Gasoline prices at the pump often increase immediately when crude oil prices rise, yet they decline at a frustratingly slow pace when oil prices drop. This asymmetry frustrates drivers and fuels accusations of price gouging from politicians. The reason, however, stems from the economics of the petroleum supply chain, not conspiracy or corporate greed. 

Gasoline sold today is typically refined from crude oil purchased weeks earlier. Refining, transportation, storage, and distribution to retail stations take time, often 2 to 6 weeks or longer, depending on logistics, contracts, and regional infrastructure. When crude oil prices fall sharply, refiners and retailers continue to process and sell fuel made from higher-cost inventory already in the system. Cheaper crude must first be purchased, refined, and moved through the pipeline before it reaches the pump. Gas stations, the vast majority of which are independently owned, rotate their existing stock gradually rather than dumping it at a loss. This creates a natural delay on the downside.

On the upside, the dynamic reverses. Rising crude prices prompt quicker adjustments because businesses look forward. They anticipate higher replacement costs for future inventory and begin raising prices to protect margins. Consumer demand also plays a role, as drivers often accelerate purchases when prices are expected to rise, thereby tightening near-term supply. This is not unique to gasoline. Similar inventory lags appear in many commodity markets with long production and distribution chains, from coffee to steel. The difference with fuel is its visibility at every corner station, and thus, the price is more politically sensitive.

Multiple economic studies have examined this “rockets and feathers” phenomenon, in which prices rise like rockets, but fall like feathers. After controlling for taxes, seasonality, competition levels, and other variables, the asymmetry persists across regions and time periods, though its intensity fluctuates with market conditions, refinery utilization rates, and inventory levels.

Importantly, researchers have found little evidence that the pattern results from widespread collusion among oil companies or retailers. Instead, it emerges from rational incentives to hold higher-cost inventory during price drops and to hedge against future cost increases during price rises.

Despite periodic political claims of gouging during, official findings tell a sustained and consistent story. In 2008, in a period of very high gasoline prices, the Institute for Energy Research asked a straightforward question: How many times has the Federal Trade Commission found evidence of price gouging by energy companies? The answer was none. Subsequent investigations into the 2021–2022 price increases reached the same conclusion: price movements reflected global crude prices, supply disruptions, OPEC+ decisions, refinery outages, and seasonal demand, not domestic collusion or misconduct. Any investigation done by the Trump administration will surely return the same findings.

Proposals for price-gouging statutes or windfall-profits taxes surface quickly whenever prices rise, because they allow politicians to assign blame to identifiable “big oil” villains. These measures rarely lower prices at the pump. In many cases, they risk creating the opposite problem in shortages. When retailers cannot recover replacement costs or face penalties, they may reduce supply or exit marginal markets. Historical precedents are instructive, as Nixon-Carter era price controls in the 1970s produced long lines, rationing, and widespread shortages. Additionally, the 1980s windfall profits tax on domestic producers reduced investment, slowed U.S. output, and increased reliance on imported oil. Raising taxes or imposing punitive measures on U.S. energy companies today would likely produce similar results with higher long-term costs for consumers and greater dependence on foreign suppliers.

If the Trump administration wants gas prices to fall (as we all do), it should withdraw the EPA’s latest Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates. The RFS program, created in 2005, requires refiners and importers to blend ever-increasing volumes of biofuels into the nation’s gasoline and diesel supply. Originally designed to reduce dependence on foreign oil, the program has become obsolete: the United States is now a net exporter of petroleum and refined products.

According to EPRINC, the estimated additional cost from the RFS has risen sharply from 15 cents per gallon in January 2024 to 45 cents per gallon as of May 2026. Based on the current 45-cent-per-gallon estimate and annual U.S. gasoline consumption of approximately 140 billion gallons, the total annual economic burden on consumers exceeds $66 billion. 

As you can see, these RFS mandates function as a regressive tax on American workers, families, and businesses, hitting hardest at the pump, even as inflation and high energy costs remain top concerns. 

Gasoline prices are a predictable consequence of how crude oil is refined into fuel at the pump. Inventory lags, forward-looking pricing on the way up, and gradual stock rotation on the way down explain most of the observed behavior. Regulatory records and economic studies show that market fundamentals, rather than malicious behavior, drive the vast majority of price movements. Blaming energy companies may score short-term political points, but it distracts from the policies that actually influence long-term supply. Withdrawing the EPA’s latest RFS mandate is a more tangible path to lower prices than another senseless investigation from the Department of Justice.

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Invenergy will invest a portion of the $765 million in five new natural gas plants located in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. It is the nation’s largest privately held developer of energy projects, including solar, wind, and natural gas plants, as well as battery storage primarily used to provide backup power for wind and solar plants. The company had paid about $800 million for the four offshore leases in an auction held by the Biden administration. The largest lease in the New York Bight, between New Jersey and Long Island, was purchased at a 2022 auction and covers nearly 84,000 acres. The company had canceled it in November because of challenges with the supply chain, equipment, and vendors, as well as changing regulatory requirements.

According to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, offshore wind projects made more financial sense under the Biden administration, which offered lucrative tax credits for wind turbines, solar panels, electric cars, and other “green technologies.” Those incentives were eliminated or phased out in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July of 2025.

According to Invenergy, it would “deploy additional ​capital into projects ⁠that can be delivered on a commercially reasonable timeline and meet customer demand while continuing to evaluate opportunities as market conditions evolve.” The deal is offering a way for the company to move forward with energy projects that could bring power to the grid more quickly for consumers.

Reuters reports that seven U.S. states sued the administration earlier ​this month over a nearly $800 million payment to France’s TotalEnergies to cancel an offshore wind lease off the coast of New York. The Democrat-controlled states alleged that the administration failed to follow proper administrative procedures and misused a government fund reserved for legal settlements, even though there was no litigation between the parties. The suing ⁠states include New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

The Trump administration has returned about $2.5 billion to date to encourage companies to terminate their offshore wind leases and instead invest the funds in developing energy projects that produce energy on demand. Trump administration officials indicate that similar agreements could be in the works with other companies.

Invenergy Portfolio

Invenergy has 14 operational natural gas facilities and is expanding into geothermal energy, with 45 leases totaling 144,000 acres in Nevada, Idaho, California, Utah, and New Mexico. It also has about 125 land-based wind facilities operating and under construction, more than 60 solar, and nearly 30 battery storage projects developed. It is planning to build more onshore wind, solar, and battery storage facilities.

The Trump administration canceled a $4.9 billion federal loan guarantee last year for Invenergy’s Grain Belt Express project, a new high-voltage transmission line for delivering solar and wind-generated electricity from the Midwest to the eastern United States. The project is estimated to cost $11 billion—costs that are required for the development of wind and solar plants since they need to be located at often distant sites where wind and sun resources are strong, but which are often not included when comparing them to fossil fuel projects that can be located near demand centers. The company intends to move forward with the project even without the federal loan guarantee.

The Other Lease Buy Backs

Under a deal announced in March, French company TotalEnergies is receiving nearly $1 billion, refunding its two offshore wind leases if it invests the funds in fossil fuels instead. The leases were off the coasts of North Carolina and New York.

In April, Golden State Wind and Bluepoint Wind agreed to end their leases in exchange for reimbursements totaling nearly $900 million, which they would invest in fossil fuels. California is investigating the deal that ended Golden State Wind, a floating offshore wind farm proposed off the state’s central coast. Bluepoint Wind was an offshore wind farm in the early stages of development off the coasts of New Jersey and New York. Both Golden State and Bluepoint are co-owned by Ocean Winds, a joint venture of EDP Renewables and French energy giant Engie.

Conclusion

The Trump administration has undertaken its third deal to buy back offshore wind leases sold during the Biden administration, when lucrative subsidies were available to developers. The administration will return $765 million to energy developer Invenergy, somewhat less than the cost of its four wind leases, to terminate them off the coasts of New York, California, and Maine. Invenergy will instead use the funds to develop natural gas power plants in five Midwestern states and geothermal projects in the Western United States. While the states affected by the canceled offshore wind facilities are unhappy, the deal is good for U.S. consumers because offshore wind is expensive, inefficient, and a national security risk. Avoiding the subsidy obligations of the leases, which are scheduled to phase out under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, will also save taxpayers large sums. Invenergy had already canceled one of the projects in November because of challenges with the supply chain, equipment, and vendors, as well as changing regulatory requirements. The Trump administration has returned about $2.5 billion to date to companies to terminate their offshore wind leases, and officials indicate that similar agreements could be in the works with other companies.

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With the signing of the peace deal on June 17, Saudi Arabia sent three super tankers through the waterway and seven vessels that had been stranded for more than 100 days–five from China, one from France, and another from Italy—began passing through the strait. On June 18, a liquefied natural gas carrier associated with Qatar’s state energy company returned to a home port and loaded up. About 12.5 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on the night of June 17.

A first round of peace talks between the United States and Iran concluded early on June 22 in Switzerland. Pakistan and Qatar, which are mediating the talks, released a statement saying that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a “road map” to reach a final deal within 60 days. According to a U.S. official, talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the fighting in Lebanon. According to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who headed the U.S. delegation to the talks, Iran agreed to allow international nuclear inspectors back into the country, calling it a major breakthrough.

Brent oil prices had dropped below $80 a barrel—over $40 off the war peak of $126—and average U.S. gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon. If the peace deal holds and tankers already loaded with oil pass through the Strait, Middle East oil producers will begin restarting around 11 million barrels per day of production that was shut in during the Hormuz closure, a process that could take months. Iraq said its oilfields are ready to resume production and that output will gradually return to normal, restoring previous rates.

According to Citi Bank’s base case, with a 60% probability, sustained normalization in flows will move oil markets into surplus and prices will trend lower over the next six to 12 ​months to around $60 to $65 per ⁠barrel by the first quarter of 2027.

President Trump is trying to encourage tankers to transit the Strait. Just under 500 ships, including 220 oil tankers, are parked in the Persian Gulf outside Hormuz waiting to transit. U.S. discussions have centered on ways to convince insurance companies to offer coverage to travel through the waterway. Ship owners remain wary that the peace deal may fall apart and that Iran will attack them as they attempt to transit the strait. One idea Trump administration officials have discussed with industry representatives is to offer shipowners the opportunity to pay for expedited passage through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly escorted by U.S. naval ships.

In March, the Trump administration started offering $20 billion in “political insurance” to ship owners who might attempt the Hormuz transit. The plan had few takers as owners did not want to risk physical property in waters where Iran was using missiles, drones, and small boats to inflict damage on cargoes worth millions of dollars.

If the peace holds, it is clear that it will take time for the Middle East to return to normal operations in 2026. But the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a significant oil oversupply in 2027. The agency expects supply to surge by 8 million barrels per day, while demand increases by only 2 million barrels per day in 2027. That oversupply will bring prices down and help fill up the huge stock drawdowns created during the conflict. In 2026, the IEA forecasts oil supply to fall by 3.9 million barrels per day, as production losses in the Middle East outpace rising output ​from the Americas. IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, after a 5 million barrel per day drop in April through June. That implies supply ​will be short of demand by around ⁠920,000 barrels per day in 2026, according to Reuters.

According to OPEC’s 2026 World Oil Outlook, world demand is expected to rise to 113.3 million barrels per day in 2030—a higher level than other forecasters —from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025. For the longer term, OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 124 million barrels per day by 2050, and does not expect demand to peak. According to OPEC, the oil industry needs $17.7 trillion in investment by 2050.

Conclusion

A blip in the peace deal with Israel firing on Lebanon after four of its military members were killed there postponed the peace talks that were to start on June 19 in Switzerland between the United States and Iran until June 21. The first round of talks ended early on June 22, with a roadmap to reach a final deal in 60 days. With the signing of the framework agreement that calls for safe passage over the next 60 days while negotiations take place, oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering, particularly for oil tankers, as U.S. military ships have escorted them through the strait. Brent oil prices dropped below $80 a barrel—over $40 less than the peak price during the war, and average U.S. gas prices are below $4 a gallon. If shipments pick up and hostilities are checked, increased oil production and supply should lead to lower prices, benefiting the world’s economies, although forecasters offer differing estimates of the timing and pricing of the recovery.

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Pattern Energy, the wind developer, also owns the SunZia Transmission Project—a 550-mile high-voltage direct current transmission line that goes from the SunZia Wind Project site in central New Mexico to south-central Arizona and is backed by the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.  SunZia Transmission line is rated at ±525 kilovolts and carries up to 3,000 megawatts of power — the largest voltage source converter installation in the United States, and one of the largest worldwide. By converting the wind power’s output from AC to DC at a converter station in Corona, New Mexico, and transmitting it as direct current across the corridor, the system dramatically reduces line losses. At the receiving end, a converter station inverts the power back to AC.

Of the SunZia transmission line’s 3,021 megawatt of power capacity, 2,131 megawatts will be delivered to Southern California via the Palo Verde Substation. On May 15, 2026, California’s grid operator recorded 7,122 megawatts of hourly wind generation, a figure 20% above the prior annual record, with SunZia’s turbines contributing during a pre-commercial testing phase. It is important to note that these massive transmission projects are needed to support wind and solar power, which must be sited far from demand centers since they need to be located where wind power is strong, and the sun is shining.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, once SunZia comes online, wind power will account for 45% of the state’s energy capacity, followed by 19% each from solar and natural gas. These statistics are in terms of capacity, not generation, because wind and solar can produce only a fraction of the power that gas, coal, and nuclear can at the same capacity level due to their inefficiencies. While dispatchable plants can generate power at any time, non-dispatchable sources such as wind depend on the weather and need massive amounts of land. One advanced nuclear plant, for example, produces 33.17 megawatts per acre, while one offshore wind facility produces approximately 0.006 megawatts per acre, which is approximately 5,500 times less efficient than one nuclear plant, according to the Interior Department.

That is one reason why, in July 2025, President Trump signed an executive order directing the administration to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy facilities. It is also because these renewable energy sources make the United States dependent on foreign-controlled supply chains that threaten national security. Wind and solar power require critical minerals that, in many cases, result in reliance on supply chains from China. Lithium, graphite, cobalt, and manganese are critical to the storage batteries used in wind and solar projects, and the rare-earth elements that China processes are needed for the development of wind turbines.

Before SunZia came online, New Mexico had approximately 3,997 megawatts of installed wind capacity. With SunZia, the state’s total wind capacity is about 7,647 megawatts.

The Permitting Took Almost Two Decades

According to Tech Times, Pattern Energy and its predecessors spent from 2006 to 2023 moving SunZia through federal environmental reviews, state regulatory approvals, route adjustments, and competing legal challenges before construction could begin. The project required Bureau of Land Management right-of-way approvals across federal land in two states, Arizona Corporation Commission certification for the transmission corridor, and coordination with multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Tech Times reports that in May 2025, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals reinstated a lawsuit filed by the Tohono O’odham Nation and the San Carlos Apache Tribe, which alleged that the Bureau of Land Management failed to properly consult the tribes before authorizing construction through a 50-mile segment of the San Pedro River Valley in Arizona. The district court that originally dismissed the case did so on statute-of-limitations grounds; the appeals court found those grounds incorrect and sent the case back for consideration on the merits. While construction on the entire line is now complete, the legal outcome could require post-construction mitigation, rerouting of future work, or formal remediation of culturally significant sites.

Conclusion

The U.S.’s largest onshore wind facility is about to begin commercial operation. Built in three counties in New Mexico, it will provide power to the state of Arizona and southern California. It consists of 916 turbines, has a capacity of 3,650 megawatts, and was built at a cost of $11 billion. Along with the wind facility, Pattern Energy, the wind developer, also owns the SunZia Transmission Project—a 550-mile high-voltage direct current transmission line that goes from the SunZia Wind Project site in central New Mexico to south-central Arizona. Of the SunZia transmission line’s 3,021 megawatt of power capacity, 2,131 megawatts will be delivered to Southern California via the Palo Verde Substation.

Wind power requires massive land use, is inefficient due to generating power at only a faction of the generation that an equivalent gas, coal or nuclear unit with the same capacity can generate, requires rare-earth minerals that China provides and is currently subsidized by the U.S. taxpayer that the One Big Beautiful Bill signed in July 2025 will eventually correct as wind is no longer a “new” technology and should stand on its own.

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According to Reuters, U.S. exports of oil and petroleum products rose to about 10.5 million barrels per day in May, driven by higher production and the release of strategic reserves, making the United States the top global exporter for the third month in a row. Russian exports were 7 million barrels per day in May, while Saudi Arabia’s exports were 5.9 million barrels per day. In 2025, Saudi Arabia exported about 8.1 million barrels per day, compared to 6.6 million barrels per day for the United States and 5.8 million barrels per day for Russia.

Oil production in the United States has been slowly increasing since the shale oil renaissance. Since 2000, oil and liquids production in the United States has nearly tripled to about 22 million barrels per day, while Saudi oil and liquids output has largely fluctuated between 10 million and 12 million barrels per day, depending on OPEC quotas between 2000 and 2026. Russian oil and liquids output increased from 6 million barrels per day to 10 million barrels per day between 2000 and 2010, grew by a further 2 million barrels per day during the 2010s, but has largely ​stagnated and declined to below 10 million barrels per day since 2020.

The United States has been providing the majority of supplies to meet growth in oil demand, as demand has risen from 87 million barrels per day in 2010 to 104 million barrels per day in 2025. The United States is now the principal supplier of oil to Europe and the second largest supplier of distillates. Since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, Europe has increasingly turned to the United States for fuel. Europe has purchased about 47% of U.S. oil exports so far this year, up from 37% in 2021. Asia has also turned to the United States for oil supplies, purchasing about 46% of U.S. oil exports in May, compared with around 37% last year.

The U.S. oil boom is driven by private firms that respond to price changes, in contrast to government quotas set by OPEC and its allies. When prices are high, U.S. firms expand production; when they are low, they cut production. That balancing settles into an equilibrium if no disruptions affect the system.

This reshaping of global oil trade could weaken the pricing power that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have held over oil markets for decades. That could be especially true since the United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, left the bloc in May after nearly 60 years as a member. Once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the UAE will become a major OPEC competitor, no longer subject to OPEC’s quotas.

Strategic Petroleum Reserves

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently releasing oil at a rate of nearly 9 million barrels per week. On June 5, the reserve was at 349.2 million barrels. The SPR had been severely depleted by President Biden in 2022, when he ordered a major release to lower gas prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and before the midterm elections. The Biden administration did not replenish much of the drawdown, and the physical structure has required repairs, which have hindered its refilling.

China, which holds the world’s largest oil stockpile at 1.2 billion barrels, has begun drawing on its reserves after first finding alternative suppliers, reducing refinery use, and cutting petroleum exports to preserve domestic supply. The switch to electric vehicles has also helped to lower usage and demand. Inventory draws from its reserves are expected to average about 1 million barrels a day in the coming months–about a third of the oil that China is no longer receiving since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. China began releasing its reserves in May and drew down almost 25 million barrels between May and June 7, according to Bloomberg.

Conclusion

The United States has become the world’s largest oil exporter as Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s exports have been affected by the conflict in Iran and the war in Ukraine. The conflicts have altered the global oil trade, potentially reducing OPEC+’s influence over oil prices in the future, particularly if the new trade flows become permanent. The United States became the world’s largest oil producer in 2019 due to the oil shale renaissance and the advent of hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling. It has nearly tripled its oil and liquids production since 2010, while other producers have grown more slowly. Since 2010, the United States has been providing the majority of supplies to meet growth in oil demand, which reached 104 million barrels per day in 2025.

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With a tentative framework agreement in hand and negotiations to follow for 60 days on Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment, the conflict may not yet be over, so prices could still escalate. For now, Brent crude is hovering around $80 per barrel. Some forecasters expect it to remain largely capped near $100 a barrel over the next year, as supply disruptions from the war are offset by demand destruction and gradual market rebalancing, with the range between $81 and $100 a barrel.

China

The world’s biggest oil importer is continuing to prioritize lower refinery use and fuel export limits to manage reduced oil imports from the Middle East, as it did at the onset of the Iranian conflict. State-owned refiners have cut processing rates to record lows, fuel exports have been constrained under wartime measures to preserve domestic supply, and the switch to electric vehicles in China has accelerated. According to Bloomberg, China has refrained from tapping international markets to make up for the lost barrels.

China has also filled up its oil inventories to unprecedented levels over the past year. Its commercial inventories and strategic reserves are estimated to total between 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion barrels, dwarfing the reserves of other countries. The country was able to obtain oil below market prices from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran due to sanctions on those countries. In May, China began tapping its reserves, drawing down almost 25 million barrels through June 7. Inventory draws are expected to average about 1 million barrels a day in the coming months — about a third of the oil China is no longer receiving since the conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Energy Dominance

The United States has increased its oil production and its exports since the start of the war. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. oil production in 2026 to total 13.72 million barrels per day—130,000 barrels more per day than in 2025. U.S. crude oil exports reached a record 5.6 million barrels per day in May—up from the previous record set in April of 5.2 million barrels per day–due to demand from Asian and European refiners. At least 283,000 barrels per day, or about 5% of U.S. crude oil exports in May, were from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The EIA reported that U.S. net exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached an all-time high of 5.8 million barrels per day in April, with May levels estimated to remain similar. Growing international demand for U.S. diesel and jet fuel is expected to drive higher net exports of both products in the second quarter of 2026 than in the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. refineries are operating at nearly 95% utilization and are delaying their usual spring maintenance, which typically occurs during the shift to summer fuel blends. Overall, the EIA forecasts that U.S. net exports of crude oil and petroleum products will average 4.2 million barrels per day in 2026, up 1.4 million barrels per day from 2025.

Strategic Reserve Drawdown

Member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to collectively release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves based on the IEA’s recommendation. The United States agreed to release 172 million barrels over a four-month period. Oil was last released from the SPR in 2022 by President Biden to lower oil and gasoline prices for political purposes during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, depleting the reserve of a net 240 million barrels without refilling much of it and causing structural damage to the facilities in the process. Before the conflict with Iran, President Trump was working on refilling it while it was undergoing necessary repairs and was at 415 million barrels, about 58% of its 714-million-barrel capacity, when the current release was announced.

The U.S. emergency oil reserve is now at 340.3 million barrels — down 75 million barrels, or 18%, since the war with Iran began in late February. The last time the SPR had less oil was July 1983, when the Reagan administration was filling the reserve for the first time. It must be at least 20% full to be operational. Commercial inventories are also low. Supply at the crude oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, has dropped to less than 2 million barrels above its operational floor. Oil prices could increase due to these low inventories if a final agreement is not reached.

U.S. Military Escorts Ships through the Strait

The U.S. military secretly helped 200 ships and 100 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past month, which partially explains why oil prices have remained relatively stable recently. One hundred million barrels represents about 16% of the normal oil volume in a typical month. Recent reported transits through the strait remain around 5% of pre-conflict levels.

Conclusion

Oil prices during the U.S.-Iran conflict have remained relatively muted for several reasons, including demand destruction, primarily in China, the world’s largest oil importer; increased U.S. exports to Europe and Asian refiners; and the use of commercial stocks and strategic reserves. While demand destruction and higher U.S. oil production will likely continue until normal shipping has resumed, stocks and strategic reserves have been brought down to low levels, which could escalate oil prices if shipping through the strait does not return to more normal levels.

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