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NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 3

Heraldk — Sun, 13 May 2012 12:19:38 +0000

Ahh, playoff hockey. The last update was rushed, so I’ll go back to the first round to have a look at how we’ve done so far:

NY Rangers 0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093 Boston 0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218 Florida 0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003 Pittsburgh 0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123 Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037 New Jersey 0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043 Washington 0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006 Ottawa 0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014

Vancouver 0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118 St Louis 0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124 Phoenix 0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026 Nashville 0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039 Detroit 0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088 Chicago 0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020 San Jose 0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024 Los Angeles 0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025

This has been a strange playoffs. “Home Advantage” didn’t seem to offer the benefit it usually does, and we saw pre-playoff favourites Boston, Pittsburgh and Vancouver all fall in the first round. Oops. As a result, the predictor did worse than in past years, going 5/8. Of the series, I watched a bunch of the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series. It was one of the more entertaining series … but a little crazy that Pittsburgh gave up big leads to lose games they probably should’ve won.

On to the next round!

NY Rangers 0.717 0.416 0.223 Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132 New Jersey 0.454 0.210 0.092 Washington 0.283 0.098 0.031

St_Louis 0.643 0.410 0.249 Phoenix 0.436 0.168 0.072 Nashville 0.564 0.248 0.122 Los Angeles 0.357 0.174 0.079

Yikes, what a weird playoffs. The Rangers nearly fell to washington in 7 games, and if they had the predictor would’ve completely bricked this round. 1/4 isn’t too bad right? The Kings are putting on a clinic for how to knock off the top seeds in the conference. Apparently they are the first #8 seed team to ever defeat the number 1 and 2 seeds in a single NHL playoff – and they made it look easy. Now if only I had picked them in my playoff pools …

In the East, the Devils made fairly short work of the Flyers – a team that has a lot of offensive firepower but their goaltending has struggled … and the rangers had a lot more trouble than expected against washington. The Capitals sure got a lot of benefit from some fine goaltending from their 3rd string goalie. Wow did Holtby ever play well. But it wasn’t quite enough to beat the rangers.

Alright, so the conference finals are up next. Here’s what the predictor says for the matchups:

NY Rangers 0.601 0.370 New Jersey 0.399 0.206

Phoenix 0.478 0.196 Los Angeles 0.522 0.228

The rangers are favourites as expected, but I expect them to have problems with the Devils. The Devils are relatively rested and the Rangers have had two game 7′s already.

In the West, Phoenix and LA make a pretty unlikely matchup. The simulator likes LA, and I do as well – they seem to have the right combination of depth, hot goaltending, and confidence … and Phoenix should be a relatively easy opponent compared to Vancouver and St. Louis.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 2

Heraldk — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 08:01:11 +0000

I’m in a rush and can’t write any commentary, but here’s the predictions for the round 2 matchups:

NY_Rangers 0.717 0.416 0.223 Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132 New_Jersey 0.454 0.210 0.092 Washington 0.283 0.098 0.031

St_Louis 0.643 0.410 0.249 Phoenix 0.436 0.168 0.072 Nashville 0.564 0.248 0.122 Los_Angeles 0.357 0.174 0.079

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012

Heraldk — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 18:08:16 +0000

Greetings once again!

I had grandiose plans of getting a new version of the simulator done in time for the playoffs this year. Oops – looks like the playoffs are going to start before I get there. Damn.

Oh well – for now, here’s the old simulator run for the first round. Maybe I’ll get around to the new version before the end of the playoffs. No guarantees though.

Some interesting matchups in the first round, with Boston benefitting the most according to goal differential against the Capitals. As a result, the Bruins are relatively heavy favourites to win the cup again – but less so than the predictor predicted for the Canucks last year (21.8% for the Bruins this year compared to 29% for the Canucks last year). Florida, despite getting home ice advantage and 3rd in the East have basically no shot at the cup – being underdogs to the Devils. Phoenix is in a similar position, but the predictor still likes their chances against first round Chicago.

Boston, St Louis, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh are the favourites in this year’s playoffs. I’m looking forward to watching some playoff hockey again!!

Herald

A Night Out

Heraldk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 19:19:28 +0000

A Night Out

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NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 4

Heraldk — Sat, 28 May 2011 09:34:17 +0000

Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here’s how the predictor did for this round:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480 San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins 0.377 Vancouver_Canucks 0.623

The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed … but I guess I couldn’t begrudge them winning their first cup. I’m a bit conflicted though — I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I’m looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald

Pointy

Heraldk — Sat, 28 May 2011 09:19:44 +0000

Pointy

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NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 3

Heraldk — Fri, 13 May 2011 07:46:10 +0000

Well the 2nd round was almost totally lame compared to the first round as many of the series looked like they were going to be short one-sided affairs. But the Western matchups were made into series as both Nashville and Detroit put up good fights before finally bowing out. Here’s a look at how the predictor did for this round:

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093 Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371 San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048 Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

3/4 is a pretty good record, with the only miss being Tampa Bay. The predictor goes 9 for 12 overall so far. San Jose nearly coughed up a 3-0 series lead but held on, but really the story was Dwayne Roloson’s continued playoff excellence. That guy is 40 years old and playing absolutely briliantly!

What’s up for the next round? Well:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480 San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

Vancouver and Boston are heavy favourites to meet in the stanely cup finals. But you never know — both the lightning and the sharks have strong teams and the matchups will be very interesting.

Herald

Gateshead Millenium Bridge

Heraldk — Mon, 02 May 2011 13:41:20 +0000

Gateshead Millenium Bridge

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NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 2

Heraldk — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 07:40:33 +0000

The NHL seems to have a quicker turnaround this year between the first and second rounds, so I’m trying to get this post out in a hurry. The first round of the playoffs was about as exciting a round as I think I can remember. Several multi-goal deficits were erased, lots of OT, lots of game 7s… makes me wish I could’ve watched more of the games than I got to.

Here’s a quick recap of the first round:

Washington_Capitals 0.464 0.252 0.114 0.048 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.594 0.277 0.139 0.061 Boston_Bruins 0.703 0.421 0.257 0.136 Pittsburgh_Penguins 0.664 0.355 0.189 0.089 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.336 0.125 0.046 0.014 Montreal_Canadiens 0.297 0.123 0.047 0.016 Buffalo_Sabres 0.406 0.184 0.070 0.025 New_York_Rangers 0.536 0.263 0.139 0.063

Vancouver_Canucks 0.725 0.557 0.418 0.290 San_Jose_Sharks 0.555 0.313 0.130 0.064 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.566 0.259 0.086 0.035 Anaheim_Ducks 0.387 0.142 0.042 0.015 Nashville_Predators 0.613 0.293 0.119 0.055 Phoenix_Coyotes 0.434 0.145 0.047 0.017 Los_Angeles_Kings 0.445 0.150 0.077 0.034 Chicago_Blackhawks 0.275 0.143 0.081 0.038

The predictor goes 6 for 8 this year in the first round – losing on the NYR and PIT bets. The Penguins suffered the loss of Malkin and Crosby which they couldn’t really recover from (tough to lose those guys), but they made it a series. The rangers put up a good fight but couldn’t hold onto a couple of leads that should probably be games they win.
I was rooting for the Habs to upset the bruins, but that didn’t happen … and the Canucks managed to almost lose their series after taking a 3-0 lead.

So what do we have for the next round?

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093 Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371 San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048 Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

The Bruins are still favourites out of the East to win the cup, but they’ve got a tough match ahead against the flyers. Meanwhile the Capitals have the edge on the lightning by a fair margin. In the West, the Canucks are heavy favourites again, but their success will depend on how they respond to the almost-first-round-collapse against the Hawks. Definitely Chicago was a tough first round draw though, and they have a very deep team so they should be up for it. San Jose has the edge against Detroit, but that series could probably go either way. It’s tough to bet against the wings. Probably the series to watch this round.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2011

Heraldk — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 08:03:23 +0000

For previous years see 2008, 2009, 2010

I don’t think it should be a surprise to anyone that Vancouver is heavily favoured to win the cup this year. A couple of interesting notes:

Boston is the favourite out of the east this year, according to the simulator, despite sitting in 3rd in the East. This comes out of a having one of the best goals for/goals against ratios in the conference. They also benefit from a first round match against the Canadiens who have a low goals for total for the year.

Pittsburgh also surprises as being a second favourite in the East — also benefitting from a favourable first round matchup against the Lightning who have a very high goals against total for the year.

The West is a lot more ordinary in the ranking, with the favs being Vancouver, San Jose, and Detroit.

Looking forward to more playoff hockey! Let’s go!