All of the different presentations they reported on were quite intriguing and just worsened my desire to attend next year’s conference. But perhaps the theory that stuck out best in my mind was the Nash Equilibriums in NBA Offenses, which I learned via John Hollinger’s article “Basketball Stats World: Next Step?”. It’s an ESPN Insider article so to explain the idea of Nash’s Equilibrium, I’ll start by saying it is not referring to Steve Nash. It’s meant to pertain to John Nash, the crazy smart guy from “A Beautiful Mind”. The theory was presented by a guy named Brian Skinner. He says that NBA teams tend to give the ball to their go-to-guy in clutch situations. Seems perfectly obvious, right?

The problem with this scenario is the defender can intuitively know that the ball should be going to the opposition’s best player on the court and he then can adjust his defense to maximize his efficiency if that situation plays out.

Now, if you’re the team on offense, how do you combat that issue of having a defender that knows your best weapon will get the ball? Well the answer is pretty simple, you distribute the shot to someone else, of course.

Now, Skinner gave an interesting comparison to this exact situation in the form of traffic networks. The point of transportation is to get from point A to point B the fastest, and with so many different routes to get to point B, which do you choose? Well, obviously, most people would turn to the highway to get there the fastest. In basketball terms, to get from point A — the ball — to point B — the basket — you utilize your “highway”, or best player, to get there. But in Nash’s Equilibrium, Skinner points out that to avoid the highway being jammed — the defensive player stuffing your best option on offense because he is a smart defender and knows it’s going there– you need to distribute the ball to get to your destination, that is, the game-winning basket.

Hollinger goes on to say in the article that most NBA offenses do distribute the ball to other options but only for the first 47 minutes of any ball game. In that last minute or two, offenses tend to break down and become their worst enemy by forcing all their hopes onto their best player and hoping for a good result. This makes sense for anyone that’s watched some NBA basketball over the years.

What got me thinking deeper about this was when I applied this theory to the case of the Timberwolves. The Wolves have all the different options — roads to get to point B — as any team does in the league, but the problem that sticks out is the Wolves options seem to have some flaws. Many of our streets, or players, contain stop lights, speed bumps, pot holes and/or traffic jam causing accidents. All of which stop the team, or at least slow us down considerably,  from arriving at our destination. Well, then if our alternative roads or options don’t work, then we can just use our highway to get there. But I went on to ask myself, who is our highway? Well, err, umm… exactly.

Ever since we traded Kevin Garnett away, many have preached that the Wolves lack that superstar talent that could bring us to our destination: Victory. A lot of teams have that go-to-guy that they can depend on down the stretch. LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Durant, Roy, you know the guys. When the game is on the line, Skinner believes a team should distribute the ball until they find the best option to reach their destination. But as Hollinger puts it, most teams don’t do that anyways because its just the nature of the game and they instead rely on their main weapon as a means of obtaining that goal. The Wolves need to find their “highway”. Certainly Al looked like the team’s “highway” last night but how many times have we seen him on the bench down the stretch? In the few close games the Wolves have had, Jonny Flynn has gotten the ball the most and delivered just once (the Utah game). With a disappointing rebuilding season 3/4 of the way behind us and a potentially fruitful offseason nearly here, the Wolves have to find that guy who can be our highway at the end of the game, even if its in spite of discarding some of the other roads, or players, in the process.

Timberwolf Tracks:

• As I said already, Jefferson has come back and is more than happy to be here.

“It feels good, man,” Jefferson said at the team’s morning shootaround. “It was the longest seven days of my life. I feel good. I’m glad I’m back and I have to make sure I stay back this time.”

Of course a Big Al throwback game comes with pluses and minuses. On the plus side Al did pretty much what he wanted to on the block and finished 15-21 from the field and was the first Wolf to break 30 points this season.

The minus of course was that no one else really had a good game on offense. (Other than Sessions but we’ll get to that.)

The difference in this one was the Mavs zone defense. It frustrated the Wolves who couldn’t shoot over it and also helped force them into 25 turnovers, including 8 from Jonny Flynn. The Wolves actually did well to keep it somewhat close in spite of the 17  turnover difference.

On to the Wolves related notes:

• Miracle of miracles, I saw not one but 2 great passes from Big Al out of the post. Even better was the fact that they were all to Wolves players cutting behind the zone to the hoop. One was to Sessions and the other to Gomes. It was beautiful basketball, I just wish I wouldn’t be so shocked to see it.
• Oh Jonny. What are we going to do with you? Your defense is far from David Kahn’s prediction of first team NBA. Sure you had 4 steals. But I counted at least 4 other “gambles” that left the Wolves with 4 players guarding 5. On offense, how many 3’s do you need to shoot with 18+ seconds left on the shot clock? How many times can you avoid getting the ball right away to Big Al when he’s not being stopped? I really want to be on board with you as the Wolves point guard. I do. But it’s getting harder and harder to stay on board.
• Ramon Sessions was 5-5 from the floor with 2 assists (and 2 turnovers). He only played 18 minutes to Jonny’s 30. His +/- was -7. Jonny’s was 1 better at -6. This is an example of when advanced stats make my head hurt.
• Hey coach can you please play Sasha Pavlovic some more? He’s only, you know, awful. His adjusted +/- on the season is only -12. Last night you played him 21 minutes and the Mavs outscored us by 20 during that time.
• Corey Brewer’s shooting is regressing. Sure he’s hit a 3 in 28 straight games which is remarkable. But he’s not the shooter we saw in January. He’s broken 50% shooting just twice in the last 15 games going back to the start of February.
• I know he couldn’t put the ball in the hoop down low, going 1-7, but only 12 minutes for Senor Amor?
• Ryan Gomes did quietly have a nice game with 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists and a 0 +/-.
• Shawn Marion showed once again why the Wolves need an athletic guy like say Rudy Gay or Wesley Johnson to swing from the 3 to the 4. Marion finished with 29 points, 14 boards, 3 steals.

Next up the Wolves host the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night. Let’s hope they bring the same energy they brought when they snapped that 15 game losing streak way back at the end of November.

Timberwolf Tracks:

• Here is a preview for tonights match-up with the Dallas Mavericks.
• Jonny Flynn has surely had an inconsistent season. Though only being a rookie, The Bleacher Report is going so far as to day Flynn is not the answer for the Wolves. Premature? Yes. Fair accusation? Somewhat.

Coming into the draft, Jonny figured to be a bonafide rookie of the year candidate. And although has shown some flash, it has become perfectly clear that Flynn’s so-called POTENTIAL is nothing more than a solid spark off the bench, a taller Nate Robinson with better passing abilitys.

• Corey Brewer is making splashes into the Most Improved Player of the Year Award with his hot, new shooting stroke. But is that enough? In typical head coach fashion, Kurt Rambis wants to see more.
• Again, its premature and unfair to look at plus/minus numbers with such a limited body of data to work with, but Darko has proven to be a solid addition thus far. The Wolves have proven to be better with him on the floor.

Simply put, the Wolves lacked any physical presence tonight. Even when things got chippy, especially between Luis Scola and Ryan Hollins, the Wolves failed to elevate their intensity and level of play to match that of the Rockets. And I think the Rockets used their stiff mentality to push their lead beyond the threshold of the T-Wolves.

First off, I’d like to pose this question: When a team shoots a high percentage, is it a result of bad, lazy defense? Or does it correlate with the “Hot-hand” theory? Well, the Rockets began the game shooting 66.7% in the first quarter and didn’t decline much from there. The Wolves got off to a good start shooting as well but in the last two minutes of the first threw up some poor shots to sharply decline their percentage to 47%. The Rockets ended the game shooting a respectable 47.4%. The Wolves shot 45%.

In the second, the Rockets started to take over. I might add they did it subtly, as the Wolves didn’t seem to play bad, just not great. But the Rockets still went into halftime with a 10 point lead, 60-50.

The third started similar to the second, with the Rockets slowly playing better than the Wolves but never stepping on their throats to keep them out of it. For example, the Rockets started the quarter 3-3 from 3-point range but it never held the Wolves out for good. They slowly kept chipping away a couple of points at a time.

The fourth, once again, was no different. The Wolves kept cutting the lead, then went into a funk that led to another double-digit lead for the Rockets. At one point late, the Wolves were down by nearly 20 but fought back to cut the lead to nine only to give it right back and allow the Rockets to nail two 3-pointers to bury us into the court. Needless to say, it was an odd basketball game to watch considering we were never out of it despite shooting terribly and being down by almost 20 at one point. Very up-and-down.

The big story of tonight’s game was Luis Scola, sadly enough. His oddly cocky and burly (I don’t know if I can call him “burly” with that girlish hair-du) attitude led the way for the Rockets. He started off early, going 4-4 at one point and ended the first quarter with 11 points and six rebounds. He never looked back from there. The Wolves had difficulty getting him to miss mid-range jumpers in which he had success with all night. Quick curl plays and pick-and-rolls from the top of the key weren’t defended properly and usually left a wide open Scola to hit an 18-foot jumper. Even when someone got a hand up, it was usually Darko flailing into the air then falling onto Scola sending him to the foul line. He ended up with an impressive double-double of 25 points and 21 rebounds.

One highlight for the Wolves was Kevin Love. Nothing new, right? His full-court length outlet passes (I counted three of them) and rugged rebounding gave the Wolves opportunities to get back in the game, and they did at times but it just wasn’t enough. Only problem with Love tonight was his shot wasn’t as money as usual and he seemed to play less tonight. Sure he played 33 minutes but it just didn’t seem like his presence was felt as much as we needed it to be. When he was on the court good things happened, when he was sitting, well, it was vice-versa. It just seemed like he never got into the right groove. He ended up with 20 points, 11 rebounds and four assists. Outside of Love, we lacked the sniper like shooting we needed tonight in order to keep on the heels of the Rockets consistently.

The only Wolf willing and able to score tonight other than Love was Ryan Gomes, whom is my new favorite player because he gave my mother an autographed pair of game worn shoes earlier this week. What a sweetheart? Gomes unleashed this brutal spin move which he utilized brilliantly from the high post tonight. He simply wound his body up tightly, then whirled around defenders and took it hard to the rack which resulted in either an open lay up or a trip to the line. He ended up with 17 points.

As for the other Wolves, none simply played hard enough to stick with the Rockets. I was again impressed with Darko’s basketball I.Q. tonight. He seemed to sense where people were on the court and made adjustments accordingly like tip passes through two defenders to Hollins underneath for some slams. Hollins was  7-7 tonight but probably five of them were dunks and all a result of beautiful passes set up by another player. He only created one shot for himself. A nice little hook-shot I might add. Flynn shot well and had 14 points and limited his turnovers to three but he wasn’t enough of a stickler on defense to frustrate Aaron Brooks, whom shot the lights out from everywhere on the floor finishing with 25 points of his own. Brewer looked so-so as, like I said in the pre-game piece, he was trying to make too many plays especially at the wrong moments. He’s not Kobe Bryant nor even close, so the off-balanced-”I hope you go in”-shots don’t work and just seem awkward. Brewer was a feisty defender tonight as he poked at dribblers from behind causing them to lose control of the ball. But he never quite slowed down his own counterpart though. Kevin Martin shot well tonight going 11-23, 4-10 from 3-point land and ended with 30 points. He was a tough man to tackle and not many people contested his shots from outside, giving him some good, open looks all night.

All in all, tonight was not the best performance for the Wolves. The bench play wasn’t as solid as we could’ve hoped, despite Kevin Love’s performance. There were a lot of open shots bricked off the rim which resulted in Scola’s impressive rebounding numbers. But it still comes down to defense. Going back to the question I posed earlier, which do you think is the correct answer? Is it a copout for me to say both answers are right? Because it truly was a lack of intensity on the Wolves part on defense as well as some hot hands on the Rockets like Scola, Martin and Brooks, who kept throwing daggers into the bullseye from 10-22 feet out all night. Sure, you could argue 47% isn’t that great, but I’ll bet that if tonight’s game wasn’t as fast paced, both teams would have less possessions and the Rockets would’ve shot above 50% for sure, because when they were on, they were on.

The Wolves have now lost 10 of their last 11 and are not looking like they desire to turn things around. The return of Al Jefferson should surely help but the team needs other players to step up as they hope to kick themselves out of this current funk. Up next will be another match-up with the Dallas Mavericks at the Target Center. Let’s hope for good things to come starting then on Monday night.

Rockets: 30-30

Team	Offensive Efficiency	Defensive Efficiency	Pace
Timberwolves	101.3	110.2	95.8
Rockets	106.6	106.9	93.6

Everything’s bigger in Texas, as well as the level of competition. The Wolves lost to the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday and come home to the Target Center to face the Houston Rockets. Houston has had success at the Target Center winning four games in a row the past two seasons. In complete irony, the Wolves have struggled at the Target Center this year with a puny record of 9-21. Is it possible for an away team to have the advantage at the opposition’s arena? We’ll see about that. As for the players, the Rockets are coming in with a new shooting guard in Kevin Martin, who’s averaging 25 points a game in the past five contests with his new squad. His opposition, Corey Brewer, has slowed down a bit as of late but only in terms field goal percentage. I’m sensing a sense urgency from Brewer — he’s trying to make plays because, well, no one else is — which has brought his field goal percentage down a little bit. Al Jefferson will be sitting on the bench tonight, as he serves the final game of his two game suspension for his DUI charge. In his wake, Darko will get his second start as he and Ryan Hollins will be facing the shorter frontcourt, Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, of the Rockets. That may be a key tonight: Get the ball down low to the big fellas. I’m looking for a spectacular performance tonight out of Kevin Love, a.k.a. Senor Amor. He’ll be able to take advantage of a shorter Luis Scola and probably get some good production underneath the hoop tonight. One quick note, Trevor Ariza is listed as Day-to-Day for the game tonight, so he is questionable to play tonight.

Match-ups:

Point Guard:

Jonny Flynn vs. Aaron Brooks

A match-up of two very similar guards, Flynn and Brooks will have fun flying all over the court with each other tonight. Recently, Brooks has scored a lot of points, nearly 25 in the past five games, but it takes him a lot of shots to get that many points. Brooks shoots the ball nearly 25 times per game. So, if you think about it, he gets one point for every shot he throws up, technically speaking of course. If Flynn can get Brooks agitated enough to throw up aimless three-pointers and play more consistent and conservative on the offensive end, then Flynn may just have the advantage tonight.

Advantage: Minnesota

Shooting Guard:

Corey Brewer vs. Kevin Martin

Martin has been on a tear since being traded to Houston. He is thriving in a faster paced offense as well as playing with the little bullet, Aaron Brooks. Brewer’s “hot-hand” has slowed down but his streak of consecutive games with a three-pointer lives on. This match-up will probably be the most important one of the night. Brewer will need to hold Martin to 20 points or less while posting 15-plus points of his own. If he proves unsuccessful, Martin’s difference in points may just be the difference in the game overall.

Advantage: Houston

Small Forward:

Ryan Gomes vs. Shane Battier

This match-up is a bit of a wash but I like Gomes’ range better than that of Battier’s. Although Battier can be a stud on the defensive end — he had seven blocks in their last game against the Sacramento Kings, Gomes I think should have a good game nevertheless. Not to mention, Damien Wilkins has molded into his role as a role-player off the bench and this gives the Wolves some consistency off the bench.

Advantage: Minnesota

Power Forward:

Ryan Hollins vs. Luis Scola

Neither Hollins nor Scola are defensive experts, or even second-raters for that matter. Scola is very slick on the offensive side and a very good rebounder as well. Hollins, not so much, but he can do damage at times. The difference here is the bench play; Kevin Love and Jared Jeffries. Love is the best player out of all four of these and this could pose as potential problems for the Rockets. They’ll need to find an equilibrium for Senor Amor. Period. Oh, and good luck!

Advantage: Minnesota

Center:

Darko Milicic vs. Chuck Hayes

Hayes is just about the biggest bruiser in the NBA. Only problem is he stands a mere 6′6″. Does he stand a chance against the 7-foot mammoth with lanky limbs and an improving game? Not so sure, but it will be interesting to watch nonetheless.

Advantage: Minnesota

Timberwolf Tracks:

• Just as I stressed in the Evan Turner article, coach Rambis believes that if you ‘Get wins,’ fans will follow.
• Slam Online is examining the brutal upcoming schedule that lies ahead for the Wolves.

Every team in the NBA has a string of home games in a row at different times throughout the year, obviously. The Minnesota Timberwolves are about to host the Houston Rockets on Saturday, the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday and the San Antonio Spurs next Friday. Of course, the first game in this stretch against Houston, Minnesota will play without Al Jefferson, who will serve the second game of his two-game suspension.

• Jonah Ballow had the honor of catching up with NBA legends Magic Johnson and Larry Bird and asked them for their opinions on the future of the T-Wolves.

Truehoop Tracks:

• Here is some good video analysis on New Jersey Nets rookie Terrence Williams, who seems to be coming on as of late.
• Many Truehoop writers, headed by Kevin Arnovitz, will be planning to cover the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. It is an important part of our jobs you know.

Other Tracks:

• Zydrunas Ilgauskas is looking to win a title. His best bet: Cleveland.
• Allen Iverson has had an up-and-down season, more-so than anyone else in the league. The next step in this disgruntled superstar’s career: divorce. Iverson’s wife has filed divorce papers. You’ve really got to feel it for A.I.

Jackson (Twin Cities)

When looking at the futures rankings, shouldn’t the Timberwolves be higher than stuck in the mud teams like Detroit? They have a lot of assets going forward between Rubio, Pekovic, 3 draft picks and salary cap space.

John Hollinger

(12:49 PM)

Basically, we’re not sure they know what they’re doing yet. It’s not as bad as the McHale era, where we were darn sure they DIDN’T know what they were doing, but we can’t rate the organization very highly until we see some aspects of a plan starting to form. If they get Rubio and Pekovic in uniform their rating will move way up, but we’ve yet to get much reassuring information on that front.

Jackson (Twin Cities)

Mr. Hollinger, what kind of value does Nikola Pekovic have? What could the Wolves get for him in a trade? Thank you for answering my question.

John Hollinger

(12:55 PM)

Arguably the best player in Europe — a bit short for a 4 but a beast around the basket. Problem with any trade scenario is ability to sign him — Professor Fordjovic knows the details but I believe he’s signed for pretty big money for three or four years.

Timberwolf Tracks:

• The Timberwolves and Target Center management are arguing over who owns the right to an advertising billboard on the Target Center’s wall that just so happens to be in clear view from the new home of the Minnesota Twins, Target Field.
• The Bleacher Report released “The Five Keys To Making The Minnesota Timberwolves Contenders”.
• Rookie guard Wayne Ellington’s sprained ankle is much more severe than first suspected. He is doubtful to play before Monday.
• Here are a few videos claiming “Change is in the air, or better yet, change is on the air.” by Jonah Ballow.
• John Hollinger has named Corey Brewer to his NBA All-Improved Team. (ESPN Insider article)

Truehoop Tracks:

• Kevin Durant’s big night is being compared to the greatest wrestler of all time, The Undertaker!
• Personally, I’ve never been a big ‘Sheed fan, and Zach Lowe of the Celtics Hub ain’t too happy with him either.
• In the first match-up since the T-Mac trade, Carl Landry and Kevin Martin face their former teams.

Other Tracks:

• Jason Terry will have surgery after suffering a blow from Corey Brewer’s elbow to the jaw last night.
• An aching foot will hold Joakim Noah out another three weeks. Poor Bulls.
• This is an updated version of Hoopdata’s table showing the NBA Four Factors for all teams and where they rank among the rest of the league.

What is it about the American Airlines Center that the Wolves love so much? Is it the sell-out crowd that is always into the game? Is it the friendly rims that gave the Wolves a handful of “shooter’s” bounces? Was it just the team bringing a lot of energy after 3 days rest? Or lastly could it be the team rallying together to play well without Big Al Jefferson? I’d say it was all of the above. The Wolves shot the ball well, rebounded the ball well, and were surprisingly aggressive and as a result got the to line well. Those 3 things usually add up to a nice big W. Last night however the Wolves Achilles Heel, turnovers, hurt them in a big way and cost them the win. But as a suffering Wolves fan I was happy that a) the Wolves played hard for seemingly 48 minutes (other than being a little bamfoozled by the Mavs zone during a few stretches), b) they played with energy and did a great job both pushing the ball up court and taking it to the rim aggressively, and c) they played enough D and rebounded well enough to keep it close down the stretch and make it an exciting game. I will be happy to watch these type of losses the rest of the way as opposed to the stinkers they’ve been dropping like last Saturday’s game against Portland.

Other observations:

• Is it just me or the did the paint feel a lot more open last night? It’s amazing what Flynn and especially Brewer were able to do with some room down there. It’s been a long, long time since we’ve been able to watch our team take it to the hoop. I think since Marbury was around 14 years ago!
• Along with that even with the extra space the Wolves still out rebounded the Mavs by 15 including 16 offensive boards.
• Brewer did have 6 turnovers but he finished +6 as a result of being aggressive going to the basket. Yes he was only 6-16 from the floor but if you watched the game a lot of those misses came at the end of the shot clock when he was forced to create his own shot. This is the difference between Brewer and say a top of the line shooting guard like Wade or Roy for instance who can create a much higher percentage shot with less than 7 seconds left on the shot clock.
• Can we all just agree that Ryan Hollins is good for about 10-15 minutes a game but not 36? Ok done and done.
• Ryan Gomes again showed that he can play much better as a stretch 4, especially with Jonny Flynn, than he can when plays at the 3.
• Anybody else jealous that the Mavs have spark plug Roddy Beaubois?
• Really is a Jonny Flynn drive our best end of game play? Can’t we get the ball to Love on the roll for a 3 or Brewer in the corner off a pin-down?
• Coach Rambis, please stop playing Sasha Pavlovic. He’s not good. At all.