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Next Update Sunday

2012-05-22T13:30:00.001-07:00

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2012-05-20T14:04:00.000-07:00

(Telegraph) Germany's largest industrial union secures biggest pay rise for members in two decades in what is seen as a major breakthrough in dealing with the euro zone’s chronic imbalances.
At least 20,000 demonstrators marched through Frankfurt on Saturday in a peaceful protest against austerity measures.
Obama pressed Europe to shift toward a more pro-growth policy and away from austerity to tackle a crisis that threatens to push Greece out of the euro zone and send economic shockwaves worldwide.

Half of world platinum producers are facing losses at the current price.

Brazil’s wealthy are set to double in the next 11 years.

China, the world's second-largest economy, which produces more carbon dioxide emissions than any other country, plans to start seven pilot trading schemes.

(FT) Concerns over the past few weeks about limited rainfall in southern Russia push US benchmark prices for the grain to an eight-month high.
WXRISK.COM ‏SUMMER FORECAST UPDATE- new CFS plots show El Nino develops LATE- SEPT /OCT so current pattern /trends may last into ALL of JULY- early AUG.
WXRISK.COM ‏SUMMER FORECAST#2 -- NEW CFS model plots for JUNE & JULY look MUCH Hotter & MUCH drier for Plains/ Midwest. Huge change from late APRIL

Next Update Sunday

2012-05-15T17:09:00.001-07:00

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2012-05-12T16:32:00.000-07:00

Intel approved a 7% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to 22.5 cents per share, 90 cents per share on an annual basis.

Walt Disney (DIS) quarterly earnings beat Wall Street expectations as profit rose 21%.

Poland raised rates to 4.75%

Brazil’s CPI rose 5.1% YoY

Modern Banker JPMorgan, celebrated for its “controls”, said it lost $2 Billion “in six weeks” because of poor controls – quite the feat - more to disclose? Mr. Dimon recently responded to a question about too big to fail as “infantile” and “nonfactual.” (If only Glass-Steagall were still around!)
The U.S. has made "considerable progress" in restoring its banking system since the financial crisis, said Bernanke. (If only Glass-Steagall were still around!)
S&P cuts outlook on J.P. Morgan Chase to negative, citing risk management (If only Glass-Steagall were still around!)

China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% YoY in April
China’s consumer confidence stood at 86.65 in April, down 0.12% points from March.
China will lower the bank reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% starting May 18. The cut, the second of its kind this year, this will drop the RRR for the country's large financial institutions to 20% and the medium- and small-sized financial institutions to 16.5%.

Gasoline stocks fell2.6 million barrels.
Distillate stocks decreased 3.3 million barrels
Ethanol stocks fell to 21.4 million barrels, down from 22.2 million the previous week

USDA estimates soybean stocks to use at 4.4%. This is equivalent to two weeks' worth of use, and the lowest stocks-to-use figure since 1965-66.

Home Inns (HMIN) revenues rose 66.0% YoY

FDA advisers recommended approval of Arena’s (ARNA) lorcaserin -- could be first new weight loss drug in a decade.

Spain's annual inflation rose to 2% in April, up from 1.8% in the previous month
At least 100,000 Spaniards angered by grim economic prospects and the political handling of the international financial crisis turned out for street demonstrations.
Spanish banks have been given 15 days to submit plans to meet an obligatory €30bn recapitalisation, or face nationalisation.

The top U.S. grain groups on Thursday called for federal regulators to delay the start of 22-hour grains trading at CME Group and rival (ICE) Intercontinental Exchange.

(TEF) Telefonica posted a net profit of EUR748 million in Q1, down 54% from EUR1.62 billion in the same period a year earlier, missing forecasts of EUR1.31 billion.

The U.S. producer price index fell 0.2% in April

China’s gold output in the first three months of the year reached 80.8 tonnes, up 10% YoY.

The U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to a new post-recession high of 77.8

Chinese ratings provider Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. said Friday that it upgraded the local and foreign currency sovereign credit rating of Greece from D to CC with a negative outlook.

Next Update Saturday May 12

2012-05-08T18:32:00.000-07:00

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2012-05-06T15:03:00.000-07:00

Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett's company said Friday its first-quarter profit more than doubled.

Euro-zone unemployment rose to a new 15-year high of 10.9% U.S. factory orders fell 1.5% in March

Steve Wozniak, a co-founder of Apple, describes the Nokia Lumia screen as "much more beautiful" than that of the iPhone and Android phones. ( Comparison )

Australia cuts interest rate by larger-than-expected half-point to 3.75%

Indonesia’s Inflation Accelerates to Seven-Month High of 4.5%

U.S Crude oil stocks rose 2.8 million barrels in the week ending April 27.
Gasoline stocks fell 2.0 million barrels.
Distillate stocks fell 1.9 million barrels.

Bloomberg: The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in the first quarter as borrowers lost homes to foreclosure and tighter inventory and credit kept buyers off the market. The rate dropped to 65.4 percent from 66 percent in the fourth quarter and fell a full percentage point from a year earlier, the Census Bureau said in a report . That is the lowest level since the first quarter of 1997, and down from a record 69.2 percent in June 2004.

The CME announced, that beginning May 13 for trade date May 14, customers will have expanded access to CBOT corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil futures and options on CME. Globex as follows: •Sunday to Monday, 5:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT •Monday to Friday, 6:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. CT. (Hell, they could lose 5 cents to the ICE) Change in plans (CME f/u) will be delayed by one week to May 21.

“The Scream" sells for record $119.9 million at Sotheby's auction, far exceeding $80 million estimate. ( Somebody is smiling )

In reference to Mr. Obama’s remarks regarding speculators. "People need to study their facts before criticizing speculators," said Mr. Duffy, whose Chicago Company is the largest futures exchange, said in an interview. He pointed out “correctly” that speculators provide vital liquidity to a host of markets.

AIG net income rose to $3.2 billion, or $1.71 a share, in the three months that ended March 31.

(Guardian) seven in ten Americans now believe that "global warming is affecting the weather." 35 % of the respondents reported that extreme weather had affected them personally in 2011.

Japan's last active reactor has shut down, leaving the country without nuclear energy for the first time since 1970. All 50 commercial reactors in the country are now offline. LNG Heading for Asia?

Next Update Sunday May 6

2012-04-30T00:28:00.001-07:00

2012-04-29T13:33:00.002-07:00

Hollande's 'Growth Bloc' spells end of German hegemony in Europe Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

For two years Germany has had its way in Europe, treating historic nations much as Bismarck treated Bavaria – sovereign only in name.

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2012-04-29T13:28:00.002-07:00

U.S. economic expansion eased to 2.2% in Q1
U.S. consumer sentiment levels off; it only rose to 76.4 from 76.2 in March
U.S. first time claims for unemployment benefits decreased 1,000 to 388,000. 24.4 % of

Spanish workforce are unemployed BOJ announces additional 62 bln USD monetary easing program

The growth of China's inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.3%in April from the previous month with the slowing of food price rises, according to a report released by the Bank of Communications.

EQIX revenues rose 25% YoY.

UN (Unilever) announced sales growth of 8.4% with emerging markets up 11.9% and developed markets up 4.2%.

BAYRY (Bayer) Earnings rose 14% to EUR1.59 billion

HGSI’s loss narrowed to $93.5 million (loss of 47 cents per diluted share) from $131 million (loss of 69 cents per share) YoY. Revenue rose 77.4% to $47.1 million from the year-earlier quarter.

(NYT) Upward mobile consumers from much poorer countries are about to surpass Americans in their share of the world economy. Living standards in the developing world are improving so quickly that those countries are now beginning to drive global economic growth.

The National Association of Realtors reports that pending home sales increased 4.1% in March to a new 23-month high.

Starbucks announced that for the quarter ended April 1, profit was $309.9 million, or 40 cents a share, up from $261.6 million or 34 cents a share in the same 2011 period. Revenue climbed 15% to $3.2 billion.

Titanic director James Cameron is backing a company with Google billionaires Larry Page and Eric Schmidt to mine asteroids in space, called Planetary Resources.

2012-04-26T19:50:00.000-07:00

Big Changes in Ocean Salinity Intensifying Water Cycle
"Changes to the global water cycle and the corresponding redistribution of rainfall will affect food availability, stability, access, and utilization," says lead author Paul Durack at the University of Tasmania and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

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2012-04-24T14:29:00.001-07:00

ATT reported Q1 earnings of $0,60 per share, expected $0.57. Revenues rose 1.8 % YoY. U.S.

New home sales fell 7.1% in Feb. The Midwest is down 20% and 27% in the West. The rest saw modest gains. Inventory dropped from 146,000 in Feb to 144,000 in March – a new low. The Median sales price rose 6.3% to $234,500. Pulte Homes rose 5%, after the U.S. Commerce Department said new homes sold at an annual rate of 328,000 last month.

(Spiegel) The collapse of the Dutch government, the prospect of Socialist François Hollande as next French president and the surging popularity of far-right parties shows that budget discipline is out of fashion in Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel is looking increasingly lonely in her fight to save the euro through painful austerity measures, write German commentators.

Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal, International Monetary Fund data show.

A dairy cow in California tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (Mad Cow),USDA announced.

Oil World reduced estimates of Argentina’s soy crop to 42.5 mmt, down from the USDA’s 45 mmt and down 1.5 mmt from its previous estimate.

Apple’s profit rose 94% to $12.30 a share. iPhone sales rose 88% YoY -- beating the most optimistic forecast.

2012-04-23T00:27:00.001-07:00

IMF encourages Europe's economic suicide
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

“Rather than admit that they’ve been wrong, European leaders seem determined to drive their economy — and their society — off a cliff,” said Professor Krugman.

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2012-04-22T15:31:00.000-07:00

(WSJ) Yum earned $458 million, or 96 cents a share,, up from $264 million, or 54 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago. Excluding items, the company would have earned 76 cents a share. Revenue hit $2.74 billion, a 13% gain.

(WSJ) Qualcomm reported a profit of $2.23 billion, or $1.28 a share, up from $999 million, or 59 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding 41-cents per-share earnings from the Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives segment, stock-based compensation and other items, per-share earnings rose to $1.01 from 86 cents. Revenue improved 28% to $4.94 billion.

U. S. Crude oil stocks increased 3.9 million barrels, gasoline stocks decreased by 3.7 million. Distillate stocks decreased 2.9 million barrels. Ethanol stocks rose 0.2 million to 22.0 million barrels.

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) announced that it has received an unsolicited proposal from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to acquire HGS for $13.00 per share in cash.

E-Trade Financial reported Thursday its Q1 profit rose to $62.6 million, or 22 cents a share. Up from 16 cents a share YoY.

China’s media reports that the province of Heilongjang, which is its largest soybean producer, is suffering through its worst drought in a decade.
A Friday rumor on the soybean floor that Brazil is cutting off exports produced a good rally. Soy meal is making new highs.

EBAY reported that revenue for Q1 rose 29% to $3.3 billion, compared to the same period of 2011.

Microsoft Corp. reported Q3 profit of $5.11 billion, or 60 cents a share, on $17.41 billion in revenue.

The Federal Reserve says banks will have two years to comply with a rule that would ban them from trading for their own profit. The so-called Volcker rule is expected to take effect this summer. But the Fed clarified that it won’t enforce it until July 2014.

Yum (YUM) reported Q1 earnings increased of 21% YoY

AIA (AAGIY) Group first quarter new business value rose 27%

Japan's trade deficit in the past fiscal year ending in March stood at 4.41 trillion yen (about 54. 19 billion U.S. dollars), marking the worst ever reading for the country.

Brazil cut the basic interest rate from 9.75% to 9%.

A prominent Chinese think tank issued a forecast saying China's grain output is likely to grow for the ninth consecutive year in 2012. (Good thing the weather doesn’t have a memory, or the odds of that happening would be slim)

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT), the world's largest retailer, squelched an internal investigation into allegations of bribery at its Mexican subsidiary instead of broadening the probe, the New York Times reported

Next Update Sunday

2012-04-17T20:57:00.000-07:00

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2012-04-17T20:22:00.000-07:00

Fullerene C60 administration doubles rat lifespan with no toxicity.

JP Morgan’s Copper ETF getting closer.

U.S. Housing starts fell 5.8% last month to an annual rate of 654,000 from a slightly revised 694,000 in February. Permits rose 4.5% to 747,000 in March from a revised 715,000 in February.

KO reported a 3% rise in profit to 89 cents per share, topping estimates by 2 cents. Sales grew 6% to $11.14 billion, over estimates of $10.82 billion. That reflects higher volumes and a 3% increase in pricing.

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2012-04-15T17:26:00.000-07:00

Italy's industrial output fell 0.7% MoM, and 6.8% YoY.

Prichard: The Middle-East "war-premium" in current oil prices is poised to fall after a tentative breakthrough on Iran's nuclear programme over the weekend, offering a soothing tonic for battered equity markets across the world.

The Obama administration welcomes China’s move to expand the Yuan’s trading band against the dollar, saying it could help to shrink global trade imbalances.

Geithner on Sunday urges lawmakers to approve the “Buffett Rule” to tax millionaires, framing the proposal as an issue of tax fairness this election year.

France saw a rise the number of new enterprises established in March from the previous month thanks to a favorable economic and investment climate, official data showed on Friday.According to national statistics bureau Insee, 51,329 new firms were set up in March, up by 8.4 percent from February.

Britain's PPI rose 0.6% in March.

Cocoa NY stocks new high.

Comex Silver inventory new high.

Next Update Sunday

2012-04-12T19:30:00.001-07:00

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2012-04-10T21:18:00.001-07:00

Madrid’s 10-year bond yields rose above 6% for first time since December, raising fears that it could be forced to seek emergency loans.

The Japanese central bank decided on Tuesday to keep its key interest rate unchanged and refrain from fresh monetary easing steps, dashing market hopes.

U.S. Industrial Production Index for Manufacturing rose 0.4% MoM, and 5.4% YoY.

The Russian Central Bank on Monday announced a decision to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 8%.

U.S. consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 4.2% in February, a positive sign of consumers' growing confidence in the economy.

China's economic growth is set to moderate slightly over the next two years but will exceed 8%, on the back of strong investment, rising private consumption and a more stable global economy, the Asian Development Bank said Wednesday.

The Philippine government says its largest warship is engaged in a standoff with Chinese surveillance vessels that blocked it when it attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen anchored at a South China Sea shoal where both sides claim sovereignty.

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2012-04-08T20:04:00.001-07:00

So far, Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Kraft have ended their membership in the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC.

The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March, marking the smallest increase in five months.

Researchers led by biologist Chensheng Lu of Harvard University report a direct link between hive health and dietary exposure to imidacloprid, a so-called neonicotinoid pesticide linked to colony collapse disorder, the mysterious and massive die-off of bees across North America and Europe. Relevant to bayry, corn and BEES!

China's Q1 GDP rose 8.4%, CPI rose 3.5% .

MoM Japan's key composite economic index rose 1.0 point in February.

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2012-04-03T17:28:00.000-07:00

(Bloomberg)The Federal Reserve is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 percent target. “A couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below” 2 percent, according to minutes of their March 13 meeting released today in Washington.

(FT) The world’s largest producer of chocolate products has warned that there could be supply problems in the mid to long term.

Carbon at new low: Data show a bigger than expected drop in the amount of pollution emitted by power plants and factories in the EU’s emissions trading system.

U.S. factory orders rose 1.3% in February; January revised down to 1.1% drop.

YoY General Motors posts 11.8% monthly sales growth.

(Spiegel) Many German politicians and tax collectors are furious about Switzerland's decision to issue arrest warrants against three German officials who bought a stolen CD with tax data. The move has gone down well in Switzerland, where politicians have praised the country's assertiveness. But it is unclear how the Swiss authorities will proceed -- the main witness is dead.

A dozen U.S. companies, GE and JNJ amongst them, have agreed to disclose more about their lobbying efforts in return for avoiding public showdowns at their annual meetings.

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2012-04-01T15:15:00.001-07:00

Owners of VLCC tankers have something to cheer for once again, as shipbrokers are hailing the sector for its performance, on the back that currently there is greater oil demand than at any time since the economic turmoil of the autumn of 2008.

(Arlan Suderman) Based on USDA's demand estimates for the year ahead (USDA is notorious for under-estimating demand) today's acreage estimate would suggest that Soybean stocks would run dry even with a record yield this year.

European finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on Friday agreed to boost the euro-zone firewall to over 800 billion Euros. The move marks another U-turn on the part of the Merkel administration, which recently dropped its opposition to increasing the fund. German commentators warn that even the new firewall may still be too small.

(Anne Kadet SmartMoney) Some academics say we may well be reverting to historical norms, returning to pre-New Deal conditions in which most Americans had to work until they, well, dropped. The number of working people over age 65 reached an all-time low in 2001, when just 13 percent held a job. Now that rate is rebounding, and fast; last summer, it hit 18 percent, a level not seen since Kennedy faced the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Japan’s industrial output fell 1.2% in Feb.
Japan’s jobless rate fell to 4.5% in Feb.

China's economic growth is expected to ease to 8.2% in the first quarter of this year from 8.9% in the last quarter of 2011, according to a report issued Saturday by the Bank of China.

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2012-03-29T19:30:00.002-07:00

U.S. First time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 359,000 in the week ending March 24.

US GDP (gross domestic product) grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%.

British service sector grows 0.2% in January.

France's GDP grows 1.7% in 2011.

(Independent) Fires raging unchecked in an Indonesian peat swamp forest could wipe out the remaining Sumatran orangutans which live there, conservationists are warning. The forest is one of the last refuges of the great apes. The illegal fires, started by palm-oil companies clearing land to plant the lucrative crop, are believed to have killed at least 100 orangutans.

Bank of Spain predicted that the Spanish economy will continue in recession and unemployment will continue to rise in the first quarter of 2012 - an estimated 900,000 people took to the streets in Madrid.

Seasonal fishing bans will be imposed on the Pearl River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in April. The move is part of China's efforts to rescue its declining wild fishing resources, and is in addition to bans in six other provinces and regions.

(Bloomberg) Copper traders are the most bearish in two months after stockpiles tracked by the biggest metals bourse rose for the first time in five weeks.

2012-03-27T17:44:00.002-07:00

The race to slake a continent’s thirstWith its French joint-venture partner, Castel, SABMiller has 60% of Africa’s commercial beer market in volume terms, including a near-monopoly in South Africa. But other global brewers are keen to expand in Africa too, as they seek growth markets to compensate for flat or falling beer sales in the rich world. Heineken, already the biggest brewer in Nigeria, recently paid a princely $163m for two Ethiopian breweries put up for sale by the government. With Diageo, the leader in Kenya, these four brewers account for around 80% of the African market.

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2012-03-27T17:20:00.002-07:00

U.S. consumer confidence fell to 70.2, down from 71.6 in February.

Data through January 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed annual declines of 3.9% and 3.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively.

The 'pink slime' controversy in the beef markets could actually be good news for the livestock markets. We will require "more" meat to make up the extra supply needed.

Alternative energy: Wooden batteries The Economist
Consumer confidence for Germany declined to 5.9 in April from 6.0 points in March.
Jobless rate in France rose by 0.2% in February for the 10th successive month.
Hong Kong's average wage rate rose 9.4% YoY.

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2012-03-25T19:00:00.001-07:00

Commercial beekeepers and environmental organizations filed a petition, asking federal regulators to suspend use of a pesticide they say harms honeybees. The group is urging the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to ban the insecticide clothianidin, one of a class of chemicals that act on the central nervous system of insects.

U.S. Existing home sales fell 0.9% from February.

The Biotechnology Industry Organization applauded the Faster Access to Specialized Treatments (FAST) Act. According to BIO the legislation will modernize the Accelerated Approval pathway to expedite the development of modern, targeted, and personalized therapies for patients suffering from serious and life-threatening diseases.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week by 1.16 million barrels to 346.29 million barrels

Fed chairman exhorts Europe's leaders to beef up its banks.

A tax on financial transactions could help improve revenues for EU cities and regions, the president of the European Parliament said.

Britain revised expectation of economic growth rate to 0.8%.

The number of paid employees of Macao's gaming sector reached 50,198 at the end of 2011, an increase of 12% YoY.

A gang of women - described as blonde, bilingual and well educated - have been taking Brazilian shopping malls by storm, kidnapping shoppers and maxing out their credit cards, police say.