tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6513826714307892342024-09-07T11:28:12.483-07:00Insights into Risk Management & Financial MarketsI dedicate this blog to readers who considers insurance as part of
risk management.
I analyse inter market trends (eg stocks, currencies, commodities etc)
to gain insights into investors and speculators mentality.
With these insights, I use Sun Tzu's Art of War principles for
pro-active and reactive investment decisions.
Revisit the blog for timely updates to 'current' posts.Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.comBlogger156125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-43970177803082019732013-09-21T14:15:00.001-07:002013-09-21T14:15:41.934-07:00Insights into Risk Management & Financial Markets: Do you think I am an idiotInsights into Risk Management & Financial Markets: Do you think I am an idiot: 2013 is the year where markets is ‘played’ to the tune of QE and its noises. Not depression, inflation, growth, etc. My earlier post ...Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-69438640829986693522013-09-21T14:02:00.002-07:002013-09-21T14:19:54.047-07:00Do you think I am a financial idiot?
2013 is the year where markets is ‘played’ to the tune of QE
and its noises. Not depression, inflation, growth, etc.
My earlier post on GFC, QE1 QE2 (QE3, QE infinity, QE
finite) what’s next is the series of events on a blueprint of how financial
markets is designed to trend.
Why QE? Global (and US) QE were designed to lower long term interest
rates with the objective of improving growth! Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-42913766763056051202012-06-12T06:00:00.003-07:002012-06-12T06:19:24.488-07:00What is missing in your financial plan?A financial plan is an on-going process of fact finding, analyzing your current budget and financial goals to accomplish the final financial goal or a set of circumstances, e.g. elimination of debt, retirement preparedness, etc. If you have a sound financial plan, you could probably ignore the rest but please send me a bouquet if you find something that is 'of thought' in my post. Thanks in Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-12489345973564003822012-06-07T22:32:00.001-07:002012-06-07T22:53:38.738-07:00Why financial markets are not going your trend?Financial markets are not predictable.
Financial markets are not logical most of the times.Most would wonder why Asian equity markets plunge while US Dow rallied for a third day or US markets ended mixed.
While
· China’s ‘good news’ rate cut spooks market from MarketWatch
· Bernanke Sees Easing Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-77008159474747207042012-06-04T05:24:00.001-07:002012-06-04T05:51:48.255-07:00China Making Contingency Plans for a Greek ExitThe above post was just released from CNBC. It discusses a call for contingency plans from the China authorities for a possible Greek exit.
As you probably know, news providers are eager to broadcast the latest news. There are times when they do not verify the source of information. Do you recall the Spain-IMF rescue which was later denied?
Whichever, we too, have a contingency plan.If the abovePatrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-657798584276253372012-06-04T01:22:00.002-07:002012-06-04T05:28:02.521-07:00Think deep and hard before you investThink deep and hard before you invest / advise / share.The markets had been tough since 2010. Most (if not all) investors are losing their capital. Even if you are a ‘pro’, your experience would have assisted you to cushion the fall in value.
I am suggesting that you leave your investment to the ‘experienced’ professionals. Let me try to explain. Are you able to replace the professional Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-90482287230107011092012-05-31T21:04:00.005-07:002012-06-04T05:29:41.378-07:002012 Q1 was a bull trapThe Year 2011 was indeed a difficult year for the financial markets. We had the earthquake, tsunami, US credit rating and Europe issues, etc.
To cushion the fall in 2011 Q3, major economies intervened. The effects started to materialise in late 2011 Q4 as it takes time. Most of 2012 Q1 rally was spanned by the massive pumping of liquidity from major economies not forgetting from Japan and Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-70031967980404249032012-05-31T04:07:00.000-07:002012-05-31T04:07:10.340-07:002014 FIFA World Cup Since the last World Cup in 2010, it is widely rumored that Greece would emerge as champions in the 2014 FIFA World Cup. There’s somehow a twist to the World Cup. Instead of playing with a soccer ball, the players are kicking the can!
Greece is widely rumored to reach the finals. In the Year 2010, they scored a goal allowing them to qualify the qualifying rounds. A goal is their first bailout Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-37748138535909915932012-05-30T00:06:00.003-07:002012-05-30T21:39:09.746-07:00Declines in Asian Bank, Property Stocks Yield Rich DividendsThe above headline is extracted from CNBC.
Pause. (While you are reading the headline thru the hyperlink generated). Hyperlink - fixed; There were amendments to the original title and hence the link!What comes into your mind? Think out of the BOX?
There are several (many, in fact) that crosses my mind. I like to post, just two points that cross my mind.First of all, many would agree that the Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-76270217067312457492012-05-29T22:09:00.007-07:002012-06-04T22:46:14.092-07:00Sun Tzu Art of WarMost of us have heard of SUN Tzu. There was a ‘rumour’ Sun Tzu wrote a script on the Art of War. After his era, kings, prince, emperors, etc were searching for the script. Eventually the script was found.
One of Sun Tzu’s knowledge was related to understanding the weather. You may have heard how he used the weather to his advantage to win his battles (544 BC - 496 BC) during the Warring States Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-40102286430962412592012-05-29T02:44:00.002-07:002012-05-30T08:18:13.555-07:00Greece needs more than an AMDAMD is a medical term for Advance Medical Directive. As the name implies it is an advance of a medical directive in the event the individual is depended on a life support system.
I hope most of you had been informed by your financial planner that there exists an AMD in Singapore. Currently, there is no cost to planning an AMD. The cost of not knowing/planning/executing an AMD is the Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-81431471568624973742012-05-28T23:02:00.004-07:002012-05-30T08:14:36.980-07:00Two bold predictions for SingaporeIf you have been following my posts – risk management, the following will impact most of us
1. There will be a major change in the insurance industry as Singaporeans are getting more insurance savvy and demand for better and suitable products
2. In housing loans, while most of you have been debating and timing between fix, floating or hybrid interest rates, didPatrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-81457527772492816442012-05-28T22:29:00.002-07:002012-05-29T03:33:45.750-07:00Boom Gloom and DoomWhen all seems Boom Gloom and Doom in the month of May, the reverse happens.
My posts had been helping you, ‘the audience’ to avoid bear markets as far back as May 2011 and market rally as far back Nov 2011. In my previous posts on market trends
Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What's next
The following abstract...
“However, having provided all the bad news.... here Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-17096194841350695452012-05-23T01:08:00.006-07:002012-05-30T08:16:34.126-07:00Are your existing insurance plan suitable?
Thank you, audience for a well received posting on
· In search of higher income and better standard of living. What's missing?
· Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What's next?
I had lots of emails and queries regarding suitability. We have talks/seminar on investment Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-42629117451186215552012-05-21T04:07:00.005-07:002012-05-23T01:24:25.892-07:00In search of higher income and better standard of living. What's missing?In my 16 years of practical experience being in the financial industry, I’ve assisted a handful in claims – death and diagnosis of major illness. Fortunately, all claims were processed and approved. Their loved ones and dependants are ‘well’ taken care off.
I am writing to you as I am very concern for most of you – in the area of personal financial risk management.
My primary objective as a Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-66982249062607349802012-05-20T23:31:00.000-07:002012-05-20T23:51:19.993-07:00Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Ends. Financial market plunges. What's next
The
above article commenced mid February with Part 2 in March and Part 3 in April.
My benchmark for the tug of war list of events is the DJI ranging from 12800 to
13000. I had picked the above title, then, is because my speculation was that
market would trend sideways until
the next key events.
The
DJI did not reach 13800 which is my technical resistance. The technical support
was 12,400 whichPatrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-8407541336706500742012-04-10T14:17:00.000-07:002012-04-10T14:17:12.427-07:00Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Part 3Here
comes the correction! If you had followed my post, I seriously hope you didn’t buy
HIGH and (later) SELL low with fear being the current sentiment.
Since
my last post in early March, the title post remains the same, ‘Tug of war’,
meaning I called for markets to trend sideways. My speculation then was that
the equity market would not have any more energy or the catalysts to proceed Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-8565790476105368212012-03-06T06:20:00.001-08:002012-03-06T07:02:33.568-08:00Buy HIGH sell LOW, Huh?A sea of red from Asia, UK, Europe and to the US....It was just only a week ago where most, if not everyone were so excited with the global market rally.
The US major indexes were testing the resistance;· Dow Jones Industrial was at 13000· S&P 500 was at 1370 and · &Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-74305309809266147442012-03-02T02:57:00.003-08:002012-03-02T03:50:47.301-08:00Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Part 2A similar post was published last week on Feb 23rd. Since then, there were a lot of happening in Asia and on both sides of the Atlantic.
As you probably know, Europe was overwhelmed with their 2nd LTRO, US had a better revised GDP estimate, expansion in Manufacturing data from Asia to US and Bernanke’s testimonial. There were lots of volatility with the commodity currencies strengthening; the Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-25704468245782422442012-02-29T09:24:00.000-08:002012-02-29T09:24:56.178-08:00Focus for Feb 29th 2012In my previous post, US Consumer confidence is high, what’s next? The focus was on US confidence data and oil prices. However, the focus for Feb 29th was different.
Amidst the news released for Europe’s 2nd LTRO, US GDP 2nd estimate of 3%, better Chicago PMI data, am I correct to say you would expect that the US indexes would have surge north? Not so fast!
At point of writing and after Fed Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-15166907428422738102012-02-28T19:06:00.009-08:002012-02-29T00:10:39.576-08:00US Consumer confidence is high, what’s next?As you probably know, the US indexes closed ABOVE psychological resistance last night.
The Dow closed at 13005.10; S&P500 closes 1372.18 while the NASDAQ closed 2986.76.
There were 3 economic data released last night;
· Durable orders at -4.0% vs. -1.4% expected; Durable Orders ex Transportation at -3.2% vs. 0.2% expected. This is very negative
Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-20552697219606435722012-02-24T23:53:00.000-08:002012-02-24T23:53:34.127-08:00Another WTF happening, Feb 29th 2012 If you’re invested, you should take note of Feb 29th. It’s a Wednesday. It’s also the end of month, lots of volatility due to month end closing. Thursday is the beginning of a new month where real money tends to come in. And Friday is the end of week.
In addition to the above, Feb 29th has important US data namely US GDP 2nd estimate, Chicago PMI, and the Fed Beige Book. All of which may lead Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-70984281654463080932012-02-23T08:59:00.003-08:002012-03-07T20:01:26.169-08:00Tug of war - Bull vs. Bear Part 1If you’re wondering why most of my posts concentrate mostly in US markets, the obvious answer is that the US is still the largest economy on Earth. And the reserve currency is the US dollar.
When they energise, high yield assets go north. When they fall sick, high yield assets go south. It is simple as that. That does not mean we should ignore China or Japan.
The DOW had been ranging between Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-89329982536473667462012-02-22T09:47:00.004-08:002012-02-22T11:24:53.962-08:00Is a market correction coming?The Dow is being attack by household lizards at the 13000 level. But, that is as far as it can go - similar to household lizards which loiter just around the ceiling.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Greek deal is done. It is history. There is no default (yet!). The can is just kicked further down the road.
I repeat, "The Greek deal is done". What’s next? What is the GDP and Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-651382671430789234.post-38162796106654113012012-02-20T19:22:00.002-08:002012-02-21T10:27:55.840-08:00Dow is being attack at 13000 after Greek package(Posted Tuesday in Singapore, 1120 AM, UPDATED 0625PM )
The Dow and S&P is seen testing the resistance level of 13,000 (broken) and 1370 respectively - 3 points short! The US markets open higher, fell below the flatline and is seen testing the resistance level before lunch. Traders should follow the Dow theory before making a decision. Earlier in the day...
The much Patrick Seehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02687286699713288506noreply@blogger.com0