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The Trade for Profit Morning Letter for Friday May 17, 2013

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 17 May 2013 14:42:00 +0000

Philly Fed Pres. Charles Plosser on QE: "we've dug ourselves a very large hole"

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 10 May 2013 00:18:00 +0000

Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, told Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on "Bloomberg Surveillance" today that..

"we've dug ourselves a very large hole" and that "when I've weighed the costs and benefits of this [quantitative easing] policy, I've decided that the costs outweigh the benefits."

Plosser also said that it is..

"disturbing" to him that "more and more is being expected of central banks." He said, "We are expected to solve all the world's problems. Our fiscal authorities are not doing a very good job in any country."

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David Zervos on QE: is "the greatest monetary policy experiment of our lifetime.."

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 07 May 2013 04:32:00 +0000

David Zervos, head of global fixed income at Jefferies, told Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on "Market Makers" today that the Federal Reserve's QE program is:

"the greatest monetary policy experiment of our lifetime and I do not think that anyone is smart enough, me, any central banker up there" to figure out how to properly exit.

Zervos said, "I am not criticizing them, I just do not think that we know how to handle this when we need to handle it. We have never done it before and it will be a messy process."

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Ken Langone on Obama Admin: "....I'm sorry to say, is anti-business"

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 22:01:00 +0000

Billionaire financier and Home Depot founder Ken Langone guest-hosted Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" today and discussed the U.S. economy, the Obama administration, generational theft, along with Wall Street banks and director pay.

On generational theft: "I like to get a bunch of old geezers in the room and say, you're on an island with your grandchild. You have one meal left. One of you is going to starve to death. What are you as a grandfather going to do? Everyone says, I give the food to my grandchild. They are not doing that now. We are not doing that now."

On the Obama administration: "I think the administration, I'm sorry to say, is anti-business. I don't know, I can't prove it, my opinion -- my gut says, 'if you're a business man, we don't like you.'"

On Jamie Dimon: "I love Jamie. As a person. I know him well personally. He's probably the finest CEO across any business in America and probably in the world."

On bank director pay: "First of all, I'm a serial over payer. Ask Elliott Spitzer. That is why he came after me. I won. I beat him bad." "I think the administration, I'm sorry to say, is anti-business.

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Former Congressman Ron Paul on Bitcoin: "I have my reservations...."

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 23:44:00 +0000

Former Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) told Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen today that he is

"concerned about the erraticness of the dollar. The dollar is up, the dollar is down. We print a lot of dollars. The dollar gets devalued. That is really the concern. If people think the gold price up and down is a reflection of something wrong with gold, no, I say it is something wrong with the dollar."

On Bitcoin, Paul said,

"To tell you the truth, it's little bit too complicated. If I can't put it in my pocket, I have some reservations about that."
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The $126billion tweet that never happend of 2013

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 20:50:00 +0000

1 min $SPX of 'crash'

I thought tweet reading algo's were products of conspiracy? no?...

The events of today refute this thesis.

As a group compromised the Associated Press twitter feed stating the President had been hurt in an attack of some sort.

Subsequently sending the equity index futures lower by 1% on massive volume in seconds only to recover fully in the minutes following. Interconnectivity proving not so beneficial. Find a PDF of today's TFP Letter below. God speed. Subscribe here.
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S&P 500 futures are higher ahead of Monday open, T-complex bid

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:11:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

Good morning, happy Monday my friends. As i type the ES is higher by 7 points to 1554.50 with 1557.50 acting as resistance with the 1560 level the first head level the price must climb to really put some extension on this pinch over the white line we talked about this past Thursday.

ON the reverse side 1550 is support with 1546.50 being the last line in sand before we see 1540, so pick your poison. IMO i believe it will be easier to trade a break up or break down under the two prices discussed above, all priced derived from the 5m in ES.

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TFP Morning Letter for April 19, 2013 | $SPX $IBM

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 13:12:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

Well well well the second after i sit down at my machine the futures complex bid falls off the page, not exactly sure what spooked the tape but the ES fell from 1546 to 1539.50 very quickly.

Currently the ES is higher by 0.47% or 7 points to 1541 with support at 1438. If you remember to last night we were targeting a 1540 break out, which occurred but has now been erased; profits when and *if you can is the only solution.

15 min ES

Resistance to watch for a pinch over is 1547 on the 5 min and 1543.35 on the 1 min, under 1538 means 35's under means 30 which leaves the only line of defense 1529.75 which if fails its going to flash into 1 points of sell stops.

Gun to my head if apple starts making lows off the open again the S&P's are not going to be able to keep the ship floating on its own, especially after soft IBM earnings yesterday.

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TFP market summary for Thursday April 18, 2013 $SPX

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 01:28:00 +0000

15 min ES

The green red pattern was defeated today as the SPX closed lower by 10.40 points or 0.67% marking a 63 point drop from the all time high achieved this past thursday at 1593.35.

The declines today came after the futures greeted traders with green paint this morning only to fade as the 30 year surged from 146.26 to 148'14 crushing the ES into 1530.75, which the low happend to coincide with AAPL printing 489.74.

5 min ES zoom

Currently the ES futures are higher by 5.50 points to 1539.50 with 1540.25 being the resistance we are watching for pinch over into 1541.25 cyan 5 min resistance, over = 144-45 with overhead resistance clear up at 1548.25 for a full reversal potential, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

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Futures higher ahead of cash open despite weak jobless claims | $SPX

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 15:38:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

SP 500 Futures are higher only slightly to 1551.75 with 1552 being immediate resistance and 1555.25 being pinch resistance on the 5 time frame.

Support is 1550 into 1548 and 1545, under 45 = 1540 again so on and so fourth. NOthing has changed level wise despite the fact it is a new day, i could repeat myself and type the same thing day after day, or you all can learn from it.

30 min ES

As i type weekly jobless claims have hit the tape showing 4k more people claimed unemployment this week, so now the ES is trading for 1550, GOLD feel back under 1400 after trading 1402 to 1391.75. Gols is currently still up 10.30 points or 0.74%, support is 1390.

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Market Summary for Wednesday April 17, 2013

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 03:39:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

Taking back Wednesday was there theme as it has not stopped raining in Chicago and bonds have stopped rising for two days. The bonds again were the underlying force keeping a consistant heavy ES offer due to the arbitragers, though what is new?

The ES failed the 1565 level early this morning leading into a cascade of selling into 1538, .50 below Monday's low.

SO yes if you are good at math you can deduct monday from today's #'s and you see Tuesday has been erased. Tonights line in sand has been placed @ 1540 with 38's being the event horizon before 1529.75 comes up fast. Under 29.75's i sincerly believe we could see 1500 shortly after, especially if the break of 29.75 is coupled with..

1. declining euro
2. falling bond yields
3. apple continuing to decline

monthly AAPL

Currently the ES is trading for 1546.75 with resistance running up into 1548 and 1550 which a trade over would possibly create a pinch because as i type crude has broke 86 and now rallied clear up to 86.69 which has been closely telegraphed by 6E rising .32% into 1.3055.

This 1.3055 level will act as resistance tonight. so if it breaks over 1.3055 yesterday's 6E high will come into play.

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The Manic market rolls on as futures decline 12 points ahead of cash open ato 1557

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 13:12:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES. note RED uptrend break

NQ 1 hour. 2800 support

Monday was red, Tuesday was green, Wednesday is red, see a pattern here? The pattern is telling me the index is confused and has no leadership, much like out country. Currently the ES is lower by 10.50 pts or 0.69% to 1558.25 with 1555 remaining as support + line in sand, under = 1550 quickly.

The manic market rolls on. When looking @ the ES for upside, a move back over 1560.25 is what is needed to realigned the trend to put 1565 as resistance before pinch resistance @ 1570.25 comes back into play, yesterday's resistance.

I must say i am fairly surprised by crude and equity weakness as gold is unchanged and crude is down 1.41%, but this is the market and you must trade what you have got not what you want.

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Market Summary for Tuesday April 16, 2013 | (SPX)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:55:00 +0000

1hr ES. PINCH over white line

The markets bounced back today, do not get excited this is largely just that, reactionary. Though it is hard to ignore a 1.60% move as well as the nearly 3% bounce in gold coupled with a VIX down 19%.

Currently the ES unchanged at 1568.75 with 5 min support remaining at 1650-59.25 bracketed by 1565-67 resistance. If bonds continue you to wash the slide, equities could play a repeat of last night.. ie grind higher into stop regions.

5 min ES

The dollar continued it's assault on lower prices today, specifically following a large sell ticket punched around 7:03am CT; the price declined another 40 cents following this early sell as the Euro rallied into the 1.32 metric further boosting the equity bid.

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S&P 500 futures reclaim 1555 ahead of Tuesday open, Gold trading 1398

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 13:10:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

"bounce" is the theme this morning after housing starts came in above expectations (1036MM, Exp. 930K), though i think most of this move up off 1538.75 into 1558 is reactionary as the Boston attack really spooked the market.

That being said if you rode up the overnight move, book your profits and bring it back to center court so you will be ready for the next move.

15 min ES

Currently the ES is trading for 1558 +14.25 points or 0.92% with 1560 being resistance, this comes after we highlighted on the TFP Insider feed the 1550.25 level as a pinch level.

Support is 1555 into 1550 with 1545 being the last line of defense before 1540-1538 comes back into play.

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Market Summary for Monday April 15, 2013 | Gold Collapse of 2013

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 02:36:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

Daily GC

GC Daily zoom

The bond market was business as usual throughout most of today's session while the equity market and commodity markets continued to slide. Business in front and party in back?

The bonds seemed to have priced in the equity pullback from record highs of mid last week so the 2.5% drop in the ES is not as alarming as the near 20% drop in Silver and 15% drop in gold the last 2 sessions.

In my opinion the level which GC broke to ultimately triggering this move was 1537.60 on friday.

Currently gold is down 28 points or 2% @ 1333.23 after 1355 2 hours ago, 1320 is now the line in sand before likely 1300 gets tagged with a brand of a 240 point drop in essentially 48 hours, excluding the weekend. Electronic markets. do this. notice most of this drop was off the floor volume anyway..

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S&P 500 drops to to 1571.75 on poor Empire state survey

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 15:58:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

The story of the night is commodities, which have for lack of a better word collapsed; gold specifically down 84 points or 5.60 percent to 1417 of this writing.

Also as of this writing the Empire manufacturing survey just hit the tape with a expectation of 9.2 but 3.1 printed.

This massive miss dropped the ES from 1578 down to 1575 which i will put as support though 1571.75 is the actual line in sand as that is the two week ES low and the overnight low. On the upside a move over 1580 will surely push late shorts.

weekly GC note the two red lines under support

Beyond commodities weighing on the tape, you have the bond market pushing higher with the 30 year bond at highs of 148'02 up 0.10%.

The long stocks and bonds pair trade might be closing today due to the fact equities feel much different than the past few days.

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Marc Faber: "gold may fall to $1300 before a rebound"

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Sat, 13 Apr 2013 02:22:00 +0000

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said that gold may fall to $1300 before a rebound. He appeared on Bloomberg TV's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson today. Faber said:

"I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity." On whether a deflationary environment is possible right now."

Faber also said:

"In the economy of the cuckoo people that populate central banks, everything is possible."

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A look at gold Futures following Friday's drop & today's 130 point drop

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Sat, 13 Apr 2013 01:34:00 +0000

monthly GC. same chart as from late 2011

Now what?.. THESE were our previous GC_F thoughts.. Bonds going to cool off or have the tables been turned? **turned** Silver down 12 percent.. GC down 10. 1355 low.

Daily GC.. broke down into 3/14/2011 LOW

Weekly GC

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Market Summary for Wednesday April 10, 2013 | $SPX

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 01:28:00 +0000

1 min ES

The S&P 500 as you probably already know made all time highs today of 1589.07 shortly after every single media outlet fired off the "All time highs" alert.

The buying came in after a leaked FOMC minutes shocked the tape into 1564 lows 3 minutes before the scheduled 9:00 am ET release.
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TFP morning letter for Wednesday April 10, 2012

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 13:39:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

The ES is higher to 1567.75 after trading into yesterday's high of 1569 early Wednesday morning, thus over 69 = 72. Currently 1565 is support with 1559.25 being the line in sand before we are into Tuesday morning dip territory.

That being said we had a bond market that steadily sold off throughout the night and morning helping to keep the ES orderly; the 30 year bond is down 0.26% to 146'29 with 1446'10 being support of 146'10 to watch for sell stops under.
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Market Summary for Tuesday April 9, 2013

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 00:29:00 +0000

30 min ES

Today's session was a nearly 100% repeat of Monday's save the drop from 2013 highs of 1569 into 1561 where the ES currently resides. Our TFP morning letter target of 1568 was met today so if any of you rode that wave, nice work.

The tape today was initially softened by the 30 year and 10 year bond prices pushing higher in the hour leading up into cash open. This softening 'phenomenon' is highly related to derivative tied ETF's which are out of control in their reach, the program traders know this and exploit.
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futures higher ahead of earnings & bernanke speech

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 17:56:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

30 min ES

The ES has remained relatively quiet throughout monday night and tuesday morning, which likely will not last much longer if the bonds start wiggling. Beyond the ES, the risk complex is relatively tame following upbeat AA earnings after the bell Monday

Currently the ES is higher by 2.50 points to 1562.75 after making a high of 1563.75 late Monday night. This makes the upside line in sand the highs of the evening with a target over @ 1565-68.
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Market Summary for Monday April 8, 2013 | $AA

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 23:43:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

The spooz started Monday off in a frenzy as a confused bond market tried to digest the YEN arbs trying to hedge their exposure after another night of bid pounding of yen futures.

What started the fall in the ES was a 30 min bid whack precisely @ 8:00am CT which follow through into all the way into support of 1543.75 which was when the 30 year finally went offered @ 147'28.
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Futures higher ahead of Alcoa Earnings - Happy Monday

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 08 Apr 2013 15:01:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

Good morning, and happy monday the futures are higher and the bonds are lower. On the surface it appears many of the same themes from last week will be at work today; such as bonds lower market higher.

30 min ES

Currently the ES is higher by 4.50 points to 1550.50 after trading into 1552 which makes this the upside line insand before the ES pinched back to 1555 resistance from Thursday. 5 minute support in the ES is 1548 with 1545 as the line in sand before we move into 1540-1533 (Friday's low).
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A Leaked non-farm payroll miss sent bond soaring into 2013 highs

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:37:00 +0000

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES

I will keep this short and sweet, NFP came in @ +88k vs 190k, the largest miss in nearly 4 years.

If you want all the commentary on doom and gloom you know where to look, if you want price levels we got them.

Currently the spooz is lower by 1 percent to 1536.50 after trading into a low of 1534, if you refer back to last nights post we outlined what we expected to happend to the T following the event of a miss. We surmised a miss was not baked into stocks, well the spooz fell 20 handles in a print.
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