<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<?xml-stylesheet type="text/xsl" media="screen" href="/~d/styles/rss2full.xsl"?><?xml-stylesheet type="text/css" media="screen" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~d/styles/itemcontent.css"?><rss xmlns:geo="http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos#" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" xmlns:yt="http://gdata.youtube.com/schemas/2007" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0">
   <channel>
      <title>INI Recent Publications</title>
      <description>Pipes Output</description>
      <link>http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.info?_id=61f880f191871740b3bc3aa5be8c35b0</link>
      <atom:link rel="next" href="http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.run?_id=61f880f191871740b3bc3aa5be8c35b0&amp;_render=rss&amp;page=2" />
      <pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 00:27:13 +0000</pubDate>
      <generator>http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/</generator>
      <atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/INIRecentPubs" /><feedburner:info xmlns:feedburner="http://rssnamespace.org/feedburner/ext/1.0" uri="inirecentpubs" /><atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="hub" href="http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/" /><item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | The Great Sino-Indian Alpine Tent Party of 2013</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/05/the-great-sino-indian-alpine-tent-party.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;My article on the Chinese border incursion at Depsang appeared in&lt;/em&gt; Foreign Policy &lt;em&gt;on May 8, 2013. An excerpt is included below. The full article can be accessed &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/08/china_india_border_dispute_tent_party_2013?page=full"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The incursion will undoubtedly provoke greater skepticism in India about China's peaceful intentions. In recent years, an aggressive China has had a poor record of managing its disputed borders. Unlike Japan or the many Southeast Asian countries, India has been reluctant to identify itself as a U.S. partner in any attempt to hedge against China's rise. Yet repeated Chinese provocations, as well as concerns about India's ability to compete economically and militarily with China, might force India's policymakers to cooperate more closely with other states that share its concerns. Moreover, India's accelerating defense modernization might produce additional confrontational Chinese responses, perpetuating a classic &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_dilemma"&gt;security dilemma&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Although the incursion may not have had domestic political implications in Beijing, it does raise worrying questions about China's ability to destabilize the region. For example, it is plausible that the PLA's advancement was the product of a simple civil-military disconnect. This is a problem that bedevils every government with a strong military, but a more transparent system of governance -- such as in the United States or, for that matter, India -- would have certainly limited the damage.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The question of transparency also cuts the other way. China cannot expect other governments to muzzle their media as it does. For example, a recent editorial in the Chinese newspaper &lt;i&gt;Global Times&lt;/i&gt; about the incursion &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/778692.shtml"&gt;blamed&lt;/a&gt;the Indian government for "indulg[ing] Indian media habits," fomenting "border hysteria," and writing "nonsense." Instead of blaming the foreign press, it would benefit Beijing to become better attuned to public sentiment in countries like India -- not exactly its strong suit. As Harvard University professor Joseph Nye recently &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/29/what_china_and_russia_don_t_get_about_soft_power"&gt;noted&lt;/a&gt;, this is not the kind of problem that can be solved with more Confucius Institutes. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As China's new leadership continues to consolidate itself, its recent missteps with India -- coming at an otherwise opportune time in bilateral relations -- ought to provoke some introspection. Many in India, as in other Asian states, are willing to cooperate with an increasingly affluent China. But actions like April's incursion will only give more weight to the perspectives represented in an influential 2012 Indian foreign-policy paper that &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.cprindia.org/sites/default/files/NonAlignment%202.0_1.pdf"&gt;noted&lt;/a&gt;: "The better way of responding to limited land-grabs by China" is to respond in kind. Surely that's not an outcome China's leaders want.&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-2953595567218323752</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 May 2013 14:10:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Boston Bombing</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/04/boston-bombing.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;My article on the aftermath of the Boston marathon bombing appeared in the&lt;/em&gt; Economic Times &lt;em&gt;on April 20, 2013. An excerpt is included below and the full text can be found &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-04-20/news/38693235_1_chechen-boston-marathon-gunfire"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;Terrorism is at its most disturbing when it hits you close to home. For residents of many Indian cities, the sense of vulnerability that accompanies random violence was at its most acute between 2001 and 2008, when Delhi, Mumbai, Varanasi, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, and Bangalore, among many other places, were hit by severe attacks, on multiple occasions in the cases of Delhi and Mumbai. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;More than the attacks on government targets, those on public spaces - markets, crowded streets - underscored the randomness of the violence perpetuated by terrorists. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;The otherwise sleepy suburban town of Waltham, Massachusetts, where I now live, is in lockdown as I write. News reports and local law enforcement authorities say that a 19-year-old ethnic Chechen named Dzhokhar Tsarnaev is still at large, last seen in the neighbouring community of Watertown...&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;...Information about the suspects, official law enforcement communications, and public service announcements over the past few hours all stand in stark contrast to the chaos that often follows terrorist attacks in India, most notoriously after the 2008 attacks in Mumbai. More details about this episode will inevitably emerge, including the probable motives of the attackers.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt; There will inevitably be commentary - much of it ill-informed - about their ethnic or religious impulses, the fact that they were at least partially 'home-grown', and parallels with other incidents of terrorism in recent years. Regardless, this incident offers some important lessons for how we can all be better prepared for acts of random violence.&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-3499794002386213133</guid>
         <pubDate>Sat, 20 Apr 2013 14:14:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Engaging with Developing Democratic Powers Should Be a Priority</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/03/engaging-with-developing-democratic.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;An essay of mine appeared in the Brussels Forum Views 2013 compilation, which can be accessed &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://brussels.gmfus.org/files/2013/03/BF2013Papers_web.pdf"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;. An excerpt is included below.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;The pessimism that has marked public discourse in the United States and &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;Europe over the past five years obscures two overwhelmingly positive trends that now characterize the international system.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;The first is that liberal democracy can no longer be considered an exclusively Western value. Seventy percent of those living in electoral democracies today reside in the developing world (almost 60 percent in nine large countries: India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico, the Philippines, Turkey, Thailand, and South Africa). Fifty-two states represented at last year’s Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Tehran — an event dismissed by many commentators in the West as a congregation of dictators — had held free and fair elections. Most of these countries adopted democracy of their own accord, not because of its imposition by the West. In fact, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;democracy has flourished in many of these states despite tacit or active support for authoritarian regimes by the United States and its allies.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;font-size:small;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div align="LEFT"&gt;The second welcome trend is that developing democracies are delivering. Emerging democratic powers are growing rapidly, creating new markets, improving productivity, and pulling tens of millions of their citizens out of poverty each year. Together, the economies of the nine largest developing democracies have grown an astonishing 330 percent in dollar terms over the past decade, comparing favorably to 174 percent for the eurozone and 147 percent for the United States.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align="LEFT"&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align="LEFT"&gt;At a time of austerity, it is perhaps natural that the transatlantic allies should want to focus on nation-building at home and pressing global challenges, such as the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and the rise of China. To do this, however, would be short-sighted. The constructive engagement of key emerging democracies not only has the potential to revitalize the U.S. and European economies by expanding market access and helping to preserve an open trading system, it may also be the only way to address the structural threats to Western interests, values, and institutions posed by political outliers.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-2541017309610397162</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 20 Mar 2013 22:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | The Huge Costs of India's Discrimination Against Women</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/03/the-huge-costs-of-indias-discrimination.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;My article on gender inequality in India appeared in&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/the-huge-cost-of-indias-discrimination-against-women/274115/"&gt;The Atlantic&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;em&gt;An excerpt is reproduced below. The full text can be accessed &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/the-huge-cost-of-indias-discrimination-against-women/274115/"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Imagine a country where the &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.forbes.com/profile/sonia-gandhi/"&gt;most powerful&lt;/a&gt; political figure,    &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/two-indian-women-in-forbes-billionaires-list-110031100161_1.html"&gt;        two billionaires    &lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/nation/didi-amma-behenji"&gt;three of the most dominant&lt;/a&gt; regional politicians, several    &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2012/06/27/economics-journal-can-indian-women-have-it-all/"&gt;prominent CEOs&lt;/a&gt;, and    &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-08-28/india/28188741_1_panchayat-seats-panchayat-election-reservation"&gt;        half of local government    &lt;/a&gt;    representatives are women. Now imagine that, in that same country, one-third of adult women are illiterate, spousal rape is not illegal, and sex-selective    abortion and female infanticide are still widely practiced.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;    It may be hard to reconcile these two realities, but modern India somehow manages to be, at the same time, the land of Indira Gandhi and Mother Theresa and of &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2012/June/Innocence-Lost-Indias-Children-Marrying-at-Age-8/"&gt;child brides&lt;/a&gt; and    &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/9108642/Indian-dowry-deaths-on-the-rise.html"&gt;dowry deaths&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;    The standing of women in Indian society received unprecedented national and international attention last year following the brutal gang rape and subsequent    death of a young woman in Delhi. The incident sparked widespread public protests in the Indian capital and gained further attention after one of the accused perpetrators was found hanged in jail on Monday. While the tragedy has led to some long-overdue reforms, it is far    &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/opinion/global/saying-yes-matters-as-much-as-no.html?pagewanted=all&amp;amp;_r=0"&gt;too early&lt;/a&gt; to    declare it a turning point for the fate of the majority of India's women.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;    There are, of course, strong normative and humanitarian reasons to guarantee full gender equality and sufficient legal protection for women in India, as    elsewhere. But the economic and political consequences - the material costs - of gender discrimination are often overlooked.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;    Consider this: India's &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS"&gt;female labor participation rate&lt;/a&gt; was just 29 percent in 2010, according to the International Labor Organization, representing a slight &lt;em&gt;decline&lt;/em&gt; over the previous two years. This decline can be    &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/developmentdialogue/entry/numbers"&gt;attributed&lt;/a&gt; to a number of factors, including increases in female    higher education, rising household incomes, erroneous data, and limited opportunity in sectors that traditionally employ women. Re-entering the workforce    after childbirth also remains difficult. India's profile nevertheless compares very unfavorably to the 68 percent female labor participation in China, and    among G20 economies, only Turkey (28 percent) and Saudi Arabia (17 percent) lag behind.&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-5818720565889283430</guid>
         <pubDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2013 21:58:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Gentle Giant</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/03/gentle-giant.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;b&gt;Why isn't India spending more on its military?&lt;/b&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;i&gt;My article on India's defence spending originally appeared on &lt;/i&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/06/gentle_giant_india_military"&gt;Foreign Policy&lt;/a&gt;&lt;i&gt;'s web site. Two excerpts are included below and the full text is accessible &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/06/gentle_giant_india_military"&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As late as 2000, India's spending on defense, at $15.9 billion, outstripped China's official military budget of $14.5 billion, although China's actual expenditure that year was estimated at three times that amount. The disparity has only increased with the growing resource gap between China and India. In its&amp;nbsp;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/defence-allocation-sees-a-marginal-rise/article4462398.ece" style="background-color:transparent;border-bottom-width:0px;border-color:initial;border-color:initial;border-left-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-top-width:0px;color:#003366;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-top:0px;outline-color:initial;outline-width:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:0px;text-decoration:none;"&gt;most recent budget&lt;/a&gt;, the Indian government's spending on defense stands at $37 billion (excluding military pensions), keeping it on track to be the fourth-largest defense spender by 2020, surpassing Britain, France, and Japan. But such expenditure increases have not even kept pace with the overall growth of India's economy, let alone the military modernization of its competitors. Defense now accounts for just 1.7 percent of India's GDP, which is less than in many European countries, and down from almost 3 percent in the late 1990s. And while&amp;nbsp;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-05/china-boosts-defense-spending-as-military-modernizes-its-arsenal.html" style="background-color:transparent;border-bottom-width:0px;border-color:initial;border-color:initial;border-left-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-top-width:0px;color:#003366;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-top:0px;outline-color:initial;outline-width:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:0px;text-decoration:none;"&gt;China's defense budget&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;this year is more than three times larger, its actual spending will undoubtedly be even higher. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As for the threat environment, the question is not whether India is able to compete man-for-man, dollar-for-dollar, and gun-for-gun with its principal adversaries, but whether it is in a position to deter their adventurism. Nuclear weapons have arguably played a stabilizing role in this regard: The prospect of India becoming embroiled in a conventional war with either China or Pakistan since its 1998 nuclear tests has become ever more remote. It also helps that India enjoys increasing numerical and technological superiority vis-à-vis Pakistan, although that has so far failed to completely deter terrorist attacks emanating from that country.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;China is another matter altogether, given its rapid rise and military modernization. Yet the last few years have seen the Indian military steadily rebalance toward its northeastern frontier. This shift has seen India redeploy its frontline combat aircraft to bases in the northeastern state of Assam,&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-17738633" style="background-color:transparent;border-bottom-width:0px;border-color:initial;border-color:initial;border-left-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-top-width:0px;color:#003366;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-top:0px;outline-color:initial;outline-width:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:0px;text-decoration:none;"&gt;increase&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;the range of its strategic missiles, and set up two new army divisions along the Chinese border. In 2010, India's national security advisor&amp;nbsp;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/DidIndiaChangeitsNuclearDoctrine_vnarang_010311" style="background-color:transparent;border-bottom-width:0px;border-color:initial;border-color:initial;border-left-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-top-width:0px;color:#003366;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-top:0px;outline-color:initial;outline-width:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:0px;text-decoration:none;"&gt;hinted&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;that the country was amending its no-first-use nuclear doctrine, a move widely interpreted as a signal aimed at China. And last month, India's defense ministry&amp;nbsp;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://expressindia.indianexpress.com/latest-news/Defence-Ministry-clears-new-corps-on-China-border/1068954/" style="background-color:transparent;border-bottom-width:0px;border-color:initial;border-color:initial;border-left-width:0px;border-right-width:0px;border-top-width:0px;color:#003366;font-size:14px;font-weight:bold;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;margin-right:0px;margin-top:0px;outline-color:initial;outline-width:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-top:0px;text-decoration:none;"&gt;approved&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;the creation of a mountain strike corps, an 89,000-strong force capable of offensive operations against Chinese territory.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While none of this seems to suggest that India is standing idly by in the face of China's military modernization, the release of the two countries' military budgets in such quick succession points to a fascinating divergence. If anything, it is New Delhi's Central Secretariat -- rather than Beijing's Zhongnanhai -- that appears to have taken to heart Deng Xiaoping's famous dictum: "Hide your strength, bide your time, and do what you can." Perhaps it is no surprise then that India, unlike the other Asian giant to its north, finds it unnecessary to constantly assuage its smaller neighbors about the veracity of its peaceful rise. &lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-7292194904502810551</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 06 Mar 2013 23:20:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Hagel in a Teacup</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/03/hagel-in-teacup.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;The following op-ed originally appeared in&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.indianexpress.com/news/hagel-in-a-teacup/1081883/0"&gt;The Indian Express&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;on March 2, 2013.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There are two narratives in Washington concerning India’s involvement in Afghanistan. According to the first, India is locked in a proxy conflict with Pakistan, supporting anti-Pakistan elements on both sides of the Durand Line. The logical conclusion for Americans who espouse this view is that a diminished Indian presence in Afghanistan would assuage Pakistan’s insecurities, generate trust and increase regional stability. The second narrative is that India is intent on state-building initiatives in Afghanistan in line with American efforts, in order to support Hamid Karzai’s government and preserve regional stability. According to this line of reasoning, Indian efforts in Afghanistan should be encouraged by Washington, which should also treat Pakistan’s manufactured or exaggerated concerns with scepticism.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The first narrative has long been dominant in the US capital and has been steadily advanced by Pakistani officials, who have used it to generate sympathy and concessions. President Barack Obama seems to have held this view at one point, as did the late Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke. The 2011 remarks by newly confirmed Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, which recently sparked outrage in New Delhi, are simply another articulation of this assessment. It may have been ill- informed, misleading and potentially dangerous for Indian, Afghan and American interests, but Hagel’s old statement and the controversy it generated in India offer an opportunity for introspection.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Much of the commentary in India over the past few days has assumed that Hagel’s assessment was informed and strongly biased. But to portray him as inherently anti-India misses the point. During his long Senate career, Hagel has often sided with India on important issues. He was a proponent of the Indo-US civil nuclear deal and voted in favour of that agreement’s enabling legislation. But Hagel’s exposure to India was always limited, and like many American policymakers of his generation, he never viewed the country as a priority.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There could not be a sharper contrast than with his familiarity with Pakistan’s regional security concerns. Hagel once told me that the Pressler amendment, the US legislation that imposed sanctions against Pakistan upon its acquisition of nuclear weapons, was a mistake because it complicated cooperation with the country following the 9/11 attacks. “For eleven years,” he lamented, “relations with [Pakistan’s] officers were lost.” His reading of events mirrored the version propagated by Islamabad. It overlooked the fact that the Pressler amendment stemmed from a Pakistani initiative, as a clever means of avoiding sanctions while continuing to pursue its clandestine weapons programme during the 1980s.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The bottom line is that Hagel’s worldview was coloured by his frequent interactions with Pakistani military and civilian leaders. While Islamabad has been extraordinarily successful in advancing its narrative in this manner — engaging leading American policymakers even when they are not in positions of influence — India has often fallen short in this regard.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fortunately, we can expect Hagel’s views to change now that he has been confirmed by the US Senate as the country’s top defence official. The Pentagon has already said that Hagel is “strongly committed” to the US-India strategic partnership. In the Pentagon, Hagel has access to far more intelligence than he did even as a senior legislator. He bears partial responsibility for the security of remaining US forces in Afghanistan, a heavy burden. And he will be working closely with his deputy, Ashton Carter, the designated point person for driving defence relations with India.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A more important aspect of Hagel’s worldview from India’s standpoint may well be his overall attitude toward the exercise of American power. A Republican, Hagel fell out with many members of his party by speaking out strongly against the US intervention in Iraq. He has regularly emphasised the unintended consequences of US actions and the constraints on American power, which will be reinforced by expected cuts to the defence budget. He is fond of citing a quote by former President Dwight Eisenhower: “let no one think that the expenditure of vast sums for weapons and systems of defence can guarantee absolute safety for the cities and citizens of any nation.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For India, an American worldview that places a priority on what Obama likes to call “nation-building at home” at the expense of power projection is cause for concern. India is comfortable with a strong US presence in the Asia-Pacific region, and American retrenchment generates uncertainty and invites revisionism. Yet Hagel, Obama and newly minted Secretary of State John Kerry all seem to prefer a more modest exercise of American power. As Indian officials begin to engage with Hagel and Kerry in their new capacities, their overall approach to India’s wider neighbourhood, rather than a single line in an old speech, ought to be made the real priority. &lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-6484994300257409745</guid>
         <pubDate>Sat, 02 Mar 2013 21:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | India Needs to Learn from Hagel Episode</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/02/the-following-interview-originally.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;The following interview originally appeared in&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.indiaamericatoday.com/article/india-needs-learn-hagel-episode-says-dhruva-jaishankar"&gt;India America Today&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;on February 27, 2013. An excerpt is included below, and the full text can be accessed &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.indiaamericatoday.com/article/india-needs-learn-hagel-episode-says-dhruva-jaishankar"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;What is your reaction to Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel suggesting in a 2011 speech that India has “for many years” sponsored terrorist activities against Pakistan in Afghanistan?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Chuck Hagel's words are certainly ill-advised, but they capture what is still unfortunately the prevailing view in Washington about India's activities in Afghanistan: that they are part of an ongoing proxy conflict with Pakistan. Statements to that effect inadvertently justify Pakistan's support for the Taliban and the Haqqani Network, and legitimize their sense of insecurity with dangerous consequences for American interests and regional stability. If, however, India's efforts in Afghanistan were to be portrayed as state-building in support of the Karzai government and the region's security, it would be logical for the United States to promote those efforts and work more closely with India. I suspect Senator Hagel is only repeating what he has heard from Pakistani interlocutors. For example, he has also said that sanctions against Pakistan following its nuclear tests were short-sighted as they made it difficult to work with Islamabad in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. This is a very one-sided reading of what happened, but it is probably influenced by conversations he has had with Pakistani civilian and military leaders.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;You have said that Hagel is not predisposed towards liking or not liking India; what is the point that Indians are missing here?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I have discussed some of these issues at length with Hagel in person. It seems, we overestimate the amount of attention most American policy makers - including Hagel - spend thinking about India and its interests. I don't believe his views on India are fully developed. Hagel has voted in favor of India on many occasions during his Senate career, so is not inherently anti-Indian as some have argued. But this incident does illustrate the work we in India need to do to better articulate Indian perspectives on matters of regional and global security to someone like Hagel, particularly when out of government. I am unaware of any Indian effort to engage him between 2008, when he retired from the Senate, and last year when he was nominated for Secretary of Defense.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Do you think Pakistani diplomatic machinery briefed Hagel, while Indians have been missing in the arena of essential diplomatic moves to showcase the Indian standpoint?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It's not a question of a single briefing or lobbying efforts. There's a lack of appreciation in New Delhi that Washington is a complex place where ideas and narratives compete and that the outcome of these debates have important consequences for Indian interests. New Delhi's efforts at competing in the contest of ideas have been feeble. For example, Hagel spent much of the past few years as chairman of the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, but Indian attempts at systematically engaging think tanks have been episodic at best. To their credit, I think Pakistani diplomats understand the value of proactive engagement with the broader American policy community, beyond the confines of government, and they have always managed to punch well above their weight as a result.&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-1983827540828373475</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 27 Feb 2013 21:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Jayakrishnan Nair | In Pragati: What caused the decline of Harappa?</title>
         <link>http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2013/02/what-caused-the-decline-of-harappa/</link>
         <description>(This was originally published in Pragati) In The Wonder That Was India, A L Basham presented a dramatic picture of the decline of the Harappan civilisation. According to him, from 3000 BCE, invaders were present in the region. After conquering the outlying villages, they made their move on Mohenjo-daro. The people of Mohenjo-daro fled, but [...]&lt;div class='yarpp-related-rss'&gt;

Related posts:&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2006/05/monsoon_caused_indus_valley_de/' title='Monsoon caused Indus Valley decline'&gt;Monsoon caused Indus Valley decline&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;The Indus Valley civilization flourised between the time period of 3300 &amp;#8211; 1700 BCE. Around 1900 BCE, people started leaving and the cities started to decline. There are many reasons...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2006/09/ghaggar_hakra_and_indus_sarasw/' title='Ghaggar-Hakra and Indus-Saraswati civilization'&gt;Ghaggar-Hakra and Indus-Saraswati civilization&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;The Rig-Veda authors mention their land as that of seven rivers. Out of the seven only five exist now. The remaining two, Saraswati and Drishadwati have disappeared. Following the discovery...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2006/09/climate_change_created_civiliz/' title='Climate change created civilization'&gt;Climate change created civilization&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;After flourishing from 2600 &amp;#8211; 1900 B.C.E, the Indus Valley Civilization entered a period of decline. The various reasons cited for the decline include climate change, like the decline of...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2010/08/in-pragati-book-review-the-lost-river-by-michel-danino/' title='In Pragati: Book Review &amp;#8211; The Lost River by Michel Danino'&gt;In Pragati: Book Review &amp;#8211; The Lost River by Michel Danino&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;In 2003, the Union Minister for Tourism and Culture, Jagmohan sanctioned Rs. 8 crore to the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) to search for the river Sarasvati. Though it was an...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2012/03/another-nail-in-the-aryan-coffin/' title='In &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Pragati&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: Another nail in the Aryan coffin'&gt;In &lt;i&gt;Pragati&lt;/i&gt;: Another nail in the Aryan coffin&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;(This article appeared in March 2012 edition of Pragati) The Aryan theory has gone through many revisions: Historians and archaeologists like A L Basham and Mortimer Wheeler advocated an invasion...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;

Related posts brought to you by &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://yarpp.org'&gt;Yet Another Related Posts Plugin&lt;/a&gt;.
&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/?p=3648</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2013 05:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img title="(via Wikipedia)" alt="(via Wikipedia)" src="http://i612.photobucket.com/albums/tt209/varnam_ini/Sarasvati.png"/></p>
<p>(This was originally published in <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2013/02/what-caused-the-decline-of-harappa/"><em>Pragati</em></a>)</p>
<p>In <em>The Wonder That Was India</em>, A L Basham presented a dramatic picture of the decline of the Harappan civilisation. According to him, from 3000 BCE, invaders were present in the region. After conquering the outlying villages, they made their move on Mohenjo-daro. The people of Mohenjo-daro fled, but were cut down by the invaders; the skeletons that were discovered proved this invasion. Basham concluded that the Indus cities fell to barbarians “who triumphed not only through greater military prowess, but also because they were equipped with better weapons, and had learnt to make full use of the swift and terror-striking beats of the steppes.” Sir R Mortimer Wheeler claimed these horse riding invaders were none other than Aryans and their war-god <em>Indra</em> destroyed the forts and citadels at Harappa. But Basham was not that certain of the identity of the charioteers; he stated that they could be non-Aryans as well.</p>
<p><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/033043909X/ref=as_li_ss_il?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=033043909X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=jksobservat-20"><img alt="" src="http://ws.assoc-amazon.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&amp;ASIN=033043909X&amp;Format=_SL160_&amp;ID=AsinImage&amp;MarketPlace=US&amp;ServiceVersion=20070822&amp;WS=1&amp;tag=jksobservat-20" align="left" border="0"/></a><img style="margin:0px;border-style:none;" alt="" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=jksobservat-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=033043909X" width="1" height="1" border="0"/> Basham wrote his book in early 1950s and a lot has changed after that. The decline of the Harappan civilisation is no longer attributed to “invading Aryans”, though that theory is still kept alive by political parties in South India. Even the non-Aryan invasion theory has been refuted as there is no trace in the archaeological record for such a disruptive event or the arrival of a new culture from Central Asia. The skeletons, which were touted as evidence for the invasion, were found to belong to different cultural phases thus nullifying the theory of a major battle. Due to all this, historians like Upinder Singh categorically state that the Harappan civilisation was not destroyed by an Indo-Aryan invasion. Instead of blaming the decline of the civilisation to invading or migrating population, the end is now attributed to environmental changes and whims and fancies of rivers.</p>
<p>From the late 1950s, historians believed that Mohenjo-daro was destroyed due to tectonic shifts in the region. According to one version, tectonic movements blocked the course of lower Indus river which must have caused floods that submerged the city. An opposing and the currently favoured theory suggests that instead of submerging in water, the city was starved of water. This happened because Indus shifted away from Mohenjo-daro, thus disrupting the crop cycle as well as the river-based communication network.</p>
<p><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143068644/ref=as_li_ss_il?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0143068644&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=jksobservat-20"><img alt="" src="http://ws.assoc-amazon.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&amp;ASIN=0143068644&amp;Format=_SL160_&amp;ID=AsinImage&amp;MarketPlace=US&amp;ServiceVersion=20070822&amp;WS=1&amp;tag=jksobservat-20" align="left" border="0"/></a><img style="margin:0px;border-style:none;" alt="" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=jksobservat-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0143068644" width="1" height="1" border="0"/> While Sindh, where Mohenjo-daro and Harappa are located, has just 9 percent of the 1140 Mature Harappan sites, the Ghaggar-Hakra basin has 32 percent of them; Archaeologists like S P Gupta and J M Kenoyer identify Ghaggar-Hakra with Sarasvati river. Around 1900 BCE, Kalibangan, located on the left bank of Ghaggar, was abandoned. Between the Mature and Late Harappan period, the number of sites along the river reduced considerably implying that the some hydrological change stopped the river from flowing.</p>
<p>One theory suggests that declining monsoons impacted water availability in Ghaggar-Hakra and that in turn caused the societal changes. Around 4000 years back, a dramatic climate change happened across North Africa, the Middle East, the Tibetan Plateau, southern Europe and North America. In India, during that period, there was an abrupt shift in monsoons, which lasted two centuries. In general, if you observe the patterns of recent years, monsoons have strong years and weak years, but they rarely deviate far away from the mean due to the dynamic feedback systems. It is a self-regulating system, but there have been occasions when the anomaly has lasted for few decades.</p>
<p>But what happened 4,000 years back was truly unusual; it was an anomaly larger than anything the subcontinent had faced since in the last 10,000 years. A paper published recently by Berkelhammer was able to narrow down the exact time frame during which this shift happened and it coincides with the decline of the Harappan civilization. This new study does not depend on indirect proxies (like pollen data), but uses a direct terrestrial climate proxy from the Mawmluh Cave in Cherrapunji and hence was able to show an unprecedented age constraint.</p>
<p>According to the paper, the most dramatic change occurred between 4071 (+/- 18) years and 3888 (+/- 22 years) Before Present (BP) for a period of 183 years. First there was a small rise between 4315 and 4303 years and a more precipitous one between 4071 and 4049 years BP. Once this change — which was earlier onset of monsoons or earlier withdrawal — happened, the monsoons stayed in this state for around 180 years before returning to normal values. Earlier monsoon withdrawal suggests that monsoon, which is tied to ocean-atmosphere dynamics and influences from the land surface, was weakened. For the Ghaggar-Hakra, which was fed by the monsoons, the impact was quite serious as it affected the habitability along its course. The study is quite interesting because it provides precise numbers for the duration and onset time for this climactic event. The previous studies did not have proper age constraints and some of them depended on factors (pollen, sedimentation rates) which could be influenced by external natural and man-made causes</p>
<p><img style="float:left;display:inline;" alt="" src="http://i612.photobucket.com/albums/tt209/varnam_ini/800px-Rain-on-Thassos_zps4c7015b9.jpg" align="left"/>Thus when one study claims that Ghaggar was a monsoon fed river and hence was easily susceptible to the vagaries of declining rainfall, there is another which shows that Sarasvati was a glacier-fed river and climate is not the only cause for changes. A paper in <em>Current Science</em> by K S Valdiya published in January of this year, titled <em>The river Sarasvati was a Himalayan-born river</em>, provides numerous counter arguments. First, the Sarasvati flowed through Western Rajasthan, which is one of the dustiest places on earth. 3500 years of dust storms have altered the landscape so much that the landforms created by the river would not be visible today. Second, the river ran through a region which saw tectonic upheavals and that would have altered the course of the river, like what happened to Indus. Third, the dimensions of paleochannels in the upper reaches of the river show that it was created by a large long-lived system. The paper strongly states that it was not a weakened monsoon, but the deflection of rivers by powerful tectonic activities which caused the decline of the Harappan civilisation along the Ghaggar river. Around 3,750 years Before Present, the Tamasa river joined Yamuna and a millennia later the Sutlej joined Beas. Due to this, the discharge of water in the Ghaggar was reduced and forced the Harappans to migrate elsewhere.</p>
<p>This is a contentious issue among academics; arguments and counter-arguments arrive sooner than you can digest them. While one controversy is over if tectonics or monsoon was responsible for the drying up of the river, there is another one over the climatic conditions during the Mature Harappan period. Some papers claim that Mature Harappan period occurred in a wetter phase and there are several others which show that Harappan urbanism rose in an arid phase. Paleoclimatology is a complicated field and more studies will give clarity to this controversy. But there is one certainty: the decline of the Harappan civilisation was not caused by invading Aryans or non-Aryans.</p>
<p>References:</p>
<ol>
<li>Singh, Upinder. <em>A History of Ancient and Early Medieval India: From the Stone Age to the 12th Century</em>. 1st ed. Prentice Hall, 2009.</li>
<li>Basham, AL <em>The Wonder That Was India;: A Survey of the Culture of the Indian Sub-continent Before the Coming of the Muslims</em>. 21st ed. Evergreen, 1977.</li>
<li>Danino, Michel. <em><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2010/08/in-pragati-book-review-the-lost-river-by-michel-danino/">Lost River: On The Trail of the Sarasvati</a></em>. Penguin Books India, 2010.</li>
<li>Berkelhammer, M, A Sinha, L Stott, H Cheng, F S R Pausata, and K Yoshimura (2012), <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.agu.org/books/gm/v198/2012GM001207/2012GM001207.shtml">An abrupt shift in the Indian monsoon 4000 years ago</a><em></em>, in Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 198, edited by L. Giosan et al., 75–87, AGU, Washington, D. C., doi:10.1029/2012GM001207.</li>
<li>Valdiya, KS “<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/104/01/0042.pdf">The River Saraswati Was a Himalayan-born River</a><em></em>.” CURRENT SCIENCE 104, no. 1 (2013): 42–54.</li>
<li>Giosan, Liviu, Peter D Clift, Mark G Macklin, Dorian Q Fuller, Stefan Constantinescu, Julie A Durcan, Thomas Stevens, et al. “<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/05/24/1112743109.abstract">Fluvial Landscapes of the Harappan Civilization</a><em></em>.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (May 29, 2012). doi:10.1073/pnas.1112743109.</li>
</ol>
<div class='yarpp-related-rss'>
<p>Related posts:<ol>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2006/05/monsoon_caused_indus_valley_de/' title='Monsoon caused Indus Valley decline'>Monsoon caused Indus Valley decline</a> <small>The Indus Valley civilization flourised between the time period of 3300 &#8211; 1700 BCE. Around 1900 BCE, people started leaving and the cities started to decline. There are many reasons...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2006/09/ghaggar_hakra_and_indus_sarasw/' title='Ghaggar-Hakra and Indus-Saraswati civilization'>Ghaggar-Hakra and Indus-Saraswati civilization</a> <small>The Rig-Veda authors mention their land as that of seven rivers. Out of the seven only five exist now. The remaining two, Saraswati and Drishadwati have disappeared. Following the discovery...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2006/09/climate_change_created_civiliz/' title='Climate change created civilization'>Climate change created civilization</a> <small>After flourishing from 2600 &#8211; 1900 B.C.E, the Indus Valley Civilization entered a period of decline. The various reasons cited for the decline include climate change, like the decline of...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2010/08/in-pragati-book-review-the-lost-river-by-michel-danino/' title='In Pragati: Book Review &#8211; The Lost River by Michel Danino'>In Pragati: Book Review &#8211; The Lost River by Michel Danino</a> <small>In 2003, the Union Minister for Tourism and Culture, Jagmohan sanctioned Rs. 8 crore to the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) to search for the river Sarasvati. Though it was an...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2012/03/another-nail-in-the-aryan-coffin/' title='In &lt;i&gt;Pragati&lt;/i&gt;: Another nail in the Aryan coffin'>In <i>Pragati</i>: Another nail in the Aryan coffin</a> <small>(This article appeared in March 2012 edition of Pragati) The Aryan theory has gone through many revisions: Historians and archaeologists like A L Basham and Mortimer Wheeler advocated an invasion...</small></li>
</ol></p>
<p>Related posts brought to you by <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://yarpp.org'>Yet Another Related Posts Plugin</a>.</p>
</div>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Return of the G2</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/02/return-of-g2.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;The following article originally appeared in&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.indianexpress.com/news/return-of-the-g2/1070355/0"&gt;The Indian Express&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;on February 7, 2013.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Is the United States set to adopt, once again, a "G2" worldview? As key foreign policy positions change hands in Washington, the debate surrounding American policy on the Asia-Pacific is being reignited. The outcome could potentially compromise the interests of India and other countries across the region that harbour latent concerns about China's rise. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The concept of a G2, in circulation for much of the past five years, gives priority to preserving close US-China ties at the expense of other key relationships. Proponents of a G2 argue that an accommodation between the US and China, as the two largest economic and military powers, can best address regional and global challenges, political or economic, existential or institutional. However, this covenant risks compromising liberal values and the interests of other emerging powers, led by India, as well as of long-standing US regional allies, such as Japan and South Korea. &amp;nbsp;Uncertainty surrounding the nature of the US presence and role in Asia also risks intensifying security competition between China and other Asian states, thus undermining an environment conducive to commerce and regional growth.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The G2 was a defining feature of US policy when Barack Obama first assumed the presidency in 2009. But attempts at strategically reassuring China backfired; Beijing responded with high-handedness during Obama's visit to China and at the Copenhagen climate summit later that year. Although Washington accommodated Chinese concerns, and risked the ire of states along China's periphery, Beijing refused to reciprocate, a product of its premature triumphalism in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. China also responded with greater assertiveness in its dealings with its neighbourhood, whether it was on the South China Sea or the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. In time, a G2-oriented approach gave way to the stated American goal of a "pivot" to Asia, an integrate-but-hedge policy constituting a reallocation of military assets, a stronger commercial presence, and closer relations with states across the Asia-Pacific.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The second Obama administration brings with it a change in personnel, a transition often accompanied by changes in policy. Some of the most vocal proponents of the pivot within the US government, including the former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, are moving on. Former Senator John Kerry has succeeded Clinton in the role of America's top diplomat, and several key foreign policy positions are likely to be announced in the coming days and weeks. While Kerry's views on Pakistan have been carefully followed by Indian observers, his approach to China and the Asian balance of power has faced far less scrutiny. In the prepared remarks during his Senate confirmation hearing, Kerry made no reference to the pivot and just a solitary — and neutral — mention of China's emergence. Taken together, his focus on the limitations of US power, tepid convictions about the merits of shared liberal values and emphasis on economic interdependence point to a more accommodating approach towards China.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But doubts about the pivot predate Kerry's nomination and run deep in Washington's diplomatic establishment. Michael Green, a former White House Asia official, suggested as much last December in the context of Japan's and South Korea's elections. "It is not hard to imagine an incoming team (at the US State Department) deciding that the highest priority in the second term must be modifying the harder edges of the pivot and quietly reassuring Beijing," he wrote on Foreignpolicy.com. "There are hints that some in the administration have already been shifting their public statements in this direction." The apparent inability of some of the G2's proponents to learn from past mistakes is another cause for concern. Speaking in Beijing last year, Jeffrey Bader, one of the architects of East Asia policy in the first Obama administration and an early exponent of the G2, reportedly described the pivot as directed equally against a rising India in an apparent bid to assuage Chinese concerns.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;If American policy suffers from one structural defect it is weak institutional memory. As Obama's new Asia policy team takes shape under Kerry and other principals, it would do well to revisit the mis-steps of 2009. For its part, New Delhi must begin to anticipate a period of uncertainty — with luck, mercifully brief — as Washington once again weighs the relative merits of the pivot and the G2&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-2628255485907532697</guid>
         <pubDate>Thu, 07 Feb 2013 20:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Picking Up From Clinton, Kerry Should Focus on Asia</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/02/picking-up-from-clinton-kerry-should.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;The following article originally appeared in&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.indiaamericatoday.com/article/picking-clinton-kerry-should-focus-asia"&gt;India America Today&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;on February 4, 2013. An excerpt is included below. The full text can be accessed &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.indiaamericatoday.com/article/picking-clinton-kerry-should-focus-asia"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As John Kerry assumes the role of Secretary of State, Clinton’s track record in Asia offers some useful guidance. Although Kerry has been a fixture of the American foreign policy establishment for decades and a presidential nominee in 2004, the guiding principles shaping his overall approach to foreign affairs are difficult to ascertain.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt; His signature legislative accomplishments include support for arms control agreements with Russia and expanded assistance to Pakistan as part of the landmark Kerry-Lugar-Berman legislation, while his prepared remarks during his Senate confirmation hearing placed an emphasis on nation-building at home and on challenges across the Muslim world.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt; Both his recent statements and those during his presidential bid suggest that Kerry is concerned about the United States’ limited capabilities and wary of aggressively promoting liberal democratic values.&lt;br /&gt; Clinton’s successes in Asia could yet provide Kerry with a basis upon which to build his own legacy, one that sees the United States emerge as a more confident Asian power with fewer commitments in regions of marginal strategic relevance. This, in turn, might require more frequent appearances in major Asian capitals, higher visibility with Asian publics, and more miles logged on transpacific flights.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-5195656208774602624</guid>
         <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 20:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | Engaging Wisely</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/01/engaging-wisely.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;My essay on Indian strategic autonomy appeared in the January 2013 edition of&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.forceindia.net/engaging-wisely.aspx"&gt;Force&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;magazine. An excerpt is included below:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In just two decades, India went from being a hopelessly impoverished, default-threatened, insurgency-riddled state on the losing side of the Cold War to a stable, increasingly prosperous, globally-engaged, and militarily secure rising power. During this period, India’s share of the global economy doubled, its status as a de facto nuclear weapons state was grudgingly accepted by the international community, and it improved its relations with most major and secondary powers. India underwent this remarkable transition without sacrificing its system of governance, its strategic independence, or its territorial integrity. A well-managed — if unevenly executed — strategy of internal balancing, deterrence, and strategic autonomy appears to have borne rich dividends. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Although strategic autonomy has evidently served India well, and has been implemented shrewdly by the country’s foreign policy practitioners, there is no guarantee that it will endure as a central pillar of India’s foreign policy. While not exhaustive, a list of plausible developments that might force India to abadon— or at least reconsider — strategic autonomy might include: a long-term Indian economic slowdown, Chinese aggression, a generational leadership transition, rebalanced civil-military relations, and the rise of new foreign policy constituencies.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;A PDF file of the essay in its entirety can be downloaded &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files_mf/1358348792EngagingWiselyDhruvaJaishankar.pdf"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-6818038967536774286</guid>
         <pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 14:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Jayakrishnan Nair | In Pragati: The missing prophets of 1857</title>
         <link>http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2012/12/in-pragati-the-missing-prophets-of-1857/</link>
         <description>From the late eighteenth century to mid-nineteenth century, as the world changed through conquest, colonialism and capitalism, a set of people rose around the world, reacting against such changes. Ironically, global historians – historians who look beyond regional and local causes – call these men prophets in an ode to Abrahamic religions. During this period [...]&lt;div class='yarpp-related-rss'&gt;

Related posts:&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/02/in-pragati-book-review-operation-red-lotus-by-parag-tope/' title='In Pragati: Book Review &amp;#8211;  Operation Red Lotus by Parag Tope'&gt;In Pragati: Book Review &amp;#8211;  Operation Red Lotus by Parag Tope&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;In late 1856, some strange practices began to surface in parts of north India. Red lotus flowers were circulated in garrisons which housed the Native Infantry. The subedar would line...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/02/indian-army-after-1857/' title='Indian Army after 1857'&gt;Indian Army after 1857&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;In his post, Punjabis in the Indian Army, F&amp;euml;anor writes about the composition of the Indian army in the 1870s. He notes that there were more Punjabi Muslims and Sikhs...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/10/in-pragati-book-review-felice-beato-a-photographer-on-the-eastern-road/' title='In &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Pragati&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: Book Review &amp;#8211; Felice Beato: A Photographer on the Eastern Road'&gt;In &lt;i&gt;Pragati&lt;/i&gt;: Book Review &amp;#8211; Felice Beato: A Photographer on the Eastern Road&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;(This review appeared in Oct 2011 edition of Pragati) In the 19th century, Britain went on a world wide bloodthirsty rampage: they were involved in the Crimean War (1853 &amp;#8211;...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2003/08/forgotten_events_meerut_1857/' title='Forgotten Events: Meerut, 1857'&gt;Forgotten Events: Meerut, 1857&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;India&amp;#8217;s first struggle for Independence in 1857-1858, started as an uprising protesting against the cartridges given to the soldiers. These new cartridges which had to be rammed down the barrel...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/08/indian-history-carnival-44agama%e1%b8%8dambara-kokila-sandesa-1857-de-havilland/' title='Indian History Carnival &amp;#8211; 44:&amp;#x000100;gama&amp;#x001e0d;ambara, Kokila Sande&amp;#x00015b;a, 1857, de Havilland'&gt;Indian History Carnival &amp;#8211; 44:Āgamaḍambara, Kokila Sandeśa, 1857, de Havilland&lt;/a&gt; &lt;small&gt;Complete Review has a review of Jayánta Bhaṭṭa&amp;#8217;s Sanskrit play Āgamaḍambara Much Ado about Religion, written about 900, is a didactic play that takes on (some) religion in a mix...&lt;/small&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;

Related posts brought to you by &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://yarpp.org'&gt;Yet Another Related Posts Plugin&lt;/a&gt;.
&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/?p=3540</guid>
         <pubDate>Mon, 10 Dec 2012 21:35:00 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width:510px;"><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/10/in-pragati-book-review-felice-beato-a-photographer-on-the-eastern-road/"><img title="The ruins of Sikandar Bagh palace showing the skeletal remains of rebels in the foreground, Lucknow, India, 1858" src="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/55_10_Secundra_Bagh_after_Indian_Mutiny.jpg" alt="The ruins of Sikandar Bagh palace showing the skeletal remains of rebels in the foreground, Lucknow, India, 1858" width="500" height="391"/></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The ruins of Sikandar Bagh palace showing the skeletal remains of rebels in the foreground, Lucknow, India, 1858</p></div>
<p>From the late eighteenth century to mid-nineteenth century, as the world changed through conquest, colonialism and capitalism, a set of people rose around the world, reacting against such changes. Ironically, global historians – historians who look beyond regional and local causes – call these men prophets in an ode to Abrahamic religions. During this period of encounters and social changes, these charismatic leaders revitalised traditional ways and reorganised societies to challenge foreign institutions and ideas. Garnering support of broad swaths of society, they promised to restore lost harmony, bring in a new moral order, and a bright future. While global historians were able to find leaders for such movements in China, Middle East, United States, Mexico and Europe, they missed the leaders of the First War of Independence in India and fell back on the same old narratives.</p>
<p>As we look at examples from around the world, we get to see some of the qualities and methods of these leaders who influenced fields as diverse as economics, politics and religion. Due to encounters with the Western world, new ideas circulated in the Islamic world and alarmed by the lax religious practices and attempts by rulers in Saudi Arabia and sub-Saharan Africa to model their administration along European lines, leaders arose to return Islam back to its pure form. In Saudi Arabia, this led to the rise of Wahhabism under the leadership of Ibn abd al-Wahhab (1703 – 1792) whose work still influences the modern world. In West Africa, Usman dan Fodio (1754 – 1817) too attacked unbelievers and false religions and his movement led to Islam becoming a majority religion in the Nigerian region.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width:230px;"><img style="display:inline;" title=" Tecumseh portrait" src="http://i612.photobucket.com/albums/tt209/varnam_ini/220px-Tecumseh.jpg" alt=" Tecumseh portrait" width="220" height="270" align="left"/><p class="wp-caption-text">Tecumseh</p></div>
<p>During this period, leaders also provided political leadership and created larger states from tribal clans. As Africa became overpopulated and there was competition for cattle-grazing and farming lands, small family clans found themselves overwhelmed. This traditional structure which had existed for centuries could no longer cope with the changes brought by long distance trade. It was the right moment for a cruel and powerful leader like Shaka (1787 – 1828) to rise up, wipe out other clans and unite the winners into a large monarchy, which in turn led to the creation of the Zulu kingdom. In the United States of America, Native Americans had to compete for land with the European colonisers who forcefully took over their land. As a reaction, groups under leaders like Tenskwatwa (1775 – 1836) and Tecumseh (1768 – 1813) exhorted their followers to renounce European goods and shun the missionaries. They tried to forge unity among native Americans, but were eventually betrayed by the British and left to perish.</p>
<p>In China, after a humiliating defeat in the Opium War that forced the country to open other ports to foreign merchants, there rose a fear of western power. During that period, as the rulers became inefficient, masses of people joined what is known as the Taiping Rebellion, motivated by a Christian leader named Hong Xiuquan (1813 – 1864). Like the Islamic leaders in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, his goal was to return China to an era before it was corrupted by human conventions. Their war was not against the Europeans, but against the Chinese leaders who they thought were the main obstacle in obtaining God’s kingdom on earth. Hong came up with a radical new system which basically countered all the established Chinese traditions, but in the end it was defeated.</p>
<p>Analysis of these prophetic movements across the world show that whenever there is a structural change – in religion or rebellions – it is triggered by a leader. These revolutions were not accidents, but the result of planned action by certain individuals who inspired the masses through messages, symbols and charisma. In the pantheon of prophets we see leaders like Jacinto Pat and Cecilio Chi who led the Mayans in 1847 by blending Christian rituals with Mayan beliefs, Charles Fourier who had a utopian socialist vision and Karl Marx who inspired many nations and their leaders with this theory of proletarian revolt. While many such movements were defeated, the ideas they created lived longer.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width:260px;"><img style="display:inline;" title=" Tantya Tope,  after his capture in 1859" src="http://i612.photobucket.com/albums/tt209/varnam_ini/Tantiatope.jpg" alt=" Tantya Tope,  after his capture in 1859" width="250" height="359" align="left"/><p class="wp-caption-text">Wikipedia says this picture is Tantya Tope, after his capture in 1859, but this is a fake(See note 2)</p></div>
<p>When global historians evaluate the “Rebellion of 1857” in this context, it is mentioned as an uprising which was sparked by the greased cartridge controversy. Compared to the other global revolutions, this one was not triggered by any prophet, but was a spontaneous uprising or mutiny and it was after the uprising happened that leaders came up. But if one asks questions like how thousands of Indian soldiers marched successfully to Delhi without a supply line, it is evident that something is missing from the known narrative.</p>
<p>New, as well as ignored evidence now tell us that the Anglo-Indian war of 1857 was a carefully planned operation. Leaders like Baija Bai Shinde, Nana Saheb and his Diwan Tatya Tope, Begum Hazrat Mahal, and the Nawab of Banda were involved in the planning using red lotus flowers and chappatis to count the number of soldiers and ensure the commitment of the villages along the army path. Letters translated for the first time in Parag Tope’s “Operation Red Lotus” reveal that Tatya Tope was aware of military movements, logistics and provisions.</p>
<p>Global historians alone cannot be blamed for this lapse because Indian historians themselves have not accepted this view. Then, misrepresentation of the war of 1857 is not new. Depending on the bias of historians, it had many interpretations. According to the official version by Surendra Nath Sen, it was a spontaneous uprising. Marxist historians marginalised the leadership and saw it as a peasant revolt. Another Indian historian wondered how it could be a war at a time when India was not a nation. Now we know that the leaders of the war of 1857 used symbols (red lotus) and messages (Azamgarh proclamation) similar to the prophets of China and USA, and promised a new moral order where people would have political, religious and economic freedom.</p>
<p>Thus, the Anglo-Indian war of 1857 doesn’t have to be relegated to a secondary status in the global prophetic narrative as it satisfies the criteria met by the others.</p>
<p><strong>Notes</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>This was adapted from an assignment I did for “<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.coursera.org/course/wh1300">A History of the World since 1300</a>”  by Princeton University. It was first published at <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2012/12/the-missing-prophets-of-1857/">Pragati</a></li>
<li>Personal communication with Parag Tope</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>References</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Tignor, Robert, Jeremy Adelman, Stephen Aron, Stephen Kotkin, Suzanne Marchand, Gyan Prakash, and Michael Tsin. <em>Worlds Together, Worlds Apart: A History of the World: From 1000 CE to the Present (Third Edition).</em>W. W. Norton &amp; Company, 2010.</li>
<li>Tope, Parag. Tatya Tope’s <em>Operation Red Lotus</em>. Rupa &amp; Co., 2010.</li>
</ol>
<div class='yarpp-related-rss'>
<p>Related posts:<ol>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/02/in-pragati-book-review-operation-red-lotus-by-parag-tope/' title='In Pragati: Book Review &#8211;  Operation Red Lotus by Parag Tope'>In Pragati: Book Review &#8211;  Operation Red Lotus by Parag Tope</a> <small>In late 1856, some strange practices began to surface in parts of north India. Red lotus flowers were circulated in garrisons which housed the Native Infantry. The subedar would line...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/02/indian-army-after-1857/' title='Indian Army after 1857'>Indian Army after 1857</a> <small>In his post, Punjabis in the Indian Army, F&euml;anor writes about the composition of the Indian army in the 1870s. He notes that there were more Punjabi Muslims and Sikhs...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/10/in-pragati-book-review-felice-beato-a-photographer-on-the-eastern-road/' title='In &lt;i&gt;Pragati&lt;/i&gt;: Book Review &#8211; Felice Beato: A Photographer on the Eastern Road'>In <i>Pragati</i>: Book Review &#8211; Felice Beato: A Photographer on the Eastern Road</a> <small>(This review appeared in Oct 2011 edition of Pragati) In the 19th century, Britain went on a world wide bloodthirsty rampage: they were involved in the Crimean War (1853 &#8211;...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2003/08/forgotten_events_meerut_1857/' title='Forgotten Events: Meerut, 1857'>Forgotten Events: Meerut, 1857</a> <small>India&#8217;s first struggle for Independence in 1857-1858, started as an uprising protesting against the cartridges given to the soldiers. These new cartridges which had to be rammed down the barrel...</small></li>
<li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://varnam.nationalinterest.in/2011/08/indian-history-carnival-44agama%e1%b8%8dambara-kokila-sandesa-1857-de-havilland/' title='Indian History Carnival &#8211; 44:&#x000100;gama&#x001e0d;ambara, Kokila Sande&#x00015b;a, 1857, de Havilland'>Indian History Carnival &#8211; 44:Āgamaḍambara, Kokila Sandeśa, 1857, de Havilland</a> <small>Complete Review has a review of Jayánta Bhaṭṭa&#8217;s Sanskrit play Āgamaḍambara Much Ado about Religion, written about 900, is a didactic play that takes on (some) religion in a mix...</small></li>
</ol></p>
<p>Related posts brought to you by <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href='http://yarpp.org'>Yet Another Related Posts Plugin</a>.</p>
</div>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | India's Ocean</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2012/12/indias-ocean.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Could New Delhi's growing naval force change the balance of power in the Pacific? &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The following article was published by&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/06/indias_ocean?page=full"&gt;Foreign Policy&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;on December 6, 2012 and reproduced by&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/high-on-confidence-on-high-seas-1.1116364"&gt;Gulf News&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;on December 10, 2012 ('High on confidence on high seas'). An excerpt is included below.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;...India is far more likely to become a regular naval presence in the Pacific than many previously imagined, due to its rapidly expanding economy, improving military technologies, and growing energy interests. The Indian Navy has historically been the smallest and most poorly-resourced of India's three military services, in keeping with the country's security preoccupations at home and its unresolved land border disputes with Pakistan and China. It has just 60,000 active personnel and a $7 billion annual budget, roughly a quarter of the strength and resources of China's People's Liberation Army Navy. Its long-range capabilities come from a single aircraft carrier, a second-hand amphibious transport dock, 14 German- or Russian-designed diesel-powered submarines, and about 20 destroyers and frigates.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But power is relative, and this seemingly small flotilla today constitutes the largest naval presence in the Indian Ocean after the U.S. Navy. Beyond the United States and China, only Japan, South Korea, and perhaps Taiwan boast even comparable capacities for the region, although their navies are more narrowly focused. But India's navy dwarfs those of other countries embroiled in territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea. The two strongest rival claimants to China, Vietnam and the Philippines, boast just three active frigates between them. The temporary presence of even a small Indian squadron in the Pacific could make a meaningful difference to the region's balance of power.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;India's growing interests, resources, and technological capabilities will likely lead it to increased naval activity east of the Strait of Malacca&lt;b&gt;, &lt;/b&gt;the critical junction of the Pacific and Indian Oceans through which 40 percent of the world's trade and most of East Asia's oil imports flow. India is &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://navaltoday.com/2012/08/13/ins-arihant-prepares-for-sea-trials/"&gt;conducting&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;sea trials of an indigenously-designed nuclear-powered submarine, which will significantly increase its navy's operational range. In the next two years, India will&lt;b&gt; &lt;/b&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3893679.ece"&gt;induct&lt;/a&gt; a second aircraft carrier and modern French submarines into active service, to upgrade its aging fleet. The navy's share of the defense budget has steadily grown from less than 15 percent of India's annual military expenditure in 2000 to 19 percent in 2012, outpacing India's overall defense spending. And the 2009 agreement to &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.janes.com/events/exhibitions/farnborough-2012/news/july-11/Indian-P-8I-kicks-flight-trials-2013-delivery.aspx"&gt;purchase&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;P-8 aircraft from the United States, capable of interdicting ships and tracking submarines, signals India's technological ambitions in the high seas.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Perhaps more importantly, India is able to work with other regional navies. Beginning with basic exercises in the early 2000s, the Indian Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Pacific Command has evolved into complex war games. In 2004, India tested its ability to respond to regional crises in coordination with the United States, Japan, and Australia by &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ipcs.org/article/navy/indian-naval-diplomacy-post-tsunami-1640.html"&gt;performing&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;humanitarian relief operations in Southeast Asia following the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami. And the &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=44602"&gt;Malabar series&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;of naval exercises between India and the United States, which have also involved Japan, Australia, and Singapore, has strengthened the Indian Navy's ability to work closely with partners far from its shores. Contrast this to China: Beyond dustups with Southeast Asian countries, and with Japan &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203922804578082371509569896.html"&gt;over disputed islands&lt;/a&gt; -- which only generate further suspicion of Chinese military intentions -- Beijing is also quick to &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/18/time-to-fix-u-s-military-ties-with-china/"&gt;break off&lt;/a&gt; military ties, like it did after Washington sold weapons to Taiwan in 2010.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;None of this means that India is looking to pick a fight with China in the South China Sea, particularly as India has no territorial stakes there. Other facets of the Sino-Indian relationship -- the fragile boundary talks over disputed Himalayan territory and bilateral trade of more than &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-11/27/content_15964596.htm"&gt;$70 billion&lt;/a&gt; and growing -- are of far greater importance to New Delhi. At the same time, renouncing claims to its &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.ongcvidesh.com/Assets.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1"&gt;assets in Vietnam&lt;/a&gt; in response to perceived Chinese pressure could embarrass the Indian government, both domestically and internationally. When confronted with pressure from Beijing -- as during the Dalai Lama's 2009 &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1934948,00.html"&gt;visit&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;to the disputed border town of Tawang or periods when China has &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=756940"&gt;refused&lt;/a&gt; to issue visas in some Indian passports -- New Delhi's response has generally been to stick to its guns.&lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-6313457365263071309</guid>
         <pubDate>Thu, 06 Dec 2012 11:39:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | China and India: New Actors in the Southern Atlantic</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2013/02/china-and-india-new-actors-in-southern.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;A report I co-authored with colleagues was published in December 2012 as "China and India: New Actors in the Southern Atlantic." An excerpt is included below. The full text can be downloaded &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files_mf/1354803102AlessandriEtAl_ChinaIndia_Oct12_web.pdf"&gt;&lt;em&gt;here&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="separator" style="clear:both;text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-s4bg_qKS04k/USGGV66P2FI/AAAAAAAAAR4/Rni51LRaUvs/s1600/Untitled.jpg" style="clear:left;float:left;margin-bottom:1em;margin-right:1em;"&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files_mf/1354803102AlessandriEtAl_ChinaIndia_Oct12_web.pdf" style="clear:left;float:left;margin-bottom:1em;margin-right:1em;"&gt;&lt;img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-s4bg_qKS04k/USGGV66P2FI/AAAAAAAAAR4/Rni51LRaUvs/s1600/Untitled.jpg"/&gt;&lt;/a&gt;In late 2006, India’s chief of naval staff, Admiral Sureesh Mehta, surprised many observers — both at home and abroad — by defining India’s “greater strategic neighborhood” as extending from Venezuela to Russia’s Sakhalin Island. This lofty aspiration appears to have been driven by India’s concerns about maintaining open sea lanes in an effort to secure its energy interests. But it may also have represented one of the first conscious attempts at bringing the Southern Atlantic Basin — the maritime littoral extending from the Strait of Gibraltar to the Cape of Good Hope, and from the Gulf of Mexico to Tierra del Fuego — into India’s strategic consciousness. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div align="LEFT"&gt;As India’s economy has opened after the end of the Cold War and grown from $320 billion to $1.8 trillion in less than two decades, its global interests have expanded and its international engagements have increased exponentially. India’s priorities have revolved around refashioning its ties with the United States, expanding its economic and commercial links with East and Southeast Asia, and stabilizing its relations with China and Pakistan. Historical legacies, the large Indian diaspora, and pressing economic and strategic interests have also meant that Russia, the Middle East, Europe, and East Africa have featured prominently in India’s international relations. But until relatively recently, Latin America and Western and Southern Africa — the countries comprising the Southern Atlantic — remained lower priorities. For a number of reasons, not least growing economic and trade links, resource imports, cultural connections to the Indian diaspora, and political alignment on multilateral issues, this is likely to change. We can soon expect the Southern Atlantic to feature more prominently on India’s strategic radar.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div align="LEFT"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;"&gt;This paper provides a broad overview of India’s engagements to date with the Southern Atlantic, covering some of the historical and geographic roots of its limited interaction; the gradually intensifying economic and commercial linkages with the region, driven largely by India’s quest for resources; and India’s most important multilateral and bilateral political relationships in the region. It concludes with some possible implications for the United States and Europe, including potential areas for collaboration.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span style="font-family:MinionPro-Regular;"&gt;&lt;/span&gt; &lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-1504168733251201108</guid>
         <pubDate>Sat, 01 Dec 2012 20:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
         <media:thumbnail height="72" url="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-s4bg_qKS04k/USGGV66P2FI/AAAAAAAAAR4/Rni51LRaUvs/s72-c/Untitled.jpg" width="72" />
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Dhruva Jaishankar | US’s pluralistic attributes make me proud to remain an Indian citizen</title>
         <link>http://www.dhruvajaishankar.com/2012/11/uss-pluralistic-attributes-make-me.html</link>
         <description>&lt;div dir="ltr" style="text-align:left;"&gt;&lt;em&gt;The following article originally appeared in the&lt;/em&gt; &lt;a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/uss-pluralistic-attributes-make-me-proud-to-remain-an-india-citizen-dhruva-jaishankar/articleshow/17175486.cms"&gt;Economic Times&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt; on Sunday, November 11.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BOSTON--On Tuesday, I accompanied my wife to the electoral precinct near our home to observe American democracy firsthand. The makeshift polling station was on a basketball court at a former middle school, where elderly volunteers steered voters through the process. There were nine choices on the ballot — for US president, US senator, US representative, state senator, state representative, governor's council, court clerk, deed register and sheriff — as well as five referendum questions, related to such things as the legalisation of medical marijuana and the prescription of euthanasia-inducing drugs.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Two girls stood outside selling homemade cookies to raise money for their school. The location and the ballot itself contributed to the parochial trappings of the enterprise: it may have been a national election, but it consisted of locals voting locally on local issues. That's not necessarily what the rest of the world imagines.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Perception vs Reality&lt;/b&gt;  &lt;br /&gt;America has long suffered for the discordance between foreign perceptions and ground realities. Although my family lived in the United States during my early childhood — a comfortable suburban existence that gleamed on the fringes of my consciousness — I spent my formative years observing America from afar. Like countless others around the world, I grew up associating this powerful nation with boorish, unintelligent people, social inequity and an absence of real history or culture.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Living in Delhi in the early 1990s, during the pinnacle of US unipolarity, I shared in the widespread resentment of the US acting as the world's self-anointed policeman. The occasional grating encounter with US expatriates, often in sheltered foreign outposts of Americana, contributed to these prejudices. None of this, curiously enough, impinged upon my voracious appetite for American films, television, music, fast food, or my desire to attend an American college.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Arriving as an undergraduate in Minnesota, deep in the Midwestern heartland, I stubbornly resisted the study of anything American, whether politics, history, or culture. But in time I developed a keener appreciation of my new country of residence and its people. Far from the stereotype of uncultured small-town hicks, I encountered a politically and civically engaged society with a surprising amount of curiosity about the world and an extraordinary appreciation for the arts. I anticipated hostility and xenophobia against South Asians following the 9/11 attacks, but never experienced overt racism.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Travel contributed to a much deeper understanding of the US's immense diversity: the many slivers of the country that escape depiction in exportable popular culture. And a lecture on the foundations of the American republic provided a first true glimmer of appreciation for the US's smug sense of exceptionalism. In time, professional experiences cemented my admiration for America's singularity: although I worked in public policy and security, inherently sensitive fields, I never felt constrained by my background or origins.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;The Other Land&lt;/b&gt;  &lt;br /&gt;This year, I became eligible for US citizenship, an opportunity millions might seize in a heartbeat. But despite studying, working, residing and marrying in the country, I opted not to apply. To some degree, my choice was a direct function of India's rise. American citizenship once provided Indians a passport to unparalleled opportunity and security, but in relative terms it is losing its lustre. Favourable views of the US in India have tumbled from over 70% in 2005 to under 50% today, in large part due to America's declining attraction as a land of opportunity. H-1B non-immigrant employment visas, highly prized until recently by Indian professionals, now go unclaimed.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In other respects, my choice was influenced by identity: as much as I enjoy living in the United States, my loyalty to the country — insofar as I feel any — is tenuous. A sharp sense of unease and vulnerability resurfaces during those rare unpleasant encounters with American officialdom. In Joseph O'Neill's novel Netherland, his Dutch protagonist is maliciously denied a US driver's licence because of a minor clerical error. "I was seized for the first time by a nauseating sense of America, my gleaming adopted country," recalls O'Neill's narrator.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;"The rinsed taxis," he observes, walking out into the New York streets, "shone like grapefruits; but if you looked down into the space between the road and the undercarriage... you saw a foul mechanical dark." It's a feeling immediately recognisable to anyone who has had to wait in line for a visa at a US consulate, parrying hostile questions about the reasons for one's visit.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;b&gt;Still at Home&lt;/b&gt;  &lt;br /&gt;There is still no denying that American society remains predisposed toward inclusivity, its strongest suit, and an unexpectedly contagious sentiment for an undertaking as exclusive as a national election. I may not have cast a ballot in this week's presidential vote; I could not, nor did I have any desire to. But my voluntary disenfranchisement has not prevented America — and the values it stands for — from earning my deep respect as a foreign national. In fact, it is that very appreciation of the US's pluralistic, democratic attributes that makes me prouder still to remain a citizen of that other great pluralistic democracy: India.  &lt;/div&gt;</description>
         <author>Dhruva Jaishankar</author>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2060268507793421413.post-787063400167327455</guid>
         <pubDate>Sun, 11 Nov 2012 00:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohit Pradhan | Public Policy in the Indian Democracy</title>
         <link>http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/public-policy-in-the-indian-democracy/</link>
         <description>And its challanges In Punchtantra, my bimonthly column in Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review, I argue, Third, the policies pursued by its government often fail to reflect the limitations of India’s development. Despite its remarkable growth over the last two decades, India remains a poor country. With barely three percent of its citizens as [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/?p=1768</guid>
         <pubDate>Sun, 10 Mar 2013 02:16:05 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>And its challanges</strong></p>
<p>In <em>Punchtantra</em>, my bimonthly column in <em>Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review</em>, I argue,</p>
<blockquote><p>Third, the policies pursued by its government often fail to reflect the limitations of India’s development. Despite its remarkable growth over the last two decades, India remains a poor country. With barely three percent of its citizens as income tax payers and a low tax-GDP ratio, the Indian state lacks the resources to implement the policies it champions. Worse, it wastes precious resources in implementing policies which may be attractive in abstract but are unsuitable for India’s current needs.</p>
<p>Take for instance something as simple as seat belt laws. Despite some controversy in the academic literature, at least in theory, increased seat belt usage would be expected to save lives. But as Vivek Dehejia and Rupa Subramanya point out in their new book <em>Indianomix: Making Sense of Modern India</em>, the vast majority of fatalities on Delhi roads are pedestrians. Even if seatbelt laws are properly enforced, they would hardly make a dent in the tragically high number of traffic deaths. Should not the severely undermanned Delhi Traffic Police then direct its limited resources towards ensuring that pedestrians are able to safely cross the road rather than worry about errant car drivers? The argument is not that the safety of car drivers does not matter. Of course, it does but to recognise that even the safety-challenged cars vastly improve the odds of surviving a trip on Indian roads. [<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2013/03/indias-biggest-deficit/">link]</a></p></blockquote>
<div id="wrc-float-icon" style="width:42px;height:42px;display:none;"></div>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohit Pradhan | What Makes Modi Unacceptable</title>
         <link>http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/what-makes-modi-unacceptable/</link>
         <description>In the Outlook In a piece in Outlook, I argue, In a multi-ethnic/religious country like India, no leader can perhaps command the support of all communities but he must not attract the implacable hostility of India’s largest minority. For instance, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee may not have enjoyed widespread support among Muslims but [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/?p=1766</guid>
         <pubDate>Sun, 10 Mar 2013 02:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>In the Outlook</strong></p>
<p>In a piece in Outlook, I argue,</p>
<blockquote><p>In a multi-ethnic/religious country like India, no leader can perhaps command the support of all communities but he must not attract the implacable hostility of India’s largest minority. For instance, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee may not have enjoyed widespread support among Muslims but was not treated as an enemy either. Call it what you will, but it is this ‘Muslim veto’  which makes Modi unacceptable as India’s next leader. This may disappoint those who place their faith unflinchingly in the power of the individual. But as Pratap Bhanu Mehta has argued, even some of the founding fathers agreed that any concept of citizenship which distances itself completely from religious identity would be untenable in India. Communitarianism is a sociological reality in India and while there is always the danger of it degenerating into narrow sectarianism, its political effects simply cannot be ignored.</p>
<p>Whether it makes Modi unelectable as NDA/BJP’s putative leader is another story. Nevertheless, India can survive poor governance for the next few years but what it cannot survive is the further estrangement of its Muslim minority. Even if the promise of a high Modi-led growth is accepted at its face value, it is simply not worth risking the fraying of India’s multiple fault lines.  [<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?283979">link</a>]</p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div id="wrc-float-icon" style="width:42px;height:42px;display:none;"></div>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohit Pradhan | The Great Indian Middle Class Awakening</title>
         <link>http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/the-great-indian-middle-class-awakening/</link>
         <description>And the pit-falls ahead  In my column in The Wall Street Journal, I examine the recent protests against the brutal rape-cum murder of a medical student in New Delhi, So it&amp;#8217;s worth paying attention when this important section of society realizes it has a stake in the state&amp;#8217;s performance. Some of this was apparent in [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/?p=1659</guid>
         <pubDate>Thu, 17 Jan 2013 02:50:15 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>And the pit-falls ahead </strong></p>
<p>In my column in <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>, I examine the recent protests against the brutal rape-cum murder of a medical student in New Delhi,</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="text-align:left;">So it&#8217;s worth paying attention when this important section of society realizes it has a stake in the state&#8217;s performance. Some of this was apparent in the anticorruption movement that began in late 2010, when activist <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://topics.wsj.com/person/h/anna-hazare/6636">Anna Hazare</a>tapped into the middle class&#8217;s frustrations about pervasive corruption.</p>
<p style="text-align:left;">Last month&#8217;s incident in Delhi is perhaps a bigger moment. Housewives and office-goers understand that while they may be secure in their homes and offices, they still require a strong and accountable police force to protect them on the streets. The recent protests underline that India needs a strong but limited state, an entity which does fewer things but does them well. [<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324081704578238803152474228.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">link</a>]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Read the rest on<em> The Wall Street Journal</em>. (subscription required)</p>
<div id="wrc-float-icon" style="width:42px;height:42px;display:none;"></div>
<div id="wrchoverdiv" style="display:none;">
<div id="wrccontainer">
<div id="wrcheader">
<div id="wrctitle">WebRep</div>
</div>
<div class="wrchorizontal"></div>
<div id="wrccurrentvote">currentVote</div>
<div class="wrchorizontal"></div>
<div id="wrcrating"></div>
<div id="wrcratingtext">noRating</div>
<div id="wrcweighttext">noWeight</div>
<div id="wrcflags"></div>
<div class="wrchorizontal"></div>
</div>
</div>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohit Pradhan | On Modi</title>
         <link>http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/on-modi/</link>
         <description>Can Modi do an Advani? The Special Investigation Team (SIT) report on Narendra Modi&amp;#8217;s alleged role in the Gulbarg massacre held no particular surprises. As widely discussed previously, the SIT report held that there was no &amp;#8216;prosecutable evidence&amp;#8217; to proceed against Modi and his fellow co-accused in this particular case. Naturally, the much-anticipated report has [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/?p=1512</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 11 Apr 2012 05:11:59 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Can Modi do an Advani? </strong></p>
<p>The Special Investigation Team (SIT) report on Narendra Modi&#8217;s alleged role in the Gulbarg massacre held no particular surprises. As widely discussed previously, the SIT report held that there was no &#8216;prosecutable evidence&#8217; to proceed against Modi and his fellow co-accused in this particular case. Naturally, the much-anticipated report has set off a political maelstrom in the media: His supporters see it as the final vindication of Modi’s innocence while his opponents have sworn to pursue the legal case against the Gujarat chief minister to its logical conclusion.</p>
<p><span id="more-1512"></span></p>
<p>In this highly charged debate, it is imperative to separate the legal case against Modi from the political case. As I have argued <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-has-narendra-modi-paintedh-himself-into-a-corner/20120316.htm">elsewhere</a>,</p>
<blockquote><p>However, instead of accepting the findings of a duly constituted investigative body, many have attempted to put the SIT itself on trial. It appears that their faith in the legal process may not be as unshakable as they have repeatedly claimed — especially if it yields results that they find unpalatable. In fact, lambasting the legal system in India and labelling it fundamentally unfair to the poor and the marginalised seems to become an element of faith among the Left-liberal section of the Indian polity and civil society. Even the argument that SIT has &#8216;ignored&#8217; important testimonies is fallacious. Any investigative and judicial process rests on weighing competing narratives and evidences; mala fide intent is not proven merely because the ultimate verdict favours one particular narrative over the other. Finally, the legal options for Modi&#8217;s critics have hardly closed. They can certainly contest the SIT&#8217;s findings in a judicial forum, but casting aspersions on an investigative body constituted and monitored directly by the Supreme Court is hardly appropriate.</p>
<p>Naturally, Modi can and should be confronted politically. It can be reasonably argued that Modi&#8217;s administrative and moral failures in 2002 make him an unsuitable candidate for the highest office in the land.</p></blockquote>
<p>Instead of launching a calumnious campaign against SIT chief R.K Raghavan, Modi&#8217;s opponents should let the judiciary adjudicate on the SIT report. If the SIT has indeed ignored important evidence—as critics like Teesta Setalvad allege—then surely the Supreme Court can be trusted to take the SIT to task and order a fresh investigation. Retaining faith in India&#8217;s institutions is of paramount important and is a concern Modi&#8217;s opponents would ignore at their own peril. After all, it is the same SIT which recently secured the conviction of 23 accused in the Ode massacre case.</p>
<p>But as the judiciary evaluates the SIT report, the political battle continues unabated. Modi’s supporters see the SIT report as a golden opportunity for the Gujarat strongman to finally emerge in the national spotlight. They believe that only Narendra Modi can confront Rahul Gandhi and lead the BJP to victory in the 2014 general elections. But can Modi finally lay the ghosts of 2002 to rest merely because he has won an important legal battle? Writing on the Indian National Interest platform, blogger <em>Pragmatic</em> perfectly <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragmatic.nationalinterest.in/2012/04/10/what-the-time-poll-tells-us/">captures the Modi dynamic</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Let me explain how. Mr Modi may never get around to be acceptable to a majority of people in a diverse country like India. No politician in India is, whether it be a Nitish Kumar or a Naveen Patnaik. But unlike Mr Modi, a Nitish or a Patnaik are not unacceptable to a vast majority of people. People may not vote for them but they are not going to come out to vote against them. It is not the case with Mr Modi, as the Time poll clearly shows. A Nitish Kumar in a similar internet poll may have got only 30-35% of the Yes votes that Mr Modi received but the No votes for Nitish wouldn’t have been more than 10-15% of the No votes that Modi got. This is Mr Modi’s handicap.</p></blockquote>
<p>That in essence is the conundrum his supporters consistently ignore. Indubitably, Modi has passionate followers but he has even more aggressive opponents and there is no evidence yet that his supporters constitute anything more significant than a vocal and loud minority. Many even argue that because Modi has been so consistently vilified over the years, that he may even emerge as a figure deserving sympathy<strong><span style="color:#800000;">.</span> </strong>It is hard to believe that even Modi would buy this vast leap into sophistry but on such fond hopes politics in India is conducted.</p>
<p>The closest approximation for Narendra Modi is senior BJP leader and former home minister L.K Advani. To Advani goes the &#8216;credit&#8217; of constructing a political movement around the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation; he was easily Hindutva&#8217;s tallest leader before Modi usurped his throne. Advani, of course, faced a lot of criticism for his role in the Babri Masjid demolition and the subsequent communal polarization whose apogee was perhaps reached in the Gujarat riots. Yet, Advani was slowly able to rehabilitate his image to the extent that he was the unanimous choice as the prime ministerial candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the last general elections. Even leaders like Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, who baulk at even sharing a stage with Narendra Modi lest their pro-Muslim image be damaged, accepted Advani as NDA’s leader. Advani gave multiple media interviews during the elections but one would be hard pressed to recall an interview in which the issue of the Babri Masjid merited anything beyond a perfunctory mention.</p>
<p>Can Modi replicate his mentor’s model and construct a less antagonist relationship with his critics? While impossible should never be part of the political lexicon, Modi faces an exceedingly uphill battle for multiple reasons. First, the difference in their personalities: While Modi can frequently appear coarse and unsophisticated (Miyan Musharraf), Advani retained a suave and urbane facade. Perceptions matter in politics and listening to Modi one frequently gets the impression—rightly or wrongly—of a visceral distaste for Muslims. Second, 6th December and its bloody aftermath were a series of events and it was hard to link them to a single person. Modi, on the other, was the face of India&#8217;s first televised riots. Third, Advani benefited tremendously by being closely associated with former Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee with his moderate and inclusive image. Indeed, it is to Advani&#8217;s credit that he abdicated in favour of Vajpayee during BJP&#8217;s Mumbai convention. Advani understood that the moderate Vajpayee was far more likely to be acceptable to the regional allies BJP desperately needed if it was to be a serious contender for power at the centre. Modi, on the other hand, is egotistical and dictatorial, and it is highly unlikely that he would be able to display Advani&#8217;s sagacity and wisdom of 1995. Finally, Advani worked hard at his image rehabilitation even describing 6th December as the saddest day in his life. He also benefited from fortuitous circumstances.</p>
<p>Finally, many argue that Narendra Modi should apply a healing touch to help the unfortunate victims of the riots achieve some sort of closure; they further argue that such a policy of rapprochement would likely benefit Modi politically as well. While there is little doubt that a healing touch is required, it is utterly naive to believe that it would bring any political dividends to Modi. His legions of political opponents are unlikely to find him acceptable merely because he expresses regret for the riots—10 years late. In fact, they are more likely to see it as a sign of weakness and move in for the kill. And as far as his supporters are concerned, what they find most endearing about Modi is his take no prisoners approach. An apology is unlikely to make them happy either.</p>
<p>As Advani&#8217;s example shows, the path to political rehabilitation is long and arduous. It is only likely to be tougher for Narendra Modi</p>
<p><em><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?280532">Cross-posted at Outlook Web</a></em></p>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | Gujarat budget exhibits a sound development strategy</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1661185/column-gujarat-budget-exhibits-a-sound-development-strategy</link>
         <description>In 2009-10, the share of all states combined in Indias total government expenditure and revenue was 53% and 64%, respectively.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1661185/column-gujarat-budget-exhibits-a-sound-development-strategy</guid>
         <pubDate>Mon, 12 Mar 2012 02:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohan Joshi | In Pragati: Don’t tinker with the treaty</title>
         <link>http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/2011/12/07/in-pragati-don%e2%80%99t-tinker-with-the-treaty/</link>
         <description>In December&amp;#8217;s Pragati, I caution against any attempt to substantially alter the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan.  The framework provided by the treaty has stood the test of time and has withstood the pressures of three wars.  While there is no doubt that Pakistan faces a water crisis, we in India need [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/?p=3437</guid>
         <pubDate>Thu, 08 Dec 2011 06:20:10 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In December&#8217;s <em>Pragati</em>, I caution against any attempt to substantially alter the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan.  The framework provided by the treaty has stood the test of time and has withstood the pressures of three wars.  While there is no doubt that Pakistan faces a water crisis, we in India need to tread carefully when it comes to altering aspects of IWT to accommodate Pakistan&#8217;s problems.  India&#8217;s national interest should be the only consideration in determining where we go with IWT in the future. Magnanimity is not always a virtue.</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="line-height:1.8em;">Unfortunately, the undeniable benefits of the treaty to Pakistan have been obscured by misplaced apprehension and aggression.  Ayub Khan’s fears of Pakistan’s water insecurity did not prevent him from waging war against India in 1965. Since then, Pakistan has imposed war on India twice and provokedIndia through insurgencies and terror. Yet, India continues to respect the IWT in letter and spirit, not denying Pakistan its share of water even during times of war.</p>
<p style="line-height:1.8em;">Certainly, transnational water sharing is a complicated subject. In our own region, the sharing of water between states and provinces has been an emotive issue, as evidenced by the disputes over the Kalabagh dam between the Pakistani provinces of Punjab and Sindh, and the Kaveri dispute between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. There is no denying that Pakistan’s water challenges are real, notwithstanding the dubious causes suggested. And it behooves India, as a neighbour, to help Pakistan address some of these challenges, where possible.</p>
<p style="line-height:1.8em;">However, one must recognise that Pakistan’s water problems are its own and that to a great extent, the solutions to these problems lie in Pakistan. India cannot be expected to display magnanimity towards Pakistan when Pakistan itself has not demonstrated a basic desire to tackle structural and governance issues in water management. [<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/pragati-issue57-dec2011-communityed.pdf"><em>Pragati</em></a>]</p>
</blockquote>
<p style="line-height:1.8em;">Read the article in its entireity in <em>Pragati </em>(<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-199" title="pdf_icon" src="http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/pdf_icon.gif" alt="" width="15" height="15"/> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/pragati-issue57-dec2011-communityed.pdf">PDF</a>; <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2011/12/don%e2%80%99t-tinker-with-the-treaty/">Web page</a>).</p>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohan Joshi | In Pragati: Opportunities post Arab Spring</title>
         <link>http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/2011/10/20/in-pragati-opportunities-post-arab-spring/</link>
         <description>In the October 2011 issue of Pragati, I make the case for greater Indian awareness and engagement with a rapidly changing Middle East.  India has historically walked the tightrope, balancing its relations with often warring actors in the Middle East; but India&amp;#8217;s growing stature in the world will attract more vocal criticism of what some [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/?p=3380</guid>
         <pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2011 18:40:23 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the October 2011 issue of <em>Pragati</em>, I make the case for greater Indian awareness and engagement with a rapidly changing Middle East.  India has historically walked the <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/2010/08/03/the-new-great-game-in-the-middle-east/">tightrope</a>, balancing its relations with often warring actors in the Middle East; but India&#8217;s growing stature in the world will attract more vocal criticism of what some might see as New Delhi&#8217;s duplicitous positions.</p>
<p>While India must no doubt protect and promote its national interests in this turbulent region, it must also use its goodwill to promote ideals that it holds dear.  The recent <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8838794/Gaddafi-dead-reaction-from-around-the-world.html">killing of Col. Qaddafi</a>, the <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/8695556/Without-Saudi-support-President-Bashar-al-Assads-brutal-dictatorship-in-Syria-looks-doomed.html">brutality of the al-Assad regime</a> in Syria and <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/01/world/la-fg-egypt-protest-20111001">troubling actions of the Egyptian army</a> post-Mubarak all indicate that &#8220;popular&#8221; uprisings are not a sufficient condition for the emergence of democracy in the Middle East.</p>
<p>Real democracy can only come in the Middle East through the slow, and sometimes frustrating process of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/2011/01/19/laffaire-tunisie/">legislative reform</a> that allows greater participation of citizenry in deciding their future with the support (and urging) of democracies in the West, and indeed, India.  India must learn to embrace this role as its global visibility grows.</p>
<blockquote>
<p style="line-height:1.8;">India’s growing ties with Middle Eastern countries are a reflection of its growing stature on the world stage. How India chooses to engage with these and other countries will help define what sort of power India will be. In the past, India avoided criticism of Middle Eastern countries for a myriad of reasons. While this has proven to be a successful strategy, an emerging India will increasingly be challenged on what some might perceive as duplicitous positions.</p>
<p style="line-height:1.8;">For example, while Prime Minister Manmohan Singh criticized the West for using force to bring about regime change in his speech at the UN General Assembly, he chose not to draw attention to the brutal suppression of human rights by regimes in the Middle East. While he steadfastly supported the right of the Palestinians to statehood, he refrained from drawing attention to the sub-conventional war imposed on Israel by state and non-state actors.</p>
<p style="line-height:1.8;">Worse, while India chose to abstain from a UNSC vote condemning Syria’s human rights record, its ambassador, in an interview with CNN-IBN, virtually endorsed the al-Assad regime’s brutality by dismissing reports of the number of Syrians killed during the protests as “exaggerated.” India has an interest in ensuring not only a stable Middle East, but also one where citizens have a stake in deciding their own future.</p>
<p style="line-height:1.8;">As India emerges as an important actor on the world stage, it must use its goodwill and growing power to influence its friends in the Middle East, and must work with other countries in promoting shared ideals in the region. In this regard, the India-U.S. “West Asia Dialogue” launched in July<br />
2011 is a welcome sign.</p>
</blockquote>
<p style="line-height:1.8;">Read the entire article in <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/pragati-issue55-oct2011-communityed.pdf">this month&#8217;s</a> <em>Pragati. </em>(<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://t.co/BEddO9tO">Web link</a>; <img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-199" title="pdf_icon" src="http://filtercoffee.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/pdf_icon.gif" alt="" width="15" height="15"/> PDF; 2.2 MB;)</p>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | Developing muni bonds market imperative for our urban future</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1592406/comment-developing-muni-bonds-market-imperative-for-our-urban-future</link>
         <description>The need for vastly increased levels of investment in urban infrastructure and amenities require urgent attention of the policymakers.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1592406/comment-developing-muni-bonds-market-imperative-for-our-urban-future</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 28 Sep 2011 02:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Rohit Pradhan | No Counter-Revolution Please</title>
         <link>http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/no-counter-revolution-please/</link>
         <description>Preserving India’s constitutional democracy is more important than a feel-good agitations In my article in the September issue of Pragati-The Indian National interest Review, I argue that while Anna Hazare&amp;#8217;s agitation has rightly focused the nation&amp;#8217;s attention on the issue of corruption, its adoption of blatantly  unconstitutional means ultimately undermines Indian democracy and would only [...]</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://retributions.nationalinterest.in/?p=1461</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 07 Sep 2011 01:46:15 +0000</pubDate>
         <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Preserving India’s constitutional democracy is more important than a feel-good agitations</strong></p>
<p>In my article in the September issue of <em>Pragati</em>-The Indian National interest Review, I argue that while Anna Hazare&#8217;s agitation has rightly focused the nation&#8217;s attention on the issue of corruption, its adoption of blatantly  unconstitutional means ultimately undermines Indian democracy and would only be counter-productive in the long-term,</p>
<blockquote><p>Nevertheless, the methods adopted by Mr. Hazare must give pause to every Indian who retains faith in India’s constitutional democracy. As many other commentators have enumerated, his so-called Jan Lokpal bill itself suffers from many lacunae and is hardly the panacea to the ills of corruption. Worse, it appears to violate the constitutionally mandated division of power between different pillars of the state. In any case, no single body—howsoever constitutionally well-protected—can single-handedly tackle corruption which pervades virtually every aspect of Indian society.</p>
<p>But forget what may be wrong with Mr. Hazare’s bill for a moment. After all, the government’s proposed Lokpal bill is hardly perfect in itself and suffers from serious deficiencies which may severely handicap its functioning. What is truly troubling though is Mr. Hazare’s reliance on blatantly unconstitutional means to push forward his legislation. Instead of attempting to reform the system, he has harnessed populist disgust and attempted to hijack the entire political process. What is particularly offensive is his gimmickry resort to repeated bouts of fasting [<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2011/09/no-counter-revolution-please/">link</a>]</p></blockquote>
<p>Download the latest issue of Pragati to read the rest.</p>]]></content:encoded>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | Establishing IAPD is consistent with geo-economic initiatives</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1581787/comment-establishing-iapd-is-consistent-with-geo-economic-initiatives</link>
         <description>Indias economic and strategic interests have increasingly become global.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1581787/comment-establishing-iapd-is-consistent-with-geo-economic-initiatives</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2011 02:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | CAG deserves a more prominent role in public financial management</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1572053/column-cag-deserves-a-more-prominent-role-in-public-financial-management</link>
         <description>Various reports CAG of India have played an important role in the ongoing debates on weak governance and corruption in the country.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1572053/column-cag-deserves-a-more-prominent-role-in-public-financial-management</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 03 Aug 2011 02:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | Why the Microfinance Bill is a good move</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1567135/comment-why-the-microfinance-bill-is-a-good-move</link>
         <description>The new draft microfinance Bill, on the finance ministry's website, has a number of positive features which augur well for a geographically more balanced and healthier development of the sector.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1567135/comment-why-the-microfinance-bill-is-a-good-move</guid>
         <pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 00:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | EPFO needs restructuring, not  changes</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1562706/column-epfo-needs-restructuring-not-changes</link>
         <description>The EPFO (Employees Provident Fund Organisation), established in 1952, with the responsibilities for provident fund and pension services, is reportedly considering amendments to its Act.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1562706/column-epfo-needs-restructuring-not-changes</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 06 Jul 2011 02:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | Promote urban agriculture for food security</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1558003/comment-promote-urban-agriculture-for-food-security</link>
         <description>As Indian households strive to maintain food consumption in the face of high inflation, increasing demand and relatively slower rise in supply, promoting urban agriculture in a scientific manner could contribute to food security.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1558003/comment-promote-urban-agriculture-for-food-security</guid>
         <pubDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2011 21:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
      <item>
         <title>Mukul Asher | Better planning for longevity risk  is essential</title>
         <link>http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1552421/column-better-planning-for-longevity-risk-is-essential</link>
         <description>The United Nations projects for India that life expectancy at birth will increase to 66.5 for the 2015-2020 period against 63.5 in 2005-10 and female life expectancy is estimated to be higher than those of males by 3.3 years during 2015-20.</description>
         <guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.dnaindia.com/money/1552421/column-better-planning-for-longevity-risk-is-essential</guid>
         <pubDate>Tue, 07 Jun 2011 20:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
      </item>
   </channel>
</rss><!-- fe1.yql.bf1.yahoo.com compressed/chunked Thu May 23 00:27:10 UTC 2013 -->
