Angry Bear

The “no fire” economy sets a new, 55+ year record low

NewDealdemocrat — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 17:32:31 +0000

– by New Deal democrat [Administrative note: yesterday’s problem, in which the platform would not allow me add a new post, seems to have spontaneously resolved, although “officially” the blog metrics show “0 posts” in all its history, Cross your fingers that this issue has gone away permanently.] I discussed the stock market’s very positive performance earlier […]

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The employment effects of ICE enforcement in US cities

Angry Bear — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0000

Findings of the Republican and President Tr__p attack on labor and foreign Labor in surge and non-surge communities. If you scroll down on the Brooking’s article you will find figures 3 & 4 as mentioned in the footnotes in section “The enforcement surge cost 668,000 jobs” below. “Shock, awe, and economic fallout” | Brookings Brookings: […]

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Expanded Warren Take on Taxes and Why

Angry Bear — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

I added some more charts and some wording to give the original piece greater depth The Big Corporations That Avoided All Federal Income Taxes: ITEP published a list of 88 profitable corporations that reported paying zero federal income taxes on their 2025 U.S. income, in no small part due to the corporate tax cuts pushed through […]

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Musk fail or buying opportunity?

Joel Eissenberg — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 10:15:20 +0000

Or both?

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Newer Student Loan Repayment Plan

Angry Bear — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0000

My three had student loans. To help them get rid of them, I pitched in too. I knew it would take them too long to pay them off. I never told them I would help. All I told them was: decide where you want to go, what you want to major in, and get through […]

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Increasing Healthcare Insurance Costs and Lost Healthcare

Angry Bear — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Charles Gaba @ his Blog of the same name has a commentary up detailing the loss of Healthcare Insurance due to the Tr__p administration with the support of Congress. . . . In case you have forhottens? The subsidies supporting ACA healthcare was cancelled this last year. I do not know whether Charles Gaba will […]

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Israel’s proxy war

Joel Eissenberg — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 09:21:54 +0000

During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union supported proxy wars in which their client states did the dirty work. Of course, the USSR is no more, but proxy wars continue. While the current war in Iran began with joint strikes by the US and Israel, Israel now acknowledges that the US is its […]

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Regional Fed reports indicate elevated inflation is likely to continue

NewDealdemocrat — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 03:37:21 +0000

– by New Deal democrat In It appears that both producer and consumer inflation are going to continue at elevated levels, despite the actual *de*flation in June. Here’s a look at the average of the New York and Philadelphia Fed’s prices paid (blue) and prices received (orange) diffusion manufacturing indexes: In July, the average for prices […]

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Trump, expertise, the Iran war, and the unitary executive

Eric Kramer — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:54:27 +0000

Trump’s inability to evaluate expert advice and incorporate it into his thinking will undoubtedly play a large role when histories of the Iran war are written. Trump evidently ignored warnings from experts within the government that Iran would respond to an attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Once the Strait was closed, Trump had […]

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Quote of the day

Joel Eissenberg — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:41:00 +0000

There are instructive parallels between the Trump administration’s trade war with China in the first year of this term and the Iran war that is consuming its second year. In both instances, the administration grossly underestimated its rival’s resilience and capacity to retaliate, then escalated quickly and sharply before learning that the other side controlled […]

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Trump and expertise

Eric Kramer — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:15:35 +0000

Thomas Edsall (gift link): I asked political and presidential scholars how they think Trump’s mind works. Most pointed to his seemingly exclusive reliance on his own judgment while rejecting expert advice. “Many presidents have made mistakes, but none have made mistakes so cavalierly as President Trump,” Michael Bailey, a political scientist at Georgetown University, wrote by […]

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How much has Gasoline Prices Increased and Why. Explained in a Simple Manner . . .

Angry Bear — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Mostly informational . . . I subscribe to the New York Times. I do have access to some rather unique articles (in the NYT) such as this one which gives prices per gallon of gasoline by state. The data for the map was obtained from AAA by the New York Times, Map: How Much Have […]

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Manufacturing Sector

NewDealdemocrat — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 14:30:38 +0000

The manufacturing sector of the economy continued to improve in June – by New Deal democrat There’s a brief hiatus from new data early this week, so let me briefly look at the manufacturing economy, for which industrial production was reported on Friday. To briefly recap my overall position: despite the chaos coming out of […]

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President Photobomber

Angry Bear — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0000

Robert Reich – “He Can’t Resist“ Here’s you-know-who trying, as ever, to be the center of attention today. This picture was supposed to be about celebrating those who deserved it. Congratulations, Spain — along with apologies for our Malignant Narcissist-in-Chief. Embarrassing for America. He doesn’t know any better . . . It almost appears to […]

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Congressional Republicans are shrinking ACA enrollment in nearly every state

Angry Bear — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

What Charles Gaba is showing the impact of the legislation passed by Congress eliminating ACA subsidies. This largely has an impact on ACA enrollment this year. I am displaying partial of Charles’ Post on his site ACA Signups. Charles is using the CMS database to show ACA enrollment before and after the Republican controlled Congress […]

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Trump’s silly post on Canadian wildfires

Joel Eissenberg — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:21:56 +0000

“We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable!” Trump wrote on his social media platform, saying he would call Canadian Prime […]

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New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators July 13 -July 17

NewDealdemocrat — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:11:42 +0000

Weekly Indicators: All Timeframes Positive Despite Increase in Oil Prices Despite oil prices heading back north of $80/barrel this past week, the underlying fundamentals in all time frames remain positive, including most importantly consumer spending. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the […]

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Court blocks USPS from implementing Trump’s anti-mail voting order

Angry Bear — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0000

This post can be found on Steve Hutkins’ Save The Post Office. He is featuring a commentary taken from the Democracy Docket as linked to in the first paragraph. As is typical, this commentary is all about Pres. Donald Tr__p who is trying his hardest to block the upcoming election or impede it in whatever […]

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USDA Program for Affordable Housing . . .

Angry Bear — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

What Brian is touching upon is the end of a government program providing loans in rural areas for housing. To be specific, the object was providing below-market-rate loans to private and nonprofit developers who build and manage residential housing for low-income residents in small towns and rural counties. It also kept the rent to 30% […]

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Wealth taxes in America

Joel Eissenberg — Sun, 19 Jul 2026 09:06:35 +0000

I’ve been reading and thinking about the idea of wealth taxes. In principle, it’s an idea I could support. Too much wealth is controlled by too few in America today. The chief argument I see made against wealth taxes is that they’re impractical. In a literal sense, this is easily falsified. We already have some […]

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Cutting back on Discretionary Spending where people can make Cutbacks if they are Squeezed

Angry Bear — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 12:30:00 +0000

Dean Baker on Fast Food and the cuts to it when the economy is slow. The Fast-Food Spending Index is Falling Fast For the last several years I’ve been using real spending at fast food restaurants as a gage for assessing how the non-rich are feeling about their personal finances. The logic is that it […]

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Housing permits and starts continue to show a sector at an equilibrium

NewDealdemocrat — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 12:03:00 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote at length about how the entire housing market had reached an equilibrium, where almost all of the metrics were more or less flat. Meaning that this important long leading sector for the economy was about as neutral as it could be. This morning’s data on housing permits, […]

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A time of reckoning

Joel Eissenberg — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 09:08:04 +0000

I recently read a history and a biography that are both centered on the American Revolution. It reminded me that for the founding fathers, the ineluctable reality was that they were risking their lives for their beliefs. Josh Marshall has a piece up at TPM about Trump’s effort to extort control over the 2026 elections, […]

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Review: “After Tamerlane”

Bill Haskell — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:00:00 +0000

– The one-handed economist (site) Daniel Zetland . . . a political-economist from California who now lives in Amsterdam. I read this 2007 book by John Darwin months ago, but only got ’round to writing up my thoughts here now. That shouldn’t matter about 600 years of history that ended in 2000, but it does matter for […]

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June retail sales: more evidence of a Boom in consumer spending (even ex-gas)

NewDealdemocrat — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 12:38:00 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at retail sales, especially real retail sales, one of my favorite economic indicators, which was updated for June this morning. This is because consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and also because historically consumption leads employment. Let’s see what happened during a month that gas […]

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Medicare Insolvency Date is Sooner

Angry Bear — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Just some simple logic. It is easy enough to blame Tr__p for the decrease in Medicare insolvency. It is his bill which is driving the issue as well as well as other funding issues. Funding issues is no surprise as healthcare costs increased over the years. However, Congress could have acted to resolve the issue […]

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High intelligence doesn’t predict good judgement

Joel Eissenberg — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 09:10:59 +0000

I taught medical students for over 30 years. The bar to admission at Saint Louis University Medical School was pretty high for metrics like GPA and MCAT scores. But as a professor, I realized that crossing those bars was no guarantee of sound judgement. Erica Schwartz, Trump’s CDC director nominee, wasn’t a SLUSOM grad*, but […]

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Jobless claims continue to portray a “low hire, no fire” economy

NewDealdemocrat — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 01:41:41 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our usual weekly look at jobless claims, along with stock prices 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting method. And they continued to forecast expansion. Initial claims declined -8,000 for the week to 208,000, with the four week moving average declining -4,750 to 214,250. With the typical one […]

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Wholesale inflation fell

Angry Bear — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

Wholesale and Producer Price Index decreasing. Results of backing away from a war posture. Some of which is the result of a ceasefire. Oil prices increasing again after war was declared again by Tr__p. I suspect higher gasoline prices even if not driven by oil or processing costs. It can always be blamed on the […]

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O Canada, You Are Better Than We

Angry Bear — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Confessions of a deeply embarrassed American. Politics and Prejudices and other musings – Jack Lessenberry July 1 was Canada Day, the official celebration of Canada’s birth as a nation, and for the second time in three years, I went to Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, to celebrate and watch the fireworks from my hotel on St. […]

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Quote of the day

Joel Eissenberg — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 09:09:02 +0000

It’s another example of how we are in this weird and uncanny political moment in which Trump’s politics have broken free of the constraints of public opinion. (It’s reminiscent of a mob bust-out where you rapidly strip a business of its value with no concern for the future because you’re just going to burn it […]

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If YoY “PPI is less than CPI, producers do not feel under pressure to make cost (i.e., payroll) cuts”

NewDealdemocrat — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 18:50:11 +0000

“Producer price declines are ‘less good’ than consumer price declines, and on net that’s ‘bad‘” – by New Deal democrat I pay a lot less attention to producer prices than to consumer prices. Partly that is because in the past few decades, the PPI has tended to be coincident with the CPI rather than leading […]

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June Jobs Report

Angry Bear — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

There is nothing I can add to this report by Dean Baker from 10 or so days ago. The economy under Trump is still a mystery. I am waiting for the shoe to drop and realty comes to rest on us. Five Takeaways from the June Jobs Report, Dean Baker – on Patreon The June […]

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Reich on Abolishing ICE is the bare minimum

Bill Haskell — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 12:03:00 +0000

Robert is calling us to prepare for a fight with this administration. Obviously, he does not trust Republicans or Tr__p. I do not trust him either. Between Tr__p and Republicans, there has been much damage to the nation as a whole. It will come to pass in the near term future. ~~~~~~~ Trump is ramping […]

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Yes, Virginia, there’s arsenic in your rice

Joel Eissenberg — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 09:24:02 +0000

Whenever you read the conspiracy theories about fluoridated water, it’s a good idea to remember that much of the world’s water is naturally fluoridated. Indeed, the correlation between natural fluoridation and lower incidence of dental caries is what lead to artificial water fluoridation. There are plenty of other things to fret about if that’s how […]

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Two books for the sestercentennial

Joel Eissenberg — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 16:29:29 +0000

By now, we all know the Cliff Notes version of American’s founding: Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence, the colonists defeated the British at Yorktown and Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton, Adams and Franklin wrote the Constitution, which the 13 colonies/states ratified enthusiastically. As an antidote to those cliché histories, I read a couple of good books […]

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June CPI: never look a gift horse in the mouth

NewDealdemocrat — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 16:22:27 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Never look a gift horse in the mouth. June’s CPI was that kind of gift horse, reversing all of the factors that have recently surged during the Iran war. As a bonus, inflation in shelter (1/3rd of the weight of the index) continued to abate. Let’s start with the overall view. […]

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Rubio Goes Back and Forth on the Fees for the Hormuz Strait. He Needed Permission . . .

Angry Bear — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

Trump’s new policy drew attention to remarks Rubio made just weeks earlier, while on a visit June 23. A visit he paid to the United Arab Emirates. It was then he slammed the prospect of transit fees in the waterway in a caution to Iran. June 23, 2026: Marco Rubio’s warning ‘no country’ can charge […]

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After U.S.-Iran War, Oman Proposes Hormuz Fee Plan

Angry Bear — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Hmmm . . . Before the US conflict with Iran, Iran and Oman did not charge fees for passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This, according to the New York Times. And now? “Iran and U.S.-allied Oman are moving forward with plans to collect payment for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite public American […]

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New Deal democrat’s New Role . . . a Movie Reviewer

NewDealdemocrat — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 17:08:58 +0000

It appears (as stated) New Deal is either on the road, taking a train, or flying somewhere to relax, have some fun, or gathering information for a new report. I hope for the earlier two latter as NDd is typically busy reporting on the economy in his fashion. So as a surprise or treat, NDd […]

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Tampering with History and the Environment

Angry Bear — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

Trump Rewrites History and Ignores Its Lessons There are two famous quotes about history often attributed to Winston Churchill: In point of fact, Churchill wasn’t the original source of either. But those two sentiments are a useful way to look at the fight over American history currently being waged by the White House against the […]

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Reducing Food Insecurity

Bill Haskell — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Reducing Food Insecurity Among Children in the U.S. Econofact Lisa A. Gennetian and Diane Schanzenbach The Issue: Adequate access to healthy nutrition is a key component for children’s development. Children need food to grow and show up to school ready to learn. Yet in 2023 (latest data available) almost one in six children in the United States […]

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Advances in solar power

Joel Eissenberg — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 09:17:50 +0000

For the last eight years we lived in St. Louis, we had rooftop solar. Ameren paid half the cost, and we got a 30% tax write-off on the rest. The 22 panels only exceeded consumption for a couple months a year. The total savings didn’t pay off the investment. No matter, we did our part […]

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Declining President . . .

Angry Bear — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 17:27:25 +0000

Just a partial of an “Informed Comment‘” commentary by Tom Engelhardt. “A Declining President may take the Planet down with him,” Informed Comment (Tom Engelhardt Substack) – Iran, Iraq, Irate. Honestly, just in case you hadn’t noticed, what a truly strange world we now find ourselves in. I mean, from George Washington to Barack Obama, […]

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New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for July 6 – 10, 2026

NewDealdemocrat — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up. The high frequency data continues to confirm my Big Picture outlook that after a near-miss or possible “mini-recession” late last year, the economy is rebounding. In particular, the YoY improvements, already Booming, in consumer spending are accelerating even more. Some of this is probably the wealth effect from stock portfolios, […]

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Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern Railroads

Bill Haskell — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 12:04:00 +0000

Rail Passengers Association | Substack Bit of an Introduction. Having ridden in trains in other countries, I can see where having similar passenger rail services would benefit the United States. Rather than traveling by air, one could take a trip by passenger rail to another state several hundred miles away and arrive in better condition […]

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Quote of the day

Joel Eissenberg — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 08:59:49 +0000

Americans, once members of a proudly literate society, read much less than they used to. According to the National Endowment for the Arts, which conducts the most comprehensive survey of the nation’s reading habits, fewer than half of all adults reported having read a book of any kind in 2022. Only 38 percent read a […]

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“Entrenched Economic Power”

NewDealdemocrat — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 00:27:34 +0000

– by New Deal democrat As we come to the end of the week after the payrolls report, when typically, almost nothing is reported, I wanted to follow up on several posts I wrote last week: one, revisiting the configuration of long leading indicators, and second, Republics are very durable unless and until they are […]

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What are ACA Enrollees Paying this Year due to Trump/GOP Policies?

Angry Bear — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:50:00 +0000

NATIONAL: How much more are ACA enrollees *really* paying this year due to Trump/GOP policies? ACA Signups, Charles Gaba Partial post taken from; “How much more are ACA enrollees *really* paying this year due to Trump/GOP policies?” Charles Gaba @ ACA Signups. Nationally, on average, net ACA premiums have jumped by 58% this year vs. last, from […]

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Crypto Meme Coin

Bill Haskell — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 12:15:00 +0000

Bit of Robert Reich running the numbers on Crypto Memecoin for 2025. Trump came out ahead and everyone else lost. Care to buy another bottle of “Doctor Good” from Tr__p. It is kind of hard to understand how a president of future president could hoodwink his constituents. But he did. “‘Once a crypto skeptic, Mr. […]

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Making America unhealthy again

Joel Eissenberg — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 09:19:50 +0000

You probably have read about increasing reports of violent and potentially life-threatening diarrhea caused by cyclospora in multiple states. Cyclospora isn’t new, but the Trump administration stopped tracking it. “As of July 1, the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) program has reduced surveillance to just two pathogens: salmonella and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), […]

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Political Parties

Ken Melvin — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 02:31:00 +0000

Unless and until something better — democracy first. First because democracy gives the power of governance to those governed. Ours, democracy itself, is a work in progress. One that is always asking, what can we do to make our democracy work better? Along that vein, herein is a look at some of the pros and […]

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Destroying America According to Trump

Angry Bear — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 16:59:40 +0000

Pres. Tr__p is whining about the SCOTUS decision granting magazine columnist E. Jean Carroll her $5million suit against Tr__p. Tough breaks when one person assaults another and denigrates them also. “The Supreme Court’s ruling is wrong,” Trump posted on social media. “I will be asking for a Rehearing by the United States Supreme Court, IMMEDIATELY. This miscarriage […]

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The housing market’s new suboptimal equilibrium: flat, flat, and flat

NewDealdemocrat — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 14:00:00 +0000

– by New Deal democrat It has been four years since the Fed started aggressively raising interest rates, causing mortgage rates to rise similarly. It has been over four years since home sales peaked, and also about four years since the median price of a new home peaked. Finally, it has also been four years […]

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Technology and Social Change

Angry Bear — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 13:05:00 +0000

4 years and counting since the release of AI upon the public. The author (Paul) touches upon this initially than goes forward discussing things other than technology change. A welcome relief? I am not sure. The reader has to determine such. “AI’s ubiquity, its economic impact remains unclear. We don’t yet know what it will […]

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What is Going on at SCOTUS? Attempted Ban on Semi-Automatics and Birthright Decision

Angry Bear — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 12:30:00 +0000

Beyond the Headlines: The Supreme Court’s Final Decisions” (two), Civil Discourse, Joyce Vance First one is ongoing and the second was decided. About a five-minute read with clear explanations and more detail on the site. – Bans on Semi-Automatic rifles? Are bans legal? In particular the AR-15 is being discussed. Some explanation and still a […]

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The triumph of hope over experience?

Joel Eissenberg — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 09:05:12 +0000

Green Mountain College in Poultney VT closed in 2019 due to insufficient funds. Now, a traveling Pentecostal preacher from Florida has announced on Facebook (from Disneyland) that he’s gonna make it into a Christian fundamentalist college in the least religious state in the nation. The whiskey magnate Raj Bhakta bought the campus in 2020 and […]

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Once was not Enough

Angry Bear — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 16:56:00 +0000

Taken from today’s SCOTUS Blog. The president thinks he is special and is entitled to second hearing by SCOTUS on the same issues.. President Jjackass is again attempting to have birthright overridden in SCOTUS; Trump wants court to rehear birthright citizenship case,” SCOTUSblog. “President Donald Trump announced that he would seek ‘to get the Supreme […]

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Jobles claims: the “low-hire, no-fire” regime continues, as the “Quick and Dirty” forecast model remains positive

NewDealdemocrat — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 15:48:44 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. In addition to being 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting system (the other 1/2 being stock prices), they have a 60 year history of being a good short leading indicator. [Later this morning we’ll get existing home sales, and I’ll […]

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“Having Air Conditioning Is Not a Climate Sin”

Angry Bear — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

As Lloyd says it, the real issue here are people and their habits of abusing the climate. These issues have been getting more and more serious as the years go by. And the people and their governments have been ignoring the coming threat of increasing heat. The attitude has been, we can fix it tomorrow. […]

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Quote of the day

Joel Eissenberg — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 09:23:58 +0000

The U.S. abandoning NATO now doesn’t mean Europe will revert to a 1914 mindset; too many economic, cultural, and political threads have been sewn together in the post-WWII period for it to revert to that arrangement. But it is a distinctly American myopia to think Europe will stand pat, won’t evolve on its own as […]

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Yes, wars have consequences, and the war with Iran seems to have been a serious mistake.

Eric Kramer — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 20:36:05 +0000

Tyler Cowen has a post up about recent developments in the U.S./Iran war. His post contains criticism of some not-so-smart and confused but unnamed others, and an attempt to win an argument with these unnamed opponents by questioning their credentials. I find this an unhelpful mode of argument. But he does ask an interesting question, […]

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Once Again It Appears Iran has Rejected the Three Doors Being Offered-Up in “Tr__P Making Deals” Proposal

Angry Bear — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 19:39:05 +0000

I keep imaging a a bizarre format “lets make a deal” by Tr__p attempting to entice Iran to accept a cease-fire in what he calls a “deal.” No other president has offered up (so many) deals when he negotiates or legislates. Just to be clear. I am aware of Teddy Rosevelt’s Square Deal, then Franklin […]

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Regional Fed surveys confirm manufacturing rebound: services, not so much

NewDealdemocrat — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 16:11:37 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes, pointing out that they have shown a rebound this year. Today let’s take a brief look at the regional Fed manufacturing and services indexes. Below are the manufacturing and services indexes, averaged over the four Fed districts whose […]

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Soccer is the most popular sport in the world . . .

Bill Haskell — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

It has over 265 million active players. I did not play soccer. My sons and daughter did. I did get a “D” license and went on to referee classes. The Soccer Coach at University of Wisconsin ran the classes. Since I was working for Oscar Mayer at the time, I got the bun length hot […]

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The V28 Model Balances the Differences Between Medicare Advantage and Traditional Medicare Plans

Angry Bear — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

This is not new news. It goes back for years. Medicare Advantage costs more than Medicare. Much of this is due to price setting. Advantage plans will receive overpayments of approximately $76 billion Center for American Progress above what the same care would cost in traditional FFS Medicare. This is nothing new. It has been […]

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We must be better

Joel Eissenberg — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 09:25:49 +0000

“In 2017, Roy Moore was accused of sexual misconduct with teenage girls, including one who was fourteen at the time of the alleged assault. Nine women came forward. The reporting was extensive and documented. The Republican Party of Alabama endorsed him anyway. The President of the United States endorsed him. He lost by less than […]

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Scenes from the June jobs report: a weak but improving economy

NewDealdemocrat — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 16:49:37 +0000

– by New Deal democrat There’s no important new economic news today, so let’s take a somewhat deeper dive into last Thursday’s employment report for June. To cut to the chase, this is of a piece of my “Big Picture” narrative from Friday in which I wrote that most of the signals suggest and economy coming […]

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People Say the Economy is Bad

Angry Bear — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

Dean is discussing Fees being charged to people. On the other side is insurance costs. Car insurance took a jump this year and we barely drive 5000 miles a year. Homeowner’s insurance is another cost. If you have less than a 20% down mortgage? More likely than not, there will be a mortgage insurance tied […]

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How Invisible Capital Gains Drive Extreme U.S. Wealth Concentration

Steve Roth — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

“How Invisible Capital Gains Drive Extreme U.S. Wealth Concentration: Evidence from Balance-Sheet-Complete Haig-Simons Accounting” Steve Roth @ Wealth Economics A dominant economic fact of the past half century is the extreme and increasing concentration of U.S. wealth into the hands of ever-fewer people, families, and dynasties, and the corporations (including banks, insurers, major media companies, […]

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The Trump slippery slope

Joel Eissenberg — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 10:50:04 +0000

My postdoc mentor used to say “We don’t compare ourselves to the worst, we compare ourselves to the best.” Does that aphorism apply in politics? “POLITICO REPORTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON that Graham Platner’s ex-girlfriend said he “forced her to have sex with him nearly five years ago despite her repeated objections.” Immediately after the story […]

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Quote of the day

Joel Eissenberg — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:07:58 +0000

“Guns don’t kill people. People kill people.” Well no shit, Sherlock. We want mandatory safety classes for people, not guns. We want more background checks of people, not guns. We want stricter negligence penalties imposed on people, not guns. If you’re stupid enough to think activists are pissed off at guns, you’re too stupid to […]

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The economically weighted ISM indexes for June show continued growth, equipoise in employment, and still strong inflation at the producer level

NewDealdemocrat — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 19:17:46 +0000

– by New Deal democrat The economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services indexes have become one of my favorite datapoints. In particular, in the past year they have been an excellent dashboard for the state of the US economy as a whole, both as a coincident and short leading indicator. Last summer they accurately suggested that […]

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“the enemy of Republics is entrenched power”

NewDealdemocrat — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 16:34:26 +0000

The United States of America at 250: the enemy of Republics is entrenched power – by New Deal democrat On America’s 250th anniversary, the state of the Republic is not good. Ten years ago, after the 2016 election, I embarked upon a reading journey, to seek an answer to the questions: are Republics fragile? Are they […]

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“taking payment in yuan and using those yuan to buy Chinese goods”

Angry Bear — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

Sounds like a strategy to me. Been to China multiple times. Interesting place to go. We would fly in Beijing. The plant manager’s vehicle along with two drivers would pick us up and take us to the plant in Tianjin. We would spend a few days there listening to the issues, taking notes, and discuss […]

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Those Other People . . .

Bill Haskell — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

A couple of commentaries by Robert Reich. Some history on a new candidate that is different than what is usually picked. This World War II PSA Warned Us About Fascism – Robert Reich Robert Reich: I came across this Public Service Announcement produced by the U.S. government in 1945. It seems apt today, on the […]

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Why is it so hot?

Joel Eissenberg — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 11:37:49 +0000

A heat dome that covered southern New England finally moved on yesterday. The highs touched 100°F, and with the humidity, the heat indices were five degrees higher. I have a feeling this won’t be the last of it. “The world’s oceans are the hottest on record for June, pushing past records set during the 2023–24 […]

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Podcast or Read? “Abraham Lincoln and the Role of Government in the Economy”

Angry Bear — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 18:02:16 +0000

I read Michael Klein’s (executive editor of EconoFact) conversation with Roger Lowenstein on the role of government in the economy. It is not terribly long. Maybe 10-15 minutes in listening and a bit longer in reading for me. I like to read as I dwell on what I read. Then I will go back and […]

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The Stench of Corruption and Dictator-worship is Over-powering.

Bill Haskell — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 12:35:00 +0000

As you read Paul Krugman’s commentary on the Slaughter decision by SCOTUS, it is not that hard to understand why he is concerned about the results of the SCOTUS decision. I typically might say (in a normal situation) we could expect a president given this power would decide in a manner benefiting citizens. Not this […]

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New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators: Simply Stellar Consumer Spending June 29 – July 4

NewDealdemocrat — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Weekly Indicators: Still Strong Spending, Tepid Tax Payments Two cross-currents I mentioned in my long piece Friday were very much in evidence in the high frequency data this week: huge gains in aggregate YoY consumer spending, and very weak withholding tax collections. My take on this is that the top end of the income distribution […]

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The future of medical genetics

Joel Eissenberg — Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:43:29 +0000

Nearly three decades ago, I created a course for first year medical students called “Molecular Biology and Genetics.” Together with a clinical faculty, I co-directed the course for 22 years. There’s a piece over at Medpage about “niche careers” in medicine. Here’s one: “7. Medical Genetics and GenomicsMedical geneticists diagnose and manage hereditary conditions, using […]

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GOP and Trump Policies Increase ACA Insurance Costs

Angry Bear — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 13:15:00 +0000

This is a long commentary. However, it is very detailed. Charles Gaba explains the impact of Republicans allowing the enhanced federal tax credits to expire as well as other Trump Regime policy changes. Quite a few middle and low citizens dropped healthcare policies or took lower costs due to affordability. “How much more are ACA enrollees *really* […]

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After the Attempted Albertson’s Merger

Bill Haskell — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 12:30:00 +0000

Kroger is looking to acquire Giant Eagle at ~1.7 billion. So far the FTC has not made a peep. The franchise can be found in Ohio, western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland and Indiana. “Kroger is again Looking to Acquire Other Supermarket Chains” Is a Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Strategy good for Kroger? Probably as it […]

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My Big Picture nowcast and forecast at mid-year 2026 (it may surprise you!)

NewDealdemocrat — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Earlier this week I promised an updated Big Picture forecast and nowcast for the US economy, plus a note about how broad or narrow was the participation. Most commentators either have a financial or ideological agenda – getting you to buy their stock recommendations, or selling you on DOOOM, cherry […]

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Happy July 4th, Bears!

Joel Eissenberg — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 08:49:12 +0000

“I don’t know a soul who’s not been batteredI don’t have a friend who feels at easeI don’t know a dream that’s not been shatteredOr driven to its kneesOh, but it’s all right, it’s all rightFor lived so well so longStill, when I think of the roadWe’re traveling onI wonder what went wrongI can’t help […]

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Did Trump have more Votes than Biden?

Bill Haskell — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 22:33:05 +0000

Every Once and A while someone says “I bet” if you compare this with that instead of today’s numbers you would find that such and such was different. Like such and such would have happened also. The occasion has arisen. One of Angry Bear’s readers and also a commenter has tossed down the gauntlet. He […]

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Income Driven Student Loan Repayments

Angry Bear — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 14:17:08 +0000

All three of mine had student loans which they were capable of repaying. At the same time, we pitched in to pay for them off too. Student loan are like dead weight. They are with you until death. On the other side of the spectrum, there are many other examples of business entities being granted […]

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Academic Ideas to Working Policies Differences in the Public Sector

Angry Bear — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

I do read Dan Zetland’s site the One-Handed Economist from time to time. He does post interesting commentaries which Angry Bear reposts. This happens to be one of the ones I find to be interesting. Soft money versus hard money? What are the differences between either and especially when it comes to physical labor? From […]

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More activity, less cancer

Joel Eissenberg — Fri, 03 Jul 2026 08:59:04 +0000

“Prolonged, uninterrupted sedentary behavior was associated with a significantly increased likelihood of dying of cancer, a study of more than 90,000 people showed. “Every additional hour of prolonged sedentary behavior per day was linked with a 10% higher hazard of cancer mortality. Replacing an hour of sedentary behavior daily with light physical activity or with […]

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June employment report: weakly positive headlines, and important negatives in hours and payrolls

NewDealdemocrat — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 18:18:57 +0000

– by New Deal democrat My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. After three good reports in a row, the June employment report was very weak, and in some respects even negative. Below […]

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Leadership and Justice that Looks the Other Way and Ignores Racism

Angry Bear — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

As I explained multiple times. Turn out was less in 2024 that in 2020. 3 million people did not vote, The same numeric of ~ three million who voted for others did similar in 2024 and it had a larger impact. Turn out was less in 2024 by percentage of eligible voters 59.7% as compared […]

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Slashing Funding for Passenger Rail Trains is Not a Solution

Angry Bear — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

If you have ridden the passenger trains in China. you know what a difference it is compared to passenger trains in the United States. I have and it is impressive traveling at ~200 mph. It is not that we can not have similar in the United States. We could. People are enamored with their cars […]

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Great news for coffee drinkers

Joel Eissenberg — Thu, 02 Jul 2026 09:10:19 +0000

I started drinking coffee in high school. Over time, the amount increased, so that by about 15 years ago, I was drinking three pots of coffee a day. It was then that I started experiencing acid reflux. Upon learning that acid reflux is a risk factor for esophageal cancer, I quit cold turkey. Within a […]

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Starting off the second half of 2026 (mainly) positive

NewDealdemocrat — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 21:36:19 +0000

– by New Deal democrat [Special programming note: Today we begin the second half of the year. On Friday there will be no data due to the federal holiday. Since I haven’t updated my overall nowcast and forecast for the economy, as well as how average Americans are doing economically, I plan to do so then. […]

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Increasing Corporate Funding and Spending for Candidates Leading up to the 2026 Elections

Angry Bear — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:40:00 +0000

Introduction: Nearly one third of all corporate political spending on elections since the 2010 Citizens United decision has occurred in the current election cycle. This is months before the general election, a new report from Public Citizen. I suspect this is more for Republicans then Democrats. “‘A Disaster for Democracy’: Report Shows Surging Corporate Spending in 2026 Elections,” Common Dreams, […]

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The Late Rise of Electric Cars

Angry Bear — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Some introduction and then explanation. A rather brief take on what is going on with the Electric Car in the United States and why it did not succeed. Think Trump . . . President Trump has ordered the elimination of the EV mandate and termination of federal support for EVs. “Quantifying Trump’s impacts on EV […]

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Latest TACO?

Joel Eissenberg — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 09:17:24 +0000

Trump refused to sign a housing bill passed by bipartisan veto-proof majorities. But if he refuses to sign it and refuses to veto it, it becomes law. “Speaker Mike Johnson says the landmark housing affordability package Congress passed earlier this month will become law — and that Republicans won’t have to take an uncomfortable vote […]

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Repeat home sales continue to show almost no shelter inflation at all

NewDealdemocrat — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:29:21 +0000

– by New Deal democrat Besides affordability being of great importance for potential homebuyers, housing also forms about 1/3rd of the entire CPI. House prices are not a component of the CPI, but historically their trend has led the official component, “Owners’ Equivalent Rent,” by about 12 to 18 months. And for about the last […]

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Assessing a SCOTUS Decision

Angry Bear — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:16:39 +0000

Robert is addressing why the latest SCOTUS decision is in deliberate error when reviewing what the FTC is mandated to do by law. Can SCOTUS deliberately disregard the will of Congress and install its own hacks in independent regulatory agencies (with the odd exception of the Federal Reserve Board)? Some might call this, legislating from […]

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Abbott’s conduct significantly reprehensible with regard to Similac Manufacturing Issues

Angry Bear — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 14:00:00 +0000

Having worked in the healthcare field manufacturing products, extraordinary care has to be taken so as to avoid just as happened in the manufacture of Similac. “Missouri Appeals court upholds $495M ruling against Abbott in baby formula case,” Seeking Alpha Abbott is still on the hook for $95M in compensatory damages and $400M in punitive […]

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