The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Nasdaq Up Down On Balance Volume Oscillator

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Nasdaq Up Down On Balance Volume Oscillator appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 15 key reads for Thursday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Article referenced in VideoCast above:

“Chips and Drill Bits” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

The post Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes – VideoCast – Episode 341 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Article referenced in Podcast above:

“Chips and Drill Bits” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

The post Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes – Podcast – Episode 341 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Trade Tip (PIN) – Position Idea Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – “The Big Skinny” Appearance – 4/29/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

S&P 500 Percent Above 50-Day SMA

The post Indicator of the Day (video): S&P 500 Percent Above 50-Day SMA appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 17 key reads for Wednesday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

On Monday, I joined Stuart Varney on Fox Business’ Varney & Co. to discuss markets, the economy, earnings, the consumer, Advance Auto Parts ($AAP), VF Corp ($VFC), and more. Thanks to Stuart and Maggie Edwards for having me on:

On Tuesday, I joined my friend Lou Basanese on his podcast TheBigSkinny to discuss markets, the economy, earnings, the consumer, 3 picks and a lot more. Thanks to Lou and his great team for having me on:

Intel Update

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our Intel thesis, a once left for dead semiconductor giant with a legacy CPU and server franchise back in vogue, alongside a growing foundry business at the center of the U.S. push to rebuild advanced chip manufacturing:

A year ago, the conversation around Intel was whether it could survive. Today, it’s about how fast it can add capacity to meet enormous demand.

That single shift, captured by Lip-Bu Tan on this quarter’s earnings call, sums up the entire arc of our INTC investment better than anything we could write. The same TSMC that watched Intel’s manufacturing arm struggle for the better part of a decade is now publicly calling INTC a “formidable competitor.” The same analysts who downgraded the stock in the hole at $19 are now tripping over themselves to hike price targets. And the same Treasury that picked up its $8.9B stake at $20.47/share is now sitting on over $36B today, a ~4-bagger for Uncle Sam that will go down as one of the greatest trades in taxpayer history.

Admittedly, we were a bit nervous heading into this print, with the stock trading at ~118x earnings after a ~236% rally over the past year to levels not seen since 2000. There was clearly a lot of optimism baked in, whether from the long-awaited prospect of external foundry customers, packaging deals, or growing excitement around the CPU revival. Those factors set a high bar for Intel to clear.

The good news is that INTC didn’t just clear it. It blew it out of the water.

Revenue of $13.58B (+7.2% Y/Y) came in $1.4B above the prior guidance midpoint and ahead of Street consensus of $12.42B. Adjusted EPS of $0.29 crushed breakeven consensus, while adjusted gross margins of 41% beat guidance by 650 bps and marked the highest level in five quarters. Most importantly, no let-up is in sight, with Q2 guidance calling for revenue of $14.3B (+11% Y/Y) and EPS of $0.20 (+$0.30 Y/Y), both well above Street estimates.

The print and guide were enough to remove any remaining question marks and prove the turnaround is taking hold, sending the stock up 24% and setting fresh all-time highs.

Results were driven by demand that now stretches as far as the eye can see and is so thoroughly outstripping supply that INTC is selling chips it had previously written off as scrap. While management declined to quantify the unmet demand opportunity, they made clear it’s meaningful and that “it starts with a B.”

The bigger story is what’s driving the demand. For the past several years, the AI story has been dominated by GPUs and accelerators, with INTC and the “boring” CPU business cast as the casualty. That story is now reversing in spades. As compute shifts from training to inference, and from chatbots to agents, the historical CPU-to-GPU ratio of 1:8 has compressed to 1:4, with management seeing a path to 1:1 or even a tilt toward CPUs.

As the humble CPU reinserts itself as a foundation of the AI era, Intel, the most dominant CPU franchise on the planet, stands to be a massive beneficiary.

That’s why DCAI revenue grew 22% Y/Y this quarter to $5.1B, with operating profit more than doubling Y/Y to $1.5B. It’s why Google signed a multiyear agreement for Xeon deployment, with management hinting that other LTAs of similar scope have been signed but not announced. It’s why Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for NVIDIA’s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems. It’s why the ASIC business is already running at a $1B+ run rate, up more than 30% Q/Q and nearly doubling Y/Y. And it’s why management now sees double-digit unit growth not just in the quarters ahead but in the years ahead.

Then there’s the foundry business, which has gone from a cash-incinerating existential question mark to a legitimate strategic asset almost overnight. Prior to earnings, we got the long-awaited news of Intel’s first major external 14A customer commitment, with Elon confirming on Tesla’s call that he plans to use Intel’s “state of the art” 14A process for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI on the Terafab project. This was always the whipped cream and cherries portion of our original underwriting, a thesis that’s now being validated almost daily.

Which brings us to how we’re positioned today.

When we sold half the position into the move heading into Q4 earnings at ~$55, we walked through the logic in detail on the podcast and in the weekly article. The stock had run from below liquidation value of ~$22/share to $55+ in less than a year, fully pricing in a recovered legacy CPU and server business. Any further upside was effectively the market betting on a near-term external foundry customer announcement. Hope should never be an investment thesis, and we were more than happy to book a 2.5x gain in eighteen months and let the rest ride as a free flyer.

Following this quarter’s results, we trimmed again, booking what has now become a 4-bagger in a matter of ~2 years.

The same logic applies as last quarter. At $82/share, you’re now paying for a fully recovered legacy business (originally assigned $45 to $50 in value) that’s riding the AI CPU wave, plus a foundry business that has finally started landing external customers, though still years out from converting to meaningful revenue. That’s a lot of good news and forward expectations already embedded in the price.

That doesn’t mean we don’t believe in Intel.

In terms of what INTC has already delivered to this point, the stock is without question overvalued. But in terms of what we think it WILL deliver over the next several years, with margins inflecting from trough levels, external foundry revenue beginning to convert, and a structural change in the demand backdrop for CPUs, the stock is still likely inexpensive. Both statements can be true at once. The only difference is that we’re now effectively playing with house money, with our remaining stake a free flyer on the upside scenario that costs us nothing relative to the gains already booked.

And if there’s one person we want at the wheel for what comes next, it’s Lip-Bu Tan. We’ve covered his Cadence track record before, and the math hasn’t changed. Betting against him has never been a profitable trade.

At the end of the day, markets overshoot in both directions. That’s human behavior. In the case of Intel, sentiment has moved from despondency to euphoria in a very short period of time. Our job is to take advantage of those dislocations, not get swept up in them.

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Intel topped expectations across the board for the sixth straight quarter, with results coming in well above the high end of prior guidance on revenue and EPS. Revenue of $13.58B (+7.2% Y/Y and roughly flat Q/Q) was $1.4B above the prior guidance midpoint of $12.2B and ahead of Street consensus of $12.42B. Adjusted EPS of $0.29 (+123% Y/Y) crushed prior breakeven guidance and Street estimates of $0.01.

2) Adjusted gross margins of 41% (+180 bps Y/Y) came in well above prior guidance of 34.5%, while adjusted operating margins of 12.3% expanded 690 bps Y/Y. Management made it clear that further margin expansion remains a top priority from trough levels of just over 36% seen in both FY24 and FY25, eyeing a path back toward 40%+ in the near term, with plenty of room to move higher over time compared to Intel’s heyday of consistent 60%+ gross margins.

3) Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) revenue of $5.1B (+22% Y/Y and +7% Q/Q) beat consensus of $4.4B. Segment operating profit of $1.5B (~31% operating margins) more than doubled Y/Y from $0.6B and rose $292M Q/Q on improved product margins, better cycle times, and stronger yields on Intel 3. Server CPU supply is effectively sold out through 2026, with factories running above 100% capacity and management noting that the unmet demand revenue opportunity “starts with a B.” Management now expects double-digit segment growth to continue through 2026 and into 2027. Intel also signed multiple long-term agreements during the quarter, including a multiyear collaboration with Google for continued deployment of Xeon processors, while Xeon 6 was selected as the host CPU for NVIDIA’s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems.

4) Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue of $7.7B (+1% Y/Y and -6% Q/Q) beat consensus of $7.1B, helped by Core Ultra Series 3 representing the strongest CCG product launch in five years and AI PC revenue growing 8% Q/Q to ~60% of the client CPU mix. That said, management is prudently planning for PC demand to weaken in the second half as memory shortages and rising component prices weigh on pricing, with full-year PC unit TAM now expected to decline by the low double digits despite near-term orders remaining robust. As a result, client revenue is expected to be roughly flat from Q2 onward.

5) Intel Foundry posted revenue of $5.4B (+16% Y/Y and +20% Q/Q), with external foundry revenue reaching $174M. Segment operating loss improved by $72M Q/Q to $2.4B on better yields across Intel 4, 3, and 18A, partially offset by an intentional step-up in 14A investment to support external customer evaluations. The advanced packaging backlog continues to grow, with management now confident these opportunities will be worth billions per customer rather than the hundreds of millions previously expected. Intel also announced a multiyear expansion of back-end facilities in Malaysia to support rising global demand for packaging solutions, which is expected to begin converting to revenue in 2027.

6) Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI committed to using Intel’s 14A process for the Terafab project, confirmed by Elon Musk on Tesla’s Q1 call, where he called it “state of the art.” This is the first major external 14A customer announcement and arrives ahead of management’s prior timeline, which had pointed to firm customer decisions beginning in H2 2026 and extending into H1 2027. Beyond Terafab, management noted that 14A yield and performance are outpacing 18A at the same point in maturity, with multiple additional customers actively evaluating the technology and PDK development progressing faster than 18A did. Management continues to point to firm customer decisions beginning in H2 2026, with Investor Day in H2 a potential platform, and extending into H1 2027.

7) Intel 18A is still early in its ramp but is tracking ahead of internal expectations, with management noting that the original year-end yield target will likely be achieved by mid-year, a meaningful pull-forward driven by a deliberate push on yields and cycle times. 18A is now powering Core Ultra Series 3 in full-volume production ramp, which, alongside Intel 3-based Xeon 6, represents the fastest new product ramp at Intel in five years. That said, 18A remains a near-term gross margin headwind given the early-ramp cost structure, with management still expecting a multi-quarter path before foundry margins on 18A reach the segment average.

8) The big driver behind the explosive growth in DCAI is a structural shift in AI workload mix that is finally tilting toward Intel’s CPU franchise. Management noted that the shift in compute from training to inference and agentic applications has already narrowed the historical CPU-to-GPU ratio from 1:8 to 1:4, with a path toward 1:1 or even a tilt toward CPUs amid the continuing migration toward inference and agentic workloads. Management is confident this structural shift in demand for the CPU franchise will be a meaningful growth engine in the years ahead, not just quarters, with strong visibility into double-digit unit growth for both the industry and Intel.

9) Capex will now be roughly flat Y/Y (vs. FY25 capex of $17.7B), compared to prior plans for reduced spending, with tool spending now expected to rise ~25% Y/Y as Intel leans into demand while pulling back materially on new space. Q1 operating cash flow was $1.1B against gross capex of $5B, producing adjusted FCF of -$2B, though management still expects positive adjusted FCF for the full year, excluding the Fab 34 joint investment buyout. The Fab 34 buyout, which closed during the quarter, repurchased the 49% JV equity interest in the Ireland facility for $7.7B in cash and $6.5B in new debt, a highly accretive deal that allows shareholders to capture the full economic benefits from a fab now hitting its stride.

10) Q2 guidance came in well above consensus expectations, with revenue of $13.8B to $14.8B (+2% to +9% Q/Q) versus Street estimates of $13.07B, and adjusted EPS of $0.20 versus consensus of $0.09. At the midpoint of $14.3B, that implies revenue of +$1.4B Y/Y, gross margins of 39% (+930 bps Y/Y), and EPS up $0.30 Y/Y. Management did flag that 2026 opex is now likely to come in above the prior $16B target due to inflationary pressures, variable comp, and targeted investments to capture the opportunities ahead.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

National Oilwell Varco

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of our NOV thesis, a pick-and-shovel oilfield equipment leader positioned for an accelerating energy upcycle as offshore and international reassert themselves after a decade-plus of underinvestment:

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) NOV reported Q1 revenue of $2.05B (-2.4% Y/Y and -10% Q/Q), in line with consensus and pre-announced results. Management estimated a ~$54M headwind to Q1 revenue from the conflict in the Middle East, noting that, adjusted for this impact, Y/Y revenue would have been roughly flat. Adjusted EPS of $0.11 missed consensus by $0.04.

2) Adjusted EBITDA came in at $177M, in line with pre-announced results, down $75M Y/Y to 8.6% of sales versus 12.0% in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was pressured by an estimated $32M Middle East impact, driven by higher operating costs from increased freight expenses and lower absorption at manufacturing facilities. Management continues to execute against its ongoing $100M cost-out program, having reduced global headcount by ~8% and exited more than 40 facilities since Q1 2025. These initiatives have been largely offset by tariff costs, IT investments, and inflationary pressures to date, but excluding Middle East impacts, management expects them to more than offset tariffs and inflation beginning in H2 2026, setting up improved margins into 2027.

3) Energy Equipment segment revenue of $1.19B (+4% Y/Y and -11% Q/Q) marked the fourth consecutive quarter of Y/Y revenue growth, led by continued strength in offshore production-related businesses, which drove 16% growth in capital equipment sales, partially offset by a 12% decline in aftermarket sales and services. Adjusted EBITDA of $131M (-21% Y/Y) was pressured by a lower mix of high-margin aftermarket revenue and Middle East disruptions, resulting in 340 bps of Y/Y margin contraction to 11.0%. New orders totaled $520M, up 19% Y/Y and marking the strongest Q1 order intake since 2019, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 80%, with backlog ending at $4.23B (-$184M Y/Y). Encouragingly, management continues to expect full-year 2026 book-to-bill at or near 100%. A bright spot within the segment remains the subsea flexible pipe business, which posted record quarterly EBITDA for the third consecutive quarter, with backlog now extending into 2028 and a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 100% for four straight years. To capitalize on that strength, NOV recently approved a $200M expansion of its subsea flexible pipe facility in Brazil aimed at doubling capacity over the next three years to address a developing capacity shortfall as offshore activity accelerates.

4) Energy Products and Services segment revenue of $897M (-10% Y/Y and -9% Q/Q) was negatively impacted by Middle East disruptions that delayed capital equipment deliveries, more than offsetting market share gains in the drill bit business and increasing adoption of digital services. Adjusted EBITDA of $96M (-34% Y/Y) was pressured by lower volumes, manufacturing absorption impacts, higher tariff costs, and inflationary raw material pressures, leading to 390 bps of Y/Y margin contraction to 10.7%. A bright spot across the segment was the composites business, which posted record quarterly bookings, resulting in backlog reaching its highest level in 10 quarters. Drill pipe orders also outpaced the past three years’ average quarterly bookings, with backlog at its highest level in 2.5 years.

5) The conflict in the Middle East created significant operational disruptions during the quarter, with quarter-end deliveries delayed, freight costs spiking to 3-4x normal levels, and offshore service and repair activity disrupted across the region. While near-term challenges are expected to persist into Q2, conditions have improved meaningfully from the height of the conflict as the ceasefire holds. More importantly, once disruptions fully normalize, management views the situation as having accelerated and amplified what they see as a meaningful new capital equipment upcycle. The global oil market, expected to be oversupplied by 2-3M bpd coming into the year, has shifted to a meaningful deficit, with ~10M bpd of shut-in production and damaged regional infrastructure requiring drawdowns of strategic reserves worldwide. Management cited industry analysis suggesting ~10,000 wells across the region are currently offline, with up to 3,000 requiring meaningful intervention, ~1,000 potentially requiring major workovers or recompletions, and permanent capacity loss potentially ranging from 500K bpd to 2.5M bpd. The work required to restore production alone should drive elevated activity over multiple quarters, and potentially longer, with management noting the market will remain undersupplied for an extended period even after the conflict resolves.

6) NOV returned $100M of capital to shareholders during the quarter through $67M in share repurchases (~3.5M shares) and $33M in dividends, reflecting the previously announced 20% increase in the quarterly base dividend. Over the past eight quarters, NOV has returned more than $900M to shareholders, with a supplemental dividend planned for Q2 to true up the ongoing commitment of returning at least 50% of excess FCF.

7) NOV continues to maintain a fortress balance sheet, with $1.34B in cash and equivalents, $1.50B available on its primary revolving credit facility (recently extended one year through 2030), and total debt of $1.72B, with the next maturity not until 2029. This implies net debt leverage of <1x and gross leverage of <2x, supporting NOV’s investment-grade credit rating.

8) Free cash flow during the quarter was an outflow of $91M (vs. +$51M in the prior year) on operating cash flow of -$26M, weighed down by Middle East-related working capital build and lower EBITDA. Despite the soft Q1 print, working capital intensity improved 400 bps Y/Y to 26.7% of revenue, with management continuing to expect full-year 2026 EBITDA-to-FCF conversion of 40% to 50% and cash generation ramping through the remainder of the year.

9) Tariff costs reached $30M during the quarter, with Q2 and the foreseeable future expected to remain in roughly the same range, as the Section 232 exclusion-related shift has created incremental cost pressure. On the positive side, NOV filed a claim for a refund associated with the February Supreme Court ruling on EPA tariffs, with a potential recovery of ~$40M not currently reflected in Q2 guidance.

10) For Q2, management expects revenue down 4% to 6% Y/Y and adjusted EBITDA of $185M to $215M (vs. $252M in the prior year), with Energy Equipment revenue down 2% to 4% Y/Y and EBITDA of $135M to $155M, and Energy Products and Services revenue down 6% to 8% Y/Y and EBITDA of $100M to $120M. The Q2 guide assumes the ceasefire holds but the strait remains closed, with Middle East impact slightly larger than Q1 but not materially different. Management noted that if the conflict ended and the strait reopened in the near term, full-year 2026 results could still come in broadly in line with 2025. Management remains highly constructive on the medium- to long-term industry outlook, eyeing late 2026 and 2027 as the environment where “all eight cylinders of NOV’s engine can fire,” a setup that has been years in the making but is being accelerated by the current disruption.

Earnings Call Highlights

General Market

The CNN “Fear and Greed Index” remained unchanged at 68 week over week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) rose to 94.15% equity exposure this week from last week’s 79.49%.

Our podcast|videocast will be out sometime today. We have a lot of great data to cover this week.  Each week, we have a segment called “Ask Me Anything (AMA)” where we answer questions sent in by our audience. If you have a question for this week’s episode, please send it in at the contact form here.

Larger accounts $5-10M+ can access bespoke service anytime here.

Not a solicitation.

*Opinion, Not Advice. See Terms

The post “Chips and Drill Bits” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

NAAIM Equity Exposure Index

(National Association of Active Investment Managers)

The post Indicator of the Day (video): NAAIM Equity Exposure Index appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 17 key reads for Tuesday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The column under the date 4/27/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (2/26/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are DOWN. More estimates went DOWN for 2026 in the past 60 days than came UP. The Up:Down ratio was 9:21.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised DOWN by -10.21% in the past 60 days. 2027 estimates went DOWN by -0.94%.

The post Biotech Earnings Estimates/Revisions appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The column under the date 4/27/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (2/26/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are DOWN. More estimates went DOWN for 2026 in the past 60 days than came UP. The Up:Down ratio was 13:17.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised DOWN by -64.30% in the past 60 days. 2027 estimates went DOWN by -24.36%.

The post (Equal Weight) Biotech Earnings Estimates/Revisions appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Bullish Percent Energy

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Bullish Percent Energy appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Fox Business – Varney & Co – Appearance – 4/27/26 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 12 key reads for Monday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

S&P 500 Advances

The post Indicator of the Day (video): S&P 500 Advances appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 12 key reads for Sunday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Article referenced in VideoCast above:

“Past the Turbulence” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

The post Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes – VideoCast – Episode 340 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Article referenced in Podcast above:

“Past the Turbulence” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

The post Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes – Podcast – Episode 340 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Thanks to Ian King for including me in his article on Bloomberg. You can find it here:

Click Here to View The Full Article on Bloomberg

The post Tom Hayes – Quoted in Bloomberg Article – 4/23/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

S&P Small Cap Volume Summation Index

The post Indicator of the Day (video): S&P Small Cap Volume Summation Index appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 15 key reads for Saturday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Nasdaq – Breadth Thrust

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Nasdaq – Breadth Thrust appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 17 key reads for Friday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Thanks to Niket Nishant and Chuck Mikolajczak for including me in their article on Reuters. You can find it here:

Click Here to View The Full Reuters Article

The post Tom Hayes – Quoted in Reuters article – 4/23/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Bloomberg TV Appearance – 4/23/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Bullish Percent Materials

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Bullish Percent Materials appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 17 key reads for Thursday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

On Monday, I joined Charles Payne on Fox Business to discuss markets, the economy, the consumer, QXO ($QXO), GXO ($GXO), Boeing ($BA), VF Corp ($VFC), Papa John’s ($PZZA), and more. Thanks to Charles and Nicholas Palazzo for having me on:

On Tuesday, I joined Stuart Varney and Taylor Riggs on Fox Business’ Varney & Co. to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, the Fed, Apple ($AAPL), PayPal ($PYPL), Amazon ($AMZN), Disney ($DIS), and more. Thanks to Stuart, Taylor, and Maggie Edwards for having me on:

On Tuesday, I joined Brian Brenberg and Lydia Hu on Fox Business’ The Bottom Line to discuss AI, the infrastructure buildout, energy, Comstock Resources ($CRK), and more. Thanks to Brian, Lydia, and Samantha McCormack for having me on:

On Wednesday, I joined Brian Brenberg, Taylor Riggs, Jackie DeAngelis, and Dagen McDowell Fox Business’ The Big Money Show to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, Iran, AI, Warren Buffett, and more. Thanks to Brian, Taylor, Jackie, Dagen, and Anastasia Cavounis for having me on:

On Monday, I joined Diane King Hall on the Schwab Network to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, Iran, earnings, VF Corp ($VFC), Papa John’s ($PZZA), Cooper Standard ($CPS), and more. Thanks to Diane and Kaitlyn Crist for having me on:

On Monday, I joined Ashley Mastronardi on NYSE TV to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, Iran, earnings, VF Corp ($VFC), Papa John’s ($PZZA), and more. Thanks to Ashley and Mel Montanez for having me on:

On Thursday, I joined Brian Sozzi on Yahoo! Finance to discuss markets, the economy, Iran, Intel ($INTC), and more. Thanks to Brian and Justin Oliver for having me on:

Boeing Update

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our Boeing thesis, as one half of the global commercial aerospace duopoly where demand has never been the issue and supply, under CEO Kelly Ortberg, is finally starting to catch up:

Boeing kicked off our Q1 earnings season on the right foot, with every metric that matters in this multi-year recovery moving in the right direction.

Starting with the headline numbers, revenue of $22.2B (+14% Y/Y) beat consensus by $290M, the adjusted loss of $0.20 per share came in far better than the $0.76 loss the Street was bracing for, and free cash flow burn of just $1.45B was nearly half of the $2.61B consensus had penciled in. Clean beats across the board.

Commercial deliveries once again did the heavy lifting. Boeing handed over 143 airplanes in the quarter, the most in any first quarter since 2019, and outshipped European rival Airbus by 29 jets. That’s the widest delivery gap over Airbus going back to 2018, a stat that would have sounded like fiction twelve months ago, when being constructive on Boeing got you looked at like you had three heads. Now that the stock has climbed nearly 70% since the Liberation Day lows, investors have suddenly rediscovered the global aerospace leader and are excited again. Welcome aboard, albeit at prices where we’re already well on our way to a double.

One of the big reasons we got comfortable making the original investment, besides Boeing being a national champion and global duopoly, was the long and forgiving runway of a half-trillion-dollar backlog. That backlog continues to set new records, reaching $695B with over 6,100 commercial airplanes, more than a decade of production runway at the current pace. Boeing’s troubles never stemmed from a demand problem. Demand has consistently outstripped supply, with airlines clamoring for every plane they can get their hands on. All Boeing had to do was safely build them, something they are finally starting to do.

Which brings us to the heart of the thesis: free cash flow. Deliver more planes, generate more cash. Six words that capture the entire turnaround.

Q1 showed continued progress on this front, with the $1.45B burn (normal seasonality) coming in far better than feared and management reiterating the $1-3B positive FCF target for the full year, the first positive year since 2023. And while it’s great to see FCF finally flip positive, the recovery is still in the very early innings. As production ramps and one-time headwinds roll off, the long-awaited $10B annual figure should have the green light by 2028, a figure that increasingly looks like a pit stop rather than the final destination.

Beyond the numbers, the setup for the back half looks as clean and catalyst-rich as anything we’ve seen in years. We’re finally closing in on the long-awaited Trump-Xi summit (set for May 14-15), the key driver behind Boeing reportedly closing on one of the largest orders in its history: ~500 737 MAX jets, along with discussions for another ~100 widebody aircraft, including 787s and 777Xs. As we’ve said before, a Boeing order has increasingly become the price of admission in US trade negotiations. With the world’s greatest salesman setting up shop in Beijing in a few weeks, we’d be surprised if he came home empty-handed.

On top of that, Boeing is benefiting from tailwinds across its booming defense business, with revenue climbing 21% in the quarter to $7.6B and a newly signed seven-year framework agreement to TRIPLE PAC-3 Seeker production. With a proposed $1.5T FY2027 defense budget (the largest year-over-year increase in defense spending in the post-WWII era), no let-up looks to be in sight.

All of which is to say, this quarter marked another meaningful step forward for the global aerospace leader, and investors are finally starting to take notice. The national champion and proxy for US manufacturing that you couldn’t give away in the $130s last year is now doing exactly what we expected: delivering more planes, generating more cash, and reminding everyone why duopolies with decade-long backlogs tend to work out just fine for investors who can stomach a little short-term noise.

There’s still plenty of work to be done, but with Kelly Ortberg in the pilot seat and the factory floor (safely) humming again, our confidence in the turnaround has never been higher. From here, it’s all about execution, and there’s nobody we’d rather have in charge of it than Ortberg.

Clear skies ahead.

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Boeing posted Q1 revenue of $22.2B (+13.8% Y/Y), beating consensus of $21.9B by $290M, driven by solid growth across all three segments. Adjusted loss per share came in at $0.20, far better than the $0.76 loss analysts had forecast.

2) The Commercial Airplanes segment posted revenue of $9.2B (+13% Y/Y) during the quarter, driven by 143 deliveries, up 10% Y/Y and the highest first quarter delivery total since 2019. Notably, Boeing outshipped European rival Airbus by 29 jets during the quarter, the widest delivery gap since 2018. Segment operating margin improved modestly to (6.1%) from (6.6%) last year, with management expecting sequential improvement throughout the year and positive operating margins by mid-2027. Commercial backlog reached a record ~$576B, including over 6,100 airplanes, with 140 net orders booked during the quarter.

3) The 737 program stabilized at 42 aircraft per month during the quarter, delivering the final 737 MAX out of storage while continuing to drive quality improvements, with final assembly rework hours down nearly 20% Y/Y. Boeing delivered 114 737s in Q1 and remains on track for the full-year target of ~500 deliveries. Management also reiterated its plan to increase production to 47 per month this summer, noting that the recent wiring issue (which held up 25 jets, most of which have since been reworked and delivered) will not affect full-year delivery plans. Both internal and external supply chains are well positioned for the next step up, with the new Everett North Line now prepared to support future rate increases beyond 47 per month.

4) The 787 program stabilized at 8 aircraft per month during the quarter, with rework hours down more than 25% Y/Y. Boeing delivered 15 787s in Q1, in line with guidance and up from 13 last year, and continues to target 90-100 deliveries for the full year. The program is working through some premium seat certification delays that have impacted delivery timing, though management emphasized the impact is contained to deliveries rather than production, as the airplanes can still be built but not yet handed over to customers. The next rate increase to 10 per month remains on track for later this year.

5) The Defense, Space & Security segment posted revenue of $7.6B (+21% Y/Y), handily beating consensus estimates of $6.5B. Operating margin expanded 60 bps Y/Y to 3.1%, driven by higher volume on KC-46 Tanker, missiles and weapons, and classified programs, with management expecting further expansion toward ~3.5% throughout the year. Boeing booked $9B of orders during the quarter, growing the backlog to a record ~$86B with 27% coming from international customers, and signed a seven-year framework agreement to TRIPLE PAC-3 Seeker production amid surging demand. Management reiterated its confidence in the segment’s march toward high-single-digit operating margins and expects meaningful upside to its five-year defense outlook given the current environment and rising US and allied defense budgets. Most importantly, the segment continues to reduce risk across development programs, with no major EAC adjustments during the quarter and new opportunities subject to tighter underwriting standards.

6) The Global Services segment posted revenue of $5.4B (+6% Y/Y) during the quarter, which jumps to +13% Y/Y when excluding the impact of the Digital Aviation Solutions divestiture. Both commercial and government businesses delivered double-digit operating margins, with overall operating margin contracting 50 bps Y/Y to 18.1% on the DAS divestiture and less favorable mix. BGS booked $8B of orders during the quarter for a book-to-bill of 1.6, ending with a record backlog of ~$33B. The segment also signed the largest landing gear exchange agreement in Boeing’s history with Singapore Airlines, covering more than 75 aircraft across their 737 MAX and 787 fleets. BGS has also implemented automation and AI to reduce proposal cycle time by ~25% YTD, a great example of what we mean when we say AI BENEFICIARY vs AI COST CENTER.

7) Free cash flow burn of $1.45B came in MUCH BETTER than the $2.61B consensus had penciled in and improved significantly from the $2.29B outflow last year. Management reiterated its 2026 free cash flow target of $1-3B, with Q2 expected to be a modest outflow in the range of a few hundred million and the back half turning positive and accelerating sequentially (includes the expected DOJ payment, now assumed to occur in the second half). Management also reiterated that the long-awaited $10B annual free cash flow figure remains very attainable, with significant growth beyond that level into the next decade.

8) Cash and marketable securities ended the quarter at $20.9B, down from $29.4B at year-end, primarily reflecting debt repayments and the quarter’s FCF usage. Consolidated debt declined to $47.2B from $54.1B, with $1.4B of maturities remaining for the year and $10B of undrawn credit facilities available. Management remains firmly committed to strengthening the balance sheet and maintaining Boeing’s investment-grade credit rating as a top priority.

9) Management continues to expect certification of the long-delayed 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 later this year, with deliveries starting in 2027 and the FAA noting no roadblocks to approval. The 737-10 made progress on the final phase of certification flight testing during the quarter, and the 787-9 and 787-10 received FAA certification for increased maximum takeoff weight. On the 777X, the program continues to make good progress, with first delivery still expected in 2027, and GE Aerospace believes it has identified the root cause of the previously flagged engine durability issue and is working on finalizing a modification.

10) On the Iran War, management noted ZERO impact on airplane deliveries to date, with no customers requesting delivery deferrals and no material supply chain disruptions. Boeing has delivered four airplanes to customers in the region as planned since the conflict began. While ~14% of Boeing’s unit backlog is tied to Middle East customers, two-thirds of that backlog delivers in 2030 and beyond, giving Boeing plenty of flexibility to re-sequence airplanes within a 12-18 month timeframe if needed. Several other customers have also already offered to pull forward deliveries if opportunities arise.

Earnings Call Highlights

Crown Castle Update

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our Crown Castle thesis, the only pure-play U.S. tower REIT and a high-yield income name that becomes increasingly hard to ignore as rates come down and capital rotates back into yield:

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Q1 site rental revenue of $961M was down 5% Y/Y, with adjusted EBITDA of $675M (-7% Y/Y) and AFFO per share of $1.02 (-7% Y/Y). The Y/Y declines are almost entirely driven by the DISH termination and residual Sprint churn, masking healthy underlying leasing activity that continues to track in line with management’s full-year expectations.

2) The $8.5B sale of the small cell and fiber solutions business remains on track to close by June 30, 2026, with management noting that almost all required approvals have been received and the operational separation of the two businesses is largely complete. Proceeds will be used to repay ~$7B of debt (reducing annual interest expense by ~$120M) and fund ~$1B in share repurchases. Upon closing, CCI will become the only publicly traded pure-play tower company focused exclusively on the US market.

3) Following DISH’s default on its payment obligations in January, CCI terminated the agreement and is now pursuing recovery of the remaining $3.5B+ owed through 2036 via federal court. During the quarter, management amended its pending litigation against DISH to include a breach of contract claim alongside the existing request for declaratory judgment, as well as a claim against EchoStar for its role in helping DISH evade its contractual obligations. Alongside the Wireless Infrastructure Association, management has also been actively engaging with relevant government authorities to ensure DISH honors its commitments. Management remains highly confident in the legal case but noted the court process is likely to take at least a year to resolve, with 2026 guidance excluding any contributions from DISH.

4) Organic growth came in at 3.1% for the quarter, excluding the impact of DISH terminations and Sprint cancellations, or 3.3% on an apples-to-apples basis once DISH is also removed from the prior year base. Growth was driven by +1.6% from core leasing activity and +2.7% from price escalators, partially offset by -0.7% from non-renewals and -0.3% from other billings, compared to 3.9% in Q1 2025. Management continues to view FY26 as the trough year for organic growth at 3.5% ex-DISH and ex-Sprint, with improvement expected thereafter as Sprint churn fully rolls off and new spectrum deployments begin to drive leasing activity higher.

5) Management successfully executed the previously announced restructuring of the tower and corporate organizations during the quarter, reducing the workforce by ~20% and delivering an anticipated $65M reduction in annualized run-rate operating costs versus 2025 levels. Of that total, $55M is expected to be realized in FY26, with the incremental $10M realized in 2027 due to the timing of non-labor reductions following the fiber sale close. Beyond the current restructuring, management is confident that ongoing investments in platforms, systems, and automation can drive an additional 200+ bps of margin improvement by 2030.

6) Management remains committed to maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet, ending the quarter with 79% of debt fixed, a weighted average debt maturity of ~6 years, and $2.8B of available liquidity under the revolving credit facility. Post fiber sale, leverage is expected to decline to the targeted 6x to 6.5x range as ~$7B of debt is repaid, further strengthening the balance sheet ahead of the pure-play transition.

7) CCI paid $473M in common stock dividends during the quarter, or $1.0625 per share (-32% Y/Y), in line with the previously announced plan to maintain the annualized dividend at $4.25 per share (current yield of ~5.0%), with a targeted payout ratio of 75-80% of AFFO and the dividend expected to grow in line with AFFO over time.

8) The long-term industry backdrop remains highly attractive, supported by persistent mobile data demand growth, upcoming spectrum deployments from CCI’s customers, and the FCC’s planned auction of at least 800 MHz of new spectrum beginning in 2027, which positions the US for a leadership role in emerging 6G. Management also pointed to an emerging edge compute opportunity, with CCI’s ~40,000 tower sites offering existing fiber, power, and physical space that could be repurposed for data center co-location, effectively extending the “rent out real estate” business model from vertical to horizontal.

9) On the competitive threat from satellite, management noted that current offerings remain a complementary technology rather than a substitute, with meaningful limitations around in-building coverage, line of sight, and mobility use cases. Public statements from carriers, satellite operators, and the Satellite Industry Association all point to the same conclusion, with management describing the impact on CCI’s business as de minimis and tower economics remaining firmly intact.

10) Management maintained full-year 2026 guidance across the board, with site rental revenues of $3.85B (-5% Y/Y), adjusted EBITDA of $2.69B (-6% Y/Y), and AFFO of $4.43 per share (+2% Y/Y) at the midpoint. The headline declines are entirely driven by the $220M DISH termination and $20M in residual Sprint cancellations, masking healthy underlying core leasing growth of +3.5% ex-churn. Importantly, AFFO is still expected to grow despite the $240M combined headwind, supported by opex savings and lower interest expense.

Earnings Call Highlights

General Market

The CNN “Fear and Greed Index” ticked up to 68 this week from 47 last week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) rose to 79.49% equity exposure this week from last week’s 69.38%.

Our podcast|videocast will be out sometime today. We have a lot of great data to cover this week.  Each week, we have a segment called “Ask Me Anything (AMA)” where we answer questions sent in by our audience. If you have a question for this week’s episode, please send it in at the contact form here.

Larger accounts $5-10M+ can access bespoke service anytime here.

Not a solicitation.

*Opinion, Not Advice. See Terms

The post “Past the Turbulence” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Fox Business – Big Money Show Appearance – 4/22/26 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Dow Jones Industrials Stocks Above 50 Day MA

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Dow Jones Industrials Stocks Above 50 Day MA appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Fox Business – The Bottom Line Appearance – 4/21/26 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 20 key reads for Wednesday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Fox Business – Varney & Co – Appearance – 4/21/26 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

CBOE Skew Index

The post Indicator of the Day (video): CBOE Skew Index appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 18 key reads for Tuesday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Fox Business Appearance – Charles Payne – 4/20/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The column under the date 4/20/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (2/19/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are UP. More estimates went UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than went DOWN. The UP:DOWN ratio was 23:5. The rest remained the same.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of the group went UP by +16.46% in the last 60 days. 2027 estimates are UP +30.70% in the past 60 days.

The post IBD 50 Growth Index (top 30 weights) Earnings Estimates appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The column under the date 4/20/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (2/19/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are DOWN. More estimates went DOWN for 2026 in the past 60 days than went UP. The UP:DOWN ratio was 10:16.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of the group went UP by +4.13% in the last 60 days. 2027 estimates are UP +2.42% in the past 60 days.

The post Basic Materials (XLB)- Earnings Estimates/Revisions appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Schwab Network Appearance – 4/20/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Pring Emerging Market Diffusion Indicator

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Pring Emerging Market Diffusion Indicator appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – NYSE TV Appearance – 4/20/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 15 key reads for Monday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Consumer Staples New High New Low %

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Consumer Staples New High New Low % appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 11 key reads for Sunday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

S&P Real Estate Stocks Above 200 EMA

The post Indicator of the Day (video): S&P Real Estate Stocks Above 200 EMA appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 12 key reads for Saturday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Article referenced in VideoCast above:

“Bought Before the Buzz” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

The post Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes – VideoCast – Episode 339 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Article referenced in Podcast above:

“Bought Before the Buzz” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

The post Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes – Podcast – Episode 339 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

DOW Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator

The post Indicator of the Day (video): DOW Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 16 key reads for Friday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Yahoo Finance Appearance – 4/16/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

S&P 500 Bullish Percent

The post Indicator of the Day (video): S&P 500 Bullish Percent appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 21 key reads for Thursday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Tips (PCN) – Position Completion Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Trade Tip (PIN) – Position Idea Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Trade Tip (PIN) – Position Idea Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Hedge Fund Trade Tip (PIN) – Position Idea Notification appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

Nasdaq Stocks Above 200 Day MA

The post Indicator of the Day (video): Nasdaq Stocks Above 200 Day MA appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Be in the know. 22 key reads for Wednesday… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

On Tuesday, I joined Stuart Varney on Fox Business’ Varney & Co. to discuss Iran, markets, the economy, outlook, earnings, banks, and a lot more. Thanks to Stuart and Maggie Edwards for having me on:

On Tuesday, I joined Joel Elconin on the Stock Trader Network’s “PreMarket Prep” show to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, and the latest developments. Thanks to Joel and Zoltan Suranyi for having me on:

Bank of America Fund Manager Survey Update

On Tuesday, we put out a summary of the monthly Bank of America “Global Fund Manager Survey.” This month they surveyed 193 institutional managers with ~$563B AUM:

April 2026 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)

Here were the 5 key points:

1) Fund manager sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocations, and global growth expectations, fell from 5.6 last month to 3.7 in April, the most bearish reading since June 2025 (keep in mind, three-quarters of managers responded before the ceasefire announcement on April 8th). While that’s still a long way from the true capitulation levels seen in recent washouts (April 2025 “tariff tantrum” at 1.7, October 2023 SPX low at 1.6, July 2022 post-SVB at 0.3), zoom out and the playbook hasn’t changed: these “elevator down” collapses in sentiment have consistently proven to be buying opportunities served on a silver platter, a chance to add exposure to GOOD companies at EVEN BETTER prices. This time has once again proven to be no different.

2) Global equity allocation dropped from a net 37% overweight to just 13% overweight in April, the least overweight positioning since July 2025. While managers are certainly lightening up, they haven’t thrown in the towel yet. For context, prior recent lows saw managers go outright underweight, hitting a net 17% underweight in April 2025 and a net 52% underweight in September 2022.

3) The share of fund managers saying US equities are overvalued dropped to a net 64% in April, the lowest reading since February 2019. Something we continue to fall back on, and the reason we remain so constructive, is the earnings engine that keeps accelerating and powering equities higher. Full-year S&P 500 earnings growth estimates have been revised HIGHER since the beginning of the Iran War, now at 17.6% versus the prior 14.7%. The recent pullback has been driven entirely by multiple contraction (-18%), a rare setup alongside accelerating earnings growth and one that sets the table for the next leg higher.

4) Fund managers’ average cash levels held steady at 4.3% in April, the highest since May 2025 after the biggest single-month jump since COVID during the March survey. As we said from the beginning, this “event” started with a tweet and will end with a tweet, with the positive news and progress over the past few days catching positioning way offside and powering the V-shaped recovery seen since.

5) Global growth expectations have rolled over meaningfully, dropping from 7% last month to -36% in April, the lowest reading since August 2025. Once again, macro expectations and sentiment have diverged from US equity prices, with S&P 500 Y/Y performance still well in positive territory. Historically, these kinds of disconnects tend to be short-lived and consistently resolve higher, with markets proving far more resilient than the fear suggests.

Diageo Update

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our thesis on Diageo, the world’s largest premium spirits company priced as if nobody will ever sip alcohol again as the market mistakes a cyclical hangover for permanent impairment:

Diageo’s 1H FY2026 earnings report was a textbook kitchen sink quarter, the kind you tend to see whenever a brand new CEO steps into a turnaround situation. The idea is simple: take all your medicine at once by releasing every piece of bad news, cutting the dividend, and lowering expectations to the floor so that everything moving forward becomes GOOD NEWS.

That’s exactly what Dave Lewis delivered in his first earnings call as CEO of the world’s largest spirits company. He cut the dividend to a floor of $0.50 per share (vs. $1.03 in FY2025) and reduced the payout ratio to just 30-50% going forward. Full-year guidance was lowered, with organic sales now projected to decline -2% to -3% (previously flat to slightly down) and operating profit growth revised to flat to low single digits (previously low to mid single digits).

Most importantly, Lewis laid out every pain point prior management had failed to properly address with zero sugar coating: persistent capacity constraints at Guinness that continue to leave demand unmet, customer service levels he described as “very poor” following years of underinvestment, and a neglected mass-market segment after more than a decade of pushing the premiumization angle at the expense of everything else.

The good news is that Lewis didn’t just lay out the problems. Just seven weeks into the role, he laid out three immediate priorities to tackle them head on: portfolio repositioning, rebuilding customer relationships, and redesigning the operating framework.

On portfolio repositioning, this is the same playbook Lewis ran at Tesco: cut prices selectively to reposition brands, claw back share, and offset any margin dilution with volume gains. It’s no secret that Diageo’s portfolio skews heavily toward the premium end, especially in tequila where 70% of units sell north of $45 compared to just 35% for the broader market. That strategy has left flagship brands like Casamigos and Don Julio essentially competing with each other at the very top while the mass market goes unserved. Lewis sees selective repositioning as not only an opportunity to build a more resilient portfolio less dependent on the economic cycle, but to add incremental business rather than cannibalize what is already there. For those concerned about near-term margin dilution as a result, as Lewis put it: “you don’t take percentages to the bank, you take cash to the bank.”

On customer relationships, Lewis was very clear: on-trade capability dismantled during COVID has been slow and patchy in its rebuild, and off-trade systems are not fit for purpose, with Diageo still entering 65% of its customer orders manually. In his eyes, that is an opportunity to shift from growing through customers to growing with customers by helping them build their categories and gaining disproportionately from that growth.

On the operating framework, this is an area where we suspected there’s plenty of low-hanging fruit. Lewis, who earned the nickname “Drastic Dave” for his cost cuts during his Unilever days, came to the same conclusion. Perhaps the most telling example is the fact that Diageo is paying 10x more to run payroll for ~30,000 employees than Tesco did despite having 15x the headcount. So while the Accelerate cost savings program is already running ahead of schedule, with ~50% of the $625M in total savings now expected in FY2026 and ~40% of that already delivered in the first half, expect Lewis to kick that into an even higher gear.

Complementing these near-term priorities, the first domino of the long-rumored executive overhaul has fallen, with John O’Keeffe named as the new North America President and CEO, stepping into the company’s biggest geographical pain point.

Lewis is clearly wasting no time ripping off the band-aid and making significant changes before he’s even found the coffee machine, with the full turnaround plan expected to be laid out at a capital markets day in calendar Q3.

Kitchen sink quarter aside, it’s also worth putting this “disaster” into context. Revenues are down 2.8% organically (fundamentals). The stock is down 60% from its 2022 highs (price). This is a perfect example of the short-term voting machine versus the long-term weighing machine playing out in real time.

Right now, the voting machine has given up on the entire sector, pricing Diageo and its peers as if nobody will ever sip alcohol again. That dislocation has left the highest-quality name in global spirits trading at ~12x forward earnings, the cheapest level going back to the GFC and well below its 20-year average of ~20x. The market continues to mistake a cyclical hangover for permanent impairment, and that’s an opportunity we are more than comfortable leaning into.

The first half under Lewis was never going to be the major inflection point for Diageo. But give a proven turnaround operator a few years to reset the foundation and clean up operations, and what you will find on the other side is the same high-quality compounder Diageo has always been, not the terminal patient the stock price currently suggests. In the meantime, free cash flow continues to recover and remains on track for ~$3B this year (+9% Y/Y), giving management the flexibility and a long runway to get there.

Q2 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Diageo reported 1H net sales of $10.46B (-4% Y/Y), with organic net sales down -2.8%, missing consensus of -2.0%. The organic decline was driven by volume down -0.9% and negative price/mix of -1.9%. Three of five regions grew organically, with Europe +2.7%, Africa +10.9%, and Latin America & Caribbean +4.5%, but that was more than offset by North America at -6.8% (Diageo’s #1 market at 36% of sales) and Asia Pacific at -11.1%. The U.S. was the primary drag, with organic spirits down -9.3% as tequila sales fell -23.1% on continued category softness and down-trading, while Greater China fell -42.3% on government-driven Chinese white spirits headwinds.

2) Organic operating profit declined -2.8%, with margins broadly flat (+1 bps) at 31.1%, as adverse market mix and tariff costs were offset by lower marketing spend driven by Accelerate efficiencies. Looking ahead, management warned of some near-term margin pressure as the focus shifts toward the neglected mass-market portfolio with selective price repositioning on a brand-by-brand basis. This is the same playbook Lewis ran at Tesco: narrow price gaps to win back share, with the volume response and quantum of gross profit dollars more than offsetting the short-term dilution to percentage profitability.

3) The Accelerate cost savings program continues to deliver, with ~50% of the $625M total savings now expected in FY26, up from the ~40% assumption last quarter, and ~40% of that already realized in 1H alone. The majority of savings came from supply chain agility, cost efficiencies, and A&P optimization, with marketing spend down ~10% Y/Y, providing a $178M benefit to operating profit. Management continues to find low-hanging fruit across the organization, with new CEO Dave Lewis highlighting the fact that Diageo is paying 10x more to run payroll for ~30,000 employees than Tesco did despite having 15x the headcount, and that ~65% of customer orders are still being entered manually.

4) Guinness remains the standout across the portfolio, posting +10.9% organic sales growth in 1H and gaining share every single week of the half in North America. The Diageo Beer Company USA division saw net sales +7.3%, driven by double-digit Guinness growth, with the brand now +15% in North America and the fastest-growing beer brand in the region. Despite strong double-digit growth over the last five years and high historical ROIC, the business remains highly geographically constrained, with eight markets representing 85%+ of sales. Management is committed to increasing investment in capacity expansion to unlock new markets and scale Guinness 0.0, noting that current capacity will not be sufficient for the next 2-3 years given the growth trajectory and significant untapped opportunity ahead.

5) The board made the decision to cut the FY26 dividend to a floor of $0.50 per share, compared to $1.03 in FY25, with an interim dividend of $0.20 declared. Going forward, Diageo is moving to a 30-50% payout policy and remains committed to growing shareholder distributions over time. The savings will be used to fund reinvestment in restoring competitiveness in North America and expanding Guinness capacity. Given the need for deleveraging and reinvestment required to fund the turnaround, the cut doesn’t come as a major surprise and is exactly the type of decision we want to see from a new CEO focused on long-term value creation.

6) 1H operating cash flow decreased $202M to $2.14B, while free cash flow came in at $1.53B, down $164M Y/Y due to adverse working capital movements. Management reiterated FY26 FCF guidance of ~$3.0B (+9% Y/Y from $2.75B in FY25), and their commitment to strong cash generation remains unchanged.

7) While only seven weeks into the job, new CEO Dave Lewis laid out three clear near-term priorities during his inaugural earnings call: competitive category strategies with relevant brands, reinvigorating customer relationships, and redesigning Diageo’s operating framework. He called out Diageo’s customer service as “very poor,” noted the company is significantly underrepresented in the mass market, and indicated he would explore price repositioning, new proposition spaces, and RTDs to broaden the portfolio beyond the prior premiumization-only focus. Management expects to provide the board with a full updated strategy proposal in calendar Q2, with a capital markets day planned for mid-Q3.

8) Net debt stood at $21.7B at the end of 1H, down $182M, with leverage flat Y/Y at 3.4x. Management reiterated a commitment to deleveraging and reaching the target range of 2.5x-3.0x by fiscal 2028, but remains more focused on operational improvement than asset disposals to reach the target. Management was clear they are unwilling to sell brands below fair value despite recent market speculation. That said, with a portfolio of 200+ brands, disposals remain possible where appropriate, as evidenced by the recent $2.3B EABL sale and $1.8B sale of the Indian cricket franchise Royal Challengers Bengaluru.

9) 1H capex came in at ~$590M, down ~$40M Y/Y, driven by continued discipline around project-level investments. Management continues to expect full-year capex to reach the low end of the $1.2-1.3B range, down from ~$1.5B in FY25, with spend largely focused on Guinness production and capacity expansion, supply agility, and digital infrastructure, all areas that directly support the turnaround thesis and long-term competitive positioning.

10) Management lowered FY26 guidance, now expecting organic sales of -2% to -3% (prior: flat to slightly down) and operating profit growth of flat to low single digits (prior: low to mid single digits). The revision reflects further weakness in the U.S., which was previously expected to remain in line with FY25 market conditions, the ongoing impact of Chinese white spirits headwinds, and tariff-related pressure.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

Hormel Update

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our thesis on Hormel, an out-of-favor staples compounder and dividend aristocrat with a margin inflection ahead and the secular protein megatrend behind it:

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Hormel delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of organic net sales growth at +2% Y/Y, though reported net sales of $3.03B (+1.3% Y/Y) came in slightly below consensus of $3.07B. Organic growth remains broad based, with Foodservice at +7%, International at +8%, and Retail the weak spot at -2%. Adjusted EPS of $0.34 came in $0.02 ahead of consensus expectations.

2) Adjusted operating income came in at $247M, with an adjusted operating margin of 8.2%, down from 8.5% last year, as commodity and freight capacity headwinds continued to pressure profitability. Beef remained a significant inflationary headwind across the industry, pork trim increased +12% Y/Y, and nut costs stayed elevated, though some relief was seen on pork bellies. In response to the sharp increase in input costs, Hormel implemented two rounds of pricing actions that are now fully in effect as of the start of Q2, with benefits expected to build throughout the year. Management expects commodity costs to ease somewhat in the back half of FY2026, which, alongside Transform and Modernize efficiency and productivity gains, is expected to help drive gross margin expansion for the full year.

3) The Retail segment (~61% of total sales) remained under pressure, posting a -2% decline in organic net sales to $1.85B driven by a -6% drop in volumes and pricing actions not yet fully implemented. Segment profit fell -19% Y/Y to $96.2M, bringing segment profit margins down to just 5.21%. The decline was driven by the strategic exit from non-core private-label snack nut items, higher raw material costs, and unexpected increases in logistics expenses. That said, Hormel’s total dollar consumption was +2% in the latest 13-week Circana data, with priority brands +3%, led by Jennie-O ground turkey (dollar consumption +15%), Planters, Applegate, Hormel Gatherings, and Mexican brands.

4) Foodservice continues to be the engine, posting its 10th consecutive quarter of organic net sales growth at +7% to $998.2M, with segment profit +13% Y/Y to $156.5M and segment profit margins of 15.68%. Growth was broad-based across channels, driven by premium prepared proteins and branded pepperoni, with brands like Austin Blues smoked meats, Hormel Fire Braised, and Hormel Natural Choice all delivering strong volume and net sales growth. Management views the differentiated Foodservice model as a key competitive advantage in what remains a challenging environment with traffic still under pressure.

5) The International segment delivered +8% organic net sales growth to $181.3M, with segment profit +10% Y/Y to $22.9M and segment profit margins of 12.64%. Growth was driven by Hormel’s multinational businesses and branded exports, led once again by SPAM luncheon meat, with profit strength supported by lower SG&A spend and continued growth in China.

6) Hormel’s dividend aristocrat status continues, with the company paying its 390th consecutive quarterly dividend and returning ~$160M to stockholders during the quarter (5.61% current annual yield). The dividend is supported by a strong balance sheet with $868M of cash on hand (+$197M sequentially) against $2.85B in long-term debt.

7) Hormel announced a definitive agreement to sell its whole-bird turkey business to Life-Science Innovations, a strategic move aimed at reducing exposure to volatile, commodity-driven businesses and sharpening the focus on its value-added protein portfolio. The business typically generates $200-275M in annual net sales with high volatility and low margins that are significantly dilutive to Retail segment profitability. The transaction is expected to close by the end of fiscal Q2 with a ~$50M net sales impact in FY2026 and a larger impact reflected in FY2027. Importantly, the sale does not affect value-added turkey products, and Hormel will continue to own and use the Jennie-O brand name.

8) Capital expenditures came in at $69M in the quarter (vs. $72M last year), with the largest projects in China and continued investments in data and technology. Full year FY2026 capex guidance remains at $260–290M, compared to $311M in the prior year.

9) Cash flow from operations came in at $349M, up +$26M from the prior quarter, as Hormel continues to deliver strong and consistent cash generation.

10) Management reiterated full year FY2026 guidance across the board: net sales of $12.2–12.5B, organic net sales growth of +1% to +4%, adjusted operating income of $1.06–1.12B (+4% to +10%), and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.43–1.51 (+4% to +10%). Management expects sequential improvement throughout the year, with Hormel well positioned to deliver against its long term targets of 2–3% annual organic sales growth and 5–7% operating income growth.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

General Market

The CNN “Fear and Greed Index” ticked up to 47 this week from 28 last week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) rose to 69.38% equity exposure this week from last week’s 68.36%.

Our podcast|videocast will be out sometime today. We have a lot of great data to cover this week.  Each week, we have a segment called “Ask Me Anything (AMA)” where we answer questions sent in by our audience. If you have a question for this week’s episode, please send it in at the contact form here.

Congratulations to all of the new clients that came in intra-quarter (Q1) with larger sized accounts, and to those existing clients who upsized their contributions to their accounts.

Our Q1 opening is officially closed. Congratulations to all the new clients who joined during the opening.

Larger accounts $5-10M+ can access bespoke service anytime here.

Not a solicitation.

*Opinion, Not Advice. See Terms

The post “Bought Before the Buzz” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)… appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Tom Hayes – Stock Trader Network Appearance – 4/14/2026 appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

OUTLOOK:

SENTIMENT:

POSITIONING:

MOST CROWDED TRADES:

BIGGEST TAIL RISKS:

BANK OF AMERICA COMMENTARY:

The post April 2026 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary) appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The post Where is money flowing today? appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

S&P Small Cap Advances

The post Indicator of the Day (video): S&P Small Cap Advances appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.