I Look Forward To

Why terror has won the war on America, and not the other way around.

2011-05-03T22:15:19-07:00

I’m temporarily breaking off my blog-hiatus to say this:

Although this is ordinarily a blog about the future, I today want to step out of that realm and use this forum to discuss a topic that is on everybody’s mind.

An unarmed man and his son were executed without a trial, on Monday. His house was invaded in the morning hours by men armed with automatic weapons. They killed the father and the son, and shot his wife, who was trying to protect her husband, in the leg. The armed men then left with the body and eventually dropped it into the ocean. Upon learning this news, a whole country joined in on an unbridled celebration.

Way to earn that Nobel Peace Prize, Obama.

The day America celebrated murder, was the day Bin Laden won. It took him more than a decade, and it cost him his life, but he did not mind that. Martyrdom was what he always wanted anyway. This guy lived to die.

Osama won. He never said he wanted to kill all Americans. He wanted America to bankrupt itself, which it has done, economically and morally.

The assassination, rather than capture and trial (as is customary in free countries ruled by law), combined with the ensuing gloat-fest on the streets of America, is an insult to the values this country pretends to defend.

In one sweeping motion, the US simultaneously infringed on Pakistan’s sovereignty, violated its own and international law, the human rights and a plethora of treaties and conventions to which the country subscribes.

Osama bin Laden should have received due process, not for his sake, but for America’s. Instead, the US is perpetuating a cycle of hate, and Americans are becoming what they claim to detest. Do you remember seeing Iranians on TV celebrating in the streets after 9/11? I bet that made you pretty angry.

How quickly we forget when the shoe is on the other foot.

The assassination was celebrated across the nation as the country’s proudest moment since 9/11. It’s not a good sign if America's greatest achievement in the last ten years is that it has shot someone in the head.

Everyone of course remembers the tragic events of September 11th. 10 years, trillions of tax dollars and 6,000 servicemen later, America killed one guy. Bravo.

So now what? Did we win the war on terror? Will they close Guantanamo? Will they leave Afghanistan? Will Al-Qaeda say “Well, I guess they won” and go home? Of course not. I'd be glad to celebrate the death of terrorism, but not the death of one man. It’s funny how America thinks it can measure its safety in corpses. It’s time the US asks itself what motivated all this terrorism in the first place.

Executing people without giving them a fair trial? I used to think that was a characteristic of despots like Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong Il and Stalin.

It doesn't matter how many times you say God bless America. Murder is still murder.

5 Life Logging Devices – No Moment Left Uncaptured

2011-04-09T14:21:39-07:00

As consumer electronics prices continue their steady decline, we see the contours of a future in which our entire lives can be easily and cheaply recorded for posterity: Where you left your keys, who said what in that argument and how many cups of coffee you had in the last month are all things we’ll be able to access easily. Here is an overview of where life-logging technology is today, and where it’s taking us next.

What is life logging?

Essentially, by life logging we mean the perpetual recording and documentation of your day-to-day life through the use of electronic devices. Primitive forms of life logging are already quite prevalent, thanks to widespread use of mobile phones with video/photo cameras, but the near future promises cheap and convenient methods of capturing your entire life, second by second.

Life logging devices of today

NYU professor Wafaa Bilal is a pioneer in life logging and has taken the drastic measure of surgically implanting a camera in the back of his head, which takes a photo a minute and uploads these automatically to his website. In addition, his whereabouts at any given time are displayed on a Google map. Although this particular manner of life logging is unlikely to become a mainstream trend, it is a good example of how recordings could be stored and used online.

Liquid Image has developed life logging goggles which let you record in HD with a camera embedded directly in the frame. Extreme sport enthusiasts have embraced this new technology which allows them to record their experiences, 32 gigabytes at a time. See the video below for an example.

The Ucorder is a small camera you can wear around your neck or snap onto your clothing which takes photos every few seconds. Unfortunately, you have to upload these pictures yourself, as there is no WiFi possibility.

The Revue from Vicon takes photos up to every thirty seconds and even has a temperature and light sensor, as well as a motion detector, so that it knows when you’ve stepped into a new environment and are seeing new people(which triggers a flash).

Polaroid and Lady Gaga recently came together to reveal their GL20 camera specs, which have small screens and a camera embedded in the glasses. The GL20 uses Bluetooth to upload recordings to your PC.

Where do we go from here?

For life logging to be worth the trouble, these devices will need a WiFi connection so that you don’t have to upload and store it yourself, but rather have it done automatically. Images or videos would likely be transmitted without your involvement to an online image bank where you can access these records at your discretion.

Sorting technology must also improve. Recording and uploading is relatively uncomplicated. It is the sifting through millions of photos to find that particular person or that particular conversation in a user friendly and fast way that will be the real challenge. Software for sorting out and digging through life logs are improving because we already have sophisticated voice recognition and speech to text software which will eventually allow us to transcribe conversations and store them word for word.

10-15 years from now, cameras with built in WiFi will fit in contact lenses making life logging extremely convenient.

Cause for caution

Naturally, there is always a risk of someone using the stored records of your life against you, for reasons such as identity theft, blackmail or even indictments. We’ll each be responsible for what we record and how or if we choose to store it. But this is true for your online photos or your email account even today, and most people seem undeterred by it.

What will it take for you to start life logging? Or are you too concerned about privacy issues to consider it at all? Leave a comment below.

Can we end war by 2050? - A discussion with Matt Ridley and Phil Bowermaster

2011-03-18T13:34:44-07:00

Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the number of armed conflicts around the world has been steadily declining, and continues to do so. Is warfare really part of human nature or will it vanish in the future because circumstances allow it? Author Matt Ridley and Phil Bowermaster elaborate.

The number of major armed conflicts (more than 1000 casualties annually) decreased from 33 in 1991 to 19 in 2003. Still, the vast majority of people polled think of war as an inevitability. But is it? Research with chimpanzees suggests that given the right conditions, such as sufficient fuel and food, war may become a thing of the past.

Matt Ridley is the author of The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, a tremedously inspiring book that I've discussed previously. Essentially, Ridley argues that things are getting better all the time; Humanity, despite the hardships and setbacks to which it is subjected, is following a millennia-long trend toward an increasingly high standard of living, thanks to the virtues of free exchange. Hunger, poverty and mortality, to mention a few, are all declining globally, and we have every reason to be optimistic about the future.

I asked Matt and Phil Bowermaster of the Speculist (who is such a staunch supporter of the book's ideas that he's created a Facebook group to get 1000 people to read it) whether they thought unparalleled global GDP growth coupled with proliferation of economic interdependence and democracy will end major war and armed conflict once and for all sometime before or around the middle of the century.

Here are their answers.

Matt Ridley said:

No. I state in the book that I think it very unlikely that war will go extinct. Human nature will see to that. However, it is true that the 2000s were the decade with the lowest number of war deaths since 1945 (according to Steven Pinker). I do expect the decline of violence and war to continue. War will be rare but not absent.

Phil Bowermaster said:

I don't know that superabundance will end war, but the Singularity might. A greater than human intelligence might FORCE us to behave ourselves. More organically, if enough of us got smart enough we might start figuring out non-deadly ways of settling conflicts. By and large we're better at that now than we have been in the past. Maybe the trend will continue!

I also asked Matt a different question: Many have a dystopian view of the future which may include fearful scenarios of global warming, nuclear war, Malthusian problems and even apocalypses (as prophesized by the Mayans); What is so comfortable about pessimism?

His answer:

It's a good question to which I do not have a good answer. When I give
talks people often react with dismay at my taking away the comfort of
their pessimism. I just don't see why. But here are some thoughts.

1. The past is certain and it turned out well for those of us who made it this far: We are the lucky ones. But the future is uncertain and we may not be the lucky ones. Therefore we should worry.

2. Back in the Pleistocene hunter-gatherers survived if they worried and not if they complacently expected everything to turn out fine.

3. People mistake my message -- the future is likely to be better than the past -- for a Panglossian one -- the present is as good as it can get. Actually, though, it is the eco-pessimists, especially with the
precautionary principle, who take this line: don't let's do experiments to find insect-resistant crops, we cannot improve on chemical pesticides.

4. Gloom is wise and is good box office. I just don't know why.

Matt Ridley is probably onto something with his evolutionaty explanation of this perplexing facet of human nature.

I argue below that there are a number of positive trends which may alone or in concert end warfare. In fact I think it likely that world will have seen its last major war by 2030, and you can quote me on that.

Here are the trends I think will contribute to permanently ending major armed conflict:

1. Economic interdependence

China would not go to war on the US or vice versa. It would be a self-destructive move, economically crippling to both countries. The EU, initially just an economic cooperation, has become a guarantor of peace between its member countries due to the inextricability of their trade networks and supply chains. War can be avoided if the costs of waging it outweigh the benefits. When countries rely on each other for both supply and demand, military aggression rarely makes economic sense. Furthering the interconnectivity of the global economy, although not without risk, is an essential step on the way to a war-free world.

2. Spread of democracy

The ongoing proliferation of democracy is a vital part of war reduction: Whereas autocrats need no mandate from their peoples, and engage in armed conflict at their own discretion, electorates are generally reluctant to wage war, particularly against other democracies. How fortunate, then, that dictatorship is going out of style in favor of democracy; some time around 1989, the world went from being mostly ruled by dictators to being mostly ruled by citizens.

Since then, democracies have become tremendously popular, and now greatly outnumber autocracies. Just in recent months, a wave of civic revolts have helped expel heavy-handed despots in Northern Africa, and dictators across the Arab world are shaking in their pants. We can only hope that these newly liberated countries find a path to viable democracy. If they do, they will play an important part in reducing armed conflict in a region far too often plagued by it.

3. Multilateral cooperation

The UN has been fighting an uphill battle from the get-go; convincing sovereign states to relenquish power is no picnic. Nonetheless, and to the surprise of many, the institution has had significant success in war prevention by providing an open forum where heads of state are held accountable for their decisions.

In the near future, we will unqestionably experience som friction when the security council is forced to consider the adoption of new members and make room for young superpowers. Geopolitically speaking, we'll see a broader distribution of economic (and by extension military) clout as emerging powerhouses (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia etc.) claim their place in the global hegemony. This more balanced division of power is assuring to peace lovers because it would be very difficult for any one country to engage in warfare without the consent of the others (such as the US was able to do in 2003).

4. Cultural unification through globalization

The world is increasingly becoming one culture (with great local variations) through technology, media, business etc. Understanding of and aquaintance with others' values have resulted from increased transcultural interaction in many parts of the world. War is easier when the enemy can be dehumanized, such as through xenophobia-enabled propaganda, but it only works if people of one culture are not familiar with people from the other. During the Vietnam war,the vietnamese were often portrayed in the US not as fellow human beings but rather as faceless, uncultivated and uniform communists.

This facilitates an "Us vs. Them" mentality, for which we have a sociobiological propensity. In the time of hunter/gatherers, distinguishing between in-group and out-group members was vital to survival. As humans progressed to trade and exchange between tribes (and were exposed to each other) they realized that they had a lot of commonalities, and over time, the in-group was expanded to include trading partners.

These days, of course, the in-group has been expanded to include whole countries (and sometimes continents). The next sea change will be the expansion of the in-group to include all of humanity, which globalization could bring about in time. In other words, we may soon all be part of the same tribe, which unquestionably has a preventative effect on armed conflict.

5. Internet and transparency

We're seeing increased documentation and accountability due to transparency enabled by the Internet: War is ugly, on both sides, and its true colors become more apparent thanks to the web. People take pictures and videos and share online their testimony to atrocities commited worldwide, and Wikileaks releases classified documents.

It's becoming harder to get away with human rights abuses and to escape responsiblity for poor decisions. Gone are the days when sinister men in suits made the calls behind closed doors and with impunity; these days, you can be sure the story will get out somehow. Increased transparency will put more pressure on decision makers to come to more morally defensible decisions, among which would be the evasion of war.

6. GDP growth and eventual resource abundance

Scarcity is the mother of war. If we can end scarcity, we’ll nip the war problem in the bud. In a world of abundant resources, nobody has an incentive to aggress.

War mongering is often a characteristic of poor countries with high inequality, particulalry true for civil wars. People who are doing well economically (i.e. do not want for basic needs) are rarely, if ever, in the mood for the major upheavals war can bring about. If global per capita GDP keeps increasing at the rate it has for the last 50 years, the world will have virtually no absolute poverty by 2060. In such a scenario, war would be an unusual occurence.

Some will say that humans, no matter how much they have, will always want more, and will go to war if necessary to take from others what they do not themselves have. Although ostensibly war can be motivated by other factors such as religious or ethnic differences, it usually boils down to a conflict between haves and have-nots.

This is where science, and the prospects of a technological singularity, come in. Human control of matter could end wars well before it would otherwise happen.Through science we have the potential to bypass all the other steps on the ladder to global peace. Developments in nanoengineering, stem cell cultivation, 3D printing and many other realms of technology could render us independent of mother earth's resources. If there's a machine in every home that downloads and prints food, or fuel sources that cost next to nothing, war is easily avoided.

What factors do you think could end wars? Leave a comment below.

A bonus for my readers

On a final note,this week I would like to mention a brilliant new initiative called Beansight, a startup by Cyril Dorsaz and his colleagues in Paris. The idea behind Beansight is that collective predictions have a far higher accuracy than individual ones, even those made by experts. Users of Beansight can make their own predictions for the future as well vote yes or no to agree or disagree with the predictions of other users. The higher the number of people who vote on a prediction, the more accurate it becomes.

Beansight is currently in private Beta, but Cyril is a cool guy and, appreciating the collective intelligence of the readers of I Look Forward To, he has been so kind as to grant us access to the website. You can sign up by following this link: http://www.beansight.com/signup?promocode=ilookforwardto

That's all for this week, folks! I wrote this during severe turbulence som 30,000 feet above the Caribbean Sea (wow, what a time we live in!), so please forgive any typos.

Four Brain Controlled Devices – The Coming Mind Power Wave

2011-03-02T19:43:50-08:00

In the near future, you'll be able to drive a car, send email or play video games using nothing but your thoughts. The number of doors which a well functioning brain-computer interface could open are nearly limitless. Here is but a small selection of areas where it is being applied right now.

Car driven by brainwaves alone in Berlin

EEG sensors measure electric pulses in the brain and a computer learns to associate five different neural patterns with left, right, accelerate, decelerate and stop. The car drives autonomously, but goes where you think.

Brain controlled video games and operative systems

Brain control will likely make its first public appearance in game consoles. We're already seeing EEG headsets for gaming. Remember when you played FIFA and the player didn’t shoot where you meant for him to aim? Problem solved. The EEG will recognize your proper intention, your fury with the referee, even your emotions when you score.

Non-verbal human communication (synthetic telepathy)

Envision a world in which you can write an email and send it to the proper email address using only your thoughts to dictate. Although at least 15 years away this particular technology has the potential to transform the entire realm of communication in ways so numerous and fundamental that I will not get into it here. But I urge you to read about it here.

Brain controlled artificial limbs

DARPA’s brain controlled mechanical arm has begun clinical trials with humans and the FDA has fast tracked the device for approval which means it could be on the market in four years. Neurosurgeons implant a small chip into the patient’s brain which then sends signals directly to the arm to make it move. The arm can rotate 22 degrees and each finger can move separately.

In which ways do you think a brain-computer interface will be applied to change our lives in the future? I’d really like to hear from you on this.

3D Printing’s Near Future – Download New Shoes and Print them out at Home

2011-02-17T19:49:20-08:00

3D printing technology is maturing and on the verge of radically changing the rules for what, how and where everything is made, as manufacturing literally comes home.

How 3D printing works

Let’s say you’re an engineer. You’ve made a design of a bridge with your CAD software, and you wonder how it will hold up in real life. There was a time when you’d have to cut and glue and paint your own prototypes, but with a 3D printer you just click a button and wait.

Picture an inkjet that not only moves horizontally, but also vertically. The 3D printer builds layer upon layer of, for instance, plaster dust, and fuses it together with a laser or tiny drops of glue. Gradually, the object takes form, and after a couple of hours you’ve got yourself a prototype.

3D printing emerging in all areas of manufacturing

Engineers and architects have been 3D printing prototypes for a decade already, but are now beginning to work with metals as well to print the final product. Medical companies are printing medical implants with properties that closely resemble bone, EADS is printing airplane parts in Europe with titanium powder fused together by lasers, and dentists print dental crowns customized to fit the patient. 3D printers are making lampshades, racing-car parts, individualized football boots, batteries and customized mobile phones. Peter Schmidt at MIT has even printed a grandfather clock that works.

Shapeways allows you to upload your own designs to their websites, upon which they print your product and ship it to you.

How 3D printing will transform society over the next 15 years

Legerwood consultants predict that production times for most 3D printers will fall by up to 80% in the next five years alone. Prices are falling dramatically each year, and a typical 3D printer now costs less than a laser printer did in 1985.

We’ll see a surge of new products, as the cost and risk of producing a working prototype becomes negligible. In other words, in the not-so-distant future, we’ll all be able to cheaply and quickly make prototypes of our ideas, without having to sell thousands of units to recover the initial investment.

When fixed costs become insignificant, we’ll enter a new era in which economies of scale won’t matter, because a mass manufactured product might not be what’s in demand. Customization will play a key role in future manufacturing; why should you wear the same gloves as thousands of others when you could come up with your own glove design and print it at home?

Anything can be made, and we’re learning how to 3D print with all kinds of materials. You’ll be able to purchase a bicycle online, customize it, download it, and produce it at your local 3D printer’s.

Factories will increasingly replace conventional machinery with large 3D printers that can produce anything they’re asked, around the clock, unattended, tying up considerably less money in raw materials (up to 90% less) and tooling costs. Already, R&D teams around the world are flirting with the idea of additively manufacturing entire cars from scratch in large scale 3D printers. In theory, there is no limit to the size of a 3D print, save for the size of the printer.

3D printers will have a vast amount of applications we cannot begin to imagine today. Eventually, prices will have fallen enough for every city and town to have public 3D fabricators, and some years later, every home. Purchase, download and print, whatever you need. This will dramatically reduce the prices of a plethora of products, many of which do not yet exist.

Beyond doubt, a momentous decentralization of the manufacturing sector will ensue, with production increasingly moving out of the factory and into the home.

Food in the future – Cleaner, cheaper and healthier

2011-02-12T13:47:07-08:00

Nutrition will take on new dimensions in the future, that much is certain. But in which particular ways will we change what and how we eat? Here’s a quick look at some ideas that may revolutionize food, if we’ll only let them.

How food can become cleaner, healthier and cheaper

Some very exciting developments are underway in the realm of hydroponic agriculture, i.e. the growing of crops in fertilized water without the use of soil. Grown in ultra clean, climate regulated environments inside warehouses or skyscrapers, crops could be spared both natural contamination (insects, infections etc) and pesticides, to make them entirely clean, even more so than organic crops. Plants could be easily monitored for defects inside 30 story greenhouses that recycle all their air and water.

It would also be possible to genetically enhance fruits, vegetables and even meat to have higher nutritional values with, for instance, less fat and more protein, by changing the DNA makeup.

The surest way to bring down the price of any product is to make a lot more of it. This is true of food as well. In the near future we’ll see several technological breakthroughs that could each dramatically increase productivity in the agricultural sector to bring down prices. Gene modification, for instance, will allow us to design crops that grow faster and larger than ordinary crops.

If we grow crops hydroponically in large scale factories, not only would we see economies of scale bring the price down, but also an immense productivity gain from conventional farming (which are unable to produce year-round).

Another important step in lowering the price of food is removing trade barriers and farming subsidies in the industrialized world. Millions of farmers in the third world are excluded from world markets, and their efforts to sell their low-priced commodities are stifled by protectionist measures to keep western farmers on life support. This is perhaps the single largest obstacle to poverty reduction today, but also a relatively simple one to surmount if efforts can be concerted.

Growing the meat, sparing the animals.

In vitro meat, in vitro fish, in vitro fowl. Science is all over it, and predictors say it will eventually sell for half the price of the real animal product. In vitro meat will taste and feel entirely genuine, and farms that raise, for instance, live stock will find profitability an elusive dream in competition with modern skyfarms.

Many will no doubt be hesitant to eat artificial meat, but these should come around once they learn that IVM is 100% muscle, and that it contains no hormones, salmonella, e.coli, or antibiotics. It’s also boneless. So that’s healthier and ethically palatable meat.

In the same way as crops, in vitro meat can be grown in urban multistory greenhouses. 20 years from now, I see urban dwellers buying fresh meat, fruits and vegetables from their neighborhood farmscraper, all devoid of infections, saturated fat and chemicals.

Rocky road to Food Heaven

JFK said that “Progress is a nice word, but change is its motivator. And change has its enemies.” I’ve just mentioned a few of the tremendously effective tools we’ll have at our disposition to improve all aspects of food, from its price to its quality. But it’s not as if everyone’s equally enchanted by these newfound tools or the transformations they promise.

In particular, gene modification technologies have met with fierce opposition in recent years. There’s certainly reason for precautions in altering genetic code, but the panic has proven greatly exaggerated. There are unquestionably safe methods to genetically enhance food. Legal and political hurdles will decelerate progress, but we owe it to every starving human to overcome them. And while we should no doubt be careful in commercializing this new technology, we should be extra careful in considering the risk of not releasing it at all.

Stop fearing a Malthusian problem, economics has solved it.

Don’t worry: Even with a world population of 9 billion in 2050, we’ll be able to feed everyone. In any case world hunger is likely to be extinguished well before that time as a consequence of a) technological progress and productivity gains and b) falling birth rates.

China to have the world's largest megacity (42 million inhabitants) in 2017.

2011-01-30T15:03:47-08:00

City planners in southern China have laid out an ambitious plan to merge together the nine cities that lie around the Pearl River Delta.

The "Turn The Pearl River Delta Into One" scheme will create a 16,000 sq mile urban area that is 26 times larger geographically than Greater London, or twice the size of Wales, over the course of the next 6 years.

Things happen fast in China.

Read on.

The Eradication of Illness – 10 Diseases We’ll Cure in the Next 20 Years

2011-01-08T04:54:59-08:00

Together with David Pearce and Phil Bowermaster I’ve been brainstorming about which diseases medicine looks set to tackle over the coming two decades. Thanks to gene manipulation, stem cell research and nanotechnology, many of today’s most murderous maladies face brutal annihilation at the merciless hands of medical science.

Three nascent sciences, gene therapy, stem cell use and nanotechnology, will come of age in the next 20 years. Each of these sciences are in their own right pregnant with the seeds of revolutionary change, and when combined they hold the promise of curing nearly every thinkable illness. Whereas these treatments are experimental and expensive today, 20 years from now, they will be common and affordable.

It’s difficult to say exactly how these technologies will converge, but combinations of any or all of these could become panaceas before long.

Stem cells

Stem cells are like blank slates. They’re cells that don’t yet have an identity, a role. But we can assign roles to stem cells, and tell them whether to become a skin cell, a brain cell or a part of any organ we want. Granted, we’re only beginning to learn how to do this, but we’ve already grown functioning livers, bladders, ears, and lungs in laboratories by dripping little drops of stem cells onto molds. So stem cells can be used to repair damages in organs and tissue, or to simply replace faltering organs altogether. They will soon obviate the need for organ donors. We’ll instead have organ factories that make hearts, eyes, kidneys; you name it, on demand and off the shelf. Read about one man who was cured of AIDS using stem cells.

Nanotechnology

Ray Kurzweil has said that computers that used to take up a whole room in the sixties, now fit in his pocket, and that these same computing powers will fit inside a blood cell within a generation. When processors are so small that they can be injected into your blood stream, you can send in billions of them to repair and regenerate tissue as it degenerates, enabling a continuous rejuvenation of all organs. If a malignant tumor is discovered somewhere in your body, a billion strong army of well trained nanobots could be deployed to defeat it. Nanotech will also enable the implantation of microchips in our brains, where they have already cured depression and anxiety disorders in test patients.

Gene therapy

And then, of course, there is gene manipulation, which can take both a proactive and a preventative nature. Through accurate alterations in a fetus’ or baby’s genetic makeup, hereditary diseases would be precluded from ever causing any trouble in the first place. If, upon analyzing your child’s DNA, your doctor finds it predisposed to Down’s syndrome, bipolar disorder, or ADHD for instance, he will have the ability to change or fix the relevant chromosomes. One man was cured of a blood disease through gene therapy.

Which diseases will we cure?

I asked Phil and David to help me with this.

Phil Bowermaster of The Speculist says:

I'm on the record saying that I think we're within a couple of decades from most forms of cancer being, at worst, something people can live with the way they currently live with being diabetic.

So let me expand the list. Diseases that in 20 years will either be eliminated or that people will be able to live with via treatments:

1. Most forms of cancer.
2. Heart disease.
3. Arthritis.
4. Alzheimer’s.
5. Parkinson’s.

Diabetes may be cured by then, too, rather than just being treatable. Any progress in treatment of degenerative diseases such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s will lead to a huge demand for faster progress.

This is far reaching, but if correct we will have made tremendous progress in 20 years towards life extension simply by treating these diseases.

David Pearce of Abolitionist.com says:

I think we’ll cure/manage depression, anxiety disorders, alcoholism, Alzheimer’s disease, and Parkinson's disease.

To these I would like to add blindness, multiple sclerosis, most kinds of paralysis.

So put together we have the following list:

1.Most cancers

2.Alzheimer’s

3.Parkinson’s

4.Blindness

5.Multiple Sclerosis

6.Alcoholism

7.Depression

8.Anxiety disorders

9.Heart disease

10.Arthritis

Many will also rejoice to hear that the continuing developments in stem cell research will likely cure baldness, although that is not, strictly speaking, a disease.

This list is by no means exhaustive, and when looking back in 2030, it could be much, much longer.

Obstacles

Social Darwinists, religious fundamentalists and other skeptics towards game changing science will do their part to decelerate this progress, as they did with in vitro fertilization (which continues to give the joy of parenthood to millions), gene modified crops (which continues make food increasingly affordable to the hungry masses without the prophesized side effects) and on countless other accounts.

But in the end, reason and compassion will prevail, as it always does in time.

Disease eradication goes hand in hand with prosperity. Many poverty stricken populations, notably in sub-Saharan Africa, suffer needless deaths from Malaria, AIDS and Polio. Those are all perfectly treatable diseases (indeed most HIV positive patients from the industrialized world are now able to live full lives), yet, without the most important prerequisite for medical progress – wealth – many Africans remain defenseless in the face of for instance Malaria. They can’t afford to keep their cattle in barns, they have no houses with sealed windows behind which to hide at dusk and dawn, and they can’t afford treatment once infected. Africa will be the last continent to reach economic prosperity, and subsequently the last to enjoy the health benefits that accompany affluence.

But that day too will come - in our lifetime.

A Peek into the Future of the TV – Flexible “Roll-up” Screens, Holograms and Contact Lens TVs

2010-12-28T10:14:09-08:00

As with almost every other piece of consumer electronics, the television technology is on an accelerating track of development. The way we watch TV and movies will change beyond recognition in the coming decade. Here are some of the breakthroughs in store.

Contact lens TV – Time frame: within 10 years

Lean back on the couch and direct your eyes anywhere you’d like, the picture frame will follow. This will be a truly immersive viewer experience, and you can run alongside James Bond or Lionel Messi. Change channels with voice command or hand movements, and have earpieces on for sound. Need to keep an eye on your toddler while watching? No problem, you can switch between single or double eyed view. There is also talk of an “emotional viewing” technology on the horizon, with a digital “tattoo” fitted to your body that allows you to feel the fear, excitement or whatever emotion the movie’s protagonist is feeling. This is a step further, though, and will arrive later than lens TVs.

Ultra thin rollable OLED displays – Time Frame: 5 years

Sony has been developing screens so thin they can actually be rolled up. Below is a video about their 14 inch Organic Light Emitting Diode display, OLED for short. This is truly spellbinding. What can't the Japanese do? You could just roll up your 32 inch TV and bring it with you in your bag. Then roll it back out at a friend's house, on a plane or in your tent and watch your favorite movies.

Imagine having a whole room wallpapered with this material. Then we could really start talking about immersion movie experiences. You could cover your car in this material and sell advertising clips. Entire buildings, even cities, could be covered in OLED. When this eventually becomes inexpensive, I see no reason why news papers and magazines should waste paper or ink, but rather sell a single, one-time, rolled-up sheet with "turn the page" buttons.

Holographic Viewing – Time Frame: 10-15 years

In their bid for the 2022 World Cup, Japan promised to display 3D holograms of all the games, projected live and real-time onto some 400 stadiums worldwide. Russia, and not Japan, was awarded the rights to host the games, but the technology is still under development. This means that you could go to your local football stadium in, say, Turkey and see Barcelona play Madrid, even though the game is actually taking place in Spain. 200 HD cameras around the pitch in would ensure an experience that'll make you feel like you're there. This gets me really excited.

Eventually, we’ll have holodecks on our living room tables, and families can gather around them to watch movies, matches and TV shows in 3D.

Ebook Launch: 9 Things to Look Forward to in 2030

2010-12-16T04:04:14-08:00

Friends,

Today I am pleased to launch my new e-guide 9 Things to Look Forward to in 2030. I am very excited to share this with you - free of charge.

What will your life be like in 2030? Will you fly or drive to work? Will you take holidays in space? How long will you live? How will cities look? Is your girlfriend made in a factory?

The book introduces nine aspects of life in 2030 that we can look forward to, as well as interviews with Aubrey de Grey, George Dvorsky, Michael Anissimov, Phil Bowermaster, Aaron Saenz and David Pearce.

The guide also includes two bonus chapters:

The Single Most Significant Technological Development in the Next 20 Years

and

8 Ways in Which the Human Condition is Improving.

To get your copy of 9 Things to Look Forward to in 2030, simply fill in your email address here and I'll send it to you.

I hope you enjoy this, and feel free to share it with anyone.

Best wishes,

Christian