Hoops Nerd

Hoops Nerd At-Large Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 12:33:00 +0000

These are not, by any means, at attempt to predict who will be selected this afternoon. Nor is this an account of who "deserves" to get in, but here are the best 34 teams without automatic bids per the Hoops Nerd Ratings (updated through Saturday, March 15th - the last version of the rankings published is here, check it out if for nothing other than the explanation). This assumes that North Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas and Wisconsin grab the remaining automatic bids later today.

Remember: these are decidedly not predictions.

1. Duke
Hoops Nerd Rating: +22.2
RPI (courtesy Ken Pomeroy): 6
Lunardi says: in
Bracketology 101 says: in
Likelihood of Bid: lock

2. Tennessee
HNR: +22.2
RPI: 1
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

3. Georgetown
HNR: +20.1
RPI: 8
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

4. Clemson
HNR: +18.7
RPI: 19
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

5. Michigan St.
HNR: +18.1
RPI: 16
Lunardi: in
B101: out
LoB: lock

6. Louisville
HNR: +18.0
RPI: 13
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

7. Marquette
HNR: +17.4
RPI: 20
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

8. Indiana
HNR: +17.2
RPI: 23
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

9. Connecticut
HNR: +16.8
RPI: 18
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

10. Notre Dame
HNR: +16.5
RPI: 27
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

11. Xavier
HNR: +16.5
RPI: 9
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

12. West Virginia
HNR: +16.2
RPI: 28
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

13. Texas
HNR: +16.1
RPI: 5
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

14. Florida
HNR: +16.0
RPI: 72
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nil

15. New Mexico
HNR: +15.1
RPI: 60
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

16. Purdue
HNR: +15.0
RPI: 44
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

17. Vanderbilt
HNR: +15.0
RPI: 12
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

18. Kansas St.
HNR: +14.6
RPI: 50
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

19. Washington St.
HNR: +14.3
RPI: 21
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

20. Texas A&M
HNR: +14.2
RPI: 41
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

21. Stanford
HNR: +14.0
RPI: 14
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

22. Mississippi
HNR: +14.0
RPI: 46
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

23. Mississippi St.
HNR: +13.9
RPI: 40
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

24. Ohio St.
HNR: +13.7
RPI: 49
Lunardi: in
B101: out
LoB: virtual coin-flip

25. Gonzaga
HNR: +13.6
RPI: 31
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

26. Syracuse
HNR: +13.0
RPI: 55
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nearly nil

27. Miami FL
HNR: +12.9
RPI: 34
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

28. Virginia Commonwealth
HNR: +12.9
RPI: 54
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

29. Arizona
HNR: +12.9
RPI: 38
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: inkling of hope

30. Georgia Tech
HNR: +12.6
RPI: 67
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nil

31. Virginia Tech
HNR: +12.6
RPI: 53
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

32. Illinois
HNR: +12.1
RPI: 103
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nil (albeit still with a shot at an automatic bid)

33. USC
HNR: +11.8
RPI: 30
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

34. Brigham Young
HNR: +11.7
RPI: 25
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

And, because it's the cool thing to do:

Next Four Out
Florida St.
Kentucky
Southern Illinois
New Mexico St.

Last Four Out
Illinois St.
Maryland
Alabama
Villanova

Hoops Nerd Ratings 2/26

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 19:48:00 +0000

The Hoops Nerd's day job has been effing with the blogging schedule. Not cool - but here are the all-new late February Hoops Nerd Ratings.

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

The basic premise is that the quality of offense and the quality of defense in any given Conference is relatively consistent from year to year. Based on a few season's worth of data (Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, of course), we can form an expectation for the average quality of, for example, an ACC defense, or an Ivy League defense. We can also form expectations of the distribution of offensive or defensive prowess amongst the teams in a given Conference, again based on a few season's worth of data. The Hoops Nerd Ratings use z-scores to transpose current season data onto our expectation model, taking into account both average and distribution, for both offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team. The value in this approach rests largely with its ability to rein in aberrant results on either side of the ball, recognize the legit outliers, and use of historical context as the base to which regression will ultimately pull.

1. Kansas (Jan 30 Rank: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +24.3
Rock! Chalk! Grossly Underappreciated by the National Media Jayhawk! Both Ken Pomeroy's ratings and Jeff Sagarin's Predictor ratings say that they are the best team in the nation, and your humble Hoops Nerd concurs, yet the AP and ESPN/USA Today have Kansas slotted 6th and 7th, respectively. The difference really is in the objectives of the different types of systems: systems like Pomeroy and Predictor are designed to quantify performance, whereas the media rankings are more an attempt to attribute varying degrees of merit and deservedness to each team, often based on teams' records (regardless of margin of victory) and an illusory/fictional transitive thingy ("Stephen F. Austin beat Oklahoma, and Nicholls St. beat Stephen F. Austin, then Nicholls St. is better than Oklahoma!"). That is, the former tells which team is best, whereas the latter tells you which team deserves to be ranked first.

2. Duke (2)
+23.5
Like that of Kansas, Duke's national AP ranking (7th) belies its true quality. Recent consecutive road losses to Wake Forest and Miami (FL) may be what sinks the Blue Devils' shot at a #1 seed in THE tournament: Lunardi currently has Duke projected as the last #2 seed (i.e. 8th overall) and Bracketology 101 has them as the third #2 seed. The team will have opportunities to play its way back into a #1 seed, with a showdown vs. North Carolina on March 8th and of course the ACC Tournament.

3. Tennessee (4)
+22.7
The Vols have dominated the SEC for most of this season, and as such have been looked upon kindly by the Hoops Nerd Ratings. As can be read in the detailed description above, the Hoops Nerd Ratings transpose current play relative to conference onto an expectation model based on historical results - exactly the kind of approach that would have believed in the Vols all along. Since November 26th, each installment of the Hoops Nerd Ratings has ranked the Vols higher than the corresponding week's AP Poll did. On 11/26, these ratings had Tennessee ranked 6th, the AP had them 11th, on 12/3 it was 3rd here and 10th in the AP, on 12/10 it was 3rd here and 12th in the AP, on 12/31 it was 6th here and 8th in the AP, on 1/8 it was 4th here and 8th in the AP, on 1/15 it was 5th here and 6th in the AP, and on 1/30 it was 4th here and 7th in the AP. That trend finally reversed this week, as the AP went APeshit and vaulted the Vols to 1st. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are still happy to take full credit for having been (heretofore) on the vanguard of this particular Orange Revolution, however.

4. North Carolina (3)
+22.5
Ty Lawson may return in time for Saturday's game vs. Boston College, but one would assume that Roy Williams would have to be assured that the timetable for Lawson's return would have to be conservative enough so as not to risk further injury. The Tar Heels are a virtual lock for a very high tournament seed, and any further regular season success at this point is subject to diminishing returns.

5. Wisconsin (7)
+20.5
With a reasonable expectation of winning at least two of their final three regular season games (vs. Michigan St., vs. Penn St., at Northwestern), the Badgers could potentially secure a #2 seed in the Tournament. The thought in Madison is that this year's iteration could be superior to last season's more heralded and nationally-ranked Badger team - and those thinkers are correct.

6. Indiana (10)
+19.1
There is nothing that I can say here about the recent goings-on in Bloomington that couldn't be read in much more detail elsewhere, so I will simply quote the following passage that appeared in the Hoops Nerd Ratings column on January 30th of this year, before the recent scandal broke: "Kelvin Sampson wrote this letter imploring fans to be civil at Assembly Hall, no word yet on whether Sampson plans to text the letter to potential recruits..." The Hoops Nerd is nothing if not prescient.

7. Marquette (9)
+19.0
The Golden Eagles propensity to lay thuderous beatdowns on quality opponents and then inexplicably lose a game or two tends to confound power rankings and rating systems, subjective and objective alike. Witness Basketball Prospectus power ratings man Joe Sheehan: Sheehan's rankings column (called "The List", of which I am a big fan) attempts to rank teams using a somewhat subjective wins/losses/eyeball test system, but with empirical underpinnings. Sheehan most recently ranked Marquette 22nd, a ranking that belied his "numbers only" ranking of Marquette as 12th. For a man (like Sheehan) trying to balance the input of his eyes with the input of his Excel sheet, Marquette presents a significant challenge. Luckily for me, it's all Excel sheet here on the Hoops Nerd Ratings.

8. Georgetown (5)
+18.9
February losses to Syracuse and Louisville have put a crimp in the #1 seed plans of the Hoyas, but of course with Marquette, Louisville and the Big East Tournament on the horizon, then could regain their once-lofty ranking.

9. Clemson (13)
+18.5
The Tigers haven't played in a week (having last seen game action February 19 vs. Florida St.). Clemson will need to finish strong against four teams from the upper-middle-tier of the ACC (Miami, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech) in order to lock down an at-large bid to the Tournament. Two more wins ought to put them into the coveted Glockner Lock Status.

10. UCLA (16)
+18.5
The Bruins appear headed for at least a #2 seed and possibly a #1. The Hoops Nerd is looking forward to the March 8th game vs. Stanford (the same day as Duke vs. North Carolina).

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Louisville (18), +18.3
12. Xavier (12), +18.1
13. Michigan St. (8), +17.7
14. Notre Dame (17), +16.9
15. Kansas St. (21), +16.8
16. West Virginia (6), +16.7
17. Texas (27), +16.6
18. Florida (14), +16.3
19. Memphis (15), +16.1
20. New Mexico (26), +15.5
21. Connecticut (19), +15.4
22. Pittsburgh (22), +15.4
23. Drake (11), +15.0
24. Arkansas (NR), +14.8
25. Vanderbilt (NR), +14.7
26. Washington St. (25), +14.7
27. Purdue (NR), +14.6
28. Butler (29), +13.9
29. Mississippi St. (23), +13.7
30. Stanford (NR), +13.7

New this Week: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Stanford
Disappearing this Week: Mississippi, Ohio St., Arizona, Virginia Commonwealth
On the Cusp: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Ohio St., Gonzaga, Arizona

Hoops Nerd Ratings 1/30

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 15:01:00 +0000

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

The basic premise is that the quality of offense and the quality of defense in any given Conference is relatively consistent from year to year. Based on a few season's worth of data (Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, of course), we can form an expectation for the average quality of, for example, an ACC defense, or an Ivy League defense. We can also form expectations of the distribution of offensive or defensive prowess amongst the teams in a given Conference, again based on a few season's worth of data. The Hoops Nerd Ratings use z-scores to transpose current season data onto our expectation model, taking into account both average and distribution, for both offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team. The value in this approach rests largely with its ability to rein in aberrant results on either side of the ball, recognize the legit outliers, and use of historical context as the base to which regression will ultimately pull.

1. Kansas (Jan 15 Rank: 3)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +24.9
The Jayhawks regain their spot atop the Hoops Nerd Ratings, having last been number one on November 26th (it's been Duke ever since). Since the last installment of these ratings, Kansas notched a six-point win at Missouri and home-court blowouts over Iowa St. and Nebraska. This evening's trip to Manhattan to play the resurgent K-State Flying Beasleys will be an entertaining challenge.

2. Duke (1)
+23.8
Duke actually has a higher Hoops Nerd Rating this week, and so the single-spot drop in the ratings is a bit of an illusion, attributable to Kansas' dominance more than any fault of Duke's. After all, the Blue Devils have scored four consecutive (and convincing) ACC wins, three of which were on the road, over the past two weeks. The Inconvenient ACC Truth is that Duke has been the best team in its conference this season, further evidence of which will likely be provided on Thursday when the Blue Devils take on both NC State and climate change.

3. North Carolina (2)
+21.2
With two wins and a loss (to Maryland) over the past two weeks, the Tar Heels have dropped to third in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. North Carolina currently boasts the best offense in the nation, owing particularly to their tremendous offensive rebounding, which is second in the nation only to Holy Cross (raw numbers, of course).

4. Tennessee (5)
+20.6
The Vols constitute a pretty good demonstration of the Hoops Nerd Rating's transposition of efficiencies into historical context. They are currently significantly ahead of the SEC averages on both offense and defense, and our model expects that, when a team is this dominant relative to others in the SEC, then that team is likely very, very good.

5. Georgetown (9)
+19.9
The Hoyas experienced a significant jump in these ratings, attributable to their having beaten three reasonably good Big East teams over the last two weeks (Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia). Georgetown leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage.

6. West Virginia (7)
+19.3
Since the last installment of the Hoops Nerd Ratings, the Mountaineers have beaten-up on inferior competition (St. John's, South Florida, Marshall) and lost to Georgetown. Tonight is a big one for Bob Huggins, as his former team - Cincinnati - is coming to Morgantown. It's a sort of inverted deja vu for Huggins, as he still remembers the 1998 NCAA tournament game in which his (then) Bearcats lost to his alma-mater West Virginia, 75-74.

7. Wisconsin (6)
+18.9
The Badgers are 6 - 1 in conference play, but have yet to battle some of the better Big Ten teams: Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St. or Ohio St. That will change tomorrow night when Wisconsin hosts the Hoosiers. Ken Pomeroy knows that Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten, and so should you.

8. Michigan St. (12)
+18.8
The Spartans have beaten Big Ten rivals Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota since we last spoke and have moved up four spots in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Izzo's crew hopes to make history tonight against Illinois.

9. Marquette (4)
+18.6
Consecutive losses at Louisville and Connecticut have caused Marquette to drop five spots in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings. Joe Sheehan has Marquette on probation until they get a conference win on the road, which the Golden Eagles have a shot at Saturday in Cincinnati.

10. Indiana (11)
+18.5
Losing at home to a Dyson-less Connecticut team is not cool, but the Huskies are a decent bet to improve (in one or more of reality and perception). Kelvin Sampson wrote this letter imploring fans to be civil at Assembly Hall, no word yet on whether Sampson plans to text the letter to potential recruits...

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Drake (8), +18.4
12. Xavier (15), +17.7
13. Clemson (13), +17.5
14. Florida (18), +17.2
15. Memphis (17), +17.2
16. UCLA (16), +17.0
17. Notre Dame (19), +16.0
18. Louisville (24), +15.8
19. Connecticut (25), +15.5
20. Mississippi (16), +15.5
21. Kansas St. (NR), +15.5
22. Pittsburgh (20), +15.3
23. Mississippi St. (22), +15.3
24. Ohio St. (26), +15.2
25. Washington St. (21), +14.9
26. New Mexico (29), +14.1
27. Texas (28), +14.1
28. Arizona (NR), +13.9
29. Butler (NR), +13.7
30. Virginia Commonwealth (NR), +13.4

New this Week: Kansas St., Arizona, Butler, Virginia Commonwealth
Disappearing this Week: Texas A&M, Utah, Arkansas, Missouri
On the Cusp: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Stanford, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Hoops Nerd Ratings 1/15

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 17:05:00 +0000

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.3
The Blue Devils hold onto the top spot for yet another week, having beaten Temple (comfortably) and Virginia (handily). Between Coach Krzyzewski moving into sixth spot on the all-time coaching wins list and the apparent return of the Duke's head cheerleader, things are going very well in Durham.

2. North Carolina (2)
+22.4
North Carolina played two in-state opponents last week and had more difficulty with the one from the Big South (NC Asheville) than with the one from the ACC (NC State). According to Ken Pomeroy's numbers, the Tar Heels have four of the nation's top 33 offensive performers (minimum 20% of team's possessions used): Wayne Ellington (ranked number 5), Tyler Hansbrough (8), Danny Green (15), and Ty Lawson (33).

3. Kansas (3)
+22.0
The Jayhawks beat Loyola Maryland, Oklahoma and Nebraska last week, each without inordinate difficulty. Kansas dominates the Big Twelve in a way that few other teams have dominated their respective conferences this season; the 4.6 gap in Hoops Nerd Rating between Kansas and the Big Twelve's second highest (Texas A&M) is very high relative to most, but is notably surpassed by Xavier (8.2 over Duquesne), Memphis (9.4 over UAB), Butler (8.1 over Valparaiso), and Drake (7.5 over Creighton).

4. Marquette (5)
+21.1
Beating Seton Hall and throttling Notre Dame comprise just the sort of week needed for a Big East team to move up a spot in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. I have Marquette ranked fourth, Pomeroy has them third, Sagarin has them sixth in his "predictor" ratings, but both the AP and ESPN/USA Today have them thirteenth. What gives? Two of those five rating systems take a myopic view of win-loss records and routinely neglect context, can you guess which two?

5. Tennessee (4)
+20.9
The Volunteers were leap-frogged by Marquette through no fault of their own, a fact to which this week's victims Ole Miss and South Carolina would undoubtedly attest. Is the New Tyler Smith a product of context (Iowa last season, Tennessee this) or should his absurd degree of improvement be attributed internally? Last season, he had an Offensive Rating of 100, this season he is at 130. Some context: only one current player on the Vols roster has an offensive rating under 100, conversely, Smith's 130 rating is 17th nationally this season. When considering whether this improvement is situational or not, remember that Offensive Rating is a tempo-free stat, so account has already been taken of the fact that the Hawkeyes are a much slower team.

6. Wisconsin (9)
+20.2
The Badgers were able to advance in the Hoops Nerd Ratings by doing what only Duke, Maryland, Arizona, Miami (OH), Tennessee St., Ohio St., Penn St., and Indiana have done this season: beat the Illini. Coach Ryan gets a little passive-aggressive with the refs here, simultaneously attributing some of Michael Flowers' recent struggles to unwhistled moving screens and insisting that he's not complaining about the non-calls.

7. West Virginia (7)
+19.4
West Virginia split games with Syracuse and Louisville last week. Backup Quarterback Jarrett Brown has joined the team, though maybe he shouldn't play the Pitt game...

8. Drake (14)
+19.0
Hoops Nerd Ratings top-ten-virgins Drake moved into this lofty position by virtue of wins over Missouri St. and Indiana St.. As I am nearly certain that Kyle Whelliston will point out within the next few hours (when the Week 9 State of the Mid-Majors will likely be revealed), Drake is the top Mid Major team in the country. The Bulldog triumvirate of non-power conference teams (Gonzaga, Butler, Drake) is now firmly established.

9. Georgetown (10)
+18.9
The Hoops Nerd's Excel sheet updates every Monday morning, so for now we will ignore last night's loss to Pitt. With that in mind, it was wins over DePaul and Connecticut which allowed Georgetown to advance in this week's ratings. The Hoyas play their best under a full moon.

10. UCLA (16)
+18.7
UCLA (along with Drake) was the biggest mover into this week's top ten, advancing six spots on the strength of wins over both PAC Ten teams from Washington. These guys loved the Washington St. game, described in the aforelinked article as the best offensive one of Kevin Love's young career.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Indiana (12), +18.5
12. Michigan St. (6), +18.0
13. Clemson (8), +17.9
14. Texas A&M (15), +17.4
15. Xavier (11), +17.3
16. Mississippi (13), +17.1
17. Memphis (19), +16.2
18. Florida (18), +15.8
19. Notre Dame (17), +15.6
20. Pittsburgh (22), +15.5
21. Washington St. (28), +15.1
22. Mississippi St. (26), +14.6
23. Utah (NR), +14.5
24. Louisville (NR), +14.3
25. Connecticut (NR), +14.3
26. Ohio St. (NR), +14.2
27. Arkansas (21), +14.2
28. Texas (20), +14.1
29. New Mexico (23), +14.0
30. Missouri (NR), +13.6

New this Week: Utah, Louisville, Connecticut, Ohio St., Missouri
Disappearing this Week: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Oklahoma
On the Cusp: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Butler, Oklahoma, Minnesota

Hoops Nerd Ratings 1/8

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 15:26:00 +0000

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.4
Beating Cornell by 14 points was enough to keep the Blue Devils at the top of the ratings, although their margin over the second place team has shrunk from 5.0 points last week to 0.7 currently. Duke hadn't played in 17 days, so the natural response to the narrow (relative to expectations) win over the Big Red is to attribute it to "rust". "Rust" is a little subjective for the Hoops Nerd, but it beats labeling it random simply because it can't be diagnosed and quantified, so yeah: Duke was rusty.

2. North Carolina (3)
+22.7
The overtime win at Clemson was the closest thing that North Carolina has had to a loss yet this season. The Tar Heels are number one in the media polls, but are getting considerably less love from more objective rating systems.

3. Kansas (4)
+21.6
The Jayhawks perpetrated a 25 point embarrassment of Boston College on Saturday in their penultimate game before the beginning of conference play. Kansas' offense ranks second in the nation (to Georgetown) in effective field goal percentage, and its defense ranks second in steal percentage (to VMI) - a formidable combination, to be sure.

4. Tennessee (6)
+20.9
The Volunteers were able to rise two spots in the Hoops Nerd Ratings without actually having played a game since last weeks rankings, owing to losses by West Virginia and Marquette. Of the six players who have played at least 49% of Tennessee's minutes this season, Chris Lofton has the lowest effective field goal percentage. The Vols have played a very strong non-conference schedule, due partially to the fact that they stepped up on short notice and took Georgetown's spot in a game in Seattle vs. Gonzaga.

5. Marquette (2)
+20.9
West Virginia is to blame for Marquette's three-spot tumble down the Hoops Nerd Ratings, having beaten the Golden Eagles by 15 points on Sunday. There is an interesting three-team race shaping up in these early moments of Big East play. Myself and Jeff Sagarin have Marquette atop the conference, Ken Pomeroy has West Virginia as number one, and the national media and Big East bloggers both prefer Georgetown.

6. Michigan St. (7)
+20.3
The narrow margin (six points) of the home win over Minnesota might have the Spartans seeing Golden Gophers in their dreams/nightmares in anticipation of what could be their next big test, a January 20 trip to Minnesota. Not that that is all bad: according to some, the appearance of a gopher in one's dream may be a pun on "go for it" and thus an indicator of subconscious initiative and drive to achieve one's goals.

7. West Virginia (5)
+20.1
Losing to Notre Dame on Thursday hurt, but the pain was quickly ameliorated by a Sunday win over Marquette. New Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins apparently called on Southern Cal's Tim Floyd for some defensive advice, a call which yielded the triangle-and-2 that ultimately confounded the Golden Eagles.

8. Clemson (14)
+19.0
A win over Alabama and (more significantly) a two-point overtime loss the North Carolina have vaulted the Tigers up six spots in these ratings. Clemson's collapse last season is nearing Platonic form status as the collapse against which all others are measured - the cautionary tales in media and casual conversation about the soft undefeated teams (like Vanderbilt this season, some might say) never fail to invoke last year's Tigers. Does the ubiquity of their failure bother them as much as the incessant invocation of or allusion to same bothers me?

9. Wisconsin (8)
+19.0
Opening the Big Ten schedule with wins over Michigan and Iowa is a nice, soft introduction to what could be a very arduous season. Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan St., Minnesota and Ohio St. (and maybe even Penn St.) are all serious contenders for the Big Ten crown, making each teams' conference schedule a virtual minefield of potential losses - luckily for Wisconsin, however, the team does not have to travel to Michigan St. this season. The Badgers have the best defense in the country, according to kenpom.com.

10. Georgetown (10)
+18.9
Since the last installment of these ratings, the Hoyas have played only one game, beating Rutgers (yawn). Not surprisingly, Georgetown's offense is really slow and really efficient. The Hoyas lead the country in two-point field goal percentage, a leading indicator of tournament success.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Xavier (15), +18.6
12. Indiana (9), +18.5
13. Mississippi (11), +18.3
14. Drake (16), +18.1
15. Texas A&M (17), +18.0
16. UCLA (24), +16.8
17. Notre Dame (12), +16.7
18. Florida (20), +15.8
19. Memphis (22), +15.6
20. Texas (21), +15.4
21. Arkansas (19), +15.3
22. Pittsburgh (18), +15.1
23. New Mexico (13), +14.7
24. Syracuse (25), +14.7
25. Butler (NR), +13.9
26. Mississippi St. (NR), +13.9
27. Gonzaga (29), +13.9
28. Washington St. (NR), +13.7
29. Minnesota (28), +13.5
30. Oklahoma (30), +13.3

New this Week: Butler, Mississippi St., Washington St.
Disappearing this Week: Arizona, South Carolina, Florida St.
On the Cusp: Louisville, Ohio St., Arizona, Vanderbilt, Florida St.

Hoops Nerd Ratings 12/31

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 18:07:00 +0000

Extended Holiday Break ending in 3...2...1...

This is the season's first set of Hoops Nerd Ratings that completely disregard preseason projections - the weight assigned to the current season is now 100%. The preseason projections did not separate offense from defense, but instead was built by one single +/- points per 67 possessions number. Now, free from the shackles of those crude projections, offense and defense are treated as the insular categories that they are.

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. Since the preseason projections are now disregarded, and offense and defense are calculated separately, the regression model in the aforelinked explanation reigns in two different types (offense and defense) of aberrant performances. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minutes points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Ratings [12/10]: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +25.8
Best Fall 2007 Win: Marquette
Worst Fall 2007 Loss: Pittsburgh
Fall 2007 MVP: Jon Scheyer

2. Marquette (8)
HNR: +20.8
Best Win: Wisconsin
Worst Loss: Duke
MVP: Lazar Hayward

3. North Carolina (4)
HNR: +20.7
Best Win: Ohio St.
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Tyler Hansbrough

4. Kansas (2)
HNR: +20.4
Best Win: Arizona
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Mario Chalmers

5. West Virginia (6)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: New Mexico St.
Worst Loss: Oklahoma
MVP: Alex Ruoff

6. Tennessee (3)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: West Virginia
Worst Loss: Texas
MVP: Tyler Smith

7. Michigan St. (5)
HNR: +19.5
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: UCLA
MVP: Drew Neitzel

8. Wisconsin (7)
HNR: +18.8
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: Marquette
MVP: Joe Krabbenhoft

9. Indiana (20)
HNR: +18.7
Best Win: Illinois St.
Worst Loss: Xavier
MVP: D.J. White

10. Georgetown (12)
HNR: +17.9
Best Win: Alabama
Worst Loss: Memphis
MVP: Roy Hibbert

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Mississippi (24), +17.9
12. Notre Dame (22), +17.8
13. New Mexico (NR), +17.3
14. Clemson (15), +17.0
15. Xavier (13), +17.0
16. Drake (NR), +16.7
17. Texas A&M (19), +16.5
18. Pittsburgh (17), +15.4
19. Arkansas (11), +15.2
20. Florida (18), +14.9
21. Texas (10), +14.8
22. Memphis (16), +14.7
23. Arizona (NR), +14.6
24. UCLA (9), +14.5
25. Syracuse (NR), +14.4
26. South Carolina (NR), +14.3
27. Florida St. (21), +14.1
28. Minnesota (NR), +14.0
29. Gonzaga (NR), +13.9
30. Oklahoma (NR), +13.9

New this Week: New Mexico, Drake, Arizona, Syracuse, South Carolina, Minnesota, Gonzaga, Oklahoma.
Disappearing this Week: Louisville, Butler, Kentucky, Creighton, Illinois, Washington St., George Mason, BYU.
On the Cusp: Mississippi St., Creighton, Washington St., Connecticut, Butler.

Hoops Nerd Ratings 12/17

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 02:40:00 +0000

The Hoops Nerd rankings will not be updated this week, basically because of the dearth of games during Finals Week. I will be around later in the week with some other stuff...

Hoops Nerd Ratings 12/10

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 14:00:00 +0000

This is the fourth update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given more weight as the season progresses. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.8
By adding a thunderous beat-down of Michigan to its resume, Duke is able to maintain its spot atop the Ratings. As has been written in this space before (and as Jonah Keri points out), the biggest difference between last season's Blue Devils and this iteration is that they are faster, playing at the 24th highest adjusted pace in the country.

2. Kansas (2)
Rating: +21.6
The Jayhawks beat up on Eastern Washington (now Stuckey-free and terrible!) and DePaul last week. Hopefully somebody will get Kansas guard Brandon Rush a day-planner book this holiday season.

3. Tennessee (3)
Rating: +20.7
Tennessee had a closer brush with the Mocs than they likely would have expected. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are structured in such a way (for a description of the innards, read here) that if the Volunteers can maintain the healthy margin established between themselves and the rest of the SEC, then they will likely remain very high in the overall ratings.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +20.5
The Tar Heels are 8 - 0 for the first time this century, after blowing out Penn last week. While the prevailing assumption in Chapel Hill is likely that UNC will enter conference play undefeated, the Tar Heels will face four consecutive better-than-one-might-think opponents from December 22nd to January 2: UCSB (+6.9 Hoops Nerd Rating), Nevada (+7.7), Valparaiso (+5.3), and Kent St. (+10.1).

5. Michigan St. (5)
Rating: +20.3
Michigan St. scored two decent non-conference wins last week, over Bradley and Brigham Young (the Spartans were underdogs in the latter). Izzo's is the top offensive rebounding team in the country (47.3 OR%, per kenpom), thanks primarily to Goran Suton (18.0), Raymar Morgan (14.1), and Marquise Gray (12.7).

6. West Virginia (13)
Rating: +20.2
The Mountaineers won two blowouts last week, over Auburn and Duquesne. West Virginia is currently ranked number one in the Pomeroy Ratings, but is stuck in the "also receiving votes" category in the Associated Press Poll (fourth listed in that category, so I suppose that makes them 29th). They are steadily climbing the Hoops Nerd Ratings because (a) they are staying ahead of the Big East pack in terms of efficiency, and (b) each week, current season data is given more weight relative to the pre-season ratings.

7. Wisconsin (9)
Rating: +19.8
The Badgers (having roundly beaten Wofford and narrowly lost to Marquette) are yet another example of a team that is looked more kindly upon by objective rating systems than subjective ones (35th in the AP, 5th in the KP), but for a slightly different reason than West Virginia. Wisconsin has two high profile losses (Duke, Marquette), but has absolutely trounced all other competition. To wit: against the six other opponents (IPFW, Savannah St., Florida A&M, Colorado, Georgia, Wofford), the Badgers have notched an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. The difference in how ratings systems view Wisconsin is rooted in how the systems account for margin of victory. Consider the two rating systems used by Jeff Sagarin, ELO Chess (which is only concerned with which teams beat which teams regardless of margin of victory) and Predictor (which takes degree of victory into account): Wisconsin ranks 35th in the ELO Chess and 13th in the Predictor. Not surprisingly, I'm with Pomeroy/Predictor, not AP/ELO Chess, on this one. While the AP (and ELO Chess) furtively tosses out a win over Savannah St. as meaningless, the truth is that there is still valuable information there, because beating Savannah St. by 47 points (as the Badgers did) is better than beating them by significantly less than that (like Colorado, Creighton and Northwestern have).

8. Marquette (10)
Rating: +19.7
The win over Wisconsin was helpful, and the loss to Duke is looking less and less objectionable as the weeks pass. If Marquette loses again in 2007, something will have gone horribly, horribly wrong, as their four remaining opponents this year are Sacramento St., IPFW, Coppin St., and Savannah St.

9. UCLA (7)
Rating: +19.4
The Bruins needed to overcome an 18 point deficit to win against ambitiously-scheduling Davidson (a team that just can't get over the hump: the Wildcats nearly beat North Carolina and Duke, before blowing the big lead against UCLA). Russell Westbrook (he of the award-winning haircut) is still playing a key role even after the return of Darren Collison.

10. Texas (6)
Rating: +18.9
The Longhorns are unbeaten and will likely remain so until December 22nd, when they face Michigan St. D.J. Augustin ranks in the top 100 nationally in Offensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and Assist Rate (all courtesy of kenpom), which essentially makes him the perfect point guard.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Arkansas (18), +18.7
12. Georgetown (8), +18.5
13. Xavier (16), +17.6
14. Louisville (11), +17.5
15. Clemson (14), +17.4
16. Memphis (12), +17.1
17. Pittsburgh (19), +16.4
18. Florida (17), +16.3
19. Texas A&M (20), +16.3
20. Indiana (21), +16.2
21. Florida St. (24), +15.8
22. Notre Dame (23), +15.8
23. Butler (22), +15.0
24. Mississippi (NR), +14.9
25. Kentucky (15), +14.5
26. Creighton (NR), +14.5
27. Illinois (28), +14.4
28. Washington St. (25), +14.4
29. George Mason (26), +14.1
30. BYU (29), +14.1

New this Week: Mississippi, Creighton
Disappearing this Week: Southern Illinois, Mississippi St.
On the Cusp: Missouri, Stanford, Oregon, Mississippi St., Maryland

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 13:43:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Creighton (+12.7) lost at Xavier (+17.5), 79-66. On the court, Xavier point guard Drew Lavender controlled the game, with 10 assists and an 84.6 effective field goal percentage, taking 13 shots in 25 minutes. Off the court, it was a sad and tragic day in Omaha, Nebraska (home to Creighton).

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): Iowa, an 11.5 point underdog, beat Northern Iowa, 62-55 in Cedar Falls. That the Hawkeyes best win of the season occurred on the same date as Tony Freeman's return from injury is no coincidence; with Adam Haluska's graduation and Tyler Smith's transfer, Freeman was to be Iowa's most prolific returnee this season. To wit: Freeman was 3 for 3 from three point range, with 5 for 7 overall shooting (good for 15 points) in only 24 minutes last night.

Superman Wears Dominique Jones Pajamas (the night's top performer): South Florida's freshman guard put up some gaudy superficial numbers against Richmond, which is rare because a Spiders game usually includes too few possessions for that sort of thing. Last night, however, the game was played at a 67.8 possession pace, which was obviously the Bulls dictation. In any event, here are some of Jones' tempo-free numbers:

Dominique Jones 12/5 vs. Richmond
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 87.5
Points per Weighted Shot: 1.83
Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 31.6
Free Throw Rate: 75.0

Hoops Nerd Ratings 12/03

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 22:52:00 +0000

This is the third update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given more weight as the season progresses. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Duke (Last Week: 3)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.1
Wins over Davidson (close) and Wisconsin (decidedly not close) delivered Duke to the top spot in this week's ratings. Their only game this week comes at home against a team that lost to Harvard last Saturday, so there is a high probability that the Blue Devils will maintain the pole position in these ratings for at least another week. If only ESPN would cease its blatantly anti-Duke agenda...

2. Kansas (1)
Rating: +22.4
Kansas' Rating improved since last week, but to a lesser extent that Duke's, so the Jayhawks fall to second place. I cannot possibly be the first person to write this, but what the hell: Rod(rick) Stewart is giving Kansas fans a Reason to Believe. Stewart leads the team with a 133.3 offensive rating and a 33.6 assist rate, per kenpom.com.

3. Tennessee (6)
Rating: +21.4
The Volunteers are moving the ball around this season (assists on 67.8% of their made field goals) and hitting their shots (55.3 effective field goal percentage), and playing at the high pace to which they have become accustomed in the Bruce Pearl era. Tennessee moves up this week on the basis of two blowouts, albeit against week competition.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.4
Living up to the lofty standard set by Gardner-Webb earlier this season, the Tar Heels beat Kentucky on Saturday. For the North Carolina fan on your Christmas list, some Duke satire.

5. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +21.4
The Spartans did nothing to deserve the three-spot drop in the Ratings, blowing out North Carolina St. and Jacksonville. Though it is somewhat obscured by the slow pace at which they play, Michigan St. has been totally dominant on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebound percentage of 45.8, second in the nation behind only Pitt.

6. Texas (16)
Rating: +19.4
Beating UCLA in Los Angeles is a pretty big deal. A lesson in context: Texas' offense is leading the nation in points per possession, but they are 17th in points per game.

7. UCLA (7)
Rating: +19.4
The Bruins lost The Big Game to Texas, but there is another one coming this week vs. a Davidson team that followed almost beating North Carolina with almost beating Duke. The best news of the week for UCLA was, of course, that Darren Collison played 26 minutes in a game against George Washington and made a full-blown 39-minute return from injury against Texas.

8. Georgetown (5)
Rating: +19.3
Well of course the Hoyas beat Old Dominion and Fairfield last week, and they should beat Alabama this week. The only top echelon opponent that Georgetown will face before 2008 is Memphis, on December 22nd. As expected, the Hoyas offense has been very good and very, very slow.

9. Wisconsin (8)
Rating: +19.0
A couple of hours from now, the Badgers will tip off in a game against Wofford, and no matter how big the blowout (Vegas says 28.5 points) it will not be enough to eliminate the memory of the terrible beating suffered at Cameron Indoor Stadium last week.

10. Marquette (15)
Rating: +19.0
The last good non-conference game of 2007 for Marquette (they've already played Duke and Oklahoma St.) is at Wisconsin this Saturday. After starting all 34 games last season, Ousmane Barro has come off the bench in every game so far this season; what's up with that?

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Louisville (9), +18.9
12. Memphis (11), +18.7
13. West Virginia (21), +18.3
14. Clemson (12), +17.9
15. Kentucky (10), +17.9
16. Xavier (19), +17.5
17. Florida (16), +17.2
18. Arkansas (18), +17.0
19. Pittsburgh (17), +16.8
20. Texas A&M (14), +16.0
21. Indiana (26), +16.0
22. Butler (23), +15.2
23. Notre Dame (27), +15.0
24. Florida St. (25), +14.9
25. Washington St. (22), +14.8
26. George Mason (NR), +14.5
27. Southern Illinois (20), +14.4
28. Illinois (29), +14.4
29. BYU (NR), +14.1
30. Mississippi St. (28), +13.8

New this Week: George Mason, BYU
Disappearing this Week: Ohio St., Missouri
On the Cusp: Oregon, Ohio St., Missouri, Connecticut, Vanderbilt

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 18:13:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Oklahoma (+12.3) (clearly no Mercer) lost by eleven to Southern California (+9.9) in Los Angeles. The second most famous Trojan freshman, Davon Jefferson, outplayed his celebrity cohort, contributing an effective field goal percentage of 58.3 (and a Free Throw Rate of 75) to Mayo's 44.7.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): Jeff Bzdelik's return to Clune Arena at the Air Force Academy was successful as his new team (Colorado) upset his old team (Air Force) by virtue of a ten point win as a seven point underdog. Buffs star Richard Roby - who claims to have used the anti-Bzdelik atmosphere as a motivational tool - nearly hit the elusive >1 Effective Field Goal Percentage threshold, coming in at 94.4 for the game (7 of 9 including 3 of 5 from deep).

Superman Wears Tony Lee Pajamas (the night's top performer): Robert Morris' senior guard made impressions in multiple columns on the Hoops Nerd's Excel workbook last night, accumulating significant amounts of points, steals, assists and rebounds. Adjusted for tempo, it looks like this:

Tony Lee 11/29 vs. Florida International
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 83.3
Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 24.8
Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 38.7
Assists per 100 Individual Possessions: 13.0
Steals per 100 Individual Possessions: 8.7

Hoops Nerd Ratings 11/26

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Mon, 26 Nov 2007 23:17:00 +0000

This is the second update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given low weight at this early point in the season. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Kansas (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +21.7
Having beaten both Northern Arizona (handily) and Arizona (not so handily) last week, Kansas maintains its position atop the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Jayhawk fans are still pretty focused on football, but the basketball squad is the real national title contender.

2. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +21.7
The narrow margin of the win over Oakland is of greater concern than the neutral-court loss to UCLA. Both the UCLA game and the win over Missouri (in the semi-finals of the same tournament) could have an impact on tournament seeding.

3. Duke (5)
Rating: +21.7
Mere hundredths of a point separate the Blue Devils from the top spot. Wins in Maui over Hoops Nerd Ratings top 30 cohorts Illinois and Marquette are duly impressive. In this space last week, I wrote about the relatively high probability of an upset in a game with relatively few possessions, using as an example that night's Duke vs. Princeton game. I was wrong on a couple of fronts: Duke blew-out the Tigers, and the Blue Devils are playing at a higher-than-expected (at least by me) pace, 48th quickest in D1 according to Ken Pomeroy's adjusted stats.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.6
Status quo for the Tar Heels, authors of an expected blow-out of South Carolina St. and expected moderately-sized wins over Old Dominion and BYU. John Gasaway wants to ensure that you appreciate the perennial quality of UNC's defense.

5. Georgetown (3)
Rating: +20.9
Just how grounded and stoic does one have to be to react to a nine-point road win over the program from which one's brother resigned as head coach among much controversy, with a quote like "Free throws and turnovers hurt us... [w]e've got to take care of that. I don't think we were flustered, we just didn't execute the way we were supposed to."?

6. Tennessee (13)
Rating: +20.0
Lose to Texas and move up seven spots? There are two reasons. Firstly, the Vols did beat West Virginia and lay unholy waste to Middle Tennessee St. this week. Secondly, by virtue of the way that the Hoops Nerd Ratings work, ratings within a given conference are zero-sum, so very poor weeks for Florida and Arkansas have had a positive impact on the ratings of Tennessee and Kentucky.

7. UCLA (8)
Rating: +19.8
Already without Darren Collison, James Keefe and Michael Roll, Bruins fans were relieved to learn that Alfred Aboya will be able to play through his fractured orbital bone, likely with some really cool goggles. The win over Michigan St. was uniquely viewed by the Hoops Nerd Ratings as an upset.

8. Wisconsin (9)
Rating: +19.5
These ratings would look very fondly at a road-win over Duke tomorrow evening in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. When is a returning starter not a returning starter? When he's on the bench - senior guard Michael Flowers started every game last season but is in the sixth-man role this season.

9. Louisville (6)
Rating: +19.5
Well that didn't go as planned. BYU perpetrated a rude pre-emptive strike against what was to be a North Carolina vs. Louisville final in the Las Vegas Invitational. The pre-conference-play schedule is peppered with BYU-style better-than-you-might-think competition, including Miami (OH), Dayton and New Mexico St., so the Padgettless Cardinals had better be on guard.

10. Kentucky (15)
Rating: +19.1
North Carolina's trip to Rupp Arena this Saturday will provide the hosts with an opportunity to move further up these rankings.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Memphis (7), +18.7
12. Clemson (11), +18.6
13. Texas (16), +18.4
14. Texas A&M (12), +18.2
15. Marquette (19), +17.7
16. Florida (10), +17.5
17. Pittsburgh (23), +17.5
18. Arkansas (14), +17.2
19. Xavier (27), +16.1
20. Southern Illinois (18), +15.9
21. West Virginia (22), +15.8
22. Washington St. (30), +15.4
23. Butler (NR), +15.2
24. Ohio St. (24), +15.1
25. Florida St. (28), +15.0
26. Indiana (20), +14.9
27. Notre Dame (17), +14.9
28. Mississippi St. (21), +14.9
29. Illinois (NR), +14.5
30. Missouri (NR), +14.5

New this Week: Butler, Illinois, Missouri
Disappearing this Week: Oregon, North Carolina St., Virginia
On the Cusp: Oregon, North Carolina St., Maryland, BYU, Connecticut

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Sat, 24 Nov 2007 15:02:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Experience reigned as Florida St. (+14.6) topped Florida (+18.9), 65 - 51. The average class for Florida St. in last night's game, weighted by minutes played, was 3.3, or Junior.3, if that makes sense; for Florida, it was 1.5, or Freshman.5.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): see above. The Seminoles were 9.5 point underdogs in Gainesville. Jason Rich led the way for Florida St. with 11 rebounds and a 61.5 effective field goal percentage.

Superman Wears D.J. Augustin Pajamas (the night's top performer): the sophomore guard played 38 wonderful minutes in last night's Legends Classic in Newark, N.J. The context-adjusted numbers:

D.J. Augustin 11/23 vs. New Mexico St.
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 80.0
Assists per 100 Individual Possessions: 14.7
Steals per 100 Individual Possessions: 5.9

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Thu, 22 Nov 2007 15:00:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Duke (+21.2) notched a four-point win over Marquette (+16.0), 77 - 73 in Maui. The AP would have called this an upset (number 13 beating number 11), but the Hoops Nerd Ratings knew better (number 5 beating number 19). The Blue Devils are playing much faster than last season, at an adjusted tempo of 73.8 relative to last season's 65.9, per the numbers at kenpom.com.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): it seems odd to even type this, but the Manhattan Jaspers were the devourer of last night's poison cupcake, squandering a ten point halftime lead to lose by four to Eastern Michigan. The Eagles were an eight point underdog.

Superman Wears Malcolm Thomas Pajamas (the night's top performer): yes, it was a fast-paced game that went into overtime (thus inflating the raw numbers) but it was still a very good context-adjusted game for the Pepperdine freshman:

Malcolm Thomas 11/21 vs. Long Beach St.
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 63.6
Free Throw Rate: 54.55
Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 43.7
Blocks per 100 Individual Possessions: 4.0

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 17:49:00 +0000

On Hoops Nerd Christmas (also known as The Release Date)...

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): there are no shortage of places to read up on UCLA's (+19.2) comeback victory over Michigan St. (+22.2) - mostly with glowing reviews of Kevin Love's performance - but it's important to note that he did commit five turnovers and had an effective field goal percentage of 40%. Possessions are the currency in basketball, and while we are quick to laud a players for converting them into points (hitting shots) or retaining them (offensive rebounding), sometimes we overlook a player's careless inefficiency in squandering (missing shots) or relinquishing (turning the ball over) possessions. That is: it was a great game by Love (particularly in drawing fouls), but there is still work to do on the efficiency front.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): in a night of relatively few upsets, the most prolific was Towson's win - as a four point underdog - over Samford. There have been multiple significant upsets virtually every night up until last. If there are fewer upsets as the season progresses, does that simply mean that odds-makers are getting better at identifying which teams ought to be favored? Or does being favored affect the outcome itself? Only at Hoops Nerd do we talk about this kind of stuff... I mean, when was the last time Andy Katz or Dick Vitale* invoked Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle?
*"It's existential BABY!!!"

Superman Wears Eric Gordon Pajamas (the night's top performer): Indiana's freshman Guard makes the first of what could be many appearances in this space. The context-adjusted stats:

Eric Gordon 11/20 vs. UNC Wilmington
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 75.0
Free Throw Rate: 100.0
Assists per 100 Possessions: 9.1
Turnovers per 100 Possessions: 3.0

Hoops Nerd Ratings: 11/19

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Mon, 19 Nov 2007 21:57:00 +0000

The Hoops Nerd Ratings, are due for their first update of the season. Not much has changed since the preseason ratings, of course, but two teams have dropped from the Hoops Nerd Ratings Top 30.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given low weight at this early point in the season. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Kansas (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.4
Not much to see here. Brandon Rush is back and the Jayhawks have predictably beaten up on Louisiana-Monroe, UMKC and something called Washburn (the weakest schedule this side of Jayhawks Football). Things get tougher beginning on Sunday when Arizona steps into the Phog.

2. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +22.2
The Spartans notched easy victories over Louisiana-Monroe and Chicago St., but they'll be acutely tested about three hours from now when they face the Missouri Tigers in Kansas City. Luckily for Michigan St., the exhibition loss to Grand Valley St. and near-loss to Michigan Tech are not considered here. Drew Neitzel is the small-sample-size hero so far; he is 6 for 9 from three-point range and has 13 assists to one turnover.

3. Georgetown (3)
Rating: +22.1
William & Mary posed more of a challenge to the Hoyas than did Michigan, but at any rate they are undefeated on the young season. Wednesday's trip to Muncie, Indiana to play Ball State has a compelling and well-documented storyline - I'll be watching.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.4
The Tar Heels are tied with UCLA atop the Coach's Poll, but are three spots below that in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Only two points per 67 possessions separate North Carolina from Kansas in the rankings, and as the season goes on and the current data is weighed more heavily, the Heels will have an opportunity to quickly close the gap. Yes it's a hackneyed and stale phrase, but UNC layed the smack down* on Iona.
* narrowly chosen over "opened up a can".

5. Duke (5)
Rating: +21.2
The more possessions that there are in a game, the truer the result - this is a matter of sample size. Intuitively, we all know this; if a high school team played the Boston Celtics in a one-possession game, there is at least some chance that the high school team could win. In a ten possession game, there might be some tiny probability of the Celts losing, and in a 100 possession game the high school team would have no chance. So: fewer possessions means more upsets. In a related story, Duke (the 203rd fastest team in D1 last season) plays Princeton (the slowest in D1) tonight in Maui.

6. Louisville (8)
Rating: +19.5
The first big mover in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings, the Cardinals leaped over Memphis and UCLA. In bleaker news, the schedule is about to get tougher (tougher than Hartford and Jackson St. you ask? Yes.) and David Padgett is out for at least ten weeks with a knee injury. With Padgett gone, Louisville is one Big Mac Extra Value Meal away from having no offensive rebounding at all.

7. Memphis (7)
Rating: +19.4
Memphis beat Connecticut in a Hoops Nerd Clash of the Titans, and also has a win over Oklahoma. The Tigers' schedule has been tough, and will continue to be so until the new year, relative to other top ten teams, presumably to compensate for their being in Conference USA. Andy Katz has a pretty good assessment of Memphis.

8. UCLA (6)
Rating: +19.2
The Bruins are undefeated but the first real test tips off tonight when they face Maryland in Kansas City. While the nation is focused on the battle of which Los Angeles freshman with garner the most pun-invoking headlines ("Hold the Mayo", "All You Need is Love", etc.), UCLA coach Howland is doing a laudable job recruiting the next crop.

9. Wisconsin (12)
Rating: +19.0
The Badgers won four games last week, and the closest one was a 28 point drubbing of IPFW. The Hoops Nerd is looking forward to next Tuesday's Wisconsin @ Duke game.

10. Florida (16)
Rating: +18.9
The Gators are the biggest mover in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings, up six spots. Plenty of bandwidth has been dedicated to the discussion of talent lost from last year's team, but not to worry: when football season is over, the former contributions of Jaokim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green can be easily replaced by Tim Tebow.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Clemson (11), +18.6
12. Texas A&M (10), +18.3
13. Tennessee (9), +17.5
14. Arkansas (13), +17.3
15. Kentucky (14), +17.1
16. Texas (19), +16.2
17. Notre Dame (23), +16.0
18. Southern Illinois (18), +16.0
19. Marquette (15), +16.0
20. Indiana (27), +15.9
21. Mississippi St. (24), +15.9
22. West Virginia (29), +15.5
23. Pittsburgh (21), +15.4
24. Ohio St. (17), +14.8
25. Oregon (25), +14.8
26. North Carolina St. (20), +14.7
27. Xavier (26), +14.7
28. Florida St. (22), +14.6
29. Virginia (NR), +14.2
30. Washington St. (NR), +14.2

Dropped: Maryland, Illinois

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 20:00:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Virginia (+13.9) defeated Arizona (+10.3). The Cats are still bothered by having lost to the Cavs by three points last season... and it happened again.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): Cleveland St. upset Florida St. in the Glenn Wilkes Classic tournament in Daytona Beach, FL. The Vikings built an 18 - 4 lead but needed overtime for the win. Cleveland St. was a 12.5 point underdog.

Superman Wears Kyle Landry Pajamas (the night's top performer): the Northern Arizona senior went 8 of 10 from the field with 14 rebounds and 10 trips to the free throw line. The context-adjusted stats were just as impressive:

Kyle Landry 11/17 vs. UMKC
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 80.0
Free Throw Rate: 70.0
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 36.3
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 28.9

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 17:12:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): things worked essentially as planned for Memphis (+19.7) in an 81 - 70 win over Connecticut (+13.4) in the final of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, as Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts did the scoring while Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier did the rebounding.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): Providence - without its top three point shooter from last season, Sharaud Curry - beat Arkansas by 16 points in Puerto Rico. An atrocious 42.6 turnover percentage (32 turnovers on 75 possessions) sealed Arkansas' fate.

Superman Wears Donte Greene Pajamas (the night's top performer): the Syracuse freshman forward helped the Orange beat up on Fordham 80 - 63. The numbers you need to know:

Donte Greene 11/16 vs. Fordham
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 82.1
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 27.1

Last Night in Hoops

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 13:06:00 +0000

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Clemson (+18.1) defeated Mississippi St. (+14.9) in Starkville. The Tigers were able to win - despite shooting only 34.3% (40.0% effective field goal percentage) - on the strength of 38 trips to the free throw line and 19 Mississippi St. turnovers.

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): the San Jose State Spartans went to Middle Tennessee State's First Shot tournament in Murfreesboro and beat the hosts by a single point on a bucket by DeShawn Wright with five seconds remaining. San Jose State was an 11 point underdog.

Superman Wears J.J. Hickson Pajamas (the night's top performer): the freshman Forward/Center for the North Carolina St. Wolfpack dropped 31 points on William & Mary last night with 12 of 12 shooting and seven rebounds. Below please find the real stats; If these stats are new and confusing to you, please check out any of the glossaries/primers on tempo-free and context-corrected basketball stats floating around the internets - there is a good one at the Phog Blog, for instance.

J.J. Hickson 11/15 vs. William & Mary
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 100.0
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 20.8
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 6.2
Free Throw Rate: 50.0

Preseason Hoops Nerd Ratings

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 23:18:00 +0000

What are the Hoops Nerd Ratings? Read here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in expected +/- points per 67 possessions against average competition. There are some results here that go strongly against public opinion, and there is something to consider while doing a spit-take on your LCD: there is nothing subjective in these ratings, so whereas the analysis-model, described in the aforelinked post, is fair game for criticism, allegations of bias extrinsic to the model are unfounded.

These ratings will be updated on a weekly basis. There are almost as many sets of "power rankings" on the internet as there are teams in the Big East, but here at Hoops Nerd you will find a sort of peculiar objectivity that you won't find elsewhere.

Preseason Top 30

1. Kansas
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.5
Preseason AP: 4
Kansas returns everybody but Julian Wright, but will have to deal with early season injuries to Brandon Rush (will return soon) and Sherron Collins (won’t return soon). They’ve beaten up on early November cannon-fodder UMKC and Louisiana Monroe. Kansas figures to dominate its own conference to a greater extent than any of its power conference cohorts.

2. Michigan State
Rating: +22.3
Preseason AP: 8
Every Spartan who logged significant minutes last season is back for what should be a successful run through an Oden-free Big Ten. I’m somewhat skeptical about the AP’s selection of Drew Neitzel as a preseason All-American and there is a disconnect: if Neitzel is the best point guard in the country (which the AP contends), then the Spartans – who return everybody and were a top 15 team a season ago – should surely be ranked higher than 8^th (preseason AP rank).

3. Georgetown
Rating: +22.3
Preseason AP: 5
Jeff Green is gone but Roy Hibbert remains for the Hoyas, which is better than the converse would be – Hibbert was the superior player last season besting Green in Effective Field Goal Percentage and Offensive and Defensive Rebounding Percentages. A December 22^nd showdown with Memphis is a gem on the national pre-conference play schedule.

4. North Carolina
Rating: +21.1
Preseason AP: 1
Losing Brandon Wright and Reyshawn Terry is going to hurt, but Tyler “Psycho T” Hansbrough is about to go bat-guano-insane on the ACC. The Tar Heels nearly lost to Davidson on a neutral court on Wednesday night, which is entirely defensible but may have some AP voters feeling apprehensive about their preseason darling.

5. Duke
Rating: +20.6
Preseason AP: 13
This is probably the first spit-take inducement among these rankings, but consider that (a) everybody except for Josh McRoberts returns to Cameron, (b) freshman Kyle Singler is one of the ACC’s (if not the country’s) top new-comers, and, most importantly, (c) Duke was much better than its record last season, recording 9.7 Pythagorean wins in-conference relative to only 8 actual conference victories.

6. UCLA
Rating: +20.1
Preseason AP: 2
Like the other teams near the top of the rankings, the Bruins bring back most of their key contributors from last season; in fact, only Arron Afflalo is missing. When guard Darren Collison returns from his injury, which should be sometime during November, UCLA will be at full-force.

7. Memphis
Rating: +19.7
Preseason AP: 3
There is no credible challenger to the Tigers within Conference USA, and that fact will undoubtedly lead to a gaudy (if not perfect) conference record. Memphis will earn its tournament seed this fall with a difficult non-conference schedule that includes Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and USC.

8. Louisville
Rating: +19.6
Preseason AP: 6
Virtually everybody returns for Rick Pitino this season – of its vast array of Big East brethren only Marquette and Connecticut have lost less talent. When Palacios gets healthy and if Caracter stays fit, Louisville should contend for a conference title.

9. Tennessee
Rating: +18.5
Preseason AP: 7
Tennessee’s place atop of the SEC is as much attributable to the fact that Noah, Horford, Brewer, Green, Humphrey and Richard have fled Gainesville as it is to the high incumbency rate at Rocky Top. Not only is everybody back (save for Dane Bradshaw), but Iowa transfer Tyler Smith (Big Ten All-Freshman team last season) was given compassionate clearance by the NCAA to suit-up for Tennessee immediately.

10. Texas A&M
Rating: +18.2
Preseason AP: 16
Yes, Acie Law is gone (so is Antanas Kavaliauskas), but left behind is a talented trio in Josh Carter, Joseph Jones and Dominique Kirk. Freshman seven-footer DeAndre Johnson is a burgeoning force in the Big Twelve. This was the seventh best team in the country last season, and it would be a mistake to myopically concentrate on the loss of Law to the neglect of the remaining talent – that is, the Aggies are still a very good team.

Preseason 11 - 30

11. Clemson
Rating: +18.1
Preseason AP: n/a

12. Wisconsin
Rating: +18.1
Preseason AP: n/a

13. Arkansas
Rating: +17.8
Preseason AP: 19

14. Kentucky
Rating: +17.5
Preseason AP: 20

15. Marquette
Rating: +17.4
Preseason AP: 11

16. Florida
Rating: +17.3
Preseason AP: n/a

17. Ohio St.
Rating: +16.6
Preaseason AP: n/a

18. Southern Illinois
Rating: +16.5
Preseason AP: 24

19. Texas
Rating: +15.4
Preseason AP: 15

20. North Carolina St.
Rating: +15.2
Preseason AP: 21

21. Pittsburgh
Rating: +15.0
Preseason AP: 22

22. Florida St.
Rating: +15.0
Preseason AP: n/a

23. Notre Dame
Rating: +15.0
Preseason AP: n/a

24. Mississippi St.
Rating: +14.9
Preseason AP: n/a

25. Oregon
Rating: +14.7
Preseason AP: 12

26. Xavier
Rating: +14.7
Preseason AP: n/a

27. Indiana
Rating: +14.6
Preseason AP: 9

28. Maryland
Rating: +14.4
Preseason AP: n/a

29. West Virginia
Rating: +14.4
Preseason AP: n/a

30. Illinois
Rating: +14.3
Preseason AP: n/a

Hoops Nerd Ratings

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 19:46:00 +0000

What are the Hoops Nerd Ratings?

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are my college basketball rating system. They are expressed as either positive or negative points per 67 possessions. The goal is to measure how well a team can be expected to perform against average competition over the span of a 67 possession game, that being somewhere near the national average for tempo.

What makes the Hoops Nerd Ratings Unique?

The Hoops Nerd Ratings differ from other tempo-free efficiency ratings primarily in that current season data is transposed onto expected levels of performance and variance among the teams in each conference. That is, data from the past four seasons has been used to produce expected averages and standard deviations for each conference. By transposing current data onto these conference expectations in terms of quality and variance, we are able to properly situate each conference's average to the historical norm to which is it likely to regress over time, as well as get some insight into whether or not "breakout" teams are real.

For example, the Atlantic Ten has a very high expected standard deviation - because it is traditionally home to both very good (Xavier, for instance) and very bad (St. Bonaventure, for instance) teams - so if a team is having a real breakout season or a real stinker relative to its A-10 conference-mates, we can see that it is more likely to be maintained going forward than, say, a similar early-season outlier in the typically tight Big Sky Conference. The same principle applies to the transposition of the data onto the expected average of the conference.

This is essentially a contextual regression-to-the-mean process. We know how many points per 67 possessions that a z-score (number of standard deviations) is worth in each conference, and how well each conference is expected to perform, so Hoops Nerd Ratings take advantage of this.

How are the Numbers Made Early in the Season

The preseason ratings are made using a combination of the following factors:

The previous season's data. The correlation of +/- points per 67 possessions for teams in the top 22 conferences is around .80 from season to season, so previous season's data is by far the most important factor;
The incumbency rate of the given team's key contributors from last season, on a weighted-to-contribution basis, and
The strength of each team's top two recruits.

Last season's data is adjusted based on incumbency rate and recruit rating, using historic year-to-year variance levels of teams within the given conference. The yields numbers that are transposed onto our expectations scale as described above, the same way that in-season data is. As the season progresses, less and less weight is attributed to the preseason ratings.

Daddy, Where does Raw Data Come From?

It comes from the lovely and talented Ken Pomeroy, whose adjusted efficiency statistics get squeezed, beaten and shaped through the methods listed above.

Who are You? What is this Place?

noreply@blogger.com (Leigh) — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 19:32:00 +0000

My name is Leigh and I am a College Basketball addict.

What you will see here at Hoops Nerd are my thoughts and ideas about contemporary issues in the world of College Hoops, and a dizzying array of numbers. Appropriately enough, I am a nerd: I can't dribble or shoot, but I excel at Excel.

One thing you will notice about my blog is I make frequent reference to statistics with names like "Effective Field Goal Percentage", adjectives like "Tempo-Free", and ideas like "Four Factors". If these things are new to you, you should consider reading up on some of the primers that have been written by people with greater understanding than I - such as Ken Pomeroy or the KnickerBlogger.

I hope that you enjoy Hoops Nerd.