Inland Empire Real Estate and Marginalia

What Do Big Banks, Short Sales and Government Have In Common?

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 07:27:00 GMT

During the boom years, the big banks were pushing to be allowed to add real estate office to their portfolios. That would have given them control of the market from listing to foreclosure. Lucky for the consumer, this didn't happen. This article from Diana Olick at CNBC: Short Sale 'Fraud' Follow, gives you just a small look into what it might have been had they been allowed to become licensed real estate offices.

Big banks currently control a large portion of the RE market via short sales (which require their approval) and foreclosures. When they are not putting the screws to you via high credit card interest rates they "extort" money from you when you try to buy a home. "Pay us under the table or we won't let you sell your house." I wonder how they report this alleged under the table income on their balance sheets? Is there a line item for "Income - RESPA violations." I would say it is time for the bank regulators to perform an audit of some of these banks. HUD where are you? If a REALTOR® were to take part in any of this alleged fraud and violation of RESPA laws then they would lose their license and the ability to make a living in the real estate industry forever! RESPA applies to the lending world. However, if they refuse, then they lose a client, a transaction, and a paycheck.

If any bank is truly found guilty of this alleged practice, they need to lose their license to lend. They also need to pay penalties to help fund additional regulators to root out these types of abuses. Any Buyer or Seller that has fallen victim should be awarded direct compensation for such abuses.

Here is something to think about. If that house next to you sold for $100,000 plus an undisclosed $1000 under the table, then the true value of homes are not being represented. The true value of the home was $101,000. Doesn't sound like a lot. Every home in the area just lost $1000 in value due to such a sale. The State (if home is in California), just lost $10 in real estate taxes for the first year. Doesn't sound like much, but imagine that this alleged abuse has occurred for 1000 homes across California. That is $10,000 in taxable income per year that the State has lost plus the 2% annual increase.

I could continue with a rant about "I'm from the Government, I'm here to help you," but I leave that to someone else.

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"Tree House" For Sale

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 00:24:00 GMT

If a picture is worth a 1000 words, then what does this one say?

Click image for larger view

We all know that a listing without any photos is less likely to be looked at by Buyers. You should always have at least 1 photo on your listings. The more photos you have on the listing the more likely it is that the Buyer will consider it. Your photos should also not hide the ugliness.

I know, you want to show the property in it's best light. I agree. However, you should also not intentionally hide issues. I have no idea what the status of the property in the photo is. I am not sure the listing agent does either. The above photo is the ONLY photo on the listing. I am not sure I would have chosen this as my primary and ONLY photo. What does the inside look like? If it looks like this on the outside perhaps the inside is so bad that it wasn't worth taking interior photos.

Here are the public comments in entirety!

SHORT SALE

What more could you possibly want to know about this property right? How about, WHY IS THE TREE RESTING ON THE HOUSE! I can just imagine the conversation that took place at that listing appointment.

And the agent remarks don't provide much more information. In fact, they just say to be sure and call before you visit. Why, so you can reserve me a hard hat or so that you can take down the caution tape in hopes I won't notice the white elephant. What Buyer would even consider visiting? Give me more information on the home. It doesn't mention that the roof has a tree resting on it. A fairly LARGE tree from the looks of it. I am sure it hasn't occurred to this listing agent or the owner why the property has been on the market longer than 200 days.

My advice to the lender reviewing offers for this home, if any have come forth. Take the first offer over $1 and call it a successful sale! You do not want to own this property!

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The Recession Is Over

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:11:00 GMT

From the WSJ:

The latest to weigh in on the debate is Christopher Rupkey, the New York-based chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. In a note this morning, he says a V-shaped recovery — in which the economy not only recovers but rebounds strongly — is “maybe not as far-fetched as you think”.
...
As for claiming the recession may have already ended, he points to a series that in the past has proven a remarkably good indicator of business cycle troughs: weekly claims for unemployment benefits. That series peaked in the week of March 28 when a seasonally adjusted 674,000 new claims were filed; it has since retreated though it remains historically high. If that peak holds, it means the recession likely ended in April or May, he said.

I agree that using the numbers for unemployment are a good leading indicator, but it is only one of the measures. The only thing that I would caution those using it as an indicator would be how the numbers are playing out. Why are the numbers going down? The same reason they shot up so quickly. Unemployment benefits were extended, so many of the unemployed that were not "on the books" because they had exhausted their benefits were suddenly back on the books. Now benefits are starting to expire and those long unemployed are beginning to drop "off the books" again, not because they found work. So while the numbers show unemployment improving, it may be a bit of a false hope and some noise in the data.

What I am watching is job growth, not unemployment shrinking. When the employed can go to work and not fear a pink slip then the recession will be over. I think many are at the point where they have cut the fat so much that they can't cut much more. Those with benefits that have been less than motivated to find a job are going to start looking aggressively. Once the State and Federal Governments figure out how to cut some fat we will be ready to begin building again.

I am in the camp that thinks the recession may be over or soon will be. The thing about recessions is that they aren't officially recognized to begin or end until it has already occurred. They are like the housing market in this respect. If you are waiting for housing prices to "turn around" before you buy, then you have already missed the "sweet spot" that you have been waiting for.

As for a "V" recovery, I just don't see that happening. I think this December will see better numbers than 2008, but only slightly. However, I think that will be the stimulus that consumer confidence needs to begin the upswing. So look for slow to no growth from here to October. In November and December it will begin to pickup as the other side of the "U" recovery begins. By summer 2010 we will definitely be on the upswing, but hopefully with a more moderate angle than the mid 2000's.

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Inferred Housing Cycles

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:16:00 GMT

I was sifting through the data that I have on the local real estate market here in the Inland Empire and I started to wonder when the homes that were on the market were built. So I put together some graphs. It turns out that the homes that are on the market were most commonly (the mode for you statisticians) built in 2005.

This first graph shows the number of listings on 7/30/2008 by the year built. I kept the vertical axis set to 120 so that it was easier to compare the graphs.

Click image for larger view

My data does not indicate anything in particular. However, it does appear that the year that the homes that are on the market were built tend to have peaks and valleys. For example, a sample of data taken on March 30, 2009 with a 30 day window indicates that there is a peak of homes built in 1979, then a relative steady pace from 1985-1989 with a drop in 1987, then a rise again until we peak at 2005.

Keep in mind that all of the years shown are for homes that were on the market during the sample period. So this data does not represent any correlation with the number of homes built during a given year. It represents a sample of listings with a change in status within 30 days of the sample period.

This second graph show the number of listings by year built on 6/29/2009.Click image for larger view

Why would there be such a pattern of peaks and valleys. I sampled the data set for several different months. I went as far back as July 30, 2008. The actual data is a little different, but the peaks and valleys are roughly the same.

So the data begs the question. Why are homes built in 1987 less likely to be listed than homes built in 1988? Why are so many homes that are built in 2005 on the market?

I suspect, but can't seem to find anything to correlate the data, that it may be related to historical housing booms and busts. It is my theory that during the peak of the housing boom that the quality of construction may decline because builders are under pressure to complete projects at an ever increasing pace to keep up with demand. As the boom turns to bust, they are free to spend "quality time" building a structure.

One theory that I also considered was related to financing of the homes. Homes that were purchased in 2005 may be financed with Adjustable Rate Mortgages that are beginning to reset. However, this does not explain the peaks and valleys for the older homes. All of the data represents current listings, not the number of homes listed in that year.

Another theory may be purely related to the number homes built during a particular year. If lots of homes were built during 1986, but not so many in 1987, then it stands to reason that an equal percentage of each year will result in a higher count during boom years and a smaller number during less that active years. Lots of homes were built in 2005. During the period of 2006-2009 less homes were built. So perhaps the data is just a reflection of the building cycle?

Take a look at the two graphs. What is your theory on what the data means?

Note: The data for these graphs were all in the 92336 area code. If a larger geographical area is sampled, then the data may be more uniform.

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Inland Empire Sales 1 in 5

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 14:03:00 GMT

The Inland Empire continues to have strong sales numbers, relatively speaking. According to report from MDA DataQuick, and estimated 39,051 homes and condos were sold in California during the month of May. During the same period, MDA DataQuick reports that 7,548 homes were sold in the Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. Also known as the Inland Empire.

That is about 19% of all homes, or 1 in 5, sold statewide were sold in the Inland Empire. So homes in the Inland Empire are definitely moving. With a median price of $137,000 in San Bernardino County its no wonder homes are selling. First time buyers and investors see that real estate in the Inland Empire is the place to buy. Prices are down and you can find great deals.

For those investors that didn't buy during the boom, this is the time when they are buying some of the best deals. in 3-5 years these homes will have provided decent cash flow from a renter and can be resold for a reasonable profit. If held onto for 10 years, you can expect to make more than $100,000 in profit between monthly rents and an eventual resale without trying very hard. Multiply that by 10 homes and you are averaging $100,000/year income. Most people would consider that a good income.

A quick glance at active listing in San Bernardino County that have been listed in just the last 7 days with 3 or more bedrooms and 2 or more baths gives us 354 listings. Here is just a sample of some of the low price leaders.

Click image for a larger version

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Underwater Home

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 13:14:00 GMT

This give a whole new meaning to the term "underwater."

http://www.zillowblog.com/under-lake-jocassee-is-attakulla-lodge-still-intact/2009/02/

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Open Letter To California State Legislature

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:03:00 GMT

I encourage everyone to contact their representative to express your own opinion, whatever those may be. Find out who your representative is here: http://www.legislature.ca.gov/port-zipsearch.html

The following is copy of an open letter that I sent to my representatives.

Dear State Representative:

I am writing to express my deep disappointment that the State Legislature has not yet come to an agreement on the State budget.

I do understand that the State budget is a large and complex issue that should not be taken lightly. I feel that I have been abandoned by the California State Government. The State Legislature should be required to be locked in session until the State budget has been resolved.

I am watching intently and waiting for a resolution. My expectation is that the entire Legislature, yourself included, will take the necessary steps and come to an agreement on the State budget and not play the blame game. Instead, you will work with your colleges to come to a decision and a State budget resolution that moves the State and the lives of the 33.8 million Californians forward.

Unless decisive and final action is taken soon, I will have to conclude that the you and the other members of the California Legislature do not have the ability to govern the Great State of California efficiently and effectively and are not worthy of re-election.

I hope and pray that you and other members of the California State Legislature will be able to prove to me that this is still the Golden State and not just a painted brick of lead.

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NBER Announces Recession

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:21:00 GMT

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has announced that December of 2007 has the peak of economic activity. This confirms what many already felt. I recall talking with my Brother-in-law in just prior to New Years Eve in December of 2007 about this. I told him that despite the fact that it had not been announced that we were in a recession, we were in a recession.

Calculated Risk has been using December 2007 as the beginning of the recession for some time now in his research.

From NBER: Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.
...

The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession, as set forth in the second paragraph of this document. All evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion. Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months.

So there it is. We have been in recession for one year now. The only question remaining now is how long will it take for the contraction to end.

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Sad News: Tanta Vive

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:08:00 GMT

It is with great sadness that I learn that Tanta, and influential voice on the mortgage crisis, died early morning on November 30, in Columbus, Ohio.

I never had the opportunity to meet her, but read much of her postings. She taught many with her words and wisdom. She will be missed.

Calculated Risk will be announcing a charity of Doris' soon if you would like to contribute. Please visit Calculated Risk for more information.

From Calculated Risk:

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My dear friend and co-blogger Doris “Tanta” Dungey passed away early this morning. I would like to express my deepest condolences to her family and friends.

From The New York Times:

Thanks in large part to Tanta’s contributions, Calculated Risk became a crucial source of prescient analysis as the housing market at first faltered, then collapsed and finally spawned a full-blown credit crisis.

Tanta used her extensive knowledge of the loan industry to comment, castigate and above all instruct. Her fans ranged from the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times who cited her in his blog, to analysts at the Federal Reserve, who cited her in a paper on “Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit.”
She wrote under a pseudonym because she hoped some day to go back to work in the mortgage industry, and the increasing renown of Tanta in that world might have precluded that. Tanta was Ms. Dungey’s longtime family nickname, Ms. Stickelmaier said.

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Patience + Persistence = Perseverance

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 23:17:00 GMT

Most homes sold in Southern California today are foreclosures. According to recent report from DataQuick, Southland home sales up, prices down; foreclosures now half the market, 50% of home sales in Southern California are foreclosures.

Prices are down and sales activity is up. That doesn't mean finding a home is a walk in the park. Finding a decent home among the chaff is a challenge.

Purchasing a foreclosure can be a great way to purchase a home. However, it can be very daunting as witnessed by Peter Y. Hong in his report in the Times.

Peter witnessed first hand what many Buyers and Agents are experiencing in the market today. Among what Peter experienced, here is what else you can expect to find when searching for that perfect home.

Listing agents that won't allow any showings. Listing agents that won't submit an offer. Loans that fall out despite pre-approval status. Sellers (aka banks) that take weeks or even months to accept an offer. Listing agents that flatly refuse to review an offer unless the Buyer agrees to "cross-qualify with the sellers lender" and provide the most intimate of financial details prior to submitting an offer. Buyer's Agents that steal the keys from properties to prevent other agents from showing the property.

Here is probably the best of them. Listing agents that are selling homes as owner occupied "Short Sales" that are no longer owned by the seller. The bank foreclosed on the property and took it from the owner. Within days of the foreclosure, the seller hires an agent to sell the property. The agent took the listing from the seller despite the fact that they don't own it. They just want to expose listings in hopes of getting clients. In most other areas of business they call this deceptive advertising.

Want to destroy your credit score? Try "pre-qualifying" with a dozen lenders over the period of a couple of months. This is what listing agents of REO properties expect you to do. They "require" you to "cross-qualify" with their special loan officer or your offer will not be submitted.

What to do if you are in the market for a foreclosed home? Be patient and persistent. If you continue to present offers you will find the right home with the right seller. Eventually you will persevere and have that home you have been looking for. In the mean time, do everything possible to increase the strength of your buying position by saving as much cash as you can.

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Trick or Treat?

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:46:00 GMT

There are not that many Buyers out there these days. With all the news about the economy and lack of funding, buyers are waiting this market out as they have been for several years now. My personal opinion is that if you are looking for a home now you might lose a little value in the next year. However, it will not be as significant as the loss was for those that purchased in 2005.

Timing the real estate market is notoriously difficult. Generally the peaks and valleys are known 3-6 months after they have occurred. If you want to buy a home and you have the cash, now is the time to look. However, don't just settle for anything, find the good deal.

I was poking around on the MLS and decided to look for the best deal I could find. To make it easy and a bit less subjective, I am using the Price per Square foot as the yard stick. Certainly this does not a deal make, but serves as a good benchmark.

So using the using the bang for the buck theory, what can you find in North Fontana? I did a search for homes in the 92336 area code that were within the Etiwanda School District boundaries. I found only 2 homes that are under the $100/sq. ft. price range. One of them was an REO and the other was a short-sale. Since the majority of short-sales never happen, I am going to have to give the title to the REO.

At just $95/sq. ft. this 3683 sqft home is the best value. It has been on the market for over 408 days as of this writing. The previous owner paid $405,500 for this home and then took more than $450,000 out of the home. The bank took it over for $448,510.

While the price per sqft is a good deal, the sticker price can be difficult for some buyers to look at. The bank has owned this home since April of 2007. The home was first listed at $504,900. Amazingly it did not sell. (That is sarcasm).

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Child Safety Fair 2008

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 02:56:00 GMT

Note that this information is outdated.

The 17th Annual Fontana Police Department Child Safety Fair is on Saturday September 20 in the Fontana Police Department parking lot.

At the fair there will be:

Free Health Screenings
Free Educational Info
Free Activities
Free Give-A-Ways
Live Entertainment
Free Food
Car Seat Inspections

Special guest appearances by:

The Animal Guys (shows at 11:00am and 1:00pm)
Zumba Kids
McGruff the Crime Dog
Officer Byrd
Incredibear from John's Incredible Pizza
Bugs Bunny
and more

For more information, call (909) 350-7758

When/Where: 17005 UPLAND AVE SEPTEMBER 20, 2008 10:00am-3:00pm

Ode To Chase

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 05:07:00 GMT

After the beginning of the real estate meltdown in 2005, banks began to tighten their lending standards. They realized that the housing market wasn't not everything it was cracked up to be. There was no way anyone could convince a bank to lend money on a home that was worth less than the loan. Or could they?

golfer_x at Housing Kaboom is constantly monitoring the housing market in the Inland Empire. He clearly wants to be ready to act when the time is right to buy. The only way to know if the time is right is to watch the market.

* Photo courtesy of Housing Kaboom

golfer_X is known for finding what he calls the Realtard of the month. It is awarded to real estate agents that just don't seem to be playing with all of their faculties. In May of 2008, he wrote about a home at 17362 Woodentree Ln, Riverside that was owned and listed by a real estate agent that was way overpriced for the neighborhood.

Fast forward a few months and guess what golfer_X found. The same listing is amazingly still on the market. Only now the property is listed at $1 million.

It gets richer. The current owner bought it as an REO. The county records show a sale in November of 2007 for the price of $535,000. The lender, Chase Bank, gave a loan amount of $603,250. That is $68,250 more than the purchase price in 2007 when the housing market was in free fall and the credit crisis was in full swing! That is more than 112% of the purchase price. I wonder what all that extra money was used for. My guess is that it was used to install fake grass and pay for a commission. Guess the banks just didn't learn. Here's to the wise underwriters of Chase. Nobody can pull a fast one over on you!

If that wasn't bad enough, there was apparently a double closing. On the same day that the agent purchased the home for $535,000, the new agent/owner sold the home for $635,000 to someone else. That is a profit of $100,000. Not bad for a days work. I wonder if the agent disclosed his financial gain to his client? I wouldn't pay $100,000 more for a home that just sold on the same day.

A few months later in March of 2008, a private lender provided a $50,000 loan to somebody. It isn't clear if it was the agent or the lucky new owner. Regardless, the county shows that the home was sold back to the agent on the same day. My guess is that the agent provided a parting gift to the guy he sold it to back in November of 2007 for a huge profit. There is no sales price listed for the March sale, just a record of a deed giving the property back to the agent/owner.

Fast forward to June of 2008 and the agent/owner managed to get another loan for $132,500 from a private lender. Bad mistake Mr. Lender. Within one month the new loan was in default. The entire amount is in default! Not one payment was made on the new loan. In fact, the county records show that the loan is in default for the amount of $134,200.

My guess is that the total owed on this property far exceeds the $700,000 mark and that the loan that is in default is a second or third lien. If the agent/owner only owed the $134,200, they could list the property for $300,000 and have it sold yesterday. Instead he is trying to list it at a completely unreasonable price.

Here is the best part. Since the most recent lender is not in first position, they must foreclose on the property to protect their asset. If the first lien holder were to foreclose on the property, then all junior liens (2nd and 3rd mortgages) would be wiped out. That means the junior lien holder must pay all other loans while they are in foreclosure proceedings to protect their asset. Unless of course the agent/owner is paying the mortgage on the first. Somehow I doubt that is occurring.

Wonder why the FDIC is announcing bank failures? This is one example of the many reasons.

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FDIC Friday Failure

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 01:17:00 GMT

Friday is the most common day for your friendly neighborhood regulator to lock the doors of your the local bank and take it over. The FDIC is keeping busy these days with yet another bank failure. On August 22, 2008 The Columbian Bank and Trust, Topeka, KS was taken over by the FDIC. That brings us to a total of 9 this year. The real question is if the failures of 2008 are the beginning of a 1980-1993 period or more like the period of 1994-2007? The answer to that will be in the numbers for 2008-2009.

Click image for large view of graph

The FDIC has been getting prepared for the coming bank failures for some time now. The FDIC announced on Tuesday, August 22, 2008, that in the second quarter 117 banks and thrifts were considered to be trouble. That is the highest level in 5 years.

From MSNBC.com: Mortgage mess puts more banks at risk

The mortgage mess that has upended millions of homeowners’ finances is now taking a bigger bite out of the nation’s banking system.

And while depositors with insured accounts face little risk of losing their money, the insurance fund’s top regulator said it may have to borrow money from the Treasury to make good on that promise to consumers.
...
So far, only nine lenders have failed this year, the largest of which was Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac, which was taken over by the FDIC in July with about $32 billion in assets and $19 billion in deposits. It was the second-largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, after Continental Illinois National Bank in 1984.
Those failures have depleted the insurance fund, which now stands at $45 billion — less than the FDIC is supposed to have on hand, according to Daniel Alpert, an investment banker at Westwood Capital.
...
Bair also told the Wall Street Journal the FDIC couldn’t rule out the possibility that it may have ask the Treasury for capital to tide it over through the coming round of bank failures. The money would be used to pay depositors insurance claims, and then paid back after the assets of the failed bank are sold.

I suspect that 2008 will round out with a total bank failure of 14-17 failures. If you have any uninsured deposits, now may be a good time to shuffle some funds to make sure you are covered. Nothing like finding out your not covered after it is too late. You can visit the FDIC and read about how FDIC insurance works to make sure you are covered. If you have about 20 minutes, you can view this informative video provided by the FDIC which explains what Deposit Insurance is all about. You can skip to the "Common Ownership Categories" section or other relevant sections to hear just the part about how you are covered as an individual.

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Need a Vacation?

Robert Little, REALTOR®, e-PRO — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 20:18:00 GMT

I was browsing the articles on MarketWatch and this one jumped out at me. It made me chuckle.

From MarketWatch: So Cal's Bail-Bonds.com Is Offering a $500 Gas Card With Bail

... Bail-Bonds.com, which has 24 locations throughout the So Cal area including the Inland Empire, Riverside County and San Bernardino County, wants to help its clients get back on their feet. Through September 30th, 2008 Bail-Bonds.com will be offering a $500 gas card to customers in So Cal, Riverside, San Bernardino and Inland Empire who retain Bail-Bonds.com for bail bond services.

...

... some of the more notable clients for Bail-Bonds.com including Michael Jackson, Lindsay Lohan and Shelly Malil. In fact, Bail-Bonds.com even received an endorsement from the infamous Danny Bonaduce.

So they next time you are arrested and need to get out of town fast, call Bail-Bonds.com. They will even pay for the gas.

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