Heraldk.ca

NHL Playoff Predictor 2013 – Round 2

Heraldk — Wed, 15 May 2013 07:12:47 +0000

The first round is already over, and this is how things stacked up from it:

Pittsburgh 0.812 0.560 0.380 0.209 Montreal 0.556 0.310 0.131 0.052 Washington 0.487 0.240 0.095 0.035 Boston 0.597 0.299 0.140 0.059 Toronto 0.403 0.162 0.060 0.020 NY Rangers 0.513 0.219 0.100 0.039 Ottawa 0.444 0.145 0.070 0.025 NY Islanders 0.188 0.064 0.023 0.006

Chicago 0.871 0.689 0.531 0.368 Anaheim 0.592 0.355 0.132 0.060 Vancouver 0.482 0.200 0.054 0.019 St Louis 0.495 0.221 0.078 0.032 Los Angeles 0.505 0.228 0.081 0.033 San Jose 0.518 0.167 0.058 0.021 Detroit 0.408 0.097 0.048 0.018 Minnesota 0.129 0.043 0.016 0.004

The predictor goes a solid 6/8 on the first round predictions, with Detroit and Ottawa being the misses. Although we got a bit of help from Boston’s unlikely 3 goal come-back in the third period of game 7.

Here’s what the next round looks like:
Pittsburgh 0.702 0.462 0.242 Boston 0.533 0.225 0.090 NY Rangers 0.467 0.181 0.067 Ottawa 0.298 0.133 0.045

Chicago 0.798 0.626 0.420 Los Angeles 0.551 0.162 0.063 San Jose 0.449 0.115 0.040 Detroit 0.202 0.097 0.034

Chicago is now the overwhelming favourite to win the cup according to the simulator. Here’s hoping the 2nd round is fun to watch!

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2013 Round 1

Heraldk — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 19:14:27 +0000

Gee, this blog has languished in rather unmaintained fashion. Someday I’ll give this blog the love it deserves.

At any rate, I wasn’t totally sure if the simulator would work all that well on the shortened season this year. Given that there’s less data, and teams like Chicago and Pittsburgh went on some ridiculous runs during this season … well, I don’t really know how this will go. But hey, lets give it another spin shall we? The following is a one million playoffs simulation, just like the previous ones…

Chicago and Pittsburgh are heavy favourites as you can imagine. Boston looks like a sweet spot in the East though. San Jose being favourite over Vancouver and the Rangers being favourite over Washington both make sense given the comparatively weaker 3rd seed.

Hope you enjoy the post season!

Heraldk

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 4

Heraldk — Tue, 29 May 2012 17:39:06 +0000

Well here we are, back to the stanley cup playoffs. The LA kings walked all over Phoenix en route to a very impressive cup-run. They are looking like the favourites in most people’s books to take down New Jersey. The Rangers had a lot of trouble with the Devils, and ultimately couldn’t prevail.

NY Rangers 0.601 0.370 New Jersey 0.399 0.206

Phoenix 0.478 0.196 Los Angeles 0.522 0.228

So the predictor sits at a 7/14 going into the final round. What does it like for the stanley cup final?

New Jersey 0.506 Los Angeles 0.494

Hmm. So very close. Given the way that LA got there, I’d have to give them the nod as the favourite. But this should be a very interesting playoff series. Too bad I’m going to have trouble watching them. All the games have been scheduled at 8pm eastern, which is 1am in my current place of residence. So maybe one of the weekend games I’ll get a chance to watch.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 3

Heraldk — Sun, 13 May 2012 12:19:38 +0000

Ahh, playoff hockey. The last update was rushed, so I’ll go back to the first round to have a look at how we’ve done so far:

NY Rangers 0.657 0.391 0.180 0.093 Boston 0.807 0.566 0.354 0.218 Florida 0.305 0.056 0.012 0.003 Pittsburgh 0.629 0.374 0.214 0.123 Philadelphia 0.371 0.178 0.080 0.037 New Jersey 0.695 0.282 0.103 0.043 Washington 0.193 0.058 0.019 0.006 Ottawa 0.343 0.096 0.037 0.014

Vancouver 0.641 0.407 0.227 0.118 St Louis 0.650 0.408 0.234 0.124 Phoenix 0.516 0.194 0.074 0.026 Nashville 0.417 0.206 0.094 0.039 Detroit 0.583 0.333 0.179 0.088 Chicago 0.484 0.171 0.061 0.020 San Jose 0.350 0.139 0.064 0.024 Los Angeles 0.359 0.143 0.067 0.025

This has been a strange playoffs. “Home Advantage” didn’t seem to offer the benefit it usually does, and we saw pre-playoff favourites Boston, Pittsburgh and Vancouver all fall in the first round. Oops. As a result, the predictor did worse than in past years, going 5/8. Of the series, I watched a bunch of the Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series. It was one of the more entertaining series … but a little crazy that Pittsburgh gave up big leads to lose games they probably should’ve won.

On to the next round!

NY Rangers 0.717 0.416 0.223 Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132 New Jersey 0.454 0.210 0.092 Washington 0.283 0.098 0.031

St_Louis 0.643 0.410 0.249 Phoenix 0.436 0.168 0.072 Nashville 0.564 0.248 0.122 Los Angeles 0.357 0.174 0.079

Yikes, what a weird playoffs. The Rangers nearly fell to washington in 7 games, and if they had the predictor would’ve completely bricked this round. 1/4 isn’t too bad right? The Kings are putting on a clinic for how to knock off the top seeds in the conference. Apparently they are the first #8 seed team to ever defeat the number 1 and 2 seeds in a single NHL playoff – and they made it look easy. Now if only I had picked them in my playoff pools …

In the East, the Devils made fairly short work of the Flyers – a team that has a lot of offensive firepower but their goaltending has struggled … and the rangers had a lot more trouble than expected against washington. The Capitals sure got a lot of benefit from some fine goaltending from their 3rd string goalie. Wow did Holtby ever play well. But it wasn’t quite enough to beat the rangers.

Alright, so the conference finals are up next. Here’s what the predictor says for the matchups:

NY Rangers 0.601 0.370 New Jersey 0.399 0.206

Phoenix 0.478 0.196 Los Angeles 0.522 0.228

The rangers are favourites as expected, but I expect them to have problems with the Devils. The Devils are relatively rested and the Rangers have had two game 7′s already.

In the West, Phoenix and LA make a pretty unlikely matchup. The simulator likes LA, and I do as well – they seem to have the right combination of depth, hot goaltending, and confidence … and Phoenix should be a relatively easy opponent compared to Vancouver and St. Louis.

Herald

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012 Round 2

Heraldk — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 08:01:11 +0000

I’m in a rush and can’t write any commentary, but here’s the predictions for the round 2 matchups:

NY_Rangers 0.717 0.416 0.223 Philadelphia 0.546 0.276 0.132 New_Jersey 0.454 0.210 0.092 Washington 0.283 0.098 0.031

St_Louis 0.643 0.410 0.249 Phoenix 0.436 0.168 0.072 Nashville 0.564 0.248 0.122 Los_Angeles 0.357 0.174 0.079

NHL Playoff Predictor 2012

Heraldk — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 18:08:16 +0000

Greetings once again!

I had grandiose plans of getting a new version of the simulator done in time for the playoffs this year. Oops – looks like the playoffs are going to start before I get there. Damn.

Oh well – for now, here’s the old simulator run for the first round. Maybe I’ll get around to the new version before the end of the playoffs. No guarantees though.

Some interesting matchups in the first round, with Boston benefitting the most according to goal differential against the Capitals. As a result, the Bruins are relatively heavy favourites to win the cup again – but less so than the predictor predicted for the Canucks last year (21.8% for the Bruins this year compared to 29% for the Canucks last year). Florida, despite getting home ice advantage and 3rd in the East have basically no shot at the cup – being underdogs to the Devils. Phoenix is in a similar position, but the predictor still likes their chances against first round Chicago.

Boston, St Louis, Vancouver, and Pittsburgh are the favourites in this year’s playoffs. I’m looking forward to watching some playoff hockey again!!

Herald

A Night Out

Heraldk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 19:19:28 +0000

A Night Out

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NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 4

Heraldk — Sat, 28 May 2011 09:34:17 +0000

Well that was a fun round. Dwayne Roloson and the Tampa Bay Lightning very nearly toppled Boston. It was a pretty sick run for that team. Vancouver kind of waltzed past the San Jose, although it was a pretty hard fought series. Here’s how the predictor did for this round:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480 San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

The predictor goes 2/2 this round, for an overall record of 11/14.

Boston_Bruins 0.377 Vancouver_Canucks 0.623

The predictor likes Vancouver, and I wouldn’t mind seeing the cup come back to Canada. As an Oiler fan it is a bit painful to see the Canucks succeed … but I guess I couldn’t begrudge them winning their first cup. I’m a bit conflicted though — I entered a playoff pool and have in that Boston to beat Vancouver. If that happens, I win the 126 entrant for-bragging-rights pool. So I guess the series is win-win for me. I’m looking forward to watching the matches from Canada!

Herald

Pointy

Heraldk — Sat, 28 May 2011 09:19:44 +0000

Pointy

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NHL Playoff Predictor 2011 Round 3

Heraldk — Fri, 13 May 2011 07:46:10 +0000

Well the 2nd round was almost totally lame compared to the first round as many of the series looked like they were going to be short one-sided affairs. But the Western matchups were made into series as both Nashville and Detroit put up good fights before finally bowing out. Here’s a look at how the predictor did for this round:

Washington_Capitals 0.610 0.260 0.100 Philadelphia_Flyers 0.407 0.232 0.093 Boston_Bruins 0.593 0.386 0.188 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.390 0.123 0.034

Vancouver_Canucks 0.726 0.535 0.371 San_Jose_Sharks 0.585 0.210 0.103 Detroit_Red_Wings 0.415 0.118 0.048 Nashville_Predators 0.274 0.137 0.063

3/4 is a pretty good record, with the only miss being Tampa Bay. The predictor goes 9 for 12 overall so far. San Jose nearly coughed up a 3-0 series lead but held on, but really the story was Dwayne Roloson’s continued playoff excellence. That guy is 40 years old and playing absolutely briliantly!

What’s up for the next round? Well:

Boston_Bruins 0.718 0.315 Tampa_Bay_Lightning 0.282 0.066

Vancouver_Canucks 0.707 0.480 San_Jose_Sharks 0.293 0.139

Vancouver and Boston are heavy favourites to meet in the stanely cup finals. But you never know — both the lightning and the sharks have strong teams and the matchups will be very interesting.

Herald