In Homeland Security

Scenario for a North Korean Nuclear Assault

2009-07-07T13:04:28Z

By Miller J. Wilson

With North Korea admitting to weaponizing nuclear materials, continuing to perform missile tests, and threatening nuclear war if their ships are searched, the US is in a difficult position. Both Japan and South Korea are obvious targets for an attack and with US forces spread thin it would be nearly impossible to use US forces to defend either nation without pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq to fight in Korea.

To compound the problem even more we don't even know what North Korea will do or if it will do anything. Figuring this out becomes even more difficult when we take into account the differences in the psychology of the North Korean and US cultures and their leaders. Despite these problems it is essential that we try to anticipate what actions North Korea might take even if we can only base it off of what we might do in the same situation. It is to this end that I present what I would do in this situation.

If I were the leader of North Korea and decided to take military action I would do a simultaneous two prong attack using a nuclear strike on Japan targeting Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagasaki, and Hiroshima. At the same time I would engage in strikes against South Korea using conventional missiles on Seoul while invading with ground forces. Each of these strikes has their purpose with the targets chosen for their symbolic and military value. I shall explain my choice of targets as well as why a dual assault would be used even if it meant having a war on two fronts.

Despite the tensions between North Korea and Japan a nuclear assault on Japan has other strategic values. The main value is that the US would use Japan as a staging area for air assaults on North Korea as it did during the Korean conflict. By using a nuclear attack on Japan this would show that US air bases would not be safe and so a new location would have to be chosen.

Second, an attack on Japan would garner support from both China and Russia who already limit the sanctions against North Korea in the UN. So why would China and Russia support an attack on Japan? Currently Russia and Japan are in a territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands with both claiming ownership. If Japan was attacked it would be in no position to continue the dispute and Russia could finally take full claim of the Kuril Islands.

China on the other hand suffered many atrocities by Japan during WWII and the Chinese people would see it as just punishment done in proxy by North Korea. So why would I choose to use a nuclear strike on Tokyo, Kyoto, Nagasaki, and Hiroshima? For the symbolic and psychological impact as well as preventing US arguments. Tokyo is an obvious target because it is the capital of Japan and a strike there would disrupt government and delay any military action. Kyoto on the other hand is chosen for its symbolism as it was once the Imperial Capital of Japan. A nuclear strike here is a direct attack on the cultural heritage of the Japanese people and its destruction would cause severe damage to the Japanese psyche.

Finally, Nagasaki and Hiroshima are chosen because the US dropped nuclear bombs and so the US would be in a very compromising situation arguing in the UN for actions against North Korea for doing the same thing it did. Also the citizens of both these cities were either victims of the US nuclear attack or are the children and grandchildren of victims and so a second attack would be psychologically devastating. If North Korea then followed these attacks immediately by stating they were because of US presence in Japan there would be a tremendous amount of pressure to expel US forces and a rise in anti-US sentiment preventing Japan being used as a second front.

So why use a nuclear attack on Japan and not South Korea? There are a couple of reasons for not using a nuclear attack on South Korea. First is the surprise factor on Japan. By launching missiles at Seoul and Japan at the same time the first thought is going to be that they a nuclear and preparations will be made for that which would minimize the damage dealt. However the missiles aimed at Seoul would reach first and if it they only contained conventional warheads it would give the impression that North Korea still did not have nuclear capabilities and that the missiles headed for Japan would be conventional instead of nuclear and so their guard would be let down and the nuclear attack would be more effective.

Once nuclear strikes on Japan were reported North Korea could then start the propaganda that they spared their Southern Brethren from a nuclear strike because they only wish to reunite Korea and not harm their brothers but if US forces were not expelled they would have no choice other than to use a nuclear strike. This would help increase anti-US sentiment as well as increase support for the South to join the North especially if it seemed that the US was unable or unwilling to help defend the South. So why would South Korean leaders surrender to the North? The simple fact is that the South is a military regime that wants to retain their power. Currently they are able to do so because they are backed by the US but they also recognize that there is a growing desire by the people in both the North and the South to reunite. If it appears that the US would be unable to help defend South Korea, either because forces are spread too thin or the US people are opposed to it, then North Korea could start making deals with the leaders to ensure their power in exchange for joining the North. The fear that the North might be victorious and punish those that opposed them would cause the military generals to change sides in droves.

So why attack Japan and South Korea at the same time? Other than the reasons stated already a dual assault has the advantages of causing confusion and forces the US to either spread their forces thin and making them weak or strengthening one area while abandoning another completely.

No matter what they choose it is a major blow to their prestige and will damage confidence in their ability to protect allies. This would have devastating effects world wide as forces in the Middle East would wonder if they can count on US forces or not while at the same time insurgents would get a morale boost and increase their attacks. In addition by attacking two allies of the US but not directly attacking the US directly the US population would be hard pressed to support direct military involvement of the US, especially if insurgent attacks against US troops in the Middle East increased.

So when would be the best time for North Korea to do this?

If it was me I would set my time table for September or October as this would give me some time to get missiles in place, make deals with military and government officials in the South, and stockpile nuclear material. But that is not the only reason for choosing this time frame. The second reason is that this is the start of the flu season in the Northern hemisphere and particularly the US and with the A/H1N1 pandemic level at stage 6. That combined with the fact that the A/H1N1 is following an almost identical pattern to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic either the US and European population will be facing serious illness and death or their governments will be focusing their attention on the potential for that situation and not on North Korea.

So how do I see this situation happening? If I was leading North Korea I would be moving missiles into place, building my nuclear stockpile, and making deals with military and government leaders in the South as mentioned above. In addition if I was confident in my missile technology I would hold off on missile tests and use the guise of more tests for the actual attack. If, however, I was worried about the ability of my missiles to strike I would step up my missile tests until they were ready. Once ready I would conduct 2-3 more tests and intentionally have them horribly fail then stop altogether until September or October. Once September or October arrived I would announce another missile "test" but in fact actually launch the full scale assault on South Korea and the nuclear launch of Japan. The only thing that would alter this would be if the A/H1N1 virus became severe in the US early, then I would take advantage of the situation and do the assault early.

Miller J. Wilson is currently an AMU student working on his BA in Intelligence Operations. In addition he is a volunteer for his local Medical Reserve Corps and Citizens Emergency Response Team (CERT).

A Resilient Industrial Base Relies on Human Capital

2009-06-22T17:50:19Z

By Irvin Varkonyi
Originally published in NDTA Defense Transportation Journal, April 2009

The Value of Human Capital

The nation has met the harsh challenges of protecting our national security, weakened by the tragedies of terrorism, natural disasters and low priorities of infrastructure protection, with an immense response at all levels of Government and the commercial sector. This response called on its citizens, whether they are the President of the United States, a night watchman at a semi-conductor factory or a university professor of supply chain management to not only exert maximum effort to protect each other but to recognize the value of human capital to detect, plan for, mitigate, respond and recover from disasters. Such action can make the difference in protecting our Defense Industrial Base, the loss of which, or severe weakening, would compound our weakness in maintaining national security.

Educating and training Human Capital will be the responsibility of the enterprises who employ us; of the universities who teach us rational reasoning and acquisition of knowledge; of professional associations such as the National Defense Transportation Association through their educational activities; and most importantly each of us to learn and continuously improve our knowledge in a rapidly changing world.

DHS' Critical Manufacturing Sector Specific Agency

Among recent developments at the Dept of Homeland Security in support of protecting critical infrastructure has been the formation of the Critical Manufacturing Sector Specific Agency (SSA). This SSA joined sixteen other SSA's including the Defense Industrial Base Critical Sector. The two SSA's are obviously interrelated as the security of the nation depends on our ability to produce the goods to support warfighters, Federal, state and local homeland security, and the commercial sector to sustain itself.

It is undeniable that the loss of key manufacturers in industries such as transportation equipment, automotive, electricals, primary metals and more will severely impact the security of the nation. How well do stakeholders understand these relationships? More important, how do stakeholders learn to collaborate to be Secure, Resilient and Prepared? The answer lies clearly in the ability to train, educate and motivate human capital.

Please pass on your experiences with institutions, organizations and universities who accept the value of human capital as the bulwark to protect the nation.

Irvin Varkonyi currently teaches courses in Transportation and Logistics Management as an adjunct professor at American Military University.

American al Qaeda Operative Adam Gadahn Alive; Releases New Video

2009-06-17T11:55:37Z

By Jenni Hesterman

Speculation of his death in a January, 2008 Predator strike in Waziristan has now been inarguably refuted: Adam Gadahn is alive and talking in his new 40 minute video entitled "Let's Continue our Jihad and Sacrifice."

He's been riding the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorist List for year, following indictment in the Central District of California for treason and material support to al Qaeda. The charges are related to Gadahn's alleged involvement in a number of terrorist activities, including providing aid, comfort and services to al Qaeda. The State Department's Rewards for Justice Program is offering up to $1 million for information leading to his arrest.

His latest video accuses President Obama of "standing behind the killing of Muslims in Palestine, Afghanistan and Pakistan", and speaks directly to the citizens of Gaza and Pakistan asking them to "unsheathe the swords of Jihad and arise". The NEFA foundation has posted a full copy of the transcript.

Adam Yahiye Gadahn was born in Oregon as Adam Perlman on September 1, 1978. His paternal grandfather was a prominent member of the Jewish community. At some point, Gadahn's father turned away from the Jewish faith, embracing Christianity, and the family changed their last name from Perlman to Gadahn (after the biblical warrior "Gideon"). Gadahn was raised and homeschooled on an isolated farm in Southern California, yet he became a fan of "Death Metal" music and even started his own heavy metal band. In 1994, worried about the negative influence of his friends, his parents sent him away, at age of 16, to live with his grandparents in Florida.

A year later, Gadahn became a vivid internet surfer. Always curious about religions, he accessed information on the Internet about the Islamic religion; he then became involved with a local group and eventually converted. He posted an essay to a University of Southern California website entitled "Becoming a Muslim" where he discusses his Jewish and Christian background and why he wanted to convert. In 1998, he moved to Pakistan and married an Afghan refugee.

It is not known exactly how he came to become involved with al Qaeda, where he is known as "Azzam the American"or "Azzam al-Amriki". It is known that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed recruited Gadahn for an AQ suicide attack in Maryland in 2003, but Gadahn's wife had just delivered his child, so he begged out of the operation. In 2005, the FBI warned that Gadahn was part of a group of 7 al Qaeda operatives planning an attack in the U.S. In the intervening years, Gadahn has been part of many al Qaeda videos, as either spokesperson or producer, and he worked with Osama bin Laden on his Oct 2007 video.

An al Qaeda video released last month featured Gadahn speaking (in American English) to several recruits, explaining life in the organization. The video was thought to target American youth. The date of Gadahn's talk couldn't exactly be determined, therefore speculation remained about his death. That speculation ended this week with the release of his video.

"Azzam the American" is once again hiding in plain sight.

About the Author Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism expert. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies and is a contributing editor for The Counter Terrorist Magazine. You may contact the author at JLHBlog@aol.com.

The Blog@ Homeland Security

2009-06-16T14:40:20Z

With hopes to provide an "inside-out view" of what is done every day in the world of homeland security, the DHS launched a new site The Blog @Homeland Security.

The Realities of Covert Action Review and Approval Process

2009-06-10T22:43:58Z

By Miller J. Wilson

William J. Daugherty makes some good points in his paper but I would have to disagree with him. The review process for covert actions fails on many levels and for many reasons. Some of these reasons include the sheer number of people who are briefed about actions, the lack of punitive actions against Congressmen/women who leak information, and the belief that somehow it is impossible that an action could not be taken without a Presidential Finding or Congressional approval. I shall discuss each point and why it causes the review process to fail below.

Let us start by discussing the first problem which is the sheer number of people who have knowledge of a covert action. As Daugherty states, "the total number of witting persons on Capitol Hill was no longer small, for selected committee staff were also read into the programs." (Daugherty 2004 P.64) This increase of the number of people who have knowledge about a cover action 1) takes away any form of "plausible deniability", which is one of the reasons for a covert action, if it is discovered and 2) increases the chances of the covert action being discovered either by accidental or intentional leaks, which is counter to the idea of covertness. The commonly understood definition of "covert" is to be secret or secretive. Common sense tells us that the more people who have knowledge about something the less secret it is and so by increasing the number of people who are briefed by a covert action the less covert it becomes.
The next problem of the review process for covert actions is the lack of punitive actions against Congressmen/women who leak information. This is evidenced by Daugherty when he states, "And finally, a less-than-respectable but just as effective ''last resort veto'' could be achieved simply by leaking the existence of the Finding to the press," as there is currently no law that prevents or punishes members of Congress who chose to go this route despite the fact that doing so can and does put allies, whether other states or individuals, in danger as evidenced by the threats or terrorists against nations which housed "US Secret Prisons" after that information was leaked. (Daugherty 2004 P.65)
Finally, Daugherty believes so strongly that "rogue actions" are impossible that he devotes an entire section explaining why they are impossible. (Daugherty 2004 P76) Not only does this belief remove any form of "plausible deniability", one of the main reasons for covert actions, but it ignores the reality that they have happened even with the review process as evidenced by the Iran-Contra affair and the "Enhanced Interrogations" controversy (if we are to believe Congressional Leaders who deny about having knowledge or being briefed about both.) It seems highly unlikely that an intelligence agency, which trains personnel to set up shell companies and hide involvement in activities, would be unable to set up shell companies or siphon funds from one project to pay for another project undetected when the same tactics are successfully employed everyday by private sector companies and criminal organizations. Again I must point to the Iran-Contra affair as evidence that this has happened in the past.
Though there are other problems with the review process these three are the most prominent which prevent it from being effective. The large number of people given knowledge of covert actions increases the chance of leaks and removes "plausible deniability", both of which are key components to covert actions. The ability of Members of Congress to leak information for personal or political reasons without any punitive action also puts all covert actions at risk and puts our allies in danger. Finally the review process is merely a façade that allows Members of Congress to believe that they have authority and control of covert actions even though this control is limited by the professionalism and willingness of the IC to be open, honest, and willing participants. The reality of the review process is that Members of Congress use it as a political tool to either embarrass opponents or use as leverage for their political gain while failing to see that the IC has the ability and resources to simply disregard it at anytime of their choosing even if this is unlikely.

Resources:
Daugherty, William J. 2004. Approval and Review of Covert Action Since Reagan. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence. Tailor & Francis Group. Internet. Hosted by American Military University. [accessed: 06/03/09].

Pelosi Briefed in 2002 About Enhanced Interrogation Methods, accessed 06/07/2009

Department of Justice Experts Testify on Violence, Drugs, Guns at the Southern Border

2009-05-18T13:21:36Z

By Jenni Hesterman

On May 6th, Department of Justice leaders outlined their roles and strategies as related to combating drugs and gun trafficking at/around the U.S. border with Mexico to the House's Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security. The hearing's title encapsulates the problem at hand: "Escalating Violence in Mexico and the Southwest Border as a Result of the Illicit Drug Trade".

The opening statement by the Chairman, Congressman Smith (R-TX), contained some conventional wisdom such as the escalation in violence is due to the Mexican government's crackdown on cartels in the country. However, he discussed the Mexican perspective on the problem: according to their government, 64% of drug related violence is concentrated in just 3 states in Mexico, where only 15% of their population lives. Also, the Mexican government points out the murder rate is Juarez is 6 times lower than Columbia's murder rate in the 90s. Perhaps the underlying message was that Mexico considers this a serious problem, but not a crisis as the U.S. believes.

In his opening statement, Congressman Gohmert (R-TX) stated the Sinaloa cartel is now authorizing use of force to protect drug operations in the U.S. He also discussed that Forbes Magazine's list of billionaires now includes Joaquin Guzman Loera, head of the Sinaloa cartel and one of the most wanted men in Mexico. He also emphasized that Cartel violence in Mexico goes hand-in-hand with demand and use in the U.S.

ATF's representative William Hoover, Acting Deputy Director, expressed his agency's concern over increasing use of explosives, such as grenades, in cartel violence. He discussed ATF's Project Gunrunner which includes 148 ATF agents stationed along the border to investigate gun trafficking issues. He mentioned that over 100 extra ATF agents were just sent to Houston field division to support a push to stop the movement of guns across the border. Mr. Hoover also mentioned ATF's role in EPIC - the El Paso Intelligence Center. EPIC was established in 1974 to address drug issues at and around the border. Led by the DEA, EPIC has a staff of 300 personnel and liaison officers from 15 agencies.

DEA's representative, Anthony P. Placido, Assistant Administrator for Intelligence shared some interesting data about the drugs themselves. In 2008, estimated worldwide production of cocaine ranged between 901-1082 metric tons, with 528 metric tons seized, around 48%. Mexican specific data: 18% of heroin produced and 21% of marijuana produced was seized. Mr. Placido also discussed shifts in price and purity of cocaine. When scarcity occurs, there is a noticeable fluxuation in purity and traffickers add fillers such as sugar and lactose to the product. When drugs are scarce, the price goes up but purity drops - DEA witnessed a 35% drop in the purity of cocaine, a distinct indicator of decreased availability.

Congressman Poe (R-TX) mentioned a "turf battle" between federal agencies working border issues. He specifically asked the DEA rep if ICE should have more responsibility in drug investigations - the answer was that if ICE worked within the rules, they would welcome their assistance. Ms. Ayala, the ICE representative at the hearing, stated an increase of 95 agents to SW border, an increase in 50% of ICE attaché personnel, a quadrupling of border liaison officers, and an increase of 3 times the intelligence commitment to the border.

CW Jackson Lee (D-TX) addressed her legislation, H.R. 1900 - Border Security, Cooperation, and Act Now Drug War Prevention Act. This law would allow governors to declare emergencies and seek from DHS and DOJ emergency increase in border patrol, DEA, ATF agents and equipment. It also creates task force with ATF, DEA, and Border Patrol and monitors their liaising with local law enforcement.

When asked his thoughts on her legislation, the DEA rep responded this is a much larger problem than the border with cartel- related problems now spread throughout the U.S. He stated that a focused attack on the criminal organization itself vice geographically focused efforts is a better answer. He also mentioned that intra-cartel violence has always happened, however, there is a new and disturbing trend - cartels lashing out against the Mexican government. He cited concern in DOJ about their potential to also lash out against our government.

Some generally agreed upon issues in the hearing:

- In 2008, violence in the cartel fight for trafficking routes left over 6,000 dead, including 500 police and soldiers. More than 1,000 have already killed in early 2009.

- The violence is gruesome - it is meant to terrorize communities and force the Mexican government to abandon its efforts to shut down the cartels.

- There is kidnapping for ransom escalation within the U.S. and related to the cartels.

- Corruption is a problem in Mexico and continues to fuel their internal problems and prevent them from achieving their goals.

- Mexico needs to protect the border from guns and money heading south.

- Drugs and guns go hand-in-hand: firearms are used to protect routes, firearms are traded for drugs; firearms offered to raise cash.

- Bulk cash smuggling at the border must be addressed - cutting off cartel funding is critical.

The webcast of this hearing is available online.

(Note: the author's article "Mexican Drug War Spilling Across the Border" is the cover story in the June/July issue of The Counter Terrorist Magazine)

About the Author

Jenni Hesterman is a retired Air Force colonel and counterterrorism expert. She is a senior analyst for The MASY Group, a Global Intelligence and Risk Management firm that supports both the U.S. Government and leading corporations. She is also an adjunct professor at American Military University, teaching courses in homeland security and intelligence studies and is a contributing editor for The Counter Terrorist Magazine. You may contact the author at JLHBlog@aol.com.

Is A/H1N1 (Swine Flu) Pandemic Over????

2009-05-15T14:54:43Z

By Miller J. Wilson

Over the past few weeks we have seen the general public's concern about the H1N1 virus go from the verge of panic to almost nothing. The reason for this is that despite the increasing number of cases reported there have been few deaths outside of Mexico and so the average person is beginning to believe that the worst is over, but is it?

The sad thing is that we don't know for sure how deadly the H1N1 virus will become until September or October when the next flu season starts. In fact, if we look at the chart for the 1918 H1N1 pandemic deaths in the US we can see that similar conditions existed about this time when it first began.

Now lets look at the numbers for the current H1N1 virus for both the entire world and where the deaths have occurred. The numbers were taken from the World Health Organizations H1N1 update on 05/14/2009 and so are current at the time of this article.

World Wide H1N1 Confirmed Cases and Deaths (confirmed cases include deaths):
Cases: 6,497 (100% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 65 (100% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 1%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 10

United States:
Cases: 3,352 (51.59%% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 3 (4% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 0.089%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 0.89

Mexico:
Cases: 2,446 (37.65% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 60 (92.3% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 2.5%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 25

Canada:
Cases: 389 (5.99% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 1 (1.54% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 0.25%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 2.57 (Projected from current death:case ratio)

Costa Rica:
Cases: 8 (0.12% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 1 (1.54% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 12.5%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 125 (Projected from current death:case ratio)

All other locations:
Cases: 302 (4.65% World Wide Cases)
Deaths: 0 (0% World Wide Deaths)
Mortality Rate: 0%
Deaths per 1,000 cases: 0

Now if we look at the current numbers, especially the deaths per 1,000 cases in both US and total for the world, we see that we are at about the same numbers that the 1918 H1N1 had around June 29, 1918 and that after a quick spike in cases and deaths around the middle of July it disappeared only to return with 5-6 times the deaths in September 1918. It is because of this that epidemiologists that specialize in the influenza are still concerned about where this H1N1 virus will lead.

So what will this H1N1 virus do? The answer to that question is something that we do not know but there are few possibilities which follow:

It could become like the 1976 swine flu and simply do nothing
It could recombine with the common flu and become resistant to anti-virals (Tamiflu) but also become only a nuisance.
It could follow the path of the 1918 pandemic (which it shows signs of doing) and infect 30% of the world population and kill 120 million people.
It could genetically recombine with the H5N1 Avian Flu (60% mortality rate), infect 30% of the world population and kill 1.2 Billion people.

As you can see the biggest worry is that while H1N1 spreads around Asia, where it is now, or other regions where the H5N1 is found in humans it will have a chance to genetically recombine. This recombinant strain could lose its high communicability rate gain a high mortality rate and become able to pass human to human. Or it could keep its high communicability rate, gain H5N1's resistance to anti-virals (Tamiflu,) and gain the high mortality rate of H5N1 which is 60% and kill 1,000,000,000+ (1 Billion+) people around the world.

Now I know all this can seem scary, especially when you look at the numbers alone, but that is not my intention. For the first time in history we are able to track the H1N1 virus in real time and so will be able to see how it mutates. This will allow us to prepare better and allow developed nations to reduce the number of deaths. Now if this does not help alleviate your fears we can put the current situation into perspective by comparing the numbers for the H1N1 virus in the US with the annual numbers for the seasonal flu in the US. According to the Center for Disease control the seasonal flu infects 15,202,986-60,811,945 people or 5%-20% of the total population. Out of these 200,000 people or 0.3%-1.3% of the total cases are hospitalized and 36,000 people or 0.06%-0.2% die. This equals 0.6-2 deaths per 1,000 cases. As you can see the current numbers for the H1N1 virus and the seasonal flu are about the same as far as mortality rate.

Now that you are informed I hope that you are better able to put everything in perspective so that you can prepare for the worst without worrying.

Miller J. Wilson is currently an AMU student working on his BA in Intelligence Operations. In addition he is a volunteer for his local Medical Reserve Corps and Citizens Emergency Response Team (CERT).

Preventing Radicalization

2009-05-05T17:55:09Z

By Miller J. Wilson

One of the best ways to fight Jihad is to prevent the radicalization of people. If you have read any of the RAND reports then you will know that Jihadists are pretty much self- recruited after they have become radicalized.

The way this happens is when a person or group is isolated from the main stream of society. This isolation leads to feelings of despair, loss of control, and anger towards the main stream society. When this happens the individual or group begins looking for a cause that they can be apart of that they feel is bigger than them. Once they find the cause they become fanatics in order to prove their "true" belief surround themselves with people and information that justifies their fanaticism. Once they are surrounded by only one view they lose the diverse social reference which keeps unsocial behavior in check in place of a single social reference that encourages unsocial behavior. Without having social peers to tell them that certain ideas and beliefs are unacceptable they grow in their fanaticism which in turn isolates them further from main stream society and into a vicious cycle of growing radicalization and social isolation.

So how does that information help us to prevent radicalization? The answer is that we must make great effort to help people assimilate into the main stream culture in a way that they do not feel that they are giving up their culture. One of the reasons Europe is having problems with radical Muslims is that they are failing to assimilate these groups into their society. The US is facing a similar problem with both legal and illegal aliens from Mexico and South America as well as a growing Muslim population. Both these groups isolate themselves from the main stream culture of the US and concentrate into neighborhoods where they are the majority. They seldom socialize with people from outside these neighborhoods and so have their social reference limited to that neighborhoods ideas and lacking the mainstream US social reference. By taking the lead and having a group socialize with an individual that individual will gain the main stream social reference of the US and the feeling of isolation will be lessened which in turn will aid in assimilation. One of the ways in which this can be done is to ask questions about the other culture and answer questions about your culture. This aids in the assimilation process further by educating the person about US culture without them feeling like they have to give up their culture.

In the end radicalization will still exist either because some people come here after being radicalized in their own country and other reasons but we can limit the number of people being radicalized. By limiting the number of people being radicalized we limit the number of potential threats and increase the number of productive people in the US. This prevents an increase in potential attacks which makes our lives safer. Because of this it is vital to the entire US population and our culture that we do everything we can to lessen the isolation of people and aid their assimilation into US society. After all "an ounce of preventions is worth more than a pound of cure."

The Effectiveness of Gitmo and the Terrorist Detainee Program

2009-05-01T19:39:17Z

By Miller J. Wilson

For everyone out there that keeps screaming for Guantanamo Bay to be shut down and that our interrorgation tactics, including waterboarding, are ineffective here are 8 plots that have been stopped because of Guantanamo Bay and our interrorgation tactics.

1-The West Coast Airliner Plot: In mid-2002, thanks to leads from a variety of detainees, the US disrupted a plot by 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaykh Mohamad (KSM) to attack targets on the West Coast of the United States using hijacked airplanes.

2- The 2004 UK Urban Targets Plot: In mid-2004, the US and its counterterrorism partners disrupted a plot that involved attacking urban targets in the United Kingdom with explosive devices. Some of the key leads to these plotters came from detainees.

3- The 2003 Karachi Plot: In the spring of 2003, the US and a partner detained key al-Qa'ida operatives who were in the advanced stages of plotting an attack against several targets in Karach, Pakistan that would have killed hundres of innocent men, women, and children.

4- The Heathrow Airport Plot: In 2003, the US and several parners--acting on information from several detainess--disrupted a plot to attack Heathrow Aiport using hijacked commercial airliners. KSM and his network were behind the planning for this attack.

5- The 2002 Arabian Gulf Shipping Plot: In late 2002 and early 2003, the work of the US and parner nations to detain two senior al-Qa'ida operatives thwarted these operatives' plot to attack ships in the Arabian Gulf.

6- The Straits of Hormuz Plot: One of the Arabian Gulf shipping plotters was also working on a plot to attack ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. His detention disrupted this plot.

7- The Tall Buildings Plot: Working with information from detainees, the US disrupted a plot to blow up tall buildings in the United States. KSM later described how he had directed operatives to ensure the buildings wer high enough to prevent the people trapped above from escaping out of the windows, thus ensuring their deaths from smok inhalation.

8- Camp Lemonier Plot: In early 2004. shortly after his capture, al-Qa'ida facilitator Goled Hassan Dourad revealed that in mid-2003 al-Qa'ida East Africa cell leader Abu Talha al-Sudani sent him from Mogadishu to Djibouti to case the US Marine base at Camp Lemonier, as part of a plot to send suicide bombers with a truck bomb into the base. His information--including identifying operatives associated with the plot--helped us to enhance the security at the camp.

In addition to these plots our interrorgation techniques and detainee program, including waterboarding and Guantamano Bay, allowed us to identify and capture Khalid Shaykh Mohammad as well as many other top terrorist leaders belonging to al-Qa'ida and other organizations. But don't just take my report you can read the report on the C-SPAN website by clicking HERE.

H1N1 Influenza Virus (Swine Flu) and the Effects on National Security

2009-04-30T15:39:57Z

By Miller J. Wilson

With the outbreak of the H1N1 virus spreading throughout the globe and threatening to become a pandemic virus one must wonder what the effects will be on the security of nations around the world. An Associated Press report projects an estimated of 90 million ill and 2 million deaths in the US and some British experts claim 120 million deaths world-wide should H1N1 turn into a pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic.

However, the potential cost in health is limited compared to the potential threats to National Security and economy.

One of the biggest threats that a H1N1 pandemic creates is the devastation to the economy. According to Julian Jessop of Capital Economics, the World Bank predicts a global pandemic could cause a loss of over 3 trillion dollars or 4.8% of the world's GDP due in part to losing 30% of the workforce because of illness . Having this happen when economies around the world are already on the brink of collapse from the credit and housing crises could cause even the most stable economies to collapse. But one does not have to wait for this worst case scenario to see the damage to the economy as stocks fall, countries ban pork products, and currency loses value. This damage to the already battered economies of the world could thrust the world into a depression that is impossible to avoid.

With the collapse of economies and increased numbers of cases comes another threat to national security and that is riots. As governments try to gain a handle on the outbreaks it is inevitable that some will try to impose forced quarantines as China did during the 2003 SARS crises, which in turn led to riots. But even without forced quarantines the chance for riots is increased as refugees from less developed nations, real or imagined, flood the most developed nations and citizens become frustrated that their governments do nothing.

This can already be seen in the U.S. as proponents for border closings are already demanding. Compounding this problem will be the increased fear and frustration caused by an increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths in an area that naturally leads to mass hysteria and anger at the central government that seems unable or unwilling to help out as we witnessed in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

Finally, a pandemic would weaken the defense capabilities of the states most affected and would be a great opportunity for another state to attack either using conventional or cyber warfare. With viruses in the electrical grid placed by Russian and Chinese hackers and Chinese microchips installed in the military aircraft, the U.S. is particularly vulnerable to this. In addition to outside threats is the threat of militants within a country staging rebellions or coups. This is especially true for countries with weak central governments that already have problems with militants, such as Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In the end we will have to wait to see where this current H1N1 crisis takes us as it could wind up doing nothing, as the swine flu scare of 1976 was, or slowing during the summer only to return with catastrophic devastation as the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic did. The one thing that we do know is that we had better address all of the security concerns now while there is time instead of waiting until it is too late.

Pirates on the Carribean

2009-04-14T14:20:13Z

For the last few years, Pirates on the Carribean conjured the swashbuckling antics of Johnny Depp. Nowadays romantized notions of such a thing has been put to rest by the real thing.

In Homeland Security blogger Jenni Hesterman, warned travelers of such happenings months ago.

State Department Issues Travel Alert for Popular Vacation Spot

2009-02-27T22:31:15Z

As we approach spring break, the State Department has recently issued a travel alert for Mexico, a favorite vacation spot for many during this time of the year.

Policing Terrorism in the United States

2009-02-26T16:31:05Z

Michael P. Downing, Deputy Chief and Commanding Officer of the Los Angeles Police Dept. (LAPD) writes an insightful article on strategies that are being put in place to combat increasingly sophisticated criminal networks and national security threats.

Surviving A Nuclear Attack

2009-02-18T20:36:01Z

Disaster-medicine expert Irwin Redlener gives a talk on how humanity might survive natural or human-made disasters.

ABC's Homeland Security reality TV show Nothing But Propaganda?

2009-02-02T13:40:28Z

"Homeland Security USA,'' is an ABC reality series that tracks the daily efforts of the federal workers responsible for safeguarding the nation's airports, borders, waters and anyplace else threats might arise.

Viewers see behind-the-scences action of agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Transportation Security Administration.

The show has already drawn much attention from folks who think it's nothing but government propaganda. A Facebook group that wants the show off the air has already been created.

Have you been watching? If so, what are your thoughts?