How do we make this work?

How Does Shawn Byrd Want to Make the Money?

2012-08-04T10:22:00.003-04:00

After deliberation, it has been decided that the only way to make money is to do exactly what the "gurus" tell you to do. Right? [insert my sarcasm here] Well, Shawn Byrd doesn't think so. Out of the seemingly infinite ways to earn a dollar (or pound, yen, ruble, etc.), the only way that works is one that allows you to sleep at night.

Let me explain. If you were to work all day at a job/career/paying hobby that allowed you to get the bills paid, but only when doing so meant the remainder of your days was to be obedient to others and failure to do so would cause your financial, and by extension personal, world to crumble, would you want to do it? No. When we must tweak everything in life to the breaking point such that the smallest of deviation would cause a ripple effect that would create an unrecoverable mess, then why do it?

There are far too many things that make money, specifically WHAT WORKS FOR YOU, that there is no need to go to all the trouble to merely survive in this world. One should live and get at least some worthwhile enjoyment for all the effort that goes into paying the bills. End commentary :)

Pretend you are on the beach, porch, or wherever may be a favorite lounging area, and let your mind clear from the day:

How Many Methods to Make Money?

2012-01-17T13:30:00.000-05:00

There are actually numerous ways to trade, and make money trading. The only thing you need to do is stick to your plans. That is easier said than than done. Even if you are in demo mode, your system must be cared for every day.

Check Out Ticketamerica.com for Sports and Game Tickets

2012-01-16T13:16:00.000-05:00

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My Posts Are Going To http://4usbyrds.com/wordpress

2012-01-13T23:59:00.000-05:00

My posts will be mirrored/moving to the Forex and Finance categories and the related page at http://4usbyrds.com/wordpress. Look for it! Follow me there!

Consistency is Often Key.

2012-01-09T00:08:00.000-05:00

There have been many times that I have felt down when things did not go my way. I have also felt the strain from the constant "list of things to do", and how they seemingly never get checked off. One thing that I did notice was that by doing all the things I needed, even if they were uneventful in their results, that I felt much better afterward, and for a longer period of time.

An example: working on many things at once, struggling to keep up, and having some of them fall by the wayside. It's very stressful, and possible counter-productive, due to lost earnings, fixing what became broken while waiting, backtracking, etc. Instead, I slowly, methodically, and purposefully set-out to complete these tasks. Even if I break even on them, I come out ahead. I may be barely ahead, but it is better than it would have been. Even net zero (break-even) is a winner, mainly if it takes the place of negative.

I feel better, am happier, and can direct my talents and energy more to where they may be useful and profitable. I once read that creativity needs freedom, and to remove major stressors helps that freedom to create flourish. Can you imagine what you could achieve if you had that freedom every day?

New Year's Resolutions?

2012-01-03T00:33:00.000-05:00

So...what are you "resolving" to do this year? Why regurgitate the same things. Do this:

Focus, take inventory, focus, plan, focus, meet your goals!

Are your goals to difficult? Maybe, but are they realistic? Scale it back, if necessary. If you use any of the psychological times, i.e.: holidays, special days, or other calendar milestones as reminders to keep yourself in check, things might run a bit smoother. Small adjustments allow for easier work along the way. If you know where you stand, you can see your strengths and weaknesses, your surplus and deficiency. Don't think you know what you have, find it out.

Just remember what Yoda said: "Do, there is no try." Even if it is small, do. It really adds up.

What to do.

2011-12-14T08:15:00.000-05:00

Sometimes we all get in a downturn, a "funk", so to speak. What is the most difficult part of sticking to a plan? Actually, it's sticking to a plan! Consistency and reliability is not easy to come by. It takes discipline. Discipline requires training - both regular practice and psychological fortitude. This is a marathon, but it can be at a relatively easy pace, if you train.

Entering a plan on an initial upswing is a great feeling. It's as if one is on top of the world. But, what to do if that entry is on a downswing? If the trading plan is sound, money management is truly manageable, and the practice of waiting for results is followed, then just wait. Make sure to maintain the proper perspective, and context, for your trading plan.

I like instant gratification while trading just as much as the next person, but if one plan requires I wait 24 hours for results, then I guess I must wait for those 24 hours. There's nothing I can do about that, if that is the plan. Don't like it? Develop another, different strategy. Follow your risk and profit guidelines, and if it works quickly as required, good for you!

Which indicator is the best?

2011-11-30T08:41:00.000-05:00

That question comes up often. It all depends on what is being measured. But, the most important thing to remember is:

Indicators display PAST information.

They only show what has happened. They may look like "trending" or "directional" indicators, or more to the point, fortune-telling devices (as some people believe they are).

Yes, they may INDICATE continued success, but they fail at some point. At what point - that needs to be observed. Now it becomes odds-based. Funny, that is usually how I trade. What are the odds of success of any indicator? That is now the question. Others often refer to win/loss ratios and rate of return ratios (going for more return than the drawdown/temporary loss during the trade). Same difference - odds.

Things to consider: identify what you want to indicate, how often it meets your statistics LIVE, drawdown, adding to/subtracting from positions, SL & TP alterations (some people say never do that, but it depends on the system; I often use dynamic odds, and modify positions - looking for a net return on the group), among others.

Some people like pretty pictures, but how reliable are your observations? If you have an epiphany while looking at your chart, you are probably on to something. Just know that you don't need to reinvent the wheel, as there have been many people who have indicators that may be what you need, or are able to modify. But, sometimes you need something custom. Now there is busy work to be done!

A week with robots.

2011-11-17T16:52:00.000-05:00

So, it's been a week. Where have I been? Back testing and running live demo simulations on trading robots! Well, actually they are semi-automatic tools I have been developing. You see, the computer can solve math problems far faster than any human brain can. So, I take my method, and set the computer to do the math automatically for me.

Is it a robot? Well, in a way it is. These "robots" that you constantly see for purchase are just computer programs that run on the trading platform. I use MetaTrader 4, and they are called Expert Advisors, or EA's for short. They are useful if you have a method, and want to back test (or forward test) it, but don't want to plod through mountains of data by hand. There are many nuances, so be careful how they are programmed, because they will not suffer from human "intuition". You know, the times when you take in additional information before placing a trade. The robots only do what they are told. Which is good, depending on what you need.

Another reason I use automation is for the simple fact that the platform can get the orders placed in a split-second. When a pull-up window for ordering is used, then confirms, sometimes the order hangs because prices move in the direction I don't want. Robots (EA's) are also useful when closing orders, because of the same problem (which, when running tight trades, slippage can go against you).

I wonder if I should divulge some of these methods or tools...

Who wants money?

2011-11-10T09:36:00.000-05:00

How much money do you want to make? A lot? How quickly?

When people see Forex or Futures, they think fortunes WILL be made. I believe they think this because it is all about money. Buying and selling money. How someone goes about making it is an entirely different matter. A bank has a lot of money (well, you don't see it in person like you used to), but that doesn't mean I will get a lot on my savings account.

There are plenty of people, myself included, who have made large amounts of money in a short period of time. It is a good feeling when, after a basic analysis and then placing (3) phone calls for a grand total of 15 minutes, profit shows up to the tune of about 1000 bucks! Know what? It's lost just as easily, faster even.

As a trader, you MUST determine your emotional capacity for risk (time and money), as well as your account's ability to absorb losses. You want to come out swinging, but remember that you will miss at times. So, you want to be able to come out swinging AGAIN and AGAIN.

2% is my magic number. It may seem counter-intuitive to reverse the leverage, but staying power does have it's benefits. This is actually prevalent among the traders that I view as successful. It may seem like almost nothing at all, but if you make a small amount on each trade, and are able to duplicate that 2, 3, 5, 10, or 20 times per day, guess what? You are well on your way. Do you realize that if you have a micro account with, say a $100 balance, and you pull 2 cents per hour (2 pips at 1 cent, minimum trade size), that comes to 48 cents per day. So what? But look: There are roughly 250 trading days per year. 0.48 x 250 = $120. That's over 100% ROI per year! Not too bad. And it's "only pennies".

Overtrade, and you most likely will blow out your account (many of us have done that). Undertrade, and I don't know. Undertrade using many methods, and the large numbers you want could show themselves before you know it...

What I'm not planning on doing.

2011-11-05T19:06:00.000-04:00

Things that will not happen on this blog would be me commenting on world affairs or policies, and also no trading predictions or "picks". I am strictly interested in the technical side of things. I may give examples or basic designs based upon recent events, but what will happen will happen in the market. Strange philosophy, I know.

If I am working off charts, I don't really care what happens next. The only reason I might pay extra attention to the markets/my current market plan, would if there are upcoming news events and I have close stops that may get spiked, or something like that. If I'm playing the odds, I will usually build that in, anyway.

Not that anybody is asking too much about this right now, but I just wanted to let you know.

A sample chart.

2011-11-03T09:49:00.000-04:00

Here is a sample chart. Colors are often used to help differentiate between data types. The green bars, or Candlesticks, are up. This means the starting price, or Open, is lower than the ending price, or Close. The red bars are the opposite. Black is often used for Up bars, white for Down bars. I use a black background, so contrasting colors work better for me. The bars' style can be change to the typical "stock market" look, or to any number of graphics and colors. I prefer candlesticks.

They curvy lines are Moving Averages, or MA for short. The shorter the average price, or Period, they track, the closer they hug the bars. Some people determine trends by noticing if the bars are above or below the MA lines, and for how long they maintain their relative position. These particular lines are drawn based upon the closing prices, using a simple averaging of the price, or Simple Moving Average (SMA). You can change the curvature based upon closing, opening, mid-point pricing, as well as how the price is averaged (weighted, HLC/2, etc.). The lines can be shifted in time forwards or backwards, too. It depends on what you want to see and do. More on that later.

Without even knowing the what market this is, or the price of the underlying market, can't you tell that it: 1) went lower in the first half of the chart, and 2) started going up? In reality, this is the Euro/US dollar pair in Forex. It did continue going up later during the day. The dashed white line indicates a new day. In this case, it is 00:00 GMT, or 4 hours ahead of New York, USA. I'm not showing you how to predict market behavior, just that sometimes intuition is all it really takes to work the market. That, and risk management.

Good start, so far?

Let's talk Forex

2011-11-02T09:15:00.000-04:00

So, Forex (or FX for short) is really what interests me. Forex, Futures, Stocks, and anything else that can be charted has always fascinated me, and I believe, others. Forex is basically buying one currency and simultaneously selling another. You can look at it as currency conversion, but you don't hold it in your pocket. If you are taking a trip, you can go to the bank, buy another country's currency, then return home and sell it back to the bank. Same idea, just on a larger scale.

Forex charts are every bit the same as charts in other markets. Visually, charts can be pretty pictures, and pictures lend themselves to unconscious scrutiny. Think about it: anytime you or I look at something, aren't we trying to figure out a) why we like it, or b) what is wrong with it? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. People like me, who are technically-oriented, want to pick apart the chart. We want to determine a reason for the patterns (or non-patterns) that are produced. Sometimes, charting randomness is a fun exercise in itself!

If you strip away the names, prices, times, and all other identifying information, every chart looks like every other chart. Anything that can be charted is like that. Now, if you tag a market to that chart, some people will say "it can't be done" or "it's too risky". What does that mean to you, if it is out of context? Did they lose money trading? Are they the "expert" in the field? Is it their company, and they have the inside information? Did they risk it all, or only a fraction of their purse?

I'm here to make money. That's the reason I trade. Is it fun? Yes! But not in the style of gambling. That type of fun gets old quickly. I like to see results, and the results I like produce some sort of cash flow. Otherwise, I would just sit back and teach. I like to be "in the game", though.

Forex is not any riskier than any other type of investment. Every time you make ANY decision (should I buy this car?, when to go to the grocery store?, do these clothes make my butt look big?), are you willing to bet all your chips on the predicted outcome? Flip a coin and make that the basis for your living. There are only TWO outcomes. Try to make a living betting, or in trading terms, speculating, in terms of heads or tails. That's 50/50, right? Sounds easy, but there must be a plan. Risk management is very important in any plan that involves decision making. We'll talk about that later.

I like Forex mainly because I can start trading on "paper", which is to say using a virtual, demo account. No financial risk, but I can get familiar with the platform, charts, tools, and everything else that I may need to use. Also, there are micro accounts. These are smaller than full-size trading accounts, so they are easier for entry-level, or novices to get introduced to the Forex market. It is also a way to try out trading systems and methods. I have traded using $5 as my margin. Trading live, using real money, makes a huge psychological difference. Even if it is for pennies (literally), emotions weigh heavily in the decision process. We'll talk later about emotions. That is probably the biggest stumbling block for most traders.

So, should I dive right in and talk about analysis and charts, or wade in with some more basics? We'll pick up later with some of both, but using simple charts. Learning by application, that's what we'll do next.

Methods of trading and what they mean (to me).

2011-11-01T00:28:00.000-04:00

Welcome. I am here to discuss trading methodologies, their applications to my trading, and what I see and experience in my trading life. Whether it is about new ideas or the things that cross my path, I will try to put down what I think and how I go about analyzing it.

Let me say that I am more of a technical trader than a fundamental one. Now, there are times where one cannot ignore the fundamentals, but those eventually get built into the charts, and then they can be traded on a technical basis. I am better with numbers and such, so although pretty pictures look nice, it really boils down to "the odds".

The pictures that charts make are extremely useful, because it is easy to notice patterns at a glance. The human brain is far more intuitive than any computer, especially when it comes to making sense of the abstract. Once patterns show themselves, then I am able to analyze the heck out of them. Have you noticed the waves that often develop? How about the fluctuations that occur during the day? I see sine waves all the time. If it looks like a regular pattern, chances are it probably is (within reason). That's all you need for the basis of a method: anything you notice that has even a remote repetition.

Whether you trade using Stoch, RSI, Volumes, MA's, etc., it all ends up being technical. Track how many times or not you buy or sell based upon any given indicator. What is your record overall? Those are the odds, my friends.

I hope what I do becomes as helpful to you as it has been in helping to get me here.