tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176Thu, 12 Nov 2009 01:04:26 +0000The Spanish stock market, economy and the olive oil business.http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)Blogger302125IbexSaladhttp://feedburner.google.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4735964350464709714Sat, 31 Oct 2009 17:03:00 +00002009-10-31T19:47:14.686+01:00PortfolioStock MarketA few items have caught our eye as we scan the foggy landscape for guidance...1). Despite the fact that the long-short portfolio on the right hand sidebar is performing admirably (returns generally above or in line with the index, but volatility at 40% of the latter), the fact is that it is the short side that is generating all the returns. The longs are performing execrably;2). Searching the http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/humble-prognosis.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-6786656359228563148Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:43:00 +00002009-10-29T14:18:12.434+01:00Business and EconomyTuesday's Jaén province edition of El Ideal notes that only 20% of the 4,500 eligible have applied for the 420 euro central government subsidy made available to all the unemployed that had run out of all other options available - the most hopeless of the destitute, so to say. This echoes the 35% figure for the same in the province of Huelva, as reported by Huelva Información on Saturday.The most http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/avoid-disappointment-book-your-seat.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-5354264186685346797Tue, 27 Oct 2009 07:29:00 +00002009-10-27T08:33:56.918+01:00PortfolioThe new entries are in bold face.Longs1). Insurer Mapfre (map.mc on Yahoo!) - 2.97€;2). Software place Indra (idr.mc) - 16.69€;3). Banco Popular (pop.mc) - 6.975€;4). TV station Telecinco (btl.mc) - 8.845€;5). Natural gas utility Enagas (eng.mc) - 13.86€;6). Infrastructure builder Ferrovial (fer.mc) - 34.22€;7). Electricity carrier Red Electrica (ree.mc) - 35.78€.Shorts1). Energy infrastructure http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/portfolio.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-923438370905848920Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:25:00 +00002009-10-29T18:14:30.339+01:00Business and EconomyOne could be excused for thinking that a couple of events this week might have had wider market repercussions than today's late day selloff. After all, they touch on what still remains the heart of the matter - asset values.1). Ferrovial announced the sale of Gatwick Airport for 1.5 billion pounds* - about 20% below the low end of their prior estimates of what it might have drawn;2). Savings http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/is-anybody-paying-attention.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-5454640199553356305Sun, 25 Oct 2009 19:27:00 +00002009-10-25T21:16:36.571+01:00Press and BlogsBusiness and EconomyWith thanks for the idea to Macro Man (a tad over three years old and still among the best reads on the internet - if the reader is into the subject matter), the pic on the left shows the sum of the year-on-year changes in the Spanish consumer price index - the pre-2001 series hooked on without the direct involvement of science - minus the same for the producer price index*, from January 1994 to http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/margins.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4859036805276249899Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:05:00 +00002009-10-22T10:41:38.620+02:00Business and EconomyThe INE (yet again) has just published the results of its 2008 household survey named, Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida. Perhaps best translated as 'Living Standards Survey', the study attempts to ascertain where Spaniards find themselves on some continuum between poverty and wealth. The questions were asked in the spring of that year and provided some responses that we thought interesting in http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/ine-calculates-home-ownership-costs.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-7288589200158914419Wed, 21 Oct 2009 08:06:00 +00002009-10-21T11:31:45.962+02:00Press and BlogsBusiness and EconomyNot to say that our 650 bottom call on the S&P 500 was (to date) very far off the mark, but regular readers will have noted that Ibex Salad rarely comes out and makes more than the most vague of predictions concerning the future course of events. And on the occasion that we might venture into that silly terrain, never do we show up later and trumpet some other pundit's (no matter how universally http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/tarot-of-ibex.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-2704181018792913200Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:28:00 +00002009-10-20T20:33:48.475+02:00Press and BlogsBusiness and EconomyIn Spain, prior to the issuance of a municipal building permit, a new project must have its architectural plans approved. Equally, before the finished building receives a completion license it must undergo an inspection to ensure that it is up to scratch in the legal sense. The official organism charged with these two tasks is the Colegio de Aparejadores... and they keep and publish statistics http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/residential-building-statistics.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4690945422156125010Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:26:00 +00002009-10-19T18:59:40.265+02:00PortfolioWe have added another pair to the long-short portfolio shown on the right sidebar. It now looks like this (the additions are in italics):Longs1). Insurer Mapfre (map.mc on Yahoo!) - 2.97€;2). Software place Indra (idr.mc) - 16.69€;3). Banco Popular (pop.mc) - 6.975€;4). TV station Telecinco (btl.mc) - 8.845€;5). Natural gas utility Enagas (eng.mc) - 13.86€;6). Infrastructure builder Ferrovial (http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/portfolio-changes_19.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-8265941632388099482Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:33:00 +00002009-10-29T18:12:34.647+01:00Press and BlogsBusiness and EconomyA number of mentions made recently of Ibex Salad seem to locate us somewhere within an ideological camp that can only be described with one word - optimist. We would like to correct that error of perception. We are not optimists. We are monotonists.The monotonist, believing as he or she does so fervently that recessions are fundamentally boring (and that long-lived recessions are fundamentally http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/monotonist-manifesto.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-2119908981765568917Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:17:00 +00002009-10-13T19:11:43.220+02:00Business and EconomySometimes the comment facilities provided by blogs work wonders. We'll first deal with a few objections raised about the methodology, data or conclusions of the previous post. Then we'll get to the crux of the matter - how these cost-of-carry figures change, or fail to, as seen by banks in the event of bank repossession in Spain and the United States.Both reader Mickey and one identifying himselfhttp://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/more-cost-of-carry.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-2195297412188353608Fri, 09 Oct 2009 10:07:00 +00002009-10-13T12:49:56.602+02:00Business and EconomyWe publish this piece knowing full well how incredibly stupid one looks when his off-centre analysis proves erroneous, and how unscathed totally faulty predictions come out of the fracas as long as they are accompanied by many others of their ilk. We don't care.About two and half years ago, short sellers broke through Enrique Bañuelos' million share Astroc Mediterraneo limit buy order at 45.51 http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-spain-is-not-florida.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4921734326941704754Mon, 05 Oct 2009 21:54:00 +00002009-10-07T20:22:11.832+02:00Business and EconomyLast week, Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville drew our attention to the fact that the then recently completed 1-year ECB financing auction had drawn bids from European banks for a grand total of 75 billion euros - this figure to be compared with the 442 billion demanded in the prior edition, last June. Of the three explanations she offers for this abrupt about face, she seems to side with the http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/germany-gets-peseta-fever.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4372603173713023126Mon, 05 Oct 2009 15:55:00 +00002009-10-05T19:31:05.208+02:00PortfolioWe have added two stocks to the long-short portfolio shown on the right sidebar. It now looks like this:Longs1). Insurer Mapfre (map.mc on Yahoo!) - 2.97€;2). Software place Indra (idr.mc) - 16.69€;3). Banco Popular (pop.mc) - 6.975€;4). TV station Telecinco (btl.mc) - 8.845€;5). Natural gas utility Enagas (eng.mc) - 13.86€.Shorts1). Energy infrastructure outfit Abengoa (abg.mc) - 20.825€;2). http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/10/portfolio-changes.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-7681643527823198306Wed, 30 Sep 2009 07:45:00 +00002009-09-30T13:57:57.393+02:00Press and BlogsBusiness and EconomyIndexing INE mortgage issuance data to the beginning of the series produces the chart on the left. Some things stand out.1). From early 2005 through at least late 2007, one can note a pronounced deviation of totals loaned from number of mortgages contracted. This reflects price increases, the greater willingness of bankers to finance beyond 80% of the value and the vibrancy of the higher end http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/more-spanish-mortgage-data.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-2504303793855403628Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:10:00 +00002009-09-26T21:23:21.124+02:00Business and Economy >The above chart, derived from OECD data, shows the year-on-year changes in labour productivity (measured as GPD per hour worked) for a selection of countries. Readers might note that in 2007 Spain led the United States, France and Germany in this regard and, in 2008, only fell behind the U.S.A.We thought this to be a touch odd, and drew up the next graph, from OECD, Eurostat and INE data.It http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/productivity-and-unemployment.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-6260983462396212812Tue, 22 Sep 2009 16:40:00 +00002009-09-23T11:19:10.594+02:00Press and BlogsThere has been a fairly generalized consensus that one of the sources of our current economic straits was the widespread availability, and subsequent abuse, of credit. In the simplest terms, many wrongly thought that reeling in resources from the future to fund a present, that would presumably be unsatisfactory without this facility, was a rational life plan.Little did we know, at least until http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/credit-bubble-lives.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-9170585221031022510Mon, 21 Sep 2009 19:31:00 +00002009-09-21T23:11:15.728+02:00------------------------------http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/chart.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-599894212022131008Sat, 19 Sep 2009 13:13:00 +00002009-09-19T21:08:57.381+02:00PortfolioEtceteraFront running horses, even those entered at a distance, are the most exciting to bet. Clutching your ticket, the gate opens and you are immediately counting your winnings - until darling Alpo is run down by the entire field in the last furlong.May that not be the fate of Tuesday's little eight stock long-short quant - to glorify what is simple arithmetic - experiment. Up an unsustainable 1.7% in http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/bad-omen.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4910734257344806537Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:13:00 +00002009-09-17T20:12:15.937+02:00Business and EconomyThe Spanish Ministry of Housing releases a wide variety of property-related statistics on a quarterly basis. Many of their studies, particularly those that claim to represent price levels, are useless beyond description. Supposing, however, that they cannot mess up too seriously a time series consisting solely of the number of transactions involving raw land, we have graphed our index of this http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/latecomers-lament.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-3256553023466626664Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:25:00 +00002009-09-19T12:09:58.714+02:00TradesPortfolioSuffering from the same lack of serviceable ideas as this guy (but not this one), we are putting together a little portfolio based on dreaded 'technical' indicators - one, in fact. The culprit is a hand rolled item, using weekly data, that might give some indication as to the willingness of market participants to hold on to positions for more than five minutes at a time, say. Bounded by 0 and http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/dont-try-this-at-home.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-116713994427394383Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:34:00 +00002009-09-15T17:52:53.797+02:00Business and EconomyThe INE has released Spanish property transfer statistics for the month of July. Worth noting are the following points:1). The number ownership changes of used dwellings has rebounded to just shy of October 2008 numbers;2). The month-on-month percentage change in the 12-month rolling sum of the above is -2.2%, the best reading since the series begins in January 2008 - and 1.93% above the average http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/home-sales-update.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-1456163575469853455Mon, 14 Sep 2009 11:37:00 +00002009-09-14T14:01:55.852+02:00Business and EconomyDrawn from the INE's Spanish unpaid merchandise statistics, the chart shows the number of occurences breaking above the 500,000 mark, for the first time since 2003, in the spring of 2008. The number, in blue, has now dropped below that figure and into the high end of its normal range since 2002. Notable is the exuberance of the red line representing the average (and unadjusted for inflation) http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/early-warning.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-5097105123662190640Sat, 12 Sep 2009 17:31:00 +00002009-09-12T20:23:43.493+02:00Press and BlogsEtcetera Reader JL has recently suggested that we forget about the Millionth Monkey and all that other blather and, instead, go back to the land - this with the caveat that we watch out for falling airplanes.Referring to Friday morning's crash of a Spanish Air Force Mirage up the road from us a short piece. Little does he know that about ten minutes after the incident occurred (and as yet unbeknownst to http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/sky-is-falling.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37012176.post-4645764388292599333Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:04:00 +00002009-09-09T20:26:21.434+02:00Press and BlogsBored, we decided to have a look - for the first time in weeks - at the Millionth Monkey, Zero Hedge. This was the lead post at 8 PM CT.Cut and paste of the first line, with boldface theirs:Yields 3.510% vs. Exp. 3.350%, 16 bps miss in final High vs. Exp.Whatever member of the fuckwit collective was posing as Tyler Durden at that moment was plainly too stupid to even suspect that the 3.350% 'http://ibexsalad.blogspot.com/2009/09/sorry-but-we-cant-help-it.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Charles Butler)1