Simi Valley Home Sales have been moving along at a similar pace and not much has changed. Inventory is still extremely low. There really is not much new to report in that the Tax Credits, low interest rates and low inventory are producing false positives for the news media to feed off.

Simi Valley Single-Family Detached activity up through November 30, 2009 was as follows:

• Total Detached Homes Sold = 80
• Average Sale Price = $460,636
• Average Market Time = 81 days

Of these sold properties – 11 were short sales and 18 were foreclosures. The remaining 51 were non-distressed sales.

New listings  coming on the market have already have slowed considerably as seller wait till after the holidays to make a decision whether to list or stay put.

Simi Valley Town Homes & Condominiums activity up through November 30, 2009 was as follows:

• Total Attached Homes Sold =15
• Average Sale Price = $278,514
• Average Market Time = 95 days

Of these attached properties sold, 4 homes were short sales and 5 homes were foreclosures. The remaining 6 homes were non-distressed sales.

Up through February has been typically slow for the Simi Valley  Real Estate market and this year should follow pace as it has over the last 10 years.  Any increase in inventory and buyer activity is welcome.

Factors that will continue to heavily influence this market are:

• LOW INVENTORY
• LOW INTEREST RATES
• FEDERAL & STATE TAX CREDITS

Why I believe the market cannot sustain any serious increase in pricing:

• Monthly Payments
• Lending requirements

Since I have not talked much about the last two items let look at how these will seriously affect the market over the next few years.

Monthly Payments - Buyers today will buy in their monthly payment comfort zone.  If $2,200 per month is the budget for a buyer, then the ultimate purchase price is tied to interest rates.  If the rates go down or stay low then the buyer can afford a larger purchase price, if the rates go up then the buyer will have to change their expectations in the home they plan to purchase or wait to see if the selling prices soften and lower to their affordable payment range.

Lending Requirements – Since the liars loans are a thing of the past, buyers will need to prove income and their ability to repay.  No longer will buyers be able to qualify so high above their real purchasing level, that they will artificially  drive pricing up.

The value increases in homes will be tied to what Buyers can afford spend on their monthly payment, in which the bank will no longer turn a blind eye to income.

What we need to help move this stalemate along is employment which in turn means that government will have to create a climate in California to keep business from moving outside the state. The uncertainty of employment is a big key to our problems and one that needs attention.

Updates from Prior Months can be found:

Market Updates

Should you sell your Simi Valley home during the holidays?

There are several positions on whether home Sellers should consider selling their homes or if their home is already listed, continue trying to sell their home throughout the holiday season.

The annual real estate agent hibernation generally starts the week after Halloween and carries on until Super Bowl Sunday. Many brokers and office managers can confirm the decrease of real estate agent  activity during this time. I believe this to be a defeatist approach by the agents that simply pull back activity during November, December and January.

The 4 reasons why I believe the Holidays are a good time to Sell your Simi Valley Home are:

1. Many people improve and finish home projects have been they have been procrastinating on now that relatives and friends are coming to visit for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
2. The festive decorations of the fall and winter can make a home look warm and inviting.
3. The wonderful aromas of holiday cooking can make your home even more attractive.
4. Buyers at this time tend to be more serious.

Really thinking about how attractive your home will be as decorated for the holidays and how good it will smell is easy-to-understand. But, consider the buyers who are out of this time looking at homes instead of shopping and partaking in holiday cheer.

This time of year, buyers searching for Simi Valley homes may be taking advantage of the slow work environment to purchase a home or a possible relocation prior to the new year. With all the holiday activities parties and shopping, anyone out looking for a home during the holidays tend to be a more serious buyer.

So if you’re considering putting your Simi Valley home on the market the holiday season, this could be a great opportunity as other homeowners wait till the new year to list their homes and some competing sellers take their home off the market till the new year. This creates lower inventory and less competition for your home among the more serious buyer pool. Go ahead get out your decorations, cooked those great holiday treats and enjoy your festivities because maybe your prospective buyer will too.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!
Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty
Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,
specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate
(805) 432-7705

Unemployment Numbers without the Spin

This clever Youtube video explains how the unemployment rate really does not address the real number. We are in interesting times.

The unemployment figures the news reports form the government do not include:

• Those not in the Labor Market
• Those marginally in the Labor Market
• Those how work Part Time just bring in some money while looking for full time replacement.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Simi Valley California home sales were down in October 2009. This is very interesting in that the market has been pushed in a positive direction by the first-time home buyers tax credit. In  September and October buyers knew that the tax credit was scheduled to expire on November 30, this should have reflected in an increase in sales. So far, November sales of single-family detached homes will be stronger than October. Looking closer at these November sales, the majority are in the entry-level price range making this increased activity for November closely tied to the tax credit.

With the extension of the tax credit moved to April 30, 2010, activity should remain brisk as buyers try to take advantage one final time.

Key factors including the affordability, low interest rates, and low inventory are keeping first-time buyers and the investor market very interested in home purchases. While the economy struggles both nationally, statewide and regionally; home buyers and home sellers should be aware that any recovery will most likely be drawn out over a course of years and fairly bumpy from here on out.

What this means for Simi Valley home sellers is that equity recovery is probably not around the corner, but the low inventory levels are helping sellers remain with a slightly stronger negotiating position over the buyers.

What this means for Simi Valley home buyers is that this high level of affordability will continue to create competition for the low supply of inventory.

You’ll notice below that I’m changing the format of my standard monthly market update for Simi Valley home sales. While the averages from the multiple listing service are interesting, if you’ve seen the charting I have posted over the last year, those averages are skewed as the lower end of the market is behaving much differently than the upper end.

Simi Valley single-family detached activity up through October 31, 2009 was as follows:

• Total  Detached Homes Sold = 60
• Average Sale Price = $460,845
• Average Market Time = 82 days

Of these sold properties  – 11 were short sales and 12 were foreclosures. The remaining 38 were non-distressed sales.

• Total  Detached Homes Active For Sale = 183

Of these active properties, 25 were short sales and 11 were foreclosures. The remaining 147 were non-distressed sales and an additional 270 homes were in escrow, with 173 of those Detached homes as short sales and 33 foreclosures.

An evident monthly trend is the extremely high ratio of  detached homes in escrow compared to available inventory and actual closed sales. This further points to the difficulty sellers are having with short sales. To understand why there is such a high failure rate on short sales  please see my article: What Is a Short Sale And Can I Short Sell My House

Simi Valley Town Homes & Condominiums are reacting better and this trend is most likely tied to the low interest rates, affordability  and the first-time home buyer tax credit.

• Total Attached Homes Sold = 25
• Average Sale Price = $277,907
• Average Market Time = 93 days

Of these attached properties sold, 6 homes were short sales and 4 homes were foreclosures. The remaining 15 homes were non-distressed sales.

• Total Attached Homes Active For Sale = 50

Of these Attached Active Properties, 15 were short sales and 2 were foreclosures. The remaining 33 were non-distressed sales and an additional 133  Attached Simi Valley homes in escrow with 63 as short sales and 12 as foreclosures.

Both in the attached and detached Simi Valley housing sectors these high numbers of short sales are very important to track. Month after month after month, large numbers of homes in escrow have been dominated by short sellers. An average of 80 single-family detached homes are closing escrow each month and 18 attached homes closing.  The large volume of nonperforming loans and bad assets are not dominating the low closing rates and seeing that less than 50% of the monthly sales are distressed properties, the low success rate in purging the market of the short sales, will keep any recovery slow.

For more information please see:

• Simi Valley Market Reports
• September 2009 Market Report
• August 2009 Market Report
• 2008 Year End Market Report
• Inconsistent Housing Market News

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

Looking for inexpensive ways to make your Simi Valley home more attractive for buyers?

But wait a minute, aren’t homes selling with multiple offers, bidding wars and buyers being left out? Certainly in the lower price ranges homes are selling quickly and with multiple offers; however, homes in all price ranges with serious deferred maintenance and other issues are being scrutinized by buyers and sometimes left on the market.

A factor that has become glaringly obvious is that homes in the lower price ranges that do not sell in the first 30 to 60 days end up with a scarlet letter that causes buyers to be very cautious before proceeding.

So what can you do to get your Simi Valley house ready and not have it cost you a fortune?

Curb appeal – First Impressions are important in any market. What does your house say when buyers drive by?

There are two categories under curb appeal in which to view your home.

First is the landscaping

Trees are the most overlooked and poorly planned landscaping item at most homes. Many times the tree species was too large for the yard to begin with or was misplaced in the yard. There are what I call the “volunteers”, these are the trees that are grown from seeds that are deposited in your yard from bird droppings. Most of these volunteer type trees are fast growing deep rooted and destructive, as the birds sit on rain gutters, utility lines, roof edges fences and deposit the seeds where they grow and breakup sidewalks, perimeter walls and fences, impact foundations, grow up against the roof, and rub up against the house. I’ve seen were large trees over the course of years have rubbed the stucco color coat off the side of homes.

Most home owners do not understand that when they plant a tree in their yard, that will need to be pruned and maintained every few years. If not, they will overgrow and create far more costlier problems than the cost to prune and maintain the trees. See this example of how a poorly placed and improper species planting in my yard by the previous owner created a big time maintenance issue. Trees and Overhead Power Lines

Overgrown shrubs and trees negatively impact the growth of your lawn as fallen leaves and lack of sun kill off portions of the lawn. Trimming the trees and shrubs will make a huge difference in the appearance of your home.

Make sure that all dead branches are removed from the trees and that the trees are pruned and thinned. Check the shrubs and planters removing old worn-out plants and weeds. Any shrubs that are growing up and blocking Windows and pathways need to be cut back. If you enjoy potted plants, make sure that you are not overcrowding the front of your house and even the front doorway with too many potted plants.

Depending on the season, after you get your yard cleaned up, perennial flowers such as lavender, gold strum, daisies, asters, chrysanthemums or hibiscus can be picked up at places like the Simi Valley Home Depot, Lowe’s or the Do It Center in flats very inexpensively.

If the time of year is right to bring in some new plants and color, make sure your sprinkler system is working.

Second is the exterior appearance of your Simi Valley house.

• The condition of your roof - If your roof is visible and made of composition shingles, consider a tuneup for these types of roof systems 10 or more years old. A roofer can install new Ridge caps, check and seal roof Jack flashings, chimney flashings, and drip edge flashings. If your roof has turbine venting these can be checked adjusted and or replaced if necessary. On my house I had all the equipment, pipes and the flashing painted a matching brown. The new Ridge caps and freshly painted vents made my 15 year old roof look almost new. Fascia boards and the eaves with peeling and worn-out paint provide perfect attack points for wood destroying organisms such as dry rot and termites. Unprotected wood in the Southern California sun can be damaged quickly. Along with the fascia boards and eaves, the trim around the Windows and doors may need attention too.
• The front door - If your door is dirty and the paint is still intact, dust, shoe marks, and handprints should be cleaned off the door. If the paint or finish is peeling and/or worn off, the door should be repainted. Make sure any screen doors, door bells and most importantly the doorknob and deadbolt are all in working order and not in disrepair. Also any keys you have made for the realt0r lockboxes should work without any problems. After a number of years, continual copies of keys can create difficult to open locks. A locksmith can come adjust the locks or you if you are handy, take the locks and deadbolts  to a locksmith to have them keyed alike with a new key combo; which will generally charge approximately $10 per cylinder to have re-key.

After sprucing up the trim and front door you may want to wash the stucco and/or siding and any cobwebs in the eaves. If the stucco or siding is in poor condition repair and paint may be needed.

In the order of things to do here is how I would tackle my own Simi Valley home.

1. The front door-paint and/or clean and adjusts the locks.
2. Shrubs and planters-cleanup, spruce up and add color.
3. Trees-remove volunteers that have grown up too close to the house or fences.
4. Trees-prune overgrown trees that are blocking the view of the house.
5. Roof tuneup-replace Ridge caps.
6. Roof tuneup-paint flashings.
7. Cleanup, repair and paint exterior of home,

Depending on the interior condition of the home, maybe only several of the above items need to be taken care. An overall budget and plan for the interior and exterior preparation of your home needs to be compared to any kind of improvement of sale price you can anticipate for your home.

While the above outline has many items, you may have a home that only needs a few of the minor items dealt with before your home is placed on the market.

Put yourself in the shoes of a buyer and try to look at your house as a buyer would, critical, concerned and looking for issues that might aid their negotiations. Tackle those issues now and take those items off the negotiating table.

If you’d like a free evaluation of your home’s condition I’d be happy to come over and go through your home and give you some tips and ideas on how to improve that first impression.

For more tips and ideas see:

• 14 Ways to make the most of your curb appeal
• Get Buyers excited about seeing your Pasadena Home
• First Impressions in Real Estate

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

The lunatics have taken over the asylum. (CNBC video interview at end of this post)

Beside being the song title of a 1980s new wave band (Fun Boy Three), the title of this post may be more accurate than even I realize.

I follow the papers, several blogs including Calculated Risk, Square Feet Blog, industry blogs such as Inman and it is clear to me that the newspapers blow with the wind.  One day everything is great and the next day everything is terrible.  My industry sources, such as trade associations and even companies like Dataquick are too quick to create sensational headlines that are almost as obnoxious as the newspapers.  I have been telling my clients for long time now that this is going to be a long recovery and bumpy along the way.  There is opportunity in every market – even this market; it just takes determination and persistence.

For example, just two days ago, Dataquick’s headline from their own website is “Southern California Home Sales Increase“. While the over all article does a pretty good job explaining what’s been happening, I think it’s still tries to paint a rosy picture prematurely. While certain sections of Southern California are reacting better than others, the Simi Valley housing market is still below pace for any type of stable or normal market.

Looking at some of today’s headlines we see “Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Versus Unemployment Rate” and “Strong Dollar, Weak Data Pummels Stocks” and “Three-Month Treasury Bill Yields Turned Negative“. Yet the desire to cheer-lead back or will back the real estate market will appear in a conflicting article in the next few days.

What is extremely important for Simi Valley home buyers and home sellers is to understand at this time is,  any claim of a recovery or stabilization, is just more premature thought or whistling in the dark. There’s still plenty of bad venom in the mortgage markets and housing markets that need to work through the system before we can see substantial relief.

Low inventories have favored sellers and low interest rates have enticed buyers, a long-term strategy in residential real estate is probably a safer play.  The entry-level housing combined with the historically low interest rates has created affordability for a large segment of the market. The upper level housing has not mirrored the entry level housing.

We know there are still record numbers of bad loans, mortgages not being paid on time, adjustable mortgages getting ready to reset, modification programs, short sales, and foreclosures being held off the market; that the fragile environment created by government intervention ,the banking industry’s manipulation of inventories and interest rates can only be sustained for a limited amount of time.

The economy grew for a long time based on unsustainable consumer spending tied not to discretionary income, but rather to home-equity spending. Now that home equity spending has been cut off and credit lines are being closed and reduced, the consumer spending Wall Street is waiting for will not return. This all trickles down through the economy affecting jobs and housing.

While the headlines will continue to seesaw consider the information in this interview on CNBC with Meredith Whitney.

CAUTION, CAUTION, CAUTION is all I have to say.  Do your research,  a smart buy or move up purchase can be found in this market as long as you keep your ear to the ground.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

What is a short sale? A short sale occurs when the seller of a property owes more money against that property than what they can ultimately sell the property for.

Example,   you have a $500,000 loan against your property, but now it is only worth $400,000. Adding the costs to sell your property at $400,000, including any/all other existing debts against that property (property taxes, homeowners association dues, or any other liens);  the bank that holds your loan would have to agree to taking less than $400,000 against the $500,000 loan.

From the example above, it is easy to see that both you the property owner and the bank (your lender), are both in a tough situation. At this point the bank has to evaluate it’s position, your complete circumstances, and how they may mitigate their losses.

One of the bigger myths is that because the bank has a bad  asset or nonperforming asset, the bank has no choice but to capitulate to the demands of buyers because the bank has either already written off the bad asset or cannot carry the nonperforming asset for a long period of time.

For the last year we have had inventory shortages while the banks have had record nonperforming loans go to foreclosure or short sale. or try a modification program.  The banks appear to be controlling the flow of inventory as to not flood the market and not sink prices any farther.

Since the banks are not quick to cut their losses on their nonperforming loans, it is important to understand if a short sale is the right option for you? It’s really easy for a real estate agent to convince you to put your home for sale and lock you into a six month contract. However, without properly evaluating your situation, you could become that agent’s indentured servant in an unbreakable contract.

Before making the decision to try and sell your home with a short pay option, it is imperative to figure out what the probability is to sell your home short.

The following issues are important and can increase chances of your lender agreeing to a short sale:

• You experienced a real hardship and can you prove it (i.e. health, employment)
• You property is marketable and it does not have deferred maintenance or show poorly.
• After figuring all the costs of the sale there a minimum of 10% of the value of the second lien holder or most junior lien holder(s).
  • If not, can you contribute some money or would you be willing to sign a promissory note?
• You have more than one loan or they both with the same name holder.
• You can provide all documents necessary as required by your lender in a timely manner?
• If a notice of default is filed on your property, your lender allow you time to sell your property.
• You are not presently in bankruptcy or planning to file bankruptcy.

The following issues can hurt your chances of your lender agreeing to a short sale:

• You do not have legitimate hardship.
• You have not missed any payments on your loans and are presently current on payments. (If you are current this is not advise to default or make late payments)
• There’s not enough money to pay off your first loan and you still have junior liens.
• You are in bankruptcy.
• You completed a recent cash out refinance
• You cannot provide full documentation for your hardship package.
• You have liens or judgments with a private party.
• There is an notice default and your lender will not give you time to sell.
• You or your real estate agent priced your home dramatically under market value.

All the above conditions are not a definitive list of who can and who cannot successfully sell their home with a short pay option, it is a good outline to begin a plan. There are many complex legal and tax consequences associated with the conditions above. Nothing contained above is intended to be legal or tax advice. If you plan to short sell your home, you will need to contact attorneys, tax professionals and/or CPAs.

Last, the personnel in the loss mitigation departments at the banks across the country are overwhelmed and swamped with more than 75 files on their desks, sometimes over 100. They have little incentive to cooperate on a short pay. Complete thorough documentation, updated regularly and contact with the loss mitigator assigned to your file, several times a week throughout the process, is only part of what it takes to get a short sale approved. If you plan to go down the short sale path, persistence and tenacity must prevail throughout the process.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!

Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty

Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,

specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate

(805) 432-7705

That’s right Simi Valley home buyers, the tax credit is waiting for Obama’s signature. The tax credit legislation passed the House today in a 403 to 12 vote. The Senate vote was 98 to zero.  This time around there a few additions, these are pointed out in my video blog below. One thing I did not cover was the income limitations which have been raised to $125,000 for single buyers and $225,000 for couples, from the prior limits of $75,000 and $150,000, respectively. To curb any abuse of those claiming the credit, the claimants must attach proof of purchase to their tax return.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!
Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty
Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,
specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate
(805) 432-7705

Don’t miss the 1st Annual Simi Valley SnowFest on Sunday November 8th.  This new event runs from 10:00 am to 4:00 pm as a kick off for the holiday season. This event is organized and run by the Rancho Simi Recreation and Park District, at the Rancho Santa Susanna Community Park in Simi Valley located near Stearns and Los Angeles Ave across from the Metrolink station.

The park district will be bringing in equipment to manufacture several tons of snow for sledding and winter play. The Simi Valley SnowFest is also an arts and crafts fair so there be plenty of activities for the whole family to enjoy. This is a free event so bring the kids down for a great Time on Sunday.

CLICK to ENLARGE this Chart

Simi Valley Housing Market Update YTD September 30, 2009

Simi Valley Home Sales are following the typical pattern we’ve seen over the last several months. Home sales are still below prior year levels and the impact of the first-time home buyer tax credit, historically low inventory, historically low interest rates continue to drive the entry-level end of housing. I posted a colorful chart which shows the bulk of the sales still are under 500,000.  What has been surprising is, as I went back over June, July and August there were additional closings that wee reported late which move those numbers up.  We’re still averaging about 80 sales a month for 2009 but with the new information the summer months were more stable than indicated prior to the late reporting.

If you are a Simi Valley home buyer the market still poses obstacles for those looking to purchase homes under $500,000. We are seeing competition for these homes in the form of large down payments and multiple buyers.

In reviewing the Simi Valley home sales from January 2009 through September 2009, approximately 65% of all homes sold in Simi Valley were purchased with conventional financing, another 10% with all cash offers.  This leaves approximately 25% of the sales using VA or FHA low down payment financing.   What this means for future home buyers is that your competition will not only be the low inventory, it will be other buyers with higher down payments. While an FHA or VA loan can bring the same offer price to a seller, sellers tend to feel more comfortable with higher down payment conventional loans than their FHA or VA counterparts. Also sellers who have homes with any deferred maintenance could  obstacles for FHA or VA financing over those maintenance items.

If you are a home seller to low inventory, low interest rates and the tax credit has definitely created interested buyers. If your home is below $500,000 to low inventory is created fewer competing homes for potential buyers to view. What is interesting about this market is that if your home is over $500,000 low inventory becomes less and less a factor as the price of your home movies up. In fact earlier charts have posted show inventory surpluses in the homes that are in the 700,000 $1 million range.

Part of my day involves completing Broker Price Opinions for several area banks. A  “BPO” is requested by banks trying to value distressed properties on their asset sheets. My task for the bank is to evaluate the property they have given me by locating closings and listings in the area that will give the bank an idea of the value of the subject property. I’m completing BPO’s for Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Westlake, Agoura, Hidden Hills, Calabasas, Woodland Hills, West Hills, Chatsworth, Tarzana, Canoga Park, Winnetka, Northridge, Porter Ranch, Reseda and Encino. I have completed close to 200 in the last 12 months.

This look into the values of properties and surrounding areas shows interesting trends in the general market from entry level to high end. The trends I have been reporting on in Simi Valley are seen in these other areas.

A number of issues remain unresolved for the market from here going out, there is discussion in Washington DC to extend the first-time buyer’s tax credit and also open the tax credit to existing homeowners however this has not been voted on or finalized by the House or Senate. Any hikes in interest rates over 6% or higher will impact buyer payments as well. There are still record amount of loans in trouble, foreclosed properties and the unemployment levels will have lingering effects on the market over the next couple of years.

There are big advantages in purchasing a home in this market if the purchase is not an impulse buy. Affordability is at the highest levels in a very long time combined with low interest rates, Simi Valley home buyers have a great opportunity to make a smart buy.

Thanks for reading Simi Valley’s Premiere Real Estate Blog!
Author – Ted Mackel Simi Valley Real Estate Agent – Keller Williams Realty
Ted Mackel is a top producer at Keller Williams Realty Simi Valley,
specializing in Simi Valley Real Estate
(805) 432-7705