Ideas Pobres

Want a job? Move to Nebraska.

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:03:00 +0000

This SITE has a graphic view of the unemployment picture in the Unites States from 2004 - 2009. Right now, Florida, Michigan, California and Arizona are bleeding red. But Nebraska is job heaven! Right click on the graphic at the SITE to zoom and pan.

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Greenblatt Magic Formula Returns

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:44:00 +0000

On October 19, Joel Greenblatt presented at the Value Investing Congress. Greenblatt is an acclaimed value investor and philanthropist. His presentation explained the Magic Formula which was first presented in his best selling book titled The Little Book That Beats the Market which was published about 4 years ago. The video can be watched HERE. Be sure to first download his slide presentation which goes with the video. The slides can be obtained HERE. If you had followed his methodology,...

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India goes for the gold!

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:42:00 +0000

India's central bank bought 200 tons of gold from the IMF reserves. It is equivalent to 8% of annual world production of gold. India's finance minister said: "We have money to buy gold. We have enough foreign exchange reserves." What? They don't want paper dollars! Gold closed at $1084 today - up almost 3%. Er, or is it the case that the dollar fell in value 3%? What yard stick should I use? I am so confused. Full article HERE.

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Democrats, the guardian of the little man against greedy Wall Street...

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 02:24:00 +0000

The conventional wisdom is that the Republicans are anti-regulation and that they allowed the free reign of Wall Street to line their pockets. And no doubt there is a lot of truth to this. The other conventional wisdom as that the sainted Democrats are in the trenches doing battle against Wall Street greed and their Republican allies for the betterment and protection of the little man on main street. If you believe that about the Democrats, then watch the PBS Frontline report, "The Warning"...

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Just an illusion?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:34:00 +0000

Like Alice in Wonderland, when one peers through the looking glass, one can see different views of reality. If one considers the performance of the S&P since the March lows in a strictly dollar based measurement, the return has been spectacular. But if one looks at the S&P performance using the prism of a trade weighted index of the dollar's value versus other currencies, the performance of the S&P has been in good measure an illusion. See HERE. This is just another example of...

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Gasoline refiners in for hard times ahead

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:54:00 +0000

This week's Barrons discusses falling U.S. oil consumption and the rocky road the refiners such as Valero, Tesoro, Frontier and others face going forward. More efficient cars on the road, an aging population that drives less and a slowing economy have all forced consumption down and thinned refining margins. The chart included in the article is quite interesting. Note that for all the pain and complaining last year when prices hit a record $4 per gallon, gasoline expenditures as percent of...

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Inflation is your friend!...

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 22:30:00 +0000

Below is a news reel from 1933 making the case that inflation is a wonderful way to grow the economy, increase wages, and sell more beer... Next time I thirst for my favorite beer and have to pay a bit more, I'll think of this film, smile and start whistling, "Happy days are here again!"

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The new "Sunshine State"

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:51:00 +0000

Today's WSJ has an article HERE[$] on New Jersey's solar electricity initiative. Some excerpts... "New Jersey's biggest utility is outfitting 200,000 utility poles with solar panels, part of the state's embrace of a try-anything strategy that has made it the nation's second-biggest producer of solar energy behind California... FedEx Corp., for example, said Thursday it will begin installing solar panels atop its distribution hub in Woodbridge, N.J., next month. Covering about three acres and...

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Pathetic

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 00:05:00 +0000

One of MSNBC's lead stories today... Geithner travels globe, pitching U.S. debt Treasury secretary must convince foreign governments investment is safe ...Publicly traded U.S. debt — which excludes deficits the government owes to itself in Social Security and other trust funds — stood at 41 percent of the total economy in 2008. It is projected to climb to 82 percent of the entire economy by 2019... "If these trends are not reversed, the world will stop buying our debt and the economy will...

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A new tip on TIPS...

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:51:00 +0000

Maybe they are not such a great idea after all. Kiplingers looks at the down side of TIPS. See HERE.

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U.S. Unemployment

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:31:00 +0000

For the first time since 1993, U.S. unemployment has caught up to Europe. As of March it was 8.5%. See HERE for a chart.

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Obama orders cabinet to cut $100 million from budget. Really!

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Fri, 01 May 2009 02:44:00 +0000

More than 40 years ago, one of Obama's predecessors to his Illinois senate seat, Everett Dirksen, famously said "A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money". A few days ago I was watching TV while doing other things and I thought I had heard the president say that he was ordering his cabinet heads to cut $100 million dollars from the budget. Surely I had mis-heard. He must have said "cut $100 billion". Even then I thought $100 billion was trivial given the current...

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Glaxo-Smith-Kline and Swine Flu

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 00:06:00 +0000

With swine flu in the news, my brother suggested purchasing either Glaxo-Smith-Kline or Roche. Each have antiviral medications to shorten the illness and perhaps protect people against contracting the influenza. GSK has Relenza and Roche has Tamiflu. Relenza is reputed to be the more efficacious against this strain. As expected the growing concern caused both stocks to pop today. GSK was up 7.6% and Roche was up 4.3%. In truth, their anti-viral medications are only a small part of their...

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How long will key minerals last?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 02:46:00 +0000

The NEW SCIENTIST has a very interesting chart on the longevity of (that is, when we will run out of) key commodities based on various scenarios of consumption rates, population growth and recycling percentages. For example they estimate that there is enough platinum to last about 15 years, silver 15-20 years, zinc 20-30 years. So either we will have to use less, find even more than is projected to be available or see prices rise. The chart can be seen HERE.

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Worst recession in the last 50 years?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 15:20:00 +0000

The New York Times has an interesting chart on how the current recession compares with other recessions over the last 50 years. "The current recession has become the second-worst in the last half-century and is close to surpassing the severe 1973-75 downturn, according to the Index of Coincident Indicators, based on government data and compiled each month by the Conference Board, a private organization. Unlike the more widely followed Index of Leading Indicators, which is supposed to help...

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China Going for the Gold... again

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 01:03:00 +0000

Bloomberg reports HERE that over the last 6 years China's GOLD holdings have increased by 76% to over 1,000 tons. China now has the 5th largest holding of the yellow stuff. The U.S. has the world’s biggest gold holdings at 8,134 tons, followed by Germany with 3,413 tons, World Gold Council data show. France has 2,487 tons and Italy 2,452 tons, while the IMF has 3,217 tons. China has been looking for ways to diversify away from dollar holdings by buying under valued commodities. As previously...

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Diamond Dollars

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 14:15:00 +0000

University of Chicago graduate and former executive with Pepsico, Vince Gennaro, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on this PODCAST about his book, "Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball.'' If you liked Michael Lewis' Money Ball, then Diamond Dollars would make for a great follow on baseball season read.

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Autos as a distressed value play?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 17:16:00 +0000

Dennis Virag, president of Automotive Consulting Group Inc., talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt in this PODCAST about partnership negotiations between Chrysler LLC and Fiat SpA, a looming bankruptcy for General Motors Corp. and his assessment of Ford Motor Co. and its Chief Executive Officer, Alan Mullaly. Virag expects the GM shareholders to be wiped out. So GM is the ultimate value trap. Chrysler is of course private, so no play here. But Virag is surprisingly positive on Ford. Also Mandel of...

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Emerson Electric (EMR) - A Value Play?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 00:13:00 +0000

I tend to think that we are in stock pickers market. That is, in this market, one can do better by selectively buying stocks rather than buying the broad indexes. If you are of that mindset, then perhaps consider Emerson Electric as a value play. I had bought Emerson back in October (down 4% since then). As I am 6 months in to this stock, I spent some time looking at its current situation to see if I should still hold (I will). Since I did the research, I thought I would share my findings in...

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President Obama's 2008 Tax Return

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 03:39:00 +0000

I just mailed my 2008 income tax return. For grins, HERE is President Obama's 2008 Form 1040 Federal Income Tax Return. His adjusted Gross Income was $2,656,902 on which he paid $855,323 in taxes.

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Black blasts Bush, Paulson, Obama, Geithner and Summers

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 13:14:00 +0000

After blasting Bush, Paulson, Obama, Geithner and Summers on Bill Moyer's PBS show this past week, now Bill Black is doing more of the same in this week's Barrons Magazine. What Black says is consistent with what Economist Simon Johnson said in the Atlantic Magazine HERE. Excerpts from Black's interview in Barrons is below. "The scale of fraud is immense. This whole bank scandal makes Teapot Dome [of the 1920s] look like some kid's doll set. Unless the current administration changes course...

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A taxing time?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 15:42:00 +0000

Don't feel so bad. Forbes magazine has an interesting ARTICLE comparing US tax rates to that of other countries. "Total taxation (federal, state and local) amounted to 28% of the GDP in the U.S. in 2006. Only four of the 30 OECD countries had a lower tax ratio. Taxes averaged 35.9% for the OECD as a whole and 38% in Europe. Citizens of Denmark and Sweden paid very close to 50% of their total income in taxes... ...Federal revenues as a prececent of GDP will be the lowest since 1950... ...Only...

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A Bear Market Rally?

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:09:00 +0000

"The Dow Jones industrial average gained 246 points on Thursday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has now risen more than 25 percent since stocks bottomed out on March 9, one of its best runs since the Great Depression." The question at hand is whether the recent spurt in stock prices is a turn around or just a bear market rally? In the New York Times, three economists give their opinions HERE.

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You can't handle the truth!

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:55:00 +0000

On April 3, Bill Moyers interviewed Bill Black, a top regulator during the S&L scandal of the 1980s and now a Professor of Law and Economics at the University of Missouri. Bill Black supported Obama in the election. Now he has scathing comments about Obama's Treasury Secretary, Geithner, his Economic Advisor, Summers, Bush's Treasury Secretary, Paulson, and others. He argues that the fraud committed on Wall Street is now knowingly being covered up by the economic team in Washington. BILL...

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Here's a TIP...

noreply@blogger.com (Juan Pobre) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 01:25:00 +0000

"In March, TIPS earned 6.1 percent, the best returns since the Treasury started selling the securities in 1997, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data." Bloomberg reports HERE.

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