tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89551181497110214712024-11-01T03:40:55.594-07:00How Gold Is MinedChris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.comBlogger1689125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-24321105381556101232013-10-30T07:25:00.000-07:002013-10-30T07:25:01.118-07:00The British Pound Is Plunging The British pound just tanked. <P>This is coming in the wake of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announcement.</P><P>While the MPC is keeping interest rates and its assest purchase plan unchanged -- as expected -- the language appears to signal that the BoE could keep monetary policy loose for longer.</P><P>From the statement:</P><P>Since the May Inflation Report, market interest rates have risen sharply internationally and asset prices have been volatile.  In the United Kingdom, there have been further signs that a recovery is in train, although it remains weak by historical standards and a degree of slack is expected to persist for some time.  Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 2.7% in May and is set to rise further in the near term.  Further out, inflation should fall back towards the 2% target as external price pressures fade and a revival in productivity growth curbs domestic cost pressures.</P><P>At its meeting today, the Committee noted that the incoming data over the past couple of months had been broadly consistent with the central outlook for output growth and inflation contained in the May Report.  The significant upward movement in market interest rates would, however, weigh on that outlook; in the Committee’s view, the implied rise in the expected future path of Bank Rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy.</P><P>Here's a look at the British pound, which is down 1.2% against the U.S. dollar:</P><BR><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/3lXNinKe-bU/british-pound-plunges-after-boe-statement-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-69459357138519386762013-10-30T03:58:00.000-07:002013-10-30T03:58:00.351-07:00The George Clooney Of Central Bankers Just Started An Incredibly Difficult Job: Saving The UK Economy After a double-dip recession and a modest recovery in the second quarter, the UK economy is in need of some fresh ideas. Enter Mark Carney. <P>The former Bank of Canada governor, took the reins from Mervyn King on July 1.</P><P>Carney is charming, with many likening him to George Clooney and Cary Grant. And celebrated — he is often called the rock star central banker.</P><P>And then there is his erudite background. He has a bachelor's degree in economics from Harvard, an MPhil in economics from Oxford, and a PHD in economics from Nuffield College, Oxford. He then spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs before transitioning to the public sector.</P><P>As governor of the Bank of Canada he was considered to have the Midas touch. He was credited with steering  Canada away from the worst of the financial crisis and helping put it back on the path to recovery much faster than other developed economies.</P><P>So, it's understandable that he managed to negotiate a £874,000 package to move to London, according to The Guardian, including a monthly £10,000 housing allowance. He will also only be serving a five-year term, instead of the usual eight.</P><P><STRONG>Forward guidance:  First order of the day</STRONG></P><P>The pressure is on for Carney, as an outsider, to bring with him a change in "the culture of an institution that has been dominated by a single personality for the past 20 years," according to UBS' Amit Kara.</P><P>He is expected to introduce forward guidance, similar to the Fed i.e. signal monetary policy stance ahead of time. But Kara argues that forward guidance is likely to be less effective in the UK because of "the unpredictability of the UK economy." The Bank of England on the other hand has managed to get its forecasts wrong. From Kara:</P><P>"Mr Carney will most likely announce a framework for guidance in August along with publication of the Inflation Report. The framework will be necessarily cautious and, as such, include a heavy dose of conditionality to satisfy other MPC members that are similarly skeptical about the benefits of forward guidance.</P><P>"We have also contended that Mr Carney will bring about a welcome change in the culture of the institution. In this context, though, it is important to remind ourselves that the BoE has been one of the most aggressive and innovative central banks in recent years, and that is one aspect (along with the traditional pink coats of the doormen) that the new governor will be keen to preserve."</P><P>But others argue that forward guidance could help ease some of the volatility and spill over from rising rates in the U.S.</P><P><STRONG>How different will Carney be from his predecessor, Mervyn King?</STRONG></P><P>First, in his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) in February, Carney said central banks should consider nominal gross domestic product (NGDP) targeting if QE measures aren't enough, since this would allow for a more aggressive response. Carney did however say that inflation targeting was preferred over  NGDP targeting.</P><P>In this regard he is quite like King, because he believes there is "considerable flexibility in the current inflation targeting framework and a very high bar for switching from it," according to a February note by Jamie Dannhauser at Lombard Street Research.</P><P>Second, both Carney and King justify extending the time frame for inflation to be brought back to target, though Carney is more likely to have a time frame.</P><P>Third, like King, Carney is expected to vote for more gilt purchases. Remember King was looking for an additional £25 billion in gilt purchases but had six members of the MPC vote against it. Dannhauser thinks the MPC under Carney will vote for more gilt purchases in 2013-2014, but that they would not take center stage in the committee's tool box.</P><P>Fourth, unlike King, Carney is in favor "of using monetary policy to ‘lean against the wind’ of asset bubbles," wrote Dannhauser. He thinks it is important to use interest rates to ensure financial stability. </P><P>"In all likelihood, the differences between Bank of England policy under Carney and that under Mervyn King will be more apparent than real...</P><P>"Carney himself questions the magnitude of QE’s benefit on the real economy, and while acknowledging that the marginal benefit is likely to be positive, notes that there are potential costs from long- lasting monetary stimulus. Like Mervyn King, Mark Carney does not appear persuaded by some of the more radical monetary ideas that could be considered, e.g. money-financed fiscal policy, or notably a change of fiscal course. Both are also persuaded of the need for swift and radical reform of the banking system, and at the same time complacent about the short-term damage to output growth and the increasing pro-cyclicality of bank regulation.</P><P>"All in all, we do not believe that much of substance is going to change. Monetary policy will continue along the same path, i.e. aggressive stimulus and an extended time frame over which inflation is brought back to target."</P><P>Remember, Carney was hand-picked by Mervyn King. So, in the near term, the biggest difference we see might just be the changes he brings to culture and hierarchy at the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.</P><P><STRONG>Not everyone's a fan</STRONG></P><P>Some have raised questions about his time at Goldman Sachs and his decision to appoint another investment banker, Banco Santander's Charlotte Hogg, to be the BoE's first chief operating officer.</P><P>"That resumeé rundown isn't meant to impute personal venality to any of these officials; it's to point out the corruption of a system governed by unelected ex-bankers colluding in unprecedented austerity for the poor, while shoveling hundreds of billions at bankers ," wrote Aditya Chakraborty in The Guardian. </P>Societe Generale's Albert Edwards said Carney's stance on NGDP targeting was cause for concern because it showed the willingness of "policymakers to become more and more interventionist in their monetary experiments." <P>He even compared Carney to Alan Greenspan:</P><P>"In 2005 I described Alan Greenspan as an economic war criminal when most others had decided he was “the greatest central banker who ever lived”, Hence I note with alarm that some commentators are so excited about the appointment of Mark Carney to the Bank of England Governorship that now he Carney, is now being dubbed “the world’s greatest central banker”. Oh dear! From everything I have read so far I fear that in the fullness of time he will have more similarities with Alan Greenspan than just this unwanted accolade and his legacy will be equally destructive."</P><P>Of course the course isn't easy for Carney at the Bank of England. Dissent from the other members of the monetary policy committee could dampen his agenda, as could the constraints of fiscal policy.</P><P>Carney will preside over his first meeting as the governor of the Bank of England this week. He isn't expected to announce additional gilt purchases at his first meeting.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/LLcUMtj-4bc/mark-carney-profile-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-64197562945164941332013-10-29T23:34:00.000-07:002013-10-29T23:34:00.268-07:00The Commodities Supercycle Is Over — Here&#39;s What&#39;s Next <IMG border=0 alt="molten hot silver gold" src="/molten-hot-silver-gold.jpg" width=480> REUTERS/Peter Andrews</P>Workers pour molten silver into moulds at the KGHM copper and precious metals smelter processing plant in Glogow May 10, 2013.</P><IMG alt="" src="/.png"> $('.icon-tooltip').tooltip();Sluggish global growth and a recent economic slowdown in resource-hungry China have hammered commodities markets this year, sending the price of everything from iron ore to copper tumbling. With those sharp reversals—as well as the Fed’s comments about tapering the size of the United States’ monetary stimulus—fresh in their minds, the 300 clients who convened last week at Credit Suisse’s New York headquarters for the bank’s third annual Commodities Day had plenty to talk about. <P>With few exceptions, the prices of commodities such as oil products, precious metals and industrial metals have been steadily rising over the past decade in what analysts have termed a “commodities supercycle.” That era is over, Credit Suisse experts say, and they expect prices to remain under pressure at least through the end of the year. What’s more, the prices of individual commodities will no longer rise and fall together as they have for the last five years, Credit Suisse’s commodities team explained in a June 25 research note (“Commodities Forecast Update: The Return of Fundamentals”). As a result, investors and traders are going to have to focus on the specific supply and demand dynamics for individual commodities.</P><P>Copper and iron ore prices, for example, are expected to decline because supplies of both metals are becoming more plentiful at the same time that demand is declining. Copper is used in wiring and electrical equipment, and is thus sensitive to both building activity and demand for electronics. And iron ore is an indicator of industrial activity of all kinds. Prices of both should soften as China’s building and manufacturing boom cools off. Demand for palladium, on the other hand, should stay strong thanks to the steadily growing Chinese car market, at the same time that labor unrest in South Africa looks likely to slow growth in supply. That points to higher prices.</P><P><STRONG>The Attendees</STRONG></P><P>Attendees at Commodities Day represented a wide variety of investors. Close to one-third were from hedge funds, while roughly one-fourth were institutional investors.</P><P><STRONG>The Year Ahead</STRONG></P><P>Out of four commodity sectors – energy, precious metals, industrial metals and agriculture – energy and agriculture nearly tied (37 percent and 36 percent, respectively) as investors’ pick for the most promising bet over the next year.</P><P>Most investors – 41 percent – think commodity prices will remain at their current levels a year from now. Perhaps more telling is the fact that nearly one in four respondents (23 percent) said they had absolutely no idea where commodity prices were going.</P><P>One thing is clear, though. Investors don’t expect the market to stabilize. More than half (53 percent) of those surveyed believed volatility would be higher over the coming year than it was in the previous year. About a third of investors thought volatility would stay the same, but only 15 percent thought it would decline.</P><P><STRONG>Oil Markets</STRONG></P><P>Brent crude oil prices have fallen from a high of $118.90 in February to just over $100 in early July. Most investors think that decline will continue.</P><P>Credit Suisse recently cut its Brent crude oil forecast for the next six months to $108 from $112, due to concerns about how much consumption can rise given a still-fragile U.S. recovery as well as the risk of a slowdown in emerging markets. But in the medium term, Credit Suisse’s oil analysts are optimistic about prices, noting that global supply is likely to stay tight this year as international sanctions are successfully keeping Iranian crude off European and other key markets. Ongoing conflicts in large OPEC countries such as Iraq, Nigeria and Libya, have also tightened production. Credit Suisse expects Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, would have to boost production by 1.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter to keep prices from falling.</P><P>In the long term, analysts say, developed markets will use less</EM> oil, not more, and emerging markets could see a similar decline within a decade. At the same time, a shale drilling boom in the U.S. will bring more supply of shale oil online. “The clear implication is that in a slower-growth world, still fraught with uncertainty, plentiful supplies eventually bring down oil prices,” analysts said in the “Return to Fundamentals” research note. </P><P><STRONG>Metals</STRONG></P><P>Of the four base metals used for industrial and commercial purposes (copper, aluminum, zinc and lead), 35 percent of investors predicted that copper—which has shed 34 percent of its value since a 2011 peak—would be the best-performing base metal over the next year. But Credit Suisse’s commodities team said copper prices might fall further still. “Copper stands out as being the most overvalued of the LME metals, in our view,” analysts said the “Return to Fundamentals” research note. “Inevitably, we think prices must come under further downward pressure soon.”</P><P>Nearly half of attendees think the recent rout in gold prices isn’t quite over, and think the metal will be trading between $1,000 and $1,200 an ounce in a year. Gold has not dipped below $1,200 an ounce since 2010, but is currently trading around $1,246, down from a high of nearly $1,792 in October.</P><P>But if investors were pessimistic about gold, they were hot for palladium. More than half of the survey respondents—53 percent—thought palladium would outperform gold, silver and platinum in the coming year. Credit Suisse analysts are maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on palladium and believe that supply will fall short of demand through 2016, keeping prices high. But they also noted that ETF holdings, investors and funds account for 50 percent of annual palladium demand, making the precious metal vulnerable to a selloff if investor fears about a global macroeconomic slowdown return.</P>The Financialist is a digital magazine presented by Credit Suisse that looks at the trends and ideas that drive markets, businesses and economies.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/zAB8lmmOc1o/commodities-supercycle-is-over-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-11004134543605681202013-10-29T19:03:00.000-07:002013-10-29T19:03:01.127-07:00The Supreme Court&#39;s Gay Marriage Ruling Is Bad News For Some Gay-Friendly Financial Advisors <IMG border=0 alt="Gay Pride Parade, Edith Windsor, DOMA" src="/gay-pride-parade-edith-windsor-doma.jpg" width=480> Robert Libetti/Business Insider</P><STRONG>FA Insights is a daily newsletter from Business Insider that delivers the top news and commentary for financial advisors. For more visit Business Insider's new Wealth Advisor vertical. <BR></STRONG></EM><P><STRONG class=" PIN_1372868423849_hazClick">What The DOMA Ruling Means For Financial Advisors (Wall Street Journal)</STRONG></P><P>Financial advisors are wondering what the Supreme Court's historic decision overturning the Defense of Marriage Act will do to business. For some firms that offered niche estate planning for same-sex couples, the decision — which effectively extends to gay couples the same federal tax breaks that heterosexual couples enjoy — might actually harm short-term business. Still, plenty of firms could get new clients now that federal marriage rules will encompass more Americans. </P><P>Advisors could also benefit from some of ambiguity surrounding the ruling, since it still isn't clear if same-sex partners will be recognized by states that don't acknowledge gay marriage, if the couple married in another state that does recognize it. <BR></P><P><STRONG>Now Might Be A Good Time To Buy Junk Bonds (BlackRock)</STRONG></P><P>With interest rates surging and bonds undergoing a massive sell-off in recent weeks, now might be just the right time to get in on junk bonds once again. "High yield has been a popular trade for several years given the economic recovery and low default rate," write the analysts at BlackRock. "With the recent shift in interest rates and the economy still growing, the sector is attractive. Can investors continue to reap returns? We believe so."</P><STRONG><BR>Here Are 3 Reasons Why You Should Still Own Bonds (Vanguard)</STRONG> <P><STRONG></STRONG>Keep holding onto Treasuries, says Vanguard's Joe Davis. Here's why:</P><P>1.It has taken time for interest rates to rise. So just because they are low it doesn't mean that they will jump over the next two days. 2. "Secondly is that with low interest rates, that did imply muted return for bond portfolios over the next several years, and that there was more risk of a one-year or one-month loss going forward than there had been over the past 30 or 40 years just because the low-income cushions in those portfolios, and that has played out at least in the past day or two." 3. "Bonds are just inherently, as a broad asset class, less volatile than equities, and that played out yesterday." <BR></P><P><STRONG>FINRA Increased Enforcement in 2012 (Financial Planning)</STRONG></P><P>2012 was a banner year for FINRA, which brought a grand total of 1,541 disciplinary actions. The self-regulator took home almost $70 million in fines, and ordered $34 million in restitution to investors. According to its annual report, the regulator expelled 30 firms, 294 individuals, and suspended another 549.</P><P><STRONG>Medicare Related Mistakes Can Really Hurt Retirees (FA Mag)</STRONG></P><P>Financial advisors should be well versed on Medicare and related insurance plans — such as Medicare Advantage — before advising clients, according to Brian Hanby who heads a Utah-based insurance agency. "A lot of people do not realize how much health care can cost even with Medicare. It can be a nightmare if you have serious health problems,” Hanby told FA Mag.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/42lKgBV4Om8/financial-advisor-insights-july-3-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-41094331019111722732013-10-29T14:40:00.000-07:002013-10-29T14:40:01.339-07:00EL-ERIAN: Anyone Following Egypt Needs To Keep An Eye On One Useful Measure, And It&#39;s Not The Stock Market El-Erian On Egyptian Credit Default Swaps - Business Insider<body class="responsive ">FeaturedTrendingRecent<img src="/BusinessInsider.jpg" alt="Business Insider"> Login Remember me I forgot username or password Login with Twitter Login with Facebook Login with LinkedIn Login with Google Register EventsBI Intelligence<button type="submit" 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Markets More: Mohamed El-Erian Egypt EL-ERIAN: Anyone Following Egypt Needs To Keep An Eye On One Useful Measure, And It's Not The Stock Market Mohamed El-Erian, Contributor Jul. 3, 2013, 1:29 PM 3,917 <button class="btn button-email" onclick="gaPageTrack('Share','Click','Email');"> Email</button><button class="btn sharing-button"> MoreShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /></button>Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");EmailShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /> <p><img src="/mohamed-el-erian-10.jpg" border="0" alt="Mohamed El-Erian" width="480" />REUTERS/Fred Prouser</p>Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, takes part in a panel discussion titled "Global Markets in Uncertain Times" at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California April 29, 2013. </p> $('.icon-tooltip').tooltip(); Mohamed El-Erian<img src="/mohamed-el-erian.jpg" alt="" border="0" />Mohamed El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO.</p>Recent PostsEL-ERIAN: The Next Few Days Will Be Critical For The Global...EL-ERIAN: The Fed Better Be Right About The EconomyEL-ERIAN: The Market 'Sucking Sounds' Are Getting Louder As Four...With all the focus on Egypt today, people are scrambling to find a simple market-based measure that speaks to both the extent of the economic disruptions and the potential financial spillover effects on other countries. <br />The most commonly-viewed Egyptian chart – stock market prices – is not the right one. There is another one; and while better (and, maybe, even the best in relative terms), it is far from comprehensive.</p><p>This better data series measures the spread on the 5-year CDS (credit default swap). It is a good – not perfect – market indicator of sovereign risk; and it dominates the information content provided by the much more popular stock market index.</p><p>The higher the spread (and it just traded at around 1,000 basis points), the harder it is to encourage investment in new plant and equipment; the more difficult and expensive it is to secure trade financing (including for critical imports of food stuffs and other basic needs); and the lower the job and income opportunities for average Egyptians. And all this speaks to the bigger issue: A struggling economy is both a source and a consequence of Egypt’s current political tensions.</p><p>As insightful as this data series is, it does not capture however the potential spillover effects. Indeed, even the analytics of this particular contagion question is quite complex.</p><p>Measured by traditional economic and financial variables, Egypt’s regional and global network effects are quite limited. This is true in terms of the usual measures, including trade links, global demand and supply influences and cross-border financial interactions.</p><p>But this does not mean that Egypt has no systemic effects. It remains the largest and most influential country in the Arab region. It is a significant geo-political actor in an important part of the world. And the demonstration effects could extend quite far and wide.</p><p>The bad news is that there is no single simple measure that comes anywhere near to capturing all this. The good news is that the CDS spread provides useful insights into one of the underlying contributing factors.</p> <button class="btn share" data-fade-replace="bottom-share-links"> Share</button><button class="btn button-email" onclick="gaPageTrack('Share','Click','Email');"> Email</button><button class="btn sharing-button"> MoreShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /></button>To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.600px wide (preview)<iframe src="http://www.businessinsider.com/embed?id=51d429336bb3f7560300001e&width=600&height=430" width="600" height="430" border="0" frameborder="0"></iframe>400px wide (preview)<iframe src="http://www.businessinsider.com/embed?id=51d429336bb3f7560300001e&width=400&height=430" width="400" height="430" border="0" frameborder="0"></iframe> 300px wide (preview) <iframe 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Markets More: Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke Monetary Policy MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Ben Bernanke Is Giving A Speech On July 10 On The Fed's Policy Record Alister Bull, Reuters Jul. 3, 2013, 4:52 PM 714 5 <button class="btn button-email" onclick="gaPageTrack('Share','Click','Email');"> Email</button><button class="btn sharing-button"> MoreShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /></button>Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");EmailShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /> <p><img src="/ben-bernanke-55.jpg" border="0" alt="Ben Bernanke" width="480" />REUTERS/Jason Reed</p>U.S.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addresses a news conference following the Fed's two-day policy meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, June 19, 2013. </p> <img src="/.png" alt="" /> Draghi says rates will remain low for extended period ECB holds rates as euro crisis threatens to return Exclusive: BlueCrest's BlueTrend hedge fund slumps 16.9 percent Austrian jobs on line as retailer Dayli fails Emerging markets mania was a costly mistake: Goldman executive $('.icon-tooltip').tooltip(); See Also <img class="media-object" src="/word-for-word-heres-exactly-what-bernanke-said-thats-driving-the-global-markets-crazy.jpg"> WORD FOR WORD: Here's Exactly What Bernanke Said That's Driving The Global Markets Crazy<img class="media-object" src="/art-cashin-i-was-out-with-my-drinking-buddies-last-night-and-we-were-all-in-a-frenzy-about-this-chart.jpg"> ART CASHIN: I Was Out With My Drinking Buddies Last Night, And We Were All In A Frenzy About This Chart<img class="media-object" src="/jpmorgan-put-together-the-ultimate-guide-to-the-market-right-now.jpg"> JPMorgan Put Together The Ultimate Guide To The Market Right Now WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would make a speech in Cambridge, Massachusetts, next week on the central bank's 100-year history, its policy record, lessoned learned and prospects for the future.</p><p>The announcement of his appearance on July 10 at 4:10 p.m. EDT (2010 GMT), at a conference hosted by the National Bureau of Economic Research, was released in a regular update of the Fed's schedule for upcoming official events.</p><p>Financial markets are on red alert for any hints on the direction of monetary policy after the chairman said on June 19 that officials expect to begin scaling back monthly bond purchases later this year from a current $85 billion pace, provided the economy develops as they expect.</p><p>That sent stock markets plunging and put sharp upward pressure on bond yields, which was stemmed only after other Fed officials pushed back hard in speeches last week, saying investors were over-reacting to Bernanke's remarks.</p><p>The Fed said Bernanke would answer questions from the audience after delivering his speech next Wednesday, which is taking place several hours after publication of the minutes of last month's policy-setting meeting.</p><p>(Reporting by Alister Bull; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)</p><p>Copyright (2013) Thomson Reuters. 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Yes No #America<img src="/bacon-flag-usa.jpg" border="0" alt="bacon flag usa" width="340" /></p>How To Make An American Flag Out Of BaconSummer Can Be Crazy Fun In The CityHow Do You Stack Up To These Celebrity Golfers?TrendingThe Future Of Mobile<img src="/kim-kardashian-mario-lopez-phone.png" border="0" alt="Kim Kardashian Mario Lopez phone" width="340" /></p>Life After Instagram: Opportunities In The Mobile Photo-Sharing EcosystemWhy Local-Mobile Marketing Is ExplodingInside The Rise Of Responsive Design And Its Pros And Cons As A Mobile StrategyHow Location-Based Services Are Transforming The Mobile IndustryAdvertisementIn partnership with <img src="/BetterJobsLogo.gif" alt="BetterJobs">Find A JobTech JobsMedia JobsFinance JobsC-Level JobsDesign JobsSales JobsSee All JobsThanks to our partners<img class="pull-left" src="/catchpoint7.png" alt="Catchpoint - Web Performance Monitoring" /><img class="pull-left" src="/ooyala7.png" alt="Ooyala" /> * Copyright © 2013 Business Insider, Inc. All rights reserved. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Disclaimer Commerce Policy Powered by MongoDB Stock quotes by YCharts Ad Serving by 24/7 Open AdStream Made in NYC </body><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/HsEysk-uRvw/bernanke-speech-fed-policy-record-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-39693590904903905542013-10-29T08:19:00.000-07:002013-10-29T08:19:00.542-07:00It&#39;s Now Clear A Single Energy Company Will Dictate The Fortunes For Much Of Ohio <IMG border=0 alt="chesapeake energy" src="/chesapeake-energy-2.jpg" width=480> REUTERS/Steve Sisney</P>We recently met with a delegation from Ohio to discuss how Buckeye staters have benefitted from oil and gas production from the Utica shale formation, on which they sit.  <P>Of course, the state has long suffered from the decline of its industrial manufacturing base.   </P><P>But the delegation cited a study from research group IHS suggesting the Utica could generate 143,000 and generate $18 billion for the economy. </P><P>And one company is overwhelmingly responsible for developing those resources: Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy.</P><P>According to a new report from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, the company was responsible for 2/3rds of documented shale wells drilled in 2012 — 53 of 85.</P><P>Compare this with Pennsylvania, where dozens of different companies have drilled the more than 2,300 wells in the Marcellus Shale.</P><P>Here's another view, showing all Utica permits through December, via Fractracker:</P><P>Until recently, relying on this particular company might have spelled trouble — longtime CEO Aubrey McClendon was forced to step down after a series of reports about conflict of interest — analysts now say its outlook has stabilized.</P><P>And the company's stake in the state is set to grow even further, according to the Akron Beacon:</P><P>Chesapeake had said earlier that it expects to quadruple its Ohio production by the end of 2013 with the completion of pipelines and processing plants that will allow more wells to be hooked up plus new wells drilled in 2013.</P><P>The company was basically first into the area, and so its vaunted "land machine" was able to snap lots of potential production areas.</P><P>Ohio's unemployment rate is now lower than the rest of the country's:</P><IMG border=0 alt="ohio versus national unemployment" src="/fredgraph201-12.png"> FRED</P><P>It's now clear that trend will to a significant degree depend on Chesapeake's fortunes.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/_-z48YHYrxM/chesapeake-and-the-future-of-ohio-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-92037268891121945092013-10-29T04:09:00.000-07:002013-10-29T04:09:00.553-07:00YARDENI: Here&#39;s Why Stock Prices Usually Rally On The First Of The Month <IMG alt="" src="/.png"> $('.icon-tooltip').tooltip();Stock prices have had a tendency to rise during the first trading day of every month. The S&P 500 has been up 0.3% on average during the 52 such days since the start of the current bull market on March 9, 2009. It was up 0.5% yesterday. The S&P 500 has been up 65% of those days with an average gain of 1.1%. The average decline during down days was 1.3%. <P>Before we are tempted to quit our daily jobs to play the odds of the one-day-a-month trade, we should try to explain the first-day-of-the-month pattern. The most obvious explanation is that the US manufacturing PMI is always released on that day. Bull markets tend to coincide with economic expansions, during which the M-PMI tends to remain above 50. In addition, surprises are more likely to be to the upside than to the downside when the economy is expanding than when it is contracting.</P><P>Why does the market seem to give so much weight to the M-PMI? It tends to be a good leading indicator for the y/y growth in S&P 500 revenues. M-PMI readings above 50 tend to be associated with positive earnings growth. However, the recent batch of readings suggests a continuation of low-single-digit revenues growth, which was only 1.3% during Q1-2013.</P><P>Of course, S&P 500 revenues are driven by global growth. So it was good to see improvements in European M-PMIs during June. The UK M-PMI increased to 52.5 in June from 51.5 in May. Spain’s index actually rose to 50.0, after spending the past 25 months mostly well below that level. Germany and France were both below 50, but getting closer.</P><P>I calculate a Super M-PMI using an equally weighted average of the indexes of the US, the UK, the euro zone, Japan, and China. It increased to 50.9 in June, the second consecutive reading above 50 and the highest since March 2012.</P><P>Today's Morning Briefing: Independence Day. (1) Great holiday in the US. (2) “Groundhog Day” in the rest of the world. (3) Greece again. (4) Another European Grand Plan. (5) Chinese property prices defy Chinese government. (6) Egyptians want a do-over. (7) QE could be Fed’s Groundhog Day. (8) US economy showing self-sustaining growth. (9) Will the Affordable Care Act be unaffordable? (10) The NFL takes a pass. (11) In America we trust. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Health Care. (More for subscribers.)</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/rsG8Ulplo_c/yardeni-on-pmi-and-stocks-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-54082949567704064882013-10-28T23:22:00.000-07:002013-10-28T23:22:00.146-07:00BLACKROCK: Now Might Be A Good Time To Buy Junk Bonds <P>With the Federal Reserve on a multi-year mission to keep interest rates as low as possible, investors seeking yield moved out on the risk spectrum from investment grade bonds to things like high-yield (or junk) bonds.</P><P>This shift made junk bonds pricier, forcing the risk-reward ratio to become unattractive.</P><P>However, with interest rates surging and bonds all over the world selling off in recent weeks, the opportunity to buy junk bonds might be now.</P><P>"High yield has been a popular trade for several years given the economic recovery and low default rate," write the analysts at BlackRock. "With the recent shift in interest rates and the economy still growing, the sector is attractive. Can investors continue to reap returns? We believe so."</P><P>Here's their chart:</P><P>Bond god Jeffrey Gundlach made a similar argument last week.</P><P>"The liquidation cycle appears to have run its course," said Gundlach pointing to junk bonds among other things.</P><P>Here's a slide from Gundlach's presentation showing how junk bond market may have inflected from its bottom.</P><IMG border=0 alt="Jeffrey Gundlach's Presentation" src="/screen20shot202013-06-2720at205141420pm.png" width=800> DoubleLine Funds</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/UxMXkB6mCqk/blackrock-high-yield-bonds-priced-right-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-12952365310974409982013-10-28T19:08:00.000-07:002013-10-28T19:08:00.427-07:00The Revenue-Weighted S&amp;P 500 Is Smoking The Regular S&amp;P 500 Notwithstanding the rockiness of the last six weeks, U.S. stock markets have had a very good first half in 2013. Drilling into the market is revealing. <P>The S&P 500 Index, represented by the ETF (exchange-traded fund) whose symbol is SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), had a total return of 13.74% for the first six months of the year. The performance is one of the best first halves in recent times. If one examines the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index for the same period, the result is 13.81% when calculated using the ETF whose symbol is MDY (SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 ETF).</P><P>Most notable is the outperformance of small-cap stocks. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is captured by the ETF whose symbol is IJR (iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF). That security had a total return of 16.29% for the first half of the year. Thus, approximately 2.5 additional points of return were obtained by representative diversification into small caps versus mid caps and large caps.</P><P>Note we are still within the S&P 1500 Index. The stocks that make up this index pass the screening and selection committee of Standard & Poor's. We will keep this commentary focused on the S&P 1500. That said, there is ample evidence in other sections of the nearly 6000 tradable stocks that dramatic underperformance or outperformance occurred.</P><P>One of the pronounced features of this year's first half is the persistent outperformance of revenue-weighted indices over capitalization-weighted indices. One can reach into the same stock market index basket using RevenueShares ETFs rather than the standard capitalization-weighted references from S&P. For example, RevenueShare Small Cap ETF (RWJ) had a performance for the first half of the year of 16.84% versus IJR at 16.29%. In other words, if you selected a revenue-weighted ETF structure versus a capitalization-weighted ETF structure in the small-cap arena, you would have added another 60 basis points to your returns for the first half of 2013.</P><P>This difference gets more dramatic when you look at the Mid Cap 400 Index. RevenueShares Mid Cap (RWK) delivered a 19.42% total return versus the capitalization-weighted MDY return of 13.81%. A total return 5.61% higher was a dramatic gain to be realized by using RevenueShares rather than capitalization weighting in the mid-cap sector. Mid caps by capitalization weight were essentially the same as large caps. The revenue-weighted ETF dramatically outperformed the cap-weighted one.</P><P>What about RevenueShares Large Cap? Here too, revenue weighting added excess return to an investor's portfolio. Let's compare RevenueShares Large Cap ETF (RWL) with its cap-weighted cousin (SPY). The total return of RWL for the first half of 2013 was 17.11%. The return for SPY was 13.74% for the capitalization-weighted distribution of the same stocks. In other words, you netted about 3.5 more points of return in six months by using a revenue-weighted ETF rather than a capitalization-weighted ETF.</P><P>RevenueShares ETFs had a stellar first half. They outperformed capitalization-weighted ETFs in small, mid, and large caps, though the component stocks within each of the ETFs are essentially the same. The major difference between the two ETFs is the stock weighting system used within them.</P><P>A note for readers and clients: Sometimes we get lucky. In the interest of full disclosure, which in this case is pleasant to offer, Cumberland Advisors can accurately say it is a holder of the RevenueShares Large Cap ETF (RWL) and Small Cap ETF (RWJ).</P><P>We do not hold the RevenueShares Mid Cap ETF. Oh, well, you cannot win all of them.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/_EAjfmmTZKY/revenue-weighted-sp-500-beating-cap-weighted-sp-500-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-10084466765608988692013-10-28T15:03:00.000-07:002013-10-28T15:03:00.110-07:00BANK OF ENGLAND: We&#39;re Looking Into Adopting Forward Guidance Bank Of England MPC Decision, July 2013 - Business Insider<body class="responsive ">FeaturedTrendingRecent<img src="/BusinessInsider.jpg" alt="Business Insider"> Login Remember me I forgot username or password Login with Twitter Login with Facebook Login with LinkedIn Login with Google Register EventsBI Intelligence<button type="submit" title="Search"></button>TechFinancePoliticsStrategyLifeEntertainmentAll Tech Enterprise Science <img 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Markets More: Bank of England Mark Carney BANK OF ENGLAND: We're Looking Into Adopting Forward Guidance Sam Ro Jul. 4, 2013, 7:02 AM 144 <button class="btn button-email" onclick="gaPageTrack('Share','Click','Email');"> Email</button><button class="btn sharing-button"> MoreShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /></button>Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");EmailShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /> <p><img src="/mark-carney-10.jpg" border="0" alt="mark carney" width="480" />REUTERS/Chris Wattie</p>Bank of England Governor Mark Carney</p> See Also <img class="media-object" src="/the-george-clooney-of-central-bankers-just-started-an-incredibly-difficult-job-saving-the-uk-economy.jpg"> The George Clooney Of Central Bankers Just Started An Incredibly Difficult Job: Saving The UK Economy<img class="media-object" src="/albert-edwards-mark-carney-may-become-one-of-the-most-ruinous-central-bankers-ever.jpg"> ALBERT EDWARDS: Mark Carney May Become 'One Of The Most Ruinous Central Bankers Ever'<img class="media-object" src="/rosenberg-in-2007-i-had-a-conversation-with-mark-carney-that-sent-a-chill-up-my-spine.jpg"> ROSENBERG: In 2007, I Had A Conversation With Mark Carney That Sent A Chill Up My Spine The Bank of England is keeping interest rates and its asset purchase plan unchanged as expected.</p><p>But in an unusual move, the BoE issued a statement, which it typically does only when it makes a change in policy.</p><p>Some are attributing this to new BoE governor Mark Carney, who appears to be pushing for more transparency.</p><p>"The latest remit letter to the MPC from the Chancellor had requested that the Committee provide an assessment, alongside its August Inflation Report, of the case for adopting some form of forward guidance, including the possible use of intermediate thresholds," noted the statement.</p><p>Forward guidance is one of the tools employed by the U.S. Federal Reserve in its effort to be more transparent.</p><p>Here's the full statement:</p>Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £375 billionThe Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%.  The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.</p>Since the May Inflation Report, market interest rates have risen sharply internationally and asset prices have been volatile.  In the United Kingdom, there have been further signs that a recovery is in train, although it remains weak by historical standards and a degree of slack is expected to persist for some time.  Twelve-month CPI inflation rose to 2.7% in May and is set to rise further in the near term.  Further out, inflation should fall back towards the 2% target as external price pressures fade and a revival in productivity growth curbs domestic cost pressures. At its meeting today, the Committee noted that the incoming data over the past couple of months had been broadly consistent with the central outlook for output growth and inflation contained in the May Report.  The significant upward movement in market interest rates would, however, weigh on that outlook; in the Committee’s view, the implied rise in the expected future path of Bank Rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy. The latest remit letter to the MPC from the Chancellor had requested that the Committee provide an assessment, alongside its August Inflation Report, of the case for adopting some form of forward guidance, including the possible use of intermediate thresholds.  This analysis would have an important bearing on the Committee’s policy discussions in August. In the light of these considerations, the Committee voted to maintain the size of its programme of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.  The Committee also voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 17 July. <button class="btn share" data-fade-replace="bottom-share-links"> Share</button><button class="btn button-email" onclick="gaPageTrack('Share','Click','Email');"> Email</button><button class="btn sharing-button"> MoreShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /></button>To embed this post, copy the code below and paste into your website or blog.600px wide (preview)<iframe src="http://www.businessinsider.com/embed?id=51d55641ecad04c82100002d&width=600&height=430" width="600" height="430" border="0" frameborder="0"></iframe>400px wide (preview)<iframe src="http://www.businessinsider.com/embed?id=51d55641ecad04c82100002d&width=400&height=430" width="400" height="430" border="0" frameborder="0"></iframe> 300px wide (preview) <iframe src="http://www.businessinsider.com/embed?id=51d55641ecad04c82100002d&width=300&height=430" width="300" height="430" border="0" frameborder="0"></iframe> Alerts Newsletter URL Recommended For You <img src="/transparent.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/transparent.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/transparent.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/transparent.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/transparent.gif" alt="" /> Insane Footage Of A Leopard Attack In The Wild   Insane Footage Of A Leopard Attack In The Wild   More: Bank of England Mark Carney Get Alerts for these topics » </p> <img class="author" src="/sam-ro.jpg"> Sam Ro $('.icon-tooltip').tooltip(); 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Yes No #America<img src="/bacon-flag-usa.jpg" border="0" alt="bacon flag usa" width="340" /></p>How To Make An American Flag Out Of BaconSummer Can Be Crazy Fun In The CityHow Do You Stack Up To These Celebrity Golfers?TrendingThe Future Of Mobile<img src="/kim-kardashian-mario-lopez-phone.png" border="0" alt="Kim Kardashian Mario Lopez phone" width="340" /></p>Life After Instagram: Opportunities In The Mobile Photo-Sharing EcosystemWhy Local-Mobile Marketing Is ExplodingInside The Rise Of Responsive Design And Its Pros And Cons As A Mobile StrategyHow Location-Based Services Are Transforming The Mobile IndustryAdvertisementIn partnership with <img src="/BetterJobsLogo.gif" alt="BetterJobs">Find A JobTech JobsMedia JobsFinance JobsC-Level JobsDesign JobsSales JobsSee All JobsThanks to our partners<img class="pull-left" src="/catchpoint7.png" alt="Catchpoint - Web Performance Monitoring" /><img class="pull-left" src="/ooyala7.png" alt="Ooyala" /> * Copyright © 2013 Business Insider, Inc. All rights reserved. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Disclaimer Commerce Policy Powered by MongoDB Stock quotes by YCharts Ad Serving by 24/7 Open AdStream Made in NYC </body><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/ZotZjln-6-c/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-72373162614082015482013-10-28T11:30:00.000-07:002013-10-28T11:30:02.549-07:00Markets Are Moving Up On A Big Day For Europe (DIA, SPY, QQQ) <IMG border=0 alt="models weird colorful fashion show belgium paris" src="/models-weird-colorful-fashion-show-belgium-paris.jpg" width=480> REUTERS/Charles Platiau</P>Models present creations for Belgium fashion house Maison Martin Margiela as part of its Haute Couture Fall Winter 2013/2014 fashion show in Paris July 3, 2013.</P>Markets are rallying in Europe. <P>England's FTSE 100 is up 0.8%.</P><P>France's CAC 40 is up 0.9%.</P><P>Germany's DAX is up 0.7%.</P><P>Spain's IBEX 35 is up 0.7%.</P><P>Italy's FTSE MIB is up 0.6%.</P><P>"Portugal is conveniently reminding investors that the Euro area still has its problems and Greece has also offered its concerns to the mix," said UBS's Paul Donovan of the volatility that's returned to Europe this week. "Although not seemingly as severe as other years, 2013 does seem preparing for a Euro summer problem or two."</P><P>Later today, the Bank of England and European Central Bank will wrap up their respective meetings and update the world on their local interest rate policies.</P><P>"This week’s meeting will be the first with the new Governor, Mark Carney, in the chair," said Societe Generale's Brian Hilliard of the Bank of England. "He will arrive to a great fanfare but he will first need to familiarise himself with his new colleagues and with the issues before suggesting policy changes, even if he already deems that appropriate. So no action is likely this week."</P><P>Here's Donovan on today's ECB meeting: "Draghi has been at pains to point out that there are limits to monetary policy and the economic stimulus it can provide, but attention has perhaps now shifted more to the question of market stability (i.e. Portugal) and the press conference may see OMT questions asked."</P><P>In Asia, markets mostly ended higher closed with Australia's S&P/ASX up 1.0% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 1.6%.  Japan's Nikkei shed 0.2%.</P><P>U.S. markets are closed today for the Independence Day holiday.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/t05D878gqUY/global-stock-markets-july-4-2013-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-90528172761005719612013-10-28T06:38:00.000-07:002013-10-28T06:38:00.555-07:00The US Stock Market Is Just The Best (SPY, DIA, QQQ) <IMG border=0 alt="New York Stock Exchange Wall Street trader" src="/rtx11b75.jpg" width=480> REUTERS/Lucas Jackson</P>Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly after the opening of the markets in New York July 3, 2013. </P>The high growth, Emerging Markets (EMs) have watched their stock markets tumble. <P>On the other end of the spectrum is the wildly volatile Japanese Nikkei. Even after tumbling into a bear market this year, the market is still up 36% year-to-date and 57% from a year ago.</P><P>But the happiest equity investors in the world  should probably be the ones with money in the U.S. stock markets.</P><P>Not only is the U.S. outperforming the EMs, it's also outperforming the Developed Markets (DMs). This goes for year-to-date and one year returns.</P><P>Sure, the Nikkei is crushing the S&P 500 in terms of returns. But volatility has been much lower.</P><P>From Deutsche Bank's Priyal Mulji and John-Paul Smith:</P><P>Over the last 12 months, EM equities have underperformed DM equities by -15.7%. In absolute terms, EM returned +2.4%, whilst DM returned a much higher +18.1%. Against the US, which has been one of our most favoured markets, EM underperformed by -17.1% (absolute US returns over the last 12 months were +19.5%)...</P><P>Here are the 12-month returns:</P><IMG border=0 alt="stock market returns" src="/screen20shot202013-07-0320at204015020pm.png" width=800> Deutsche Bank</P><P>Here's Mulji and Smith on year-to-date returns:</P><P>...The poor total returns generated by EM equities have been even more pronounced over 2013 YTD, when the relative underperformance versus DM equities has been -18.0%. So far in 2013, EM equities have recorded significant negative returns in absolute terms of -9.6%, whilst DM has remained positive at +8.4%. US equities have delivered even higher absolute returns of +13.3% YTD, implying EM relative underperformance of -23.0% over the same period.</P><IMG border=0 alt="stock markets" src="/screen20shot202013-07-0320at204015820pm.png" width=800> Deutsche Bank</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/M8MHqH0bIZc/us-stocks-market-outperformance-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-82218028082020863782013-10-28T01:58:00.000-07:002013-10-28T01:58:00.485-07:00These Microsoft Excel Keyboard Shortcuts Will Save You Tons Of Time Where It Counts <P>One of the biggest advantages of Microsoft Excel is the ability of experienced users to barely touch the mouse.</P><P>They accomplish this by learning simple keyboard shortcuts.</P><P>Once you know a few shortcuts that you need to use all the time, you can save large amounts of time that would otherwise be spent doing mindless work. </P><P>By learning these simple keyboard shortcuts to manipulate data formats, you can be well on your way to getting to that point of Excel ability. </P> <P>Produced by Daniel Goodman</EM></P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/GMkovuq1PUI/excel-keyboard-shortcuts-to-organize-data-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-33093164107847390812013-10-27T22:33:00.000-07:002013-10-27T22:33:00.052-07:00CHART OF THE DAY: The Emerging Markets Have Been A Crummy Place To Invest For Years <P>Investors head to the emerging markets (EMs) for the opportunity to earn big returns.  Of course, those big opportunities also come with the risk of big losses.</P><P>This year's sell-off in EM stocks, bonds and currencies has been particularly brutal with countries like China, Russia, and Brazil deep in the red.</P><P>When you consider EM stocks relative to developed market (DM) stocks, you'll notice that the former has been a major underperformer for years.</P><P>"Except a short patch during the financial crisis of 2007-8, the period from end-2010 to present marks the only episode during which EM equities have consistently underperformed for over ten years," write Deutsche Bank's Priyal Mulji and John-Paul Smith.  "The EM underperformance gap versus DM has persistently widened over 2013."</P><P>"Whilst we do not anticipate that EM equities will give back all of their relative outperformance since 2001, we do think that we are in the middle of a multi-year 10 relative bear market against DM equities, led by the US, which has long been our preferred market," they added</P><P>And you can blame the world's second biggest economy.</P><P>"The driving force behind the next leg down in GEM is likely to be a further deterioration in the Chinese economy, whose weakness is already having a pronounced effect on commodity prices. Our best guess is that EM equities may underperform their US peers by up to 50% before the cycle is over, but the precise outcome is dependent on a number of variables, most notably government policies, which are hard to predict, and on the outlook for DM economies."</P><P>From Deutsche Bank:</P><IMG border=0 alt="Chart of the day shows percent change yoy in relative total return of em equities versus dm equities, july 2013" src="/moneygame-cotd-070313.jpg" width=800> Deutsche Bank</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/onHnBX4Iask/emerging-market-versus-developed-markets-chart-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-70928637436357587242013-10-27T18:38:00.000-07:002013-10-27T18:38:00.956-07:00Egypt&#39;s Stock Market Is Going Totally Bonkers <IMG border=0 alt="Egypt Stock Exchange Traders" src="/egypt-stock-exchange-traders-1.jpg" width=480> REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany</P>Traders work at Egypt's Stock Exchange in Cairo July 3, 2013.</P>The dramatic events in Egypt hit a crescendo on Wednesday when the military removed President Mohamed Morsy. <P>Despite this political turmoil and uncertainty, the Egyptian stock market is exploding higher. Egypt's EGX 30 is at 5,334, up 363 point or 7.3% on the day.  This is the highest level in a month.</P><P>PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian prefers to look at Egypt's credit-default swaps (CDS), which he believes offers a better and "far more comprehensive" snapshot of the country.</P><P>Unfortunately, the latest numbers on the CDS were not immediately available.</P><P>For now, here's the year-to-date chart of the EGX (formerly the CASE) 30 via Bloomberg:</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/js7t5sUZ-tY/egypt-stock-market-surges-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-30905406878740264432013-10-27T15:20:00.000-07:002013-10-27T15:20:00.813-07:00Hot Enough for You? Cool Yourself Off With These 3 Water ETFs Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.<br /><p><a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/07/hot-enough-for-you-cool-yourself-off-with-these-3-water-etfs/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-631536670198631432013-10-27T11:48:00.000-07:002013-10-27T11:48:00.474-07:00Microsoft&#39;s Big Re-Org Could Come Next Week With These Four Execs Gaining Lots More Power (MSFT) <IMG border=0 alt="attached image" src="/microsoft-build-event-steve-ballmer.png" width=480> Microsoft</P>CEO Steve Ballmer could announce his reorganization plan by next week, reports Businessweek's Dina Bass. <P>Ballmer is recasting Microsoft as a "devices and services" company <BR>trying to put the company's hardware and cloud offerings on equal footing with software. He's expected to reassemble his top execs to align Microsoft to that new image.</P><P>Zynga's hiring of Xbox Chief Don Mattrick as its new CEO, announced Monday, may have put a wrinkle in Microsoft's reorganization plans.</P><P>Mattrick was thought to be up for a bigger role running Microsoft hardware. The person that takes on that role will clearly get more power, but they'll also be on the hot seat. Sales of Microsoft's Surface PC have been sluggish so far, according to some reports.</P><P>Here's who is expected to gain power now, according to unnamed sources quoted in the Bloomberg report. </P><P><STRONG>Windows chief Julie Larson-Green:</STRONG> It looks like Larson-Green could get the hardware job, overseeing hardware engineering for all devices, including Xbox consoles and Surface tablets, Bass reports. </P><P><STRONG>Windows Phone software chief Terry Myerson: </STRONG>Myerson could take over Windows operating system engineering, and that group could be combined with the phone group, according to Bass' sources. That could take Microsoft one step closer to having the same Windows code base work on its PCs, tablets and phones. Today, Windows 8.1 is for PCs and tablets, while Windows Phone is on its own.</P><P><STRONG>Server and Tools chief Satya Nadella: </STRONG>Nadella is currently the head of the $19 billion division that builds the company’s Windows server developer tools and cloud services. He could be put in charge of a new unit that's more focused on cloud services for enterprises.</P><P><STRONG>Skype president Tony Bates:</STRONG> Bates could emerge as the biggest winner, as he could be in charge of acquisitions and developer relationships, and maybe even strategy, Bass reports. That would give him far more power across the company than running the Skype business unit, which is current role. </P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/90BwQ3y3kT0/microsofts-big-re-org-could-come-next-week-with-these-four-execs-gaining-lots-more-power-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-17023571426226572862013-10-27T06:58:00.000-07:002013-10-27T06:58:00.313-07:00The Surge in Crude Oil Isn’t Over Yet Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.<br /><p><a href="http://investorplace.com/2013/07/the-surge-in-crude-oil-isnt-over-yet/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-72109071571784753732013-10-27T03:13:00.000-07:002013-10-27T03:13:00.118-07:00Crude Oil Jumps After A Super Bullish Energy Report <P>Crude oil is up more than 2% today.  A 10:30 am Department of Energy report showed crude stocks for the week ending June 28 fell by 10.3 million barrels versus an estimated -2.32 million.</P><P>WTI prices have since come down slightly, and are now at $101.52</P><P>Here's the chart:</P><P>Brent is also up big today, +1.33% to $105.39.</P><P>Gas Buddy says this may drive up gasoline prices in the next few days.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/RMlcOcPGxQ0/crude-jumps-on-doe-report-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-39939336611150293512013-10-26T22:47:00.000-07:002013-10-26T22:47:00.537-07:00ECB&#39;S DRAGHI: We&#39;re Keeping Rates Low &#39;For An Extended Period Of Time&#39; <IMG border=0 alt=euro src="/capture-138.jpg" width=480> FinViz</P>The bottom just fell out of the euro. <P>This is all happening as ECB president Mario Draghi speaks about his latest monetary policy decision.</P><P>"Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary," said Draghi in his introduction. "The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time."</P><P>This is "concrete forward guidance," said Morgan Stanley's Elga Bartsch.</P><P>Later in the press conference, Draghi said that the decision to provide forward guidance was a unanimous one.</P><P>Based on the market's reaction, it's pretty clear that the market wasn't expecting such a dovish tone.</P><P>Here are his full introductory comments:</P><P>Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr. Rehn.</P><P>Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the <STRONG>key ECB interest rates</STRONG> unchanged. Incoming information has confirmed our previous assessment. Underlying price pressures in the euro area are expected to remain subdued over the medium term. In keeping with this picture, monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics remain subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. At the same time, recent confidence indicators based on survey data have shown some further improvement from low levels. Our monetary policy stance is geared towards maintaining the degree of monetary accommodation warranted by the outlook for price stability and promoting stable money market conditions. It thereby provides support to a recovery in economic activity later in the year and in 2014. Looking ahead, our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. This expectation is based on the overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics. In the period ahead, we will monitor all incoming information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the outlook for price stability.</P><P>Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the <STRONG>economic analysis</STRONG>. Real GDP declined by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013, following a contraction of 0.6% in the last quarter of 2012. At the same time, labour market conditions remain weak. Recent developments in cyclical indicators, particularly those based on survey data, indicate some further improvement from low levels. Looking ahead to later in the year and to 2014, euro area export growth should benefit from a gradual recovery in global demand, while domestic demand should be supported by the accommodative monetary policy stance as well as the recent gains in real income owing to generally lower inflation. Furthermore, notwithstanding recent developments, the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. This being said, the remaining necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors will continue to weigh on economic activity. Overall, euro area economic activity should stabilise and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace.</P><P>The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. The recent tightening of global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions. Other downside risks include the possibility of weaker than expected domestic and global demand and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.</P><P>As stated in previous months, annual inflation rates are expected to be subject to some volatility throughout the year owing particularly to base effects. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.6% in June 2013, up from 1.4% in May. This increase reflected an upward base effect relating to energy price developments twelve months earlier. However, underlying price pressures are expected to remain subdued over the medium term, reflecting the broad-based weakness in aggregate demand and the modest pace of the recovery. Medium-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored in line with price stability.</P><P>The risks to the outlook for price developments are expected to be still broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to stronger than expected increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher commodity prices, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity.</P><P>Turning to the <STRONG>monetary analysis</STRONG>, recent data confirm the subdued monetary and, in particular, credit dynamics. Annual growth in broad money (M3) decreased in May to 2.9%, from 3.2% in April. Moreover, annual growth in M1 decreased to 8.4% in May, from 8.7% in April. The annual rate of change of loans to the private sector remained negative. While the annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained at 0.3% in May, broadly unchanged since the turn of the year, the annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) weakened further to -2.1% in May, from -1.9% in April. As in April, strong monthly net redemptions in May were concentrated in short-term loans, possibly reflecting reduced demand for working capital against the background of weak order books in early spring. More generally, weak loan dynamics continue to reflect primarily the current stage of the business cycle, heightened credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets.</P><P>Since the summer of 2012 substantial progress has been made in improving the funding situation of banks and, in particular, in strengthening the domestic deposit base in a number of stressed countries. This has contributed to reducing reliance on Eurosystem funding, as reflected in the ongoing repayments of the three-year longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs). In order to ensure an adequate transmission of monetary policy to the financing conditions in euro area countries, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets continues to decline further and that the resilience of banks is strengthened where needed. Further decisive steps for establishing a Banking Union will help to accomplish this objective. In particular, the future Single Supervisory Mechanism and a Single Resolution Mechanism are crucial elements for moving towards re-integrating the banking system and therefore require swift implementation.</P><P>To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A <STRONG>cross-check</STRONG> with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture.</P><P>With regard to <STRONG>other economic policies</STRONG>, the Governing Council notes the initiatives taken by the European Council of 27-28 June 2013 in the areas of youth unemployment, investment and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the European Council’s endorsement of the country-specific recommendations of the 2013 European semester. The Governing Council stresses that implementation of these recommendations is essential to contribute to a sustainable recovery in the euro area. Moreover, the new European governance framework for fiscal and economic policies should be applied in a steadfast manner and much more determined efforts should be pursued to carry forward structural reforms to foster growth and employment. In this respect, the Governing Council deems it particularly important to target competitiveness and adjustment capacities in labour and product markets. Finally, the Governing Council welcomes the setting-out of a number of steps towards the completion of the Banking Union as moves in the right direction, but also urges that they be implemented swiftly.</P><P>We are now at your disposal for questions.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/H8_LmBzkb_o/euro-dives-after-ecbs-draghi-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-37785389906735807412013-10-26T17:49:00.000-07:002013-10-26T17:49:00.041-07:00The Situation In Portugal Remains Volatile <IMG border=0 alt="Lisbon Portugal traders" src="/rtx11aw0.jpg" width=480> REUTERS/Jose Manuel Ribeiro</P>Traders monitor the screens at a bank in Lisbon July 3, 2013. Portugal's benchmark PSI20 equity index tumbles 6.4 percent in massive volumes, hitting a near eight-month low, as the country's political crisis fuels fears that Lisbon's plan to exit an international bailout could derail. Portuguese banks are the most hit, with Banco Espirito Santo sinking 10 percent and Banco Comercial Portugues dropping 12.9 percent. </P>European stock markets are in the green today, recovering some of yesterday's losses. <P>Leading the way is Portugal, which tanked yesterday after the country's Finance Minister unexpectedly resigned over a dispute about austerity.</P><P>"The political crisis that’s unfolding in Portugal is a reminder that staying the course on fiscal consolidation and structural reform crucially depends on the ‘buy in’ of the politicians and the population at large," said Morgan Stanley's Daniele Antonucci. ". A U-turn in policy might perhaps be averted – as the situation is such that there’s little alternative to the current path – but the newsflow surely has become more negative."</P><P>"The risk is that, regardless of whether new elections can be avoided, political mistakes or a weaker political commitment might well result in a slower pace of adjustment," he continued. "In turn, this could complicate the upcoming Troika review, with the official lenders struggling to continue to depict Portugal as a ‘good student’, and perhaps delaying future loan tranche disbursements."</P><P>Until we get more clarity, we can probably expect more up-and-down volatility.</P><P>Here's a look at Portugal's PSI 20 today via Bloomberg:</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/XawD8jdM_UM/portugese-market-rallies-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-69443371815922821292013-10-26T14:15:00.000-07:002013-10-26T14:15:00.765-07:00MISS: ISM Services Index Falls And Misses Expectations <IMG border=0 alt="busy, hustle and bustle, moving, move, work, working, cook, cooking, waiter, deli, eisenberg's sandwich shop, eisenbergs, classic restaurant, old school new york, nyc, january 2012, bi, dng" src="/eisenbergs-nyc-tour-jan-2012-bi-dng-img5729.jpg" width=480> ">Daniel Goodman / Business Insider</P>The June reading of the ISM non-manufacturing (aka services) index is out and it's a miss. <P>The headline number fell to 52.2 in June from 53.7 in May.</P><P>Economists were looking for a reading of 54.0.</P><P>Here's a look at the sub-indices:</P>Business Activity Index at 51.7%New Orders Index at 50.8%Employment Index at 54.7%<P>From the report:</P><P>"The NMI™ registered 52.2 percent in June, 1.5 percentage points lower than the 53.7 percent registered in May. This indicates continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 51.7 percent, which is 4.8 percentage points lower than the 56.5 percent reported in May, reflecting growth for the 47th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 5.2 percentage points to 50.8 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4.6 percentage points to 54.7 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 11th consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 1.4 percentage points to 52.5 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in June when compared to May. According to the NMI™, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. Respondents' comments are mixed about business conditions depending upon the industry and company. The majority indicate that growth has been slow and incremental; however, it is still better year over year."</P><IMG border=0 alt="ism services" src="/screen20shot202013-07-0320at2010030220am.png"> ISM</P><P>Click Here For Updates »</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/WRVLmH1lQKs/june-ism-services-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-65962558157535367262013-10-26T10:06:00.000-07:002013-10-26T10:06:00.453-07:00STOCKS RALLY: Here&#39;s What You Need To Know (DIA, SPY, QQQ) Closing Bell, July 3, 2013 - Business Insider<body class="responsive ">FeaturedTrendingRecent<img src="/BusinessInsider.jpg" alt="Business Insider"> Login Remember me I forgot username or password Login with Twitter Login with Facebook Login with LinkedIn Login with Google Register EventsBI Intelligence<button 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Markets More: Closing Bell STOCKS RALLY: Here's What You Need To Know Sam Ro Jul. 3, 2013, 1:00 PM 1,004 <button class="btn button-email" onclick="gaPageTrack('Share','Click','Email');"> Email</button><button class="btn sharing-button"> MoreShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /></button>Tweet!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js";fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,"script","twitter-wjs");EmailShare on Tumblr<img border="0" src="C:\Program Files (x86)\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\How Gold Is Mined\themoneygame\PinExt.png" title="Pin It" /> <p><img src="/american-flag-7.jpg" border="0" alt="american flag" width="480" />REUTERS/Mike Blake</p>U.S. sailors unravel a huge American flag across the field during opening day ceremonies before the San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in their MLB National League baseball game in San Diego, California, April 9, 2013. </p>It was a half-day in the stock market.</p><p>First, the scoreboard:</p>Dow: 14,988.5, +56.1, +0.3%S&P 500: 1,615.4, +1.3, +0.0%NASDAQ: 3,443.6, +10.2, +0.3%<p>And now, the top stories:</p>The U.S. stock markets opened in the red, then went straight up, but then slipped a bit into the 1:00 p.m. ET close.We got three big economic reports today.  First was the ADP employment survey, which showed that private companies added 188,000 jobs in June.  This was up from 134,000 in May.  It was also much better than the 150,000 expeted by economists. "The job market continues to gracefully navigate through the strongly blowing fiscal headwinds. Health Care Reform does not appear to be significantly hampering job growth, at least not so far," said Moody's Mark Zandi. "Job gains are broad based across industries and businesses of all sizes."Initial weekly jobless claims fell to 343,000 from 348,000 a week ago. This was a tad lower than the 345,000 expected by economists.  "Initial jobless claims continue their sub-350k readings, hinting that any near-term payroll weakness is temporary," tweeted Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna.The June ISM services index was a bit mixed.  The headline number unexpectedly fell to 52.2 in June from 53.7 in May.  This was worse than the 54.0 expected by economists.  But on the bright side, the employment sub-index climbed 4.6 points to 54.7.The U.S. markets will be closed for Independence Day tomorrow.  But we'll be back on Friday. 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Yes No #America<img src="/bacon-flag-usa.jpg" border="0" alt="bacon flag usa" width="340" /></p>How To Make An American Flag Out Of BaconSummer Can Be Crazy Fun In The CityHow Do You Stack Up To These Celebrity Golfers?TrendingThe Future Of Mobile<img src="/kim-kardashian-mario-lopez-phone.png" border="0" alt="Kim Kardashian Mario Lopez phone" width="340" /></p>Life After Instagram: Opportunities In The Mobile Photo-Sharing EcosystemWhy Local-Mobile Marketing Is ExplodingInside The Rise Of Responsive Design And Its Pros And Cons As A Mobile StrategyHow Location-Based Services Are Transforming The Mobile IndustryAdvertisementIn partnership with <img src="/BetterJobsLogo.gif" alt="BetterJobs">Find A JobTech JobsMedia JobsFinance JobsC-Level JobsDesign JobsSales JobsSee All JobsThanks to our partners<img class="pull-left" src="/catchpoint7.png" alt="Catchpoint - Web Performance Monitoring" /><img class="pull-left" src="/ooyala7.png" alt="Ooyala" /> * Copyright © 2013 Business Insider, Inc. All rights reserved. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Disclaimer Commerce Policy Powered by MongoDB Stock quotes by YCharts Ad Serving by 24/7 Open AdStream Made in NYC </body><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/xqWS5vOA1MQ/closing-bell-july-3-2013-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8955118149711021471.post-8259460537176849042013-10-26T05:34:00.000-07:002013-10-26T05:34:00.500-07:00UBS: Delaying The Obamacare Employer Mandate Should Boost Jobs... Temporarily Yesterday afternoon, the Treasury Department issued a statement saying that the White House would delay until 2015 the enforcement of the requirement for business to provide workers with health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, aka "Obamacare." <P>Under the ACA, businesses employing 50 or more workers would have to offer health insurance or pay a penalty of $2,000 per worker.</P><P>Jeff Saut, the top strategist at Raymond James, immediately blasted an email that read: "This is a big deal. A major 2H risk off the table..."</P><P>However, UBS's Drew Matus isn't convinced that it's completely positive.</P><P>First, here's the good news:</P><P>The Administration announcement of a one-year delay in the employer mandate component of the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare”, could help boost payroll growth. Although the delay is only temporary, for those employers on the cusp of the 50 employee threshold this delay may prompt them to hire as they may be unwilling to continue to postpone hiring to avoid being subject to the mandate. Additionally, employers may delay plans to cut back employee hours to keep them from being classified as “full time” (the law considers employees who work 30 hours per week full-time).</P><P>But:</P><P>Although we see the most likely scenario being that the delay will have a mild positive effect on payrolls over the next few months, <STRONG>the risk exists that another change in regulations only adds to the uncertainty facing businesses. Increased uncertainty could create an even greater sense of caution among hiring managers and may crimp hiring at the margin, on net</STRONG>.</P><P>In other words, companies got a delay in cost increases in exchange for longer-term uncertainty.</P><br /><p><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMoneyGame/~3/RLbSeRdv7vE/ubs-obamacare-delay-brings-uncertainty-2013-7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">View the original article here</a></p>Chris Holmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15628999737870265940noreply@blogger.com0