Myriads of books try to capitalized on Warren Buffett’s name.  Pick one of the two best:

• Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein
• Of Permanent Value: The Story of Warren Buffett, Abridged Edition by Andrew Kilpatrick

Classics:

• Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip A. Fisher
• The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, especially chapters 8 and 20.
• In the hunt for big game, I have always thought Super Stocks by Ken Fisher was the standard bearer.
• The Battle For Investment Survival by Gerald M. Loeb defines classic.
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is loved by all market junkies.
• The Money Masters by John Train is simple and elegant.

Old school historical:  Fifty Years in Wall Street by Henry Clews

The Bear Book: Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets by John Rothchild.  Looks like you’ll have to buy this one used or with a goofy cover.  But it is excellent.

Confessions of a Street Addict by Jim Cramer was actually fantastic.

The economic and history student could start with Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt and A Splendid Exchange by William J. Bernstein.

Purchasing the shares of a fantastic business for a modest prices is central to investing.  You know, the business which grows by 30% a year for a decade or has a long term competitive advantage.  So I’m a sucker for Built from Scratch and The King of Cash type books.

My bookshelves are full but this should be a good start.  Perhaps next time we’ll look at books with a speculative bent.

Disclosure:  I receive a few pennies if you purchase a book through the link.

The post Investment Books appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Last week esteemed trader Peter Brandt made a bearish call in Why I think the dead-cat bounce in U.S. stocks may be just about over.  But Brandt closed with:  “By the way, a close above 1415 makes me question the bearish interpretation. A close above 1431 would lean me bullish on the charts.”  Markets have not rolled over just yet…

The doom and gloom prophesy’s are popular because, well, the developed world fundamentals are a mess.  We all know the credit bubble imbalances cannot be maintained permanently and looks to end with ginormous debasement.  While not conspiratorial and lunatic sounding, ISA is proud member of the goldbug community and our bullishness shall remain steadfast.

Further, many investors are afraid of Obamacare as it is implemented over the next couple of years, while higher taxes appear in the offing along with more regulations.

But listen to the markets.  We followed Chess as he noted the divergences in the small post Obama re-election stock swoon.

The 2008 financial crisis was decades in the making as markets were not allowed to liquidate.  So we know the next recession ought to be a doozy.  A judgement still needs to occur.  Generational buying opportunities should be coming.  But what if not just yet?  Perhaps the reckoning is still a bit into the future.

Could Germany’s economy be turning the corner (Sober Look)?  While the interest rate lugnut is artificial, the household formation piece is a real driver as housing is quite strong (Mark Perry).  Energy and auto’s are economic tailwinds too.  Last week’s Bill McBride interview was refreshingly realistic and positive.  Maybe the disparaged Chairman’s optimism turns out to be right.  Did the internet revolution end over Thanksgiving weekend?  Even I upgraded to a smartphone!

Latest indicators show China avoiding a hard landing at Sober Look.  A Chinese stabilisation, to say nothing of a re-acceleration, would be especially positive for the commodity complex.

Meanwhile, the term ‘goldbug’ does not mean gold bull.  But here are two goldbugs little short of ragingly bullish:  Turd Fergusson and Toby Connor.

Most interesting are the opportunities operating more independently.  If natural gas fundamentals have turned the corner, both our favorite gasser and coal name would be in outstanding position.

The charts in Marc Faber’s Deflationary Bust or Government Profligacy and Money Printing are outstanding.  Here is the video presentation.

Citi: Here’s What The World’s Most Important Commodities Will Do In 2013 at BI.  ISA will suggest Citi’s natural gas and silver average price predictions could possibly be below the low mark for the entire year.

Interested in following JJ Butler’s fundamental thoughts as they develop?  Become a member for $100 a year!

The post Market Posture appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

The lag effect of the natural gas boom and also associated gas production has kept production high.  For several years investors scratched their heads over E&P’s continuing to spend and drill beyond cashflow.

Guess what?  The worm could be about to turn in a big way.  One time growth machines hate natural gas and love oil and liquids.  On Q3 conference calls many management teams talked openly about declines in their natural gas production.

ECA’s conservative Randy Eresman:

Note his attitude:  “…we believe that the price ratio between oil and natural gas will be maintained at a level which far exceeds the historical average. Therefore, we believe that there will continue to be a strong driver to increase liquids in our portfolio even as natural gas prices rise.”

Absent a long lead time project, ECA’s production would almost crash next year:  “Our decline would have been — we would have been dropping off about 10% of production that’s being offset by the Deep Panuke project coming on.”

Consider the coal displacement, which Independent Stock Analysis readers know most of which is permanently closed:  “On the demand side, we see an increased use of natural gas as it continues to displace coal-fired power generation. Relative to 2008 levels, we estimate that approximately 8 billion cubic feet per day year-to-date of natural gas demand has been gained from coal to gas displacement. This has contributed significantly to reduce storage inventories surplus, relative to the 5-year average, from about 927 billion cubic feet at the end of the winter to about 250 billion cubic feet today.”

CHK’s flamboyant Aubrey McClendon:

“Turning to natural gas markets, much to the amazement of most observers, the market has overcome an almost 900 bcf storage surplus from just seven months ago to a year-over-year storage surplus today of just about 120 bcf. We believe the small remaining storage overhang should soon go into a year-over-year deficit…”

“And coal to gas switching in the electrical generation market is proving stickier at higher gas prices than many assumed it would.”

“And we simply view that today’s strip for 2013 and frankly, for years beyond that, does not reflect a full appreciation of what happens when big producers like us reverse course and go in to managed decline. And as Nick said in his remarks, we’ll be down 7% year-over-year. That will be the first year in 23 years that our company had experienced a gas production decline, Chesapeake has been responsible for about 30% of all the gas production growth the whole industry has generated in the past five years.

CHK’s Nick Dell’Osso:

“And so, when we roll over, we think we will pull the whole market with us and we think that the prices that we see out in 2013 do not reflect that. In fact, I saw one Wall Street piece even this morning that projected the Haynesville will be flat to up in 2013 gas production. It’s simply impossible. Our production is already down 25% from a peak. Our Barnett production is already off at 11% from its peak. Steve mentioned that our Haynesville production will be declining by 9% quarter-over-quarter, third quarter to fourth quarter.”

Must ado in the industry is paid the Marcellus and its mitigating influence on the industry.  Nick:  “…we’re the biggest producer in the Marcellus and we just don’t see the Marcellus being able to overcome the declines that are going to happen in the Haynesville and in the Barnett along with all the other conventional gas that today, of course, still represents about more than 50% of all the gas production in the U.S.” 

UPL’s Mike Watford:

“For those who question the natural gas rig count reduction, from 900 rigs to 400 rigs, without any associated production impacts, we can look at ourselves to see the lag. We exited 2011 with monthly production of about 22 Bcfe. With a 50% cut in capital for 2012, first quarter production grew to 23 Bcfe a month, second quarter, 22 Bcfe a month and third quarter, 21 Bcfe a month. Production lags CapEx on the downside, as well as on the upside.

So industry-wide, you are just beginning to see natural gas production rollover. Once it begins, it will accelerate, then I think we are looking at a 2-year window of monthly reductions in domestic natural gas supply.

So it’s taken us, and the industry some time, to react to the market signals, but we have and we won’t be quick to over invest in the coming years. And we’ve seen natural gas prices respond positively, but they are a long, long way away from levels that will attract capital.”

In short, the ISA gas over oil thesis continues to look good.

Are your investing interests similar to JJ Butler’s?  Curious as to ISA’s favorite natural gas investment?  Visit the homepage and become an Independent Stock Analysis member today!

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The post NG Calls appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

The super-majors can’t really increase production, they just increase production on a per share basis with continual share buybacks.  Chevron warned.  Costs balloon on Norway projects (Upstream Online).

“Global oil demand is looking weaker than previously forecast as the slowing economy continues to weigh on consumption, according to monthly reports released on Wednesday by the U.S. government and OPEC.”  Reuters

Meanwhile, North Dakota’s exponential oil production sets more new records in August by Mark Perry:

When Continental announced its 5 year plan to triple production, a new field was announced (News OK) while targeting big well cost savings (Reuters).

Over in the Eagle Ford:

“He said current estimates suggest 20,000 wells will be needed to produce the oil and gas available in the Eagle Ford. With about 1,250 wells capable of being drilled a year, it would take about 16 years to reach that capacity, Hunt said.

That estimate could grow  by a factor of four, however,  if technology allows drillers  to get more natural resources out of smaller leases, the economist said.”  Houston Chronicle

Canadian oil output to rise 8.3% this year: U.S. energy department at Financial Post.

A huge Utica well was announced by Gulfport.

Is Natural Gas Killing Solar?  AOL Energy.  Quadrillion?  North American Shale Gas Resources Estimated at 3.3 Quadrillion Cubic Feet (Qcf), NGI Reports at Herald Online.

Should we be worried about higher natural gas prices?  Fuel Fix

Natural Gas Prices: Pain in Context at Haynesville Play.  In light of the Haynesville rig count, perhaps “Haynesville and Anadarko Drive Production Decline“ becomes the norm.  If so, you’ll want to see this mornings ISA post on an old friend.

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The post Big Oil & Gas appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

The short answer is I agree.

While ISA is not a financial adviser, a picture is continually being painted.  On one hand, the macro picture is ugly enough for statements like “Global markets and economies are mired in the early stages of the biggest disaster ever.”  On the flip side, the world economy is seeing tens of millions of third world peasants annually being lifted out of poverty while the U.S. economy is a bright spot.

Where to invest, however, is a different story.  As a believer in the industrialization of China story, ISA continually notes the materials and commodity complex.  Well understood, however, should be the idea this sector may be muddling for quite some time.  Perhaps investors and speculators will be fortunate enough to see remarkable values in the sector next year.  No one knows.  A currency trader looking to pyramid a big move could consider attempting to short the resource based Australian dollar.

Oil and energy certainly receive a great deal of attention at Independent Stock Analysis.

I continue to stalk entering a thermal coal position through CLD.  As I grow comfortable with the idea natural gas may be entering a cyclical bull market, I actually moved a gasser toward the top of my watch list this morning.  Weal C.

But the reader’s question and statement involved opportunity.  Well documented should be the possibility of the precious metals complex enjoying short, intermediate and long term bull markets.  Gold, silver, and the mining company’s have consolidated recent gains are knocking on an upside breakout…again.  Two newsletters I respect and follow suggested this week (here and here) the precious metals complex looks to correct before marching higher.   I don’t kiss raging bulls and I did not post their commentary.  One already flipped his stance (nothing wrong with doing so).

Position trumps.  I’m just a fundamental stock guy who is knee deep in precious metals.  Were I tempted sell at the moment, I would turn off the computer and stop by the cigar shop on my way to the golf course.  But we all have the right and obligation to change our mind.

The post Q&A: Positioning appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

The oil price hinges on economic growth:  Saudi Gazette.

Maugheri vs The Oil Drum: Cornucopians vs The Peak Oil Crowd at Million Dollar Way.

The best Bakken news you’ll read all month in Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week.  Finally, a detailed analysis of the price XOM paid for DNR’s Bakken acreage:  Richard Zeits.

Lower consumption and higher production:  U.S. net petroleum imports for January-July 2012 were down 13% year over year.  EIA

Oil rigs were down modestly while gas rigs were down substantially:  Haynesville Play.

With natural gas higher another 2% this morning, Chartology: Natural Gas Recovery and Price Analysis at See It Market.  Thoughts on associated gas production:  Haynesville Play.

Are you interested in the continuous thoughts of JJ Butler on the commodity complex?  Visit the Independent Stock Analysis home page and become a member today for only $100 a year.

The post Oil Hinge appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

With $4 natural gas now considered a spike (Financial Post), the dynamics have changed.  Should natural gas prices rise modestly, a reverse in fuel switching from natural gas to coal will show the emperor wearing no clothes.  The coal production is not there.  Electrical generation fuel will be short.  Robust inventory will be burned quickly enough.  A modest decline in natural gas supply will begin a strong U.S. thermal coal cycle.

India to take center stage?  “No one is discounting China’s future as a major thermal coal importer, but India will need increasing amounts of electricity if it is to fulfill its infrastructure growth plans, US coal export executives said Thursday.”  Platts.  However, beware of U.S. export opposition via Oregon Live.

China’s Aug coal stocks up 37-69% on year at mines, ports, power plants: CNCA at Platts.  Coal’s golden decade fades in China. What next?  “There are disagreements over how quickly coal industry will recover.”  Marketwatch

Internationally, “Cashed-up Japanese, Korean and Chinese buyers are waiting in the wings to snap up bargains, particularly in the coal sector, investment bankers and lawyers said.”  Globe and Mail

Continue to beware struggling U.S. coking coal producers, especially Alpha.  ““The reflation trade may not have long legs” at FT Alphaville.

Coal-Fired Plants Mothballed by Gas Glut at WSJ.

Really, really long term, wind may be a threat to coal:  Smart Brief.

The Independent Stock Analysis coal page has ongoing coverage.  If you are interested in JJ Butler’s continuous aggregation and thoughts, become a member today for $100 a year!

The post King Coal’s Clothes appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

First, an introduction to rail tank cars:  RBN Energy.  Rail oil prospects excite Wall Street at Railway Age.  Some standbys suffering, but rail industry has rebounded at Times Online.

“North American rail shipments of crude oil are estimated to have grown by 360,000 barrels per day within the past 12 months to reach 465,000 bpd…”  Financial Post

To this point, oil on rail growth has been driven by the Bakken (Mark Perry).  Statoil leased 1000 rail cars to make the trip to the gulf coast (Statoil).  Bakken oil is going to head east as well (Fuel Fix).

As U.S. oil production booms without the pipeline capacity available for transportation, the higher cost rail option becomes necessary.  Importantly, often the trains take the oil to where it is priced of Brent instead of WTI.

Meanwhile, it’s not just oil.  Frac sands needs to be moved too:  Star Tribune.

Especially in Canada, Rail gains steam as a crude oil mover at Globe and Mail.

Further investigation of the rails is necessary and should be profitable.  Stay tuned!  Do you enjoy Independent Stock Analysis?  Add JJ Butler to your investing toolkit.  For $100 a year, become a member today!

The post Oil on Rails appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Oil Rises to $100 for First Time Since May After Stimulus at Bloomberg.

Yesterday China’s weak apparent demand was noted.  What if Chinese demand returns.  And the Chinese are filling SPR’s:  E&P Magazine.

Saudi Arabia’s shale gas push at Financial Post.

Brent oil technical analysis, prior to yesterday’s money printing announcement:  Greg Harmon.

Did you know “The Gulf of Mexico deepwater rig count should surpass pre-moratorium levels by the end of 2012″ at Rigzone.  Two years ago North Sea oil & gas production taxes were raised unilaterally, now UK Tax Breaks Could Boost North Sea Development (E&P Mag).  While operator economics are greatly effected, this fiddling only adjusts the North Sea decline rate.

Chevron was unable to quietly build a cash hoard:  CNBC.

“Backlog of more than 1,000 non-producing implied wells will keep dry natural gas production growing in the northern Marcellus through at least 2013…incremental dry gas production growth in Northeast Pennsylvania at approximately 0.9 Bcf/d through January 2013.”  Bentek

The dry gas Haynesville outstanding and improving well productivity is examined by Richard Zeits here and part II.  Specifically, hyperbolic declines rates have improved greatly and that’s a big problem for natural gas bulls.

Later today Independent Stock Analysis will take an extensive look stimulus and the materials sector, including this natural gas effect on coal.  Would you enjoy this analysis daily?  For $100 a year, follow JJ Butler.  Become a member today!

The post Oil & Gas and Money Printing appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

The rally from deeply oversold levels was sparked by China approving infrastructure projects.  Many bulls have been clinging to coking coal.  Further signs of stimulus plans from a slowing China at Mining.  The End of the China Steel Trade by Peter Pham.  Chinese Seen Importing Less Coal From Australia by DNB Markets at Bloomberg.

US miner Consol sees steelmaking coal prices up in 2013 at Mining Weekly.  I listened to the same presentation and my notes differ:  ‘He indicated the next year should have a shake out of the marginal met coal producers.  The thermal coal market seemed to reach a place where the bargaining table is even.’

Also from CONSOL’s CEO:  Expect a coal resurgence at the end of this decade and US coking coal producers are in currently in trouble.  SNL.

Peabody proceeding cautiously in Australia due to lingering coal market weakness at SNL.  Emerging market thermal coal demand remains tepid.  Platts

ISA‘s interest in coal is for a potential thermal coal rebound, dependent upon natural gas supply declining.  Consider Southwestern Energy (SWN) having big Marcellus plans (and a chart which rivals AAPL) from Richard Zeits:

“a year and a half ago, Southwestern had zero production coming out of the Marcellus. At the end of last quarter, SWN had 166 MMcf/d of gross operated production from the area which the company expects to increase to over 300 MMcf/d already by the end of this year and to over 500 MMcf/d by the end of 2013. By 2017, SWN anticipates to be producing almost 800 MMcf/d out of the Marcellus.”

This natural gas growth and management saying “wells “work” in a sub-$3 natural gas price environment” makes calling for a natural gas production to decline difficult.  Natural gas at $3.50 mobilizes BHP (forex).  Looking forward, however, last week the rig count moved in the bulls direction (Haynesville Play).

Natural gas demand at power plants (EIA) has displaced about 100 million tones of coal production, most of which will not be returning to production.  If and when natural gas production falls coal could return robustly.

Seems Arch has not received the memo on CAPP coal:  SNL.  That big Kentucky coal deal is in jeopardy (Hindustan Times).

Meanwhile, 32% of 2011 wind capacity installed in the U.S. was wind.  Click on the thumbnail.  “The wind industry is setting wind production records virtually every month, and wind power increased 16% from January to June 2012.”  John Hanger

Many coal investors continue to gamble on a strong rebound in the weak company’s.  If beta and leverage are your game, consider calls on the strong players instead.  My essay.

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The post Coal Rally? appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

This week I had a number of essays published on Yahoo Finance via Seeking Alpha:

• Arch Coal: Walking Dead received violent and offensive emotional responses in the comments, the worst of which Seeking Alpha deleted.
• Waiting On Coal: Dynamics And Theory
• Peak Oil: Undulating Plateau Shaped By Price
• Commodity Market Overview and Opportunity
• Market Direction: Our Binary World

Re-post:  A billionaire’s bet on inflation – Frank Giustra interview at Mining.  The interview was clear and succinct.

Much more for Independent Stock Analysis members tomorrow.

The post Housekeeping appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Recession talk exists (Ritholtz) and OECD predicts weak growth in Canada, G7 partners for rest of year (Globe and Mail).  Yet the U.S. economy has been a relative winner among the Western world.

The Independent Stock Analysis thesis continues to be precious metals over materials and base metals.  Western world money printing (Reuters) is primarily gold and silver positive, with oil another beneficiary.  Base metal and material prices need China growth to re-accelerate on meaningful fiscal stimulus, something unlikely in the near term (Marketwatch).

Doug Kass startled me saying “It now appears that China’s third-quarter real GDP growth might be 6.5% or lower.” (The Street).  Become accustomed to headlines like this: Low demand from China dampening Asian coking coal outlook in short term: UBS at Platts.

Meanwhile, Gold is Quietly Breaking Out:  All Star Charts.  Gold Glitters in September at Bespoke.

The $HUI and GDX are approaching their 200 day moving averages.  Perhaps some digestion occurs next week on the charts.  ISA has been covering the precious metals ad nauseum on our gold page.

The royalty stocks are fundamentally superior.  With FNV and RGLD having stretched valuations my current favorite is Silver Wheaton.  SLW presents this afternoon.  An alternative view on silver:  chart.  Silver breakout from Daily Wealth:

Is this fundamental analysis something you enjoy?  Visit the Independent Stock Analysis home page.  Better yet, become a member today!  For $100 a year you can follow along JJ Butler’s market thoughts.  ISA continually notes developments in the oil and energy markets and has been examining the depressed coal market fundamentals while patiently waiting for opportunity.  Put an Independent Stock Analysis membership in your investment toolkit.

The post Divergent Metals appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Answer:  Today’s dynamics are especially interesting.  Valuations are compressing as the secular bear market marches forward.  Vast numbers of people are finding a better life in emerging countries, while the debt laden developed world is going to choose debasement or default.

Question:  Seems the developing world is seeing a slowdown in the rate of growth…

Answer:  Significantly.  The investor can best act on the industrialization of China theme by Invest in What China Needs to Buy: Don Coxe (Energy Report).

However, Independent Stock Analysis has been chronicling the Chinese slowdown.  Iron ore hits lowest in nearly 3 years; miners’ shares tumble at Reuters.  The ever-increasing hunger for steel at FT Alphaville.  Copper Demand in China Seen Growing at Slowest Pace in 15 Years at Bloomberg.

Waiting for Chinese economic growth to re-accelerate may be the correct investment action.  Jim Roger description:  “”All these guys are delaying or suspending or cancelling new supply which is bullish.”  Mineweb

Question:  Energy seems to be of particular interest at ISA?

Answer:  Energy is the world’s largest industry and has seen an incredible transformation over the past decade.  Conventional oil production peaked in 2005.  The new higher price deck spawned the unconventional oil revolution.

With today’s robust oil prices the producers can slightly increase world oil production, yet the high pricing is required.  Moreover, oil demand is spurred with lower prices and while higher prices causes growth problems.

Current inventory levels are flush, but more importantly spare capacity is quite tight.  Oil market commentators and analysts all seem to be calling for violent oil prices; think Iran, the Straight of Hormuz and such.  Consider the idea of tame range-bound robust oil pricing:  OPEC and economics will prevent Raymond James $65 oil call, while the upside will be capped by the economics of demand destruction, efficiency gains and reinvested profits.  The play by play is on my oil page.

Meanwhile natural gas prices may rise after a tumultuous fall shoulder season, but otherwise NG is searching out it’s own price regime, only with low prices.

Coal, meanwhile, may be the speculative opportunity if natural gas prices rise from depressed levels.  Natural gas prices have crushed the coal sector.  On ISA I have undertaken a study of the industry, so when the time is right we can pounce on the right investments.  Many a stock junkie has been much too early on coal because they underestimated the natural gas revolution.  The winners in a cyclical coal rebound do not look to be the usual suspects.  Follow along on my coal page.  Perhaps a big score is possible.

Question:  Is investment opportunity immediately present?

Typically the first commodity sector to respond to policy maker stimulus is the precious metals.  Be sure to see the ISA gold page for more.  I recently published a brief essay on Silver Wheaton.

I work very hard to make Independent Stock Analysis a productive tool for thoughtful investors.  Readers will not see their time hijacked.  Neither am I here to tell investors what to do; I am just sharing different viewpoints of what is occurring on the investment landscape.

Independent Stock Analysis is appropriately priced, thorough and timely.  The format consists of organized links to the theme of each post.

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The post Commodity Overview appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

“A rig producing, on an energy basis, 50 percent natural gas, 20 percent natural gas liquids and 30 percent oil, can still be considered an oil well if that is the major revenue driver, Baker Hughes said.”  Thus natural gas production has stubbornly refused to fall in spite of the falling rig count.  Reuters

From Gas Production Crests Ahead of the Storm at RBN Energy:

• “Bentek reported that last week’s average US gas production was 64.5 Bcf/d – close to the all time high of 64.7 Bcf/d set in November 2011.”  Further, “Bentek reports another 0.5 Bcf/d of Marcellus production will be brought online in September after gathering line expansions are completed.”
• “Natural gas demand did pick up in 2012 – in particular the roughly 4.8 Bcf/d of increased power burn as gas prices fell below coal encouraging coal to gas generation switching.”  The natty over supply is huge.
• “Seasonal power burn increases will likely taper off in September as temperatures fall and peak generation declines.”  With natural gas at $2.63, expect coal fired generation to be shut down, not natural gas.
• Conclusion:  Shoulder season for natural gas pricing and the coal stocks will be more difficult to navigate than most expect.

I know many coal stock investors like to blame President Obama for their stock price woes.  But right now gas, not politics, is coal’s problem.  Intermediate and long term coal plant retirements, however, may be determined by the election.  “A Romney win could imply that the appeal and some of the proposed regulations would be dropped or eased, which could slow retirements. An Obama re-election probably means the court fight continues, possibly more stringent regulations to follow and coal retirements to resume their projected pace.”  SNL

Existing U.S. Coal Plants at Sourcewatch.  Water and power supply:  Mining.

Big Coal Faces Steel Slowdown Amid Shale-Gas Pain: Commodities at Bloomberg.

Are you interested in this continual analysis?  Then become an Independent Stock Analysis member today!  Not sure?  Visit the ISA coal or home page.  You may subscribe to the occasional free post by email or reader.

The post Still Waiting on Coal appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

More than three-fourths of Gulf oil production shut down at Fuel Fix.  Isaac’s latest path at Business Insider.

Yesterday oil fell when chatter began on a SPR release (Business Week).  Commercial crude invetory levels are extremely flush; refined product inventory levels are light.  Thus the whole thing is a joke…

Peak cheap oil is an incontrovertible fact at The Telegraph.

“Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight.

Projected natural gas prices depend on shale gas resource economics at EIA.  Experts Say US LNG Export Volumes Could be Limited at AOL Energy.

Video:  Rick Rule on oil markets and printing:  CNBC.

Every morning Independent Stock Analysis sorts out the crude oil news and commentary and brings it to readers.  Here is the oil page.  Currently ISA is investigating the coal sector, which is depressed on the natural gas glut.  Become a member today!

The post Flush Inventory & Tight Supply appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Double top possibility via Chartstore.  “A market summary… In Pictures“  at See It Market.

Jackson Hole May Disappoint Investors Primed for Stimulus at Bloomberg.

“Oil down on rumer of SPR release. Remember IEA said last wk. that’s not interested in getting involved in US election games” Fil Zucchi at Stocktwits.

That’s it.  My shortest post ever.

The post Market Charts – a quick look appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Gold future traders examined at Zeal.  Gold gets some press at Bloomberg and WSJ.  Negative real interest rate policy thoughts by Eric Sprott.

The big news yesterday was one political party forming a ‘gold commission’.  Be assured they are as serious about a gold standard as the other party is about bring troops home.  But it is still quite gold positive (CNBC).  The 10 Countries With The Biggest Gold Reserves In The World at Business Insider.

Excellent analysis of gold vs stocks:  Gold Seek.  The gold bull market against stocks may be about half over in an unclear chart.  The two year chart shows the long consolidation.

An outstanding piece on silver:  Herbert Moolman.

When you hear the politicians debating 10 year budgets, remember they know nothing.  The 10 year budget from 2002 was off in debt held by the public as 2 is to 11.  In trillions.  (Bruce Krasting)  And yes, that is fundamental to the gold bull thesis.

Not gold related:  Independent Stock Analysis is number one in industrial goods at Stocktwits, straight across from some guy named Jim Cramer.

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The post Gold Breakout appeared first on Independent Stock Analysis.

Thank you, the website works and is fantastic!

Question- I like so much this Aggregating site, I was wondering if others exist on say Oil, Natural Gas, even Commodities? Though, I clearly understand that Nat Gas is showcased here as Coal are closely linked.

Thank you in advance,

Paul

The ideas put forth on Independent Stock Analysis are what I find interesting and worthwhile.  See that Nextel stock certificate in the upper right corner?  Ticker NXTL promoted me from piker.  As it happens, the commodity complex has been my chief interest for many years.

With the valuation compressing secular bear market ongoing, the commodity complex continues to command my attention.  Structural emerging market demand meeting a finite world has provided many opportunities.  Add in money printing gone mad and hard assets increase in appeal.

Prior to this June, I have never had any interest in coal.  The valuations were high while governments and greens hate coal.  As an oil & gas investor, however, I began to pay attention as the natural gas glut crushed the coal sector.  Thus the continuing coal posts to educate us to the opportunity.

Paul noted the large portion of what is found here is aggregated from other sites.  The internet is fantastic resource for finding information.  But there is so much misinformation, worthless opinion and general sludge.  I have been wading through it myself for years.  One principle value ISA provides to readers is being a simple productivity tool.  Perhaps we will make some money along the way.

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Crude and product inventory charts courtesy of BMO and Investor Village.

Saudi Arabia is pumping at record levels but risks to crude supply disruptions remain at Sober Look.

The oil shale boom and oil imports:  Mark Perry.  I’ll suggest the oil and shale gas revolution does not receive enough credit for keeping the US economy afloat.

The history of US SPR releases:  Ritholtz.

Shell plans at least $1 billion a year China shale gas investment at Reuters.  The $1 billion sounds like a lot; consider it a start.

A huge infograph on shale gas:  Visual Capitalist.  The vast untapped shale gas basis is hard to comprehend (RBN Energy).

Crude Oil and Bonds:  Dragonfly.

Great charts from Daily Wealth:

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The potential rebound in the US thermal coal markets would be a strong cyclical rise.  Consider:

• The evolution of the U.S. power sector, in one chart at Washington Post.
• Coal fired plant retirements (EIA)
• “American’s demand for electricity will grow at a sluggish pace over the next two decades, as economic fallout from the Great Recession takes a toll on the nation’s power industry” at Fuel Fix.

Yet the world coal industry is becoming more integrated.  Though currently in its own slowdown, the super-cycle is ginormous:

“Every modern, industrial society in history has gone through a 20-year period “where there was extremely large investment in the power sector, and electricity made the transition from a privilege of an urban elite to something every family would have,” Varro said. “India is right now just at that jump point…India will have to build roughly as much power generation in the next 25 years as the U.S. has today” at Washington Post.

“Coal is making an unexpected comeback in Europe this year” (Petroleum Economist).  But don’t get to excited, as EUROPE COAL: Spot market trades stable on comfortable supply at Platts.

I continue to giggle over candidates Obama and Romney trying to win the hearts of coal country:  Bloomberg and Gateway.

ISA expects to have continuing coal market commentary (coal and home pages).  Many individual names still must be examined, with the strong expected to take from the weak.  Several actively traded names are serious bankruptcy candidates.  Coking coal does not look to bail out certian coal names as many expect.  The rails still need to be examined as derivative plays.

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