It's So Obvious

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Fri, 20 Oct 2006 12:42:00 +0000

My Mother, George Bush, and NYMEX Energy

As I have noted, here, and, here, fossil fuels have defied burgeoning inventories and reasonable demand for most of the year 2006 with rising prices. Through the end of July markets exhibitied this paradox under the psychological stresses of bellicose rhetoric throughout the producing regions and hurricane fears at home.

Only recently have traders begun to sell into this rosy inventory picture with the decline of fears over supply disruptions. The result has been a roughly $20/bbl decline in price, products show a similar decline. This sell off ended 4 weeks ago showing a fairly abrupt bottom, with support at $58/bbls or so. The chart, below left, shows this "sideways" pattern visually.

The current inventory picture for crude, again products are similar is that stocks remain above "hi-normal", by a long shot. (See EIA Chart Below). The wave of selling however has been absent since mid-September. How much longer can a market with such a fundamentally bearish picture persist in this sideways pattern?

OPEC has finally managed, after many false starts, to come up with some kind of production cut. Details remain undone, but 1.2 million bbls/day seems to be the number. The markets saw this yesterday as yet another excuse to ignore healthy supply. We have thus travelled since January 1, 2006, only to end up around $60/bbl, the very price at which we started the year.

When the "fundamentals", that is, supply and demand will not move a market, then it is the news, or the psychologicals that will hold sway.

The MSM, (or is it me?), have given practically no attention to the fact that the Eisenhower Carrier Group of the US Navy is set to arrive off the coast of Iran tomorrow, October 21. This has been known for some time now, and is on the minds of traders more so than the rest of us it would seem.

I guess the ball is in Bushie's court, as it has been, as to whether our good domestic supply picture, coupled with forecasts for a warm winter will allow my mother to have a winter of lower heating costs.

Filed Under: Energy/Policy

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 17:20:00 +0000

It's So Obvious Observes National Energy Awareness Month: Part One

Imagine my surprise and sense of irony to find that the President, this President, had declared October to be National Energy Awareness Month. Call me suspicious, but this is the man who famously justified our exit from The Kyoto Protocol by advocating unbridled consumption with unmitigated gall, when he said, "The American way of life is not up for negotiation." Call me suspicious, but this was not done until October 12, almost halfway through this heralded month of "awareness", and three weeks before the election. Could it possibly be, Mr. Bush has found religion on petroleum consumption? Might he use energy, as he does with terrorism, when it is politically expedient to do so? What is the reality behind some of the presumed changes in policy that 2006 has wrought?

These are just some of the weighty and exciting considerations that It's So Obvious will ask while we observe National Energy Awareness Month, or, what is left of it. In the coming days, we will embark upon an exclusive, multi part review of the words behind the man behind the curtain during this banner year of changing rhetoric.

In order to be thorough, (I do have "multiple installments" after all), let us begin our first entry by simply correlating the leader's iterations on energy with the chart for NYMEX crude oil prices at the left. The chart is better read in a large, new window, so click if you wish. It will reveal 12 White House statements on energy beyween The State of the Union, (01/31/06), which was shocking in itself, and May 25 of this year. This equals the number of energy specific statements issued in all of 2005.

Five of these occurred when crude oil moved from approximately $61/bbl on 1/01/06 to $67.50/bbl at the end of February. Mr. Bush conveniently skipped the month of March when prices moved sideways. Undaunted, he had a stunning salvo of seven announcements between April 22 and May 25, when crude basically moved from $65/bbl to $75/bbl.

The year to date rounded out with 4 statements from July 17 thru October 12, only 2 of which dealt with domestic energy. Prices during this time dropped from roughly $77/bbl to $57/bbl.

Now, as I have often been taught, correlation does not imply causality. Therefore, I shall not jump to conclusions, but Fearless Leader does seem to speak a whole bunch when prices are notably rising. I suppose that this is as it should be. Another George, Washington, established a good many executive precedents, after all he was the first. Washington understood and acted accordingly in the belief that the president, even without legislative authority, can set the tone for the nation and congress with his words.

I would not mind Mr. Bush finding energy as an issue during times of crisis, real or otherwise, provided there is substance behind his words. But as we have learned, words are not often what they appear to be with the present administration.

In just 10 months we have traversed with the current George through a whirlwind of concepts that never seemed possible, The Advanced Energy Initiative To Help Break America's Dependence On Foreign Sources Of Energy, Solar Technology, the President's Four-Part Plan to Confront High Gasoline Prices, and CAFE Reform for Passenger Cars, to name just a few.

His words are bold and unusual, (for him), and over the balance of the month, I hope to examine a number of these in some detail, and hopefully provide some useful information along the way. Stay tuned.

Filed Under: Energy/Policy

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 00:28:00 +0000

Diesel Good, Ethanol Bad?

New diesel specs hit the pumps of America this past Sunday, something that was hardly noticed. I am at a loss to explain how this might have occurred during the reign of Bushco's otherwise devestating record on anything even remotely related to the environment, but the little bit I could find on the subject looks good.

The newly formulated diesel even has its own acronym, "ULSD", ultra low sulfur diesel, and its impact apparently occurs in two phases according to the NRDC:

"Cleaner diesel fuel will immediately cut soot emissions from any diesel vehicle by 10 percent. But when combined with a new generation of engines hitting the road in January, it will enable emission reductions of up to 95 percent"

Soot, or particulate matter, (PM), from diesel is an issue with respect to public health from inhalation, as well as providing condensation nuclei for acid rain. New engine technology will utilize "particulate traps" for this phase of the problem. Acid rain of course is also greatly influenced by SO2 and NOx emissions, which will also fall with the new ULSD, by even larger percentages. SO2, the strongest component of acid rain, apparently falls from 500 ppm to 15 ppm.

On the other hand, ethanol...?
Not ethanol per se, but, ethanol production plants may be subject to less stringent emissions rules. Supporters of course argue that such changes are necessary to help stimulate production to meet burgeoning demand, while critics point out, accurately I believe, that the industry has prospered just fine without the changes. Critics, count me as one, have raised the following possible motive for such a change:

"Environmental groups think one of the motives behind the new rule is to make it easier to change the type of fuel used to produce ethanol. Most of the industry now relies on natural gas, but several in the planning stages would burn coal, which is less expensive but produces far more pollution."

Maybe king coal is behind it. One thing is for certain, I am much more likely to believe that big business is the benficiary of most Bushco policies. Just a normal day in Bushworld I suppose to put a Carbon Cloud Over a Green Fuel.

Head on over to Energista, for a look at diesel, biodiesel, and ethanol, related to this whole issue.

Filed Under: Energy/Policy

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Mon, 16 Oct 2006 13:35:00 +0000

Strong Man Rule For Iraq? Part 2

In this post, I addressed some of the basic ideas that one would encounter during US History 101, and World History 102 in college. Specifically,the article looks at the notion that democracy is an exceedingly difficult form of government to establish requiring many years and certain special sets of circumstances, institutions, location, and population in order to be successful.

The logical questions arise from this discussion; Why did our government tell us it would be easy? Why did they not tell us about these complications before the invasion? Why were we not told that democracy takes root over the course of decades? How did anyone in this "MBA Administration" get out of college without knowing this? Well, they did know of course, they simply lied to us at the time.

The article further points out, using the same elementary, third semester concepts, that US policies in Iraq have actually created conditions that are ripe for strong man rule or dictatorship as the preferred form of political structure. Oh, the irony of such an analysis. The analysis is theoretical of course, but this item from "The Times Online" certainly caught my attention and made things less theoretical Iraqis call for five-man junta to end the anarchy.

"The Times" article begins as follows:

"IRAQ�??S fragile democracy, weakened by mounting chaos and a rapidly rising death toll, is being challenged by calls for the formation of a hardline �??government of national salvation�??.

The proposal, which is being widely discussed in political and intelligence circles in Baghdad, is to replace the Shi�??ite-led government of Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister..."

Some kind of salvation is needed over there. I found it interesting, that on the same day, David Brooks would appear on The Chris Matthews Show and offer up this gem about options the White House is considering:

"One of those options is trying to replace the current government which seems to be doing nothing."

Brooks qualifies his answer beyond that. Crooks and Liars has the video.

Iraq is a textbook example of conditions favoring a hardline government. Iraq had in the past, and has now, zero conditions to establish democracy. One could not graduate from college, let alone get an MBA without this information. Our government lied, which of course is no revelation.

UPDATE: Tom Engelhardt has a post up this morning which is similar, but more in depth than this one. Link here.

Filed Under: Politics

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 12 Oct 2006 21:50:00 +0000

Extraterrestrial Anthropology: Joey Ratz, The Latin Mass, and Organized Religion in General

DISCLAIMER/CAUTION: While I would contend that the substance of this post is something that would have to be admitted about organized religions on this planet, the rhetoric herein might be offensive to some readers on this sensitive subject. My position however, is irrelevant to one's belief in god(s), and is only relevant to the nature and common traits of earth bound organized religion. Proceed with an open mind.

Well, Pope Joey Ratz is ready to bring back the Latin, or "Tridentine" Mass which dates from the 6th century. Just when he was doing so well, having rescued all of those unbaptized babies from eternal mediocrity in the decidedly un-divine "limbo". For those of you who are not members of "the one true religion", (a position that the Vatican still clings to in its rhetroic and dogma), let me describe the latin mass in brief.

(You Tube link to a "High Mass". I believe it is celebrated by Fulton J. Sheen of television fame in the 1950's and 60's. Approx. 55 mins.)

The priest, or "celebrant", speaks in a language, (parts are in Greek also), that no one understands, except for the sermon, and mostly carries out his ritual with his back to the congregation. A return to mystery and secrecy from my perspective. This got me to resurrecting a long held analysis I have held about why organized religion makes me suspicious at least. Submitted:

The Extraterrestrial Anthropoligist
Consider what an extraterrestrial anthropologist might report back to his/her home planet about the nature of this pervasive, earthly institution. Organized religion throughout history has utilized many or all of the following qualities. It would be my assertion that such traits apply to the "witch doctor" in the Tarzan movies, as well as to the Catholic clergy, and most religions that have existed before, since, and in between.

1) The officials of these institution are and have been almost universally male. (This is enough to make one suspicious right away, but nevertheless, let us continue).
2) Officials are specially trained or educated. They possess a depth of knowledge, often knowledge that is portrayed as secret, that the rest of us cannot hope to attain.
3) As a result of this, the officials are perceived to have a closer, more personal and fundamental relationship with the deity(ies) than common folk. Their realtionship is somewhat exclusive to the rest of us.
4) The officials are therefore necessary to the ultimate fate of the practitioners. Practitioners "need" the officials in order to attain, (insert alternative appropriate noun here), slavation, etc.
5) The officials often wear special symbolic, magical, or quasi magical clothing, which can be regal and exclusionary in nature, thus further setting them apart and above the masses of their adherents.
6) Officials often utilize magical, or quasi magical implements in their duties and public appearences. (In Catholicism, my hometown paper recently showed the Bishop in his special clothes and hat, splashing holy water throughout a new Cataholic high school, and that incense burner the RCC uses at funerals and such is downright show business to my mind).
7) Officials have often been imbued with special magic powers, adding to their mystique, and furthering the separartion from the flock. (Curing the sick, absolution, the consecration, god(s) speak to them, etc).
8) Rituals are usually carried out on an elevated stage or "altar". It is highly unusual for members of the sect to tread here.
9) Officials almost always occupy a privileged place in society which is financed, often as a requirement of faith, on the backs of the faithful.

No thanks, I'll go to church if I want to do so, inside of my own head.

I cannot see that the Pope's recent signing of this universal indult is anything but a step backward to the hoo boo joo boo of secret, magic ritual that further separates clergy from the flock, and ensures their special, secert, elevated status. I find it ironic that one of his reasons is that this will encourage priests to be less showman-like.

Filed Under: god, and god knows what else, Social Science Musings

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 12 Oct 2006 10:46:00 +0000

Pre-Election Doldrums in Fossil Fuels; Bush Chomping at the Bit?

The EIA will release national petroleum stocks today, sometimes a situation that is awaited with great anticipation. This is not one of those times. Inventories for crude oil, gasoline, distillate, (heating oil/diesel, etc), and propane have ALL been significantly above high normal for a while now, and little could happen that will surprise the market in terms of supply and demand. Here is the NYMEX crude chart from yesterday's close, (Source):
As I noted in this post, the 'fundamentals', i.e., supply and demand for petroleum have been bearish for some time now, and for the forseeable future, (a couple of months?), prices will be under the influence of psychological and news factors. So what is the news that might attain influence and release us from these pre election doldrums?

Forecasts are for a mild winter, heating oil stocks are healthy, gasoline demand is reasonable domestically, though some have worried that the price decreases of late will change that by way of increased consumption. The Christmas season is approaching. OPEC is trying to work out a 1 million bbls/day production cut prior to their next meeting in December, but a long history of cheating on quotas will likely stymie that impact, and energy Secretary Bodeman has not even deemed to talk with them yet. Rosy.

Politically there would seem to be more tension, but it has not reared its head yet in terms of price. North Korea has the bomb, (probably), and as the chart shows, the NYMEX failed to notice. Iraqi production remains terrible, but that has been factored into price long ago.

US intentions toward Iran worry me for their potential impact on oil prices, the federal budget, the declining state of our military, and global security in general. As Michael Klare pointed out however, Bushco is not likely to do much about that until after November 7. I'm sticking with this interpetation, and the prospect of Bushie released from his pre election restraints is frightening.

Filed Under: Energy & Policy

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 12:08:00 +0000

An Open Letter to NC Voters

A local post today. It is from Blue NC, please consider the contents of this letter and adding your signature.

"To: North Carolinians with Republican Congressmen

On November 7th, you have the opportunity to change the course of history. Using the most powerful tool in the world, your vote, you can restore America's integrity and honor.

North Carolina Republicans in Congress have betrayed American values. They have sold us out to moneyed interests, driving up stock prices and driving down wages. They have pushed through health policies that protect drug companies instead of senior citizens. They have created massive deficits. They have condoned the practice of torture. They aren't taking care of your district because they aren't taking care of America. And if they stay in power any longer, bad will turn to worse. You can already see it coming.

The only way to change the course is for at least one house of Congress to be controlled by Democrats.

Your individual vote on November 7 could be the one that changes the world. So when you go to the polls, please cast your ballot for the Democratic candidate.

We are your neighbors here in North Carolina, and we thank you very much."

Link to Signatures, HERE.

Please consider also, the Republican imapct on your energy dollar. It is just plain wrong to pursue this kind of policy in something so vital to our national and economic security. We are the ones who ultimately pay the price.

I am a bit pressed for time on this day, and will retrun tomorrow.
Have a great day.

Filed Under: Politics

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Sat, 07 Oct 2006 21:10:00 +0000

CBS's "The Sound of Jazz" 1957: Fine and Mellow

December 8, 1957: This is one of the more famous film clips in all of jazz I would think. Some might call it trite to choose such an iconic piece for a blog, but it represents one of the classics, and who are we if we cannot recite the classics? Featuring a roster of players, and a gathering in one place, that is unprecedented in the present day. The clip is stark, very noir, and utterly candid.

It carries with it, for all of the artists, the elements of greatness. A naked performance, unadorned by synth, real time digital correction, light shows, dancers, or taped layered accompaniment. As a musician myself, I truly loathe such appurtenances in the modern industry, and have written what I believe to be a fairly definitive piece on real time digital processing here. There is a fine Dinah Washington video at the end of that post as well.

This is "late period" Billie Holiday, she would be dead less than 2 years after this appearence. The traditional interpretation, with which I agree, is that her voice had become brittle from years of hard living, but that her depth of emotion had never been more moving. Simply, she had matured as a performer. My favorite Billie recordings are late period, specifically, the Verve years, 1952-1959, with many of these same players.

Billie had a long relationship with tenor player, Lester Young, "the Prez". For reasons that I cannot recall, they had a falling out some years before this date. Watch for the look on her face as he finishes his solo at approximately 2:55. To my knowledge, they did not play together again.

Other players are, saxes; Ben Webster, Coleman Hawkins, Gerry Mulligan, trumpet; Doc Cheatham, Roy Eldridge, trombone; Vic Dickenson, guitar; Danny Barker, bass; Milt Hinton, piano; Mal Waldron, drums; Okie Johnson. The host, and I believe also producer is Robert Herridge.

Please enjoy.
The tune is: Fine and Mellow, which most sources say was authored by Bilie, and regardless, one of the signature tunes in her repertoire.

Filed Under: Music and Film

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Sat, 07 Oct 2006 00:04:00 +0000

Charles Taylor's Energy Record: Gotta Keep Consumption and Profits High

It is difficult to find much that Charles Taylor has to say publicly about US energy policy. On the one hand this is odd for one who is or was a member of The NC Energy Policy Council, NC Transportation Council, Chair of The Task Force on Environmental Balance, Vice-Chair, Energy Task Force, Vice Chair, Western North Carolina Environmental Council, and Chair of The House Subcommittee on Interior and Environment and Related Agencies. On the other hand, it is probably a good thing beacuse on those occasions when our esteemed representative does speak, he shows, at the least, how little he comprehends the field, and at worst, how tricky he might be.

Even in the absence of public statements, it is not difficult to see where Mr Taylor's allegiance lies. In this light, what his positions represent boggles the mind. Mr Taylor's record shows that, not only does he line the pockets of industry with massive tax gifts, but he also works tirelessly to promote consumption, again to the benefit of industry, and thus keep his constituents over a barrel. As such, his positions are in direct contravention of our national security and global competitiveness along the way.

Scrutiny Holligans ran a story in early September which highlighted Mr Taylor's well known vote for The 2005 Energy Policy Act, which granted billions in tax breaks to major oil companies and his campaign contributions from this sector. But this is the tip of the iceberg, let us look his performance in just the 21st century.

2001 was banner year of damaging moves for WNC consumers and the nation by the man from Brevard. On HR-4, Taylor voted AGAINST, increases in CAFE standards and incentives for alternate fuel vehicles. While paying lip service over the years to energy independence, his vote here, instead of lessening consumption left us as a nation with mpg that is a full 15mpg behind our global competitors, and protects the future of big oil. With the USA using 40% of the world's gasoline, and 40% of our energy going to passenger vehicles alone, this vote is abominable and at complete odds with his public rhetoric which emphasizes consumer relief and freedom from imports.

As if this was not enough, he even tried that same year to increase consumption by sponsoring 01-HR-1694, a resolution to repeal 4.3 cents of the Fed Motor Fuel Tax. Can someone outline the logic for tax relief here, when even the CATO Institute recognizes that fuel prices are at inflation adjusted lows?

"If gas prices were as high today as they were in the late 1970s, we would now be paying about $6 a gallon for gas."

Just for good measure, Mr Taylor completed votes in 2001 against The Kyoto Protocol, and the protection of ANWR, HR 4690 and 4, respectively.

In 2003, Taylor supported HR-6, The Energy Omnibus Bill, which gave $14.4 billion to fossil fuels, and only 1/7th of that amount to alternate fuel vehicles. The bill also protected industry from the insidious use of MTBE, and promoted consolidation and mergers in electricity.

The GOP likes to point out that the bill also ordered the phase out of MTBE, (looks real green, right?). The fact is that the bill only eliminated the oxygenate requirement for RFG gasoline. Rather than require ethanol to replace MTBE, (clean and renewable), what the bill really did was to allow potentially worse components, which are not oxygenates, such as aromatics, (more fossil fuel derivatives, dirty and non - renewable). Energy independence and conservation, yeah, right.

Mr Taylor pretty much reprised this in 2004 by supporting The Energy Policy Act, which apportioned similar amounts of money to fossil fuels, at the expense of any alternatives. Leaving us in the present day, with his support of the 2005 Bushco energy bill which gave even more money to oil firms.

Our man from NC-11 is part of a complete GOP strategy, policy, or conspiracy, (take your pick), that undermines our nation's security and consumers for the sake of stimulating consumption and profits. It is either incredibly uninformed or incredibly dissembling to compile this kind of record while at the same time pledging price relief for consumers and freedom from oil imports.

Filed Under: Energy and Policy Cross Posted at: (what the heck), Blue NC And Daily Kos

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Fri, 06 Oct 2006 13:59:00 +0000

The Thought Police & Lying Liars: Friday Round Up

The Catholic Church: Halfway Back to Sanity
I was a lad of 12 or so, approximatley 1965, when I had my first significant run in with the thought police. In Catholic school I suppose it was inevitable that I would eventually face a situation where I was told that I must believe something that was patently wrong, unjust, or otherwise made no sense to me.

The subject was "limbo". For those unenlightened in the nuances of dogma and wisdom in the RCC, (Roman Catholic Church), limbo is the place where souls go who were never baptized. The place was invented in order to account for the following facts:
--Everyone is born with "original sin" on their souls. I think Adam, (more likely Eve), gave that to all of us.
--Original sin can only be removed by baptism.
--A soul with any sin cannot dwell in heaven.
--Therefore, anyone dying unbaptized, no matter how virtuous their life, can NEVER live in heaven.
--So, we invent limbo, and end the dilemma in terms of RCC dogma.

I could never buy this set of rules. No amount of discussion with nuns or priests could persuade me, and it seemed fundamnetally wrong. It was the beginning of the end for me and organized religion.

Happily, the RCC has recently undone a bit of this nonsense.

"This week a 30-strong Vatican international commission of theologians, which has been examining limbo, began its final deliberations. Vatican sources said it had concluded that all children who die do so in the expectation of �??the universal salvation of God�?? and the �??mediation of Christ�??, whether baptised or not."

Well, they have redeemed themselves in my eyes with respect to babies, but they still owe me a full explanantion of all those poor bushmen and other pagans who lead perfectly good lives and were never baptized, and are thus prohibited from heaven. And what about the millions of people who lived B.C. and were never baptized? Cheesh, get on with it already.

Halfway home to sanity, on that issue anyhow. Now if we could just get past that "one true religion" thing.

Freedom of Speech
From Smirking Chimp: Stand-up Comic censored for 'Bush-bashing'

Oh great.....sad, dismal, abhorable, abominable, a shame, grave, unnerving, infuriating, scary, detestable, but unsurprising and probably largely unnoticed.

Time-Warner apparently doesn't like Paul Mooney, formerly of Chapelle's Show, and some things he had to say about Bushco, Barbara the elder, and the twinnies.

Said Mooney:

"They wanted me out of there, the Republicans, the Time Warner people," he says. "They said I was Bush bashing, and it was hatred. I felt like I was in Iran or Cuba or somewhere."

Lying Liars: Rep Charles Taylor, R-NC-11
A local piece from WNC: From Scrutiny Hooligans Another New Taylor Ad: "His Bo-ah Was Ovah They-ah!"
The ad at Hooligans, shows Taylor surrounded by a group of veterans from the greatest generation, my father's generation, with Charlie basically telling them how much he loves them.

Saying Charles Taylor, (R-NC-11), supports veterans is like......well, fill in the blank. It should be obvious.

Here are Charlie's ratings on veterans affairs compiled by Project Vote Smart. Quite different than the ad would have us believe. Yet the myth that our Charles Taylor "is good for veterans" is strongly held here in the boonies of Madison County, NC. I talk to my neighbors, and I doubt there is any way to overcome that.

Not that information really matters a whole lot in terms of opinions in this country anymore, but I will close with this: Taylor's ratings from a full range of interest groups. Just another hard line, intolerant right winger who pretends to be otherwise.

Peace.

Filed Under: Politics, god, and god knows what else

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 12:46:00 +0000

Fossil Fuels: The Traders Are Lost- It's All Psycho From Here On

Apologies for sporadic posting since Monday, I had some serious PC issues. Today's Post:

I do not really want this blog to evolve into a day by day market call, I did enough of that in a previous life. The energy complex however is fairly well defined at the moment, and begs for comment.

What Drives Future Prices?
Over the years, I have come to divide the factors effecting the price of oil into three categories. "Fundamentals" are simply the law of supply and demand, how much do we have, what will we use, and where does that take our prices. "Technicals", includes the semi secretive, and in my opinion overrated practice of divining future market directions based upon past perfomrance, and chart formations. In technical analysis we hear such terms as, support, resistance, moving averages, relative strength index, trend lines, and so forth. "Psychologicals" is the last category I consider. Simply, this would be news, speculative or otherwise, influencing a market.

The fundamentals have been quite healthy over the past year, even in the aftermath of Katrina/Rita, supply and demand were not bullish. Yet, prices rose for most of 2006, and only in late July did they yield to the downside. Inspection of the charts below graphically demonstartes the paradox of bulging inventories and rising prices. (Charts Source EIA).
To my mind, the psychologicals have been the primary market force in 2006. Elements at work were largely fears of war, Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah/Israel, and potential supply disruptions. Rhetoric and psychology simply trumped the reality of supply and demand. The two have reconciled however, markets are quite soft, and fundamentals have reclaimed control. Or have they? And what of the future? There is a case for price strength on the floor of the exchange.

Traders Are Lost?
The chart below, from Tuesday's NYMEX close for November crude oil, (Source), is perhaps revealing. Gasoline and heating oil are exact mirrors of this state of affairs.

It will be recalled from this post, that I duscussed "open interest", the bar graph at the bottom of the chart. Open interest represents the number of contracts that are actually open for delivery, and its relation to prices can be very telling. To paraphrase myself:

1- Rising open interest + falling prices, (the scenario since late July 2006), means that new sellers are dominant, and the market is bearish.
2- Rising prices + rising open interest = new buying, the market is bullish.
3- Rising prices + falling open interest = "short covering" or "profit taking", i.e., sellers from higher market levels are closing their positions.
4- Falling prices + falling open interest = buyers from lower market levels are selling out their positions and taking profits.

Applying this knowledge in an examinination the last few days tells us this: Each time prices have risen, open interest has risen as well. Thus traders were apparently ready to go long. Yesterday, 10/3/06, a "significant" day if we listen to the MSM, prices fell to new lows, but, open interest fell also. This means the market moved, not from new selling, but that traders retreated from bearishness seen in the past few days. There is ecided resistance for continued selling. They are well..pondering, hesitating, even in the face of solidly bearish fundamentals, hence the word "lost" in the title of this post.

Bush Controls The Psychologicals
Short term oil news remains fundamentally soft. OPEC is starting to rumble a bit about low prices and over supply. Nigeria and Kuwait have publicly announced production cuts, while the Saudis have done so more quietly. The size of the cuts however totals only around 300K bbls/day. This is inconsequential to the healthy supply picture domestically, and when coupled with the fact that they have not called an emergency meeting, and the cartel's long history of cheating on production quotas, I do not see a drastic or rapid change in inventories.

I have argued, (convincingly I believe), that global energy markets are beyond the financial control of domestic firms and/or The White House. despite the fact that 42% of Americans believe this. If we accept the analysis that markets in 2006 have been psychologically driven, then perhaps this constitutes the viable mechanism of control for political purposes by Bushco.

The markets rose in the face of bulging inventories on the strength of war talk in DC. The bellicose tone abated, and prices fell. Markets are hesitatnt at present however to continue to sell into the rosy supply picture, and the forecast might best be summarized as Michael Klare did in an article that is getting A LOT of web play, and states in pertinent part:

"Once the election season is past, however, President Bush will have less incentive to muzzle his rhetoric on Iran and we may experience a sharp increase in Ahmadinejad-bashing."

That traders are waiting for something other than fundamentals seems clear at this point. Maybe they know something we don't about future foreign policy.

Filed Under: Energy & Policy

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Mon, 02 Oct 2006 14:09:00 +0000

Spinning The Foley Affair: Out of the Mouths of Babes

My intended post for today, stating that crude oil will have a difficult time testing new lows will be up later. I do not intend this blog to simply reiterate what all of the big boys are reporting, but some things just deserve comment. Specifially here, Foleygate and the resultant spin.

When spin becomes dismissive...
Tony Snow, "just some naughty emails" Raw Story..
This is a lot like the milestone of 2,500 US deaths in Iraq, which was "just a number". (From Think Progress).
Or Bush's latest, repeated twice I believe, "Iraq is just a comma". (From Think Progress)

When spin becomes falsehood and stupidly specualtive...
Gingrich, via Media Matters, "the actual notes were relatively innocuous, there was nothing sexual in those notes." ... "I think had they overly aggressively reacted to the initial round, they would also have been accused of gay bashing." ..." there was no proof, there was nothing that I know of in that initial round that would have led you to say in a normal circumstance that this is a predatory person."

Out of the mouths of babes.
Check out this kid in the video from America Blog. He states what the spin blatantly ignores, that someone as powerful as Foley was a hard person to brush off if one had any political aspirations. It is about power, and that my friends is the essence of "predatory", it is the essence of abuse and sexual harrasment. Out of the mouths of babes.

Surely, the values voters will not swallow this kind of trip from the GOP.

Filed Under: Politics General

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 17:50:00 +0000

Welcome Crooks and Liars Folks

I love C&L, especially since I don't have television, and thanks, big thanks to Mike for a mention in the Blog Round Up. A bit unexpected. My blog is nascent, but I hope worthy thus far.

Thanks Mike.

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 12:22:00 +0000

Bush: A Quick, Closer Look at His Language and Cognition

This topic has been done, perhaps most famously by Scarborough in mid-August 2006, but never with real analysis in my opinion. In most discussions of this nature on the Pres, it is too tempting to look at his "common" and entertaining slips of the tongue, ie., slips that any of us could make. These would include such memorabilia as "misunderestimated", or my current favorite, "I have an "ec-e-lectic" reading list. I have long since let go of the abominable, "nuc-u-lar". But what substance do these really reveal about the executive mind? Not much. (Scarborough video at C & L).

Okay, so Bushie does make mistakes more often than most of us, and some of them are inexcusably lazy, but to my mind, many are trite and almost understandable. However, centering a discussion of his intellect, an important question, on the obvious slips cheapens the dialogue. It is merely entertainment. In public speaking, I know I have a tendency, (many of us do?), to go into a kind of autopilot mode where such slips are, ummm, possible. Hopefully though, to a lesser extent. But there is deeper analysis to be had in his vocalizations.

Occasionally, the decider in chief utters sentences that offer a more meaningful window into the nature and depth of his cognition, and they are not pretty to this observer. Let me illustrate, and close this Saturday post up in short order with a couple of examples.

Two red flags of deficient cognition have remained in my memory, they are quite similar. First is,

"The reason I keep insisting that there was a relationship between Iraq and Saddam and al Qaeda, because there was a relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda."

And the inimitable,

"Tribal sovereignty means that, it�??s sovereign. If you a�??you�??re a - you have been given sovereignty, and you are viewed as�??a sovereign entity."

Can anyone say circular reasoning? When did that concept make it on the list of things we should not do, 6th grade? Earlier I suspect. How many of us recall this from elementary school? I would hope all of us.

The examples, and the possible light they shed on the depth of presidential cognition speak for themselves. That Bush would utilize such underdevloped reasoning could have many explanations. He is mentally lazy, he is a deer in the headlights and unable to think on his feet, he has a true cognitive deficit, or more. None of these are conclusions or qualities that any nation would want to make or to accept about its leader.

Summary: Rarely does the media address the question of Bush's cognition beyond the entertaining surface of the question. The fact that our president uses devices of reasoning that did not pass the muster in elementary school is a matter of deep concern and shame for me. If he were my student, we would take the time to try and raise his level of analysis to that of a more enlightened and adult kind of world. The fact that the media lets such tripe pass as national dialogue is many things. It is complicit, a free pass, and beyond my ability to comprehend.

Further Topical Reading:
The Lovenstein Institute: The Presidential IQ Report
Wiki: The Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis

Filed Under: Politics

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 14:09:00 +0000

Why I Do Not Believe Bushco Controls Oil Prices:
From an Otherwise Flaming Liberal

42% of Americans believe that Bushco controls oil and gasoline prices to electoral advantage. The idea has been gaining strength in recent weeks, particulalrly on the left I would guess. Witness, as your friendly card carrying, flaming liberal outlines why this is not a matter of likelihood, and quite possibly impossible. Don't get me wrong, it would be nice if this were so, but we cannot engage in cognitive dissonance on the matter anymore than the wingnuts can on their beliefs, and call ourselves rational.

We must first understand that crude and products, such as gasoline, are commodities traded publicly, on a global basis, and in staggering dollar values. As such, I would make a few assertions:
1) The sheer financial volume of global energy trades puts the idea of control beyond the ability of any Bushco consortium to actually dictate price.
2) The financial perils of doing so on behalf of The White House or anyone else are far too risky.
3) To be even more inflammatory, I would state that domestic petroleum companies have actually exercised some beneficence during the last 12 months in terms of prices.
4) Their profits for 3Q are not necessarily out of line.

Brazen stuff? Let's see.

Global Energy Volume is Too Big to be Controlled:
On any given day, crude oil and its products are traded publicly and openly on commodity exchanges. The two most significant are the New York Mercantile Exchange, (NYMEX), and London's International Petroleum exchange, (IPE). On 09/27/06, pick a day, any day, the total NYMEX dollar volume for JUST crude oil, unleaded gasoline, and heating oil was $11.225 billion. On the IPE, only looking at Brent Crude, the number was $40.493 billion, for a total of $51.718 billion.

This number, which ignores the remaining parts of the energy complex, commodities such as CBOT Ethanol, ( 10% component of a lot of US gasoline), IPE Gasoil, NYMEX Blendstocks, Natural Gas, or Propane, is, to this observer far too large by itself for control. Also excluded is the dollar volume of products traded on so called "cash" or "spot markets", which comprises crude and products for immediate, as opposed to future NYMEX delivery. These are the actual physical transactions, and they take place in harbors, pipelines, and tanks throughout the globe.

The number $51.718 billion is therefore just a part of daily global energy transactions.

Let us compare that number with some easily available information on the supposed entities that are helping Bushco. The 3rd quarter profits of domestic oil companies, which are wildly out of line with those of the past 15 years, are useful to see. Exxon-Mobil, Shell, Chevron-Texaco, BP, and Conoco-Phillips, collectively, posted 3Q profits of $34.6 billion, on revenue of $379.5 billion. That works out to revenue of roughly $42 billion/day.

By this partial comparison, these firms, even trading on margin in the futures markets, would have to direct fantatsic portions of their daily revenue, or profits, which in 3Q were about $0.384 billion/day, into global markets in order to influence prices. The prospect for active control of prices for political ends dies at this point for this observer.

NYMEX Gasoline Prices Bearish Since July 30: Why?
NYMEX gasoline has fallen precipitously and openly since the end of July 2006, and this has happened on the strength of new sellers in the market. (Source for Chart). How do we know this?

In the chart below, the bar graph at the bottom signifies "open interest". Open interest is the number of contracts in a commdoity that are currently open for actual delivery. Thus, when open interest rises, at the same time that prices fall, then new sellers are dominant, and the market is bearish. Other open interest permutations are as follows:
1) Rising prices, rising open interest = new buying, the market is bullish.
2) Rising prices with falling open interest = "short covering" or "profit taking", i.e., sellers from higher market levels are covering their positions.
3) Falling prices, with falling open interest = buyers at lower market levels are selling out their positions and taking profits.
Let us apply this to the chart below.

Notice, since late July, that open interest has generally risen while prices fell indicating new selling. On those small occasions when prices rose, that open interest fell, meaning profits were taken as positions were closed out. Why however did this happen?

The answer to this lies in our 6th grade experience, the law of supply and demand. I will let the chart speak for itself as to rising domestic inventories.

Source for Chart at the right: EIA: "This Week in Petroleum".
Inventories are far beyond normal for this time of year, clearly prices would have to fall. The situation is no more complicated that that.

A Word About Oil Company Profits
Yeah, they're big for the past 12 months, but for any real value judgement on this, I would be inclined to examine these in context. Search EIA for historical profits, (I have lost the link), and we will find that ROI in the refining industry is wildly unpredictable over time. In the past 15 years, petroleum refiners have averaged around 5% ROI. In some recent years 2% losses have been posted, as late as the beginning years of the 21st century.

In my opinion, in an essentially market based system, we would need to look at average ROI for typical S&P companies, which is around 13%. By contrast, ROI in the pharmaceuticals industry regularly approaches 20%. This is where our liberal outrage should be directed. Nevertheless, the category of �??too much�?? profit, how to measure such a concept, and indeed if such a concept is even valid in terms of oil becomes a very clouded area.

Final Point:
I wish EIA would update this chart, it is perhaps the best argument against allegations of price gouging I have ever seen. Bear in mind that the blue represents the US "spot" price, a measure of gasoline costs for immediate delivery. The red represents average US retail price. The two numbers have been adjusted for motor fuels tax and therefore proper comparison.

The number of occasions where retail prices are actually below the tax adjusted spot price surprised even me. This would mean, at least, that by this measure, retail prices were negative to the replacement cost that existed during those times. Interesting.

Food For Thought
1) Can anyone actually control a publicly traded global entity of such vast proportions?

2) Are oil companies really as predatory as we believe?

3) Do oil profits of the past 12 months deserve to be considered in light of less than average ROI over the last one and a half decades?

Previous Post of Note: The Next Time You Think Gas Prices Are High.

Filed Under: Energy and Policy Archives

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Wed, 27 Sep 2006 17:27:00 +0000

Iraq: The Biggest Lie They Told
Or,
Why Princeton Should Ask Rumsfeld to Return His Degree

Flash: Princeton examines Rumsfeld's analysis and conduct of the Iraq War, and asks for the return of his degree in "Politics". Oh would that it were true, it certainly should be true.

The Secretary of Defense, and for that matter the whole "MBA Admisitration", have failed to show in the case of Iraq, that they absorbed even the most elementary concepts of political theory in college. In their statements and rhetoric that the road to democracy would be a cakewalk, they disregarded what even a state university dunce such as myself, knew long ago, that democracy takes decades to get going.

By not being honest about the basic difficulties, by ignoring what he learned at the vaunted Priceton, Rummy told what I consider to be be the biggest lie of the entire ordeal. He told us that it would be easy. "I doubt six months". (Rumsfeld's famous pre-war prediction from USA Today, 04/01/03).

In light of this, It's So Obvious that Rummy must have failed the mid term and final, and should immediately return his sheepskin. In fact, the lie strikes me as one of the more under-analyzed aspects of the war to date. Let us examine.

Political theorists are a cross between historians and political scientists. In brief, one of their main concerns is to look at the various forms of government that arise in the human condition, and to assess why certain forms of polity persist under certain conditions. These would include such systems as monarchy, theocracy, democracy, or dictatorship to name just a few.

The basic idea in this regard is to examine the various factors of people, place, and time, among others, that seem to particularly favor the establishment and maintenance of one form of political system over another. What factors contribute to the creation of a stable democracy? Why do some countries, regions, or conditions seem prone to dictatorship, or strong arm rule?

Basic political theory since Alexis de Tocqueville in his landmark1831 tome ,Democracy in America have held that of all the different forms of government that might arise, democracy is among the most difficult to establish, let alone flourish and survive. Democracy is far from simple. Its growth may even include elements of luck and geography that are specific to the United States.

In brief, Political Theory 101 teaches us that special conditions promote and foster democracy as Americans conceive of it. The short list of key indexes would include the following:

1) A population with a long tradition, respect for, and experience with the notions of free speech and a vigorous and inquiring press.
2) A population that is informed, and is itself comfortable with vigorous questioning.
3) Population respect and has experience with an independent judiciary, the rule of law, and the separation of powers.
4) A national consciousness that includes a devotion and tradition with the ideas of self determination in the political sense.
5) A tradition of self reliance in the economic and personal sense.
6) Acceptance of the supremacy of the federal government and the manner in which power is shared with the states or regional authorities.
7) Experience and understanding of freedom, equality, and the rights of humankind.
8) Stable economy and matters of infrastructure, abundant and varied resources.
9) Perhaps most importantly, that the survival and safety needs of the population are well established.

Clearly, in the case of the United States, and other countries with various forms of democracy about the globe, this partial list of factors is quite evident. Can any of these items be more glaringly absent from the Iraqi experience both past and present? Did Rummy know this? Princeton thinks he did.

The job of establishing that beacon of democracy in the mideast is therefore in need of many more building blocks and much more time and money than anyone in Washington or on the airwaves ever revealed to us. It took the US decades to actually arrive at some of the aforementioned parameters. Why were we not informed of this as a matter of course?

Not only does Iraq want for nearly every major factor to bring democracy into existence, but the actions of the present administration have magnified and in some instances created circumstances that are diametrically opposed to this goal. Conditions in Iraq, economic, political, and otherwise actually represent a wonderful mixture for the rise of regional dictatorship and strong arm rule. Can anyone say "civil war"? This is not only a supreme irony, but represents Rummy's failure to have earned his degree.

Basic political theory has outlined the conditions favoring the rise of dictators and strong man rule. Some of the most vivid examples of this in recent history can be found in post WW I Europe with the rise of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. The history of Latin America and Africa are also rife with examples. (Latin America in particular shares with Iraq, the problems associated with what has been called "monoculture", i.e., the reliance on a single resource for revenue, but that is another whole discussion). The short list of factors favoring the rise of strong man rule and regional dictatorships would include such things as:

1) Unstable economic conditions including rampant unemployment, and strong inflation threatening the basic security of the population in terms of survival.
2) Breakdown in the rule of law further lessening the safety of the people.
3) Unstable infrastructure with respect to utilities, water, electricity and the availability of food and life services.
4) Absence of experience with democratic support intsitutions such as a free press, an independent judiciary, or the separation of powers.
5) The rise of regional and ethnic factions pronouncing their own self interest or hearkening back to some more stable perceived golden era in the past.
6) A collective blow to the national ego.

When a population is confronted with these types of conditions, theory holds that the people will yearn for the basic immediacy and stability that can be offered through some form of strong man rule. US policy under Rummy and Bush has actually enhanced and multiplied each and every one of these tendencies. Can anyone say otherwise?

The ideas outlined above are simple and completely elementary in the thinking that embodies political theory. Any college student would be exposed to these notions by the time they reach the second sememster of world history.

Yet, the monumental task of establishing democracy, and the healthy environment for dictatorship and civil war created by US military presence and actions simply cry out to be heard. The lies of omission, and the supreme irony that American actions in Iraq have actually postponed our alleged objective should not be lost on even the most casual observer.

They never told us that it would be so hard, and it is a matter of complete failure that they did not. I call upon Princeton University to demand that Donald Rumsfeld return his degree immediately, and be required to repeat US History 101, and World History 102.

Filed Under: Politics

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Tue, 26 Sep 2006 16:15:00 +0000

September 26, 1960

The First Kennedy - Nixon Debate

The topic was domestic policy for this, the first televised Presidential debate in US history. The background is fairly well known, but bears repeating on this 46th anniversary. The first debate was held in Chicago and garnered more than 70 million viewers, the largest tv political audience in history to that time. The great contrast in appearence, and behavior, if not in substance, between the two candidates is now the stuff of legend.

It is well known I suppose that, Nixon, who had recently been ill, refused makeup, (something with which I can oddly identify). He therefore appeared pale, sweaty, and with his famous 5 o'clock shadow quite prominent. This presented quite a contrast to the tanned and poised JFK, who confidently sat with his legs crossed, looked directly into the camera, and seemed to be personally addressing the viewers.

The power of television and the visual medium is underscored by the oft mentioned fact that for voters who heard the broadcast on radio, Nixon was seen as the winner. The opposite of course was true for television audiences, who favored JFK. These anecdotes reveal how primitive the process was at the time, (in the case of Nixon's handlers at any rate), and foretold of things to come in terms of image makers emerging as a requisite part of campaign machinery. As a nation, we would never look back, image and presentation would be king from here on out. Ironically, it would seem that this development has left us with less rather than more substance in our electoral process. Television is very much the history of promises unfulfilled.

Stream the video here, via The Internet Archive. Part 2: Here.

Related Links: TV/Politics:
Transcript: First Kennedy-Nixon Debate: Moderated by Howard K Smith. If you cannot stream the Internet Archive of the debate, this document shows the similarity of the two platforms. The differences I suppose are the usual differences between Republicans and Democrats that persist to this day: Both advocated a betterment of the nation domestically, Nixon however favored such goals through privatisation and smaller government.

The Living Room Candidate: Interesting repository of adverytisement and video from elections since 1952.

Filed Under: News and Mass Media Archive

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Sun, 24 Sep 2006 15:09:00 +0000

Van Morrison:

Contractual Obligation Album

This news is apparently about a year old, but worthy of note in this space. Van Morrison, by this point in his career, love him or not, should objectively be considered as an important composer. The quality and volume of his output ranks him among the greats of the last 50 years in my view.

What marks a great composer in my reckoning? I suppose my main criteria would be the degree to which a writer's songs have entered the national consciousness and remained there. Can we look back on a body of work and count some requisite number of musical anthems, icons, or in the lexicon of the jazz musician, "standards"? The answer in Van's case is a resounding yes to this observer.

The subject of this little missive however is a set of compositions Van recorded in 1967, and certainly do not rank among his best. So the story goes, in order to fulfill his contractual obligation to his original solo label, Bang Records, Van owed them one more album. He must have been upset at the proposition, as an online review of the recordings will show. According to this source Van sat down and, "cranked out 31 songs on the spot, on topics ranging from ringworm to wanting a danish, to hating his record label and a guy named George". The titles and most of the recordings will attest to the "on the spot" assertion, but the session is not totally devoid of musical ideas, just mostly so. Visit the above link to stream any or all of them.

Bang Records, like so many ultimately unsuccessful labels in those days, (Think, "Vee Jay", the label that lost The Beatles), did have its share of big hits. These included, "Twist and Shout", "Under The Boardwalk", "Hang On Sloopy," "Brown Eyed Girl", and "Piece Of My Heart". Not a bad start, they just didn't make it to the finish line.

Here is a nice Van Morrison You Tube from 1970. The tune is "Come Runnin' To Me". Embedding disabled by request.

Or, modern Van, showing that he still knows how to perform and to surround himself with good sidemen. The tune is "Days Like This".
Enjoy.

Filed Under: Music and Film

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Sat, 23 Sep 2006 14:10:00 +0000

Pajamas, Golf Balls and Perfume:
Saturday Shopping for Christian Merchandise

So we all go around our home turf and are confronted at convenience stores and what not with free newspaper type publications. Here in the bible belt these range from your local news and arts weekly and real estate promos to a good number of christian themed offerings. I do peruse these from time to time just to see what kinds of concerns might be occupying the local fundy movement. One of these periodicals has a recurring quarter page advertisement for Armor of God Pajamas, pictured, and a steal at only $49.95

Your money will get you, straight from Ephesians Ch 6, V 10-18, the "belt of truth", "breastplate of righteousness", "shield of faith", and "helmet of salvation". Ephesians completes the ensemble with the "sword of the spirit", but that did not seem to make it into the 21st century version. Apparently, the marketing schtick can be summed up as follows: The whole Armor of God Pajama set will help your children to depend on God to protect them from their fears, doubts, and uncertainties at night so their sleep can be restful and peaceful. No different than Popeye or Barbie pajamas I suppose, but curious to this observer.

I had been marginally exposed to the Chrsitian economy beforehand, but this led me to click around Christian merchandising, with some interesting results.

Next up Virtous Woman, a Christian perfume. Apparently it must be enticing, but not overly so. It comes packaged with the following message: "Who can find a virtuous woman? For her worth is far above rubies. Proverbs 31: 10-31", and is intended as a tool for evangelism. To wit:

"It should be enticing enough to provoke questions: 'What's that you're wearing?' " Hobbs said. "Then you take that opportunity to speak of your faith. They've opened the door, and now they're going to get it."

From the company's website:

"After carefully researching the industry, NHIM became aware that the majority of women fragrance manufacturers do not capture the essence of who women are, instead they project images of what they want women to be. Images of sexuality or sensuality dominate the industry�??s focus.

VW is designed to cater to the needs of women who are interested in incorporating a passion for sharing their faith with a beauty product that makes them feel and smell really good."

I really like the "carefully researching the industry" part. How long does one suppose it took them to discern that about the women's fragrance market? I do not doubt the intentions of most of the products I found, but to my mind, this one is more of a sham.

Moving on to Gospel Golf Balls: These can be purchased with any one of four different quotes,John 14:6, Philippians 4:13, John 3:16 and Psalm 31:4. Said to be: "a unique witness opportunity on the green, and a terrific gift for the Christian golfer!". For the poor Christian golfer, the idea would be more along the lines of "Lose a Golf Ball, Share the Gospel". For the winters, there is always the Golf Water Globe Game, again complete with a bible inscribed ball.

Scripture Candy offers a wide variety of sweets such as fish shaped mints with 78 selected Bible verses, as well as sugar free Scripture Mints, with 24 selected verses in fish shapes. From Christian Outdoorsman comes a variety of gifts, including a camouflage bible cover. I clicked with anticipation on the machetes, but was disappointed to find these were just regular implements without divine references. I was unable to locate the "Follow the Son" flip flops which apparently have soles, (or is it souls?), which leave the word "Jesus" where one walks.

Interesting little web journey for a Saturday. A host of other items can be seen at Ship of Fools. Larger, more academic questions on Christian merchandising will be addressed in a later post.

Filed in the: God Knows What Else Archive

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Fri, 22 Sep 2006 15:09:00 +0000

The Next Time You Think Gasoline Prices Are High:

Try This On

US citizens love to complain about "high" gas prices. Perhaps ignorance really is bliss.

Consider the following, and ask ourselves what right we have to our kind of energy extravagance and at the same time to hold ill founded opinions that we are somehow victims. Our petroleum consumption is a disgrace in the excess, and one that we have ignored for too long. As a nation, we feel wronged when we have no one but ourselves to blame. We do not even come close to a reasonable rate of consumption relative to our international peers, and thus jeopardize our competeitive economic position, and national security along the way. It's so obvious.

NOTE: Some of this information is so widely available, and so firmly in my brain, that I will forgo finding links/citations except for some of the more obscure facts.

-- The US is 4.6% of the world's population.
-- The US uses 40% of the world's gasoline.
-- The US uses gasoline at rates that are 30% less efficient than EU, China or Japan, where new vehicles sold average 39 mpg, vs. 24 mpg in the land of the free.
- - US mpg has actually declined over the last 25 yrs, (From 26 mpg to 24 mpg), under conservative rubric of getting government off the backs of business, or the equally naieve faith in the genius of an "invisible hand" that will guide markets to the best solutions. Hint: Adam Smith wrote that in 1776 if memory serves.
- - The US consumes gasoline at prices that are lower than roughly100 other nations on earth. Here is a small sampling. Here is the big list.
-- Americans use twice as much petroleum per capita than the Japanese, to cite but one example.
-- The US still has not breached the all time inflation adjusted high for gasoline which was $3.15/gal in 1980.
-- In fact, the ratio of US gasoline prices today to median household income is a whopping 50% less than it was in 1980. Chart Here. Article Here. Data from the usual collection of "dot gov" agencies.
-- In fact, the ratio of gasoline expenditures to median household income is only about 20% of what it was in 1980.
-- The US uses more than 25% of world crude production, approximately 22 million bbls/day, while the earth produces roughly 84 million bbls/day.
-- The "rise" in US prices is all the fault of China or India, who use only about 8.8 million bbls/day combined.

My Opinion:
It takes a certain combination of arrogance, ignorance, unawareness, and cognitive dissonance for Americans to complain about "high" gasoline prices. Prices are not high and as the "greatest nation on earth" we should rise above that and get with the program. We need to become consumers at a rate that is in line with the rest of the planet. We are only hurting ourselves in the long run, economically, politically, socially, and in terms of long term security.

I think we learned the law of supply and demand in 6th grade, did we not?

Filed Under: Energy & Policy

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 21:55:00 +0000

MUSIC: From Dinah Washington to Britney:
Technology and the Decline of Artistic Integrity

Dinah Wasington for many years has been one of my favorite female vocalists. (Nice 3 min You Tube Vid at the end of this article.) She left us, all too early, at the age of 39, (not 42 as sometimes stated), in 1963. Despite her artistic and commercial successes Dinah has lived in the shadows of other, bigger legends such as Ella, (We only need her first name to identify her), Sara Vaughn, or Billie Holiday.

True vocalists share an array of traits; purity of tone, range, signature phrasing, the ability to comfortably and convincingly convey the emotional content of a wide variety of compositions. This is perhaps called, the capacity to "intepret" a diverse set of material.

True vocalists are able to imprint a song with their own particular style, no matter how many times in the past it may have been recorded, their version of the song belongs to them. Take the Kurt Weil composition Mack the Knife as but one of the thousands of examples available. Over the decades, this tune has belonged to Ella, Frank Sinatra, or Bobby Darin to name only three. Each singer put such a unique personal stamp on their performance that each recording can be said to be definitive, and bears the mark of greatness through the ability to make the song their own.

Dinah shared each and every one of these elements with other true vocalists. Listen if you can to her top ten recording of the old torch song, What a Difference a Day Made, along with the raucous and funny, Judge, I Say Judge, Give Me the Electric Chair. ( See link for a brief biography/discography). To listen to these two tunes is a mere 6 minute foray into what Dinah was, yet dramatically displays the diversity and depth that she brought to the microphone; pure tones, unique phrasing, diverse emotion, and individuality were hers.

As technology grows however, we encounter all manner of things that it can do, not only "for "music, but also "to" music. New issues of artistic integrity and music criticism arise and it becomes necessary, along the waves of digital change, to reemphasize one aspect of greatness that was at one time a sine qua non.

Astonishingly, this would be the notion that the live performance or recording we are hearing is what the musicians and singers actually did. As time goes on, the music that is being offered to us, whether recorded or live, is simply no longer the result of human beings "performing", but is the result of software and digital processors that literally change the notes of voices and instruments by raising or lowering off key pitches to harmonic correctness within milliseconds.

Thus, technology has made it possible hide what were once called "mistakes", whether stemming from a lack of preparation, talent or both. In short, it has become unnecessary to have vocal or instrumental proficiency equal to the days of old. It is equally unnecessary to strive for perfection. The artist no longer needs the compulsion to muster the energy, effort, discipline, and most importantly the integrity that near perfection used to require. Digital wizardry will cover for any shortcomings they may have. This is grave and unnerving for me.

Current technology has evolved devices that are currently called autotuners. These gadgets have the ability to alter tones, that are off key, for both singers and musicians, into tones that are perfectly in key. This can be done in real time, even during a live performance. For so called artists who would choose to use such devices, the "music" we hear is not the result of what they are doing, but rather is a processed product that has been reformulated by a machine and software. I cannot call this music or artistry. It is disrespectful to other artists and dishonest to the audience. It is cheating, plain and simple.

The reach of digital technology however, is not restricted only to the tones of instruments and voices, but to one of the most basic aspects of western music and musicians, and that is rhythm. It is possible, via a process that at least one manufacturer calls nudging, to take a performance, and to literally move an offending beat of the drums, the chords of a guitar, or anything else for that matter, into a perfect gigital unison. What we hear is right on the beat, thus improving what the musicians themselves are doing on yet another level of shame.

Try this exercise to understand not only the power of autotuners, but the effort and dedication required by Dinah and those like her, to achieve harmonic consonance. Think of the song "Over The Rainbow" by Harold Arlen from "The Wizard of Oz". Now try to sing the first verse. Pay attention to how most of us will slide up, waver, or not really make it cleanly to the larger intervals in that verse, e.g., "some-- where-- over the rain--bow". An autotuner will cover up any of those sour pitches, no matter how small, even within the same note, and so quickly that the human ear will not detect. The power of these devices to cover inadequacies, lack of preparation and diligence is evident.

If nothing else, the process of art is the process of putting oneself "out there" on a risky and personal level. It is as though to say, "Here is what I do, this is what I think is good, this is what is inside of me." It takes courage for an artist to do this, no matter what the medium. Prior to finding the courage, it takes lots of time, practice, discipline, and dedication. Using digital correction is unpure. It is surely NOT, the artist, naked in front of an audience and taking the big chance to say, "this is what is inside of me." It shortcuts and cheapens the process of art.

There has been a loss of purity in live music for many years now. Dinah or Ella could bring an audience to deep and quiet tears with nothing but their voices and a pianist, truly putting themselves "out there". Increasingly, modern artists seem to not only need light shows, pyrotechnics, dancers, taped accompaniment of layered voicings, (How else do you think Britney gets to sing harmony in 4 parts at the same time live?). Yes, even without autotuners, the live performance has become less pure. We have lost sight as a society about what music really is. Our children do not know the beauty in unadorned music.

Abbey Lincoln, ( Nice NPR Resource Here), tells a story about appearing live with Ella Fitzgerald, I would imagine fairly late in Ella's career. Apparently, it was normal for Ella to walk around back stage, before a performance, worrying and hoping that she would sing in a way that the audience would enjoy. The First Lady of Song never disappointed, and never used the "gift" of digital perfect pitch. She, like Dinah Washington, and many others managed to move audiences and achieve greatness through practice and detrmination. They did it on their own.

Shame on the so called artists who use such devices. Shame on promoters and record companies who deliberately attempt to hide the use of such technology from us. Being an artist means having talent, and having talent means hard work and practice. It does not mean having a good autotuner.

Praise Dinah !
The Queen of The Blues

Or You Tube It Here

A List of Digital Shame
Cher, N'Sync, Shania Twain,
Britney Spears, Reba MacIntyre, Sum 41,
Good Charlotte, Mariah Carey,
95% of music from Nashville, (Gee, what a surprise)

Filed Under: Music & Film

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 21:09:00 +0000

Anthropological, Psychosocial, & Historical Musings:
Yeah, Former Social Scientist Also

Iraq: The Biggest Lie They Told, Or, Why Princeton Should Demand That Donald Rumsfeld Return His Degree: Political theory 101 teaches us that establishing democracy takes decades, and special circumstances. This article looks at the basic premeises that support democracy vs. dictaorships and regionalism. Rummy should have known this, and should return his sheepskin. He lied when he told us, "I doubt six weeks", and any community college kid knows better than that.

Extraterrestrial Anthropology: Joey Ratz, The Latin Mass, and Organized Religion in General
The Retrun to the Latin mass, and a pseudo antropological analysis of organized religion in general. Caution: Possible offensive rhetoric, proceed with an open mind.

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 20:51:00 +0000

Cool Internet Things
Links and What Not

WFMU's Beware of the Blog: A boing-boingish kind of place, but with an emphasis on music and media. Curiosos and memorablilia, with a smattering of science and religion. WFMU is an independent station in Jersey City, NJ. I suspect I would not like the station, but the blog is great. WFMU Home Page.

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:43:00 +0000

News & Mass Media Archive:
For Those Times When Murrow Rolls Over In His Grave

September 26, 1960: Today is the 46th anniversary of the first Kennedy-Nixon Debate. Nothing really earth shattering in this post analytically speaking, but with links to video, transcript, and other video repositories of Presidential politics.

noreply@blogger.com (Black Bear Realty) — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 18:30:00 +0000

God and God Knows What Else Archive:
Beacuse I Never Know What Will Cause Me To Rant Or Ponder

Pajamas and Golf Balls: A short foray into some odd and interesting Christian merchandise.

The Thought Police & Lying Liars: Friday Round Up
The Catholic Church, censorship of Paul Mooney, and Rep. Charles Taylor, R-NC-11.

Extraterrestrial Anthropology: Joey Ratz, The Latin Mass, and Organized Religion in General
The Retrun to the Latin mass, and a pseudo antropological analysis of organized religion in general. Caution: Possible offensive rhetoric, proceed with an open mind.