As India takes steps to increase edible oil production, sustainable practices such as controlling deforestation while boosting palm oil production will help it meet its Paris Climate Agreement pledges

Harvested oil palm fruits at a plantation in southern India (Photo by Alamy)

The edible oil industry is poised for a transformation in India. The Indian government wants to increase the production of edible oils in line with its approach of aatmanirbharta (self-reliance). India is the largest importer of palm oil in the world; increasing domestic production will reduce its dependence on imports.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stressed on the edible oil sector on several occasions. In February, he noted that India imports edible oil worth around INR 650 billion (USD 8.93 billion) every year.

“It can be stopped,” he had said at a meeting of Niti Aayog, the government’s think tank. “This money can go into the accounts of farmers. For this, we will have to formulate plans. There are many agricultural products that farmers can produce not only for the country but the world. For this, it is essential that all states formulate their strategy for agro-climatic regional planning and help farmers accordingly.”

This approach provides an opportunity for sustainable palm oil production in India. Sustainability should be embedded from the very beginning of the production line in the new plantations as per agro-climatic regional planning.

The existing oil palm plantations that have been in India for over 20-30 years also must make an effort to improve their sustainable agriculture practices. All plantations need to adopt best practices recommended by the Indian Institute of Oil Palm Research and adopt sustainability standards like the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) that focuses on environmental and social aspects like impact on water tables, farmers’ welfare and market connectivity.

Sustainable practices

RSPO certification is an important step in the move towards making sustainable palm oil production the norm. The certification standard has strict criteria including no deforestation, no use of fire, no destruction of endangered species’ habitats, no new planting on peat and no exploitation.

RSPO principles and criteria include third party certification, a system of accreditation for certification bodies, supply chain certification to the end user, traceability provided via the PalmTrace system, and an open and transparent grievance mechanism.

These mandatory requirements are in place to protect primary and secondary forests, and to ensure the habitats of wildlife are not harmed, thus creating a space where palm oil agriculture and the environment can co-exist.

RSPO has already begun its work in India. Two private mills and one state government mill in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have been trained in RSPO Independent Smallholder Standard (RISS). A training programme for oil palm farmers has been initiated keeping in mind state laws and local environmental and social realities.

The development of the overall process of the smallholder standard has been guided by the need to strike a balance between promoting greater inclusion of smallholders and ensuring that core sustainability requirements are upheld.

Through a simplified approach to certification, RISS presents an easy entry for smallholders into the RSPO certification system through a phased process of reaching and verifying compliance.

Some 50,000-60,000 farmers in India depend on oil palm for their livelihood. RSPO wants to support more farmers to become certified in order to produce more oil using less land, to improve livelihoods and reduce the risk of land conversion, which threatens forest and biodiversity.

Support for smallholder farmers

In addition to learning the best management practices, smallholders who are certified to produce sustainable palm oil gain improved access to markets. In an effort to support and encourage smallholders to achieve certification, RSPO provides funding to smallholders through its Smallholder Support Fund.

Besides the production of sustainable palm oil, RSPO also offers alternatives for the market to support the production of certified sustainable palm oil (CSPO). As an independent smallholder, trading in RSPO credits provides direct access to the sustainable palm oil market through the online PalmTrace platform.

More widespread use of sustainability standards and tools would benefit all stakeholders. Some consumer goods firms, mills and refiners are already supportive of CSPO made in India.

“We have a responsibility to ensure that raw materials are being sourced sustainably. We need to build awareness within our value chains for the demand of sustainable palm oil,” said Bhawna Yadav, regional social and human rights manager (South Asia and ASEAN) at Reckitt Benckiser (maker of Dettol products). “To do this we need to engage more with palm oil sourcing colleagues in procurement and finance, as they play a critical part in getting consensus from within the company to create the demand for sustainable palm oil. It is not just about responsible sourcing and production, but also about responsible consumption.”

Ubiquitous palm oil

According to the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), more than 50% of products we use everyday have palm oil or its derivatives and fractions.

India’s agriculture ministry has recently proposed a budget of INR 190 billion (USD 2.61 billion) for the national mission on edible oil. The mission entails a five-year plan aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in production of cooking oil while cutting down on imports. Local production may also ease the prices of cooking oil.

“We import around 15 million tonnes of cooking oil, which caters to 70% of our annual requirement of 23 million tonnes,” a ministry official said. “In the next five years, we are aiming at zero import, which will not only help the domestic oil industry but also ensure availability of cooking oil to consumers at economical cost.” 

There is now a window for India palm oil to become more sustainable, with consensus at different levels, from farmers to refiners, buyers, retailers and consumers. Sustainable palm oil is necessary. It’s not just a “good to have” option, but should be embedded into our production and consumption patterns, making India a global leader in sustainability practices. It will also help us meeting our 2015 Paris climate agreement targets.

Kamal Prakash Seth is Country Head – India and Deputy Director – Market Transformation, Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil.

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India proposes to open 52 new coal mines of at least one million tonne capacity each, which could increase the country’s methane emissions alone by 45 million tonnes in 20 years

Coal mining is set to increase in India (Photo by Joerg Boethling / Alamy)

India’s push for ramping up coal production would lead to an increase in the country’s methane emissions, the second biggest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, a latest study has revealed. With this increase in methane emissions, climate change and its impacts in India could be further aggravated.

A new study by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a nonprofit research organisation, coal mines currently under development across the world would leak 1,135 Mt (Million Tonnes) of annual carbon dioxide equivalent on a 20-year horizon. The countries with the highest amount of methane emissions from proposed coal mines are China (572 Mt), Australia (233 Mt), Russia (125 Mt), India (45 Mt), South Africa (34 Mt), the U.S. (28 Mt), and Canada (17 Mt).

The report said that the proposed coal mines in China, United States, Turkey, Poland, and Uzbekistan could emit 40–50 percent of their greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane, making them among the gassiest proposed coal mines in the world.

According to the study, methane is the second biggest contributor to global warming after CO2, with a shorter atmospheric lifetime, but much stronger potency and warming potential. During mining, fractured coal seams and surrounding strata emit methane into the atmosphere. For India, methane emissions from 52 proposed mines are expected to be 45 Mt of CO2 equivalent.

Ryan Driskell Tate, a research analyst at Global Energy Monitor and author of the study, said: “Coal mine methane has dodged scrutiny for years even though there’s clear evidence it poses a significant climate impact. If new coal mines proceed as planned, without mitigation measures in place, then a major source of greenhouse gas will go unrestrained.”

On India’s proposed coal mines, Tate said India has 52 proposed mines that are each at least one million tonne capacity or larger while adding that the total proposed capacity for those 52 new mines is 376 Mt per annum.

More from burning coal

“If those operations go into production as planned, their methane leaks alone will total 45 Mt of CO2 equivalent annually, on a 20-year horizon, and that’s not including emissions from the actual combustion of coal,” he told Mongabay-India.

He, however, clarified there are smaller mines that have been proposed that are not included in that tally. Thus, if those mines are also included in the tally the amount of methane emission calculated could be higher.

He explained that, in 2019, India’s energy-related CO2 emissions reached 2.62 billion tonnes and noted: “methane leaks from new mines alone would represent a 1.7 percent increase in energy-related CO2 emissions.” “But if you consider the climate impact of those methane emissions and the actual combustion of coal, the new mines could increase current energy-related CO2 emissions by 23 percent, unless emissions are offset elsewhere.”

For this study, the GEM surveyed 432 proposed coal mines globally and modelled methane emission estimates at the individual mine level. It said that unless mitigated, methane emissions from these proposed mines would amount to 13.5 million tonnes (Mt) of methane annually, a 30 percent increase over current methane emissions.

Tate emphasised that “all coal-producing countries need to improve the monitoring of mine-by-mine methane levels and should make that information public.”

In 2018, the Community Emissions Data System estimated global coal mine methane emissions to be 55 Mt.

But Chandra Bhushan, who is president and chief executive officer (CEO) of the International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology (iForest), a think-tank working on environmental and sustainability issues, explained that methane emissions from coal mines is not as large as methane plumes from oil and gas wells.

“In the oil and gas industry, methane emissions can go to several hundred million tonnes. It is a fundamental problem in that sector. Even satellite-based analysis has shown that methane emissions from the oil and gas sector are huge. The methane emissions from the coal sector, if compared to the oil and gas sector, is not such a huge issue,” Bhushan told Mongabay-India.

In fact, he said, there are several attempts by countries to tap the coal-bed methane. “The methane from coal mines is lean methane (diluted) but there are attempts being made to capture rich methane (concentrated) from coal-bed directly through pipes. In India, it is being pursued at several places,” Bhushan said.

Methane mitigation

The report does not spell good news for India which has been targeting one billion tonnes of coal production to cut down imports. In 2020, the Indian government came out with a slew of reforms including commercial coal auctions and eased rules to encourage private coal miners.

However, the increase in coal mining is expected to usher a transition that is not going to be fair as it would threaten forests and forest dwellers. The problems faced by mining-affected communities including pollution, health-related issues and rehabilitation already highlight the harmful impact of unsustainable coal mining practices.

Experts note that the increase in coal mining is not in conformity with India’s climate goals. The increase in coal mining would lead to an increase in methane emissions as well as carbon dioxide emissions, once the mined coal is used for energy purposes.

In 2015, just before the Paris Climate Agreement, India submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In those goals, India promised a reduction in the emissions intensity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 33 to 35 percent; achieving about 40 percent installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources; energy efficiency; and creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through additional forest and tree cover.

The GEM study said despite the climate impact of gassy mines and coal mine methane more generally, most of these proposed operations have received little public scrutiny or mitigation planning.

Tate explained that coal mines leak methane during operation and long after a mine has been abandoned and said: “The only way to reduce those leaks are through mitigation technologies, recovery and utilisation practices, or not mining. India, like all coal-producing countries, needs to plan for how to manage methane leaks from existing operations and abandoned mines.”

“With mines that are still proposed, and not yet in operation, methane mitigation needs to be on the agenda from the very beginning,” he told Mongabay-India.

The study, meanwhile, further said that globally, the state-owned enterprises remain the major sources of proposed coal mine methane, including China Coal, Shandong Energy, Coal India, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group.

Mayank Aggarwal is a New Delhi-based journalist.

This was first published in Mongabay India.

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Decentralised solar energy provides an opportunity to alleviate poverty in India by harnessing it for income-generating activities, Indian solar pioneer Harish Hande says in an interview

A village blacksmith using a solar-powered blower in Karnataka (Photo by Selco)

The journey of India’s solar sector has seen many success stories, and along with them, it has brought to the fore some remarkable people who have made this possible through their persistent endeavour.

One of the first names synonymous with this journey is that of Harish Hande. A graduate from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, and with postgraduate and doctoral degrees from University of Massachusetts, US, Hande co-founded Selco in 1994-95.

He took this initiative after he saw how beneficial solar energy had been in the rural areas of the Dominican Republic and Sri Lanka. Since its launch, Selco has touched the lives of over 500,000 households across six states in India.

Recognised as a pioneer in rural energy, Hande has received several awards including the Magsaysay award in 2011, the Zayed Future Energy Prize in 2018 and the Skoll Award for Social Entrepreneurship in 2018.

In an interview, Hande stressed on the need to focus on the demand for power, rather than merely considering supply. He also believes that innovations in sustainable energy can help alleviate poverty in India. Excerpts:

What is the state of solar energy in India now? Compared to when this movement began, do you feel we have made considerable progress?

In terms of awareness, we have come a long way for sure. In the late 80s and early 90s, people would wonder as to how a solar panel generates electricity and whether it was a magic show. Also, solar was linked to just lighting — streetlights and lanterns. Now, solar can provide any sort of load, whether it is a small house in a slum or a large country.

The beauty of solar is that it can generate electricity where it is needed. That is where decentralisation of solar helps.

You have said that we need to focus on demand and not supply. Please explain.

Currently, we emphasise on the supply side and not demand. Instead, we need to understand as to how many MWs of solar or how much fossil fuel is needed and what should be the type of solution, but we should come from the demand side.

We need to think why a person demands electricity. When it comes to power, it is always talked about from a supply side — how many MWs of coal fired plants must be set up, how many MWs of solar must be put — and never from the demand side. Considering demand is important as it pushes efficiency. For instance, if it is needed for a sewing machine, how efficient is the machine. Then you decide on what is the electricity you need, rather than saying I will supply what I want, you decide what you are going to use it for.

Once you look at solar power from the demand side, it pushes efficient utilisation. That is the whole beauty of looking at decentralisation of solar power.

While there has been considerable progress of decentralised renewable energy as a concept in India, do you believe there is scope for improvement?

I think this is where the awareness needs to come in because people feel the grid has its own value and its own model. During those periods of time when generation of electricity could not have been done in every place, as there were coal mines in the eastern part of India, thermal plants had to be built accordingly so that the cost of transporting coal would be reduced and then the transmission lines could be put up.

As the transportation system became more efficient, it was possible to build plants. Still, it was linked to the supply of raw material and therefore, the grid made sense.

Harish Hande, chief executive officer, Selco Foundation (Photo by Selco)

Now, the fuel source is decentralised, the sun is decentralised, so why not use it to design a system in a similar manner? It is a question of a change in the thought process, changing the belief that the grid is king and more awareness. If we see developed countries like Germany and the United States, they are going towards decentralisation. For instance, if we consider a modified rooftop model in the US, it is decentralised. So, it is essentially a question of awareness and thought process.

You have spoken about how poverty can be reduced through innovations in sustainable energy. How could this be made possible?

To eradicate poverty, we need to look at quality of life and increased incomes. In many cases, increased income depends on decentralised businesses; whether we are talking about a local food processing or snack-making entrepreneur, a blacksmith or a motorcycle repair shop, they suffer from two things.

One is technology that can help them modernise their income. The other is the regular input of energy to run equipment, whether it is a roti-roller machine or a sewing machine.

When we look at decentralised energy, there is a push towards efficiency because the more we install solar, the more it may become more expensive for the poor. So, the question that arises is, how do we make a sewing machine more efficient? Therefore, the combination of efficiency and solar power leads to increasing the incomes of the poor.

If we look at it from a supply side, we only talk about the supply of electricity, but we do not question for what. There is a need for energy because one needs to, for instance, run a sewing machine for a few hours. So the question is, how many hours is it needed for?

When we buy a TV set, we do not buy the remote separately, it comes with the set. Similarly, when a person buys a sewing machine, the solar panel comes with it. When she buys a blacksmith blower, it is equipped with a solar panel.

Therefore, it is all about how we institutionalise solar in a way that it becomes a part of the package itself. To scale it up, one would need to go to NABARD (a financing agency) and check on the finance facility for an income-generating activity for the poor.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s solar energy output is going to match coal-fired power by 2040. Do you think this is possible?

We understand that there are larger needs of the country. I might come from the sustainability industry, but we also need to consider practicalities in a country like ours. Therefore, we need to look at the number of houses and people dependent on solar power, rather than what the supply of energy is from solar.

The moment we talk about how many people use solar, we also need to consider factors such as their primary source of power and what is required to create awareness. Moreover, finance plays a decisive role in this matter. The desire to switch to solar being a case in point.

Take the example of solar water heaters. In 1997-98, there were hardly two or three manufacturers of water heaters in Bangalore. When the finance ministry pushed refinancing at 5% rate of interest and it was stated that banks would finance solar water heating at 5%, within a year, 25 water heater manufacturers came up.

In the next four to five years, the government of Karnataka made the installation of solar water heaters mandatory if an individual wanted to buy a house. If we look at the bottom 40% of the population, I think 2040 is not required; between 2030 and 2035, we should be able to look at these households using solar.

In India, there have been a lot of policies promoting renewable energy. What are the initiatives that could help improve the solar energy sector in the country?

The biggest challenge we face is a disconnect between the grassroot organisations that are good in implementation and the policy think tanks in Delhi. The issue is, if I need to know rural Bihar or rural Karnataka, it is not just the language, that there is a need to speak Kannada or Bhojpuri—-the farmer should be able to converse with the visiting official as if she is another farmer.

What happens most of the time is that an official or a team of officials comes and does a survey at a hierarchy. The attitude is: “I know it, you tell me the answers to the questions I ask.” The official has the approach that she knows better and that is a huge disconnect.

Good policies happen only through dialogue and unfortunately, dialogue happens at the Delhi level, but not between the end user and the policy. It is all about how we communicate; it is not just about policy. Even if there is a brilliant policy, how does it get communicated? How does it reach the person it is meant for? It is the thinking that needs to change, for that is where the issue is.

We are a country of problems. It also means we are a country of solutions. How do we make India a country that is a powerhouse of solutions. If you really want to compete with a country like China, stop competing on the basis of trade.

Our attitude should be such that someone from Ethiopia comes to India with the belief that he will find a solution in India. That is what we need to aim at.

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There is a compelling case to catalyse decarbonising transportation in India, which can be achieved by deploying clean-powered electric vehicle charging stations

Electric vehicle charging needs clean solutions (Photo by Alamy)

India has laid out ambitious vehicle electrification plans through the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020, and Phase II of the FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles) scheme. This comes at an opportune time when transport-related air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in major Indian cities are regularly hovering above dangerous levels.

Currently the transport sector accounts for nearly 23% of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and this is set to rise in light of the rapid rate of urbanisation and growing prosperity across countries. In the past decade alone, India has seen a tremendous rise in vehicle usage, resulting in a sharp increase in city level air pollution. India is home to six of the top 10 most polluted cities in the world.

Following the roll out of the national mission, several Indian states and businesses proactively responded with rolling out state electric vehicle (EV) policies and programmes and announcement of corporate clean mobility ambitions.

However, converting India’s existing vehicle fleet to electric will add terawatt-hours of new demand to the grid and requires thoughtful and timely planning to minimise costs and maximise benefits, primarily for the electric utilities and electricity distribution companies known as discoms. This key pillar currently finds limited discourse across forums.

As per a joint study by business lobby Assocham and consultancy EY, overall electricity demand from electric vehicles in India is projected to reach 69.6 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. The existing power distribution infrastructure in the country allows for meeting most of this demand through the grid, more than half of which is fed by coal-fired power plants.

This could increase the overall transport-related emissions in the country, thereby defeating the purpose of the country’s electric mobility mission.

Clean electric mobility

This makes a compelling case for both businesses and governments to catalyse decarbonising transport in the country. It could be achieved by deploying clean-powered EV charging stations and having in place a robust EV power management interface.

A more efficient and cost-effective energy system will bring monetary benefits to the discoms. There is a need for better load management at the distribution transformer (DT) level for discoms to minimise losses and have better clarity on load profiles.

In 2019, BSES Rajdhani Power Ltd, a Delhi-based private Discom, in a representation to Central Electricity Authority (CEA), stated that DTs are loaded to 70-80% of their capacity for 5% of the time. It requested CEA to allow dynamic throttling of chargers to avoid DT overload.

A white paper by India Smart Grid Forum published in 2018 stressed the inability of existing DTs to accommodate DC Fast Charging capacity without costly grid upgrades that will be passed on to the Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) establishments.

Smart and managed EV charging can address these issues and be a useful means to better align and balance a power supply that is increasingly diverse, decentralised, renewable and intermittent with flexible demand.

Expressing views on this, Abhishek Ranjan, AVP System Operation & Head RE and DSM, BSES Rajdhani Power Limited, commented, “Electric vehicles offer an opportunity to the power discoms in India for alleviating some of their pain points including DER (distributed energy resources) and RE (renewable energy) integration, power purchase cost optimisation and network optimisation, thereby boosting technical loss management. Managed charging coupled with EV TOU (time of use) rates shall help achieve above objectives in an effective manner.”

Renewable energy powered charging

Uncontrolled charging of EVs could increase the peak demand on the grid. This could result in overloading of DTs thus calling for infrastructure augmentation at the distribution level. Renewable energy powered EV charging stations or facilities like net metering or power banking could help mitigate this challenge by absorbing some of the peak or off-peak demand.

Integration with renewable energy offers dual benefits: Achieving financial viability and greening the entire EV usage cycle to a large extent. Installing rooftop solar plants at charging stations in Nagpur reduced the average electricity expense by 28%, according to a Shakti Foundation-TERI report.

EV owners will see savings ranging from lower cost of electricity to earnings from supply of ancillary services to the grid.

Wholesale markets and transmission and distribution grid operators will have another tool to meet demand and improve efficiency.

A significant amount of off-peak capacity will absorb excess renewable energy production, thereby reducing overall emissions.

A discom readiness study by Rocky Mountain Institute India in 2019 has brought to focus the existing charging infrastructure in the county with a state level readiness example from Haryana.

The report has highlighted the need for discoms to step up and prepare early through smart and proactive demand management as planning ahead for a variety of deployment scenarios can better address a wide range of internal and external challenges.

Recognising the value of decarbonising charging, governments globally are deploying innovative models to efficiently tackle this emerging challenge. Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), a group of more than 700 utilities in the US, is bringing together discoms, solution providers, regulatory bodies and NGOs to advance a clean and modern electricity grid.

Emerging policy signals

Enabling policies are key for innovations to flourish, and at the desired scale. Most of the Indian states today either have a state-wide EV policy or specific city level programmes and pilots running on EVs.

In the recent and more ambitious Delhi Electric Vehicles Policy, 2020, energy and public charging station operators are encouraged to explore renewable sources of power and facilities such as open access and power banking.

The state government of Telangana also notified a policy to promote the usage of EVs in August 2020. Though most of these policies are supportive of the transition, a stronger alignment and collaboration among policymakers, businesses and other ecosystem players will be critical to accelerate the adoption and build consumer confidence.

In the backdrop of recent developments, the time is right to build on the momentum and bring together businesses, government and other players to propel an e-mobility transition that is clean, just and economic.

Rana Pujari is programme officer, South Asia, Climate Group

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India needs to adopt a coordinated strategy when it comes to climate diplomacy so that financial and technological resources are prioritised and reallocated

India is moving towards a multi-pronged climate strategy (Photo by Soumya Sarkar)

India has stepped up its climate action commitments since 2015, especially in light of the growing number of declarations of net-zero emissions targets by various countries, including China. Although India has not yet adopted any such target, it will not be a surprise if the government chooses to do so in the run up to the United Nations climate summit scheduled to be held in Glasgow in November.

Many major emerging economies, developing countries and even least developed countries (LDCs), including China, South Africa, the Maldives and Nepal, have declared net-zero emissions targets, although not all are legally binding.

India is still weighing its options, keeping in view the perceptions and interests of a myriad of domestic constituencies that influence its climate diplomacy.

After a long hiatus due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Glasgow summit is expected to bolster countries’ long-term targets. However, it is important for the international community to note that these targets cannot come at the cost of short and medium-term targets, which are crucial for sustaining the momentum in climate action globally.

Structural and institutional changes

India has introduced structural and institutional changes to spur clean energy goals domestically, but its climate diplomacy approaches have to be intertwined with the urgent need to tackle the country’s worsening climate vulnerabilities in the short and medium terms.

In my book, Climate Diplomacy and Emerging Economies: India as a Case Study, I explore the role of the emerging economies – the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) – in the international climate order, during 2009-2019.

It analyses the shifts in India’s climate diplomacy in particular, by looking into its framing of climate change and the use of certain narratives based on ideas of equity, justice, sovereignty, opportunity, leadership, responsibility, and so on.

An analysis of India’s climate diplomacy during this period clearly shows that from a mere preoccupation with ethical and socio-economic concerns of historical responsibility of the developed countries, equity, climate justice, vulnerability, poverty eradication, and development, India’s climate diplomacy positions have evolved to assume far greater relevance for its geopolitical and foreign policy strategy.

Evolving climate stance

In fact, India’s position in the international climate order has evolved from being (unfairly) called a naysayer to a responsible climate power, as seen by the rest of the international community. This transition was primarily influenced by shifts in its climate diplomacy positioning – increased multilateral, bilateral and informal exchanges on climate change cooperation – particularly since 2010.

The present government, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has also put climate diplomacy at the centre of its foreign policy agenda. India’s conceptualisation of the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), and their integration into the multilateral climate action agenda are a testimony to this shift.

Interestingly, the period 2015-19 was critical, in light of the Donald Trump administration’s disavowal of the Paris Agreement. With this development in particular, countries such as China and India launched themselves further to live up to their reputation of a responsible power, hinged on multilateralism and the rule of law.

With Joe Biden coming to power in the United States and his act of appointing John Kerry as the climate envoy, the global shift in climate action discourse is visible.

A billboard at the venue of the United Nations climate summit held in Madrid in 2019 (Photo by Soumya Sarkar)

Most recently, climate change has become an indispensable action item in the agenda of QUAD, involving Australia, India, Japan, and the US. At the 2020 G20 Summit too, Modi called for “an integrated, comprehensive and holistic way”.

What seems to strengthen India’s position is the fact that it is the only G20 country whose “fair share” climate mitigation targets and subsequent actions are compatible with the goal of limiting the temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.

Domestic compulsions

India’s climate goals are tied to its energy commitments. Hence, its climate diplomacy is also largely based on the co-benefits approach of tackling both energy security and climate change.

Although the pandemic impeded the growth of the renewable energy sector in terms of deployment, there were some interventions by the government, such as maintaining must-run status to renewable (mainly solar and wind) energy despite a drop in electricity demand; entry of Coal India into solar manufacturing and value chain (to reduce dependence on Chinese equipment), and fresh incentives for made-in-India solar modules.

It also announced stimulus packages to distribution companies (discoms) that were most financially hit by the pandemic; and even conducted an auction for “the world’s largest renewables-plus-energy-storage capacity tender” by Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) to ensure grid stability and making it viable for the discoms to purchase renewable power.

Institutionally too, the government has appointed a high-level inter-ministerial Apex Committee for Implementation of Paris Agreement (AIPA). However, India has missed the deadline of submitting its new/updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which was on December 31, 2020.

It is yet to submit one (as of March 2021). Most other countries that have submitted have not raised their ambition (by declaring new targets), or in the worst case scenario, even lowered it.

Lately, India’s coal problem has come under the scanner, especially after UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged the Indian government to phase out coal, for not only mitigation purposes, but also battling worsening air pollution levels in the country (reflecting India’s co-benefits approach to climate action).

The message has not been received well by the domestic audience, for which international equity, and just transition (for those heavily dependent on the coal industry) cannot be compromised.

Nevertheless, India’s just transition strategy is in the making; and it will need to address gaping financial, political, institutional, social, and infrastructural loopholes in the energy sector.

Transformational shift  

India will ride on its achievements in the clean energy sector, including its commitment to enhancing its renewable energy capacity to 220 GW by 2022. However, as my book argues, India’s international positioning has largely overlooked its vulnerabilities, even though rhetorically these are highlighted from time to time.

It clearly needs to go beyond the rhetoric of its developing country status coupled with climate leadership; and equally focus on how to mainstream adaptation within development planning to address its own climate vulnerabilities, even in the short and medium terms.

Having been severely affected by climate change-exacerbated extreme weather conditions, resource stress, and other effects in the past couple of decades, the government needs to adopt a coordinated strategy even when it comes to climate diplomacy so that resources (financial, technological etc.) are prioritised and reallocated accordingly.

This coordinated strategy needs to break down a silo mentality and potentially even lead to the establishment of an exclusive nodal agency for dealing with climate change (and climate change only). This entity should better align India’s domestic requirements with international commitments, and should come under parliamentary oversight.

Just as Modi speaks at length about “behavioural change” as the best way to “fight climate change”, what India needs is a transformational shift in its climate diplomacy. Today climate diplomacy is no longer restricted to the realm of climate change negotiations (or the implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement).

Hence, it should not only cater to India’s image of a responsible power, but also be able to coordinate its various climate diplomacy initiatives with countries, regional and international institutions, and other actors in the international arena.

Dhanasree Jayaram is assistant professor, Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, and Co-coordinator, Centre for Climate Studies, at Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Karnataka. Views are personal

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India’s plans to transition to electric mobility require investments to the tune of USD 266 billion but significant barriers have to be overcome in adoption and financing

Electric vehicle penetration is expected to rise rapidly in India (Photo by Justin Kase / Alamy)

India’s clean mobility transition will require a cumulative capital investment of INR 19.7 trillion (USD 266 billion) in electric vehicles (EVs), charging infrastructure and batteries over the next decade, a new report has estimated.

The report — Mobilising Electric Vehicle Financing in India — says that the domestic market for financing EVs will be INR 3.7 trillion (USD 50 billion) by 2030, which is about 80% of the current size of India’s retail vehicle finance industry that is worth INR 4.5 trillion today.

India’s EV ecosystem has so far focused on overcoming adoption hurdles associated with technology cost, infrastructure availability and consumer behaviour, said the report by the government think tank Niti Aayog and US-based Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI).

Financing is the next critical barrier that needs to be addressed to accelerate India’s electric mobility transition, the report said.

“The need of the hour is to mobilise capital and finance towards EV assets and infrastructure,” said Amitabh Kant, CEO, NITI Aayog. “As we work towards accelerating the domestic adoption of EVs and push for globally competitive manufacturing of EVs and components like advance cell chemistry batteries, we need banks and other financiers to lower the cost and increase the flow of capital for electric vehicles.”

The EV ecosystem must design solutions to address barriers across policy, technology, economics and behaviour to support the adoption of EVs in India, the report said. Simultaneously, reengineering vehicle finance and mobilising public and private capital will be critical.

India consumers currently face several challenges, such as high interest rates, high insurance rates and low loan-to-value ratios. To address these challenges, the report has identified a toolkit of 10 solutions that financial institutions such as banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), as well as the industry and government can adopt in catalysing the required capital.

“Re-engineering vehicle finance and mobilising public and private capital will be critical to accelerating the deployment of the 50 million EVs that could be plying on India’s roads by 2030,” said Clay Stranger, senior principal at RMI. “These solutions represent high-leverage areas for interventions in finance, and we believe that many are relevant beyond India.”

Recommended toolkit

The suggested solutions include financial instruments such as priority-sector lending and interest-rate subvention. Others are related to creating better partnerships between equipment makers and financial institutions by providing product guarantees and warranties.

A developed and formal secondary market can improve the resale value of EVs and improve their bankability, the report said.

“The identified barriers within EV finance need to be tackled in structured manner with innovative financing models,” said Randheer Singh, senior specialist at NITI Aayog.

The report said investment in India’s transition to electric mobility has the potential to create significant economic, social, and environmental benefits for the country. As the economics of EVs continue to improve, new business models and financing instruments gain acceptance, and government programmes drive early adoption and promote domestic manufacturing, India’s EV market is poised for growth in the coming decade.

In the runup to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), India has been participating in the COP26 Zero Emission Vehicle Transition Council. The world’s largest and most progressive automotive markets are working together to accelerate the global transition to zero emission vehicles, in line with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The future size of India’s vehicle market is large and its plans for manufacturing and adoption of EVs and EV components are ambitious. It remains to be seen if the South Asian nation is able to meet its targets.

The post Electric vehicle financing in India to touch USD 50 billion by 2030 appeared first on India Climate Dialogue.

China’s first five-year plan since its 2060 carbon neutrality pledge last year fails to set an emissions ceiling, but draws back from economic growth at any cost

The opening session of the National People’s Congress in Beijing on 5 March (Photo by Carlos Garcia Rawlins / Alamy)

China last week released its 14th Five Year Plan (FYP), a top-level policy blueprint for the next five years that has been much anticipated since the country made its pledge in September last year to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

The plan, for 2021-2025, was released in draft form for approval at the annual session of China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC). Chinese media had expected a central place for carbon neutrality, but the 2060 goal was only mentioned once in the 148-page document. The climate-related targets for 2025 were also lower than expected.

Yet unlike the two previous FYPs the document does not set economic growth targets. Experts interviewed by China Dialogue welcomed this break from the growth-at-all-costs mentality, though they were disappointed that the plan only takes “baby steps” towards decarbonisation.

No growth target

China has been issuing FYPs since the 1950s. The policy targets laid down in these plans are considered the paramount indicators guiding China’s economic and social development over the following five years. Strict top-down appraisals make sure the various bodies that make up the country’s vast government apparatus meet the targets or face consequences. The draft FYP released on Friday is expected to be approved unchanged by the NPC on 11 March.

Uncertainties brought about by the ongoing pandemic and its economic impacts have overshadowed the drafting of the 14th  FYP. Ahead of this year’s NPC session, leading Chinese economists, including central banker Ma Jun, suggested that no numerical GDP growth targets should be set out in the plan. Such targets, they argued, perpetuate an unsustainable debt-driven model of growth. With local governments keen to demonstrate their enthusiasm, China overshot its annual growth targets in both the 12th and the 13th FYP periods up to 2019, before Covid-19 hit – this was often achieved through investment in big projects financed by loans.

The newly released draft reflects these concerns. Instead of setting annual GDP growth targets for the next five years, it lays out a new system of issuing “indicative economic growth targets” every year based on actual circumstances. For this year, GDP growth is expected to reach 6%, according to figures released at the NPC session.

Zhu Dajian, director of Tongji University’s Institute of Sustainable Development and Management, told China Dialogue that leaving out the economic growth target reflects China’s commitment to development that is both high quality and low carbon. “Six per cent for 2021 is a deliberately modest year-on-year target given last year’s poor economic performance,” he said. Due to Covid-19, China’s GDP only grew by 2.3% in 2020.

Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), considers the absence of growth targets “potentially good news for the environment,” as “it should give the government more flexibility to pursue other targets, and reduce the pressure to prop up GDP numbers at all costs.”

No definitive emissions trajectory

However, without GDP targets, it is difficult to assess the plan’s impact on China’s carbon emissions trajectory over the next five years, as its key climate targets are pegged to the performance of the Chinese economy.

Ahead of the release, climate experts had called for the inclusion of a carbon emissions cap. But the draft does not contain one. Instead, it continues with the approaches of previous FYPs in setting energy intensity and carbon intensity targets per unit of GDP. By 2025, according to the new FYP, China is to reduce energy intensity by 13.5% from 2020 levels, and carbon intensity by 18%. The country will also boost the share of non-fossil sources in its energy mix to “around 20%” by the end of the period.

CREA’s Myllyvirta calculates that, on average, China’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 1.7% each year during the 13^th FYP period (2016-2020). Despite low economic growth last year, emissions increased 1.5% year on year, approaching 10 billion tonnes in total. Assuming China’s GDP grows at an annual rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2025, carbon emissions will still rise by 1.1% each year.

Last year, researchers at Tsinghua University’s Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD), who modelled China’s roadmap to carbon neutrality by 2060, projected that China could achieve a carbon emissions peak of around 10.5 billion tonnes shortly before 2030. This relied upon annual economic growth slowing to 5.3% during the 14th FYP period and 4.8% during the 15^th FYP period, plus more aggressive carbon intensity cuts. Based on the results of this modelling, they recommended setting a carbon intensity reduction target of above 19%, and an energy intensity reduction target of 14% in the 14th FYP.

Since President Xi Jinping announced China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal at the UN General Assembly last year, many organisations and experts have called on the country to set more ambitious targets to achieve peak carbon around 2025 instead of 2030. A recent study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) argued that earlier peaking could be worth a net value of US$1 trillion in social and economic benefits for China.

But based on the targets in the 14th FYP, China has no plans to accelerate its actions on climate.

He Lifeng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, told reporters on Friday that the 14^th FYP targets were created to be “high-hanging fruit” – achievable, but only with effort. Yet many experts believe that the targets will not be difficult to meet as long as China continues its current pace of renewables deployment and energy transition.

Dr Yang Fuqiang, a research fellow at Peking University’s Research Institute for Energy, told China Dialogue that the plan’s two intensity targets are lower than expected. “It’s common for the government to set targets that leave a margin of error so that it can over-achieve rather than fail to meet them,” he said. But he argued that China should change this mentality and use more ambitious targets to drive higher-quality development: “If the bars are set too low, they have less power to motivate.”

Non-fossil sources of energy

As already outlined, the 14th FYP also contains a target for non-fossil fuels, which includes nuclear and hydropower, to make up around 20% of China’s energy mix by 2025. The figure currently stands at about 16%. But unlike the last FYP, the energy mix is no longer in the “binding targets” section. Instead, the 20% target was only included in the main text of the document. This difference may affect how the target is appraised by the central government. Binding targets are usually subject to more rigorous scrutiny.

Even though the plan does not contain an absolute carbon emissions cap, it does say that carbon intensity controls will be “supplemented” by controls on total emissions. Yang Fuqiang believes this wording reflects concerns surrounding the impact of the pandemic, and the disruption it has caused to the global economy. As such, rather than issuing emissions quotas in a top-down manner, an economy-wide carbon cap has been kept as a tentative option, inviting provinces to come up with bottom-up initiatives to control emissions.

Zou Ji, president of the Energy Foundation China, expressed concern about this in an interview with China Dialogue: “Carbon peaking is, in essence, about managing absolute total emissions. Without an absolute emissions target, how can we make sure that emissions go down?” He suggested that in the absence of a nationwide carbon cap, sectoral and provincial caps should be established.

Wang Jinnan, director of the Institute for Environmental Planning under the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, proposed that China should set up a “tiered” system for total carbon emissions over the next five years, with some regions and sectors hitting peak emissions sooner. He also said that a comprehensive nationwide carbon emissions monitoring, reporting and verification system should be established.

Many believe that China hasn’t needed coal power to meet its growing energy needs since the beginning of the 13th FYP period, but the 14th FYP still contains multiple references to the development of coal and other fossil fuel energy sources, albeit under the condition of “clean and efficient utilisation”. The plan places a heavy emphasis on protecting China’s energy security in the face of a global energy landscape undergoing “fundamental changes” – as such, maintaining domestic production is part of an overarching energy security strategy.

“It’s disappointing that China is placing such a large focus on continuing its reliance on coal – and oil and gas. The world is relying on its largest emitter to step up on climate change, yet we see little of such action in this plan,” said Swithin Lui of NewClimate Institute.

Li Shuo, senior policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, commented: “There’s still no end in sight for China’s coal plant construction boom… China won’t be back on the decarbonisation pathway until Beijing checks the coal construction boom and greens its Covid recovery.”

Some experts think China will include a coal consumption cap in its Special 14th FYP for Energy Development. Once the national-level FYP is passed by the NPC, special ministry-, sector- and province-level plans will be created in the coming months. The Special 13th FYP for Energy Development set a coal consumption cap of 4.1 billion tonnes and an energy consumption cap of 5 billion tonnes of coal equivalent (TCE) . ICCSD researchers at Tsinghua University have recommended an energy consumption cap of 5.5 billion TCE  for the 14^th FYP period.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020 coal provided 56.8% of the total energy consumed by China, an historic low. But Yang Fuqiang believes this figure could be brought down to below 50% in the 14^th FYP period, given how fast renewables are developing in China. To achieve this, he suggests the Special 14th FYP for Energy Development should include a lower share for coal (of below 50%) as a binding target.

Shi Yi is a senior researcher at China Dialogue.

This article was first published in chinadialogue, India Climate Dialogue’s partner site.

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Innovative funding for initiatives and applications of decentralised renewable energy will boost demand in India while generating livelihood options for a large number of people

Solar-powered irrigation has become popular in India in part because of a widely implemented central government scheme (Photo by CLEAN)

Renewable energy will continue to be an important part of India’s energy mix. The consistent rise of renewable energy applications and lower costs is a positive trend. But one of the biggest challenges facing the sector is the lack of available budgetary resources and investments from financial institutions.

To overcome this, the involvement, contribution and collaboration of the public and private sectors is vital.

A recent CLEAN report surveying financial institutions in India, including banks (public, private, small finance, regional and state cooperatives), microfinance and development finance institutions, non-banking financial companies and foundations found that enterprises providing renewable energy solutions to rural populations have gained the interest of the government and the private sector.

For instance, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has a draft policy framework for decentralised renewable energy (DRE) livelihood applications in rural areas. Although the final policy is yet to be notified, this development has been seen as a good sign by financial institutions who were already investing in such businesses and now have further incentive to continue to do so.

As the DRE sector in India continues to expand and contribute to various livelihood opportunities, it is important to continue to sensitise financial institutions and create awareness so that they are confident to continue lending to entrepreneurs and end-consumers in the sector. The report identified key areas that need improvement so as to boost the sector further.

Overcoming risks

One of the major risks highlighted by financial institutions was system non-performance. In addition, non-scalable models, loan defaults, lack of after-sales services, changes in government policies, inability to provide collateral, lack of formal lending history, seasonal and unpredictable income, and natural calamities were other areas of concern.

Most micro-finance institutions (MFIs) use risk assessment tools to base their loan offers on, and banks have in-house scorecards to capture demographic information, bureau footprint and cash flow analysis.

However, a standardised risk assessment framework and strategies for overcoming these risks would support growth and instil confidence among financiers in the sector.

The respondents also recommended improvement in after-sales services and operations and maintenance facilities. Enterprises need to present scalable business models to make the project worth financing.

In addition to that, lines of concessional credit, interest subvention, and guarantees by corporate producers can be add-ons in boosting the sector.

Expanding lending opportunities

While the demand for income-generating products is gaining momentum, this is still largely limited to locations where energy access is still an issue. A lot more needs to be done to facilitate a shift from traditional products to DRE products.

These new technologies have proven to contribute to an increase in income, as well as complement traditional products in some areas. The demand for higher valued DRE-powered agriculture and non-agriculture applications and products, especially pumps and mini-grids, has also gone up across India. This has helped in increasing employment and income.

Some MFIs have contributed to sensitising people by using strategic outreach mechanisms including distributing pamphlets, handouts, monthly magazines and getting civil society organizations involved as part of these campaigns.

Marketing tools like word of mouth, radio jingles, WhatsApp, leaflets and flyers, demo camps and loan fairs have also been used, along with training programmes organised for financiers on funding solar-based DRE solutions by the Bankers Institute of Rural Development.

However, there is still a strong lack of awareness about these applications, especially non-agriculture productive applications in rural areas. A concerted effort is required by all stakeholders in order to build awareness levels of bankers and other stakeholders.

While solar home systems (SHS), lighting solutions and water pumps are popular DRE products, other applications like  sewing machines, blacksmith blowers, micro-grids, BLDC (brush-less direct current) fans, water purifiers, water heaters, charkhas, bulk milk chillers, and cookstoves are also some of the products currently being financed by surveyed respondents.

There is also scope for e-rickshaws, charging stations with battery-swapping facilities, pottery wheels, roti rolling machines, aerators, cold storages, fencing, and refrigerators.

In addition, non-solar applications include biomass-fuelled plants, electric vehicles, and energy-efficient inverters. This suite of DRE applications that are gradually gaining traction is encouraging for financiers.

Developing innovative financial solutions

While many respondents said they had dedicated financial products in the form of debt, equity or revolving funds to support DRE applications and enterprises, most of these products were for solar home systems, solar lamps, and solar pumps.

SHS and lamps are low-value products and have been around for a while. Solar pumps, although high value, have gained popularity owing to the PM-KUSUM Yojna. For other products, there is still a need for financial support.

This can be made possible with outreach and information available on the benefits of such applications to businesses and end-users, to help financial institutions develop targeted products and innovative solutions to support enterprises and consumers.

Learning from how PM-KUSUM boosted sales for solar water pumps, similar schemes with government backing for other livelihood applications could go a long way in raising awareness and generating demand. In addition, many respondents said there is a need for alternative forms of funding or guarantee funds set up by the government to support high value products.

Nearly 44% of those surveyed stated that they were familiar with most DRE applications available in the market, and 46% said they knew about specific traditional products. About 10% said they were not aware of these applications but expressed interest in finding out more.

There is need for awareness programmes on a continuous basis both for the financiers as well as end-users to increase the demand of DRE applications, as well as meaningful engagement with different sector stakeholders to build a better understanding of new innovative products and applications, and new emerging opportunities.

Juhi Anand is associate (access to finance) at the Clean Energy Access Network (CLEAN), a non-profit industry body.

The post Better financing can boost livelihoods around renewables appeared first on India Climate Dialogue.

High heat and humidity will take an increasing toll in death and ill-health in India and other tropical countries unless global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius  

Millions of workers in India have no option but to work long hours under the hot summer sun (Photo by Reynold Sumayku / Alamy)

La Niña, a weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, usually heralds a cooler Indian summer. But that’s not going to happen this year, going by early summer temperature predictions by the India Meteorological Department. And perhaps never, as average temperatures rise across India in the wake of global warming.

Declaring the onset of summer, the Met department said in its seasonal outlook from March to May that maximum temperatures will be above normal in most parts of northern India and the southern peninsula.

“Currently,  moderate  La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and sea surface temperatures are below normal over the central  and  eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The  latest MMCFS  (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System ) forecast  indicates that La Niña conditions are likely to sustain during the upcoming hot weather season,” the Met said in its outlook.

Although La Niña usually means cooler temperatures in India in the summer, it does not seem to hold true this year.

“The La Niña’s cooling effect has started diminishing. We have seen 30 degrees Celsius plus temperatures in the last week of February in the past also, but this time the average maximum temperature is definitely higher,” Kuldeep Shrivastava, head of IMD’s regional weather forecasting centre, said.

The year 2020 was tied with 2016 for the hottest year since reliable records have been kept, as global warming linked to greenhouse gas emissions have shown no signs of diminishing, despite a significant fall in human activity due to lockdowns imposed in large parts of the world to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.

Intense heatwaves

India will face worse heatwaves unless urgent action is taken, according to the Indian government’s first comprehensive report on current climate change impacts and future scenarios till the end of the century.

India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7 degrees Celsius during 1901-2018, said the Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, a report by India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Unless steps are taken, average temperature over India will rise by approximately 4.4 degrees Celsius relative to the recent past (1976–2005 average) between 2070 and 2099, the report said in June 2020.

See: Climate change is making India less liveable

Such rise in temperatures will have dire consequences for Indians. Unless emissions are cut sharply to curb global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times, large parts of the tropics will see increasing episodes of high heat and high humidity that go beyond the limits of human survival, according to new research.

The research, published in March in the Nature Geoscience journal, focused on tropical regions between 20 degrees latitude north and 20 degrees latitude south, which are some of the hottest places on the planet. The region, home to over three billion people, includes South and East Asia, Central America and Central Africa.

The study — Projections of tropical heat stress constrained by atmospheric dynamics — looked at the so-called wet-bulb temperatures, which accounts for a combination of heat and humidity, and how much people can cool off during extreme heat by sweating.

Intolerable heat

The study found that if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees, wet-bulb temperatures will not exceed 35 degrees in the tropics. The human body cannot cool down above a wet-bulb temperature of 35 degrees Celsius because body sweat can no longer evaporate.

Prolonged exposure to such conditions could prove fatal even to healthy people, the researchers said in the study. The effects of high heat and humidity is worse for women, children and the elderly, scientists have found.

Increasing heat-related deaths due to climate change has revealed an unequal world, with people in poorer countries at much higher risk, according to an August 2020 study.

In the largest international study till now on health and financial impacts of temperature-related deaths, the Climate Impact Lab said climate change’s effect on temperatures could raise global mortality rates by 73 additional deaths per 100,000 people in 2100 under a continued high emissions scenario, compared to a world with no warming.

Working outdoors, which is a must for the majority of poor people in India engaged in farming and construction, is likely to worsen the effects of extreme heat.

“The data show that poor communities don’t have the means to adapt, so they end up dying from warming at much higher rates,” said study co-author Tamma Carleton of the University of California. “In poor hot countries, the heat may be even more threatening than cancer and heart disease are today,” said Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago, another co-author of the study.

See: Extreme heat will kill more people than infectious diseases

This is not the first time a study has revealed the stark inequality in the effect of ambient temperatures on death in human populations.

Using district-level daily weather and annual mortality data from 1957 to 2000 in India, researchers at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) in 2017 found that hot days led to substantial increases in mortality in rural but not urban India.

An October 2019 study by the Climate Impact Lab had found that by 2100, around 1.5 million more people are likely to die every year in India as a result of climate change, a rate that is as high as the death rate from all infectious diseases in the country today.

High rise

With continued high emissions, the average annual temperature in India is projected to increase from about 24 degrees Celsius to about 28 degrees by the end of the century, the 2019 study had found.

“These findings are a reminder that we have to keep making concerted, long-term efforts to build resilience to extreme heat,” Kamal Kishore, a member of India’s National Disaster Management Authority, had said in October 2019.

Extreme heat is an occupational health hazard, the International Labour Organisation said in a report in 2019. Most people can work only at half their capacity when temperatures are high, it said in the Working on a Warmer Planet report.

South Asia and West Africa are expected to be the worst affected because of high heat and humidity, and the high levels of poverty in these regions, the ILO had said. Impoverished communities are less capable of adapting to extreme temperatures and have low or no cooling options, either at work or at home.

The post Brace for hotter summers as temperatures rise across India appeared first on India Climate Dialogue.

Batteries for electric vehicles need to become cheaper and more powerful (Photo by Niti Aayog)

Nearly five years before the first Tesla hit the road, there was a diminutive two-door battery car that was zipping down the narrow lanes of London. It was made in Bangalore, India. The Reva, or the G-Wiz as it was known in Britain, was hardly inspiring to look at, offered a narrow range per charge and ran on a set of six lead-acid batteries strapped under the front seat.

In many ways, the Reva represented the early days of India’s experiments with electric mobility –under-whelming designs and over-focused on practicality. Even before the Reva, there were small outfits cobbling together two-wheelers that ran on lead-acid batteries. These were unreliable, extremely slow, sporting dowdy designs and their owners were almost always retirees trying to get the most out of their pension buck.

That market has evolved and is at the cusp of more change. At the heart of it is battery tech, and the myriad complexities surrounding tech and raw material access and manufacturing. The solutions will have to be uniquely Indian.

Graphics by Smita Pradhan

At stake is the electrification of the world’s largest two-wheeler market, and fourth largest automobile market overall. India produced more than 30 million autos in 2018-19, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Nearly five out of every six vehicles were two-wheelers. A little over four million were cars and sports utility vehicles.

In a country of over 1.3 billion, the automobile industry is projected to grow to touch the highs that China has reached, where passenger vehicle sales is nearly five times as much as India.

Electric market

If the Indian government’s ambitious goal is reached, by 2035 this will be an all-electric market.

The Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV) says there are over half a million electric two-wheelers on Indian roads today. Nearly 90% are scooters with a maximum speed of 15 miles an hour. They do not have to be registered; their riders do not need licences.

Locally assembled electric cars number a few thousands. A majority sold recently are run by fleet operators. Passenger EVs in the hands of individual owners, imported or locally assembled, are a minuscule part of the market. EV sales account for less than 1% of the total vehicle sales today. SMEV projects it will grow to 5% by 2025.

Other researchers project that half the 2-wheeler sold by 2025 may be e-scooters. A June 2018 Morgan Stanley report predicts that 30% of new vehicle sales by 2030 may be EVs, and half the car fleet will be electric by 2040.

Battery, battery, battery

For all this to happen, batteries must become stronger, last longer and sell cheaper.

Morgan Stanley projects battery cost to fall to a point where EVs achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in India by 2026. Mordor Intelligence estimates the Indian battery market will quadruple in the next five years.

Graphics by Smita Pradhan

This will happen only if India can follow China’s lead to secure sources of the rare earths that go into the making of a modern battery – lithium, nickel and cobalt. Cheaper batteries with longer ranges and lifespans are just as essential. Today, the battery pack is half the cost of an electric car; it is only a bit less in electric two-wheelers. As a result, all types of electrified personal transportation cost almost twice as much as their fossil fuel counterparts.

Little manufacturing, less research

In the immediate future, lead-acid battery powered two-wheelers will continue to dominate the Indian EV space due to cost-sensitivity. But lithium-ion battery packs are fast becoming popular. Much of the current manufacturing of vehicle batteries in India revolves around the integration of lithium-ion cells and related sensors, electronics etc. and creating the algorithms for the battery management system. There has not been any fundamental research into cell chemistry or engineering of the cells themselves.

Says Imran Haque, Automotive Lead Partner, Roland Berger India, “Cell manufacturing involves high capex and becomes viable only at a certain minimum capacity level. And the market, at least in the near future, will see capacity expansion primarily coming in from electric 2 and 3 wheelers. In our discussions with OEs and suppliers we don’t see a business case to invest in cell manufacture.”

Haque adds that the battery pack which puts together the cells and related systems will be localised, but cell manufacture may become feasible only after FY25. Some of the elements of localisation of the battery packs are also related to customising them for Indian conditions – for handling high temperatures, the risk of waterlogging, and for improving efficiency level and operating life.

The result of all the new research may help deliver customised solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). But, for the immediate future, the cost of a BEV will still be considerably higher than its fossil fuel counterpart. Like it has been with other developed markets, government tax incentives are imperative for making EVs more affordable in the Indian market too. With significantly fewer moving parts, EVs may be able to promise lower life-cycle costs compared to regular vehicles, but the initial purchase price is still an entry barrier.

Graphics by Smita Pradhan

Nikhilesh Mishra, co-founder of battery start-up Grinntech, says, “Though the automobile industry would like to see the rates go down to about USD 100 per kWh for lithium-ion cells, the current range is quite varied. This is just for the base cells, after inputs like a battery management system, related electronics and an active cooling system. If it is a larger pack, the cost of an EV battery could range from USD 130 to USD 250 per kWh depending on the features, complexity and application (2, 3 or 4-wheeler).” This is the manufacturer’s cost. Consumers will have to pay more.

Whither the government

The sale of EVs in India is highly dependent on government incentives, and the current economic situation does not make it easy to provide incentives. Still, the effect of air pollution in cities has forced governments to focus on EVs. The government of the national capital, Delhi, is pushing for BEVs as new public transport vehicles, starting with locally assembled e-rickshaws.

Other state governments are following, and e-rickshaws are fast replacing fossil fuel variants. The central government has also been allocating funds for schemes that incentivise purchase of EVs. This has had patchy and limited success but is being reimplemented with newer regulations that will focus on full electric mobility and not on hybrids. Called the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) Scheme 2, it has been allocated INR 100 billion (about USD 1.4 billion) for distribution as incentives for EV buyers.

The central government had set an ambitious target of reaching 6-7 million EV sales by 2020, which has not been achieved. It has again set a stiff target of reaching 100% of new vehicle registrations by 2035 being EVs. There are numerous stumbling blocks on the way, even if prices come down. One is the lack of a widespread charging infrastructure. The second is range anxiety. Private investment has started flowing into creating a network of charging stations, but viability may be a problem – the price per unit of charge may need to be so high that it may make running the EV unattractive. It will be difficult to subsidise power-supply to charging stations. Consumers may choose to charge only at homes or their places of work.

Indian solutions

Currently, the biggest players in the lithium-ion battery segment in the organised sector are Exide Industries and Amara Raja Batteries. Toshiba has announced a joint venture with Suzuki of Japan and Denso for setting up a greenfield battery manufacturing plant largely to supply to car market leader Maruti Suzuki India. The facility is still in the works. But, these big battery brands, which supply directly to OEMs are unlikely to deliver the disruption that the EV market needs for quickening the pace of adoption.

For 3-wheeler EVs, the bigger battery players have come from the unorganised sector. Helping them to get organised may be the way forward.

Meanwhile, big battery manufacturers from China, South Korea and Japan are all planning their forays, hoping to cash in on the expected explosion in the middle market for high-performance 2–wheelers and small electric cars. Morgan Stanley estimates this market may be worth nearly USD 1 trillion by 2030.

Graphics by Smita Pradhan

The government is allowing EV makers to sell their vehicles without an inbuilt battery pack. The buyer can then choose to lease the battery from the vehicle maker or a third party. This may spawn battery swapping stations, yet another different path India may take.

Some of the most disruptive new vehicle makers in India have emerged from start-up ecosystem – brands like Ather Energy, which has already launched its e-scooters. A similar new brand in the electric 2-wheeler space is Ultraviolette, which is developing a high performance electric motorcycle. The oldest and biggest Indian electric 2-wheeler maker is Hero Electric. All can benefit from a battery-swapping model. But they are being careful because battery swapping has potential operational risks.

The disruption from the dynamic start-up ecosystem may drive future EV adoption in the lower end of the market.

Some sceptics, some enthusiasts

Sumantran, chairman of Celeris Technologies and co-author of Faster, Smarter, Greener: the future of the car and urban mobility, says, “Swapping batteries will lead to wear and tear of connectors, risks associated with contact resistance and electrical shorts. Bulk transportation is also a risk and so a fair degree of automation will be needed for many of these operations.”

Grinntech’s Mishra is more confident. Many e-rickshaw drivers take their vehicles on lease because they cannot afford to buy. Battery lease will only be an extension. Grinntech is hoping to supply directly to OEMs and to individual consumers.

C.V. Raman, senior executive director (engineering), Maruti Suzuki India, says, “There are practical issues on the ground that need to be addressed even before we can expect to push for mass adoption of EVs. Step-by-step approach growing from mild-hybrid all the way to a BEV is a sensible approach. Jumping that curve is not easy and to do it without making any compromises along the way is the biggest challenge.”

Roland Berger’s Haque thinks the business model can work for 2 and 3 wheelers, especially for fleet operators and e-commerce companies which many delivery vehicles. “We have found that OEMs are expecting this to be a trend that will find traction with the B2B segment, where e-commerce outfits with hundreds of scooters or 3-wheelers will find setting up a battery-swapping facility for their own use feasible.”

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