Indian Weatherman

2012-05-27T12:58:00.001+05:30

chennai - have stiff breeze from W-N-W and N-W ... this will not allow the Rain bringing Sea breeze to set in.!

2012-05-27T12:45:00.001+05:30

Other HOT cities at 12:10pm are, Nagpur = 46.0°C, Lucknow = 42.0°C, Delhi = 40.0°C

2012-05-27T12:44:00.001+05:30

chennai - at 12:10pm, temp was 39.0°C and feels like 42.7°C

2012-05-27T12:34:00.003+05:30

Monsoon Watch - 7 ... http://ow.ly/baV5n

2012-05-27T12:34:00.001+05:30

Today, Vorticity is high over N.N-E (includes chennai) and Central Tamilnadu ... T.showers possible after 2pm.. http://ow.ly/i/EDve

Monsoon Watch - 7 by "vagaries of the weather"

2012-05-27T12:27:00.002+05:30

SWM has further moved into Southern Sri Lanka. Maldives and Northern Andaman Sea.
Galle in Sri Lanka recieved 63mms of rain and Ratnapura got 30 mms on Saturday, 26th, while Colombo measured 15 mms.

Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay and Arabian Sea. Winds over 30-35 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast, and 40 knts winds are seen in the Bay.
Winds off the Sri Lanka coast have picked up considerably.

Today's SST map is reproduced here to show the Sea temperature not falling sufficiently yet along the Somali coast. It is presently around 24c. Now, this difference with the Central Arabian Sea plays a key role in cloud formations off the Western Coastline of India in the Central Arabian Seas. The SST along the Somali coast will rapidly fall to around 18/20c in the next 10 days.

But the current fall is sufficient to help form Monsoon clouds around the Maldives. Cloud formation near Sri Lanka is gathering, and in next 24 hrs, wind speed along the Sri Lanka coast is estimated at 35 mph (in gusts).
A slight fall is seen in the Bay water's SST.

The ITCZ is slowly moving up, but is still around the Equator regions, and in the 5N region in the Bay sector.

SWM should set in over Sri Lanka within next 24 hrs, that is by the 28th May.

The Seasonal Low seems to have strengthened. We see today's pressure at 998 mb. Getting gradually ready enough to create a gradiant to pull up SW winds into the mainland. The day temperatures on the Sub-Continent Northern plains are on the higher side since Wednesday, with the average the day's highs are around 42/43c. Across in Pakistan' Sindh region, the core area for the formation of the low, the highest was 46c on Saturday. M-5 effect was expected bring about a slight fall in the day readings(reported in Vagaries yesterday).

M-5 is seen moving away from India. WDs should slow down now, as the jet streams at 200 hpa are re-grouping fast into position.

The Jet Stream Westerlies are almost upto the 15N line, and the "High" formation is taking shape East of Bangladesh. Expected movement of this "High" should be inland towards MP for perfect position.

The Bay sector SWM has been stagnant, and not picking up as expected from a "setting in" Monsoon. Its lack of systems could be attributed to M-4/5. Strong westerly currents prevent the formation of lows to move into the bay and towards the Indian mainland. They divert the forming currents.
As SW winds should pick up speed in the next 2 days, SWM "in situ", could advance further into the Bay. Better before another WD reaches the region to spoil the "party".

Conclusion: SWM advancing into Sri Lanka by 28th (late by 3 days).
Advance into Kerala around Vagaries' expected date, 3rd/4th June. But, further advance would need monitoring.
Possibly into Coastal Karnataka and Southern TN regions by the 7th of June.
South Konkan and Goa around 8th June, and Mumbai by 13th/14th June.

Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/

2012-05-27T12:23:00.003+05:30

Monsoon in Srilanka .. Galle in Sri Lanka recieved 63mms of rain and Ratnapura got 30 mms Colombo measured 15 mms on 26-May

2012-05-27T12:23:00.001+05:30

Isolated T.showers expected over W.ghats of Kerala, N.central Tamilnadu, N,S,S-W Karnataka in next 24 hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/EDtc

2012-05-27T12:19:00.001+05:30

Strong Winds from W,N-W will continue over E.Maharastra, N.Tamilnadu, chennai , and entire Andhra for another 3 days. http://ow.ly/i/EDsz

2012-05-27T12:16:00.001+05:30

A perfect monsoon onset over Kerala may get disturbed by the expected formation of Circulation over W-Central Arabian sea !

2012-05-27T12:14:00.001+05:30

After 1-Jun, the temp. over S,S-E Peninsula (including chennai , Bangalore) will go down by 2 deg C.

2012-05-27T12:13:00.001+05:30

Here's the model map showing a circulation over W-central Arabian sea on 1-Jun .. http://ow.ly/i/EDrv

2012-05-27T12:09:00.001+05:30

Latest COLA model expects a circulation to pop over W-central Arabian sea on 1-Jun, by that time a weak Monsoon current will reach Kerala !

2012-05-27T12:06:00.001+05:30

On 26-May, highest maximum temperature of 47.2°C was recorded at Bramhapuri (Andhra Pradesh)

2012-05-27T09:16:00.002+05:30

SWM has further moved into Southern Sri Lanka. Maldives and Northern Andaman Sea.
Galle in Sri Lanka recieved 63mms of rain and Ratnapura got 30 mms on Saturday, 26th, while Colombo measured 15 mms.

Cross Equatorial Flow has picked up considerably in the Bay and Arabian Sea. Winds over 30-35 knts are seen gushing Northwards off the Somali Coast, and 40 knts winds are seen in the Bay.
Winds off the Sri Lanka coast have picked up considerably.

A local heat vortex developing may bring about a thunders shower in and around Chennai on Sunday.
NW Sub-Continent day temperatures will further fall by around 2c next 2 days. However, the hot days in AP and coastal TN will see lower day temperatures from Monday, to the extent of 2.3c.

For Updates, keep checking on Indianweatherman and Monsoon Advance Map on "Current Weather Page"in Vagaries.

2012-05-26T19:27:00.001+05:30

RT @fabwrite: Another cloudy day in chennai with not a drop of rain!!! >> And Temperature touched a max. of 38 deg C .. @chennaiweather

2012-05-26T17:53:00.001+05:30

Remnant of present W.D will be over Kashmir for another 12 hrs and NO more W.D till 1-Jun!

2012-05-26T17:52:00.001+05:30

5pm, Monsoon showers seen over Camorin Sea (area south of Kanyakumari) ... and heavy showers seen all over Andamans.. http://ow.ly/i/EyV3

2012-05-26T17:48:00.001+05:30

Isolated Heavy T.showers possible for N,N-central,N-coastal Tamilnadu in next 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/EyTZ

2012-05-26T17:31:00.001+05:30

Monsoon progress map as of 26-May.. http://ow.ly/i/EyQb

2012-05-26T17:29:00.001+05:30

COLA models suggest that Monsoon moisture & air current will reach S.Kerala on 2-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/EyPq

2012-05-26T17:26:00.001+05:30

Monsoon will reach Kerala on 2/3-Jun-2012

2012-05-26T17:11:00.001+05:30

Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of Maldive and Comorin area and some more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal

2012-05-26T15:05:00.001+05:30

Chennai - having a medium high cloud cover from 10am till now 2:50pm. Sprinkling of rain in some zones as well!

2012-05-26T12:03:00.001+05:30

Gwalior @ 34.5c.......Minimum Temperature today Morning !