I will be rich soon

Inflation will eat your cash

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 10:34:00 +0000

If you want to be safe now, you should convert your cash into something more reliable, especially if you keep American dollars. In my opinion, it’s very important now when you can purchase many interesting assets like real estate, farmland, commodities and so on. However, I am not sure of ETFs or stocks. I’d prefer something real that you can see not only in your computer screen.

It’s high time to reduce debt, build some emergency fund and exchange dollars for other assets. Be prepared in advance.

Will Rajaratnam become a scapegoat?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 08:19:00 +0000

There’s a lot of fuss about Rajaratnam and his insider trading. I agree, this is scandal. However, I guess he is a kind of scapegoat who will be talked about a lot to make people stop thinking of Bernie Madoff’s story.

Look at numbers. Here’s the case of $20 mln. Let’s double it and make it $40 mln. So what is it in comparison to Madoff’s billions? Only a fraction.

I bet the secret where Madoff’s money is will remain hidden and media will be full of Galleon stories instead.

What commodities to buy? How about wheat?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 07:23:00 +0000

I’m not a commodity expert at all but I bet it’s better to have some commodities than too much cash, especially dollars. Now I’m interested in wheat but let’s start with greenbacks.

They have been losing ground to almost all other currencies. Just have a look:

Yes, in fact you’ve just lost 13% of your cash denominated in euros.
Why? Probably one reason is that the stock markets have been rallying like crazy but I see something more fundamental. Printing dollars and huge American debt is a big burden.
OK, stocks might go higher. However, after such a huge gain of 50 or more per cent putting new cash in equities right now is risky. At least for me.

I love Jim Rogers’ mind and I don’t want to say anything else. So maybe just watch this video instead:

Well, I can’t imagine myself being a farmer. Yet, I see something interesting in commodities.
That’s wheat:

I’m not going to use any leverage only 1:1 position. I consider long position for at least six months with a stop-loss order around 20% down from the start. I don’t like the downtrend in the chart and technically it’s too early but I think I’ll start with a small position and if wheat goes up I’ll add something more.

Gold over $1,000 per ounce. What does it mean?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 13:43:00 +0000

On Friday gold crossed $1,000 again and stayed there until the end of the day. So what does it mean? Is it another speculative bubble in the making or maybe a new stock crash is coming?

There are many questions to ask and it’s not easy to answer them in short but in my opinion it means that the US dollar is not trustworthy any more.

If I were American, I’d try to diversify my assets internationally with some commodities.

At this moment silver looks more promising than gold, and I like currencies like Australian and Canadian dollars (their economies are based on natural resources what should spur their value). Stocks are a bit more risky right now. I liked emerging markets but their stocks are now overvalued so they might go up but the correction movement might be deep as well. Hard to say. I suspect that the Chinese will work hard to keep their indexes up until October 1. On that day they will be the 60th anniversary of communist rule. They don’t want anybody to spoil their show with any stock market crash.

Expensive gold means that American debt in bonds and dollars are under pressure so I think that you should try to be less dependent on them. You could buy some real estate (in some places in the States there are real bargains) if you don’t like foreign investments. I would do both trying to spread my risk.

Even Lehman Brothers shares rally

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 08:55:00 +0000

I noticed that this market really got crazy and even Lehman Brothers almost tripled in their value (?) recently. This is symbolic and you could make a lot of money betting on bankrupt stocks. I’m not sure what to think of Las Vegas. You shouldn’t have made any money but it doesn’t work in a logical way.

Look at an average P/E of S&P 500 companies. Maybe it will go down but 143,95 is not cheap, is it?
Well, I keep my stocks but feel a bit scary and wonder how long this bubble will grow, I’m afraid it will burst in September or October. Be prepared for rides in both directions

S&P500 breaks 1000 points and what now?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 18:51:00 +0000

After S&P500 broke 1000 points barrier I think it’s time for some test for bulls. It looks a bit as a suckers’ rally but who is a sucker? A guy who is waiting for a market crash or a trader with 50% profit? You know the answer.

Now it seems a bit tougher and I bought some put options today against my local index. If I’m wrong I’ll lose less than $200. If I’m correct it may bring me $200-500 profit. It seems a good bet for me.

I also sold my stocks and made 9% after commission in total. They weren’t hot picks but I made couple of hundreds in three weeks. Not bad for me.

I suspect that S&P500 will have some trouble with 1014,14 points (38,2% of bear market wave). Why?

The previous level i.e. 23,6% Fibonacci level at 881,38 points was a very good support in July. I bet that logically 1014,14 pts will be a solid resistance level.
Time will tell who was right but it’s a bit risky strategy against the wave so I use only options and stay away from the futures contracts.

Where is Madoff’s money?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 19:46:00 +0000

This is really funny. Nobody is interested where Madoff’s money is. Look, there are billions of dollars missing and American authorities pretend that’s fine. This is absurd or something fishy in the air.

Is there any person who can ask such a question?

Can SEC and other guys answer it?

I agree that it was a Ponzi scheme but someone very influential (I guess quite a nice bunch) keeps those billions of dollars and is laughing at American taxpayers who seem to be indifferent.

Really strange.

I asked this question in June and still there's no answer so where is Madoff's money, Mr Obama?

How long will stocks go up?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 08:41:00 +0000

Everybody wonders how long the stocks will go up and I’ll tell you: ask Goldman and Morgan.

No, just kidding but in fact now we see a big speculation everywhere. It’s hard to predict anything so the best idea for me is to follow big money and keep stocks until they say we’re done.

For S&P500 the support level for me is now 930 and 880 to buy more stocks.

I don’t buy American stock because I don’t trust your currency.

Unfortunately, neither do Chinese or anybody else with money.

So, coming back to the first question. I don’t care much just keep stocks and wait till it’s over.

Where is Madoff money?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 05:42:00 +0000

I’ve got a simple question: Where is Madoff money? Who answers? Nobody. Isn’t it strange? Something smells very fishy. He didn’t act as a one person and needed some help and some other guys still keep billions of dollars. Will America stay corrupt or will you find some new Eliot Ness? I hope there are some honest people out there. I hope.

Why do you buy stocks at 130 P/E?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 14:50:00 +0000

Yesterday I found out that the average P/E for S&P500 is … 130. You can check it here.

Here comes the question. Why do you buy stock at 130 P/E?

Do you believe in such a strong recovery in American economy? Will profits catch up with those crazy prices in the market? I don’t think so.

I just follow big speculators who received money from your pockets and pump up the prices.

Exit levels are 925 and 870 points respectively depending on your risk tolerance.
It’s still pure gambling not investing and it’s hard to believe in V shape full recovery.

However, we see a lot of money created just out of thin air and the funds must be invested somewhere. I agree that even some expensive stocks are better than paper money but they seem a bit too expensive.

The risk is increasing. Technically it’s possible for S&P500 to reach say 1100 points. Fundamentally it would be a kind of madness.

Why do I buy stocks at 130 P/E? I like the orchestra playing on the “Titanic” deck. Nice tunes but I’ve got my raft ready to jump in.

What to do with stocks?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 08:47:00 +0000

Many people are wondering now what to do with stocks. Buy more, sell, do nothing?

What is the best strategy?
Well, nobody can predict the future correctly.

However, personally I would follow trends. I see a support level at 930 points looking at S&P500 but any investor who is not a trader or a speculator should wait and see until it doesn’t go below 875. This is my exit level.

I see a possibility of getting to 1014 or even 1100 and that’s all about it.
In my opinion this rally has no fundamentals but I insist that our main goal in the markets is to make money and not save the world.

If you want to help the poor just send a cheque to some charity. If you don’t like authorities, choose different ones next time in the elections. That’s it.
I disagree with the policy of dealing with the crisis but if the stocks are getting more and more expensive why don’t we try and make a few more bucks?

Of course the best bets are still commodities and stocks connected with them. Maybe some financials? Here, I’m not sure because of the risk.

Finally, I strongly recommend anybody who asks questions what to do with stocks to work on his or her strategy which should include all possibilities what market may do. There are only three ways: going up, down or staying flat. Be prepared for the movements earlier and know what you’ll do in advance and you’ll be fine.

Follow 200 Moving Average and do what you see

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 06:15:00 +0000

Last week S&P500 crossed 200 Moving Average for the first time since December 2007. What it means? It’s “buy” signal. I don’t like it because we’re observing V shape recovery in stock market and you should be very suspicious but if the market says that the bear market is done I just stick to the market not your thoughts.
In fact for me the situation looks very obvious. I’ve bought some stocks and will wait what happens next. I feel quite comfortable because now I can get out fast if S&P500 goes below 920. In other case I’m waiting till 1000 or better 1014 (Fibonacci retracement).

Well, personally I don’t believe that the crisis is over but remember to trade what you see not what you think.

Marc Faber calls US a banana republic

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 24 May 2009 06:43:00 +0000

Marc Faber used a very strong language the other night calling US a banana republic. Why?

I listened to his interview with Max Keiser and well, he sounded very reasonable. That’s scary when a man says: “it’s dangerous to be right when governments are wrong."

Nobody exactly knows where the first $350 billion from bailout programs and TARP went and it makes me surprised that Americans are not interested in who took their money. Really astonishing thing.

Faber sees the USA as a banana republic producing enormous amount of debt without any control and it looks like Russia where oligarchy manipulates authorities and grabs all available cash.

It’s a sad picture and the only thing you can do is to protect your assets in best possible way. You don’t have to strive to get rich soon but rather not to go broke.

So now it’s time you diversified your assets because the dollar is really shaky. Look for some real estate, gold, silver, commodities, anything you like because every second your dollars are worth less.

Marc Faber calls US a banana republic may be too soon but unfortunately there are not many signs of improvement. Be prepared for the worst but don’t lose your mind or hope.

Commodities and emerging markets are the most promising

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Tue, 19 May 2009 06:06:00 +0000

I’ve been talking about commodities and emerging markets for some time and still consider them very promising to make us rich, or at least save our assets. Yesterday, Indian stocks rallied 17.3% in just one day. Yes, it’s not my mistake. 17.3% in a day. It shows a real potential in emerging markets.

I’ve decided to buy some local commodity fund today because I don’t care about a right timing too much. I’ll buy more in June, July and so on. Why should I bother about the timing?

Look, crude oil is above $60 a barrel. To be rich is enough to follow the market and that’s all. I think everybody prefers bull market, me too. It means that the economy is expanding not shrinking. This time I’m not sure about it. I know that the inflation is coming and it’s better to put your money in something where your dollars preserve their value.

I’m constantly buying gold coins, even very recently I purchased another British sovereign but IMF makes me a bit nervous. These guys are threatening to sell 200-300 tons of gold. Yes, they can do it, it’s not their private gold. I believe them.
Many pundits say “buy silver” but the trouble is that silver takes a lot of room to keep. It’s impractical. I’ve got some silver coins and they look nice but their value is around $500 in total. If you look at them, you might get wrong impression and estimate they are worth much more. Yes, they look nice and impressive but they are rather cheap. You need a lot of them to invest some reasonable amount of money. Gold is more practical.

What commodities to buy? I wouldn’t care and just buy some index via ETF. It should outperform your deposits or bonds.

I’d to the same with emerging markets. In my opinion, Asia and Brazil are the most promising and I’m decided to put some my money there.

To sum up, I’m bullish on commodities and emerging markets and rather bearish on US dollar.

How to make money right now?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sat, 16 May 2009 16:52:00 +0000

Everybody wants to make money. Most people are looking for very fast and huge rates of return. They play lotteries, go to Las Vegas or Atlantic City, buy American banks stocks or speculate on currencies in Forex.

Let me tell you something. If you are the same kind of person, do you remember what your grandpa said: Hasty climbers have sudden falls? Isn’t that true?

Next question to ask yourself: do you know how much money you had a year ago, two years ago and so on? What was your net worth and what is it now?

How about your debt? Do you owe any money to the bank due to some unpaid credit cards? Do you have to pay huge installments for your car?
Well, these are vital questions, not your hot picks in the stock market. Believe me.
Start with your personal finances and don’t bother that you will miss something. The markets are open every day and you will have thousands of opportunities to make money.

The first thing is to make yourself profitable. You are not a big bank, and you won’t get any bailout. You only have to pay for it.

There are no gimmicks, just spend less than you earn.

Charles Dickens was right:
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.”

Only when you generate a positive cashflow you can make money in the best possible way. In this case you aren’t under any pressure and you don’t worry about your creditors or stuff like that. Your mind operates much better, more efficient and it’s not biased towards taking too much risk.

That’s crucial to have a clear mind and a wallet full of your own cash. If you need a leverage, just learn about derivatives but always remember that the leverage operates in both directions and you can lose a lot of money as well.

So assume you’ve got your emergency fund, no credit card debt and wonder what to buy now.

Don’t you see your dollars are burning? Yes, they are. Your government is printing more and more every day and what it means to you? Think about it. You’ve got a hundred in your hand and they print another out of thin air. Do you think it makes you richer? I doubt.

Then I bet dollars and all instruments connected with them like bonds or bank deposits are very bad investments and you’d rather go broke than get rich using them.
A sudden rise of inflation is inevitable. I don’t know when. In a year or two, you will see it. I wouldn’t care about official statistics –just compare the prices of things you pay for now and you paid last year.

Well, you may be surprised.

Anyway, I’d escape from the dollar and buy some land. Yes, now it’s time to buy real estate. Prices are good but the problem for America is that the citizens are in debt and have no cash. Maybe you have?

Even a small piece of farmland is better than a pile of green paper.

Stocks? I don’t know. Personally, I sold them but the rally may continue. Hard to say.

Gold? Yes, but not at any price and only real bars and coins, no computer records.

I think you’d better ask yourself but if you really want to make money right now start with your personal finances.

How to get rich with gold?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Mon, 11 May 2009 19:19:00 +0000

Anybody who would like to get rich should think of gold. Why? Gold preserves value. That’s the most important issue. Obama administration officials are talking about reducing budget deficit but in fact they are going to increase it. There will be no happy end for the dollar. So the way out is to buy gold, real estate (if you have your own resources) and any real assets that you can convert your funny money in.

In my opinion, gold must be real, not any kind of a computer game like some ETF or futures contract. Just real stuff. Recently some guys wanted to get real gold bars from NYSE Liffe and they got to know that there’s no real gold only a computer game.
I buy coins and bars gradually month after month and laugh at different values in paper money. Paper money is worthless. More and more people start to realize it when they hear about printing dollars, pounds or any other currency almost every single day. Do you really believe in those digits on paper? I don’t. Their face value should be divided by two or three at least.

Many Americans are in a really bad situation because most of them have piles of debts and they don’t save any money. That’s a shame. I can tell you folks. Start paying off your debts right now. It won’t be easier.
So how much of your capital should be invested in gold? Traditionally it’s estimated that 5-10% of your assets but now we are entering a new era. To be safe you need to double or triple that.

What is a good price to buy? I don’t know and don’t waste time on it. I buy coins and bars month after month in small amounts. If it’s $900 or $800 now I don’t care. It will be more, much more.

I hope that whole financial system will not collapse because in that case I will get rich at a price $3,000 or $4,000 per ounce. I’m afraid I wouldn’t be so happy. Neither will you.

Shall I enter emerging markets?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 10 May 2009 06:28:00 +0000

If you want to get rich in the stock market, you simply can’t skip emerging markets. Nobody knows whether it’s just a correction move (some call it fools’ rally) or a new bull market. I don’t believe in the other but you must trade what you see not what you think.

I live in one of the countries labeled “emerging” and I doubt whether the economy will recover so soon but look at the real cash flows.

According to MarketWatch $4bln were invested in funds covering Brazil, China, India and Russia only last week. It’s a lot more than usual. Brazil seems to be most fashionable now.

Well, I doubt whether you can make any money following the news and media but at least I’d consider some diversification of your money.

The dollar is doomed whether you like it or not. You have a big problem with evaporating value of your dollars. I’d convert them in real assets like gold, commodities, land, real estate in the first place and maybe try some stocks but after so huge rally it’s really risky right now and I don’t like risk very much. Do you?

You can also protect your assets by buying some foreign stuff and emerging markets are the most promising, much more than for example sinking British HMS “Titanic”.
The problem is with the timing.

How to solve it?

There’s always a simple way out. I’d buy ETFs month after month with the same amount of money. That’s all.

Personally, I tend to think that you should gamble a little and buy more at the end of October. I worked on statistics and the data are quite intriguing. In the last 14 out of 15 years we had always a positive rate of return between October and May investing in my country – Poland, so remember to prepare some extra cash for a Halloween shopping in emerging markets.

On average, buying in May and selling in October resulted in 4.5% loss so I’d be rather cautious now and invested only with a close stop-loss order. If the credit crunch is going to ease in October we will be much more sure about it and that’s another reason to be skeptical now.

Yes, personally I’m preparing some of my bank deposits to terminate in September or October and then I’ll use some of my funds to buy new stocks. So, in my opinion emerging markets are a great opportunity but I’m waiting 4-5 months to put more money in the stocks.

American bonds are the worst possible investments

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sat, 09 May 2009 05:58:00 +0000

I don’t know who keeps money in American bonds. 3,29% for 10-year bonds just make me laugh. They should be at 10 or more percent. Why?

America is a risky bond market. Increasing public debt and printing money is no way out of credit crunch.

I don’t think gold is very cheap at $910 an ounce, but I would rather keep a gold bar or coin than American bonds. You are guaranteed a very low return at a very high risk. In my opinion, this is ridiculous that so many countries and financial institutions value them at such crazy levels.

Many stocks are much better. They also offer high risk, but you can make many times more than funny 3% a year. However, now I don’t think that buying stocks right now in May is a good idea. The rally is crazy and probably needs at least some correction.
Commodities are also interesting because inflation is coming.

If I were American, I wouldn’t keep even a single bond.

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zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Fri, 08 May 2009 10:27:00 +0000

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How to get rich now?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:25:00 +0000

Many people wonder how to get rich now. I’m not a philosopher so I’m not going to tell you about how to develop personally but I’d rather focus on material things. First of all, you should start with building a safety fund.

It could be even $100 for a start but remember to build it gradually month after month every single month until you get to the amount that equals your household’s three months expenses Don’t stop then but you can save a bit less, say $50 a month.
Now you can ask me what this money is for? It’s simple. You will use it only in emergency cases like some accident, illness, an urgent car fix and so on. It means that the funds should be easily accessible and you need some simple saving account and don’t worry too much about the interest. It’s not any kind of investment.
Next thing is paying off your debts. There are different approaches. The most logical way is to pay off those with the highest interest first –usually credit cards. Yes credit cards are painful. If it doesn’t work for you, you should try David Ramsey’s methods with starting with the smallest debt to pay off in the beginning and it will give you real kick and motivation to reduce other debts.

I can give you some advice which is worth thousands of dollars: when you finish paying off your debt just cut all your credit cards and throw them away. Yes, I’m serious. Use only your money. Full stop.

If you really want to get rich now, you have to change the way you think. First of all, you must start generating positive cash flow every month.

It’s simple but not easy.

Your income must exceed your expenses and that’s all. You should try to increase your income and cut your expenses simultaneously. Don’t waste your time on gambling or lotteries. Every day try to make up a different ideas how to create new streams
of income that are coming straight to your pocket.

They don’t have to be huge, even a dollar a day makes a difference. If it’s profitable, it could be multiplied or increase to say 5 or $10 very soon. Do you need a good example?

Writing a blog might bring you nice income from advertisements but you need to provide a good content and you need a bit of traffic and a lot of patience to wait for some results.

There hundreds ways of increasing your income and I’ll tell you another simple thing: do what you like really good and people will pay you money, a lot of money. Think about it really hard and you will be rich soon. See you next time.

How to make money in stocks? Ask Stephen Friedman

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Tue, 05 May 2009 09:25:00 +0000

Stephen Friedman made money buying Goldman’s stocks in December, actually he added 37,300. Now their price is above $130 and then it was less than $80. Accidentally, he has also a chair at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and I bet SEC and other American regulators think it’s fine. It’s always fine when GS is involved so why shouldn’t be it the same now.

Think of Henry Paulson, a man who saved AIG by a huge bailout last year. Of course, he worked for Goldman Sachs for more than 30 years and increased personal net worth around $700 mln but don’t be too malicious. Free market is working properly as usual.

Well, I’m just kidding but America is seriously ill. Where are your values, guys?
I’m not going to cry or shout. I’m just surprised that you accept being manipulated. That’s your choice.

I just follow big guys and buy stocks but this doesn’t make me comfortable, especially that I know that Warren Buffett also rescued Goldman. I bet he’ll be fine, but I’m not sure about the USA.

Sell in May and come back in October

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sat, 02 May 2009 08:42:00 +0000

I checked Polish stock market in the last fifteen years and to my surprise “sell in May and go away” works here in an amazing way. The average rate of return is -4,88%. On the other hand buying in October brings astonishing +14,65% on average. The only bad year was 2007-2008 but everybody knew that it was a bubble to burst.
So the best idea from statistical point of view is to accumulate stocks in October and sell them in May.

I found similar conclusions concerning American market here.
Of course, it’s much more mature and there’s more data so discrepancies are smaller but it proves generally the concept.
So what’s my conclusion?

I’ll buy more stocks in October than usually. Then I‘ll match some of my bank deposits to expire then. You know, there are lies, big lies and statistics but I believe that “buy in October “is for me much more interesting than “sell in May”. I guess it will help me to be rich faster.

Warren Buffett invites shareholders to Omaha

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Fri, 01 May 2009 12:51:00 +0000

It is estimated that around 35,000 shareholders are coming to their annual meeting in Qwest Center Omaha, Nebraska. Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholders will be entertained by two really old friends Charlie Munger, 85 and Warren Buffett, 78. If you want to see full program, it’s here.

Maybe I’m a bit old-fashioned but I don’t like that the holding will be trying to sell its products (for example Borsheims jewelry) as well.
2008 seems to be the worst year in the history of Berkshire-Hathaway and I’m really looking forward to hearing from Buffett what he is going to say about his investments in "financial weapons of mass destruction." That’s how he called derivatives 6 years ago and now it is estimated that BRK has positions around $40 bln. That’s a lot!

Traditionally Buffett was a person interested in real assets and real companies. Now he became kind of speculator and I really don’t know what to think. I hope that after this weekend, it will be clearer and he will help us get rich faster ;)

Will Fed make us rich?

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 13:32:00 +0000

Last time Fed didn’t make many people rich and particularly Chinese were not very happy when they got to know about freshly printed greenbacks. They didn’t wait for long and bought more metals and increased their gold reserves.
Today we were a kind of shocked by 6.1% GDP fall in the last quarter but the equity market is still green hoping that Fed will tell us that they see good signs in real economy and so on.

I wonder if they convince us and make us buy stocks but my guess is that S&P500 should cross 870 points and shoot up at least a few per cent. Maybe we won’t be rich soon but slowly but surely we can accumulate gains.

However I find it very risky that we buy stocks of companies that have smaller and smaller profits and we hope that recovery is coming.

My scenario is that both Fed’s statement and stress tests will help to heat up the rally and then I’ll probably cash in some of them. In a way Fed will make us rich, a bit.

Jim Rogers and his new book

zbychal@o2.pl (APP Funds) — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 05:21:00 +0000

Jim Rogers has written a new book and it will be available next Tuesday, on April 28. The title seems quite long “A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing”. Almost everybody knows something about Rogers. He moved to Singapore and lives there with his family. He has two daughters aged 2 and 5 and the book is dedicated to them.

Jim Rogers is famous for his investments and travels. I love travelling but this blog is about investing so let’s focus on the main topic. However, you should always have your eyes wide open. Rogers once crossed Botswana on a motorbike, he liked the country and in this way he found a great investment opportunity.

I agree with him that if you want to compete with funds and skillful investors you need some edge. Do you think that you are better at technical or fundamental analysis than big companies with dozens of great minds? You’re probably wrong.
So what to do? Rogers said recently that you are sure to be an expert in some field, for example as a car mechanic you know which company makes good spare parts and which produces crap. In this way, you are doing a fantastic basic fundamental analysis of a company and then you can start digging to find out more about it and decide whether its stocks are worth buying or not.

Therefore, he is against diversification because if you spread your risk to many companies you don’t know, you can’t make a lot of money. I’d say he is right to some extent but I wouldn’t tell anybody to invest say 30% of their capital in one stock. For me it’s some unnecessary risk.

Rogers is a big fan of Asia and commodities. He has very bad predictions about the U.S. and I hope he is wrong but you can’t be sure about it. Instead of saving and investing American government increases debt and want people to do the same. I don’t like it as well.

I’m looking forward to his new book. Jim Rogers is always a good read.