Hurricane Prevention

Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl Closing in on Florida and Georgia

2012-05-27T18:22:00.002-05:00

Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will to deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.

Forecast for Beryl

Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest

An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.
On this first day of Hurricane Preparedness Week, FEMA encourages all individuals in hurricane-prone areas, to “Be a Force of Nature”: know your risk, make a pledge to prepare at www.ready.gov/hurricanes, complete your emergency preparedness plan, update your emergency kit and share your preparedness efforts with family and friends.

You can save a life by sharing your readiness tips with others and encouraging them to do the same. Make a YouTube video on how you prepared, post information on Facebook, comment about the importance of preparing on a blog or sending a tweet. You can also share FEMA’s preparedness widget on your website and through your social media network.

More information on how we can all be prepared for this hurricane season can be found by visiting www.Ready.gov/hurricanes.

For information about the hurricane outlooks and National Hurricane Preparedness Week, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare.

Stay informed. Sign up for local weather alerts and warnings at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/.

TROPICAL WEATHER STARTING EARLY

2012-05-27T15:41:00.009-05:00

Who said that tropical weather starts on June 1. Presently off the Florida and Georgia coast is a tropical storm named Beryl that promises to make an abrupt northerly turn, and is expect to travel up the eastern U.S. coast. Somewhere along the line running up the coast, it is expected to turn to the east and head back out to sea, but the waters at this point will be cooler than the waters it traveled into Florida. The storm is expected to dissipate, and not even come close to the new England States as it travels. This is a taste of what's to come this year as far as tropical weather. It is important to be advised about the weather, but it's also advisable to heed the warning of the weather forecasters. The tropical storm approaching Florida is only 100 miles away from the coast, but already the wind has picked up, and storm surges and waves are attacking the coastline. People need to move away from the coastline, but many vacationers refuse to leave and want to enjoy the water as much as they can. This in itself is not a problem. No longer do you have the necessary time to get out of the way of the bad weather, but if in the water too long just prior to the storm arriving at the coast, it is possible to get caught up into Rip Currents. Rip currents are responsible for more deaths over the years the the entire known total of hurricanes and tornadoes.

So why do people continue to put themselves in danger if this is the case? Obviously, people forget the past and what has happened in other places, because it hasn't happened to them. Ignorance is no excuse. Getting caught in Rip currents is a scary thing. Rip currents are produced directly after a wave hits the beach, and the wave currents make a 180 degree turn and head back out to the ocean. These currents are so strong that it is impossible for you to resist or swim towards shore. The best reaction if hit by a Rip current is to swim parallel to the shore, and allow the current to carry you out a bit. When the current subsides, immediately start swimming to shore, but be advised that other Rip currents will follow. If not smart enough, eventually the currents will carry you out to see and most likely you will succumb to what so may other people have endured. Yes, your vacation may be turning into a disaster, but is it worth staying to spite the nose on your face and die because of the bad weather?
I remind all my readers for the reason of this blog. You cannot prevent hurricanes or bad weather, but you can avoid it whenever possible. With a little common sense and smart decision making, you can prevent from becoming one of the fatalities of the storms. Continue to return and read about storms approaching the U.S. and also around the globe.

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season just Around the Corner - AccuWeather Predictions

2012-05-02T23:03:00.002-05:00

The Atlantic will have an average hurricane season this year, with 12 named storms, according to AccuWeather Inc. AccuWeather’s outlook is more robust than those of several other forecasters, including Colorado State University researchers, who have called for a below-average year with 10 to 11 storms. The typical June 1 to Nov. 30 season produces 12 systems with winds of at least 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Atlantic weather is closely watched because the storms are a threat to oil and natural gas interests in the Gulf of Mexico and agriculture in the South. The Gulf accounts for 29 percent of U.S. oil output and 40 percent of refining capacity, while Florida is the second-largest citrus producer behind Brazil. State College, Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather predicts five storms will become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph and two will grow into major systems with winds of 111 mph or more. “Another big storm is possible for the East Coast with heavy, flooding rain,” Paul Pastelok, lead long-range forecaster for the company, said in a statement. Earlier this month, Colorado State predicted 10 named storms would form in 2012. Weather Service International yesterday joined MDA EarthSat Weather and Commodity Weather Group LLC in forecasting 11 storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its seasonal forecast next month.

6 Myths About Tornadoes

2012-04-24T16:44:00.000-05:00

When you're in the path of a twister, every second counts. Knowing effective ways to protect yourself and your family could help save lives.

Myth 1: Opening windows equalizes air pressure and helps prevent the roof from being ripped off.
Fact: This act does little or nothing to prevent damage and wastes precious minutes in an emergency.

Tip: The powerful winds of a tornado can shatter windows. Help avoid injuries caused by flying, broken glass by taking shelter in a windowless room.

Myth 2: Taking shelter under an overpass during a tornado will protect me.

Fact: Overpasses and bridges can actually concentrate airflow from a tornado and become dangerous "wind tunnels." Hiding under an overpass may subject you to severe injuries from flying debris or even cause you to be blown out into the storm itself.

Tip: While not an ideal solution, it may be safer to find a low spot, such as a ditch, and lie face down with your hands covering your head.

Myth 3: The safest place to hide in a storm is the southwest corner of the basement.

Fact: A corner is often safer than against the middle of a long wall, which may be vulnerable to collapse in a tornado. A better bet is to gather in a small, windowless interior room on the lowest floor in a home.

Tip: Protect yourself from flying and falling debris by taking shelter under a heavy desk, mattress or sturdy stairwell.

Myth 4: Tornadoes are easy to spot.

Fact: A tornado may not be visible until it has picked up sufficient dirt and debris. Waiting to take shelter until you can actually see a funnel cloud puts you at risk.

Tip: Listen to weather reports for tornado warnings. A warning tells you a tornado has been spotted on radar and that you should seek shelter immediately.

Myth 5: I could outrun a tornado in my car.
Fact: It's never a good idea to try. The average ground speed of a tornado is 30 mph, but its winds can exceed 200 mph. Even if you're able to stay ahead of the funnel cloud, you could find yourself driving through drenching downpours and flying debris. You might also encounter downed power lines, trees, and other dangerous obstacles in the road.
Tip: While it does not recommend escaping a tornado by car, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says if you are in open country and the tornado is distant, it may be possible to drive out of harm's way. After detecting the direction of the storm's movement, drive at a right angle away from the tornado.

Myth 6: Tornadoes never strike here.

Fact: While some areas have a greater likelihood of tornadoes, these dangerous storms have occurred in every state in the U.S., in both urban and rural areas, and over land, mountains, and water. Never assume a particular location will be spared and always heed tornado warnings when they are issued.

Tip: Even if tornadoes are rare in your area, develop an emergency plan and practice it with your family.

More information about staying safe during a tornado is available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the American Red Cross.

The information in this article was obtained from various sources. While we believe it to be reliable and accurate, we do not warrant the accuracy or reliability of the information. These suggestions are not a complete list of every loss control measure. The information is not intended to replace manuals or instructions provided by the manufacturer or the advice of a qualified professional. Nor is it intended to effect coverage under any policy. State Farm makes no guarantees of results from use of this information. We assume no liability in connection with the information nor the suggestions made.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

2012-04-15T00:12:00.004-05:00

By Matt Daniel

It is April, so what does that mean? It means it is time to focus on the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season!

Every year around this time, Colorado State releases their early Atlantic hurricane season outlook which predicts how many named storms we might see for the upcoming season. This season, Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach are projecting a slightly below average season in the Atlantic, with ten named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes with wind speeds over 110 miles per hour. The main focus of these forecasts have to do with the ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the current temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

In Fall 2011, we were in a weak La Niña pattern, which is the cooling of the waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO cycles can play a major role in the weather globally. For instance, in the United States, La Niña’s are typically known to produce mild winters across the southeast United States and cooler and wetter conditions across the Pacific Northwest. Of course, there are other contributing factors as to why we experienced a mild winter across the United States, but it is important to note that La Niña was a contributing factor. As of today, the weak La Niña pattern has transitioned to neutral phase, but the overall trend is that the eastern Pacific Ocean waters are gradually warming up.

Towards June/July of 2012, a weak El Niño is expected to develop. Typically in El Niño years, wind shear increases across the tropical Atlantic ocean, which is one of the factors that played into Colorado State’s 2012 hurricane projection. Tropical systems cannot develop in areas of strong wind shear, and a strong system that pushes into an area of increased wind shear typically weakens. In El Niño years, South Asia could experience drought conditions while parts of the western coast of South America could see an increase amounts of rainfall.

Another reason the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season could become less active than previous years is because the overall temperatures across the Atlantic ocean are cooler than what we typically see for this time of year. However, the Caribbean and parts of the Gulf Of Mexico are warmer than average. Sea surface temperatures must be over 80° Fahrenheit or 27° Celsius. With temperatures slow to cool, there might not be enough energy to fuel storms that could develop. Ocean temperatures play a huge role on the strength of tropical systems, but are not the only factors. Since temperatures are much warmer along the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, we will definitely have to monitor these areas for future tropical development when the season begins on June 1, 2012.

Here are the numbers......

A look at the Atlantic Hurricane season numbers back in 1992 (El Niño), 2011 (weak La Niña), and the forecast for 2012.

Even though the forecasts claim we should see a less active hurricane season in the Atlantic, it does not mean we will be safe from strong storms impacting populated areas. It only takes one storm to make the season bad. For example, take a look at 1992. 1992 was an El Niño year that only produced seven named storms. However, one of those storms became a major hurricane and caused massive amounts of destruction across the Miami-Dade area and across Homestead, Florida. Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 hurricane with wind speeds around 165 miles per hour. The storm killed 65 people and had $26 billion dollars in damage. With this in mind, everyone should take each season seriously and be ready for tropical systems, especially if you live along the coast.

Phil Klotzbach said:

“Regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is, it takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season”

Bottom line: The early forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season is for us to see a below average season with ten named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The likelihood of seeing an El Niño and having cooler waters in the Atlantic ocean could contribute to fewer storms developing during the 2012 season. However, it only takes one storm to make the season go from great to bad. All residents should still take the necessary precautions in advance of this season in case a storm decides to develop and hit their area. NOAA and Colorado State will have a revised outlook that will be released in late May and early June regarding the 2012 season.

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Forecasters predict fewer hurricanes this year - Season begins June 1st

2012-04-15T00:01:00.001-05:00

By Ric Ward, CNN

updated 6:05 AM EDT, Thu April 5, 2012

Meteorologists Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray say there is "a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean."
They forecast 10 named storms in the Atlantic Basin, of which only four will become hurricanes and two will become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a category 3, 4 or 5 storm.
That compares to an average of 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and three major hurricanes a year for the period of 1981-2010.
The probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the United States is 42%, according to the forecasters. The average for the last century is 52%.
The forecasters base their prediction on the cooling of the Atlantic Ocean over the past several months and the increased chances of an El Nino, or warming of Pacific waters, over this year's hurricane season.
But along with the bright forecast comes a dire warning: "Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
In 2011, Klotzbach and Gray predicted 16 named storms and five major hurricanes. There were actually 19 named storms and three major hurricanes.
Gray runs Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State and has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years.
Klotzbach has worked with Gray on the seasonal hurricane forecasts since 2000.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

2011 Atlantic Tropical Season Comes to a Close

2011-11-24T09:24:00.001-06:00

Storms in pink shading have already formed and dissipated by this date. Storms in red denote either active named storms, or those that were active on this date. Boxed storms indicate the latest storms in each year, or the latest storm to form in an average year.

As you can see, the 18 named storms in 2011 far exceeds the long-term average number of named storms per season (11). The number of hurricanes (7) and major hurricanes (3) in 2011 were slightly above the long-term average.

Now, let's recap the named storms in 2011.

Tropical Storm Sean

Dates of activity: Nov. 8 - 11
Peak Strength:65 mph; 983 mb
Landfall: None
Summary: Tropical Storm Sean started out as a non-tropical area of low pressure before transitioning into a subtropical storm on the morning of November 8, 2011. Later that day, Sean had enough of a concentration of shower and thunderstorm activity near its center to be classified as fully tropical. Just prior to being absorbed by a frontal system on November 11, Sean brought tropical-storm force winds and periods of rain to Bermuda.
Full Recap: Tropical Storm Sean

Hurricane Rina

Dates of activity: Oct. 23 - 28
Peak Strength: 110 mph (Cat. 2); 966 mb
Landfall: Just west of Cozumel (Oct. 27) as tropical storm
Summary: Rina's bark ended up being much worse than its bite on Cancun & Cozumel, as strong wind shear ripped convection away from the circulation. Strengthened from a tropical depression to a hurricane in just 21 hours, one of the fastest such rates on record.

Hurricane Philippe

Dates of activity: Sep. 24 - Oct. 8
Peak strength: 90 mph (Cat. 1); 976 mb
Landfall: None
Summary: Philippe fought wind shear, including that produced from the outflow of Hurricane Ophelia, during the first 7-10 days of its life in the central Atlantic. Twelve days after being first designated a depression, Philippe finally became a hurricane on Oct. 6., then finally merged with a front in the north Atlantic.

Hurricane Ophelia

Dates of activity: September 20 - 25, 27 - October 3
Peak strength: 140 mph (Category 4); 940 mb
Landfall: Lost tropical characteristics while passing over Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula.
Summary: Ophelia struggled with wind shear, degenerating into a remnant low east of the Lesser Antilles Sep. 25. Two days later, Ophelia made a comeback, intensifying into a Category 4 hurricane on Oct. 1, before weakening after tracking east of Bermuda. Ophelia produced tropical storm-force gusts on Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula.

Hurricane Nate

Dates of activity: September 7 - 11
Peak strength: 75 mph (Category 1); 994 mb
Landfall: Near Barra de Nautla, MX
Summary: Dry, stable air limited the development of Nate. Two of Mexico's primary oil ports were shuttered for a time, and there were reports of 10 oil rig employees missing. Three died, according to Reuters. This was the 4th tropical cyclone to affect this part of Mexico in the last two seasons (Arlene & Harvey in 2011, Hurricane Karl in 2010).

Hurricane Maria

Dates of activity: September 6 - 16
Peak strength: 80 mph; 979 mb
Landfall: Near Cape Pine, Newfoundland (Sep. 16, 2011; 2:30pm ET)
Summary: Maria produced heavy rain, flash flooding and landslides on Puerto Rico. Tropical storm-force winds and rain squalls lashed parts of Bermuda. Maria clipped the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, producing wind gusts to 64 mph at St. John's, Newfoundland.

Tropical Storm Lee

Dates of activity: September 1 - 4
Peak strength: 60 mph; 986 mb
Landfall: Pecan Island, La. (Sep. 4, 2011; 4am CT)
Summary: Developed over the central Gulf of Mexico as a lopsided area of low pressure with heavy rain on its eastern flank. Dumped over 10" of rain in New Orleans, Mobile, and Jackson, Miss. Floodwaters entered homes in the Jackson, Miss. metro area on Sep. 5. Surge flooding outside levee protection areas of southeast Louisiana.
Photos: Lee's flooding images

Hurricane Katia

Dates of activity: August 29 - September 10
Peak strength: 135 mph; 946 mb
Landfall: None
Summary: "Cape Verde" storm spent almost two weeks as a tropical cyclone. Tracked well north of the Antilles, but tracked both well west of Bermuda and well east of the U.S. coast. One death along the Fla. coast due to rip currents generated by swells from Katia.

Tropical Storm Jose

Dates of activity: August 28 - 29
Peak strength: 45 mph; 1007 mb
Landfall: None
Summary: Born from a tropical wave that emerged from west Africa August 17. Did not develop into a named storm until the morning of Irene's landfalls in the Northeast. Only lasted as a tropical cyclone 27 hours, continuing a theme from earlier in the 2011 season.

Hurricane Irene

Dates of activity: August 20 - 28
Peak strength: 120 mph (Category 3); 942 mb
Landfalls: Punta Santiago, P.R., Cape Lookout, N.C., Little Egg Inlet, N.J. (1st hurricane landfall in N.J. since 1903), New York City
Summary: Daily image diary | Stunning photos
Storm "scrapbooks": Carolinas/Va. | Mid-Atlantic/Northeast | Conn. | Catskills | Vermont

Tropical Storm Harvey

Dates of activity: August 18 - 22
Peak strength: 60 mph; 994 mb
Landfall(s): Dangriga Town, Belize (Around 2pm ET Aug. 20); Just south of Veracruz, Mexico (Around 2am ET Aug. 22)
Summary: Heavy rainbands hit Roatan Islands off north coast of Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico. An iWitnessWeather reporter caught this waterspout coming ashore in Belize during Harvey.

Tropical Storm Gert

Dates of activity: August 13 - 16
Peak strength: 60 mph; 1000 mb
Landfall: None
Summary: Formed as a tropical depression southeast of Bermuda late on August 13. Moved north-northeast, remaining about 135 miles east of Bermuda at its closest pass on August 15.

Tropical Storm Franklin

Dates of activity: August 12 - 13
Peak strength: 45 mph; 1004 mb
Landfall: None
Summary: Formed as a tropical depression north of Bermuda, then strengthened to T.S. Franklin 12 hours later, before gaining enough latitude to fall victim to increasing vertical wind shear and colder waters of the North Atlantic late on the 13th.

Tropical Storm Emily

Dates of activity: August 1-4, 6-7
Peak strength: 50 mph; 1003 mb
Landfall: None
Impacts: Widespread flash flooding, and one landslide on Martinique. Flooding of at least 3 rivers in Puerto Rico. Some roads impassable by landslides. Homes flooded in city of Ceiba, P.R. Over 5" rain in Barahona, D.R., prompting evacuation of 5,000. 3 dead in D.R., 1 killed in Haiti from flooding.

Tropical Storm Don

Dates of activity: July 27 - July 29
Peak strength: 50 mph; 998 mb
Landfall: Near Baffin Bay, TX (as a tropical depression)
Impacts: Most rainfall virtually dissipated upon landfall. Only a .02" of rain fell in Corpus Christi, Texas. Patchy 1/2"+ amounts in S. Texas.

Tropical Storm Cindy

Dates of activity: July 20 - July 22
Peak strength: 60 mph; 1000 mb
Landfall: None
Impacts: Cindy developed several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda over the open waters of the Atlantic. The storm never made landfall. Hostile wind shear took its toll on the fledgling storm.

Tropical Storm Bret

Dates of activity: July 17 - July 22
Peak strength: 65 mph; 996 mb
Landfall: None
Impacts: Bret formed off the southeast U.S. Coast, remaining over open waters. Areas of rain soaked parts of the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. Rough surf along Fla. East Coast lead to some injuries.

Tropical Storm Arlene

Dates of activity: June 28 - June 30
Peak strength: 65 mph; 993 mb
Landfall: Near Cabo Rojo, Mexico June 30.
Impacts: Unofficially 22 killed in Mexico. Power outages affected up to 285,000. Evacuations required due to flooding and landslides. Parts of drought-plagued S. Texas picked up over 3" of rain.

End of 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is near

2011-11-24T09:20:00.001-06:00

Nov 19, 2011 4:13 pm ET

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is just about complete.

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season produced 18 named storms, as of mid-November, well above the average number of 10 named storms. The most glaring statistic - and perhaps most notable - is the fact that out of those 18 named storms only 6 went on to become hurricanes - that is close to average and well below the number of hurricanes from last year (12).

2011 will likely be remembered for the disastrous inland flooding unleashed by Hurricane Irene and the swirling and stubborn remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Lee. Although damage was inflicted upon various coastal communities including the Outer Banks, it's what happened AFTER landfall that proved to be the most destructive and costly.

For so much more information on the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, please visit our "State of the Season" page where you'll find a storm-by-storm breakdown.

Our tropical expert, Dr. Rick Knabb, will produce a full-season recap on November 30. Follow Dr. Knabb on Twitter and Facebook during the Atlantic hurricane off-season. He'll continue to provide updates on tropical activity across the globe and prepare you for next season.

On June 1, 2012, our daily tropical updates will return.

Hurricane Kenneth - Now a Catagory 4

2011-11-22T18:19:00.001-06:00

Now a full fledged hurricane, Kenneth is located in the north Pacific Ocean heading West, further out in the Pacific. It has evolved into a Catagory 4 hurricane. At this point it is not threatening any land and it is not expected to in the near future. Its present location is the least threatening to any land mass at this time. It is presently located at latitude +12.6, longitude -114.9. At the present time, this is the only tropical storm on the globe.

Death toll from Thailand's floods tops 600

2011-11-20T23:38:00.001-06:00

THE death toll from Thailand's worst flooding in more than half a century has passed 600.

The floods began in late July, fed by heavy monsoon rains and a series of tropical storms.

The floodwaters swamped entire towns as they moved south through the country's central heartland to Bangkok and the Gulf of Thailand.

More than two-thirds of the country's 77 provinces have been flooded during the four-month-long crisis.

The Government said on Sunday that the death toll has reached 602, the majority from drowning.

The situation has improved dramatically in recent days and clean-up has begun in many areas, though some still face weeks more under water. The Government said 17 provinces remained flooded on Sunday.

Southeast Asian Weather - Local Forecasts, Recommended Clothing

2011-11-20T23:11:00.001-06:00

Weather conditions in Southeast Asia, country by country: find out about local seasons, best times to visit, recommended clothing, and up-to-the-minute weather reports in major Southeast Asian destinations.

Early Warnings for Weather in Southeast Asia

A list of ongoing disaster warnings in southeast Asia, in handy bullet form

Weather in Cambodia

Cambodia possesses a tropical monsoon climate. Annual temperatures may average between 70 to 95ºF (21 to 35ºC), sometimes topping off at 105ºF (40ºC) in April. Read the full article to see more details on Cambodia’s weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions in Phnom Penh and Siem Reap.

Southeast Asia Weather MapYou can find it on Yahoo! More on Southeast Asia Weather Mapwww.yahoo.com

Weather In AsiaGet Weather In Asia Search for Weather In Asiawww.ask.com

Weather in Indonesia

Indonesia has a tropical climate, with generally cooler temperatures inland and at higher elevations compared to the coastline and lowlands. Read the full article to see more details on Indonesia’s weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions in Jakarta, Medan, Makassar, and Bali.

Weather in Laos

The cool, dry season between November to February is the best time to visit Laos, with temperatures averaging 62-84°F (17-29°C). Read the full article to see more details on Laos' weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions in Vientiane, Luang Prabang, Pakse, and Savannakhet.

Weather in Malaysia

Malaysia has a tropical climate, with very warm days and fairly cool nights. In Kuala Lumpur, average daytime temperature year-round is 82°F (27°C). Read the full article to see more details on Malaysia’s weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions in cities throughout Malaysia, including Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Kota Kinabalu, and Cameron Highlands.

Weather in the Philippines

The Philippines has a tropical climate with three distinct seasons. Average temperature in the country can range from 78-90°F (25-32°C), with humidity around 77 percent. Read the full article to see more details on the Philippines’ weather conditions. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather in cities like Manila, Baguio, Davao, and Cebu.

Weather in Thailand

Due to its location near the equator, Thailand’s tropical climate can run quite hot with temperatures hovering between 82-95°F (28-35°C), especially between March and May. Read the full article to see more details on Thailand’s weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions in tourist destinations like Phuket, Bangkok, and Chiang Mai.

Weather in Singapore

Singapore’s weather is uniformly warm and humid, experiencing year-round showers. Average daytime temperature is approximately 86ºF (30ºC), falling to 74ºF (23ºC) in the evening. Read the full article to see more details on Singapore’s weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions.

Weather in Vietnam

Due to its unique geography, Vietnam has a climate with wide variation from north to south, delineated into two distinct climatic zones. Read the full article to see more details on Vietnam’s weather. Includes information on recommended clothing and links to local weather conditions in Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Hanoi.

Rare late-season tropical storm in Pacific

2011-11-20T23:07:00.001-06:00

MIAMI — Tropical Storm Kenneth is strengthening in the eastern Pacific Ocean, with forecasters calling it a rare late-season tropical storm.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday that Kenneth had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (85 kph). The storm was centered about 505 miles (810 kilometers) south of Manzanillo, Mexico, but was moving away from the coast.
Projections show Kenneth moving west out to sea, away from land, over the next several days.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Thousands of tourists flee Mexican holiday resorts as locals board up homes ahead of Tropical Storm Rina's approach along coast

2011-10-27T21:53:00.003-05:00

Officials move 2,300 people from Holbox and tourists evacuate Cancun
NASA cuts short undersea laboratory mission near Key Largo, Florida
Rina downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm off Mexico coast

By MARK DUELL

Last updated at 10:39 PM on 27th October 2011

Thousands of tourists are today fleeing Mexico's holiday resorts as hundreds of residents follow them away from low-lying areas ahead of Tropical Storm Rina’s approach up the Caribbean coast.

Civil protection officials moved some 2,300 people from Holbox, an island where the Caribbean meets the Gulf of Mexico, and the government closed the archaeological sites that dot the coast.

Lines snaked from ticket counters in Cancun's crowded airport on Wednesday as airliners heading to Canada and Europe waited in the rain. But the hurricane was today downgraded to a tropical storm.

Storm coming: A tourist walks past palm trees swaying in winds caused by the proximity
of the Rina hurricane off the coast of Quintana Roo in Cancun's hotel zone

Big waves: A tourist carries her surfing board while a storm approaches in Cancun,
Quintana Roo state, Mexico, as it churned toward Cancun and other international
tourist resorts

Going back: Passengers wait to check in at Cancun international airport, as they
prepare to return home before the arrival of Tropical Storm Rina, in Cancun,
Quintana Roo state, Mexico

Many travellers said they were already scheduled to leave on Wednesday. But Janet Gallo, 41, of New York City, decided to cut short her five-day trip to the town of Playa del Carmen.

‘At the hotel, they told us they would make a decision whether to evacuate later today, but we didn't want to wait,' she said. 'We would rather be home when it hits.'

More...

Aquanauts evacuated! Nasa forced to halt underwater mission to simulate asteroid landing as Hurricane Rina approaches

Space agency NASA cut short an undersea laboratory mission near Key Largo, Florida, bringing the crew back to land.

Ports closed to navigation for recreational, fishing and small boats in the state of Quintana Roo, home to Cancun, and neighbouring Yucatan state.

The island of Cozumel was closed to larger vessels, including the ferry that connects the island and Playa del Carmen.

Ominous: A couple stand next to a boat in Playa del Carmen beach, Quintana Roo
State, Mexico, as they prepare for the approach of Tropical Storm Rina

Windy day: A tourist walks among palm trees on a beach in Playa del Carmen on
Thursday

Deserted: Beach beds are tied up on the beach at a hotel for safekeeping in Playa del
Carmen on Thursday

Rina was forecast to remain a hurricane as it swept along Mexico's most popular tourist destinations of Cancun, Cozumel and the Riviera Maya. But it was downgraded to a tropical storm on Thursday.

Rina's maximum sustained winds were near 75mph early on Thursday, down from 110mph on Wednesday. It was about 115 miles south of the island of Cozumel, moving northwest at 6mph.

'At the hotel, they told us they would make a decision whether to evacuate later today, but we didn't want to wait. We would rather be home when it hits'

Janet Gallo, Cancun tourist

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Rina's maximum sustained winds were down to 70mph by Thursday lunchtime.

About 275 people living in the fishing town of Punta Allen, south of Tulum, were moved to emergency shelters and a smaller group was evacuated from the atoll of Banco Chinchorro.

Luh McDevitt, 56, originally of Cincinnati, Ohio - but now a furniture and interior designer in Cozumel - said her family was fitting hurricane shutters to the house and securing furniture.

‘I am not really scared. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was a Category 5. The worst part of the hurricane is after. We didn't have electricity in our house for three weeks.’

From above: This satellite image taken on Thursday shows Hurricane Rina near the
east coast of Mexico, before it was downgraded to a Tropical Storm

Boarded up: Workers cover the windows of a building in preparation for the arrival of
Tropical Storm Rina, in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo state, Mexico

Still there: Tourists walk past sandbags used to protect against erosion at a beach in
Playa del Carmen

Protection: Tourists walk past workers boarding up store windows ahead of Tropical
Storm Rina in Cancun

Mexico's government said it was sending nearly 2,400 electrical workers plus cranes, vehicles and generators to repair and maintain services as quickly as possible after the storm.

'I am not really scared. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was a Category 5. The worst part of the hurricane is after. We didn't have electricity in our house for three weeks'

Luh McDevitt, Cozumel resident

Jorge Arturo Cruz, spokesman for Quintana Roo's education department, said schools were ordered to be closed in communities along the coast and on Cozumel in anticipation of the storm.

The coastal area around Tulum is dotted with Mayan ruins and farther north is Playa del Carmen, another popular spot for international tourists and the departure point for ferries serving Cozumel.

State officials said there had been about 83,000 tourists there, with about 28,000 in Cancun and 45,000 more on the stretch of coast south of Cancun that includes Tulum and Playa de Carmen.

State Tourism Director Juan Carlos Gonzalez Hernandez estimated 10,000 tourists had left by Wednesday night. There were only about 1,719 tourists on Cozumel, and many of them had left.

Having fun: A boy feeds seagulls on a beach in Playa del Carmen on Thursday ahead
of the storm's approach

Good time: A man throws his son in the air, at a beach in Playa del Carmen on
Thursday

Sprint: A woman runs in Playa del Carmen beach, Quintana Roo State, Mexico,
earlier this week

Graphic: This map shows the possible path of Rina up the side of Mexican on its
Caribbean coast

At least eight cruise ships were changing itineraries away from the storm's path, said a Carnival Cruise Lines spokesman.

'There is great uncertainty as to where Rina will be located by the weekend'

U.S. National Hurricane Center

The area was badly damaged by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, when Cancun's white-sand beaches were largely washed away. Insurance officials estimated total damage at $3billion.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun.

The projected track showed Rina curving east toward Cuba and the Straits of Florida after crossing the eastern tip of Yucatan.

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center cautioned: ‘There is great uncertainty as to where Rina will be located by the weekend.’

Hurricane Definitions

2011-10-27T21:51:00.001-05:00

What's the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning? What separates a tropical depression from a tropical storm? During a hurricane season, understanding the ins and out of basic weather jargon could help you stay safe.

El Nino
The non-cyclical warming of East Pacific Ocean temperatures off the western coast of South America (extending into the central Pacific) that can result in significant changes in weather patterns in the United States and globally. Years with a strong El Nino tend to be linked to a below-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin.

Extratropical
A term used in advisories and tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its "tropical" characteristics. It is important to note that cyclones can become extratropical and still retain winds of hurricane or tropical storm strength.

Eye
The center of a hurricane (and occasionally a strong tropical storm), characterized by a roughly circular area of light winds, no rain, and sometimes cloud-free skies. An eye will usually develop when the maximum sustained wind speeds exceed about 75 mph. The eye can range in size from as small as
4 miles up to 60 miles or more, but the average size is about
20 miles.

Eyewall
An organized band of deep showers and, at times, thunderstorms surrounding the eye, or center, of a tropical cyclone. Intense rainfall and typically the strongest winds are found within the eyewall.

Hurricane
The name for a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, eastern and central North Pacific Ocean. Hurricanes are known as "typhoons" in the western Pacific and "tropical cyclones" in the remainder of the world.

Hurricane Season
The time of year when tropical cyclone formation is most likely. In the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30. The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Hurricanes can -- and do -- form before and after the "official hurricane season." Typhoons occur in every month of the year -- more frequently than in the Atlantic basin -- but are most common in summer and fall.

Hurricane Warning
Hurricane conditions are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.

Hurricane Watch
Hurricane conditions are possible in a specified coastal area within 36 hours.

Landfall
The place that the center of circulation -- the center of the eye, if there is one -- crosses land. It's important to note that impacts like rain, wind and surge can precede landfall and can extend far away from the precise point of landfall.

Rain Band
An elongated area of showers and/or thunderstorms often in the form of spiral bands extending away from the core of a tropical cyclone. The bands can span less than 50 miles to hundreds of miles and often persist for more than 12 hours. Rain band widths are usually less than 75 miles wide and, at times, can be less than 20 miles wide. Many individual cloud elements comprise a rain band; sometimes hundreds of individual clouds are associated with a single very long rain band. These individual raining clouds can sequentially move over roughly the same area resulting in severe flooding. Interestingly, some tropical cyclones have well-defined or even extreme rain bands while others appear to have very few rain bands associated with them.

Saffir-Simpson Scale
Developed in the early 1970s by Herbert Saffir, a consulting engineer, and Robert Simpson, then Director of the National Hurricane Center, it is a measure of hurricane intensity on a scale of 1 to 5. The scale categorizes potential wind damage.

Wind Shear
A change in wind speed and/or wind direction vertically or horizontally. Directional (speed) shear is a change in wind direction (wind speed).

Surge
The increase in sea water height (above the level that would normally occur if there was no storm/hurricane) due to onshore winds. Although the most dramatic surges are associated with hurricanes, weaker low pressure systems can cause surge. Surge is estimated by subtracting the normal astronomic tide from the observed tide.

Tropical Cyclone
A warm-core low pressure system which develops over tropical, and sometimes subtropical, waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending on its sustained surface winds, the system is classified as a tropical disturbance, a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a hurricane or typhoon.

Tropical Depression
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface winds are 38 mph or less. It may form slowly from a tropical disturbance oar from a tropical wave.

Tropical Disturbance
An area of organized convection, originating in the tropics and occasionally the subtropics, that maintains its identity for 24 hours or more. It is often the first developmental stage of any subsequent tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane.

Tropical Storm
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface winds are 39 mph to 73 mph. Upon gaining tropical storm intensity, the system is given a name to identify and track it.

Tropical Storm Warning
Tropical storm conditions are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch
Tropical storm conditions are possible in a specified coastal area generally within 36 hours.

Tropical Wave
A name for an easterly wave or other generally westward moving disturbance; it has an area of relatively low pressure most typically embedded in the trade wind easterlies. Generally, it is associated with cloudiness, showers, and windy weather. It can be a precursor to tropical cyclone development.

Typhoon
The name for a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 74 mph or greater in the western North Pacific Ocean. This same
tropical "cyclone" is known as a "hurricane" in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean, and as a "cyclone" in the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes of 2011

2011-10-27T21:39:00.002-05:00

The following are the tropical storms and Hurricanes so far from both the Atlantic and Pacific regions. The Storms listed in blue have already expired. The storm in red is presently active. The storms in grey are the next storms to be named when they are formed.
ATLANTIC STORMS
Tropical Storm Arlene
Tropical Storm Bret
Tropical Storm Cindy
Tropical Storm Don
Tropical Storm Emily
Tropical Storm Franklin
Tropical Storm Gert
Tropical Storm Harvey
Hurricane Irene
Tropical Storm Jose
Hurricane Katia
Tropical Storm Lee
Hurricane Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
Hurricane Philippe
Hurricane Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

PACIFIC HURRICANES

Hurricane Rina takes aim at Cancun

2011-10-26T04:51:00.000-05:00

Authorities evacuated fishing communities on Mexico's resort-studded Caribbean coast and some tourists began to leave, as Hurricane Rina took aim at Cancun and the island of Cozumel on Wednesday.

Hundreds of residents from the fishing town of Punta Allen, south of Tulum, were taken to emergency shelters and a smaller group was evacuated from the low-lying hamlet of Banco Chinchorro Tuesday, and cruise ships shifted their routes in the face of expected storm surges, waves and heavy rains from Rina.

Rina's maximum sustained winds remained steady at about 175 km/h, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, making it a Category 2 storm. Forecasters predict it will strengthen as it nears the Mexican coast Wednesday night before rolling over the island of Cozumel, a popular dive spot and cruise-ship port, then along the coast to Cancun.

Soldiers, marines and state police arrived with vehicles in Punta Allen on Tuesday to evacuate about 275 residents and take them to a storm shelter at a middle school; about 500 people are expected to be evacuated there in total, according to Quintana Roo state Civil Defence Director Luis Carlos Rodriguez.

The coastal area around Tulum is dotted with Mayan ruins, and further north is Playa del Carmen, another popular spot for international tourists and the departure point for ferries serving Cozumel.

State Tourism Director Juan Carlos Gonzalez Hernandez said there were about 83,000 tourists in the state, with about 45,000 of those on a stretch of coast south of Cancun that includes Tulum and Playa de Carmen, and almost 28,000 in Cancun.

There were only about 1,719 tourists in Cozumel, and many of them were leaving, Gonzalez Hernandez said.

"In the case of Cozumel, which could be hit hardest, people are leaving of their own accord and are cutting their reservations short," said Gonzalez Hernandez.

But some were planning to ride out Rina.

Douglas Baird, 40, of Glasgow, Scotland, said he had been in Playa del Carmen for 11 days on a tour with 10 other people. He plans to stay for the five remaining days of his vacation.

"I'll go to the bar," he said about his plans for waiting out his first hurricane. "It won't be a problem."

But Wendy Powers, a 49-year-old from Louisiana who was taking a stroll at a shopping mall with two other friends, said she hadn't heard anything about the storm until a reporter told her about it. Still, she said she wasn't worried.

"We had Katrina and we survived it," Powers said. "If the one coming here is a category 1 or 2, we could have a beach party."

In Cancun's hotel zone, a string of pickup trucks hauled small boats and jet skis away from marinas, while workers at shopping malls began boarding up windows.

At least eight cruise ships were changing itineraries away from the storm's path, said Carnival Cruise Lines spokesman Vance Gulliksen.

Three cruise ships from the company Norwegian Cruise Line and one from Royal Caribbean have cancelled their Friday port of call in the area, said Hiram Toledo, Quintana Roo port administrator.

The area was badly damaged by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, when Cancun's famous white-sand beaches were largely washed away.

A tourist walks past palm trees swaying in winds caused by the proximity of Hurricane Rina hurricane off the coast of Quintana Roo in Cancun on Tuesday. Victor Ruiz Garcia/Reuters

Insurance officials estimated total damage at $3 billion US.

State officials said they were readying more than 1,100 shelters that could handle nearly 200,000 people, though so far there was no word of any planned evacuations.

The hurricane was centred about 405 kilometres southeast of Cozumel Tuesday night and was moving west at near 6 km/h, the Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters said Rina was likely to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of about 185 km/h by Wednesday.

The forecast track shows it curving east toward Cuba by the weekend, but senior hurricane specialist Michael Brennan at the hurricane centre said it could also move toward southern Florida.

Hurricane Rina could strengthen before landfall

2011-10-26T04:43:00.001-05:00

(CNN) -- Rina was on the verge of becoming a Category 3 hurricane as it careened near Honduras and Belize on Wednesday before heading toward Cancun.

The storm was packing near 110 mph winds early Wednesday morning and moving at 5 mph, according to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. That is 1 mph away from a Category 3 hurricane.

Forecast models show Rina strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane before approaching the Yucatan. The projected path shows Rina back at Category 2 intensity when it takes aim at Cancun on Thursday.

Residents and worried travelers in Cancun stocked up on supplies Tuesday to prepare for the storm to hit the popular Mexican resort city.

Carla Bautista bought bread, water and canned tuna.

"It's my first hurricane. This is new. ... I'm a little afraid, because I don't know what to expect," said Bautista, 28, who moved to Cancun two months ago from Mexico City.

Mexican officials issued a hurricane warning for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun as the Category 2 storm strengthened. Similarly, U.S. officials issued a travel alert, advising U.S. citizens in the area to prepare themselves for the possibility of a hurricane.

Some tourists decided not to take any chances.

"We wanted to get out of there. ... We were on vacation and just didn't want to be stressed," said Kathy Davis, 57, an American with a timeshare in Cancun.

She said she and her husband celebrated their 25th wedding anniversary at the airport while waiting to catch a flight.

In Cancun's hotel area, crews were securing boats and clearing palm fronds and debris.

Kelly McLaughlin moved her 6-year-old son's toys inside and trimmed tree branches around her home.

"I'm just checking everything to make sure there's nothing loose," said McLaughlin, a Canadian who's lived in Cancun for eight years.

McLaughlin, 40, said preparing for storms has become routine since Hurricane Wilma devastated the area in 2005.

"My friends that are fairly new to Cancun are a lot more nervous and starting to get a little stressed," she said. "I'm just trying to keep everyone calm."

Lines at supermarkets and gas stations were long, residents said.

As of 5 a.m. ET Wednesday, the center of Rina was about 215 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. It was moving west at 3 mph, but was expected to gradually turn northwest and speed up over the next two days, forecasters said.

27 missing in Nicaragua as Rina strengthens to a hurricane

2011-10-25T00:53:00.002-05:00

Rina is the sixth hurricane of the season and is drifting northwestward in the Northwest Caribbean. The high to our north will be re-enforced by another front later in the week. Thus the only real concern for the U.S. is for The Keys .Through the week we will warm up until the next front brings in cooler winds out of Georgia Friday through the weekend.

Miami (CNN) -- Rina strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane off the coast of Central America on Monday, as officials in Nicaragua searched for more than two dozen missing storm evacuees.

A navy boat ferrying people between the Miskito Cays and Puerto Cabezas, on the eastern coast, was reported missing on Sunday, according to Vice Adm. Roger Gonzalez of the Nicaraguan navy. Twenty-seven people were on board, he said.

Forecasters warn that the storm will strengthen further before making landfall later this week.

Readings from a reconnaissance aircraft showed the storm had 75 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. As of 5 p.m. ET, Rina was centered about 195 miles southwest of Grand Cayman island and 355 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico.

The storm was moving west-northwest at 3 mph, the forecast center said, and could strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane in the next 48 hours.

Earlier Monday, forecasters said Rina's projected path had shifted course, menacing Mexico with the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm is expected to dump between 2-4 inches of rain over the Cayman Islands.

Rina could make landfall this week in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula -- home to Cancun and many of Mexico's top tourist spots.

"It is too early to speculate what, if any effects Rina will have on the U.S., but after the storm makes landfall in the Yucatan, the combination of land interaction and high shear that is forecast into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken Rina as it begins to turn towards the northeast towards Cuba, or perhaps South Florida or the Bahamas," said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen.

Flood-soaked Central America also braced for more rain Monday as Rina lumbered toward land.

In Nicaragua and Honduras, where flooding and mudslides have affected thousands and killed dozens of people, authorities issued alerts warning residents that more precipitation could be on the way.

October marks the end of the rainy season in the region and is when the area is most susceptible to flooding because the ground is already saturated, CNN International weather anchor Mari Ramos said.

Heavy rains have hit Honduras for several weeks, killing at least 29 people, according to government statistics.

In Guatemala, 39 people have been killed and thousands remain at risk, the state-run AGN news agency reported.

Civil protection officials in El Salvador reported 34 rain-related deaths. And Nicaragua has reported at least 12 deaths.

Jova Unloading Torrential Rain; New Depression Forms

2011-10-12T17:38:00.000-05:00

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Oct 12, 2011; 8:25 AM ET

Share|

In this infrared satellite image from earlier this morning, Jova (on the left) can be seen pushing farther into western Mexico. Meanwhile, a new tropical depression has formed out of the cluster of clouds on the right.

Jova is now onshore and weakening, but remains a serious danger to lives in Mexico. Meanwhile, a new tropical depression has formed and poses new threats to Mexico.

Jova moved onshore around 11 p.m. Tuesday (PDT, 2 a.m. EDT Wednesday) near the town of Chamela in the Mexican state of Jalisco.

Jova was a Category 2 hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum sustained winds of nearly 100 mph.

The rugged terrain of western Mexico will continue to unwind Jova's circulation. Jova was downgraded to a tropical rainstorm as of the afternoon Wednesday local time.

Jova being captured on webcams:Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta.

Despite weakening, Jova should not be taken lightly through the end of the week.

Torrential rain will continue to pour down on the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and western Michoacan, producing totals of 6 to 12 inches with localized amounts of 20 inches in the higher terrain.

As of the mid-afternoon, 13.67 inches of rain has fallen on the city of Colima with 12.20 inches of rain falling in 24-hours on Manzanillo.

Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides remain serious concerns.

Damaging winds will continue to lash western Mexico today before Jova loses its tropical storm status.

The worst of Jova, in terms of its destructive hurricane-force winds, narrowly bypassed the popular tourist cities of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo.

The waters along the entire southern coast of Mexico (including at the beaches of Acapulco) will remain rough and dangerous for swimmers and operators of small craft during the next few days.

Even though Jova has moved inland, Tropical Storm Irwin is following in its footsteps and another tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (offshore of southeastern Mexico).

The good news is that Irwin will not be a repeat of Jova. Irwin is not expected to regain hurricane strength and could completely fizzle before nearing land.

AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Bill Deger pointed out that the path Jova took and the one Irwin may take are highly unusual.

"The bulk of the hurricanes in [the eastern Pacific] either parallel the coast or head out to sea."

The depression in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is actually the next danger to residents of Mexico.

The depression should strengthen into Tropical Storm Kenneth before moving into southeastern Mexico within the next day, unleashing flooding rain in the process.

According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Repeating downpours from central and southern Mexico into Central America over the next 7 to 14 days can lead to an additional couple of feet of rain and flash flooding."

Kottlowski is referring to the current tropical system in the region and weak additional features that can form nearby in the coming days.

Hurricane Jova - Enters Mexico with 75MPH winds

2011-10-12T07:41:00.002-05:00

Manzanillo, Mexico (CNN) -- Heavy rain remained a "major threat" as Hurricane Jova quickly lost steam after making landfall along Mexico's Pacific coast overnight, the National Hurricane Center said.
Jova -- now a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds -- is expected to lose much of its punch over western Mexico as the day goes on and become a tropical storm, the center said.
The storm was about 30 miles south of the resort town of Puerto Vallarta at 8 a.m. ET. It was moving north at 9 mph.
"Jova is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over the states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches," according to the Hurricane Center said in Miami.
"These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over steep terrain."
Rain was falling in Manzanillo Tuesday ahead of the storm as hotel workers boarded up windows and people filled bags with sand from the beach.
The city's mayor said 36 shelters were open and that authorities built barricades to prevent flooding in areas that typically have problems.
"As for tourists, we told them that unless they have pressing matters in town, they should leave," said Mayor Nabor Ochoa.
About 30 elderly residents were moved from their home to an area shelter ahead of the storm.
"It's not the humans I trust," said 69-year-old Cecilia Sanchez about the preparations being made. "But a God who hears my prayers."
At the shelter where she is staying, the local director of civil protection said officials can't afford to board up windows.
"We know that in the United States they protect (windows) with plywood. We haven't been able to do it here because we don¹t have the resources to do so," said David Sanchez.
"Our main concern is the welfare of the population," Trinidad Lopez, civil protection director in Jalisco state said on Monday. "We're doing everything in our power to protect people."
At least 100 shelters were open, Lopez said. Workers distributed food, cots and blankets, and crews positioned heavy machinery in strategic locations throughout the state, he added.
Mexico's federal government was providing assistance as well. More than 300 soldiers had been deployed and members of the Mexican navy in Puerto Vallarta were on alert, Lopez said.

Philippines Recover after Nesat, Brace for Nalgae

2011-09-28T23:56:00.000-05:00

Updated: September 28, 2011 11:00 am ET

MANILA, Philippines (AP) - Forecasters sounded alarms over a new storm headed for the Philippines Wednesday, even as workers repaired seawalls demolished by a typhoon that killed at least 21 people and left scores stranded in swamped communities.

Typhoon Nesat also left 35 people missing and brought some of downtown Manila's worst flooding in decades before blowing out of the northern Philippines early Wednesday toward southern China with winds of 75 mph (120 kph).

Floodwaters were receding in most places, but many low-lying communities in the north remained in crisis.

Mayor Santiago Austria of the rice-farming town of Jaen in Nueva Ecija province appealed to the government for help, saying many people in his community of 63,000 needed to be rescued but that officials there had only four rescue boats.

"Many people here are still on top of their houses. We don't have enough boats to reach them and hand them food," Austria said.

View: Nesat Photos and Related Imagery

Nalgae is Next in Line

On the heels of Nesat, Typhoon Nalgae aims for the northern Philippines.

Civil Defense Office chief Benito Ramos said army troops were on their way to assist Jaen.

The town of Obando, north of Manila, remained under waist-high water and officials had not yet been able to check on reports of houses swept away on two nearby islands where thousands of residents live, Mayor Orencio Gabriel said.

In all, 320,000 people were affected by the storm, with 73,000 in evacuation centers and about 100 still stranded, officials said.

Meanwhile, a fresh tropical storm was brewing in the Pacific, government forecaster Bobby Javier said, adding that it already had sustained winds of 52 mph (85 kph) and gusts up to 62 mph (100 kph) and was expected to strengthen significantly before hitting major parts of the country in the next few days.

Ramos said disaster agencies were being kept on full alert because of the new storm.

In Manila, hundreds of workers used cranes to lay sandbags where parts of a downtown seawall were ripped off by the typhoon's huge waves and fierce winds. Residents made repairs to nearly 5,000 houses damaged in the storm.

Scavengers rummaged through household items carried by the floodwaters — footwear, a basketball, a child's school bag, a hunter's hat. Mar Depas, 28, said he collected about a dozen fairly new leather shoes and sandals but was disappointed that they didn't match.

"I can't find their pairs. They're useless," Depas said. "I came late ... most of the better recyclable stuff is gone."

Typhoon Nesat had unleashed torrents of floodwaters Tuesday that swamped Manila's downtown areas, rapidly engulfing hotels, a hospital, the U.S. Embassy, business offices and several blocks of residential areas in waist-deep floodwaters.

Power was gradually restored Wednesday to Manila's downtown area, which strewn with trash and fallen bamboo pieces washed ashore by storm surges. City trains resumed operations.

Associated Press writer Oliver Teves contributed to this report.

Current Satellite Imagery

Latest enhanced satellite imagery loops (first 2 links below), as well as a clickable, zoomable Bing map (last link).

> See enhanced satellite loop
> Wider view (enhanced satellite loop)
> Interactive Satellite Map

City Forecasts

Current conditions and the latest forecast for selected east Asia major cities.

> Manila, Philippines
> Hong Kong
> Hanoi, Vietnam

You can get a full briefing on the tropics in our Tropical Update video, our exclusive Tropics Watch graphics page or our Tropical Update news article.

Watch The Weather Channel for the latest on this system and other areas we're monitoring.

Philippines swamped by typhoon floods

2011-09-28T04:12:00.001-05:00

Manila --

Emergency services and residents in the Philippine capital cleaned up and restored electricity today after a powerful typhoon unleashed floodwaters that killed at least 20 people and sent huge waves crashing over seawalls.
Most deaths occurred in and around metropolitan Manila, which already was soaked by heavy monsoon rains ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Nesat, which brought more downpours and wind gusts of up to 93 miles per hour.
The typhoon blew out of the Philippines today, packing winds of 75 mph and was expected to make landfall on China's Hainan Island on Thursday evening or early Friday.
The Philippine disaster agency said 35 people were unaccounted for and that 108 had been rescued.
Power supply was gradually restored to the downtown area, which was strewn with trash and fallen bamboo pieces washed ashore by storm surges. The Metro Rail Transit also resumed operations.
Some areas were still flooded, including Manila Ocean Park facing Manila Bay and a major thoroughfare, Taft Avenue. The nearby U.S. Embassy, which was inundated Tuesday, remained closed.
Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim said huge waves as high as coconut trees breached a 65-foot-long seawall astride a popular promenade, allowing seawater from Manila Bay to rapidly engulf hotels, a hospital, business offices and several blocks of residential areas in waist-deep floodwaters.
"This is the first time that this kind of flooding happened here," said Lim, who began his career in Manila as a tough-talking police officer decades ago.
Strong winds toppled about 40 huge trees around the capital's tourist district and 3,500 people were moved from shantytowns into three school buildings, where they spent the night huddled amid continuing rains.
Emergency repair crews were clearing roads of trees, debris and stalled cars as schools and offices reopened today.
The flooding came a day after this sprawling, coastal city of 12 million held two-year commemorations for the nearly 500 people killed during a 2009 cyclone, which dumped a month's rainfall in just 12 hours. The geography of the archipelago makes it the site of about 20 storms and typhoons from the Pacific each year.
Some residents acted more quickly this time to evacuate homes as waters rose, including in the Manila suburb of Marikina, where 2,000 people escaped the swelling river by flocking to an elementary school, carrying pets, TV sets, bags of clothes and bottled water.
"We can replace things, but not people's lives," said janitor Banny Domanais, arriving at the school with his wife and three young daughters.
Typhoon Nesat hit before dawn Tuesday in eastern provinces and headed inland just north of Manila with up to an inch of rain per hour, half that of the storm two years ago, said government forecaster Samuel Duran.
Emergency workers evacuated river areas in Manila that are notorious for flooding. In all, authorities ordered more than 100,000 people across the country to shelter from the storm's sustained winds and rains dropping from an immense 400-mile cloud band.

Hurricane Hilary Moving West Awary from the Coastline

2011-09-23T23:36:00.001-05:00

ACAPULCO, Mexico—Hurricane Hilary moved away from Mexico's southwestern coast in the Pacific as a powerful Category 4 storm Friday, and search teams recovered the bodies of three fishermen caught in the storm.

The hurricane was not forecast to make landfall, but Mexico's coast has been being affected by wind, rain and heavy surf from Hilary, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

The three fishermen, ages 27 to 50, went out to sea Thursday night despite a hurricane warning advising against it, Guerrero state's Public Safety Department said.

Navy rescue crews found the bodies Friday in the waters off the town of Marquelia. They had tied themselves to empty gasoline containers, the department said.

Hilary's maximum sustained winds late Friday were near 145 mph (230 kph). The hurricane was centered about 160 miles (260 kilometers) south of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was moving west at near 9 mph (15 kph).

All tropical storm watches and warnings that had been in place for Mexico's coast were discontinued as forecasters predicted the storm would keep moving away from Mexico.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ophelia had winds near 50 mph (85 kph) and was not a threat to land.

AIR Estimates Typhoon Roke Insured Losses at $150 to $600 Million

2011-09-23T23:24:00.001-05:00

Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide has given preliminary estimates of the insured losses from Typhoon Roke at between JPY 12 billion ($150 million) and JPY 46 billion ($600 million).

As reported earlier, Typhoon Roke, the 15th named storm of the 2011 Northwest Pacific typhoon season, made landfall near Japan’s Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture at 2:00 pm local time (05:00 UTC) on September 21. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 180 km/h [112.5 mph], making Roke a strong Category 2 storm.

AIR described Roke as “primarily a wind event,” but it also said that “the most readily available damage reports are from typhoon-induced flooding, with roughly 550 homes hit by “inundation above the first floor level and more than 1,160 homes that experienced inundation below the first-floor,” according to the Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency’s (FDMA) latest report.

AIR also warned that although Roke has exited Japan, “the threat from typhoon-induced flooding and landslides persists; evacuation orders remain in place for 60,000 people living in the east coast prefectures of Aichi and Mie. In Odawara and Kanagawa prefectures, also on the country’s east coast, the threat of flooding and landslides has prompted the evacuation of 240,000 residents. In total, evacuation orders from Roke have impacted 1.21 million people.”

Dr. Peter Sousounis, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, commented: “In terms of wind damage, Shizuoka prefecture was most heavily affected, although damage here and in other prefectures was mitigated by Roke’s short duration; the storm moved across central Japan in just 12 hours. Furthermore, Roke weakened quickly after landfall and its strongest winds remained over water as it moved across Japan and began extratropical transition, mitigating wind damage to onshore properties. All these factors contributed to Roke’s relatively low expected losses, despite the fact that the storm made landfall as a strong Category 2 typhoon, just 250 km southwest of Tokyo.”

According to AIR, Japan has strict and well-enforced construction codes; so far, minimal structural damage from wind has been reported. In Tokyo, there have been no reports of significant damage to buildings.

North of Tokyo, Roke’s passage over the Fukushima Dai-Ichi reactor buildings—which were significantly impacted by the Tohoku earthquake—has not caused further damage; the plant escaped the storm’s strongest winds. Roke did drop 204.5 millimeters [app. 8 inches] of rain on Namie, a town nearby, however.

4 killed as typhoon approaches Japan

2011-09-23T23:22:00.000-05:00

(CNN) -- Four people in Japan have been killed amid heavy rain from a powerful typhoon that is expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon, authorities there said.

The center of Typhoon Roke, which had sustained winds of up to 167 kph (103 mph) Wednesday morning, could hit Japan's Tokai region, which includes Nagoya city -- or the Kanto region, which includes Tokyo -- in the afternoon, Japan Meteorological Agency chief forecaster Yutaka Kanda said at a news conference.

At of 8:45 a.m. Wednesday, Roke's center was 280 kilometers southwest of Nagoya, where about 1 million people had been urged to evacuate.

An evacuation order for about 80,000 residents of Nagoya was lifted, according to local media reports.

Heavy rain fell in central and western Japan from the typhoon's outer bands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some downpours came at up to 50 millimeters (2 inches) an hour, and some parts received more than 450 millimeters (17 inches) over a day, according to Japanese public broadcaster NHK.

Four people have died in Nagoya, including a 66-year-old man who fell from a roof Tuesday while trying to fix a stuck duct, city authorities said. Two other people -- a fourth-grade boy and an 84-year-old man -- were missing in Gifu prefecture, authorities said.

People in the Tokai and Kanto regions should be prepared for heavy rain Wednesday, Kanda said, adding that the Kanto region may be most affected Wednesday evening.

No airports were closed Wednesday, but several flights toward the Kyushu and Shikoku areas were canceled, transportation officials said. Several passenger trains were not running Wednesday in central and southern Japan, railway officials said.