Horse Racing Tips and Picks by the Kid

Keeneland Bluegrass Stakes Pick: Queen'splatekitten

2011-04-16T12:08:00.000-07:00

Bluegrass Stakes

#12: Queen'splatekitten-12/1ML- I use to love the bluegrass as a Derby prep, but in recent years, the form just has held up with the advent of polytrack, but this is a great betting race. Santiva has form over the track and they're are several B grade runners like Crimson China, Wilkinson, and King Congie, who could step up and run.

But I'm going with the Woodbine shipper-Queen'splatekitten. Showed an nice turn of foot over the poly at woodbine and I love the connections confidence in prepping for the queen's plate (thus the name of the horse), south of the border. Don't like the post, but the horse will drop back and make a run.

Arkansas Derby Pick: The Factor

2011-04-15T09:18:00.000-07:00

Yes, thats right, you're not going to hear anything different from me, then what anyone else is saying.

Looking over the race, I just don't see it being any other way and the reason is that this whole field, except for The Factor, seem to still be trying to find themselves.

Archarcharch, Elite Alex, Nehro...etc. They've all been on everyone's watch list, but what have they done? Of those, only Nehro has made any noise this year. And what is with all these trainer's adding blinkers for this race? Are they all thinking their going to challenge the favorite on the front end?

It semms, while every trainer in this race is still searching for the magic bullet, Baffert has his gun loaded and is taking dead aim on the derby. He knows what he's got. A fast horse with a high cruising speed, and he's trained him that way. Steady 6f works, putting the stamina in him. Getting him to harness that speed.

My guess is, the half split in the Arkansas Derby will be around 46 flat, and I just think that only plays further into the Factor's hands. I don't know if this colt can win the derby, but I think the race this weekend is his to lose.

Uncle Mo has infection

2011-04-14T09:45:00.000-07:00

Apparently the blood work cameback and said Uncle Mo has a GI tract Infection. It shouldn't effect his training for the Kentucky Derby. This could be a reason for a poor performance.

Santa Anita Selections: 4/14/11

2011-04-14T09:21:00.000-07:00

Race 1: #9 Compass Rock- 8/1ML- I don't really like these 2f dashes for the babies, but its on the card, so lets take a shot with a colt thats bred to be quick, from a barn that gets horses running early. Note the jock brought over Los Al.

Race 2: #5 Park Time Luck-9/5- You just can't ignore Carava and La Canada in these races, short price favorite should get the job done. Best tactical speed and has the field at its mercy from the outside.

Race 3: #4 Rock Solid King-3/1ML- Good vibes from this one, PVal up.

Race 4: #1 Trumpet Player Jay-5/2ML- Should drop back and get a good trip in behind the speed. Will be coming late.

Race 5: #4 Trastevere-7/2ML- Will have improve a bit against these, but I don't like the fav in here and this colt looks to have the right style for the pace set up.

Race 6: #3 Highly Composed-12/1ML- Cassidy is a master with these horses. Has some of the best numbers at the distance in the field, should be there at a price.

Race 7: #4 Preamble-5/2ML- Well slotted against this group and loves the distance. Should be a bit better then the morning line with the 3 taking all the cash early.

Race 8: #3 Tiz O' Gold-4/1ML- Everyone will be playing the 1 and the 7, will get a good price on a filly thats already shown some ability. Fav's look suspect.

Barefoot Lady wins Nell Gwyn stakes

2011-04-13T08:13:00.001-07:00

Barefoot Lady got the best of a blanket finish in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket, just nosing out the Aiden O'Brian filly, Sing Softly.

Arthur's Tale out of Derby

2011-04-13T08:04:00.001-07:00

bloodhorse.com is reporting that Wood Memorial second place finisher, Arthur's Tale, popped a splint and is out of the Derby. His Trainer, Tom Albertrani, say the Bernardini colt will be pointed to the belmont. Let's hope for a quick recovery.

Aqueduct Selections: 4/13/11

2011-04-13T07:49:00.000-07:00

Race 1: #3 Good Luck Lucy-2/1ML- I expect the 2 horse to take most of the play in here and leave this 3 horse as the best value in the race. Should get a good trip just off the speed.

Race 2: #2 Bwana Babe-2/1ML- I actually love the straight 1 in here, Halo Hollie, but the entry mate will kill all value and the 2 fits well in this race. Should provide the best value.

Race 3: #5 Zio Tony-12/1ML- Looking over this race, I just have a feeling that a price will emerge from this small field. This horse has good class ratings, quick 12 day turn around says he's ready to fire.

Race 4: #7 Dorian Will-6/1ML- The favorite looks strong in here, but it's hard to take 8/5 in a 14 horse field. The 7 has a tactical advantage and should get the jump on the 11. I expect a good price on this horse.

Race 5: #2 How's Bayou-2/5ML- Yeah, lone speed, class of the field and a jockey/trainer combo that hits at over 20%. Skip this race for straight bets, unless you can find value in horizontal plays.

Race 6: !/1a Banker's Buy-5/2ML- Zito entry looks strong in this mid-week stakes race.

Race 7: #8 Tutti Va Bene-25/1ML- Bombs Away. Not sure we'll get all of that morning line, this line seemed a bit off in this race. Expect 8 or 9 to 1.

Race 8: #6 Alla Prima-12/1ML-Zito and Lopez haven't teamed up with much success yet, but this filly has the best speed in the field and fits well in this class level. Should be a very fair price.

Race 9: #12 Glory Wit A Story-5/2ML- This bottom level Maiden turf races are always super tough. Only three horses have tried the distance before. This one is the best of that group.

Arkansas Derby: Looking back to Afleet Alex

2011-04-12T11:15:00.000-07:00

The kentucky Derby is a dream, everyone who's even sniffed a racehorse wants to win it. But recently, I keep thinking back to a horse who didn't win it, but should have.

Afleet Alex

With the Arkansas Derby coming up this weekend and the horse of the moment 'The Factor' running, I thought we might look back to a past winner.

In 2005, Afleet Alex, a top two year old of 2004, was coming into the Arkansas Derby off a disappointing effort in the Rebel stakes, supposedly due to a lung infection that wasn't caught beforehand. Whatever the reason was, many felt that Afleet Alex just hadn't sustained his form from his 2 to 3 year old year, as often happens.

But instead of finishing up the track, Afleet Alex showed that he was going to be a force in the 2005 triple crown.

He would gone on to finish 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Display unbelievable agility in winning the preakness (Still can't believe he didn't fall down, much less win). Then in what was to be the final race of his career, he used an indescribable kick to win the Belmont, perhaps the most devastating turn of foot I've ever seen.

I believe this colt was unlucky not to win the triple crown, he had all the tools, and showed that win luck abandoned him, he'd make his own. The mark of a true champion.

Turf Paradise Selections: 4/12/11

2011-04-12T09:49:00.000-07:00

Race 1: #4 Protect The Ring- 5/1 ML

Race 2: #4 Lordgivemealift- 5/2ML- Chambers special

Race 3: #8 Worth A Lot-5/1ML- Looking for this one to make an improvement on the stretchout

Race 4: #4 Ilikechocolatemilk-2/1ML- Hard knockin horse, connections provide a positive ROI

Race 5: #8 Future Search-3/1ML- Strong pace from the outside and in against weaker.

Race 6: #3 Whatusaywhatumean-12/1ML- Looks to have a class edge. Jock has been riding well lately.

Race 7: #4 Fight On Gino-8/5 ML- Doesn't look beatable on paper, but you never know.

Race 8: #2 Havasu-6/1ML- Wide open race. The 2 should get a good trip behind the speed.

Race 9: #11 Cypress Sam-7/2ML- Best on paper if he can get tucked in from the outside post position. Should show good speed.

Kentucky Derby 2011: 4 weeks out

2011-04-11T09:28:00.000-07:00

Head, meet wall.

This weekend was messier then the english language on an episode of the Jersey shore. We lost Premier Pegasus, we lost To Honor And Serve, Uncle Mo just plain lost; and Jaycito has a hoof bruise and will be trying to prep in the Lexington stakes at Keeneland.

Bang.

That was my head against the wall.

What are we left with? The factor? A confirmed speedball, by a sprinter, out of a sprinter. Yay! That screams derby winner.

What about Santiva, or Toby's Corner? They hardly leave one breathless.

In the end, we're left with a wide open derby, like it always is, but if they're was ever a year to bet heavily on 'the field' this is it. We'll have to see what develops in the next few weeks, but at this point, the best word to describe the likely 2011 Kentucky Derby is...Boring.

Parx Racing Selections: 4/11/11

2011-04-11T08:53:00.000-07:00

Race 1: #3 French Moon- Will Be the prohibitive favorite, but I can't get around him in here. Perhaps skip the race or try and find value in the horizontal bets. 1/1

Race 2: #7 Galofmydreams- Suspect group here. The seven should show some pace from the outside and get a good stalking position. We shall see. 6/1

Race 3: #6 Needtogetpaid- There isn't much seperating 3, maybe 4 of these. The six should have the tactical advantage. Once again, spread in horizontal bets. And my god, who names these horses? 3/1

Race 4: #6 Race Caller Luke- Looks like this one is exciting better races. Should get a decent price with the 9/1 morning line. 9/1

Race 5: #6 On the level- Looks to just be better then these....I'm starting to see a theme with my picks. 5/2

Race 6: #2 Quiet Link- The firster"s look like their going to get backed in here, but I don't like horses making their debut going a route of ground, especially at this level of competition. I'll go with the best of the experience. 6/1

Race 7: #3 Tar Beach- Not much between the top two choices in here, so we'll go with the better price. 4/1

Race 8: #8 See the forest- On numbers there might be better in here, but this horse appears to be moving in the right direction for the win. 5/1

Race 9: #3 Dapper Devil- I can't really say I like this race. There are a ton of different races to go and the pace looks to be pear shaped. 4/1

Race 10: #3 Big D- Horse stands out on numbers alone, should get a good trip tracking the speed. Place a wager and hope for the best. 3/1

Joyful Victory wins Fantasy Stakes

2011-04-10T16:00:00.000-07:00

Joyful Victory cruised to a convincing win in the Fantasy stakes at Oaklawn Park. The gray daughter of Tapit, appears to be one of the top choices for the Kentucky Oaks. Is it just me or are the fillies better then the colts this year?

Uncle Mo Grabbed a Quarter-Derby Trail News

2011-04-10T13:20:00.000-07:00

The bloodhorse.com reported this morning that two year old champion Uncle Mo, grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate of the Wood Memorial. Todd Pletcher said it was only slight and shouldn't effect the colts preparations for the Kentucky derby, if he and owner Mike Repole, do indeed start they're champion in that race.

The feeling here, is that Uncle Mo was traveling well at the quarter pole and just got run down by a couple of improving three year olds, in Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale.

Uncle Mo's connections are going to do some blood work on the colt in a few days, just to be sure it wasn't something else.

Fantasy Stakes Pick: Oaklawn Park

2011-04-10T11:48:00.001-07:00

Joyful Victory: In 2002 I saw Azeri run at Del Mar in the Clement L. Hirsch. She was made of a different ilk, an absolute queen, before there was a Queen Z. So my heart lays with her swift daughter Arienza, who is coming off of two impressive scores over the track.

But my head is telling me Joyful Victory, the gray filly for Larry Jones, coming off of a powerful win in the Honeybee stakes, is too much horse.

We shall see.

Midnight Interlude wins Santa Anita Derby

2011-04-09T17:20:00.001-07:00

Bob baffart wins his 6th Santa Anita Derby with Midnight Interlude. Jaycito, thought to be Baffart's best chance at the win. Was scratched yesterday. The final time for the 9f was 1:48.66.

A shout out to the Peter Miller trained Comma To The Top, who ran super game in defeat.

Cambina Wins Providencia

2011-04-09T16:44:00.000-07:00

Graded stakes winner Cambina came from well of the pace and blew through a hole on the inside to win the GR2 Providencia stakes at Santa Anita on saturday. The final time for a mile and an eighth was 1:47.28

Uncle Mo Defeated in Wood Memorial

2011-04-09T14:55:00.000-07:00

Toby's Corner wins Wood Memorial over Arthur's Tale, Uncle Mo, third.

The 2 year old champ had it all his own way and just got swallowed up late. This is kind of what I mean. You can't handle a derby contender with kid gloves and expect him to always punch back when challenged.

congrats to the winner Toby's Corner.

Santa Anita Derby Pick

2011-04-09T10:49:00.001-07:00

Mr. Commons: With the defection of the two favorites, Premier Pegasus and Jaycito, this race becomes a wide open dash. You have a couple of B grade horses, Silver Medallion and Anthony's Cross, both capable of taking down the graded earnings. But I'm going to go with what I feel is the most talented colt in the field. The John Sherriffs trained Mr. Commons. He's coming off of a workman like Allowance win going a mile, but he was close to the pace and I think it negated his kick a little. I see Mike Smith taking him further off a contested pace and making a big move on the turn. Whether he's got the experience or not, to win, I don't know, but I think he's got the talent.

Wood Memorial Pick

2011-04-09T10:05:00.001-07:00

Uncle Mo: There really isn't much you can say. Even if he's suspect at the distance, he lords over this group on class alone. Should be a fairly easy win, speed will carry him well to the mile and then he'll cruise the last eight. Honestly, I don't see him getting much out of this race, I would have rather seen him in the Flordia Derby or even the Arkansas Derby. In my mind the path of least resistance, isn't always the way to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs.

AP Indy Pensioned from Stud Duty

2011-04-08T09:13:00.000-07:00

The Grand old man, AP Indy, has been pensioned at Lane's End farm, where the 22 year old stallion sired 135 stakes winners. We wish nothing but happy days for this truly great stallion.

Lets take a look at that low head action again...he was truly one of a kind.

Premier Pegasus out of Santa Anita Derby

2011-04-08T09:08:00.000-07:00

It was reported yesterday that San Felipe winner, Premier Pegasus, has been sidelined with a slight fracture in his left cannon bone. He will be out 3 or 4 months. But the Kentucky Derby is now out of the question.

Its really to bad, I thought this colt looked like he had the right style for a good run in the Derby.

Quick Pick Of the day: 4/7/11 Santa Anita Race 5

2011-04-07T10:30:00.000-07:00

Santa Anita

Race 5: TIME GONE BY - Well bred son of Giant's Causeway goes 9f for the first time, towers over these in terms of numbers and upside. Mandella has been winning at a 20% clip as of late. Should relish the distance and has good tactical speed to keep position. 5/2 ML

Good value at 2/1 or better.

Kentucky Derby Contender: Premier Pegasus

2011-04-07T09:06:00.000-07:00

Kentucky Derby 2011 looks to be full of speedy types, we've already covered one of those, The Factor. But of all the hopefuls we've seen run so far this year, the only one that has shown the explosive sit and kick style that can be so successful come derby day, is Premier Pegasus. A son of 2000 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus and out of a mare by classic winner and derby sire Summer Squall, this colt can certainly get the distance. He was precocious as a two year old, winning the Hollywood Prevue and ran well in defeat going seven furlongs in the San Vicente.

But it wasn't until the blinks came off and this colt went two turns in the San Felipe, that we saw what he's really made of. Sitting 8 or 10 lengths off the pace and then exploding around the turn, drawing off from the competition, including a comebacking Jaycito.

At first, I was a bit concerned about how hard the jock rode him to the wire, hitting him several times with the whip and pushing him all the way home, when the race was sewed up. But on hindsight, that is what these derby horses need. They need to be pushed beyond their comfort levels. It can only serve this colt well in the coming weeks, he'll need it to wear the roses in may.

Horse Racing Terms: Tout

2011-04-06T10:34:00.000-07:00

In horse racing terms, the dictionary describes a "Tout", as "...a person who gives information on a horse, especially for a fee...."

We all know these guys. They have brightly colored photo copies and yell a lot. In reality a "Tout" is just about anyone you stand next to at the track. We've all got opinions and lots of people want to share them. Do your homework, don't listen to anyone except yourself and your experience. It'll serve you far better in the long run. Study the past performances. Have a basic knowledge of horse behavior. And have fun.

Without the fun. Handicapping is just gambling.

Kentucky Derby Contender: The Factor

2011-04-05T11:29:00.000-07:00

Bob Baffert's 'The Factor', named after Bill O'Reilly's popular TV show, seems like a colt with a world of potential. His pedigree isn't really distance oriented, but there is some there. I would say his biggest weapon is a long stride with out any wasted motion...and he's shown he can carry that speed two turns. Whether he can withstand the ferocious pace pressure of the Kentucky Derby, I don't know. But War Emblem and Spend A Buck come to mind when I watch this colt run. A dangerous weapon with four legs.