Market Calls

CRAZY NOT EQUAL TO STUPID

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:15:19 PDT

One truck driver was doing his usual delivery to IMH (Institute of

mental health).

He discovered a flat tyre when he was about to go home. He jacked up

the truck and took the flat tyre down.

When he was about to fix the spare tyre, he accidentally dropped all

the bolts into the drain.. As he can't fish the bolts out, he started

to panic.

One patient happened to walk past and asked the driver what happened.

The driver thought to himself, since there's nothing much he can do;

he told the patient the whole incident.

The patient laughed at him & said "can't even fix such a simple

problem.... no wonder you are destined to be a truck driver..."

Here's what you can do, take one bolt each from the other 3 tyres and

fix it onto this tyre. Then drive to the nearest workshop and replace

the missing ones, easy as that" The driver was very impressed and

asked "You're so smart but why are you here at the IMH?"

Patient replied: "Hello, I stay here because I'm crazy....... not STUPID !"

Me to: I stay here because I'm crazy....... not STUPID

Formation of H&S Pattern in Suzlon 1 min Charts

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:00:19 PDT

Chart shows the formation of Head and Shoulder pattern in Suzlon with Neckline Supports at Rs 92

Breakdown below 92 warns a reversal towards the base support of Rs 84

Aban 15 min Charts with GANN Indicator

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:31:23 PDT

Aban 15 min Charts shows that it is likely to test resistance near 900 zone.
Resisting near 900 Zone and fallout below 830(weekly 5 EMA resistance) will
target 500 in coming sessions. However a close above 900 Warns that bulls
are kicked inside this counter

GANN Chart for Bearish Bharti

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:42:17 PDT

Daily Gann Charts for Bharti indicate a EOD resistance Near 790 and Supports near 770 levels.

Fresh Breakout above 790 and Breakdown below 770 levels for a Target of 740, 680 and 580.

Nifty Gann Fan Charts for 17 July 2009

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 11:25:23 PDT

Nifty though shoots above Gann Fan in todays opening session. But failed to close above the Breakout Fann line.

So Possibly in Coming sessions 4240-4260 will act as a Resistance zone in coming session. Uptrend will continue

only if Nifty also to cross and sustain above 4240 and 4260. Failure will target the Support line 4000 Zone in comin

sessions

Sensex/Dow Ratio Update

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:05:27 PDT

Chart : Daily ratio chart for Sensex/Dow Jones

Declining Sensex/Dow ratio's and Negative Divergence in the ratio charts

Suggests Dow Jones to outperform Sensex for a longer period of time.

Related Readings

Dow to Outperform Sensex - 1st July 2009

Why 4242 is important?

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:55:04 PDT

Nifty last week closed below 5 EMA resistance after a long time(check the charts)

Currently Nifty is hanging below the 5 EMA resistance Zone 4242 and also very close

resistance zone. Nifty's sustainability above 4242 on weekly basis is heavily needed for

the uptrend to sustain.

Nifty Hourly Gann Fan Charts

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 05:57:58 PDT

Lines of Gann Fan are built at different angles from an important base or peak at the price chart. The trend line of 1х1 was considered by Gann the most important. If the price curve is located above this line, it is the indication of the bull market, if it is below this line it is that of the bear market. Gann thought that the ray of 1x1 is a powerful support line when the trend is ascending, and he considered the breaking this line as an important turn signal. Gann emphasized the following nine basic angles, the angle of 1x1 being the most important of all:

1х8 — 82.5 degree

1х4 — 75 degree

1х3 — 71.25 degree

1х2 — 63.75 degree

1х1 — 45 degree

2х1 — 26.25 degree

3х1 — 18.75 degree

4х1 — 15 degree

8х1 — 7.5 degree

The considered ratios of price and time increments to have corresponding angles of slope in degrees, X and Y axes must have the same scales. It means that a unit interval on X axis (i.e., hour, day, week, month) must correspond with the unit interval on Y axis. The simplest method of chart calibration consists in checking the angle of slope of the ray of 1х1: it must make 45 degrees.

Gann noted that each of the above-listed rays can serve as support or resistance depending on the price trend direction. For example, ray of 1x1 is usually the most important support line when the trend is ascending. If prices fall below 1х1 line, it means the trend turns. According to Gann, prices should then sink down to the next trend line (in this case, it is the ray of 2х1). In other words, if one of rays is broken, the price consolidation should be expected to occur near the next ray.

Simply to interpret Gann Fan Lines will act as Support/Resistance

Nifty Hourly Elliot Wave Interpretation

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 21:37:25 PDT

Still now the whole correction from 4700 to 3924 levels can be viewed as a ABC correcive waves with 5-3-5 sub wave pattern

Length of A Wave is 4700-4158 = 542. Length of C wave is 4480-3915=565 so the minimum criteria for the C wave should be equal to the length of the A wave which is met from where a sharp bounce back has taken place which is a indication of the next bull run to begin in short term. Alternatively there is also a possiblity of C wave could be 1.618 times of A wave

i.e 542*1.618 = 876.9 in length

So Alternatively C wave could end at 4480-876 = 3603

So the alternative strategy is to viewing the down wave from 4480-3915 as a 5 wave pattern of 1st Subwave of a 5 wave impulse downwave pattern.... and corrections are left in nifty if 3900 has been broken out. Condition fails if 3900 is not me any of the time.

Base Supports 3900. If broken then target 3603

Nifty Weekly Analysis for 13-17, July, 2009

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 17:16:25 PDT

Nifty closes below a fresh 4 week low.

Nifty Weekly Resistance

5 EMA-Low - 4105 - candle closed below 5EMA -Low on Weekly basis since March,2009

13 EMA - 4033 - Nifty closed below major Fibonacci Moving Average support which could act as a resistance zone for current week

Nifty Weekly Support

34/55 EMA - 3708/3754 will act as a Support zone on weekly basis

Bharti Weekly Charts - NMA Analysis

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 01:43:44 PDT

NMA Analysis offering a long term sell signal in Bharti Weekly Charts with Supports at 740 and 630 region.

Will FII's be Net Buyers??

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:47:37 PDT

USD Index still not intrested in giving up its bearish downwave. Still trading below the restance line $81 for the past five

weeks. Breakout above 81-82 Zone suggest that FII's could turn netsellers for a very longer duration and sustainanbility

below $81 suggest that FII could turn Net Buyers.

FII will be fond of selling relatively low interest yielding assets and could move into buying

high interest yielding assests.

Nick Rypock Trailing Reverse Trading System(NRTR)

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:00:09 PDT

Sensex Wtih NRTR Swing Trading indicators

Trading System is for those investors who just only interested in making profits in trades and not interested in trading based on news, fundamentals , bias. Here is a simple trading system to catch the trend with simple buy/sell indications. This system also called as NMA Swing trading system... Nick Moving Average a popular Forex trading system

About NRTR Trading System
The gist of the NRTR is it is always at a distance from the reached price extermums - below the chart at rising trends and above the chart at descending trends. The following idea was pursued here: the small correcional movements against the main trend must be ignored, and the movement against the main tendency exceeding some level (the size of the moving filter K) signalize about the reverse of the tendency.

The dynamic price channel is used for the calculation of NRTR. Only the prices the current trend contains take part in the calculations and the extremums that belong to the previous tendency are excluded. The indicator is always at the same distance (in percentage terms, in this case) from the extremums that the prices have reached (below the maximum peak for the current up-trend, above the minimum valley for the current down-trend).

For the rising trends:

NRTR = Highest(Close, period)*(1-(K/100)),

For the descending trends:

NRTR = Lowest(Close, period)*(1+(K/100)),

where the first part of the expression is the highest/lowest price extremum that was reached in the period of the last crossing the indicator by the prices, K is the size of the moving filter in percentage terms the indicator stands from the reached extremums by.

As well as any other simplified approach, this indicator works greatly on the trend sections of the market but it starts fooling on the non-trend ones.

Amibroker AFL code can be downloaded from Here

NMA Swing Trading AFL Code

Reference

NMA Swing Trading System

Reliance 13-34-55 EMA Weekly strategy

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:28:03 PDT

Applying 13-34-55 EMA strategy along with 2 period RSI to Weekly charts. We could able to

find that reliance possibly could trade at ultimate supports as the EMA supports 34 EMA and

55 EMA(weekly) are very close to the price(1835). And also RSI-2(weekly) value near 5 suggests

that correction in reliance probably might be over temporarily and could outperform nifty in short term

in coming weeks.

Nifty Daily Charting using 13-34-55 EMA Principle

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:14:20 PDT

Applying 13-34-55 Strategy to Nifty daily charts we are able to find that nifty is trading at ultimate supports ie at 55 EMA(4077).

Possibly a bounce back from this level towards 4155 for this will make nifty a range bound behaviour between

4155-4450 levels. Failure to sustain on EOD basis will take nifty towards 3716

Nifty Weekly view using 5 EMA(Low-high) + 13 EMA

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 00:34:23 PDT

Lets a have a quick look on nifty weekly chart with 5EMA(low-high)+13 EMA.

study suggests supports around 5 EMA low(4159) and 13 EMA(4105).Below

that next level of support comes near 34 EMA(weekly) around 3716(not shown here)

Also 5 EMA(low-high) study indicates a range bound movement with breakout above 4456 and support

breakdown below 4105 with possible rangebound between 4105-4456

Twiggs Money flow Update for Sensex

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:26:19 PDT

Chart shows 21 day Twiggs Money flow indicator for sensex with negative divergence in negative divergence pattern.Now the major roadblock is near 14900-15100 Zone. Needs a Strong breakout to sustain for a new uptrend.

Nifty Futures Hourly Charts and Elliot for 6 July 2009

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:08:10 PDT

Just got fooled with the randomness in the 15 min Nifty future chart in my earlier view . So looking into a higher timeframe as shown above Nifty has formed a typical 5-3 wave pattern with 5 wave downward impulse pattern ending near 4155 and 3 Wave impulse pattern ending near 4440 levels. This pattern will fail if nifty opens gap up above 4440

Now Nifty Future is likely to resist near 4440 levels so that elliot wave pattern in houly charts could proved right or Else resisting near 4500-4510 to form a typical head and shoulders in nifty daily charts.

Reason for the Bearishness is still the market leader reliance is lagging Nifty
When market hits historical circuits nifty closed near 4300 levels and reliance near 2450 levels. Later when market was dragging down from its high of 4700 to 4250 it is observed reliance is trading near 2040 and now nifty above 4400 but still reliance near 2000 levels. Clearly there is a widening of performance between Nifty and the major constituent. It also means that keenly it is not intrested in participating in the upmove.

Also trin is a good earlier indication in producing signals. But still trin is not in bullz zone(below 1).

Also check for the charts on hourly basis...means if the hourly candle closes above 4450 then it is sign of strength... ex check during the end of hour near 9:59:59 A.m or near 10.59.59 a.m or near 11.59.59 a.m. If nifty trade below 4440 in all the durations then it is a clear sign of weekness. There is also chance of testing 4500 levels in between 10:00:00 a.m - 10:59:59 a.m

Still No Confirmation of Bullishness from Trin

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:28:25 PDT

Supports Upgraded to 4340 and resistance near 4444 and 4500.

But Trin still stays above 1. Still no confirmation of bullishness from Trin

Elliot Pattern Failed. Have to reconsider the pattern once again.

Nifty Futures Indicate Immediate Correction

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:09:31 PDT

Above chart is the update of yesterday's 15 min chart

Nifty Future likley to start a bigger and immediate correction from current levels.

Nifty Weekly Levels to Watch

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:35:03 PDT

Just a simple chart once again to have an eye. Chart shows simple 5/13 EMA for nifty weekly charts.Charts offering a target of 4025 if Dips below 4340. Until nifty trades below 4340 bearishness to remain.

Nifty Futures Elliot Pattern in 15 min charts

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:53:21 PDT

Nifty likely to form a 5-3-5 wave pattern if nifty resists from 4350-4387 zone. Trend will turn down once 4250 turns down. Pattern will fail if nifty turns and closes above 4400

Zooming into the 15 min charts we could able to recognize the 5-3 ideal Elliot pattern as shown above

Dow to Outperform Sensex??

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:07:40 PDT

How about plotting a ratio chart of Sensex/Dow. I just produced a weekly chart of Sensex/Dow ratio chart for . From the chart

we could infer that increasing ratio's favor Sensex to Outperform Dow and declining ratio's favor Dow to outperform Sensex

Sensex Outperformed Dow in two durations

from Aug 2007 to Jan 2009

from Nov 2008 to June 2009

Dow Outpeformed Sensex

from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008

Will Dow Jones Outperform Now???

Now the question in my mind is will Dow outperform Sensex. Note: Outperformer does'nt denotes who is going

to be a top gainer. Its all about who is the best performer among the two. Currently on week on week basis

sensex is trading at the ratio of 1.72x-1.73x of dow jones. And from the RSI-5 period indicates the weekness in the ratio

and likely the ratio's could drop in coming weeks. i.e Dow to Outperform Sensex on weekly basis.

Few Points

1) If Dow is trading at 8447 then the fair value of Sensex is 8447x 1.73 = 14613

2) Decline in Dow will hugely affect the Sensex Performance as the ratio's are very high(1.72)

3) Daily Sensex/Dow ratio's shows a strong Negative divergence pattern(Not presented here)

4) High Correlation between Dow Jones and Sensex (Check out the charts from reutersindia.net ) shows that

high correlation between sensex and Dow Jones

Nifty Positional Long/Shorts Update - 1st July 2009

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 22:19:22 PDT

Current Position : Short

Resistance Near : 4340-4350 levels

USED Moving Average Crossovers : 1030min EMA & 70 min EMA
Charts Used : 5 day Charts, 5 min Bars

Go Long Rules
If The faster line (red ) goes above the green - > Close shorts & immediately go long.

Go Short Rules
The faster line (red ) goes below the green - > Close longs & immediately go short.

No other Indicators Needed... Works Well Especially in Volatile Times

Stop Loss
An initial acceptable range for the stop depending on your comfort level can be put. As the Nifty moves in your direction , immediately put the the stop at the purchase price + brokerage as soon as possible.

To Get these charts live with Zero minute delay visit http://nsetracker.blogspot.com

Until now no Bullish Cues from Trin

rajandran@gmail.com (Rajandran) — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:56:43 PDT

Until now 10 day SMA trin shows bearishness(raising trin) and today shows a sharp move

towards 2.0 i.e still at oversold levels(Delivery based selling zone)

Note : Only falling trin is considered as bullish. Raising Trin is Considered as bearish

Still Now.

1)No Bullish cues from TRIN(Still in raising mode)

2)No Bullish Cue from USD Index(Still remains rangebound)

3)Nifty Bearish Top formation in Weekly Charts

4)Reliance lagging Nifty - A Bearish Factor as per Dow theory if the market leader lags the index

Links for 2008-07-06 [del.icio.us]

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 00:00:00 PDT

A 1.48 Trillion Dollar Headache