Interview questions - What will they ask?

Guest Article - Interview tips for the hard of hearing

2011-05-09T18:21:00.001+01:00

Each and every job candidate faces a set of challenges at a job interview that vary from being able to deliver the right impression to demonstrating how suitable they are for the position. For a large part of the UK population, a job interview poses additional challenges. In 2005 the RNID (The Royal National Institute for Deaf People) conducted a survey that revealed more accurately than ever before the total number of hard of hearing in the UK. Close to 9 million hard of hearing is the figure quoted, which represents a significant segment of the population.

In today’s job search landscape a typical job candidate may attend two types of job interview. The first is a telephone based interview, be it with the recruitment agency (almost always) or with the employer (on occasion), and the second is the face to face job interview. Each type of interview introduces different hurdles for the hearing impaired.

Telephone Based Job Interview Tips:

1. Request a written interview - The initial interview is meant to assess only preliminary suitability of the candidate. If you suffer from severe or profound hearing loss, a telephone interview is not feasible. Employers are encouraged to accommodate candidates with any number of impairments.

2. Conduct a mock interview by phone - In cases of mild hearing loss, adjusting the volume of the handset is all that is required. Ask a friend or family member to conduct a simple exercise to establish how well you are able to hear over the phone by answering a set of questions that haven’t been disclosed to you.

3. Set the scene - Hearing loss is classified according to the level of hearing loss. The four levels are profound, severe, moderate and mild. In the case of the last two, you might be able to hear over the phone perfectly well provided there is minimal background noise. Therefore choose a time for the interview when you are situated in a quiet room or environment.

4. Pick the right device - Nowadays we all carry a mobile phone or some smart device with phone capabilities. As much as it might seem tempting to schedule the interview while you are on the move via your mobile device, poor signal reception might make hearing the interviewer harder. Therefore, consider using a normal BT line.

5. Use a telephone amplifier - Modern technology offer gadgets such as a telephone amplifier that can affix to your existing telephone and amplify the sound of the speaker. At around £10 to £20 these are useful gadgets for anyone who suffers from hearing loss.

6. Use an amplified phone - There are certain phone manufacturers such as Geemarc and Amplicom who produce dedicated telephones for the hard of hearing. Available in a cordless or corded configuration, they include an extra loud speaker, extra loud ringer and other visual clues such as flashing lights.

Face To Face Based Job Interview Tips:

7. Increase your confidence levels - You might have concerns before the interview that may lead to question your abilities to shine during the interview. A useful tip is to prepare as much as you can so your confidence levels are high when entering the interview. Learn about the employer, study the job description in detail, write down a set of possible questions you have for the recruiter and prepare answers to common questions.

8. Position yourself accordingly – those that are Hard of hearing will often use lip reading to aid in overcoming their hearing loss. When you are asked to sit down by the interviewer, choose the seat right in front of the interviewer.

9. Wear a hearing aid - Out of the UK’s 9 million hard of hearing, the RNID estimates that 1.4 million wear hearing aids on a daily basis. These are a group of devices which differ in how they fit the wearer’s ear, but perform the same role. They are able to amplify external sound thereby supporting the part of the hearing process that is diminished.

10. Hearing loss is a common condition and you should disclose your condition to the interviewer to avoid unexpected concerns and misconceptions.

Good luck!

- - -
Article by Hearing Direct, an online based vendor of hearing aids for the deaf and hard of hearing including accessories such as hearing aid batteries.

The numbers behind the headlines - employment, unemployment and what it all means.

2010-10-28T20:10:00.000+01:00

There are a number of misleading statistics currently being bandied around at the moment regarding the state of the jobs market in the United Kingdom. Some commentators who are trying to be positive point to the massive jobs growth that has occurred since the start of the year, whilst the more bearish tend to point to the fact that total unemployment has continued to increase in 2010 and that the majority of the new jobs that have been created are either temporary or part-time.

So what is the real story? Well let’s look at the raw numbers.

It certainly is true that there have been a large number of jobs created this year. Total employment has increased by almost 350,000 since the start of the year, and there are now almost 2.8 million people working in the country.

These jobs have been predominantly part-time and temporary. Of the net new jobs created, 250,000 were part time jobs and 120,000 were temporary jobs. Full time jobs have actually fallen by 40,000 since the start of the year. However, is this surprising? Coming out of a very deep recession it is not surprising that employers are being cautious in their approach to headcounts. Employing new staff on a part time or temporary basis is likely to be the first steps to taking them on permanently.

Total unemployment has increased in the year, but only marginally at 5,000 jobs. With a growing labour market, renewed government efforts to take people off long term benefits and continued economic uncertainties this growth in unemployment is relatively small. Indeed, the total increase in unemployment has been surprisingly low during the downturn. Total unemployment peaked at around 2.5 million, having increased by around 900,000, much lower than the 3.0 million estimate that was forecast during the downturn.

However, what of the outlook for unemployment? For one, because unemployment increased less than forecast during the downturn, there are concerns that businesses have been hoarding labour, preferring to cut wages and hours instead. Wage and hours cuts are certainly evident in the statistics. With the economy starting to grow again, it is highly possible that businesses will work their current staff harder rather than looking to employ more people.

The impact of the public sector job cuts is a big unknown. Government estimates suggest that 500,000 jobs will be lost in the public sector over the next five years, but what is the indirect impact on the private sector? This is very hard to estimate but the cuts will almost certainly lead to many more job losses in private companies. But this will be spread throughout the next five years. The private sector will be creating jobs over this period and it seems possible that at least an additional 100,000 jobs per annum can be created as the recovery gains momentum.

The immediate outlook for the labour market is one of potential weakness, as businesses and the public sector react to the deficit reduction plans with headcount freezes and job cuts. Nevertheless, the fiscal plan has provided companies with the clarity they need to adjust to these changed economic circumstances, whilst continued support from low interest rates and the weakness of the pound will provide a firm footing for businesses to recover and then expand.

In conclusion, the labour market was surprisingly strong during the downturn, has started to create jobs (although not permanent jobs), will be weakened in the short term following the announcement of Government deficit cuts, but will likely to be seeing employment growth and a sustainable fall in unemployment by the second half of next year.

Some tough times to come, but be prepared for that light at the end of the tunnel…it is coming!

Vodafone cuts 400 jobs at call centre in Banbury

2010-10-05T22:07:00.003+01:00

Vodafone have announced that they are planning on cutting 400 jobs from their customer relations call centre in Banbury. Half of the jobs will be relocated to other parts of the country but half will be lost.

It seems likely that large employers will continue to announce job cuts throughout this year and next. Although total unemployment may not rise as much as some are expecting, the jobs market will remain tough and many will be worried about the possibility of unemployment.

Unemployment - where is it going?

2010-09-15T17:52:00.000+01:00

The total number of people registered as unemployed fell by 8,000 in the three months to June according to the latest ONS statistics, resulting in an unemployment rate of 7.8%.

However, the ONS also showed the claimant count - those out of work and receiving unemployment benefit - was up 2,300 in August to 1.47 million. This tends to be a good lead indicator of where the broader unemploymen measure will move in the future.

The number of people employed increased by 286,000 in the three months to July, however much of this increase was from part-time employment, including a large amount of seasonal employment.

Of course, we shouldn't read too much into one month's data, especially given how often it is revised.

Nonetheless, with the economy showing signs of slowing and with the uncertainty of public sector spending cuts ahead, it seems highly likely that the labour market will be weak throughout the rest of the year and into 2011.

I don't subscribe to the double-dip scenario, as economies don't generally move out of recession this way and the Bank of England has shown itself very willing to support the recovery. I also think that some of the estimates of job losses in the public sector and economic damage from cuts are overstated. Nevertheless, jobs will be lost in the public sector and in those private sector companies directly affected.

The private sector is likely to be creating jobs at the same time but with wages flat and jobs being lost in the public sector, the jobs market isn't likely to feel like it is roaring back into life.

UK growth revised up in Q2 - highest level in over ten years

2010-08-27T13:58:00.003+01:00

UK Q2 2010 economic growth was revised up at the second reading to 1.2%. This is the highest quarterly growth rate since Q3 1999. Nevertheless, economists are expecting the recovery to fade in the second half of the year as US economic growth falters and as businesses and consumers face the prospect of fiscal austerity measures.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-27/u-k-expands-faster-than-estimated-on-growth-in-construction-inventories.html

Hard Interview Questions

2010-05-16T23:02:00.003+01:00

I found this list of hard interview questions and suggested answers using StumbleUpon...it may be worth a look.

It is a list of what the author describes as "The 25 most difficult questions you'll be asked on a job interview." Personally I don't think these are the hardest interview questions ever...here are a few of our own tough interview questions.

Then again...I think it might be from 1983 so perhaps it is a little dated. Nevertheless here is the link.

http://www.datsi.fi.upm.es/~frosal/docs/25mdq.html

Enjoy

Tough first day for Prime Minister Cameron as unemployment continues to rise

2010-05-12T22:08:00.002+01:00

According to the latest figures released by the Office of National Statistics the rate of unemployment reached 8.0% in the three months to March whilst the rate of employment fell to 72.0% in the same period.

In contrast the number of people claiming unemployment benefit actually fell in the April, representing the fifth fall in six months. The claimant count fell by 27,100 to 1.52 million. This shows that people are unable or choosing not to claim benefits.

In addition the inactivity rate continued to rise, driven in part by people staying in education.

The employment rate for the three months to March 2010 was 72.0 per cent. The rate was down 0.3 per cent on the quarter and it has not been lower since the three months to September 1996. The number of people in employment fell by 76,000 on the quarter to reach 28.83 million. The number of full-time workers fell by 103,000 over the quarter but the number of part-time workers increased by 27,000. The number of employees and self-employed people working part-time because they could not find a full-time job increased by 25,000 on the quarter to reach 1.07 million, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.

The unemployment rate for the three months to March 2010 was 8.0 per cent, up 0.2 per cent on the quarter. The number of unemployed people increased by 53,000 over the quarter to reach 2.51 million, the highest figure since the three months to December 1994. The number of people unemployed for up to six months fell by 52,000, to reach 1.21 million. However, the number of people unemployed for more than twelve months increased by 94,000 over the quarter to reach 757,000, the highest figure since the three months to May 1997.

The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the claimant count) decreased by 27,100 between March and April 2010 to reach 1.52 million. The claimant count has fallen for five out of the last six months. The number of claimants of up to six months duration fell by 29,200 on the month to reach 923,800 while the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance for over twelve months increased by 10,700 between March and April to reach 253,000.

The inactivity rate for the three months to March 2010 was 21.5 per cent, up 0.2 per cent on the quarter. The number of inactive people of working age increased by 88,000 over the quarter to reach a record high of 8.17 million. Almost half of this quarterly increase in inactivity was due to the number of students not in the labour market which increased by 43,000 on the quarter to reach 2.30 million.

The number of vacancies for the three months to April 2010 was 475,000, down 6,000 over the quarter.

The earnings annual growth rate for total pay (including bonuses) was 4.0 per cent for the three months to March 2010. This is the highest growth rate since June 2008 and is up from 2.5 per cent for the three months to February 2010. This increase in the growth rate for total pay reflects higher bonuses across most sectors of the economy compared with last year. The earnings annual growth rate for regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 1.9 per cent for the three months to March 2010, up from 1.7 per cent for the three months to February 2010.

For further details follow this link to the monthly bulletin.

The statistics also showed that the public sector continued to take on people over the past twelve months. This is unlikely to continue following the General Election outcome.

RBS to cut 2,600 more jobs

2010-05-11T19:13:00.000+01:00

The government controlled Royal Bank of Scotland is planning on cutting a further 2,600 jobs.

Political uncertainty will damage the labour market

2010-05-09T20:05:00.000+01:00

The problems in Greece and the continued political uncertainty will only add to the likelihood that the labour market will remain weak for some time yet.

It is clear that public sector jobs will be lost as the deficit is cut but these uncertainties in the UK and abroad will likely result in employers holding back taking on new staff until they get some clarity.

Election debate and the level of cuts that will have to be made!

2010-05-03T21:59:00.001+01:00

The final election debate was supposed to focus upon the economy, but frankly the lack of detail from all three candidates was astonishing. We learnt very little new about their policies and I'm not sure anyone really believes that cuts won't be larger than we are being told, whoever gets into government.

This was a great opportunity to debate the merits of a Brown type Keynesian policy of continuing government spending verses the Conservative classical economics position of cutting the deficit, shrinking government and balancing the books. Both positions have merit and should have been examined. They were hinted at but no great detail was given.

It is easy to understand why politicians avoid announcing these tough and technical positions to the public. George Osbourne went down the path of announcing austerity and the polls moved sharply against him. It seems perhaps we are happier to be misled than to hear the truth.

Make no mistake, whoever gets elected next Thursday, spending will be cut sharply and taxes will rise. Even with the economy coming out of recession, things may to many feel a lot worse.

This blog has moved

2010-04-27T23:45:00.001+01:00

This blog is now located at http://whatwilltheyask.blogspot.com/.
You will be automatically redirected in 30 seconds or you may click here.

For feed subscribers, please update your feed subscriptions to
http://whatwilltheyask.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default.

Misleading UK unemployment statistics

2010-03-18T17:08:00.000Z

The unemployment figures released yesterday provided mixed headlines this morning. Some of the press focused upon the fall in unemployment and 30,000 fewer people claiming unemployment benefit. These are good figures that provide some signs that the recession and the downturn are fading. However as always the devil is in the detail.

What the headlines don't tend to indicate is that although unemployment fell, so did the number of people in employment. Therefore the number of people working, earning and producing goods and services in the economy actually declined.

The two paragraphs above may seem inconsistent. They are not. The main reason that both unemployment and employment fell is that the total number of people in the labour market has been falling as the inactivity rate increased by 150,000 in the quarter and the number of overseas workers decline 100,000 in the year. The rise in the inacitivy rate was driven by a 100,000 increase in the number of people registered as students. Although this is preferable to redundancy, the majority of these students are not attending university or enrolling in rigorous higher education courses, many of these courses have been set up in the past year in the face of recession and are well known to provide little in the way of actual benefit to either the individual or wider society. A cynical person might even argue that these courses are a very useful political tool to keep down the official unemployment figures.

Finally the labour market stats also continue to show that it is the public sector that is creating the additional jobs, not the private sector. Given the necessity for the government to cut its deficit, this is a temporary solution, and likely to be reversed. Without a return of private sector jobs growth there will be no recovery in the labour market.

Its not all doom and gloom out there anymore and things are slowly getting better, but as ever it is easy to get carried away when misinterpreting monthly data!

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

UK Q4 2009 GDP revised up

2010-02-28T17:12:00.001Z

As expected the GDP was revised up to 0.3% in the final quarter of 2009 and could possibly be revised up further at the final reading. The second reading is based upon 60% of the data needed to make a complete reading, compared to 40% for the first reading and 80% at the final reading.

For further information see: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192

It is interesting to note that 0.3% is within the forecast estimates given by economists before the first reading came out. When the preliminary reading was 0.1% (outside of the forecast range) commentators in the press were quick to belittle the economics profession and the forecasts, questioning their competency. I think it is probably time that economists questioned the competency of the press, who fail time and time again to understand statistics and their limitations.

Worse business investment puts Q4 GDP revision in doubt...

2010-02-25T22:10:00.001Z

Tomorrow's second reading of the Q4 GDP figure has been widely expected to show that the UK emerged from recession at a quicker pace than the 0.1% originally shown in the preliminary reading.

Although analysts weren't expected a dramatic change in the number, a reading of around 0.2% or 0.3% would have given them more comfort for the outlook of the recovery.

However, the likelihood of tomorrow's second reading showing an upwards revision was put in doubt today by news from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showing business investment falling sharply in the final quarter of the year. According to the Preliminary reading of business investment in Q4 2009, investment fell 5.8%, compared to a fall of 1.8% in Q3 2009.

Again a health warning must be placed on these figures as they are only preliminary readings and therefore are highly likely to be changed.

For more information: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/bi0210.pdf

There remains a good possibility that GDP will be revised up tomorrow. Nevertheless these figures suggest that business was not yet confident enough to spend money in the final months of 2009 and were hoarding their cash in anticipation of things continuing to be bumpy in 2010.

Retailer performance, don’t be fooled by the statistics

2010-02-03T21:44:00.000Z

Statistics are a funny thing as they can misinform just as much as they inform. As David Brent in The Office said “Statistics are like a lamp-post to a drunken man - more for leaning on than illumination.”

Although as an economist I think this is a bit of an exaggeration but it is certainly true that statistics are not always as they seem. Nowhere is this truer than the economic statistics produced by the Office of National Statistics. I am not diminishing the efforts of the ONS, who in my opinion do a fantastic job and are far better than most other national statistical bodies in this world.

It is the interpretation of their statistics that leaves much to be desired. Commentators are all too willing to take monthly figures released by the ONS and other bodies and use them as direct evidence to support one theory, one forecast or one inclination. In fact monthly data is almost always revised in the following months as new evidence emerges. The monthly data is also highly sensitive to various events that occurred that month which are completely unrelated to the wider economic picture. Looking at longer term trends is a much more satisfactory way of interpreting data, even though they possibly lack the spontaneity that a new release provides.

Therefore I am going to comment upon the retail market in December, whilst attempting to avoid the trap of drawing a conclusion from just one month’s evidence.

I am writing this article before the official December retail sales figures have been released, which will be published next week. However given survey evidence and retailer announcements it is clear that the December figures are very likely to show sales increasing sharply compared to December 2008.

So clearly everything is getting better for retailers, right? People are flocking back to the shops and spending their money, right? A great Christmas on the high street is a sign of a great year ahead, right? Possibly, but probably not. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, don’t be misled by one month’s data.

It must be remembered that the sales data for December 2009 will be compared against the distinctly different retail environment of December 2008. This time last year it seemed for many that the world financial system was in free fall with unknown and possibly cataclysmic consequences. Christmas 2008 came very shortly after the collapse of both business and consumer confidence.

December 2008 followed months of sharp falls in retail sales, forcing the government to cut VAT to help stimulate demand. December 2009 came just before a VAT increase. The 2008 cut did not have as big an immediate impact because it provided a year’s window of lower prices, whereas in December 2009 people were rushing to take advantage before that window closed. Therefore when we see retail sales figures showing a large annual increase in month on month retail sales, this is overstating the strength of Christmas 2009.

This is not to be too downbeat. The signs are that December 2009 in itself was better than expected. Some of the retail sales figures released by major stores have seen higher growth than can be attributed just to a relative weakness in the previous year. It is indeed possible that some consumers have decided to spend some of the savings they have built up in the previous six months or took advantage of lower mortgage repayment costs, due to the cuts in interest rates by the Bank of England, to go out and enjoy Christmas.

One should however avoid euphoria. A large rise in sales is excellent but it must be seen in context of sharp falls of a similar magnitude in the previous year, as well as the possibility that temporary factors boosted sales this Christmas, whilst continued weakness of employment and wage growth could depress sales further through 2010.

Inflation

2010-01-20T23:47:00.001Z

Up to 2.9%. No worry about interest rates just yet.

The Long Road to Normality – Retailing in 2010

2009-12-28T18:49:00.001Z

Having been through the most traumatic of years it is easy to believe that the worst is over and that 2010 will be uneventful and perhaps even boring. Nothing could be further from the truth. The outlook for 2010 is one of highs and lows, success and failures. Nowhere will this be more obvious than on the high street.

These are the possible highlights of the retail environment in 2010.

December 2009

Despite retail sales falling back in November, sales pick up in December on signs of the recession ending and increased big ticket items purchases before the January VAT hike. Compared to very weak sales turnover data in December 2008, the annual figures show a sharp improvement, masking continued weaknesses within the retail sector.

January 2010

Signs of retailer problems are starting to emerge. Some retail businesses have not benefited from a pick up in sales and are forced to move into administration.

February 2010

Gloom returns to retail as administrations continue and the impact of VAT hikes weigh upon consumer confidence and their willingness to spend. Global equity markets have started to flatten as investment markets question the strength of the recovery. Optimism is fading and retail sales are starting to suffer.

March 2010

Consumers face the distraction of a close and bitterly fought general election. Messages of both hope and austerity confuse retail expectations. The Conservative Party is elected with a small majority, ensuring a workable political environment.

April 2010

An initial boost of optimism following the changing of government gives a temporary lift to retailing.

May 2010

The Conservative Party’s “Emergency” budget and planned tax hikes start to have an impact, taking the shine off the new government. An announcement of substantial cuts to public sector spending and pay freezes increases the prospect of industrial actions. Public sector employees, who have been so far largely isolated from the downturn, start to feel the impact of the recession.

June 2010

The World Cup provides a temporary distraction, as sales of football merchandise; memorabilia and high definition televisions all support higher retail sales.

July 2010

There is mixed economic news. The global economic recovery is regaining pace after a second quarter lull. However, signs of future interest rate hikes in the UK, USA and Euro zone, raise concerns for mortgage holders.

August 2010

A long hot summer increases social tensions. The threat of public sector strikes starts to increase. The disruption is short lived as public sympathy is not forthcoming.

September 2010

Investors return from their summer holidays with a renewed sense of optimism. The private sector is growing in confidence as the recovery starts to build up steam. Unemployment is beginning to fall as private sector job creation compensates for public sector job losses.

October 2010

Rising consumer confidence and lower unemployment is slow to translate into higher retail sales. Cautious spending habits expected to remain for some time. Shops in South Wales benefit from the Ryder Cup, whilst retailers enjoy a weekend Halloween.

November 2010

The first base rate rise by the Bank of England is unwelcome news for home owners, but also provides a positive signs that the economy continues to take tentative steps back to normality.

December 2010

Solid Christmas sales figures but without a significant increase on December 2009. It has been a long year with many ups and downs but most retailers are happy in the knowledge that the worst is over, the economy is growing, unemployment is falling and things are very gradually moving towards normality.

Carl Malways (economist) – writing for The Retail Database

The Retail Database lists the details of all major shopping destinations in the United Kingdom, providing a reference point for everyone interest in retail, from those looking for a place to shop to retailers researching possible store locations.

Manufacturing output and industry jobs

2009-08-04T20:18:00.002+01:00

The CIPS Purchase Managers Index (PMI) was released today, recording a figure of 50.8 in July, up from 47.4 in the previous month. With the PMI index rising above 50 the manufacturing sector is now showing signs that it is starting to grow again, although at a very modest pace.

The manufacturing sector joins the services sector in returning to growth, which recorded results above 50 in both May and June and is forecast to expand again in July.

This should be seen as a positive sign that the economy is now past the worst of the economic downturn and is slowly returning to growth. However, at just above the 50 mark the data is not showing a rapid rebound in activity but a very modest increase in activity. Given that the economy has so far shrunk nearly 6% since the end of the first quarter in 2008, it will take either much stronger growth than this or a very long time indeed to return the economy to where it was in early 2008.

Recent data has also revealed that employment expectations in the manufacturing sector are starting to improve. This is not to say that employment in the sector is expected to grow in coming months, but the rate at which it is falling is set to slow.

Manufacturing in the UK has lost around 150,000 jobs since the start of this economic downturn, but it should be remembered that the sector is in a process of long-term decline. The sector lost jobs throughout the boom years of this decade and since 1980 has seen total employment fall by over 40%.

On the whole, today’s result should be seen as a positive but tentative sign that the economy is starting to improve. The economic environment remains fragile and a smooth transition to normal conditions is unlikely. Nevertheless, should this trend continue, the economic outlook could be better than many economists have been forecasting.

UK Q2 GDP results fall short of expectations

2009-07-24T15:16:00.001+01:00

Preliminary GDP data for the UK came in well below analyst expectations today, falling by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2009. Analysts had expected a fall smaller decline of just 0.3%.

It should be remembered that these preliminary estimates do have a habit of being substantially revised before they are finalised, however the magnitude of this fall should be enough to temper some of the more extreme claims that the recession ended some time back in May.

Don't get me wrong, there are signs that the recession is starting to moderate. The 0.8% GDP decline is nothing compared to the 2.4% seen in the first quarter of the year and recent indicators have pointed to continued improvement. However, pulling out of this recession is going to be a long process, and unfortunately a rather painful one. For one unemployment is up by more than 700,000 since the start of 2008 and will continue to rise, even when the economy starts to grow again.

These GDP figures are also lower than the last budget predicted and will mean that the government is highly unlikely to meet its fiscal forecasts. As a result taxes are highly likely to rise and the public sector is likely to experience cuts in funding. This will inevitably mean that jobs will be lost in the public sector, further forcing up employment and destroying one of the last bastions of secure employment.

A probable turn in the inventory cycle as manufacturing businesses, having run down their stocks, restart production and recent economic indicators suggest that the UK economy may return to positive economic growth as early as the third or fourth quarter of 2009. This is indeed possible. However, the road to recovery will not be smooth. The unwinding of fiscal imbalances, a return to a normal interest rate environment and the withdrawal of quantitative easing will be difficult, threatening recovery.

Whatever shape you think the recovery will take one thing is for sure, it will not be easy!

Jobs and unemployment in 2009

2009-02-09T22:20:00.003Z

According to the CIPD/KPMG survey of employers' the jobs market in the UK is getting rapidly worse. This should not come as too much of a surprise.

It should be remembered though that this survey is now a bit historic and was undertaken in a period of particularly bad economic and financial market news. I would suggest that this news is slightly redundant (excuse the pun) and we should look to more recent indicators as a better reflection of what is going on.

The survey asks respondents their plans for recruitment and redundancies in the first quarter of 2009. It seems strange to me then that they would release this information on 9 February when we are already half way through the quarter.

"The latest quarterly CIPD/KPMG survey of employers’ recruitment and redundancy plans indicates that UK job prospects are deteriorating ‘at an alarming rate’ while the size of average pay rises is shrinking.

The winter Labour Market Outlook (LMO) survey of 892 UK employers, conducted by Ipsos Mori at the turn of the year, finds that more than one in three (36%) plan to cut jobs in the first quarter of 2009 – double the proportion expecting to make job cuts at the time of the previous LMO survey last autumn.

The LMO records a negative balance of -9 percentage points between the proportion of employers planning to cut jobs (36%) and the proportion planning to hire additional staff (27%). This is the first such negative balance recorded in the five years since the LMO survey began in 2004.

The latest LMO survey also finds that employers intend to keep a much tighter rein on pay increases in the coming months. Those who plan pay reviews expect staff pay to increase on average by 2.6%, much lower than the 3.5% average increase expected last autumn. But as many as one in eight employers don’t intend to conduct a pay review at all in 2009."

Source: www.cipd.co.uk

Glimmers of hope as global recession deepens

2009-02-07T13:29:00.001Z

Unemployment continues to grow across the globe, with no countries remains unaffected by the global recession. In the Unites States the unemployment rate reached 7.2 per cent in December, its highest level since 1992. This followed a loss of almost 600,000 jobs in the month, the largest drop in over thirty years. Unemployment will continue to rise in most countries for the majority of 2009.

Nevertheless for the first time in quite a few months the latest economic data has started to show some glimmers of hope. This is not to say that there has been a dramatic improvement in the global economy, but there are perhaps some signs that the rate of economic contraction is decelerating. Although this means that the economy is still shrinking it could be the first steps towards reaching a trough.

Earlier this week the Purchase Manager Indices (PMI) figures for manufacturing and services showed an improved economic environment in both the UK and Europe. It showed that manufactures were benefiting from lower input prices, whilst those in the UK were starting to be helped by the rapid weakening of the pound. Services in the UK and Europe were also buoyed as lower interest rates and government intervention increased the outlook for the sector.

Later in the week the US ISM survey of non-manufacturing businesses improved for the second month in a row. It indicated that business conditions were improving, despite new orders continuing to fall. The US PMI manufacturing survey also increased in the month. Again both indices were improved but implied further economic contraction.

It should be remembered that these figures are indicating changes in the month, and therefore it is dangerous to read too much into them. It should also be noted that the employment parts of these surveys continue to deteriorate, representing an acceleration of unemployment.

Nevertheless the stage is being set for what will be a long crawl back to positive economic growth. Inflation continues to fall in Europe and the US, giving policy makers the room to cut interest rates further or to use monetary stimuli such as quantitative easing. Falling inflation will also help to boost real incomes, whilst reducing the attractiveness of savings, providing a much needed boost to consumer spending.

On top of this, lower interest rates and rising unemployment will provide benefits to business. Although, banks remain unwilling or unable to increase lending to businesses, there are early signs that the bond market is starting to re-open (although at a high price), whilst some bank facilities have become significantly less expensive. In addition, being able to cut jobs has enabled some companies to reduce costs, increase productivity and adapt to the changing business environment.

A return to normal economic conditions remain a long way away, even positive quarterly economic growth is unlikely in a number of countries until 2010. However, should the latest economic indices continue to improve then perhaps we are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. The tunnel is likely to be quite long, but now could be the best time to start preparing for the upturn.

When will the global recession end?

2009-01-24T13:44:00.007Z

It came as no surprise yesterday that the UK is now officially in a recession. With the economy shrinking in the third quarter of the year, the economy certainly hadn't improved in the final three months of the year. The economy contracted by 1.5% in the final quarter of the year, having shrank 0.6% in the third quarter.

These figures confirmed that despite the government's attempts to stimulate the economy through measures such as a cut to VAT and capital injections into the banks, and the Bank of England's historic interest rate cuts, the economy shrank at an accelerated pace.

Like the USA, Japan and the eurozone, which were confirmed as in recession at the end of the third quarter, the UK is now officially in recession, and is unlikely to emerge from recession for some time.

Historically recessions tend to last about fifteen months, but given the global nature of this recession and the severity of the economic imbalances in the UK this recession could last longer. It will almost certainly be longer before the UK returns to its natural rate of economic growth (approximately 2.5% per annum).

Given that the USA is further through its recessionary cycle than other economies, it is likely that they will emerge from their recession before other parts of the world. The country also has the capacity to spend its way out of this recession. Given the massive fiscal stimulus planned by the new Obama administration, this could pull the US out of recession by the middle of 2009.

Increased optimism following the election of President Obama should also help to stimulate the economy as consumers feel positive enough to spend and businesses prepare for an upturn. This break from the old could have a significant impact on the economy.

The eurozone and Japan are likely to follow the United States. Once the US starts to grow again global demand and global confidence is likely to improve. Japan and eurozone countries like Germany rely heavily upon exports and therefore global demand is fundamental in their economic revival.

These countries also benefit from having less consumer debt and fewer economic imbalances (e.g. house price over valuation) than countries such as the UK and USA. Therefore the downwards economic cycle should have less corrections to make before stability returns. Less personal debt and higher savings will mean that consumers in places such as France and Germany will be able to benefit from falling prices, prompting an increase in consumption that will aid the recovery.

The UK is likely to be one of the last developed countries to come out of the global downturn. It faces a number of problems that will prolong the correction in the economy. For one the UK economy relies heavily upon global finance as a proportion of GDP and as an employer. Therefore with this sector in chaos the economy has been hit hard.

Secondly UK households do not have a massive amount of savings to protect themselves through the economic slowdown. Having spent heavily and saved little in previous years the UK consumer is likely to sharply cut consumption in order to build up protective savings. This will reduce retail spending, a key part of the economy.

Third, with the UK government attempting to support the banking sector it has built up a massive debt. Like the UK consumer the British government did not save in the good years and therefore does not have a surplus available to add much extra stimulus to the economy.

Finally, UK house prices were some of the most over valued in the developed world and as a result will need to fall further than in other countries. This will again weigh on consumer confidence and will also hit bank balance sheets.

This is not to say that the UK will be in permanent decline. The rapid weakening of the pound will stimulate exports from the UK. This will take some time to occur as the world economy slows and as international importers adjust their supply chain to the UK.

The UK also benefits from a highly skilled and flexible labour market. Unlike some European countries the UK's labour laws encourage the use of temporary workers and place less barriers to employment. They also allow employees to be sacked or made redundant more easily. Although not a great thing if you are one of the people losing their job, but it will mean that British businesses can reorganise and cut costs more quickly and cheaply than other countries.

Finally the Bank of England has cut interest rates quickly and will continue to cut to near zero. Along with quantitative easing ("printing money") this will act as a further stimulus.

In all these countries, particularly the USA and the UK, the way out of recession will require the banking system to move back to some sense of normality. This is not going to be easy and could be some way off. Without it though, businesses will continue to be unable to borrow and therefore invest and consumers will be unable to get mortgages or loans to buy houses, consumer or start entrepreneurial activities.

So as it stands here are my forecasts for when recession will end (i.e. first quarter of positive growth):

USA - Q3 2009

eurozone - Q4 2009

Japan - Q4 2009

UK - Q1 2010

Jobs news summary for the week

2009-01-11T19:54:00.004Z

UK governments plan to create more internships - The UK government is planning on giving unemployed graduates three month paid internships as a way of increasing skills, work experience and reducing unemployment.

Banks keen to employ graduates - Banks are keen to continue to employ the best young graduates whilst continuing to cut the jobs of more experienced staff. Graduates are proving attractive to banks as a cheap source of labour that will be available and ready for when the markets recover.

Help for long term jobless - The UK government announces plans to tackle long-term jobless, i.e. those unemployed for over six months. Unlikely to be a significant change in policy as tackling long-term unemployment has been a stated goal of the government since 1997.

Obama jobs stimulus plan - It is estimated that Obama's fiscal stimulus could create four million new jobs. It is hard to see how this figure has been calculated and will almost certainly be way off.

US unemployment increases to 7.2%, half million jobs lost in December - US unemployment surged to a 16-year high of 7.2 percent as a deepening recession pushed employers to shed a massive 524,000 jobs in December, capping a yearly loss of 2.6 million, data showed Friday.

Employee demand falling at a record pace

2009-01-07T22:34:00.008Z

A report published today by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG showed a sizable weakening in the labour market and the demand for employees.

According to the press release that accompanied the report...

...For the third consecutive month, recruitment consultants reported declines in permanent and temporary staff pay during December. Anecdotal evidence suggested that rapidly rising levels of staff availability had diluted candidates’ bargaining power.

Reflective of recent redundancies and fewer job opportunities, the availability of staff to fill vacancies continued to rise substantially in December. The latest improvements in permanent and temporary staff availability were the strongest since the inception of the survey in October 1997.

Kevin Green, Chief Executive of the REC, said:“These figures are deeply worrying and show that the contraction in the labour market is now rapidly accelerating. The decline in both permanent and temporary appointments in December is the sharpest recorded since the survey began in 1997.

“At a time when the Government is proposing job creation measures, the REC will be seeking urgent meetings with the Government about its proposed removal of the VAT concession in April. This change could help retain 150,000 temporary jobs at a time when we should all be working together to create employment opportunities, not taxing them out of existence."

Mike Stevens, Partner and Head of Business Services at KPMG, added: “These latest figures only serve to confirm the most pessimistic projections for the UK jobs market. They are also a lead indicator for a rapidly declining employment situation which is not yet reflected in the government's current employment statistics. One reason for this is that employment legislation – enacted since the last recession – tends to defer the incidence of job losses pending completion of consultation periods."

More job losses on UK high street...

2009-01-07T22:09:00.004Z

It’s not just those small companies or those that were already on the way down that are suffering at the moment. M&S announced today that they will be shedding 1,230 jobs in the UK and closing 27 of its small food stores.

It is not too surprising that M&S has been forced to make these cuts. The signs seemed pretty obvious well before today, as they announced 20% sale after 20% sale in the weeks running up to Christmas. Although the shops were packed on those sale days, it was a terrible indication of the state of the business.

This has not been a good week for those working in the retail industry...and its only Wednesday. On Monday Adams, which fell into administration after Christmas, cut another 850 staff, while Passion for Perfume collapsed leaving 185 people jobless. Whilst just today the womenswear company Viyella called in the administrators, putting at risk another 450 jobs.

Things are only going to get worse on the high street in the next few weeks and months. It seems now seems even more important than ever that the government stops playing politics with policies such as VAT cuts, and focuses upon the problems in hand. First step for retailers, get the credit insurance market working asap.