indonesia economy's blog

Warren Buffet Go Shopping for Energy Stocks

2008-11-16T20:24:00.000-08:00

It's in the news, The Trader Guru Warren Buffet start a hunt on Energy stocks. Using his financial Company's Berkshire Hathaway, he acquire 17,5 million of Conoco Shares. Could it means bottom has reached ?

However, the tycoon has made some statement he is doing this for a long term stake. Just curious how long is his long term anyway. For your insight my fellow reader, these days, oil exporting nation suffer for a massive decrease in oil price caused by economic slowdown in many major-oil-importing-nation, just go googling, you'll find news saying that Japan, German, Britain has gone to depression.

For Indonesia, this could be good, since we are a net importing nation. Well, at least theoretically.

Forum on Finance and Economy [in Bahasa]

2008-11-12T22:49:00.000-08:00

Yesterday I start a new forum, it's http://forum.belajarkeuangan.com, frankly speaking, the forum still empty and i'm in a process of persuading people i know have competence in finance/economy topics. The process this far is going well, i got researcher from Gadjah Mada University joining my band [nickname : hamdy] he moderate news forum. While another friend of mine [nickname : p3ni] moderate forum on practical finance. I'm in a process to persuade another friend with IT background to help me run the administration, hope he will agree my offer.

For any of you speak in Bahasa and have a decent time and power to join, i hope [beg] you to join our team. Just register at the forum and PM me.

i plan this forum also have some educational resource, there is a forum on basic finance. Geezzz, i hope i have the power to go on. Wish me luck everybody!

what if the worst happen to you

2008-11-02T17:33:00.000-08:00

I read in the news lately that fed rates cut have stimulate further economic expansion in US, this is truly a good news. I hope that there will be much more good news then. By rates cut, company will be encourage to expand it's business (price for having debts will be less expensive). Therefore more jobs will be created, more consumption triggered, and thus the economy expand.

But that story is just some ideal, no body knows how some factors affect economy. the above paragraph is only held true assuming ceteris paribus (other factor remain constant). We still have no vision what the tomorrow will be. Just in case you ended jobless in this shaky moment, here some nice blogs on how to earn from Internet.

It's make money on line blogs that may come handy for you. Just a word of warning, you are not alone in this jungle of net. Make a decent protection for you system and your account, there are thief out there waiting for you to bets your precious bucks.

Good Day and take care.

A Good Day to Die [in The Crisis]

2008-10-31T07:45:00.000-07:00

Die.... no man! seriously, that's just a bombastic title to distract you [honestly, honour yours and others life]. Now i want to talk something about Indonesian economy again. This time about indonesian company profit.

Well as you my fellow analyst may aware 2007-2008 truly is a golden period for Indonesia, after recovered from a monetary crisis started at 1998, Indonesian firm finally could move on and focus on expansion once again [rather than trying to fix the 1998 mistake], banks credit growth achieve its peak at this period, And it is very lucky for us that the US crisis got it's final breakout on the 4th quarter of this financial year. Assuming the growth was good in the previous quarter, i bet you that there will be a nice amount of shiny golden -great growth- financial statement for this financial year. This could be a good boost to stock market [however the final statement usually out at March].

Look at the fact i gather from detikfinance.com [you can search for the ticker abreviation in Yahoo! Finance [add .jk suffix]] :
- CMNP gain IDR 92 bn for it's 3rd quarter profit [76% from target]
- Lippo Karawaci had a y-o-y profit growth of 14%
- UNTR book profit of IDR 2 tn for it's 3rd quarter [y-o-y rise for 89%]
- Astra International profit is IDR 9 bn higher that it was on the previous year

Just hope guys!!! this crisis period is not long enough to crush those achievement. I hope in 2009 companies have enough time to fix things destroyed in the current crisis before the annual financial report made [for 2009 financial year].

Bite the tongue [another "crisis break" post]

2008-10-31T07:29:00.000-07:00

For a break [again ??!?], i'd like to show you another honest blog i found, it is the lousy poet this honorable blog have a nice way of telling something, and also you will amazed on how the blog owner put a vast option of blog category on this blog. While there is post on animated japanese movie [my favorite], death note, evangelion, etc you can also expect a unique yet carefully chosen glossary in this blog. Do you now exactly what is "facetious" is?

[He..he....he.....] Facetious is exactly what i am doing now !! Facetious, facetious, ..... even i bite my tongue trying to spell it [seriously, facetious meant to be humorous or funny : not serious] well if i am not humorous in this bumpy period, what will become of me......

Yet the blog give a unique creeps of it's black, green and red color scheme, it was making people easier to read the blog. So guys, why don't you stop by to this little shy blog for me.......

Why Mr. Boediono didn't lower the BI Rates

2008-10-30T08:47:00.000-07:00

[back to our main discussion ^_^] some of you may have aware how Mr. Boediono [the Indonesian Central Bank Governor] has decide to raise BI Rate. Yet no one in the news i read give any compliment about this policy, many criticize how the rate will crush the expansion of Indonesian economics.

Since banks play a major role in indonesian economics, most company got their finance from banks, rather than issuing obligation or stocks. The rate hikes will make bank liquidity source become more expensive, and this will cause banks to increase their lending rate also, while the lending rates increase will mean heavier burden for company, in significant way, company will forced to do lay off to spend less money in HR.

looking at the bright side, may be, just may be Mr. Boediono have some concern that in fact, Indonesian economics are build majorly on top of foreign investment, that making the foreign investment come to our economy is important. And with the rates cut in other countries Indonesia will gain from incoming investment. And also, Indonesian banks have problems with their expansion volume also. Note that these years (2007-2008) Indonesian banks book a massive around 20-30% of Lending Growth, this in my opinion will lead to less prudent banking practice [this is also the roots of current US crisis].

so, how the thing will go on is something beyond our reach this time, i have confidence on Mr Boediono personality, personally, i hope he and government as a whole make a right troubleshooting policy for this bumpy moment.

well, for you [and me] my fellow analyst, maybe it is time to include pessimistic scenario in your analysis, just for protection, your own protection [serious mode : ON]. good night and take care.

more on the financial crisis epicentrum

2008-10-30T08:33:00.000-07:00

This is one of the proof i want to give you, my fellow reader. Life DOES still go on [ and will go on ], even in the US, from where the crisis started and causing major banks bankruptcy and much more, there is also survival of the everyday life. Raising daughter, going to church, doing hobbies and many more.

i'll tell you my feeling when i read this blog of Hot Diggidy Blog Diggidy, What You Do To Me. Her post may be the most honest blog post I've ever seen, yet she can describe her feeling so thorough, she also tell much of her daughter [ she describe her daughter as H, a 12 years old nice girl ].

well, continue your life guys, yes, i know how hard it is, not to be able to sleep well each night for we are not sure what will become in the next market opening [and how it close also] but mark my word! we will overcome this...........

everyday life in energizing Jakarta of Indonesia

2008-10-30T07:57:00.000-07:00

Hi there, i think it's a good idea to talk about Indonesia since I already decided to take a break to my financial life. [ well if i can't/wouldn't talk 'bout finance it's a good idea to talk about Indonesia, right ! ]. Indonesia, the rest of Indonesia to be frank is some honest, peaceful and quiet place. We do have our share of conflict [ Which country are not, anyway ] But to be exact, it's a very cozy place you know, the beauty of nature combined with the massive cultural heritage of Indonesian tribes. And don't get me wrong, we are not some uncivilized remote country with a grass wearing people, well at least not me [ i can get online, see..!! ].

You can read a lot how culture mixed with industrious life in Ivy soraya . She tells lot of "modern thing", yet she is not bad at discussing our custom. You can read about Sabang Island [the most western island of Indonesian Archipelago], yet you can read also about the crowdness of Jakarta city, how she start find a "kost-kostan" [dormitory], how she make her living in Jakarta and much more of it, or maybe...... about her "Elling Bra" instead ^_^].

Sweet charming personality i guess, open to many roads ahead. Nice blog sis!

Privy the Grey News Site

2008-10-30T01:56:00.000-07:00

There is always a room for a creativity in blog, won't you agree with that?

Still in my relaxation period, from world financial crisis that affect all that is dear to me, i find it very amusing to walk around blog from all over the world. I gladly report to you that i found this blog Privy, I don't know, my 6th sense telling me that this blog owned by Indian or at least a Pakistani blogger (i get that feeling from pictures displayed by the web). What get my attention most was the Financial Crisis tag (in the sidebar). Well if you want to keep relax i guess you should get away from this tag, since it welcome us with many (so many) sad stories about how the crisis affect company and individual in the most sad manner.

for the owner, i salute you that you gather so much about how the crisis affect people. And for the blog, i can say that you have a nice and decent taste for blog facing. not to shabby, not at all. just that your website giving me creeps of sad emotion (may be because of the grey thing), and this is enhancing the "financial crisis tag effect".

btw, that's a compliment OK

update to mortgage article blogs

2008-10-29T07:25:00.000-07:00

update to my previous "blog on mortgage article", i found this Mortgage and More Blog. The Blog have some decent article about personal loan management and also about the mortgage itself. However, some patient proven to be useful here, since "the more" parts of this blog often are not related to mortgage and personal loan. The blog design not so cool, but however that's not so important if you seek knowledge, right!

While read this blog, i found that the perspective of this blog owner is acceptable at certain aspect. However double check the fact printed on this blog. Use google or other common information source (wiki, other search engine, etc) to double check the number.

Moreover, if you need to find some honest, earthly and informative blog on mortgage and personal loan, you can stop by this blog.

Hey, leave message that i drive you to that blog okay! Just to notice him that there is nice people outthere (like me ^_^), maybe...... just maybe, he will give me something in return.

Remember there is placeto call home

2008-10-28T22:59:00.000-07:00

market crash ?! lost saving for big bucks bet in stocks market ?! you short stocks which freezed for weeks?

that's all been bugging many of us lately. With the volatility of market, everything can be happening in the next few second. That's definitely something not good for your health. Tell me if i'm wrong, but just like the common understanding high risk high gain, those high gain stock broker jobs you live in daily life DOES give you a high risk for a heart attack. Do gain that much problem for you? Do gain is everything in your life? (same happen to cut loss ^_^). Maybe, just maybe we should try to relax back, give a second to our rusty brain to understand, at last we all gonna go to our home when EOD is coming.

if home is websites, which sites will you called home? in my sparetime during this rushour i find this http://www.raptureddreams.com , well she's from canada you know! i wonder if canada hit by this global financial turmoil. Read her blog make me feel much more relaxed, that someone is still live her life out there. Doing reading books, watching movie, go to vacation site (she talks about Niagara Falls too ^_^).

these days I've been read more than enough about how market's going down and how it can down DEEPER, god help, have mercy on us trader and broker, is this punishment for us capitalist or is this your mercy giving us chance to look beyond our cramped cubicle, that's life out there.

fellow analyst, broker and trader..........remember, we still alive

mortgagevalue.blogspot.com

2008-10-21T03:17:00.000-07:00

considering recent world economic situation, affected heavily by mortgage and housing market in United States, temporarily i conduct some information mining upon the case. You may walk to my blog http://mortgagevalue.blogspot.com to read articles i've been read upon the case.

For copyright reason i limit the article i publish in that "scrapbook" blog to the open article only. If you have some comment please put some comment.

Thanks.

having realtime stock quotes without subscribe anything [indonesian stocks only]

2008-10-12T07:17:00.000-07:00

those of you had eye on stock trading but still not sure about spending money on stock monitor, you can check [a real] realtime stock quotes at http://www.rti.co.id it require you to install Java though, but for something that is realtime it’s free [just fill the frontpage box with stock ticker you need]. Yes, folks it’s for indonesian stocks (stocks lister at BEI/Indonesian Stock Exchange only).

You can also have [an almost] realtime quotes in Y!Finance make sure you ad [.jk] behind the stock quotes you require, for example bbni.jk for BNI’s stock quotes. Y!Finance is enough and nice if you are a long term investor, since in my opinion LT investor doesn’t require much of a [real] realtime stock quotes, plus Y!Finance gave you the amazing charting wizard that truly help with the decision making.

for those of you have a serious thought on trading stocks in Indonesia, you can try http://www.rti.co.id paid package, it’s not expensive the cheapest package come with the price less than IDR 100,000 [less than USD 10].

pity me that the monitor does available for me, but i lack money to invest…..hahahaha………

Bliss and Bless: Indonesian Economy vs US Subprime crisis

2008-10-05T19:48:00.000-07:00

Saving by Moslem's Holiday indonesian market did not experience any massive volatility caused by crisis in US. last night (05-10-2008 approx. 11 PM) I watch press release by Indonesian ministry of finance, ministry of economy and central bank. It's kinda to state that government has perfect insight of the crisis and fully aware of it's impact possibility upon indonesian economy.

Central Bank Governor Mr. Boediono stated that the crucial part of surviving the crisis was :

maintain a positive current account (by expanding export and limit import)
maintain a sustainable credit growth (current credit growth was 36% y-o-y, central bank sees that it needs to slow down to approx. 6% y-o-y, this policy most likely to anticipate liquidity squish caused by market conservatism upon the crisis).

as far i can understand, i'm fully agree with government about the current condition, we're still good to go but we should anticipate for contagion effect, in this case by fighting liquidity squish both for domestic currency (by limit credit expansion) and foreign currency (by promote export).

If you ask me what next, to be honest i do not know. Since that's all depends on the market now. Depends on the result of maintaining current account we will see up and down in rupiah's exchange rate that's for sure. And depends on the credit growth reform we will see (in my opinion) slowdown in economic growth. But how the swing up and down is completely up to the market to decide. Yes, please play safe these days, there are panic people out there, and it is a bliss and bless for us not to be panic (now).

Writing Contest : Article on Banking

2008-09-17T17:31:00.000-07:00

theme : Chances and Problem of Indonesian Banking Industry in the future.
sub theme : Strategy for banking industry to win the competition.

Discussion boundary : any aspect of management, technology, information, banking, marketing, human resource, capital market, risk management, service and product

Condition to meet :
- Contest open for public
- The writing is in Bahasa Indonesia
- The writing should be original and never made public in any media
- 8-14 pages of A4 paper, double line spacing, writing style : popular science, any text doesn't
meet technical condition will be disqualified.
- Sent to the committee at least at 30th of November 2008 both soft and hardcopy labeled
"Lomba Penulisan Artikel Bank & Management" in top left corner of the envelop.
- Any writing will be claimed as committee ownership and will be rewarded by cash if shown in
magazine.
- Winner will be announce at Banking and Management magazine at March-April edition
- Jury decision is absolute and not an object for question.

Prize :
1st winner 10.000.000 IDR
2nd winner 7.500.000 IDR
3rdwinner 5.000.000 IDR
4thwinner 3.000.000 IDR
5thwinner 2.000.000 IDR
6thwinner 1.000.000 IDR

Address for sending the writing :
Panitia Lomba Penulisan artikel Majalah Bank dan Manajemen
Divisi Pelatihan dan Pengembangan BNI
Gedung BNI Lt.4 Jl. Lada No. 1 Jakarta Kota 11110

Chances behind the issue of ITE Bill

2008-05-01T18:48:00.000-07:00

Just a few days ago, the ITE Bill got approved by our parliament (DPR), honestly speaking, the topics a bit out of our finance, economy and business topics range, but however indirectly this bill has change playing fields within our nation especially ICT context. you can find the bill here (in Bahasa Indonesia) and the discussion here.

By this bill government has acknowledge much more the important of ICT in Indonesia, and furthermore uphold rules in it, thus violation could be minimized. the implication further strengthen the law upholding process within ICT framework. some has fear that this bill will constrain the freedom that blogger once have. Under this bill you may aware of Fitna movie blocking by Indonesian government few weeks ago.

Within Economy and Business context you may aware that now government require a resgistration of ICT based transaction guarantor such as verisign. in my opinion this would encourage investor to establish such company in Indonesia rather than rely on overseas establishment.

Indonesia’s War Against Poverty

2008-04-22T11:25:00.000-07:00

the title above taken from Juwono Sudarsono's writing in his blog. a truly remarkable person yet he is indonesian minister of defense.

the article come with great statistic data upon indonesian welfare condition, and what indonesian has been doing upon poverty eradication. And also as epilogue he write that any element of indonesian citizen could take part in this movement, he take an example of what indonesian army has been done.

this is the article;

since this is blog on indonesian economics so the emphasize was on welfare numbers, but still i couldn't skip the temptation to present to you the indonesian army's website, it's in Bahasa Indonesia though.

bullish on oil price, bearish on welfare ?

2008-04-19T18:11:00.001-07:00

scared was more reliable word to describe my feeling, today in detikfinance i've read that for 1st time in history oil has reach USD 117 per barrel. it was way too expensive. And my worries has risen since indonesian government has policy to subsidized it's retail gasoline consumption. I check the gasoline pump near my house and shocked that the non-subsidized gasoline Pertamax sells at IDR 8600, which is almost twice as the subsidized gasoline Premium (sells at IRD 4500).

What this would mean? This would mean that government spending on gasoline subsidy will increase also, leaving other development program unfinanced. and though the broad consumed Premium subsidized, it is another story for industry-oriented gasoline. The gasoline increase means increase in the price of energy, for some who processed natural oil derivatives product (plastics, etc) this also mean increase in raw material.

Government has launch conversion program, for kerosene (used as cooking fuel in indonesian households) converted to natural gas, the conversion wasn't a smooth one, in many cases the kerosene supply stopped before natural gas pack available on market, leaving most people unable to cook, not to mention that rumors has a telling that cooking pad which given by government has a lack of safety and causing several serious fire blaze (they say there is problem with parts that channeling gas from its pack to a cooking pad). Though not perfectly launch i still have support on this programs, do you know that actually kerosene produced using the same oil fracture as airplane fuel?

Some opinion has come up that government should rise the Premium price to release heavy burden on government budget. While I personally quite worry if government rise Premium Price (since this will affect people's pocket much more direct), i can see the urgencies. But however the issue quite sensitive here, we can hear almost everyday "expert" say that government should increase the price of Premium, while other said exactly the opposite. For the ruling government this could also affect their popularity and determine their position in the next election (will held at 2009).

For me, should i retire my car instead .....??

The Poor's Bank

2008-04-12T18:05:00.000-07:00

This post translated from ruli_pribadi@yahoo.com post on PAS-ITB mailing list, the article posted here using explicit permission from the writer.

Approximately 100 years ago, man seek method to flying the sky. Many has doubt on this dream, some thought they were bunch of nuts. But however, in the year of 1903, Wright brothers has flew their first airplane, it only flew for 12 second for 120 feet distance, this is the seed of hope that world will change to a better place, and it was only 65 years later that 1st human arrive on the moon. (Muhammad Yunus Speech in the Micro Credit Summit 1997)

Just a century ago, man assumed going to space was impossible. But these days, in this very 21st Century we witness how the edge of possibility has change. We might have had flew the sky furthermore the space and deny the impossibility of the idea, however the adge of possibility here beneath the sky in our own earth still likely to be the same, we always taught that poverty was absolute, something unchangeable, then we are comforted to believe that without further search.

In a country where social welfare seems to be an imposibility; in a country where woman classified as marginal citizen, overwhelming starvation, political instability exist due to frequent coup d'etat and natural disaster happen so often a phenomenal banking institution had been created, a seed of revolutionary school of thought in combating poverty across the earth.

Muhammad Yunus, a professor in Economics was disturbed by economic study that justify the presence of poverty caused by people unwillingness to be productive; in his search, he found that poverty in Bangladesh primarily caused by nonavailability of people access towards economic assets. Poorest people of Bangladesh always marginalized by banking system; labeled as a non-bankable group, chained by religiousity and old custom; help by government or world institution rarely get into their hand.

The poor which physically weak does not require a donation, for donation only increase their burden, take their incentif and rape their pride, Yunus has found that within everybody’s will there is enterpreneurship available to be valued. The poor survivability was an undeniable proof that they still have willingness to strife, Yunus has proven that beggar, small enterpreneur, house mother has a competency for being a succesful enterpreneur.

Grameen Bank launch a micro credit for the poorest and for they who have willingness to improve their life quality. The credit scheme was given to a group of people, for they can cheer one another. For this scheme, Yunus claim that micro credit not a naif altruistic action, but they have a profit reasoning, NPL for micro credit only accounted for 2%, far superior to investment credit that usually consist of 3-4% NPL.

For 25 year since its establishment Greemen Bank always account a profit balance, this became a proof that the poor also credible for credit stream.

By witnessing this unprecedented fight against poverty, is it not that we reflect upon our own nation, is there anything we could do about it?

Maybank plans expansion on Indonesia

2008-04-06T11:45:00.000-07:00

it's a video from youtube about Maybank plans for BII acquisition (former majority stockholder is Temasek holding from Singapore).

:: sub prime mortgage and Indonesia

2008-04-01T23:39:00.001-07:00

Sid H. Kusuma as published by detikFinance write a comprehensive resume on Sub prime Mortgage in US economy.

For the rest of you who didn't familiar with the topics, let's start with the linguistic terms. To put it simple, Sub prime Mortgage is a mortgage given to a sub prime debtor. in US, mortgage debtor was also rated (that's not happen in Indonesia). The credit firm heavily depend on 3rd party scoring company to classify the fitness of any mortgage application. there is FICO method for example, it give mortgage score of 300 to 850 on account of [1] Payment history 35% [2] Amount Owed 30% [3] Length of Credit History 15% [4] New credit 10% and [5] Type of Credit Used. Sub prime debtor is a debtor with FICO rate less than 620.

Sub prime debtor is a high risk debtor, to overcome this matter credit firm then compensates the high risk profile with higher interest rate as insurance of credit stream in accordance to higher risk higher return philosophy. High interest rate however is hard to sell, since people within sub prime area had less money to pay the interest rate, to overcome this, then credit company develop a product that is affordable by sub prime debtor at least in the earlier year of debtor payment period. The most famous scheme for sub prime mortgage in US is 2/28 ARM scheme in which 75% of Sub prime Mortgage originated, it has 2 years of lower (read: teaser) rate then after 2 years it become adjustable rate.

Problem with sub prime mortgage happen after the teaser period or the 'helping part' is over. Since the idea of teaser period was giving debtor opportunity to increase the quality of their financial performance so they could coup with the interest rate of their mortgage. But, what will happen if their financial strength didn’t get any better? This is the cause of Sub prime Mortgage crisis in US. After certain period of time, the credit quality plummeted, because debtor cannot pay their increasing installment.

The complexity of US economic allows this crisis to be delivered through contagion effect to overall country’s economic condition.

Indonesia not directly affected by this crisis since no Indonesian firm have significant investment on this sub prime mortgage and no Indonesian firm have significant investment on any company affected by the crisis.

But however, the crisis affect Indonesia too, the extraordinary volatility of exchange rate and stock market showing that Indonesian market not immune from the crisis’ contagious effect. Notably, Drajad Wibowo, a legislator at DPR (Indonesian parliament) have comment on sub prime crisis effect upon Indonesian economy that Indonesian economic growth would be lower than it is as predicted by Indonesian government. He said that government prediction of 6,8% of economic growth seems to be impossible, it is appropriate to say that Indonesian economic growth in 2008 only on 6,1% figure.

It is very reasonable for Dradjat Wibowo to say such opinion, since US as world largest consumer basis also consume Indonesian product. By the crisis, inflation are high, rates increase will slow people consumption in US, and if consumption is slow, demand for Indonesian product will be slower too.

:: For fun - Bear Stearns Rhapsody

2008-03-24T02:59:00.001-07:00

It's not something about Indonesia,but still this post is something interesting to be shared. I found this post on Ahli Keuangan mailing list. For my introduction,it is about Bear Sterns having bought at cheap price by JP Morgan.

Bear Stearns Rhapsody
(using Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody tune)

Is this the real price?
Is this just fantasy?
Financial landslide
No escape from reality

Open your eyes
And look at your buys and see.
I'm now a poor boy (poor boy)
High-yielding casualty
Because I bought it high, watched it blow
Rating high, value low
Any way the Fed goes
Doesn't really matter to me, to me

Mama - just killed my fund
Quoted CDO's instead
Pulled the trigger, now it's dead
Mama - I had just begun
These CDO's have blown it all away
Mama - oooh-hoo-ooo
I still wanna buy
I sometimes wish I'd never left Goldman at all.

(guitar solo)

~~~

I see a little silhouette of a Fed
Bernanke! Bernanke! Can you save the whole market?
Monolines and munis - very very frightening me!
Super senior, super senior
Super senior CDO - magnifico

I'm long of subprime, nobody loves me
He's long of subprime CDO fantasy
Spare the margin call you monstrous PB!
Easy come easy go, will you let me go?
Peloton! No - we will not let you go - let him go
Peloton! We will not let you go
(let him go !)
Peloton! We will not let you go - let me go
Will not let you go
let me go (never) Never let you go - let me go Never let me go - ooo
No, no, no, no, No, NO, NO ! -
Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia let me go
S&P had the devil put aside
for me
For me, for me, for me

~~~

So you think you can fund me and spit in my eye?
And then margin call me and leave me to die Oh PB - can't do this to me
Just gotta get out - just gotta get right outta here

Ooh yeah, ooh yeah
No price really matters
No liquidity
Nothing really matters - no price really matters to me
Any way the Fed goes.....

:: ID Government debt via ORI v.4

2008-03-19T00:06:00.001-07:00

Debt capability for any enitity either individual nor organization is relative. The simplest example if any of you applying credit card. Some of you will get silver card while other got gold or platinum card, some of you got IDR 4 Mil (about $400) limit while other got IDR 150 Mil (about $15.000) limit. What difference among the applicants that takes into account? To put it simple it was the illusion of repaying capabilities, not the repaying capabilities itself. Statistics you put on the application form will create illusion of your repaying capabilities on the analyst head.

Furthermore, it is exactly the same in the macro level application. The illution in which we ofthen say sovereign credibility is the main item that analyst put into account. If your country on war then your repaying capability would be assumed close to nothing, when your country got a grip on bullish commodities then it's repaying capability would be high. In micro level, i have conducting some analysis about this and has proven, this also happen within enterprise level.The more confidence (not capable) you are, the more aggressive your leverage policy.

Now let say illusion that been performed these days by Indonesian were the uprising price of it's main commodity (nickel, lead, CPO, etc) then it is sufficient for us to say that government still and will more confidence upon the economy in the future, thus ID Government will tend to increase it's debt.

is it good/bad?

there are 2 different opinion on this,

in the long run things are getting better, debt will increase country economic capability and will decrease it's need of finance through debt. (the problem is according to my opinion earlier, the bigger the country's economic capability the more confidence it's government and the more tendency to increase it's debt. This will snowballing 'til something get wrong)
how long is the long run? is it not to account the debt's interest as short term liability, if we continue to increase our debt, is it not increasing the repayment risk?

IMHO, it's all about balance. Balance in this context not define as one point all-problem-solved things. But balance that vary from one entity to other. And yes, we should use the momentum of bullish commodity price to increase our confidence; but still the key point is, the debt we acquire should be able increasing our economic capacity, and we should take into account our repayment capacity.

Now, about ORI (Obligasi Ritel Indonesia/Indonesia Retail Bond); this instrument was created in the circumstances of increasing dollar price,thus issuing bond in dollar might increase risk; this instrument basically is 5 year's bond in small figure nominal, the smallest fracture could be IDR 5 Million(about $500), with the bearish tendency on our key interest rate (which is good!) people seeking alternative to normal time-deposit in bank, while this instrument offering 2-3 percent incentive above normal time-deposit account in banks (ORI 1 gave 12,5% coupon, ORI2 gave about 10% coupon, ORI3 gave 9,25% Coupon, ORI4 will give 9,5% coupon). The issuance of retail bond give ID Gov. several advantage that :

Spread risk, since the fracture size small the bondholder expected to be high. Though in my opinion this advantage would be weaken once the bond entering secondary market.
Decreasing financial dependency on overseas bond

Being a muslim dominated country, however the ORI issuance raise some skepticism among people, since bond, an interest bearing liability (or in Islam called riba') are not allowed. I'm not in any judging position on the religion-context, thus i still say that, what i explained earlier in this post would be my stand point. It's all about ballance. And i'm quite confidence about the way the recent government handling ID businesses environment and furthermore ID economy (which is most likely not corrupt nor reckless).

:: the closing of Adam Air

2008-03-19T00:04:00.001-07:00

To be frank, i hate Adam Air,the management to be precise. It's misconduct for flight safety (search Google for PPRuNe forum then look for Adam Air topics), the infamous ground handling, and foremost it's conspiracy that i presumed there is.

Being a mid-level income people, yes i do thank for the presence of LCC in Indonesia. Garuda, the full-serviced airline price surely will kill my saving account. But it is not like that i will gave my life upon the price (these point is debatable for Indonesian LOL). Now for Adam Air topics, there is some point's i'd like to strengthen about it's closing.

[analyst mode : on]
1st of all, i'd like to say that, my feeling gave me the chill that there is some ill purpose on Adam Air closing. To put is simple it was :

First Lie, in it's management press release. AA Management gave a statement that this closing was due to bhakti investama (50% shareholder) went out of Adam. This is in my opinion was truly a lie. Being a 50% shareholder mean that bhakti does not own majority in stock ownership, mean that bhakti could not easily take it's investment out of a running company like a finger snap, bhakti could sell it's ownership (which is not happen) to claim it's money. The proper statement to be announce should be bhakti did not agree to inject fresh money into the company. Bhakti said, this was due to AA lack of financial disclosure, that is suspicious (bhakti said that they have evidence some cash missing from the cash account).
Second conspiracy, is there anyone notice why AA choose to announce its closing around tha peak hour (there is 4 days holiday near its closing). I presume they want to cash out as many as they can from pre-order, pre-payment ticket. And do we notice that they have some unpaid liability about insurance, airport payment and plane fuel, which sum up to be near IDR 200 Bill (about $20 Mill), is this figure a 5 fivedays liability or this airline has plan this closing (read:cashout) carefully?

This topics is truly interesting that it is giving me some desire to do analysis on its financial statement. pity then, since it is not a public company then it's financial statement not release to public. But.......is there anyone out there able to giving me the fun (read : financial statement), please contact me in person.

opinion :: price hiking in Indonesia

2008-03-02T14:07:00.001-08:00

Just this weekend me and my family go shopping for our routine consumables. Usually it cost about somewhere between 250K to 300K IDR for 2 weeks consumables consist of my baby's consumables (diaper, milk, cotton balls, etc) and few goods for me and wife, But at that time it cost me nearly 500K IDR for my usual stuff. It worry me so i collect few fact on Indonesia's Inflation.

Judging from the trend it is obvious that we experiencing a sharp rising in inflation, not that spiral inflation high or one-shot inflation high like it is in the past, but still it's a price hike. You can fetch the inflation detail here it's in Bahasa thought, so here is the summary of it as of January 2008 :

Food 2,77 percent,
Processed Food, Cigarette and Tobacco 2,02 percent,
Housing, water, electricity, oil and gas 1,80 percent,
Cloth 2,31 percent,
Health 0,72 percent,
Education, Recreation and Sport 0,01 percent
Financial Service, Transportation and Communication 0,24 percent.

And now for the worst part of this log. I just found that in accordance to the inflation fact, Central bank has expected to raise the interest rate. This would mean a slowdown in our economy since ID's economy still recovering from 1998's crisis that LDR is plummeted to lower than 50%, These days we experience a relatively high growth for fact that lower rate had lure more businessman expand their business using the bank's money (debt).