Jimmer makes this look easy.

With every passing game, the legend of Jimmer Fredette grows.

The electrifying BYU guard started the year as a consensus All-American pick, and he’s justifying the lofty expectations. He leads the nation in scoring (26.7 per game), and has had three games of 40 or more points just this month. (He just missed a fourth at UNLV on January 5 with 39 points.) He seems to be able to hit from anywhere on the floor, often pulling up from well beyond the three-point arc for flawless jumpers. He even hit a half-court heave as part of his 47 point torching of Utah on January 11.

And just last night, he went off for 43 points to help put away previously unbeaten #4 San Diego State. After the game, NBA stars like Jared Dudley (“That boy Jimmer Fredette be hooping”), John Wall (“Jimmer Fredette is cold! #respect), and Kevin Durant (“Jimmer Fredette is the best scorer in the world!!”) showered him with praise.

So yeah, Jimmer’s pretty good. But destroying players from Vermont and Chicago State is one thing. Do Fredette’s skills translate to the NBA level?

It’s a tricky question to answer. Obviously, even the best competition at the college level is nothing like the NBA. Virtually every NBA player was an outstanding college player, so if he’s struggling to get his shot off against elite players, he’s likely to have a difficult time at the next level. However, a talented San Diego State team threw everything they had at him, and they weren’t even able to slow him down. More than once, defenders would beg coach Steve Fisher to be taken out, completely gassed trying to keep up with him (though some of that was due to the difficulty of playing at altitude).

Another big concern leveled at Fredette is his defense. It’s one thing to be a dominant scorer, but that’s just half the game. He’d be lucky to see half his scoring average in the NBA, so he’d need to come up with some solid play on defense to merit a roster spot. Yet this doesn’t have scouts as concerned as you might think. Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski reported that one executive watching last night’s game mentioned that it’s easier to teach a player defense than to teach him to shoot like Jimmer does. You don’t have to look any further than this year’s Chicago Bulls to find an example of a mediocre team suddenly becoming solid on defense with a little bit of coaching.

Essentially, nobody knows whether Fredette can be a productive NBA player. He could go one of two ways if he’s drafted next year. On the positive side, he could turn out to be like Davidson’s Stephen Curry. Curry virtually won three NCAA tournament games by himself in 2008, ousting favored Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin before narrowly falling to eventual champion Kansas. Curry was a dynamic scorer who didn’t play much defense, and he faced concerns that he wouldn’t be able to get his shot off in the NBA.

Anyone who’s paid attention to the NBA over the last couple of years knows that Curry turned out just fine. He might be the only untouchable player on a subpar Warriors team (and that includes phenom Monta Ellis) and is one of the best young point guards in the league. Curry’s even a player in the new NBA Jam, for crying out loud.

The concern, though, is that Jimmer won’t turn out like Curry, but rather like Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison. Like Curry and Fredette, Morrison was a scoring machine during his college career, even being named co-national player of the year in 2006. However, he had a subpar rookie season for the Charlotte Bobcats, tore his ACL the next year, and was traded to the Lakers in 2009, where he rode the bench for two years. He’s now out of the league.

Personally, I think there’s a third player that he should try to emulate in his NBA career: J.J. Redick. Redick was the other co-player of the year in 2006, and he’s enjoyed a successful career as a role player for the Orlando Magic. Rather than trying to be the scoring menace he was at Duke, he carved out a spot for himself as a spot-up three point shooter, similar to Ray Allen’s role for the Boston Celtics. He doesn’t need to dominate the ball or generate headlines to be a devastating weapon for his team.

But no matter how he turns out next year, it’s clear that we’re seeing something spectacular this year. BYU fans will long cherish memories of Jimmer shaking defenders, burying impossible threes, and hitting absurd circus shots. And for one night, all of America got to join in with them.

Well, except for San Diego.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or you can tell him what a ridiculous Mormon-hugging Jimmer fanboy he is in the comments section below.

Lock the doors. Hide ya kids, hide ya wife. Do whatever you have to do to keep yourself safe from the menace.

Blake Griffin is coming.

He is a being of pure, malevolent energy. He is a Category 5 hurricane. He is all four horsemen of the apocalypse. He could probably beat up Chuck Norris.

Whatever you want to call him, it’s pretty clear that the Clippers rookie is one of the most incredible players of his generation. There’s absolutely no question that he’s going to win the Rookie of the Year award this year, barring his demise on the court. No one else is even close.

Consider the numbers he’s putting up this season. He’s averaging 22.5 points per game, good for 12^th in the league, just behind Carmelo Anthony. The next closest rookie is 67^th in the NBA (Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins). Griffin’s 12.8 rebounds per game are good for 4^th in the league. No other rookie is in the top 20.

In fact, the player with the closest scoring and rebounding totals to Griffin might surprise you. Griffin’s 22/13 average sounds a lot like the 22/13 average of Dwight Howard. Take a look at their Spider Graphs and tell me what you think:

Now, clearly there’s a difference between their block totals, but remember, Howard is perennially a league leader in blocks. Imagine if Griffin decided to dedicate the energy he spends on dunks toward blocks. Not only could he rustle up 3 or 4 blocks a night, but he’d be swatting them through the roof consistently.

Griffin is putting up virtually superstar-level numbers in just his first season. We’re seeing something special here, and it’s even more impressive when you consider that he’s doing it in spite of the Clipper curse. This special part of Los Angeles has long been where promising young draft picks go to rot and die. Blake’s trying to turn that all around.

He’s doing it with freakish energy and athleticism. We’ve all seen the dunks. On his first night against Portland, Griffin announced his arrival to the NBA with a deafening tomahawk putback that had Clipper fans jumping out of their seats with disbelief. He put up a 20/14 on the Blazers like it was no big deal. Ho hum. Just another day at the office.

Since that night, he’s had 24 more nights of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, topped off by the jaw-dropping 47/14 he dropped on the Pacers on Monday. For Blake, this really is just another day at the office. He’s abusing defenders and scoring almost at will. It’s like trying to stop a tornado, or a semi without brakes. Don’t even bother. Just step out of the way.

Opposing teams seem like they’re waiting for Griffin to hit the rookie wall. Sure, he’s been fantastic through 40 games, but it’s just a matter of time until scouting reports catch up to him, right? That would make sense, if his numbers were dropping off at all. Take a look at his scoring and rebounding over the course of the season, though:

If anything, his scoring looks like it’s slowly tapering upward. He hasn’t had a game where he scored fewer than 20 points since December 11. He’s had at least 10 rebounds per game in every game since November 18.

Oh, and did I mention that he’s still a rookie? He’s only going to get better from here.

All this basically tells you exactly what your eyes do every time you watch him, though. The kid is absolutely insane. He missed his first season with a knee injury, and he seems determined to make up for lost time. He’s throwing down with a fury that might be unmatched in the history of the league. At the rate he’s going, Griffin is a lock to either win multiple MVPs or die on the court in the next decade.

Either way, we’re seeing something incredible. We owe it to ourselves to watch before he ushers in the End of Days and Blakemageddon is unleashed upon us.

Three of these four players will make the All-Star Game. Guess who's getting left out?

When All-Star voting totals were released last week, there weren’t any real surprises with the leading vote-getters. Kobe Bryant led all players in votes, and mainstays like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Paul all had a starting spot. And even though he’s only played in five games this year, Yao Ming is your starting center for the West squad, fueled by millions of crazed, partisan Chinese basketball fans.

The real question, though, is who will earn the seven reserve spots on each team. The coaches for each side (likely San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich and Boston’s Doc Rivers, though Erik Spoelstra could make a run at it) get to choose two guards, two forwards, and one center as reserves, with two more picks being at their discretion. (Injured players are replaced by commissioner David Stern.) While we still have over a month until the game will be played, we’re far enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea who will make it.

Earlier this week we looked at the likely reserves for the West team, which was no small feat. The West isn’t struggling for elite players, and it was a challenge to pare the contenders down to just seven players. However, we find just the opposite problem for the East. Choosing five starters isn’t especially difficult, and the voting totals reflect exactly that. Your five starters in the East are Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade at guard, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett at forward, and Dwight Howard at center. No real surprises there.

In determining who deserves the seven reserve spots, we first need to figure out the likely candidates at each position. Let’s start with the guards.

Two of those names shouldn’t surprise you as potential All-Stars, but Raymond Felton might make you look twice if you haven’t seen the Knicks play yet this year. While most of the credit for New York’s rebirth justly goes to Amare Stoudemire (who will get some love later in this article), Felton has quietly been playing the best basketball of his career. Rather than Stoudemire struggling without Steve Nash, we might actually be seeing Stoudemire turning an average (at best) point guard into an elite player.

Joe Johnson has been one of the league’s best shooting guards for years, but his sub-par numbers and prolonged injuries mean he’s unlikely to make the team this year. Derrick Rose, of course, is on the short list for MVP this year. He’s a shoo-in. If I’m picking the teams, I’d go with Rose and Felton here. If you disagree with my choice of Felton, I’d love to hear who else you have in mind at guard. This year’s crop in the East is pretty slim.

Next we take a look at forwards, which are a bit deeper than guards in this conference, but not by much. Take a look at what the conference has to offer in the way of small forwards:

Other than James, these two are the best small forwards in the conference. Granger made the All-Star Game last year, but he’s regressed a bit this year, despite the Pacers’ increased win total. Pierce, meanwhile, has been as fantastic as ever. Even though his graph is a bit smaller than Granger’s, I’d be stunned if he didn’t earn a spot this year. Coaches tend to favor winning teams with their spots, and they tend to be heavily swayed by past All-Star appearances. Granger has one appearance; Pierce has eight. I have to think he’s going to make it nine this year.

Next, we take a look at the power forward situation in the East, where thankfully, we at least have three worthy contenders.

As mentioned earlier, Stoudemire is destroying all comers in New York, effectively putting to bed the idea that he was only as good as Steve Nash made him. He’s easily the best of this bunch, and possibly playing the best at his position in the league. Amare is a lock to get a spot. (In fact, his vote total is virtually identical to Garnett’s, so he may even get a starting spot on the team.)

As a member of the Big Three in Miami, you’d expect Bosh to get a spot, but the fact of the matter is that he’s hardly been playing like an All-Star this year. (We covered Bosh’s struggles earlier in the year when we took a look at why the Heat got off to such a poor start.) Certainly he’s no slouch, but his low rebound and block totals show that he hasn’t made as big of an impact on defense as Miami would have liked.

Instead of Bosh, what about Atlanta’s Josh Smith on the All-Star Team? It was a travesty that he was left off the team last year, and he’s responded by playing even better this year. He dwarfs Bosh on the bottom half of the graph, suggesting that he’s playing lights-out defense. I expect to see J-Smoove  joining Amare on the team this year.

Finally, let’s consider the center situation. Howard is head and shoulders above the rest, but there are some solid contenders to keep in mind.

Roy Hibbert has been having a breakout season for Indiana this year, and is the major reason they’re in contention for a playoff spot this year. I’d love to see Hibbert get an All-Star spot this year, but his graph suggests that maybe he’s not quite as dominant a player as others at his position have been. You know, like Andrew Bogut. Bogut was another player inexplicably left off the team last year, and he’s responded by becoming the league’s blocking leader. He’s been solid on offense too, so it’s not like we’re struggling to come up with a decent player here.

And then there’s Al Horford, who has turned into one of the league’s best centers this year. None of his numbers leap off the page like Bogut’s do, but he has an impressive all-around game. Together with Smith, he’s part of the league’s highest-scoring frontcourt this year. (No joke. Atlanta’s a much more impressive team than most of us realize.) I think Horford will snap up the reserve center spot here, while Bogut will have to pick up one of the remaining two spots.

So that gives us the following roster for the East All-Star Team:

PG: Rondo, Rose, Felton
SG: Wade
SF: James, Pierce
PF: Garnett, Stoudemire, Smith
C: Howard, Horford, Bogut

Maybe it’s not as potent offensively as the West team, but that’s a lockdown defensive team, which should make for an interesting matchup this February.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or tell him that Chris Bosh clearly deserves an All-Star selection in the comments section below.

This is an all-too familiar sight for Cleveland fans this year.

For seven years, we heard all about the fact that the atrocious supporting cast in Cleveland was holding LeBron James back from his eventual greatness. In his last two years as a Cavalier, James led his team to over sixty wins each season and were a legitimate threat to win a championship each year.

Then “The Decision” happened and James left for Miami. Cavs management decided that while they obviously wouldn’t be quite as good this year, they would probably do alright only losing one player from a 60+ win team. So they let him go, replaced him with Ramon Sessions, and hoped for the best.

And while things weren’t great at first, they certainly weren’t bad. The Cavs knocked off Boston in their home opener en route to a respectable 7-9 start that had everyone thinking that maybe the Cavs could keep their heads above water and make a run at a low playoff seed.

Since then? The Cavs have defied even the most pessimistic predictions with a 1-21 stretch. They’ve only won once since about Thanksgiving, and it’s doubtful they’ll win before Martin Luther King Day, with games at Utah and Denver next up on the slate. Over the last 22 games, they’ve allowed 107 points per game while only managing just over 92 a game themselves. Essentially, they’ve been losing by about 15 points a game for a month and a half.

Last night was the final straw. They came into Los Angeles making a big deal about switching hotels to avoid sharing the same accommodations as James and the Heat, only to suffer what might be the worst loss any NBA team has endured in a few seasons, and yes, that includes that 104-59 beatdown the Celtics laid on the Knicks in 2007. Incredibly, the Cavs managed to score less than those Knicks while allowing more points.

112-57.

Give yourself a moment to think about that. Remember, BYU’s Jimmer Fredette lit up Utah for 47 points on the same night. Even if Jimmer had been playing for Cleveland tonight, they still would have lost by 8.

It’s time to face facts: the Cavs, as presently constructed, are terrible. Awful. Irredeemably abysmal, and Cleveland management needs to blow this team up. Now. Right away.

We had our fun cheering for the loveable martyrs in the early part of the season. Virtually the whole world was on their side when Miami came to town. You’d think a 28 point loss would have been enough to clue the team in, but no, they’ve gamely soldiered on, hoping to compete this year.

Cavs owner Dan Gilbert promised Cleveland faithful that his team would win a championship before LeBron would. For one game this year, the Cavs even had a better record than the Heat. But chew on this: while the Cavs have been mired in their 1-21 slump, Miami has actually ripped off a 21-1 streak. This team couldn’t possibly be on any more wrong a track (unless they were on an 0-22 skid, I guess).

So Dan, I’m addressing this to you. You need to blow up this team. You need to set aside your pride, admit that you were wrong about this team contending, and ship out all of your expensive players. Plenty of teams could make use of someone like Antawn Jamison. Or J.J. Hickson. Or even Mo Williams. Get rid of them and stockpile young talent so you can build for the future.

The city of Cleveland deserves better than repeated 15 point losses. It certainly deserves more than losing by 55 to the Lakers’ scrubs.

It’s going to be painful in the short term, for sure. If you blow the team up now, you could be looking at a 15 or 20 win season, and you can bet your season ticket holders aren’t going to be too excited about that. But if you try to hold on to this team, you could be looking at years of 25 or 30 win seasons, just like it was before LeBron came to town, and I can tell you that if that’s your plan, you won’t have to worry about what your season ticket holders think, because you won’t have any.

I don’t care if you blow up the team all at once, sell it off bit by bit, or wait until the trade deadline to try and see who else appears on the block. Just do something. This is the latest low point in a season full of them, and unless you act soon, you’re just going to see more and more of them. Like when your team has to go to Miami on the 31^st.

The real question, though, is who will earn the seven reserve spots on each team. The coaches for each side (likely San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich and Boston’s Doc Rivers, though Erik Spoelstra could make a run at it) get to choose two guards, two forwards, and one center as reserves, with two more picks being at their discretion. (Injured players are replaced by commissioner David Stern.) While we still have over a month until the game will be played, we’re far enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea who will make it.

Let’s start by looking at the West, which despite seeing its depth decrease this year due to trades (Amare Stoudemire), injuries (Brandon Roy), and decline due to old age (Steve Nash), is still as crowded as ever. Chris Paul will start at point guard, but Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker are all nipping at his heels. We’ve probably only got one spot for a point guard; who should it be? We’ll turn to Spider Graphs (for a primer on how they work, click here) for a visual look. The maximum values on the graph have been set to NBA leaders in each category, so think of each value as a percentage of the maximum.

All three of them stack up pretty evenly, so it’s difficult to make a choice. Parker has rejuvenated himself and sparked the Spurs to the league’s best record. Russell Westbrook kept his team flying high even after Kevin Durant’s slow start this year. And Deron Williams is just playing MVP ball and keeping his Jazz in contention. For my money’s worth, Westbrook is probably the most deserving player, but I’d be surprised if Williams doesn’t get the spot, if only because he’s been left out of the game for so many years. (Thunder fans, don’t worry. Westbrook will have his turn.)

So what about shooting guards? Kobe Bryant (shock!) gets the starting spot here, but the West isn’t hurting for viable options at the position. As I see it, the three contenders are Manu Ginobili, Kevin Martin, and Monta Ellis. Here’s how they measure up:

Despite all the MVP talk we’ve been hearing for Ginobili, this didn’t turn out quite the way you’d expect. Martin’s been doing fine, but Ginobili’s graph almost swallows his whole, and Ellis’ does the same for Ginobili’s. From a raw production standpoint, Ellis deserves this spot. Of course, outstanding players for subpar teams have historically had a difficult time finding their way onto the team. I fully expect Ginobili to pick up this spot and to continue Golden State’s long All-Star drought.

You’d think he might be able to snag one of the two additional reserve spots, but this year, they’re almost definitely going to power forwards. This is probably the deepest position in the NBA right now. By my count, there are five guys with legitimate claims to an All-Star spot at the position. Two of them are locks to get in, and you’ll see their Spider Graphs below.

If you’re surprised to see the names of Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol up there, you probably haven’t seen the Mavs or the Lakers play a game this season. These two have been outstanding and have earned serious MVP discussion. It’s extremely unlikely that either of them miss a spot. So what about the other three contending power forwards? As I see it, there’s probably just one spot to be claimed by either LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, or Kevin Love.

Here’s where it gets tricky. Each is fantastic in their own right, and each has a unique case to make. Aldridge has done this year what naysayers said he couldn’t for his whole career – step up and become the number one option for a team. In the absence of Brandon Roy, he has steadied the ship for the Blazers this season. Griffin has merely electrified the league with high-flying dunks and incredible athleticism. Watching him play is almost like watching someone play NBA Jam for 48 minutes with the turbo button stuck down. And all Kevin Love has done is lead the league in rebounding all year. (You may have heard about that 31 rebound game he had earlier this season.) The real question here is whether the voters will go for a rookie or a player on a terrible team. Love’s probably the best option here, and I feel like he’ll be picked up, but any of these three would be a strong selection.

Unfortunately, center isn’t nearly as deep in the West. With Yao Ming and Greg Oden out for the year and Andrew Bynum already missing significant time due to injury, there aren’t many marquee centers out there. I only found two even worth considering. Take a look and see what you think.

Both are virtually identical, statistically. Tim Duncan has been to about a dozen of these games, though, while Jefferson is looking to make his first. As good as Big Al has been this year, though, I would be surprised if Duncan isn’t chosen over him, purely for familiarity’s sake. (It’s the same reason why Shaq continued to play in All-Star Games well after his prime.) Sorry Utah fans, but this just isn’t Jefferson’s year.

Throw in Russell Westbrook as the final selection, and here’s how I see the West All-Star Team shaking out:

PG: C. Paul, D. Williams, R. Westbrook
SG: K. Bryant, M. Ginobili
SF: C. Anthony, K. Durant
PF: P. Gasol, D. Nowitzki, K. Love
C: Yao M., T. Duncan

And just for grins, let’s say David Stern selects Blake Griffin to replace the injured Yao.

Coming tomorrow: the Eastern team, which has about half the depth of the West squad. Pity we can’t just transfer some of them over there.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or you can just tell him he’s clearly never watched a game of basketball in his life in the comments section below.

Cliff Lee’s decision to re-sign with Philadelphia is old news at this point. Much has been made of the fact that Lee is joining an already loaded rotation that pushes 2008 postseason hero Cole Hamels to the #4 spot. The Phillies are the overwhelming favorites, and for good reason. Opposing teams will have their work cut out for them facing potential series lineups like Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt. Yikes.

So it’s not particularly surprising that Philadelphia is the odds-on favorite to win the World Series this year. No, what’s surprising is how they got here. After being the consensus favorites in the National League for the last three years, they’ve found themselves on the wrong end of playoff blowouts for the last two years (2009 to the Yankees, and 2010 to the Giants). So how do they choose to reassert their dominance? By remaking their team in the image of one of the most surprising underdogs of the last decade.

Now before you start flaming me to a well-done crisp in the comments section, Giants fans, understand that I have nothing but respect for your team. The rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgardner is tremendous. Those four pitchers put San Francisco in a position to win every game they started. The reason the Giants were such a compelling underdog story was because they generated almost no offense. Rather than trying to built a balanced team, Giants brass chose to put all their eggs in one basket. All they needed to do was get to the playoffs and let their pitching rotation carry them the rest of the way. And wouldn’t you know, it worked.

And now the Phillies look like they’re headed the same direction. Sure, they still have power hitters like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard to carry the offense. But in the free agent season, when they had a chance to either shore up their offense or their pitching, they went for pitching. They let Jayson Werth go and brought Lee in his place. The Phillies are betting that they can do in 2011 what the Giants did in 2010.

There’s a fair chance they can, but it’s still a risky proposition. A lot went right for the Giants in 2010 that was far from a certainty. Many of the Giants’ bats were older veterans cast off from other teams. Like it or not, players like Aubrey Huff, Pablo Sandoval, and Cody Ross probably aren’t going to carry the Giants to another World Series title next year. You might say the same thing about players like Placido Polanco and Raul Ibanez for the Phillies.

Of course, another risk you run by focusing solely on pitching is the damage that can be done with a single injury. None of the Giants’ top four starters missed a single start this year, keeping the team above water all season. Had even one of those four pitchers missed significant time with an injury, it’s unlikely the Giants would have won the NL West. None of the Phillies’ pitchers are known as particularly injury-prone, but even something as simple as a finger blister could put one of them on the DL for a long time and cripple the team.

That’s not to say that any of these things are particularly likely. The Phillies have the best team on paper heading into 2011, and until proven otherwise, they deserve to be the favorites to win the pennant. As a Rockies fan, I have to admit that I’m not particularly excited by the moves they’ve made to shore up their team. (I’m especially displeased that Cliff Lee is back in the NL to wreak havoc. At least he’s not in our division.) But there’s still cause for concern. The Giants may have made an exciting run, but there’s nothing to suggest that their plan is viable in the long term. We’ll see if the Phillies’ decision to emulate them turns out to be a smart one.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or just tell him he’s a Rockies homer that just hates the Giants in the comments below.

Broncos owner Pat Bowlen got tired of watching these moments on the sideline.

After only two seasons, and nine wins, Josh McDaniels is done as head coach of the Denver Broncos. The former New England Patriots offensive coordinator, McDaniels won the first six games of his head coaching career, taking the league by storm in 2009, but limped to an historic collapse and an 8-8 finish. The Broncos are 3-9 this season after generating little offense against division rival Kansas City on Sunday in a 10-6 loss.

The firing doesn’t come as a complete surprise. After McDaniels sullied the franchise’s integrity in Spygate II, Broncos owner Pat Bowlen made it clear that McDaniels’ job was not particularly secure. That doesn’t make the firing any less sudden.

After McDaniels traded away the Broncos young core of talent including running back Peyton Hillis (962 yards rushing in 2010), tight end Tony Scheffler (292 yards receiving in 2010), cornerback Alphonso Smith (5 interceptions in 2010), quarterback Jay Cutler (2545 yards passing, 17 TDs in 2010), and wide receiver Brandon Marshall (693 yards receiving in 2010), not to mention his inability to get along with defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who was perhaps the biggest reason for the Broncos fast start in 2009 and who has led the Dolphins to the number 11 ranked defense in the NFL (while the Broncos plummeted to 29), the Broncos have fallen from being a respected playoff contender to being a laughingstock bottom-dweller.

As with Eric Mangini, Nick Saban, Romeo Crennel, and Charlie Weis before him, McDaniels is cursed with his mentor Bill Belichick‘s bull-headedness and generally unpleasant way of doing things. In a town like Denver, the Patriot Way was never popular to begin with, but after six victories, even the most rabid fans could get used to the idea. After 17 losses, McDaniels lost his way and his job.

McDaniels, though, showed that he can be an effective NFL coach during a six-game stretch in 2009. He also continued to demonstrate his magic touch with offenses, turning reclamation projects like Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd into Pro Bowl talents. He never got the opportunity to do the same with Tim Tebow, which may doom the young quarterback’s career.

What doomed McDaniels may have also been his unwillingness to play Tebow. Not nearly as big a factor as his missteps with ethics and his personnel blunders, his expressed intent to keep playing Orton rather than play Tebow certainly didn’t help. The Broncos, unlike the Vikings and the Cowboys who also had their coaches fired midseason, don’t have much to play for. There’s no spark to ignite, no fanbase to excite. The fanbase is already incensed and just the firing of McDaniels is enough to keep Denver fans interested for the rest of the year. Also, there’s no Leslie Frazier or Jason Garrett to take the reins after McDaniels’ firing. Instead, 14-year NFL vet Eric Studesville will take over the Broncos for the remainder of the year. Perhaps the remainder of 2010 will turn into the Tebow Showcase for the Broncos, which could make or break his worth to the next head coach.

McDaniels will likely find himself nearly untouchable after his antics that, according to Todd Haley, got “people talking” about him. And not in a good way. Two years ago, the Broncos had their choice of coach and were the most attractive opening in an offseason that saw many. They chose the 32-year-old Josh McDaniels over Steve Spagnuolo (who has found success with Sam Bradford and the Rams), Rex Ryan, and the younger Raheem Morris, who is in the midst of a largely-successful rebuilding project in Tampa Bay.

It should not be forgotten, however, that McDaniels is still one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL. Yes, he disassembled the number two offense in the NFL and made it worse. But what he was able to do with Orton and Lloyd shouldn’t be discounted. Perhaps he took on too much too early. Perhaps he just was plain wrong in his philosophy. Maybe it was all bad luck. In any case, McDaniels is still a gifted play-caller and is still regarded around the league as an offensive genius. Just maybe a little in over his stubborn head.

And that’s on the Broncos management. Broncos COO Joe Ellis and owner Pat Bowlen decided to search for a coach first and a general manager second, unlike their division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs hired their GM, Scott Pioli, from New England, while the Broncos took a coach, then picked up Brian Xanders, formerly of the Falcons, as GM. The Chiefs are running away with the AFC West this season. After the demise of McDaniels, it’s likely that Bowlen will be looking for a stronger, more experienced hand to guide the franchise. Xanders may very well be on his way out as well in favor of a more powerful front office type who will select their own coach. Perhaps former rival Marty Schottenheimer in a Mike Holmgren-esque role? The “retired” Bill Parcells? Bill Cowher, who would be only too happy to do what McDaniels couldn’t?

Unfortunately, the Broncos are no longer the attractive destination for a coach that they were just two years ago, meaning all of the above may be out of the question. Instead of a team poised for success, they’re a rebuilding project that will take a few years. When McDaniels took the job, the Broncos were a couple wins away from the playoffs. Now, they’re a couple years away. Would they have been worse off with another year of McDaniels’ program? Or would it finally start to click in Year Three with Elvis Dumervil back on defense and Kyle Orton a year more experienced in his system? Pat Bowlen, who has receded from the public eye at age 66, didn’t want to risk another year lost.

McDaniels, despite his immense talent, likely won’t get any favors across the league where he’s not well-liked. Although he will probably get a chance again at some point in the future, McDaniels will be forced to go back to assistant coaching. Perhaps even to re-energize Bill Belichick’s offense again. I’ve always been a McDaniels fan, despite his demeanor and his attitude. He’s a football man, a good playcaller, and a passionate coach.

Like Mike Shanahan before him, McDaniels is the victim of too much power. The Broncos, like the Browns, Chiefs, and Dolphins before them, will likely be forced to invest more power in their front offices to rebuild their product on the field.

How much is this guy worth?

You may not have heard, but Derek Jeter’s contract is up, and he’s negotiating with the Yankees for a new one. He’d like to make between $22 and $25 million a year for at least the next four years (Who among us wouldn’t?). Those stereotypically tight-fisted Yankees, however, only want to give Jeter $15 million a year for three years.

Both sides make good arguments. Jeter’s camp argues that as the face of the Yankees, which he’s been since 1998, he makes the team millions of dollars a year that they wouldn’t otherwise see, and he’s entitled to a cut of that. The Yankees, however, contend that they are giving him a cut of that money. It’s just that he’s not worth anywhere near $25 million a year, especially now that he’s 36.

It’s an interesting question. How do you determine how much a player is worth?

A player’s worth is a little nebulous, but we do have some tools that help us figure it out. The most common one is WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which essentially tells us how many more games a team would win with Player X instead of a generic, AAA-level player. A solid starter ought to have a WAR between 2-3, an All-Star around 5, and an MVP around 7-8. WAR is calculated differently by Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, so we’ll include both here as we take a look at how Jeter has performed over the course of his career.

Looks like he’s had three MVP-level seasons, but on average, he’s wavered between All-Star and solid starter status. It’s worth pointing out that every time Jeter has had an MVP season, the Yankees have won the World Series (1998, 1999, 2009). Not too shabby. But how does that translate into salary?

That, of course, is a little trickier. We can look at free agent salaries and compare them to WAR to get an idea of how much each win above replacement is worth, but it’s not an exact science. (It doesn’t help that we have to adjust for inflation.) The table to the right shows how much, roughly, owners have been willing to pay for each win above replacement over the course of Jeter’s career.

It’s not perfect, but this gives us a good idea of how much a player ought to make based on WAR. A player with a WAR of 5 in 2004, for instance, should have earned about $15 million. Of course, that’s not always how it turns out, if only because we have no way of knowing how many wins a player will be responsible for at the beginning of the season. Everything’s guesswork, and it’s easy to second-guess bad contracts in hindsight.

The other thing that makes estimating Jeter’s value tricky is that contracts aren’t generally decided year-to-year. Jeter wants a six year contract. The Yankees would like to sign him for three. Either way, they have to decide now what he’s going to be worth several years in the future. That makes things difficult when his value is dramatically higher (or lower!) than his actual salary. Players on rookie deals are usually making six figures, and in cases like Jeter’s, that can mean they’re being dramatically underpaid. Meanwhile, established veterans can make upwards of $20 million a year, even though their best years are clearly behind them. Take a look at this graph and see what I mean.

While Jeter has more seasons that he was “overpaid” (his actual salary was higher than WAR would predict it should have been), a quick look at the graph shows that over the course of his career, Derek Jeter has actually been underpaid. According to Fangraphs, Jeter has made nearly $5.5 million less than he should have, and if you ask Baseball Reference, it’s over $12 million. Pretty interesting, considering the conventional wisdom is that Jeter is overrated and making too much as is. Maybe the reason Jeter’s camp is asking for so much is because he was dramatically underpaid for his first five years.

But even if you assume that’s the case, the contract Jeter is asking for would still tilt him toward being overpaid, because his ability is going to decline as he gets older. Remember, he’s 36 right now. He’s not as bad as his 2.5 WAR in 2010 would suggest, but he’s not as good as the 7.1 WAR he had in 2009, either. A simple regression tells us that while he’s likely to bounce back a bit next year, we can expect him to be performing at about replacement level in 2014 (when he’ll turn 40). Nobody, not even the Yankees, wants to be paying a replacement-level player $25 million.

Assuming the price of a win continues to rise as it has in the past, and further assuming that he declines like we think he will, Jeter should be worth about $33 million over the next three years. The Yankees are offering him $45 million for that same time period. Even if you use Baseball Reference’s higher numbers, that should put Jeter’s career earnings exactly at what he was worth. Jeter’s proposed contract, however, would make him overpaid to the tune of $32 million for those three years – and that doesn’t even take into account his age 41, 42, and 43 seasons, when he would almost certainly be putting up a negative WAR.

For once, it looks like the Yankees are actually proposing a reasonable deal.

Hang in there, Broncos.

First Boise State surged ahead. Then Nevada fought back. Then it looked like it was all over with a miracle catch, only to have the victory snatched away with too-short goalposts. And then in overtime, a kick that split the goalposts ended the Broncos’ season.

There will be no national championship. There will be no BCS bowl game. In all likelihood, the Broncos will play in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl as the WAC champion with an 11-1 record (assuming they beat Utah State next weekend).

All of this is fair why, exactly?

There are now seven other FBS teams with just one loss: LSU, Stanford, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and Nevada. Out of those seven, six of them are possible at-large BCS teams. Nevada, despite obliterating teams all year (except for potent Hawaii), doesn’t have a realistic chance. Nor does Boise State, which has looked like the most complete team in the nation and will only have a loss to a Nevada team that will likely be ranked in the top 12 by the end of the year.

The reason why can be found in three little words that have been tearing apart college football for decades: strength of schedule.

It’s a battle teams outside the power six conferences have been fighting for years to no avail. Boise State has tried for years to schedule the toughest non-conference games they could in order to balance out a weak conference slate. This year, they scheduled Virginia Tech, Wyoming, Oregon State, and Toledo. The Hokies sound strong, certainly, but the rest of those teams are hardly a murderers’ row.

But if you’re Boise, what do you do? Teams like Texas and Florida aren’t exactly itching to play you when a loss could eliminate them from the title discussion early. So all you can do is schedule tough non-AQ teams like Toledo and hope it’s enough to get you noticed. Meanwhile, teams like Texas and Florida chastise you for not playing anyone serious. But you aren’t playing anyone serious because they won’t agree to play you!

But for all their blustering, are Texas and Florida playing schedules that are any tougher? Boise’s strength of schedule is actually the 8^th toughest in the country. Meanwhile, Florida comes in at no. 37, while Texas is a dismal 75^th. Granted, neither the Longhorns nor the Gators are exactly tearing it up this season, but it’s interesting to note that traditional power schools aren’t quite playing the vicious schedules we think they are.

So how do Boise and Nevada stack up against the likely BCS teams this year? Assuming those are teams with just one or no losses, let’s take a look.

Even with Nevada’s big win last night, they still play a weaker schedule than the BCS top 10. But Boise has actually played a tougher slate than all but two of these teams. Are we sure WAC football is as bad as we keep saying it is?

One of the biggest complaints thrown at teams like Boise (and TCU, of course) is that they couldn’t survive the grind of a conference slate like the SEC offers. There’s probably something to that, too. In terms of strength of schedule, the SEC has five teams in the top 10 and seven in the top 25. They play tough football in the South. No one can dispute that. What’s worth pointing out, however, is that the other five auto-qualifying conference also couldn’t survive the grind. Does anyone think that Oklahoma State or Nebraska (the two likely Big 12 championship game contenders) would skirt through the SEC undefeated? What about Ohio State, or Stanford?

For teams outside the BCS aristocracy, there’s just no way to win. When they lose even a single game – a luxury afforded six other teams in the top ten – they’re told they aren’t good enough. If they win all of their games, they’re told they didn’t play any good teams – even when the numbers show they played better teams than the aristocracy.

All the Broncos can do is keep fighting for relevancy outside the sport’s elite. Maybe someday, they’ll be welcomed in as a brother and an equal. Maybe someday we’ll have a sensible, rational way to determine the national champion. Maybe someday, every team will be allowed to play on a level playing field.

It just probably won’t be any time soon.

Will Carlos Delgado have reason to smile come April?

Remember Carlos Delgado? He sure hopes you do. Delgado, the former Mets, Marlins, and Blue Jays slugger who has 473 home runs to his name, signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox in August of 2010, but quickly injured his left hip after only five games and had to have surgery. After rehabbing, Delgado feels he can play in 2011 and joins a crowded field of first base/DH free agents this winter.

Unlike last Sunday’s free agent profilee, Carlos Delgado is the anti-Nick Johnson. At 38 on Opening Day, Delgado’s only upside is the power in his bat. After arthroscopic surgery on his right hip that ended a promising 2009 season with the Mets, Delgado rehabbed in his native Puerto Rico and played winter ball to try and show teams he was able to play. Although scouting reports weren’t kind to his defense, he showed enough offense that the Red Sox took a chance on him when Kevin Youkilis went down with designs on making him a platoon with the right-handed Mike Lowell. It wasn’t to be.

Now Delgado wants to play again in 2011 to make a run at what would be a first World Series appearance, and also to try and reach the 500 homer plateau. There’s reason to be optimistic. Delgado’s 2008 was a bounceback year after a subpar (for him) 2007, posting a .271/.353/.518 line (.364 wOBA) with 38 home runs, 14 more than the 24 he hit in 2007. In 2009, Delgado played only 26 games, hitting a promising-but-largely-meaningless-in-a-small-sample .293/.393/.521 (.390 wOBA) with 4 home runs. At least for 26 games, Delgado still had the power he showed in 2008, which is better than not having it (I guess). With elite power becoming a rarer and rarer commodity, Delgado has shown the ability to keep smashing longballs even in his late 30s.

Unfortunately for Delgado, his three hip surgeries, two on his right hip and one on his left, aren’t helping things. Of course, he’s already had surgery on both hips, so it’s not like he’s got a third one to hurt. It is doubtful Delgado would have been able to keep the power he flashed two years ago in 2011 even without the surgeries, but with them, it seems even less likely. And after the recent hip surgeries on Mike Lowell and Alex Rodriguez that noticeably sapped both of their power, it’s not a welcoming environment for aging sluggers with bad hips. The one thing Delgado has going for him in that department, though, is his willingness to prove himself and play for much less than A-Rod or Lowell.

Delgado’s deal with the Red Sox was for a prorated portion of a $3 million contract, something that, after injuring yet another hip, he probably won’t be able to duplicate in 2011. Really, Delgado is in a similar boat as Nick Johnson. The return on Delgado is even more unsure and the price for getting that return will likely be in the form of a guaranteed contract rather than a simple spring-training invite as it might be with Johnson, though. It only takes one GM to think Delgado can still hit home runs, and I’m willing to bet (less than $3 million) that there’s more than one that wouldn’t mind taking a cheap chance on Delgado next season with an incentive-laden contract beginning in the $1-2 million range. And that may be all Delgado can hope for.

At best, Delgado should probably be used mostly at DH, but the Red Sox’s willingness to use him at first base with Lowell and his experience in the NL shows that there’s at least a chance he can handle the field. He can’t be worse than Adam Dunn, right? In fact, the losers of the Big Donkey Sweepstakes might do well to take a look at what Delgado has to offer. Terry Francona thought there was nothing wrong with Delgado’s bat, and the Sox were ready to bring him up by September 1^st, until his injury. Like Dunn, though of course to a lesser degree, Delgado represents the kind of coveted power bat that could put some pop in the middle of the lineup, even at age 38. While Delgado surely won’t put up the same numbers as Dunn, he will come at a much, much lower price. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think Delgado could still park 20 to 25 balls in the seats in 2011 and manage something in the range of a .340-360 wOBA, more than a team is likely to get out of Johnson, Lance Berkman, or most of the free agent first basemen in the second tier like Jorge Cantu, Troy Glaus, and Adam LaRoche. Add that to his patience at the plate and veteran demeanor and he could be a valuable bat for a team on a tight budget.

The same cautionary methods that applied to Nick Johnson apply to Delgado as well: he’ll probably need the DH, but could log some innings at 1B if necessary. That lends itself to an AL team, although if a budget-conscious team in the NL, like the Diamondbacks, wanted to take a chance on Delgado’s health, they could hand him a first base job and have themselves a bargain. Or a fourth hip surgery. In the AL, a team like the Rangers could be a good fit for Delgado, providing a safety net for Mitch Moreland and giving Texas the chance to catch Vladimir Guerrero’s lightning in a bottle for the second year in a row, but at an even lower price. Like Guerrero last year, Delgado’s drive to succeed and veteran pride should not be underestimated here. A 38-year-old doesn’t have two hip surgeries in a year and rehab twice just to play mediocre baseball. If the White Sox strike out on Dunn and Paul Konerko late in the game, Delgado could be a possibility. In their eternal search for bargains, the Rays could be a landing spot for Delgado to replace Carlos Peña’s bat in the middle of that order as well.

Come February, teams looking for 1B/DH types could have a few bargains on their hands to choose from. Delgado, if healthy, will likely provide more power than all the others without a job late in the game and could prove to be a more effective option than players who will get substantially more money than he will. Once the bigger dominoes begin to fall, Carlos Delgado will be a legitimate option for any team looking for power in the middle of their lineup. His desire to play next season and the positive reviews on his swing from his short time with the Red Sox bode well for his chances, but he’s 38 and coming off yet another hip surgery. Delgado’s upside and price tag go together so well, though, that he’ll have a job come April.