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When Exactly did Manny Start Cheating?

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Everyone that reads this site knows that I’m a huge Cardinals fan.  But at the risk of sounding completely sacrilegious, outside of Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez is my favorite player.  The guy is one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time, he plays the game with a carefree, fun attitude, and before yesterday I would lament constantly that the game needs more players like him.  Say what you want about his greed, his poor defensive skills, or one of the other many things that people nitpick him about- he’s great for the game.

As the news broke I held out hope that something went totally awry and the commissioner’s office would make an announcement that it was some ingredient in a prescription drug that triggered the positive.  Maybe it was some supplement that was tainted.  I traded text messages back and forth with my brother about this all afternoon. 

His original message read:  “Manny used performance enhancers”.  I figured he was joking.  My family constantly messes with me and my love for the game of baseball.  I’m extremely gullible on subjects like this so I tuned into ESPN and there it was.  It knocked me back.

“It’s not ‘roids,” I told him.  “Supposedly the commissioner’s office is supposed to make an announcement about it.”   That’s what the talking heads were saying so I was relived.  Manny couldn’t cheat the game, no way.

“Do you believe it?”  He asked.  “What are they saying it is?”

“A prescription drug prescribed by a doctor for a personal medical condition,” I told him.

At least that’s what they were saying.  Scott Boras, Manny’s agent, had just went through this with Alex Rodriguez. He’s watched as his ‘confession’ was torn apart over the last month. He knows the repercussions of lying. Besides, he’s watched enough players go through this that there was no way that they would be stupid enough to lie about it again, right?  Anyone that has followed this over the last five years knows that admitting to everything is the only way to get past it.  Manny was telling the truth, I was convinced.

“But do you believe it?” He asked again.

“Yea.  100 percent,” I told him.  “Manny loves baseball too much to deliberately cheat the game.”

Well, apparently I was wrong.  He had me completely fooled.  All these years I championed the guy.  I defended him when he was playing his way out of Boston.  There were a few times that I turned against him, a few times I felt he was selfish, but I always came back to him.  I opined for the Cardinals to make a run at him this offseason.   I believed in Manny because Manny believed in baseball.

There were countless stories about his work ethic, his love for the game, how he was a great teammate.  He seemed to respect the process of hitting as much as anyone since Ted Williams.  This guy was the perfect hitter, he didn’t need to cheat.

No longer will I ever defend him.  There’s no one left to believe in.  At this point I’m sketchy about EVERYONE.  I never thought I’d feel that way.  My man Albert is great friends with Manny.  I started pushing for Manny to come to Saint Louis only after Albert had.  What’s that say about him?  It could say everything, or it could say nothing. Now that I think about it, he’s been linked to a shady person or two in the past.

All I’m saying is check out David Ortiz’s line.  This guy has as much circumstantial evidence surrounding him as anyone.  His power is gone, he has ligament injuries that are signature steroid related ailments…

Ahh forget it.  I’m not going to let this ruin my love for the game.  I can’t.

On a sidenote:

What is everyone thinking about Scott Boras now?  A lot of his guys are testing positive for steroids, does he play a role in this?  Do teams avoid Boras clients now because of this?

Anyways, a lot has happened in the first month of the baseball season so I’ll tackle a couple of topics to get to get back up to speed here.

Umm, David, the season started…

A lot of people were worried about how David Ortiz would produce after Manny split last season, and I was among them, but I never thought it would get this bad.  He actually played pretty well in the second half last season.  He wasn’t the All-Star slugger that we have seen in the past, but he wasn’t a liability.  Now he is.

At this point his bat isn’t even serviceable and a drop in the order to, say, the seventh or eighth spot may not be too far off if he doesn’t start hitting the ball, regardless of what Tito has said.  The guy has absolutely no bat speed left and his power is completely evaporated.  This could be a lingering result of his wrist injury, but it might be even deeper than that.  Let’s just say that I wouldn’t surprised if his name was one of the 103 on that notorious 2003 list of steroid users.

I just don’t see how you can keep a guy in the top half of the order when he’s hitting .208/.298/.304 with no homers.  I mean, you know things are bad when your slugging percentage is a mere six points higher than your OBP.

Will the Cubs be Waiting for Next Year

We all know the saying, “You can’t win a pennant in April but you can lose one.” 

It’s probably way too soon for the Cubs to start panicking about their season but if they stay at this pace they’ll be waiting for next year by the time June rolls around.  They just rolled off three straight wins to bring their record to 13-11 on the season, but there are warning signs everywhere.

Their big off-season acquisition, Milton Bradley, can’t stay on the field and looks more like the injury prone guy that couldn’t stay on the field than the one who hit .321/.436/.563 last season.  And speaking of guys that have higher OBP’s than slugging percentages:  Bradley has an impossible line of .116/.296/.256 right now. 

Geovany Soto is finally starting to hit the ball as he went 4-for-11 in his last three games, but he ended April with a .109/.294/.193 line.

Then there’s Derrek Lee, who looks like he can’t even get around on a pitch anymore.  According to SI.com he has hit only six homers in his last 100 games.

With the Cardinals surging early they might find themselves in a hole before they even realize they fell into one.

Early High Profile Busts

Matt Holliday:  .233/.281/.367 two homers, 15 RBI, four doubles

The whole Coors field debate on this guy might be drawing to a close before it even started.  Too bad for Billy Beane because he probably had no intention of hanging onto this guy after July 31, but by the time that date rolls around he may not have much trade value left.  He’s not even protecting the young pitchers, which was his primary purpose when they grabbed him up.

Mark Teixeira:  .182/.354/.338, three homers, 10 RBI, three doubles

He’s not even hitting the ball well in that hitters paradise they just built in the Bronx.  He’s too good to keep slumping, but with the mounting pressure from the fans and media that magnifying glass is only going to get stronger.  I bet they can’t wait for A-Rod to get back… wait…

CC Sabathia:  4.85, 1.385 WHIP, 24 K, 15 BB

He’ll work out of this.  Sabathia is historically a slow starter, just don’t expect him to pitch like he’s in Milwaukee anymore.

Bouncing Back

Justin Verlander

Verlander looks like he’s about to take it back to his 2007 form.  After getting shelled in his first five starts for 21 runs in as many innings, he’s given up one in his last 14.  His line for those two starts:  2-0, 0.64 ERA, 20 SO, 3 BB, nine hits.

Phil Hughes

Keep an eye on Hughes.  Hell, go pick him up in your fantasy leagues, it might just pay off.  Hughes was the top prospect in the Yankees organization for a number of years and everyone was trying to get them to deal him.  There’s a reason they didn’t dump him for Johan Santana- because he can pitch.  In his first start of the season he went six scoreless innings and struck out six.

We’re the Best

The players in each league so far shouldn’t really surprise anyone.  In the AL the award goes to Evan Longoria.  The Rays have gotten off to a slow start behind some disappointing pitching, but Longoria hasn’t suffered at all.  He’s currently hitting .365/.421/.708 with seven homers and a league leading 30 RBI.

In the NL, it goes to none other than Albert Pujols.  There’s really not much more I can say about this guy, he’s already one of the five best players to pick up a bat.  His line:  .356/.468/.724, league leading nine homers, league leading 29 RBI, league leading 25 runs, league leading 1.192 OPS, league leading 63 total bases.

What are some of the more encouraging things you’ve seen your last few outings?

Dontrelle Willis:  I’m just having fun.  I’m not worried about numbers.  I just want to go out there and play my style of baseball which is staying loose and having fun.

Your control has been good the last few times you’ve thrown:

DW:  So far so good.  I’m not too complex of a man.  I just want to go out there and have fun and play hard.  That’s about  it.  I’m simple like Kool-Aid:  water and sugar, that’s it.

What kind of pitch count do they have you on right now?

DW:  I couldn’t tell you.  I’m not trying to be secretive, I just don’t like to even know.  I just go out there and compete until they point down to the bullpen, whenever that is.  I think they like that I don’t get too caught up in that.  When it’s my day to pitch, it’s my day to pitch, whether it be 100 pitches or 150 pitches I’ll throw as long as I can.  I just want them to give me that leeway to perform.

Since you have been on the DL what have you been working on?  Have they been working with you on your command and mechanics?

DW:  I’m just focusing on having fun.  Like I said man, when I think about other things I overheat.  I’m not a complex man.  I just want to go out there and play.  I love playing baseball regardless of where it is or where I’m at.  I love being around the camaraderie.  I just like being around baseball.  This is fun.  We’re a blessed few.  The only thing I’ve worked on is to have fun and be loose and really enjoy it.  I think the progression is good because I’m not worrying about mechanics and that; I’m just letting happen on its own.

The last time many of us saw you was in spring training and halfway through the game you abandoned your simplified mechanics and brought out the big leg kick, does that mean it’s here to stay?

DW:  I don’t know about that.  Not so much that but I am trying to have fun with it again.  I think people see the sincerity in that regardless of what the score is.  At the end of the day we’re all having fun.  At the end of the day this is a backyard game and I’m just trying to enjoy it.

How hard has it been falling out of the big leagues and trying to get back?

DW:  It’s not that bad, I’m playing baseball.  There’s worse things than coming up in the minor leagues.  I’m blessed.  Like I said before, keeping things simple.  You have to be honest with yourself as a man and as a baseball player.  I’ve been able to work on that and some other things I want to work on.  It’s not only baseball stuff, it’s personality stuff.  You know, not putting the gun to my head on every pitch and just being able to go out there and fun.  I need to just start throwing the ball and let it happen.  I think that goes hand in hand in any work place.  If guys are happy working anywhere they’re more efficient.

What’s going on with the anxiety?

DW:  I feel great.  I felt great when they put me on the DL too.  That wasn’t my call.  That’s something they figured out and saw in me, and I was like, ‘hey, I’m all for it.’  I’m not no doctor, I’m a baseball player, so when they started talking to me I was like hey alright, whatever I can do to be a better person, as long as I’m ok I’m fine with that.  I’m a person before I’m a baseball player, so my health comes first.

Did it affect you on the field?

DW:  Honestly I care too much if anything.  I’m a baseball player; I don’t have anxiety when I play baseball.  I worry about other things like bills and stuff like that (laughs).

Do you have Detroit in your sights?

DW:  I’m very excited about getting back to Detroit.  Guys up there are battling and rooting me on and keeping in touch.  I heard Zumaya and Bonderman are progressing real well.  They’re battling up there and you always want to be part of the fight.

Why would anyone let this guy anywhere near a college campus?  Aren’t these places supposed to be beacons of moral integrity and institutions of higher learning?  I know both of those phrases are used rather loosely but bringing in Isiah “Thompson”, as the president of Florida International loving referred to him during his introduction earlier this week, is a new low.  How is he in a position to teach these players anything about life?

Isn’t this the same guy that was forced to pay $11 million dollars to a woman he sexually harassed last year?  So what’s he going to tell his players on the road?  Don’t bring any women up to your rooms, unless, of course, you let the coach check them out first- then it’s ok.

All jokes aside, I just don’t understand the reasoning behind this.  Do people really want to play for Thomas?  What parent would want this man to be their child’s mentor?  Beyond that, hasn’t he already fully displayed his complete incompetence when it comes to managing- well, anything?

Let’s just take a brief look at his recent track record:

He took over the Contiental Basketball Association in 1998, by 2000 it was bankrupt.

In 2000 he took over as coach of the Pacers, who in the previous year reached the Eastern Conference Finals under Larry Bird.  The next three years saw them lose in the first round of the playoffs after he dismantled the roster and filled it with young players.  He was fired in 2003.

In December of the next season he took over as the  Knicks coach.  He quickly turned the league’s signature franchise into one of the most poorly operated teams in all of professional sports, and clearly demonstrated his incompetence as a talent evaluator by singing players like Jerome James and Jared Jeffries to full mid-level exception contracts.  Under Thomas the team tied the franchise record for losses in a season with 59 in his final game as coach.

If he can’t judge the talent of NBA players, how is he ever going to be able to tell apart quality high school players?  He’s clearly a poor coach and wouldn’t know a good player if he saw one, so it must be his character, right?

Probably not.  This is a guy that was willing to throw his own daughter under the bus when he ‘accidentally’ overdosed on sleeping pills last October, stating that it was his 17-year old daughter who had taken the pills and was getting treated, not him.  If he’s willing to sell out his own family to save his ass, then what is going to happen when FIU drops a couple of back-to-back games?  Is he going to take the blame, or is he going to alienate all of his players and sell them out to make himself look better?

Good luck FIU, and whoever decides to strap em up and go into battle with this man.  If nothing else, it will be entertaining for the spectators.  Isiah is always good for an amazing story, it’s just too bad it will be at the expense of young men this time and not millionaire professionals.

Watching Chris Carpenter come back and pitch a seven inning, two hit, shut-out gem in his first game back only to watch him walk off the field clutching his ribs after his next start was the equivalent of having the hottest chick in the bar come up and hit on you, talk to you all night, agree to come home with you, then when it’s time to leave she laughs at you and tells you it was all a joke.  In other words, it was crushing.

He’s been placed on the 15-day DL, but these types of injuries tend to have a lingering effect.  As brilliant reader Mark pointed out, when Woody Williams hit the DL with a similar injury it took him nearly a month and a half before he was back to 100%.  But we aren’t talking about Williams here, this is Chris Carpenter, and things never quite seem to work out with him.

If this becomes a lingering problem, I just don’t see how the Cardinals can compete without him.  Adam Wainwright is a bonafide ace and has been absolutely stellar his first two starts, Kyle Lohse has also came blasting through the gate and has gotten off to a great start, but do you really want to trust Todd Wellenmeyer, Joel Pinero, and Mitchell Boggs with 66% of your starts?  I know I don’t, especially not with this bullpen.

Last year if they would have had a serviceable, proven, closer they could have easily made up the four game deficit and won the Central.  This year it has only gotten worse.  The bullpen blew Tuesday night’s game allowing the Diamondbacks to score three runs in the eighth, and they also blew the opener against Pittsburgh.  That’s two games, and we’re only nine in.

They might have to do something here.  There’s still plenty of talent up for grabs out there, and even if Carpenter makes his way back in a timely manner, they could still use an upgrade over Joel Pinerio at the back of the rotation.

Just in case you weren’t aware of how quick things can change this early in the season, if this article would have been written yesterday this section would have been titled:  “Holliday can’t hit away from Coors.”  But, after a 3-for-4 performance last night against the Red Sox, he brought his average all the way up from .235 to .333 and his OPS jumped from .644 to .893.

Also promising is that he’s still driving in runs, and has a double and triple under his belt, just no home runs yet.

What’s up with the Award winning hurlers?

Everyone out side of the greater Cleveland area expected Cliff Lee to falter this season, maybe not as badly as expected, but we all saw the backlash coming.  So the real question is:  what the hell is going on with Tim Lincecum?

Historically, he’s not a slow starter by any means.  His career April line reads:  44.2 IP, 2.82 ERA, 50 SO, 21 BB, and that’s including the dreadful 7.56 ERA, 10 SO and six walks he’s put through his first 8.1 innings.

The question with Lee is which pitcher he really is.  Last year he had a historical April, allowing only four earned runs through his first 37.2 innings.  He’s almost already tripled that number through ten innings this year.  This guy is either extremely good, or extremely bad.  In 2007 he wasn’t good enough to stick around.  In 2005 he posted a 3.79 ERA and finished fourth in Cy Young voting.  The year before that he was at 5.43.  So, if you were to follow the trend here….

The comeback kid

Winning the comeback player of the year award is kind of a bitter-sweet pill to swallow.  By winning it you know you did something right in your rehab, you worked your butt off, and you’re back on top of your game.  It also means that your career got completely derailed.

Chris Carpenter already captured the award once in 2004, and if he continues to pitch even half as good as he did in his debut against Pittsburgh (7 IP, 1 H, 7 K, 2 BB) he should have no problem winning his second one.

This is big for the Cardinals, because without Carpenter they were a third place team that finished four games out of first.  With him they could compete for the division crown.

Players of the week

This one is a no-brainer, it goes to a pair of hardware winners from a year ago.  In the American League Evan Longoria gets the nod for bashing an astonishing five homers and posting a hefty .467/.484/1.100 line.  In the NL last year’s MVP winner, Albert Pujols, is continuing the grow into an unstoppable hitting machine.  His four homers, ten RBI, and .357/.471/.821 line has the Cardinals sitting pretty in first base.  His seven RBI, two homer game earlier this week is definitely the signature game of the week.  The only question left about Albert is:  how much better can this guy possibly get?  He struck out once in 34 plate appearances last week.  Insane.

Well, right now, baseball in New York can’t be much fun for anyone, especially if you are a member of their newly formed millionaire boys club.

Yeah, it’s early.  Way too early to form opinions on anything, especially whether or not a free-agent signing is going to pay off, but that hasn’t stopped the New York faithful from jumping into their new yearly rendition of panic and pandemonium.  You’d swear that they were 10 games back of the wild card with only nine left on their schedule judging from the early reactions, but if you’ve taken a look at your trusty wallet schedule then you’d know that they are only 2-2 right now.

That doesn’t matter though, the heckling from the media and fans have already begun.  Following the first game of the season, the streets of New York were inundated with headlines such as:  “CC and Tex Stink it up in Opener”, and “Big Money Men make Poor Impressions”.

Sure, Sabathia was awful in the opener.  He went 4 1/3 innings, allowed six runs, eight hits, and walked five while failing to record a strikeout for the first time in his career, but what did the Yankees think they were getting?  A superstar? If that’s what they want, then they are going to have to be willing to take the good with the bad.  Sabathia has a career ERA of 4.67 in the first month of the season, and last year that number sat at 7.88 heading into May.

So when does baseball stop being fun?  Well, CC, I hate to tell you that the joy of the game gets stripped away as soon as you don the Yankee pinstripes.  Just ask Alex Rodriguez.  Not too many people have ever done anything as well as he plays baseball, yet he is heckled and stoned at every cross in New York.  He hits .314/.422/.645 with 54 homers, 156 RBI and wins the MVP award and they want to know why he didn’t win the Triple Crown.  Yeah, he cheated to get to where he is, but we didn’t know that until recently.

The point is, if CC were to pitch a no-hitter the fans and media would want to know why he walked a batter.  If he wins the pitching triple crown but loses a game in the playoffs, it won’t matter.  Forget that they wouldn’t be in the playoffs without his 0.85 ERA- or whatever crazy number he posts-, it won’t matter if he pitches two complete games with 52 strikeouts in the playoffs if he allows a homerun in each and loses, he’ll be a failure and choke artist.

So, yeah, I think baseball stops being fun when the people watching and covering the games lose their passion for the game and never understood what it’s all really about to begin with.  This isn’t a game that is won in lost through dollar bills -or at least that’s not what is intended- because when it becomes about that, it stops being fun.

So maybe that day when it stops being fun comes sooner in New York than it would in -say- Milwaukee or Los Angeles, or anywhere else in the country.

Seriously, is there a better time of year than April?  You have the Final Four and NCAA championship game, the start of the NBA playoffs, the Masters, the NFL Draft, and opening day in baseball.  There’s something for everybody.  Oh, yeah, there’s the hockey playoffs too, if you’re into that sort of thing.

So on that note, I suppose it’s time to roll out our predictions for the new baseball season.  Some of these might be crazy, but what’s the point of making a prediction that everyone knows is going to happen?  There’s no point in even saying that the Angels will win the West, because everyone already knows they will.  They also aren’t going to be totally insane either, like:  the Pirates will have a winning record, because, let’s face it, they won’t.  So these are just a collection of a few things that might happen.

1.  The Rays will win the East

Everyone, and I mean everyone, has the East as Boston and New York in the first and second slots with the Rays in a not so distant third.  This is a mistake.  I understand that a quarter billion dollar spending spree can change the tides dramatically, but not more than a year of seasoning and confidence building for a young team that reached the World Series last year.

This Yankees team is still extremely flawed.  I spoke about Joba Chamberlain and his mysterious loss of velocity earlier this spring and said that we needed to take a wait and see approach.  Well, we’ve waited, and right about…. now is the time to start worrying about him.  His mechanics are still looking awful and his velocity is way down, and the season is only a couple days away.  Derek Jeter is only getting older and slower, and if his name was -say- Alex Rodriguez, he’d have been moved to the outfield a couple years ago.  And, speaking of Rodriguez, he is a major liability right now.  AJ Burnett will get hurt at some point this year because, as we all know, he seems to only perform well during contract years.  Then there’s their outfield:  Damon, Brett Gardner, and Xavier Nady.  Not good.

Then there’s the Rays.  This team is already a defensive beast, which is the main reason their pitchers have enjoyed so much success, and their offense is only going to get better.  Evan Longoria is a legitimate MVP candidate, Pat Burrell gives them that big stick they lacked last season, and if BJ Upton can build on his postseason success he could be a darkhorse to win the MVP award.

Not only do I think the Yanks will miss out on the pennant, they’re going to miss the playoffs altogether.

2. Edison Volquez wins the Cy Young Award

The smart would be on Tim Lincecum repeating here, but I think this award falls into Volquez’s lap.  It doesn’t hurt that this team should be improved this season, thus giving him a few more wins.  Besides that, all he really needs to take it to the next level is a little more stamina.  As late as August 30th, he had a 2.80 ERA with a 15-5 record, and was averaging 8 stirkeouts per nine.  He broke down in September, eliminating any chance he had to steal the award from Tiny Tim, but the ability is clearly there for him to contend this season.

3.  Matt Holliday will disappoint, Oakland finishes with losing record

I think we all agree that Holliday will have to have a huge season for Oakland to compete in the West, right?  Good.  To make my case here all I need to do is show you this:

Career Home Statistics:

.357/.423/.645, 84 homers, 307 RBI, 106 doubles over 1,353 at-bats

Career Road Statistics:

.280/.348/.455, 44 homers, 176 RBI, 82 doubles over 1,303 at-bats

The guy is a doubles hitter away from Coors Field and now he’s going to a more spacious, open park.  That doesn’t bode well for him.  I’m not one to doubt Billy Beane because whenever I have he’s always made me look stupid, but this time I just can’t shake the feeling that he made a huge mistake here.  If Holliday doesn’t perform his trade value gets cut dramatically.

4.  The Cardinals win the Central

This is probably the boldest prediction of the pack.  The Cubs are the clear favorites here, and if anything goes wrong for the Cards they could easily end up finishing third, but if things go right the sky’s the limit.  And by going right, I mean if Chris Carpenter stays healthy.  I’ve already accounted for Chris Duncan and the fact that he has as much defensive ability as Manny Ramirez after an all night bender, and for the fact that Ryan Ludwick will likely see a sizeable decline in his production this year.  I know that Troy Glaus is already hurt and that the Skip Schumaker experiment could end in tragedy, but as long as the Cardinals have a healthy Carp, Wainwright and Pujols give them a chance to shock the world.  This team was in it until the finish last year and that was without Carp and a battered Wainwright.  With both those guys healthy….  Maybe, just maybe.

5.  Rick Porcello will hit the DL by July

Just read this.

Agree, disagree?  Got some predictions of your own?  Let us know.

The same rings true for Adam Dunn, no matter how underrated and underappreciated he has become.

Life is different in Cincinnati.  Historically, this is a franchise that has harbored their players and allowed them to grow old with the organization or they’d go out and chase former stars that were well past their prime.  Barry Larkin was afforded the opportunity to lineup at shortstop well into his twilight years until he finally retired after the 2004 season at the age of 40.  Before Larkin became the senior citizen of this franchise, there was Benito Santiago, Donte Bachette, Greg Vaughn, and 100 other mishaps that impeded the development of their young players.

But now, with Dunn and Griffey gone, there’s a youth movement building some momentum in Cincinnati.  The new cornerstones of this franchise are- well- kids.  There’s Jay Bruce, age 22.  Joey Votto, 25.  Edinson Volquez, 25.  Johnny Cueto, 23.  And the wily-veteran of the group is Brandon Phillips, 27.

At the risk of using the hottest cliché in baseball, this team is being built like last year’s Rays.  They don’t have a big name player.  Anyone of these players could sit down next to you in the mall food court and chances are you’d have no idea who they were.

As much as the town might have loved Griffey, he had to go so this franchise could forge ahead and prosper.  They had eight straight losing seasons with him, it was time for him to move out of the way and let the kids try to find their way on their own, if they tack up another losing season or two in the process, then so be it, at least it’s for the good of the franchise.

This team probably won’t win now.  They probably won’t finish any higher than fourth place in the NL Central, but that’s not important right now.  What is important is that these young guys get out on the field and learn how to win together, because with this core they could be good for a really long time once it all starts to click for them.

In the rotation there’s Cueto and Volquez, who combined for 364 strikeouts in 370 innings.  Right now, Cueto is probably only a really good third starter on most teams until he builds up his endurance and learns how to pitch in the Major Leagues, but he has all the talent in the world and could eventually be the ace of this staff.  Volquez is good enough to compete for the Cy Young award right now.

On offense there’s Phillips, the only second baseman to average 20 homers and 25 steals the last three years.  But more importantly, there’s Bruce and Votto, who are on the verge of superstardom. 

Bruce, the consensus pick for Minor League Player of the year in 2007, was called up last May to much fanfare, and he didn’t disappoint.  Over his first 12 games he showed everyone what all the clamoring was about by hitting .457 with three homers.  Then he came back down to earth, hitting .229 with a paltry .280 OBP down the stretch.  He did, however, add 19 more homeruns along the way.

Bruce may be the most heralded prospect in the organization, but Votto is no slouch himself.  Last year he put on his own show by hitting .297 with 24 homers while slugging a hefty .506, finishing second in rookie of the year voting.

What better secanario could there be for a team trying to rebuild for the long haul?  You have two, young, super prospects feeding off each other in the rotation, pushing each other to get better, and another pair in the lineup. 

You never know:  if everything clicks, this team could be in the mix in a year or two, and once they get there, they aren’t leaving until they are ready.

If I had a vote, there is no way that I would cast it for Schilling, but I don’t condemn those who say otherwise. The thing about Schilling is that he had some impressive moments. No one who was around during 2004 will ever forget the bloody sock game, and although these types of things shouldn’t carry any bearing on the voting process, they matter a whole lot.

He was always willing to give a reporter- the very same reporters who vote- a golden quote, he made himself accessible to the fans and the community, and he always displayed a fan-like love for the game and cities he played for. There are stories about him chatting it up with the posters at the Sonsofsamhorn.com message boards prior to signing with Boston so he could get a feel for the city and fan base he was considering signing with, these are the kind of stories people love.

That aura he created everywhere he played goes a long way in the voting process, probably further than it should, but this system isn’t infallible or immune to bias because it is conducted and carried out by humans. If you are a cusp player and constantly dogged the press, were a clubhouse cancer, and alienated yourself from the fans, you aren’t going to get those last couple votes to put you over the 75% threshold. If you treat the press with some degree of respect, give them the quotes they need to write a story, are accessible to the community, and play the game with a child-like enthusiasm, chances are you are going to get those last few votes needed to walk through the gates of Cooperstown.

I’m not saying it’s fair, but that’s the way it is. Schilling’s statistics alone- which is the only thing that matters here- puts him right on the fringe. In my book, he’s on the wrong side of it but he’ll probably get in because of all the other things he did.

Schilling did do some things that, on paper, are extremely impressive. His strikeout to walk ratio (3116:711- the statistic that everyone has been pointing to over the last week- is out of this world, but those very same people fail to realize that he also gave up 347 career home runs, the 26^th highest total of all-time. Sure, there are 11 players in the hall that have given more than him, but all of them threw more innings than Schilling, and of those, nine had tallied up at least a thousand more than him.

His 216 wins are nice enough, they place him 82^nd all-time, and there are some notable players below him. Some of them are already in the Hall, such as: Don Drysdale, Bob Lemon, Hal Newhouser, and Rube Marquad. Then there are others like Pedro Martinez who have less wins and are pretty much assured a spot in Cooperstown when they decide to hang it up, but there is one, huge, fundamental difference between Schilling and all the others: it didn’t take them 20 years to get there.

Schilling has only won more than 15 games five times in his 20 years in the league. His .597 win percentage is good, not great. He never won the Cy Young award. He made only six all-star games. What you have here is a good pitcher, a very good pitcher, but not a great one.

Longevity is really what haunts him. Schilling stuck around for 20 years, and while that’s a very long time for anyone, let alone for a pitcher, he was only dominating for about four of those seasons. He picked up 1,228 strikeouts in those seasons and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball from 1997-98, and again from 2001-2002, those four seasons accounting for nearly 40% of his strikeouts. Some people might look at that and think it’s impressive, but in all actuality, it’s a detriment to his Cooperstown candidacy. Those other 16 seasons he only averaged 118 strikeouts, making his total rather suspect.

I think if you take away those postseason moments, not many people would even be talking about him right now. Sure, he was 11-2 in the postseason, the NLCS MVP in 1993 and a World Series MVP in 2001, but this isn’t the NFL. Postseason heroics mean a lot, but the amount of rings a player wins doesn’t define him or his legacy. It’s not like Greg Maddux is going to get left out in the cold because he has a sub-.500 postseason record, just like Orlando Hernandez doesn’t deserve to get in because he was 12-3 in the playoffs with a 2.55 ERA.

It’s like Joe Posnanski wrote, if you take the dressing off Schilling he’s essentially Kevin Brown:

“Pitcher A: 216-146.
Pitcher B: 211-144.

Pitcher A: 3.46 ERA.
Pitcher B: 3.28 ERA.

Pitcher A: 127 ERA+.
Pitcher B: 127 ERA+

Pitcher A: 3,261 innings pitched.
Pitcher B: .3,256 innings pitched.

Pitcher A: Six-time All-Star.
Pitcher B: Six-time All-Star.

Pitcher A: Zero ERA titles.
Pitcher B: Two ERA titles.

Pitcher A: Twice led the league in victories.
Pitcher B: Once led the league in victories.

Pitcher A: 3-1 with 0.93 ERA in Division Series.
Pitcher B: 3-0 with 0.98 ERA in Division Series.

Pitcher A: Nine seasons with 200+ innings pitched.
Pitcher B: Nine seasons with 200+ innings pitched.

And so on. Now, obviously I am cherry picking a bit on my stats … that’s part of the game. I could tell you that Pitcher A is 4-1 in the World Series with a 2.06 ERA and a bloody sock, and you would know that’s Schilling. I could tell you that Pitcher B is 0-3 in the World Series with a 6.04 ERA, and he was named in the Mitchell Report and you might know that’s Kevin Brown.”

Schilling was a great warrior, a solid pitcher, who was great some of the time, but not all the time. It’s up to you to decide if that’s good enough for the Hall-of-Fame. For me, it isn’t. For someone else, it might be. I can’t argue if you differ from me because Schilling is just one of those players that is hard to define because there was so much more going on around him than what registered in a box score.

In a way, I think it’s already fitting how Schilling has been immortalized. The bloody sock is already enshrined, preserving the part of Schillings legacy that deserves to be remember. His heroics in October are straight out of a storybook, but the other eight months of the year he was merely human, like the rest of us. The sock belongs, the man doesn’t.

The guy has spent the better part of two years as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. He made one of the gutsiest saves in recent memory when he took strutted out of the bullpen last October and preserved the lead that qualified the Rays for their first World Series in franchise history, against the mighty Red Sox, no less. That alone would qualify him as a lock for most team’s rotations. Just not the Rays’.

So, maybe he just struggled this spring and needs some more seasoning. I mean, what happened yesterday doesn’t count today, so that must be it, right? That explanation isn’t working either. Price has cruised all spring and has looked absolutely unhittable this spring, racking up a 1.08 ERA.

Really, speaking strictly in terms of talent, they have no reason to keep him down on the farm- we are talking about a guy that faced 24 hitters in October and allowed only two hits. I don’t think any of the 29 other teams in this league could keep this guy down, but we aren’t talking about them, we’re talking about the Rays. They’re extremely patient. They don’t rush things. Unlike the Tigers, who have been tinkering with the idea of placing Rick Porcello in their Opening Day rotation, they only make the moves that are going to help the franchise over the long term. If they sacrifice a few games today so they can win tomorrow, then so be it.

The Rays haven’t made an official announcement about this situation, but the prevailing opinion here is that this is a bad move because he’s already signed through the 2012 season. I’m not sure where this misconception started; I’d have to guess it was with ESPN’s Jayson Stark, but whatever the case may be, this is just simply poor journalism.

Price’s draft contract is through 2012 for the purposes of allocating his bonus money, true indeed, but he will not be eligible for free agency until 2014 or 2015, depending on when his arbitration clock gets started.

So, yes, if the goal here is to ensure that he will be under their control for an extra season, then yes, this is a good move. But I highly doubt it’s about that. Everyone cried fowl last year when they optioned to keep Evan Longoria in the minors at the start of the season, but he was in the bigs for good by April 12, and signed to a nine year deal six days later.

No matter how good Price has looked in spring games, or over the 19.2 innings he threw down the stretch and in the postseason, he isn’t a finished product yet.

“It’s a fine line,” GM Andrew Friedman said, “because we’re so reliant on our young players, and we always will be. So development has to be the key. We can’t do something that provides a slight benefit in ‘09 if it’s going to be detrimental to 2010, ‘11 and ‘12. We can’t run away from that. We have to maintain that mindset, or we will not be able to sustain success.”

He needs more seasoning. We saw Price in a relief role last season during the playoffs, and while he was dominate in that stretch, that doesn’t necessarily translate to success as a starter. He got by with two pitches: a fastball and slider. While those are both deadly weapons for him, he needed a third pitch to work off of as a starter, so he recently began throwing a changeup. The pitch has been very effective for him during the spring, but Joe Maddon wants him to continue to work on it before he moves up the ladder into the Rays rotation.

“If you look at his track record in the minor leagues, he has done well, but a lot of high pitch counts after four or five innings, etc. We don’t want that to be a part of his game,” Maddon explained.

The other thing Price needs to work on is his conditioning. Price threw 123 innings last year, meaning that if you go by the rule of 25, he should top out at no more than 150 this year. If they make another push towards the playoffs they are going to want him to be strong and ready come August, not nearing his innings cap.

Chances are, at the very latest, Price will be up for good sometime in May, and that’s the right move. More people in the league and at home should stop second guessing them and start following their lead- I’m looking at you, Detroit.

Kerry Wood was an absolute best his first year in the big-leagues, conjuring images of a young Roger Clemens with his strikeout ability and Texas drawl. As a 21-year old rookie he would strike out 233 batters in 166.2 innings, good enough for a 12.58 K/9 ratio, the third highest total of all time. He’d miss all of the next season, and bounce back and forth from the disabled list over the next 9 years.  There were stretches where he was productive along the way, but he was never the same again. He finally settled into the closer role for the Cubs last year, and will resume that post with the Indians.

Another former Cub, Mark Prior, was considered by many knowledgeable scouts to be the greatest pitching prospect of all time. After throwing just 51 innings in his first minor league season in 2002, he was called up to the majors and posted a 3.32 ERA over 116.7 innings. The following year, at the age of 22, he would go on to post a 2.43 ERA and strikeout 245 batters over 211.3 innings. He would hit the disabled list for the first time in 2004, and would spend more time on it, than off, over the next five seasons. He’s again trying to make a comeback, but has been out of baseball since 2006.

In just his year in the bigs, Juan Nieves, at the age of 22, became the second youngest player to throw a no-hitter, and still remains as the only Milwaukee Brewer to do so. In 1988 he suffered a career-ending arm injury and is now the bullpen coach for the Chicago White Sox.

Dontrelle Willis made a stellar debut in 2003 at the age of 21, but unraveled in 2005 after finishing second in Cy Young voting, and hasn’t been the same since.  Jeremy Bonderman was rushed to the majors in 2003 at the age of 20, and he has never quite been able to fulfill the potential everyone saw in him. Phil Hughes got his first chance at a permanent roster spot last season at the age of 22 and promptly became injured. His future in baseball could now possibly be in jeopardy.

What do all of these players have in common? They were all placed in their respective team’s rotations sometime after 1980 by the time they were 22, and were asked to throw 100 or more innings in their first season in the majors.

The list of cautionary tales goes on and on, and of the players that qualified here, only Roger Clemens and CC Sabathia can be considered success stories. Of course, there are a few players that still have plenty of time to turn it around, such as Yovanni Gallardo and Phil Hughes, but there’s a prevailing theme here: rushing your pitchers rarely works out.

That’s why even the prospect of putting Rick Porcello in the Tigers rotation this year should be sending shudders down Woodward Avenue.

Porcello is only 20 years old, 18-months ago he was making plans for prom and making the rounds at graduation parties. He may be one of the best minor league pitchers in the nation (Baseball America recently ranked him as the 21^st best prospect in baseball), his stuff is out of this world good for a player his age and he was named the best pitcher in the Florida State League last year after posting a 2.66 ERA, but none of that excuses the fact that he’s only thrown 125 professional innings at the single A level.

He may have the talent to succeed in the bigs, and depending on what Justin Verlander decides to do this year, he could potentially be one of their top two starters right now- talent wise.  The problem is: there’s no way he is ready physically. The general rule of thumb is to increase a young pitchers workload by no more than 25 innings each season. That would put Porcello somewhere around 150 for the season, no more than 155. Where will the Tigers be when he hits that number?

Over 32 starts -the industry standard for major league pitchers who remain healthy- that averages out to 4.68 innings. Now, let’s say they get creative, skip him a few times so he can go deeper into the season and pick up a few decisions, he would still have to miss seven starts to be able to average 6 innings each time he steps on the mound. With a unit that finished 12th in the league in ERA, can they really afford to have a pitcher who can’t pitch past the sixth inning?

What happens if he hits that number at the end of August and has become the anchor of their staff? Do they really send him down if they are in the playoff hunt? Is it worth it to mortgage his future for a few wins now? This is a slippery slope that they shouldn’t even be approaching.

I understand that Dontrelle Willis may never make his way back onto a major league roster and that Nate Robertson has been so poor in spring training that he inspired a scout to say that he has ‘minus stuff’ and is pitching like “he’s 40 years old. No life whatsoever. His stuff has gone backward,” but none of that should matter when you are talking about a future stars career.  They have to think about tomorrow no matter how bleak today appears.

To be fair, Robertson just had a strong outing in his last start, but neither of these guys figure to be productive this season and need to be replaced if they want to make a run at the playoffs this season. That doesn’t mean that Porcello is the only option. He shouldn’t be an option at all, there’s plenty of productive pitchers still available. They already have $130M + in payroll, what’s another $3M to sign Pedro Martinez or Jon Lieber? Neither one of these guys is a front line starter anymore, but they’re good enough for the end of rotation while they keep the seat warm for Porcello for another year.

The last thing we need is another cautionary tale about a pitcher who had it all.

It’s just the way it goes.  Sometimes I honestly think that I’d be better off if I knew nothing about the teams playing, but over the years I’ve been developed a system that seems to be getting better with each year.  It’s a numbers game, no matter how you cut it.  There’s teams that are built for March that may struggle through the season at some turns, and there’s teams that just can’t cut it this time of year no matter how well they played during conference play.  The trick is being able to differentiate between them.

Still, you can’t account for everything, which is where ignorance sometimes comes into play.  Any self respecting sports fan would never fill out a bracket with all four number one seeds in the Final Four.  I, like many others, see that and immediately see an imposter.  It makes you look stupid.  Yet, last year, ignorance was bliss.  I guarantee that won’t happen this year, maybe not ever again.  This is a good, deep field, and at least one of the number one seeds -UConn- is extremely flawed.  Well, at least as far as number one seeds go.

Anyways, I’ve took some time to put together some of my strategies and more important research that I’ve compiled while filling out my brackets this year.  And yes, before you even say anything, I put way to much thought into this and chances are, since I got the Mega March Madness package on DirecTv, my girlfriend will either kill me or herself before this thing is over.  It’s that serious.

The Superstar Factor

That first thing I do on Selection Sunday is go through the brackets and locate which teams have the most star power.  If a team is going to go all the way they have to have that player that can carry them through crunch time with the game on the line., someone that isn’t going to crumble under the bright lights.

Last year the perfect example of this was Stephen Curry.  There were games when he’d completely disappear during the first half, but with the game on the line he’d elevate his play to another level and, because of this, they almost knocked off eventual champion Kansas in the Elite Eight.

There are many, but here’s five guys that I see giving teams absolute fits:

1.  Blake Griffin, Oklahoma:  He can run the floor, and his strength and quickness make him almost impossible to defend one-on-one.

2.  DeJuan Blair and Sam Young, Pitt:  Blair has got great touch, he gets down the floor, and he’s an absolute beast in the post.  He’s a little undersized, but he plays big.  Did you see how he destroyed Hasheem Thabet?  Young is just athletic, explosive force.  Not many players in the nation can guard him, and especially not anyone in the East region.

3.  Terrence Williams, Louisville:  This guy doesn’t nearly get enough love.  He has great vision, excellent athleticism, a good handle, and he can score when needed.  He’s a threat to put up a triple-double every night.  More importantly, he’s a pass first point guard.  To beat Louisville you have to cut off his head first.  The only problem is that when starts off cold, he almost disappears.

4.  Tyreke Evans, Memphis:  There has been a huge shift back towards experience this year, but there’s a reason that Evans is one of two freshman starters on all of the number one or two seeds in the tournament.  He’s not going to surprise anyone, he was one of the most hyped first-players but disappointed early on with his attitude and hardheadedness.  After he finally accepted his rule on this team and began listening to Coach Calipari’s lessons, he’s actually living up to the hype and Memphis became a different team.  There actually might not be a more important player to his team in this field of 65.  Since taking over as the point guard on December 22, Memphis hasn’t lost a game, winning 23 games in a row and sweeping Conference USA.  He’s still a freshman and is prone to turnovers and poor decision making, but he can also beat anyone off the dribble and is the Tigers’ best offensive weapon.

5.  Tyler Hansbrough, UNC:  I don’t even want to go here, but you can’t ever forget about this guy.  Say what you want about his game but he is an amazing college basketball player.

Honorable mention:  Gerald Henderson, Ty Lawson (if healthy), Johnny Flynn, Cole Aldrich, Leo Lyons, Jeff Teague

Experience Matters Again

Both Syracuse in 2003 and Florida in their first championship  season completely destroyed the idea of experience being everything, but it looks like we are headed back to that.  As previously mentioned, Evans is the only freshman starter on all eight one or two seeds.  In fact, ten of the 20 starters on the number one seeds are seniors, compared to just four last season.

Of course, experience only matters when you’ve actually won some games.  Having 12 seniors isn’t going to help much when there are only four teams standing and you’ve never won anything before.

Five teams that fit the bill:

1.  UNC:  These guys know how to play together, and more importantly, they’ve been to the Final Four before.  The only thing that is going to keep them from a return is if Ty Lawson can’t play.

2.  Pitt:  They have three senior starters that have been to the tournament three times with varying success.

3.  Louisville:  They returned three starters from an Elite Eight team in Earl Clark, Edgar Sosa, and Andre McGee.  With Williams and Samardo Samuels stepping up this year they are a legitimate threat.

4.  UCLA:  They are young in some spots but Darren Collison, Josh Shipp and Alfred Aboya have been to the Final Four three times.

5.  U-Conn:  Their players are experienced, but Jeff Adrien is the only one that knows what it’s like to win some games in March.

Hit 45% of your shots or go home

This one seems like common knowledge, right?  You can’t win games if you don’t make shots, but surprisingly a lot of teams get through the regular season unscathed while shooting well below the mark.  According to ESPN, over the last 20 years the worst field goal percentage by a nation champ was 45.3 by the 1996-97 Arizona Wildcats.

Notable teams eliminated by this rule:

Duke: As a unit they are shooting only 44 percent from the field, and have only one notable player, Gerald Henderson, above the mark.  This is in large part because of their extreme reliance on the three pointer, where they shoot 34 percent from beyond the arc.

Memphis- 44.3 and Purdue 44.7, everyone else is below a five seed.  I hope you aren’t picking any of them to win it all, if so, you’re helpless.

Have a coach who has been to the Sweet Sixteen

In college hoops having a coach with experience is far more important than having player experience.  Nineteen of the last 20 NCAA champions have had a coach who had been there before.  The exception:  Bill Frieder of the 1989 Michigan State Spartans.  However, he was an assistant on the Spartans team that made the Sweet 16 the year before.  So you can go ahead and count out Oklahoma right now because Jeff Capel has never made it out of the second round.

There are nine coaches in this field with titles to their names.  Mike Kryzewski has won three, Jim Calhoun has led UConn to two, and Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Gary Williams, Tubby Smith, Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo and Bill Self each have one.

A History of Success

If you have fallen in love with Mizzou and were thinking about having them upset Memphis in the Regional Semi-Finals, think again.  Syracuse is the only team over the last 20 years to win a title after missing the tournament the previous year, and they at least went 23-13 that year.  Mizzou is coming in without a winning record after finishing 16-16 last year.

Other teams in the field that had a losing record last year (last year’s record first, this year’s record second):

LSU:  13-18 (26-7)
Radford:  10-20 (21-11)
Michigan:  10-22 (20-13)
Bringhamton:  14-16 (23-8)

Don’t Get Seduced by Duke

I might catch some heat for hating on the Dukies, but beware before you take them on a long run.  Since winning the championship in 2001, they have advanced past the Sweet 16 a single time, but scarier still:  they haven’t beat a team seeded higher than fifth in the tournament during that span.  That’s quite an odd feat considering they made the Final Four in 2004, but that road was extremely weak considering that they beat 16th seeded Alabama State, number 8 Seton Hall, fifth seeded Illinois, and seventh seeded Xavier to get there.  Even more mind boggling, they have been seeded first four of the last seven years.

Furthermore, in five of the last six years exactly two number two’s reached the Sweet 16.  Only four times have all four reached the round.  If we’re going by history, I like Oklahoma and Memphis a lot more than Duke.

Some other quick tips

1.  Pick a Cinderella:  In 11 of the last 12 tournaments, a team seeded seventh or lower has reached the Elite Eight.

2.  Stick with the Big Dogs: The last four tournaments saw every No. 1 reach the Sweet 16.

3.  12 seeds win games: This is where you want to pick your upsets.  In 18 of the last 20 tournaments a 12 has knocked off a 5.  They’ve done it twice, eight of the last 10 years.  Interestingly enough, no five has ever won it all.

4.  Number 1’s are prevailing: Last year was an anomaly, but if you are looking to play it safe, take two number one’s to the final.  It’s happened three of the past four years.  That’s what is supposed to happen, but consider that it happened only three times in the 26 years before that.

5.  Go with a proven commodity: Every team that has won the tournament has won at least two games against a top 25 team before the tournament has started.

I was met with groans and gasps. I expected this. I had held back until the very end because- let’s face it- people are naturally reluctant to place recent events in a historical context. Pujols has a long way to go, and I’ll relent to the fact that it’s far too soon to put him in the same company as Williams and Aaron, but this man is a legend in the making.

No one ever gaffes of gaws when you mention Mantle, but they do when you drop in a current player in his prime, why? Mantle may have played in parts of 18 major league seasons, but of those 18 he was the wunderkind that we have immortalized in our minds for only 12. There were flashes of brilliance over his last four seasons, but he was a relic of himself by the time he turned 33. Pujols has strung together the greatest first eight seasons we have ever witnessed, and if he can hammer together four more he’ll be further along than Mantle or Williams or Aaron or anyone else, for that matter, were at the same point in their careers.

In my mind he already is a legend. He’s Superman in his prime. He’s the Incredible Hulk. He’s Albert Pujols: a slugger you can believe in, as Joe Posnanski recently pointed out in his excellent SI cover story.

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The legend goes like this: Pujols grew up dirt poor in the Dominican Republic and was raised by his Grandmother and 10 aunts and uncles. He got his beginnings using a lime as a baseball, a milk carton as a glove, and a stick as a bat. He played baseball with players four, five, six years his elder. But his story doesn’t end like so many others from the Dominican do. There were no handlers or trainers or American scouts discovering him. The real legend of Pujols isn’t in all the acclaim that he receives now as one of the game’s greatest players; it’s that no one noticed him until he showed up in Cardinal Red with a neon light flashing over his head that forced everyone to pay attention to what he was doing.

In the early 90’s, the Pujols family began migrating to New York City, where they hoped to capture a piece of the American dream and leave the poverty that was bestowed upon them in the Dominican behind. When Albert was 16 he and his father joined the others from their clan in the Big Apple, but they soon left for Independence, Missouri after Albert witnessed a man being executed while running an errand.

There, Pujols enrolled at Fort Osage High School as a sophomore, a year behind others his age because he didn’t speak English. In his first season on the varsity team he would hit better than .500 with 11 home runs, his signature moment being a 450-foot bomb that would land on a 25-foot high air conditioning unit. The following year, despite being walked 55 times in 88 at-bats, he still managed to hit eight home runs. Oddly, though, the Kansas City Star neglected to name him first team all metro. Even odder, no one was recruiting him so it was off to Maple Woods Community College.

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The legend goes like this: In his first game at Maple Woods he smashed a grand slam off Mark Buehrle and turned an unassisted triple play. It would go on like that all year as he finished up with a .461 average to go along with 22 homers and 80 RBI. Oh, and did I mention, he played with a wooden bat and didn’t strike out once the entire year?

“He literally hit balls to the moon,” former teammate Landon Brandes explains. “I remember the first day. Everyone is coming to the plate with aluminum bats taking batting practice, and here he comes with a wood model and he’s hitting balls further than any of us. Amazing.”

Still, despite that season, that summer Pujols slipped all the way to the 13^th round where the Cardinals picked him up, meaning that every team passed him over at least 10 times. The Royals, who had Pujols swinging his bat in their backyard all those years, actually selected 17 players ahead of him. Overall, 401 players were selected ahead of the man who would become the player of this generation.

It’s not that no one knew who he was, several teams had noticed him, but few felt comfortable enough to draft him. Jay Darnell was so inspired by Pujols that he pulled his car off the road into a truck stop and left a voicemail for the Rockies front office. “I told them, ‘Just in case something happens, I think this guy is going to hit for a lot of power.”

Allan Baird, of the Kansas City Royals, recently described the oversight to Joe Posnanski, “We all saw Albert the same way. We weren’t sure he had a position. He didn’t have a great baseball body. We all saw him the same way, and we were all wrong.”

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The legend goes like this: After drafting him, the Cardinals only offered him $10,000 to sign. Pujols held out and eventually got $60,000. He was assigned to play for the Peoria Chiefs in the single -A Midwest League, where he would hit .324/.383/.565 and earn the league MVP.

His play that season was good enough to get him an invite to the Cardinals 2001 spring training camp, but no one expected much. Even the baseball geniuses at Baseball Prospectus missed him, and those guys don’t miss much. In their 2001 season preview they wrote, “Albert Pujols is a very promising third-base prospect. It’s probably early to call him grade-A, but he has one great year under his belt.”

He showed up in spring training already ear-marked for a full season at Triple-A Memphis, but as the days progressed it became clear that he wasn’t going anywhere. Tony LaRussa wasn’t ready for him, he already had his everyday lineup set, and his bench was filled with dependable players, but it was apparent that Pujols was on another level. So he had him learn how to play firstbase and the outfield. By the end of spring training, LaRussa remarked on Pujols, “I’ve never seen someone quite like him.”

Everyone missed on this guy in that 1999 draft. This kind of thing happens all the time. Everyone missed on Tom Brady, even the teams that had him. He sat on Michigan’s bench for years, and then the Patroits, before ever really getting a chance to shine. The difference is, Pujols played only one minor league season and was already a finished product, shined, packaged, and ready to go by the time the 1999 draft finally rolled around. You would think someone, anyone, would notice that kind of talent.

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The legend goes like this: From the minute he stepped on the field, LaRussa knew there was no way that he could ever take him off again. In his first month as a Cardinal, Pujols hit .370/.431/.739 and his eight homeruns tied a rookie record set by Kent Hrbek and later tied by Carlos Delgado. Nothing seemed to shake him.

“In my heart and mind, I know I can hit anybody. I’m always relaxed. It’s hard to explain. It’s like playing with my kids. It feels natural.”

Albert’s terror would continue throughout the summer, culminating in one of the greatest rookie season’s of all-time. He would end up winning the club’s Triple Crown by hitting .357/.462/.653 with 37 homers and 104 RBI, becoming the first Cardinal to do so since Ted Simmons in 1973. He would also become just the ninth unanimous selection for the NL Rookie of the Year award.

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It would go on like that for the next seven seasons. Pujols would become the first player to hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in each of his first eight seasons. He would become the first player to finish in the top five in each of his first six seasons. He became the one of three players to finish in the top ten in eight straight MVP elections.

Still people are overlooking him. In an SI Players’ poll conducted last season, only one front office executive named Pujols when asked to name the one player they would like to start a franchise around. One. How is that possible? This is a player that has led the league in both batting average and OPS+ over the last five years.

He’s already won the MVP award twice, and at the rate he’s going, it’s not unlikely that he’ll capture the award at least a few more times before it’s all said and done. This is a player that is unlike any of his peers. To compare to those around him is unfair, he belongs in the discussion with Mantle and Mays, maybe he can’t eclipse them, but his play forces us to put him at the table. I refuse to be one of those people that underestimate the legend of Pujols.

In sports, particularly baseball, this saying couldn’t be further from the truth.  Of course, there are exceptions.  The Tigers and Rays proved that dishing out a suitcase full of Benji’s doesn’t guarantee anything, but it helps.  That’s why everyone already had the Yankees penciled into the postseason way back in January.  A half-billion dollar spending spree will do that for a team.

Unfortunately, money alone isn’t enough.  You need good luck, health, and if those both fail, you need some depth to get you through the rough patches.  The Yankees have none of those three things.  They started off their spring with a steroid scandal, followed by a trip to the operating table for Alex Rodriguez, and are now quickly coming to the realization that they are still a few pieces away from being a complete team.

Their strength was supposed to be their rotation, which is headlined by CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, and followed up by ace-in-the-making, Joba Chamberlain.  At the top they are as strong as anyone, and they were hoping that Chamberlain would take the next step and become the overpowering force that he was in the minor leagues.  This doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.  Not now.  Maybe not ever.

Granted, it’s only spring training, but those within the Yankees organization have to be wondering if Chamberlain’s arm is in permanent jeopardy.  He was a huge health risk coming out of Nebraska, and experienced a ton of problems due to letting his weight bloat to around 300 pounds.  He has since slimmed down, but he still has a major mechanical flaw where he lands on a stiff front leg- which is why he has had so much trouble staying on the mound.

If you recall, he hit the disabled list not once last year, but twice, including the last week of the season, and, frankly, it doesn’t appear that he is 100% yet.  In spring training he has turned up the heat to 96-mph a few times -although, with little control- but for the most part he is living around 90-92 mph.  That shouldn’t really be cause for concern yet.  If he’s still struggling to locate his high velocity pitches at the end of the month then you should be worried.

What is troublesome, however, is how he’s looked doing it.  It doesn’t appear that he’s using his lower body at all, he’s almost completely stiff out there.  He’ll probably eventually work his way back, but the question is:  can this guy even pitch 150 innings?  Can his arm handle seven innings?  He hasn’t proved that he can even exceed 100 innings and remain healthy, is it worth it to even try?

For now leaving him in the rotation and seeing what he can do there after having adequate time to prepare is the right move, but if he finds himself back on the disabled list again maybe a permanent move to the bullpen might be something they should explore.  We already know that he can excel from that role and if his arm isn’t able to handle the heavy workload there really is no other option.

With their bullpen in almost complete disarray following Mariano Rivera, maybe it wouldn’t be the worst scenario in the world to get a guy that can shutdown the eighth inning and allow you to shorten games- especially if Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy prove that they are now ready to pitch in the major leagues.