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Industrials New High New Low %

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Nasdaq – Cohen High Low Index

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Volatility index – CBOE Nasdaq 100

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The column under the date 5/25/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (3/26/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are UP. More estimates went UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than came DOWN – The Up:Down ratio was 12:9.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised UP by +1.70% in the past 60 days. 2027 earnings were revised DOWN by -0.58%.

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The column under the date 5/25/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (3/26/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are UP. More estimates went UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than came DOWN – The Up:Down ratio was 26:2. The rest remained the same.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised UP by +9.83% in the past 60 days. 2027 earnings were revised UP by +22.85%.

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PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) buy ALL

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Article referenced in VideoCast above:

“China’s Toll Takers” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

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Article referenced in Podcast above:

“China’s Toll Takers” Stock Market (and Sentiment Results)…

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Utilities New Highs New Lows %

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Rydex Ratio – URSA/NOVA Funds

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Volatility Index – CBOE Dow Jones Industrial Average

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On Thursday, I joined Stuart Varney on Fox Business’ Varney & Co. to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, rotation, China, Alibaba ($BABA), and more. Thanks to Stuart and Maggie Edwards for having me on:

On Monday, I joined Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, rotation, Iran, and more. Thanks to Maria and Cassie Loeloff for having me on:

On Tuesday, I joined Stuart Varney on Fox Business’ Varney & Co. to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, rotation, Estée Lauder ($EL), Crown Castle ($CCI), and a lot more. Thanks to Stuart and Maggie Edwards for having me on:

On Wednesday, I joined Brian Brenberg, Taylor Riggs, Jackie DeAngelis, and Lou Basenese on Fox Business’ The Big Money Show to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, Iran, rotation, AI, and a lot more. Thanks to Brian, Taylor, Jackie, Lou, and Anastasia Cavounis for having me on:

On Wednesday, I joined Diane King Hall on the Schwab Network to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, Iran, positioning, rotation, Estée Lauder ($EL), Crown Castle ($CCI), and more. Thanks to Diane and Kaitlyn Crist for having me on:

On Wednesday, I joined Lance Glinn on NYSE TV to discuss markets, the economy, outlook, the consumer, rotation, positioning, Nvidia ($NVDA), and more. Thanks to Lance and Mel Montanez for having me on:

Bank of America Fund Manager Survey Update

On Tuesday, we put out a summary of the monthly Bank of America “Global Fund Manager Survey.” This month they surveyed 200 institutional managers with ~$517B AUM:

May 2026 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey Results (Summary)

Here were the 5 key points:

1) Net equity allocation posted its largest monthly jump on record in May, with managers piling into equities at a pace not seen outside prior extremes such as Mar ’02, Aug ’09, and Jul ’19. These flows are coming from the same crowd that puked in the hole on the way down, now forced to chase back in at much higher prices and extend the rally as they go. With those flows now starting to slow and positioning already heavily extended, the obvious question becomes who is left to buy from here.

2) Relative allocation to cyclicals versus defensives (tech and industrials versus healthcare and staples) has climbed to its most stretched level since January 2018. We continue to view these “boring” sectors of the market as attractive opportunities to add exposure, especially in the context of a volatile midterm election year, where healthcare has outperformed 80% of the time and by an average of ~6 percentage points going back to 1970.

3) FMS equity allocation jumped from a net 13% overweight to a net 50% overweight in May, the highest since January 2022 and a record single-month move of +37 percentage points. While we remain constructive on a long-term basis, this is exactly the kind of stretched positioning and chasing that suggests the market is due for a near-term breather, and as noted on last week’s podcast, we are now positioned accordingly in what we view as one of the most crowded trades in the market.

4) Net profit expectations posted the sixth-largest monthly jump on record in May, with a net 17% of managers now expecting global profits to improve, flipping from a net 14% expecting deterioration just last month. This supports our constructive view on a long-term basis, with the earnings engine still firing on all cylinders, even as we acknowledge near-term froth.

5) FMS average cash levels dropped from 4.3% to 3.9% in May, the biggest monthly decline since February 2024 and enough to trigger the BofA “Sell” signal. Across the 24 sell signals since 2011, the median four-week decline for global stocks is roughly -1% (biggest loss -29%, biggest gain 4%).

Alibaba Update

For newer readers, here’s a quick overview of the key drivers behind our thesis on Alibaba, the toll taker of the Chinese consumer recovery and the cheapest way to play AI globally:

At face value, Alibaba’s fourth quarter looked pretty ugly. If you only read the headlines, you would think the wheels were coming off the business. That simply isn’t the case. While some of the headline figures made for easy material for commentators to run with, a closer look beneath the surface revealed a very different story: an accelerating core e-commerce business, a management team deliberately leaning into investment mode, and an increasingly dominant Cloud/AI segment beginning to show tangible returns.

Starting with the top line, the reported revenue figure appeared disappointing at $35.3B, up just 3% Y/Y. However, backing out the disposed of non-core brick-and-mortar businesses of Intime and Sun Art, revenue grew 11% on a like-for-like basis, accelerating from 9% in Q3. In other words, the underlying business is not slowing down. It is speeding up.

The biggest headline grabber was adjusted EBITA, which fell 84% to just $740M and drove Alibaba’s first operating loss since the Covid lows of 2021. Again, context matters. This was not the result of a deteriorating core business, but rather an intentional decision by management to aggressively invest in quick commerce, an on/off switch fully within management’s control and something they have been extremely transparent about. Excluding these investments, profits at the core e-commerce segment were effectively stable year over year.

Free cash flow also swung to a $2.5B outflow in the quarter, with the full year coming in at -$6.8B compared to an inflow of $10.7B the prior year. While cash outflows are never something to celebrate, management has been very clear about its priorities: investing aggressively into Cloud/AI to capitalize on what they believe is a generational opportunity. Management now expects to exceed the previously announced ~$56B capex target over the next three years. Most importantly, they are doing so with what they believe is an “extremely clear” line of sight toward attractive returns on investment over the next three to five years.

We’ve received several questions lately surrounding the capital intensity of Alibaba and concerns around a capex-heavy investment cycle, especially given our skepticism toward the U.S. hyperscalers’ asset-heavy AI arms race. We believe there are three key reasons why Alibaba’s investment cycle should be viewed differently.

First, it comes down to how the buildout is being funded. Unlike some of the U.S. hyperscalers that are increasingly tapping debt markets and stretching balance sheets to finance AI ambitions, Alibaba is investing from a position of financial strength. The company sits on a $75.5B pile of cash and investments, with a net cash position of ~$38B, which grows to more than $59B when excluding debt maturities beyond five years. Meaning, Alibaba could theoretically fund the entire buildout from existing cash on hand if management chose to do so. There is no solvency concern here, nor is the balance sheet remotely compromised by the current investment cycle.

Second, and equally important, Alibaba is not a pure-play AI company dependent on external funding and speculative future monetization. It is backstopped by one of the largest e-commerce ecosystems in the world. The core China e-commerce business holds ~40% market share, delivered 8% like-for-like revenue growth in Q4, and continues to generate enormous amounts of durable, predictable cash flow. That creates a safety net very few AI companies possess, with the core business effectively subsidizing the cloud and AI buildout.

Meanwhile, the company’s international commerce (AIDC) segment is knocking on the door of profitability, while quick commerce losses continue to narrow and remain on track for positive unit economics by the end of FY27. As these businesses mature, Alibaba’s normalized cash flow profile will only become more attractive from here.

Third, and this is something we cannot stress enough: having a better reinvestment opportunity than buying back cheap shares is a GOOD thing, not a BAD thing.

Don’t get us wrong. We love buybacks when stocks are materially undervalued and the price is dislocated. When Alibaba traded in the $60s and China was written off as “uninvestable,” management repurchased stock hand over fist (as did we), retiring ~17% of shares outstanding in just over three years. The stock has since more than DOUBLED, with those buybacks creating tremendous value for shareholders.

Today, however, a dollar deployed into cloud infrastructure, AI models, and proprietary chips likely generates a far higher long-term return than a dollar spent repurchasing shares at more than double the prior price. This is the rare case of a management team that bought low and is now reinvesting high, the exact opposite of the typical value-destructive playbook where buybacks peak near the top and management is hiding under their desks when stocks are actually cheap.

Put all three factors together and not only does Alibaba have the financial capacity to pursue this opportunity, it also possesses what we believe is a structural advantage in doing so.

What matters even more is what’s waiting on the other side of this investment cycle: a direct line of sight toward a leading full-stack Cloud/AI franchise, with management targeting the combined Cloud and AI business to reach $100B in annual revenue over the next five years, implying a CAGR north of 40%.

Importantly, we are already beginning to see real returns from these investments, something very few ‘AI’ companies can genuinely claim today.

AI-related product revenue reached $1.3B this quarter (~$5.3B annualized), marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth. Early on, investors could poke holes in the “triple-digit growth” narrative as simply the result of scaling off a small base. That argument no longer holds water, with AI-related revenue now accounting for ~30% of total cloud revenue and on track to exceed 50% within the next year.

This AI strength, combined with demand across the traditional cloud business that still far outstrips supply, drove external cloud revenue growth to 40%, up from 35% in the prior quarter and marking the eighth consecutive quarter of acceleration.

While management was clear that the near-term focus for the Cloud segment remains squarely on growth and market share gains, the conversation eventually shifts toward profitability, where the margin runway remains massive. Alibaba Cloud currently generates segment margins of 9.1%, compared to operating margins of 37.7% at AWS and 32.9% at Google Cloud.

Several structural tailwinds should support materially higher margins going forward, including a mix shift toward higher-margin MaaS offerings, pricing power driven by global compute shortages that have pushed server replacement costs to more than 2x levels from two years ago, and growing adoption of Alibaba’s in-house T-Head chips, which materially lower the overall cost base. Management expects these factors to begin driving meaningful margin expansion over the next one to two quarters, with a very long runway beyond that. 

At the same time, T-Head has now scaled into mass production and is increasingly seen as a credible domestic alternative to leading chip providers. In a compute-constrained environment, Alibaba’s in-house silicon provides a major structural advantage for internal operations while also creating a high-margin business serving external customers.

Put it all together, and what emerges is a full-stack AI platform spanning cloud infrastructure (~38% market share), leading open-source AI models (Qwen is the world’s largest open-source model family), and advanced proprietary chips.

Not to mention what may be the market’s most overlooked piece of the story: Alibaba is effectively a China AI ETF hidden inside a single stock. 

As China’s leading cloud provider, Alibaba has leveraged compute-for-equity deals across the country’s AI ecosystem, resulting in stakes across some of China’s most promising AI startups like Moonshot, MiniMax, Zhipu, and others that remain undisclosed until the next funding headline appears. These investments sit on the balance sheet with little to no value assigned to them in the stock price. Every time another multi-million or billion-dollar stake surfaces, the market is reminded just how massive this hidden optionality really is. 

At less than 15x forward earnings, investors are getting the cheapest large-scale AI platform globally, the #1 cloud provider in China, a rapidly scaling chip business, the #1 Chinese e-commerce platform, an international commerce business just reaching profitability, and countless other businesses and equity stakes that the market continues to largely ignore.

That’s exactly the type of company we want to own in size, which is why we were smiling so wide we could eat a banana sideways when we were able to put new money to work as the stock pulled back into the low $120s. 

So while most of the market remains fixated on U.S. hyperscalers and the semiconductor trade, we think investors continue to overlook one of the most attractive ways to gain exposure to the theme globally. Looking at the charts below, despite the stock having already more than doubled from the lows where we were buying until our fingers bled, we still believe this story remains in the very early innings.

Q4 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Revenue came in at $35.28B (+3% Y/Y reported, +11% ex-disposed businesses Sun Art and Intime on a like-for-like basis), missing consensus by ~$455M, while the +11% underlying growth marked an acceleration from the +9% rate last quarter.

2) Adjusted EBITA fell 84% Y/Y to $740M, with margins compressing to ~2% from ~14% in the prior year period, driven by a step-up in strategic investment in quick commerce and Qwen app user acquisition, which pushed sales and marketing expense to 21.8% of revenue from 15.0%. G&A moved the other way, falling to 3.7% of revenue from 4.0% on continued cost discipline. Management expects adjusted EBITA to remain volatile in the near term as the investment cycle runs its course, with margins secondary to growth and market share gains for now.

3) Cloud revenue grew 38% Y/Y to $6.04B, with external customer revenue accelerating to +40% from +35% last quarter, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of acceleration. Segment adjusted EBITA rose 57% Y/Y to $550M, with margins steady at 9.1%. Management guided to meaningful gross margin improvement over the next one to two quarters, driven by a mix shift toward structurally higher-margin MaaS, pricing power from new server replacement costs running >100% above two-year-ago levels, and the T-Head proprietary chip ramp. External growth is expected to continue accelerating beyond the current 40% rate, with the long-term target of $100B+ in annual external Cloud and AI revenue within five years unchanged.

4) AI-related product revenue reached $1.30B, marking its eleventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth and now accounting for 30% of Cloud external revenue, up from >20% last quarter. Management expects AI revenue to exceed 50% of external Cloud revenue within a year and become the segment’s primary growth engine going forward. MaaS ARR on the Model Studio platform has crossed $1.2B, with management guiding to ~$1.5B by the June quarter and ~$4.4B by year-end, equivalent to close to $100M per month in token and agentic AI revenue. Model Studio’s customer base has grown eight-fold Y/Y, with token consumption up more than 10x since November. On the consumer side, the Qwen app was fully integrated with Taobao and Tmall on May 7, with the Taobao app launching the Qwen Shopping Assistant.

5) T-Head, Alibaba’s proprietary chip subsidiary, has reached scaled mass production, with more than 60% of compute capacity now serving external customers across internet, financial services, and autonomous driving verticals. Over 100,000 Zhenwu PPUs have been deployed on Alibaba Cloud’s public cloud platform, with 30+ leading automakers and autonomous driving companies using the chips for intelligent driving R&D. As the only AI cloud provider in China delivering self-developed chips at scale, T-Head gives Alibaba a structural advantage in a compute-scarce environment and positions it to capture share against the 60–80% gross margins that leading overseas AI chip vendors currently command.

6) Quick commerce revenue grew 57% Y/Y to $2.90B, with unit economics and average order value improving significantly quarter-over-quarter, driven by a better mix toward higher-value categories. Overall order volume ran at 2.7x last year’s level, with non-food orders at 3x, while the business maintained market share through the quarter. Management remains confident that unit economics will turn positive by the end of FY27. Quick commerce also continued to drive synergies with traditional e-commerce, supporting customer acquisition, engagement, and transaction frequency, while contributing incremental volume to Freshippo and Tmall Supermarket.

7) China e-commerce revenue came in at $17.72B (+6% Y/Y), with CMR growing +1% Y/Y as reported but +8% on a like-for-like basis, excluding the contra revenue impact from the new merchant business development program. The +8% underlying growth marks a strong acceleration from the +1% like-for-like rate last quarter. Direct sales, logistics, and other revenue declined 6% Y/Y on lower revenue from certain direct sales businesses. Segment adjusted EBITA was $3.48B (-40% Y/Y) due to continued quick commerce investment; excluding quick commerce losses, e-commerce EBITA was stable Y/Y. 88VIP members, Alibaba’s highest-spending cohort and closest equivalent to Amazon Prime, grew double digits Y/Y to >62 million.

8) Alibaba International (AIDC) revenue grew 6% Y/Y to $5.14B, with international retail up 5% to $4.19B and wholesale up 9% to $944M. Adjusted EBITA loss narrowed to $20M from a $518M loss a year ago, approaching break-even, driven by logistics optimization, operating efficiency gains, and substantially improved unit economics in the AliExpress Choice business.

9) Capex was $3.9B in the quarter and $18.3B for the full year, funding the Cloud and AI buildout. Management now expects to exceed its prior ~$56B three-year AI investment commitment, citing compute infrastructure demand it sees reaching ~10x 2022 levels by 2033. Management characterized the spend as demand-driven rather than speculative, noting there is not a single idle unit of capacity in its system, and described its line of sight to ROI over the next three to five years as extremely clear.

10) Free cash flow was an outflow of $2.51B in the quarter, versus an inflow of $543M last year, bringing full-year FY26 FCF to an outflow of $6.76B compared with an inflow of $10.71B in FY25. The decline was driven by heavy reinvestment into quick commerce, Qwen app user acquisition, and Cloud infrastructure capex. Cash and liquid investments totaled $75.50B, resulting in a net cash position of ~$38B, or ~$59B excluding debt maturities beyond five years. Management expects the cash flow profile to improve as quick commerce losses narrow and AIDC moves toward profitability, while Taobao and Tmall continue to generate stable underlying operating cash flow.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

Estée Lauder Update

For newer readers, here’s a quick overview of the key drivers behind our thesis on Estée Lauder, a leader in global prestige beauty that is now inflecting back to growth following a cyclical slowdown, with meaningful operating leverage still to come:

Q3 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) Estée Lauder reported Q3 net sales of $3.71B (+4.6% reported, +1.7% organic), slightly ahead of consensus at $3.69B and landing ~10 bps above the Street on organic growth. Three of four regions grew organically, led by high-single-digit growth in Mainland China and double-digit growth across priority emerging markets. Fragrance led the quarter at +10% organic on luxury strength, while Skin Care, Makeup, and Hair Care were each roughly flat. YTD organic growth now stands at +3%, keeping EL on track for its first year of positive organic growth in four years (FY25 -8%, FY24 -1.7%, FY23 -6%). Adjusted EPS of $0.91 (+40% Y/Y) beat consensus of $0.65 by 40%.

2) Adjusted gross margin expanded 140 bps Y/Y to 76.4% from 75.0%, lifting YTD adjusted gross margin to 75.5% from 74.7% a year ago. The expansion was driven by net benefits from the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, including zero-waste initiatives that drove another reduction in excess and obsolescence, which together helped offset incremental tariff and inflation headwinds. For the full year, management continues to expect ~$100M of tariff-related headwinds to FY26 profitability, with mitigation actions, including leveraging available trade programs and further optimizing the regional manufacturing footprint to bring production closer to the consumer, expected to offset more than half of the impact.

3) Adjusted operating income jumped 38% to $557M, lifting adjusted operating margin to 15.0% (vs. consensus ~11%) from 11.4% a year ago and bringing YTD adjusted operating margin to 12.4% from 9.2%. PRGP net benefits and tighter investment allocation drove a 4% reduction in non-consumer-facing expenses, even with the normalization of employee incentive costs, which in turn funded a 9% increase in high-ROI consumer-facing investment (5% ex-FX), marking the fifth consecutive quarter of stepped-up brand spending.

4) Management continues to execute against the PRGP ahead of expectations and materially expanded the program during the quarter. The net position reduction target was raised to 9,000–10,000 from the prior 5,800–7,000, with more than 70% of the increase tied to point-of-sale demonstration roles at unproductive department store and freestanding doors, as EL pivots toward high-growth channels. Annual gross savings were raised to $1.0–$1.2B from $0.8–$1.0B, while restructuring charges are now expected at $1.5–$1.7B from $1.2–$1.6B. Cumulative charges reached $1.1B through March, with approvals on track for completion by the end of FY26 and the vast majority of full run-rate benefits still expected in FY27.

5) Online organic sales grew double digits in the quarter and ~10% YTD, with EL believing it outperformed prestige beauty in the channel. Amazon now spans 12 brands across 10 markets, and TikTok Shop spans 12 brands across 7 markets, with online now representing ~one-third of the global business and an even higher mix in the U.S. (~40%). Beyond digital, EL continued expanding across other high-growth channels, with the headline move being M·A·C’s much-anticipated entry into U.S. Sephora in March, where the brand was the #1 makeup brand at launched doors within its first month and gained ~10 points of share in the quarter.

6) Mainland China sales rose 6% organic and 11% reported to $774M (~21% of total net sales), with EL estimating it outperformed prestige beauty for the third consecutive quarter amid improving consumer confidence. Six brands grew double digits, including Estée Lauder, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Clinique, M·A·C, and Bobbi Brown Cosmetics. Travel Retail also returned to low-single-digit growth, a sequential improvement, with Hainan retail sales up over 30% in the quarter, as Lunar New Year activation drove a strong performance well ahead of the broader channel.

7) Americas net sales were $1.08B (~29% of total net sales), up 1% reported and flat organically. North America remained the weak spot, with sales down low single digits on continued brick-and-mortar pressure, including retailer bankruptcies and shop-in-shop closures that cost up to 2 points of growth in the quarter. That said, management pointed to several green shoots across the business, with U.S. retail sales growing mid-single digits as EL gained volume share in total prestige beauty across every category, picked up value share via The Ordinary in skin care and five makeup brands, and narrowed its value share loss to just 6 bps. Encouragingly, U.S. online sales grew high single digits, a key factor behind management’s confidence that North America can move from a decade of decline through the current stabilization and return to growth in FY27.

8) YTD free cash flow reached $891M versus $276M a year ago, a more-than-3x improvement driven by higher earnings and continued capital discipline. Operating cash flow rose to $1.2B from $0.7B, while capex fell 23% Y/Y to $306M as management continues to prioritize higher-ROI, consumer-facing investment over capacity expansion. Full-year capex is guided to ~4% of sales, with operating cash flow expected at $1.4–$1.5B.

9) EL continues to actively manage and make targeted investments across its portfolio of 20+ brands, agreeing to acquire the remaining interest in Forest Essentials, the #1 prestige skincare brand in India, with the deal expected to close in the second half of the calendar year, while also making a minority investment in 111Skin during the quarter, a luxury brand positioned in the growing pre- and post-procedure category. The key question mark remains the potential Puig merger, on which management declined to comment, saying it would not provide further information ahead of any official announcement.

10) EL raised FY26 guidance across the board: organic growth narrowed to ~3% (high end of the prior 1–3% range), adjusted operating margin was lifted to 10.7–11.0% from a prior midpoint of 10% and now sits well above FY25’s 8%, while adjusted EPS was raised to $2.35–$2.45 (+56–62% Y/Y) versus consensus of ~$2.22 and prior guidance of $2.05–$2.25. More importantly, management provided its first preliminary FY27 view: organic growth accelerating to +3–5% (versus analyst consensus of ~3.7%), with prestige beauty share gains at the mid-to-high end, and adjusted operating margin of 12.5–13.0%. At the top end, FY27 would mark 500 bps of margin expansion since the launch of Beauty Reimagined, with management flagging significant runway beyond that, noting OpEx at ~62% still leaves room as the P&L is rebuilt for leverage.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

General Market

The CNN “Fear and Greed Index” ticked down to 61 this week from 64 last week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) fell to 77.34% equity exposure this week from last week’s 96.67%.

Our podcast|videocast will be out sometime today. We have a lot of great data to cover this week.  Each week, we have a segment called “Ask Me Anything (AMA)” where we answer questions sent in by our audience. If you have a question for this week’s episode, please send it in at the contact form here.

Larger accounts $5-10M+ can access bespoke service anytime here.

Not a solicitation.

*Opinion, Not Advice. See Terms

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Health Care New High New Low %

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NYSE New 52 Week Highs

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OUTLOOK:

SENTIMENT:

POSITIONING:

MOST CROWDED TRADES:

BIGGEST TAIL RISKS:

BANK OF AMERICA COMMENTARY:

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The column under the date 5/18/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (3/19/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates have come UP. More estimates came UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than went DOWN – The Up:Down ratio was 19:11.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised UP by +0.55% in the past 60 days. 2027 estimates were revised UP by +0.04%.

The post Financials (top 30 weights) Earnings Estimates/Revisions appeared first on Hedge Fund Tips.

The column under the date 5/18/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (3/19/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates have come UP. More estimates came UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than went DOWN. – The Up:Down ratio was 20:9. The rest remained the same.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised DOWN by -1.45% in the past 60 days. 2027 estimates were revised UP by +1.17%.

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AAII Bullish Percent

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DJIA High-Low Index

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For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our PayPal thesis, an overlooked global payments leader with a cash machine core business funding aggressive buybacks and a long list of growth catalysts hiding in plain sight:

The market wanted a quick breakup trade. Enrique Lores delivered a multi-year playbook instead.

There was little not to like in PayPal’s first quarter under new CEO Enrique Lores, with strong headline numbers across the board. Revenue of $8.35B beat consensus by ~$340M. Adjusted EPS of $1.34 beat by $0.07. Total payment volume came in at $464B (+11% reported, +8% FXN), nearly $20B ahead of consensus and accelerating from +6% last quarter.

TM$ grew 3% to $3.81B, beating consensus by ~$140M. Venmo notched its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. PSP volume accelerated to +11%, with Braintree back in the mid-teens and, more importantly, now contributing to profitable TM$ growth following the “fire the unprofitable customers” reset executed under Alex Chriss.

Even branded checkout, which has been the soft spot of the story and the key driver of fears over competition and cracks in the moat, showed a ~100 bps sequential acceleration and came in ahead of expectations.

Most importantly, the cash machine was on full display. Adjusted free cash flow grew 25% Y/Y to $1.7B, bringing the TTM total to ~$6.8B. PayPal took that cash and went to work, hoovering up another $1.5B of stock during the quarter (~34M shares), making our slice of the pie that much bigger without putting up a dime.

And yet, despite strong fundamentals, the stock sold off.

We attribute the reaction to a simple reality: in the short term, the market is a voting machine driven by emotion. In the long term, it’s a weighing machine driven by fundamentals. Heading into earnings, it was all voting machine.

Weeks of rumors about a potential Venmo spinoff or other non-core asset sales led to the Johnny-come-latelies positioning for a quick buck from a breakup trade: Lores comes in, slices the company into pieces, and unlocks shortsighted value overnight.

When Lores instead laid out a multi-year transformation plan centered around keeping PayPal, Venmo, and Braintree together under a unified strategy, the quick-money crowd ran for the exits.

In Lores’s own words: “At this point, I believe that the best approach is to invest in our 3 core businesses, PayPal, Venmo and Braintree, to drive profitable growth, because in each of them, we see the opportunity of making it happen… What is important is that we believe that there are significant synergies across the 3 businesses that make them stronger together.”

We agree.

Lores spent the past five years on PayPal’s board, including the last eighteen months as Chairman, before stepping into the CEO role on March 1. He knows what’s working and what isn’t. He understands the strengths, the weaknesses, and the organizational bottlenecks better than anyone. If there’s one fair critique, it’s that after half a decade inside the boardroom, investors likely wanted more detail around the roadmap and timing of execution.

But that frustration says more about the market’s time horizon than it does about the underlying business, and we are more than happy to benefit from the impatience.

What Lores did provide was a high-level strategic framework going forward, and it reads like a page straight out of his HP playbook: simplify the organization, remove layers, aggressively cut costs, modernize infrastructure, and lean heavily into AI-driven productivity gains.

To do that, PayPal is reorganizing into three lines of business, each with a single leader and clear accountability, ending the multi-dimensional matrix-style structure that Lores himself admitted had “slowed decision-making and weakened execution.”

The centerpiece of the plan is a newly announced cost program: $1.5B in gross run-rate savings over the next two to three years through structural simplification and AI-enabled automation. With FY25 non-transaction operating expenses sitting at $9.1B, we suspect there’s plenty of low-hanging fruit. Reports also point to a ~20% workforce reduction, or ~4,760 of the 23,800 employees PayPal reported at year-end 2025, in lockstep with what we’ve seen across other fintech players and the broader tech sector.

Importantly, this isn’t a slash-and-burn exercise designed to manufacture short-term earnings growth. You cannot cut your way to durable growth. The savings are expected to be reinvested into technology modernization, branded checkout, Venmo, and consumer financial services, all areas where PayPal still possesses massive competitive advantages but has under-executed operationally in recent years.

As long-term shareholders, that is exactly what we want to see.

The other half of the Lores playbook may prove even more powerful over time: aggressive share repurchases.

During his six years running HP, Lores retired 37.5% of the company’s shares outstanding while the stock climbed from trough levels of ~$10 to a peak of ~$37.

We expect a similar outcome at PayPal.

Some quick back-of-the-envelope math puts the power of PayPal’s aggressive buyback program into perspective. ~$40B market cap. ~$6B+ in annualized free cash flow. ~$6B per year earmarked for share repurchases. This means PayPal can retire ~15% of the float annually, entirely self-funded, while still maintaining a net cash position approaching $2B.

At that rate, the entire current share count gets retired in 6-7 years. That’s before any multiple expansion off today’s left-for-dead 8x earnings or any acceleration in the underlying business.

With the share count already down 25% over the past ~four years, the “magic” of buybacks only gets more powerful from here.

You would be hard-pressed to find another business of this quality trading at a ~15% free cash flow yield. Let alone a global payments leader powering the #1 and #2 most popular mobile payment apps in the U.S., processing every Uber ride and Ticketmaster order, and operating the world’s largest two-sided payment network with 439M active accounts. All priced as though the lights are going out.

So while fast money rotates toward the next narrative-driven, flavor-of-the-day trade, we will continue doing what we have always done when other high-quality companies find themselves in dislocation: zoom out, burden ourselves with the facts, and hoover up even more cheap shares alongside the company.

At the end of the day, Enrique Lores was hired to execute a multi-year turnaround, not manage the stock for a quarter. One print in, the framework is clear, the cash machine is humming, and the Lores era is just getting started.

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) PayPal reported Q1 revenue of $8.35B (+7% Y/Y, +5% FXN), beating consensus of $8.05B by ~$340M, with U.S. revenue growing 9% to $4.88B and international revenue up 4% reported (flat FXN) to $3.47B. Transaction revenue grew 7% to $7.5B, while other value-added services rose 10% to $852M, driven by strength in consumer and merchant credit, partially offset by lower interest rates. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.34 (+1% Y/Y), beating consensus of $1.27 by $0.07.

2) Venmo delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with TPV accelerating to +14% Y/Y FXN from +13% last quarter, reaching a new high of $86.2B and coming in ahead of Street expectations of +12%. Pay with Venmo grew 34% and continues to take share from other payment methods. Management called Venmo a key component of the go-forward growth plan, with a focus on ARPU expansion through deeper attachment of financial services, including debit, credit, savings, and investing.

3) The PSP segment delivered another quarter of accelerating growth, with TPV increasing +11% to $208.8B versus +8% last quarter. Enterprise Payments (Braintree) volume growth also accelerated into the mid-teens, driven by a combination of profitable front-book growth, strong retention, and continued expansion with existing merchants. Following the segment’s multi-quarter price-to-value reset, the business is now contributing meaningfully to TM$ growth. Looking ahead, management remains focused on increasing attachment rates of value-added services across the segment, which is expected to support improved yield and monetization as the year progresses.

4) Branded checkout TPV accelerated 100 bps to $134.5B (+2% FXN) from +1% last quarter, beating expectations and showing modest sequential improvement. Meanwhile, branded experiences TPV (online checkout, PayPal/Venmo debit, tap-to-pay) accelerated to $143.8B (+5% FXN) from +4% last quarter, supported by BNPL growth of 23%, Pay with Venmo growth of 34%, and debit card and tap-to-pay spend growing 60% Y/Y. ~45% of non-vaulted customers are now experiencing the simplified checkout, with the new checkout experience, combined with financial services and BNPL, continuing to drive significant acceleration in growth. Quarter-to-date, branded checkout TPV growth has decelerated to ~1%, driven by a slowdown in travel and more muted European growth, particularly in the U.K. and Germany, with full-year branded checkout TPV currently tracking at the low end of the slightly positive to LSD guidance range.

5) Transactions per active account on a TTM basis declined 1% to 58.7, driven by price-to-value actions that affected Enterprise Payments transactions in prior quarters. Backing out PSP, TPA increased 6% to 37.2, driven by customer engagement growth in branded experiences and Venmo. Total active accounts increased 1% Y/Y to 439M (down 0.04% sequentially), while monthly active accounts grew 1% to 225M, with active account growth largely driven by Venmo.

6) PayPal generated $1.7B in adjusted free cash flow (+25% Y/Y), bringing TTM adjusted FCF to ~$6.8B. Management reiterated guidance of at least $6B of adjusted FCF for FY26, implying a ~15% FCF yield at current prices. Management repurchased $1.5B (~34M shares) in Q1, bringing TTM buybacks to $6B (~100M shares) and reducing weighted average diluted shares by 8% Y/Y. PayPal reiterated expectations of ~$6B in buybacks for the full year, which, combined with a dividend yield of ~1.2%, brings total shareholder yield to >16%. Plenty of dry powder remains, with cash, equivalents, and investments totaling $13.5B against $11.6B of debt as of quarter-end.

7) Transaction margin dollars grew 3% Y/Y to $3.81B, beating consensus of $3.67B by ~$140M, with TM ex-interest on customer balances also up 3% to $3.54B. Growth was broad-based, led by credit performance, Venmo monetization, PSP profitability, and loss improvement across multiple products, more than offsetting the ~3 pt headwind from branded checkout investments that will continue through 2026. Transaction margin of 45.6% came in line with consensus but contracted 208 bps Y/Y from 47.7%, reflecting the investment ramp and mix shift. Transaction loss rate improved 1 bp Y/Y to 0.06%, while transaction expense increased 1 bp to 0.90% on Enterprise mix.

8) Total payment volume came in at $464.0B (+11% reported and +8% FXN), beating consensus of $446.8B and accelerating from last quarter’s +6% growth. Growth was led by Venmo at +14% to $86.2B, followed by PSP at +11% to $208.8B, P2P & other consumer at +10% to $120.6B, branded experiences at +5% to $143.8B, and branded checkout at +2% to $134.5B. By region, U.S. TPV grew 11% to $300.1B, while international TPV grew 2% FXN to $163.8B.

9) Management announced a new $1.5B+ gross run-rate cost savings program to be executed over the next two to three years, rolled out in two phases: first, structural realignment by removing duplication and layers from the organization, and second, aggressive AI and automation deployment across operations, with the biggest near-term opportunities in technology development and customer support. With FY25 non-transaction operating expenses sitting at $9.1B, there is likely plenty of low-hanging fruit, and while not officially confirmed, reports point to a ~20% workforce reduction, or ~4,760 positions based on the 23,800 employees PayPal reported at year-end 2025. Savings will be reinvested into technology modernization, branded checkout, Venmo, and consumer financial services, with more detail on the cadence and reinvestment framework expected in the coming months, and with segment-level reporting expected sometime next year.

10) Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance, calling for adjusted EPS in the low-single-digit decline to slightly positive range (vs. FY25 EPS of $5.31), with TM$ expected to slightly decline or remain roughly flat. 2Q is expected to be the toughest comp of the year, with guidance for adjusted EPS to decline high single digits (~9%, ~$1.27 vs. Street expectations of $1.34) and TM to decline ~3% (vs. Street -1%), reflecting the non-recurrence of a 1.5 pt prior-year benefit from a key payment partner renewal, ramping growth investments, and a lower prior-year tax rate.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

Dentsply Sirona Update

For newer readers, here’s a brief overview of the key drivers behind our Dentsply Sirona thesis, a global dental leader with a proven new CEO, a clear self-help playbook, and a cyclical inflection underway as the industry turns the corner:

Q1 Earnings Breakdown

10 Key Points

1) XRAY posted Q1 revenue of $880M (+0.1% reported, -6.7% constant currency), beating consensus of ~$842M, with constant currency sales down 4.5% after adjusting for the (2.2%) Byte headwind and a one-time institutional treatment center installation in Q1 2025 that did not repeat. At the segment level, Wellspect Healthcare led the way again (+15.0% reported, +3.4% constant currency), followed by CTS (+4.4% reported, -2.9% constant currency), while EDS (-0.9% reported, -7.2% constant currency) and OIS (-8.1% reported, -13.5% constant currency) remained the key drags. Adjusted EPS of $0.27 (-39% Y/Y) was in line with consensus.

2) Adjusted gross margin came in at 50.7%, down 560 bps Y/Y from 56.3%, pressured by lower volumes, negative segment mix (lighter EDS, the highest-margin segment), tariff impacts, and higher-cost inventory absorption rolling through from Q4 2025. Management expects gross margin to recover at least ~300 bps in Q2/Q3 as tariffs normalize following the recent SCOTUS decision and as European destocking dynamics work through.

3) Adjusted EBITDA of $129M (-22.8% Y/Y from $168M) came in roughly in line with consensus of $128.6M, with adjusted EBITDA margin contracting 430 bps Y/Y to 14.7% from 19.0%, driven by lower volumes and tariff impacts on gross profit. Encouragingly, OpEx on a constant currency basis was down ~$20M Y/Y, reflecting early benefits from the Return-to-Growth program, OpEx restructuring, and overall cost control.

4) XRAY made further progress rebuilding its U.S. commercial footprint, signing its fourth new distributor agreement of the year with Atlanta Dental Supply (effective August 1) to expand CTS portfolio access. Benco Dental also installed its first CEREC system under the new agreement ahead of schedule, an early sign that the rebuilt dealer network is beginning to convert agreements into real product flow. Combined with prior agreements (Patterson, Burkhart, and A-dec), management views the expanded footprint as a key lever for the U.S. turnaround, with commercial improvements expected in the back half as the bulk of dealer inventory build under the new drop-ship model rolls through Q2-Q4.

5) R&D spending stepped up to $44M in Q1 (5.0% of sales vs. 4.1% in Q1 2025) to support the Return-to-Growth plan, with multiple FDA and CE mark clearances during the quarter. The headline launch was Smart View-Detect, the world’s first FDA-cleared and CE-marked AI-enabled diagnostic aid. Other notable launches included the Reciproc Minima file system and X-Smart Go cordless endo motor in endodontics, FDA clearance of a first-of-its-kind dental-dedicated MRI, and Wellspect’s Surity male and female external catheters. While management did not offer specific product contribution details, they indicated that meaningful new product contribution will ramp into 2027 and continue into 2028.

6) The restructuring program remains on track to deliver ~$120M in annual savings, with benefits building through 2026 and weighted toward the back half. Key levers include unlocking P&L efficiencies through indirect cost optimization, implementing lean principles across the organization, simplifying the operating model, and rationalizing legal entities and IT systems to reduce complexity. Early results are encouraging, with constant currency OpEx down ~$20M Y/Y in Q1. Savings are being reinvested into growth areas such as R&D, clinical education, and commercial capabilities, keeping the program self-funding as the U.S. turnaround takes shape.

7) Operating cash flow improved meaningfully to $40M in Q1 versus $7M in the prior-year period, driven by favorable accounts receivable collections. Free cash flow was a use of ($12M), flat Y/Y, weighed down by stepped-up capital expenditures of $52M versus $19M last year. Improving FCF remains a top priority for management, with working capital improvement and a ~20% inventory reduction serving as the main levers over the balance of the year.

8) XRAY ended the quarter with $190M of cash and equivalents against ~$2.2B of total debt, bringing net debt-to-EBITDA to ~3.3x. The company retired $79M of debt during the quarter, an early proof point of the new capital allocation strategy at work following last quarter’s dividend elimination (~$128M in annual savings freed up). Management remains committed to maintaining investment-grade credit metrics, with debt reduction the top near-term priority before pivoting to opportunistic buybacks later this year.

9) On capital allocation, CEO Dan Scavilla reiterated his appetite for opportunistic share repurchases in the second half of the year, noting, “at this price, I’m anxious to do it because I think it’s going to be a great one to remove.” Management is prioritizing debt paydown first to preserve investment-grade credit metrics, with the goal of moving into buybacks in 2H 2026 and continuing thereafter.

10) Despite the strong Q1 revenue beat, management reiterated FY26 guidance for net sales of $3.5B-$3.6B (vs. consensus $3.58B), operational growth of -3% to -1%, and adjusted EPS of $1.40-$1.50 (vs. consensus $1.43). Management framed the decision as a matter of style, wanting at least two quarters before adjusting the guide, and noting, “I’d rather be appropriately conservative than anything else right now.” With restructuring savings building through the year and U.S. turnaround initiatives gaining traction in 2H 2026 and into 2027, the setup likely leaves a low bar for upside surprises. Management also plans to host an Investor Day toward the end of this year or early 2027 to lay out the strategic plan and the path to returning the business to at or above market growth.

Earnings Call Highlights

Morningstar Analyst Note

General Market

The CNN “Fear and Greed Index” ticked down to 64 this week from 67 last week. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation)

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) rose to 96.67% equity exposure this week from last week’s 93.79%.

Our podcast|videocast will be out sometime today. We have a lot of great data to cover this week.  Each week, we have a segment called “Ask Me Anything (AMA)” where we answer questions sent in by our audience. If you have a question for this week’s episode, please send it in at the contact form here.

Larger accounts $5-10M+ can access bespoke service anytime here.

Not a solicitation.

*Opinion, Not Advice. See Terms

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DJ Transport Stocks Above 200 EMA

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The column under the date 5/11/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (3/12/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are UP. More estimates came UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than went DOWN – The Up:Down ratio was 19:10. The rest remained the same.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised UP by +0.56% in the past 60 days. 2027 estimates were UP +0.02%.

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The column under the date 5/11/2026 has a letter that represents the movement in 2026 earnings estimates since the most recent print (3/12/2026). “U” means 2026 estimates are UP in the last 60 days. “D” means 2026 estimates are DOWN in the last 60 days. “S” means 2026 estimates have remained the SAME in the last 60 days. The column entitled “1yr Target Est” is the Wall Street consensus 12 month price target for each stock.

What this table is telling us is that estimates are UP. More estimates came UP for 2026 in the past 60 days than went DOWN – The Up:Down ratio was 17:11. The rest remained the same.

The cumulative 2026 earnings power of these 30 stocks was revised UP by +0.94% in the past 60 days. 2027 estimates were UP +0.32%.

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Nasdaq – Cumulative Volume Ratio – 10 Period

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DOW Swenlin Trade Oscillator – Breadth

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