Copper West Insider

The View from here, June 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 15:03:00 +0000

Well.....still going.

Dallas Fridley, our regional Economist wrote a stellar review of our Real Estate Marketplace. You can find it here.

Dallas does this stuff for a living, and though we are drawing slightly different conclusions, I'm thinking his data set is the county at large, while I'm allowed to be a bit more selective.....(read: I'm drinking my own kool-aid, and focusing on just the immediate Hood River City and surrounds)

Dallas is spot on with Wasco County, and the strength in average sales price in Hood River County, which showed impressive gains in May. (up 4.6% YTD) That's probably seasonal, and the total units sold is still down, but so far, so good.

There's been a RASH of deals this last week, and when I looked at listing numbers, a number I thought was going to explode, I found that it was, actually.....down. Not by much, mind you, but at least, I think we are not having that compounding effect of swelling inventory, and waning closings (read the "overhang overhang" comment from last month)

I wake up one morning, and I think "This is the inflection point" I wake up the next morning, and think...."uh oh" I never can tell what indicators will jump out from day to day.

I will say that the Buyers keep coming in, and people are still buying things, so, if we are selling at 2004-2005 levels in terms of units, and our total volume is only slightly off in the City of Hood River and immediate surrounds....well,

I seen worse.

Talk to you next month. June 28th. The inflection point. (As bad as the Sub Prime fall out is going to get until sometime later next year, when the second wave of it comes due, assuming workouts and bailouts haven't softened the blow.)

What worries me now? food, water and energy. That kind of impact, however, tends to strenghten us, in an area that has it's own food, water and power....

Inventory Check...........

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 19:11:00 +0000

298 in the Hood River Market as of this morning........As I recall, that's over 100 units more than our historical average.....30% ish overhang......

hmmm......Soft sales cycle, inventory building up.........

Why is it I always get to call it in June? Hang on, the next three weeks will be telling...........

Good Reads for June-

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:03:00 +0000

Fortune has a great article about shifting builders styles over at KB homes. Good Read, and a decent overview about the shrinking of the american home and a return to the value of a home as a rent vs. buy decision. We've been pushing that for years, but now, finally, it's getting some press.

NYT also had a great article on the delinquency rate across the Nation. the NW and North Central states all clocked in a nearly normal historical rates (under 3%) while the rest of the country.......awash in rates over 7%.

7%! Are you kidding me! That's crazy. I must be living in a thermos.

Here's the link to the NYT article. It's worth it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/business/06mortgage.html?scp=2&sq=delinquency&st=nyt

Here, WITH FULL CREDIT TO THE TIMES FOR THE GRAPHIC! Is the Graphic from the article......

The View from Here, May 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 17 May 2008 18:22:00 +0000

Hmmm....We've been having some bouncy times lately, and my numbers are a bit rougher this month than last. Still, doable and improving.

There is so much punditry out there right now, and alot of doomsayers, but I'm just not seeing it as apocalyptic as they do. (Rick!)

I've been reading about Portland's "Dead Cat Bounce" meaning their sales numbers, while increasing are still waaaay off from last years, and the rate of improvement is slowing thus....a top in the market for Portland that is much lower in previous years. So I took a look at our market. Here's a couple of things that are immediately apparent.

Mid Columbia Region
1. Number of closed sales are down.
2. Total sales volume down 48%.

Hood River County
1. Number of closed sales are down.
2. Total sales volume is the same.

City of Hood River
1. The Number of closed sales are down.
2. The sales volume is the same.

So there you go, split decision. (Well, not really) The same volume is being split among fewer transactions. One person points to the 20% year over year drop in closed sales(in the last two months, 35% YTD) and the other, promptly points to the dollar volume closed.

The City of Hood River, however, is hanging tough, County, same story. So why is the Region down on dollar volume? Here's why:

Skamania County? Wipeout. Klickitat County, Wipeout everywhere else except White Salmon and Bingen, which got brutalized, but survived by comparison.

I repeat, flight to quality in Hood River. In Hood River, if it's priced that same as last year or lower, and you LIKE THE PROPERTY AND ARE WILLING TO DEAL WITH ITS IMPERFECTIONS.......

BUY IT.

See you next month. Lots of action and things shifting around. I expect we'll see a relative increase in performance in closed sales, and dollar volume in Hood River City and County, as well as an EXPLOSION IN LISTING VOLUME.

At this point, I'm focusing inward on those areas that are the places that will thrive. Close in, Hood River. Right now, much else is a waste of resources......Expect the trend to continue as well, because no one, and I mean no one is lending to buy raw land or large tract, or other similarly unique properties.

Market Stats from April-

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 17 May 2008 17:41:00 +0000

Well, it's a faaaast moving market out there, not in terms of deals (though that is improving) but rather in terms of perceptions, motivations, and friction. Buyers perceive the market to have much more softness ahead, but can't explain why people are still buying properties, Sellers have motivations that are all over the map, but if they are pressured to sell, they are doing everything they can not to let on, the ones who everyone knows need bailing out, unfortunately own homes that are being highly penalized on the "quality" scale, therefore selling at a massive discount that may still not be enough. (mapped out over time, these properties make a divot in the scale....)

We are not at a capitulation point for many of these people, but signs point to late June before the next true buying opportunity comes around. July, for once could be the buying opportunity of the year, when you think about it......

This months stats are pretty bloody, but there's still some strength in the Hood River merket. Closed numbers are down, Average price is up. (We need a housing land trust!) May's numbers are going to show a huge jump in listings, which will mean more inventory overhang, and continuing downward pressure on prices. Here's a stat for you: We are down 100 units closed this year in the Mid-Columbia market Last years we were at 315 closed, yet, and this year 213....

So. Not so hot, but not the gaping Maw either. Next month, we'll be talking about the dead cat bounce.......

Market Stats from March!

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 21:56:00 +0000

I think the most telling item in this months market highlights is the caption under the Summary chart. It reads; "Due to the vast difference between the counties in the mid-columbia region, the area propert on page 15 provides summary information on each individial county"

Which is another way of saying......"there's some dogs in there, look out!"

The First Cut
At First cut, things look pretty rough. 14% decrease in new listings, Closed sales down.....ready for this? 46.4% and Pendings down 34%. For the quarter, Pendings doen 31.5% and closed ar 30.9%

See the upward tick?

The Finer Measure
Lets look closer at the Hood River County. Overall in Hood River County, Pending Sales were down 5.9% in March, and 26% for the Quarter. (Big uptick) Interestingly, while the other numbers look similar (bad, but not doing horribly) there is an interesting note......and that is that 9 of the 12 closings in March, and 23 of the 34 closings this year to date, are all in downtown Hood River. That looks like a flight to "quality" to me. (Quality being defined in a defensive aspect, like, safety, or value)
Around the region this thought seems to play out in this first quarter. Most of the outlying areas got absolutely pounded. Some of it is seasonal, but if this trend continues, it could hurt the outlying areas alot this year. Shorthand? If you want to live Rural, make an offer.

Lending Horror stories! (And Private Money to the Rescue!)

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 21:04:00 +0000

Ever heard the one about the mortgage broker who blew the financing so that they wouldn't have to honor the lock?

Or how about the one where the lender went bankrupt at closing?

....Or, how about the one where the bank approved the loan, then pulled back at the very last minute, while the parties were sitting in the closing, waiting for documents to be e-mailed in?

Yes, these, and other horror stories are making their way around the offices these days. while some of them will surely become urban legends, we have been noticing an uptick in alternative mortgage strategies. Here's a list of a few of them. (These are actually, very very similar to pre-1998 best practices, BTW, for people who can remember Real Estate from back then.)

1. Find a co-signor. This one is a classic, and becomming back in demand. By co-signing with a family member (usually parents) a young buyer gets to get the credit score of a sibling or parent, and then makes the payment. This was a very common arrangement in years past, and we are seeing it come back.

2. Private Money. Sound Exotic? hardly. It isn't exactly at the bargain basement prices of some mortgages, but you'd be surprised how many people are out there looking to lend money against a Real Estate Asset. Be careful when doing private money deals, because things like remedy, and evidence of payment, etc. can all hurt you alot. Best to get a lawyer to help out, but once everyone is on the same page.....well, these things tend to work out pretty well.

3. Your local bank! Yes, your local bank used to be the only lender in this area, and it is looking like a return to that time is a-comin. get to know your bank manager better. You know how you used to complain about not ever being able to speak to a human at those large mortgage companies, well, now you can speak to a human, only problem is, that human now knows alot about you, so you'd better make sure your payments are current!

The View from here, April, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 20:52:00 +0000

So it's been tough. Last couple of months have been quiet, and the newspaper hasn't helped. I left for vacation a few weeks ago and I didn't want to look at our income statements until I returned, expecting to see red, flowing from the pages......

I returned, and got up the nerve to look at my numbers and compare them with last year, bracing for the worst and............

They were EXACTLY the same as last year. Sales are up, closings are exactly the same, and while my costs are a little high.....really, alot better than I had thought!

I'll have to admit, I was expecting so, so much worse! Mostly, I was really bummed about my call that there was a bottom a few months back. I really do sense it, and I think that while we will be dragging along the bottom for a fairly long time. Most models indicate that the bulk of the mortgage resets, etc aren't until june, but with all this intervention, I think the worst of it has passed. (and been shifted back to the public in general, including those of us who weren't profligate borrowers, but that's for another posting)

For those of you who are waiting for the bottom to fall out, let me say this, you missed it. If the bottom does fall out at this point, you most certainly wont be buying anything, because most likely, you wont be able to obtain any kind of financing. Short of a major disaster (now under 20% and falling, thank you very much) in this marketplace, or the total implosion of Real Estate lending in it's entirety, we are past it.

That said, it's going to be rough rough rough for a bunch of years.........

See you next month!

This is a test of bloggers mobile blogging

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 20:27:00 +0000

Look out..........

"Underwater Lock Down"

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 23:58:00 +0000

...Ok, My phone rang immediately upon that last post with a disgruntled Blog reader. This is what an "underwater Lock Down" is.

In Hood River, your average person buys, or owns a house. They get caught up in some of the market run up hype, but not in the way you might expect. Usually, they take out their new found wealth in the form of a refinance at the higher valuation, but they do not sell. Many of them don't do sub prime but some do. (Figure more than 50% don't) and here's what happens.

Market corrects, but the total negative impact on these people is that their payment is high and they've lost money....but only if they sell their home.

They decide that it's easier to sit tight and pay a couple hundred more dollars a month and wait for the market to recover.....so, they drive their cars a little longer, go out to dine a few less times per year, and generally trim back a touch....but they don't sell.

What does this mean to Real Estate? The these houses do not come to market.....which is effectively a return to the Real Estate market of 1996-2001.........general upside pressure, limited inventory, very little speculation.....

More or less................

Mid Columbia Market Report......

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 23:52:00 +0000

Maketing report came out last week. The Highlights.......

Average Home Price in Hood River County is...Ready for it? $384,000.00. In the City of Hood River (Downtown) it was $403,000.

Yeow. Pricey. ("Spendy" is the local parlance) We are still having affordability issues, especially in the procurement of Land. A Couple of us are trying to start a land trust, but it too, is an uphill battle. Good thing about it though, is once you get something in there, it really is like money in the bank, earning interest....social and financial.....

Days on Market has gone waaay up, to over 120 days. That's a loooong time, and expect that number to improve. It will be interesting to see what happend to the Average Sales price when the "Underwater Lock Down" starts to happen. My bet is that it will impact consumer spending more than it will impact housing prices, expecially in this area, and have a supporting effect.....

But then again, maybe not. Hey, What the hell do I know?

The View from Here, February 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 20:01:00 +0000

Wow-

I hear there's another wave of writedowns in the offing. That would be unfortunate. I can't see it coming from more foreclosures, but rather from the compouding effects on both the investment banks and the insurers....Most people think this is the impact of September/Octobers delinquency rate, and if that's the case, this all wont be over until well into the Summer (height of the resets is January 08) With the freeze in effect, and other government intervention, who knows. It really is like a Hail Mary pass at the moment isn't it?

I read this week also, that there were 8.8 million people who were going to be helped out by our government's latest mortgage bailout, and that this number represented only 10% of those who were considered underwater. (Owe more on their house than it's worth.)

Now that number scares me. 88 million people are underwater in their homes? Impossible. That's got to be like 40-50% of the entire home ownership in America......If this is the magnitude of the problem, it looks completely different, but not what you'd first expect. It's kind of like "home owner mobility lockdown".....(i.e. It's cheaper to stay put than it is to move and take the bankruptcy.)

Even with all the recent shenanigans in Hood River Real Estate, a majority of the home owners are still sitting on equity (unless they refinanced and took money out)So once again, Hood River is not too hot, not to cold, and in playing the long game, looks pretty good overall.

That, combined with rising value in resource lands, makes for a decent spring.

I cannot wait until I can stop writing about the Sup-Prime Mortgage market.......

See you next month. I'm still bullish on the Market, but my timeframe has expanded a touch. No strapping on of shoes (see last post) until Spring of 2009.........

The View from Here, January, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 00:18:00 +0000

At the Risk of being wrong, here are my predictions for 2008 and Hood River Real Estate.

(Caveat-Assumes no explosions of Financial Toxic Waste)

1. Real Estate prices remain the same. Quality products are still finding quality buyers.

2. Less than perfect properties will get hit on value, but still be in line with the rest of the market.

3. The "buy it and flip it" crowd will go away.

4. The Fly by Night Contractor crowd will go away as well.

5. At least ONE of the major land developers (more than 10 lots of inventory) will fail.

6. There will be a slight gap in housing starts, then it will pick up again.....

7. By the end of 2008, we'll all be strapping on the running shoes trying to keep up again. (With sales volume, not price increases. They will be another year out.)

8. One of the developers in town will go out because of contractor liability, after finding that their houses are not sellable.

9. I'll have three kids.

10. Copper West is going to grow. Alot.

Two more reasons we are at the bottom.....

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 21:16:00 +0000

Well, Toxic event #1 has just been cleared away, given the BOA/Countrywide deal. If that goes through, well, that will be a big loss for strained homeowners (I doubt BOA wil take that obligation on, or the pending legal actions....) and probably remove the chance to have a resetting event.......but it sure should calm some nerves.........

Calm nerves are helping here, but I'm certain that it had nothing to do with the fact that 50% of the inventory in the Sieverkropp addition just went sale pending last week. Guess what, that's a big number in this narrow marketplace. Looks like the inventory overhang is beginning to clear out.........

A First Peek at Sherman Lofts.....

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Mon, 24 Dec 2007 21:52:00 +0000

Here's a sneak peek of Sherman Lofts........One of the Brokers in the office is a partner in this project, and we will be releasing it on the RMLS here shortly....

Nice View, Eh?

The Smaller units are 1800 square feet, and will be around $580k, while the larger ones are a truly luxurious 2500 sf, and will be over 600....

but get this....That doesn't include the HUGE garage on the ground floor! The garage is so big you could fit a mezzanine level of storage in it.

The design is clean without being cold, and the views are really really nice. Not too high, not too low. but sweeping and unblockable.

The flow is well thought out, and the properties feel pretty cozy, especially the penthouse units (the larger ones) They have a floor that feels like you are in a bit of a treehouse. The entire floor is your own space, with a master, private deck, walk-in closet, bath and extra "flex space" just on that level.....Very cool.

I'd give this place a real ten. You'll have to see it to appreciate how all the elements come together.......Bring your checkbook....

The View from Here, December 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 23 Dec 2007 01:45:00 +0000

December (more specifically, the last ten days of December)is a rough time for me.

Holidays remind me of my mother, and she passed away this year.

I'm a mix of Gratefulness (Mom's favorite word) and aspiration. A real product of Hawaii in so many ways. Conflicted, is what many people would call it. A foot in both worlds.

Why do I ramble on? Well, I had a couple of business posts on this Blog earlier this year, so I have to true it up before the clock strikes. Standing with feet in multiple worlds does generate one side effect, and that's the ability to see many shades of gray, hopefully from a vantage point that allows you to see the approaching weather, with something nearby to hunker under.......

The market in Hood River is no longer ominous. People arrive daily, ready to move in, ready to become a part of the community. All the National Real Estate Websites are pointing out that the new model of Real Estate is a "global" model (It's a poor word, but it's not mine) They often confuse "global" with Global, but currently they are talking about it meaning an influx of foreigners with money that's usually worth 2x ours.(global) I call it getting the short end of the Global stick, but hey, buy local. :)

2008?

Rockin. It's so full I can't even approach it. "global" to me means everyone is inbound. They've been that way for years, and 2008-2009 (with my usual financial toxic bomb caveat) will be the last time you'll ever be able to buy in Hood River again. There's just too much money looking for a safe place.

Call me a Bull or not, but remember I said it early.

The Oracle of Omaha......

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 01:27:00 +0000

About two years ago, Warren Buffet warned against Derivatives by commenting that he thought...(and I'm paraphrasing here) The Derivatives market had become so complex that he didn't think people trading in it knew exactly what they were buying anymore, and there was a greater than average risk of collapse and fiscal scandal.......

Until last month, I had rarely heard of MBIA and other Bond Insurers....But as we work through the last few days of the fourth quarter, when everyone writes down their losses for 2008.....That "toxic Sludge" everyone's been talking about may be in the bond insurers court......I'm just guessing here, but a Failure at a place like MBIA would be, at best.....costly.

Hang on to your balance sheets and your FICO Scores (for whatever they are worth, BTW) Although I called it a bottom in Hood River Last week, My caveat might come to fruition......

Values wont drop, but the ability to get credit might just vaporize for a bit.....This will drag on the market here, but there sure is alot of cash sloshing about, and since it can't go overseas.....well, let's just say we are seeing alot of it around here.

But my view of the impact will be that some sectors get hit, the one's where people are exposed and have to sell an asset in a hurry, at a discount. That's tract housing, and raw land. (the kind where the curbs and gutters are in and it's been platted)

Ruff. Ruff Ruff...

Maui

Moody's calls a Bottom....and so do I......

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 04:59:00 +0000

I've been sensing it for weeks.....(Ok, two weeks, but that's more than one) Barring a financial "nulcear event" (30% Chance, and dropping...slowly)we are in the bottom fifth of the adjustment......Prices aren't headed up anytime soon, maybe even a year, but the worst of it is behind us.

While that's grea,t it means new terrain, and the Buyer's still call the shots. The spectrum broadens, however, with quality and uniqueness extracting a premium AND deficienies penalized harshly........Time to bring some vision to your pieces, and nerves of steel...Kind of feels like 2001.....

Oh, except the rest of the world still thought America was cool back then....

:)

Maui

Something fun.....

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 23:24:00 +0000

This one is showing up around the Blogs.....Search for it under the "all in one Case-Schiller" on google.....

Oh, and note the bounce in Detroit!

Hood River and Case-Schiller.....

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 23:19:00 +0000

Just read the summary, and once again, (with the exception of Dallas, Texas) The Northwest posts the ONLY positive year over year gain. That said.....Growth in prices is pretty much flat to slightly negative, so now we return to valuation based upon cashflow, or use. (as a primary residence, for example)and guess what?

There's a gap there. So either, people are moving to Hood River and value that utility so much they are willing to pay a premium for it, OR prices will mark to cashflow multiples. (does anyone even remember what that is anymore?)

...and the market cleaves cleanly in half. Utility and Luxury......

The View from Here, November, 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 23:23:00 +0000

Credit...Markets...Siezing...Must.Keep.Wheels.On.Economy....
(Says Superman as he fights the market implosion like it was some giant outer space monster....)

Nope, it isn't, we made this mess, and we are going to have to ride this one out. We, when I say we, I mean, the other We, those like me in Atlanta, Florida, California and the poster children of trouble...Arizona and Nevada.

Sometimes I wonder if my life has become too boring, as we plod along, comfortable, not too hot, not too cool. Then I see the pain being inflicted in other markets, and I say to myself....."whew" glad that isn't us. Yet.

I read a comment from the NAR convention where one of the presenters stood up on staged and listed all the people who were the cause of all this pain. He started at number five, predatory lenders, and as he worked his way through bad appraisers, greedy secondary markets, and lax regulators, the applause got louder and louder,

Shouts of "yeah!" were heard from the packed room of Realtors.

And then he got to number one. "REALTORS" and the room fell silent.

That's the word on the street, anyway.

Remember last month where I pointed out which banks seemed to be holding it together? Wells Fargo and US Bank....Rocking right along, well poised to move forward without major writedowns......so far.

The problem is, illiquidity in credit markets leads to other things, and one of those flanks could prove painful. We just don't know when it will show up. One thing is for sure, if it continues to spread, and the public calls for faster writedowns of lost assets.....this could go from bad to worse in a couple of days. I'm not sure why anyone would want to take it past the fourth quarter, unless it's really ugly......

Ok back to Hood River. Things are, well, are....actually quiet, but kind of normal. Still humming along. Had a few casualties here in the last week, and the board looks light.....but the phone is ringing and we still have clients.....how bad can it be?

There's some hot deals out there right now, that's for sure. Here's a couple of good Stats from this month:

1. The Average sale price, Year to date, in Hood River, is $326,000.00. (Down .7% YOY) On the West Side its $434,000.00 (Up 2.7% YOY) and on the East Side, its $647,000.00!(up 16%, but with only two sales YTD)

2. The average Days on Market in Hood River is 76 days with Days on Market on the West Side of 201. Hood River City, 126 units sold YTD, West Side 36. Currently on the Market in Hood River, 100 units. West Side 32 Units.

Anything in there? Surprising strength on the West side. I would have tossed up a caution flag, based upon the inventory out there, but then I realize the inventory out there is exactly what the market wants (Cool Craftsman homes on larger lots) and I'm thinking things might not be so bad out there right now.....(The 201 days is an anomaly, and it's my fault...one of my longer listings)

See you next Month!

The View from here, October 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 21:23:00 +0000

Good Article this week from Marketwatch about foreclosure markets and their discount rates (It's a realty-trac rehash, but a pretty good one) Check it out here.

See? Not so bad in Hood River after all.......

Market review shows flat growth in Hood River, and gains in surrounding markets. Same as last month, with slight signs of improvement. No one is in a bidding war, that's for sure, but there are still Buyers out there.....if they can get financing.

This Month's review showed signs of a bottom until Friday's Woes. I have, by the way, never EVER been through some of the kookiest requests from underwriters, ever.

They are rejecting appraisals, wondering why we don't have multiple exact comps in our rural areas, asking for demographic information, and some truly, overly personal information of my clients.

Basically, to me, that means there are alot of very scared people. Imagine being that scared, and having a quarterly sales quota to meet..........Not a job I want to be in. Wait a minute.......

New to the "woes bin" this month, after long avoiding the spotlight is none other than.....WAMU! Oh, and Bank of America! It's interesting, it appears there has been ALOT of below the radar wrangling going on. I'm not sure the worst of it's over, especially after the Countrywide Mortgage Inquiry was launched. Please don't do a loan with Countrywide, they might not be there next month.......

US Bank and Wells Fargo seem to be holding their own, and I did a large loan with them about a year ago, and let me tell you, I NEVER handed in so much information, and that was back in January of 2007! Sounds like they sniffed out the problem and went for quality early on. and US Bank? The usual, highly detailed, Hyper accurate, as always.....They don't to too much morgtage work, but every Loan I've ever done with them has been, how shall I say it...."Fully Vetted"

So another 30 days! we made it! I think everyone can breathe a sigh of relief, even if it is as we go over the falls.....

Just kidding.

Fortune Magazine says Kiteboarding is Cool!

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 21:45:00 +0000

Ok, Fortune Magazine last month deemed Kiteboarding as the "New Golf" for VC types.

With the Majority of our office made up of Kiteboarders, I thought I'd interview a few of the guys and see what they think of their new found "Power-Player" (we used to spell it "playa" but we are supposed to be going legit, "New Golf" remember?)

William Irving the Third
"Really?!" Says Bill (With that long ee sound, Reeeally) "Well, It's the Golf where you can kill yourself. Wait a minute what are you doing?"

*negotiaitons ensue*

"I think it's a good way to be involved in a community of people that is friendly and helpful"

Even if they are wealthy masters of the universe? "It will open up a greater body of water for the sport, and it's waaay easier than traveling with a windsurfer. It's like traveling with a Golf Bag, except you get way better Extreme Cred."

Hunter Lowery

"Is this a Joke?!"

*pause while Hunter laughs and lets it sink in*

"....aah, I would say that it's more attractive to call it "Earth Friendly Golf" Says Hunter. "How much of the Earth is Water? It's like Golf Courses everywhere! It definitely seems like the golf demographic these days now that the kites won't kill you...."

So there you have it. Copperwest, Leading the charge again. I would have to say, having taken up the sport this Summer, I'm pretty Hooked. Like, stand around in marginal conditions in my 5/3 Steamer Suit Hooked. That's clinical.

What is up, California?!

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 21:31:00 +0000

Ok, you've read it here forever, about people coming to Hood River to change their lives quality of life, blah blah....(I shouldn't rip on myself so badly.....) but in the Last MONTH our visits from California have gone up by about 200%.

Now, I'll spend as much money as the next guy advertising to generate customers, but even I don't have the resources to push into that market. Something's up. Something changed and it's causing visits to our site to go crazy........

Let's see, October/November (The Winter Months are one large bog of days....)There's been a surprising bump in activity. Dare I call it a bottom? for some product absolutely. Interesting fact about the Hood River market, is that overhang clears out pretty quickly. When I call up a client and say "you should go after this one" usually, after that one clears the market, it has a temporary impact on the market, then there are no more properties available for a bit and THINGS HAVE RISEN IN PRICE AGAIN. Yes, there I've said it.......

SO, there are pools around that are not clearing out. Like over 700, but under 350, things are hopping, and prices are firm, why, I even got multiple offers on one of our listings recently. Yes, Yes, I know, "what's that!?" It was a great value and one of only two on the market, when it went away, so did that great value.......

So I'm feeling pretty good about the Winter. Not bullish, mind you, but for a couple of weeks there I was thinking I'd run out of those "lower the price and hit a pool of Buyers" thing I've been writing about. Now I'm seeing that we've sold into some price ranges, and the Buyers are still showing up, and if we can get the right mix, we'll be ok. My Big issue right now? Buyer's ability to get a mortgage.

Remember that post "Get it Gone?" This is the reverse of that. Your property with a flaw will still be penalized, but at least you'll be working towards strength, even if it is only seasonal, and well, about 6 months away.

At Least there's some "There" "There"

Fall is awesome, Hood River is the place to be, and I'm going home to hang out with my Kids......

Residential Highlights Hood River September 2007

noreply@blogger.com (Maui Meyer) — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 18:12:00 +0000

Well...The August numbers are in. Interesting.

August closings dropped a significant 35.4% compared to last year, with Pending Sales dropping 11.7%. This rings true, based upon our experience, but what is interesting is that the average sale price has gone up 8%. The median price has also risen 14.5%. While I'm certain a bunch of Sellers are going to jump on that number and try to stiffen their positions, the next page over tells another story.

Most of that appreciation is over on the Washington side,(huge % gains in Glenwood and Lyle, which could also be due to the limited market history there, but...50% gains,- Wow); with Hood River registering Flat, and the Upper Valley and Cascade Locks registering gains. (As an aside, one of those markets is almost fully made up of high ticket transactions (Upper Valley) while the other, Cascade Locks, is almost entirely made up of more affordable properties. The middle class is missing in this discussion almost entirely).

Since median sales price has gained over average, there seems to be more of a market at the higher end. Has Hood River been discovered? Yeah, probably.

Hood River east side went negative in appreciation by over 10%. Overall, that's only a gain in home values in Hood River County of....ready for this? .8% for the TTM.

I keep telling myself that we are better off than just about any place else in the country, and I'm beginning to feel we are at least at the proverbial "end of the beginning".

The shoes are dirty, I think we've previewed most of the second and third acts, and now it's a question of magnitude, not complexity. I can't imagine our deals getting any more complex.......

Buyers are still in control.....and as prices drop, we find only intermittent Seller strength, as multiple buyers suddenly show up to pounce on a deal. I wonder how long that will last?