Comeback kid
This week Gerard and Servio have been nominated. The fan base of Servio proved they are a force to be reckoned with, but the statistics show that Gerard definitely is in the lead. The difference this week, in comparison to last week, is that only two people are nominated. Last week Servio had his second comeback, but will the fans of Gerard let it come to this for a third time?

If I had to believe the Secret Story fans from fok.nl, Gerard should easily stay. This fan base has proven to be accurate about the favorite every week, but not about the one eliminated. Every variable seems against Servio, except his massive fan base and their promotion campaigns. Is this the week Servio’s story ends?

My prediction:
Servio (will be eliminated)
Gerard (will stay)

Battle of the fan bases
This week will be between the fan bases. A head tot head between Gerard and Servio. It is also an opportunity for the fans of Guido to get their revenge for last week. Therefore Servio will leave the house. But if he stays with only a very small difference, I have learned that the fan base of Servio will make up for 200 to 250 followers on Twitter.

(My results are based on the variables at 17:00 PM, 3,5 hours before the live show)

Update: Servio made sure I made a mistake the two times he was nominated. This didn’t keep me predicting he would be eliminated for a third time. This time Servio was finally eliminated and I was finally right this week. Gerard can stay en my current score is: four times the right prediction and two times one mistake and the most popular person right. We’ll see if I can keep it up next week.

Will Servio survive again?
The only time my prediction was off was when I thought Servio would leave the house. But his fan base came through and kept him in the show. His fan base was larger then and much more active on Twitter. So Servio could stay in week 3 and Maik had to go. Strangely enough he is still in the house for unknown reasons. But this week the danger zone seems to be very clear for Servio. This week his fan base is the smallest of them all.

Clearly Philip is in the lead and is growing his fan base the fastest for the last days. Guido is stabilizing, but still far ahead of Servio.

What could go wrong? Well the fan base of Servio proved itself to be very strong in the third week. They go start voting and campaign like crazy and pull of a stunt. Philip, just like Laura, has proven himself very popular. Therefor the struggle will be between Servio en Guido.

My prediction for this week:
3. Servio (will be eliminated)
2. Guido
1. Philip

I said it would be a week for boldness. The person with the smallest fan base has been eliminated for four weeks in a row. Therefor it should be obvious that Servio will leave the Secret Story house tonight. Philip will, for the second time, gather the most votes and Guido will be ok. There is not much to add. If I am wrong this week Servio and his fan base have proven to be my Achilles heel.

(My results are based on the variables at 15:00 PM, 5,5 hours before the live show)

Update: For the fifth week in a row fan base seemed to be a good indicator to predict Secret Story. But for the second time the fan base of Servio has proven to be stronger. For the second time they have pulled Servio through. You could even say that the trend in twitter followers showed that Guido was losing terrain to Servio. This is the second time I am wrong. The second time because of the fan base of Servio. The next time Servio is nominated I won’t ignore that group of hard working people and their strong social media campaign again. Maybe this week was the turning point. Maybe from now on mobilization of the fan base will become more important.

Stopped watching SSTNL
Yes, I stopped watching the show because last week I predicted Servio would leave the house, while the statistics showed Maik would leave. My prediction, for some reason, was that the fan base of Moniek would vote for Maik and keep him in the show. How naive. Maik clearly had the smallest fan base and in the second week of predicting I mentioned that this would be the most important variable in the first weeks. To not get my judgment clouded again and having no affection towards any candidates, I stopped watching.

Being Bold
So after making that mistake, this week wanted to go in bold. I’m wanted to neglect a lot of statistics and trust the one statistic that had proven to be stable for the last three week: fan base. The fan base for Sharon is smaller so according to this variable she will be eliminated.

But there is one big problem: Sofia wants to go home! Will het fan base let her go? This is an important question. Cause there could also be a sadistic group that could try to keep her in the television show. Sofia wants to go, so much is clear when you take a look at the twitter account of Sofia. It isn’t asking for support. Sharon’s twitter account definitely is. Therefor the results of this elimination round should be simple. You don’t need social media monitoring for this one.

My prediction:
1. Sofia (will be eliminated)
2. Sharon
3. Laura

(My results are based on the variables at 17:00 PM, 3,5 hours before the live show)

Update: Let’s quote myself: “You don’t need social media monitoring for this one.” I’m not proud about this prediction, but is was my third 100 percent score. Next week hopefully Secret Story NL still exists and the elimination will be a normal round. Next week it is finally time for boldness!

]]> http://www.ilikemysecrets.com/test-case-secret-story-nl-prediction-elimination-4/feed/ 0 http://www.ilikemysecrets.com/test-case-secret-story-nl-prediction-elimination-3/ http://www.ilikemysecrets.com/test-case-secret-story-nl-prediction-elimination-3/#comments Thu, 03 Mar 2011 14:29:03 +0000 Ward Geene http://www.ilikemysecrets.com/?p=74 The Secret Story house is getting ready for its third elimination round tonight. Maik, Servio en Alexander are nominated and my prediction is that Servio will leave the house. I base my prediction on social media monitoring as I did for the last two weeks. My first and second prediction where spot on. Will I keep my 100 percent score or will this be the first week my prediction is off?

This week I want to focus a little more on the sentiment and the role this plays in the voting behavior of the audience. Therefor I will cut this very short and move directly to my prediction for tonight:

1. Servio (will be eliminated)
2. Maik
3. Alexander

Bad Sentiment
Why will Servio leave the Secret Story NL house? It seems to be that sentiment plays a big part this week. According to a poll on FOK.nl Alexander is the most popular of the three men nominated to leave the house. Servio is the least popular. He is not the person that receives the least amount of vote, this is Maik, but most of the people want to see him leave.

The reasons people want to see Servio leave are because he has not been very friendly towards the favorite: Alexander. People think he is a gossip queen, ruins the game, sets people against each other and thought himself invincible because of his position amongst the women. On Twitter there is even a hastag called #exitservio. If the public wants to see somebody leave it is Servio. But the voting is about who gets the most votes. So how will Maik surpass Servio in that account?

Saving Maik
Maik has the least amount of followers and fans and therefor could loose this elimination round. But it will not be his fan base that will save him this time. His relationship with Monique will get him support from her fan base. The buzz around Maik and Servio seems to be even today, but most of Servio’s buzz is negative and Maik’s buzz is about him and Monique. People don’t want to split up this Secret Story couple and will try to keep Maik from leaving.

Next to all of this a lot of fans of Alexander want to see Servio leave the house. Alexander has gathered a lot of votes and will also see some support from the fan base who already voted for Alexander.

Where this comes down to
So Maik will be getting votes from his own fanbase, the fan base of Monique and from the people that want to see Servio leave. Servio will only receive votes from his own fanbase that is smaller than those other three combined. Alexander is too popular to get into the danger zone. Therefor Servio will have to leave the house and Maik will get out of this nasty position. I will update the results later today.

(My results are based on the variables at 14:30 PM, 6 hours before the live show)

Update: Trusting my results, variables and a bit of gut feeling this third week of Secret Story NL I predicted Alexander would get the most votes. And he did! Next was the battle between Maik and Servio. Had the viewers voted for Maik to keep him together with Monique? fI they did I would get my third 100 percent score in a row. The tension was rising like crazy. The final results where in. Maik had to leave! The final twitter campaign for Servio saved him in the end. The battle was hard and it gave Servio a last and final boost on which I should have counted. Better luck next time. I was wrong!

Volume versus sentiment
Although my most important mission might seem to be predicting the results of the elimination round, I am more interested in which variables are important in which stage in predicting this kind of television program. I expect the importance of different variables to change over time. Volume and reach may be important in the beginning as fan base will be even more important. Do viewers know who the candidate is? Did they get enough exposure or airtime to gather enough fans? Later on even the casual viewers will be acquainted with everybody and my expectation is that sentiment will be more important. Therefor last week I focused on volume and predicted that Jurien was to discrete to get enough votes.

Now that it is the second week, I expect volume and fan base still being the most important important variables opposed to the sentiment. Bad advertising en negative publicity can raise volume and reach, but will it be more important than the size of you fan base? Will the attention and the amount of exposure save Cynthia of the negative publicity? I frankly don’t know.

Interesting changes
In contrast to last week things have changed. The Secret Story NL website has changed its use of the Facebook like button. Last week you could trace how many likes a candidate individually had, but now it’s seems the like buttons is the same on all the pages of the website. Is this to make the website seem more popular? No matter the reason, this doesn’t help me on my prediction quest. But I will not be downcast.

My prediction for tonight:
1. Cynthia (will be eliminated)
2. Aafke
3. Laura

There is a lot of fuzz around Cynthia. Almost all other inhabitants of the Secret Story NL house are displeased with her behavior. In contrast to Gerard who generated a lot of fuzz last week Cynthia has been nominated not because she is a dangerous opponent, but because people dislike her. There seems to be only two ways out of the elimination round for her and get to the save zone. First people could start to feel compassion for her or second people could give her enough votes because she has by far the biggest fan base. The last option doesn’t seem to be the case, just like the first one doesn’t show in the sentiment. She simply has to much negative sentiment and the smallest fan base. This is why Cynthia will leave the Secret Story NL house tonight.

These stats of Twittercounter.com are a little bit off for Laura. Her real amount of followers today was 621 followers instead of the 526. It is always good to double check you variables!

Predicting the #2 and #3 is a lot harder. And when I say a lot, I mean a lot. In contrast to last week there is nobody that seems to stand out based on popularity. Normally I would have a look at the like buttons on the candidates their personal page, but these don’t give me the right information anymore. On Twitter Aafke and Laura are almost even on followers, but the @STT_Laura has never posted a tweet. Instead the buddy of Laura uses the Dutch social network Hyves. On the other hand Aafke already has her personal fan page. So the fan bases seem to be even between the two. There is one big difference though: airtime. Overall Laura got a lot more of attention throughout the first two weeks. Therefor the audience will feel a lot more acquainted to Laura and therefor she will receive the most votes.

To wrap it up: My prediction is that Cynthia will be eliminated because of a lack of reach, buzz volume, fan base and the amount of negative sentiment. Aafke has the biggest reach and fan base, but Laura has the biggest buzz volume and amount of airtime overall. This week will show us what is more important. Will it be reach and fan base or will it be buzz volume and airtime over the first two weeks. I’m sticking with buzz and airtime for this week and therefor with Laura to generate the most votes. Some people might not even know who Aafke is!

Do you think I am wrong? Do you think my reasoning is off? Or do you like my predictions and have some tips? Let me know down below in the comments or by tweeting or like this page. Logically the final results will follow in an update tonight around 22.00 PM GMT.

(My results are based on the variables at 4:30 PM, 4 hours before the live show)

Update: The results are in. At the end Laura was told she received 50 percent of the votes. Cynthia unfortunately had to leave the Secret Story NL house as predicted. This leaves Aafke in second place and it leaves me again with a spot on prediction and a 100 percent score using social media monitoring tools. Will I keep my perfect score up? I hope to see you next week and please spread the word of the existence of this blog! Thanks in advance.

How does Klout work?
Klout is a metrics that says to represent your social web influence. It is mainly based on Twitter, but you can also connect your Facebook and LinkedIn profiles to get a more refined score. But before you start using a metric like Klout in your social media monitoring analyses you should always follow a simple rule: truly know and understand what this metrics really means. Somebodies Klout Score can be 28 or 58, but how is this metric calculated? What does it mean if somebody has a higher Klout score? The answer is not as simple a you might have hoped in the case of Klout, but there is a clear explanation of Klout and how your score is measured on their website.

Klout is based on three calculated metrics: True Reach, Amplification Probability and Network Influence. To calculate these metrics Klout uses over 35 variables. As you can tell, that gets very complex.

To measure your True Reach Klout for example will calculate how far your tweets spread across the social web. It will look at how many people you follow, follow you, the ratio of following/followers, number of retweets, the lists you are added to and how many followers these lists have. This kind a data determines your Klout True Reach.

While reach is important to get your message spread across the social web you also need engagement. The Amplification Probability score represents variables like the amount of unique retweets, unique replies or unique likes. Amplification Probability for example determines if you are retweeted a lot within a small group of people or a lot of different people.

Finally you can improve your Network Influence. Well actually you can’t, because this metric is all about the influence of the people that follow and engage with you. Let’s say it is about the Klout Score of the people that follow you.

These three metrics are combined in that what is called your Klout Score. And while you now know a little bit more detail about how everything is calculated, you still don’t know what Klout really represents. As I explained it, it is still too complex to understand right away. To get to the simple version you need to understand how to improve your Klout Score.

How to improve you Klout Score
Improving your Klout Score is not a simple as following more people or being followed more. The ratio following/followed by is also important for you True Reach. So unfollowing the Twitter accounts you don’t really want to follow will give your Klout score a little boost. It will assume that you need to follow less people to get more followers. Still it is good to get more followers. True Reach is a about the size of the audience you can gather around you. Start tweeting interesting stuff instead of boring stuff and your followers should go up. As will your Klout Score.

To really improve your score you need to do something about you Amplification Probability. This is all about the amount your engagement you generate. Making people react to what you are saying and posting is the way to push your Amplification to a next level. And this is the key metrics to improve your Klout Score because: “The final Klout Score is a representation of how successful a person is at engaging their audience and how big of an impact their messages have on people.”

What does Klout really represent?
Now you know how to improve your Klout Score you also know what it simply represents. It tells you if people engage with their audience and if their audience is capable of making sure people have an impact. People with a high Klout Score are people that engage with their audience and might have influence. Maybe not because they have 100 followers themselves, but because they are retweeted a lot by the people that follow them and do have 10.000 followers.

Therefor Klout is a great tool for measuring influence, but use it as a guide. The metrics is to complex to follow blindly, but is a great way to filter out those people that never engage with their audience. Maybe the low Klout scores are more important to watch, instead of the really high ones.

This time I will try and predict the results of the weekly elimination rounds of the Dutch version of Secret Story. This week Gerard, Jurien and Philip are in the danger zone of being eliminated.

Only free tools
While I used the paid Brandwatch social media monitoring tool for The Voice of Holland, I want to experiment a little bit with free tools. This time I don’t want to spend money on tools like Brandwatch and Radian 6, so I want to see how far free tools can take me on the road of successfully predicting the elimination results. Therefore I will start this week using the following tools:

• Alterian SM2 free version up to 1000 results
• Klout.com
• Twittercounter.com
• Buzzpage on secretstory.nl

This week I will focus on followers, volume and sentiment.

My prediction for tonight:

1. Jurien (will be eliminated)
2. Gerard
3. Philip

The variables show that Gerard has the most volume on social media, but he has the highest amount of negative sentiment. Philip’s sentiment is mostly positive and he also has the most followers and good volume. Jurien doesn’t have much volume and people don’t really have an opinion about him. Though a lot of people want Gerard to leave, he also has gathered a lot of people around him that want him to stay. This conflict could get him a lot of votes. And because the program is about who gets the most votes in favor of him or her, Gerard will have enough positive volume in comparison to Jurien. Philip will be the one least likely to leave according to the variables.

My prediction is that the buzz around Gerard will save him this time and Jurien will be eliminated because of the lack of buzz. I will update the results later today.

(My results are based on the variables at 4:30 PM, 3 hours before the live show)

Update: My prediction was right: Jurien had to leave the house and was eliminated. The percentages weren’t show at the end but the last intermediate score showed clearly that Philip was in the lead. Next week it is the the ladies turn to be eliminated. Hope to see you next week and let’s hope my next prediction is as spot on as the one this week!

While you can measure your own stats using Bit.ly or Goo.gl, the statistics of these shortlinks are public. To learn how many clicks a Bit.ly or Goo.gl link has generated you simply add a “+” sign at the end of the link.

Take for example this Bit.ly link:

http://bit.ly/eDg93G

By clicking on the link you will be directed to the place on the web I want you to go. But when you simply copy and paste the link in your browser and add the “+” sign like this:

http://bit.ly/eDg93G+

You will discover how many times my link has been clicked, how many people put my shortlink on Facebook, shared it on Facebook or tweeted about it. You often even see your own contribution of total Bit.ly links linking to this page. This simple trick also works using Goo.gl.

From now on you will never wonder about the clicks a Bit.ly or Goo.gl shortlink has generated. You will know how you are doing in comparison to your competitors and if you need to step up your game. So start checking those stats of useful social media CTR information!