On July 14th, JESS3‘s founder Jesse Thomas posted a self-proclaimed rant entitled why Foursquare sucks on the JESS3 blog.  As with many things JESS3 related, which include the Conversion Prism, the recent Facebook 500 million user Facebok Stories campaign, and the State of The Internet video, Jesse’s rant garnered a fair amount of interest.  Foursquare’s CEO tweeted a response, the infamous Mark Cuban sent Jesse an e-mail, and several online media conduits picked up the story.

However, was the rant newsworthy as a consequence of the source or its innate truth? (The answer likely falls at the intersection of the two.) The crux of the rant’s message is relatively straightforward: “Google and Facebook will rule the world” [at Foresquare and other similar companys' peril], because the active geosocial check-in process is burdensome, and Google and Facebook is positioned to improve upon it.

Could this be? Will Foursquare prove unable to harmonize the active/passive check in dichotomy and will Google or Facebook’s broader competitive advantage prove to be an competitor killer?

THE PREMISE

Jesse’s premise is based on the notion that people (especially Americans) are lazy. As such, the active geosocial experience (“AGE”) — that is, opening an app on your smartphone to check-in or access Foursquare, Gowalla, Loopt, Brightnight or Yelp — is burdensome. People will eventually tire of the services in the long run in favor of more efficient applications.

The entity that is able to perfect the passive geosocial experience (“PGE”) — where phones have the ability to check in automatically on a user’s behalf — will prevail.

THE EXISTING IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CHECK IN SPECTRUM

 In its current state, there are two primary ways to check in to Foursquare, and both require interaction. First, you can manually check in by loading the application, identifying your location, and tapping the check in button. This task is less than arduous, which may account for the company’s impressive growth rate… but checking in still takes time and effort. How long will it be until users begin to resent a perceived obligation to check-in to every place they visit during the day?

Second, if an establishment has received a Foursquare QR code – a highly popular type of bar code that was invented in Japan in 1994 – users may instantly check in by scanning the QR code with their phone’s camera. Though, two primary hurdles must be overcome if widespread adoption of QR codes in the US is realized (as is the case in Japan).

First, as pointed out by Techcrunch.com,”cell-phone barcode scanning is still an unnatural act for most people.” I question the persuasiveness of this argument.  Drawing analogy, many individuals the same argument about text messaging just a few years back. Presented with the correct motivation (e.g; incentive to actually utilize the QR code, be it discounts, efficiency, or otherwise), I believe people will embrace the technology.

Second, QR codes lack standardization and anyone can create them with ease.  On the one hand, that is part of the QR Code’s beauty.  On the other, with so many options and competition, will establishments be forced to have a QR code wall?  One for Google, one for Foursquare, one for Gowalla, one for Loopt, etc…? 

A solution would be some variety of code standardization, but this reality seems a bit far fetched.  For example, as Google’s QR code links to the establishment’s Google Places page it would essentially be useless to Foursquare (unless the could reroute the information).

Alternatively, if standardization were to take place, the system could be relatively simple.  Scan the barcode and you could be prompted with a list of the different applications that could utilize the information.  Given that there are currently close to three-hundred bar code readers, I don’t expect that such functionality would be difficult to manifest.

AN OPPORTUNITY FOR #OPENGOV

Given the OpenGov push as of late, an (un)likely hero for QR Codes standardization and distribution may be the U.S. Postal Service (“USPS”).  The USPS has successfully relied on barcodes as a tool to improve the speed, accuracy and delivery of mail for quite some time. (See https://ribbs.usps.gov/index.cfm?page=intellmailmailpieces)

Imagine the implications if the USPS were to encourage (or even supply) business across the nation with a QR Code.  For the USPS, mail processing could be further automated, commercial mail delivery increasingly streamlined, and new services could be offered (a new form of barcode delivery tracking).

Further, the ramifications trickle-down impact could yield quantifiable benefits to the private sector as well. In addition to benefiting geosocial based companies, UPS, FEDEX, delivery companies, and companies that make deliveries could utilize the QR Code as an efficiency tool as well.

EXISTING CHECK IN TECH’S SHORTCOMINGS

Whereas the fully functional PGE will inevitably become the future of the geospatial user tracking experience as technology advances, check in technology in its current state remains relegated to a lesser functionality.

As Foursquare indicates, this is due to the fact that “[m]odern mobile phones use various combinations of GPS, Wi-Fi, and cell tower triangulation to estimate a phone’s location. Depending on which of these signals is available, the reported location can be very accurate (down to 10m/30ft if GPS is turned on and you are outside in the open where satellites are visible) or wildly approximate (somewhere in a 5km/3mi circle).”

To fall back on the rant’s example, existing smartphones are able to check in at a large open structure such as Yankee stadium as there is no interference above it. However, if you find yourself attempting to check in to a specific office on the 30th floor of a 200 story building the odds are against you.

Mainstream existing technology simply can’t accurately distinguish your position well enough. And really, “tak[ing] the phone outdoors so it has line of sight to GPS satellites” as Foursquare suggests isn’t really a practical solution. 

THE NEXT EVOLUTION OF CHECK IN TECH – RFID’S

Many believed bi-directional RFID chips would be integrated within cellphones on a significant scale as early as this year. As we have already made it through half of the year and such phones are not yet mainstream, I wouldn’t hold your breath.

But that is not to say that the technology may not make in appearance in the near future.  When it does becomes available it’ll be a significant step closer to a true PGE experience. In essence, you could walk in to a building (and assuming your phone is close enough to the RFID reader) your phone could automatically check in.

Similar to the QR Code, RFID check in points could be located at building entries (providing a list of occupants), business lobbies or more.

THE IDEAL – A FLEXIBLE PASSIVE GEOSOCIAL EXPERIENCE

When technology allows for mainstream adoption of the PGE, would you want it? In all likelihood, the answer is “maybe.” I want my phone to have the ability to check in on my behalf, but that does not mean that I necessarily want it to do so.

I intend to retain dominion over my online identity. Do you?

While some may harbor concerns about remaining on grid and traceable at all times of the day, it is probable that the majority of people possess some degree of reservation. Inasmuch, I believe that although PGE will be possible, successful implementation will require flexibility.

In this flexible passive geosocial experience (“FPGE”), your phone could check you in based on a variety of settings of your choosing. Rules would be 100% customizable to your desires: by application, and customizable on a store or category level. For example, you could choose to always check in (e.g.; Starbucks) or never check in (e.g.; a gentleman’s club).  Alternatively, you could set your phone to streamline the check in process. 

Imagine the efficiency gained if your phone automatically recognized your location and pushed one of the of the following prompts:

The options are plentiful and life would be so much easier…

A FPGE ALGORITHOM

As confirmed by several recent studies, we are creatures of habit.  People tend to follow near-identical travel patterns and visit the same stores, restaurants and bookstores as their friends.  It is exactly this predictability that may provide the key to nearly perfect the FPGE. 

On should not forget that Google was founded on its search engine technology. They have honed an uncanny ability to mine large amounts of information for connections and idiosyncrasies. In that regard, given what the Google already knows about you (who you are, who you communicate with, what you search for) what is preventing it from creating an algorithm to predict your location when the existing geolocation methods fails? 

In similar fashion, Facebook (with the help of Microsoft) could utilize its own information dataset with identical goals.  Imagine this scenario:  Upon entering the 200 story office building your phone loses connection.  However, your phone (via Google or Facebook) knows the locatin where you lost the ability to geolocate, and provides an automated listing of the businesses whithin that you will likely visit: “Are you are going to one of these three locations: yes/no?”

GOOGLE AND OTHERS APPEAR POISED TO CHALLENGE

Despite Google’s numerous not as successful as hoped attempts at social networking (which include Dodgeball, Jaiku, Orkut, Latitude, Lively, and Buzz) it may finally be positioned to effectively take on the geosocial industry mainstays. Just yesterday Engadget reported that Google Maps for Android added dedicated “Places” for searching nearby locations. This is notable as Google is actively pushing 2D barcode adoption via places and has already distributed nearly 200,000 Google QR codes to businesses.

For more information on Google’s implementation of the QR code, visit any of the following links:

Meanwhile, Microsoft is pursuing 2D barcode adoption via the Microsoft Tag program.  This edeavor, which ended its beta phase in May, recently announced a $725,000 giveaway with Allure Magazine.

It appears a geosocial battle has begun…