrepreneurs Association, and taking 13 Units :*( (thats a crying face).
Oh yeah, and doing Insanity at the same time (now a happy face). I have stuck with Insanity through this crazy summer and although I didnt post my 15 day results, I swear I will post my 30 day results and pictures so you can ooh and aah just like I do every day. The program is really amazing  – I recommend it to anyone who likes a challenge and wants to get in the best shape they have ever been in in their lifetime… I’m just finishing my 4th week. Just 10 more days to go till those results!!

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From Mish’s Global Economic Trends:

Underemployment 28.4% for Ages 18 to 29, 18.4% in all Age Groups – Gallup Poll

A Gallup poll shows underemployment is holding steady at 18.4%, a couple points higher than the BLS number from Friday’s jobs report.

Please consider U.S. Underemployment Steady at 18.4% in July

Underemployment, as measured by Gallup, was 18.4% in July, essentially unchanged from 18.3% at the end of June and in mid-July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April.

Gallup’s underemployment measure includes both Americans who are unemployed and those working part time but wanting full-time work. It is based on more than 17,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period and reported daily and weekly. Gallup’s results are not seasonally adjusted, and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks.

Substantially Higher Underemployment Persists Among the Young

Americans aged 18 to 29 had easily the highest underemployment rate in July of any age group, at 28.4%, including 11.8% who were unemployed and 16.6% who were employed part time but wanted full-time work. Among all U.S. adults in the workforce, a higher percentage of women than of men are underemployed.

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Sham Economy Becoming Clearer

With the Feds announcement yesterday and some other rumors it appears that we are officially entering the period whereby we realize what happens next.

For over a year now we have been speculating on the state of the economy and how the government would respond should their initial massive stimulus effort fail to bring on a sustained recovery.

The Bailouts/TARP/HARP/HAMP/ZIRP/QE/HomebuyerTax/Cash-Clunker-Caulker policies were billed as a “shock and awe” blast of Keynesian stimulus the likes of which has never been seen.

The expectations on the part of do-gooder policy junkies and other interested parties were for a classic “V” shaped recovery that, depending on what measure you use, appeared to have materialized until a spat of downbeat events began to accumulate in April weighing down sentiment and leading to an increase in pessimism.

But what materialized since April has really only been just confirmation of the overarching theme that the government stimulus efforts and emergency measures by the Fed were not a “real” fix for our economic woes.

In April, the Fed completed its MBS purchase program representing the first major attempt by the Fed at taking off the training wheels placed on the economy during the panic-laden days of the darkest part of our current predicament … we now see, as the Fed outlined yesterday, that the training wheels are coming back on.

Since April we saw the completion of the government’s massive homebuyer tax credit policy and witnessed its distortive effects on the housing market artificially driving sales up prior to the credit’s expiration and then plunging them down to the lowest lows after… we now see that this was just a government gimmick.

April also marked a point whereby all appeared to better understand how bad the public debt situation is for a whole host of European countries that are now making extraordinary sacrifices in the attempt to right their fiscal ships… while many in the U.S. would like to ignore this trend, we are now seeing that we are in precisely the same predicament at the federal level and for the states.

Finally, April brought the “flash-crash”, an event that while remaining a mystery as to its cause has clearly resulted in unequivocal confirmation by the retail investors on “Main Street” that the game on “Wall Street” is rigged.

Now we see that the economy is taking a turn for the worse and the Feds appear to be scrambling to come up with a response particularly in light of the looming election season.

The Fed says they are going to pump principle payments from their massive holding of MBS into longer term Treasury securities thereby initiating a second round of quantitative easing, what some have termed QEII.

A recent rumor suggested that the administration was nearing a proposal that would take a class action approach to the refinancing and debt forgiveness of tens of thousands of mortgage holders who are unable to refinance through normal market means because they simply cannot afford their homes.

As we witness the inevitable now coming to fruition and the feds doubling down in a futile effort to prevent it, it’s important to recognize the charade they have perpetrated to date and prepare for the worst.

I have nothing to add other then I love it. Spread the word people.

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3. Small Business Tax Cuts and The End of “Endless” Unemployment Benefits

The reason I bring this up today? This article in the wall street journal, written today, August 9th 2010 highlights almost the exact same story on a much larger scale, about 4 months after my friend had told me of a similar issue. Some interesting quotes from the wall street journal article:

Truck-stop operator Pilot Flying J says job postings don’t elicit many more applicants than they did when the unemployment rate was below 5%.

 Interesting right? The article goes on wondering, just like i am, why we aren’t seeing more job applicants now that the unemployment rate is almost double (9.5%):

With a 9.5% jobless rate and some 15 million Americans looking for work, many employers are inundated with applicants. But a surprising number say they are getting an underwhelming response, and many are having trouble filling open positions.

“This is as bad now as at the height of business back in the 1990s,” says Dan Cunningham, chief executive of the Long-Stanton Manufacturing Co., a maker of stamped-metal parts in West Chester, Ohio, that has been struggling to hire a few toolmakers. “It’s bizarre. We are just not getting applicants.”

The reason?

Employers and economists point to several explanations. Extending jobless benefits to 99 weeks gives the unemployed less incentive to search out new work. [...]

If the job market were working normally—that is, if openings were getting filled as they usually do—the U.S. should have about five million more gainfully employed people than it does, estimates David Altig, research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That would correspond to an unemployment rate of 6.8%, instead of 9.5%.

Here are some examples of employers who are in situations that sound strikingly similar to my friends:

Mr. Sperry sees extended jobless benefits as one of the main culprits behind his company’s hiring difficulties. Many of the applicants he saw at job fairs, he says, were just going through the motions so they could collect their unemployment checks.

[...]

Some workers agree that unemployment benefits make them less likely to take whatever job comes along, particularly when those jobs don’t pay much. Michael Hatchell, a 52-year-old mechanic in Lumberton, N.C., says he turned down more than a dozen offers during the 59 weeks he was unemployed, because they didn’t pay more than the $450 a week he was collecting in benefits. One auto-parts store, he says, offered him $7.75 an hour, which amounts to only $310 a week for 40 hours.

“I was not going to put myself in a situation where I was making that small of a wage,” says Mr. Hatchell.

What happened to the days when a job was a job? When things are handed out for free or people realize they have a near infinite safety net, where is the incentive to take that first step towards getting back into the work force? Possibly the worst effect from all of these things is that, those unemployed who used to perform skilled work are quickly becoming obsolete. 99 weeks on the sidelines will leave you stranded so far back you will never be able to get back in the game. These long term safety nets and resistence towards getting back into the work force are hurting peoples abilities to reenter if/when the job market ever picks back up…

A final quote:

“My thought was that in a cr** economy I could probably find somebody good because a lot of people were looking,” says Mr. McNarney, who has been in business for 13 years selling everything from simple lawnmowers to big riding models for large properties. “I didn’t find anybody.” 

Wouldn’t you think the same??

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2. And we wonder what is contributing to this BUDGET DEFICIT *BLACK HOLE*?!

 Already, the GOP victors in last year’s gubernatorial contests are providing powerful contrasts to Mr. Obama’s policies. Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell erased his state’s nearly $2 billion deficit without raising taxes. Facing a $13 billion shortfall, a hostile Democratic legislature and more than $7 million in negative ads launched against him by labor unions, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie nonetheless balanced the budget while cutting taxes.

 I just want to comment how amazing it is that a GOP governor burdened by a democratic legsilature was able to balance his states budget AND cut taxes, while Obama, who owns the house and senate has only suceeded in adding over a trillion dollars to our countries deficit. Not only are unemployment rates still hovering around 10%, but our budget is no where near balanced (and doesn’t look like it will be for the remainder of the Obama-nation) and Obama faces an all time low in approval rating.

Read the rest of this awesome article from the Wall Street journal for some testimonial on how GOP will take back state governance and hopefully the house and senate.

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I’ve been working nearly full time at Radius Group Commercial Real Estate in Santa Barbara as an intern/assistent to Scott Glenn. This is my dream job and I can’t even say how lucky I was to earn this spot in Scott’s office. A little backround – Scott has been one of the leaders in Commercial Real Estate sales in the Santa Barbara area for the last 22 years. The man and his office have been dropping knowledge on me so fast it has been a struggle to keep up. But without a doubt it has been and will continue to be one of the best experiences of my life. I love to learn, and every day I am forced to contribute to projects and tasks that are building up my Real Estate knowledge. I am lucky to be in a great position to draw off the awesome cumulative experience of Scott and his team (Whitney, Laureen, and Jason), as well as the other brokers and agents in the office. I’ll devote some more posts to writing about what I am learning and doing here as time permits.

Radius Group aside, I am still working as a marketing intern for AlwaysOnPC. In the last few weeks I set up a wordpress blog for the company. For anyone interested it was an awesome but time consuming experience. I didn’t do the setup for my blog here at HeadsOrATale (my brother did it - Don’t tell anyone) so I finally learned just how God D**n Hard it is to set one of these up. But its still a rewarding experience. For someone like me with no technical expertise, once I finished calling tech support for the 12th time and the blog was finally up and running it felt awesome. It was like building a house. I did it myself with very little help from outsiders and I was damn proud of it.
We had some trouble with hosting issues over the last week, but the wordpress.org blog I set up is finally up and running strong! Check it out at blog.alwaysonpc.com. Let me know what you think – do you like the layout, the color, are things easy to read and find? Is the content informative? Input would be awesome.

Ok, so my two jobs out of the way, now for the fun stuff. I just turned 21 last week, so a couple buddies and I drove to vegas this past weekend. I’m not gonna go into detail, but it was awesome. And, to top it off, I wont be drinking liquor for at least 2 weeks to recover, so I can go super insane .

For more awesome-ness, I’m also playing in a 3 on 3 basketball tournament this coming friday-sunday at the Staples center/LA Live. Its a Lakers/Nike tournament – if your in town come support my team and check it out. It’s a sweet setup with tons of booths, give aways, games (for kids and adults), even a 3 on 3 game between some NBA players and retired NBA players. If you’re interested here’s some more info on the events for the weekend.

So my anti liquor policy for the next two weeks will help me push past that fitness plateu. I’ve still been doing Insanity every morning (at 6:15AM!!!!! It actually jump starts my day its great. I have more energy, I feel better, I waddle like a duck for a few days – my legs are always sore) and the results have been spectacular. Even though I went to Vegas and was easily consuming 2500 calories a day of pure liquor, I still havent been in such good shape since the beginning of my P90X days. I even did the workout my second day in Vegas which was ridiculous, but I couldn’t maintain it (too hungover). Because I missed a few days in Vegas I decided to redo my second week of the program, so this coming monday I’ll be doing my 2nd fit test and posting my results and pictures. Can’t wait!

I think that’s about it for now. Sigghhhh. It feels good to finally have a chance to write again. I’ll definitely try to be more consistent about it now that I am more situated with my work/life situation.

Peace out!

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The police union in Bay Michigan has resorted to scare tactics threatening more violence and masked terrorists if the city suspends a handful of police officers.

Please consider Billboard Protest of Police Layoffs in Michigan Fuels Public Safety Debate

Police officers in Bay City, Mich., are being called domestic terrorists after renting billboard space to trumpet that the layoffs of five police officers in the town could lead to more shootings, stabbings, robberies and beatings.

The police say they paid for the two billboards that went up last week to bring attention to the impasse in negotiations between its union and city officials, who are seeking a 10.8 percent reduction in labor costs from eight unions to tackle a $1.66 million budget deficit for the fiscal year that began July 1. The billboards also spotlight the city’s decision to replace the roof on city hall for $1.6 million.

“City Hall’s Roof Will Not Stop You From Getting: Beaten, Shot, Stabbed, Robbed. 5 Laid Off Bay City Cops Could Have!” one billboard reads.

The other one shows a masked gunman and reads, “POSSIBLE. The result of Bay City Commissioners laying off five police officers.”

“I think it’s distasteful and harmful to the community,” Commission President Christopher Shannon told FoxNews.com. “I don’t know what they wish to gain as far as good faith negotiating. I think it really drives a wedge somewhat between those of us who are trying to come up with reasonable compromises and those that are on the other side of it.”

The city reached a deal with the firefighters’ union before the deadline of June 30 and says it is on the verge of inking contracts with three other unions that would reduce labor costs. But the police asked for a raise during its round of negotiations, Shannon said.

“As it turned out, as deadlines approached no one had really made any meaningful progress so we had to issue layoffs,” Shannon said, noting that the city is bound by state law to present a balanced budget by June 30. “It wasn’t the best option, but the only option we had given the fiscal pressures we were facing.”

Shannon said if the billboards are to be taken seriously and the police force believes it has lost its ability to protect and service, “it really forces me as commission president in Bay City, Mich., to put together a committee to explore contracting services out to the sheriff’s department” and other local law enforcement agencies.

“If they cannot do their job…we have to consider alternatives to provide public safety,” he said.

The police union in Bay Michigan has resorted to scare tactics threatening more violence and masked terrorists if the city suspends a handful of police officers.

Please consider Billboard Protest of Police Layoffs in Michigan Fuels Public Safety Debate

Police are upset that the city spent $1.6 million fixing the roof on city hall. That sounds like a hell of an expensive roof for a city of approximately 34,000.

However, a roof is a onetime fix, and raises granted to unions last forever. Without being there it is difficult to accurately access the roof. However, it is easy to weigh in on police scare tactics and absurd pension benefits.

Once again, if the union had any concern for residents it was supposed to protect, it would not be running these ads and it would accept pay cuts to protect jobs.

The action by Bay City police is very similar to the MTA union running ads showing Iranian Terrorists. If you missed it, please see Transit Union Plays Nuclear Terrorist Card.

I commend the statement by commissioner Shannon threatening to outsource the police department to the local sheriff’s association.

Indeed, government should opt to provide the most services at the least cost, not the fewest benefits at the most cost. Public unions invariably do the latter. Outsourcing to the sheriff’s association would save a huge amount of money, enough to allow Bay City to have more officers for less money, so that is exactly what it should do.

If you live in Bay City, it is important to stand up to the police thugs attempting to extort more of your dollars via tax increases. Please call the mayor and the city council and ask them to outsource the police department.

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