Inside College Football

Week 11 bets

2010-11-12T18:23:00.002-05:00

All plays this week will be parlayed with Oregon, Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon State moneylines. You may have noticed that I stopped blogging this week. It's just become too time-consuming with work, and the payoff (read: web traffic) hasn't been worth continuing it this season.

That said, let's look at this week. We were 3-1 last week for +12.15 units, bringing us to 50-47 for the year and +16.16 units. Time to make some money this weekend.

1. NC State -1000 ML + Oregon -1000 ML + Ohio State -900 ML + Illinois -1400 ML + Oregon State -1900 ML -- 9.69u to win 5u
2. Oklahoma -600 ML + those four -- 8.22u to win 5u
3. Alabama -500 ML + those four -- 7.64u to win 5u
4. Kentucky -600 ML + those four -- 4.11u to win 2.5u
5. Maryland -135 ML + those four -- 2.55u to win 5u

Total risk: 32.21u to win 22.5u

We need a college playoff

2010-11-08T07:55:00.000-05:00

As we approach the 11th week of the college football season, the pool of unbeaten teams has been whittled down to four: Oregon, Auburn, TCU and Boise State.

This year is the best argument for why there should be a college football playoff implemented ASAP.

The topic has been argued by both parties to no end. It's constantly mentioned by SportsCenter, Around the Horn, Pardon the Interruption and Mike and Mike. So instead of talking about the NCAA's fascination with dollar bills, let's look at how the rest of the season will play out.

No. 1 Oregon has been untouchable en route to a 9-0 record. The Ducks have 58 offensive touchdowns and have allowed just 18, and are outgaining opponents 570 yards to 330 yards per game. Oregon has three games remaining, but just one against a ranked opponent: a home game against No. 13 Arizona. The Ducks beat up on No. 9 Stanford, 52-31 earlier in the season, and Stanford beat Arizona by 25 on Saturday. It's safe to say the Ducks will end up 12-0.

At No. 2 in the BCS rankings, Auburn is the team with the diciest remaining schedule. The Tigers are 10-0 and have just two regular season games remaining on its schedule: a home game against Georgia (5-5) and a road game at No. 11 Alabama, once considered the frontrunner for this year's championship. Auburn has to win that game, for which it might be an underdog, and then win the SEC Championship Game. That means beating either No. 24 Florida or No. 22 South Carolina. Not as difficult as beating Alabama, but not a cakewalk, either.

No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Boise State have beaten everything put in front of them. Last year, the two were matched against each other in the Fiesta Bowl. A 13-0 Boise State team beat a 12-0 TCU team 17-10, an exciting matchup, but disappointing to see neither given the opportunity to beat a BCS conference team and show America that they could hang with the big boys.

It was a lose-lose situation for both teams in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. The winner should have won, after all, it wasn't even playing a BCS conference team. And the loser? How could it have been a championship-caliber team if it couldn't even beat a non-automatic qualifier?

Boise State hears the same argument every year: a poor strength of schedule makes it impossible to leapfrog bigger teams that play in better conferences. But the Broncos beat No. 10 Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. and beat No. 24 Oregon State in Week 3, and have run the table in its Western Athletic Conference schedule so far. But a poor in-conference strength of schedule puts the Broncos firmly behind TCU.

TCU has the best argument for getting in over Auburn. The Horned Frogs are 10-0 with a far more impressive margin of victory in most games, and, like Boise State, beat No. 24 Oregon State, 30-21. TCU also beat Baylor, Air Force and last week, No. 6 Utah, 47-7.

It's not either team's fault, but it is hard to argue that they should get put in over a team that goes undefeated in the SEC or Pac-10.

Coincidentally, the last time the BCS had this much controversy was in 2004, when Auburn, USC and Oklahoma all finished 12-0 for the regular season. Auburn was the one school left out of the National Championship, leaving people scratching their heads wondering why there wasn't a better way to settle the debate.

Week 10 bets

2010-11-04T14:02:00.018-04:00

The last two weeks has been kind of a bummer. We were up nearly 32 units after Week 7, but are down 28 units in the last two weeks. Thanks, West Virginia and Miami (FL). Those two games cost me a boatload. West Virginia didn't deserve to win, despite it being its homecoming game, but Miami should have beaten Virginia in Charlottesville, except starting quarterback Jacory Harris got a concussion in the second quarter. It was all downhill after that.

So we're now 47-46-0, +4.01 units. Not where I wanted to be right now. But I do feel better about this week's bets than I have about the past two weeks, so that's a good sign.

Because I've got a little more time than usual, I'll break down why I like these games, too.

Iowa -800 ML at Indiana -- The Hoosiers are an incredibly one-dimensional team. With no running game, Indiana is forced to pass it to move the ball. Iowa is coming off a blowout win over Michigan State in which the Hawkeyes allowed just 198 yards in the air. Meanwhile, Indiana's pass and rush defenses are worse than Iowa's pass and rush offenses, which should create plenty of scoring opportunities for the Hawkeyes. Lastly, Iowa's only injuries are to two linebackers -- one is out, the other is questionable. Indiana is considerably more banged up, with a tight end, safety and kicker out, and a cornerback (Adrian Burks) questionable. Even starting quarterback Ben Chappell is banged up.

Wisconsin -1200 ML at Purdue -- Purdue's pass offense is abysmal, ranking 115th out of 120 teams. Its running game is considerably better, but ranks 40th in the country -- Wisconsin's run defense is 22nd. The Badgers are coming off a bye week, and have just one injury to a starter. But Purdue is on its third-string quarterback, and has a starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver out for Saturday. Starting cornerback Mike Eargle is questionable for Purdue, too.

Michigan State -2150 ML vs. Minnesota -- Minnesota, like the rest of the teams in my plays, cannot defend the pass or the run, and therefore a Michigan State team frustrated with an embarrassing loss last week, will take it out on the Gophers. Minnesota's banged up, with two starting offensive linemen and a fullback likely out, while Michigan State is healthy as can be.

Florida -550 ML at Vanderbilt -- Of all the games, this is the one that worries me slightly. And it should, as it's the lowest moneyline of all my plays. But here's the reasoning, either way. Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball on Florida's defense. That's not necessarily because Florida has a suffocating defense, but Vandy's offense just isn't very good. Florida got a few of its playmakers back in last week's win over Georgia, including Jeffery Demps, who instantly gives the Gators a playmaker who Vanderbilt can't guard.

Boise State -1300 ML vs. Hawaii -- Boise is coming off 11 days of rest, while Hawaii is traveling to a different time zone on six days rest. While Boise is nicked up here and there, its defense is tenacious, ranking second in run defense and eighth in pass defense. Hawaii has no running game, but has the nation's best passing offense. The Broncos should put up significant points against Hawaii's weaker defense, and Hawaii will find the end zone too, just not nearly as frequently.

Here's the bets:

Ohio -590 ML + Wisconsin -1200 ML + Michigan State -2400 ML + Boise State -1300 ML in all four parlays

Virginia Tech -475 ML + those four -- 10u to win 7.2u
Iowa -850 ML + those four -- 10u to win 5.89u
Maryland +260 ML + those four -- 1.94u to win 8u
Florida -550 ML + those four -- 1.47u to win 1u

Total risk: 23.41u to win 22.09u

Locker out with broken rib

2010-11-03T07:47:00.004-04:00

If there's one player who has done a disservice to himself by returning to college football for another year, it's Washington quarterback Jake Locker.

It's great to see players make the decision to stay in school rather than leaving for the big bucks, but it can be a costly one. NFL teams often draft on potential, and the longer scouts have to watch a player, the less he'll be drafted on potential, and the more he'll be drafted on results.

Locker was thought of as the consensus No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft, but opted to come back to school for a year.

After a freshman season when Locker ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns, he was injured as a sophomore and missed most of the season. As a junior, he rebounded from his injury and put together a solid campaign, relying more on his arm than on his legs. He finished with 21 passing touchdowns to 11 interceptions, and ran for nearly 400 yards and seven touchdowns.

This year, his numbers are on pace to be about the same, but he's choked in big games. In an early season home loss to Nebraska, he was just 4-for-20 for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. And while he torched Oregon State for five touchdowns and one interception, he had another dreadful performance against another fantastic offense in last week's loss to Stanford.

Locker was 7-for-14 for 64 yards and two interceptions against the Cornhuskers, leaving scouts wondering whether he's ready to take on NFL defenses. Against Stanford, he suffered a broken rib and is out for this weekend's game against Oregon, and possibly for longer than that.

He's still projected as a first round quarterback by ESPN scouts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, but coming back may have cost him millions.

Week 9 game balls

2010-11-02T07:39:00.006-04:00

Three game balls to hand out to offensive players across the country for their outstanding Week 9 performances.

Nebraska running back Roy Helu -- Helu (pictured) ran for a school-record 307 yards on 28 carries, good for an average of 11 yards per carry, in a 31-17 win over then-undefeated Missouri. Helu found the end zone three times, from 66 yards, 73 yards and 53 yards out, single-handedly outscoring the Tigers in the win.

Oregon running back LaMichael James -- James had a similar performance, running 36 times for 239 yards and three touchdowns in a 53-32 win at Southern Cal. Many thought USC was Oregon's best chance to be upset this year, but the Ducks' high-octane offense pulled through. Now, Oregon seems to have a straight shot at a National Championship, barring any hiccups.

Joint game ball to: Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones and wide receiver Ryan Broyles -- the duo hooked up nine times for 208 yards and three touchdowns in a 43-10 win over Colorado. Though the Buffaloes weren't much of a test, the Sooners have been criticized for playing down to their opponents in the past. A 33-point win over a fellow Big 12 team, and doing so with phenomenal success in the air, gives Jones and Broyles a reason to celebrate.

Harris questionable for Maryland game

2010-11-01T07:54:00.004-04:00

With start quarterback Jacory Harris laying motionless on the field at Virginia's Scott Stadium on Saturday, Miami (FL) head coach Randy Shannon looked on with concern.

Harris had been at the receiving end of a vicious hit by Virginia defensive tackle John-Kevin Dolce, as he was driven into the ground, where he stayed for several minutes.

He did not return to the game, as backup quarterback Stephen Morris took his first collegiate snaps in Harris' place. The official diagnosis is a concussion, leaving Harris questionable for Saturday's home game against Maryland.

Morris was 9-for-22 for 164 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, and ran for 23 yards and a touchdown on the ground. But until the fourth quarter, he had accounted for zero touchdowns and

According to the Miami Herald, "Shannon said coaches would limit the offensive playbook should Morris start. 'He's been here 10 months,' Shannon said. 'At this time last year he was in high school.'"

Morris, a true freshman, maintained his redshirt status until Saturday, but his limited experience against the Cavaliers will be well worth it if Harris is unable to go on Saturday.

Shannon noted that the rest of the team would not be left in the dark as to who the starter would be for Saturday. "They'll know when the time comes. Jacory has to practice, No. 1. If he [doesn't] practice, they'll know he's not the guy at that time," he said.

Week 9 bets

2010-10-29T19:34:00.002-04:00

Nothing too crazy this week.

Miami -620 ML + Temple -7000 ML + Arkansas -1300 ML + Ohio State -3300 ML + Oklahoma -2150 ML + TCU -15000 ML + Nevada -4200 ML + South Carolina -950 ML -- 9u to win 5u
Illinois -850 ML + Miami -620 ML + South Carolina -950 ML -- 5.75u to win 2.5u
Florida +110 ML + those eight -- 1u to win 2.27u
Kentucky +7.5 (-150) + those eight -- 1u to win 1.6u
Maryland -220 ML + those eight -- 1u to win 1.27u

Total risk: 17.75u to win 12.64u

TCU vs. Boise State resume comparison

2010-10-28T07:47:00.016-04:00

Boise State and TCU are both tuning in to watch every Auburn and Oregon game for the rest of the season. Neither "mid-major" team will likely be able to leapfrog the SEC and Pac-10's top teams, respectively, unless the Tigers or Ducks lose a game.

Boise State, despite beating No. 10 Virginia Tech in Washington D.C. and No. 21 Oregon State by 13 points, suffers from a weak built-in conference schedule. There's not much the Broncos can do about that, except move into a better conference -- which they're doing next year.

But two wins over ranked teams, sprinkled over 10 more (expected) wins against teams like Wyoming, New Mexico State, Toledo, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, etc., just aren't going to get you into the national championship picture.

Boise is doing all it can, beating teams by silly amounts. Against Western Athletic Conference teams, the Broncos are outscoring their opponents 264-40.

Next year, it shouldn't be a problem, as Boise State joins TCU in the Mountain West Conference. And as you'll see, TCU's strength of schedule is significantly more attractive for the BCS Championship game.

The Horned Frogs also own a win over Oregon State, so call that quality win a wash. TCU also has a road game at No. 9 Utah coming up, which would be as impressive a victory -- at least, it should be -- as a win at FedEx Field was for Boise State.

But TCU adds wins over Baylor (6-2), Southern Methodist (No. 1 in Conference USA), Brigham Young (which beat Washington in Week 1) and Air Force (which beat Navy and nearly beat Oklahoma). And if TCU runs the table, it'll hold a win over San Diego State (5-2), too.

And the Horned Frogs have blown the doors off their opponents, too. TCU has scored 41 touchdowns this season and allowed just nine in eight games. It's outscored opponents 319-72, and has allowed just 10 points in the last four games.

In the end, though, it won't matter as long as Auburn and Oregon both win out. That's a huge if, and it would be surprising if Auburn didn't stumble at least once. But as of right now, the nod has to go to a team that runs the table in the SEC and a team that runs the table in the Pac-10.

Michigan State's comeback win

2010-10-27T07:46:00.009-04:00

Michigan State entered last week's game at Northwestern with its best start in 44 years. But late in the second quarter, with the Spartans down 17-0, their hopes of winning the Big Ten for the first time since 1990 began to fade.

With three punts, a fumble and a missed field goal to start the game, Michigan State finally pieced together a respectable eight-play, 60-yard touchdown drive, three minutes before halftime.

It appeared to give the Spartans a bit of confidence on both sides of the ball.

Prior to that touchdown, Northwestern had scored 17 points on the first five possessions, including two 70-plus yard touchdown drives.

But the tables started to turn. Michigan State's defense tightened up, forcing four punts, a turnover on downs, an interception, and allowing just 10 points on the final eight Northwestern possessions of the game.

Out of halftime, Michigan State's offense began to really click. A mediocre punt in the third quarter handed the Spartans the ball near midfield. Quarterback Kirk Cousins threw a 27-yard pass, and wide receiver Bennie Fowler scampered 22 yards for a score.

Later, Michigan State ate serious clock with an 11-play, 75-yard drive that took nearly five minutes. Cousins threw for gains of 12, 11, 16 and 13 yards (a touchdown), but the Spartans showed their confidence when senior punter Aaron Bates perfectly executed a fake punt, throwing for a 23-yard gain on 4th and 11.

A fourth quarter drive took the final wind out of Northwestern's sales. The run game was out of the question, with Cousins playing so well. He ripped off gains of 18, 18, 18, 14, 13 and nine yards (touchdown) as the Spartans converted two critical third-down conversions and took the lead with just 2:10 left in the game.

And a 19-second drive with a minute left in the game was the final nail in the coffin. Michigan State escapes, 35-27. Ballgame, folks.

West Virginia loses on homecoming

2010-10-26T07:46:00.010-04:00

Typically cause for celebration, No. 20 West Virginia's homecoming game against Syracuse was one the school would like to forget about.

The Mountaineers, favored by two touchdowns, lost 19-14 in embarrassing fashion in front of a stunned crowd of 58,122.

"I'm not at all pleased on how we played intellectually. I'm not pleased with the four quarters of the offense and not pleased with the four quarters of the defense. It was a total team defeat," West Virginia coach Bill Stewart said.

After scoring 14 points on its first three possessions, West Virginia simply could not get it going the rest of the game. The Mountaineers threw two interceptions, punted six times and turned the ball over on downs after going up 14-10.

The loss drops West Virginia to 5-2, and out of the Top 25 rankings. It pushed Syracuse to 5-2, and second in the Big East. The Orange have guaranteed their winningest season since 2004, and one more win would guarantee bowl eligibility, their first since the Champs Sports Bowl in 2004.

"At the end of the year, you might say that this was a turning point or that this really helped us. But we have two Big East wins and five wins under our belt, but we're not even near where our goal is — a winning season and a bowl game," Syracuse coach Doug Marrone said.

The curse of No. 1

2010-10-25T07:45:00.010-04:00

For the past three weeks, being the No. 1 team in the country has been a source of stress and frustration, not celebration.

In Week 6, Alabama was ranked No. 1 in the AP and USA Today polls. The Crimson Tide promptly lost their first game of the season -- and the top ranking -- with a 35-27 road loss to South Carolina.

The next week, Ohio State took over the top poll position, and traveled to Wisconsin to play the pesky Badgers. A 31-18 loss later, and it was Oklahoma's chance to take the No. 1 position in the first BCS rankings of the year.

And this past weekend, Oklahoma lost on the road, this time to undefeated Missouri.

Three No. 1 teams, all on the road. A cumulative 0-3 ranking.

Now it's Oregon's turn. Ranked No. 1 in the AP and USA Today nearly unanimously, the Ducks, too, have a road game against a tough opponent: Southern Cal (5-2), coming off a bye week.

No team has gotten close to beating Oregon this year. The Ducks' closest win was an 11-point win at Arizona State. All in all, Oregon is averaging a 39-point margin of victory in each game.

But if there's a team that could beat Oregon, it would arguably be USC, particularly with 14 days to prepare. The Trojans have put together a quietly impressive season in head coach Lane Kiffin's first year, losing two games by a combined three points.

What's really holding USC back in the hopes of upsetting Oregon is the Trojans' defense, which is ranked just 87th in the NCAA so far. Not only would it take a tremendous defensive effort to squash Oregon's high-powered offense, but it would also take every ball bouncing in USC's direction to upset the behemoth.

Here's to betting Oregon doesn't become the fourth No. 1 to lose in a row.

Week 8 bets

2010-10-22T23:59:00.003-04:00

Late and tired as hell, but wanted to post my picks. Here we go.

Using Virginia Tech, Ohio State, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Virginia, San Diego State, TCU and the Baltimore Ravens in all of my picks.

1. Virginia Tech -4000 ML + Ohio State -1900 ML + West Virginia -570 ML + Mississippi State -1100 ML + Virginia -2600 ML + San Diego State -2100 ML + TCU -1000 ML + Baltimore Ravens -650 ML -- 7.69u to win 7u
2. Maryland + those eight -- 1.01u to win 4u
3. Alabama + those eight -- 1.69u to win 2u
4. Oklahoma + those eight -- 1.1u to win 2.5u

Total risk: 11.49 units to win 15.5 units

Stupid West Virginia, losing at home to Syracuse on homecoming.

Adding: 5. Mississippi State ML + Alabama ML + TCU ML + Virginia ML + San Diego State ML + Baltimore Ravens ML -- 5.56u to win 4u
Adding: 6. Oklahoma -140 ML -- 2.8u to win 2u

Worst losses of Week 7

2010-10-21T07:50:00.014-04:00

Last week was a bad one to be ranked in the Top 5. Two teams -- No. 1 Ohio State and No. 5 Nebraska -- lost important games that may have derailed their hopes for a National Championship.

Texas 20, Nebraska 13 -- The No. 5 Cornhuskers lost at home to an unranked Texas team that has looked mediocre all season. Not only did the loss give Nebraska its first blemish of the season, but it also may have knocked quarterback Taylor Martinez out of the Heisman Trophy race.

Martinez, a dual-threat, completed just four of 12 passes, throwing for 62 yards and an interception. He added just 25 yards on 10 rushing attempts, vanishing when it mattered the most.

Wisconsin 31, Ohio State 18 -- The Buckeyes were No. 1 in the national polls for what seemed like 45 minutes. Then, they traveled to Wisconsin on Saturday, got the stuffing knocked out of them, and promptly lost their ranking as top dog.

Ohio State was already considered a bogus No. 1, having won just one legitimate game against Miami (FL). But an Alabama loss to South Carolina in Week 6 handed the keys over to Ohio State, who quickly handed the keys over to Oregon.

Mississippi State 10, Florida 7 -- Mississippi State's quiet win over Florida gave the Bulldogs their first win in Gainesville, Florida since 1965. It also marked the first time in 22 years that the Gators had lost three games in a row.

Naturally, idiotic Florida fans are calling for head coach Urban Meyer's head, starting the site FireUrbanMeyer.com. Meyer guided Florida to National Championships in 2006 and 2008, and entered the season with a 57-10 record in five seasons. Surely it's been a horrific season for Florida, who was expected to compete for another National Championship this year. But trying to fire him? Let's not forget what happened with the Ron Zook era.

Kansas State 59, Kansas 7 -- At first glance, it wasn't a big game, at least not on the national scale. Neither team ranked, it was a game most people outside the state probably didn't care about.

But Kansas State laid the smack down on in-state rival Kansas, leading 52-0 until the Jayhawks scored a garbage-time touchdown. The loss -- if you can even call it that -- dropped Kansas to 2-4 on the season, and sucked the life out of any recruiting battles the Jayhawks and Kansas State were involved in.

Heisman Trophy update v2.0

2010-10-20T07:29:00.006-04:00

While Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett was on the sideline being examined by medical staff, Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton was willing the Tigers to a 65-43 win, and climbing the Heisman Trophy ladder.

Newton tallied 328 yards of offense and four touchdowns in the primetime win, and has led Auburn to a 7-0 record and a No. 5 ranking. The 6-foot-6, 247-pound quarterback has been phenomenal, completing 66% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.

But he's been even deadlier on the ground, where he's averaged 123 yards rushing per game, and added 12 rushing touchdowns.

Defending Heisman Trophy winner Alabama running back Mark Ingram has slowly fallen off the radar, despite having a pretty solid season so far. Ingram has 456 rushing yards and six touchdowns, but missed the first two games of the season, which may have crippled his hopes.

Ingram certainly doesn't deserve the nod over Oklahoma running back DeMarco Murray, who has 150 carries for 663 yards and 11 touchdowns, as the Sooners debuted at No. 1 in the BCS rankings. And as I wrote a few weeks ago, Murray at +6000 to win the award was a terrific value.

Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez, a sexy sleeper pick as of a week ago, has also damaged his Heisman stock. Martinez finished 4-for-12 for 63 yards and 13 carries for 21 yards in a home loss to Texas. It knocked Nebraska out of the top 10 and probably cost Martinez a shot at the trophy.

Others receiving consideration? Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, Oregon running back LaMichael James, Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor, Wisconsin running back John Clay and Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson.

Minnesota fires Tim Brewster

2010-10-19T07:54:00.010-04:00

Just 12 days ago, I wrote about Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster's seat warming up.

The fourth-year head coach was canned after the Golden Gophers got out to a 1-6 start this year.

He was 15-30 in three-and-a-half years, and just 6-21 in conference play. With that came a 0-10 record against rivals Wisconsin and Iowa, a big no-no to fans and boosters.

When Brewster was hired, it was a bit of a puzzling move: he had never been a head coach or coordinator in college or the NFL, according to ESPN.

Typically, colleges will let a coach finish out the season. But Minnesota's rough start, coupled with Brewster's historic lack of success and inability to win a trophy game, was enough for athletic director Joel Maturi to pull the plug. Minnesota is currently tied with Washington State for worst record in a BCS conference.

"Minnesota can and should be competitive in the Big Ten. We have a great facility here at TCF Bank Stadium. We are a world class academic institution. One of America's finest cities. And contrary to published reports, the resources are available. They are in place. There is a commitment to having a winning football program at the University of Minnesota," Maturi told reporters on Sunday.

Despite a 1-6 record (and a six-game losing streak), Minnesota has lost two games by three points or less, and five of its six games by 11 points or less.

So, while the Gophers look for Brewster's replacement, Jeff Horton, the team's offensive coordinator, will serve as the interim head coach.

Minnesota has already reached out to alumnus Tony Dungy, a future Hall of Fame coach with the Indianapolis Colts. But Dungy quickly shot down the idea, leaving the door on the job wide open.

The school could also pursue former Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach, whose antics got him fired, despite a successful tenure in Lubbock, Texas.

College football's best unbeatens

2010-10-18T07:36:00.000-04:00

As it stands, there are currently 10 teams undefeated after Week 7 in the college football landscape. Four of them (Missouri and Oklahoma, Auburn and LSU) are playing each other next week, so the number will shrink by at least two.

But as the first BCS rankings were released on Sunday, with Oklahoma (6-0) and Oregon (6-0) atop the polls, it became clear that those two are considered the cream of the crop of the cream of the crop. The best of the best. The top undefeated teams.

Boise State (6-0) checks in at No. 3 on the BCS polls, and with WAC foe Nevada dropping a game to Hawaii, the Broncos will have difficulty convincing the committee to leapfrog either Oklahoma or Oregon in the case that both teams finish undefeated.

With so many teams still undefeated, BCS computers actually list the top seven teams as combining for a 46-0 record. And besides Boise State, fellow mid-majors TCU (7-0) and Utah (6-0) would have a tough time jumping over Oklahoma or Oregon in the rankings, given their in-conference schedules.

TCU probably has the most legitimate argument if the Horned Frogs finish undefeated. Wins over Oregon State, Baylor, BYU, Air Force, San Diego State and Utah is a legitimate profile, especially for a team in the same conference as New Mexico and Wyoming.

The most under-the-radar undefeated teams? Michigan State (7-0), Missouri (6-0) and Oklahoma State (6-0), who are ranked No. 7, No. 11 and No. 14 in the BCS polls, respectively. They combine for two wins against top 25 teams, though, meaning their resumes aren't as strong as other unbeatens.

Week 7 bets

2010-10-14T18:00:00.001-04:00

Last week was fantastic: up 18.27 units and finally not just treading water this season. It was about time. With half the season already in the rearview mirror, I want to make some good coin in the second half and really close out 2010 strong. I'm aiming for a +100 unit year, and right now we're at almost +20 units.

Week 6: 6-1-0, +18.27 units
Season recap: 41-35-0, +19.87 units

I rode everything last week on Missouri, and it ended up being a great call. In addition to being the last game pending of the night for me, the Tigers won comfortably (26-0) and I ended up 6-1 on the week. I'll take that!

This week, there are a lot of games I initially had my eye on, and whittled down to a much smaller list. I'm on the following in all of my plays: Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame, Florida State, Utah and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Oklahoma is coming off a bye week and has Iowa State at home. Alabama hosts Ole Miss, which is coming off a bye week. Notre Dame is at home against a terrible Western Michigan team. Florida State is at home against a mediocre Boston College team, and Utah is on the road at Wyoming.

And I typically don't ever use NFL games in my plays, but I do love the Steelers this week, coming off a bye week, getting Ben Roethlisberger back, and facing off against the Cleveland Browns, who are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback.

Oklahoma -1850 ML + Alabama -1200 ML + Notre Dame -2100 ML + Florida State -1500 ML + Utah -1300 ML + Pittsburgh Steelers -800 ML -- 10.99u to win 6u
Iowa -165 ML + those six -- 2.02u to win 3u
West Virginia -390 ML + those six -- 1.5u to win 1.41u
Florida -310 ML + those six -- 1.5u to win 1.57u
Indiana -450 ML + those six -- 1.5u to win 1.33u
Michigan State -265 ML + those six -- 1.5u to win 1.69u

Total risk: 19.01u to win 15 units

Mid-season conference predictions

2010-10-14T08:02:00.000-04:00

As former Yankee and long-time quote machine Yogi Berra would probably say, it's not too late to make predictions until it's too late. So, halfway through the season, here are some bold (and some not-so-bold) predictions as to how the rest of the college football season will shake out, with conference champions anointed.

SEC Championship Game -- Alabama over Florida in a rematch of the 2009 SEC Championship Game, and Florida's second shot to beat Alabama this year. Spoiler alert: Alabama makes it three in a row.

Big 12 Championship Game -- Oklahoma over Nebraska, as both teams enter the game undefeated.

MAC Championship Game -- Miami (OH) over Toledo, marking a complete turnaround from the RedHawks' forgettable 1-11 season last year.

Conference USA Championship Game -- SMU over East Carolina, not the boldest prediction given that both teams are undefeated nearly halfway through their conference slate.

ACC Championship Game -- Florida State over Virginia Tech, despite the Hokies' 0-2 start.

Big East champions -- West Virginia, with four home games and not another game against a ranked team all year.
Big East runner-up -- Rutgers, but does it even matter? This conference is a one-horse race.

Big Ten champions -- Ohio State, which loses to either Wisconsin or Iowa on the road.
Big Ten runner-up -- Michigan State, which avoids playing Ohio State this season, but travels to Iowa and Penn State.

Mountain West champions -- TCU, which goes undefeated and gives the NCAA another reason to implement a playoff system.
Mountain West runner-up -- Utah, despite four road games (including trips to Air Force and Notre Dame) and a game against TCU.

Pac-10 champions -- Oregon, where the Ducks are one of a handful of teams to go undefeated. Except Oregon reaches the National Championship, unlike TCU and Boise State.
Pac-10 runner-up -- Stanford, as the Cardinal return to the Top 10 before season's end.

Sun Belt champions -- Troy, which has a few speedbumps in its way.
Sun Belt runner-up -- Middle Tennessee, and with a losing record.

WAC champions -- Boise State, as if there was ever any doubt.
WAC runner-up -- Nevada, who finishes with one loss all season (to Boise State).

Why Iowa will beat Michigan

2010-10-13T08:07:00.008-04:00

Heading into Ann Arbor this weekend, the 4-1 Iowa Hawkeyes are 3.5-point favorites over Michigan (5-1).

And, despite being playing in front of one of the most hostile environments in all of college football, the Hawkeyes will win (and cover the spread).

While Michigan hangs its hopes on the shoulders of Heisman hopeful quarterback Denard Robinson, who has carried the ball 119 times for 991 yards and nine touchdowns this season, it's important to consider the run defenses he's faced in victories this season:

Bowling Green, which has the 118th-ranked run defense.
Indiana, which has the 98th-ranked run defense.
Connecticut, which has the 61st-ranked run defense.
Notre Dame, which has the 53rd-ranked run defense.

And Michigan's defense isn't just average. It's bad. It's allowed 34 points in half its games this season, ranks 55th in run defense and has the 119th-ranked pass defense.

Now, Robinson faces his toughest test yet: Iowa's 2nd-ranked run defense. And, coming off a bye week, you can bet that the Hawkeyes have studied film of the Wolverines' loss to Michigan State over and over. Iowa has outscored opponents 35 to 4 in their wins this season, and have allowed just four touchdowns all year.

Iowa senior quarterback Ricky Stanzi has been stellar this year, and should have a field day with the Wolverines' pass defense. He's averaging nearly 250 yards per game and has thrown 10 touchdowns to two interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have a Robinson of their own: running back Adam Robinson is averaging 96 yards per game rushing on 4.9 yards per carry, and has six touchdowns in five games.

If (and when) Iowa shuts down Michigan's most viable scoring option in Denard Robinson, the Hawkeyes will leave with a comfortable win and head back home 5-1.

QB Keenum wants medical redshirt

2010-10-12T09:44:00.006-04:00

Houston quarterback Case Keenum, injured for the season in the Cougars' Week 3 loss to UCLA, is appealing to the NCAA for a sixth year medical redshirt.

Keenum redshirted as a freshman, leaving his only option to continue playing college football a medical redshirt.

According to the NCAA, a medical redshirt "can be granted by the governing body for a season lost completely or almost completely to injury. If a player plays in 30% or less of his/her team's games, then suffers a season ending injury, a medical redshirt may be granted."

As Keenum was injured in the third game of the season, he may still be eligible.

It's understandable, as mid-major quarterbacks often put up huge numbers and are less focused on a career in the NFL. Keenum is nearly 4,000 yards behind all-time passing leader Timmy Chang of Hawaii, and a full, healthy season would put Keenum within striking distance of the record.

After a fairly successful freshman year, which included Keenum completing 69% of his passes for 188 yards per game and 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, the Cougars quarterback upped his game as a sophomore and junior.

In 2008 and 2009, he threw 88 touchdowns to 26 interceptions, and averaged more than 395 yards passing per game.

Behind Keenum, Houston entered the Top 25 after Week 2, debuting at No. 23. The Cougars were the clear favorite to win Conference USA.

Gamecocks pull one out

2010-10-11T11:59:00.010-04:00

"South Carolina is usually good for one huge win every year, but it won't be this week," I told Wade Neely of WKSR 1420 in Pulaski, Tennessee last Friday.

Though the Gamecocks are a very good team, probably the best team Steve Spurrier has put together in his five-and-a-half years in South Carolina, it didn't seem possible.

Alabama looked like it could beat the Buffalo Bills for the first five weeks of the season.

But it happened. Convincingly, too. South Carolina knocked off top-ranked Alabama, 35-21. And it wasn't particularly close.

The Gamecocks got out to a 21-3 lead in the second quarter behind two touchdown passes from quarterback Stephen Garcia to wide receiver Alshon Jeffery.

In a game where Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy, wide receiver Julio Jones and running backs Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson were expected to steal the show, it was Garcia, Jeffery and true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore who upstaged the visiting Crimson Tide.

Ingram and Richardson combined for 17 carries for 64 yards, and were held out of the end zone all game. Lattimore ran 23 times for 90 yards and two touchdowns, and added two receptions for 16 yards and another touchdown.

McElroy played great, completing 27 of 34 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns. But it was Garcia's 17-for-20 performance for 201 yards, three touchdowns and an interception that helped seal the victory.

Alabama's defense, which had allowed just three touchdowns in five previous games, allowed three touchdowns on South Carolina's first three possessions on Saturday.

The loss knocked Alabama (5-1) down to No. 8 in the country, and vaulted South Carolina (4-1) to No. 10. It's still plenty early for Alabama to rebound by winning out and still have a chance for the National Championship, though. And it's clear that South Carolina is the class of the SEC East this year.

Week 6 bets

2010-10-08T14:39:00.000-04:00

After losing 13.6 units in Week 4, Week 5 was much better, finishing up more than 8 units. I'm on a quest to win 100 units before the end of the season, so I've got to get my act together ASAP.

Week 4 was a good one, but it could have been better if Georgia hadn't blown a nearly sure thing when it fumbled late against Colorado, costing the Bulldogs the game. That would've been a five-unit swing in our direction. Likewise, Texas Tech was never really in the game against Iowa State, but if it had won, it would have been a HUGE week for us.

This week, the teams I'm using in all of my parlays are: Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Missouri, Virginia Tech and Air Force. Okie State is on the road at Louisiana-Lafayette, but coming off a bye week. Wisconsin has Minnesota at home, West Virginia is coming off the bye to play UNLV, Missouri is at home against Colorado, Virginia Tech hosts Central Michigan and Air Force is home against Colorado State.

Mizzou is the key to this week. At -440, it's by far my riskiest play. But I like the Tigers, coming off a bye week, entering the game 4-0, and playing at home. Meanwhile, Colorado (3-1) is on the road coming off a hugely emotional win over Georgia. Plus, Colorado's secondary is beat up: it's two starters out for the game, and another one (Sandersfeld) questionable. I really like Mizzou in this spot.

Week 5:
1. Missouri -440 ML + Oklahoma State -2200 ML + Wisconsin -1600 ML + West Virginia -4000 ML + Virginia Tech -1800 ML + Air Force -2900 ML -- 19.02u to win 10u
2. Georgia Tech -375 ML + those six -- 1.5u to win 1.4u
3. Georgia -440 ML + those six -- 1.5u to win 1.31u
4. Florida International -370 ML + those six -- 1.49u to win 1.4u
5. NC State -360 ML + those six -- 1.47u to win 1.4u
6. Michigan State +170 ML + those six -- 1.28u to win 4u
7. Wake Forest +150 ML + those six -- 1.24u to win 3.5u

Only seven picks this week, and a couple of them (Michigan State and Wake Forest) are a bit risky. But I like the odds I'm getting on them, and I obviously love the rest of the card. Good luck this week.

Total risk: 27.51u to win 23.01u

Coaches on the hot seat

2010-10-07T07:46:00.000-04:00

Just over eight weeks ago, I broke down the top five coaches on the hot seat. At the time, I listed Michigan's Rich Rodriguez, Illinois' Ron Zook, LSU's Les Miles, Colorado's Dan Hawkins and Minnesota's Tim Brewster.

Since then, Michigan and LSU are 5-0. The Wolverines are the No. 18 team in the country, with a notable road win over rival Notre Dame. The Tigers are No. 12, having beaten North Carolina on the road and West Virginia and Tennessee at home.

It's safe to move Rodriguez and Miles off the hot seat for now. Illinois is 2-2, standing pretty much where everybody thought it'd be: losses to Missouri and Ohio State, and wins over Northern and Southern Illinois.

Colorado's Dan Hawkins' seat may have cooled down a bit, thanks to the Buffaloes' 3-1 record, including a 29-27 win over Georgia last week. But Hawkins' seat is still warm, and with the Big 12 conference schedule starting up, it'd be surprising to see Colorado end up with more than five wins this year.

CoachesHotSeat.com has the following coaches as their top five: Brewster, Washington State's Paul Wulff, Texas A&M's Mike Sherman, New Mexico's Mike Locksley and Georgia's Mark Richt.

ESPN senior writer Ryan McGee ranks UNC's Butch Davis as his No. 1, as the Tar Heels have dealt all season with accusations of academic cheating and improper benefits.

McGee then puts Brewster at No. 2, Wulff at No. 3, Locksley at No. 4 and Richt at No. 5.

Minnesota is now 1-4, with four straight home losses, putting Brewster's job in serious jeopardy. He's just 15-28 in four years with the Golden Gophers, and 6-19 in the Big Ten.

Wulff's job is looking dicier by the day, as the Washington State coach is now just 4-25 in two and a half seasons. Washington State hasn't been to a bowl game since 2003, and fired former head coach Bill Doba after going 30-29 in five years. It would be shocking if Wulff doesn't pass Doba's losses by the end of the season, which would probably mean that the Cougars are looking for a head coach by January.

In New Mexico, Locksley is 1-15 in a year and a half, and despite bringing in some high-profile recruits such as Ohio State transfer Lamaar Thomas and West Virginia transfer Deon Long, you can only lose so many games before you lose your job, no matter how good you are at recruiting.

Lastly, Richt's tenure in Georgia has been interesting to watch, as the Bulldogs coach has completely fallen out of favor in the last year and a half. With a 90-26 record coming into this year, including seven bowl wins in eight years and six 10-win seasons in the same time period, one would think Richt would be safe in Athens. But a 1-4 start to this year, including four straight losses, and everybody in Georgia is barking for a new head coach.

A lesson in QB geography

2010-10-06T07:33:00.000-04:00

It's common knowledge that California, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas are hotbeds for high school football. But Rivals.com ran an interesting story last week breaking down where the starting quarterbacks from each of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams are from.

The results are interesting, though not earth-shattering.

California leads the way, producing 23 starting FBS quarterbacks. Of note are USC's Matt Barkley, Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, Notre Dame's Dayne Crist and Utah's Jordan Wynn.

Florida produced 18 starters, but boasts a better crop of players. It sent starters to Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami (FL), Michigan and West Virginia. There must be something in the water in the Sunshine State.

Texas has 19 quarterbacks starting in the FBS, and has by far the best group of quarterbacks. That's not entirely surprising, as high school football is as serious as a heart attack in the Lone Star State. Texas has produced SEC starters Alabama's Greg McElroy and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett.

It's also responsible for Arizona's Nick Foles, Baylor's Robert Griffin III, Florida State's Christian Ponder, Oregon's Darron Thomas, Stanford's Andrew Luck, Texas' Garrett Gilbert, Texas A&M's Jerrod Johnson, TCU's Andy Dalton and Texas Tech's Taylor Potts.

There are also several states that haven't produced a starting quarterback, including Alaska, Rhode Island, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Montana, North and South Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire and Wyoming, among others.

The biggest -- or most surprising -- state without a starter? New York, with more than 19 million residents, can't come up with one FBS quarterback. Same with Colorado, the 24th-biggest state.

And the smallest state that has given FBS a quarterback? Hawaii, which actually has two starters: Hawaii's Bryant Moniz and Ole Miss' Jeremiah Masoli. Two starters coming from a state of 1.3 million. Really makes New York look soft.

Lesson learned? If you need a quarterback, head to Texas, Florida and California, in that order.

Week 5 winners and losers

2010-10-04T07:27:00.011-04:00

As another weekend of college football came to a close, conference championship races became a bit clearer. Oklahoma emerged victorious from the Red River Rivalry, while Florida State and Virginia Tech won ACC road games to take the lead in the Atlantic and Coastal divisions.

Some teams left Saturday feeling great; others left nauseated. Let's break down the weekend's winners and losers.

WINNERS:
Oregon -- The Ducks rose to the occasion and stomped No. 9 Stanford, 52-31 on Saturday night. After trailing 21-3 at the end of the first quarter, Oregon's duo of quarterback Darron Thomas and running back LaMichael James combined for seven touchdowns. Thomas was electrifying, finishing with 238 yards passing and 117 rushing, while James added 31 carries for 257 yards. With the win, Oregon rose to No. 3 in the rankings.

Alabama -- It doesn't seem to matter who Alabama plays each week. The result is always the same: a convincing win for the Crimson Tide. This week's victim was Florida, who some pegged as a National Championship contender coming into the season. Alabama blew the game wide open early, going on to win 31-6 after putting it in neutral after the third quarter. Some would argue it's Alabama's title to lose at this point.

LOSERS:

Michigan's defense -- The Wolverines beat Indiana 42-35, but nearly beat themselves on Saturday. Make no mistake about it: Indiana, despite a 3-1 record, is bad. Not average, but flat out bad. Yet, the Hoosiers were able to rack up 568 yards of offense -- 480 of which came in the air -- and took the game to the wire. If Michigan wants to get to the next level, it'll have to figure out how to stop good teams, much less bad ones.

Boise State -- A 59-0 road win over New Mexico State was pretty much all Boise State could have done, but that pesky strength of schedule came into play. Instead of staying put as the No. 3-ranked team in the country, the Broncos dropped to No. 4 as Oregon's win over No. 9 Stanford allowed the Ducks to leapfrog Boise State.

Georgia -- Nice knowing you, Mark Richt! The Georgia coach is almost definitely on his way out the door after leading the Bulldogs to a 1-4 record this year. The latest stumbling block? A botched handoff in field goal range while down two points late against Colorado. The Bulldogs simply needed to run out the clock and center the ball, but turned it over and it cost them the game.

USC/Penn State/Texas -- For the first time in I don't know how long, Southern Cal, Penn State and Texas are all unranked, and deservedly so. USC is 4-1 with wins over nobody of note, and a recent last-minute loss to Washington. Penn State fell to 3-2 with a lopsided loss to Iowa on Saturday, and Texas is 3-2 after losing its second game in a row -- most recently to Oklahoma.