Hello World - Unveiling an abyss of information

A Monkey Outperforming More than 6000 Wall Street Pros

2011-11-10T00:35:00.000+01:00

Back in the late 90’s people got very creative with market indexes. We had a huge dot-com boom and everybody was thinking internet. In January 1999 a fun market index was created – MonkeyDex. It is the first index of Internet stocks picked by a monkey. At its creation, Raven, a 6-year-old female monkey, tossed darts at a dartboard plastered with the names of 133 Internet-related stocks. Later on more stocks were added to the dartboard. Raven showed up many of Wall Street's finest minds with a 213 percent gain for 1999. Had Raven been employed at a Wall Street mutual fund, her performance would rank her as the 22nd best money manager in the country, outperforming more than 6,000 Wall Street pros, according to the Internet Stock Review, creators of the MonkeyDex. "It's all in the wrist action," Raven is reported to have said. Isn’t it annoying to know that a monkey can do your trading job so much better? After all I’m smarter than a monkey… at least that’s what I thought. I wonder if I should invest in a 200%-plus-generating-monkey. If only… Adapted from: http://www.traderivar.com/2010/09/monkey-outperforming-more-than-6000.html

Gabriel Broughton

2011-10-10T00:46:00.000+02:00

Gabriel Broughton was, perhaps, the most influential doctor in the history of British India. In the year 1636 the daughter of Mughal Emperor, Shah Jehan, was badly burnt following the upset of an oil lamp. The Emperor sent for the English ship's surgeon, Gabriel Broughton, who was able to assist her. In a later incident he treated another lady of the Emperor's harem. In reward for his services he asked that the East India Company be given a charter to trade in Bengal. I salute this doctor. A person I know once said that everyone comes to this world with a purpose, some serve only themselves, some serve family and friends, some serve their nation, and some / very few serve humanity. Gabriel Broughton should be recognized as playing a substantial role in helping the British take over India. Many people have the opportunity in their life to bring change and improve things. When we get the chance we should try and serve as many as we can.

Welcome to Pakistan The one you dont see in evening news

2011-06-03T10:14:00.000+02:00

Gambler's Ruin - Part I

2011-01-28T11:15:00.001+01:00

Gambler's Ruin is used for several statistical ideas, including the idea that a gambler who raises his bet to a fixed fraction of bankroll when he wins, but does not reduce it when he loses, will eventually go broke, even if he has a positive expected value on each bet. I thus decided to create a set of models on the S&P 500, that a person invests without any news of market data.

Here is the story, you are an investor with $1 in your hand and are sitting in January 1950. You go to wall street with that $1 and decide to invest in S&P 500. You are investing in the index and have no rights to dividends. Thus gain (loss) on your investment is reflected by the increase (decrease) in the index. Also the index can be invested in with any value, and is infinitely divisble. You have the ability of changing your investment every month and not in between. Logically you can make your decisions based on past price movements, but not on future ones. Your success is defined as the money you have in December 2010.

Before we start developing our model, let me present a few factoids:
1. In January 1950, the index was at 17.05 and in December 2010 it was 1257.64. That means if you invested the $1 in January 1950 and forgot all about it, you would have made $73.76.
2. If we did have a fortune ball and would invest in those months when S&P500 was to go up and keep cash when it was to go down, you would be leaving wall street with $1,376,397.54. Interesting, but I doubt we can actually tell the future.

Next let us try a model, we have a loan account from which we can borrow an infinite sum of money. Every time the market goes down, we borrow money equivalent to a percentage of our current investment in stocks in order to lower the average cost of our purchase. Every time the market goes up and we have an outstanding liability we reduce our exposure in stocks (book profit) by the same percentage. For simplicity purposes I have assumed interest rate to be zero. We shall incorporate the interest rate factor later.

Based on the different percentages we would be walking out with the following wealth.

Percentage	Ending Wealth
0.1	$187.68
0.2	$556.64
0.3	$1981.14
0.4	$8,135.69
0.5	$39,124.89
0.6	$213,154.16
0.7	$672,909.71
0.8	$760,558.97
0.9	$2,314,779.19
1.0	$10,424,557.34

Rich? Yes... but remember the loan account we had... although the loan account finally went down to zero, but it took some very high values along the way. Here is the amount of loan you will have to take in order to gain the profits above.

Percentage	Max loan
0.1	$234.91
0.2	$1,728.55
0.3	$13,814.23
0.4	$96,786.12
0.5	$605,749.87
0.6	$2,670,126.77
0.7	$7,255,826.27
0.8	$10,368,090.32
0.9	$52,904,407.56
1.0	$560,737,216.02

And thats where the gambler dies... since you can't arrange for such high credits, you eventually fail.

Money printing

2011-01-25T00:30:00.001+01:00

How much does money supply have an impact on inflation? I decided to investigate. For starters I just took monthly CPI levels and M2 supply data from January 1959 and plot a graph with M2 on the X-axis and CPI on the Y-axis.

The graph shows a fairly good relationship, on a regression analysis on the two variables, an R² of 93.91 was obtained.

Diversification - Who wants it and who doesn't.

2011-01-23T17:51:00.000+01:00

The simple CAPM model takes the following form:

R = RF + β(MRP) + ε
Plain and simple and probably something that every financial person has seen sometime in his/her career. Since ε is expected to be zero, therefore you are given a premium on systematic risk given by β(MRP) and are not given a return on the idiosyncratic risk undertaken by the ε in the formula.

Theorists believe that all rational investors should ideally be well diversified, to avoid the idiosyncratic risk underlying every investment they undertake.

For a common man, who has no knowledge of various risks underlying a security, he would like to be hedged against an Earth quake in Japan. On the other hand, a trader, investment bank, and other financial professionals around the world ideally want to take risk in that entity. Ideally, you want to know everything about the company you are investing it, from the salaries of every Janitor in the company to who the CEO goes out with. Obviously we are talking about an idealistic world, in the practical world, firstly so much information may not be available, secondly even if so much information is available it will be difficult to process the information.

In efficient markets, the market discounts every available information in the market and therefore every stock is expected to give a return equivalent to its risk profile. There, whether a seasoned investor, with superior knowledge invest in stocks or a complete newbie who has no knowledge of the markets will get similar returns.

On the other hand if you have access to more information, you are better able to make a judgement on the investment decision, thus in the real world, where markets are not completely efficient, we have information asymmetry and investors can only follow the information changes of a few companies. Therefore, ideally one should only follow the number of companies he/she can actively follow. Thus instead of targeting the expected return in CAPM one needs to target excess returns in their own favor.

50 billion? 72 billion? what is the limit?

2011-01-18T21:49:00.001+01:00

Goldman Sachs recently announced an interest to buy a stake in Facebook, valuing Facebook at around 50 billion USD. Recent

What is the value of a company? Essentially the present value of all future cash flows.

Thus,

	Value	= ΣPV(CF)
		= ΣPV(Revenue - Cost)
∴	Value	≤ ΣPV(Revenue)

(If the cost is really low)

Given that Facebook had a revenue of approx 2 billion last year, how much do we expect it to grow? We can't really expect the company to grow at the same rate as it has already. Tapping the first 30% of the internet users is far far easier than grabbing the next 30% and so on.

And how long do we expect this trend to survive? Remember MySpace? Given the high risk, one would assume a far higher discount rate as usual or alternatively assume a fixed life to the company like 10 years or so? then if the company is to earn revenues of even 4 billion every year for 10 years, the company should be valued way below 40 billion.

The question then arises as to why a company like Goldman, which has some of the greatest analysts in the world buy it?

Two reasons mainly, one they could have bought it on a prestige issue and expect a quick sale to someone else soon. As a trader, I am willing to buy something I feel is worth 10 dollars for a 100 if I can expect someone to buy it for 120 from me. With the current hype on Facebook, one can expect that.

Secondly, even Goldman can be wrong. Time will tell. Thus I believe Facebook is worth far less than what the world is currently assuming under herd behavior.

Basics on Facebook

Operations
Facebook is a social networking website that allows people to interact and socialize on the digital world. The website had a 100 million active users by August 26, 2008 after its launch in February 2004. The site now boasts 600 million active users or approx 10% of the world population. This also implies 30% of internet users world wide. (Given that there are 1.9 billion internet users worldwide)

Revenue
The main revenue stream for Facebook is advertising revenue. Facebook made $52 million in 2006 and made a profit of approx $1.86 billion in 2010. Below is a summary of approx ad revenues to Facebook based on year:

Year	Approx Revenue ($millions)	Growth
2006	52	-
2007	150	188%
2008	280	87%
2009	775	177%
2010	1860	158%

Thoughts of FOREIGNERS after visiting Pakistan

2011-01-09T11:49:00.000+01:00

The video is an effort to present the true but hidden Face of Beautiful Pakistan

The existence of the black swan - is the knowledge any good?

2011-01-08T21:54:00.003+01:00

Consider two traders sitting on October 4th 2002, newly joined a trading company that deals solely in the DJIA. The market has just seen a crash and the DJIA index stands at 7528.40 from a high of over 10600 points that year. Both traders watch the market for a few days and watch the index slowly recover.

Trader A analyses the market and believes that there is exists the concept of black swan and the market is bound to crash sometime, when it does the losses will be greater than one can imagine. He therefore either takes no position or shorts the market. Trader B, on the other hand finds black swans irrelevant. He takes risks and actively longs the market.

By December that year, the market stood at around 8600, a thousand points higher than when the traders started. Trader B earning more gets a decent bonus and trader A gets nothing. This scenario continues and ultimately trader A is fired. Trader A continues to believe in black swans and voices his thoughts wherever possible.

In 2008, when the market actually crashes, trader B is fired. Trader A becomes an icon of excellence and is regarded a genius. In the long run, trader B is more successful and trader A only has his windows of fame. Overall trader B makes more money.

That is exactly the problem I have with contrarians, the market is bound to be wrong sometime, and thats when you turn out to be the only one correct. If you can't do any analysis, just always go against the market, when the market will be in distress, they will love you. when it will recover, they will forget you.

I'm not saying black swans don't exist, but the idea is that any superior valuation that doesn't have to do with market behavior is useless. Lets take an example to understand this concept:

Consider unemployment data, a lower (higher) than expected unemployment number means higher (lower) inflation, resulting in higher (lower) interest rates, leading to the currency being more (less) valuable and thus its appreciation (depreciation). All sounds good with the US dollar, and you see a small impact on the currency post the report as the whole market understands this and discount this factor into the price. Lets now move to a developing country. A lower or higher than expected unemployment number will have no impact on the currency immediately, but will have an impact when the actual currency demand comes in. Thus you might actually see an opposite movement in the market. Thus you can actually see currency appreciation when there are riots in the country and depreciation when there is an increase in interest rate.

Superior knowledge of the impact is useless, information on when the flows will actually take place is important, i.e. superior knowledge of market behavior is important. Else you will only utilize resources like risk limits and not be able to make any money.

2011 is a 'sexy' prime

2011-01-02T15:16:00.005+01:00

2011 is a 'sexy' prime. It is also the sum of 11 consecutive primes
2011=157+163+167+173+179+181+191+193+197+199+211.

A sexy prime is one that differs from another prime number by 6. For example 5 and 11 are sexy primes. In case of 2011, 2011 and 2017 are sexy primes.

New Year in Tilburg

2011-01-01T14:51:00.013+01:00

Sir Isaac Newton - "I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people"

2010-11-11T15:02:00.000+01:00

Sir Isaac Newton invested in the shares of South Sea Company. The company did slave trading with South American Countries. The company was promising great prospects, and stock prices rose. Ultimately the bubble burst and Newton lost 20,000 GBP in the company.

The stock market, or any other market is led by human behavior, even the smartest guy who can do financial calculations, has to understand human psychi to survive in the real world.

Trading Simulations - Are they any good?

2010-10-24T13:46:00.003+02:00

This week, I was busy killing time, searching for trading simulation softwares. I played around with a few, but somehow, I couldn't really like it.

Why?

The system needs to artificially intelligent... yes its a good idea to have an artificially intelligent system, but the system needs to show some aspects of human nature in them... the human touch needs to be coded into the intelligence.

Simplest example, amongst all the different systems I studied, none adjusted for liquidity ... it seems that it drains out..

The question arrives: Can artificial intelligence replace man? I believe it can, but we need to design the system to incorporate every aspect of the market, including human errors.

I thus decided to try and make such a system... will update you guys on how things develop.

Heroes of Pakistan

2010-08-28T17:27:00.002+02:00

Talent of Pakistan

2010-08-27T10:49:00.002+02:00

I had been seeing a lot of videos on the dark side of Pakistan, with no one really showing the good side. I decided to use this forum to show people the real Pakistan.

Karachi after the rain

2010-06-07T05:24:00.005+02:00

Rain, rain, go away
Come again some other day
We want to go outside and play
Come again some other day

Picture by Tina Tejwaney

Then which of the favours of your Lord will you deny?

2010-06-04T18:34:00.002+02:00

Was on my way back home from work and around sunset, the sky suddenly became cloudy and i saw clouds move as if someone was busy painting the sky.

Notice a little white streak in the picture

The streak gets larger in size, and clouds form a new shape in a matter of minutes.

Kaali Kaali ZulfoN Ke Phande Na Daalo

2010-06-04T12:06:00.005+02:00

kaali kaali zulfoN ke phande na dalo; hamein zinda rehne do, ai husn-walo
na chhero hamein, hum sataaye hue hain; bahut zakhm seene pe khaye hue hain
sitam gar ho tum khoob pehchaante hain; tumhari adaoN ko hum jaante hain
daga-baaz ho tum sitam dhane wale; fareb-e-muhaabat mein uljhaane wale
ye rangeen kahani tumhi ko mubarak; tumhari jawani tumhi ko mubarak
hamari taraf say nigahein hata lo; hamein zinda rehnay do ai husn walo
kaali kaali zulfoN ke phande na dalo; hamein zinda rehne do, ai husn-walo
Husn Wale Wafa Nahi Karte; Ishq Wale Daga Nahi Karte
Zulm Karna To Inki Aadat Hai; Yeh Kisi Ka Bhala Nahi Karte
Jo Nazar Aar Paar Ho Jaye; Wohi Dil Ka Qaraar Ho Jaye
Apni Zulfon Ka Daal Do Saya; Teergi Khushgawar Ho Jaye
Teri Nazron Ko Dekh Paye Agar; Shaikh Bhi Mai'gusaar Ho Jaye
Tujh Ko Daikhe Jo Ik Nazar Wo Rung; Chand Bhi Sharam Saar Ho Jaye
Aaina Apne Samnay Se Hata; Yeh Na Ho Khud Se Pyar Ho Jaye
Bhol Ho Jati Hai Yoon Taish Mei Aaya Na Karo; Faasle Khatam Karo Baat Barhaya Na Karo
Yeh Nigahein, Yeh Ishare, Yeh Adaein Tauba; In Sharaboon Ko Sir-E-Aam Lutaya Na Karo
Shaam Gehri Ho To Kuch Aur Haseen Hoti Hai; Saya-E-Zulf Ko Chehre Se Hataya Na Karo
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Na Chay'ro Hamein, Hum Sata’ay Hoa’ay Hein; Bohot Zakhm Seenay Pay Kha’ay Hoa’ay Hein
Sitam Gar Ho Tum, Khoob Pehchantay Hein; Tumhari Adaoon Ko Hum Jantay Hein
Daga Baaz Ho Tum Sitam Dhanay Walay; Faray’bay Mohabat Mein Uljhanay Walay
Yeah Rangeen Kahani Tumhe Ko Mubarak; Tumhari Jawani Tumhe Ko Mubarak
Hamari Taraf Say Nigahein Hata Lo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do Ay Husn Walo
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Zangeer Mein Zulfoon Ki Phans Janay Ko Kia Kahiyeh; Deewana Mera Dil Hai, Deewanay Ko Kia Kahiyeh
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Vocables... (3-4 Minz)
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Sambhalo Zara Apna Aanchal Gulabi; Dikhao Na Hans Hans Ke Aankhein Sharabi
Sulook Inka Dunya Mei Acha Nahi Hai; Haseeno Pe Hum Ko Bharosa Nahi Hai
Utha'tay Hein Nazrein To Girti Hai Bijli; Adaa Jo Bhi Nikli, Qayamat He Nikli
Jahaan Tum Ne Chehre Se Aanchal Hataya; Waheen Ehl-E-Dil Ko Tamasha Banaya
Khuda Ke Liyeh Hum Pe Dorein Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehne Do Ey Husn Walo
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Aaa... (Chants)
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Vocables...
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Aawara Howi Jaati Hein Zulfoon Ko Sambhalo; Dil Mera Ulajh Jaye Ga Yeh Jaal Na Dalo
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Aaa...
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Apni Is Zulf-E-Pareshaan Ko Sambhalo Warna; Aise Gustaakh Ko Hum Choom Lia Karte Hein
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Uljha Hai Paaon Yaar Ka Zulf-E-Daraaz Mein; Lo Aap Apne Daam Mei Sayyad Aa Gaya
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Vocables...
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Aaa...
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Vocables... Chants (2-3 Minz Of Nusrat And Farrukh)
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Sadawaar Karte Ho T?Deg-E-Jafa Ka; Bahate Ho Tum Khoon Ehl-E-Wafa Ka
Yeh Nagan Si Zulfein, Yeh Zehreli Nazrein; Wo Pani Na Mange Yeh Jiss Ko Bhi Das Le
Wo Lut Jaye Jo Tumse Dil Ko Laga Le; Phire Hasratoon Ka Janaza Uthaye
Hai Maloom Hum Ko Tumhari Haqiqat; Mohabbat Ke Parde Mei Karte Ho Nafrat
Kaheen Aur Ja Ke Adaein Uchalo; Hamein Zinda Rehne Do Ey Husn Walo
Aaa...
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Vocables...
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Yeh Jhoti Numaish Yeh Jhoti Banawat; Fareb E Nazar Hai Nazar Ki Lagawat
Yeh Sumbal Se Gesu, Yeh Aariz Gulabi; Zamane Milaein Gay Ik Din Kharabi
Fana Hum Ko Kar Dena Yeh Muskarana; Ada Kafirana Chalan Zalimana
Dikhao Na Yeh Ishwa-O-Naz Hum Ko; Sikhao Na Ulfat Ke Andaaz Hum Ko
Kisi Aur Per Zulf Ka Jaal Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehne Do Ey Husn Walo
Kali Kali Zulfoon Ke Phanday Na Dalo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo
Apni Zulfon Ka Prudah Bana Lijiyeh; Husne Masoom Ub Fitnagar Ho Gaya
Palkein Gir Jaye Gi, Door Jal Jaye Ga; Rukh Tumhari Nazar Ka Jidhar Ho Gaya
Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo; Hamein Zinda Rehnay Do, Ay Husn Walo...

‘The saints will protect Karachi from Cyclone Phet’

2010-06-03T12:01:00.002+02:00

‘The saints will protect Karachi from Cyclone Phet’

By Shaheryar Popalzai

June 03, 2010

Many people believe local Saint, Abdullah Shah Ghazi will protect Karachi from natural disasters.

KARACHI: As Cyclone Phet approaches the shores of Karachi and panic levels rise among local residents, many have turned to various patron saints of Karachi seeking protection.

Urban legends of the countless times Sufi saints have protected Karachi from storms and tsunamis are currently making the rounds in the city.

Some stories speak of the saints individually, while others claim that the collective prayers of these saints protect the metropolis.

Four saints

According to one legend four Sufi saints protect the city from impending disaster.

The saints are Abudllah Shah Ghazi in Clifton, Samandri Baba on the National Highway, Yusuf Shah in Manora and Manghoo Baba in Manghopir. It is said that the presence of these saints in Karachi have already saved the city from natural disasters including earthquakes, cyclones and all sea-related phenomenon.

The legend of Abdullah Shah Ghazi

Many Karachiites strongly believe that as long as Shah Ghazi’s shrine is kept clean and well-maintained, Karachi will always be spared from deadly sea storms. Most recently, storms were said to have been deflected by the Sufi saint to the Indian city of Gujarat when they were just 10 hours away from Karachi.

A famous legend regarding Abdullah Shah Ghazi says that once when the sea was rough and fishermen could not go out to sea, they went to Abdullah Shah Ghazi and asked him to pray for the sea to remain calm.

Abdullah Shah Ghazi took his eating bowl and submerged it into the sea water and curled the bowl by pressing it from the sides, enclosing the water inside.

He then said to the sea “you have been misbehaving quite a lot lately!”, the water is then said to have calmed down. Many people believe the the sea is said to have moved far away because of Abdullah Shah Ghazi’s warning.

The seven Sufi brothers

Another legend tells us of seven Sufi brothers, whos shrines protect Karachi from oncoming storms and tsunamis. These brothers were Ghayab Shah of Kemari, Alim Shah of Jamia Cloth, Vilayat Shah of Malir, Jumman Shah of Shahra e Faisal, Samandri Baba on the National Hihgway, Yusuf Shah of Manora and Misri Shah in Defence.

Mewa Shah

Mewa Shah, another local Sufi saint buried in Karachi, is also entwined in the legendary brotherhood of protective saints.

Mewa Shah was believed to have set fire to a ship carrying him to exile, said his prayers on the waves of the Arabian Sea and mounted a large fish which took him back to the shores of Karachi.

Visitors on The Express Tribune website have also kept their faith in Abdullah Shah Ghazi and the patron saints’ powers of protection.

Farrukh Ahmed stated, “It is to be noted that all of the times, Abdullah Shah Ghazi saved us from all the cyclones in the past, so please don’t worry and have a firm faith in Allah as this will not gonna happen InshAllah (only heavy rains might occur), so let’s start pray from today for our City.”

Meanwhile, Alam responding to news that Cyclone Phet will hit Karachi as a down graded level 2 cyclone succinctly stated, “Phet 0 – Abdullah Shah Ghazi 1.”

Blink - Malcolm Gladwell

2010-05-15T16:26:00.006+02:00

Human thinking process -

The human mind has two thinking processors - the adaptive unconscious one and the conscious brain. The adaptive unconscious one - which ill now call the ten second brain - a faster processor working somewhere....

when you meet a person you see for the first time - in a second you make a judgement about him/her. You like the person, but you don't know why ... you see a business deal thats logical yet you know its not good for you.... some call this the sixth sense... some call it something else.. but it is what the brain processes with a thin slice of information.... and surprizingly.... its usually right.

thus:

"It is quite possible for people who have never met us and who have spent only twenty minutes thinking about us to come to a better understanding of who we are than people who have known us for years"

I being a trader... enjoy this... you can make a decision on a currency in ten seconds... or you can never make it at all....

Taleb speaks my mind

2010-04-15T18:43:00.001+02:00

"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: 'I don’t know...."
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Liar's Poker - Probably the best work produced by Michael Lewis

2009-06-21T15:37:00.004+02:00

A hilarious true projection of the trading world.

The difference between a trader and a salesman was more than a matter of mere function. The traders ruled the shop, and it wasn't hard to see why. A salesman's year-end bonus was determined by trader. A trader's bonus was determined by the profits on his trading books. A salesman had no purchase on a trader, while a trader had complete control over a salesman. Not surprisingly, young salesmen dashed around the place looking cowed and frightened, while young traders smoked cigars. That the tyranny of the trader was institutionalized shouldn't surprise anyone. Traders were the people closest to the money. The firm's top executives were traders. Gutfreund himself had been a trader. There were even occasional rumors, probably started by the traders, that all the salespeople were going to be fired, and the firm would simply trade in a blissful vacuum. Who needed the fucking customers anyway?

What is Recession?

2009-03-18T22:28:00.000+01:00

Someone sent me this - some while back... has a lot of meaning to it

This story is about a man who once upon a time was selling Hotdogs by the roadside. He was illiterate, so he never read newspapers. He was hard of hearing, so he never listened to the radio. His eyes were weak, so he never watched television. But enthusiastically, he sold lots of hotdogs.

He was smart enough to offer some attractive schemes to increase his sales. His sales and profit went up. He ordered more a more raw material and buns and sold more. He recruited more supporting staff to serve more customers. He started offering home deliveries. Eventually he got himself a bigger and better stove. As his business was growing, the son, who had recently graduated from college, joined his father.

Then something strange happened.

The son asked, "Dad, aren't you aware of the great recession that is coming our way?" The father replied, "No, but tell me about it." The son said, "The international situation is terrible. The domestic situation is even worse. We should be prepared for the coming bad times."

The man thought that since his son had been to college, read the papers, listened to the radio and watched TV. He ought to know and his advice should not be taken lightly. So the next day onwards, the father cut down the his raw material order and buns, took down the colorful signboard, removed all the special schemes he was offering to the customers and was no longer as enthusiastic. He reduced his staff strength by giving layoffs. Very soon, fewer and fewer people bothered to stop at his Hotdog stand. And his sales started coming down rapidly and so did the profit. The father said to his son, "Son, you were right". "We are in the middle of a recession and crisis. I am glad you warned me ahead of time."

Moral of the Story: It's all in your MIND! And we actually FUEL this recession much more than we think.

In the line of fire

2007-03-29T03:48:00.000+02:00

can a person seriously be accident prone... for i have a feeling my bad times have begun...

three days of death...

first a guy falls on my car and shatters the windshield... i give a job interview in which the interviewer asks me nothing yet hopes to judge me... i then take the other car... and even that falls prey to an accident.... all this in a day

the next morning when i take a rickshaw to my institute ... the rickshaw also falls prey to an accident... in the evening when i try to return... it takes me three hours to get home... a fifteen minute drive takes three hours...

and then the today i go normally... but then find out that most of my appointments have been canceled ... i waste most of my day at the institute ... and reach home late....

sometimes... everything goes against you... no matter what you do... life is troublesome for you...

lets see what i have for tommorrow

ASP.net vs PHP (development time)

2007-03-27T18:34:00.001+02:00

a blogger posted on my previous post regarding which of the two languages take lesser time to develop webpages... here primarily it depends on your skill level.

Most PHP programmers have a good collection of php code snippets.... alternatively they can fetch it online.... thus giving them the advantage of quicker development.
If you are an ASP.net developer and have been coding for a couple of years you effectively are able to create a similar database of components...

Thus you can't really compare the two languages in terms of development speed.

There are many other myths, PHP lovers believe....

will be clarifying that in my next post...