Finance: The NZ dollar firmed against the US $ & the Euro over the week but is struggling against the Australian $ being well down on recent years. Brent Crude has eased. It is currently $90.74/barrel, but ranges over the day varying up to $US10 in a 24 hr period.

Wool: The wool prices continue to firm with the growing optimism in the coarse wool market.

Beef, Sheep & Venison schedules: The meat schedules are steady for the coming week & there is good grass cover across most of the country. Yard prices are strong and especially strong for well-presented stock.

Dairy Prices. The farmers are cautiously optimistic anticipating a $10/kg payout for the 25/26 season and expecting at least $10 for the 26/27 season. The Iranian war is causing some concern as a lot of product goes to the Middle East via the Persian Gulf & the Red Sea.

The Fonterra suppliers have received some large payments over the last week & the community are using the “Rich Farmers” label again. Make sure it is used wisely and debt reduction must be high on the list as the lesser debt becomes a gift that “keeps on giving” The annual interest savings can go on for years adding to the bottom line each year.

Jim’s Weekly Rant:

I was preparing a similar piece when I found this & there was no way I could write it as well as written here!!!

Bruce Cotteril’s piece in the NZ herald on 11th April is a must read. I have copied it below

Oil crisis: Why New Zealand needs a ‘kamikaze Cabinet’ to fix the economy by Bruce Cotterill | Apr 13, 2026

We’re getting ourselves quite worked up about oil prices. And it’s probably fair.

Despite three decades of climate mumbo jumbo warning us that we need to abandon fossil fuels for the sake of the planet, the events of the last few weeks have highlighted that we’ve made little such progress and we are still heavily reliant on the black stuff. We’ve seen a little bit of panic buying, thankfully not too much. The odd gas station has run out. But it hasn’t been too bad. The national airline is cutting flights and ferry services have been curtailed. I heard this week that an earthmoving firm had parked up their machines. Not because they’ve run out of work. But because the price of diesel makes running them uneconomical for the time being.

Donald Trump’s on-again off-again approach to the war in the Middle East is creating massive uncertainty across the world. The financial markets are experiencing substantive swings, after – and sometimes before – every announcement. Entire economies are hanging on every press conference. Even our bulletproof mates across the ditch are looking wobbly.

For us, the timing couldn’t be worse. But the can-do has seemingly become the can’t do. And we’ve run out of places to hide. Our national balance sheet is overburdened by debt. When times were good we underinvested in infrastructure and the result is that our bridges, roads and hospitals are all less than we need. Our exchange rate will tell you that our purchasing power in the international marketplace is at least 20% less than it was just a few short years ago. It’s great for our exporters. But it’s a double whammy when you’re buying increasingly expensive oil with a weak dollar.

What we didn’t need was an oil crisis. Not now.

It’s easy to blame Trump. Perhaps you’d prefer to blame Israel. But that’s not going to help us.

Here’s the thing that no one is talking about. The oil crisis has brought a stark realisation into the sharpest of focus. It has highlighted just how ill-equipped New Zealand has become. So we need to help ourselves. We need to build resilience in our economy where there is currently none. Helping ourselves means making some tough decisions. We’ve proven not to be good at that. As former Government minister Nick Smith recently said in a Facebook post, “Government is easy and fun when the coffers are full and there are the funds to expand services or take less in taxes.” But the coffers aren’t full. The debt is too high. The tax grab is already as high as people can afford. And right now, being in government isn’t easy anywhere. Our problems start with the size of our Government. Simply put, it is costing us too much to run the country. Here’s a couple of facts. For the year ended June 30, 2024, New Zealand’s total government expenditure reached $180.1 billion, or 44% of GDP. On the other side of our nation’s profit and loss, the total tax collections hit $115.4b or 28%.

It’s not that we’re collecting too little tax. The problem is that we’re spending too much money. That shortfall is primarily met by increasing debt. In a sense we’re no different to a struggling small business or even a household. We have two choices. Increase revenue or cut spending. To be fair, the current Government sees this and they’ve focused on growing the economy. As positive as it is to hear the Prime Ministerial passion for “growing the size of the pie” through better trade outcomes and increased productivity, that takes time and it’s likely not enough. Besides, it’s no good growing the income if all the additional revenues go down the drain labelled “wasted government spending”. Simply put, if we are going to rebuild the resilience in the economy, in a reasonable timeframe, we have to get the national cost base down to a level that enables us to deliver surpluses, repay some debt, and start investing again. There’s an old saying that’s trotted out whenever there’s major economic upheaval. It says “never waste a crisis”. If ever there was a time for that saying to become a mission, this is it.

Kamikaze Cabinet

We need a kamikaze Cabinet. A collection of highly capable Government ministers who care more about fixing the place than they do their re-election chances. Because we need optimal decisions, rather than decision-making on the back of the politics of compromise. A kamikaze Cabinet should only need three years and some clear plans. Here’s a few ideas to get them started.

The last time I looked we had 41 government departments. Singapore has 16. We have 78 government portfolios. We have to take a knife to the bureaucracy. Why not aim to cut 20% of our total government servants? Given that the last Labour-led Government put 16,000 additional people on, that should be achievable. We should aim to do so without impacting frontline education, healthcare or police workers and instead look to the nation’s back offices for savings. Look for technology and AI solutions to assist with productivity of those who remain. While we’re at it we should freeze government salaries for three years. This week’s release of the Taxpayers’ Union Bureaucrat Salary Leaderboard showed that public service salaries have increased by 21.4% over the last five years. Those salaries now run at $17,600 per year more than people in the private sector. It might sound harsh, but you have to remember something: we’re broke! Our government debt is growing by almost $60 million per day. Sooner or later someone has to stop the rot. When you drop people, you’ll also drop the costs they carry. Office rental is a massive cost. That goes down if you have fewer people. Flights is a big one. Meetings and associated catering is another. Meetings shouldn’t require more than eight people and they don’t always need coffee and morning tea. Meetings with 20 people or more are not meetings; they’re communication forums. They don’t need coffee or catering either. While we’re at it, we can’t afford to spend money on kūmara patches, whale noises or singing lessons for government employees either. Our kamikaze Cabinet should also do the stuff that countless governments have been afraid to do. The retirement age is one. From Treasury to those international credit agencies we increasingly fear, most observers will tell us that we can’t afford to continue with a retirement age of 65. We need to progressively push it up by two years every decade for the next 40 years. We’ll get a few grizzles, but our kids will have better futures as a result. Fortunately we’re a country that people want to come to. But we need to sort out immigration. The key focus should be on bringing in people whom we need, rather than people who want to come here. It should be a simple fix. But it needs someone with the nerve to make the call. And by the way, we need every Kiwi, including companies, trusts and tribes to pay their way. No more tax-free status or rates relief. We need all hands on deck. In fact, there are only two groups of people who shouldn’t be asked to front up. There are those who genuinely can’t help themselves. We have an obligation to do the best we can for those people. Secondly, retirees have paid their dues and many will rightly think that their lifetime of hard work should leave them better rewarded than they are. Elsewhere we need every person on board. Helping. Contributing. Capacity. Productivity. Cost reduction. Efficiency. Resilience. These should be the words we hear from our politicians in the lead-up to the election. But we won’t. Our current Government is slowly making progress. But I wish they were bolder. Those in Opposition have already decided that, if elected, they will return to borrowing, increasing taxes and spending more. You can probably guess how that will turn out. Sooner or later we have to stop digging the hole!

New Zealand's gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.1 percent in the September 2025 quarter, following a 1.0 percent decrease in the June 2025 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

"GDP rose in three of the last four quarters, but fell 0.5 percent over the year ended September 2025 compared with the year ended September 2024," economic growth spokesperson Jason Attewell said.

"The 1.1 percent rise in economic activity in the September 2025 quarter was broad-based, with increases in 14 out of 16 industries. This is in contrast to the June 2025 quarter, when GDP decreased in 10 industries."

• Economy in recovery mode after last year's recession.
• Kiwi are spending more, and exports are holding strong.
• Lower interest rates mean better times ahead for households and first‑home buyers.

After a bumpy ride through last year's recession New Zealand's economy is finally turning a corner, according to ASB's latest Economic Forecast.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says with green shoots of growth emerging, Kiwi can look forward to a brighter 2026, fuelled by lower interest rates, resilient exports, and a renewed willingness to spend.

"We're seeing clear signs that the recovery is gathering pace. Consumer spending is up, especially on big-ticket items like cars and electronics, and rural incomes are holding strong despite global uncertainty. With interest rates at their lowest in years, more New Zealanders are set to benefit as mortgages refix at better rates."

Despite persistent global trade challenges and tariffs, New Zealand's exports – particularly beef and dairy – have continued to thrive, showing impressive resilience and strength.

"Around a quarter of our US‑bound exports are now exempt from the added 15% tariff, and we're seeing strong growth in markets like China and Europe," says Tuffley. Tourism is also rebounding, with visitor numbers back to 88% of pre‑Covid levels.

The housing market is expected to pick up speed in 2026, with first‑home buyers in a particularly strong position thanks to lower interest rates and plenty of choice. "We anticipate modest price growth of around 3–4%, as confidence returns and employment growth lifts household earnings," Nick notes.

"Inflation rebounded to 3% in the third quarter of 2025, but further softening is expected as wage growth slows and spare capacity in the economy keeps price pressures in check. The Reserve Bank's recent cuts to the Official Cash Rate are expected to hold, with the risk of further easing if recovery falters."

With the worst seemingly behind us, ASB forecasts annual growth of over 2.5% in 2026. "The chapter of 'bad news' is closing, and Kiwi can look forward to a year of renewed momentum," says Nick. "It's time to enjoy a smoother ride after the potholes of the past year."

The latest ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast, along with other recent ASB reports covering a range of commentary, can be accessed at the ASB Economic Insights page: https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-insights.html

BusinessNZ's latest Planning Forecast shows the economy finally emerging from stagnation and GDP projected to grow at just under 3% per year to 2027, with improving momentum across manufacturing, construction, and tourism.

BusinessNZ Chief Economist John Pask says the recovery is welcome, but New Zealand is heading into a decade of difficult choices.

"While the outlook to 2027 is brighter, there are several major structural risks which are currently accelerating. An ageing population is set to drive superannuation and healthcare costs to unsustainable levels. Without reform, those two items alone could consume all income tax revenue by the late 2040s.

"At the same time, government debt has tripled since 2019 and continues to rise. We cannot borrow our way out of demographic reality.

"Difficult choices will need to be made, including mature thinking on the potential for asset recycling and greater competition in the delivery of government sanctioned services, such as ACC."

Pask says that overall, business confidence is rising with most sectors showing signs of improvement - if a little uneven.

"On the bright side, our construction sector is looking up, agriculture continues to do well and tourism is rebounding as international visitor numbers return to pre‑Covid levels.

"If New Zealand wants to avoid a major deterioration in living standards, then improving productivity, maintaining regulatory discipline, and attracting investment will be essential."

The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index (ECI) for the December 2025 quarter sits at 13, which is up nine on the previous quarter, and up two on a year ago. The ECI is a measure of some of NZ's key economic indicators. An ECI of reading above 0 indicates general economic conditions are improving overall, while below 0 means economic conditions are generally declining.

The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast for the December 2025 quarter is available now on the BusinessNZ website.

The total volume of retail sales in New Zealand increased by $472 million (1.9 percent) in the September 2025 quarter compared with the June 2025 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

Figures are adjusted for price inflation and seasonal effects.

"Retail activity recorded an increase in the September quarter, with growth in most industries, this is the largest increase in activity since December 2021," economic indicators spokesperson Michelle Feyen said.

"Motor vehicle and electrical and electronic goods retailing saw the largest increases this quarter."

Eight of the 15 retail industries had higher sales volumes in the September 2025 quarter, compared with the June 2025 quarter.

Responding to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points, Taxpayers' Union spokesman James Ross said:

"With the economy grinding to a halt, calls to bring the OCR down below 2.5 percent have been growing. New Zealand isn't in a normal dip in the cycle."

"This is a drawn‑out recession that needs both monetary and fiscal action. The Bank had previously been slow to recognise that, and the Government has kept spending at levels that continue to fuel inflation. Now, at least, the Reserve Bank has finally accepted New Zealand's economic reality and lowered the OCR further."

"But the OCR cut isn't enough on its own. Taxpayers' Union–Curia polling last month found 58 percent of New Zealanders want Nicola Willis to cut low‑priority spending, with just 11 percent opposed. Yet Government spending as a share of the economy is still higher than when Grant Robertson left office. Overspending is keeping inflation sticky and stopping the deeper OCR cuts needed to get the economy moving again."

"We're now seeing the effects of high spending, weak growth, and inflationary pressure piling on top of each other. If the Minister of Finance wants to relieve the pressure, she needs to do what she was elected to do and start cutting the waste."

"Another cut to the official cash rate means more money in the pocket for households, but let's not take it for granted," says ACT Leader David Seymour.

"Mortgage rates are down because inflation is under control. And inflation is under control because this Government has, for two years, applied some basic discipline to its spending.

"We started with inflation at 5.6 per cent, the OCR at 5.5, and mortgage rates above seven. Since then, ACT has led the effort to turn things around, cutting wasteful spending, negotiating down the price of our coalition partners' policies, and pushing back on proposals to borrow and bribe.

"For now, we've broken the spending addiction, but an election year risks sending us into a relapse.

"The parties that borrowed $115 billion and left us with nothing but inflation will try to bribe their way back into government. Their whole election strategy hinges on voters having short memories.

"When Labour and the Greens make spending promises, that puts pressure on other parties to offer expensive goodies of their own. And every debt-funded spending promise is a promise to put hard-won relief at risk.

"ACT, however, will hold the line. Our basic view is that government should be as responsible with taxpayer money as the households paying the bills are.

"If we want to keep mortgage rates and prices down, we must spend wisely."

Where to for globalisation: cooperation, competition, or collapse? World‑leading thinkers are exploring what comes next at the first‑ever International Economics Workshop in Auckland.

As political allies shift, supply chains reorganise, and major powers butt heads, the University of Auckland is bringing some of the world's most influential economic thinkers to New Zealand to examine what comes next.

On 4 December, two events will feature global heavyweights tackling the big questions shaping trade, finance, and geoeconomics, and what it all means for Aotearoa New Zealand.

The inaugural University of Auckland International Economics Workshop will explore the geoeconomics of the new world order, strategic industrial policy, macro‑financial spillovers, and the geopolitics of trade, climate, and critical minerals.

Among the speakers is Harvard University's Professor Pol Antràs, one of the world's most cited authorities on global supply chains and trade fragmentation, and Professor Stephen Redding, an authority on trade and uncertainty. They're joined by experts including former New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor Dr Alan Bollard and former Chief Economist at the Bank of England, now Chief Economic Adviser at PwC, Andy Haldane.

In the evening, the event Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Challenges and Opportunities, will feature Harvard Business School Professor Laura Alfaro, a globally recognised expert on international investment and former Minister of National Planning in Costa Rica. She's joined by Haldane, and Business School economics professor and member of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, Prasanna Gai, for an in‑depth conversation about the forces reshaping inclusive growth, financial stability, and cross‑border spillovers.

Gai says the two events create a rare opportunity to hear directly from the thought leaders shaping global debates.

"Globalisation is changing in fundamental ways," he says. "These conversations will help us better anticipate risks, adapt policy, and identify where our comparative advantages will lie."

In recent research, Professor Antràs shows that multinationals don't just trade with the countries where they have affiliates — they also trade heavily with nearby markets, because sharing fixed costs across their global plants creates deep interdependencies that can magnify the geopolitical spillovers of trade policy. For New Zealand, a small, trade‑dependent nation, this shift poses risks and opportunities.

Higher tariffs, US policy swings, and ongoing fractures in global governance all point to a more challenging environment for exporters.

When it comes to trade, climate and migration, University of Auckland Associate Professor Asha Sundaram says she's looking forward to discussing how globalisation will interact with the rising influence of emerging markets in the world economic order, and the challenges and opportunities that climate change, the race for critical minerals and growing talent flows across borders will engender.

Workshop co‑organiser and University of Auckland economics lecturer Chanelle Duley is chairing a panel discussion on trade policy and macroeconomics. She says firms are now at the centre of the story.

"While outsourcing was commonplace in the early stages of globalisation, firms are increasingly expanding their boundaries to secure reliable access to upstream goods as geopolitical tensions and uncertainty intensify."

These shifts, says Duley, are creating new cross‑jurisdictional interdependencies, with important macroeconomic implications for countries like New Zealand.

Finance: The NZ dollar remained steady over the week but has continued to weaken &while it is good for exporters, it is tough on importers. Brent Crude is steady around and below the $US65/barrel.

Wool: The wool prices are firming. There is strong demand from China.

Beef, Sheep & Venison schedules: The meat schedules are steady with strong demand for red meat internationally. US sheep farmers are concerned about the supply of lamb from NZ & Australia. The strong schedules are pushing domestic meat prices up.

Dairy Prices. Dairy prices have eased over recent week. The “Pulse-Auction” is continuing a downward trend and it is expected the g/DT this coming week will record a further easing in that will put real pressure on Fonterra to lower its forecast FGMP.

It is important to get your pastures ready for the summer. Ryegrass wants to flower & during the flowering process the quality declines. Topping will push the flowering process forward and maintain the quality longer but make sure the topping does not leave bare ground exposed during the summer period. I usually recommend that topping stops around 10th December.

You can hear us live on the radio on Monday morning at 7.35 am with Brian Kelly on Country Sport Breakfast – Radio NZ Gold AM. 792 AM in the Waikato & 1332 AM in Auckland.

Jim’s Weekly Rant:

New Zealand is failing and functioning with two economies. The rural economy, which is moving along well with strong demand for the dairy commodities and red meats and even wool is showing a resurgence. The other economy is for everyone else and there are many who are struggling with limited discretionary money available, and that’s going to be tough as Christmas approaches. The hospitality industry is struggling and the furniture and whiteware sales are reported as being low. New Zealand has moved from being one of the most prosperous economies in the OECD 40 plus aga to one of the poorer performing economies and are ranked 50th on the world Economic Complexity Index. The country needs to make a fundamental change if we want to become a wealthy country again. A country cannot become wealthy backed by an internal investment in residential housing which is where most New Zealanders measure their wealth, it is like building a house on sand. We need to look at what a politically stable vibrant economy is and give us something to aspire to. This is NZ now: 60% of our exports are rural based with 25% of all exports coming from dairying and 26% of the exported dairy commodities go to China. Dairy exports total +$18b. Meat sales are 12% at $8.46b, Forestry is $5b, seafood is $2.5b and horticulture is $3.5b or 5% of all exports. The forestry exports are the log sales where they are processed overseas and then the resultant products are imported back into NZ. The high-tech exports are 13% and are low in relation to other developed countries. Gold and other precious minerals are mined in NZ and sent overseas for processing as our environmental requirements are too tough. The innovative use of our commodities is all done off-shore and that is where the wealth stays and we just need to look at the sale of the Fonterra Brands to Lactalis and Alliance Meats to Dawn Meats in Ireland. To compare the NZ housing industry against productive industries will show housing is about 11% of GDP and it creates an illusional wealth as housing is not a productive asset. Housing values have increased by 130% over the last 20 years. The average house price in NZ is 8.8-times the gross medium income while the international standard is 3-times. New Zealanders invest in unproductive housing while the countries with strong economies invest in innovation and business development. The NZ investment in research and development is 1.4% of GDP while the OECD average is 2.7%. in simple terms, low investment in research and development is symptomatic of low economic growth. We export people who take their wealth and innovation with them while at the same time we import labuorer’s with limited capital or the wealthy retired immigrants whose innovative and productive enterprises remain off-shore. High wages and high power charges are problematic for NZ industries. There is an aging and shrinking workforce with 18% of our population being over 65 years old and the pensioners are also living longer so the welfare costs continue to increase. Our obesity is the third worst in the world and that adds to the social costs with over 400,000 people relying on some form of welfare. Our education system has been a failure. The HSBC recorded NZ as the worst performing economy in 2024. The labour productivity index in NZ is 0.3% while the OECD average is 1.5%. In simple terms, New Zealand is failing. These are the statistics we need to consider as we look for ways to make NZ great again!!.

Contact AgSafe NZ Ltd - Phone 027-2872886. We can prepare your Work Safe manual and hazard management plan at a very competitive price. We can arrange drug tests and farm maps for your property.
 

ASB economists say the proposed sale of Fonterra’s Anchor and Mainland brands could unlock around $4.5 billion in additional spending as any sales proceeds flow through the New Zealand economy, with nearly half ($2.2 billion) going to three key sectors: manufacturing, retail/accommodation, and real estate.

Fonterra’s proposed sale of its Anchor and Mainland brands to Lactalis is expected to deliver a tax-free capital return of approximately $3.2 billion to around 8,000 shareholding farms. If the sale goes ahead, following a vote by shareholders this month, it will come into effect in early 2026, subject to regulatory approval.

Commenting on an Economic Note by Wes Tanuvasa released today, ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says Fonterra’s capital return would represent a meaningful financial uplift for dairy farmers. “The average return would be around $392,000 if the sale goes ahead, and we estimate around 60% of shareholding farms could receive at least $200,000.”

“This capital injection is expected to energise key sectors - particularly manufacturing, retail, accommodation, and real estate - supporting local businesses and communities.

“While many farmers are likely to save or pay down debt to some extent, their investment in cost-saving upgrades and equipment is expected to indirectly lift demand in these sectors. For example, investment in new equipment or infrastructure can stimulate manufacturing, while increased financial confidence may support local retail and property markets.”

Nick adds: “This capital return would be a welcome tailwind for farmers, offering a timely boost to confidence and investment. While it may not single-handedly drive a broader economic recovery, it strengthens the foundation for growth in key sectors.”

The proposed capital return comes at a time when dairy incomes remain robust. Strong global demand and resilient commodity prices are expected to keep dairy farm profitability high in the year ahead, with rural areas generally outperforming urban centres.

The note also highlights that Fonterra’s strategic shift back to a commodity focus brings both opportunities and risks, including greater vulnerability to global trade shifts and changing consumer preferences, particularly in developed markets.

Food prices increased 5.0 percent in the 12 months to August 2025, the same increase as in the 12 months to July 2025, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

Higher prices for the grocery food group, up 4.7 percent, contributed most to the annual increase in food prices. 

The price increase for the grocery food group was due to higher prices for milk, cheese, and butter. 

The average price for: 

milk was $4.72 per 2 litres, up 16.3 percent annually 
cheese was $12.89 per 1 kilogram block, up 26.2 percent annually 
butter was $8.58 per 500 grams, up 31.8 percent annually. 

Many low income households across Aotearoa are now living below the income floor, with increasingly fewer households able to cover the bare essentials, according to new research released today by Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG).

The research builds on modelling by the Welfare Expert Advisory Group (WEAG) and extends it to cover varying levels of income and expenses across 39 different household types over eight years, revealing that the vast majority remain in persistent and growing deficits.

These deficits mean incomes are failing to meet both core living costs and the costs needed to meaningfully participate in society, placing thousands of children at risk of entrenched hardship.

"This modelling shows that our society is seriously failing children who live in low-income households. Families continue to be locked in poverty and unable to break through the constraints of the income floor", said CPAG Research and Programmes Officer Dr Harry Yu Shi.

The project tracked single adults, couples and sole parents on income support or in low-wage work from 2018 to 2026. Despite periodic increases to benefits and wages, the research finds that income support and the minimum wage have not kept pace with rising living costs.

Key findings include:

• Minimum wage no longer guarantees adequacy: Couples with two children working 40 hours on minimum wage are already in deficit in 2025. By 2026, even a combined total of 60 hours of work will not be enough to lift them above the income floor.
• Sole parents facing severe shortfalls: Sole parents with three children in private rentals are $170 short each week of meeting basic costs, leaving them far below the income floor regardless of whether they receive Best Start support or not.
• Rising hardship over time: While incomes improved modestly between 2021 and 2024, the research shows the households we modelled are now universally worse off from 2025 onwards.
• Housing costs pushing families deeper into deficit: Couples on Jobseeker Support with two children and average rental costs are more than $300 per week short. 
• Single adults not spared: Those on Jobseeker or Supported Living Payment are nearly $100 per week below the income floor needed for basic necessities.

"The evidence is clear: even working full time or combining wages with benefits is no longer enough to enable families to break free of the constraints of poverty," said Dr Harry Yu Shi.

"The income floor is rising and families are being pushed under it by increasing rents, food costs and stagnant supports. Without urgent action, more children will grow up locked out of the opportunities every New Zealander deserves."

The research also highlights that improvements achieved following the 2021 Wellbeing Budget have been reversed. All 39 households modelled are on a trajectory of worsening deficits by 2026, regardless of income type or household size.

CPAG is calling for immediate increases to core benefit rates, stronger indexing to living costs and policies to lift working incomes.

"We cannot accept a system where our children are unable to flourish because the powerful currents of our economy force families to live below the income floor," said CPAG Research and Programmes Officer Dr Harry Yu Shi.

The next stage of this research projects aims to use Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) to establish how many real households fit into each category, and therefore, the true scale of this issue.