Hoke's Mad Magicians

Are The Michigan Wolverines Really A Longshot For The College Football Playoff?

2015-11-20T11:36:00.001-05:00

A longshot.

That’s all the experts are currently giving the Michigan Wolverines to make this year’s College Football Playoff. The weekly rankings came out on Tuesday evening and for many in the national media, the Wolverines remain an afterthought to make this year’s field of four.

Now, that’s certainly not a bold opinion. Michigan came in at No. 12 in the rankings and undeniably, doesn’t have a direct path to the championship rounds. The Wolverines are 8-2 on the season and actually need help to even make the Big Ten championship game. As such, it’s not hard to rationalize why many view Michigan’s Playoff odds as minimal.

But still, are the experts right? Does Michigan have just a longshot to make the field?

(click below for more)

Michigan’s Play Down The Stretch

Well, to answer this question, two scenarios have to be discussed. As mentioned, Michigan doesn’t have its fate in its own hands and as such, some things just have to go right for there to be any chance at making the Playoff. As such, separating these two scenarios is absolutely essential to having any productive discussion on whether Michigan can make the field.

Let’s take a look at the scenarios.

Michigan’s End of Season Scenarios:

Scenario One:

Michigan beats Penn State and Ohio State;
Michigan State loses one of its final two games and;
Michigan beats Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.

Scenario Two:

Michigan loses to either Penn State or Ohio State;
Michigan State does not lose one of its final two games or;
Michigan loses to Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.

Now, the reason I laid out these two scenarios is because the only, and I mean only, way that Michigan has any chance to make the College Football Playoff is with Scenario One. It’s nearly impossible to imagine Michigan being able to move up eight spots in the rankings in three weeks without winning the Big Ten championship.

How Far Can Michigan Rise Realistically?

Assuming Scenario One does occur - keep in mind that I will be assuming Scenario One takes place for the remainder of this piece - the picture looks a whole lot different. For one thing, it pretty much guarantees that Michigan will be moving up the rankings.

The question will simply be how much the Wolverines can move up over the next few weeks.

To assess this, let’s take a look at where the rankings stand as of Tuesday evening. Obviously, this will be a moving list going forward, but let’s take a look at where things sit.

Week 12 College Football Rankings:

Clemson
Alabama
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Iowa
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Florida
Michigan State
Baylor
Stanford
Michigan
Utah
Florida State
LSU
Navy
UNC
TCU
Houston

First, let me note that I didn’t go any further than No. 19 because there’s no chance that any team under Houston can pass Michigan in the rankings with Scenario One. All of the teams ranked below No. 19 have as many or more losses than the Wolverines and are already behind. As such, putting them in this discussion just isn’t logical.

The other big thing that pops out is that there is guaranteed to be movement in the rankings in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, it’s hard to put a thumb on who will lose and when those teams will lose in the coming weeks.

To help with this issue, what I’ve done is simulate the rest of the season according to the S&P rankings released by Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall. For those unfamiliar with these rankings, they are advanced statistical predictive models fo team. With these, we get an unbiased predictor to give us the outlook of the rest of the season.

This is important because it’s a realistic indicator and isn’t just a “gut feeling” on who will lose and when. With that, let’s take a look at the projections.

S & P End of Season Predictions:

Week 12 Ranking	Team	11/21 Week	11/28 Week	Champ Week
#1	Clemson	W	W	W
#2	Alabama	W	W	W
#3	Ohio State	W	L	--
#4	Notre Dame	W	W	--
#5	Iowa	W	W	L
#6	Ok. State	L	L	--
#7	Oklahoma	W	W	--
#8	Florida	W	W	L
$9	Michigan State	L	W	--
#10	Baylor	W	W	W
#11	Stanford	W	L	W
#12	Michigan	W	W	W
#13	Utah	W	W	L
#14	Florida State	W	L	--
#15	LSU	L	W	--
#16	Navy	W	W	W & W*
#17	UNC	W	L	L
#18	TCU	L	L	--
#19	Houston	W	L	--

* - Army vs Navy game delayed a week.

Obviously, there’s a lot of data to take in there. The first thing to note is that every team from No. 13 through No. 19 is projected to lose at least one game, except Navy. It’s tough to speculate as to what the Committee will or won’t do, but would the Committee push Navy above Michigan if Navy wins out? The Midshipmen would have a great resume, but it seems unlikely assuming that Michigan would have wins over Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa in the final three weeks. As such, it’s hard to imagine anybody passing the Wolverines in this scenario.

The other thing to note is that six teams ranked above Michigan are projected to lose. These teams are Florida, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Stanford. Four of these teams are projected to have two losses with the only exceptions being Iowa and Ohio State. Given that Michigan would have beaten Ohio State and Iowa to close the season, it’s not hard to imagine that Michigan passes all six of these teams in the rankings.

All told, the Wolverines would then be projected to be ranked No. 6 after winning the Big Ten title. Here are how the new rankings would look at the top based on these projections.

Pre-Playoff Rankings:

Clemson
Alabama
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Baylor
Michigan

Michigan would fall just short of making the field in this scenario. However, there are a few things that are important to stress here. First, this scenario would involve zero upsets according to the S&P rankings. Maybe these results go against how some of these teams are perceived right now, but according to S&P, this is how things would end up.

Additionally, remember that Michigan really wouldn’t “jump” anyone in this scenario. This is really just predictably moving up with teams losing above and Michigan winning. In fact, given Baylor’s underwhelming resume and the strength of the Big Ten, is it that hard to imagine the Wolverines getting bumped up to No. 5? Absolutely not. It’s just not what is projected here. In short, it’s not unreasonable to think this projection might be underselling Michigan’s potential rise.

Help Needed?

With the projection above, the last thing I wanted to hit on was where Michigan could get some help. In all likelihood, if Michigan is able to win the Big Ten as described above, the Wolverines will likely need just one or two teams to get upset above them.

So what are the games that these five teams ranked above Michigan could lose that wouldn’t allow other teams to pass the Wolverines?

Remember, though we’ve largely focused on the teams above Michigan, don’t forget that there are also teams behind the Wolverines in play as well. As such, assuming a team like Florida beats Alabama instead of losing isn’t necessarily good news because the Gators would likely then just stay above the Wolverines. With that in mind, here are the “help” games.

Michigan’s End of Season Help Games:

Clemson

Wake Forest
@ South Carolina
ACC Championship Game*

Alabama

Charleston Southern
@ Auburn
SEC Championship Game*

Notre Dame

Boston College
@ Stanford*

Oklahoma

@ Oklahoma State*
TCU*

Baylor

@ Oklahoma State*
@ TCU*
Texas

* - indicates games that may be helpful.

Unfortunately, there are only six games for the teams ranked above Michigan that would undoubtedly be helpful. The rough news is that four of these games come against Clemson and Alabama - both seem to be the least likely to go down in shocking fashion - and just two of these six games come on the road.

Needless to say, Michigan probably needs some help to … help it’s help. Yes, that sounds confusing, but simply put, the Wolverines need teams like Baylor, Florida, North Carolina, Stanford, and Utah to blow games against weaker teams in the coming weeks to allow them to be able to beat the top teams at the end of the year.

For example, if Baylor loses to Texas, there is no way on Earth the Bears are staying ranked above Michigan. That means if Baylor beats Oklahoma and TCU, it could only help Michigan. Additionally, if a team like North Carolina lost to North Carolina State, the Tar Heels could knock off Clemson in the ACC Championship game and only help Michigan.

Look, it’s probably unreasonable to think a team like Baylor is going to lose to Texas or that Clemson and Alabama are going to be upset as massive favorites at home, but the point is that there are some reasonable “help” game on the table for the Wolverines.

In fact, if Michigan can get a triangle loss scenario out of Notre Dame, Stanford, and Utah and is able to move past Baylor in the rankings, that’s all the Wolverines might need. That scenario would take Utah losing to UCLA or Colorado, Stanford beating Notre Dame, and Utah beating Stanford. That really isn’t that far of a reach and that alone could set things up.

Overall

There’s no debating that Michigan has its work cut out to even get into Playoff consideration, but the national media’s reluctance to even entertain the idea of the Wolverines making the top four just doesn’t add up when the scenarios get broken down.

Will the Wolverines need help? Absolutely.

Are there even any guarantees Michigan can win out? No way.

But is there a reasonable path to the Playoff? You bet.

It’s certainly not time for Michigan fans to even consider purchasing Playoff tickets just yet, but the fact is that there is still hope for the Wolverines. And if Jim Harbaugh can get his team on track, this could be quite an ending in Ann Arbor when all is said and done.

Comprehensive 2014-15 Big Ten Basketball Preview

2014-11-16T13:44:00.000-05:00

Article composed for BTPowerhouse of SBNation featuring a comprehensive preview of the 2014-2015 college basketball season and particularly, the Big Ten conference. The preview includes breakdowns for every Big Ten team including roster and recruiting breakdowns.

It's FINALLY here. BT Powerhouse's 2014-15 Big Ten basketball preview! Read it here pic.twitter.com/BkOmPg9fMM http://t.co/EatK9wfREb
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) November 5, 2014

My Column: From Top To Bottom, The Big Ten Is The Best Basketball Conference

2014-10-30T14:18:00.001-04:00

Article composed for BTPowerhouse of SBNation addressing the conference strength of the Big Ten in college basketball.

My Column: From Top To Bottom, The Big Ten Is The Best Basketball Conference in America. http://t.co/PD5xJL5DS6
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) October 27, 2014

Target Spotlight: Jaylen Brown

2014-10-30T11:32:00.000-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports breaking down the skillset of 2015 Michigan target Jaylen Brown. Brown is rated as a 5-star recruit and as a small forward.

I took a look at 5-star Michigan target Jaylen Brown this morning. In short, he good. http://t.co/3XNnVnDnOM via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) October 30, 2014

My Column: Big Ten Recommendations A Positive Step For The Conference

2014-10-01T21:28:00.001-04:00

An article composed for BTPowerhouse of SBNation looking at the impact of the Big Ten conference's new recommendations for the NCAA.

My Column: Big Ten Recommendations A Positive Step For The Conference. http://t.co/0jwnt4fMsN
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) October 2, 2014

Who Can Be The X-Factor For Michigan Basketball In 2014-2015?

2014-10-01T21:24:00.001-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports looking at which player can be the x-factor for Michigan basketball in 2014-15.

Michigan Basketball: Who Can Be The X-Factor? http://t.co/IVTmCABCCC via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) October 1, 2014

Target Spotlight: Josh Langford

2014-09-24T11:59:00.000-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports looking at 2016 combo guard and Michigan target Josh Langford and how he will likely fit in with the Wolverines.

Michigan Target Spotlight: Josh Langford. http://t.co/7x4khEPPi8 via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) September 24, 2014

Big Ten Basketball Season Predictions: Michigan 2nd

2014-09-07T12:42:00.001-04:00

Here are my Big Ten basketball season predictions. There are some pretty interesting picks on here in what should be an absolutely loaded conference yet again.

My (Early) B1G Predictions: 1-WIS 2-MICH 3-OSU 4-NEB 5-ILL 6-MSU 7-IU 8-IOWA 9-MINN 10-MARY 11-NW 12-PU 13-PSU 14-RU
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) September 7, 2014

Five Impressions From Michigan's Italy Trip

2014-08-28T13:23:00.001-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports looking at how Michigan's team performed on their international trip to Italy and some impressions from the trip.

Five Impressions From Michigan's Italy Trip. http://t.co/yBlDNrPd4O | #GoBlue
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) August 28, 2014

Target Spotlight: Duncan Robinson

2014-08-02T10:13:00.000-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247sports looking at potential Michigan transfer Duncan Robinson, his skill set, and how he might fit in with the Wolverines.

Michigan will host potential transfer Duncan Robinson. Here's my breakdown - http://t.co/96Gk80S6sd
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) August 2, 2014

College Basketball Rivalries: Michigan vs. Ohio State - Status Check

2014-07-26T11:15:00.000-04:00

An article composed for BTPowerhouse of SBNation looking at the rivalry between Michigan basketball and Ohio State basketball and where it might be headed.

College Basketball Rivalries: Michigan vs. Ohio State - Status Check http://t.co/npzQ39WOwr
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) July 26, 2014

Could Mark Donnal Be An Upgrade For Michigan?

2014-07-20T17:52:00.001-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports looking at whether Mark Donnal could actually be an upgrade at the center position for Michigan basketball next season.

My breakdown on Mark Donnal and whether he can actually improve the center position for Michigan - http://t.co/RSFPSThj5F via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) July 17, 2014

Could This Year's Michigan Be Last Year's Indiana? Big Ten Champs To No Postseason?

2014-07-09T22:29:00.002-04:00

An article composed for BTPowerhouse of SBNation looking at whether Michigan's 2014-15 squad could be in position to replicate 2013-14 Indiana's season.

Could Michigan potentially miss the NCAA Tournament next season? Read here - http://t.co/p96VmCfvJX #Michigan #GoBlue
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) July 7, 2014

Player Review: Max Bielfeldt

2014-06-02T22:01:00.001-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports breaking down true freshman Derrick Walton's first season at Michigan and a look ahead at what he could do next season.

Player Review: Max Bielfeldt http://t.co/CqsFgCULCy via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) June 3, 2014

Big Ten Conspiracies: How The NCAA & SEC Ruined Michigan's 2014-2015 Season

2014-05-09T09:44:00.002-04:00

A nice little joke piece looking at a conspiracy about Michigan basketball. FYI, not serious.

Big Ten Conspiracies: How The NCAA Ruined Michigan's 2014-2015 Season (Satire) http://t.co/z98S8vjDUT
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) May 8, 2014

Big Ten Players On The 2014 NBA Draft Combine List

2014-05-09T09:42:00.000-04:00

A piece composed for BTPowerhouse of SBNation looking at which Big Ten players were invited to the 2014 NBA Draft Combine.

Big Ten Players On The 2014 NBA Draft Combine List http://t.co/QxCb71sMHr
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) May 8, 2014

Season Review & Breakdown: Derrick Walton

2014-05-09T09:36:00.000-04:00

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports breaking down true freshman Derrick Walton's first season at Michigan and a look ahead at what he could do next season.

My breakdown on Derrick Walton's freshman season and what to expect next year - http://t.co/pEMsNkIHxo #Michigan #GoBlue
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) May 8, 2014

2014 Michigan Commit Spotlight: Aubrey Dawkins (SG)

2014-04-28T17:41:00.000-04:00

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

A piece composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports analyzing the recent commitment of Aubrey Dawkins to Michigan's 2014 recruiting class.

Commit Spotlight: Aubrey Dawkins http://t.co/aqolMYkXPB #Michigan #GoBlue
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 28, 2014

Early Look: Esa Ahmad

2014-04-11T12:54:00.001-04:00

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

A piece composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports breaking down the strengths, weakness, and recruitment of 2015 Michigan target Esa Ahmad.

Early Look: Esa Ahmad http://t.co/Fsojaa9db1 via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 11, 2014

Jon Horford Transfer Thoughts

2014-04-11T10:06:00.002-04:00

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

A piece composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports analyzing the transfer announcement of Michigan basketball player Jon Horford and its impact on the Michigan roster.

Jon Horford Transfer Thoughts http://t.co/VBMCVNI9SM via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 11, 2014

Michigan Among "Hardest Working" Schools For 5* Tyus Battle

2014-04-10T12:45:00.000-04:00

A nice little bit of recruiting information:

Michigan Among "Hardest Working" Schools For 5* Tyus Battle http://t.co/XxbNaRtcgd via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 10, 2014

Report: Nik Stauskas To Enter NBA Draft (Rejected By Stauskas)

2014-04-10T12:43:00.003-04:00

Clearly some massive news either way:

UPDATED - Report: Nik Stauskas To Enter NBA Draft (Rejected By Stauskas) http://t.co/wABVvYk4wq via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 10, 2014

Michigan's Worst Case Scenario - What If GR3, McGary, And Stauskas Leave?

2014-04-10T12:39:00.000-04:00

Check out the full breakdown:

Michigan's Worst Case Scenario http://t.co/uSYglcI0YI via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 10, 2014

Cool Links

2014-04-08T13:45:00.000-04:00

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Here are some cool links to stories of interest:

How did the Big Ten fair in the NCAA Tournament this year? http://t.co/rKe3RJNzbF via @BTpowerhouse
— BT Powerhouse (@BTpowerhouse) April 8, 2014

College Basketball Way Too Early Top 25 ... For 2035 http://t.co/xzjGNb0XQH
— BT Powerhouse (@BTpowerhouse) April 8, 2014

NBA Draft Breakdown: Glenn Robinson III - Position, Strengths, and Weaknesses http://t.co/qdGwLveXub
— BT Powerhouse (@BTpowerhouse) April 8, 2014

Caris LeVert Projected #4 Overall In 2015 NBA Mock Draft

2014-04-08T11:07:00.003-04:00

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Check out the story below:

Caris LeVert is now projected to be drafted #4 overall(!!!) by http://t.co/zc2Mxy4u5V for the 2015 NBA Draft - http://t.co/eQakTllom4
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 8, 2014

Caris LeVert Projected #4 Overall In 2015 NBA Mock Draft