Holdin' The Rope

Michigan-Illinois: Head Body

2012-03-02T07:00:00.000-05:00

Michigan 72 (22-8, 12-5), Illinois 61 (17-13, 6-11)

Tim says "Nnanna-not today"...yeah, that's how good I feel

about this (AP/John Dixon)

In this day and age, when the stakes have never been higher, the payouts never bigger, the stages never larger, it would seem that empathy has gone the way of other collegiate dodos: the leather helmet, unironic invocation of the term "student-athlete," and the dynasty (i.e. the Wooden years). There's no time to feel sorry for anyone, because the moment you start doing that is the moment you start falling behind, and then roles spin like a top and reverse; people start feeling sorry for you, and ain't that just a shame.

There haven't been many instances in my time as a sports fan when I have watched one of my teams grind an opponent into fine powder only to feel a little bit sorry about the whole thing. I have never seen (well, through the TV) a gym sound so devoid of life as Assembly Hall seemed to be from the word go last night. By the end, I was feeling this thing they call empathy, as watching Illinois look so spectacularly confused on offense was like a compact 40-minute reminder of the Amaker era. Meyers Leonard deferred and played with a general lack of something that was obviously not up to the moment. Brandon Paul threw up impossible shot after shot, and I'm not sure whether Illinois fans should be shaking their heads or asking "well, what else is there?" Nobody else contributed anything of import, and all the while Bruce Weber gnashed his teeth and stomped his feet for a while before seemingly coming to grips with his Fate. It was a veritable funeral march; doubt lingers no longer in Champaign.

And so, in a way, this one was over before it had even begun. The Illini were as careless and generally purposeless in their half-court sets as they've been throughout the last month or so of play, each possessive a sort of atomic theater. Parts moving chaotically here and there with great uncertainty and with no discernible meaning. Scientists have partially cracked the subatomic code, but I'm not sure that the smartest man alive could explain the theory behind the Illini offense under coach Bruce Weber as it currently manifests itself.

With all of that said, this was a smashing victory for the Wolverines, one that a contender wins in precisely that way. Michigan held a 2-point lead--46-44--halfway through the second half. They had the chance to allow things to fall apart and allow a reeling Illinois team back into it. They did not. They went head body, according to plan*. The big guys fall hard, you know.

I'm not sure what it is about playing Illinois, but it has for whatever reason brought out the very best in THJ this season. He was just about as efficient as you can possibly be, and his shot was crisp, clean, and confident. Bacari Alexander will now be given the task of using whatever psychological tropes he can muster to convince THJ that they are playing Illinois before every game from here on out. John Gasaway says:

It's hard to disagree. This Michigan team has, by varying combinations of Trey Burke, Beilein sorcery, TRUE GRIT, and Bacari Alexander motivational ploys, manufactured a 22-8 record with THJ struggling for long, bleak stretches of conference play. Imagine, oh imagine, what this team can accomplish with a THJ circa the end of last season added to the fold. It might be a little much to expect him to shoot this well all the time, or as well as he did during Michigan's tourney push last season, but if he can maintain the nearly palpable aura of confidence that was on display last night, this team will be very, very difficult to beat. I hate to inject cold expectations into this wonderful paragraph of pure optimism, but if Michigan was a pretty solid Sweet 16 bet before, a wheelin' and dealin' THJ ups that by a round. Most importantly, it seemed that this was the first time THJ was having fun on the court.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

As you all know, Michigan just needs to take care of business in Happy Valley and hope for a Buckeye win for a piece of the Big Ten title. Even if it doesn't happen, THJ's potential return to his former level of play is arguably more encouraging/important news.

In any case, as flat as the Illini were--and as seemingly incompetent as Bruce Weber has been--Michigan went in and won this with authority. Michigan simply needed to execute the offense, play solid defense and let the Illini give them free points via turnovers or possession of the ball after a pointless 30 second possession that results in a Brandon Paul brick from 25 feet out. The Illini were the very definition of the punch drunk fighter, waiting to be out out of their misery; after a series of surgical, pinpoint flurries--a body shot then to the head and back to the body--and the Illini were done, and Michigan was victorious, with a chance to play for a potential share of the championship belt on the docket.

*Yes, if you can't tell I recently watched The Fighter.
**This asterisk doesn't track back to anything but I'm just going to put this here: Jalen's performance wasn't a masterpiece in sports commentary but it was fun. People often forget, but this is all supposed to be fun and generally enjoyable. Jalen dominated the mic a little too much at times, but given the fact that he was calling a Michigan game, that's to be somewhat expected. All in all, his off-the-cuff, effervescent delivery was refreshing, especially when juxtaposed with the stylings of one Jay "Sam the Eagle" Bilas.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Just Like Daddy":

Burke--So, lost amidst the sea of THJ praise, Trey had himself a game. He was 7-13 from the field (2-3 from 3), with 5 assists to only 2 giveaways en route to a 21-point virtuoso effort. It's hard not to say this after almost every game, but he seriously looks like a senior out there. If he doesn't win Freshman of the Year then I don't even know what to say.

THJ--See all of the above, but to lay it out numerically for you: 25 points, 6-7 from the field (a perfect 4-4 from 3), 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block. Perhaps most encouragingly, he toed the FT line 10 times, making 9 of them.

Novak--Off day from the field (1-7 total, 0-2 from outside) but he did the gritty chores that he always does. He took a key charge and pitched in 4 assists and 5 boards (2 of those of the offensive variety), en route to a quiet but typically Novakian performance.

Douglass--Hit tone-setting threes to start each half but was off otherwise (2-9 overall, 2-7 from 3). Didn't need anything more than a couple threes, no turnovers, and solid D from the Swiss Army knife, and that's what Michigan got.

Morgan--Again, Michigan didn't need a huge performance here but Morgan definitely showed up big down low, making Leonard work for his points. Quite frankly, Leonard was very tentative and, dare I say it, soft throughout most of the game, and it's logical to think that JMo's classically hard-nosed D played a significant role. He had an efficient day from the field, going 3-4 with his only miss coming on a rare 10-12 foot jumper in the paint. He did sustain a shoulder injury of the stinger type as a result of a physical box out on Leonard; needless to say, if Morgan is really hurt then Michigan could be in trouble, whether THJ is shooting the lights out or not.

Smotrycz--Impressively fouled out in just 13 minutes of play...which is fine, as he was tasked with trying to defend Leonard, an enormous mismatch. Hit a three and also picked up a pair of boards and a pair of steals.
Vogrich--Was hoping he'd have himself another game playing back in his home state but went scoreless instead. Did notch a steal.
Christian--Got in there over McLimans for 5 minutes of play, enough time for him to score his first bucket since the Memphis game and also have a nice finish negated by a charge call. Also grabbed an offensive board and recorded a block in his short time. If Morgan is actually hurt enough to sit out the PSU game (just speculating, of course) due to precautionary thinking, we could get a good look at CC, which really couldn't hurt even if he doesn't play at all heading into the post-season tournaments.

Illinois Preview: Near the End of the Road

2012-03-01T08:00:00.011-05:00

General Outlook
The Wolverines took on the Illini in Crisler less than 3 weeks ago, a game that played out much like the one played on the gridiron this past fall. Michigan mostly outplayed the Illini in the first half and yet was only up by a somewhat unsatisfying 6-point margin. For a variety of reasons, Meyers Leonard was a complete non-factor after the opening minutes of the game, and Michigan went on to lead by as much as 14 in the second half before sealing up a comfortable 9-point win.

I've already had the chance to preview the Illini, and not much has changed since I last took a look at this sinking ship. So, this preview will probably be somewhat shorter.

"No, DO NOT give it to the 7'1''
guy WARGHBARGHLL!"

Since we last met, the Illini have continued their losing ways; they've gone 1-3 since the meeting in Ann Arbor. The Illini dropped a close home contest to the Boilers, but the next two losses pretty much representing the dousing with kerosene of Weber's chances to still be the head coach in Champaign next season. Illinois went to Lincoln and got destroyed, losing by 23 and at one point allowing the Huskers to go on a 43-7 run, something so catastrophic that it can't be called a "run" so much as a systematic, unimpeded bludgeoning. Yes, you read that correctly: 43-7. This is the same Nebraska team that often looks like a glorified high school team (no offense, Doc...you still have the raddest name of all the B1G coaches).

After that, the Illini went on to look completely outclassed against the Buckeyes on the road, the very same Buckeye team that they were able to pick off at home back right before the jukebox eternally set to play Yakety Sax began to follow the team everywhere. The good news is the Illini did pick up a home win against Iowa on Monday that ended that brutal 6-game losing streak. In further efforts to motivate his flailing team, Weber benched Leonard and Paul after a few "practices determines who starts" practices. It's safe to say that Paul and Leonard will be back in the starting lineup, as this ain't no time for motivational ploys. Weber claims otherwise, but I find it hard to believe that either will come off the bench. It's stand up or go home for the Illini, and they will be playing in accordance with this fact.

The Offense
In conference play, the Illini are 7th in ppg given up at 67.6 per. Needless to say, it has not been smooth sailing; Illinois's long depressing month of failure is filled with crooked numbers given up defensively (i.e. 70+). Thankfully for the Illini, they have a guy like Leonard to mitigate some of their defensive lapses, so one can only wonder how bad this defense might be if they didn't have an above average shot-blocker patrolling the paint.

MOAR

Additionally, Brandon Paul is a relatively active defender on the ball (1.5 spg), as is DJ Richardson to a lesser extent (0.9 spg). So, Michigan will have to be leery in the paint--since getting two fouls on Leonard relatively early in the game might be difficult to accomplish a second time, especially on the road--and the defensive pressure will there on the perimeter. It is senior night, and the Illini need to win this game to slowly push away that match that is currently behind held inches away from the kerosene soaked 2011-12 Illinois campaign. I haven't really kept up with the shifting nuances of the bubble, but if the Illini win out and win 2 games in the BTT, that puts them at 21 wins. I'm saying there's a chance, but I'm also decidedly not a member of the selection committee.

Michigan had very good success against the Illini at home; most notably, inconsistent x-factory types THJ and Smotrycz both pitched in double digit points (15 and 13, respectively). Hardaway attacked the basket, going 3/6 from 2 and making a pair of trips to the free throw line. Alas, Tim has decided that not giving turning real human beings into rageface comics is not his calling in life. Tim will need to replicate his effort the first time around if Michigan wants to escape with the victory, otherwise things could get very dicey, as they often do when you're attempting to get yourself a win on the road by gunning from long range.

The Defense
Outside of the disheartening performance last Saturday, Michigan has been incredibly stingy (which has to in some part be attributed to Greg Mattison's presence at games). The Wolverines are third in defensive ppg in conference play, spearheaded by some gritastic efforts from Jordan Morgan down low and the consistently solid to very good defense from Trey and Stu on the perimeter.

In Ann Arbor, the Illini showed why they had been having so much trouble on the offensive end despite having talents like Paul and Leonard on the roster. Illinois turned the ball over with alacrity, as they've done throughout most of conference play. The Illini are tied with Minnesota in turnovers per game (14.1), turning the ball over on 21.6% of their offensive possessions. That is awful. Even Brandon Paul, who managed to score 21 while mostly being defended by Stu, turned it over a whopping 7 times.

Conventional wisdom says that if you play solid defense the Illini will self-destruct like so:

Michigan held Leonard to a measly 5 points, which, to be honest, was a product of a puzzling lack of usage and a few attempts around the basket that he just flat out missed. Morgan played good, gritty defense, and I don't want to sell Michigan's team defense short. However, for Leonard to get only 5 attempts from the field in any given game, you'd have to think that Weber is perhaps not a very good basketball coach and entirely deserving of his imminent firing. I rarely go out of the way to call coaches out like that, but come on...five attempts? The only way a player like Leonard gets five attempts on a team like that--with only one other legitimate headliner of a scoring threat--is if the head coach doesn't, as he should, tell his team to "GET THE TALL GUY THE BALL, HE'S 7'1'' FERGODSAKES." Clearly, Weber does not do that (or he doesn't emphasize it...if the guards don't work to feed Leonard the ball, it is ultimately Weber's fault).

I think that it's probably safe to say that Tyler Griffey won't explode for another 18-point effort while Leonard likely won't get only 5 points. Home cooking alone will see him get to the line enough times to get him into the double digits; with a free throw rate of 45.6 in conference play, he gets to the line often.

Who/What To Watch

Michigan's 3-point attempts...yes, attempts, but not for the reason you may think. In the process of trying to assimilate advanced stats into my basketball worldview, I've learned that a team's ability to limit 3-point attempts is just as important as the percentage that opponents shoot, if not moreso...which does make sense. In this sense, the Illini are actually pretty good; only the Badgers are allowing less 3-point attempts than Illinois. Michigan averages 23 attempts per game in conference play, and they only put up 16 in the first meeting. Luckily for Michigan, they made 7 of those 16, but I'm not sure that expecting a similar percentage on the road is wise. Even if Michigan wants to throw up 30+ treys--like they have the last two games--I'm not sure that Illinois will even let that happen. This is a little disconcerting, as this means those frenzied chicken-with-its-head-cut-off possessions seem destined for shot clock violations and many other sorts of turnovers.

It's simple enough, but Leonard vs. fouls. If Michigan can coax him into a bad foul early--Vogrich's aggressive baseline drive to draw a foul on him comes to mind--then this is going to be another win; period, end of story, Guaransheed it.

Good THJ vs. Evil Handlebar Mustache-Wearing 3-Point Attempting THJ. Which one will it be? The rims get a little tighter and less forgiving on the road, so if he wants to be a factor he will need to attack early when it is there. Michigan hitting some early threes will go a long way toward opening up the middle of the floor for some of those horizontal "slice" cuts that he has made a living on (when he's decided to operate in 2-point land).

Meaningless Prediction
If not for an 18-point effort from Tyler Griffey off the bench, the Illini would've lost in embarrassing fashion in Ann Arbor. However, as mentioned, I find it hard to believe that Leonard will not get to double digit points this time via FT shooting alone. Weber and his players are in desperation mode, which can turn out to be either really good or really bad for an opponent.

Michigan's disappointing loss against Purdue was like the reopening of a scab covering the old wound known as toomanythreesitis. I know that we shoot threes because this is Ann Arbor and THIS IS WHAT WE DO, but shooting 30+ threes is not a tenable strategy in the short term or in tournament play. When you adjust for home court and a few players' points going way up (Leonard) or way down (Griffey), I think this one shakes out to a nail-biter. As bad as Illinois has been, a close win would be nothing to be ashamed of. For some reason, I'm feeling a Trey Burke shot to put Michigan ahead on Michigan's last possession after a 39+ minutes of back and forth generic Big Ten ball. Michigan 62, Illinois 60.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 2/28/2012

2012-02-28T15:38:00.001-05:00

Weekly Shameless Self/MnB-promotion: I wrote some stuff about Zack and Stu over at MnB...you can read it or you can not, but hopefully you choose the former. Also, make sure to check out the site at large if you haven't already. It has gone to being on "hiatus" to producing regular stuff in less than a couple of weeks, which is pretty tremendous indeed.

The Doctor Is Out: As you probably know, Matt Hinton of Dr. Saturday (and formerly Sunday Morning Quarterback) has decided to hang 'em up. While he has indicated that this isn't it for him re: writing about college football, it's still unclear what the next step is. I would have to agree with Spencer Hall's proposition:

I have a hard time imagining him not finding a better opportunity to keep doing what he does at a place with less officious superiors. The blog had gradually been oppressed by a vague sort of TMZification, and it's pretty clear that Hinton was not the source of that.

I'm sure I'm not the only one that, with some definite sadness, deleted Dr. Saturday from my bookmarked sites. After MGoBlog and EDSBS, Dr. Saturday was my next stop along the pothole-laden information superhighway cutting through the land of College Football. It was a place where you could, on a daily basis, just become a better college football fan if you so chose. Despite writing for a big entity like Yahoo, the site was more than just a mere accumulator of links and offensively generic, unmemorable "takes." His work was a reminder that real people play and teach this game, and that it is not the NFL just yet.

As someone who has linked to Dr. Saturday on many an occasion, I'm sad to see Hinton go; thankfully, we can reasonably assume that he will find a new spot to call home. Part of his work at Dr. Saturday was just, well, plain 'ol work (i.e. pumping out 4-6 articles a day during football season) but the pieces that made Hinton unique required true talent and writing ability. These things are not in great supply.

News from the NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE.: So the NFL Combine--arguably the creepiest event in sports outside of college recruiting (which is more of a omnipresent stank than an "event," other than NSD, obviously)--happened and our former warrior philosopher poets, Molk, Martin, and Hemingway, all did vey well. The Combine has always been a silly thing, but it's a hoop that you have to jump through, and it's clear that all three's showings will positively affect their respective draft statuses. Regarding Junior, one scout said:

There aren't more receivers that did more for themselves than that guy. He wasn't even on our radar going into this thing. He is now. It's way too early to say where or if he'll be drafted, I'm not prepared to make that distinction, but he's definitely in the conversation now. And that's more than you could have said about him a week ago.

Junior ran a 4.53 40, which, quite frankly is a little shocking. Junior also finished first or tied for first --out of 26 receivers--in the 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle, while also coming in second in the 60-yard shuttle. Protip to my Bears: so, I know David Terrell didn't really work that one time but hear me out. Forget about taking Michael Floyd with the 19th pick and grab Junior late...you can thank me later.

As for Molk and Martin, well, in case you weren't aware, they are both kind of strong. Molk put up a ridiculous 41 rep effort on the bench, which is amazing even if you have little T-rex arms. Martin, on the other hand, put up 36 after declaring that he would beat the bench press record of 49* set by former Oregon State DT (current Chicago Bear) Stephen Paea. This must've been incredibly disappointing after training for this one moment for so long; I've only seen a few quick highlights of the combine so I have no idea if there was anything wrong with him, physically, but I feel like 36 has to have been well below even his prior standards.

You know that you are strong when people are somewhat disappointed when you put up 225 pounds a mere 36 times. Clearly Mike Martin was foolishly leaning on faulty Barwis advice** when he could've gotten some free advice from the student workout warriors filling up the IM Building/CCRB; "if it's not bench you might as well not be doing it" needs to be installed somewhere in those places, kind of like an M Club Supports You banner but for the most insufferable people in Ann Arbor.

*I'm not sure why every article repeats this fact, but the record is actually 51, set by Justin Ernest of EKU in 1999. You are now armed with this utterly useless fact. Maybe, one day, you can use it to condescendingly start a sentence with the following: "Well, aaaactually..."
**For the sarcasm-impaired...that was a joke.

GERG Redux: Relax, it's Not That Gerg. After some previously unofficial chatter, Iowa has decided to plunge headlong into the perilous situation known as "having a coordinator named Greg that is not Greg Mattison." Yes, Iowa has officially announced the hiring of Greg Davis as Kirk Ferentz's new OC. A GIS leads to these pictures popping up near the top:

Also, this:

This could all end up working out just fine, but yeah...the back-to-back hirings of Phil Parker and Greg Davis isn't exactly awe-inspiring. These hirings represent a metaphorical gunning of the car of Time; in a short time, Iowa's 2002-04 Reign of Terror suddenly feels like ancient history. It might have been not that long ago, but in that rear view mirror it's starting to look like more and more like a distant, dust-veiled memory.

With so much coaching turnover to overcome in both Iowa City and Madison, I really have a hard time envisioning either winning more than 8 games in 2012.

Things That Didn't Happen: Wolverine Historian with some basketball highlights, straight out of that fine year 1993, from a game featuring a mask-wearing Webber:

More? Rob Lytle, Jumbo Elliott, and Erick Anderson make the 2012 College Football Hall of Fame ballot. Jack Johnson has received a fate that I would wish upon no one. Crisler construction pictures at UMHoops.

Michigan-Purdue: In the Brick House

2012-02-26T08:00:00.018-05:00

Michigan 61 (21-8, 11-5), Purdue 75 (19-10, 9-7)

Terone Johnson attacks as Michigan all the while further

strengthens its strangehold on the brick-laying sector of the basketball economy (AP/Carlos Osorio)

After the Northwestern game, a contest in which Michigan threw up an inconceivable number of 3s, on the road, while having been down 7 at the half, there was talk of Big Ten titles, tournament seeding, and, in "talking to a pitcher in the 8th inning of a shutout" fashion, mention of even loftier goals. It was hastily forged discussion that fed into itself to the point that the goal seemed a realistic possibility by virtue of the fact that people talked about it as a possibility, kind of like when you convince yourself that you ran a 4.6 in high school that one time when a tired coach that wanted to go home hand-timed you after practice. You have no way of really proving it but it happened and you mention it over and over again as the years go idly by. It becomes a pseudo-fact of the undisprovable, foolish variety.

This game was a reminder that Michigan, when they want to be, can look eminently mid-majory (and not the "good" kind of mid-major). At the same time, if you can't already tell from the facetious Pop Evil reference in the title of this post, "I ain't even mad though," as they say. From a basketball perspective, this game didn't exactly reveal anything that we didn't already know about this team. Don't let Trey turn the corner on the pick and roll and you've essentially shut down half the offense. After that, take your chances with Michigan's erratic bunch of gritsters and THJ--Honorary Member of the Jay Cutler Bad Body Language Hall of Fame--do their thing from outside, and by "their thing" I mean throw up enough bricks to build the base for what should be a statue of Zack Novak outside of Crisler (the statue must obviously include the iconic blood streak down the face; posterity must know the meaning of true grit). Michigan shot 38 at Northwestern and still managed to win; this time, Michigan shot 32, and, well, it didn't go so well (28%). This is not a tenable strategy, but, you knew that already.

Let me give credit where it is due. Purdue played a great game and they easily deserved to win this game. They needed the big win that was absent from their resume and got it, in dominating fashion. Hummel and Lewis Jackson--the latter whom has become one of the my favorite non-Michigan players in recent memory--played like the seniors they are, ingloriously fighting to not miss the tournament. However, sophomore Terone Johnson was of course the story of the game. He scored 22 on 9-12 from the field; ALL of his makes were from 2. It was difficult to watch him attack the basket with impunity as fellow sophomore guard Tim Hardaway Jr. clanked three after three, despite having some tantalizing success of his own off of "slice cuts" and other avenues of attacking the basket. You're sitting there watching, thinking: do more of that. Then, he does not comply with your request. End scene.

I feel a post on this coming later, but: is Terone Johnson really that much better of a player? He was a four star so it's not like he's some anonymous scrub by any means, but man. Last time around, it was THJ putting up a crooked number while Johnson only put up a mere 4 points. I've been staunchly in the "let's just ride this out even if it takes all season" camp re: THJ (not that any of us have a choice; whether your impetus is loyalty or an understanding of the depth chart's lack of, uh, depth, he's our guy, period), but it's getting harder and harder, particularly given that March is right around the corner. I'm not even saying that he should stop shooting entirely, because that's obviously ridiculous and demonstrates a lack of understanding of how the game works and is played. With that said, come tourney time, THJ's alacrity to shoot it from outside could directly lead to the end of Michigan's season. It's that simple. It really comes down to him just taking a few less a game. Instead of taking that three that you can get at literally any time in the offense, drive if you can and dish outside or to JMo when the D collapses. Or, just don't take the shot and reset the offense up top. Right now, THJ is that guy at the IM Building who you hate playing with because he jacks up a trey every time he gets the ball.

Last year's torrid shooting is not of import anymore; enough time has passed that we can and should analyze THJ in light of what he currently is and not what he was capable of doing last year. In short: recalibrate your expectations and/or pre-conceived notions if you haven't already. If you're looking for a silver lining, the fact that Michigan has had the season that it's had with THJ performing the way that he has, he is sort of an ace in the hole going forward. If the proverbial light goes on, Michigan is going places.

The most disappointing facet of all of this is that it was senior night, Michigan's undefeated home record received its first blemish, and a share of the regular season title is almost certainly out of the question. It would've been nice, but let's be honest: we'd all take a deep tourney run over a regular season title any day of the week. Not that the two are mutually exclusive, of course, but it's better to purge these sorts of performances from the collective stock of possible outings now rather than later.

Even more disappointing than all of the aforementioned is that this game would've served as a sort of calming force, a reassurance that, yeah, maybe we really are that good. To be honest, I think we are still that good. This team is certainly capable of a Sweet 16 team (and maybe better if the bracket goes a certain way) Unfortunately, come tourney time, that doesn't matter; all it takes is one poor effort. As we've seen, when Michigan loses they lose hard. I say that Michigan is capable of a tourney run that we haven't seen in a very long time, and yet, this performance elevate the creeping suspicion that we could just as easily get bounced in the first round. I highly doubt that will actually happen, but when you look at the way Michigan has lost this season, is it really out of the question?

Among many things, I came into this game looking for reassurance...what I got was unadulterated nightmare fuel. It's the type of thing that, the night before Michigan's first-round game, will wake you up in a cold sweat: the threes, the threes, the threes, they clank off every time. The horror, the horror.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "That Was Turrible, Kenny":

Burke--A tough outing to be sure. I'll say this again, but Lewis Jackson is a frustrating little guy to have to play against. Trey turned it over 4 times, at least a couple which lead directly to points for the Boilers. If any future opponents need the blueprint for defending Trey Burke, this would be a good game to watch. When Burke is prevented from turning the corner on the P&R as he was over and over again last night, this offense finds itself in a quagmire of useless dribbling and late-into-the-shot-clock 3 chucking.
THJ--You know, if you take out the 0-6 from 3, Tim went 5-7 from inside the arc en route to 10 points and six boards. However, you can't eliminate that, and paired with four turnovers, watching THJ crumble mentally within the first five minutes of each game is becoming painful to watch. I wish I had snapped a picture of THJ's facial expression after his airball from the top of the key; it was an apropos combination of horror, disbelief, and nihilistic rage. I would love for Beilein to cut up a Terone Johnson highlight tape from this game, show it to THJ, and be all "Hey, do that." It's gotten to the point that each brick is becoming an obvious spirit-killer. I understand the frustration that comes with not being able to do a thing that, in your heart and mind, is a thing that you can (and have) done with great success before. At the same time, part of the maturation process is realizing when it just isn't working, and how not realizing or acknowledging this fact can affect the team. These next two games will be huge for THJ.
Douglass--Amidst the sea of under-performance, Stu filled up the stat sheet quite nicely, as we've almost come to expect. He went 3-7 from the field for 7 points, while also grabbing 4 boards, 5 assists, a steal, and one Serge Ibaka impression on Lewis Jackson in the lane (i.e., a block). Stu Douglasss is the Swiss Army knife of basketball players. It is unfortunate that his last game in Crisler had to be that.
Novak--I feel doubly bad for Zack; he really deserved to end his career in Crisler under better terms. Minus an early two, all of his attempts were from 3, where he went 4-10. A quiet game, really, which is pretty heartbreaking.
Morgan--Without the pick and roll really getting going in any way, JMo wasn't able to make a significant difference. He did go 4-7 from the field but Shaq'd a pair of FTs and also missed at least one bunny (from what I can remember of this haze of senior night sadness). As a Bulls fan, watching him miss bunnies and get his shot blocked with regularity in the paint is eerily redolent of Carlos Boozer; that is not a good thing.

Smotrycz--Had a very nice back down of a smaller Purdue defender (Ryne Smith?) that led to an easy two at the basket. Also hit a three, but other than that he just didn't do much to give Michigan a spark from the bench. Even if he had, Michigan wasn't going to win this game.
Vogrich--Hit a deep three, missed two others. When THJ goes out, Diet Novak gets called in from the bullpen, which is like going from a fireballer to the frisbee-tossing Shingo Takatsu. Once the novelty wears off, he sort of just becomes a guy, out there.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 2/21/2011

2012-02-21T11:54:00.001-05:00

A Site Note: If you haven't noticed, Maize N Brew is back to producing daily content. I've been invited to contribute on a semi-regular basis. I put up my first piece on Monday, on the topic of Saturday's game. I also put a word in on the subject of Big Ten power rankings. If you read this blog, odds are you are more than interested in looking for additional sources of Michigan-centric information/editorializing/stupid photoshopping to keep you occupied ~~while at work~~, so you'll definitely want to check Maize N Brew out; a link is available in the blog roll down there to the left if you'd let to jump off from here.

In short, go check it out.

The Importance of Being GRITTY: Andy Staples decided to run through the notable under-the-radar sorts that made significant impacts on college football squads far and wide. Naturally, Michigan features prominently. Jordan Kovacs, Patrick Omameh, and ~~Will Heininger~~ Nathan Brink [derp--the list is for 2012, obviously, so no Heininger] all make the list.

If you're the sort that thinks of the negatives first, I will oblige you by saying that, yes, the fact that these guys were forced into action speaks to our talent level and/or our touted talent's inability to perform (and, certainly, be coached with any level of competence..I'll leave it at that). Now that that's out of the way...man. After years of watching schools like Wisconsin and Iowa manufacture solid to pretty good anonymous walk-ons (particularly at safety), we finally have one of our own. Jordan Kovacs is no longer a nice story: he is pretty darn good, period. Think about how far he's come since getting dusted by Darius Willis--a slow Indiana tailback--in 2009. Don't look now, but in light of my TIME IS RUNNING OUT Denard alarum...Kovacs only has one more go at it himself. Savor that sweet sweet safety competence before we have to head back to the great void of uncertainty that comprised most, if not all, of the post-1997 years (depending on how strongly you feel about the Adams and Englemon pairing).

Omameh's story is no less impressive. If I remember correctly, Omameh was one of those guys in the first RR/Lloyd class that RR brought in just before NSD. Omameh had some issues transitioning to the new offense this season, but he got better as the year went on. With another year left to go for him, I'd expect some All-Conference consideration coming his way. A 2-star project to make it to the starting lineup is impressive--depth chart notwithstanding-- in and of itself, but anything after that is just gravy. Hey 2-stars and walk-ons: Ann Arbor is where the magic happens.
/Omameh'd

After all the Brink hysteria leading up to the opener last year, Heininger was the unheralded walk-on guy that actually became a legitimate piece in the DL rotation. As Brian noted in his UFRs, he was more than a last resort plug-in; he actually MADE PLAYS at times. Injuries in his last two seasons partially derailed what could have been another impressive story. As great as Kovacs has been, to become a contributor on the defensive line is a different beast entirely. Heininger will prove to be an underrated loss going forward. But, Brink should hopefully be able to follow in Heininger's gritty shoes.

Things That People Write When They Have To Say Something About Nothing: Tom Fornelli, in what was probably a throwaway, offhand comment, but still:

Yeah, I don't think anybody was expecting Denard to actually to put the football through the hoop from full court, but the coming up short or just missing wide right is a bit disconcerting, no?

BENCH DENARD FIRE EVERYBODY RUN FOR THE HILLS. Denard, I know you run a 4.3...but why not a 4.2 or a 4.1, even? I am disconcerted. Even Dr. Saturday picked up on this theme, writing in a similarly humorous fashion while also joining the legions of people who continue to spell Hemingway incorrectly. I would blame the authors of these articles, but I think that the grotesque monstrosity called "the offseason" is more to blame here. Commenter "Chaz"--who you can tell from his name is probably a really cool dude who knows a lot of important things and you would definitely not not want to hang out with--takes the time to extrapolate the following from Denard's performance at Crisler:

Thank You. Someone else realizes he's really not that good. He's a good athlete but not a good QB.

Indeed, Chaz. Fire Denard, everything is terrible, etc.

Northwestern: Sobocop Redux: It seems like the afterglow of the OSU game has not yet worn off, but here we are with another game to watch. Michigan travels to Northwestern to play at Welsh-Ryan, a venue that has not been kind to us in the last couple of seasons. If I remember correctly, even when we won in 2008-09, it was in OT. Nick Baumgardner gives you 4 things to watch for tonight, and 1 and 4 are of the most interest to me.

Morgan on a 5-playing Shurna sounds like a 20+ point effort waiting to happen (from Shurna, that is). Of course, I'm sure Shurna will see his fair share of Smotrycz. As for #4, I will say that I have a less than optimistic view of tonight's potential outcome. For the record, I think Michigan finishes 3-1, with the one loss coming tonight. It sounds like Welsh-Ryan will be sold out, and many Northwestern folks seem to be building this up like it's the biggest game in program history. I doubt that is actually true, but Michigan is a top 11 team* and the Wildcats will be fighting for a tourney berth, which will all but slip away into the great abyss if they lose this game. I won't be previewing it, but most of the stuff from my first preview still applies.

Also, yes: Sobolewski will be referred to as Sobocop for the rest of his time at Northwestern. Insult or encomium? It doubles as both, I guess. Northwestern fans, feel free to appropriate it as your own.

*

Home Sweet Home: Despite a 10-year deal with ~~Emperor Palpatine~~ Jerry Jones, the Aggie-Razorback series will move to campus locations for the 2012 and 2013 games. With Texas dropping off the Aggie schedule, I think Arkansas could more than adequately fill that hatred vacuum as the years go by. Taking this game to College Station and Fayetteville will go a long way toward that goal. As weird as Texas A&M is as an entity, they're like kerosone: all SEC teams need is a match and you've got a rivalry.

In any case, more games on campus sites=good. Obviously, these two are now in the same conference and this was inevitable, anyway, but as a general rule I think that these games need to be played at campus locations. Brian has mentioned this over and over again, but as someone who has spent several years in Alabama, having the chance to watch the winged helmets take the field at Bryant-Denny would have been a surreal, pseudo-transcendent experience. Instead, we're playing it in the alien spaceship from Independence Day also known as Cowboys Stadium. I can't wait to guilt myself into buying $400+ tickets for nosebleed seats in a stadium in Not Even Dallas...fergodsakes.

More? Hey, NFL teams, a protip: you want this man on your team. The Cock of Victory from the WLA: OHIO BEATEN. Add "trees" to the list of "things that Nick Saban doesn't care about." MnB preview of the Northwestern game tonight from the_white_tiger.

Time and Quarterbacks and Yesterday

2012-02-16T08:00:00.010-05:00

This upcoming fall, Denard Robinson will be a senior. It will be his last year as a Wolverine.

Was this yesterday? It is yesterday like that moment from your childhood, the one that, through some process of by and large senseless mental natural selection, survived the years and became entrenched, a moment so brief--and potentially, probably, trivial--yet definitive of an era.

In 1997, after the Wisconsin game, I remember walking through a Toys R Us parking lot with my parents. The asphalt was wet--I remember this--and I could only think about how good the team had looked--in fact, I think I remember saying "They looked really good"--and what was in store for Michigan, before the BCS and realignment and any other number of post-modern gibberish diluted and sullied the product. This, and I was about to get a toy of some sort. Things were as good as they could be. The wind in my sails was forceful but kind.

I remember watching the 1998 Rose Bowl, a week before my 9th birthday. I was eating Skittles--I remember this, Wild Berry, I think--and watching the action unfold in my Midwestern living room as the Wolverines and Cougars took the field in a sun-soaked Eden, all of which I couldn't truly appreciate but knew was something to be in awe of. Living in the suburbs of Chicago at the time and thus concurrently experiencing the second Bulls 3-peat, I was spoiled. I watched every game expecting the Bulls to win, and they almost always did. When they went 72-10 in the 1995-96 season, each loss seemed a grave indignity by virtue of their infrequency, my reactions then to those losses only matched by my modern-day consternation on Saturdays when Michigan's helmets decided to spot an opponent more than 14 points. It was the closest that the NBA--or any other brand of sport--was ever elevated to and allowed to coexist on the same plane of existence that Michigan football occupied, occupies, and will continue to occupy.

I remember always feeling a sense of unspoken dread whenever the Bulls wore black in those days. Whether backed by fact or not, it always seemed that they would lose when donning the black road uniforms as opposed to the red ones. This relic of superstition survives to this very day, as useless as the appendix. When the Bulls wear black, I reflexively expect defeat.

I only got to experience the last three years of Jordan's career in Chicago (I hear he played somewhere after that--for the preservation of my idyllic view of that time, I continue to ignore that Pretender arrogating the throne of MJ), but those three years were arguably the longest years of my life. They were three years of unadulterated sports bliss, and they were probably best consumed in the time my life in which they were consumed. Each year was a triumphant march toward what I felt was rightfully Chicago's, and I mean that in the naive way that a child believes it and not an adult's rage-filled insistence that his team deserves and should win it every year in an invocation of Divine Right. The adult could learn something from the child; Divine Right in sports comes from this world and not on high (whether literally on high--a Heaven of sorts where sports is the chief concern--or as a part of an artificial notion of deservedness interwoven within a city's character vis-a-vis its sports teams.

All of this was taken in while Michigan was making its push for the Rose Bowl (and if I had only known about Michigan hockey circa the mid to late nineties, my understanding of how sports fandom is supposed to work might have been irrevocably stunted). Naturally, I was eight, and so the particulars of it all were never there in real time (what I know of that season is a combination of impressionistic recall and retrospective viewing and reading of whatever I can find on the Internet and elsewhere). The year, 1997, was marked in my mind by three things, things which aren't so much plays as they are concepts: Woodson's interception against MSU, Woodson's punt return, and Brian Griese waggles. Now, when a Michigan quarterback play actions and comes the other way, I rise out of my seat, conditioned like Pavlov's dog.

Fandom grows and changes and I don't think that necessarily means that something definitively good or bad is happening in the process. I will say that that time of my fandom--that period between 1996 and 1998--was the greatest era in my relatively brief career as a fan of sports. You would think that the reason for this would be four combined titles won between my two favorite teams at the time--the Michigan football team and the Jordan Bulls--but that is not the case, anymore. As the years have passed and I've been able to more fully appreciate what I had the luck to experience as a kid, the entire thing boils down to one issue. It is a concept that dominates everything around us, whether we choose to be aware of it not. We get older and relative duration is exchanged for clarity.

Time, time, time. It's all about time.

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As we get older, Time has a funny way of passing. As children, we are pushed through the fabric of space and time (Space and Time if we want to pretend about any number of things) slowly, as if to ease us into what lies ahead. Take your time, kid. High school and driving and college are all other such things are so far out of the realm of a child's comprehension that they can barely exist. Life is like a water slide: it starts off slow, giving you enough time to understand and enjoy the fact that THIS IS A WATER SLIDE before taking you through swiftly and with less meaning than you might want. 1996-1998 was like the initial part before the precipitous drop, before days shed hours and weeks and months flew by with astonishing speed.

Another watershed moment in my fandom occurred in 2004. Michigan was replacing a significant amount of firepower, of which quarterback was probably the most difficult to immediately replace. As good as Chris Perry was, the quarterback position is in a league of its own, and John Navarre was a good one in his final season despite what many will tell you.

Matt Gutierrez went down and true freshman Chad Henne became the starter. The following January, Michigan found themselves in the Rose Bowl on the heels of remarkable freshman seasons from Henne and a little guy named Hart--to the satisfaction of pun and sports cliche enthusiasts everywhere--and although Michigan had lost to two mediocre to bad teams in Notre Dame and Ohio State (and a Vince Young-led Longhorns team in the Rose Bowl), things were looking good. It was 2004, and we had three more years of this. It would only get better.

A few years later. I was a freshman at Michigan, watching my first game as a student. The senior year, which had been talked about for so long as if it were a Holy Grail, was here. Like Thomas Hobbes's opinion on the nature of life, it was short and brutish. The following season elaborated on this notion.

Then, Denard Robinson burst onto the scene in 2009. Unlike Henne, he had to wait a year before becoming the starting quarterback. A boon and a curse, the year came and went with efficient, heartless speed. This is the crux of the matter. When you get older, when the gravitational pull of life is strong enough to have pulled you into its orbit like the wayward bit of interstellar rock that you are, you are moving too fast for you to truly appreciate everything that is transpiring. Now, there is not enough time to even say that this will never end.

Some things are cynic-proof.

2010 and 2011 came and went, each replete with their own triumphs and misfortunes. He ran and ran but Time outpaced him. There is only one year left.

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Getting older has its negatives, as I've made clear. However, getting older allows the benefit of experience and hindsight. In 2004, I, like many, assumed that some combination of national and conference championships was an inevitability. In doing so, I think many lost the way. By 2007--and after the first two games of that season--there was a sense of dead weight, of a wasted something, an unattained ideal, all while things were happening that were worth really talking about.

Michigan went 11-2 this past season. Denard is now a senior, and Michigan returns much in the form of hope and a promise of the continuation of last year's successes. It is difficult to believe, however, that this will be the last season in which Denard Robinson will lead the Wolverines. When I think about it, I think of his run against Western in 2009, the 2010 ND game, and last year's Ohio game, wondering how it could have possibly happened this fast. Is this really it?

The boon of fandom, post-childhood, is that we can retain and store memories more precise and comprehensive than we could have imagined or been capable of as children. It is a simple fact of biology, and yet, it is the most endearing tool in our favor, as adults rooting for Michigan, attempting to revive the unburdened glow of childhood.

If you haven't started storing these sorts of things, start doing so. You'll wake up soon, January knocking at your door. The snow will be falling, perpendicular to the ground and in step with time, and Denard Robinson no longer playing for the Wolverines will have become a reality. This corporeal January will either scold you or shake your hand for what you've done, how you've handled the in between.

There will never be another Denard Robinson, just like there will never be another Chad Henne or Mike Hart. I made a mistake, in 2004, of establishing expectations, a reasonable projection. Wait till 2007, ad infinitum. 2007 is now, in a way, 2012.

To take on expectations--say, that Michigan won 11 games last season so they should logically win 11 again, or, even more ambitiously, more--is a mistake. It draws attention away from the reality on the field, whatever that may be. We have less than a year left with Denard, an allotment of time that would have once been an eternity. If time insists on moving faster as we slide, we might as well take notes. The curvature of the slide, a mental rendering of its layout in realtime, the exact feeling of the slide--the intermittent harshness and smoothness of it--and the exact moment when the realization that it's over descends, allowing itself to be described and understood as it happens. This is what we can do. It's the only thing to do; to take note, review, and bask in the clarity of memory in formation.

Michigan-Illinois: Alive

2012-02-13T08:00:00.047-05:00

Michigan 70, Illinois 61

Don't call it a comeback. (AP/Carlos Osorio)

In 2007, my freshman year and John Beilein's first season in Ann Arbor, I attended every home game of a season in which Michigan won 10 games. Unlike the Pearl Jam album, this aforementioned ten was not so great. That season, Michigan lost to: Central Michigan, Western Kentucky (who, at the team, was just Western Kentucky and not a team that would eventually make it to the Sweet 16), Harvard, and a majority of the Big Ten. We, the students, stormed the court after beating a Buckeye squad that would go on to miss the tournament a month later.

Michigan won nine pre-Big Ten tournament games that season. Right now, on February 13th, Michigan has nine conference wins after beating the Illini, with five games left to play. People aren't talking about whether or not Michigan will make the tournament. People aren't talking about whether or not this "system" can work in the gritty Big Ten, where the only offense is stingy defense and offensive sets can best be described as: measured, deliberate, dignified, decorous acquiescence to the notion that scoring points is somehow like drinking hemlock.

People are talking about seeding. A four, a five? There are distinct loci on the map of college basketball that Michigan now firmly occupies instead of the Purgatorial listlessness that once loomed over the program for over a decade. People are talking about Michigan's chances to win the conference title, regular season and tournament. That's not to say that Michigan will win either (the former hinges upon whether or not Michigan can beat the Buckeyes at home on Saturday), but people are talking about it. Think about how insane that is, as a concept and as a potential reality. A little over four years ago, Michigan was busy losing to an Amaker-coached Harvard squad, a moment in history that typifies the Universe's mischievous sense of humor.

Now, Michigan is winning road games, defending its home court as if it were Helm's Deep, and doing it all while leaning on a freshman point guard and a limited bench. John Beilein has assembled a spaceship out of aluminum foil, duct tape, and unadulterated tactics, a craft that I would say is bound for the Moon if it wasn't clearly destined for far more ambitious locales.

Brady Hoke led a similarly deficient squad to an 11-2 season, and yet, the question I have is shockingly rhetorical: has John Beilein's coaching job this season been any less impressive than what Hoke and the football team were able to accomplish? I would posit that the answer is a resounding no.

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As for the game itself, the formula for success was very much understood coming in. Getting Leonard into foul trouble was essentially the golden path to victory. Leonard picked up two within the first eight minutes and ended up playing only 27 when all was said and done. This also helped to mitigate the loss of JMo to early fouls; he had done a pretty job of avoiding that of late, but it happens. Michigan can't have that happen if they want to beat the Buckeyes, though.

With that said, Leonard was pretty much invisible after his two early buckets. He finished with 5 points, a testament to some solid defense on Michigan's and a little bit of luck. As I detailed in the preview, Leonard had been tearing teams up of late, so to hold him to five points was a significant achievement.

Otherwise, the Illini's offensive attack was as expected: frenetic, in a bad way. Michigan turned turnovers into points with regularity as if the Illini offense was a Coinstar machine. If it wasn't for a surprising 18-point effort from former starter Tyler "Don't Call Me Ken" Griffey, this game would have been a blowout.

Offensively, Michigan scored 70 on a decent defense despite seemingly leaving quite a few points on the floor in the form of some missed bunnies. However, the most important development was the return form of THJ and Smotrycz, both scoring in the double digits and displaying an esprit de corps that had been absent for quite some time. In addition, Vogrich had himself a game, building upon his shooting performance in Lincoln. If THJ and Smotrycz continue to pick themselves back out of their respective confidence sinkholes and Vogrich can continue to shoot the lights out and provide the underrated gritty exploits that he so consistently does, this team will be a terrifying matchup for a lot of folks come tournament time.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Trey Burke and Those Who Are Not Trey Burke":

Burke--Continues to be awesome. Had another one of his high-volume poor shooting days but it's obviously not a big deal under the circumstances. Fourteen points on 5/11 shooting from 2 (0/4 from 3), 3 assists, and a pair of steals make for another decidedly un-freshman-like performance. The rest of the schedule is relatively manageable; Burke-Craft Redux this Saturday will be one to watch vis-a-vis the progression of this supposed "freshman" playing basketball for us.

THJ--Let me just get this out first: WOOOOOOOOOO. Yes. This is how we do it, indeed. THJ paced the Wolverines with 15 points on 5/9 shooting (2/3 from 3), 3 boards, and 3 assists. He's getting better and better with the ball in his hands in transition...he's been dropping dimes like Patriots wideouts drop passes (I'll show myself the door now). There's nothing else to say but DO MORE OF THAT OKAY THANKS. The only negative is that his minutes were chopped up awkwardly by foul trouble, so I wonder how much better his stat line would have looked like if he was able to avoid that.

Morgan--A quiet day offensively but a large part of that is obviously the result of foul trouble. Also, went 0/3 from the line, not exactly helping his percentage, which is hovering close to 50% at this point. That's not good...hopefully that doesn't come back to bite us at some point. We have zero chance against the Buckeyes if JMo only logs 12 minutes again.

Novak--What can be said about the Mayor of the glorious berg of Gritville that hasn't already been said? Twelve points on only four FGA, but he did go 5/5 from the line. Also, nine rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal. The Maize Rage needs to invent some sort of Goalie/Sieve chant for Novak involving grit and whatever the opposite of that may be...Blackhawks? /self-deprecating Hawks fan

Douglass--Like JMo, a quiet day from the field, but did just enough to prevent Paul from giving us a legitimate scare. You would think that a senior would have displayed very little real improvement from his first 3 years to his 4th; Douglass has not only done that, but he has shown significant improvement between a month or so ago and now. Solid defense, less facepalm-inducing turnovers and long 3s=very solid plus player.

Smotrycz--After predicting a double digit points performance for Evan in Lincoln, it appears that I jumped the gun by a game. Evan put in a confident 13 points on 3/6 shooting (2/3 from 3, 5/6 from the line). Thirteen off of the bench is probably not a reasonable thing to expect on the reg, but if he can keep this sort of play up then that takes Michigan from an outside shot for a conference title of either variety to a real, legitimate threat to win one. The definitive X-factor, if you will. Amateur sports psychology can often border on the absurd, but if you couldn't tell the difference in his overall demeanor in this game then I don't know what to tell you. Whatever Phil Jackson zen Beilein is using is clearly starting to work.
Vogrich--For a second game in a row, Vogrich does his best Korver impression. Eight points from him in any game is just gravy. Perfect from 3 again (2/2) and a nice backdoor cut for a layup and a drive that led to a crucial foul on Leonard were impressive plays for a guy who seemingly has no game outside of shooting the trey. As usual, he continues to show a level of underrated grit, picking up 2 boards, a steal, and one possession arrow by tying up Meyers Leonard (of all people).
McLimans--Only four minutes. Didn't really do anything except elicit mocking words from Raftery about him not wanting to post up and whatnot. I know that I've been somewhat irrationally hoping for him to get more minutes, but for some reason I think that he's going to hit a big shot at some point before this season is over.

Illinois Preview: The Giant of Illinois

2012-02-10T08:00:00.023-05:00

General Outlook
After dispatching an inept Huskers team, a win at home against the Illini would serve as a solid momentum-creator--if you believe in things like that--to carry Michigan through the somewhat weak back end of the schedule.

The Illini come in at 16-8 (5-6), and to say that they are reeling is putting it lightly. The S.S. Weber is currently taking on water and all aboard are fighting for spots on one of the lifeboats. Unfortunately, the Illini have not done a good job at this, as every time they think they have a chance to get on, some shameless ruffian--PSU, Minnesota, Wisconsin--pushes them aside most boorishly. They have lost 5 of their last 6, the one win coming in the The Adventures of Pluto Nash of basketball games, a 42-41 "win" against the Spartans last week. Otherwise, the Illini have been herpin' and derpin' after getting off to a solid 4-1 start in the conference (a start which included the premier performance of the Big Ten season, Brandon PAWWWLLLLL's MJ impression against the Buckeyes).

The Illini played your standard non-conference schedule, losing their two biggest tests (Mizzou, UNLV) and beating a decent Gonzaga team and a mediocre Maryland squad. However, they have been scuffling in the last month or so, and they really needed to win at Indiana last night. Illinois will be in desperation mode, as losing would force them to finish 4-2 in their last 6 games if they want to finish .500 in the conference. Those last 6 games include tilts against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan, so the Illini will likely call upon all the grit reserves they have in order to win in Ann Arbor to obviate having to do that.

The aforementioned notwithstanding, losing this game would be a pretty huge disappointment but not a killer, as Michigan is in a pretty good spot right now.

Bruce Weber, looking confused/probably about

to give some less than useful advice

The Offense
Knowing that the Illini have lost 5 of 6, you could assume that there have been some defensive issues. The Illini have given up 70+ in their last two outings against Northwestern and IU--74 and 84 respectively--which bodes well for Michigan, as there are some philosophical similarities between those teams' offensive attacks and Michigan's.

The Illini are giving up 62.2 points per game (it went up by almost a whole point after IU dropped 84 on them), which isn't too bad but isn't reflective of their play of late, minus the all-around derpfest that was the MSU game. Although the defense has been had in its last two outings, it has mostly not been the major culprit in Illinois' downfall. In fact, the defense has been pretty solid; it all starts from the inside with sophomore 7-footer Meyers Leonard.

Coming into the Indiana game, the Illini were third best in the conference in blocks and are giving up a solid 46.8% from 2. Leonard is averaging about a pair of blocks a game, but the 7-footer certainly alters his fair share of shots in addition to those blocks. While those who enter the lane should be wary of Leonard's shot-blocking ability-like Dante and Virgil upon entering Hell, abandon all hope ye who enter here--attacking and getting him in foul trouble is a pretty easy way of mitigating his presence. Getting him out of the paint as much as possible via the pick and roll will also be key, although he is certainly athletic enough to keep up with Morgan on the roll.

Michigan will finally have one of these next year (see: McGary, Mitch)

Spearheaded by Leonard's height, the Illini are rebounding 69% of opponents' misses, which puts them at 5th best in the conference, which actually isn't as good as I expected, but, then again, they are 5-6 in Big Ten play. As long as Leonard is on the floor, I doubt Michigan gets too many second chances, but if Michigan can get him in foul trouble then there could be a few opportunities.

Otherwise, the rest of the lineup isn't too physically imposing. Joseph Bertrand, Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson, and Tracy Abrams are 6'5'', 6'4'', 6'3'' and 6'1'' respectively. Another piece of good news: Illinois is pretty turrible at defending the three, which they are allowing at a 36.3% rate, a higher clip than our own maligned 3-point D. The Wildcats and Hoosiers shot a combined 15/32 from 3 against the Illini in their last 2 games, good for 47%. The looks will be there, Michigan will just has to hit them. Easier said than done, as we know.

The Defense
Illinois's offensive attack has been somewhat of a tire fire at times. What I'm about to say is perhaps more insulting than any statistical evidence I will impart to you, but there are moments when this Illinois team reminds me of one of Amaker's Horton-led teams (if those teams were given a 7-footer like Leonard). The Illini turn the ball over with alacrity; in conference play, the Illini have put up a ghastly TO% of 22.2%, which is only better than Nebraska. Illinois, like those Horton teams, seems to depend on those supernova-type performances from Paul that Horton was wont to have from time to time.

Illinois' offense tends to be fairly self-destructive

Even the casual fan knows about Brandon Paul after his 43-point explosion against the Buckeyes; he averages a cool 15 ppg. However, his eFG% is even lower than THJ's; at 48.6%, he is 37th in the conference. After Paul, Leonard and D.J. Richardson are the other two double digit scorers (13.3 and 12.2 ppg respectively), both better in eFG% than Paul, with Leonard checking in in the top 10 of all B1G players. With that said, the good news for Michigan is two-fold.

While Leonard is, like Zeller, a skyscraper of a human being, he is not nearly as polished. He doesn't have the same smoothness about his game that Zeller has, and his points will mostly come from the FT line (only Paul has more FTA on the Illini roster than him) and general gritting around near the basket. He's going to be a first-round pick based simply on his defensive abilities and athletic ability that is rare for a guy of his height, but, still, his offensive game is fairly raw.
Second, the Illini don't seem to shoot the 3 all that well. Even Paul only shoots 34.5% from 3 on the second-most attempts, behind D.J. Richardson's team-leading 138 attempts. Richardson is shooting a team-high (of those with a relevant sample size, that is) 38.4%. Obviously, this means he is the guy to watch from outside. Sam Maniscalco is the third most eager 3-point gunner, but he shoots a pretty awful 26.6%; he can shoot as much as he wants. Overall, though, they don't attempt too many (6 attempts per game).

This is an offensive attack that has looked downright dysfunctional at times (8th in ppg in conference play). They are mediocre from 3, and their inside presence isn't exactly Olajuwon when it comes to making a post move. If Stu plays the type of defense he has been playing, odds are Paul won't have a good enough game to propel the Illini to an upset.

Who/What To Watch

Michigan attacking the paint/drawing fouls on Leonard. If Michigan can manage getting Leonard to pick up 2 early fouls, I have to think this game could be locked up in the first half. If the fouls don't happen, make him come out and defend the pick and roll; the more time he spends outside of the paint the better, from both a rebounding and a shot-blocking perspective.
Stu vs. Brandon Paul. Nothing to say here other than D up and don't let him score 43. It is a little bit worrisome that Paul scored 43 against a team featuring a defensive pest like Craft, but you have to think that was just a once in a lifetime performance.
The generic "make 3s" point goes here. With Leonard patrolling the lane, Michigan will need to convert from outside or else a desperate Illinois team could keep it close throughout.

Meaningless Prediction

Michigan as yet to lose at home and I don't think that record get its first blemish this Sunday. Illinois just does not look good these days, and I have never really been a fan of Weber in general. Leonard presents some pretty obvious matchup problems for us (for any team, really), but Michigan's solid effort against Zeller perhaps provided the interior defense in this game. Michigan has the option of bringing the double with THJ and letting the Illini perimeter guys clank threes, or they can take their chances with an unpolished Leonard in the post. I'm leaning towards the latter, as Leonard is also a surprisingly adept passer for a big man, one of several aspects of his game that NBA scouts are raving about.

Either way, Leonard will get his. In 4 of his last 5 games, he's scored: 17, 21, 17, and 16. However, as long as Stu plays his customarily sturdy defense against a somewhat inefficient Brandon Paul, Illinois shouldn't pose too much of a threat. Offensively, Michigan will need to walk the line between caution and courage in attacking the lane when Leonard is on the floor. But, as usual, it will come down to whether or not Michigan can hit their looks from outside. In the friendly confines of the Crisler Center, Michigan will see enough 3s go in en route to getting that critical 9th conference win. Michigan 68, Illinois 61.

Michigan-Nebraska: Guess I'm Doin' Fine

2012-02-09T08:00:00.028-05:00

Michigan 62, Nebraska 46

Rod Beard tweeted this and I thought it was just about the perfect way to summarize everything about this game:

Everything about this game was redolent of high school basketball; the crippling offensive incompetence, the lopsided score, the peanut gallery fans yelling SHOOT THE BALL as the home team "runs the offense," an elaborate series of passes and movements that eventually ends in some final, awkward self-immolating act.

Nebraska's offensive attack (I know I know, it's Family

Guy...also, in German for some reason)

Watching Nebraska try to do anything really took me back to my high school basketball days. They were really that bad, and the score doesn't even begin to reflect how non-competitive it truly was (the Huskers hit a few meaningless shots at the end--including a buzzer beating 3--to up their total to 46). In any case, if you needed any further reminder as to which sport the conference had in mind when it came time to admit Nebraska, I'll give you a hint: it wasn't basketball.

After the game in November, I have a hard time being too disparaging of the Huskers because all of their fans just seemed so gosh darned nice. So, I will talk about Michigan from here on out. Michigan came out firing from 3 (i.e. Novak and Douglass did), and then spent much of the rest of the half fending off whatever offense-destroying virus had infected them by virtue of being on the same court as the inept Huskers. Michigan ended the first half with only 22 points and shot way too many threes against a Husker team that was decent at defending the 3 but downright turrible Kenny at defending the 2. Overall, though, the Huskers did a good job defensively in the first half. The match-up zone gave Michigan some problems, exacerbated by the fact that Michigan kept taking the outside shot that Nebraska was, to an extent, conceding. After the first three triples to start the game, Michigan scored 13 points in the last 13 minutes of the first half, which would be good if this were football.

Here's where you insert the shortest motivational coaching montage of all time. Beilein tells the guys: "Hey, maybe we should go to the basket?" The team: "Okay." Bacari Alexander then fashioned a basketball hoop out of the corn husks strewn around the locker room floor (CORN NEBRASKA HURRR), dunking on it and thereby destroying it in order to really drive the point home. Beneath the veneer of unsuccessfully stifled giggling, the players understood what they needed to do.

And they did it. Game Blouses. Michigan's eFG% in the second half was an outrageous 97.2% (HT: UMHoops). JMo was converting on layup after layup, and, most encouragingly, THJ also joined in on the high-percentage shot fun. Also, Michigan turned the ball over a mere 4 times, and 2 of those were shot clock violations. That's crazy, and awesome, as Rees-ing it up would've been the only thing that would have given the Huskers a chance to win the game.

Matt Vogrich, channeling Kyle Korver

Quite simply, this was a win Michigan needed to have and they got it in impressive fashion (well, most of the second half was decent, I guess, relatively). Nebraska is truly horrid, but a road win is an impressive thing no matter the opponent. More importantly, there were a few encouraging things going on vis-a-vis certain individual players that give us reasons to be optimistic going forward.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Trey Burke and Those Who Are Not Trey Burke":

Burke--The all-around very solid performance that has become customary from Trey. Twelve points on 4-7 shooting (3-4 from 3), five boards, 5 assists, and only 2 turnovers...just a very efficient performance in a low possessions game.

Hardaway--Okay, so 3-11 from the field and another poor performance from 3 (0-6) looks bad on the surface, but if you watched the game you'd know that he was at least trying to attack. Sure, he took some bad threes in the first half (if this was February 2011 they wouldn't be "bad" shots), but he changed it up in the second half. He was also active defensively, drawing a charge. He also pitched in a trio of assists; again, the common refrain of "he can still be a plus player if he does other things well" goes here. But, you have to think that the perimeter shots will start falling eventually...right?

Novak--The Mayor sank a pair of threes to start the game, pretty much setting the tempo for the rest of the game. Led Michigan with 14 points on 6-9 shooting, in addition to 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and one count of grand larceny (3 steals). Also, a congratulations is in order, as Zack joined the 1,000 point club, making him the 45th Wolverine to do so. Even more impressively, he is only the 28th Wolverine to have 1,000 points and 500 rebounds to his name. Remember what happened when we thought replacing Lee and Merritt might not be a huge deal? Yeah, replacing Zack and Stu is going to be like that but ten times more difficult.

Douglass--Stu continues to quietly be a very good player for us. Stu pitched in 13 points on 4-7 shooting (3-5 from 3), 2 boards, 3 assists, and 2 steals. That's a good performance for Stu even without the torrid shooting...anything more is just delicious, victory-producing gravy.

Morgan--This team is so much more fun to watch when Morgan is being found for easy buckets. Eight points on 4-5 from the field, 6 boards, 2 assists, and a steal make for a strong performance from JMo. You would think that Nebraska would've been more cognizant of their matchups after facing a Princetony team like Northwestern last week, but that was not the case, on the break or in the half court. In any case, JMo: keep on keepin' on.

McLimans--Again, would've been nice to see him get a few more minutes in a blowout such as this one, but whatever. Did have a derpy turnover in garbage time.
Vogrich--Apparently we had Kyle Korver on loan from the Bulls tonight, which is nice but I'd imagine might result in some NCAA complications. Jokes aside, Diet Novak was en fuego from 3, showcasing the 3-point shooting prowess we were expecting from him when he was recruited. Keep doing that, please.
Smotrycz--Naturally, after predicting that Smotrycz would score in the double digits he puts up a goose egg. In fact, he didn't even attempt a field goal in 13 minutes, which is a little strange.

Nebraska Preview: Into That Great Void

2012-02-08T08:00:00.095-05:00

General Outlook
Michigan looks to bounce back from a mugging received in East Lansing* by notching a road victory against the hapless Cornhuskers. Unfortunately, Michigan cannot play anything less than their best or they will come away with a faith-shaking, regular season title chance-killing loss. The most impressive win of Nebraska's season was, as you may know, a defeat of #13 Indiana in Lincoln. I'm sure that Beilein will make sure to mention this more than once and the Mayor of Gritville will be running around the locker room periodically screaming at folks to remind them of the very serious business at hand. Bacari Alexander will almost assuredly manage to incorporate a Lincoln corn maze into an elaborate pre-game motivational ploy.

Michigan will need to live by the college basketball mantra of TISNSTAAFW: There Is No Such Thing As A Free Win.

With that said, Nebraska is a pretty horrible basketball team. They are 11th in the conference, having dropped off a bit after a relatively successful 2010-11 campaign, in which they went 19-13 before deciding to get out of Dodge for the greener, Velveeta-rich pastures of the Big Ten. The Huskers are 11-11 (3-8), with conference wins over PSU, Indiana, and @Iowa. Unless the Huskers go on a tear, they will not even be on the NIT bubble.

Nebraska HC Doc Sadler, somehow didn't parlay that name into a
career
in spaghetti westerns
(Mary Langenfield, US PRESSWIRE)

Going .500 in conference would ostensibly get Michigan in the Big Dance (obviously you would hope that they do more than the bare minimum), and wins against the dregs of the conference--Nebraska today and PSU to end the season--would accomplish just that. This is another one of those "must win because you're playing somebody terrible and can't afford to lose" sort of outings.

*"The Mugging in East Lansing" definitely sounds like it could be a straight-to-DVD thriller featuring Liam Neeson neck chopping every single person in East Lansing as revenge for something something.

The Offense
Statistically, Nebraska isn't as bad on defense as you might have imagined. They are giving up a respectable 64.8 ppg (only 8th best in the conference but 110th nationally), but, as usual, tempo has a major role to play in making the numbers not reflect a harsher reality. Only Michigan and Wisconsin play at a slower pace; the Huskers take care to not be hasty. Although the Huskers were actually pretty good through the first 6 conference games, they have been giving up 76.2 ppg through the last 4.

Sadler is a defense first coach, and there's little doubt that the Huskers will be prepared for Michigan's backdoor cuts and 3-point shooting after taking on Northwestern last week. However, the Huskers don't really don't really seem to do anything exceedingly well. They are a middling to below average steals and blocks team, averaging 6.6 and 3.1 per game, respectively, putting them near the bottom third of the conference in both. Point guard Bo Spencer (an LSU transfer who sat out the 2010-11 season), leads the team in steals (1.4 spg), so Trey et al will still need to be vigilant on the perimeter. Basically, all of this suggests a high-effort team that doesn't really do anything flashy but protects its defense by slowing the game down as much as possible. From what I've seen, they do play some zone, and we should expect to see it if Michigan proves that they can't shoot their way out of it.

Nebraska trots out a starting five of McCray, Ubel, Spencer, Richardson, and Walker, i.e. 4 guards and one big (Ubel). Other than Ubel, who is listed at 6'10'', they have very little in the way of size, as the other guards are 6'6'', 6'4'', 6'2'', and 6'0''. Nebraska's other big, the 6'11 Jorge Brian Diaz, looks to be out for the year, and he did not play in Nebraska's last game (a home loss against Minnesota). He was averaging about 2 blocks per game and 8.6 points, so that is a not insignificant loss. Other than Morgan on Ubel, there won't be any significant size disadvantages. I'd like to see Novak get some time at the 3 with Smotrycz at the four; for some reason I feel like this game could be a funk-breaker for Evan.

Otherwise, Spencer is a senior that should provide a solid challenge for Trey, but is far from unbeatable. This Nebraska team has such little size and depth that this should be one of only a few games in which Michigan will see some offensive rebounds come their way. The Huskers have quite literally rebounded the ball as many times as their opponents have (well, almost--693 to 692 on the season), giving them a tidy but not very good rebounding margin of .0 (Michigan is at .4). They average 9.3 offensive rebounds a game, half a board better than Michigan's turrible 8.8 per. So, these teams are very similar vis-a-vis their relative rebounding prowess (i.e. neither team is good at it).

The Defense
Michigan isn't exactly lighting up on the scoreboard, but the Huskers are averaging an anemic 62.2 ppg (second worst in the conference). The aforementioned Bo Spencer and 6'6'' Toney McCray--who figures to be Stu's matchup--are the only two averaging double-digit points (15.5 and 10.5 ppg, respectively). The rest of the starting--Richardson, Ubel, and Walker--average 7.4, 6.2, 6.7 per game, and Dylan Talley comes off of the bench averaging 9.1 ppg, good for third best on the team.

Bo Spencer, 3-point shooting enthusiast

As expected, the Huskers are not a threat from 3 (32.6% as a team, good for 10th in the conference). Talley and Richardson shoot it respectably well (35% and 39%), but Spencer shoots by far the most 3s on the team and seems to not be very good at it (31% on a whopping 130 attempts, less attempts within the conference than only John Shurna, THJ*, D.J. Richardson, and Ryne Smith).

There's not much to say here other than Michigan simply needs to lock down and play solid defense. Nebraska doesn't shoot the 3 well, produces second chances at a lower rate than we do, and doesn't really have a dangerous post-up guy. Spencer is a solid player but doesn't seem to be very efficient, which is understandable given that this is a team with not all that much pure scoring ability. The only way I see Michigan getting owned here is if Spencer decides to go all Brandon Paul on us and Michigan hands them points via turnovers. Otherwise, Nebraska's probably only scoring anywhere from 55 to 63 or so.

*Sad face goes here.

Who/What To Watch

Burke vs. Spencer on the defensive end.
Smotrycz vs. his own debilitating lack of confidence. Nebraska's lack of size, athleticism, and general what-have-you combined with a gut feeling of mine makes me believe that Smotrycz will have his best game since the non-conference ended.
Nebraska opponents having been shooting the 3 at 33.9%, which is not too far from Michigan's team average of 34.5%. If Michigan can shoot in the vicinity of their average, I have a hard time seeing Michigan dropping this game.

Meaningless Prediction
Michigan's struggles on the road are well-documented. You know they are because I spent a non-zero amount of seconds thinking about the outcome of this game. With that said, Nebraska is not very good. They're not even on Iowa's level (despite beating them), who handed us an ugly road loss not too long ago.

Michigan will bounce back nicely, with Smotrycz pitching in a surprise 13 points. It won't necessarily be pretty given the pace these teams play with (or lack thereof), but I think Michigan gets the job done on the road. Michigan 65, Nebraska 59.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 2/7/2012

2012-02-07T12:07:00.002-05:00

First, A Sad Note: Maybe I missed this, but I haven't really seen any discussion of this around the Michigan corner of the Internet (it's possible I missed it). Junior Hemingway's home was burglarized Friday morning, and among the lost items lost are jerseys and bowl rings from Junior's time at Michigan. It's simply bizarre that somebody is currently running around with things that took a lifetime of hard work for somebody to acquire.

Brett Duke/The Times-Picayune

A month ago, Junior was crying at the podium. Little bits of colored paper fell. It was the perfect ending to a 5-year journey, the type of storybook ending so purely good that it escapes even cynical accusations of melodrama. Last Friday served as a reminder that this is still a world where bad things happen: randomly, inconveniently, senselessly.

I don't want to get into the psychology of theft (there might not even be any "psychology" beyond "this is a thing I can steal and turn into money"), but the most absurd part of the whole thing is that the thief left the Sugar Bowl MVP trophy, which was lying on the coffee table, unobscured and prone.

Less Saddening News: Michigan gained its third commitment of the new recruiting cycle in the form of Detroit Crockett TE Khalid Hill. He is yet to be ranked by any of the three main recruiting services, but, he is coming to us from the same high school that Brandon Graham did, so that's nice.

"How am I supposed to determine how happy or sad I should be without STARS, guys? I mean, as far as I'm concerned he might as well not even be a real person without a star ranking. HOW DO WE EVEN KNOW HE EXISTS?"-People who follow recruiting

So, yes, a tight end. Who knows how good he will be, but at minimum this commitment partially fills a position of need that will actually become important going forward. TOUGHNESS. TREMENDOUS. TIGHT ENDS. This is Ann Arbor, and this is what we (now) do.

Meanwhile, In Iowa: Kirk Ferentz is likely nervously chewing the heck out of some gum somewhere as he sits in his office, hiding under his desk while trying to determine how he will remedy the whole "not having coordinators" situation. Former Michigan assistant Soup Campbell is a name being thrown around for the OC position, but the buzz around the DC spot is more interesting in that one Jim Herrmann is being mentioned. Yes, that Jim Herrmann. Could you imagine a more Kirk Ferentz thing to do than this? Ferentz would covet somebody that was last considered a good thing in 1997. Kirk Ferentz is the Des Moines of football coaches.

I can see it now. The scene: Iowa City, some fall Saturday in 2012. Iowa leads late in the game but has just elected to punt from its opponent's 34. Ferentz furiously chews the same piece of sugarless gum he's been chewing since 1999, the mustachioed Herrmann standing next to him. He rushes 3 time after time, cordially conceding--nay, aggressively allowing--yardage to be gained, points to be scored, and the happiness of all that are present. End scene.

I have a feeling that this is just too perfect to be true; therefore, it won't happen. From a more general, conference-wide perspective, this would be another development on "the Big Ten is slowly reverting to the 1970s order of things" front (i.e. as top-heavy as Dwight Howard). With PSU and Iowa seemingly headed for tough times, Wisconsin's unimpressive recruiting haul despite going to two straight Rose Bowls, and the rest of the conference, save MSU, being generally mediocre...I have a feeling there might a much larger percentage of fairly uninteresting conference games the next few years or so.

Things That Are Surprising: The stodgy Big Ten might, just might, be leading the charge of change (emphasis is Hinton's):

Sources told the Tribune that a Big Ten plan would remove the top four teams from the BCS bowl pool and have semifinal games played on the college campus of the higher seed.That would do away with the facade of "neutral" sites such as New Orleans, Miami and Pasadena, Calif., and ease travel concern for fans.

Of course, these are "words, words, mere words," as some really emo guy once said. The whole "SEC/PAC 12 teams coming to the Midwest in December" thing is particularly appealing. Of course, the SEC contingent will protest this indignity. Whenever this scenario comes up I recall the Miami Hurricanes players bundled up like they were playing on Hoth for the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl against Wisconsin, which was played in...49-degree Orlando. Good times. I generally avoid the comment sections of articles on big sites like Yahoo, but I couldn't help myself here. A couple were essentially equivalent to "PAWWWLLLLLL THEM YANKEES ARE SO DUMB THEY AIN'T GOT THAT DOME TECHNOLOGY LIKE WE DO."

Whether it's 4 teams or 8 or 16, there will always be somebody with a grievance to air. I'm of the opinion that any playoff that allows any more than 8 teams to compete for the title would be excessive. You can't please everybody, but I think everybody can agree that there needs to be something different than what is currently in place. That consensus needs to be reached amongst the People In Charge, so it's nice that Delany of all people is the one saying this. Again, though...words. A little less conversation, a little more action please.

Things That Are Not Surprising: The almighty dollar ruling the day vis-a-vis college football affairs

The move would essentially prohibit schools from scheduling games like last season's LSU-Oregon matchup at Cowboy Stadium in Dallas. Cases such as the upcoming USC-Syracuse game on September 8, 2012 at Met Life Stadium would be permissible because they are the Pac-12 team's away game in a home-and-home series while matchups like the UCLA-Texas game in 2014 would no longer be allowed unless the Longhorns agreed to come to Los Angeles.

Larry Scott is undoubtedly sliding down a water slide made of gold bullion into a pool of hundred dollar bills, and good for him and the PAC 12. However, anything that eliminates the possibility and/or feasibility of new, exciting non-conference matchups is a net negative. I know that Larry Scott has to look out for his conference's coffers, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.

You know, it's times like these that I actually sort of miss the Bowl Alliance days. Teams weren't afraid to go play other teams outside of their respective regions, bowls games were yet untainted by the plague of awkward sponsorships, and the system itself: a) wasn't even a "system" and b) didn't even pretend to provide a definitive and coherent end to a college football season. Unlike the BCS, at least it was an ethos.

More? Jon Merrill "eludes description"...as awesome as last season's turnaround was, this year's has been equally impressive and then some. Michigan gets OL prospect Dan Gibbs as a preferred walk-on; at 6'7'' 315 pounds, "Brobdingnagian" is probably the only adjective ridiculous enough to describe him. The "Do Your Job" slogan has apparently applied to everyone but Head Coach Bill O'Brien for the last month. The least surprising thing ever: John Calipari likes Nick Saban and Alabama football.

Michigan-Michigan State: All Or None

2012-02-06T08:00:00.060-05:00

Michigan 54, Michigan State 64

Michigan, not unlike Jean Ralphio, is reminded
often of its crippling limitations

I find myself having one of two fairly simplistic responses to Michigan basketball games this season, a pair of responses that meld together to form a sort of yin and yang of Michigan basketball as we currently know it. The first, which occurs after Michigan wins, is some combination of WOOO and confident nod at the program's general direction, and, additionally, that there is even a direction at all to begin with. You could not say that about Michigan basketball about the gloomy, dilapidated Gothic castle that was the Ellerbe/Amaker years, a monolithic block of generally unguided strivings. On a similarly basic level, each win is an additional affirmation of the fact that progress is being made, that the team is showing signs of trending upward, and that John Beilein could probably coach a team of lawn gnomes to a respectable record. This hypothetical team would definitely beat Towson. We're in good hands.

On the other hand, when Michigan loses, well, they lose. They really, really lose. Each loss is like an autopsy: ah, so that was what killed him...we can know that because we've seen it before. In order to preempt the notion that I'm being overly critical: a) I'm not and b) I couldn't be happier with the way things are going on a macroscopic level c) John Beilein is an excellent coach/person to have as the leader, philosophically and ethically, of your program and d) that there are severe limitations hampering this team from making any substantial leaps forward (i.e. talent). Okay, enough with the letters.

The second response has been not quite resignation; rather, reasoned acceptance is the best way to put it. It is difficult enough to win on the road, but with the current makeup of this team, we will lose to teams like Michigan State and Ohio and even some lesser teams--like Arkansas--that are able to surgically pinpoint our major weaknesses via their own specific approach to the game of basketball. I realize that is a little bit of an unfair (and crude) point to make, as teams like MSU and Ohio are very good teams; most teams lose to them. That is why they are ranked so highly. With that said, after these sorts of games have ended, I've been fairly at ease. As fun as this season has been, we are not even close to being on the same level as these sorts of opponents. Perhaps that will change next year when talented reinforcements will bring skills sets that Ann Arbor hasn't seen in some time. I guess this is all a roundabout way of saying that the way the Spartans beat us was not at all surprising, and that I guess this isn't so negative after all since I'm not all that upset. If you can't tell, sometimes I devote many more words to a simple concept than are probably necessary; it's a personal flaw of mine.

Speaking of fundamental flaws...zooming down to a micro level re: the game itself, this was another classic cut and dry mapping of the Michigan basketball genome, its flaws laid bare and crystallized for easy incorporation into the overarching "story" of the season. Each of these losses provides a lucid snapshot of what this team constitutionally is, right now, in a manner that has provided and will continue to provide mostly unsurprising results (which is really, I suppose, why I'm not at all upset about this outcome for any reason other than the fact that we lost to a rival). In essence:

Michigan State played ferocious defense that harkens back to the stonewalling Michigan was subjected to on the gridiron. It's easy to forget this in this sea of verbiage, but MSU played a pretty enormous role in us playing so poorly.
When Michigan was able to get a decent look or two, they almost always missed. As much as I despise the generic and mostly useless compendium of sports cliches, guys like Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway Jr. simply have no confidence. It is plainly obvious; Michigan cannot go far without at least one of these two using this moment in time as an inflection point to springboard their seasons back up to previously attained heights. On a team with any depth whatsoever, maybe you give THJ the Ben Gordon treatment (circa his time as a Bull) and bring him off the bench just to mix it up. Obviously, we cannot afford to do that.
Michigan has nobody that can handle the ball with confidence other than Burke. We've known this all season, but these types of losses just turn it up to 11 in this respect. The definitive moment that you could point to as anecdotal evidence: Trey left the game at one point and Michigan almost immediately turned the ball over. It seemed as if Trey had literally just sat down before Beilein frustratedly turned to the bench to point at Trey to reinsert him into the game. At times, the whole situation sort of reminds me of the typical high school basketball roster, afforded only one player that can handle the ball with any efficacy and/or ability to not freak out.
We got out-rebounded, as a team, by one player. I don't have the energy or desire to dig up the source of this fact, but I read somewhere on Twitter that this is only the third or 4th time this has happened in the Big Ten since the mid 90s.
Speaking of the aforementioned one player, approximately 99% of my confidence going into this game was derived from the fact that Green would be out of commission or significantly hampered. Obviously, this was wrong. I'm not sure if the injury actually got that much better, if it wasn't as serious as it initially appeared, or if Draymond Green is simply the most ingeniously diabolical troll of all time. In any case, he fooled me. "Oh man my knee it hurts HAHA JUST KIDDING GUYS BOOM OUTREBOUNDED."
Given that nobody really played well (and that I would rather forget about this game), player bullets probably won't be necessary. Nobody played well, it wasn't fun, and let's just move on. So it goes. There are many games left to win.

Michigan State Preview: For Those About To Rock

2012-02-03T08:00:00.072-05:00

The end of this little 5-game adventure draws

near...time to throw the specter of a bygone era of domination in the fire

General Outlook
The first meeting between these two teams only a little less than three weeks ago was about as exciting as you could ask for. Like Wednesday's Indiana game, Michigan jumped out to an early lead, entering the half with a 7-point cushion. The Spartans eventually came back, even taking a 4-point lead with about 4 minutes to go. When the dust settled, the clock read zeroes and Michigan had 1 more point than the Spartans, a fragile victory that almost collapsed like a Jenga tower in the last moments when Draymond Green missed the shot that has been made against Michigan with ruthless regularity in recent years.

Since then, the Spartans demolished Purdue and Minnesota at Breslin by 25 and 16 points, respectively. However, the Spartans took a road loss in Champaign, a 42-41 affair that could be deemed "grotesque" at worst and maybe "incompetent" at best. When various media personalities rail against the stereotypical drudgery of Big Ten basketball, this is the type of game they have in mind. The Spartans shot a horrific 24% from the field (Appling-1/11, Green-1/6), and Green and Appling both turned it over five times each. Needless to say, it was not the Spartans' finest hour.

Of course, we cannot expect the Spartans to look as Yakety Saxy against us while playing at Breslin. However, Green's knee injury is a major question mark. If I had venture a guess, I'm sure he will play (or at least try to)...but he likely won't be too effective given how debilitated he looked after the injury. I guess there's time between now and Sunday for modern medicine to do its thing (i.e. ALL THE ICE AND REST), but a Draymond-less State team is a very, very beatable one. A win here would essentially kick the Spartans down into the second tier of the standings for the time being.

The Offense
We've already seen the Spartans once, so most of the next two sections won't be anything new but...in case you didn't know, the Spartans are pretty good defensively. They boast the 3rd stingiest Big Ten defense (59.4 ppg), and they have the size that is Michigan's kryptonite. They average about 5 blocks a game, so, unlike Ohio and IU, the tall trees will actually block your shot.

The Spartans also defend the 3 very well (holding opponents to 29.2%, second only to the Wisconsin Grind It Outs), as Michigan's 6/21 effort from 3 at Crisler showed. However, Michigan did have immense success from 2, going 17/24 (70%). Trey's 5/5 from 2 is particularly impressive, as he quite literally did not give Appling an opportunity to catch his breath. There's no doubt that Michigan will need to have another solid performance from 2.

Michigan shot very poorly from 3 whereas the Spartans shot the lights out (46.7%), so I have to think that the percentages were move toward the mean. Of course, calls will be hard to come by at Breslin, so Michigan will need to finish around the basket and on short-medium range looks to put up enough points to win. That means, namely: Burke, THJ, and especially Morgan. GO UP STRONG.

The Defense
Naturally, much of the defensive outlook hinges upon the functionality of Draymond Green's left knee. Again, I think he will try to go, but I just don't see how he could be effective enough to play meaningful minutes. If he plays, he'll likely be limited offensively and an outright liability defensively. In any case, the major story--other than Draymond's knee--is whether or not Michigan can: a) not get killed on the glass again and b) whether or not Michigan can perhaps not get threes shot into their eyes over and over again. Even with Green's uncertain status, State going 47% from three would be nearly impossible to overcome, especially since the Spartans will be playing at home, making their 4th best in the conference FT rate (38.2) truly relevant.

A hobbled Green means more minutes for the still brobdingnagian Derrick Nix, which isn't really as good of thing as you might think; he was actually MSU's leading scorer at Crisler, putting a solid 13-point effort on the board on 6/9 from the field. Nix is obviously nowhere near as skilled as Sullinger, but, once again, JMo will be giving up quite a few pounds.

Oh, he mad.

On the road, playing in yet another tough environment, it will come down to the matchup of the 1s. For the most part, Trey had his way with Appling the first time around. At the same time, Appling did beat Burke a few times off the dribble himself (that is, while he was still able to move around and such). Trey will get beat a few times, as Appling is somewhat of a speed demon. More importantly, Trey's ability to slow down the pace of the game and keep it from becoming the proverbial track meet will play to our favor. Beilein has noted that Michigan will often not even try to attack the offensive glass, instead favoring the ability to get back on defense...this game should be a demonstration of that philosophy on steroids (or whatever it is that ideas use to performance enhance).

Who/What To Watch

Appling vs. Burke. Can Burke make Appling look like TomVH at the end of a Barwis workout again? Let's hope so. At the same time, Trey will need to walk a fine line of assertion and caution. Remember: he's a freshman! I wouldn't be surprised to see State rotate a bigger guard on Trey to disrupt the pick and roll like other teams have done.
Can Zack Novak eviscerate the Brahdom of Sparta's hopes and dreams once again a la last year's 6/8 from 3 performance? Well, that's unlikely. A more reasonable goal is to get the 3-point shooting up near the team average--at least--and, you know, not let State go off. Trice and Thornton both beat us from 3, and they are not coincidentally their most effective 3-point shooters (Trice--44%, Thornton--41%). They do come off the bench, however, so Michigan will need to make sure they have their ducks in a row once the substitutions start happening.
The Spartans are one of the best in the country in rebounding margin for a reason...Michigan will get out-rebounded, period. With Green hobbled and the Spartans probably not likely to shoot 47% from 3 again (I hope?), Michigan will need to limit the offensive rebounds as much as possible. JMo, Smotrycz, and THJ will need to come up big here. The Spartans rebounded 35% of their misses last time...cut that down into the 20s and we're sittin' pretty.

Meaningless Prediction

As much as I'd like to see us play (and beat) the Spartans at full strength, it appears highly unlikely that we will get the chance. As enamored as Green often gets with the concept of playing the role of a huge guard, he is easily the heart and soul of that team. However, the negatives are still plentiful. The Spartans are playing at home (might as well flip the first meeting's FTA figures), have a significant size and rebounding advantage that plays to a major weakness, and they shoot the three well enough to give Michigan's 10th best in the conference 3-point defense troubles. HOWEVER... /run homertalk.exe

...I think Michigan stands a very good shot at pulling off a 4th win in a row against the Spartans. Normalize the 3-point percentages for both teams and assume that Green will either not play much/not be very effective when he does, and I'm liable to look at point guard play as the next determining factor. I think Burke wins that matchup again and a hard-working Morgan will run the floor past the ponderous Nix for enough easy buckets to give Michigan the win. Michigan 59, Michigan State 56.

Michigan-Indiana: Especially In Michigan

2012-02-02T08:00:00.076-05:00

Michigan 68, Indiana 56

Tom Crean, unhappy with the state of affairs

(yes, wrong game I know...it's a pretty standard Crean face)

In Bacari Alexander's pre-game motivational tactic, he dubbed it "hammer time."* Early on in the game, it was exactly that. Michigan came into this one needing to continue to hold serve at home; with Denard Robinson in attendance, the outcome was never in doubt, but for the sake of keeping appearances, the game was played anyway. It was essentially the basketball version of the 2006 WVU-UGA Sugar Bowl, with Michigan jumping out to an early lead and then spending the rest of the game just kind of holding on. Michigan ambushed the Hoosiers, jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the type of early success that Lloyd Carr was wont to sit on for the rest of a game. Unfortunately, this is basketball, and you can't really do that (Lloyd would've been the worst basketball coach ever). Trey dropping 10 quick points in the early going was a good sign, and Michigan found themselves up 27-8. I thought that there was a possibility that this game could turn into a mini-blowout (i.e. the Wisconsin game) but I had a hard time convincing myself of it given IU's 3-point shooting and Zeller vs. our front court.

As the first half progressed, Michigan's torrid shooting pace tailed off. The 3s stopped falling and Trey didn't record a point for the rest of the first half after the early burst. On the back of Jordan Hulls, the Hoosiers battled their way back, cutting the lead to a manageable 11-point deficit by the half. The BTN gave us an inside look to Michigan's coaches meeting, and Beilein made sure to let the players know that they should understand that the 11-point lead was pretty good, and that they shouldn't look at it as a disappointment after being up by as much as 19. It was a pretty simple point, but with a still significant amount of youth on the team, it was one that had to be made.

IU continued to harass Burke by throwing Oladipo and even the much bigger Watford on him, which extended his scoring drought and allowed the Hoosiers to sneak back in, as Hulls seemed to be incapable of missing. The Hoosiers cut the lead down to 4 with about 7 minutes ago, and what was once a seemingly insurmountable early deficit had been destroyed like it was a late-game prevent defense. The Hoosiers cut the deficit to 2, right before the two biggest shots of the game were hit by THJ and Stu. Tim had another tough day from 3, but he calmly hit his second trey to make it 55-50. After Elston missed the front end of a 1-and-1, Morgan pulled down an offensive rebound that was, in my mind, the biggest play of the game. The third biggest had to be the Stu 3 that followed JMo's board, but an underrated aspect of that play is the fact that THJ could have taken the 3 himself but dished it to Stu instead, who had a better shot. It's a play that probably won't be remembered, but if THJ takes it and misses then it's still a two possession game. Who knows what happens after that.

There's a lot of good to take from this game (other than it being a good home victory against a ranked team):

Watford and Zeller combined for 43 points in Bloomington; they only managed 19 between them last night. Hulls had 18 but he made some pretty tough shots to get there. You can live with that.
Offensively, Michigan got to 68 via some pretty solid scoring across the board from the starting 5 (18, 13, 13, 9, and 8), and that's with: a) THJ having a rough shooting night yet again and b) the offense going into hibernation mode for about 10 minutes and Burke not scoring for about 30 minutes of play.
Five turnovers compared to IU's 14=WIN. At the half, Michigan had 11 points off of turnovers, which I figured would have to happen for Michigan to stem the tide of IU's 3-point shooting (which ended up basically only coming from Hulls anyway).
Shooting 41% from 3 like they did in this one will give Michigan a chance to win every game left on the schedule.
Most importantly, Michigan was able to weather the storm of IU's comeback; they never trailed at any point.

Now, onward to ~~Mordor~~ the Jack Breslin Student Events Center.

*Side note, but I'd really love to know where Coach Alexander is getting all these ridiculous ideas from. The tape thing, to the "step up" thing, now this...there's no doubt that Bacari's motivational tactics ensure that Michigan's players are infinitely more CONSCIOUS than their opponents.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Trey Burke and Those Who Are Not Trey Burke":

Burke--Despite limiting his scoring to essentially the first and last 5 minutes of the game, another good performance from Trey. A very efficient day, going 5/9 (2/2 from 3) for 18 points, while also chipping in 5 boards, 4 assists (to 2 turnovers), a steal, and one of his incredibly surprising but not really anymore" blocks. He struggled to generate much of anything when Watford or Oladipo were on him, and this is where you write something about how Morris's size is missed at the 1. Michigan has run some pick and roll with THJ in the past, so maybe that becomes a bigger part of the offense as teams realize that putting a bigger guy on Burke is the way to shut him down (and by extension, Michigan's offense).

Hardaway--His stat line says 4/14 from the field (2/8 from 3), but I have by and large positive feelings about THJ's performance. As far as I can remember, only one of those 3s was a truly "bad" one...the rest just didn't go in. Everyone, including me, wants him to attack more, but the shots he took were there. As poor as THJ has been from outside, this last month or so of the season would be the perfect time to get it going. He still some defensive issues here and there--some of them seemingly effort/concentration related--but he did take a nice charge on Zeller.

Novak--A very nice bounce back performance after an uncharacteristically poor performance in Columbus. Thirteen points on 3/5 shooting (all from 3) plus 5 boards, 2 assists, and a steal. I hope he's ready to bring the same kind of game to EL that he did last year.

Douglass--The type of solid performance that we need from him. No adventures around the baseline this time around=zero turnovers. Good good. Only 1/4 from 3, but the 1 was the big three off of the assist from THJ that basically put the game away. The early layup is yet another reminder that he's surprisingly sneaky when it comes to getting to the basket.

Morgan--Another player who had a solid day. He didn't quite match his numbers from the first game but 8 points on 3/5 shooting is not bad. He also didn't seem to be afraid of Zeller despite giving up a serious height advantage. An overall admirable performance; when JMo is playing well, he is secretly one of my favorite big men in Michigan history to watch.

Smotrycz--Not an enormous impact, but he did shoot 2/3. This is an entirely impressionistic observation, but he seemed a little more comfortable shooting the ball in his few opportunities.
Vogrich--One of the slightly disappointing/under the radar aspects of the season is that Vogrich has not been able to really put up very many shots at all. Okay, yes, he is shooting 23% from 3, but it's pretty difficult to get it going when you're only getting 1 or 2 looks a game. I get that he's a player with some limitations and that it's sort of late in the season to be adding things, but it would be nice to see some plays drawn up to get him free a few times a game a la Chicago Bull Kyle Korver.
McLimans--I still wonder why McLimans gets so few minutes (4 in this one), but who knows. The 3 he made was about as perfect as it gets, and with Beilein's affinity for the Pittsnoggley types, I have to wonder why Big Bird doesn't get a little more time on the court.

Indiana Preview: At An Impasse

2012-02-01T08:00:00.042-05:00

General Outlook
After a largely expected outcome in Columbus, the Wolverines look to return to their winning ways at Crisler against the Hoosiers. Fortunately, the Wolverines have bounced back from each of their six losses thus far this season with a win. Michigan sits at 16-6 (6-3) while Indiana comes in looking up at Michigan in the standing, having gone 17-5 (5-5) so far.

The Hoosiers ran through the non-conference schedule en route to a 12-0, with notable wins against UK in one of the best games of the season (if not the best) and a win against Notre Dame that is looking better and better as the season progresses. Things have been a little tougher in conference play, as the Hoosiers have notched losses against: @MSU, Minnesota, @OSU, @Nebraska, and @Wisconsin. Although Minnesota is proving itself to be a tougher team than expected in spite of the loss of Mbakwe, that was a bad loss for the Hoosiers, as was the loss in Lincoln (which, FYI, is further reason not to take any team for granted while playing on the road). With that said, the Hoosiers are coming off of a thrashing of the pesky Hawkeyes, dropping 103 on them this past Sunday.

This is a game that Michigan needs to have if it wants to have a little leeway down the stretch. The first meeting in Bloomington was a tough 2-point loss that Michigan could have had, but it is difficult to win when your two best players combine for 11/34 from the field.

The Offense
As the last game showed (in addition to most other Indiana games thus far this Big Ten season), Michigan will be able to score against these Hoosiers, who are giving up 73 ppg in Big Ten play. That's not very good. Including the non-conference schedule, only Northwestern and Iowa are worse. Most importantly, Michigan was able to score 71 on them in Bloomington despite horrid shooting performances from Trey and THJ (although Michigan did go 41.7% from 3).

Zeller is the only significant shot-blocking threat Indiana has (1.5 bpg), but even his numbers don't place him in the top 100 nationally. With that said, Morgan is prone to bouts of Carlos Boozeritis, so it's not difficult to imagine Zeller having a bigger shot-blocking presence than usual in this one. Otherwise, Michigan's guards should have no fear when attacking the basket (THJ, this means you). Rebounding-wise, IU comes in at 91st in the country in rebounding margin (+3.1), which is okay. Michigan held its own on the boards in Bloomington, with both teams pulling down 28 and Michigan actually having a slight edge in offensive rebounds.

Michigan should have pretty consistent success on offense. Zeller is an Ent of a basketball player but isn't cleaning up everything in sight. It seems that IU has upped their 3-point defense, however; they currently sit at 5th best in the conference in that regard (32.7%).

Lastly, Victor Oladipo is tied for 4th in the conference in steals (1.7 spg), and he would figure to be matched up on Burke. Oladipo is not quite Craft as far as the Sean Avery pesk factor goes, but he is without a doubt Indiana's defensive stopper. Trey has had some trouble shaking good defenders in the past (Evans, Jackson, Craft)--not that he's getting much help--so he will once again need to bring his best game. No rest for the weary, as they say. Trey did turn it over 4 times in Bloomington, but I'd imagine that playing at home will do wonders for his confidence. Again, HE IS A FRESHMAN. Things like "confidence" are not just hackneyed sports talk gibberish when true freshmen are involved, even one as seemingly mature as Burke.

The Defense

Zeller taking the ball to the hoop, not being hasty

This is where things get dicey. Is this reminding you of the 2009 and 2010 Indiana games under RR, because, yes, that's what it reminds me of. Michigan will have its work cut out for it from inside out. As mentioned, Cody Zeller is a 6'11'' Ent playing basketball. This is by far Michigan's biggest matchup disadvantage, obviously. Indiana has four players averaging double digit points (Zeller, Watford, Hulls, Oladipo), and Will Sheehey and Verdell Jones chip in a respectable 9.5 and 8.2 ppg, respectively. This is a team with a lot of options on offense. They can go off the dribble, they can hit the three, and they can also throw in down low to Zeller. Most coaches in America would love to be able to do one of those things really well, let alone all three of them.

Zeller will get his; that's just an inevitability. However, Michigan let Watford score 25 on them again. Zack, it's time to purify yourself in the waters of Lake GRITetonka. Other matchups of note: Stu v. Hulls and THJ v. Verdell Jones. Verdell has gotten quite a bit of flak this year--from Indiana fans and neutral observers alike--and some of it has been deserved, some of it undeserved (as is usually the case). Jones matched Trey's 4 turnovers the first time around, but he's seemed to turn the corner a bit, having only turned it over a combined 5 times in IU's last 3 games against PSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa. IU does have four players in the conference's top 20 of TOPG (Jones, Watford, Hulls, and Oladipo), so this is a team that will turn it over. Michigan will need to turn some of these mistakes directly into points to mitigate the two glaring mismatches on the defensive end (Novak-Watford and Morgan-Zeller).

Of course, no defensive section could end without discussing Michigan's often turrible 3-point defense. Unfortunately, IU can shoot the lights out. They are second in the nation in 3-point percentage, shooting a ridiculous 43.8% as a team. Hulls and Watford are the two starters two worry about, but Sheehey, Roth, and Elston can all shoot it as well. I'm sure Coach Beilein regularly visits Indiana's athletics website at 3 a.m. in order to stare longingly at the 3-point percentage column of IU's player stats page.

Unlike the Ohio game, zone defense isn't really an option for this one I don't think. Michigan will once again need to get a little lucky, but good on-the-ball defense and effective doubling of Zeller will go a long way toward limiting IU's wide open looks.

Pros:

IU has a tendency to go into Rex Grossman gunslinger mode from time to time; Michigan should be able to turn some turnovers into points.
The Hoosiers have an okay rebounding margin but they don't really offensive rebound exceptionally well (10.9 per game, 7th best in the conference).

Cons:

Zeller is really tall and will probably score 20 without trying.
Shaky 3-point defense+opponent that shoots 44% as a team=OH MY GOODNESS IT'S LIKE THE BASKETBALL EQUIVALENT OF BEN CHAPPELL ALL OVER AGAIN.
Novak on Watford is...not ideal. But, then again, when has Novak's deployment on defense ever been ideal?

Who/What To Watch

Rotation and rebounding off of the double on Zeller. If THJ can bring an effective double and the other 3 defenders rotate appropriately (and rebound), Michigan will be probably be able to disrupt just enough possessions to give Michigan a close win.
Again, you could say this every game, but Morgan on the pick and roll will be key. JMo had an efficient 12-point game on 5/6 shooting in Bloomington...Michigan will need that to happen again.
Novak and Stu from 3...insert "they're from Indiana and they're playing Indiana so it's something something" storyline here. Given how Trey and THJ have shot the ball, Michigan needs Stu and Zack to bounce back from their underwhelming perfomances in Columbus.

Meaningless Prediction

Despite nearly every meaningful matchup seemingly favoring IU, Michigan only lost by 2 in Bloomington with both Trey and THJ shooing poorly. This game will certainly buck the mold of the stereotypical conference game, as I expect both teams will reach the upper 60s in points (or maybe even the 70s!). This is really a game that could go either way. Despite the mismatches, this is college basketball and Michigan is playing at home. Michigan's offensive strategy takes advantage of home cookin' (re: FTA) less than most teams, but they definitely will get some calls that they didn't get in B-town.

Indiana has looked incredibly mortal throughout conference play; if the Cornhuskers can beat them at home then I have faith that we can too. Watford and Zeller will get their points, but if Stu can keep Hulls in check and Michigan can D up on secondary 3-point threats like Roth, Sheehey, and Elston, Michigan stands a very good chance of getting a much needed home win. Michigan 72, Indiana 68.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 1/31/2012

2012-01-31T09:00:00.008-05:00

Guess which one Michigan fans are right now? (HT: Toothpaste for Dinner)

Recruiting is still stupid...news at 11: So, last week I briefly laid out the reasons why I think paying inordinate amounts of attention to the dizzying highs and terrifying lows of recruiting is: a) stupid and b) why grown men whose emotional state depends on recruiting success should be treated with suspicion. Of course, this past weekend's happenings only serve to underscore that fact.

Psst. Hey, come here. Yes, you, Mr. EVERYTHING IS TERRIBLE Guy. It's going to be okay. We will have a top 10 class, filled with great players and, by all accounts, good dudes. "But it could've been top 5!" Stop it. If you are shocked that Michigan isn't getting every single recruit that you've ever heard of in passing, or that Urban Meyer is recruiting well, then you are not very smart. Click on any of the weekend recruiting threads on MGoBlog and subject yourself to the apocalyptic wailings of folks proclaiming the end of Michigan because we didn't get somebody who most probably hadn't even heard before this past week (i.e. Kozan)...it's a bit much. I mean, I was really taken aback, and that's saying something given some of the recruiting misses--and the resulting Internet meltdowns--over the years.

As far as I'm concerned, both Michigan and Ohio are bringing in very good classes. Regardless of what the recruiting services will try to tell you, measuring the respective worth of two classes on a micro level is about as impossible as picking who the two "best" teams in college football are, as the BCS aims to do. Also, when you really think about it, acting disappointed and reacting in the way that many have reacted is sort of a slap in the face to the tremendous kids that Hoke has already gotten to commit.

Luckily, the hysteria will soon be coming to an end with NSD falling on Wednesday. Just know that if you are measuring the success of Michigan's 2012 recruiting efforts vis-a-vis Ohio/Urban Meyer/a perceived level of Ohio malfeasance gone inadequately punished, you will be disappointed...and it will be your own fault.

Big Dance Projectin': Various hoops folks are coming out with their early bracket predictions, and Michigan seems to be in good position according to guys like Palm and Lunardi. Obviously these don't mean anything given that they're only based on what has happened thus far but it is interesting to see that we're getting some respect. I have a hard time believing that Michigan will actually be a 4 or a 5 when push comes to shove, but we'll see. Again, Wednesday will go a long way toward determining what Michigan will do the rest of the way.

Bowl Games Coming To Your (College) CITAYYY: In the continuing effort to justify and/or validate the existence of bowls like the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, one AD suggests moving "secondary" bowls (a word that, in and of itself, already indicates a level of unworthiness) to campus locations instead of farflung/undesirable places like, say, Shreveport.

Also, the AD proposed that all teams that qualified for a bowl would receive the same bowl “loot” – i.e. bowl gifts – paid out of a central pool of funds from the BCS bowls or another source so that each student-athlete was treated the same.

THAT SOUNDS LIKE SOME KINDA SOCIALISM TO ME PAWWLLLLLL. But seriously, that's not going to happen, wishful thinking guy. Anything to slowly eliminate the existence of guys whose sole purpose is to shadily siphon money from minor bowl games while wearing a blazer and doing literally nothing, I guess. There would be the issue of who gets to play at home, I suppose, but compared to the current setup it can't really get much worse or more nonsensical. With that said, as stupid and shamtastic as the current system is, I am a fan of more football as opposed to less (as you should be), so upping the threshold for bowl eligibility to 7 wins is a net negative. I would like the option of being able to watch two 6-6 teams play a game of negligible stakes, thank you very much.

Maxwell Club GETS IT: Brady Hoke won this award and that's cool, but I only link to this to point out Maxwell Club executive director Mark Wolpert's tremendous diction:

"Coach Hoke has engineered a tremendous turnaround in the Michigan football program in just one year and it was obvious that his team improved each week," said Maxwell Club executive director Mark Wolpert in a release. "

Honorary MICHIGAN MAN status bestowed upon your person, Mr. Wolpert. Side effects may include: irritability, tendency to overreact in response to minor events, a desire to sit when others are in an emotionally excited state, and Bob Seger.

Scouting Indiana: BHGP painfully relives Sunday's game in Bloomington. The Hoosiers dropped 103 on the Hawkeyes, which is more than the Los Angeles Lakers can say that they've scored on most teams thus far this season. Zeller went 11/12 en route to scoring 26 points, which is pretty ridiculous. BHGP cite's the inability to adequately defend the pick and roll as one of many reasons for Iowa's Gerg-ian defensive performance. These defensive concerns will remain valid when the Hoosiers come to Crisler. Indiana definitely won't score 100+ on Michigan in Ann Arbor, but the matchups are far from favorable. Michigan will not be able to key on Zeller like they did against Sullinger

Michigan's perimeter defenders (Burke, Stu, THJ, etc.) cannot allow themselves to get split on the pick and roll with regularity or Michigan will have open 3s and dunks rained down on them something fierce. Likewise, Morgan will be in the unenviable position of having to hedge and make it back down low to defend against the Ent playing basketball that is Cody Zeller. Good luck!

More? Trey comes in at #3 on a freshman of the year watch list behind the Kentucky guys. Brian Phillips on Nadal-Djokovic; as usual, he is definitely worth the read, particularly in light of the excellence of that final match. So, this is a thing. Justin Turner lands at Hawaii.

Michigan-Ohio: The Song Remains The Same

2012-01-30T07:00:00.009-05:00

Michigan 49, Ohio 64

Michigan's defensive gameplan (HT: Parks and Meth)

Well, that pretty much went exactly as expected. It would be nice if the program was at a point where we could beat teams without having essentially every single thing in a game go our way, but we are not there yet. Next year's infusion of talent might be the beginning of the entertainment of those sorts of expectations, but for now we're still the same team, fundamentally, that we were last year. We are a team with very little athleticism, play-making ability (outside of Burke and occasionally THJ), size, and depth, not to mention that our supposed shooters are often about as accurate as Joe Bauserman. Of course, it's not all bad. We have won a few games so far doing other things well, but putting the Buckeyes and Wolverines on the same floor at this point is a reminder of how far we have to go.

I said it would be a "key on the big guy and hope the perimeter guys miss" type of game, and it was. Actually, the gameplan pretty much worked...well, the first shot defense did. No game plan can account for an opponent simply being able to go up and over defenders en route to offensive board after board. Lenzelle Smith in particular had a big game, grabbing 12 rebounds--8 of them of the offensive variety--taking advantage of the extra attention given to Sullinger. Michigan obviously needed to rotate better to account for this, but there's a reason why having to double somebody a majority of the time is not exactly ideal. However, Michigan held the Buckeyes well under their season average. Sullinger had a relatively unimpressive outing (13 points, 5 rebounds) by his standards, and Michigan wasn't ultimately beaten from the outside, as the Buckeyes were ice cold from 3 (3/15). Michigan got out-rebounded 37-22; this, paired with 4 FTA to Ohio's 18, makes it very difficult to win a game. Michigan did well to hold the big 3 of Sullinger, Thomas and Buford to 13, 12, and 12 points respectively, but Lenzelle Smith scoring 17 was essentially the death knell for Michigan's chances.

All things considered, Michigan's defensive gameplan generally worked out alright minus the things that careful planning and risk-reward analyses can't account for, such as a glaring general athleticism gap. You would think that holding Ohio to 64 would have given the Wolverines a chance, but Michigan put up 49, a season low (58 @UVA being the previous low). Michigan will just have to ride this thing out before the cavalry known as the recruiting class of 2012 rides in, but the personnel we've got is just not conducive to beating beating elite teams, let alone elite teams on the road. It's ridiculous how much this team leans on Trey to handle the ball; I truly feel bad for him. The shots aren't falling as much as he'd like (although he was actually not bad this game when he wasn't busy getting hounded by Craft), but it's pretty clear that playing ALL THE MINUTES isn't exactly helping in that respect.

There's not too much more to say. Michigan faced a much better team on the road, got dominated on the boards and from the free throw line, and kept it reasonably close for a decent portion of the game. This is more than a lot of visitors to VCA this season can say; both Duke and Indiana lost by a greater margin than Michigan. People don't win there that often for a reason. Also, as anemic and flailingly ineffective as Michigan's offense was/often is, you have to tip your hat to the Buckeye defensive pressure. Craft belongs to the prestigious "white guy that everybody hates club", along with Chris Kramer, JJ Redick, and club president Zack Novak, but people dislike him for a reason. He's pretty good, as Trey's five turnovers would indicate.

On the bright side, the next time we see the Buckeyes it'll be at the friendly confines of the Crisler Center. Despite people like Jeff Goodman complaining about fans complaining about officiating in college basketball, complaints are legitimate, as they have been since time immemorial. Just because "this is the way things are" doesn't mean people don't have legitimate gripes. With that said, Michigan will (hopefully) have the zebras on their side the next time around. Assuming that Michigan doesn't shoot like they have their eyes closed and don't get killed on the glass, that is a winnable game. With that said, as much as it hurts to lose to the Buckeyes, this game didn't really changed the trajectory of Michigan's hopes and expectations for this season. However, Wednesday's game against the Hoosiers looms large.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Uh, Did Anybody Play Well?":

Burke--Remember when Michigan ran Chris Perry 51 times against MSU in 2003? Trey Burke's usage is the basketball equivalent of that, only instead of it happening one time it's happening every single game. He actually had a pretty solid day from the field (13 points, 5/11 overall, 3/6 from 3) despite basically playing the entire game yet again. He had five turnovers but, again, Craft is pretty good. In any case, facing guys like Jackson and Craft is good practice for Burke as he continues to develop as a player. Remember, he's just a freshman.

Hardaway--A good stat line at least, leading Michigan with 15 points (on 5/12 shooting overall, 2/7 from 3). His play is just so markedly less confident, and when he makes mistakes it always seems like he's stuck between two points of action. To attack or not to attack...that is the question. He kind of reminds me of the NBA players in Space Jam who have had their powers taken from them: "We're fine. It's some psychosomatic deal, or something to do with the moon and the alignment of the planets."

Novak--Buckeye fans want you to know that he sucks. By the way, did you know that they think he sucks? You may not have heard. In all seriousness, not a good day at all. Scoreless on 0/4 shooting (only 1 attempted 3) is not a way to go through ~~life~~ a Big Ten game, son.

Douglass--I gave Stu some deserved praise after the last game so, of course, Evil Stu decided to resurface in Columbus. I think MGoBlue.com should start keeping a stat for instances in which Stu dribbles to the No Man's Land near the baseline just outside of the paint only to step on the line or turn the ball over in some other innovative way. I'm pretty sure this has happened 842 times this year. This is just Basketball 101, but, dribbling down there is exactly where a good man-to-man defense wants to funnel you. If you add to that by leaving your feet to pass then you're pretty much assuring that the possession will end in disaster. In order to continue to be a solid to solid+ player, he needs to stop with the adventurism near the baseline. Otherwise, he went a poor 3/9 from the field, although he did show a nice little move for a layup at one point. I would assume that both he and Zack will be up for the game on Wednesday against Indiana.

Morgan--Morgan was certainly not going to win his matchup with Sullinger, but we needed him to convert more of those opportunities around the basket. I like Morgan so I'm not going to sit here and call a Division-I athlete "soft," but he does need to be a little bit stronger around the basket (the instance where he got the ball taken from him in the post comes to mind). With Zeller coming to town on Wednesday, it doesn't get much easier for him.

McLimans--Made a 3. Got some more minutes due to JMo's foul troubles...still just a guy.
Vogrich--No shot attempts in 6 minutes; did pull in a pair of boards.
Smotrycz--Similar to THJ with respect to the Space Jam analogy. Obviously, Big Ten play is a huge step up from playing the likes of Alabama A&M and those other teams that Evan had success against, but man...the confidence isn't there. I thought hitting that one three in the first half would have bolstered his confidence but he went on to miss his remaining 5 attempts, 3 of which were from beyond the arc. Other than looking generally unconfident, it doesn't seem like he's really even having fun, which would definitely feed into the former; a symptom, if you will.
Christian--Michigan is basically playing 4 on 5 with him on the floor. He did show some nice hustle but completely freaked out when Burke shot him a pass near the basket.

Ohio Preview: Points of Interest*

2012-01-27T06:00:00.031-05:00

John Beilein looks to point us to victory against Ohio like
noted pointing aficionado Brady Hoke

*What I did there...you see it.

General Outlook
Michigan comes into this one riding high, tied for first place in the Big Ten. That's right. Michigan is 16-5 (6-2), and one would think that four more wins would make the Wolverines a sure thing. The win at West Lafayette went a long way toward mitigating some anxiety in that respect.

Ohio State, on the other hand, has been a top 5 fixture. The Buckeyes are coming off of three straight drubbings of Indiana, Nebraska, and Penn State by an average margin of 25 points. Their three losses have come at Kansas (minus Sullinger), at Indiana, and at Illinois, the game in which Brandon Paul decided to harvest all the residual MJ talent floating around the Land of Lincoln en route to a truly absurd 43-point effort. In short, they have lost in three pretty tough environments, one without Sullinger and another featuring one of those Daniel Horton-esque performances where every shot goes in, eyes open or closed. However, the Buckeyes have just been vaporizing teams at home, although the only Big Ten teams to visit Columbus thus far have been Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, and Indiana. This is not a great time to be traveling to Columbus, as they are simply firing on all cylinders.

This is probably the one game on the schedule that is objectively beyond our reach. A loss isn't a season-killer by any means, so I look forward to being able to focus on the matchups just to see how much we have or haven't improved, individually and as a team. Considering how the Hoosiers fared (despite recent struggles, they are still a solid squad) at Value City Arena, keeping this game close would be an achievement.

The Offense
As it it stands, UVA and Wisconsin sit atop the scoring defense rankings; the Buckeyes are not far behind, only relinquishing 56.0 ppg. On the plus side, two straight games against high-pressure teams like Arkansas and Purdue (albeit different styles of pressure) will probably have served as good practice for this game. Trey Burke in particular has his work cut out for him, as he will be checked by Aaron Craft, the definitive defensive pest. Craft is quick and active with his hands, so Trey better be ready to fight off the fatigue and put the free arm out to protect or Craft will steal it. Craft is top 15 in steals, averaging a Madoffian 2.5 per game. Trey has gone up against quick slot ninja-esque types before--namely UVA's Jontel Evans and Purdue's Lewis Jackson--so he should be prepared, although those guys have had some success in locking Burke up to an extent (particularly Evans). I just checked and Craft is listed at 6'2'', which is definitely taller than I imagined. This will be a difficult matchup for Trey; if he comes out looking good then feel free to ramp up the hype machine tenfold.

The Buckeyes have some good size across the boards, but it isn't necessarily overwhelming. Only the 6'11'' Amir Williams off the bench is a true center type, and he's averaging a mere ("a mere"...GET IT) 8 minutes a game. Sophomores Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas are the bigs at 6'9'' and 6'7'', Buford is a big guard at 6'6'' and then you've got Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr. at 6'2'' and 6'4'' respectively. Like all good teams, the Buckeyes are near the top of the national ranks in rebounding margin (+7.5), with only the Spartans crashing the boards better in the conference. Second chances will likely be hard to come by.

The Buckeyes are only behind the Spartans and Badgers in 3-point defense percentage, giving up the trey at a 31.5% rate. With Craft likely to be in Burke's face all game long, Michigan might not have a lot of good drive and dish looks and Trey might not get too many good looks himself while on the dribble. This has all the makings of a game in which THJ jacks up a good number of contested threes in response to the consistent Buckeye pressure (I would imagine that Lenzelle Smith Jr. will draw him, a young guy who has upped his minutes from last year by playing defense). Let's hope that is not the case, but Michigan will have to hit more than a few contested looks to have a chance by the end of the game.

The Defense
The Buckeyes average 78.0 ppg, more than anybody in the conference save Indiana. Sullinger has an array of moves and is simply a bull on the block. Sullinger is shooting a Morgan-esque 59% from the field, and is right behind Zack Novak in eFG% at 61.5% (which seems to be slightly--and hilariously--buoyed up by being 8-17 from 3). When he gets the ball, he scores.

Jordan Morgan might want to eat some serious Cottage Inn between now and
Sunday to make up the 15 or so pounds he's giving up to this man

Deshaun Thomas and William Buford are the other two double digit scorers (15.0 and 15.2 ppg respectively). They are high usage guys, but their percentages aren't anything to write home about, overall or from three. Past them, Craft isn't a big time scorer (8.0 ppg) but they don't really need him to be. Lenzelle Smith is only averaging 6.0 ppg but doesn't seem to be a high usage guy. However, he did drop 28 on the Hoosiers at home, giving me enough reason to be suspicious of him. He only averages about 4 shots a game, but he is shooting 49% from 3 on 37 attempts. Speaking of, he is Ohio's best 3-point shooter by far and is only 4th in attempts. With the Buckeyes shooting the 3 about as poorly as us (34% to our 34.2%), Thaddeus Matta should probably find a way to get Smith to shoot more (actually, SHHH...nobody tell him). Thomas and Buford shoot the 3 at 38% and 35% respectively, and Craft's at 30%. If there is any comfort to be had, it's that the Buckeyes might not kill us when we collapse on Sullinger.

Every time I get the urge to say "hey, let's play a little more zone" (i.e. before the Purdue game), Michigan tries it...and it fails spectacularly. This is unfortunate, as Ohio's 3-point shooting doesn't scare me. Plus, Craft would have a hard time slicing up the zone if his defender is sagging off of him, as should probably be the case. Sadly, Michigan is going to have to survive on grit and grit alone. Luckily, we do have Zack Novak, who heads the glorious Department of GRIT. If there was a way to execute grit transactions, this would be the time for Novak to wire some to Morgan. If JMo can hold his ground and, more importantly, not pick up two quick and early fouls, Michigan has a chance to keep Sullinger reasonably in check. On the plus side, it seems like it's been a while since JMo has picked up two early fouls. Oddly, I have some faith that Morgan can body up on Sullinger.

Pros:

They don't shoot the 3 exceptionally well. Rather, they don't have one guy that could be called a true specialist.
They aren't a great FT shooting team (67.9%, good for 189th in the country).
This is somewhere between a pro and a con, but...while Ohio's offensive rebound percentage is approximately 5% better than ours (good for a difference of 161 spots in the rankings), they are not Michigan State (39.1%, good for 17th). They'll get their offensive boards but we won't get destroyed like we did against MSU.

Cons:

They're top 10 in overall FG% (49.2%).
Ohio is second nationally in turnover margin, so they value the ball as much as Tommy Rees loves throwing interceptions and Lloyd Carr values leather-bound books. Michigan won't get a lot of help there. TINSTAAFL's basketball cousin TINSTAAFB applies here...There's No Such Thing As A Free Bucket.
Jared Sullinger and Michigan's lack of beef and/or depth.

This is a classic "key on the big guy and hope the perimeter guys miss their good looks" sort of game. Sullinger will make his post moves and make Morgan look silly here and there, but Buford and Thomas are the players Michigan needs to hope have off nights.

Who/What To Watch

Trey vs. Craft on both ends of the floor. If Trey can consistently handle the pressure and can prevent Craft from zooming past him on the defensive end (like Lewis Jackson was able to do) then we have a shot.
Jordan Morgan vs. early fouls.
Whether or not THJ can pick up the play-creating slack with Burke being checked by Craft. He had four turnovers at Purdue, but I'll take it if he keeps thinking ATTACK first.

Meaningless Prediction
I hope I'm not setting myself up for disappointment, but I think Michigan has a pretty good chance to keep it closer than any of the other Big Ten teams that have paid the Buckeyes a visit thus far (that's not saying much, but still). If Michigan can avoid having anybody fall victim to the "2 fouls and proceed to eat bench" thing then we won't get blown out before reaching halftime. If THJ and Morgan have strong performances like they did in WL, there's a chance. I'm saying there's a chance. Craft will get into Burke and I'm sure we won't get any calls, so it basically comes down to whether or not Michigan's shooters can hit with hands in their faces. It's pretty reductive, but beating Ohio at home is difficult enough, even with everybody playing well. On the road, well...it's a tall order.

Michigan will keep it sort of close for a while, but with Stu's erratic shooting, Smotrycz's plummeting shooting percentage and/or lack of confidence since the beginning of Big Ten play, and THJ's still debatable dedication to attacking the rim, it's difficult seeing us being in a real position to win in the final couple of minutes. Michigan 63, Ohio 76.

Michigan-Purdue: Learning To Fly

2012-01-25T07:00:00.033-05:00

Michigan 66, Purdue 64

There were 3.8 seconds left, and Evan Smotrycz was on the line after Michigan capably whipped the ball around berserker Boilermaker defenders trying to foul. A defender stood between him and an open Zack Novak, but he somewhat awkwardly held on to it. Purdue had no timeouts, and even if Smotrycz missed both, their chances of victory were minimal...and yet, it wasn't over. There are those that will be quick to say that it's not over until the clock reads all zeroes, as if there is some yet un-mined nuance of wisdom in the statement. Most fans will find this person annoying; that is decidedly not the case for Michigan fans. Evan Turner. The Wisconsin game. I don't even have to say any more and you know what I'm talking about. End of game scenarios are inextricably linked with fear; College Basketball rings the Pavlovian bell and Michigan fans are conditioned to cringe.

The door was slightly ajar, and it pushed open slightly when Smotrycz got fouled. He made the first free throw, calmly and without difficulty, pushing the door back so that it was very nearly shut. He missed the second. I braced for the worst.

When the final heave harmlessly careened off of the backboard, I breathed a sigh of relief. You could say it was the Universe's way of meting out a makeup call.

Sadly, putting this picture in a post does
not magically make this football season.
(HT: Mike DeSimone)

I continue to wear my 2007-08 Michigan basketball shirt in order to give me the opportunity to look at it during games and realize how far we've really come. The last time Michigan had left West Lafayette victorious came a month and a half after John Navarre and Chris Perry led Michigan to a bowl victory against Rex Grossman and Ron Zook's Florida Gators. It was a long, long time ago. Purdue might be down, but don't let that convince you that this win was anything but incredibly meaningful for this team and this program. The fact that Purdue's final desperation heave didn't fall is, in a way, revealing. Maybe this is the cosmos's way of letting us have start to have nice things.

Michigan not only went on the road and won at an extremely difficult place to get a win, they weathered the storm of a 17-3 Purdue run that extinguished Michigan's 10-point lead and then some. It would have been easy to stop there, to say it's not our day and that winning on the road in this conference is just an added bonus, the extra scoop of ice cream that a disinterested employee doesn't bother charging you for.

At the under 8 minutes TV timeout, Michigan was down 47-51. In the remaining minutes, Jordan Morgan, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, and Stu Douglass all scored, and Zack Novak contributed the final brilliant assist. This was a team effort. Also, for a team that seems to rise and fall with Jordan Morgan's production in a correlative fashion, it is only fitting that the winning basket was one of his patented thunder dunks.

A Big Ten road win and a 16th win (when Michigan had 19 pre-Big Ten Tournament wins all of last season)? It's a start.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Welcome Back Tim":

Burke--It's hard to complain too much after a cathartic win like that, but the freshman has been having a hard time from the field, going 3/10 (0/2 from 3) with two of those makes being layups. Trey had some trouble containing Lewis Jackson, which is a little disappointing after his performance against Jordan Taylor but is also understandable...Jackson is unbelievably quick (he could probably be a slot ninja type in an RR offense). Trey also had one of his most glaring "freshman moments" to date, when Michigan had the ball with under a minute to go, up 1, with the opportunity to run some clock out. It all worked out in the end, but you certainly would've liked to see the offense run for a little bit before having Trey go into play-making mode.

Hardaway--First, the bad...THJ had some significant issues on the defensive end. Early in the game, I remember him getting blown by with ease, only to get bailed out by Burke, who was in position to take the charge. Not long after that, THJ was lackadaisical in closing out on an open 3-point shooter (this is not the only instance of this). As much as people complained about aspects of his offensive game, his defense has been equally worthy of criticism. With his size and overall athleticism, he could be an above average defensive player if he wanted to. With that said...man it's nice to see THJ fill it up again. A solid 8/15 from the field (2/6 from 3) and a diverse execution of his offensive repertoire equals a happy me. Hopefully this was the adrenaline jolt he needed to get his game back on track for good.

Douglass--Stu has secretly been a really good player for us (minus his outside shooting, which has been either really bad or killer)...it wasn't even a secret this game. Here's the line: 12 points (5/8 overall, 2/3 from 3), 5 boards 3 assists, 2 steals, and only 1 turnover. That is a very good game, and Stu has quietly been a mini-revelation since Smotrycz's benching.

Novak--Had a sort of quiet game on the offensive end, but he did only shot the ball four times, going 2/4 overall (1/1 from 3). On the other hand, contributed 8 gritty boards, as usual. He also pitched in 3 assists, the most crucial being the final one during which he created the play on the bounce to find an open ready-to-dunk Morgan on the block. That's not a play that City of Gritville's best and only resident could make a year ago.

Morgan--When Morgan is on, this team is so much more fun to watch. I would argue that when Morgan's play/statistical contribution (yes, again, some of his points are due to just being wide open) is the biggest indicator of Michigan's success on a given day. If I didn't know what the score was, and you told me that Morgan had gone 5/7 from the field for 12 points, I would guess with confidence that we had won. By the way, this is the second time that someone has grabbed him by the arm like that (the first being the incident during the Northwestern game)...hey, tiny Big Ten guards. Stop that.

Vogrich--Only five minutes...made his one field goal attempt (and it wasn't even a 3).
Smotrycz--A very solid performance from the bench, going 3/5 from the field and 1/2 from 3, good for 10 points. Throw in the only one turnover and I'll take that from him every time. I don't think he's close to starting again yet, but this was a good first step toward that end.
Akunne--Resurfaced in this one only to get hurt at some point during his 2 minutes of play. Hopefully it's not too serious; he's obviously not a big piece, but Michigan can't really afford that many injuries, even to low-usage depth guys.
Brundidge--One minute. Looked awkward the one time he had the ball. It's hard to really say anything about him when he plays so few minutes. Hopefully Michigan will be on the winning side of a blowout one of these days so we can get a better look at him.

Purdue Preview: So It Begins

2012-01-24T07:00:00.006-05:00

General Outlook

Michigan enters the murderous portion of the schedule, and, despite a win over Izzo and the Spartans, confidence is not exactly to be found in spades. Michigan has lost two of its last 3, one an embarrassing loss at Iowa, the other at Arkansas. The latter doesn't bother me as much, but the fact that Michigan was losing by double digits for most of the game is more than a little worrisome as a matter of general competitiveness.

It doesn't get easier, as Michigan heads to West Lafayette tonight to face a Purdue team that has had their own share of struggles this season. Purdue sits at 14-6 (4-3), a game behind Michigan in the standings. Replacing outgoing stars JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore has been a difficult task, especially as 12th year senior Robbie Hummel continues to attempt to regain the game he had pre-injury. The Boilermakers' losses have come to: Alabama, @Xavier (a game in which they were up big and blew big time), a scuffling Butler team, @PSU, Wisconsin, and the recent drubbing @MSU.

As their record indicates, they have been very hit or miss throughout the Big Ten slate thus far, part of which is attributable to the fact that they have already played 4 away games compared to Michigan's 2. This Purdue team is definitely a notch or two below the Purdue squads of the last few years, but this is a team that has played us tough (Beilein is 1-5 against the Boilermakers) and we are not exactly indisputably better by any means.

The Offense
Going from Arkansas' press to Purdue's more traditional man-to-man is akin to a college football team playing Oregon one game and Wisconsin the next. Personally, I've always preferred and admired Purdue's brand of defense. It is in-your-face and TOUGH and GRITTY and all the other things that a Midwestern team should be if we're letting stereotypes rule the day. Oh, what's that? Purdue's defense might not be so gritty you say?

Since you hypothetical question-answered there, Purdue's normally tenacious defense has taken a bit of a step back. Purdue boasted the #31 scoring defense in the country last season (second best in the conference), giving up a mere 61.9 ppg. This season, the Boilermakers are sitting at 81st, giving up 63.0 ppg (5th best in the conference). It seems like a small change, but the drop off passes the eye test as well. It's difficult to explain the dropoff with complete certainty, but there's no doubt that the loss of Johnson's shot-blocking presence and Moore's ability to rack up steals has contributed to the declawing of an ordinarily stout Painter defense.

As far as defensive rebounding goes, the Boilers are about a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team (34.2 rpg, good for 6th in the conference). Michigan has about a 40 spot lead on Purdue in rebounding margin as well (2.1 and .6 respectively).

Purdue is about as good as Michigan when it comes to defending the three (36.0% compared to Michigan's 36.2%), which is to say "not very good." Michigan should have their open looks: can they hit them? This is the question of our time, one that can be asked before every game.

In short, Purdue is at best average in almost every defensive category. They give up the three about as often as Michigan does, they're not a great rebounding team, and they're not a shot-blocking threat post-Johnson...despite all this, they're giving up 63.0 ppg (good for 80th nationally). That's not bad, and I don't think that Michigan really has the depth or the desire to try to push the tempo to give them problems by trying to score before they're set. With Michigan's dedication the 3, the lack of a shot-blocker doesn't mean too much...that is, unless THJ, you know, decides to SEARCH AND DESTROY.

The Defense
As mentioned, 6'10'' JaJuan Johnson is currently plying his trade in the NBA with the Boston Old Guys. That is very good news indeed, as there's no doubt he would've have torn us up yet again. His stat line from the beating last season in Crisler: 22 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks. Jordan Morgan, you may rest at ease. Even more importantly, Purdue has not replaced JJ's production whatsoever. Purdue's top 7 scorers are all guards if you count DJ Byrd, who is listed as a 6'5'' guard/forward. Like Arkansas, this is another heavily guard-dependent team, which isn't necessarily unusual for a college basketball team, but still. Michigan doesn't have to worry about getting rebounded over or bullied in this one like they usually do.

Positives for the Celtics: is not 90. Positives for us: is not currently a Boilermaker.

Like Michigan, Purdue doesn't really shoot the 3 exceptionally well (35.5% as a team). Only senior Ryne Smith eclipses the 40% barrier, shooting at a very impressive 43%. Hey, Michigan. If you forget what the scouting reports are re: Purdue's 3-point shooters, remember that their specialist is the guy who spells his first name "Ryne." Otherwise, Robbie Hummel is the only other Boilermaker to have over 100 attempts from 3, and he shoots 35%. However, every time I've turned a Purdue game on of late, it seems like he's missing 3s in horrendous fashion (i.e. airballin' it). Hummel has gotten progressively worse from 3 since his stellar freshman season back when Lloyd Carr was still coaching football (I could have said "1962" or something for a cheap HURR joke, but saying "when Lloyd Carr was coaching football makes it sound like it was equally long ago, right?).

The thing Purdue does have going for it is that they value the ball, sitting at 11th in the nation in assist to turnover ratio. This is unsurprising given that Hummel, Kelsey Barlow, Lewis Jackson, and Ryne Smith are all upperclassmen. For the most part, Michigan will have to D up the old-fashioned way, as not many cheap turnovers will likely come their way. Past Hummel and Lewis Jackson, Purdue has a pretty big dropoff in offensive capability. Additionally, Jackson seems to be nursing some lingering injuries, and despite being the team's second leading scorer, is somewhat of an X-factor per his own coach's words.

Luckily, Purdue doesn't really expose any of Michigan's biggest flaws (lack of size, 3-point defense, depth). Despite being 4th in the conference in possessions per 40 (66.3 per game, good for a hilarious 209th nationally), that is of course like being one of the fastest turtles in a turtle race. I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan throw in some zone a little more than usual in this game.

Who/What To Watch

Please please please MAKE THREES. Please. This is more a plea than a suggestion of what to watch out for.
Burke on Jackson at the defensive end; we'll need another shutdown effort here.
Burke and Morgan on the pick and roll.

Meaningless Prediction
Looking at everything, this seems to be about as winnable of a game as it gets in this upcoming murderer's row of games. Purdue doesn't seem to do a lot of things exceptionally well, and they do already have a Big Ten loss at home (Wisconsin, Jan. 12). Despite this, I picked Michigan to win on the road at Iowa and Arkansas and came away looking like kind of a homer/overly optimistic (in addition to being wrong). Unlike Ross-Ade, Mackey is a very difficult place to play. It is somewhat of a relief to know that a Wisconsin team we handled got a win there, but that win at Crisler is starting to feel like a distant memory. Unlike the last two road games, I think Michigan keeps it close for most of the game, as I don't really see either team having the firepower or overall competence to pull away. Unless THJ or Smotrycz bounce back and have a huge game, I think Michigan drops a close one. Michigan 61, Purdue 66.

Miscellaneous Minutiae, 1/23/2012

2012-01-23T10:06:00.007-05:00

If the focus on basketball of late in this here space hasn't given you enough of a hint, it is now in fact the horrible, empty thing known as "the offseason." As such, I will try to have one newsy/links-saturated post a week. Most of the topics will be Michigan-centric, but I do plan on taking about general college football a decent bit as well. Until I think of something less lame, these types of posts will go by the above title, lifted straight from the last section of my football posts.

Recruiting. National Signing Day approaches, a time of both excruciating pain and inexplicable glory for unathletic middle aged men across this great land. First, a preface: it is this blog's policy to talk about recruiting as little as possible. Having recently turned an age that would make me a year older than almost all college football athletes--minus the Weeden and Bauserman types--it hit me that the whole business is incredibly strange and definitely somewhat creepy. As far as I'm concerned, the halcyon days of my youth were the best times of my Michigan fandom; I never knew who the players were before they came in, I never knew what accolades or star-rankings they came in with, whether they were good fits for the system, had character/grade issues, and whether or not they think that NIKE Pro Combat jerseys are "sick." RoJo, the Terrelle Pryor sweepstakes, the great safety strikeout of 2010 (Knight, Parker, Dorsey), Bri'onte Dunn, and a plethora of other highly-charged stress-inducing recruiting inflection points have slowly soured me on the whole thing.

However, in this age of hyper-informed fans, it's impossible to completely ignore recruiting lest you have your fandom questioned by other Michigan Men (particularly on the cusp of NSD). My general philosophy is "trust the coaches and whatever happens, happens." It was that way when RR was still around ( and Lloyd too). I have no problem talking about where committed or officially signed/early enrolled players fit into the scheme of the next season and beyond. Even if it's impossible to tell how a player will turn out--particularly in light of the fact they will grow appreciably, mentally and physically--at least this type of talk is limited to the field. All of the aforementioned can henceforth be considered the OFFICIAL POSITION on recruiting.

With that said, the recent decommitment of long-time commit Caleb Stacey leaves a hole in Michigan's class that must be filled by another OL. As a general note, I wish him well (as all Michigan fans should), and any and all other rhetoric (e.g. "he wasn't that good anyway", "he opens up a spot for a more highly-touted recruit", "he wasn't sure if he could get playing time", etc.) is simply wrong. As one of the earliest commitments of the Brady Hoke era, it's obvious that the coaches liked him, and that's good enough for me.

However, Michigan seems to be in the discussion for a number of quality offensive lineman. Josh Garnett is one such option, and he is announcing this Thursday ($), deciding between Michigan and Stanford. This would give us a 5th OL, a position of desperate need, and one in which we can probably take one more if Garnett picks Michigan.

Mo' Money Mo' Coordinators. In Clemson's continuing effort to rain cash on coordinators, the Tigers hired Oklahoma DC Brent Venables after Bob Stoops brought brother Mike in to co-DC with Brent. This is an excellent hire for the Tigers, who now have two well-respected and well-paid coordinators in Venables and OC Chad Morris. OU did have some trouble on defense this year, particularly through the air, but a heavy slice of that blame probably goes to DB coach (and former UGA DC) Willie Martinez.

When a school like Clemson is capable and willing to pay for coordinators like they have, it makes me increasingly happy that Michigan has joined the rest of the college football landscape in this respect. No longer is Michigan paying their coordinators in Big Ten Burrito gift certificates*.

About Last Night. So, I went to bed thinking about a NATIONAL. FOOTBALL. LEAGUE. featuring one Chip Kelly and all of the hilarity that that would entail. As I watched the Giants and 49ers duke it out in a classic gritfest of offensive ineptitude, the concept of Chip Kelly in the NFL was absurd and outright hilarious, albeit incredibly interesting. And, yet, it seemed that it had all been confirmed.

Wisely, Chip checked out of that play overnight, electing to remain in Eugene and continue to operate that Death Star of an offense despite rumors of supposed NCAA violations being the incentive to get out of Dodge (and a canceled Sacramento recruiting trip looking like evidence that his departure was imminent).

As interesting as an NFL game coached by Chip Kelly might have been, we all know how that would have ended. The NFL is not a place for systems, no matter how brilliant. As such, Kelly staying is a win for college football. While I still have my doubts about Oregon actually winning a national championship (I think an Auburn team with a fairly mediocre defense might have been their best chance), at least he will continue to give us exciting football instead of having to watch him fight the derp-laden stodgy reactionism of the NFL for 2 years.

Wolverine Historian. WH with the 1998 Big Ten Tournament championship game...vacated but not forgotten.

On The Road Again. Speaking of basketball, Michigan heads to West Lafayette tomorrow night in what might be the most winnable game of this upcoming 5-game stretch. Read that sentence again. The next two weeks might not be very fun.

On the bright side, the Boilermakers did just get handled by the Spartans this past weekend, and they have looked like a shell of their former selves throughout this entire season. At this point, I have very little faith in Michigan's ability to have success on the road, but we'll see (I think I'll have a preview at some point tomorrow). Maybe this is the game that THJ finally breaks out for good. FWIW, here's Hammer & Rails with a brief rundown of the performance in East Lansing.

Mentioning East Lansing=another excuse to post this

*Which, if they exist, would be the worst gift/form of payment ever...PANCHERO'S UBER ALLES.

More? Lefty to Auburn...an interesting hire, not exactly ideal that he's attempting to replace Gus Malzahn. Virginia basketball drops one at home to Virginia Tech; that's 2 losses out of their last 3 for UVA. UMHoops with efficiency margins and a roundup of the last week in the conference. INFINITE RON SWANSON. I'll take "Headlines Connected To College Football That I Thought I'd Never See" for 1,000, Alex.

Michigan-Arkansas: The War of Novak's Aggression

2012-01-22T12:00:00.016-05:00

Michigan 64, Arkansas 66

Preface: CBS didn't switch to the game until there was 13:20 or so left in the first half, so I missed the beginning of what metastasized into a 20-point deficit.

William Tecumseh Sherman and Zack Novak: related?

This was the quintessential college basketball game, one that could have easily passed for an opening round tournament game. If this was played at Crisler, the arena and the weather and a general voodoo that permeates college basketball at large would have come together to prevent the Razorbacks from starting the game on a ridiculous shooting tear far exceeding their ability. And, of course, they wouldn't have been able to ride the waves of pure energy that a home crowd can generate for a team. However, this game was played in Arkansas, and geography is more than half the battle in college basketball, as we all know.

In the end, this doesn't mean all that much. The nature of the loss makes it particularly hard to stomach (cutting a ridiculous deficit down to 2, the last shot being 99% in, a lost chance to stick it to the SEC, etc.), but it hasn't really changed the outlook for the season; Michigan will make their money throughout the rest of the conference schedule. Although Arkansas looked like the Monstars on this day (I think I remember the Monstars pressing a little bit), their performance to date suggests that they are a bubble team at best. This wasn't a bad loss, but it wouldn't have been a great win insofar as tournament resumes are concerned. It would have been nice to see Michigan travel far away and dispatch an unorthodox team on the road, but it didn't happen. There's nothing to say but "oh well" and move on (/continues to write stuff).

The story of this game is pretty simple. Arkansas came out en fuego, hitting their first 11 shots. Misses were few and far between even after that prolific run. Michigan's defense wasn't quite airtight, but some of those shots were just insane, video game shots, Arkansas players contorting their bodies like Kobe Bryant to rip an off-balanced three through the net. Arkansas ended the game shooting exactly 50% overall and 45.5% from 3. Their season averages: 43.8% and 34.7%, respectively. "Sometimes when you're on..."

The rest of the game was simply a struggle against the current of Arkansas's shooting and defensive pressure, an excruciatingly slow chipping away of the lead (I think a Big Ten=slow HURR joke goes here). Michigan was lucky enough to enter the half only down 13, even luckier than they were to only be down 7 at the half against Northwestern. The press wasn't an enormous factor from a turnover perspective, as far as I can remember. In fact, Michigan turned the ball over only ten times, under their season average of 11.3 TOPG*. Other than the frenzied Burke turnover that lead to the Novak FALCON PUNCH of BJ Young**, I can't remember the press really affecting Michigan significantly. With that said, Arkansas did a good job of pressuring in general, and a number of offensive possessions consisted of Burke fighting off on-the-ball pressure and traps, trying to make something happen as everybody else sort of stands around, existing. Michigan's half court sets were in a constant state of frenzied disorganization, as if somebody was adding or taking away an electron from the atomic structure of their offensive game plan.

At the same time, even if Burke dribbles the ball too much a la Morris...who else would you rather have dribbling the ball on this team? This question would be pretty frightening if we hadn't known about this problem since basically the beginning of the Beilein era. Other than Trey, the only one who can create his own shot on a regular basis is THJ, and he's still reluctant to do so for whatever reason***. Novak and Douglass can do things occasionally, but they're not going out and creating with any regularity, despite my facetious citing in this space of Zack's future AND1 basketball career. Vogrich literally cannot (or is told not to) do anything on the bounce and Smotrycz on the dribble is often a horror show. It's hard to get anything done against a zone or man-to-man in the half court game when most of your team is either too unathletic or unskilled to make something happen on their own. So, every play for Trey is basically this commercial:

There were innumerable occasions when Vogrich or Smotrycz would hold the ball 40 feet from the basket, waiting for Burke to free himself from a defender, presenting zero threat to do anything with the ball but hold it and wait for Burke to retrieve it and start "the offense." It's getting to the point that I almost feel sorry for Trey while simultaneously being in awe at his ability to play 39 minutes against a pressing team and still have enough energy to frown at the end when the last shot rattled out. This is doubly impressive in light of Appling being gassed after 31 minutes last Tuesday.

After Novak turned into LeBron playing in Cleveland, Hossa in Detroit, etc., he and Trey tried to will Michigan to victory in spite of the rest of the team's general ineffectiveness. Novak hit a three to silence the ESSSS EEEEE CEEEE crowd--a crowd that has apparently never seen a hard foul before--and cut it to 6, after which Arkansas brought it back to 11 for a stretch. Novak hit another 3, took a charge, and tapped out a ball to extend a possession down the stretch, vengefully torching Arkansas like Sherman did Atlanta. Morgan was outrunning Arkansas's bigs and slamming down precision passes in that way that usually means Michigan is winning/going to win (or that good things are happening in general). Burke was Burke; tireless, a bundle of thankless, humble effort.

Hunter McSouthern Guy Mickelson managed a layup as the shot clock was just about to run out, bringing the lead to 4, 66-62, after which Burke cut it to 2. Upon fouling during the next possession, an Arkansas player flew across the lane to corral a rebound (right through Smotrycz, as if he wasn't there) on a missed free throw, eventually resulting in a second chance for the Razorbacks. Luckily, Arkansas missed on the front end once again, giving Michigan a chance to win the game on the final possession.

Coming out of a timeout, the last play was disjointed and seemingly purposeless, but in retrospect...I'm not sure that I would have trusted the ball to anyone's hands but Trey's. The ball went in on a ridiculous step back from well behind the arc and then, on a whim, bounced out, determined to finish this chaotic and nonsensical game of college basketball with a thematically consistent final salvo. That is, consistent insofar as chaos and nonsense can be consistent.

*FWIW, I thought it was a hard foul and nothing more. There's zero chance that he was actually trying to hurt Young, but I'm sure Jay Bilas will shortly be lobbying for Novak's excommunication from the game of basketball. Also, I have to laugh at the Arkansas fans in attendance...you guys got the flagrant foul. Stop booing (protip: he wants you to boo).

**On the other hand, Arkansas only had 8, 5 under their season average of 13.4 TOPG. I thought we'd be able to force more.
***Even when he does attack, he hasn't shown the confidence that he seemed to have last year. For instance, THJ's drive near the end of the game (when it was 64-62, about a minute left) ended in a sort of meek flip.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Trey Burke And Those Who Are Not Trey Burke":

Burke--The box score doesn't really do his performance justice. He continues to not shoot the ball too well (6/19 overall, 1/6 from 3), but he is just a gamer, and I say that in as unironic a manner as possible. Throw in 7 boards, a 6:2 assist to turnover, a steal, and another of his now patented blocks, not to mention his tireless handling of the press and the offense as a whole, and that's a strong performance. He takes a bad shot from time to time, but with other players being about as useful as a box of paper clips, I'll reiterate that I'd rather Trey do it than someone else.

Hardaway--I'm getting to the point where, instead of tinkering with a recalibration of expectations, I'm just throwing all preconceived notions out the window and starting with a blank slate. If anything, it makes watching him play less frustrating. Went 3/8 from the field (1/4 from 3), 2/2 from the line. The song remains the same.

Novak--The Mayor of Gritville traveled away to Fayetteville to remind these Ozarkian folks what the best ville-suffixed city is. He did have one charge, but overall these refs seemed to not know how to call the charge, even more so than usual. Led Michigan with 17 and was simply an assassin from the field (6/9 overall, 5/7 from 3). This team is going to be so much less ragey and intense when he's gone and it will be terrible.

Douglass--A very rough day from the field (2/10 overall, a horrible 1/8 from 3), but he did pitch in 5 assists to 1 TO. Maybe I'm confusing him for Vogrich with this, but did seem to get beat more on the bounce in this one than is normally the case. To his defense, Arkansas is a pretty quick, athletic team. Quite honestly, they might end up being the most purely athletic team Michigan has faced all year when all is said and done.

Morgan--Yes, you could say that his point totals are entirely dependent on others finding him wide open near the basket, but he doesn't score those points if he isn't running the floor hard. A great second half of dunks and layups for Morgan...consistently beat Arkansas bigs down the middle of the floor. That's the type of effort we need from him. He's still somewhat hit or miss around the basket when he has to actually maneuver himself around a defender. I would have liked to have seen him take that jumper instead of hesitating before that 3-second call was made. I remember him making a nice elbow jumper earlier this season, and this one would have been just outside of the paint. Now isn't the time to experiment, I guess, but I think the 10-13 footer is a shot that he can make.

Smotrycz--An absolute ghost. Finished with 4 points on 1/2 from the field in 15 nondescript minutes. Did have a pair of offensive boards, including a tip in right after the Novak flagrant foul sequence. Usage is obviously down since entering the doghouse, but 15 minutes is more than enough time to do something, anything. Although it didn't hurt us in the end, having that Arkansas player come across the lane to rebound a free throw from Smotrycz's block is embarrassing from both a technique and an effort perspective. As they are playing now, Smotrycz and THJ are preventing this team from being a a sure thing re: the tournament.
Vogrich--0/2 from the field, was shook by Young pretty badly on one defensive sequence. Dropped a dime on the Novak three before the end of the first half and showed some nice smarts in driving and dishing to a crashing Smotrycz on another occassion, leading to a pair of free throws. Still a painfully limited player, and despite having flashed great range from 3, is shooting 24% from there.
McLimans--Two minutes...not a factor again. Not really a good sign that's he gotten four minutes combined in the last two games, especially with Horford still being out.

Arkansas Preview: Headin' Down South

2012-01-20T07:00:00.046-05:00

General Outlook
In their first step toward the Mordor at the end of this two-week stretch, the Wolverines head down to the Ozarks tomorrow to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the annual "which one of these is not like the others" game of the schedule. Although I'm sure UM researchers are busily at work as I speak, a portable photovoltaic cell for the capture of raw energy emitted by Denard Robinson hasn't been invented yet, so it would seem that the Wolverines will have to win this one solely on the back of grit and execution.

The End of the Road

Michigan, of course, is coming off of two divergent performances with respect to energy, fire, grit, general oomph, and whatever other descriptor you may prefer. The Iowa game was a disaster, and the MSU game wasn't necessarily pretty but the effort was clearly there from the very beginning. Arkansas, on the other hand, comes in at a somewhat underwhelming 13-5 (2-2), with losses coming to Houston, @Oklahoma, @UCONN, @Ole Miss, and Tuesday's dismantling at Rupp Arena. Houston is currently 9-9 overall, 1-4 in Conference USA play. The other four aren't terrible losses, particularly UCONN and UK, obviously. With that said, this is an Arkansas team that has played several teams with a pulse and come away victorious only once (against a ranked Mississippi State on January 7th). For what it's worth, the Razorbacks did dispatch a common opponent, Oakland, with relative ease, beating the Golden Grizzlies by 23.

With 12 games left for Arkansas after the Michigan game, splitting those would have Arkansas sitting at 19 wins; would a 20th be enough to push Arkansas off the bubble? I'm not sure, especially since my opinion of SEC basketball is about as high as my opinion of dubstep, "Whitney", and Skip Bayless...which is low indeed. A win against Michigan would be a solid feather in the cap of Arkansas's likely-to-be unimpressive (come March) resume. They will play accordingly, and Michigan players must be ready for a lively arena full of grown adults yelling "Woo Pig Sooie" with very little self-awareness or inhibition.

Mike Anderson, trying to make sure that the people in front of him are in fact chanting "Woo Pig Sooie" (HT: Beth Hall, AP)

The Offense
This game is particularly dangerous simply for the fact that it forces Michigan to prepare for something different, which, in this case, is of course Mike Anderson's famous "40 minutes of hell" approach. It does no use to approach the press like some approach the spread offense in college football (i.e. as a gimmick). It is what it is, and Anderson has implemented his system to great success at UAB(!) and Missouri before coming to Fayetteville this season. He took the Blazers of UAB to a Sweet Sixteen in 2004, and while many will argue that it's a system that has a distinct ceiling that precludes a program from reaching an elite heights, it can be very effective on a game-to-game basis.

With that said, given top notch point play and general experience, the press is something that can be surgically attacked. Kentucky is, well, Kentucky, but the contest Tuesday night was a glorified layup line. While Anderson has had teams execute his system with a quickness and a piranha-esque tenacity that was truly exciting to watch (as long as your team wasn't involved), it doesn't seem that they're quite there yet. Like a lot of SEC teams, Arkansas seems to have some ATH-A-LETES, but they are conceding 65.5 ppg (good for 139th nationally). Guards range from 6'1'' to 6'5'', which could be an issue given Burke's lack of size; some purposeless dribbling and he's trapped. Boom, turnover and points and let's set up and do it again. Of course, Burke is a freshman despite all visual evidence stating otherwise, and this is a road game (Michigan is 0-3 on the road). Naturally, Arkansas is top 15 in steals per game (9.3 per). If Michigan "values the ball," odds are this is not much of a contest.

My impression is that, while I respect Anderson's style of play, it hasn't quite taken root yet. As such, I think Trey et al should be able to handle the press with relative ease. Spot up opportunities from 3 will be available in abundance; Smotrycz, Douglass, and Novak need to connect on these opportunities at a higher rate than they have been of late.

The Defense
Defensively, the Wolverines should be able to hold their own. As the saying goes, "teams that press don't like to be pressed." That's not to say that we should press, but Michigan should be able to force some turnovers. I foresee Stu continuing his streak of outright kleptomania, getting 2 or 3 steals in addition to his usually solid on the ball D.

Arkansas does score the ball (76.1 ppg, good for 41st nationally), but in SEC play thus far they have only scored 63, 69, and 63 in their last three contests respectively (they did drop a whopping 98 on Mississippi State). This is a team that clearly thrives on the mistakes of inferior or inexperienced and undisciplined opponents, favoring games featuring a high volume of possessions (in this respect, they are the anti-Wisconsin). In their lone win worth writing home about (Mississippi State), the Razorbacks forced 18 turnovers and took ten more shots than the Bulldogs en route to a ten point victory.

I haven't seen a whole lot of Arkansas (as I'm sure is true for most), but they seem like the typical fast/pressing team that struggles in half court sets. The only double digit scorers are 6'3'' freshman guard BJ Young (14.7 ppg) and the 6'2'' Mardracus Wade (11.1 ppg), and it seems that Young comes off of the bench despite being their leading scorer. Both are shooting over 50% from the field overall, with Young and Wade shooting 42% and 49% from 3, respectively. Arkansas's only other 3-point threat is Marvell Waithe off the bench, who is 6'9'' FWIW (39%)...that should be an interesting matchup for whomever draws him.

Arkansas has a generic medley of 6'8''/6/9'' guys, but none seem like anything special. The Razorbacks' rebounding margin is atrocious, sitting at -0.9, good for 222nd in the country. Michigan might give up some second chances here and there, but it shouldn't be endemic or ultimately fatal.

Arkansas's top 5 scorers are guards; saying this is a guard-dependent team is like saying Avatar is an entirely special effects-dependent film, one that would otherwise be a poorly done retread and seriously un-enjoyable on any level without such effects. That is, you'd be right in saying either of those things. Yes, without the guard play you get a Junior Varsity squad that tried to press one game after nothing else worked. Without the fancy guard play and all those explosions you get FernGully.*

*There, I said it.

Who/What To Watch

Michigan's three-point shooting in transition.
Burke/Michigan vs. the press in the first 5-10 minutes of the game.
The defensive efforts of Burke, Douglass, and THJ against Arkansas's Young, Nobles, and Wade, etc.

Meaningless Prediction

So, this is mostly based on some perceptions based on the statistical data, and yes, a few preconceived notions, but...I get the feeling that Arkansas is a team that will be good down the road, but they're not there yet. The press can and should be handled, as most good teams are capable of doing. Trey Burke has come a long way since Michigan struggled mightily in Charlottesville against a tough, high pressure defensive (albeit not a pressing team) team. Arkansas seems to have a decent amount of youth on their own roster, and not much in the way of post play or a true big. As long as Michigan doesn't completely wilt under the pressure of the full-court press and at least one person shoots a solid percentage from 3, the Wolverines should be able to escape with a road victory. Also, THJ must attack the basket in the post-press-breakdown chaos; any less than 6-8 FTA and I will be somewhat disappointed. Michigan 74, Arkansas 67.

Michigan-Michigan State: Survival of the Fittest

2012-01-18T07:00:00.035-05:00

Michigan 60, Michigan State 59

On the heels of a faith-shaking performance in Iowa City over the weekend, there couldn't have been a better opponent to have come into Ann Arbor than this one. Another uninspired performance at home against a rival squad and it would have officially been time to invest in real estate near some hills, to which we would have to run. Somewhat lost in the shuffle is the fact that the Spartans came in with a shiny #9 ranking despite a recent loss at Northwestern; this wasn't Izzo's best or most talented team, but they are contenders once again. The Darwinist order of the Big Ten states that if you don't hold serve at home, you're as good as dead, resigned to the dustbin of history (also known as "receiving an invitation to the NIT").

Luckily, to continue the evolutionary/natural selection theme, the Wolverines shed the brittle shell they wore in Iowa City in favor of a much grittier, tougher one at home, a shell that, for one, included a non-starting Evan Smotrycz as part of its makeup (perhaps one of the major culprits in the decidedly un-gritty performance at Iowa).

The first half was eerily reminiscent of the first half of the Wisconsin game. The Wolverines led the entire half, with the Spartans surviving by using their ~~elongated necks to reach the choicest of produce~~ size to pull in board after board on the offensive end. The Spartans scored 20 of their 29 first half points in the paint, largely a product of corraling 25% of their misses. The Spartans, particularly Wood, were not connecting from outside whatsoever, allowing the Wolverines to pull into the half with a 7-point lead.

However, it didn't come without some difficulty, as MSU rattled off a 9-0 run late in the half before Stu executed the old-fashioned 4-point play and THJ converted on a pair of free throws. Minus the Spartans' poor shooting, it was a fairly foreseeable half. Michigan came out with energy and knocked down some shots, only to give up some second chance buckets to Green, Nix, et al. Being a Big Ten home game, the Spartans naturally attempted zero free throws in the entire first half (not that I remember any fouls that should've been called). Burke and Appling took turns zipping up and down the court, flashing some serious ESSS EEEE CEEEE speed in the process. Sidebar: this match-up is only going to get better with these two floor generals running the show (assuming, you know, nobody goes pro and whatnot).

The second half continued to be the Trey Burke show, as the rest of the team seemed to shut it down for a stretch that attempted to squeeze the life out of Michigan's hopes for a victory. The offense bogged down for extended periods of time, leading to a few frenzied possessions extending late into the shot clock only to result in a Burke drive into trouble down low near the baseline.* Michigan found themselves down 4 (57-53) with about 4 minutes left in the game. THJ had another rough outing overall, but he did score two big buckets late to put Michigan down 1 before Burke pulled down a defensive rebound and pushed it down the court with the alacrity of one Derrick Rose, finding a wide open Stu Douglass near the basket. Michigan produced a final stop of one of the most gut-wrenchingly long possessions ever. The ball clanged off the glass and the rim, effectively squashing the memories of Kalin Lucas's late game winner that haunted me just several seconds earlier. Three in a row; GAME BLOUSES.

AND LET'S DANCE.

Click for one of the greatest things ever (HT: swamyblue)

A win's a win, but like I said after the OT win against the Wildcats...we cannot count on Denard to bail us out every time with his emanations of pure cheer and awesome rays. I mean, superstition dictates that he and Roy have to be at every game from here on out, right?

It was hard-fought and at times even a bit aesthetically displeasing (especially on the offensive end), but, in conference play, all that matters is the end result. Michigan held serve, and beating a quality Spartan squad sure doesn't hurt. For now, Michigan retains its spot at or near the top of the Big Ten food chain. In LOTR terms, this game was the celebration in the Shire in The Fellowship of the Ring, full of merriment, drink, and cheer, yet untainted by what was to come. The next five games, on the other hand, represent the perilous trek to Mordor, ending, of course, with a trip to Breslin. So it begins.

/end nerdery

*This is one of the few criticisms I have of him thus far; he seems to put himself in bad spots from time to time by dribbling down into the opponents' bigs near the baseline--about halfway between the hoop and the corner, which is essentially No Man's Land against defensively-attentive squads--or attempting the sometimes dicey pass across the baseline to the other corner. This is a minor quibble, and sometimes the offense just collapses like "a flan in a cupboard", to quote Eddie Izzard, necessitating some seemingly ill-advised dribbling.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Trey Burke And Those Who Are Not Trey Burke":

Burke--The heading for this section has probably never been more apropos than after this performance. Burke's defensive performance against Jordan Taylor was impressive, but the freshman scored a third of the team's points en route to essentially putting the team on his back last night when it counted. He flashed some range that I previously thought only Vogrich had, hitting a trey from the top of the key while standing just in front of the edge of the M at half court. Twenty points on 8/11 shooting (3/6 from 3), including two steals and two blocks (!) on the defensive end, make for arguably the most impressive performance for the young freshman to date. He did get a little dribble-happy around the perimeter at times, but, like I said, I think that was more a product of the offense just not doing anything and the pick and roll being mostly ineffective (from what I remember) after a few instances of success in the first half. If this was hockey, I'd give Trey, the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd stars for this one. Rod Beard asked the question during the game, but I think the answer is pretty obvious: Trey Burke is our best player. I've mentioned this before, but Burke often reminds me of a poor man's Derrick Rose, and a poor man's Rose is still far richer than whatever most teams in college basketball are trotting out.

Hardaway--Another rough performance from the field from THJ. The fact that we won in spite of this is encouraging...I have to think that the light will go on eventually. THJ's early struggles seem to weigh on him in a fashion that affects his play for an extended period of time, leading to a feedback loop that pushes him to take tough perimeter shot after shot. When he did attack the rim, good things happened more often than not (4/4 from the FT line). With that said, he did score two clutch buckets in crunch time, and that's what counts when the dust settles. He also didn't seem to be 100% after coming up a little gimpy early in the game, so take that FWIW.

Novak--Another gritty performance for the Mayor of Gritville (population: Zack Novak). Ten points on 4/8 shooting (2/5 from 3), including two very impressive 2s. The first was his classic jump stop move past a defender in what seemed like a hopeless situation, resulting in an easy bunny. The second, a fadeaway near the elbow with the shot clock running out and a man in his face that dropped in without touching the rim. Tremendous. Only one foul in a game such as this is another point against benching him in future in two early foul scenarios.

Douglass--Got the start over Smotrycz and it appeared to be the right decision. Stu is a limited player in a lot of respects, but his experience was an obvious asset, especially considering that he logged 36 minutes compared to Evan's 10. Nine points on 3/6 shooting (1/3 from 3) four boards and yet another steal lead me to believe that he should continue to start as we head into the Stretch of Doom of the schedule.

Morgan--Honestly, given MSU's size, this was not a game that Morgan would likely have had a lot of offensive success. He did look good early on the pick and roll with Burke, which was encouraging. Was fed a couple other times as well, including one instance when he was unable to convert on that little hook shot in the lane that he often makes. Only four points, but it's very good to see him get involved early instead of being mostly invisible until the second half. I'd like to see us continue to get him involved as such. Despite the Spartans dominating the boards, I thought he held his own defensively (he did also contribute a clutch block of Appling on the final possession, an underrated play in that entire sequence).

Vogrich--A pair of boards, as well as an impressive reverse layup that I didn't think he had in him. Bench minutes were hard to come by in this game, which is going to be pretty unsustainable down the stretch if Michigan doesn't want the starters to wear down considerably. Not much of an offensive impact but he continues to grab some boards and generally not do anything stupid with his minutes. Overall, I've been pretty pleased with his play of late.
Smotrycz--It's fitting that somebody should enter the doghouse for a game in which one Lloyd "Doghouse" Carr was sitting right next to the Michigan bench. It's hard to say how permanent this move will be, but given the lackluster performance at Iowa, and Stu's generally positive play last night, I think he should continue to come off of the bench, working his way back up to more regular minutes. He did flash some quick hands, snatching the ball from a Spartan big twice; did turn it over on the first one while bringing it up the floor on the break, as he is wont to do. Again, he needs to learn what he can and can't do; there's no shame in knowing one's limitations. In the game of basketball, knowing what those are, even if it depresses the ol' stat line, gets you minutes and, eventually, out of the doghouse. On the positive side, he did have two nice takes to the basket, one resulting in a 3-point play. When the 3s aren't falling, we need him to do more of this. His handles aren't good enough yet to be taking it out in the open floor or anywhere in the middle of the floor, really, but he has been surprisingly effective off the dribble from the wing.
McLimans--A bit surprised to only see him get 2 minutes, particularly given MSU's size across the board. I guess it's just a product of the game being close, but, as I mentioned in the Iowa recap, I'd like to see him get a few more minutes, especially in light of Horford's continuing absence.

Michigan-Iowa: You Know They Left Me In An Alley, Took My Money and My Guitar Too

2012-01-16T06:00:00.008-05:00

Michigan 59, Iowa 75

via Parks and Meth

It seems that predicting things is not my forte...Phil Steele I am not. I assumed that Michigan had progressed to the point that losses like this wouldn't happen, but I look around the conference and see the Spartans dropping one at Welsh-Ryan and the Hoosiers losing at home to a bottom-third of the conference Minnesota squad and feel a little bit better, but, not by much.

This one will be a little bit shorter and less comprehensive than the other recaps because there are only so many ways you can express "That was bad" while not being completely annoying. Also, there was a certain point in the second half when I was paying more attention to the Hawks-Wings game playing on my computer, and that in and of itself says something.

Of course, there is nowhere else to logically start but Beilein's adherence to the "two fouls and it's off to Siberia for you" game theory nugget. As Ace mentioned on Twitter, Burke is averaging 1.8 fouls a game. Sort of like the "would it have really changed things?" question vis-a-vis Jarrett Lee in the MNC game, there's no way of knowing if Burke not sitting out for as long as he did would have resulted in a win or even a competitive second half. With that said, Michigan was down four when he went out and went on to enter the half with a 10-point deficit. It was never really a game at any point in the second half, either. As much time as I've spent fretting about Burke's heavy minutes in the non-conference, seeing a miniscule by comparison "27" next to minutes played on his stat line--paired with 19 points in that short time--is a little bit frustrating. This is the game in which Beilein's propensity to bench on sight when a player accumulates 2 fouls becomes somewhat of a problem. If Michigan is a team with quality depth, then maybe this isn't a problem; alas, they are not that team. This tactical choice is the basketball analogue of punting from the opponent's 35.

Point the second: the offense and Jordan Morgan. I understand that Morgan is not a pure, back to the basket scoring threat, and he likely never will be. The Wolverines will have to wait for Mitch McGary's arrival to have that as an option. While Morgan has his issues with the ball in his hands, there have been too many games--to the point that it is an out and out trend and not just a product of the "flow" of a given game--where Morgan will only have a couple field goal attempts well into the game. The offense needs to get him involved in some way other than hoping he gets some easy put backs. Iowa's Aaron White, who I thought was Iowa's closest thing to a Jordan Morgan type player, scored 12, largely on the back of 10 attempts from the FT line. There's no reason why Morgan can't be involved in that way. I hate resorting to sports cliches, but Morgan is a player that seems to desperately need to see the ball go in before he starts believing in himself. Otherwise, he is generally invisible, partly due to his skill set but also because he just doesn't see the ball unless it is careening off of the rim after an ill-advised three.

Point the third: road games. In the Middle Ages, serfs commonly never traveled outside of a tiny slice of land throughout the course of their entire lives. While this was the case for a number of reasons--one being that feudal lords were kind of like the University of Texas of their time, personified--one was that the outside world was a dangerous, warring place, and venturing out into it was often as imprudent and likely to yield misfortune as a life of continued miserable agricultural servitude would. The aforementioned was a stupid analogy indeed. Hitting the road has been a dicey proposition for Michigan (as is the case for most teams, even really good ones), but we will have to grab a few road wins at some point in order to keep our heads above water.

As I said in the preview, road wins are quality wins no matter the opponent. This was especially true against an Iowa team that has given us problems of late. No game on the schedule is a gimme (except maybe Nebraska?), and Michigan will need to really bring it against the dregs of the conference if they want to avoid the horrible fate of missing out on a tourney bid. I'm not saying that's a likely outcome whatsoever, but I think Michigan's top 15 ranking has lulled us into a sense of deservedness that just doesn't line up with reality. What happens tomorrow night in Crisler will go a long way toward determining what sort of team we'll be watching the rest of the way.

Player Bullets, Also Known As "Trey Burke And Those Who Are Not Trey Burke":

Burke--Insert the aforementioned benching rhetoric. Otherwise, scored the ball relatively efficiently given his minutes, scoring 19 and going 5/6 from 2. Three-point shooting continues to be mediocre, as he went 2/7 from beyond the arc. The much-circulated talking point among various personalities proclaiming that Burke>Morris because of the ability to shoot might be losing a tiny bit of traction, although Trey is still shooting 34% as opposed to Darius's 25% last season. Also, only had 3 assists (Michigan had nine total, compared to Iowa's 18). We are not going to win like that. Morris's ability to simply create space via his frame and a sheer force of will is becoming increasingly missed as the offense completely bogs down from time to time.

Hardaway--After a strong performance from outside against Northwestern, THJ reverted to his previous shooting form, going a turrible 0/8 from 3 and 2/13 overall. The gripes continue to be the same re: THJ's game. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if conference-wide scouting reports tell defenders to sag and dare THJ to take the three from now on. A brief 2-minute period in the second half in which THJ made three trips to the line, with a dunk in that span, gave me hope that he was deciding to enter SEARCH AND DESTROY mode. Unfortunately, that did not happen. THJ's affinity for the 3 is akin to a bag of Costco brand cheesy poofs that aren't very good but your hand keeps going in the bag regardless and then 30 minutes later you realize you've eaten the entire bag and approximately 3,000 calories in the process and your fingers are tinged orange no matter what cleaning agents you use to eliminate it and OH HOW DID THIS ALL HAPPEN SO FAST.

Novak--Ace mentioned on Twitter that there was a play where Zack seemed to be "loafing"...the game is a haze and I don't remember the play in question, but, if true, RUN TO THE HILLS. If Zack Novak isn't being gritty at all times then we have no shot. However, an efficient output of fourteen points on 5/10 shooting (4/8 from 3) might be the lone bright spot of this game.

Smotrycz--A true clunker of a performance, as if this game was meant to be held up as a hyperbolic example of the infrastructural flaws in Evan's game. Smotrycz's stock has crashed precipitously, not unlike Notre Dame football after Week 2 this season. He has become an "X factor," and not in a good way. Rather, his performances have been either "really bad" or "really good" as opposed to steady with occasional bouts of brilliance. We need him to be the latter. Michigan simply has no chance against anybody with Evan putting up a goose egg and THJ going 0/8 from 3.

Morgan--Frustrating to say the least. As mentioned, he will never be a pure post-up threat, but he will never improve upon his admittedly limited bag of tricks if we don't get him the ball in some form or fashion.

Douglass--I kind of want to stop talking about this game but I guess I might as well just hunker down and finish this post. He went 3/6 from the field (2/3 from 3), which is nice if he can keep it going with a modicum of consistency. This might be the time to give him some retroactive praise that I forgot to give him in the Northwestern recap; he did an excellent job defending Drew Crawford. Crawford had a much tougher time after THJ rotated off of him. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or not, but he is definitely our best defender. I just wanted to make sure I said that after looking back and realizing that I was maybe overly harsh on his performance last Wednesday.
Vogrich--Zero points, 1 attempted three. Did grab three boards in his continuing quest to be a sneakily effective rebounder.
McLimans--Am I irrational in saying that I'd like to see him get a few more minutes? Not that he's an overwhelming force on either end of the floor, but, he is tall. HE'S TALL, GUYS. When Smotrycz and Morgan comprise the entirety of your team's relevant bigs, you're kind of in trouble. The sky is blue, water is wet, and so on.