Ironman's Fundamental Analysis

2011

2010-12-31T17:08:00.000+10:00

Hi Everyone Happy New Year to all, I am not one for predictions or forecasts but seeing everyone else makes them at this time of the year, I suppose I may as well throw my hat into the ring as well. Everything I read about the Aussie dollar is bullish and whilst most of these forecasts are made off hard data, like anything it deals with history to predict the future. There is no denying that

AUD Analysis

2010-12-21T19:41:00.000+10:00

AUD has prooved once again that it can be a little bullett prrof, although I do think its far from convincing. In November we made a beautiful hammer on the monthly chart. The retrace of this hammer has been expected and anticipated, as long as we keep under parity and definitely dont close above 10020, then I believe it to be in play and significant. Coming down to the daily chart, the

NZD Analysis

2010-12-20T14:16:00.001+10:00

I have been banging on a bit about NZD lately on twitter and I thought I might document some of my thought process and technical analysis into the blog as sometimes its hard to convery all of these thoughts into a tweet. As regular readers are aware I conduct top down analysis of my pairs but rarely look much under the daily timeframe, so starting with the Monthly chart lets get started. The

QE Arrives

2010-11-08T16:55:00.000+10:00

Hello All If you had asked me 6 months ago whether the US federal reserve would of implemented QE2. I would of taken that bet and said NO WAY after the abject failure of QE1, how wrong I was. As a trader I am delighted they have gone this path it makes life pretty simple and predictable. 1. USD will be come weak 2. Risk on for AUD, EUR, GBP and all the rest against the USD 3. Commodities will

Intraday Thoughts

2010-08-16T17:39:00.000+10:00

Hello Everyone I always find monday's difficult I am sure all of you do too, regardless of the leads that come from friday's trading session, it always seem like the slate gets wiped clean at the start of the new week. And so it is that this week started in asia with a burst to the downside following the lead that wall street provided. I always keep my powder dry first thing monday, its better

Thoughts

2010-08-11T12:22:00.000+10:00

Yesterdays decision by the US Federal Reserve should set the tone for the next little while and give some certainty to very uncertain markets. The new measures don't really inject any new funding into the system they just dont reduce the amount of government money being injected. I was asked the other day by a young guy I am helping teach some trading methods too exactly what is Quantitive Easing

Short squeeze could short lived

2010-07-06T19:59:00.000+10:00

The last few weeks have been a struggle to say the least in currency land. I myself have at times been awfully confused at some of the price action we have seen lately. What is becoming clear is countries need to make a choice between extraordinary growth and huge debt or responsible budget's but risk snuffing out growth in the short term. The bond market has been very agressive lately,

Turning the Corner

2010-06-08T08:59:00.000+10:00

As a fundamental trader the market conditions have been ridiculously difficult over the last few weeks, at times it has reached the point of the ridiculous and I for one hopes it settles down and starts respecting fundamentals once again. In the last month there has been huge amounts of money pushed into US bonds as market participants run for the safe havens namely gold, and US paper. On April

China Problems

2010-06-01T12:27:00.000+10:00

Hello All Today a bit of news came across my desk that is super interesting that I thought I would share. Bloomberg published an article which is talking about bonds issued by property related companies in China and how yields have widened significantly in the first 5 months of this year. I immediately took an interest as this scenario is exactly what happened to US property companies prior to

Oversold

2010-05-17T21:43:00.000+10:00

Hello Folks Why didn't someone tell me how much fun holidays were I would of done it sooner (haha), anyway just wanted to share a thought process with you. I was perusing the COT data from last friday this morning, and I think the Euro might be getting close to extreme oversold, now please consider that I have barely looked at a chart in the last week so perhaps my thought pattern could be

FYI

2010-05-11T19:23:00.000+10:00

Folks As you may or may not have guessed by now thats right I am holidays for the next couple of weeks, I very tired from such an aggressive open to this years FX market, so a good rest is whats needed, trade safe, take care and i will see you all very soon Simon

EURJPY Live Trade

2010-05-03T13:17:00.002+10:00

Hello Folks Today I have taken a trade in EURJPY, now that a multi year multi billion dollar deal has been done this to me looks like a good time to get in. The COT data from last week was very clear with massive Euro short contracts of 123k, this is a clear sign that the market wants to short to euro. Although this morning Asian open is very very thin without Tokyo and todays european session

EURJPY Live Trade

2010-04-16T11:08:00.002+10:00

Hello Folks The other trade for today is EURJPY, I have similar reasons for taking this trade as its a yen pair also. Short covering has been the name of the game in euro for the last week or so. I was pretty satisfied thats all it was when it failed to break 128, todays impending release of COT data should see an increase in the amount of sellers in euro, as I believe the big names would be

GBPJPY Live Trade

2010-04-16T10:56:00.005+10:00

Hello Folks Once again thought i would share my trades with you, today I have an open position in GJ, over the last week or more cable has been going uppurely on speculayion of election results more than anything. Its been a hard pair to read and or tackle. Some of the reasons I have for this trade are as follows:PA pushed to R1 weekly pivot yesterday at 145.07 before running into real money

Markets eventually get it right

2010-04-14T17:06:00.000+10:00

Today is very interesting day in a fundamental sense the singapore dollar which is manipulated with exchange rates rather than interest rates was moved today by the authorities in Singapore. They did this to counteract one of the big downsides to recovery, rising inflation, almost immediately the USD/SGD dropped by over 1% (as expected with news like this the SGD would strengthen), all the over

GBP/JPY Live Trade

2010-04-13T11:20:00.001+10:00

Morning All Always best to wait for Tuesday some days, what a hot mess the market was yesterday, all over the place, things are starting to look a lot clearer this morning, this brings me to todays trade. Reasons for Entering 1. GJ has reached and rejected its short term range high at around 144.20ish2. COT data from last friday still pointing to lots of sellers, so selling with the strength

AUDJPY Live Trade

2010-04-08T11:06:00.007+10:00

Hi Guys Here is the latest trade Reasons for this trade 1. Rejection of the top at 87.502. Bearish daily pinbar close3. China revaluation speculation should weigh on the topside in aussie4. Yen buying on the back of weaker US bond yields Entry - 86.50Stop 1 - 86.85Stop 2 - 87.20Take Profit 1 - 85.85Take Profit 2 - 84.70Take Profit 3 - 82.90Take Profit 4 - 81.10Runner - TBA Update 1 - Admin Fee

EURJPY Live Trade

2010-04-06T13:46:00.004+10:00

Hi Everyone Todays live trade is detailed below Reasons for Entering Daily bearish candle indicating the turn in sentiment The rejection of the 128 area Cot data once again indicating the load of shorts in Euro back over 120K contracts More bad news for Greece, now trying to sell their debt in US. Entry -127.05 Stop Loss 1 -127.42Stop Loss 2 -127.92Profit 1 -125.50Profit 2 -124.00Profit 3 -

GBPAUD Live Trade

2010-03-31T10:56:00.009+10:00

Hi Everyone Todays live trade is detailed below Reasons for EnteringI have a theory regarding the pound that its going to keep seeing buyers until the election is called/ and or run and won, market is short but I feel more short covering is coming Recent price action has been unable to break the bottom at 6380ish The aussie is very long and needs a rest, its probably not going to get one, but

USDJPY Live Trade

2010-03-30T11:48:00.001+10:00

Hi Everyone Todays live trade is detailed below Reasons for EnteringThree consecutive days of a topping formation at around 92.50ish US bond yield starting to soften somewhat in part cause by another bullish run on US equities A pullback is long overdue Pinbar on todays daily chart with an open and close lower than the previous Entry - 92.49Stop Loss 1 - 92.75Stop Loss 2 - 93.05Profit 1 -

EURUSD Live Trade

2010-03-24T16:55:00.006+10:00

Hello Folks Thought I would past my most recent trade to the blog, I have been waiting for EU to show some signs that it wanted to move lower, all this backwards and forwards action in the euro zone, will they won't they speculation around Greece. For me a daily close below 1.3500 was always going to be a significant number in my mind for a short entry. Germany is clearly showing signs it can't/

EURJPY Live Trade

2010-03-18T11:49:00.014+10:00

Hello Everyone Yesterday was an interesting day with the refusal for eurjpy at 125.00, with plenty of supply seen at this level during the New York session we have seen falls to around the 124.00 level and further falls expected after a very bearish close at the tokyo open this morning. My reasons for this trade Bearish pin bar close on todays daily candle 125.00 handle supply eventuated and was

Observations and Trades

2010-03-16T16:08:00.001+10:00

Hi Everyone Its a pretty interesting day today after quite a bit of movement overnight in London and New York. I want to share some observations on the market that I am seeing so far. In Aussie i was waiting for the daily close but after looking at what happened to price during the New York session last night I am pretty luke warm about shorting the aussie at the present time. It's retreat from

GBPAUD Live Trade

2010-03-15T13:37:00.002+10:00

Hi Everyone I thought would post my latest live trade being the GBPAUD. this pair has basically been in free fall for a very long time now, with the short term short covering in GBP and the over inflation of the Aussie dollar and the imminent reversal/profit taking, I feel it time for this trade. Entry - 1.6545Stop 1 - 1.6520Stop 2 - 1.6480Profit Take 1 - 1.6750Profit Take 2 - 1.6970Runner - To

Euro Shorts Still Loading

2010-03-13T14:17:00.005+10:00

Another week and some short covering is emerging in the Euro. At last we have had some movement in the euro in an upwards direction, do I think it will last, well the market doesn't seem to think so.With the release of the latest round of COT data yesterday, we have yet another increase in euro shorts to 107,000 from 102,000 the previous week. I also notice the rejection of EURUSD at the top of