Hold'em Heaven and Hell

2013-06-04T10:27:00.001-07:00

Wow! I had lost my link to my own blog. I feel glad to be back online. A lot has happened in 4 years, but I'll make this short. I've since joined a poker league which produces as many WSOP entries as possible, one main event prize and this year 10 smaller prizes among a league membership of about 60 people. Last year I was 3rd in points (we assign points for tourney finishers 1-15 over 10 tournaments) and 3rd in the final event and played 1 $1500 WSOP event, and we'll just say things went bad when I committed to KK which paid off a set early. I am heading back to Las Vegas at the end of the week. This year I was 1st in league points, and a heart-breaking 2nd in the final event. What a time to run card-dead! But my $3000 prize is going to two events, a $1500 Omaha hi-lo limit tournament and a $1500 NLHE event. I'll be playing some small-ball tournaments, and i might have a little bit to report every single day.

Tournament size and structure: live table dynamics

2009-07-20T00:32:00.000-07:00

Okay, internet players, live players, whoever you are, put this in a time capsule and let aliens figure out what the hell I'm talking about, there is the two fundamental differences from the internet tournament and the live tournament: hand speed and the information derived from human interaction. When I play steadily in internet form, if I'm tuned into the table I can get "tells" based on tendencies and little things like delay time to clue me in on the "oh my god my hand is huge" pause/check vs the "oh my god that flop missed me, shot round the moon and landed in the lap of my opponent" pause/check. Very subtle to tell that online. So easy in a live setting. Screw Caro's book of tells (haven't read it, I'm sure it's excellent) all I can say is you still have to pay attention an get feel for all your opponents. You're not in the hand, so what, you are watching your opponents to see how they handle situations, because you'll be playing them.

What's the point? Live play takes twice as long per hand to play, and your job, whether in the hand or out of the hand is to pay attention to that much more information. I was to steal the blinds from the guy I KNOW will only push back with a real hand, or respects my raises, and not someone who is a big wild gambler, or a huge stack who can play any two playable cards in raised pots.

And we all want to be that huge stack who can afford the hands that amount to a raise of 1/5 of the stacks of your opponents, see a flop, and force the guy to commit his chips if you hit, right? How do be get to be that guy? So we can continue to play a game of a wide variety of hands, afford some mistakes, and force or opponents to commit all their chips?

The answer lies in the early play. The blinds are cheap, you need to play a wide variety of hands in reasonable situations, call the odd raise in the right measure, etc.

If you can play your whole game when the blinds are big enough that one raised pot commits chips of others, you have a huge advantage. It is BIGGER live for this very reason: live play takes 4x the concentration level per hand of play basically. more than twice the info played at 1/2 speed.

The standard $5=20 buy in in an online game at my site is 1500 starting chips with 5/10 blinds and 12 minute intervals. A table moving at a good clip is 60 hands/ minutes, slow table might be 40 hands/minute. I like to be tripled up in an hour, and need to be doubled up. starting chips or less is a misery, so thats 3000-4500 chips at 50/100.

The $200 buy in I do on the occasional weekend at the casino has a nearly identical structure, 7500 chips starting at 25/30 levels. it is 30 minutes a level. A very fast table can sometimes get through from BB to BB 10 handed in 15 minues, but 20 or a bit longer is typical if the dealer is slow or the players play slow (and not inordinately slow, just a reasonable time to make a big decision, as opposed to bang-bang-bang). But level 6, 150 / 300 with 25 ante, is after 150 minutes, not 60. Its tiring. because its tiring, the short stacks are getting frustrated. They are bitching and complaining. You can hear them mumble, and complain, and watch them show disgust at their cards. You can't see that on line, and its not as big a factor on line. There is much less money invested, there is no math required, and I've bought into another tourney already since I will be waiting for ever to make a single move.

Fatigue and impatience (happens to me too) means they will push with AQ in a terrible situation because its the best cards they've seen for an hour (Ive done this myself after 8 hours in $1000 buy in knowing full well the player I knew well had raised with a better hand). They will fail to manage the pot with JJ and get in a pot committed situation, and put the rest of the chips in post flop with AQ3 for a board AS A CALL. GO all in with AJ from the middle and hope there is not a better hand waiting out there.

Big stacks make bigger stacks reading and exploiting these situations. You rake them in and the people around you say "the rich get richer" and wonder how its done. If my read is perfect and can afford to lose, I should win in 70% of those sitations. Last wednesday I called an all-in with 66 from the BB. everyone limped, short stack said "screw it" pushed, I had been right beside him, heard him moaning about his stack size, read the situation well. If he had two overs, the series of limps told me higher cards were taken, so a "coin flip" with AK was seriously in my favour. Turns out he had 44, and lost, and crumbled about how this always happens to him. Sound familiar. Making the sick call with 44 makes a lot more chips than the desperate all-in that it only takes a deep stack with cajones to collapse. I wasn't that deep stacked, but the situation was very good for a lower pair. I can and will do this when I have the chips and short stack moves. A pair is huge in a short-handed game, like busting #5 from the final table. THOSE are the obligatory calls, not the 3:1 because the short stack is 5000 and the BB you;re in is 1500 but you have 84 off-suit. Junk vs junk really has no business in poker all in as seen on TV. PHil Gordon Nonsense. Last wednesday, along those lines for stacks and blinds, I have A2 suited, the BB, and 30K in chips, and he pushed from middle position. He had the best hand he would see in the next three, and I had the worst ace in the deck. I'm at best two random cards vs each other, and very likely up against A6 or better. Folded instantly.

So how do you get to be a big stack in the first 6 levels so you can do this? One is play all you playable cards in playable situations. J9 in the BB against a small raise (flopped the nut straight, checked, let him catch is Q on the turn, bet 2/3 pot, watch him re-raise me: he will eventually fold AQ), suited connectors, same situation, same price flopped trips and watched the a bet and a call (flush draw, he would show) and then check raised for a good stack.

Those hands were all just good grinds worth 1500 chips here and 2500 there. Yep, you do have to hit hands or be a great bluffer, but these are times of the tourney where people can afford to fold, so be very right and bluff very very smart if you want to bluff a lot in tournaments. It can work well in tournaments, but I exploit those guys who bet too much too, to make a big stack. If I know a guy will raise me just because of position, I will bet weak to entice it, let him throw too much in, and check raise him. I rarely just call, because the next card could be the lucky stupid card that made his 33 into 333, and I want the fold more: a bluffer can't call all in.

And gamble. yesterday , $220 game, I made good grinding in first 4 levels, turned 7500 into 14000. under the gun, I have 89 hearts. I limp in. Game's deep enough that we are still seeing limped in pots, so off I go. Book SAYS this is a bad hand in early position. BOOK doesn't say all that I said about how to play well in early positions, so read away. I have chips, prospect of cheap flop is good, this is a good starting hand. Limp in.

Man beside me I know well. Played with him many times. Older guy, likes his cash games too, and can often just be too aggressive. Today he is playing a more varied game, but he likes to talk and he's not a tough read.

He raises to 700 from the limped 300. There is no action behind at all, and 400 more is a perfect price for these cards. He has also played KK craftily earlier (JJ overestimated his hand by about a million, so we all saw it) and demeanour says he has a strong hand. Its just gut. read earlier blogs for good examples of putting people on KK and AA, and AK through their demeanours. Experience is the best guide. These are amateurs who learned online like you, remember. Not pros with ice in their veins. Human beings give of heat, vibration, electricity.

The flop is insanity. J 7 5. The J and 7 are hearts. ANY 10, 6, or heart make me a huge hand. A flush draw and a gut shot are enough to go nuts over. This is the double belly buster kind. Flop looks like crap! You can't see the straight draw even though 89 is a legitimate poker hand. You might see the flush draw.

It doesn't matter what my opponent sees, he has a big hand. I slow down to try and hit this, he will hammer the pot with his chips if he clues into a draw. there is only 2059 in the pot, he has 5000+ behind. If I check, it because I am going to lay down a 15 out hand that might even be able to pair and beat AQ (6 more outs for 21. That's 2/5 of the deck and I get to see 2, not 1 card to make it)

As you know who have read before this lenghty deliberation I have discussed is about 5 seconds of thinking in reality. Sorry, 8 seconds. 3 were spent confirming I had both ends of the straight draw.

The answer was simple. Take his move away. He's 60% to call. My hand is 50% to beat JJJ here (well, 45%, but he doesn't have JJ! NOBODY raises JJ that small! See my many blogs discussing early limp and minraise traps with monsters to attract action). Gut said a big hand, but a hand in need of a great deal of protection. He wants me to hit a flop and be bigger.

He instacalls and flips KK, confirming my gut. Just a vibe man. Be there and feel it. If you never get that vibe you will be forever pushing your short stack with 44 or 77 and wondering how he called with 66 or QK, as the case may be (both in the same tournament wednesday, btw) Sisyphus and the rock. Poker hell is loving the game and never learing how to take it to the next level, never better than final 20, just making the money, etc.

two tiny black cards. I didn't hit. But I played to win, and winning his 6000 chips means that bigger stack in relation to the blinds, that much time and hands to play before the game resorts to all-ins and calls preflop only, and the chips to be able to put a guy on a small pair and call QJ thinking its good.

Just a quick comment to understand HOW 66 was a good call and why QJ may or may NOT be a good call. When there are limpers and other interested players (clearly folding hands in the margins) coming in or barely folding, they are holding suited A-rag, Q10, KJ, K10 A9, A10, sometimes AJ, especially as the price goes up. QJ not a good call if 3 people limped in and a 4th considered it. your outs got folded. CONVERSELY my 66 is that much better in that pot with interest, because it doesn't need to hit, my opponent likely does pushing his A9 to AK, QK, JK, QJ, etc. 44 is not my worry. A made pair much better than two semi-live overcards. I can call QJ because there was NO action except the late raiser, not even a whisper of hope, so paint is good to catch with all that junk in the muck. Next time you see 6 limpers in the pot, watch the flop be 8 high and then think of me.

Bedtime! until Next Time! I will try more than 6 months between blogs, I promise....to try....

Aggressive play; big laydowns; how others' bad play can hurt you

2009-01-25T23:58:00.000-08:00

Hey again.

I'm currently sulking over being victimized by someone else's terrible play, so while I am analysing it, we might as well talk about good play too.

Let's go back to my last final table.

I had discussed my triple-up house in the last blog. As usual, big chipstacks become short ones as the blinds get bigger, and I am patient but card dead as we dead into the final 20. I had lost short stack race when K10 went all in and I had JJ in the big blind, which pretty much defined my middle tourney, along with two chopped pots. I am carefully managing my 7000 chips, having left the table of death still alive. The resulting big stacks seem to have all found themselves on the other remaining table: no one at my table has more than 10,000 in chips.

And they are tight, these players. All trying to wait for that perfect hand. An Asian lady whom I had played with earlier is in seat 10 to my seat one. She is an early aggressor: all in bets, no callers. She's trying to exploit the tightness of the rest of the table.

She's betting in to me, and she's just what I'm looking for. The first time she raises into my blind, I have AK, and instacall and race her A9. The flop is A A 5, which is fine, until the turn is another 5, and the river junk, and we split (again).

Because I have shown AK, I exploit this. I go all in with Q10 a few hands later. No takers. I get AK and do it again. No takers. I start harping at these tight players.

But I will get no takers. Except my lady.

Its come full circle now, all folding to her SB. She raises. I have A6. I push all in. She is committed and calls with K10. I win my race and finally my double up, and hold about 20k.

It is a brutal brutal table, with short stacks having to gamble. Eventually, I bring my 19k to the final table. Average would be about 30k.

one player to my immediate left was at the table of death with me. I had raised early with AJ at that table and he had gone over the top on me. I folded. I watched him play: any good showdown hand usually got this response, most often a wired pair. He had got a huge triple up after he pushed all in on a short stack with 99, and the BB instacalled with AA: he hit the 9.

So, blinds 1000/2000, early in the final table, I am in early position with QK clubs, and raise to 6000. This fellow shoves his now big stack over top of me.

And the next guy agonizes over his hand. and folds
The next guy is also in agony! and folds....

So, here I am with QK, 1/3 of my stack in the pot. Those two other players' agony told me two things: they probably folded my outs, and my all-in opponent has a pair.

I have to lay this down. Pot odds be damned. We only pay 8 so, busted is busted.

He will show his AA.

My fortune is to see AA myself the very next hand. And I just quietly limp it in. Only the SB and BB are in the pot: not my favorite scenario with the limp-trap, but it pays off. The flop is 10-high trash, and the BB goes all in. I call. He had caught a pair of threes, and pays me off. He is chip and a chair (miraculously, he will be a big stack when I bust out, but I'm not telling his story).

So now I have 35k in chips, and when another short stack goes in for 16k, I see 10 10. He's short enough he could be raising with anything. After looking to my left to see three players left, all with decent chips, I only have two viable moves here: fold or all in.

I am not in love with the price: if I'm beat I'm back to ground zero again. But I shove.

The BB will agonize, but fold (he had 99, and would have hit trips on the turn, we will learn) but 10 10 is in a fair race with AQ and holds up.

I will be chip leader until Chip-and-a-chair, who previously got survival chips with AA in the BB (2000 blind was all he had), will race his 66 against my AK and hold up. I didn't catch cards again, and will bust out in 5 after my stack dwindles due to short handedness, big blinds, and no cards, pushing my last 20k up against JJ in the BB with A10.

5th or now, what I liked about that tournament is that I can't think of a bad play I made.

So, on to this Saturday's $150+15, 5000 chip debacle. We are an hour in, the third level has just started, 75/150, and I have been patiently waiting for an opportunity, winning a few small pots just to pay for seeing few failed flops. I have 4075 in chips. To my right is a player who has recently feasted in a tilting player who over-committed QQ out of position post flop and ran smack into KK: he has 9000 chips. Lets call him Ted. To his right is a player whom I know previously but has just come to the table: he has about 8000 chips. We will call him Bill.

Ted is first to act and limps in. I have AA and bump it up to 575. Everyone folds to the Button, who calls, to Bill, who calls, and Ted, who also calls.

Ted had previously shown down AJ limped in in a similar position, so I am not surprised by the call. Bill is a pot odds player. The button call will not factor into the play, other than the preflop money he adds: we have 2375 in the pot.

The flop is 7 5 3 two diamonds. Nice flop.

Ohh, and here comes action: Bill appears to like the fop. Bill bets 1000.

Ted hesitates slightly, then just makes the call.

Okay, PM, where we at here? Did Bill just hit trips? No, something in his demeanor said no, and he didn't seem to like the call...and Ted definitely has a draw.

The shame for me here is, Bill's shitty bet gave Ted easy pot odds, and now I have only 3500 to bet 2500 over a 5375 pot. And Bill might have hit it, but I sure ain't folding AA. In I go (just a note: in reality, my mind is figuring this out a lot faster than my recreation would appear).

Okay, so Bill started out with a stupid bet, and then, when is comes back to him does something even stupider. HE JUST MAKES THE CALL. EVEN WORSE. HE MISTAKENLY PUTS IN 1000 LESS THAN HE'S SUPPOSED TO, AND I HAVE TO REMIND HIM, OFFERING UP A MASSIVE TELL OF UNCERTAINTY.

WHAT A MORON. TED'S GOT THE FLUSH DRAW DUMBASS!

Ted just makes a smooth call, putting about 13k in the pot in total.

I make a comment, "I sure hope you have each other's outs," because the last thing I want is two opponents to have live cards.

The turn is a J of hearts. And STUPID BILL checks. Ted, who appears to know how to play poker, and goes all in.

Bill folds now, and I am semi-relieved to see (no surprise) AJ diamonds. His pair is no good. I am 85% to a river.

the 5 of diamonds.

Thanks a load BILL.

In all the earlier examples, what did the player do? Protect his hand and his stack. All In.

BILL's post flop bet was bad enough: you have 10 10 on a 7 high board out of position, and you bet 1000 into 2375? A check I can see, and a bet of 1750 I can see, but 1000? Guaranteed to keep a draw in.

And, Bill, Stupido, When I went all in that was your opportunity TO PUT TED ON THAT DRAW AND PROTECT YOUR HAND!!!!!!!! Two choices, all in or fold. Flat call? outrageously stupid.

Ted committed a huge portion of his stack to that draw, but when you are 35% (or even money) to win 13000 on your 4000 investment, the IMPLIED ODDS are huge. (reminder: implied odds are what keep you in when the odds may be mediocre but the potential payoff at the end is enormous)

If Bill puts the 4000 he has over me on the flop, Ted's got to commit all but 1000 chips to a flush draw and two overcards (one of which is very dead) 6500 chip raise and my investment only 1575? Pretty early in the tournament for that kind of gamble.

Thanks Bill. Way to take out one player while crippling yourself.

The moral to this story: if you think you have the best on the flop, or pre-flop, and you're up against a short stack's all in, you'd better do two things: 1) Make damn sure you're better than another big stack; 2) if you are sure, protect it unless you flopped a house or straight flush or other ridiculous monster (see last blog).

Happy hunting! (Ima gonna shoot me up some Bill....)

Short blog to start long year: playing the players and the table

2009-01-15T00:59:00.000-08:00

Just back from my first final table of the year, a good restart to a bad 6 months of bad play, bad beats, bubble bitchings, etc. Longest dry streak ever.

Its late, so you get a taste. Here's my early triple up hand, but let's start quick with something that I put a lot of emphasis in my live game but don't talk to much about: table position.

For any casino newbies, I'll explain briefly the physical layout of a casino table. Take the pictures of my table and make it a little longer and a lot less nice. In the middle of one long side is a slight indent so the dealer can reach the felt better. The betting line is similarly proportioned to the size of the wood racetrack on mine. Seat one is to the left of the the dealer, and so forth.

Seat one and seat ten have a nice view of most of the players and no view of the players hidden by the dealer: for seat one, we are blind to seats 9 and 10, and can't see their stacks and often have to be reminded it's our turn to act. I hate seat one and seat ten for that reason.

I like seats 2 and three, and 8 and 9, because being on the edge, I have an angled view of most or all faces. It's a greater distance to the centre of the table where the flop is, but this is why I play wearing prescription sunglasses. (I find that simple polarization is the perfect tint for poker, btw) They also have a little more elbow room and room for chips. 2 and 9 are probably the best.

Today I start in seat 5 which is just across from the dealer. From seats 4 through 7, we can't see faces well in the adjacent seats. The flop is right in front of us, but we have to turn our head to see players, making it obvious where we are looking.

Here's how I used seat 5 and a huge flop to bust one player and cripple another.

I am 2nd to act. I have 3500 chips. We are second level 25-50. I have 22 and limp in. There are several callers and no raisers. The table has played a steady, predictable game playing predictable cards predictably.

The flop is JJ2 rainbow. Not only a dream flop, I am certain based on both the nature of the players and the frequency of J high flops so far someone has a J.

Check check from the blinds, 300 or so in the pot, I bet for value, 225. Seat 7 calls and seat 1 also flat calls.

Lets talk about seat 7 and seat 1 and their players.

Seat 7 is an older player. I can't see him and he can't see me. He has been steady, has grinded well and has 2000 more than me. Unflappable guy, steady post flop player who I am not particularly familiar with, but I can easily suspect the kind of hand he would limp in.

Seat 1 is Brian. Brian is a great older guy, loves the game, loves to trap, loves to gab. He is very chatty and high strung though he rarely chats up during a hand he's in. He has resorted to sunglasses and a baseball cap recently because he is aware he has tells due to his high strung nature. He also is still trying to make things happen and only has about 1700 in chips. Think of Uncle Fester without the high voice, you got Brian.

By the way both of these players flat called, I don't just suspect, I know they both have a J in their hand. I STRONGLY suspect it is the kind of mixed-paint hands people limp in with, because they are just not J7 players. Brian likes to trap, and I get a buzz off of him which is a clear tell.

I had bet out because I knew I'd get action. I really liked the action I got, because I know I'll get plenty more. I knew they were slow playing a J because there is no draw on that board, and both made a very deliberate move to flat call which is inconsistent with a wired pair lower than JJ. Their question to themselves, was call or raise, not fold, call or raise.

Seat 7 can't see me to figure why I bet out. Brian, being short, has hit his dream flop and doesn't want his prey to get away. He is tense like a cat ready to strike, which will also work to my advantage.

Turn is 5 of clubs. NO DRAW. NO PAINT. I KNOW I STILL HAVE IT GOOD AND I KNOW THEY WILL PAY ANY BET.

So I make a value bet which looks like a probe: 525. Seat 7 flat calls, and now Brian can't stand it. He throws his 900 over the top all in. I am now in a position to reraise all in, and I don't hesitate: I know seat 7 isn't folding.

But I seal the deal with a comment, as Seat 7 considers his situation. "ARE THE 5 JACKS IN THIS DECK?" I ask.

Now seat 7 has been me play connectors and small cards well in small pots I have shown down 89 off to win a hand with middle pair, for example. I have totally misrepresented to him a hand I actually never play: 10 J.

I get the call, and my reads prove perfect: Seat 7 has QJ, Brian has KJ, and I have 6 pieces of paint (possibly less, there were other limpers) and one card, or 12%. to dodge on the river. Its a 4. I rake. Instant chip leader.

I took advantage of the fact that seat 7 couldn't see me and simply made quiet bets and let him hang himself, building up a big pot so, if necessary, I can make it all about my chips by the river. Having hit the perfect turn, and Brian doing the reraising for me, all it took was that little nudge to push seat 7 over the edge too.

All you get. Night all...0

More short stack adventures: post flop play

2008-10-27T20:48:00.000-07:00

What a shame my recent blogs are all about short stack play. After winning over $10,000 in July, I have suffered my longest no-cash streak ever. The lone exception was a $1200 payout early september which paid for my season's pass for skiing. Finishing 8th in minor online tournaments does not count, nor does the 8th in a casino wednesday tournament for $10 over the buy in. My last final table of any significance saw me with AA two hands in a row, UTG and then the BB, limped in for a trap and river raise to cause the big stack to fold, and the entire profit in that hand lost when the short stack UTG limped in, three limpers followed, and I raise to put her all in and watched A10 offsuit fourflush the river. Then my JJ will fall to AA a few hands later.

More recently JJ fell to K9 and KK fell to 62.

Tonight, an hour of poker equalled 4 playable starting hands, one small pot, and 2150 in chips, blinds of 50/100, and I am in the BB.

My reads have been excellent: I have had nothing to do at the table BUT observe other players. It is a pretty raw and young table. The only older gentleman is immediately to my left, who showed down 5 3 for 2 pair in a cheap pot from the button early. Further observation of the player is that he is a pot odds player who likes to see a lot of flops, calls to many raises, but can outplay post flop when he reads weakness. I read weakness in the same situations too, like from a dapper young black man across the table who also has some post flop skills but folds like a house of cards to good bets with confidence behind them...but he is not part of this story.

Two seats further left is a thirty-something Chinese gentleman who has seen a lot of pots, and shown down nothing but wired pairs. In his first hand, a bet and three calls of 75 causes him to bet 600. I immediately put him a wired pair. He gets one caller, a very green young man who had opened the pot for 75 (blinds 25/25), and the kids beside me folds and so do I, holding a small suited ace. Been around the block to play a dry ace when a small raise flat calls anything that is so obviously a wired pair.

I do not disagree with the 600 raise here, necessarily, it is common when the blinds are cheap to protect these hands from pot-odds players. I read an interesting article contrasting the internet tourney player from the live tourney player, and I have to agree. Internet tourney players even at the $5 MTT level still play like tournament players: without a rebuy option, playing "pot odds" on raises with 87 and 10J will whittle your stack a lot more quickly and readily than folding them after trying to play then cheap. The live casino weekly tourney is full of live cash players. This raiser doesn't want 5 callers. He doesn't want a small ace in there. He doesn't want a small pair in there. That's fine, but I would rather lose a small pot here than win a small pot preflop in a manner that telegraphs the strength of my hand. Fear causes this raise, not confidence. It will come to be shown that all the aces were dead anyway, but post-flop, his raise will bear itself out. This rookie was exactly the right caller.

The flop is J J 10, and the rookie is first to act, and his hands are shaking. He is overwhelmed. He is nervous. He is in trouble and the table knows it. and he bets 1000, leaving him with only 800 chips. Now he is in trouble and is pot committed.

That was not the nervousness of a guy who flopped monstrous, I know it and our raiser knows it. He puts all his chips in quickly. The rookie looks at his chipstack, hates himself, but has to make the call, and his A10 will fall to QQ.

I know an awful lot about the raiser holding QQ already. Lets just call him PP, since he will never show down a non-pair. He will protect a big pair, he knows when his QQ is good on a JJ flop. Makes good decisions. Telegraphs big hands.

On another hand, he will make a more modest raise, get several callers, and ultimately show down 88 after the flop hit A Q 10 two clubs and got no action. On yet another, he will be last to call an all in for 575 (of 4), check to a flop of 775, and bet to protect 33 with a 2 on the turn to show the best hand . The all in had A8 and the kid beside me was the first caller, obviously with AK as we later discussed. He was right that he should have gone all in for a heads up showdown. Another rookie mistake. I learned early at the casino to NEVER flat call an affordable all in when you have a big showdown hand. We discussed these protective bets in a very recent blog.

In yet another hand, PP, in an attempt to "mix it up", still shows that same deliberation as before, but only bets 150 in late position with several 50 chip limpers. The UTG limper, the Dapper Dan I had mentioned before, limp raises to 400, and all folds to PP. We all know by now that Dapper Dan can't stand the heat. PP figures this out too, after some deliberation, and puts enough in the pot to force DD all in. DD will predictably fold.

I am sure PP had a big hand. Probably NOT a pair. It was obvious DD was playing a stunt. If PP had a PP of magnitude, he would have flat called and let DD hang himself. DD is smart enough to make a probe bet on the flop, and smart enough to fold. PP doesn't have the acting skills to show weakness and trap, so he just took it down.

More information on PP.

At the end of the table is another rookie. He knows enough to call raise when he puts in a 500 chip into 100 bets, but he is constantly looking like a deer in the headlights when it is his turn to act. He is 23 tops, doesn't look very bright, looks over-tired and overwhelmed. He has lost some chips along the way. He looks like a blond Beaver Cleaver so we will call him Sleepy Beav, or SB.

When rookie number one busted out I gave him some quick advice: his post flop bet was too big to represent the J. I will have some advise for SB by the end of this hand...

Now back to the hand. 2150 in chips, BB, blinds 50/100

my pot-odds limper on my right is UTG, and limps in,

PP is next to act, and I get the same deliberation, but again he is trying to mix it up, so he opens for 350. He knows the table well enough to know he'll get action, but, in spite of his "mix up" attempts, he even telegraphs them. I immediately get the sense he is holding a big pair. I am under the impression now he would protect a big ace. Gut is everything in this game.

Sleepy Beav, still looking lost and sleepy, and prone to pot odds calls (which is why he has less than 200 chips), makes the call. I don't recall if there was a third caller (Dapper Dan is not in this part of the story, in other words), but I see a price of 350 and then my cards of 55. No way I'm going for broke here, I just put PP on a PP! BUT I have excellent IMPLIED ODDS to see a price that I KNOW wont be re-raised. The gentleman to the left who limped in never put in the vibe of a big hand trapper, and I am confident he simply has playable cards and wants to see a flop. Me too.

IMPLIED ODDS

I rarely talk about implied odds. The "book" describes them as the prospect that your call will lead to you winning a big pot if you hit a big flop. I think I just dumbed it down to a definition even I can understand. These lessons have all been about "good" odds to double or triple up in gambling situations. And I have used these blogs not just for you but for me to reanalyze my short stack card selection and inject more gamble in my game for when I need it. In other words, If I am going to invest my tournament in a high risk situation, the ultimate reward better make the risk worthwhile.

I tend not to use the term, because I don't want you to think in terms of "pot odds" and "implied odds", I want you to actually grind out the real odds. Think through the WHOLE HAND, not just the apparent strength of your hand [OMG! AK! OMG! I just lost to 33! OMG! C(ry)OL] (Sorry, not talking internet poker here. I will use complete sentences), or to justify a "crying call", like I did playing pot limit omaha with the boys last friday, flop a set of Aces (AA in my hole cards) on a A 10 4 flop, value but the flop, see a Q on the turn, knowing the Q made my opponent a straight, then check calling $5 more knowing I'm bad from a pot that was $8 before the turn. If you KNOW you're bad, you've done your job. You don't need to pay to prove it. Satisfy yourself your read was good and move on. Similarly, playing shorthanded in a short stacked home game with big blinds and raising A8 to 800 from 100/200, it is not a good play to call off the raise to 1250 all in when you KNOW you are crushed preflop (Magus had AQ)

GOOD GAMBLES REQUIRE EXCELLENT PREFLOP READS. Unsure, don't gamble.

Here's my gamble. Here's my mistake.

The flop is 2 4 8 two clubs, and I am first to act. If you read the last few blogs in detail, you may form an opinion here, assuming that PP is in fact "mixing it up", and maybe this time he doesn't have a wired pair. If the three callers share each others high card outs, this is a GREAT FLOP for 55. The raise was enough to cause All 8 holding hands BUT 88 to fold, and I make a quick choice to risk it. I go all in. Not being greedy, just announcing "my flop, pay it all to draw out".

BUT I IMMEDIATELY REALIZE that I had read PP with a big PP. I was calling to hit a 5 on the flop, but the dry situation I was in forced my decision to risk that the read was wrong.

Sure enough, when the UTG limp/caller folds, PP is now deliberating. He is deliberating because Sleepy Beav is still in the pot. He has a pair. Its big. Its the right flop. There is something greedy about this deliberation, trying to pull Sleepy Beav in with him. In the end he simply calls the 1800, which is more than Sleepy Beav has.

Now here is where it gets odd, and here is my lesson for Sleepy Beav. He is in the tank. He is disoriented. He is confused. He doesn't know where he stands. The tank is at least 90 seconds, before he announces call.

I announce that I know I'm beat, and that PP has a big pair, and that SB has a big draw. But I'm only 1/2 right.

PP has QQ

SB has KK.

Pardon me, the flop is 8 high, there is 4900 in the pot, you have 1600 left, and you have SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT HOLDING KK?

I am not impressed by the slowroll. No shortstack folds KK in that situation. Nobody. If someone cracked my KK, they can have my chips. If PP had AA, he can have my chips.

My initial impression is this slowroll was rude and disrespectful. I say so.

The lesson is in poker manners. In spite of some comments I have made about the VALUE of riding someone you can ride towards tilt, I do not play live poker the way some sociopaths consider acceptable in internet play. Internet play is incredibly rude. The casino is full of "good luck all in" and "good game", and I am all about that. My live poker reputation is that when I am on I will kick your ass, and we will behave like gentlemen along the way. Unless I hit a situation where my wit can be used to advantage, and I tend to be subtle and clever instead of rude.

The slowroll of an all in player with a huge hand that any non-moron would instantly call is very very very uncool. There is no need to make a man (or woman) sweat his fate if his fate is known to you.

In retrospect, his intentions were not disrespectful. He was a moron. He was so overwhelmed by the casino experience he had no sense of the pot size, his stack size, the players in the pot, and he may have even forgot he's holding KK. Told that he was slowrolling, if he has the capacity to learn, perhaps he will.

KK post flop, no A on board, a call 3.5 times bigger stack? Nothing to think about. If we DID deconstruct this hand, ANY REASONABLE PLAYER should have this figured out on that flop:

The first ALL IN was WEAK. No way I try to take down the pot with a pot size
bet with a set.

PP has shown down SO MANY pairs he can only have a big PP or a big draw consistent
with his predictable image, like AK or AQ clubs.

The odds of ONE OF US hitting a set with an underpair on the flop is 11%. The
odds of us BOTH is 11% squared: 1.21% Even if I am such a good player that I KNOW
one of my opponents has a big pair and KNOW a big bet will be called with me
holding a set, (a very good play, and I have done this), this read here is
defying the probability curve. I COULD be THAT BRILLIANT, but with Sleepy holding
KK and PP calling already the MOST LIKELY READ is that ONE HAS AN OVERPAIR and the
OTHER HAS SOMETHING WORTH LESS THAN AN OVER PAIR. Because its only 11% that this
wrong. Add the statistical odds that AA is in this pot. Significantly less than
1%.

If A x clubs made a call here, it is 42-44% to beat me, less if I hold a club.
But WHO THE HELL FOLDS 56-58% the favorite with 1600 to add to 4900? NO ONE. If
the limp caller, folded an ace (pretty likely) my odds got better.

In other words, I am SO BRILLIANT a player that I can read a set here ABSOLUTELY, then fine, lay down KK, but when my KK is 89% TO BE GOOD HERE AND THERE IS 4500 in the pot, I am going to all in and pray I am wrong and if right I spike a K!

And one thing Sleepy Beav knows, is that he's not brilliant.

My move was not brilliant either. I knew I was wrong the second my chips went in. I didn't put Sleepy Beav on a big PP (way to sleepy), but I was DEAD ON on PP's hand, and simply forgot, or chose to forget.

There is no doubt at all that this game requires awesome skills. It also requires cards. Flop that set, and yes, I am brilliant enough to make sure I get paid. I already wrote that blog. From the BB, I weak raised with AA, got 4 callers, flopped the A for the set, check called my way through a hand with a smaller set and a flush draw for a huge pot, and no one had a clue I had a thing.

My cards are coming.

Good luck catching yours!

Even More short-stack gambling: pot odds for adults

2008-10-20T00:47:00.000-07:00

Anyone who read any of my early blogs might have read the last few and wondered why I spoke so lovingly of pot odds. Didn't I once describe pot-odds analysis as justifying your first mistake with another?

Aha! But I spoke of last blog's 3x AK raiser as having made mistakes because of the odds she was offering, a FAR MORE important issue than the Phil Gordonian pot odds calls which occur when the big stack bully raises to 10,000 with K9 with blinds of 1500/3000, and the stack with 15,000 protects his sb by going all in. Yes, its only 5,000 more into A 28,000 chip pot. But 10,000 of those chips are what you put in bad! Big Stack Bullies have to play smart power poker. Tight players with medium stacks will give up blinds to raises of 3-3.5 x the blinds when you can open the pot from a later position. Anyone looking to blind steal should seriously consider 5th, 6th and 7th position steals rather than cut off and button steals. They are far less obvious as steals, cost the same, and have similar effect. Keep in mind that late position players still have people to act behind them. They are far more likely to flat call than reraise, and if you were attacking the blinds of the right kinds of players, they will still fold rather than play, even with odds, out of position in a raised, medium sized pot with a raiser and a caller. Big stacks will easily make the pot odds call, and, as I have discussed in the last two blogs, a well schooled short stack may correctly read his situation correctly: the raiser has the weakest hand, the caller needs a flop, both have paint or painted ace, and my 78 hearts may very well be 38% here. If he has enough chips to induce a fold, he goes all in and may very well steal the whole pot: an effective double up at minimal risk (given the weakness shown by the raiser and caller) or triple up gamble if the raiser and caller both have high Aces and one is big enough to call.

VERY IMPORTANT to have those reads locked down to make these moves. I will remind of the formula:

- Pay attention to every player on every hand as the play unfolds towards you:
- Make particular note of every player seriously considering a play: these
marginal hands are often outs for larger raising hands:
- The manner in which a raiser raises (automatic, deliberate, calculated,
uncertain) should be first clues to what he holds:
- The manner in which the raiser reacts to anyone considering a play are next clues:
- Any callers must be carefully scutinized for possible traps or genuine "need to
see the flop" weakness:
- Ask any players in the pot for a chip count BEFORE LOOKING AT YOUR CARDS so you
can read them, and they can't read you:
- NEVER make an automove of your chips all in (see point three) when you see an AK
or a 88 or other "OMG finally a hand" hands. Use this opportunity to probe
further (like in point 4). Here's a trick: PRETEND to look at your cards, then
probe for reaction by contemplating the call or the pot or your stack size.

Any short stack needs to understand that opportunities include opportunities to steal raised pots. If you can stare down a cut -off raise that was slow, deliberate, and careful by a cautious player and than look down at A3 spades and autopush, knowing he both has you beat and that he will fold, you are fearless. You will succeed.

FEARLESS

I'm short stacked, I have 6x the blinds, the chip leader has be covered 10 to 1, I am gone. Why be scared? You have already lost. You can only move up or go home.

THIS IS WHY POT ODDS IS A CRUCIAL FACTOR

Well calculated gambles may be the only solution for the short stack. A6 is NEVER a hand for a well calculated gamble! THIS IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT: LIVE CARDS. If A6 is a bad gamble, why raise with it? The 10 6 you had the hand prior, in better position, HAD BETTER ODDS AGAINST A CALLER and IS JUST AS GOOD TO STEAL WITH.

The short stack HAS TO GAMBLE SMART.

Here is an amazing short stack recovery story. I probably told it before, but it is worth retelling. With 30 people left, blinds are 500-1000 and I am UTG and holding 3000 chips.

I GO ALL IN BLIND. Why? Because I need the blinds to be in the pot. My stack can't wait to be in the BB, when I am pot committed anyway, but 1000 of the chips belong to me, not somewhat else. I have no choice but to play these cards. They happen to be 83. I get protection from AK, and I catch but he does not.

7500 CHIPS

Now the table knows I am crazy, so the table folds to the blinds. SB makes a flat call. I have 83. I check. The flop is trash, but contains a 8 or 3 (I don't remember). The SB bets about 2500. I can go all in for 4000 more, and do so. He was bluffing. He folds.

I will fold the SB next hand

11000 chips

I am now on the button. A player in early position who has made strange plays in strange positions makes a small raise. A young woman who I know will only play good hands makes a raise on him (she also knows hes a weak raiser). It then folds to me. I have AQ. I push all in. the SB is a very short stack: he has odds to more than quadruple: he's an instacall (and good for him). Surprisingly, the original raiser with crap makes the call, and we have 4 people all in. In order of betting: Q 10; 10 10; A Q (me); K9. K9 will catch his nine, but I will catch my Q on the river. The original raiser earns a small side pot between him and 10 10. The pot will take about 5 minutes to sort out, but ultimately the dealer ships me

39,000 chips

TWO HANDS LATER, the same raiser from the last hand goes all in with his last 6000 chips. He will get protection from a big stack: 22,000. All folds to me and I have AK. There is some, but little, hesitation. ALL IN. The original raiser is hating himself at the moment, but jeez, he has 22,000 into a pot which has gone through the roof 70,000 chips in the pot and 17,000 to call. Phil Gordon aside, chips in bad and all, how can anyone not protect that initial bad investment? And pray I have JJ and his AQ is good? It isn't. I catch my K to settle all.

86,000 CHIPS. 7 HANDS.

Every gamble was the right move, right odds, every gamble was still a gamble.

FEARLESS = CHIP LEADER.

Pot odds are used to determine whether a gamble is a good risk. Period. Those odds need to be accurately calculated BEFORE YOU PUT IN YOUR FIRST CHIP. It NEVER JUSTIFIES a bad initial move.

YOU'RE SHORT STACKED

YOU HAVE ONE MOVE

YOU HAVE TO MAKE IT COUNT.

So, I have criticized the AQ for over protecting a short stack call. I have criticized AK for making a greedy, underwhelming raise which invited a call and really invited more chips to enter the pot: preflop or post flop, it doesn't matter.

Shit, if I got a limper or two from short stacks and I have AK, I want them to make a call for ALL their chips. Have them put their tournament on the line. Why not bet accordingly? 3x the blinds almost guarantees the action you didn't want, and the short stack is so committed by calling, he might as well shove before the flop. I wll often, even to open the pot, holding a big stack an a big slick, make a preflop bet that equals the biggest short stack I want to play with. It is too much for another big stack to call with without a huge hand. It is designed for ONE CALLER ONLY. I AM CONTENT WITH THE STEAL. My hand is protected.

AQ's error? Not so much as the quality of his hand, as the possibility, raising an all in so early in position, that the weakness of his AQ as a showdown hand might be exposed and lead to the wrong action. Sometimes AQ can and should be a flat-calling hand: fact of the matter is, that flat call looks stronger than the big protection bet, because it shows some FEARLESSNESS. And I might flat call AK there too and manage my odds better by looking at a flop, rather than push all in.

One last recent example. I have AK in early position (blinds 100-200) and a modest stack of 4500. Dying for a double up. I raise to 800. The person to my left raises me to 1800. The table folds, and I go all-in. He makes a crying call with QQ, and says he made a mistake. He should have managed the pot. He let the pot get out of hand. I hit my A on the flop. He flat calls with QQ, he sees that A, I make 1000 chips not 4800. Damn right he made a mistake. I was a short stack: he was offering me a double up opportunity by raising. Fact of the matter is, QQ is still a pretty strong hand in a three way or 4 way RAISED pot, given that callers will have duplicates of Aces and Kings and the flop is likely dead.

Sounds like I am move onto another lesson....later.

More short stack lightning

2008-10-15T23:30:00.000-07:00

Let's face it. Getting short stacked really sucks. You can't afford to see flops or play post flop. Every raise has to be a go hand and everyone knows it: you either get no action or the wrong kind of action. The reality is, unless you see KK or AA in the BB, you will have to gamble in the rights spots and pray.

I last talked about small pairs, usually with good position.

Today I had the "pleasure" of watching my stack disappear to fruitless flops over the first hour, and down from 2500 to 1500 chips and 50-100 blinds. Not many options, but I had to play. I had to play play able cards in acceptable cicumstances.

My first double up:

I have 1625 in chips. I am first to act, I have K9 diamonds. I LOVE his hand. I am in love with a mean mistreata. Its a sickness. I usually follow the doctor's advice and fold this marginal hand, except in deep position and real cheap. But its playable, and I want to play it.

The table is tight. Only one knockout in an hour. Players are all playing conservatively. Predictably. Some are beginning to exploit the tightness of the table and steal small pots, but I don't have a stack capable of setting an uncallable price, and a bad bluff will knock me out. I need to get in a fair race for all the chips.

There are two callers ahead of my initial limp in, then a short stack takes a quick glance at his cards and moves all in.

This "instant all-in" is easy to read. It was thoughtless. It announced his hand loudly. "I have a big hand, but I can't trap with it and I don't want a call". Small pairs are very often in this category. I once made a sick but affordable call against an all-in short stack with QJ and beat out 66 late in a tourney, after appropriate deliberation and probes for information. AK and AQ and AJ are very often in this category. Sometimes 10 10 and JJ are too, but just as often, they are hands which lead to some deliberation. small pairs are semi-bluff steals/gambles. the higher pairs have trapping capabilities in post flop play and tend to lead to at least a pause before action.

The limps are a tell too. QJ, 10J, KJ, A10, are all limper hands. None are calling hands at THIS table. Only one has me dominated, and I am basically next to act (after the blinds) and I know these are limp hands calling in the middle. I have been observant and it is clear these people need to see a cheap flop and aren't trapping.

QK and the like are not limpers. Most players will raise QK out of middle position to show some strength, help close the hand to gain position, and to get more information on the limpers.

The only hands which contain a 9 among these limpers would be A9 (pretty tough to call here with A9 to an all in raise, especially this table) and connectors, and K9 dominates these hands. The tightness of the table, and the shortness of every stack resulting from it, makes it pretty pricy to play a 910 from the middle position. These players play correctly.

In other words, in this situation, K9 is likely got two live cards, an even race against the likely low pair, and almost even against the likely A high hand. A9 can also make this all in move, but not instant automove like this. The high ace could be in real trouble if the kicker's outs were among the limp ins.

There is an excellent risk that my hand has run into AK, but we are talking about gambling, not playing sure things here.

I am correct that I am up against a fair or good gamble, and commit the rest of my chips. I am racing AQ.

Clearly my cards are live. I get two 9's on the flop: a K on the river. AQ completely whiffed.

THE VERY NEXT HAND, I am in the BB. There are three limpers ahead of me. the SB is also a short stack. He is, just like in the hand before, AN INSTANT ALL IN. He has about 1100 chips. I have 66 but I don't have "I just got these chips" syndrome. I need to make up for lost time with no flops at a tight table. The read is as instant as the SB's chip push and I look down at 66. It is about a 3 second deliberation before I protect my cards and push all in as well.

I get a lot of respect on this move. They assume the SB ran into a monster. Not quite. But it will be a postflop monster.

The flop is

A

A

6

Two full houses in consecutive hands. The SB has a draw, but very lucky even his 3+ outs is crippled, as a limper (or 2) could have easily folded a Q. The turn is a 9, so a Q or 9 gives him a better full house, but really only the 9 is live and its three outs with a river to go. its a 6.

That's all well and good, but this is the best example of the night. A FANTASTIC shortstacked play.

This fellow has had the same experience as I preluck, and the blinds are 100/200. He has only 1200 chips. He has limped in from middle position. A lady to my right raises to 600. She is VERY readable. She has a good hand, but a not a huge hand. I am in the SB and have AJ. I want to see a flop, and 500 more to see if I catch a J isn't bad. Instinctively, BTW, that is my thought: catch a J, not catch an A. My reads are good tonight it will turn out.

The short stack limper does something which surprises me, but shouldn't have. He pushes the rest of his chips in. 1000 plus change more.

Here is an interesting little sidebar. There is a rule which I don't particularly like which says if you raise, and a short stack cannot complete a proper reraise when he goes all in (a proper raise being equal to the first raise) then the original raiser and everyone else intending to call are limited to a call.

Here, the raise to 600, which is a raise of 400, allowed the short stack reraise of just over 400 to leave the original raiser's option open. I don't know if she made this bet 600 to satisfy this rule (and if so, that is the mark of a very experienced player, and she might be, in spite of her linear approach to the game)

She is an instant all in to the reraise. ^This move tends to confirm my original instinctive read. This is an AK move. Its not a KK move or an AA move. One protects a hand with AK, and continues to seek a sidepot holding a huge pair.

I know I'm gambling, but, hey, my last two races produced full houses. I have a new marker and I want to test its luck. She made me fold AJ just two hands earlier. I still am in short stack gamble mode. This hand would have the same instructive value had I folded, but I gamble my AJ and she will show her AK.

The short stack has 87 of hearts. Little suited connectors like these have the best odds against big pairs (about 24% to hit straight, flush, or 2 pair) and I really like this move. AT WORST he is looking at a triple up (or close to if I fold) against a big pair, and those odds aren't two off his 24% chances. At best he has read the raise and call correctly, and he is up against two high Aces with live cards. Fact of the matter is, the typical situation here is one caller, not two, as one protects and the other folds, but I am being a donkey. All he has to do is hit a pair and dodge, typically, two A's and possibly three K's, but in this case, my three live J's. He is 30% to hit a a pair in 5 cards, those 8 outs representing 40% to bust his pair: if I fold, its a 25% factor. His approximately 1 in 3 (rounded generously) to triple up are still a gamble, but he has no gamble left and he had to make a move somewhere. We can round generously because the flush and straight opportunities are live two. My hand calculator puts 78 hearts at a WHOPPING 38% to beat AJ and AK in a full race. An optimist would call that a coinflip! In a three way pot! To triple up! No wonder he pushed with such delight. The AK has almost identical odds to win. You can figure where my 3 outer stands.

He will flop 9 6 7. A pair and open ended straight. He will catch the straight on the turn for the check mark. She will pick up a sidepot which realizes a meager net gain of about 1000 chips.

She did not expect me or intend me to call when she went all in. She wanted to race the short stack with AK. But the short stack read his situation better than she did. The price was good in the end, but my flat call out of position on her raise needed to tell her that her AK was not as strong has it could be. Well behind a small pair who had limped in the middle to test his situation. Certainly, her hand had reasonable odds of success for the price, and she correctly protected the hand by going all in. Except for the price I was getting and the gambles I was prepared to make. Correct play has a way of making correct play players yell at me and call me names while I rake in their chips. Because it requires your opponent to play predictably and correctly lay down like their supposed to.

This is unsophisticated play, in spite of my comments on the accuracy of her bet size. "Correct" players think there are bound rules saying you can't play 87 hearts for all your chips from middle position, or raise under the gun with A10 or 77, and that you can only play looser cards from deep in position, you can't play suited junk at all (K9 diamonds included), you can't call or raise with middle pair, etc etc.

In other words, this predictable table is EXACTLY what an aspiring Pokermonster needs to home his or her reading skills and deeper gamne. "Correct" players play "correctly" because their understanding of the game is not deep. It is not cerebral. It is "BY THE BOOK" (quite literally, and literarily, and usually Brunson's "Supersystem I": read it, if you haven't, and then understand the mechanical way some players will play this game "by the book").

Part of this "correct" play is the 3x the blinds bet. IT IS A TERRIBLE BET IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES! Early position the 3xer SCREAMS BIG HAND AFRAID TO LIMP BUT LOOKING FOR ACTION and I AM A ROOKIE. Middle and late position it SCREAMS I DIDN'T WANT 5 CALLERS, BUT I HAVE GIVEN EVERY LIMPER AND THE BLINDS ODDS TO CALL and I AM A ROOKIE.

As a result the hand had just gotten completely out of control. If she made a BIG BET, she isolates the limping short stack, protects AK from all but the best (and she had the button, so there are only the blinds to concern with), and prices my AJ out, because a call commits me to it. She maintains control: no callers, or short stack isolation. Instead, the AJ call of mine gives that short stack huge odds to gamble for his short risk, and I am now invested 600 into a pot with 2300 in it, a stack of 3000 left, and I could have been calling with a small pair! This is a real failure to shift gears and understand the game as it has evolved into the rounds where the blinds force short stacks to gamble.

HERE'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE. from a $300 buy in game which didn't turn out so lucky, but is an interesting hand.

THE PLAYER TO MY LEFT is a pretty good player with a few rookie edges. Young guy. Had to be explained the "single overchip without declaration is a call" rule. He is slow and deliberate, and really looks up his opponent before making a bet in any position. He has chipped up to 30k. I am limping around with 8000, looking for good spots. Blinds are 150-300. He is UTG: I am big blind. LETS CALL HIM LEFTY

LEFTY has opened the pot with a bet of 800, not quite even 3x the blind. We started with 10k, so this is really a modest bet. HE GETS 3 CALLERS before it comes around to me. I have 300 invested, there is about 3000 in the pot, and 500 to call. K6 spades. I don't play pot odds, but how can I lay anything down for that tiny price?

You should also know that he is in seat 10 and I in seat 9. His other opponents have position but sit acorss from him. I am in his right blind spot.

Leftly likes to bet post flop, and has lots of chips.

The flop is a dream: 9 6 2 ALL SPADES. I have second nuts. I instacheck.

leftly is looking up his opponents, BUT NOT ME. He is staring them down as he compiles his bet.

Lefty makes a MASSIVE OVERBET. 3500 in pot, HE BETS 20,000. All but about 8000 of his stack.

HE HAS ANNOUNCED that I HAVE NO SPADE and I AM A ROOKIE.

He never looks at me. I relax. I don't need a poker face. I have the second nuts. Only the A high flush is going to call him, he has read all the other opponents' disgust of the flop correctly anyway, and both of us know the other three will fold. He doesn't know that, if the A spades was out there, HE HAS JUST PROTECTED MY HAND not his.

So, when it's finally my turn I instacall and remind him that he forgot to look me up.

He turns over 22. "I have outs" he says "yeah, 25%" I says. He rivers a 9. Good flop, great play, bad luck. Boat beats flush.

I walked out but he made two awful mistakes. That tiny raise in no way protected his hand or defined his opponents. It simply added size to the pot. Then he took my "pot odds" BB call for granted, and assumed I was of no concern in vastly overbetting what was for him a tiny pot. If my pot odds BB call came with a big stack attached, as it often does, he needs a 12% river or he goes from chipped to chump and out the door.

GOOD LUCK!

Tournament Survival: getting in good with "trouble hands"

2008-10-09T23:27:00.000-07:00

Well, lately its been limping, grind, and short stacking deep into tournaments. And we've all faced this situation: staring down a K10 spades or 88 and having to make that tournament defining decision: time to push or time to fold?

When all is said and done, you hope for a live K10, but you know you have to hit to win, and AK, KQ, and KJ all have you dominated. 30% is bad money, and all those hands are capable of calling depending on the player and his situation. Remember, you're short stacked and a call is a reasonable prospect given the price of poker in these crucial late rounds. If the blinds are 300-600 and I have 7000-8000 chips, my price might be too high, but if I'm down to 4000, I really have to get my cards in good.

You need to count cards every time you consider getting in. Did two people limp in, or consider limping in then fold? They probably dumped or are playing one or your live cards or straight outs QJ, JK, A10. If there are two already in the pot, K10 is probably dominated in one direction and missing straight outs in the other, and one of them will call if the price is right. Keep in mind that there are big pair limp trappers out there. Just because you're short stacked and folding and waiting no reason not to be paying full attention to the manner of a player's limp in. Early limp ins are so often traps, but the deliberate manner in the play and careful observation should at least clue you into risk. Limping in might be a better choice if you insist on seeing a flop if you can't give up the opprtunity to win.

I have found that in any sophisticated tournament situation, such as late in any live tournament, the early position limp trap is so prevalent that the players who act after and want to play their cards will limp in themselves, risking BB specials in exchange for position post flop. These good players have a great post-flop game, usually, so your choice to limp and see a flop will see a flop, but you are troubled by three things: the possible early limp trap, the possible BB special, and the superior post flop player in position. You're going to have to flop pretty big to get paid here. 20% of your stack to gamble on K10 in middle position is a bad investment as a limp in: its a worse investment as a raise all in given the same hands which coordinated with yours and would have seen a cheap flop still represent dead outs for your crappy K10, or QJ, or similar difficult hand.

The only real place for K10 is a late position steal (short stacked) or early position steal (medium stacked at a tight, preferably short (7-8 player) table, where it actually has a prospect of being the closest thing to a premium hand dealt). K10 is therefore NOT a CALLING HAND or a RAISING HAND if you can expect a call (short stacked to a limper, ex). You need a deeper stack to play it effectively. Pick a better spot if you can.

On the other hand, a small pair can be HUGE in these situations. Once again, beware of limp traps, but in a situation where there has been a RAISE and at least one CALL (particularly where you read some hesitation from the caller, or worry from the raiser after the call) you may be able to read whether two A-high hands are in ahead of you. More often than not, in these deep-tournament situations, the raiser probably had the weaker ace (say AJ) and the caller has the better AQ or AK. In other words, the most likely situation when you push all in with a pair is that the original raiser will fold (because he was already worried about the call, and the call acts last) and the caller will call you (because AQ and AK on paper (aka Phil Gordian math) look like a very good gamble on a smaller pair and a very good call on a weaker ace).

SO MUCH of this analysis depends on your observation skills and ability to read your opponents (see every other instructive blog for a million examples). You do NOT want to rumble your 66 against AA or KK who smooth called to disguise strength. Use all your weapons to test strength. Ask for a chip count.

Here's another trick, especially when you expect a slow play big hand. Ask for the count before looking at your own cards. Focus yourself on the count and the demeanour of the player as the chips are counted. I don't care if you have 84 off in the hole here, and an instant fold when you see the cards. You have done a few things for your game here:

(1) Established a good poker habit which focuses and improve your observation skills generally and gives you important observations of a player you may need to call or reraise later if not now;
(2) Generally pissed off the player, since he knows you haven't looked at your cards: hopefully, you can geta good tilt response. If it did get under his or her skin, exploit this. I am not afraid of a little table talk, if I can get into a player's head. Ex: I am playing in the usual monday game. A player I am familiar with was at my starting table, and we was bragging about being so close to a final table in the last big series. Just big table talk. He then gets on a lucky streak, and at one point his K5 off played from middle position hits 2 pair and knocks out the player in the BB who hit a BB special smaller 2 pair. He isn't playing well, he's just getting lucky. And, eventually starts paying off. At one point he is in a battle of the blinds: he had raised from the BB and the SB made the call. He will have A10, his opponent Q-rag. The flop is Q high, no Ace, no 10, and the bragger bets to a check and is called. The next card is junk, SB checks, A10 bets, SB check raises all in for now a reasonably serious price. A10 cant get off the concept of his preflop superiority, and calls and doubles up Q rag. And then he comments about how he played Q rag against a raise as being bad play. He got outplayed because he assumed he had to be called with something (any small pocket pair has him beat there too of course) and then was upset that his opponent knew Q paired no kicker was the best hand because A10 was outread and outplayed. So I see that A10 is the kind of guy who can dish it out and can't take it. So I have to respond to his comment with a comment about his K5 victory being just as loose. And was he offended! Perfect. Can dish it out, can't take it. I can put a guy like this off his game to get paid. And did.
(3) Gotten an extra look at the original raiser, who is now reacting to both the count, the player's reaction to the count, and your show of strength by acting for a count: if you see weakness, ask this player for a count too!
(4) You're making a habit of asking for a count routinely rather than only when you have a potential calling hand, so there is no special tell because you asked for a count;
(5) If you haven't seen your cards you can't give off any tells of your own.
(6) Ideally you have obtained the time and information to understand where your opponents stand, which will very much help you decide whether this is your time if you do see a calling hand in the hole.

Now, here is the most important thing: You have looked before you leapt, and now you see 88. Best hand in an hour.

PUT ON THE BRAKES IMMEDIATELY.

This is how I went from top 10 to bust out in the Coast to Coast main event in day two. It was a TIGHT,TOUGH table in day two FULL OF QUALITY STACKS. I had few hands, and was just milking 50-60k and not improving. An All-in to a small raise and call with AK. An outplay with 99 and position on a AAJ flop for a medium pot. I was over tired from the adrenaline of the day before, but still playing my game.

Two my left are two older players, late forties or so. The table seems to have picked nemeses: I have butted heads with the guy across from me (for asking for a blind count). The two players to my left have squared off. And these two. I have been watching intently. The player closest to me (L) has had position and has used it very well to bully his opponent to the right (R). They have done this 2 or three times.

In this particular hand, R has the button, L the SB, I am the BB. The play folds to R, and he raises. This is an obvious steal situation. L looks at his cards, and is clearly intent on playing sheriff. R's raise was to 6000 (1/10 of the stack), the re-raise from L to 25000. It is clear L intends to take this down preflop. But is he that strong, or just strong enough to play sheriff?

One of the problems here is that I have never seen either player showdown a hand to help establish a pattern. But this has gone on for at least 2 minutes, I have formed an impression: R is stealing, L has a big enough hand to play sheriff, but weak enough to want to take it down preflop. He is not gambling here, and does not intend to gamble.

So my impression is AJ to AK.

I look at my hole cards. I see 88 and immediately push. I'd seen enough, right?

WRONG. R folds instantly, and L only semi-reluctantly makes the call. He has 10 10.

YOU SURE DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO DO THIS ANALYSIS POST-HAND WHEN YOU WERE AMONG THE LAST 50 PLAYERS IN A $2700 BUY IN MAIN EVENT WITH 50000 CHIPS AND BLINDS OF 1000-2000!

L had about 75,000 chips. His raise made him deeply committed to the pot. I was not going to induce a fold here. I have been in this situation myself re-raising from the SB with AJ and running into the BB. A pair as big as 10 10 is a real big hand in this three-way situation. AJ would also make the call.

At best, in other words, AT VERY BEST, my 88 is up against R and L BOTH holding Ax, ONE CALLER, and a MADE HAND of mine against 5 outs (66% to win) AND GUARANTEED I am in for my tournament life on a coin flip or a handicapped coin flip.

If I deliberate my cards just a little here, I can gauge a reaction and get that more of a read. Maybe I just pick a better spot.

R will disclose he had 77. If L had folded, R was the weaker player, and a raise from me has the right effect. But my reads were all wrong, and I had an opportunity to gauge their hands a little further, the alarm goes off and I pick a better spot.

The ultimate point is this: a full and complete picture (too many people want to see a flop in a barely raised or limped in situation, and the original raiser looks concerned) should say that your pocket pair is WAY AHEAD because your opponents need to catch each others cards. I remember such a read once, where I put my QQ in against AK and AK: another time, where I called a small raise with JJ, then watched a guy seriously consider his hand (I correctly read AJ) while another raised all in (correctly read as AK), causing raiser 1 (AQ) to fold, me to recognize that JJ was WAY AHEAD ( 72% or so). He caught a K, but the other players confirmed my read was perfect. The last time, I had 99 in the BB and went all in: only AK (3x blind original raiser) called called, and I announced he had dead cards: I caught a 9 on the flop, and watch his 4 flush river pair the board so that my full house beat his flush, but without an A or K to be found anywhere.

This, my friends, is how very good players play small pairs seemingly "fearlessly" in apparent "coin-flip" situations. They have accurately read their situation: Go Ask Al: he can tell you a story about calling for all his chips with 33 against AK and AQ and tripling up.

Sick, dude.

Happy pokering.

Back to talk about...renovations?

2008-09-23T18:57:00.000-07:00

Truth be told, the month of September has only indirectly been about poker. The poker table demanded renovations! The first two pics had been conveniently selected to minimize the decrepit state of my dining room. Many hours of renovations later, hard work pays off. Third picture is my new dining room, inspired by the themes and beauty of the Crummer custom poker table.

Don't buy a Crummer custom table if you're not prepared to built a space suitable for it!

Well, I can't work three jobs. I only have one meager online $1300 prize to report so far this month, but it paid for the renovation materials and my ski pass for the winter.

The moral to this message is the same as the same and my poker message: hard work, patience, and attention to detail and the keys to success in this game and in renovations and in life. This room is a symbol of these ingredients. Time to leave the construction zone and get back into the poker zone....

More to follow as I play some satellites on the way to the BC poker championships. I also provided a free roll into a satellite as top prize in the debut game on the custom table. Hopefully, we can track Derek E's success along with mine over the next two months.

Been a while

2008-09-05T00:46:00.000-07:00

Yes, been a lazy blogger. Never did finish the Coast to Coast main event story. The bluff and suckout for a huge pot to end the night. or the bad read with 88 to end the tournament.

Since, however, that experience has improved my patience, mental stamina, and most importantly, my poker face. $10,000 in 30 days in 3 separate midlevel tournaments not so shabby. We are leading to the BC poker championships, and I promise to write....

THE REAL NEWS

THE TABLE OF TABLES

Check out Crummer Poker Tables y'all. Maybe I can figure out the pics and the link up to make it easy on you. This bad baby is 100% custom designed and made by the owner of the company...my little reminder of what poker can accomplish and what it's yet to accomplish....

Main Event $3000 part II (of....): levels 3, 4 and 5

2008-05-13T21:02:00.000-07:00

Back to the action.

I am disappointed but not dismayed at the break ending level 2. Big John and and Trailer Mouth have some nice stacks, I am among the poor with about 11,000 chips. I am not fond of being understacked at any stage of a tournament. It seriously limits my ability to speculate with interesting cards. But I had made some terrific reads, leading to good folds (calls? I wish).

When I raised 50/100 blinds to 375 with 10 10, and Trailer Mouth called with position, I put him on AK. When the flop was K garbage rainbow, I checked, and he value bet 500, I told him "the only hand I can put you on is AK", and mucked. Out of respect for the read, he confirmed it. He also told me he didn't have a clue how I played. Perfect scenario, but Trailer Mouth would actually avoid being in pots with me the rest of the day. He knew I had his number. Fact is, I told everyone else what his number was, and he confirmed it. He would play only lucky hands where people slammed into KK.

TJr will make a valiant effort to play his way out of his 2000 chip crisis point, until he runs into Trailer Mouth's KK. Say no more. Let's speak of his replacement.

He is an older guy, maybe 50, and his stack is similar to mine. He is immediately to my left. His stack, position, and newness make him a potential threat, but I will make a few plays and observations which will prove critical. Lets call him Small Ball, as that is how he plays

I have limped in with A9 for 100. We are late in level 2 (yes, this is titled levels 3 and 4, but let me set it up first). Small Ball raises to 300.

I HATE this raise. My limp in early position, and a 3x blind raise that simply invites not only my call, but every tom, dick, and harriet (no ladies at this particular table) to see a flop too. It reeks of a semi-trap, but it still invites so many drawing hands into it. I am last of say, 5 people to call.

The flop is 10 10 9. There are so many people that a 10 is an open possibility, and I am third of 6 to act. With 2 in front checking, I really want to test my pair here. I make a "stay out of trouble" bet that I hope to be consistent with a value bet with a 10: 600 into a pot of 1800.

Small Ball raises my bet to 1500. The rest of the field told, leaving me heads up to contemplate the bet. My bet has served the purpose of identifying a trap. I invite you to always make at least a small bet into a pot like this to expose the guy who wants to trap his trips. A smooth call where there is no draw is a sure tell.

This raise is not trips. Trips can't resist the greed and fears scaring off the better, because only 99 or A10 can call or raise. In a multiway pot here, J10 can't be sure he isn't outkicked by Q 10, K 10 or A 10, all very reasonable hands in this pot.

I announce my read to Small Ball and the table. "QQ or 77 I say", several times. I take my time. "No way you have the 10" I say. Am I exposing my cards with my talk? Maybe, but I think I might talk this way in a trap too, to convince a player I am weak. Really, I want to get a tell. Eventually, I will say "I can't tell which, so I have to fold", but really I did get one. My exposition of the fact I did not hold a 10 made him very comfortable with his cards. He had the overpair, not the underpair. He will confirm it. "Somewhere in the middle," he exposes. The answer is pretty much an admission he had JJ. The only other option is 88 and he was too comfortable to be sweating it with 88.

Okay, JJ = weakass raise. Noted.

Shortly after that, Small Ball will get into trouble in a hand he limped AK in with. He will lose a smallish pot that checks down to expose the hand. It is my policy when I am playing "tricky" to put myself in a position to not have to expose a trap play, buy betting small on the river, or whatever. So now I know he wants to play big hands small and tricky.

But Small Ball is not getting what he needs playing small and tricky. He will soon be a shorter stack than I, and this is how we will sit coming into level 3.

I myself want to play some tricky poker in order to maximize the ability to win a big pot to climb back to a reasonable position. I do not like the fact that 11,500 only doubles to 23,000 and remains a modest stack.

So, in a very similar situation in early position I am first to enter the pot and I hold QQ. Even though the blinds are only 75/150, I am prepared to trap, and simply complete the 150. Then things get interesting.

Small Ball announces a raise. He has the authority in his voice of a man who has found a hand to play with. He bets....ugh 500. Blech. Can this guy get out of his small ball game?

Interesting development....Big John, who is now seeing a LOT of flops because he has a LOT of chips (at least 35,000, maybe more) is in the BB and makes the weak bet call.

I am not particularly fond of this situation. I don't want a cheap ass, three way pot holding QQ, and I know Small Ball has a hand to call a raise or reraise with (but NOT AA or KK: you know I know, and if you don't, there are about 43 blogs behind this one to explain how I know: If you still have to ask, you'll never know, but at least you tried, and I thank you for reading). So I do what is generally considered a tell, a trap exposure, a reraise, to a reasonable sum, 1500. This was a VERY USEFUL BET. Small ball JUST CALLS, confirming he does not have AA or KK, because his call involves uncertainty. He has no idea what I have. Big John, still the flop monster calling station will also JUST MAKE THE CALL. He needs to see a flop, but I think its clear to him he is now hoping to catch a huge flop to check raise these needy short stacks with. Anyway, I put Small Ball on AK, which he now needs to be best hand, because his rope is thinning. He has about 8,000 left

Fine.

Flop time.

A Q 3

WOW, except for one little problem..........

ALL SPADES.

I have flopped amazing, but I will in no goddam way give up this 4500 pot which I created and I flopped to some flishy suckout ["flish" origin: mine. definition: some "fish" who will pay any amount to chase a flush and then catches it on the river; also describes the result of a a flish hitting that river..."That goddam flish caught his flish on the goddam river:]

I IMMEDIATELY recognise this as NOT A MADE FLUSH situation. This is just experience, but let me break it down: Big John LOVES calling with pocket pairs. He will legitimately check the flop, being first to act (and we have seen how he will small bet the nuts before), and I see clear disappointment on his face: if he had 88 (reasonable here) he wanted a small, small flop, or trips. Board way to big and way too scary, and he is good enough to know that that A is a killer.

His check being a clear surrender, AK of course CANNOT be of spades! The A on the board is a spade, duh! But there is no way I am giving up this pot to Small Ball, or allowing Big John to speculate with the 8 of spades (unlikely, but if the price and read are right...). My concern is that Small Ball's holding one big spade, and will try to manage the pot size until he hits.

The response: don;t get greedy. 4500 in the pot, about 9300 left. Take this sucka down with best hand while it is still clearly the best hand. What better form of protection than a bet that only the nuts (or someone nuts) can call?

ALL IN

Dealer counts my chips out. They lay there on the felt, begging to be taken.

Then something wonderful, magical, a miracle, happens.

Three breaths later...

Small Ball can't lay his AK down here. He needs to win a pot. He has NO IDEA WHY I WENT ALL IN! HE CALLS!

"set of ladies" I announce and turn over. He looks tragically shaken. You have a spade? I ask. He doesn't. Then he does something that really, really, really warms me to this guy.

He surrenders. He musks his cards. He doesn't pray for a miracle suckout and watch for it to happen. He concedes he was outplayed and outflopped, and walks from the table.

We all know, in detail, about the ULTIMATE SUCKOUT. The runner runner OMG 1.6% that turned final table gold into done in 7th. Read all about it, and how it led to my finding poker zen. Trailer Mouth, of course, champion of the little guy that he is, advocates staying at the table to watch runner runner spades split the pot, but very much appreciate the gesture of the beaten to accept he was beaten and thus maintain dignity in the face of defeat.

(as an aside, Amy, the donkey regular who was the recipient of that bad beat, when at the table together the next week, had forgotten all about it. I imagine the rest of her final table experience was forgettable too. She bad, bad poka playa. She have bad bad, poka face. She neva find Poka Zen if Poka Buddha slap her in face. I read this in a fortune cookie)

I will sit tight with my 22000 chips. It looks better, it feels better, but I have a lot of work to do. I will wait out my next double up opportunity.

In the meantime, I will watch Big John make big mistakes in big pots. He is playing TOO MANY POTS. He is trying to outplay people, but the table is quite sophisticated. One guy, already on the short stack after, like me, having to make good fold after good fold, and holding QQ from the BB, in a marginally raised pot with a low, garbage flop checks to the original raiser a big guy named Ryan (real name), who bets value, 600, leading to a raise to 2000, and then a reraise at it turns to him of 5000. When the original raiser, a good guy also looking for a spot, after some deliberation, and very much to my surprise, goes all in, this guy in the BB really goes in the tank, puts the re-re-reraiser on KK and folds his QQ! He has only 5000 left and he folds QQ! And out or respect, our re-re-raiser exposes his KK! This is how sharp this table is. I DID NOT put the guy on KK. To his credit, he had set up his raise by raising early with weaker hands earlier in the day, and there was no tell-tale as far as I can tell.

This is like, for many of us, going from undergrad to lawschool. We are used to having it easy, then we get tossed in with a bunch of brilliant players who test our egos and our skills.

Big John cannot outplay this table. Other than Trailer Mouth, who only plays huge hands and otherwise talks incessantly (he will GET VERY VERY ANNOYING, either telling us how to play poker, telling the dealer how to deal, or discussing Canadiana with his his disinctly redneck point of view. These are not your homeys, Cracker. Learn how to be PC in public dude. And yes I did pay for that call I made on the river, asshole), Big John is a small fish in a big pond. His first HUGE MISTAKE comes when what appears to be a buddy of his arrives to fill a vacancy beside him and to his left in seat 6.

Here is a VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON. Chinese males, in pots together, insist on pissing matches. Very, very, very small penis syndrome, I think. You can't reraise me, I reraise. Very much to their detriment. Lets discuss this. It will happen alot and be very relevant to my tournament results.

Okay. Big John's Buddy (lets call him Bud) is a creative player. He likes to outplay, but he always takes his time to reason and judge. He is also loose aggressive, and you can tell these guys know each other's game.

Bud has the button, and raises. Big John has the small blind. He clearly has a hand and reads the steal, and reraises. 1200 have become 6000. Bud thinks....then makes the call. The flop is 9 8 4ish and Big John, with big hand, continue bets, but, as he does, for value. Bud will deliberate and make the call.

These guys will bet, check, checkraise, blah blah, all the way to the river. The cards never get higher than 9. There is at least 20k in the pot. Bud will not let go of this pot, and Big John is first to act.

Big John has fired 3 bullets already. I SEE CLEARLY that he has built a big pot which he has MISSED but this investment can only be taken down with a bet. IT IS REALLY OBVIOUS that he has been lured into a big pot by a big ego problem. HE NOW HAS TO BET THE RIVER big enough to be credible and small enough to save his chips.

Big John bets 6000 on the river. Bud deliberates, AND JUST CALLS. He takes his time. He figured Big John out and turns over his A8 in response to big John's sooted AQ.

A very good player, perhaps one who knows his opponent too well, can read when his small ace which has hit the flop, perhaps for 2nd or 3rd pair, is ahead against the big ace. I have done this MANY TIMES. AK is in real trouble against A5 when the flop is 10 9 5, and if A5 knows what his man has, and AK keeps firing bluffets (new term: bullets fired when you hand is actually dead), A5 can check raise all in and get paid sometimes postflop.

So Huge MISTAKE BIG JOHN! Thanks for the info, baby.

Big John still has big chips, about 40 thousand. For now.

Dinner break time. I and Ryan wind up sharing a dinner table and discuss how lucky we are in this tough field that our big hands won us big enough pots to stay ahead of this game.

Soon after the break, blinds not 150/300 no ante, I get my real opportunity. I am first to open the pot in middle position and hold gold: KK. With 5 or 6 players to act, I need value here. I can't limp this in, and risk too many in the pot, and the chip stacks are now so troubled I can expect a raise. I elect a modest raise, to 800.

It is a good thing that I played pots early, sometimes raised, and limped in the QQ. It really disquises a hand. Many players will avoid a tricksy opponent they can't read. Trailer Mouth is smart enough to know he's not my calibre of player.

Big John, however, is a bit tilty now. He has squandered, oh say, 33,000 (wow, that's a lot) and still has 40,000 to play with. He refuses to really alter his game, and insists on playing a lot of hands. He is in the big blind and will make the call.

Big John is playing a wide variety of hands. He has a good poker face except when he thinks he's in trouble. I really have no idea what he called with.

The flop is 9 clubs, 8 clubs, 4 diamonds, a good, not a great flop for KK. 89 has two pair, 99 has me killed, 88 likewise, and 10 J clubs has a MONSTER DRAW. He could have any of those hands, and I need to know.

Big John will check the flop. I need information. I make a very standard bet in this situation, a bet I like a lot.

The pot being 1700, I bet 1200. Cheap to my opponent, and pot odds for most draws. Why offer pot odds? (A) If he flopped enormous, I should pick it up from his response. He has check raised and can do it again (B) I often can put a guy on a draw by inviting the call to see the draw.

Big John just calls. There is something he likes about his hand, and I am not sure what it is. HE DOES NOT HAVE A SET OR TWO PAIR. I don't see confidence: he has a hand, but he has concerns.

What we will discover, is that he does not have a clue what I have.

The turn is fantastic. 3 of hearts. No improvement for him, and he checks.

I am NOT LETTING OUR CALLING STATION SEE A CHEAP RIVER. He has me outstacked, I feel that KK is huge NOW, I have the chips to really set him off.

I'M ALL IN

The dealer counts out my remaining chips. 21,000 chips are protecting my 2000 chip investment to win a 4200 chip pot.

Big John is comfused. I am unresponsive. "Why so much?" he thinks aloud. "why so much?" He can't figure my bet out, but he has told me something. He has something good, but something less than the nuts.

He is thinking aloud about the range of hands I could have. A set maybe. What he doesn't put into play is how I have read him. What he has represented. A big stack willing to pay to catch a big draw.

But it is clear he doesn't have a big draw, he has a big hand short of the nuts. He really doesn't want to lay his hand down. The only thing I reveal, as he deliberates out loud, is me breaking the tension by stating "well, now I know what you have [an overpair, and only one of those beats me and calls instantly]". He responds to this with some desperation about how me knowing what he has isn't really what matters right now. This, if he had been attentive enough to notice, caused me to relax a bit and enjoy the tiniest, tiniest of smiles. I think he is going to call, and I know he is beat.

He does. It took 5 minutes but he exposes JJ. The river is trash. I double through and become table captain and chip leader.

Big John, having flamed out in the middle rounds trying to parlay early round luck, will fall victim to a big pair within 30 minutes of me cracking him back down to 20,000 chips.

I now have close to 50,000 chips and I can finally, finally, finally, feel relaxed. 150/300 blinds, hour levels, I have a huge stack. I can play any game I want and this table will fear my bets. Very Very VERY good situation to be in.

Do not lament Big John. I like Big John. He, like I, will learn much from his experience in the Main Event. He is a bright guy and a good player. He will probably tilt for a month over squandering that huge, easily won stack, but he will be stronger for it and I will respect his next bet should we next joust.

I will end the night's discussion there. Part 3 will be....interesting....

The Full Monty: $3000 main event (part 1 of however many it takes)

2008-05-13T18:53:00.000-07:00

Hey there!

Okay, I'm in a talkabout poker mood now, so lets walkabout a couple of hands.

I have VERY LITTLE to say about the $1000.00 preliminary event other than I liked the structure generally (10000 chips and 45 minute levels) and that it played more like a regular weekly in slowed down, big stack form. I played a little too conservative, and regret a few pushouts when could have trapped. Not a perfect example of Poker Monster play, but I did get the heebie jeebies out. A good warm for the main event. Lasting 7.5 hours without really having quality hands in real payoff situations is a credit to my game. It was frustrating watching people pay off the guy to my left when he got paid off early flopping quad 9s and letting 55 catch a full house at the end, then people, over and over, walking into KK KK, KK, AK, and KK which he happened to be holding when they pushed in desperation. Must be nice to have a game handed to you.

I grinded out small pot after small pot, and chipped to about 22,000 at peak on the basis of strong post-flop play, but the only race I was in was my last hand. A lack of cards/action through the last 2 hours forced my stack down to 11,500, simply an unacceptable quantify 30 minutes left into day 1 with 600/1200 blinds commencing day two. I was not greedy: I had a simple goal of 30k ending day one, enough to be able to remain patient, but I wasn't going to limp into day 2 and pray I catch AA or KK and action in the first 2.5 hours while watching my chips ante and blind off. When a player I knew well raised 3x the blind UTG I knew he had a hand: he only plays PPs or AK in that position this late in the game, but when play folds to me and I have AQ, I know I'm unlikely to see better in the next 15 minutes, and I'd rather take the day off and rest up for the main event than bother getting up the next day. I am exhausted. Playing constantly from the mediocre stack means playing for your life potentially in every pot you play. AQ good enough. QQ good enough to call. I really don't care. More luck to him.

Better luck to me in the main event.

It was a good warm up, and I take the day off completely to rest my poor dehydrated brain. As a result I am well rested with a good night sleep and a good feel for how to get through a long day of poker in what will be a slower, deeper, more serious game.

My initial plan is to get involved early. I have 15000 chips, and levels one and two are 25/50 and 50/100. I DO NOT WANT A TIGHT IMAGE. I want two things: A good feel for my opponents at the table, and and opportunity to exploit my creative skills with interesting hands while the price is right to play them. It will turn out that my game does not result in any chip improvement, but my chip investments will turn out extremely valuable in information used to make critical plays later.

Much of the table play will centre on BIG JOHN, a late 20's oversized Chinese guy who sits in seat 7: I am in seat one. In this first, absolutely critical hand, BIG JOHN is in the big blind. There has already been a limper in the pot, blinds are 25/50, and I hold K10 off suit: a marginal hand, but dirt cheap to play, so I limp in too. The guy beside me, who has a voice and look of a 40-something TJ Cloutier (TJr, if you will) also limps in. There may be another limper or two: The pot is unraised, and BIG JOHN simply checks.

The flop is K 8 3 rainbow. There is no draw at all and I have top pair. I have no feel for the other players in the pot. I have an acceptable hand in a limped in pot. It might be the best hand.

BIG JOHN makes a small bet: 150. I make a smooth call. TJr makes the call too. All others get out.

I have no idea where I stand. BIG JOHN is inscrutable. My impression is that was a top pair no kicker standard probe bet from the blinds. I cannot understand why the smooth call to my left. I am, however, suspicious. There is no draw on the board.

The turn is a trash card. BIG JOHN makes a decent bet: 600. With 600 in the pot, the pot size bet doesn't scare me. I make the call, but I am still suspicious. I am prepared to call some value bets until the river here, but then TJr then does something VERY SURPRISING.

There is an aura of "enough is enough" now emerging from TJr. His demeanour had been very calm, but now it is agitated. Then he BETS BIG. 6500! WTF?????

I have already seen him play some weird hands. He could easily have K8 or K3 suited. As far as my standing in this hand, something is very wrong.

it gets worse (for him). BIG JOHN now emerges from his shell. He has the look. The agitation. He is ALL IN

?????!!!!!!!

"I know where I stand in this hand" I say as I lay down. TJr is in the tank briefly, but makes the call. With AA.

TJr is beat. BIG JOHN turns over 88, and TJr is crippled.

This early boon for BIG JOHN is both his blessing and his curse.

Soon after, again BIG JOHN is in the BB in a limped in or barely raised pot. A VERY READABLE player, a white guy with a trailer park attitude who talks too much (Trailer Mouth is a good name) is in the pot with him.

The flop is 494 and BIG JOHN makes a small bet Trailer Mouth makes a small call. He has a demeanour, tho, of a big hand. I can see it.

The turn is a 6. BIG JOHN makes a MEDIUM BET of 800. He is betting VERY SIMILARLY to the prior hand. Trailer Mouth makes a value raise (obviously, I can see he has a monster hand) to 2000. BIG JOHN makes a cautious call.

The river is irrelevant. BIG JOHN looks suspicious, and checks. Trailer Mouth makes a solid bet of 5000 (his best play of the night...he is a shitty, abc player with no poker face who will get lucky a couple of times waking up with KK against a pot committed player's raise, but he thinks he's a player. He's just a yokel playing by the book) This bet is pot size, but very big in relation to the timing of the game and the preciousness of our starting stack, but he is not at risk.

BIG JOHN is in the tank briefly, but agonizing makes the big call. he has a big hand. 66. Trailer Mouth has 99.

BIG JOHN practically is crying. He put his man on 99. He had probe-bet the flop (as any would, a good flop for 66) and his gut said 99. Even turning the full house, his gut said SLOW DOWN. He feels like he dodged a bullet.

BIG JOHN had his head up and was in the zone, but refused to fully trust his instincts. That gut will save you every time! Maybe 1/2 his gut wanted to to prove the other 1/2 right, but this semi mistake will be the first of several critical ones. (I am leading up to something....) BIG JOHN will become rather flustered and confused as his head and his gut continue to battle....

I will continue the tragic story of Big John very shortly.....

Tournament Update: short version

2008-05-10T17:13:00.000-07:00

Well, 20 hours and 3 days of poker later, yours truly is knocked out in 50th place in the main event after entering day 2 in a very healthy 10th place with 67600 chips. 4 hours of no cards later, 88 looked very very good in the BB while two jerks were overbattling from the button and small blind and ignoring me.

10 10, having overbet to 25000 to sheriff the button steal, found himself committed to my remaining 56k when, after analyzing these two most of the day and on this particular hand, I liked what I saw in front and in the hole.

If both these dudes are A high I am big favorite. I knew I was going to get called. There is a time in every tournament to gamble.

I sleep now. The time to fully debrief will come.

Tournament Eve ramblings: Stay cool, m....f.... y'all know the rules

2008-05-06T17:59:00.000-07:00

Okay! 1 sleep til main event jr commences tomorrow. I really like the fact that this $1000.00 event is just a warm up to the $3000.00 event.

I also like the fact that I cleaned house last friday playing with the bros, and survived a field of 1000 in a $1 turbo rebuy online yesterday to parlay $5 total buy in into $450 coming in 3rd.

These cheap turbo rebuys (UB has always had one: the new schedule made it a $5000 guaranteed and starts it at 9:00 UB time)have always been a bit of bread and butter for me. I think I've won a dozen outright. But this one is a bit different with such a large field and big pot relative to cost. Given that, after a recent withdrawal, my UB account was a bit short and I had squandered some more expensive opportunities that day, and once I had gotten a decent stack, I committed to playing strong and making a run at it.

Playing strong does not always mean playing strong cards: it means putting your chips in in a few fair fights and gambling. K8 looks huge when you're constantly running from blinds which keep creep at 1/10 of your stack no matter how often you seem to be improving. Sometimes it is just a matter of making sure you are heads up with 2 live cards. Throwing in with A4 is never a smart move: it practically guarantees being a 30% dog if called, and often in these, calls have to be expected. No one lays down AQ or 99 in these things. 96 sooted is in a fair fight with AQ.

This is good comparable pressure to what I expect to face in the next 5 days. In these games, I may be looking at 45 minute and one hour levels, and 2-3 hours before the levels reach 1% of the starting stacks, but the time will come when a bad beat puts me in desperation mode and forces me into more gambling and erratic play.

I find that a little erratic play is MORE effective in protecting your blinds than tight play. If I will call or raise with 69 and gamble, will you attempt to steal with A7? I will have to play fearless and follow my guts and my reads where I sense weakness to win this. BLuffs are post-flop plays: these are gambles.

Let us, on a similar topic to last big blog, discuss the opposite, bluffs that are traps. We discussed a number of cases of how to get paid with trips: let me give you a great example of how I parlayed 4000 chips into 13000 chips in one hand when the blinds were 150/300 in last week's Wednesday $100 casino game.

These stories emphasize the key importance of live play strategies vs. online. I did some magnificent trapping online yesterday with AAs and KKs to maximize chip results in the turbo, but that's easy. Keeping your cool and shifting gears effectively in live play to maximize requires, mainly experience and understanding.

I am in the BB. I have paid 300, leaving me 3700 in chips. I am a mediocre stack with one viable play left in any raised pot.

UTG limps in. He will not be a factor in the hand.

The next player has double my chips, and limps in. He is an older white guy, and my observations put him at a pretty conservative player. Lets call him Steve.

Beside him is an older oriental guy, the kind of guy who will raise any ace. Lets call him Joe. Joe has about 10,000 chips. He limps in.

Play folds to me, including the SB, and I now wake up to look at AA.

Rockets in the pocket, three players interested in a flop, and I will play out of position the whole hand. Opportunity is at hand, but with only 1350 in the pot, 300 my own, the last thing I want to do is scare off my opponents. If I panic, wait to long, or get that buzz that says monster going, I will get nothing but the limps.

"I'll raise" I say calmly. How much? I don't announce immediately. I sense the limpers are watching me. I decide that the "standard raise", to 900, is right here. I do not wish to take enormous time debating this. I want my raise to be done quickly and efficiently, without spills, nervous ticks, or obvious deliberation suggesting "how do I get paid here?"

This is a good bet and a bad bet:

The good:

- With one or two callers, I build a pot of 2550-3150, allowing me to bet the pot with my remaining chips on the flop:
- It is standard enough to be relatively meaningless: it is a value raise, but looks to the unfamiliar as a weak steal attempt from someone who needs to get some chips and lacks much experience to know that this sum is too small to steal, when pot odds of 600 into 1950 supports anyone with 30% to win calling even if they knew I had AA: the BB raise is also such a common steal, that I can raise here while disguising the strength of my hand

The bad:

- You put this value raise together with ANY tell common to holding KK or AA and a smart player picks up the warning signals and gives his hand up, so I gotta play cool, motherf*cker, y'all know the rules (see The Roots album, The Tipping Point: great song, and sort of THE POINT).
- I have offered great pot odds to all three players, one of whom is the loose and lucky type, and will have to play out of position against who knows how many callers, all of whom have invested in the pot and want to see a flop.

I get the good and the bad. All three call. We now have a nice pot of 3750. I have 3100 left. As soon as I see call #3, I am looking at my remaining chips. I am expecting that the whole thing will be in as soon as the flop comes down. I am not greedy. Maybe top pair will call. This is a good pot.

FREEZE

The flop

A spades
Q spades
6 hearts

GEAR SHIFT TIME

It was the best of flops. It was the worst of flops. Now is NOT the time to be indecisive.

What do you do here? Top possible set with flush draw on board and 3 players ahead?
Plan A is easy. Put your chips in. Practically guaranteed to get two folds, and a maybe call with a flush draw from a deep stack.

But lets face it. AA comes only once every so often, and even less when you need it. Flopping AAA is 11% of holding AA. Pretty damn rare. Right now, I have the nuts, subject to an outdraw, and 75% to win (keeping in mind if the board pairs, I am saved from a flush) means I can gamble my fate and take advantage here.

So I check.

I check quickly. I do not deliberate more than 7 seconds here, probably less. I need to be decisive, I need to be quick. I need to credibly CHECK (see last blog and PHil Hellmuth's comments on check tells: Jamie Gold, you should read this blog and learn something)

Why is a CHECK the right move? Any bet says "oh boy, an Ace, and since I have two of them, I will NOT get action given that I RAISED, and any ace in this pot limp-called, meaning weak kicker probably suited, and Ax spades for flush draw here is impossible) and NO ACTION is the result. AK protecting itself is the read, and the bet is respected.

A CHECK suggests one of two things, which are both VERY CREDIBLE: (1) my steal is a bust or (2) my JJ, 10 10, or 99 is a bust. A little bit of disappointment in my body language is all it takes.

So I check. UTG checks.

Steve bets. He is, hmmm, deliberate...confident....CALCULATED. Steve has A HAND. EVENTUALLY a solid 2500 comes out Hmmm....

My gut immediately suggests he flopped a set. limp followed by afforable raise by a call: small PP. This is not QQ. This is 66.

And let's comment on this bet, and compare it to the last big blog. He will turn out to have 66. A on board, raised pot, I have a set. I will get action, possibly from the desperate seeming raiser from the BB....bet value to raise the pot size.

GOOD BET

HANG ON....

Joe is thinking. He is playing with chips. He likes this flop. If I have AAA and Steve has 666, Joe has..oh oh..a draw. But I contemplated the draw when I decided to check, and I accepted my odds with the gamble.

While we wait fror Joe to respond, lets talk about my response. I am the semi-pot committed short stack who raised then checked. That 2500 bet is a lot of my stack. So I play with my stack. I separate 2500 in big chips from 600 in small chips. I weigh them in my hands. I continue to sell my hatred of this situation EVEN THOUGH Steve's eyes are on Joe and Joe's mind is on Steve's bet. The last thing I can do here is get excited.

Lets face it, nice big pot, Steve having made a bet that specifically made him NOT POT COMMITTED, if I have K 10 spades here, I LOVE that flop. Especially if I am a gambler. The size of the pot has become very tempting.

Joe will eventually RAISE ALL IN here. In the meantime, I am sitting there with apparent impatience, apparent contempt, apparent disgust. When Joe finally commits his stack, I with some hesitation, and apparent resignation, declare "looks like I'm priced in here." and put my chips in.

HERE'S WHAT IS IMPORTANT: even with only 600 of my chips left to call here, I stay in character. I don't spaz out and throw my chips in with excitement. But this is because AT NO TIME AM I ACTUALLY DISGUISING A HYPER, EXCITED ADRENALYZED STATE. I am calm, and remain calm.

LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR: I AM NO ACTOR. In drama class, I used to giggle through my lines.

Steve calls all in, and shows his 66. Joe has 64 of spades. While this improves his draw against my set slightly, by holding the case 6 preventing a 66 pair on the board, holding that 6 kills Steve's set, while I still have the case A, three Queens, or runner runner turn card to kill a flush. The computer says 69% to win, and I will take those odds any day to parlay 4000 chips to 13000 chips with 30 to go and blinds of only 130/300.

I WAS NOT ACTING. I hated my hand, my situation, my callers, that flop. I hated them because I have seen so many AA cracks. I have had Aces full of nines fall to quad nines. I have seen my trip AAA fall to flush draws, and QQQ fall to runner runner flushes. AA is so full of expectation, that the disappoinment of seeing them cracked is an easily available memory to use to calm you down. I had AA cracked earlier that night by 44 on a ridiculous 343 flop (ordinarily, I love a tiny paired board with a big overpair to protect me from a flopped 2 pair).

THE KEY TO THIS HAND was the experience I have, which allowed me to identify the scenario, shift gears, and make good swift decisions, all without giving off any information to disguise my monster flop. I was complemented by an observing player, who had no clue I was holding such a big hand.

I had to carry through this in a hand that, from start to finish, might have been 4-5 minutes in length.

Just remember: "I hate AA. I will get sucked out on." It is your mantra. AA is your hot date, but you know she said yes to you on a dare, and you'll get no action from her because you're out of her league and you both know it. You want her. You hate her. Even when she offers up a tease, hate her. Until you clear that river card, hate her like every hot coed you were afraid to ask out in college.

This is of course, not a suckout story. No runner runner 5th six, no spade.

During my ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, it occurs to me that my mark must have put me on a flush draw because of my bet and show with the prior hand drawing nut flush. Her instincts were dead wrong.

I saw her buying into tomorrow's tournament today when I picked up my tickets.

Good luck to me.

A small aside

2008-04-28T00:14:00.000-07:00

Incidently, I also intend to share with you what I I hope and expect to be a very unique creation, my own custom-made poker table, courtesy of Crummer Poker Tables and my wallet...including a hyperlink, of course.

No tells here. You will have to wait.

Been a long time been a long lonely lonely lonely.....time

2008-04-27T18:36:00.001-07:00

[In an interesting twist of Poker Karma, I got 6 paragraphs into this long overdue, overly long blog only to have an errant key stroke wipe out the whole text. Undeterred, I start again...I intend to save religiously the second time around]

The Poker Monster, after 5 months of "wandering the desert" feeding on sng's and $1 turbo rebuys while riding out a huge bad beat streak, has emerged reborn with new insights and a fresh perspective to go with a new level of his game. It took a MOTHER of ALL BAD BEATS to find this higher plane of poker consciousness. Like all good karmic philosophers, allow me to take a VERY LONG TIME to make my point.

Along the way we'll talk some poker. Final table and key bubble poker, especially about traps and big draws from and against the blinds.

The Poker monster hit some hard times since winning $8500.00 on an online freeroll and his satellite into a major tournament. Sinus surgery, minor but painful, undermined my play during a $1,800.00 game with 500 entries. A final table split agreement with 4 people left on the Monday $60 Casino game gave me a certain $1400.00 over a good shot at $2000 over a tired field, but began a 3 month bad beat streak which turned into a frustration streak which EVENTUALLY turned my focus back to playing as well as I could, only to LEAD UP to the ULTIMATE FINAL TABLE BAD BEAT which, as my "rock bottom", in fact caused a whole new perspective and insight into that enigmatic ghost in the probability machine I, as an ignorant mortal, have occasionally alluded to as "poker karma".

I am now through the looking glass, people. But I get ahead of myself. First let me speak of the results of my rebirth, and then of my path to poker enlightenment.

Since the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, I have played possibly my best poker. I made sick calls and huge laydowns to make my way to the final 4 of the Monday $60 Casino game, and then INSISTED we not chop the pot. Because I was fresh, alert, and in the zone. I had made a call with QJ of hearts to bust a short stack with 88 to make it there. I had folded AJ sooted to a 4x under-the-gun bet, because I looked up after reaching for the 1200 chips, only to see the raiser bristling in anticipation of action as only a big hand does, and laying down to find the raiser's AK up against a short stack with AA. Because I was still playing with my head up and my mind fresh, while others were worried about work the next day and their bedtimes.

And LO, UNTO ME was a raise all in and immediate reraise all in after I opened 4 handed with 88. And I PAUSED, because one of my opponents had a preflop monster, and FOLDED TO SEE the 8 on the flop and A7 in terrible against KK. But I was content with my solid laydown, because, LO, I KNOW when some Joe holds two cowboys, and I had barely committed 5% of a huge stack to see 60% at risk for a three way pot. BECAUSE the ZONE belonged to the MONSTER and to no one else.

Had I called, I knock 2 people out and have a 10 to 1 advantage against the remaining short stack. BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I will be patient, and watch our new chip leader stumble with his chips and keep the short stack in only to fall to KK himself overplaying 67 and flopping 722.

AND LO, THINE SHORT STACK opponent now was leader heads up. And LO, I hear again those sick, sick words of the weary: "LET US CHOP THIS POT and together DWELL in the land of Milk and Honey".

BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I refuse his entreaties. I intend to get Biblical here.

Our weary opponent makes his first stumbling attempting to raise too much. He has announced his raise from the sb/button, but has failed to complete his raise, adding his announcement to the SB of 4k only. He fumbles and drop chips completing the bet after his error is drawn to his attention by the dealer.

SOME of you UNENLIGHTENED may put our stumble on a hand, the nervousness of holding a monster, but THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. We have played the final table for an hour now. I have observed every play he has made. I observe all of this before I look to my hand and see AJ, and move all in instinctively, confidently.

And he tells me what the gut already knew. He was making a move with junk.

The tide has turned. I have won 90% of my races at the final. AJ beat 99 calling all in with two even stacks. Sick call, J on the window. 55 calls to beat a short stack AK. Our prior big stack called with 66 and I needed to steal or double with K10. 10 on the window holds through.

That reraise all-in sealed my momentum, and I pushed my opponent around preflop and post flop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not, until I had him exhausted and his chips at 50% of mine.

AND LO, UNTO ME LAY TWO THIN DUCKS, MEATLESS, BONY, BUT LARGE AS LIFE.
ALL IN I DECLARE, BUT ONLY PUT THE CHIPS TO COMPLETE THE BLIND
MY WEARY OPPONENT, UNAWARE, ANNOUNCES RAISE...
I'M ALREADY ALL IN, I TELL HIM, AND HE CALLS
THE RESIGNATION IS THERE, EVEN AS HE TURNS OVER AQ

AND MY DUCKS SURVIVE 4 SPADES TO RIVER A STRAIGHT.

Why all in with 22? Because, children, because the ghost in the machine had whispered in my ear...

I will parlay my 1900 into outplaying 76 people to earn one of 4 seats in a $220.00 satellite for entry into the $1000.00 and $3000.00 buy-in main events of the major CPT event being hosted by my local casino in a week. And earning it sick and dirty. Surviving an early bad beat (A10 check raising all in into my AQ on an A high flop and turning a 10) to have to race 33 against AJ and 10 10 against AQ to finally get a chip stack with a comfort zone, then out playing a loose aggressive "young gun" who liked to back talk reraising him all in with 88, outplaying another with 88 and a Q J 9 flop, and raising the same "young gun" with A4 (that's right. Ace-four. Off suit) when he cut off raised with J9 spades and was "pot committed" to the call (see earlier blogs, Mr. Young Gun, about pushing short stacks in the blinds). A4 held up, and this kid was just incredulous when I told him I knew I was ahead (BUT NOT HOW I KNEW) just as I had talked him out of calling my 88 earlier by telling him I put him at 30% to win when he tried to talk me into information.

I am a very polite live player, but if someone wants to back-talk and trash talk me, I am happy to play back.

Young gun will bust in 6th. I will burst the bubble making an instacall with AJ clubs against the short stack's push with A3 hearts and seeing the J on the window.

I will follow up online the next day putting $20 into a field of 400 and coming home with $775 after spending the first 90 minutes of the game trapped with no more than my starting stack.

THE "ZONE" IS DEFINED SIMPLY: IT IS THE SUM OF THREE THINGS

(a) I HAVE A COMPLETE FEEL FOR MY OPPONENTS AND THE WAY THEY PLAY
+
(b) I HAVE THE PATIENCE TO BE OBSERVANT BEFORE MAKING ANY COMMITMENTS
+
(c) I HAVE A KARMIC SENSE OF DESTINY OVER THE TWO CARDS I HOLD

often, (c) really is a function of (a) and (b) It was to burst the bubble in the satellite. Sometimes, the equation in a race situation is more like this:

(c) = ((a)squared + (b) squared)/ G
where G is what the Ghost in the Machine has whispered into my ear.

On that fateful Monday, the Ghost told me to fold 88, even though an 8 was coming. I then won clean through superior play rather than through pure luck, providing me with the additional confidence to play sick and strong to win my buy-in for the biggest two events I have ever had the privilege to play. My fold was justified by my read of my players, in spite of my lucky flop, just as my fold with AJ earlier in the tournament in considering an opening raise of 1200, because I stopped to play with my chips, and look up to see the look of the raiser in anticipating my action, and then folding to see his AK fall to AA. Both laydowns confirmed I was in THE ZONE, which can be far more important than winning the pot.

I know no path to this enlightenment, other than the truly random path the Ghost may choose for you. I will tell of my path soon.

Let me talk some hands first. I just went to a seminar highlighted by lectures by Annie Duke, Phil Hellmuth, and a few also-rans. Interestingly enough, Annie Duke's math-based lesson was in many ways identical to my earlier blogs, including all the reasons why suited connectors are, mathematically, unplayable. Her example was 78 sooted. I have ranted similarly about 10 J sooted and off, but I will continue to play 78 sooted, simply because it is often good on a 7 high or 8 high flop, which often has straight outs to go with your top pair in situations where people in the pot are playing hands above this flop like, for example, J10 and JQ. J10 never hits top pair without being outkicked by a hand in the pot.

Annie Duke's poker strategy is based on very sophisticated math which is far in advance of the "basics" found in, say, Phil Gordon's teachings. In fact, when asked of good poker books, Annie and Phil commented on many, including Slancky and Harrington, but never breathed the word "Gordon". Phil Gordon was only mentioned for sucking out on Phil Hellmuth's AA with 99 in the only WSOP final table Mr. Gordon ever made. ENOUGH SAID? Annie will have a new book out soon, 500 pages on post flop play. I will read it, and can recommend it blind on the strength of her lecture today. Very simply, her math message is pretty identical to mine. Where she and I may disagree is that I will play looser in an early game with chips I feel comfortable speculating with in a hope of catching that huge double-up opportunity ("scary play") vs Annie's more conservative formula based on raises, steals, and made hands("tight play"). She has some excellent comments on table image. Very sophisticated analysis. I will look forward to comparing her 500 pages of notes.

Okay, math, odds, putting a guy on a hand...

Lets talk about playing flush draws at critical times in tournaments.

Example one:

[Pay attention kids, because this is the same final table and the same player who delivered me the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT...I've had AAAA cracked, but this is worse]

Final table, $100.00 Casino Wednesday game, I have played excellent to get there, have an average stack of 30k in chips, blinds are 800/1600, two short stacks are already gone, but we have only played 5 hands. I am first to act in the middle with AJ clubs and I raise to 4000. This is the first hand I've played, and 5 players at the table are unfamiliar to me, including the 30 something oriental woman in the BB, who makes the call.

Every time I am at a new table, I try to be very observant in order get a feel for my opponents, and this is now exception. I am watching her eyes through my sunglasses as the flop comes down. I am not looking at the flop, only her reaction to it.

I see disappointment. Clear and obvious disappointment.

I look at the flop. It is 5 high two clubs.

Seeing the flop and her disappointment, I really can think of no better option here.

All in.

She folds.

I show.

Why all in? Aren't I bluffing for my tournament life here?
No, not at all. I am, in fact protecting the best hand. 5 high is of course, 5 4 2. Because it is clear her hand needed a flop, I clearly have a huge number of outs. A, J, 3 for a straight, any club for nut flush. 17 outs is, roughly, (without dead-out counting) 61% ahead of even 10 10 here, and 10 10 loves that flop, not hates it.

Even if I assume I was dominated preflop by QQ or AK, I still have 14 outs, which is even money (50.4%, but my read post-flop confirmed my impression preflop that she was simply defending the BB. It is more likely, then, that I also had the best hand preflop, perhaps dominating. For her to continue here, she is gambling with probably 4 or 5 outs, assuming she has two live overs like Q 10. She gets 5 if she has a club, and I have to take one away. Her best two live/one club scenario forces her to pick up some life at 18% with two to go, while a full 13 of MY outs which will hit 47% of the time and CRUSH her caught Q and 16 of MY outs crush her caught 10 58% of the time.

The last thing I want, however, is a Q or 10 of hearts on a turn card I gave up for cheap, giving my opponent the confidence of top pair and dropping chances of winning in half. I have the best hand because it has dominating POTENTIAL against an opponent who has completely whiffed. If I price someone in for a turn card, with say, a 6000 bet into the 11,000 pot (remember the sb and antes) I gave up control of the hand and possibly a pot. I did not need to play this hand for a big pot, and I cannot trap an opponent with mere potential because shit happens.

So why show?

It is early in the final table. I want to demonstrate a few things which will benefit me in the long run:

(a) I am telling the field that I am going to play the final table aggressive, fearless, and to win;
(b) Less sophisticated players will think I am merely loose-aggressive and think they can play me for double ups, while sophisticated players who paid attention to the flop will understand the math as well as I and perhaps clue in that I also do, giving me action where I want it and respect where I need it: The former sees my move as semi-bluff (Phil Gordon on his good days, or a novice read of Doyle Brunson's Supersystem), the latter as a strong play with a strong hand from someone who understands the whole math of the hand. (Annie Duke)
(c) I will play this opponent again, have a good read on her, I have put her in the former category, and want to set up a trapping opportunity for later (I will eat these words!!!!!!.......wait for it)

[How bizarre...blogger.com is now autosaving like a hot damn]

Okay, here's an example of a similar nature from the seminar:

This is Shawn Rice, whom I consider to be a middling pro. He is an official Ultimate Bet pro, so he is also a guest speaker [Is this a clue to Poker Monster's secret online identity?] His lecture focuses on playing weak $1/2 cash NLHE tables online to maintain your bank roll. He will play a hand where both he and his opponent make big mistakes. These mistakes will not only tell you how to beat Shawn Rice by playing weak at cash tables, but also illustrate the steps I discussed above which both players missed to make mutual mistakes.

Here's the hand.

SR is in the cutoff with QK diamonds and raises to $7 into the blinds, and the BB calls. The BB only has $80 to SR's $200.00 The flop is identical as my example, 5 4 2 diamonds, and Shawn's reasoning is identical: two overs and a flush draw. However he is missing a few pieces of the puzzle, and his draw is not as strong either: there is no git shot straight and he doesn't KNOW he has two overs, or at least live cards, on his opponent. ITS A CASH GAME. PEOPLE DEFEND THEIR CHEAP ASS BLINDS. PEOPLE ALSO CAN HAVE BIG HANDS IN THE BLINDS AND PLAY WELL FROM THEM.

Shawn has no read at all from his opponent. The BB bets weak, $8, and, IN SPITE OF AN EARLIER EXAMPLE WHERE HE TRAPPED WITH A SET OF EIGHTS BY THE SAME OPENING BET INTO THE SAME POT IN THE SAME POSITION(which I will discuss later), SR puts that weak bet as weakness and BETS THE POT (and simply by pressing the bet pot button, which is lazy and stupid. It says to an online opponent that I am lazy, thoughtless, and aggressive, often meaning a bluff or semi-bluff) This bet is big. $31. IN SPITE OF THE BET COMMITTING THE BB TO 1/2 HIS STACK, BB JUST CALLS.

And SR still has NO READ when the 7 spades hits the turn. To a BB check, SR BETS THE POT and GETS CALLED. Rice got no information AT ALL from the called over-raise.

QK and QQ now show down and a King sucks SR out on the river. UGLY.

The BB was trapping a player who, by his own admission, continue bets every raise he makes. Was that a good play, in spite of the suckout? NO.

Why not?

Well, you spend an hour with SR at a cash table, and you find that he raises, but he is not reckless. There is usually a "raisable" hand behind him whether he hit or missed. Maybe he bets to much but he could very well have a hand that could beat QQ eventually.

It is fine to exploit his aggressive nature, but you must to it safely. QQ is good on that flop, but consider the range of hands SR may have made the raise with. QK is out there, but so are MANY A-x combinations, including A-x sooted.

Not even considering the flush draw, A-x on that flop has, effectively, TWO OVERS ON QQ: any 3 and any A. This is MORE dangerous than AK with two to go, because there are four 3's as opposed to three K's to draw from. Would you trap with QQ if you know your opponent has AK? Hell no. Odds to hell, we have ALL SUFFERED the overplayed AK catch up to QQ on turn and river. 21.6% to DISASTER IN A BIG POT. If you give him 25% to hold the two diamonds as well, throw in another 8% or so to disaster, JUST BY ANALYZING HIS LIKELY RANGE OF HANDS as opposed to a more accurate read. A more accurate read understands that odds are even here. With only a coinflip odds, who do you want to have to make that coin flip decision? You, or him? Bet for strength, and he does. Trap for value, and you have already decided you are the gambler.

QQ got greedy here. I liked the small post flop bet. But when the response is a lazy BET POT button click, WHY IN HELL against a real player would you give him a free card with a smooth call? and then guarantee him a river by check calling the turn? $40.00 profit out of this is plenty, when you can reraise all in for $40.00 more and force SR into a decision. If you have $100 more to reraise with, it is a MUCH TOUGHER decision.

You simply cannot get greedy like this without THE NUTS. If this was a short-stacked final table scenario, the temptation to trap might be much greater, but it shouldn't be. When you are offered a guaranteed pot post-flop because you have a strong hand and a good read, this pot offers you a 50% increase on your stack WITHOUT RISKING ANY CHIPS by simply slamming the door shut post-flop and post-raise. You will need those chips waiting for another opportunity.

In other words, QQ here is really identical to my AJ clubs on the same flop for actual strength. I will trap on occasion here, but only against opponents I can bust while affording to lose against them all in, and that is still no excuse for not putting my opponent on a hand or likely hand to the best of my ability and acting accordingly.

If the BB here sets up his pre- or post-flop bet up to an amount set up to give SR some folding odds, such as a small raise preflop which induces a "pot odds" call (total bet $15 maybe), or, better, check raises the flop, because lazy Shawn will click the BET POT button into a $15 pot, making a check-raise of $65.00 into $30 pot not only signal your opponent to a trap, which you want, while making a call with his flush draw marginal. Its a cash table, so you can always rebuy when Shawn sucks out (he was only 25% on the turn), but this trap can only be made in a critical time in a tournament when you can put your opponent on a complete bluff, which usually only occurs when the raising and call make a short stack pot committed preflop. Against a good player with decent stack, you have guaranteed your opponent will be looking for his outs with 2 to go.

Okay, trapping in the blinds, after catching a set: first, Shawn Rice's example:

Again this is cash and on-line, and SR smooth calls a button raise to $10 with 88 from the SB. Both players have $200 or more chips. The flop is AK8 two clubs, but in a heads up situation I am happy for the A and don't care about the flush draw, and so is SR.

SR will bet $8 and sees a lazy pot bet to $46.00. He will act just like the QQ and smooth call to see a J or spades, making two clubs and two spades.

SR has made an excellent read here. This was just a button raise, and the guy is continuing, trying to represent an Ace. Shawn just checks, and a HUGE pot bet (don't to this folks. Size your bets PERIOD so that it looks like there is thought to them) of $120.00 is the result, leading to SR raising all in to about $160, and, amazingly, a Q3 hearts bluff with a gutshot to the river calls and misses for a big cash double up.

NOBODY IS THAT STUPID OR RECKLESS LATE IN A TOURNEY. $1/2 cash NLHE (both live and online) appears to be a weak game full of rookies with the same gambling instincts as those who play $5-50 hands of blackjack. They are fish who play at that level because $3.50 pots offer no thrills. I hate these tables. You and Shawn can have them. I play cash PLOmaha and Limit Omaha 8/b, and I play them for practice against good players who understand these games.

A much better example came from Phil Hellmuth, who brought in a clip from the WSOP 2006 final table, a hand between Jamie Gold and Allan Cunningham. It is on YouTube and it was very instructive.

Cunningham is a very shrewd and observant player, and Jamie Gold a lucky amateur. Phil's example was how Jamie Gold butchered the set trap.

AC has A10 and opens for $900,000 against I believe $100/200k blinds. JG has a 5 to 1 chip lead on AC's 20ish million chips, but flat calls with 88. The flop is ideal, A-8-6 rainbow, and JG has position. There were 3 callers, leaving about $3 million in the pot, and AC, given his relatively weak A for the initial price he laid and his position, makes a conservative bet, $1m. JG just calls but he does so very quickly.

Phil did not comment so much on this play, so I will. Anyone who followed the 2006 WSOP knows that Gold talked too much and revealed way too much, and tended to bet a lot. Gold is very quiet and calls very quickly, actions completely out of character. There is no deliberation. There is no likely draw on the board, only a 7 -9 or 5 -7 straight draw, and while JG can play these hands in raised pots and does with his monster stack, the lack of hesitation in the flat call is inconsistent with the draw. That ace on board in a raised pot will limit any undercard straight draw to the turn. Any good player with the A will smell the draw and shot down the hand if the turn is favourable. Sure, a big stack can call $1m into $5m with 15% to hit the turn, but the quick call is fishy.

You can see that AC smells the fish too. He checks the 2 on the turn, and JG quickly checks back.

Phil was VERY critical of this play, and this might have been the most informative comment we got from him. Phil has seen this play as a tell indicative of a huge trap many times, and he was watching this happen live, so i doubt Phil is bluffing about his read. Phil indicated that the quick check indicates that Gold has already decided to check trap or call trap the turn card, and does not have enough guile in him to disguise it.

[But incidently, I tricked a very good player into PAYING OFF my flush when I had initially raised with A clubs Q, saw a low flop with three clubs, and BET the flop (continuation) GOT TWO CALLERS (like one had a good club) and then CHECKED the club which hit the turn. Then this very good player OVERBET 1500 (potsize) the river giving me only 700 more to go all in, and forcing a pot odds call. I call his bet an overbet because one typically value bets a checked flush, but, as a clever player, he was trying to be misleading. As a cleverer player, I had misdirected my draw by betting the flop and checking the nuts on the turn, to convince another club he was good. Had he bet smaller, I am not sure what my river play would have been, but probably a value raise if I was convinced he was convinced his flush was good.]

Back to Gold and Cunningham.

Cunningham is clearly uncertain about the strength of his hand when the river pairs the 6. The read I put on him here is that he will pay off a value bet, but no more. He bets out a weak $2m bet into a $6m pot.

And JG, who's brain is too actively connected to his mouth, just butchers this opportunity. NOW Gold talks, and he immediately goes all in and prepares to flip his cards on an assumed call. His adrenaline has betrayed him. He just simply lost his cool in this opportunity to knock out the best pro left against him. He says "I knew you didn't have it".

Cunningham folds immediately.

If your goal was to extract 25% of someone's short stack with a huge hand, play this like Jamie. If you want to get ALL OF SOMEONE'S CHIPS AND DOUBLE THROUGH after flopping huge, play like this:

[CAUTION: THE BELOW PORTION OF THIS BLOG ENTRY CONTAINS A GRAPHIC DEPICTION OF THE PHYSICAL CARNAGE OF THE ULTIMATE BAD BEAT. ANYONE WITH THE FLU, ON HEART MEDICATION, OR PREGNANT SHOULD READ AT THEIR OWN PERIL OF VOMIT, HEART ATTACK, MISCARRIAGE, OR GIVING BIRTH TO THE SON OF SATAN. THIS IS A TRAIN WRECK, FOLLOWED BY A CHEMICAL SPILL, FOLLOWED BY CHERNOBYL, AN EARTHQUAKE, AND GODZILLA AND RODAN BUSTING UP YOUR CONDO]

Back to the final table of the $100.00 Wednesday casino game where I "overplayed" my AJ clubs. We are now 7 handed, and our oriental female mark and I have nearly identical stacks of around 40k. Blinds remain 800/1600. I am in the SB.

Little Miss Mark (LMM) is in the cut off, the table is tight so far, and she makes a small raise to 4000. Pretty standard play, and this bet has been enough for the blinds to fold at this tight early final. Play folds to me and I see 77. This is a very good situation to see a flop. 77 is a solid starting hand heads up, my opponent is an open book, and my price is excellent. The BB also thinks so, and makes the pot-odds call (and why not, 2400 into 10000 will make any two cards look good).

The flop is perfect A 7 3 two clubs. I am not remotely concerned with the flush draw, and I have semi-instinctively put LMM on an Ace. While many would bet here small or large, I do not wish to represent the strength representing the most typical call, a decent Ace, because I put my LMM as a very unsophisticated player, and the last thing I want is my mark worried about her kicker.

I play this for what a Phil-Gordon style player will expect: I called to defend my blind, I hate the Ace. I check because it is expected I will check to the raise and the ace. The BB also checks, and LMM makes what would be, if she had the best hand, a good bet, 8000 into the 12000 out there.

Except for one problem. I was anticipating this. She has an Ace, 12000 invested, 20k in the pot, about 30k left, and believes she has what she wants.

I check raise another 10k, putting the put up to 38,000 when she has 30k left. She DOES NOT HESITATE when she reraises and I quickly move in. My reraise was calculated to create an irresistably huge pot against a very simple-minded player who simply did not have the experience or capacity to understand the usual flags of the check-raise.

(see what you can get done without seeing another street which might kill the action, such as another club?).

We are now both all in with me a 98.4% favourite.

That's right. 98.4%. As in LOCKED UP. I have now both doubled up to the chip lead while serving notice to the table that I am truly the POKER MONSTER.

turn is an 8
river....

an 8

RUNNER RUNNER GODDAMN 88. She had 5 outs and needed both of them. an A and an 8, or AA would also do. but I checked the odds out later on the computer.

I AM SICK

LITERALLY SICK.

QUEASY.

DIZZY.

I AM CLOSE TO PUKING.

I KNEW THIS TABLE WAS RIPE FOR THE PICKING AND INSTEAD OF RUNNING OVER THE TABLE I AM GETTING $360.00 FOR PLAYING PERFECT.

SICK SICK SICK

GOOD THING I AM NEITHER FLU-INFECTED, PACE-MAKER-EQUIPPED, OR PREGNANT.

What makes this the ultimate bad beat over when my AAAA got cracked by a royal flush, for example, is not the odds. It is the situation. When my AAAA got cracked, there was a flush made on the turn to my slowplayed set of A's (8 kicker) and I though I had lucked out with the river quads. It was not a critical point in a live tourney, it was online for a $20 buy in in the middle rounds where I could just find the next available game.

What begins as sickness slow turns to anger. Serious anger, made stronger when I did check the odds on the computer. 98.4% to win? That suck out was NOT MERE COINCIDENCE. IT WAS NOT COLLUSION. IT WAS THE HAND OF FATE. THERE IS NO GOD. ONLY THE EVIL HAND OF FATE, AND FATE HAS HATED ME FOR 2 MONTHS AND NOW FATE IS TRYING TO KILL ME.

FATE PAID OFF A WEAK PLAYER WHO DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILLS WITH A BIG STACK TO ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING AT A FINAL TABLE EXCEPT PAYING OFF BETTER PLAYERS AND DENIED ME MY DUE.

I'm joking? No, I am serious. This is my reaction. I was rewarded for brilliant play in a completely safe situation with OUTRAGEOUS MISFORTUNE.

I am in a tilt tank for 24 hours. I am talking to myself. I am shouting in my head. My faith is truly shaken. GOD MUST HATE ME PERSONALLY.

Until it finally hits me... How do you win a big tournament? You can put your chips in with AA all the time, but lets face it, I remember an online game where I had AA or KK seven times in 45 minutes and got action every time and lost 6 out of 7s. You need to put your chips in with at least coinflip odds and you have to win EVERY CRITICAL RACE whether you are forced to play A4,K 10, 33, or 10 10 for your life. THE ONLY WAY TO DO THIS is to tune in to the (a) (b) and (c) of THE ZONE and come to terms with the Ghost in the Probability Machine. Go with your reads and go with your gut. If you slowplay-limped AQ UTG where you normally raise, only to see huge action ahead of you, fold and see QQ vs AA, it's because the GHOST has WHISPERED and you LISTENED. When you announce the Royal Flush draw when QK diamonds is all in preflop against KK AND IT HITS...When your buddy can't help but declare the runner runner flush suckout against you when you had someone killed and trapped all-in on the flop, and YOU KNOW ITS COMING and IT COMES...or call the river card with 100% accuracy (all true events)....you stop having doubt. You begin to have faith. THE ZONE doesn't always tune in, but when it does, you have to play by it. Ignore it at your peril.

My faith was confirmed about 2 weeks later.

I was playing a $150.00 online tournament and was simply surviving with the short stack. I had just survived a K high all in call against A high while pot committed in the BB to a raise to have a meager 7400 in chips with 600/1200 on the way and less than 20 left. Under the gun, I pushed with A10 because I felt I had to. A stack with similar problems called and so did a tiny stack.

I was up against JJ with my A10 (the small stack hand escapes me). I was 30% with 5 to go, but my heart sunk on the flop.

J 10 3. A set to an under-pair.

The turn...an A
The river...an A

I took down a pot worth 19k, good enough for 3rd, and would take out my opponent with the next hand, effectively knocking two players out and bringing the total to 11, guaranteeing a decent situation at a final table with a top prize of about $5400.00, buy crushing top set with runner runner Aces full of 10s.

My opponent....was furious. As if I had done it to him deliberately. He threatened he would come after me if we were at the same table again. I would have said I have never encountered such anger, not the worst Phil Hellmuth suckout rant, not Devilfish's suckout rant when Phil cracked AA with 99, had I not experienced it myself. Critical time. Huge flop. Guaranteed pot I must win. Outrageous misfortune. Fade to black...

I haven't seen my victim since. Did he see the light? Did he tune into the Ghost of Poker Karma? Or has he sworn off poker forever? I somehow think this was meant to be shared...so that others can find peace with the karmic reality of 52 card infinite probability, and tune in to its more complex algorithms....

Do not think that simply reading this blog will tune you in. This is a trial by fire. You need to feel that sickness. Feel that anger. Feel the shock of reality of the order within the chaos of near infinite probabilities...and allow it in.

All of the universe has order within the randomness. Physical and mathematical laws apply to create predictable outcomes from random interactions. Clouds of interstellar dust collapse into stars and galaxies due to the operation of relativity and gravity incredibly complexly but entirely predictably. It only appears a miracle to those who cannot comprehend the math. So too, apparently, 52 random cards applied to 10 or fewer minds trying to outwit the odds and each other with whatever chance offers them as their tools.

Incidently, my suckout success was SLIGHTLY better odds than my victimization. Runner runner QK for a straight was a 0.4% possibility as well. A full 2% to catch after he flopped the overset.

THATS JUST SICK.

I look forward to blogging about the Coast to Coast $1,000.00 bounty and $3,000.00 main event at the River Rock Casino in Vancouver, Canada May 7 and 9. Until then.

Lazy Monster neglects blogging

2007-11-18T23:26:00.000-08:00

Crazy, fateful day today.

My online site decided to freeroll me into its big Sunday $200+9, 927 person, $200,000.00 guaranteed tournament.

I decided to accept said invitation. Its been awhile. Your Friendly Neighbourhood Poker Monster took down his biggest cash ever and period by coming into 6th for 8500.00 crappy, devalued US dollars (up Canada!). One lesson of live poker lost on greedy poker monster today: that quiet, cheap reraise =KK Drop those QQ and stay the chip leader! Or play to win, they are two ladies, my two ladies have NEVER lost at the casino (including major suckouts), and enjoy the extra x mas moolah, baby.

TOMORROW IS THE BIG EVENT

Not the main event, just the biggest live game I happened to be in $1100.00 buy in earned with an $85.00 satellite with top prize $125,000.00 good,hard, CANADIAN dollars.

Who loves ya Baby?

PROMISE TO TELL YA ALL ABOOT IT!

Three Final Tables: and is my AK good? revisited

2007-10-16T19:32:00.000-07:00

"Don't play the cards, baby, play the player": Scotty Nguyen

Now that I've set the tone, I offer an apology for few and far between blogs. Life appears back to normal, and I can ruminate and masticate on the ups and down of my secret second life and alter ago PokerMonster more often again.

This one is entitled Three Final Tables to discuss three recent scenarios, two from online play, one from yesterday's live game. Each has a crucially different dynamic: the first, from a $6 online bounty game where I came to the final table the chip leader with cheap blinds, the second
from a tight $100+9 online game where only the final table pays out and the bubble lasted until the blinds were 400/800 with me holding average chip stack of 20,000, and yesterdays live $50+10 where the bubble burst at 1000/2000 blinds, similar average, but yours truly was again the big stack. In order we have big stack low pressure, small stack high pressure, and big stack high pressure, all creating different needs and dynamics.

Lets talk a little bit about the road to the chip lead at the final last night, a lesson in patience, luck, and making huge and correct preflop decisions.

Yesterday was a special event. Dub's birthday present was a freeroll into his first live $50+10. The guy has never paid more than $10.00 and only plays poker online except for the home game. By luck of the draw, I, Dub, and Bri, another live MTT virgin from the home game, whom we affectionately call Go Big or Go Home Bri, are all at the same starting table. Al found his way on another table, and Mag, our fifth who has played this MTT once, at a third.

Dub's game style is tight and patient. Bri is, when on, a loose-aggressive tactician. Both are a bit intimidated by the process, and are making mistakes. Dub is not prepared to steal a pot without a hand. Bri is making bets post flop, but small ones, too small to get respect. It's as if they are playing not to lose, not to be the first of the group out, but I am playing to chip up in PokerMonster style (Al will be in fact the first out when he flops two pair and pays off a set).

Dub still thinks Phil Gordon offers good advice, but Dub's tight image will equal one small pot taken down when his AK hits a AA6 board and he gets no takers.
.
PokerMonster is taking PokerMonster's advice and is playing scary. I am unpredictable.

In early position with 66, I limp in for 50 chips. A young player in position raises to 300 and I show him the 66 and tell him his 77 is good. One rotation of blinds later, I now have 44 in early position and limp in. Same player raises to 200, and I make the call. We check check on a 3 9 10 board, and then I check the 3 turn, let him bet 375, and check-raise him to 1200. I show my 44 after he folds.

Hands like that intimidate the hell out of players.

A loose aggressive player (a young, tall guy with a touque on: aka TT) has been up and down, he is currently up, and with blinds of 50/100 he minraises to 200. I see AQ in the BB and raise to 700 and he makes the call. The flop is 3 8 9 and I check. He bets 500 and I call. I think he has nothing anyway, but a Q hits the board on the turn and I push my 2500 or so chips all in and he has to fold.

I have successfully established table image by being able to outplay and outmanage out of position. Scary Image. TT will generally stay out of my way from now on. Others will learn from my management of TT.

TT has an interesting strategy which works well from him. Once the blinds get a little pricier, and the table rarely affords a cheap flop, on two occasions in early position he will limp in with KK and successfully trap a raiser and take his chips.

The result is that few people want to raise TT's limp ins for fear of a trap. This enables TT to see cheap flops with more hands, and he will catch big flops with garbage hands like Q8 and keep chipping up. This is his way of managing the table. More on him later.

At the first break I am chipped up to 5125, or doubled up (through grinding out pots, my preferred method over one big pot) while Al is out, dub has 1600, Bri 850, and Mag 850 (a bad beat hurt Mag I am told). Because its Dub's birthday, I will double him up early after the break after my limped in sooted A7 catches a flush draw, and he check raises me all in after betting 600 on the flop. Dub is a check raising bastard, and he will always have top pair when he makes this move, but I was 40% to suck out, it was his birthday, and I can afford it.

The consequence of my birthday gift was to put me in a tighter position and see very ew flops as I watch the table work. At this time I am exposed to the game of a player to TT's left, a 30-something guy with baseball cap, glasses, and bad goatee, aka Beard Bad, who had limped in UTG, and played a hand with TT's limp in. The flop had been A 5 3 and both checked. the turn was a 4 and Beard Bad min-check raised TT from 500 to 1000 for a call, with 3 diamonds on board. With a 4th diamond, they both slow down, and Beard Bad's 5-3 off suit falls to TT's set of 4s, no diamonds either.

5 -3 off suit limps in UTG? That is a player with no standards whatsoever. More on Beard Bad later. Fun to come.

I will, eventually, and just before the next break, manage to steal my way into reasonable shape, ultimately pushing 77 all in from the SB against a limp in. I got a feel she had a good starting hand that needed a flop, and therefore I could steal, and she might call for a coin flip. She called QK and didn't catch up, putting my at 9100 at the break, about to pay the BB of 600. Dub would make steal attempts too, end wind up getting a loose call against his 10J sooted-second worst hand in poker-and busting out. Dub usually knows when to pick his all-in spots, but he is very literally a fish out of water in this game.

TT has at this point chipped up to at least 25,000 chips, and he enjoyed the slower pace of 150/300/25 and 200/400/50 levels before the break. TT would fail to make the more aggressive adjustment. He would continue to limp in, and face frequent and significant pre-flop raises. He seemed to have no concept of folding to these raises. He would routinely make obvious feeler bets like 1000 into pots of 6000 or so after the flop and get raised big and have to fold. He would refuse to change his game, and he never presented the tells of strength that intimidated others. He was simply outplayed hand after hand and soon he was slowed to a crawl with a fraction of the stack he had built. When the table broke up I would not see him again.

My time after the 2nd break was miserable. No cards. Fold fold fold. With 30 to go and 9100 chips, I wanted to make some hands but it didn't happen. The table breaks up just after I paid the BB and had 3400 chips left with blinds of 400/800/100 ante and my new table position gave me only 4 hands until I paid the blinds again with the price going up.

Playing like Al gave me an Al like stack, but I don't wasn't about to pay off another 1800 chips through the blinds and have a 1600 chip stack. I employ a variant on my old ploy, the blind all in. I simply pretended to look at my hands and pushed the chips in.

Again, the glory of the blind all in is you can't give off any tells if you don't know what you have.

I happened to have 83 off-suit, and happened to get double-lucky: AK protected his hand with a 12000 chip all in and I caught my 8 to pull up to 8000 chips. Woo Hoo!

hand 1

In the BB, my crazy-go-nuts play and still short stack leads to everyone folding to the sb, who simply calls. I have the same hand, 83. I check for a flop. the SB puts 3000 out quickly, but I get a sense this was his intended move all along. I go all in with a 3 7 9 flop and he can't call. I show the 3 and he confirms my pair was good. I now have over 12,000 chips.

hand 2

After folding the SB, Beard Bad comes in early with a raise to 2500, and everyone folds to the man to my right, who goes immediately all in. I look down at my cards. AQ clubs. I immediately want a chip count on the original raiser, and in asking, I discover its Beard Bad! "Oh,, its you!" I declare with delight, and the chip count process confirms to me Beard Bad is weak as a kitten. When I call, the man to my right says good call, but I know it was a good call. he had put Beard Bad on a typical hand for Beard Bad, and he was better.

Now, the SB, a very short stack with only 1000 chips left to put in, makes an instant call, and I would too with the prospect of 6x his terrible stack being offered up and only two expected hands to beat.

Inexplicably, Beard Bad calls, and heres what we have, in order of who acted first:

Beard Bad has J 8 clubs (?!?!?!?!?)
Man to my right, AJ hearts (!!!!!!!!!!!)
PokerMonster has AQ clubs (WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO)
SB has K6 off suit (the only truly live cards in the bunch).

There are THREE pots, the small main pot of about 8000 for the SB, the first side pot of 32000 which is the top of my stack, and the second side pot of 3200 between Beard Bad and AJ. AJ is the only one with chips left of about 6000 not in the pot.

The flop is 8 4 9 (oh no!)(I'm not panicking)
The turn is a K (SB has made top pair, and the A is unlikely to hit, but I don't care about SB. I;m still not panicking...?)
The river is a gorgeous Noble Lady, the Q of Diamonds.

It will take them about 5 minutes between the dealer and the pit boss to sort out the pots. No one was knocked out, but I raked in the massive 32000 side pot.

hand 4

I'm not done. My recollection is foggy, but it might be 2 hands later when beard Bad, UTG, pushes his last 3000 into the pot. Play folds to me and with AK diamonds, say to Beard Bad, VERY casually, "I owe you a call", and push a stack of 10 1000 chip yellows into the pot.

And then something very interesting happens.

The BB goes all in.

The BB has a LOT of chips.

I have a fair amount to think about. I ask for a count, and his chips move forward and the dealer starts counting. I start talking about that I have a strong hand, not sure I can lay this down, etc etc, and I get a signal. Our all-in big stack looks concerned. I'm on a rush. I have a big hand. I make a huge call.

The BB has AQ.
Beard Bad has Q 8.

I had mislead the BB with my casual comment suggesting a loose call, and PokerMonster is a HUGE favorite. I don't care about Beard Bad's live 8. The odds calculator puts AQ at 12.8% to win the pot, and thats a 55,000 chip pot between us. The board hits all small cards, no 8, and I rake it all, knocking both players to the rail.

Hand 6

In 6 hands, I went from 3100 to 64000 chips, and 2 to 1 chip lead on any player at any table.

I have also managed to make mincemeat of the survivors of my massive rush. I will cruise gently and manage my stack while they grind precariously, step by step, to the bubble as blinds rise to 1000/2000. I will eventually burst the bubble when a 7000 raise leads to a 17000 all in reraise and I wake up in the BB with AA and push all in, pushing the raiser out with his 77 and knocking the all in QQ out for a stack of 90000 chips, and a 3-1 lead to open the final table.

So what if I didn't win hand at the final table and crashed and burned in 5th? From worst to first in 6 hands? The final table's a freeroll, baby.

We'll talk about that final table and the others later. Maybe after tomorrow's game.

The Lady of Luck loves ya, baby!

Chapter 9 point sumpin': More Final Table Talk

2007-09-27T20:16:00.000-07:00

Hey ladies and gents. Bit tired today, working two jobs and all that. Made 4th at the final table yesterday, after walking in 40 minutes late for the tourney due to job #1, and, before I talk about some fine points of final table play, I just want to point out some awful mistakes I saw along the way.

Lets start with a "pot odds" "obligatory" call, discussed in detail in chapter 8.1, August 24. Wow this was a bonehead, "pot odds" call.

The player a few chairs to my left has been down on his luck and short stacked FOREVER. But he seems to have found a knack for survival, and is still here with 3000 chips after winning a pot from the BB with only 1/2 the BB left for s atck not so long ago. He may be desperate, but he has been playing survival poker well. When 3 players, including me fold to him, and 4 left at the table, he pushes his chips in, and the players fold to the BB.

The BB has 1500 committed to the pot, and with the SB, antes and the short stack's raise also in, the pot is 6200, leaving him 1500 chips to call for a pot of 7700, or what Mike Sexton would describe as 4:1 on his money.

But the BB has only 7000 chips left after making the call, and he has, well, OMG at least its suited..... 2 3 clubs. At least he goes into the tank, but he calls, strictly on pot odds. No other thought required, although he hates himself.

And when he winds up against JJ, I can't help but criticize his bonehead play. BECAUSE HE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE 1500 MORE. It's not like I put the short stack on JJ here, although he has often made his moves with any PPs, putting him on a hand is a factor.

If our caller had analyzed the short stack's game at all, it is clear he would push at least 50% of the time with a pocket pair, and the other 50% of the time, the short stack is guaranteed to have two overcards on against his miserable 2 3. ANY PP has 2 3 dominated to a 80% or better chance to win at least, and the only thing that gives 2 3 any hope is being a suited connector hand offering a 3% flush or 3% straight possibility. If we make the short stack have AJ, AJ is a 61% dominating hand, 63% if one card is a club. Similarly, if the short stack has one club in his PP, give his odds 2% more, and that is a 50/50 proposition too. A bigger suited connector of a different suit has 64% odds to beat 2 3 clubs and if clubs as well, gets 66% to win

So, if 50% of the time I am dominated by a PP and 19% to win, and the other 50% of the time I am 33% to win against ANY TWO RANDOM CARDS, I have 26% chance to win 6200 chips for another investment of 1500. Lets add to this the fact that the SB only pays 500 in this structure at my casino, and we are 8 handed, meaning 8 full hands until I have to pay a BB again. I am 74% likely to have 7000 chips left at the end of the hand, 26% likely to have 15700, and folding guarantees me 8500 in chips with a cheap SB which doesn't need protection.

Lets just call this "pot odds" vs "Al's Law". You will remember Al is the master of the short stack. Al folds here and so do I. We are in the final 16, and I may need 8500 chips to force a big stack in the BB to lay down when I have to steal to survive. 7000 or less might not cut it. And if I do get action when I get a hand, I want as big a stack as I possible doubled up.

Miller and Sklansky might break this down into "EV" values. If I am 25% likely to win 6200, my expected value for playing is 1/4 the profit, or 1550 in chips, almost precisely the cost of my investment. It is equally "profitable" to lay the hand down. EV says your move is good either way, basically, but of course an EV analysis is a cash game concept based strictly on probabilities, without any real consideration for the consequences of losing chips you can't rebuy. If you are in this scenario 4 times, it will pay of one of those 4 times, resulting in even money. Each time you will invest 1500 chips, for a total of 6,000, and one of those times you will get a return of 6200.

If you add "Al's Law" to an EV analysis, this is an easy laydown. If you put the pusher on a PP, and there was enough chat between them to get a clue, EV drops to 1178, making folding the More profitable move. You are 76 to 81% LIKELY (the different and worse value being attributed to a successful read that he has a PP) to simply lose another 1500 chips you can't afford to lose. If you had 25,000 chips, the price sounds fairer, but even so, with at best 33% to win (assuming an accurate read he has two open overcards and not a PP) you may knock a player out and get that much closer to the final table, you are still 66% likely to improve the fortunes of a player who has survival skills and could become a dangerous opponent later should this double up set him up for another one which turns him into a contender.

So, our short stack survivor limped into the final table with about 11,000 chips, and our "pot odds" caller who felt the need to defend his call from my criticism in the bathroom at the break, busted out in 13th.

I, on the other hand, played the final 20 patiently, having doubled through with QQ to get there with 20,000. After dropping to 15,000 for having nothing (and taking adavantage of some steal opportunities in the tightness of the final 20 to hold onto 15,000) I managed to double through again raising with AJ all in from the button, and persuading the BB to call by telling him the truth, that I had my "Lucky Hand". Her put all his chips in with QK and I rivered a J I didn't need.

And a marvelous thing then happened. I and the player to my right both had the big stacks at the table, he 40,000, me about 32,000, and we protected each others' blinds from steals as a result. In addition, my opponent having caught a swing of luck, knew he was good to go to the final and pretty much stopped playing. So when I was in the BB, everyone folded to us, and my chip leader without position gave me 3 walks in a row to snatch the blinds and antes for free.

As another example, this time from the correct side of "pot odds" play, at our final table a medium stack, the same fellow I just spoke about who gave me 3 passes on my BB at the prior table, who I know tends to raise with solid hands, especially in poor position, raises to 7000 with blinds of 1500/3000 in early position. He has about 21000 left, and the SB, to whom we all fold, is the chip leader and he asks for the count. He talks too much, and, while it is clear he has a hand, he is out of position, and elects to make the call, knowing the BB, also a big stack, has fantastic odds to call 4000 more and see a flop. He knows this because he says so, and I get a tell from him that he is deliberately building a bigger pot: in fact, maybe he is this clever, even if he shouldn't think aloud so much: He has built a pot size which exactly matches the remaining chips of the original raiser. The BB, a pregnant woman whom the people at her table have been respecting (for her game, not her condition) makes the call anyway, and why not, she is adding 4000 chips to a 18,000 chip pot, or 4.5 to 1 on her money, as Mr. Sexton is fond of announcing.

Lets keep in mind that this is NOT a showdown situation, all players can afford to fold, and the BB (Baby Bearer?) can flop huge with any two cards, possibly on a flop where either other player has top pair.

If I am the BB with her stack, I will lay down trash, but call any reasonable hand, and this includes some pretty weak hands like 10 7, J 5, just because a BB special cannot be read. If I have a HAND here, one capable of trapping with, like KK or QQ, or one with big flop potential, I can make a call here that LOOKS LIKE a simple pot odds call too and disguise my hand. In this scenario, a little PP make a perfect disguised call which could lead to a huge flop and big fireworks. In other words, the BB has CORRECTLY used pot odds to either see a cheap flop in a big pot or lay a huge trap in a pot that the original raiser may be very tempted to take a stab at, given that he can make a post flop bet in position in an amount which may be difficult to call, unless his opponents are in fact trapping.

Alas, if the BB was attempting a trap, we shall never know, as the SB who had been laying too much of a trap himself with his words and actions, makes the pot sized bet as first to act post flop, with a K high flop, and everyone folded. He will show QK. Clearly he isn't the sneaky, silent type, but taking a nice pot down after a nice flop is a solid conservative play that avoids, say, luring JJ to bet the flop and go all in only to catch his 2 outer or whatever. I think I check raise or bet a little less on the flop just in case someone has a trap to spring on me, like AK, AA or a lucky set on the flop.

While our talkative SB player with the big stack has been catching way to much luck, I think by talking too much, he missed an opportunity to win the bigger pot. QK is certainly a calling hand from the SB in that situation, and not likely a raising hand given the reputation of the original raiser and the so-so quality of QK as a showdown hand. You want to see a flop with it, and you want some indication of where you stand. PokerMonster makes a quiet call, and probably will check raise on that flop unless one of my opponents demonstrates a post flop tell that tells me top pair Q kicker is in trouble.

And here's another "pot odds" laydown, again at the final table, and this time I am in the hot seat, in the SB with 35000 chips, blinds 1500/3000 and the same Survivor who got 23 to call his JJ comes in for all his chips, 9000. I have QJ off suit, and strongly suspect I have two over or two live. A little bird is saying Survivor has a little PP. There is another short stack with 20,000 in the BB. I am looking at a pot of 15000, an investment of 7500, and its is just as likely my opponent has a modest Ace, giving me 42% to win, or a modest PP, offering me two overs and a coinflip, and some possibility that I am dominated for only 30% to win. Let's say the proportions are 45/45/10 respectively, but I really have a hunch he has a small PP. The less informed consideration of my odds still offers me odds of over 40% to win, if I can isolate from the BB. If I just call, I risk inviting the BB in, whom I know is something of an odds player, a good, tight player, but still one with a little less complication to his game than mine. He is a regular best noted for Phil Hellmuth-like rants after going in with the best of it and losing to suckouts, a regular occurrence. He will eventually go out of this final table calling a 95 sooted steal all in on his blind holding AK and watching both the 9 and the 5 hit.

But back to this situation. 43% heads up with Survivor minimum, very likely a coinflip and 3 to1 on my "money".

It's not money. My money is waiting for me at the cashier once I take this tourney down or bust out trying.

These are tournament chips I have earn back if I am wrong. Survivor has shown a knack for surviving. I don't want him to have 22,500 chips, and Ranting Man still has to act. A three way pot drops me down to 33% to win what is now a very large pot, and I won't have position or know where I stand post flop. My 33% to win is 20% to manifest itself on the flop. I can read my opponent but not the top 8 cards remaining in the deck. Just a call offers Ranting Man 6000 to pay to win 22,500, even better odds. A raise could run into something I don't want, and I'd prefer to keep Ranting Man small, too, not potentially double him up on an investment of 6000 chips or close to triple him up and cripple myself trying to push him out with Q high. Mike Sexton will also not tell you to bust out holding Q high. He is SO CONFLICTED.

I am less conflicted.

I fold.

BB calls with A8. I was dead right on my read of Survivor. He has 55. Running this scenario on the odds computer puts me at 37.1% to win if I play and Survivor calls. I would have to hit a J or Q while avoiding an A, 5 or, 8 8 to win. Given that Survivor may have read a call as a pot odds call, he may have pushed up with A high sensing weakness too. Losing this hand could have meant losing 7500 or 20,000 of my 35,000.

How was I to know the flop would have both a Q and a J? A8 can't catch up, and Survivor doubles up, but I still have 35,000 chips. I am an advocate of playing to win, but playing to win means playing smart not just getting lucky. I have plenty of chips to wait for better opportunities, and to ride out other busts if those opportunities don't materialize. In this case, my 35000 chips were enough to crash into 4th, even if good cards never materialized.

Here is another huge mistake. We are back to the final 20. There is a large fellow in seat one with a modest stack of about 11,000.00. In seat one, the dealer is to your right and you really can't see the players in seats 8, 9 and 10. Seat 8 had raised to 3700. Seat 10 had called. (The blinds had been 500/1000 at the time). Big #1 can't see that Seat 10 only has 5000 left. Seat #1 goes all in, and then looks sick while seat 10 goes in the tank after seat 8 folds.

Big #1 has 44. He was trying to re-raise-steal, I presume. Seat 10 calls with K J or similar, and catches up to 44 to double up while Big #1 cripples up. Just plain dumb.

Not only does the chip count request slow things down, and gets information not only in chip stack size but your opponent's confidence level, but you shouldn't even need the information here to lay down 44, or maybe just call. I don't think it is a very profitable call, with only 11% to catch your set while being out of position against players you can't even see, given the commitment to the flop is already 30% of your stack.

Player 8 may have a hand, or have attempted to steal. Player 10 may have a calling hand, or a trapping hand, or just intends to outplay the raiser postflop. But it is almost guaranteed that one of those two people have a good hand, and Big #1 has made a WEAK BET. It was OBVIOUS he was stealing the moment I put his chips in. He had a look of terror on his face. You didn't need to see him to figure out this bet was weak.

Compare this to our analysis of Al's bustout with QQ not so long ago, when Al and I both analyzed his opponent to have KK, Al just a second too late to avoid making the call. There is a clear distinction between the "I dare you to call" all-in and the "I'm fed up with losing hands" all-in. I recall such an all-in from a player at my prior table earlier in the game yesterday. He had come to my table, a table of tighter, more solid players (a bit ABC, and exploitable, but a strong table) with a very big stack. No matter what he did, he couldn't seem to win a hand. It had hurt further that he had been caught raising in early position with a weak sooted Ace early at the table, damaging his image. His raises kept getting action, and he kept missing flops and being outplayed postflop. He was a very average stack quite soon.

When he opened the pot with 3x the blind and QK spades, he got a raise and a call, and, clearly exasperated, went all in. He got two callers, one was AK, the other a desperation J9. He got very lucky J 9 on the flop, (lucky?) and 10 on the river to catch a straight and suck out both the main and side pots.

Get to know the look of the frustrated player pushing all in.

I had to criticize Big #1 for his bonehead play. This is the final 20, and people make moves. He was guaranteed one caller, and like my last example, could have gotten two. 44 is 56% to win against ANY RANDOM HAND (including A-5 2, A-5 3 A-5 4, 2 3, 3 3, 2 2 a large number of hands it dominates) but down to a pure coin flip against two overcards, and in 18% territory against another PP. Again, the RANGE OF HANDS 44 will be up against here, is 50% likely a coinflip, and 50% likely a better PP. Our man had 34% chance to win the pot, since he had NO CHANCE of stealing preflop. But he thought he had a "legitimate hand", he whined against the fury of my scorn.

Big #1 will limp into the final table with 9000 chips and walk into my KK in the SB with Q 10 and bust out 9th.

You can play like Al, or play like the PokerMonster, but either way, the key to getting to the final table is to THINK THROUGH ALL MOVES and PICK YOUR SPOTS. If you are the first to act, bet according to the chip stacks of those in front of you and your goal, whether it be stealing or looking for action. If a raise comes to you and you see good looking cards, use the information weapons at your disposal to assess your situation. Twice at the final table yesterday, I sat in the BB against a raise and a call, looked down at something playable QK and KJ, and simply had to lay down and let the to players duke it out. Both times I would have been dominated had I played.

If we go back to my AJ double up, since I knew my opponent was unsure, I threw in a little speech about my "lucky hand", which sounds like I was warning him to off to fold, like In didn't want a call. I was, and that was what was so deceptive. I knew I was ahead because of his actions, and enticed the call expecting I had him dominated, and was close to right. Perhaps my hand was "lucky" because it needed a lucky flop, or perhaps it was a big PP which had a knack for attracting action and holding up, like QQ. I happen to have a whole range of "lucky hands", after all, it simply happens that my AJ has the additional cache of busting KK and AK in 30% situations. I wanted a call here, as I liked my odds of getting the double up I knew I needed for the final table.

And when the tournament director gave me credit for my consistency in reaching deep into final tables as I walked to the cashier to claim my prize, I can tell you it is the strength of my play in these crucial times leading up to that final table which have led to these results. Part of this is simply the understanding that comes with experience with a particular format of a tournament, to know exactly where I am at at any given time in the game, what I need to do next, and when I need to do it. Add to this finding the players and situations to exploit to get it done, and, as long as my head is in the game, and I avoid major suckouts, I get it done.

Okay, we took a step back, so now a step forward. We've made it to the final. Now fastforward. I have already blogged talked about early final table play. To summarize my advice: pick your spots while the short stacks get picked off, just like along the road to the final table, the difference being the table is big again until these players are out and hand quality has to be premium to very good in likely showdown situations. Let's now put us at my final table yesterday, down to 6 players.

Whether the final table is the more-action oriented casino weekly with the blinds and antes getting pricey, or the typical on line MTT with less pressure, there is now a lull, a brief time where chip stacks are relatively even, and everyone can afford the blinds and antes.

There is usually one or two bigger stacks and then the balance of stacks will be about the same. In the typical $100+9 online game with 100+ players and 2500 in starting chips, and this similar casino game, the decent stacks are now in the 30,000 to 40,000 range, a big stack may have 60,000 or more. At the casino, we are probably at 1000/2000 or 1500/3000 levels at this point. The average stack is only 10 x to 15 x the BB, but still can afford to fold that BB. Online, the level may be at 600/1200 or 800/1600, and we of course will see more hands between level increases in the online game, especially since we are 6 handed and the computer reshuffles a new hand in 3 seconds not 30. If you get a quality live dealer, that may be 20 seconds, and we had a great one last night, but the pace remains incomparable. You will simply have fewer hands to play in this time between 6 remaining and 4 in a live game while the level increases push at the same time against keeping all 6 alive. In either game, however, that slow down time is there, and is there to be exploited.

In this lull period, pots will shrink in size. Limp-ins and modest raises will be more common than all-in moves. SB and BB will often be heads up in unraised pots playing trash against trash.

In spite of the sudden relaxation of the game, this is both a fun time and a crucial time. If I am a big stack, I want to manage the smaller stacks and my own stack. If I just play tight and preserve my stack, others will catch up. If I am in the middle, I want to get big without getting into trouble.

Because we are now 6, 5, 4 handed, SB and BB come around quickly, and no one is going to give you action for a big pot when you have QQ anyway, You have to play your best poker here. Sorry Al, better get that stamina up so you are fresh for the final 6 next Monday.

All your opponents are good players, they deserve your respect. All have the same goal, to get someone else eliminated before them. Accumulating chips is a better strategy than simply being blinded and anted off while others play. As I discussed in my review of several final tables recently, the fatigue factor, present online as well, is huge live. Poker faces disappear, and if you are alert, you will be able to notice that they can't hide their fear or disappointment in their cards or the flop, or confidence, as well as before.

Lets also keep in mind that this lull in tournament pressure will not last forever. At the casino, we will be bank under the pressure of the blinds and antes after 20 minutes of this maybe 30, amounting to 12 to 18 hands, where you will be BB 3 times or likely more given that others will be eliminated. In the on-line game, the pressure is different. You have to convince your opponents to pay off worthwhile pots.

Either way, this amounts to two things: loosening up your starting hand requirements, playing more pots, seeing more flops, and playing solid trapping plays when you catch big flops and solid betting plays when you see an opportunity to take a pot down with weak cards or a weak flop yourself. This time of the tournament is the very element of the game of poker. Preflop and post flop decision making, and making the plays which count. It is real easy to call an all-in with KK. It is harder to play KK in a limped in pot and trap for value while protecting it too. Time to play your complete game. THIS is the time when image will come into play when you need a big laydown to survive a bluff for a pot you must win, when your poker face must be inscrutable, when you can munch on your fries non-nonchalantly while your opponent is in the tank sweating and wringing his hands over your bet, or go into acting mode to sell weakness to add value to your huge flop. In other words, all of the skills I have already discussed at length in prior blogs, playing out of position, playing out of the blinds, reads, tells, disguises, etc. have to be available to succeed at this point in the game, as opposed to merely treading water or watching your stack disappear through mistakes.

My experience playing in 10 and 6 seat SNGs, and playing the 6-8 player home game, which is a short stacked game, has been my best training ground for playing in this particular portion of the final table.

Here, not only am I looking to play my often discussed "mixed paint" and small PP's, usually on raises, but I want to mix my play up, raising with odd hands and limping with big ones. By big ones, I am talking about PPs, not big aces. You can trap in a small pot with a big BB, but you have to raise a decent ace or decent mixed paint, just so the SB and BB don't get a cheap look at a flop and catch something underneath. AJ has more value as a steal or a call in position a raised pot, than trying to trap with it in a small one. I have seen people play AK traps here, but I'm not fond of losing with AK to 10 7 which never would have seen a flop if I'd protected my hand.

In addition, I am going to play a lot more hands here. K- sooted and Q - sooted with kickers 7 and above will be played. I am back to interesting cards, like 10 9 sooted or J 9 or 7 8, hands I haven't been able to play since crisis time started. I want to see a flop with these hands, cheaply or for a price I can control, and with position on likely opponents.

I will feel more comfortable limping these hands in and playing against the blinds because these hands operate similarly to BB specials. They connect into medium flops, and often for big draws or made hands, which someone with middle or top pair from a blind might bet into. They can be played against modest raises when you have the chips to call, since, depending on the player, whom you should know real well by now, may very well be playing as I suggested, raising high cards while trapping with PPs, allowing you to see flop which may be much more friendly to your middle connected and semi-connected cards than AQ for the former, and letting you play a drawing hand capable of beating AA or KK trying to slow play trap for the latter.

To practice with these hands and this style or more open, creative play, the most obvious opportunity is the 6 man SNG online. I find the $10 games to offer up a nice range of decent short table opponents, and the turbo games (5 minute levels) to best simulate short final table pressure. A $5 SNG is a cheap place to start to build up the more creative side of your short-handed game with lesser opponents, but you will learn nothing playing cheaper except that you don't enjoy playing with rookies.

Okay, its a long blog, and this is only an introduction to this portion of the final table. Tomorrow is another day. And Saturday is another tournament. And open, creative, short table play is probably a book unto itself.

And the Lady of Luck is checking the time, sitting in the passenger seat of my car with the engine running, all dressed up with someplace to go, while I chat with you guys....

A quick note while I am away

2007-09-25T19:26:00.000-07:00

Hey all, or some, or none! My last blog seems to leave you hanging on a line, and then life intervened. The Poker Monster is yet to turn pro. I has a day job, and it's occupied too much of my time lately. Not enough poker for me, although I do promote a little balance in my life. There are other things like than work, poker, and blogging...

So I'm making excuses while promising to do some blogging this week to talk more about either the last big tourney (subtitled how I went from suckout to big stack bully and back down to earth in 5 short hours) or more final table discussion, or both.

In the meantime, a question to my readers. I have found, as a matter of routine, that following a very big payday such as the $4000 made in two days 2 weeks ago, that I become a bad beat magnet for some time after. I once suffered a full month of putting my chips in with the best and seeing river after river catch lucky.

This past week it was flopping a set of 10s calling a small raise with 10 10, A high, and seeing my opponent cash in-all in catching one of 4 Queens to river a straight, yesterday it was slow-trapping AA from UTG against AK on a K 8 8 flop, knowing I was still good on the turn card J, and then having to slow down and pay a value bet of 500 on the river K to make his 2 outer full house to cripple my stack, on only the second hand I'd played post flop, and knowing that any other card on the river would have allowed me to trap him for a double up....

Sigh. Bad beat stories are not for sharing, and I WON'T SHARE my story about how my quad Aces got beat by a Royal flush once, but I do ask of you all....any one else share this experience of a big win/bad beat dry spell. We are all looking for the ghosts in the machine, after all, that unifying theory of poker which explains the universe...I invite your comments.

That Lady of Luck, until then, remains a pleasant if capricious enigma.

PM

Another Interlude: Big Tournament and Small Tournament Stories: Bluffs, Mistakes, Suckouts, Big Stack Glory....and more? We'll see.

2007-09-17T20:58:00.000-07:00

Hello, to both my small loyal following and any lucky or unlucky fool who has stumbled upon me. I refrained from wasting my poker stories in the casino bathroom tonight. You are the beneficiary of my restraint.

Yes, I busted out early tonight. Some crackerjack thinks its a smart thing to do to limp AA UTG with blinds of 50/100. To a minraise of 200, I decide to push around the raising short stack when I wake up in the SB with 10 10. To protect in, I go all in assuming the BB and the limper can't call 3500 chips. Eventually, I will have to push with A high UTG again, and fall to quad 7's in a otherwise happy 3-pot. The minraise trap with AA UTG works well at an aggressive table in crisis time, but is a sure way to get a 5 way pot out of position on a scary board in the first hour. I don't know how many times AA has in fact fallen to a BB special 2 pair by limping in and getting no raises. Did someone at the back of the room say "every time"? I think so. You can't remotely know where you stand post flop letting two random cards see a flop. You want to rely on 3 random cards on the flop, not fear them. Gah. See earlier blogs on BB specials. Terrible play got rewarded.

Overplay 10 10? Push early with A high UTG short stacked and fall to a monster hand in a three-way pot? Is there an echo here? Oh yeah, that was my fate on Saturday. But that was after over 7 hours of poker, not one, and there is a lot to tell and a lot for us both to learn from. I learn a lot by reviewing and reliving my war stories, and if you get something out of it too, fantastic. Bad poker stories are pretty boring, except to the addicted.

There were three young buddies at my table this evening all live MTT newbies. Two made some mistakes and busted out early, but the third got short stacked, and then settled down. First live tourney for all three, and for I know, the last short stacked, who pushed his chips in with AQ diamonds on a 10 high 2 D flop, got called loose by AQ off suit, and freerolled the 3 of diamonds on the turn to chip up, is still sitting at the table now and I'm chatting with you guys. I could tell from the three of them that he was the most ready. One of them overplayed 10J, caught a 10 high flop, and paid off a very well handled short stack holding KK, to go short and out. Amigo 3 seemed to have the concept of the bet preflop which leaves enough in the stack for
a credible bet postflop.

Amigo #1 got busted first, but had the sense to glom onto me and ask questions. This blog really is for you guys, who play with your buddies, play online, see live tournaments on TV, and want to, but don't know how to, make the transition. When I played my first live tournament a few months ago (has it really been just a few months?) I knew I had the math and the understanding of the game to do well, but, of course, my live play reading skills were in infancy and my abilities to disguise big preflop or post flop hands to maximize value or to sell a hand and make a huge bluff or semi-bluff pay off were not there.

PokerMonster does not bluff very often. I do not consider a good read of weakness followed by a correct bet that correctly matches the point where your opponent can't call, without making so large a bet that it is suspicious or so small it must be called, a "bluff". It is as legitimate a poker play as slowplaying a monster flop. Betting correctly is betting correctly, whether you hold the goods or not. Period. Sklansky and Miller's book on poker theory may be a cash-based theory book, but it is all about the math behind the correct bet. Slide that "pot odds" and EV based math into the additional factors in play in a tournament, and you have it made.

As an example, let's say I have AK, the flop comes K 8 9 two diamonds, I am not sooted, it is early in the tournament, the price preflop was only 10% of two equal stacks, 150 each, and I am reasonably sure the player, who I have yet to fully figure out, quite possibly called my initial small raise with a decent suited Ace. I am concerned about the flush draw, but I would also like to see some additional payment, as well as additional assurance I have someone on the hand I suspect. A little more money for the short term, a little information for the long term.

If I, as first to act into a 300 pot, make a 200 bet, I am offering my opponent a price of 200 to make 500, or roughly the same odds as him MAKING THE FLUSH BY THE FLOP. In a cash game, that is an easy call. In a tournament with starting chips of 1500, I have my man on the brink of calling and folding. Depending on the chip depth in the tournament and the size of the buy in, the opponent with the flush draw could (if very tight) fold, could (if he likes to double early, float, semi-bluff, or otherwise gamble ) raise me, perhaps all in, or (most cases) call. If we are in a 2500 chip game, the correct play is always to call, as the price is low enough to be basically risk-free in the long term game. 2150 left offers me plenty more flops with leisurely levels and cheap blinds. Had I made a 400 bet in a 1500 game or a 500 bet in a 2500 game, those bets are a pretty big commitment for anyone playing anything with a hefty buy-in, and could induce a flush draw gamble in a lower priced game.

What is interesting here is that a very good player with Ace-diamonds in position could still push that flush draw depending on where he thinks he is in the hand. That very good player will read, from my various post flop bet options:

200: my opponent is either unsure of himself, making a continuation bet, or caught a huge flop (KK hits set) and is betting for value, and may not realize he just offered me the correct odds to call my monster draw to the nuts;
300: (bet pot button on line). This is an amateur bet by an amateur player. He may or may not have caught the flop, and if he did he has a pair only.
400 or 500: My opponent caught his K, and it trying to take the pot down right now. He is not willing to gamble with the prospect of a flush beating his AK or AA. What he has is obvious. I am beat now.
A check on the flop? No way do I offer a free card here without any information back to see where I stand. K high no draw? Sure, I can check trap post flop.

That player will respond to these bets with the following variety of moves:

200: No matter what he has, he is offering me the right odds to beat him. I don't have enough information to know if he has nothing, top pair, or a set. IF I put him on a continuation bet (and both live and online there are serious tells available), I may just push the envelope with a bet which commits us both to the pot if he calls. IF I am at all unsure I just call.
300: Weak bet. Amateur player. He will not get away from his AK if he has it. Not enough information to know whether I have him beat already or whether I am 35% through 5. I am inclined call and see if he slows down on the turn, and this will dictate my next move.
400 or 500: How did he know I had two diamonds? If I feel lucky, lets rumble! If not, I fold.
no way I check here, but if I did, it would because I expect my opponent to stab at the pot, and would do so to check-raise, not float call. If I attempt to represent the flush draw when my opponent has the flush draw, he will see right through me and take the opportunity to check-check to the river as I foolishly attempt to trap. With a flush draw in position, the free card is often the best move. Sklansky and Miller discuss this from a scrictly mathematical perspective in terms of a better positive EV. To hell with EV values and explaining that cash-game gobbledy-gook mumbo-jumbo here, they just mean you will more likely make more money hitting that draw later than bluffing at a small pot now in the long run based on pure probability. I add to that dry concept the additional effect that checking back offers me as the UTG AK no information to assess where I stand on the turn card. This is particularly so if a 10 high flush draw sees the K of diamonds on the turn, or my K high hits the A of diamonds (QJ diamonds being a legitimate in-position preflop call here as well). With AK out of position and blind to my opponent, I may bet the turn and bet the flop and not figure out how dead and stupid I am until I am raised for value or all in on the river. The check on the flop into the potential flush draw simply concedes all the power in the hand to the player with position. He can now REPRESENT the flush draw if it hits and he doesn't have it or represent something else when weakness is exposed.

Let me give you an example of s similar hand where a check conceded the power in the hand to me.

We are midstage in the weekly Monday game 300/600, and the button elects to limp as first in the pot, the SB calls and I, in the BB with 63 diamonds, check to see a free flop.

The flop is A diamond diamond. I have the flush draw and from the BB my special is completely disguised. I can check here and have nothing, a draw, or a monster BB special. When the SB checks, so do I and so does the button. I am delighted by the free card.

The turn is a black 7, SB checks, I check, button minbets 600. SB folds I make the cheap call.

The river is another black 7, there is almost 4000 in the pot, and my opponent looked perplexed by my call. He has no idea where he stands, so I elect to represent the 7 and push all-in for 6500 chips. He simply can't call and will show A5 hearts. I will muck and rake. I can make that representation because my call was as consistent with someone who thought his 7 might be good as the draw I was trying to hit, and the failure to bet on the flop allowed me to fully disguise my BB special.

As you can see, the value bet of 200, because it confuses a good opponent as to whether I am weak or strong (set vs continuation bet), and his best response tends to give away his hand, particularly if there is a pause to reflect on my bet. Beware, however, of the quick smooth call. That is not a flush draw. That could very well be a set. One of my poor rookies kept bluffing his A5 against a 10 7 7 flop through the river from the SB position and paid off 1000 chips to A7 smooth calling him.

The top pair checker in my example, in trying to "trap" with his weak ace, instead surrendered the lead, indeed his entire soul, to me. Ace high, SB and BB check to my limp, I BET to end the pot whether I have that A or not. Top pair is just too weak to let an opponent catch up.

With a value/blocking/information bet if 200, the information offered by the most likely response with the nut flush draw, a call, gives me the read which dictates my next move. This, subject to the pause test, which again is no guarantee. So much of this advice is player specific, and under no circumstances am I advocating following my "rules" like a puppet instead of keeping your head alive and in the game. If and when I am sure my opponent is drawing flush, I have just squeezed 350 of his chips in on what is really an 18% chance to beat me for the next turn. I need these extra chips, early and really can afford both the 18% risk and to fold if the next card should be a diamond, because I will already know I am very likely beat if it comes. The whole betting behaviour determines my read, not just whether he called or not.

Let's reverse this and put us in the driver's seat, first to act in a pot we raised, but this time we are holding the AQ diamonds. I have already told you what each of the above bets represent, but here we have to decide either how to win the pot on a semi-bluff, control the situation to get to the river nuts, or, as I did with the runner runner 7's find another way to pull the trigger correctly and win the pot.

What I don't recommend here is checking into the caller intending to check-call float to victory. Actually I do to a point, but I do like to bet my flush draws, especially if the board was unlikely to assist my opponent, like the 10 high draw our last of three new amigos doubled up with today. The check-call says "I have a flush draw" a little too much, killing your action if the turn card makes the flush and killing your investment when it doesn't. If the turn is bad for you, if you check he pushes you out with a bet he know you can't call with 18% and one card left if he has the hand. Of course, if he checks back, he may have been just bluffing the flop and you get either a diamond on the river of a chance to represent like you had it all along if the river hits you another way or could not have helped him.

I don't like the check simply because we do not have the information to KNOW whether a check-call is the right move until he responds to our check. If the game is live, and you have a tell to work with, a sneaky check followed by a suspicious bet that suggests strongly uncertainty in your opponent, may in fact provoke a check-raise semibluff from you that might have achieved both extra money in the pot and an opportunity to take the pot down. That check raise is tough though. At the very least, you have serious outs if called. These are moves that I have done and will still do. It is best if you have already done a good check raise move in the tournament, especially if you were trapping. See earlier blogs on play out of position for more details.

I find the SAFER and MORE EFFECTIVE move is to bet into the man in position. But how much? Keep in mind that in this scenario YOU have JUST A DRAW and you have no idea where you stand in the hand. You need information, you need to disguise the true nature of your hand, and you, above all else want to win the pot, not stumble into a big mistake. It is early, your opponent just called your initial raise, and he could have ANYTHING.

Obviously the BIG BET (400 or 500 or similar amounts which have now committed a 1/3 of your stack to the pot) can and will be raised all-in by a big flop hitter or overpair, committing you to a choice between 35% of your stack given up or 35% to win big, assuming he holds top pair only. On the other hand, a VERY GOOD player who has caught a set may just call you, because you sure haven't represented a flush draw here, you've represented AK or AA protecting itself, and the set WILL PAY OFF the misdirected flush. You may even be able to check check a bad turn card and see a free river simply because his JUST CALL has given away his hand. IT IS TOO BIG A BET TO JUST CALL WITH A FLUSH DRAW so he does not represent a flush draw with the smooth call. If you check the turn he MAY EVEN VALUE BET the turn (like 200 or 250) now offering you fantastic odds, given how deeply committed you are already. Well, pretty good odds. With 4 cards on the felt, only two diamonds, you have 2 dead diamonds which could pair the board and make his obvious full house. In fact, that big bet will more than likely expose the reality of you running into a monster flop pretty quick, like my all in with 10 10 exposed the AA without needing him to turn over his cards today, but this is a very expensive mistake.

Let's keep in mind that the is only 11% chance your opponent has FLOPPED A SET, but that big bet is designed to PUSH OUT an opponent, not improve value, so you wind up winning a small pot, overcommitted to a reraise if your opponent has AK, and down to 25% with two to go if your opponent has a small PP which flopped the set. While those possibilities are out there and seem unlikely, the problem is that the "just caller" pre-flop can easily have AK, K high paint sooted, or that small PP we all like to see flops with and catch that 11% for the big pot, particularly in position.

We are back to the "correct odds" bet of 200. The one designed to confuse the enemy. What you are doing is a "blocking bet", which Miller and Sklansky describe but seem to fail to really enunciate its good use. A VERY TYPICAL blocking bet is the weak min-bet right off the flop. You see this weak play all the time online. I only see oldschoolers do it live. I WILL DO IT sometimes when I have flopped a set in poor position in a limped in pot, when my set is perfectly safe, just to see if it's weakness will attract either a multitude of overcard drawers or a raise, but I hate it. I can't make a real bet and the check call or raise gives my hand away. GAH. It usually just improves a small pot to a slightly less small pot.

200, good blocking bet. WHEN IT IS NOT OBVIOUSLY A BLOCKING BET. This is the irony of the play. You are MAKING A BLOCKING BET TO DISGUISE IT AS A VALUE BET IN ORDER TO PROTECT ITS VALUE AS A BLOCKING BET. By disguising the blocking bet so, you manage the price of the next card while representing that you have something, but not what it is, and, hopefully, not giving away the fact that you are blocking the flush draw. It will take an experienced player to be confused by the blocking bet. Mr. Phil Gordon Reader will just raise with top pair. He is too afraid of the flush draw ghost not to protect his AK. This is why I use the VALUE BET DISGUISED AS A BLOCKING BET to get paid on a flopped set, particularly when I am out of position, and have my ABC opponent on a hand, whether it is an overpair against a small flop or the flop hit a big card like an A and PP hit a very innoculous set. This bet may very well induce the ABC player to play "chase the ace" and see the next card cheap too.

Obviously the response to the blocking bet will provide you with the information you need. Even the VERY GOOD PLAYER should be confused by the blocking bet. In fact, the ABC player with AK will just read it for what it REALLY IS, weakness, and push. I find that the 2/3 small pot blocking bet is more used and more effective live than online, which seems to either do that weakass minbet garbage or not at all.

What you really want is to induce the floater to float along while you either fish to the nuts, find the opening to bust his bluff back, or get paid on hand you know he has beat. The bet you choose is based on your goals, of course, but flush draw control is best done with effective bet management and the best way to control the behavior of your opponent is to confuse him and cast doubt as to where he stands in the hand.

Mixing up the play adds to the confusion. The same post-flop bet you used to get paid in full on a flopped set 12 hands earlier will put anyone in the pot with you on yellow alert, which is of course the goal to manage your draw and maximize the opportunity to win the biggest pot possible with or without hitting that nut draw.

Okay, the theory lesson is over. Thank god! Lets put some of this into practice.

Yay! (or yawn) Real Poker Stories!

The Saturday tournament is a format I have played and talked about before 10,000 starting chips, 30 minute levels starting at 25/50. A format designed to give all players a lot of time to make their stacks for their $300+30 investment. There are 250 players, and, as usual, play is tight.

Early on, I have played a semi-loose preflop game, calling modest raises with drawable hands, but catching no flops, and losing about 1,000 chips. I then get a small but blow limping in A10 for 100, seeing a A -K _J flop, and putting in about 1300 more calling a min check-raise from my initial 400 flop bet, a 500 turn bet, and check checking the river to see that my man out of position had limped in AK. I had been suspicious enough of the check min-raise to realize I may be drawing for the Q. Ouch, but I'm not dead, just down to 7500 chips, and annoyed because the play is cautious, the pots small, and just grinding back to 10,000 will be a chore.

To add to this frustration, the next pot I played, I raised AK UTG, got 4 callers, including the BB, saw a K Q 9 flop two clubs, and pushed all in against the BB's post flop bet of 1500 (very much needing to protect against a draw given that I had 1500 in added value to the 1600 pot, a big stack left to push with, and 2 more players to get past) to get called by the BB, also holding AK, splitting the pot to a meager payoff of 700 chips profit. Ugh.

Around this time, a player about 5 seats to my left who has been confidently throwing larger chunks of his stack around than the table average and inducing folds for moderate pots makes a critical mistake which I will later exploit.

This player looks like Beaver Cleaver just turned 40. He projects a straightforward image. He blows it on this hand. He has position on a UTG raiser and simply calls. The flop is K high, relatively high cards, two diamonds. The UTG makes a feeler bet, and Beaver makes the call. The turn is another diamond, and UTG makes a weak bet, Beaver makes a weak raise, and UTG calls. The final card is another diamond, and UTG is clearly pissed off, and just checks.

Here's the critical mistake. Instead of the value bet that I KNOW UTG can't call on the 4 flushed board, Beaver proudly announces "I have the flush!" and even more proudly shows his winning hand...6 of diamonds, 7 of hearts. No, not A 6 diamonds, 7 high off soot. Beaver had been floating through the whole hand with no pair, and runner runner dirt-weak flush draw.

That's only the first half of the mistake. Raking in a pretty damn big pot, he decides to brag to the whole table about what a brilliant player he thinks he is. He's just so damn full of himself. His bizarre ego requires the whole table to acknowledge his outplay. He not only exposes himself as a floater, but also an idiot who thinks he's a savant.

If I am that overstretched but caught my flush, have position, and see that my opponent screwed up a value bet slow play and is disgusted with the river card counterfeiting his hand, I make the bet he can't call and muck and rake. This is why I only prefer to semi-bluff than bluff, so I can not be ashamed of my showdown with I hit if I have to show it down.

He is not ashamed. He has brazenly brayed to the table. What the hell do you get when you cross a beaver with a donkey? This guy, I guess. Which one was his mother?

Soon after this our Beaver/Donkey will suckout lucky against a much better player for another big pot.

Let me talk about this player. My very first weekly MTT, this player was at my starting, late, and final table. A semi-loose player who plays excellent post-flop poker, and can make a huge call with a weak Ace post-flop. A very good player who needs some excess chips to play his game. He has a Russian hook to his nose and a vague accent so let's call him Czar Nick. Czar Nick took down the first weekly I played, and always had the big stack. Every time I see him at the casino, cash or tourneys, he has a big stack.

This time the whole table seemed to see him coming and he is getting played back at over and over and over and losing chips 1000 at a time. Beaver/Donkey will suck out on him for 1/2 of his last 5000 in this handm raising on the cutoff to open the pot to Czar Nick, who makes the call.

On a Q 2 2 flop, Czar Nick will bet the flop and Beaver/Donkey will float the call. With a 4 on the turn the same will happen, to the tune of 1500 of Czar Nick's chips committed to the river, another 2. Czar Nick checks, Beaver/Donkey value bets 1000, and the frustrated Czar Nick makes the call. Beaver/Donkey oh so proudly displays Q3 clubs for the full house, and a despondent Czar Nick will muck what was most likely 10 10 or a similar PP.

Beaver/Donkey chipped up, glowing with the confidence only stupidity along with a borderline personality disorder can bring. Czar Nick is on tilt, and I get to carve a chunk out of both of them, starting with the Czaz, when the button comes back the Czar two hands later.

The sneaky bastard who slow played AK raises to 500 UTG, and I make the call in the middle with KQ clubs. Not the best hand in a raised pot, but I have position on the raiser and some urgency and a good price to see the right flop. Czar Nick, with position and on tilt, makes the call. I am not concerned with Nick because he is on tilt and desperate to make a pot.

The flop is J 10 4 one club two spades, giving me the straight draw and overcards. The Sneak checks and I check, and Czar Nick throws his last 1850 at the 1725 pot. I like this, because it was enough to induce the Sneak to fold gave me two things: knowledge that Czar Nick caught a pair only and I have a great price to call what I am sure are two overcards and a straight draw, or 14 outs, to win a pot which improves my fortunes at a price I can live with if I don't. If we give the Czar some outs to improve should I catch a pair, it is basically a coin flip with 2 to go.

See my very early blogs on monster draws for great detail on the subject of odds to win these draws. Bottom line is I simply can't lay down such a sweet draw for a closed pot and such terrific pot and implied odds. I can't give up the opportunity to win the pot I know I need, so I call.

Czar had 10 8 off suit, and I couldn't ask for better, AJ still gives me great odds (see the prior blogs) but with any A, K, Q, or 9 all good and ALL LIVE! I river the A for the stylish bust, and secretly feel both good and bad. I enjoy playing hands with the Czar, but I have kicked a dangerous player to the curb while demonstrating superior poker savvy to him and the rest of the table which may tilt the scales next time we are at a table together. Excuse me while I kiss the sky.

I had given the Czar too much respect the first encounter. I was cautious enough against his big stack to push all in with AA on a 7 8 8 flop instead of slow trapping him on one hand early, and let him outplay me on a limped pot when the flop hit 10 7 7 two clubs, I have the J9 clubs for the straight flush draw, and just called each bet flop and turn to his bets just to miss the river and be bet out, I would show my monster draw and he would show me his J9 off suit. We would laugh about it, but I lost 10,000 chips on the approach to the final table, limiting my resources to a short stack at the final to finish 5th and watch him take it down.

Knowledge is power and revenge is sweet. The table may very well be turned between me and the Czar. His skill was being very difficult to put on a hand. Seeing him being outplayed and frustrated is very powerful information.

Okay, enough about Czar Nick. The Beaver/Donkey is next.

Anytime you can find a player to target for chips in a tournament (see the Donkey to my Right blog) is WONDERFUL.

It is not long after adios to the Czar that I wake up early to see QQ and raise to 400: the blinds remain 75/150. I am very pleased to see Beaver make the call, less pleased to see an A 3 2 flop.

I check to the Beaver. The Beaver checks back.

The turn is another 3. I decide to test the waters, and bet 1000, the size of the pot. Beaver/Donkey elects to minraise to 2000. Oh Please Lady of Luck do not let this donkey suck out on me too! I scream silently, but there is no way I am going to let this fool outplay me holding QQ just because of this flop.

The river is garbage, like a 7 or something, and I check. Beaver bets 2500. I don't really know if I am simply pissed off, have a read, maybe from the checked flop, or just refuse to give this guy credit for anything other than 7J. "I just can't put you on an Ace" I say as I make the call, show the QQ, force a disgusted muck, and look like a hero to my fellow mumblers at the other end of the table. Lets just say I had no spidey sense tingling me to trouble, just a gut that said don't lay down to this braying, big eared, bucktoothed, paddle-tailed freak of nature.

"Easiest pot I ever took down," I choose to brag, Beaver/Donkey style, but it wasn't. I can't put him on a hand, but I can't put him on an ace when he is simply playing his float pattern predictably on me too.

This hand helped define my table image, and put Beaver/Donkey on semitilt. With an ordinary stack, his style exposed to the table, and a COMPLETE INCAPACITY TO SHIFT GEARS, his opponents know exactly when to push back and force him to fold. 3 hands, and not very long between them, later, or Beaver/Donkey is done, and I broke the donkey's back.

That 2500 bet wasn't a bad bet mind you. For him, he was forcing me into one of those threshold calls I was talking about at the beginning. For, assuming I was certain I had him, I really couldn't have extracted more. A minraise probably induces the fold, as does an all in, and effectively the 2500 bet makes a good stab and a nice pot without putting the rest of his stack at risk. But I really got much better overall value to my own reputation as well as destruction to his by calling and showing QQ on an A high board and forcing his muck. If I was Beaver, and had a lower PP there, I probably show my hand so I can at least save some face that I thought my opponent had no ace and missed the flop, I suppose, but with no draw on the board for me to credibly represent, and I know he had far less than a PP, he really was hung by his own predictability. There were only two kinds of hands I could have had, both of which are in trouble on that flop out of position, the good PP and the suspect A high. If he said he thought his 99 was good, nobody would believe him and those who did would think he's a rank amateur used to playing $5 games online.

Beaver/Donkey is probably a Greg Raymer fan. Mr. Raymer bluffed his way to a WSOP bracelet, but watch him play on the PPT and see how his bluffing floating style fails against a table of experienced pros and you get my point. I'm a Gus Hanson fan. Truly unpredictable play which disguises and masks and confuses. He's too crazy for me, but I am experimenting with some more aggressive play while still freerolling from last week.

Okay, how to bluff and how to bust the bluff....introductory....its late, and it was a long tournament, so this will continue soon.

When the Lady of Luck comes in riding a donkey, offer her a ride.

The Real Chapter IX: a final table from opening hand to final hand

2007-09-13T22:47:00.000-07:00

I have spoken on early final table play, I have alluded to middle play, and a full analysis of final table play really will require more than this blog, as lengthy as it might become, but I can at least introduce some "conventional" approaches to final table play and, of course, some of the concepts of how PokerMonster explodes the conventional approaches, in this case, to heads up victory.

(Finally! I was one hungry monster, being the bride's maid two weeks straight in August. C is for Cookie, that's good enough for me, but 1st buys a LOT MORE COOKIES!!!!!!!!!!).

The bubble ended just at the end of the level, so we get a little break and a fresh 1000/2000/300 level to start. I get 4th position and have 22000 chips for an average stack. Our current chip leaders include Phil Ivory, whose knockout with AA to burst the bubble chipped him up around 40,000, and another player named Terry who had similarly sucked a player in holding AA at the same table.

Let's talk about Terry a bit. Terry is a solid player, hard to put him on a hand, very aggressive. We have been at tables before. He can bet large and you simply won't know who's in charge.

ABBA has made it with a modest 17,000 stack. There are a few others with average chips, and your standard 3 short stacks.

Here is one key difference between the casino game and the online $100+9. With an average stack of 20000 to 25000, depending on the number of starting players, and typical starting level of 1000/2000, the leisurely blinds and relative resulting conservative play of my online fave usually means that the bubble fell on merit, two big hands racing, rather than mere desperation. There is, as a result, a typical starting level more like 500/1000, and with the resulting relative leisurely pace of the level raises, there is more time to find a hand online. Even a bigger online tourney with a lower buy in and the typical 1500 starting chips/12 minute levels
will usually see a final table more in range of an average stack at 20x rather than the 10x the BB we see at the casino. As a result, the casino final is an action table, and will complete within 50-60 hands unlike the 100-180 hands I've experienced online.

We have also seen PokerMonster catch large early at the casino final table as a matter of course, and this will be no exception. I have the honour of busting out three of the first four. #1 went out in the second hand after folding from the BB in hope two other all-ins would land him in 9th, but the shorter stack doubled, and the SB killed #1 next hand.

My starting position is poor, and I have the BB on hand 3, but I have been getting nice hands in the blinds, and this is no exception. Short stack #2, a nice lady named Karen who I nicknamed "chip and a chair" just before her last desperate double up with nothing more than the BB in the BB, has put her 4200 chips in early, and Phil Ivory, who is now across from the table from me, simply calls. Play folds to me and I look down at JJ.

There are two schools of thought here. Slow play and check down to ensure #9 hits the rail, but I have a nice hand here, I think Phil's mere call is a weak call with a modest hand like a small PP, and I would like to win this pot, TYVM. I push all-in once again on Phil's (coincidental) 4200 investment (you will recall its his favorite stealing price). He folds pretty quickly, and seems at this time a little put off by my pushing him around, but it is clear I had the better hand to show down with here, and JJ survives Lady Chip N' Chair's AQ though the river for a nice starting pot of 12000 plus recovery of my BB.

Play will come around eventually until again I am one ahead of UTG when short stack #3, a chubby, ugly, bearded, overly talkative guy who had been at the table with ABBA and I, and was consistently raising to open with any A in any position, and then showing his one ace, puts his 15000 in UTG. I wake up to AJ spades and announce "I'm over the top", and push my chips in.

I can make this move quickly and with certainty in such early position because:

I have played with all these players at both tables leading to the final and they know I will push with a legitimate hand, and with hand I know is ahead. It will take a very strong call to call me;
UTG almost certainly has a weak ace, and I have a strong ace. A better ace at this table is unlikely, AA much more unlikely, and since I have shown off QQ so many times, JJ might even fold;
The rest of the table is happy to see either UTG bust out resulting in a move up in the money, or a very good and aggressive player (that's me) get a big chunk knocked out of him while chipping up a clearly weaker player.
As a result of my knowledge, I can make this move with the confidence necessary to scare off even JJ. QQ might very well come a-calling, but hey, I'm sooted.

Sure enough, no callers, and A6 diamonds can't catch the suckout. The monster is now in the lead with 52,000.00.

Shortly after this, in fact when I am next on the button, our young Phil Ivory, UTG, raises to 6000. And he has a familiar look on his face. I know that look. He has K's in his eyes. The field folds to me, and I wake up, with, blessed saints! Rockets in the Pockets!

I am certain Phil has KK, because there was a look of disappointment with each fold, and anticipation when I reach for chips. I decide to follow my own advice. I simply call to avoid any indication of strength, as if I either need to see a flop or intend to use position to outplay the young Sith apprentice.

I know Phil is tired of laying down to my big bets, tired of being outplayed by me, and I know he will bet on any flop without an A and since I have AA, those leftover Aces and Kare 5% each of the remaining deck and only 11% likely to produce an A high flop or a K high flop each. I will lay down to a K high flop because I KNOW he has KK: not QQ, not AK, not JJ. KK. You know I know.

I am a full 80% to take advantage for all his chips, and only I know it. Phil has played very well, he is a very talented young player, but fatigue from a lack of experience and poker stamina have weakened his poker face. I am in the zone, I am lively, and I know he wants a piece of my fat stack. He will be happy to take down the small pot, but I know this will be a big pot.

The flop is perfect, 8 high, no draws, and with 16,000 in the pot, Phil bets 12,000. I do not hesitate to raise him all in, because I know he'll call, and show me KK. And he does, and PokerMonster rakes in another 30,000 for a fat chip lead of 85,000 or so.

I know Phil Ivory has learned much from the PokerMonster, and I expect him to take a stab at ol' Grundel again loaded with fresh weapons. He has much to learn of the dark side of the force, he does.

ABBA will fall out of the picture next, leaving us with 5 stacks, me in the lead, but all healthy. With plenty of chips, I will weather weaker cards, and a few caught steals while action occurs elsewhere. This is an opportunity to observe my opponents. On one steal attempt, the player to my immediate left in the SB responds to my move with A7, with a rapid all-in, and I will have to fold, knowing has a good PP, and he will show 10 10. I will attempt one more knockout with 66 and double up the same shortie catching and A. I will raise 9000 more to Terry in the BB with A3 to have Terry make the call and make a great move on me all in post flop on a 3 -4 7 board (if he didn't I would have). I show him the 3 only as I muck the A.

The player to my right is interesting. He catches a critical double up trapping the left player (Terry's between the two BTW, just so you get where the table seating is at), and I am seeing how these players play as a result. My man to the right will expose some serious mistakes and tells on this hand, as well as some simplicity to his play. He's no dummy and no rookie, but there is an ABC element to his short final table play. Let's call him, uh, jeez, he needs name, he's a bit dour....how about Grumpy Smurf.

Grumpy Smurf has a bad habit and a tell. His bad habit is to look at his cards before his turn to act. When the man to the left made a big raise, Terry spent some time in the tank, and Grumpy Smurph sat in a statue-like state, unable to move, with his cards partially raised off the felt in his hand near the yellow line like he's ready to muck, or ready to turn them over and show them down. And he has this intense stare as he plays statue, and there is like, electricity coming off the guy.

Left man will eventually call Grumpy's all in, and show down A8 to Grumpy's 10 10. Grumpy was clearly itching to pounce, but he caught his man. And he proudly announces to the table that he was deliberately acting like he was ready to muck to get action. I tell him I could feel the buzz coming off of him. He didn't fool me none.

So, soon after this, with Grumpy now the chip leader, Left man and Terry, foolishly, in my view, go heads up and all-in holding A7 to the left and A6 to the right, Terry sucks out his 6 and we are three-handed, I am down to 45,000 chips and I am in third. My only hand since busting Phil was a similar slowplay with AA in the BB, with 2000/4000 blinds, Terry had raised to 10,000 and, feeling a need to play my AA different this time, simply minraise to 16000. A pretty obvious play really, but it helped define Terry's hand as a hand worth playing when he called, and he did not fall into any traps to my flop check on a 10 high flop, or my 15000 bet into the 35000 pot when the turn paired the 7 on the flop. Had he caught his K or Q or whatever overcard, who knows, but I stalled after that and watched Terry and Grumpy gamble and chip up.

A few hands later, when I folded K6 from the button, and the two checked down with nothing against a flop of K68, I lamented my hand and told them of my K6. They were surprised I didn't play it. I know many consider K high to be a strong hand very short handed, and to an extent, it is, and it was nice to know these two opponents shared the same opinion. I will turn this knowledge into power.

I know my two opponents think ANY ACE OR ANY KING is AN ALL IN HAND. Good to know.

HERE'S THE SHORT VERSION OF THE POKER MONSTER THEORY OF "ANY ACE" in a three or 4 handed game.

Any ace is worthy of a raise intended to take down the pot without committing to the pot.
It is a raising hand, and only a calling hand if you are short, and expect your big stack opponent so be merely bullying, or your opponent is short and desperate.
It is a maybe calling hand if you are dealing with an "erratic" short handed player who can just as likely be raising with QQ as 6 high: take your time make the read before the call.
In a calling situation, you are so likely to be in a kicker battle which you can't control with "any ace" that you simply are gambling with two 6 sided dice who has the best of it, a pretty stupid reason to call.
Small aces will split 21% of the time or so due to the prospect of 4 bigger cards or board pairs making the kickers not play,but this is no guarantee you didn't walk into a dominated position for too many chips.
Being only 55 to 60% for A high to be best through 5 cards against two live is a really weak gamble that equal stacks should not make unless both are desperate.
A6 simply cannot be played well post flop. With 15% to flop an ace, and overcards likely even if you do hit a 6, it really is all-in showdown value or forget it.
Of course, playing ANY KING puts you substantially behind in a showdown with ANY ACE.

I prefer sooted connectors and similar for raises here in lieu of an actual hand. Two middle sooted cards are better than folding. I will make two critical steals from my short stacked position. With Grumpy folding on the button, I wake up to see a favorite hand, J9 spades. While J9 spades is a modest holding I like to limp in for cheap at a bigger table, I need some steals, I like this hand, and Terry respects my game and my raises. I go all in and he folds quick.

On the button next hand, I now see K4 hearts. Because I know my opponents respect K high, and again, I need a survival steal, and its suited and possible two live against these predictable jokers' A-high moves, I go all in again. Terry is in the tank over a VERY small Ace, and Grumpy had a sour look from the start. After Terry's tank and fold, Grumpy surrenders the BB. Terry surrenders information on what and why he folded, but I muck.

ON THE VERY NEXT HAND TERRY AND GRUMPY GO ALL IN. GORGEOUS MOVE!

This is why to show a little thought holding Any Ace. Terry has A7. Grumpy A8. The flop of
7 8 8 settles it quickly, and Terry is out. Both of them had plenty of chips, and threw them in thoughtlessly playing the A, not the kicker.

I may be short stacked, with 3000/6000/800 levels about to rise to 5000/10000/1000, but I have serious reads on Grumpy. Terry would have been the tougher opponent heads-up. I have about 45000 chips, Grumpy over 125,000 for a 3-1 lead.

I couldn't be happier. Heads up again with a predictable opponent. Remember last time, when I was exhausted, short stacked, and up against the very experienced, quiet, sneaky Kirby. No cards, no steals no reads, no luck, no dice. Not this time.

We get a new dealer for heads-up. He has never dealt tourneys before, and doesn't know that the Button, as SB, act first heads-up preflop, but last post flop.

This is a very important element of heads up play. The button gets first stab to steal the blinds, and get position for the rest of the hand. Online, two heads up players usually share 250,000 to 750,000 chips against blinds of 2000/4000 or so, very deep heads up play that can often grind for 30-100 hands. here, 5000/10000/1000 levels means 37%% of my current starting stack and 14% of his starts in the pot before we even see our cards. That online patience is not available here, but inspite of Grumpy's idea that this will simply be a preflop showdown affair, I let him know I intend to frustrate him if he thinks beating me will be as easy as who sucked out after 5 hands came down. I intend to play poker, not gamble, and I know I can outplay Grumpy.

In the deeper stacked heads up game, I will raise with button and Any Ace, or in the BB to a limp-in, but NEVER INTO a POT COMMITTED SITUATION. Make a bet that defines your opponent's hand without committing you, so you have room to fold if you don't like the reraise. Ideally you play this from the button, so you have that post flop position, but a bluff from the BB post flop may of course force you to make a huge call with a good A high or an easy laydown against any doubt. The reraise preflop really is the BB's primary position-altering weapon. In the casino, there is simply not enough room in our stacks beyond the blinds to make a bad decision after raising with an ace. I might even check in the BB with a weak ace, knowing I might be able to check raise an A high-flop.

Less theory, more action.

Very first hand, I have the button, and simply complete the bet with 45 off suit, and Grumpy checks. I further note that Grumpy's face really is an open window to his cards. He is no sneak. His check means check.

With a flop of 10 9 5 , I have position and strongly suspect my 5 may be good, but I am short and have to play cautious. The new dealer thinks I am first to act, and we both have to teach him he is wrong. This affords me some chance so assess some additional weakness in Grumpy through his comments to the dealer and the tournament manager. When he checks I check back, intending to see what the turn holds.

It holds nicely. Another 5 makes me a set, and his check to me, and a straight and flush draw on board, prompt me to declare "short stack's all in", and he goes in the tank. He tells me he thinks his K high is good, and I try to sell him on a bluff, but I should have shut it, I suppose, although really, who knows what river suckout potential he has. There is 22,000 in that pot and I need it. He will fold. I will show the 5.

On the next hand, he will limp in, I will wake up to AJ, and raise to 25,000. This time he think's I'm stealing, and he reraises me all in. I can very quickly call here, and we will showdown with me ahead against K9, which I will admit is a very playable hand heads up, and a 9 AND J on our flop help seal up my double up. Grumpy played his cards only and make a huge mistake not respecting my raise, a fact I will soon exploit further.

My double up puts me in a 20,000 chip lead, and with momentum.

The next hand we play he completes the bet and I check the BB with 95 off. The flop is 10 8 7, leaving me a nice straight draw.

I am well aware that the best value here is not on the steal attempt. A free card to the straight will earn me a monster to guarantee a pot which I can afford to lose now. I check, and get the check back.

I get my (HALLELUJAH!!!) J on the turn, and make a meager value bet of 10,000, the minimum. He will call. Why I don't know, but with 4 middle cards out there he has a prospect of a pair.

With a river A, I push him all in and he can't call. I reward him with a peek at the 9 he can't beat.

Now my small lead improved by taking 20000 more from his last 70,000 or so. With 120000 to 50,000, the zone, the cards, and the momentum, it won't take much.

He will steal the next pot, but I will raise to 30,000 the following hand holding K7 diamonds, a raise and an attitude identical to my raise with AJ. Grumpy is now Fraidy Smurf. And he is in trouble.

He has 40000 chips left, and the button. With 6000 invested now, if he folds he surrenders 11000 to the BB next hand I will be first to act. Grumpy has to win the next pot, and he knows it. His all in is weak, predictable, and clearly without any "buzz" like his 10 10 Statue of Liberty play. I am like EA Madden 2007 to his NES Tecmobowl, and he is too short for anything but the Hail Mary this hand.

I have, quite literally Any Ace, A of spades, 3 of clubs, and I call quickly.
Grumpy has 6 8 off suit, both red.

The flop is A 7 9 THREE CLUBS. I have top pair, he has a straight draw, but I own the clubs, offering him 6 measly outs. Curiously, my odds computer offers him a 2.8% SPLIT, obviously runner runner clubs bigger than the 2, but he is only 20.3% to catch.

The turn is no help. The river is the K of clubs.

The Lady of Luck said it was time for the Monster to shine.

I have taken the gold many times on-line. My short handed and heads up game are honed by countless 10 man sngs, online final tables, and 6 to 9-handed live tournaments with my poker buddies. This is my first live bracelet, and a fine tune up for Saturday's $300+30, now a freeroll with cash to spare.

Do I really want to expose my secrets to final table success? Later blogs will tell a tale, I'm sure.

Later, y'all.

Chapter....Nine? Final Table Victory!

2007-09-13T18:54:00.000-07:00

Okay, its been a nice week for me, $1350 prize for 3rd in an online $100+9 on Tuesday, and the full monty last night at the casino, 1st place and $2880 in the weekly $90+10. Definitely my best week's haul, and already better than my $3400 month of August.

The online $100+9 is my tournament of choice for the internet game, and this and the live casino weekly have some key similarities and key differences. Both start with 2500 chips, but the online game, as a big price buy in, has a much more leisurely level structure relatively speaking, while the casino game is a bit more action oriented. Starting with blinds as low as 5/10 with 15 minute levels, means you will play perhaps 60 hands in the first hour before your minimum bet reaches 60. after 1:15 the blind level is 50/100. At the casino, with 20 minute levels starting at 25/25, that same 1:15 or so (1:20 actually) we have begun 100/200 blinds. At a very fast table with a very good dealer, you will get 12-15 hands in live during each 20 minute level, with the ratio of hands to level tending to drop fairly steadily due to two factors: longer "in the tank" periods for big decisions in big pots, and the need for the dealer to physically sort out big pots which may have all-in parties and side-pots to sort out.

Both games have the same number of typical players, 90-120 (and both my wins came from shorter handed tourneys, 89 online and 80 live) and I find this number very manageable. Obviously the online game permits me to have much more patience, and I play a tighter game as a result, most early pots being small. I can easily see a fair number of flops early online , miss them all, and still have 2350 after 30 minutes, last night for example, 500 of my chips were gone in the same time frame looking for flops with playable hands and not catching.

In other words, the live game starts to enter into a mini crisis mode quite early. For me yesterday, that meant, while holding AQ of clubs in position, a hand I might just see a flop with on-line, meant reraising a weak opening raise, and ultimately, playing the hand all-in preflop.

Amazingly, I had walked into AA, leading to a a flop of 109 crap, a turn of J, and, suckout of suckouts, a big fat K in the river to hand me Broadway to bust a pair. Having been french-kissed so by the Lady of Luck, it was time to play up to her expectations.

I now had the chips again to see flops, and this time, I was catching better. I limped in with K10 to see a 10 9 4 flop, two spades, and raised an initial bet of 125 to 400. I had position, and felt I had the best of the flop. The next card being a 5, I bet another 500 after my opponent checked.

Lets talk about my bet size choice here for a moment. Pot wise, it offered good odds for my opponent with 1000 in the pot, but I don't think my man is on a draw at all. I think he has 10J. He is out of position and doesn't know where he stands in the hand. He really doesn't know what I have, because although I have folded a lot of hands post-flop, I also demonstrated some impatience overplaying my AQ. I am acting uncertain with the smaller bet, but really I am value betting. He decides to keep floating.

My other goal is to put his chip stack at risk. He commits 1000 to his 3500 stack at this point, creating a pot of 2000 while destroying the improvement he had made to his starting stack. I am putting his stack leverage and ability see future flops at risk, and this will work out in my favour on the river.

My opponent calls my 500, and we see another 10 on the river. This time, he makes the "weak"
bet into me, 700.

Let's look at this bet. 2000 in the pot, 1800 left to his stack. The bet is right on the crisis point for him and for me. He still doesn't know where he stands, and he is hoping I have been caught bluffing, as that 700 pretty much wipes out my lucky double up just a few hands ago.

I went all-in over him, pretty much sure that I had gotten the most I was going to get. I'm not sure if he folds a 10 here, maybe he had A9, he mumbled something about a kicker. Maybe he made a heck of a laydown with weaker trips, but I also think a casual minraise to 1400 in the river has the same effect as an all-in trap sprung.

After the break, following less successful flop prospecting, I settle in to a reasonable position of 5000 chips, could be better, could be worse.

The aggressiveness required after the break is real contrast to the tight game I have earlier described in early middle play which is the hallmark of the $100+9 online game. It becomes very exploitable.

A couple of examples, one involving my next double up:

to my left is a big bearded guy who has impressed me as a relatively competent player. With blinds of 100/200, he has opened the pot with a bet of 500, he gets 3 callers, including, in the BB, a kid with an Ipod and a baseball hat. He has the same shifty eyes and general deadpan demeanour as Phil Ivey, but he's Caucasian, so let's call him Phil Ivory. He filled a dead seat about 50 minutes in carrying a decently improved stack, and so far he has not played a lot of pots. Right now Phil Ivory is an enigma.
The flop is a hilarious 2 -7 -2 and right away I am thinking BB special. Phil checks, and Big Beard makes a good bet into this pot of 2100: 1600. The players fold to Phil Ivory, who makes the call. Big Beard has 2000 left
The turn is another small card, lower than a seven. Phil Ivory checks and so does Big Beard. My impression now is that this is a pocket pair battle, and the players do not know who has the better pair. I will turn out to be pretty much bang on, or half right anyway.
With another small card on the river, Phil Ivory makes a great bet: 1400. Its small relative to the pot, but Big Beard has invested half his stack into this pot, and will be down to 10x the BB if he lays his hand down. Big Beard tanks for a few, then puts the rest of his chips in, knowing Phil will be calling. Mr. Ivory had flopped a full house, and shows his 77 to Big Beard's measly 99.

99 is a pretty weak PP to commit your tourney life to, but Phil had done a great job trapping with his full house, all the while staring his opponent down shifty-eyed, always deadpan, never offering a tell. Phil will prove to have his weaknesses later, but he sure chipped up nicely with this master stroke.

My turn.

Soon after Big Beard's bust out, a late player, who's chips have been blinded away, finally comes to the table. This is a bearded Japanese player, and immediately he's in a hurry to catch up. His first move is a big raise, no action, his next a big all in move to isolate a short stack with JJ, and he doubles up in two hands.
I complement him on his move there, but soon find that this fellow really is playing Kamakaze. He CALLS another shortish stack with A7 spades, and is of course dominated, and hands over 2000 chips Ehem--nobody but nobody CALLS ALL IN WITH A7 AT A 10 HANDED TABLE! Even if you have the raiser beat, someone has you beat. And while Zero here winds up chipping up pretty good within a few hands, and in fact has me well outstacked 10 minutes after he sat down, I wake up in the cutoff with QQ.
The blinds are still 100/200, two people have limped in, and I decide I want action, so I raise to 600. Zero protects his BB with a call and the two limpers call too. Not exactly what I wanted, but the flop is nice, and all three players check to me.
Hey, I have position, a flop of 2 8 7 two hearts, and noone liked the flop. There is a nice pot out there and the possibility of a draw, and I need to at least thin out my field. 2500 in the pot, I make a bet of 1500. Again, my bet is good enough sized to damage an opponent, sweetened the pot to 4000, and still, in theory, let me get away from my hand.
Exactly the message I wanted. I looked like a weak thief preflop and I am simply continuing the charade postflop. Zero raises me all in.
There is no hesitation to my call. I know I have him beat, and, in fact, we showdown 2 10 to QQ. I turn another Q to prohibit a suckout, and double up.

Zero thought I had missed the flop. Why? I don't know. As an aside, I had made an identical online call late in Tuesday's game on the final table approach when a short stack limped in, everyone folded to me in the BB with K2, and we hit an identical flop. The blinds were 500/1000 with 100 ante, and he had 2500 left. When I checked the flop, he bet 2000, and I put him all in, expecting he had missed completely. I was right, he had A9. Very different scenario, very different read, very big difference between PokerMonster and Zero in terms of understanding the game of poker. I can make an on-line read knowing my 22 is good. He can't make the read in a live game with live body information to use. Mind you, PokerMonster has become an experienced live player, and his poker face, really faces, is pretty solid now. I will show many faces this tournament.

Let me briefly compare this to the online tourney of Tuesday. The first hour was a bit of struggle, but managed to close to double up from a couple of decent pots late in the first hour. I then just cycled between 4000 and 6000 chips until I was able, 45 minutes or so later, to pull a similar stunt at 100/200 blinds when I raised an unopened pot from the cut off with QQ, to 600 only to get played back from by the BB, whom I had outchipped, but not by a lot. He reraises to 2400, and I decide to simply call. The flop is a wonderful K Q 8, and the BB hesitates a bit before putting 2000 of his last 2400 into the pot. He shows-down A4 to my set of ladies, and I joke with the rest of the table about Phil Gordon teaching him to raise a "blind steal from the cut off" with "any ace". Got a Phil Gordon book? Don't throw it away. Read it to see how the other half lives so you better know how to beat predictable ABC poker Monsterstyle.

Right after my QQQ double up yesterday, the table breaks up, and Phil Ivory and I both wind up sitting beside each other, Phil to my left. There is one other big stack at the table, a talkative Asian Banana type (not a perjorative expression where I come from, simply referring to an Asian person who walks, talks, dresses, and acts like every other Canadian: yellow on the outside, white inside like a Banana). ABBA is a very friendly guy, maybe he talks too much, usually has something to say before he raises.

ABBA will soon come to hate that he has PokerMonster and Phil Ivory with huge stacks in the BBs when he is on the button.

On ABBA's first attempt to steal, he makes a joke about the likelihood either Phil or I will play back. I happen to have A9 sooted, and give it some thought, but decide to fold to ABBA's raise, and he doesn't like to raise too much, 800 against 150/300 blinds. Phil takes advantage and reraises, and ABBA has to fold.

The next time things come around, I am again in the SB, there has been an UTG raiser to 900, and ABBA simply makes the call. The UTG now makes a comment about Phil or I making a squeeze play from the blinds, ABBA laughs back, and I wake up to two lovely ladies (always a good thing, even in Poker). I oblige the UTG raiser, and reraise, to 3000. UTG now folds, and ABBA gives it some thought, not much, and simply makes the call.

Interestingly enough, when I raised preflop, Phil asked me to give a chipcount as if he was considering his own move. I don't really want a monster pot here.

I like this move by Phil. Perhaps he had no intention of entering the pot. I've made a big move from a weak position, and the chip count is an opportunity to study my hand movements and voice, probably as information for later. We now know I have 9600 chips, I appear confident about my hand, Phil folds, UTG folds, and ABBA's call in the wake of this drama helped pin me on his hand.

I now know ABBA has a hand. It is a very good hand, but a hand to see the flop with. My gut says AK, and my read will have a big impact on the play. I'm going to use ABBA's talkative, gregarious nature against him (just a bit).

The flop is a glorious 10 high no draw. I am certain I am good, and I put the rest of my chips in.

ABBA tanks, and wonders aloud whether he has the best of it. I tell him he will have to pay to see if his AK is good. His response confirms I have him on a hand, and I ask him, "I've put you on a hand, have you put me on a hand?" He sighs, and says probably an overpair, and eventually mucks. I reward his insight with a peep show of my ladies (25 cents a gander, gentlemen!).

WHY OH WHY DID THE MASTER OF SNEAK PUT ON SUCH A DISPLAY?

I'm new to the table, expect to be here a while, and I will need to steal later, and the drama might help me out;
I DID NOT WANT A 4-WAY POT PREFLOP HOLDING QQ;
with the aid of Phil's chip count on me, I have put ABBA in his hand, and I have a 7500 chip pot here. I risk a marginal 25% but still realistic suckout with two cards to go knowing he has two live overcards to come. Greed kills every time. I think if I play it any other way, I induce the call, but this is a happy pot and I want it.

In other words, QQ is vulnerable, unlike my KK lesson from Tuesday inviting you to trap to find a three way big pot to triple up.

ABBA got caught in the middle AGAIN holding AK on a Q high flop with Phil THE NEXT TIME WE WERE IN THE BLINDS, having committed all but 6000 chips to find Phil check-raising all-in to a 3000 (weak, and obviously weak) ABBA bet in a strongly raised pot.

I will push ABBA around AGAIN with QQ in the blinds THE NEXT TIME AROUND, but all players folded that time.

ABBA will get the better of some weaker players, who have sensed his ability to make big folds. He got 3 way action holding AA, against two short stacks with 109 and 77, and pulled a few chips back.

I, on the other hand, get to exploit my own aggressiveness from the blinds soon after.

UTG, I had made a moderate raise of 1100 against 200/400 blinds holding AA. I got no action, and showed AA.

The next hand, a pretty aggressive player in middle position who has been stealing a lot makes a raise to 1600. Play folds to me and I joke about my monsters in the blinds and how I'll see AA two hands in a row.

Then I peek at my cards. Big Slick. I don't hesitate to push all 16,000 chips into the middle. It was an instant all-in similar to the play Al busted his two ladies chasing KK on Monday. Obviously AK is not KK. But I'm in a zone, and I must have picked something up from the raiser.

He obviously didn't pick up anything from me. There was nothing to read, of course, until I looked at my cards and said I was all-in. Amazingly, he thought AJ was good, and made the call pretty quickly, as Al did Monday, but jeez guy, instacalling with QQ is one thing, but AJ? For all your chips when you can just as easily fold? No suckout for you.

I am suddenly chip leader with over 30,000 chips with 18 people left.

Now life is not all wine, roses and paired painted ladies for the PokerMonster. When I have hands to push and raise with, I get pushy, and in spite of all these big hands I have either shown or shown down at this table, my raises get action. When I open the pot in the cut off or button, there are nothing but hungry short stacks in the blinds, and of course I am only pushing when I have a hand, but do I get credit for a hand? Forget it.

The first time I push 66 into a very short stack VERY happy to wake up to AQ. He catches and I don't mind. But the next time I push with A 10 (a very strong hand vs two random desperate blinds), I have to pay 6000 off two shortie #2 who decided to call with K3 sooted (and caught a 3)

Phil Ivory had escaped to the other table. After a point I am annoyed, and back down to 15000 chips, and ecstatic when they move me to Phil's table.

I have position now on Phil, and decide to take some advantage of Phil's respect for my game. We are 14 handed now, and with blinds 500/1000/150 and 500/1500/200, my 15000 will whittle down if I play too tight, and is too little now to gamble a double up.

Thankfully, the whole dynamic is different at this table. More stealing and less big pots.

Soon into my time there, I notice Phil is doing his share of raising. with 500/1500 blinds, his steal attempts are bets of 4200 consistently.

Let me talk about this particular stealing bet price. 2.5x the blinds in consistent betting is a technique I have seen often. The bet is small enough to get away from a raise. It is big enough to force your opponents to define their hand and play a pretty big pot when the average stack looks like mine. Betting the same, we don't know whether he is raising to steal or raising a big hand for value.

But having spent some time with Phil, I have poked a few holes in his armour. First, I am all too aware of this technique for stealing/disguising big hands. Second, he knows I will reraise any amount including all-in with big hands (and guess what? I'm going to change gears on Phil later too). He saw my moves with both QQ and my huge all in with AK. Third, I seem to be able to detect a little concern in his eyes when he has something to be concerned about.

With a meager A8 spades, I move against Phil's standard steal raise all in. He tanks. He likes to tank and play stare down. He, like Phil Ivy, shuns sunglasses, but I can stare back with impunity. I do not play statue. I shift my posture. At one point I start acting bored. I grab some fries from my plate of dinner and munch absentmindedly.

I say one thing, eventually, after probably 2 full minutes of tanking, "You've seen how I play". That is enough to force him to muck.

This play sets a nice tone for me at the new table. The next hand I will see and play is 10 10, and I am UTG, so I just go all in with it. I get folds and I show it, and tell the table I didn't want the suckout action. I will also steal against a limper UTG and show A10 hearts to the folders when we are 6 handed.

During bubble time, with so many similar sized stacks, caution while stealing is the name of the game. I had too many chips to get a call, and I knew the UTG player was a cautious player from pots before and play at the other table. He had even limped in QK from the SB to play against my K8 BB, and I learned much after I had bet the turn A after a A 4 5 flop had been check check. He told me he had QK after I told him I though K high was good there.

This is another key similarity with the online game. 2 tabled, stacks do not have a huge variation in size. The biggest might be 30,000, with plenty in the 15,000 to 20,000 range, and shorter stacks with 7000-10000 busting up the online game to the final is tougher, as the blinds are smaller, levels longer, and the blind grind not as onerous.

Somehow, his caution fell by the wayside the very next hand when UTG and Phil had an all-in showdown. Phil's AA almost got sucked out on, when UTG's 77 hit what I will be told was the case 7 on the flop, only to be busted by the case A on the turn.

This blog is long. I'm going to edit and continue with the final table in the next blog, but without delay. Just gonna head to the casino and buy into saturday's game.

Prelude to the big money

2007-09-12T23:01:00.000-07:00

Your friendly neighbourhood PokerMonster just got home after finishing 1st in the Casino weekly $90+10 for $2880.00.

I is tired. I needs to relax. All shall be revealed tomorrow, when I has the the energy to be chatty.

Time for a cold one PFFFT!

Lady of Luck, I could kiss ya all ova da place!

The Rise and Fall of Al part 3.1: oufoxing the Grey Fox

2007-09-11T18:15:00.000-07:00

In recent blogs (okay, sporadic blogs of relatively recent vintage), and especially the last blog, I have discussed playing so obviously with KK that a sophisticated player like Al or the Monster will put you on your hand and deprive you of action. I am certain that it is only fatigue that prevented Al from getting away from his two lovely ladies last night.

The two obvious plays were the obvious look on one's face, pause in face of a raise, and calculated nominal re-raise, and the "I don't care what the raiser has" instant all-in.

I have, many times, taken KK in mid position, in the face of an early raise, and trapped with it to obtain a a huge three-way pot which triples me up late in a tourney and turns me into a Top 5 chip leader and table captain.

Lets put ourselves in the shoes of the man with KK waking up to the giddeup-go in the face of Al's raise. Al may not have been at the table long, but any greybeard (I'm being unfair, Al is only 10 years older than me) is usually a sneaky bastard and knows that an UTG raise is risky without a strong hand, and you should respect the game of any of the older players, particularly ones in the final 30, and especially if they have acquired a healthy stack.

I can therefore to put Al on a range of hands from AK to AJ, and any PP AA on down to, ar worst, 99 or 88, maybe 77. His raise invites a response, being small, so it could be a monster AA or it could be a hand he may very well get away from, like JJ or 10 10.

I don't have much information here, and I want to act quickly in response to this raise. Obviously peeking down at KK tells me Al doesn't have KK, and I am 70% fave or better to win preflop against all but AA. I am generally of the view that AA is fair game to kick my ass if i am holding KK at this crucial time of the tournament.

In other words, I do not have a ton of thinking to do. I am safe with KK as a huge favorite. I want to make the call quite quickly but not too quickly, and silently. The time it takes to pick up the correct denomination of chips is plenty of delay, and make the call. I do not announce the call, I just slide the chips forward.

If I am lucky, my lack of attention--getting on the call will not be noticed by players coming in later. I want them all to look up when it is their turn and see a small raise and call, and have no other information. I am not representing anything other than a hand which I would like to see a flop with. Hopefully they were chatting with a neighbour or ogling the waitress when I called.

If I am very lucky, a desperate short stack or aggressive big stack sees 5600 of dead money in the pot, a weak raise and call for two players who are not pot committed, and ideally, the BB and SB are not short and desperate, making theft a solid option. Time and time again, I have seen late raises here, more so than if there were two limpers. A weak PP or A high may very well try to steal this tempting money. I often see the moderate raise and call both fold to the significant reraise.

Lets say a guy with 35000 chips is holding AQ on the button, and the play folds to him. He will be very tempted to play back strong here. Lets say he does, and puts Al and you both all in.

What does Al do here? He has QQ, and the big stack decides to get pushy? He can easily put the big stack on a weaker hand than QQ, and he simply can't put you on a hand if you have managed the sly call effectively. Al thinks he is the trapper here, and simply must call, if I have done my job and snuck in my KK covertly. If I can hold my water and relax during this, so much the better. Maybe there is a game on the TV overhead, or a hot waitress or patron just walked by to assist in my distraction. Al cannot have the information required to read my hand. He's all in and so am I, QQ is dead to one out, AQ has 3.

My odds calculator puts KK ahead 71.2% vs AQ, 81.7% vs QQ head up, and a full 65.2%, close to 2/3, three handed to triple up. That is an overwhelmingly fantastic position to be in for a tournament-defining triple up. If my two opponents are AQ and AJ, I am 73%. My weakest odds are against a lower PP like JJ vs AQ, only 57%, but still the correct play. I can afford a little distraction until the flop strikes felt.

What is important here, faced with a big raise from a big stack, and a call from Al, is I now can confirm he has a very strong hand, which is not KK, and may very well not be AA, and I really can expect the big stack to be pushing with the worst of it. There is no way that big stack (or desperate short stack) pushes us both all in with AA.

Here's why.

Al and I are equal in chips, and have committed 18% to 20% of out stack to these hands. We are not pot committed, and if this action folds to me with AA, any raise I make pretty much commits my opponents to the pot to call, and a mere minraise is way too damn obvious too. I am in a conundrum, and unless I make a very quick and correct decision, I give away my strength and lose my fishies. I think the best move for me with AA is another simple, quick call, knowing that I have created a 7400 pot for two stacks with about 8000 left which will tempt both sorely while I have position. I am 67% likely to be the winner after 5 cards, 80% to be ahead on the flop against two lower pair, and can afford the bad beat if they catch a set. If one player is holding an Ace, I am 75% likely after 5, which is like 85% post flop, and if I am checked to, I definitely bet big post flop. Monkeying around with AA three handed is a recipe for disaster, and If I read my opponents right, one will bet on the flop, I will reraise all-in, and the third player will fold.

In other words, the guy in middle position with KK is in a FAR BETTER POSITION TO GET PAID IN A HUGE THREE WAY POT than then guy with AA in late position, played carefully. By carefully, I mean with finesse, not caution.

The key here is of course the likely prospect, in the event of a raise, I will be the one to close the pot preflop.

Now, If I have played my KK against Al this way, and I get no callers, of course, I have position on Al. Al, holding QQ, will bet on any flop without an A or K, trying to take the pot down without offer up a free card to get beat with. If Al didn't have QQ, or an A comes on, and he checks either way, I probably check back to persuade him I also found the flop distasteful. He probably bets on ANY OTHER CARD on the turn, and my trap is spring. Certainly, a check on an A high flop can indicate the under PP, or it can be a sneaky slow play (an Al specialty). It may very well be in that situation that I have paid so small a price to see my KK that I can be pushed off of it by the prospect of the A having me beat too.

In other words, my trap play here is actually safer than the raise, because I will rely upon good post flop play to determine my next move, and maximizes the potential for raking in a huge pot.

If you have JJ, protect it or fold it. KK is so big a hand, the risk/reward potential of a slowplay preflop is huge, and it is absolutely critical you disguise your strength effectively. Of course, when in doubt (i.e the flop offers straight or flush draws consistent with Al's likely holdings), you have an all in bet available post flop for that protection.

Okay....I've got you to the final table and beyond. I expect next blog will return to the final table, getting shorter, the money getting bigger.....

And the Lady of Luck is peeking at your cards....