Hedge According.ly

Friday S&P500 Chart (TVIX)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:35:00 +0000

5 min ES

The strength of bonds throughout last evening and night kept sustained pressure on equity bids pushing the ES through yesterday's lows at around 23:00hrs eventually finding a bottom this morning @ tuesday's sticky support level of 1334.

You might be wondering about the spike in VIX and what it means..I think the answer is a bit less complicated than you think....

Lets just say PM's were adding protection against their holdings which greatly appreciated in value the last 40 days or so. Would you not protect if you were them? When you have to protect a large portfolio with gains you need to desperately lock in, you gotta buy a lot of protection.... The vol spike near last hour as the ES came into test lows was obviously caused put buying (because index's did not make a new low) or perhaps instruments squeezing such as TVIX perpetuated the move triggering shorts over the 19 and 20 level.

In my opinion given the price action in some of the larger tech names as well as XOM into the close suggested (the hated) dip buyers stepping back in for a possible up swing next week.
Crude remained firm closing out the cash session @ 99.05..... NO panic there....

The index's saw the vol pop a lot were looking for all while the index's did not manage to push down more than 1% for any period of time worth mentioning today..

Now that we regained 1340 with almost 80k contracts trading in the last 5 minutes the question arises what will sunday look like?

Stewart Solaka From Chicago Stock trading at NASDAQ

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:11:00 +0000

Ground Hogs day in ES post Cash (SPY)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:17:00 +0000

After cash closed yesterday the futures promptly sold down to mid day resistance turned support around 1344. Today we are seeing same 50% retracement of afternoon move after cash has closed. You can see this in the chart below. I would like to see 1346 hold as 1349 failed, the volume is very low mind you but futures are having a hard tim staying green, for 3 days now only green periods were early morning and late afternoon.

5 min

Mid Session S&P500 Futures Note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:13:00 +0000

rallied up from 1340's into 1350's.. 10 handles.. we are resting.. 1352.75 is still the high... over 1351 means a test of highs at least... Need upside cooperation from CL and 6E to really see action...

5 min ES

compare today's price action with yesterdays price action..

Intra Day Look at Apple Price Action (AAPL)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 16:45:00 +0000

As you can see over 485 a fire was lit under apple.. This fire fanned by the ES_F bouncing off 1341ish which is roughly 10 handles from pre market highs over 1352... Index's are indeed shaky up here but from the chart below you can see how resilient apple is.

From the chart you can see 495 is immediate resistance & 490 moderate support with a serious seller up @ 495.. Though if the seller is exhausted 500 could be a few trades away.

1 min AAPL

Moth Formation in Crude This morning

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:30:00 +0000

This moth flew away.. to 100.18 that is.. almost exactly 1 dollar higher than when i spotted the elusive creature last night

5 mi CL

watch it

1 min CL

Post Close S&P Futures Note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 23:50:00 +0000

5 min ES

A roller coaster of a 10 handle up and down session..... Rinse/repeat being the theme... Overnight strength turned into post cash open weakness much like yesterday and monday's opening performance....

Today's selling coincidentally concluded in the area of 1338.50 which was very close ( red X ) to yesterdays immediate high off cash open. Once the ES found its legs again after failing 1337.25 yesterday it rallied all the way into new highs as the day concluded.

Very similar action greeted participants today who recognized this pattern as the ES found her legs around 1337.75 trading up into 1347.5...ES immediate support 1340 still b/c 1345 failed very easily at start of night session. 1348.25 is the new 2012 high.

The whole index move higher was in the face of the 10's and 30's defending support .
The euro did not do much but fade from pre US session highs of 1.329 and wave around as headlines were rehashed and deadlines were missed.

DX/ZB 5 min

I am now looking at 1.33 resistance for 6E .. if the ECB can come to a deal 1.34 could be on the horizon.. This of course would provide a underlying bid to the index's and pressure on US bond yields. the dollar as you remember is well under the 80 level (78.63) with BONDS still hanging over support which was resistance when dollar was a hair over 79. i

If TLT can move down into the 115 level this should coincide with a break higher in the ES 1352+.
116 is big support in TLT.. 115.55 is TLT's line insand. if it fails look out..

7 day 5 min ES - NOTICE the pattern

Morning S&P500 Futures Note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:27:00 +0000

5 min ES. X marks the spot.

Welp. 1348 traded as i hypothesized late last evening.. volume? not really.. higher prices.. yes we will take it.. though continue to be cautious up here, manage your risk.

I am looking for 1352 if 1346.25 holds firm.. if it does not we could see opening range prices again and more sideways action until a bit more volume shows up...

ALSO TLT refusing to fall under 116 for any prolonged period of time.. equites not liking this..

Add caption

Wednesday Morning Light Sweet Crude Chart (USO)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:40:00 +0000

over 100 it is... bullish chart most of the morning/night ... ascending triangle... pinch point was over 100.90... similar pinch point to yesterday.. just muted a bit.

5 min CL

Late Evening S&P Futures Note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 04:33:00 +0000

5 min ES

If and when 1345 trades again in the coming hours the ES could see 1348.. especially if 1345 firms into support. The current 1 min ES trend has immediate support @ 1344 and 1343.50.. 1340 remember remained elusive post the 10 handle rampe off 1332.

In the chart to the right and below you can see perhaps why the ES rallied to the point it did this morning.. 10 handle rule off lows and the price ran into overhead resistance drawn from friday's pre market low/support.

As for the underlying bid creators DX/6E .. both happen to be green tonight.. both up .03% ...

Euro sticking to 1.325.. crude is up 50 cents flirting with the 99 level.

5 min expanded ES

Mid day S&P Chart -

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 17:50:00 +0000

leaning to the upside.. though the pattern is pretty simple.. break out or break down. downside might only reach 1340 if 1341.75 fails.

1 min ES

A look at Hovnanian Resources (HOV)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 16:36:00 +0000

Update 2/9/2012 - HOV trades over 3 up 9% today into 3.2 After hours.

4 hour HOV..

4 hour HOV .

The stock has move rather smoothly up into the current level of 2.96. Stockmonster thought the stock looked good as a long around 1.27.. I am looking for a trade over 3 dollars and a possible squeeze. we shall see. drillers/materials doing well also.

Crude Bullishness Leading The Index's

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:43:00 +0000

X marks the spot where the reversal got its legs.

1 min CL vs ES

5 min CL

Yesterday evening and this morning crude's movements were correlated to the S&P's, with both assets selling after they made a monday evening high... ES fell off post 1342.5... CL fell off the hi of 97.44 down into 95.84 ....

I mentioned CL felt heavy over 96.80 yesterday evening though before it fell through the level with conviction CL squeezed 50c higher before failing to lows of 95.84.

Crude's price action today is very similar to sunday evening and monday morning.. Looking back to yesterday, before equities opened CL sold off fairly violently only to see a very steep pinch into highs for the floor session monday and today highs for the entire session of 98..

little over 2 dollar move from lows, zero catalyst but thin trading. Index's should follow Crude's lead.. remember crude got down to 95 area twice now this month and bounced very quickly .

Gold Could Get weird under 1714 - Tomorrow

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:50:00 +0000

1700 fail (a)gain.. perhaps....1650.. im just thinking aloud here.
Below you will find a series of gold charts.....

monthly GC

1 hour GC

Daily GC

A look at NYSE volume going back to july of 2008

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:40:00 +0000

monthly NYSE volume with the 30 year and dollar plotted in the lower.

What to make of this? well declining volume since 2008.. yes there were spiks over the red line BUT averages (the body of candle not wick) have been on a steady decline as the dollar and treasuries steadily moved north.

As the 30 year near 140 you can see above how equity volumes react.. this is all normal right.. risk comes out of equities and goes into a safer asset, dollars. How long can the trend last? is there a huge move coming or will treasuries and dollar give up their bids soon as europe resolves?

A look at Volume Today in the S&P Futures

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:26:00 +0000

1 min ES

1 min inset showing volume

Monday Morning S&P500 Chart

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 14:36:00 +0000

As you can see the ES melted higher very slow today with 1340.50 being the high. Bonds told us something was amiss today with TLT's curious strength over 117. Crude rather mute today post morning volatility. Gold stayed weak though off the lows...with this weeks auctions still on the horizon we could see a few more days of action like this.

5 min ES.

5 min ES

So far so.... id like to see 1333 hold.. but pressure already on 1334.. choppy overnight session as Greece dropped the ball again.. this should make for a extra choppy cash session.. since the index's are already on the weak side you might want to take a step back and looking for buying and or profit taking opportunities.

Upper resistance is 1336.5 .. over could bring a test of 1340 ... 1343 is the high for the year.

1 minute Look at S&P500 Futures

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 18:09:00 +0000

1 min

Notice price range getting very tight under 1341.... volume very low as NYC and Chicago are partaking in a friday lunch... 1345 in cards if we plow through 41.

or we could tip over if buyer doesnt stick with it.. but i think that is a slim chance.

Friday Mid Day S&P500 Note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:53:00 +0000

5 min ES

Abysmal volume today as we make new 2012 highs over 1339.75 .. looking for 1345 if 1340 trades with conviction and volume. 1335 support immediate .. 1330 perhaps keep in mind for sunday open. We have a few bond auctions next week which cause a few upside roadblocks...

Gold is indeed weak per my thoughts from yesterday.

Oil is rather muted but it did melt up into the 97 level with 97.50 being resistance. If 97.50 trades with conviction 98 could easily be in the cards.

Dollar saw a pop on the jobs number though has relented a bit... equities still not bothered by currency movements.

Silver and Gold Over Extended? (GLD)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 20:22:00 +0000

2/3/12 Update* Gold down 30 today.. SLV down 2.45% .... X price level of GC yesterday when GC looked a bit stretched. (1764). Currently 1729.80

5 min GC

Perhaps..... both have broken higher out of descending patterns... NFP tomorrow could send the ES into 1335 causing a drop in the dollar.. a surge in the euro over 1.32 (again) and some relenting in gold's recent move.. perhaps a failure of the 118 level in TLT. Crude also tends to overshoot on the downside...
Overnight melt up into the number i think is a decent possibility. ON the flip side we just as easily could break down because volume is ridiculously low today.. lots of anticipation..

as for SLV and GC.. maybe 3% on the downside is reasonable soon..

SLV - GC

Crude Oil Continues Weakness

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:55:00 +0000

15 min CL

The bat revealed itself in the CL chart and the price never looked back... we had a bounce in CL yesterday though it failed to move over the top of the bat's head of 98.60.. CL under 95.50 could send us down to 94.64..Remember the index's are still near their yearly highs euro still over 1.31 and bonds are still rather bid.. what will give first?

Is CL foreshadowing a large down move in equities or has CL again overshot on the downside and will bounce right back up into 100 level by friday? We shall see, perhaps bonds and CL are correct and equities are off on cloud 9.

Late Afternoon S&P Futures Note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 20:21:00 +0000

5 min ES

Higher prices is the theme this afternoon as the nasdaq made a new 11 year high of 2494.25 without apple or amzn's participation mind you. As for the S&P's i mentioned in my morning note over 1320 would mean 1325. 1320 traded and shortly after 1325 and up to 1327 traded. The index's have run out of steam a bit up here and may test 1320 by the close if 1323 does not hold firm.

As for oil, another large range today with lower prices being explored sub 98 with 97.28 being the low for the week so far.

Treasury's are down a bit on the day though are still up on the week, as you remember yesterday we saw quite a bit of strength in the 30 year. currently TLT is sitting on daily support around 118.90.

Tuesday Morning S&P500 note

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 14:27:00 +0000

5 min ES

Nearly same pattern as yesterday morning. up from 1 am until about 4 am.. then sideways chop until US cash marke opens.. Over 1320.25 we could see 1325.. then possibly 1330 ... below 1315 could easily send us down to test 1310. In the chart below you can see how resilient the 1305 level has become the last week and a half. Euro strong still under 1.32 though over 1.31 ... still some short covering...

Add caption

Crude Fails 98 only to regain. though down from 101.29

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 19:08:00 +0000

Huge range.. The bat has done some damage.

5 min

Mid Day Light Sweet Crude Chart

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 18:05:00 +0000

5 min

Quite the reversal as you can see from 101.29 down to nearly 99.25 which imo is the lower line in the sand.. below .25 . 99 will surely trade..

Worth noting the volume in the 5 minute period where crude failed 99.75 down to the 98.80 area over 13k contracts trades. Fairly high volume and above average going back a few weeks.