Hedge According.ly

The Q's

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 21:37:00 +0000

10 year Q's - QQQ formerly QQQQ

1's and 2's - A 20 year look at the SPY

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:10:00 +0000

i spy a few patterns.

Nasdaq Composite Trades into 11 year highs

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 22:17:00 +0000

12 year Nasdaq composite

Last time the nasdaq was up here was mid november 2000. Pretty much means we trade into 3k based on momentum.

Post breach of 107 CL 1hour Look -

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 17:52:00 +0000

1 hour CL

Post breach of 108.50 CL.. clearly the buyer is determined.. how determined.. time will tell.. just keep eyes on the lines and dont try to out smart it.

1 hour CL

As you can see from the chart above .. the yellow dotted line has held from 2/7/2012 until the brief blip under today.. The blip today similar to the blip on 2/10/2012.... I mentioned on twitter it is interesting when technicals align in many different products and then the pattern are pushed to their breaking points....all to test the pervious pattern/trend resilience..

The push was ...Crude breaking down below the 2.5 week up trend in the same instant as ES and NQ broke down off open.. Crude found a solid bid before ES and NQ.. gave confidence in a equities bounce.

A peek inside stockMONSTER

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 17:04:00 +0000

We are market narrators, we do not hold your hand. But we do give out actionable and pertinent market color when you need it the most. no BS.

[09:48:08] evan_: i dont recommend shorting the market out right

[09:48:29] evan_: what makes today any different from the other days where we rally after a morning low.. and this mornings low is pretty violent

[09:50:43] xxxx_: DNDN getting ready for another punch higher
[09:52:28] evan_: watching spy here for a bounce

Stop by and say hello

Nasdaq reverses on massive volume

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 16:20:00 +0000

again the 2600 level is back in play.. over 2600.50 could bring a rush of covering/buying/squeezing/crying/laughing

15 min NQ

Thursday Morning S&P500 Futures Look

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 12:29:00 +0000

another wishy washy overnight session trading on the same prices.. NQ leading the weakness. Notice how the ES reacted very negatively around 4 am to the downtrending red line in place from sundays gap up. Lines only extended no re drawn.

5 min ES

15 min S&P Look -

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 04:15:00 +0000

15 min ES

for what it's worth. obviously be careful with your longs if we get under cash session lows. Over 1363 i get a bit bullish into 1365.. The real ticking time bomb is the NQ's imo.. 2600 in sights. over lots of momo could build/squeeze.

Copper has broken its 15 min down trend.. it cleared the 3.80 i mentioned lastnight as a bullish pinch level.

30 min HG

Nasdaq 4 hour trend update

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 00:54:00 +0000

4 hour zoomed - 30 min inset -

The chart to the right shows a channel created over the last 2 months. The only blips in trend have been in the last week.

The NDX is acting as if 2600 is the boogy man BUT every dip into the lower trend support has been bought with conviction.

That being said if the lower trend channel fails there is a lot of air.. if 2600 is mounted and held.. 2620+ could be in the cards, especially if apple decides to run into 550.

AAPL 4 hour. zoom

Post Greece bailout S&P500 Futures Look

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 23:56:00 +0000

5 min ES

Looking back to my S&P post from earlier today i mentioned the spooz needed to climb over 1365 to convert into a test of 1370's. This, of course, did not happen and the price failed into the Thursday's closing 1354.75-1355 area.... 1355's were bought and we bounced into 1360. 1360.50 is where the spooz sits as i type.

Today's trough to trough (open to close) range was 2nd largest in almost 2 months & the vix barely moved over 18.50 (18.19 closing price). This explains a lot of the complacency on either side of the market. Bulls or bears are still locked up waiting for the official to tell the to back up and fight. For the last month any upside breech's of highs made during AH globex have been promptly sold off during the cash session. Though any sell off during cash is mitigated by the end of the day.

30 min ES. Complacent pattern

This pattern cannot go on forever but will remain in place until the large cap index components start breaking into new territory. Tech led the last 3 month move (out performing the S&Ps on a % basis) and has failed to make a new high with the S&P's.

Perhaps the NDX is being held back in hopes the S&P's will catch up and profits/new positions can be established in the likes of ...IE apple amazon and google; which have struggled with their footing each and every time mother index (NDX) reached 2600.

1 min NQ (nasdaq future)

I made 1 trade today. I added NDX 2650 calls and SPX 1380 calls with underlying @ 2576. What caused me to arrive at this decision to trade?.. the way the NQ's reacted off 2574.5.

Iran worry and Greece summation pushed crude oil over 106$ a bbl.

Yes is an issue.. but.. In October of 2008 CL high was 95 a BBL. with the S&P's trading between 1492 - 1586; the DX was trading at the nearly the exact same level then as today; the 30 year around 115.

CL has a bit of room to run without hampering equities..

Mid day S&P500 Futures Look

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:26:00 +0000

Not a whole lot to report .. but we did get the standard 2012 trade, quick sell off open then rally back to opening range. The low for cash is 1358.5 high being 1365... we need to get over 1365 to covert into a test of 1367-1370 range.. 1374 is a big level.. What might give the index's the UMPH they need to achieve new prices is upside participation from most of the beta names and a continued bond break down..

5 min ES

Notice the convergence of a few lines @ 1364.. coinciding with 2696 in the NQ.

2600 is a bigger level than DOW 13000 mind you

Fairly Bullish Volume/price action in Apple Today

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 16:51:00 +0000

Notice the increase in volume as apple trades higher.. especially through 512 and 513... 520 could be easily in the cards by afternoon.. Could push NDX into 2605+ .. IF IF IF.. the current trend holds in the index's. Need more cash to flush out of bonds..

1 min aapl

ES and EURO levitating on Greece Bailout Deal

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 02:51:00 +0000

Euro zone reaches deal on second Greek bailout package (130 billion euro....)

S&P500 Futures Look For This Evening

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 02:22:00 +0000

drip drip drip.. wait wait wait.. . 1365 has a lot of mass as does 1360...... 1360 will close the gap. Copper strong. DX strong.. over 79.20 ... currently 79.30

5 min ES

Copper Acting Out This Monday Evening

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 02:17:00 +0000

4 hour zoomed HG (copper Future)

clearly HG has bounced off up-trending support dawn from the 12.19. If this trend holds it could mean a briskly paced march into the 4 level...

BUT before we get excited about a test of the 4$ level we gotta look at copper on a 5-1hour time frame.. Below you can see the consolidation/wedge pattern develop over a period of days. HG needs to get over 3.80, hold and move higher for a clean pattern upside break out.. if not we pivot back into 3.75ish... copper and china are largely correlated. as you know.

15 min HG

Nasdaq Closes Sunday evening Gap As Phantom Market Opens

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 14:44:00 +0000

1 min volume

Yeah.. i dunno what to make of it either.. I guess someone did not get the memo US is closed... During a norma NQ open (market actually open, not closed) we normally see 4-7k contracts trade.. Today 1300 traded were knocking the NQ loose for over 10 handles. carry on.

5 min NQ_F .. The red candle printed @ exactly 9:30 eastern.

Dow 13,000 Achieved Sunday Evening

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 23:14:00 +0000

13011 to be exact.

15 min YM futures. (DOW)

Light Sweet Crude Trades over 105 on Iran & Euro chatter

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 23:13:00 +0000

so far so good... momentum is still building.. perhaps up into 106.. lots of stops and shorts getting pushed around is my guess.

5 min CL

The S&P's have taken out 2012 highs - 1269.5 is this evening's high. Over 1370 could lift a fresh level of buy stops into unseen territory.

15 min ES

April Crude Trades into 104.50 on Headlines Out of Europe

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 23:51:00 +0000

This post is a continuation from Tuesday's Crude Note -

5 min april CL

30 min zoom CL

Mid Day Crude Oil Futures Update

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 17:50:00 +0000

30 min CL

Notice the Yellow up-trendling line still in play as support... If we can get over 103.5 -.6 103.89 could be tested. Needs DX to continue weakness to help support the trend.

5 min CL

making sense of NDX Cash opening Print

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 16:47:00 +0000

1 min NQ futures opening print

CASH.. NDX opening print.. u see the gap down

Decent OI in the 2575's and 2600 calls. Pushing the price against those call holders could cause them to hit the bid. See the long wicked candle in the first chart about 2 minutes before Cash opened? Sure helped inject some uncertainty and vol into nasdaq index before cash open....

now read the CBOE specifications for NDX settlement.

Last Trading Day:Trading in Nasdaq-100^® options will ordinarily cease on the business day (usually a Thursday) preceding the day on which the exercise-settlement value is calculated.

Settlement Value:Exercise will result in delivery of cash on the business day following expiration. The exercise-settlement value, NDS, is calculated using the opening sales price, as determined by the Nasdaq Stock Market, of each component security on the last business day (usually a Friday) before the expiration date. The exercise-settlement amount is equal to the difference between the exercise-settlement value and the exercise price of the option, multiplied by $100

Now that you understand settlement. You should now understand why someone would have the incentive to disturb the futures price in the minutes ahead of cash open.. they were really positioned in options. short.

February Option Expiration S&P500 Chart

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:24:00 +0000

5 min

As you can see the 1355 level held like a champ.. 1358 indeed traded which converted into 1360's.. (refer the last paragraph of my post from last night) 1361.25 is the high. notice the red support line drawn from yesterdays pre market low around 1355.. If this line fails the ES could see quick drop. If the line hold and highs traded we could easily see 1363 and higher.. though we need tech participation for this to happen.

Turn Around Thursday - A linear perspective (MSFT)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 00:58:00 +0000

30 min ES

Yesterdays afternoon volatility coupled with with apple's sell off made for a flurry of speculation the grim reaper is here to claim all the bulls.

Apparently not. Most if not everyone, including myself; got their faces ripped off if you took home OTM Puts for protection.

When thinking in hindsight.. think back to theVIX buying and vol spikes last week.. volatility & put call ratio surely did hint at a possible correction. Remember you obtain insurance to protect a valuable asset from harm.. if harm comes insurance can help make you whole again...... perhaps a winning long position which they intend on keeping long.... in either stocks or index's.

foresight..Confirming the protecting longs thesis today was the break down in 5s, 10s, 30s aided by DX weakness... (printing fears?) If you remember back to last week the 30 year broke down mid day on high volume giving a boost to stocks.. Today we saw very similar action as 142.25 failed in ZB, this sent the ES into day highs..

Yeah i hear you....the rally seems to be getting old but you cant fight it and with what we saw in MSFT and HPQ today, perhaps we are seeing rotation of dollars in and out of individual stocks. This could be a the new form of profit taking. PM's selling off some of their winners to fund the purchase of under performing stocks. Chasing alpha..

15 min NQ (nasdaq futures)

If it were not for MSFT's curious strength this morning whispering in my ear GET OUT OF PUTS and buy calls i would had a pretty lousy day.

The rally started today off 1335's... ES had not visited the area since Friday 2/10/2012. NDX break out coincided with MSFT making a high over 30.74 as well as apple reversing under 500.

The 1335 has proven to be very resilient and should be noted the level has seen substantial volume and trade activity.. 1335 is very similar to the 1346.50 (green dashed line).

The 1212 high for the ES is 1358. If we can trade over 1357 and hold that could convert into 1358's trading and a new set of buy stops could be lifted into 1360's. The downside ledge is a steep one because of how steep the rally was today.. we rallied through 1345's 1350's and 1355s.. thus 1355's is very immediate support with 1350 support giving some solid breathing room.

Trade what you see..

Microsoft Roars over 31 on massive volume (MSFT)

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 17:37:00 +0000

S&Ps are on the highs and MSFT is up nearly 5 percent.

5 min MSFT

as the S&P's trade 20 handles off morning lows. DESPITE apple weakness.

MSFT 1 min notice over 2 million shares crossed as 31 broke..

1 hour MSFT .. notice break out.

Wednesday Night 30 Min Crude update

pythagorahs@gmail.com (sellputs) — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 02:44:00 +0000

30 min CL

In reference to last nights post.....CL remains firm over the yellow dotted support line. If support does indeed fail around the 101.50 level; 101 could come quick, especially if DX remains bid and euro offered.. especially if the headlines are not so boolish.

ES down 7.