Copper West Insider

How's my neighborhood holding up?

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 01:30:00 +0000

This from the Portland Real Estate Outsider, via the RMLS......I'm not sure if Mt. Hood includes the Columbia River area, but that looks right if you consider just Oregon, and just last year.....January was rough, and I think there's some trailing effect we haven't seen yet, but are into now...............

Click HERE for the larger version

Expanded Tax Break Available for 2009 First-Time Homebuyers

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 18:45:00 +0000

IR-2009-14, Feb. 25, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service announced today that taxpayers who qualify for the first-time homebuyer credit and purchase a home this year before Dec. 1 have a special option available for claiming the tax credit either on their 2008 tax returns due April 15 or on their 2009 tax returns next year.

Qualifying taxpayers who buy a home this year before Dec. 1 can get up to $8,000, or $4,000 for married filing separately.

“For first-time homebuyers this year, this special feature can put money in their pockets right now rather than waiting another year to claim the tax credit," said IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman. “This important change gives qualifying homebuyers cash they do not have to pay back.”

The IRS has posted a revised version of Form 5405, First-Time Homebuyer Credit, on IRS.gov. The revised form incorporates provisions from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The instructions to the revised Form 5405 provide additional information on who can and cannot claim the credit, income limitations and repayment of the credit.

This year, qualifying taxpayers who buy a home before Dec. 1, 2009, can claim the credit on either their 2008 or 2009 tax returns. They do not have to repay the credit, provided the home remains their main home for 36 months after the purchase date. They can claim 10 percent of the purchase price up to $8,000, or $4,000 for married individuals filing separately.

The amount of the credit begins to phase out for taxpayers whose adjusted gross income is more than $75,000, or $150,000 for joint filers.

For purposes of the credit, you are considered to be a first-time homebuyer if you, and your spouse if you are married, did not own any other main home during the three-year period ending on the date of purchase.

The IRS also alerted taxpayers that the new law does not affect people who purchased a home after April 8, 2008, and on or before Dec. 31, 2008. For these taxpayers who are claiming the credit on their 2008 tax returns, the maximum credit remains 10 percent of the purchase price, up to $7,500, or $3,750 for married individuals filing separately. In addition, the credit for these 2008 purchases must be repaid in 15 equal installments over 15 years, beginning with the 2010 tax year.

Lending Horror stories! (And Private Money to the Rescue!)

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 22:24:00 +0000

(This is a repost from Spring of 2008. Get your Last three years Taxes ready, along with a nice heapin helping of patience if you want to buy a home this spring. 60 days to get a loan....ouch)

Ever heard the one about the mortgage broker who blew the financing so that they wouldn't have to honor the lock?

Or how about the one where the lender went bankrupt at closing?

....Or, how about the one where the bank approved the loan, then pulled back at the very last minute, while the parties were sitting in the closing, waiting for documents to be e-mailed in?

Yes, these, and other horror stories are making their way around the offices these days. while some of them will surely become urban legends, we have been noticing an uptick in alternative mortgage strategies. Here's a list of a few of them. (These are actually, very very similar to pre-1998 best practices, BTW, for people who can remember Real Estate from back then.)

1. Find a co-signor. This one is a classic, and becoming back in demand. By co-signing with a family member (usually parents) a young buyer gets to get the credit score of a sibling or parent, and then makes the payment. This was a very common arrangement in years past, and we are seeing it come back.

2. Private Money. Sound Exotic? hardly. It isn't exactly at the bargain basement prices of some mortgages, but you'd be surprised how many people are out there looking to lend money against a Real Estate Asset. Be careful when doing private money deals, because things like remedy, and evidence of payment, etc. can all hurt you alot. Best to get a lawyer to help out, but once everyone is on the same page.....well, these things tend to work out pretty well.

3. Your local bank! Yes, your local bank used to be the only lender in this area, and it is looking like a return to that time is a-comin. get to know your bank manager better. You know how you used to complain about not ever being able to speak to a human at those large mortgage companies, well, now you can speak to a human, only problem is, that human now knows alot about you, so you'd better make sure your payments are current!

The View From Here, February 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 20:10:00 +0000

Every thirty days it seems to change, doesn't it?

The buyers are still here, but they are pooling....waiting for the all clear signal. Unfortunately, no such signal is in the offing.

This month has seen an increase in inventory, (slight) of nicer properties in the Hood River County markets. Some have come off of contract (deals from last fall that cannot find financing) Some are new. In the Mid Columbia as a whole, listings are about the same as last year.

January was brutal from a sales standpoint. Median price in Hood River was still steady, but the Buyers have trickled off. In the region, pending sales are off by a bunch, 40%. In Hood River County that number is just under 30%

In short, we need some confidence boosters.

And speaking of short, I'll keep it short this month. Prices are soft, interest rates are low, the weather is warming up. I can't imagine better conditions to spark some interest, but everyone seems frozen. What will it take?

See you outside! Next time I post a view, it will be warm....Thank goodness, at least we'll all be able to exercise....

The View From Here, January 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 04:32:00 +0000

Happy New Year!

This month has been quiet from a deal point of view, but we sure have been busy with Buyer's activity. Other companies seem to have picked up too, but still others, no sign of any action. My sense is that there's been a shift in the sourcing of our Buyers, and it is disproportionately affecting some companies, and not others in the Hood River Realtors market.

The inventory prediction is coming true. Units are dropping, and the pickings are slim. Nice properties are tough to find. Very few Sellers are coming onto the market because of the weak pricing.

One of the bright spots (and this is twisted) is this. The downturn is starting to hit across so many different sectors of the market that properties that are coming to the market seem to be because of something else, and no longer associated with sub prime.

Commodities trader? Markets have collapsed, sell the home in Hood River. Exporting overseas? Market has collapsed, sell the home in Hood River. Auto dealership closed? Sell your home and move away. Get the drift?

How does that all pan out? decent inventory, but hitting in waves unassociated with sub prime resets, etc. Varied drivers as to motivation, but an interesting selection......I heard the other day, the following comment. "Last year, it was Real Estate that was seen as dragging on the economy. In 2009, The Economy is now dragging on Real Estate"

It's a subtle difference, but it's a big one.

I was talking to a friend this morning as we drove through town. You can't buy a new car in Hood River anymore. All the dealerships are gone. I remarked that we might be returning to the sleepy days of Hood River again (I actually said it wistfully, since I really liked those days) He looked at me and said "I don't think so. I fear that the quieter it gets, the more elite it will get."

There's some truth in that, I'm sure.....

Ok, by the numbers, our values are hanging in there. Down only slightly. There's been an increase in traffic out on the west side, but this seems to be cyclical. Units sold, however, are still down year over year.....by over 30%

This month the Mid Columbia Association of Realtors fees are due. I expect that there will be an exodus of agents and that it will begin this month.

Stay Tuned.

The View From Here, December 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 21:59:00 +0000

Good Riddance 2008!

The market's have really seized up in the last 60 days, as everyone is gripped with uncertainty and angst. So much so, there's not much to write. Some deals are closing, they tend to be of lower price points, that's dragging on the values of the next bracket of prices up ($350 and up to about $500 are experiencing some downward pressure due to low Buyer traffic.) Buyers continue to be offended that they can't "steal" a property, Sellers, by and large, can hold on to their prices (see "underwater Lock Down") and slowly, inventory is starting to scratch the bottom.

So....It's a bit of a stalemate. If it weren't for the amazing interest rates, we'll we'd be in a right fine mess.

So here's to 2009. Remember that comment about making sure your credit score was solid? Remember the comments about the weird underwriting standards?

2009 has that and so, so much more in store. It's going to be a challenging year, but the doomsday scenario is totally oversold, so I expect some firming up after while, perhaps June, with the usual caveats.

The Buyers keep coming, and there's a full raft of them around these days.....the trick is getting them off the sidelines.......If 4.8% won't do it, well, I'm afraid nothing will.

Maybe the warm weather will help. I'll still be here, so don't forget about us!

Happy New Year!

The View From Here, November, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 21:24:00 +0000

Making sense of this market sure isn’t easy in Hood River Real Estate.

There. Now that we have that out of the way, here’s what’s been going on.

Basically, everything is frozen while everyone waits for a signal, ANY signal, that its safe to go out and buy something. There’s still a bit of a Buyer’s “hype-gap” (where the buyer’s show up and expect the entire market to have cratered, and is bummed when they find out that they can’t offer 40% off ask) but there are signs of increasing stress on the sellers, although once the properties dip in price, there seem to be buyers out there willing to respond.

The market is also continuing to thin out. Next spring in Hood River continues to be worrisome due to lack of inventory. At worst, it’s a market stabilizer.

More people want to move to Hood River by the day. A lot of them are still stuck in other transactions, and so here we are, holding, holding, holding…..

As far as Realtor confidence, things remain tenuous. It seems a bit like the offices are stuck in limbo, with no direction, a bit adrift. I refer to it as “gravity-less” where we are all not able to get a bearing on anything but each other. That creates an interesting dynamic, one that will catalyze, probably in the New Year, as Hood River Real Estate Brokers decide whether to stay, or to pack it in for greener pastures.

In 60 days, my guess is there will be about 20% attrition (that’s the PMAR estimate too, by the way) I think this area has over 200 agents…….so 40 agents. Wow.

Interest rates continue to be tough, but will relax here in a bit, I continue to say…”If you like it, buy it” because of my decreasing confidence in any replenishing inventory……….

That’s it for this month. Happy Holidays! My cards go out next Friday……….Don’t you just wish you were getting a pithy card from me…… Wait a minute, many of you are…..

The View From Here, October v.2 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 05:27:00 +0000

Rural Shock, Jumbo Caps and the three words you want to hear………

Yes, things are very fluid at the end of October, 2008. Some would say historic.

While the internet allows us a front row seat to the carnage, there is a pretty sever disconnect down on the street level. Even among the “injured” class, people just see a weekend visit to Rural Oregon as a nice treat.

Traffic, at least, has been strong in Hood River Real Estate, and the weather has been a dream. People are shocked when they come into the office to look at prices, shocked they are holding up so well.

….Which isn’t to say that they are, entirely. There has been a pretty orderly mark-down of properties in the last 45 days, and I expect there will be downside pressure into the Spring. The question is who can hold out that long.

Inventory keeps dropping, and that’s a worrisome sign for me…..mostly it portends a tough, thin market in the spring. I’m still saying to my clients…”If you like it buy it!” but at 6.5%, well, that’s a tough rate to swallow…………

On top of that, the Jumbo Cap is only $417,000 right now. Anything over that, and the cost of your loan skyrockets (think 7%), assuming you could even get it. That will put a damper on properties in the “aspirational affluent” category…….over $750,000.

That makes the following three words music to a transaction………….

Owner. Will. Carry

See you next month. Next up, Credit Cards!

Good Oregonian Article

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 03:33:00 +0000

Check out this article in this weeks Oregonian. It's about the projected growth rate in Oregon. Let's see...... tight inventory, population doubles....

hmmm....

The Problem with Perception. The View from Here, October, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 02:02:00 +0000

*Things are moving so fast, you get two views this month.....*

OK It's fall and I've got time to wonk out about the markets, but you have to admit, it's a pretty incredible time.

On the ground, there's a slight improvement. The near total freeze of a couple of weeks ago has eased, and a few great deals are getting through.

Just for the record, and I really want to be clear on this, because I'm taking alot of heat. The NATIONAL RATE OF FORECLOSURE at September, 2008 was around 7%. That's less than one in ten homes in foreclosure. While that is a historically huge number, it doesn't wipe out multiple International companies with tens of billions of market cap. Credit Default Swaps do.

No, the Community Reinvestment act is not the cause of all this, no matter what the you tube video tells you. "people who can't afford a mortgage" are not the cause of all this, Credit Default Swaps are. Got it? Credit Default Swaps wipe out billions, not small mortgage holders. Small mortgage holders writing down loans make for uncomfortable quarterly reports and analyst phone calls, but they do not wipe out billions and reshape banking in america. Credit Default Swaps do, and none of this is over yet.

Most mortgage holders will still be able to pay, becasue they are not generally parties to a trillion dollars worth of swaps. They may own stock in, or work for a company that does, and that will be unfortunate. By and large, however, most people, especially in a place like Hood River, have a good sense of themselves, and will continue to do so.

Hood River Real Estate County rates an approximate.....are you ready for this? 1 Foreclosure per 1,500 homes. Want to know how many homes there are in Hood River County? About 3,000. The Stat's don't see the granularity, one of those foreclosures on the record actually encompasses a developer with about a couple of lots that were, or are, unplatted, so we could increase that amount a bit, and I know there are others out there, so at a worst case scenario, let's consider it about 10 total. That's rough, to be sure, but it sure isn't ARIZONA.(1 per 250, Honestly) If you think you can pick over the whopping inventory of ten properties, well, good luck. Every client I know is too picky to buy those properties at any price.

Buyers ask me all the time to give them an edge, but the funny thing is, when I point it out to them, many don't take the advantage. Everyone should stop waiting for the "wave of forclosures" because at worst, it might be 20, maybe 50. Of those, not that many will be in the category of properties you would invest in. Meanwhile, unseen in the hype, is the falling inventory. All the nice ones with motivated Sellers are selling now and will soon be gone.......... Until the next wave, but the quality of those properties will wane, and wane. and before too long, demand will outstrip supply, and we'll get going again.

Or we'll all be wearing burlap sacks and clubs, which a friend pointed out to me yesterday, is "definitely now within the realm of not unbelievable....."

See you next month. If it's still there!

The Market Warps.....

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 23:42:00 +0000

You know, you can tell alot about people by which of the Star Trek versions they like. Old or new, Movie or not, Voyager or not.

While I'm partial to Voyager, I'm quite conversant with the Kirk/Pickard timelines. Relevant to Real Estate in Hood River, is the...Time warp, or warping or reality that they often encountered. (although the best version of this is in voyager, but i digress....)

Our market used to have some pretty traditional markers in it. Move out of town, price adjusts. View, price adjusts. quality construction, price adjusts.....

Now, we are really begining to see prices that are breaking away from what would bew considered normal....... There are warps in the valuations in the market, and some of them are looking like good...no great values........

When you consider that over 80% of the economists are saying that prices need to adjust another 20% before we hit bottom, you are beginning to see some properties go there, while others continue to support the current floor. Those further discounted properties are looking like great values today, although they may not be in the future, but even in the worst case scenario they'll be at Par......

Just our luck, Leavening mood, into the Maw of the the New Credit Future....

The View from Here, September 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 23:48:00 +0000

....You really should go back and read my posts from a year ago. It's hilarious.

Well, here we are, deep in the correction. I rolled over last night and for a brief moment in that semi-lucid state, felt what it would be like if the rescue package didn't go through. It was scary. I got up, and have been sitting at my computer since, attempting a pithy write up that makes light of what is truly an unmitigated disaster.

I think the Bailout is morally wrong. I don't care anymore, but enough is enough. That sentiment could cost me my business, but I'm certain people will still need to buy houses, and in what is becoming "no place for old men" our services will still be in demand. (That last quote, by the way was apt, and first used to describe the tearing off of the roof that was last week in the Financial Times. It's sticking.)

Now, something positive about Hood River.....Let's see. If you've read my last couple of posts, they've been observations about why Hood River, and the Northwest is different, but ultimately may still suffer the same fate as the rest of the country. If the people now running fannie mae and freddie mac view the Northwest as "overvalued" because more people want to move here than ever before, well that would just be unfortunate. If some new ratio test related to multiple times median incomes artificially marks us down.....well, I'm uncertain what I can say about that one, but I think it might be in the offing.

The funny part is this, "Underwater Lock Down" is in full effect, and our inventory is shrinking. Properties are selling, and prices are being supported. We've found a floor in this part of the country, because we are becoming, and still are a desirable place to move to. In Hood River County, prices managed a 1% increase, with some downtown neighborhoods still posting strong positives.

Now, next month, you are going to see a drop in value, as the late seasonal mark downs finally close, but overall, this was not that tragic. This big question now is "where's the liquidity going to come from?" Because going forward, it's going to be tough. There's alot of mistrust out there, and it will be very, very difficult to apply regional and local standards to a nationalized product (mortgage secondary market) when it's EXACTLY a regional feature that differentiates our market.....

What's that all boil down to? That's the pithy line I've been looking for. Last year it was "get it gone" I think now I'll point out that there's still alot of "Here, Here" and that when you come to buy a place in our area, remember that we are not a suburb in Nevada, We are Hood River, the place many people want to move to now that things are getting scarier, and scarier. Problem is, in a rush to nationalize our standards, you may no longer be able to.

I'll see you next month.

Defiantly,

Maui

Hood River is not a Suburb in Nevada

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 21:27:00 +0000

More thoughts.......

There's a Case/Schiller index (I think) that points to the Northwest as being "overvalued." Now, I'm going out on a limb here, but the reasoning they use to point out why the Northwest will go down in the future is because "traditionally, the Northwest trails the United States by up to 24 months"

Now, that can often be considered true pre-2000, but I find it hard to believe, in this era of desktop underwriting, and 24 hour news cycles, that the Northwest could be that far behind............

The fact is, in our area at least, those crazy financing vehicles never caught hold, and didn't penetrate as deep into our marketplace as in....say, Arizona or Nevada. Prior to the run up, the Northwest had a very low valuation of housing as a whole, the lowest on the West Coast, if I remember correctly. (I remember that Idaho had alot to do with lowering those values BTW)

Further, cultural shifts have tended towards Northwest strengths, over and over and over these last few years. Outdoor recreation, return to Stewardship based resourced economies, and Regionalism, all play to Northwest strength.

Will I go so far as to say Case/Schiller is wrong? No. I will go so far as to say their lexicon might need to change. Additionally, we have seen a correction, we are just not seeing that gaping maw that is consuming others.

As for Hood River? We don't have those endless rows of cookie cutter housing, and our inventory isn't large, and it's shrinking.....I know there are many people out there who think the bottom is going to fall out, and if the mortgage markets freeze up, it most certainly will, but in that case, no one will be able to buy anything. Then the pundits will be correct, but not able to buy anything.

Hood River is not a suburb in Nevada. The Northwest is not Nevada, looking at a national framework that doesn't consider the tack the Northwest has chosen makes us look like an outlier, to be certain, but not necessarily, wrong. (I would use the term "overvalued" here, in the place of "wrong," but im still not 100% sure. I'm just sayin.....)

The value of your home has nothing to do, with the value of your home.

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 03:41:00 +0000

...I've been posting for a couple of years now, and First started mentioning this breakdown now over a year ago. The scope of this, however........amazes me.

I heard a story a couple of days ago, about the lending market just....stopping last week. No reason, other than fear and uncertainty. Just stopped.

If the ability to borrow money to buy a house goes away, the theoretical value of your home is zero. No market, no buyers. For someon who has to sell, that's a tough place to be in.

And thus, the post. Your home's value right now, has nothing to do with the actual value of your home. It has everything to do the Buyer's ability to get a loan to purchase your home.

Things are so fluid now. These posts are going to be short, quick, and, well....fluid......

Hang on!

"Underwater Lock Down" redux

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:04:00 +0000

****This is a repost of an entry from last year. It explains why people keep on showing up, expecting a bloodbath, and then not finding one. Remember, the reason so many people love Hood River is because, by and large, we move along at our own, simple, easy pace. This can hurt us in times of expansion, but is very helpful in times of contraction.****

...Ok, My phone rang immediately upon that last post with a disgruntled Blog reader. This is what an "underwater Lock Down" is.

In Hood River, your average person buys, or owns a house. They get caught up in some of the market run up hype, but not in the way you might expect. Usually, they take out their new found wealth in the form of a refinance at the higher valuation, but they do not sell. Many of them don't do sub prime but some do. (Figure more than 60% don't) and here's what happens.

Market corrects, but the total negative impact on these people is that their payment is high and they've lost money....but only if they sell their home.

They decide that it's easier to sit tight and pay a couple hundred more dollars a month and wait for the market to recover.....so, they drive their cars a little longer, go out to dine a few less times per year, and generally trim back a touch....but they don't sell.

What does this mean to Real Estate? The these houses do not come to market.....which is effectively a return to the Real Estate market of 1996-2001.........general upside pressure, limited inventory, very little speculation.....

More or less................

And now for something completely different and cooolllll.............

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 00:09:00 +0000

Check our website. We just turned on streetview, and satellite view through google. Now you can see your property from space, or from just in front of the property itself.

Our Website is probably the single most useful tool in the Hood River real estate market at the moment! Click here to check it out.....

Or:

http://www.copperwest.com/

The View from Here, August 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 17:28:00 +0000

I have an alternative version of the View From here for the month of August, and I typed it a couple of weeks ago. This one is different from that one. I'm still feeling a bit whiplashed!

Buyers came back with a vengeance earlier this month. It was, seriously, crazy. There were a bunch of offers written, and you know what happened?

The Sellers told them (well, not all) but alot of them to go away. I called it "Revenge of the Sellers." The Buyers came in with discounted offers, and the Sellers rejected, or countered at full price.

Now there are some upset Buyers out there. And some upset Sellers.

The Buyers think that the Sellers should be happy for any offer, and many (but not all) of the Sellers (and a few quite foolishly I might add) are saying "I don't REALLY have to sell" or " I just can't take less!" (The Latter, I've learned from personal experience, BTW, being a terrible reason to reject or counter an offer in a declining market.....)

For some of the deals we were able to put together, (and this is incredible) A much higher percentage of them were unable to obtain financing! Anywhere!

...And now.....Appraisals are coming in low! Yikes. Never has a Seller been able to exert so little control over a transaction in this town (check out hood river real estate).

The future looks really uncertain, but the Buyers keep piling up, and the market data keeps supporting it. YTD pending sales (Although this is now becoming an inaccurate metric, because more deals are flying apart than ever before) are the same in the Hood River Market, year over year. Average price is up (but this is an anomaly, there are a few, very expensive homes that have sold, and then a flock of lower priced homes, skewing the average price slightly higher.)

Outside the Core Cities, it continues to be rough. Skamania County is down 57% In number of pending sales, with a 3.4% decrease in median sale price, and more to come, I'm sure.

Klickitat is down almost 30% in pending sales with a 4% decrease in median sale price. Some of this could be the composition of the units (More cheaper properties selling because of the difficulty of Buyers qualifying) But it sure looks rough.
There are so many transactional challenges to closing a deal right now, that the only way to compensate is through Seller concession. Right now, it's having less and less to do with the property, and everything to do with the team. And the Down payment. Oh, and the FICO, and the Appraisal.

Have I made my point? See you next month.

The View from Here, July 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 05:40:00 +0000

Well, we hit soft spot.....very slow for the last few weeks! I'm sensing a shift in things, back to a pre 1998 posture. In 1998, August was the busy month in town, not July. It appears that we may be shifting back in that direction this year. We have many indicators that August will be full, while I can honestly say that July was a write off......

The Gorge Games were a bust. The Conventional Wisdom is that more people left town to avoid the Gorge Games than actually showed up. A far cry from the 1200 athletes projected. They did have some cool events, but those seemed to be the aspirational events, and I'm not certain you can make money on an event that way.

I would have to say that I'm unsure about the Fall, although I'm confident in the long term for Hood River. Bouncy times ahead, though.....tougher than I had hoped, but about what I had expected.............

If you are in the market (and there are alot of you) please know that you can wait for the prices to drop more, but it's more about the motivations of the Seller than anytthing else. Certainly it's a Buyer's market, but let's all not overplay our hands......

Now if we could only find a loan.........

The View from here? Choppy, but improving. No, wait, not improving, I'm just getting more used to the choppiness..............

See you next month..

New Website!

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 05:35:00 +0000

Yahoo!

If you haven't seen it yet, head on over to Copperwest.com to take a look at our new website. It's still a work in progress, but I'd say it qualifies as an early Hood River Real Estate web 2.0 product..........

Much of the site is modular, so we will be swapping stuff out over the next year. It allows you to do a cool map search, save properties that you want to track, review broker comments on properties, and then connect with our brokers in a private workspace where you can catalog transaction files, estimate your mortgage, and keep tabs on your transaction.

Soon, we'll be adding Google's streetview to the functionality, as well as satellite view. There really wont be much more you'll need!

Hope you like it........

Blech-

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:46:00 +0000

Fannie and Freddie........Thanks for nothing. If what I'm hearing/reading is true, the cost of borrowing and a MAJOR part of the lending market is about to implode.

The Cost of borrowing money is........about to get a bit tighter......Oh who am I kidding. ALOT tighter. How is it possible that people can be responsible borrowers and lenders, and then STILL get stuck with the bill in a public bailout?

Pressure on housing prices? Just went decidedly negative with that news today. In a world of financial toxic waste, this is a top three kind of hit. Let's just hope they keep it together............

The View from here, June 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 15:03:00 +0000

Well.....still going.

Dallas Fridley, our regional Economist wrote a stellar review of our Real Estate Marketplace. You can find it here.

Dallas does this stuff for a living, and though we are drawing slightly different conclusions, I'm thinking his data set is the county at large, while I'm allowed to be a bit more selective.....(read: I'm drinking my own kool-aid, and focusing on just the immediate Hood River City and surrounds)

Dallas is spot on with Wasco County, and the strength in average sales price in Hood River County, which showed impressive gains in May. (up 4.6% YTD) That's probably seasonal, and the total units sold is still down, but so far, so good.

There's been a RASH of deals this last week, and when I looked at listing numbers, a number I thought was going to explode, I found that it was, actually.....down. Not by much, mind you, but at least, I think we are not having that compounding effect of swelling inventory, and waning closings (read the "overhang overhang" comment from last month)

I wake up one morning, and I think "This is the inflection point" I wake up the next morning, and think...."uh oh" I never can tell what indicators will jump out from day to day.

I will say that the Buyers keep coming in, and people are still buying things, so, if we are selling at 2004-2005 levels in terms of units, and our total volume is only slightly off in the City of Hood River and immediate surrounds....well,

I seen worse.

Talk to you next month. June 28th. The inflection point. (As bad as the Sub Prime fall out is going to get until sometime later next year, when the second wave of it comes due, assuming workouts and bailouts haven't softened the blow.)

What worries me now? food, water and energy. That kind of impact, however, tends to strenghten us, in an area that has it's own food, water and power....

Inventory Check...........

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 19:11:00 +0000

298 in the Hood River Market as of this morning........As I recall, that's over 100 units more than our historical average.....30% ish overhang......

hmmm......Soft sales cycle, inventory building up.........

Why is it I always get to call it in June? Hang on, the next three weeks will be telling...........

Good Reads for June-

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:03:00 +0000

Fortune has a great article about shifting builders styles over at KB homes. Good Read, and a decent overview about the shrinking of the american home and a return to the value of a home as a rent vs. buy decision. We've been pushing that for years, but now, finally, it's getting some press.

NYT also had a great article on the delinquency rate across the Nation. the NW and North Central states all clocked in a nearly normal historical rates (under 3%) while the rest of the country.......awash in rates over 7%.

7%! Are you kidding me! That's crazy. I must be living in a thermos.

Here's the link to the NYT article. It's worth it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/business/06mortgage.html?scp=2&sq=delinquency&st=nyt

Here, WITH FULL CREDIT TO THE TIMES FOR THE GRAPHIC! Is the Graphic from the article......

The View from Here, May 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 17 May 2008 18:22:00 +0000

Hmmm....We've been having some bouncy times lately, and my numbers are a bit rougher this month than last. Still, doable and improving.

There is so much punditry out there right now, and alot of doomsayers, but I'm just not seeing it as apocalyptic as they do. (Rick!)

I've been reading about Portland's "Dead Cat Bounce" meaning their sales numbers, while increasing are still waaaay off from last years, and the rate of improvement is slowing thus....a top in the market for Portland that is much lower in previous years. So I took a look at our market. Here's a couple of things that are immediately apparent.

Mid Columbia Region
1. Number of closed sales are down.
2. Total sales volume down 48%.

Hood River County
1. Number of closed sales are down.
2. Total sales volume is the same.

City of Hood River
1. The Number of closed sales are down.
2. The sales volume is the same.

So there you go, split decision. (Well, not really) The same volume is being split among fewer transactions. One person points to the 20% year over year drop in closed sales(in the last two months, 35% YTD) and the other, promptly points to the dollar volume closed.

The City of Hood River, however, is hanging tough, County, same story. So why is the Region down on dollar volume? Here's why:

Skamania County? Wipeout. Klickitat County, Wipeout everywhere else except White Salmon and Bingen, which got brutalized, but survived by comparison.

I repeat, flight to quality in Hood River. In Hood River, if it's priced that same as last year or lower, and you LIKE THE PROPERTY AND ARE WILLING TO DEAL WITH ITS IMPERFECTIONS.......

BUY IT.

See you next month. Lots of action and things shifting around. I expect we'll see a relative increase in performance in closed sales, and dollar volume in Hood River City and County, as well as an EXPLOSION IN LISTING VOLUME.

At this point, I'm focusing inward on those areas that are the places that will thrive. Close in, Hood River. Right now, much else is a waste of resources......Expect the trend to continue as well, because no one, and I mean no one is lending to buy raw land or large tract, or other similarly unique properties.

Market Stats from April-

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 17 May 2008 17:41:00 +0000

Well, it's a faaaast moving market out there, not in terms of deals (though that is improving) but rather in terms of perceptions, motivations, and friction. Buyers perceive the market to have much more softness ahead, but can't explain why people are still buying properties, Sellers have motivations that are all over the map, but if they are pressured to sell, they are doing everything they can not to let on, the ones who everyone knows need bailing out, unfortunately own homes that are being highly penalized on the "quality" scale, therefore selling at a massive discount that may still not be enough. (mapped out over time, these properties make a divot in the scale....)

We are not at a capitulation point for many of these people, but signs point to late June before the next true buying opportunity comes around. July, for once could be the buying opportunity of the year, when you think about it......

This months stats are pretty bloody, but there's still some strength in the Hood River merket. Closed numbers are down, Average price is up. (We need a housing land trust!) May's numbers are going to show a huge jump in listings, which will mean more inventory overhang, and continuing downward pressure on prices. Here's a stat for you: We are down 100 units closed this year in the Mid-Columbia market Last years we were at 315 closed, yet, and this year 213....

So. Not so hot, but not the gaping Maw either. Next month, we'll be talking about the dead cat bounce.......