Unfortunately, I don’t think they found what they were looking for, but that does sound like a fun challenge.

Here is the simplest definition I can come up with:

Business Intelligence – knowing when numbers will help you make better choices.

I think there are some examples that a second grader can understand too…

When buying valentines cards for your class, it is important to know how many kids are in your class. If you don’t know that number, you might buy too many (and waste money) or buy too few (and fail to have enough cards).  It sounds simple right? You have to be careful to really understand the numbers. A second grade math quiz might have a question like: “If there are 25 students in your class, and you have 3 teachers, how many valentine cards would you need to buy in order to give a card to every one of your classmates and teachers?”

At least some of you answered 28 (maybe most of you).  That is wrong. You only need 27 since you don’t need to buy yourself a valentines card and technically you aren’t your own classmate.

So business intelligence is knowing that a number will help you know how many valentines cards to buy, and how to figure out what that number is.  The number of classmates (students in class – 1) plus teachers (3) is the best kind of business intelligence. We call it “actionable information” because you can take action based on the number.

Another big topic in business intelligence are “key performance indicators” or KPIs.

A KPI is a number that tells you how close you are towards making your goal. A second grade example could be saving up allowance in order to buy a new scooter before Summer is over.  The amount of money in the piggy bank each day would be a KPI. Is it going up or going down? How close are you to your goal?  Will you you be able to buy your scooter by the end of the Summer? Can you afford the scooter now?

Unfortunately, business intelligence is not always easy. Take for example the schoolyard practice of trading toys.  A year or two ago my kids were huge fans of a toy called Bakugan.  Bakugan are pieces that can be used to play a game based on each piece’s score and their type.  While that might appear to be a number that could be used to make a decision, the real value of a Bakugan piece is based on it’s rarity.  Basically, if it is the only piece like that in the school, it is valuable.

It would be awesome to be able to look up the rarity of a particular piece (and that may actually exist on the internet), but it is easy enough to just gain a feel for rarity through experience. You might make some bad trades, but eventually you will get it.  However, if you are the kid that uses the internet to look up the rarity of a piece you might be the best trader on the schoolyard.

As long as you have that information handy when it is time to make the decision.

And that is business intelligence for a second grader.

If you have a small business in the Nashville area and want to figure out your KPIs or actionable information, give me a call

I expected they would try. I have watched for the past six months as they scoured the internet for information about me, my family, my businesses, etc. I could have stopped them, but instead I chose to watch them (You can’t internet-stalk an analytics geek without having your every move captured in a spreadsheet). They dug deep through jaxn.org looking for anything that they might be able to twist into a negative. Since 2001, I have posted over 2,500 posts, so there must be something for them to use, right?

After searching through the archives of this site every week for the past six months, they couldn’t find much. What they told the court is that I suffer from depression, I don’t care if my kids use foul language, and that I sometimes feel like I have left a trail of destruction in my life. These tidbits came from posts “You May Not Have Known” and “25 Things About Me“. These are also posts where I express gratitude for being able to live the America Dream, and where I talk about founding and organizing a community-service event that has persisted in Nashville for over 10 years.

I represent myself well on the internet. I live a very public online life and it is a shame to be targeted in light of my transparency. I am generally positive and supportive of others, so it stings to have my character called into question in this way.

I will admit that It takes restraint to not retaliate. This site is a fairly loud megaphone and has a wide reach, particularly in Google. I make myself easy to find, and can also make what I say about others easy to find.

But that is not who I am. That is not how I behave.

Over the past 12 months, and in large part due to this litigation process, I have withdrawn and been hesitant to put myself out there as I have for years. I locked down my Facebook account and changed my privacy settings on Twitter. Those mediums are also a pretty fair representation of myself and I am proud of who I am. Yes, I have faults, but it is a sign of maturity and self-awareness to be able to understand what those faults are. It could be that the greatest fault any man could have is to believe that he has no faults.

I am no longer willing to compromise my belief in transparency in order to prevent others from attacking me. Yes, that comes with a certain risk to myself, and to others. But I’m confident about my character and actions. I continuously strive to grow and improve.

It is with growth and improvement in mind that I say, here I am, I am open. I have nothing to hide.

In the previous version of this battle, Apple had it’s clock cleaned by Microsoft – at least in terms of market share. The similarities are stark. Android promises a lower cost to consumers and a wider array of hardware choices, just like Microsoft provided with Windows on generic PCs.  Apple is maintaing the same playbook of having a unified hardware / operating system environment that allows them greater control over the user experience. “Better user experience” is too nuanced of an argument when the competition is touting the importance of hardware features that Apple does not offer.

Does the user care that all icons have light reflections from the same angle? Or are they more likely to base their decision on the phone with “must have” features like a 47 megapixel camera, integrated printer, or biometric security?

This is why many people are predicting that Android will beat Apple in terms of market share.  It is inevitable as far as I can tell. We are already starting to see Android phones be given away free with a 2 year contract. I am certain that a majority of consumers would choose “free” over UI consistency.

However, the people who think Apple is playing from the same playbook this time around are ignoring a key element.

Software.

In the 1990s Microsoft did a great job of attracting software developers to their platform.  Before long almost everyone felt that they needed to choose windows because there was important software that they needed which was only available on Windows. The important software may have been Lotus Notes, or a special Dos database interface, or even games. This gave rise to the dominance of Microsoft Office as a de facto standard and a positive feedback look of dependance was created.

Apple took notes and quickly attracted almost every software developer with an interest in the mobile platform. When you combine Apple’s focus on user interface consistency with third party developers, a power struggle is inevitable. This has been a very public power struggle and has focused on Apple’s “gate keeper” position over the App Store.

Android has taken a different stance – anyone can publish an Android app. There is no real approval process. There is not a 1995 parallel for this dichotomy, and that is why this time might be different.

I am sure that we will see more Android phones in the market than iPhones soon.  It won’t be all that long before there are twice as many Android phones as iPhones. If we don’t see some meaningful competition from HP’s WebOS or Microsoft’s Windows 7 Mobile, I could even see Android hitting 80 – 90% of market share in a similar way to the Mac / PC battle.

Unfortunately, there is another parallel.

The big news today is that millions of people have downloaded an Android wallpaper app that steals personal information and sends it to China. The big news yesterday is that the guy behind the Mariposa botnet was arrested.

Note: for those that don’t know, a botnet is a bunch of computers that have been infected with a virus and will take commands from the botnet operator. They are used to send out spam, launch cyber accounts, traffic illicit content, commit fraud, etc.

Are we going to start seeing botnets in people’s pockets?  The defense for why Windows has more viruses than other operating systems like OSX or Linux has always been that Windows has more market share and thus is a more attractive target. Well, right now the iPhone has way more market share than Android, but we don’t see this kind of thing in the App Store.

So just as the desktop battle was waged with the availability of quality applications, the same will hold true for the mobile market.

Android will be cheaper. Android will have more choice for hardware. There will be high-end Android hardware that is on par with iPhones. The question is, will developers target Android or have they already chosen sides.

In order for Android to pass iPhone, there are going to have to be more high quality apps, and fewer junk apps like wallpapers that steal your info.

What is Flipboard and why is it so cool?

It is being billed as a “social magazine”. It is “The stuff you care about, all in one place.”

Basically it is a simplified reading interface for links and pictures posted to twitter and facebook.  There are some “channels”, but it looks to me like these are actually coming from twitter accounts (like the HackerNews channel is from one of the HackerNews twitter feeds). So that is what it is, but why is it cool?

Not many people know.

The problem is that in order to get personalized content, it has to run through their servers. Well, that isn’t a problem per se, but their servers are overloaded, so the end result is a very generic experience and a lot of “hope” and “potential” for how it might work once it works right.

I get the concept. I love the concept. I have even been working on something similar for a while (though I take a different approach). So, at least as far as my app (Purple Lynx) and Flipboard are similar, I understand why it is cool. I have experienced it.

When friends post a link to twitter or facebook, they are saying that it is interesting. Theoretically, you are likely to be interested in similar things to your friends. It is part of the 3-D Social Networking stuff I have been talking about for years.

To do it well takes a lot of processing. That is why Flipboard is having server issues from day 1. It doesn’t surprise me at all. We experienced something similar with gpsAssassin. The root of the issue is that there is no way to do meaningful testing in the App Store. It is all or nothing and it is bad for developers and bad for customers.

Flipboard launches a product that skyrockets to the #1 free application spot and users see this when they try to use it:

You know how that should read?

Thanks for downloading Flipboard for iPad. Apple’s restrictive controls over developers prevented us from being able to do a meaningful private beta of our service. We would have built an invitation system into our app, but we were worried that Apple would have rejected it for not being useful upon installation. Now we are scrambling to catch the bugs that we would have caught prior to being in the #1 free spot, had Apple allowed it. We are really sorry.

- The Flipboard Team

Of course, they can’t say that.

The thing is, meaningful advances in software require some trial and error. Flipboard is probably awesome because they are watching your social network 24/7 watching for links so that you don’t miss anything. This creates a significant server-side requirement that most twitter / facebook apps for iOS don’t have. The amount of resources needed is somewhat hard to predict, and the bottlenecks are even harder.

Unfortunately, Apple only lets you test on 100 devices. No more. Ever.  They also make the process of distributing beta apps outside of the store a pain. Their restrictions are in place because they want to prevent non-App Store distribution. That is understandable, but there has to be a middle ground.  There needs to be a good way to beta test software before you release it to the masses. The more complex the software, the larger the beta needs to be.

Sure, there are some ways to try and limit growth so that you can test things out, but those all carry risks. There is no “beta” flag in the app store; once you are in there you are subject to reviews. Not just app store reviews, blog reviews, magazine reviews, etc.

Apple has put Flipboard in a somewhat unenviable position. They are promoting thousands of more people to download the app, without allowing the developers to test. Now it is broken. First impressions are being made, reviews are being written, and even the fans are basing their opinion more on speculation than real experience.

It is unfortunate.

Note: I do believe Apple’s approval process limits the amount of crap and gives you a baseline expectation when downloading or purchasing an app. It is a double-edged sword.

I have a better idea though.

Today is my 5th consecutive work day riding my bike to work. It is just a mile, but it feels like an accomplishment.  I do exercise with some regularity, but riding my bike to work integrates it into my routine.

I also enjoy the downtime. I can’t text while I ride, and talking on the phone is not exactly convenient even with headphones. The result is 10 minutes on either side of the work day where I can clear my head and/or solve problems.

I have been playing a little game on my commute too. Since I am riding a fixed-gear bike I have a goal to never hit the brakes (I do have breaks) or take my feet out of the clips. It makes it more fun.

There is alot of push-back about fixed gear bikes being trendy and a lot of misunderstanding about them being reckless. It is undeniable that single-speed / fixies continue to row in popularity (heck, you can buy a single speed at WalMart for $150). This excellent craigslist post wouldn’t be so excellent if there wasn’t some truth to it.

The thing is, fixed-gear bikes have qualities that road bikes, mountain bikes, touring bikes, and beach cruisers don’t have (for me):

• Riding a fixie reminds me of being a kid and riding all over town on a BMX bike. (What were my parents thinking! I would never let my kids do that!) It makes riding fun for me.
• The simplicity of the bike means there is very little to break, and there is not a big difference between great components and decent components (at least for what I am doing). A cheap derailleur would annoy me all the way home.

I don’t want an award for riding a mile, but a lot of people couldn’t do it. There is no coasting and no easier gears for going uphill. That encourages me to push myself a little more – to try harder. I am getting better already. My legs are a little less wobbly when I get home and I am a little less out of breath.

This is the hot part of the Summer, so I am thinking the Fall is going to be awesome. The challenge and the fun will help me keep it up, and it is definitely good for me.

An added bonus is that I buy less gas for my truck.

Update: I just looked up my route on Google maps and it is actually 2 miles each way.

The problem is that it is hard to figure out how to integrate all of this stuff into our lives. This morning I was reading Jason Moore’s comments on the difference in Having and Using. It made me realize that there are a bunch of us who sign up for all of these great services and tools and don’t have the time to really use them.

Sometimes I will have an aha moment with a service / tool and I will post about it here. That is because there is some value in sharing how I do it and often times I will get tips back on how other people are using it.

Do you have an Evernote account? Do you really use it? If so, could you tell me because I haven’t really integrated it into my workflow. Do you use gmail for email? Do you use it well? If not, don’t you wish you could read some real-life pointers from people like you?

There is a great site that I have used over the years for finding great new software. http://iusethis.com is a place for people to share the software that they use and the ratings give some indication of popularity. But how do you use it well?  I want a site focused on sharing HOW to use software.

Not an instruction manual – a use case.

Coincidentally, http://HowIUse.it was available.  So I bought it.  This site could be awesome.

Does anyone know some open source software that would be a good tool for allowing people to post how they use software and allow other people to rate those postings and comment on them?  Should I use wordpress? Try to get a Stack Exchange site?  Use a Hot Or Not clone?

Ideally people could post text and images, link to screen casts and videos, etc.  Software developers and service providers could post how they intend for their tool / service to be used.

Would you post on a site like that? Would you read it? Should it be moderated / curated or not? So many questions.

up·side adj.

going higher, esp. in price or worth: This stock has a nice upside potential.

down·side adj.

of or involving a decline, esp. in stock prices: The downside risk on this stock is considered far greater than the potential for gain.

Conventional wisdom would say that you make money with the upside and lose money with the downside.  I mean, if you buy a stock and it does not realize your upside potential then you didn’t make money. Right?

Not really.

You have probably heard the folksy business wisdom “it takes money to make money.” This is used a couple of different ways. Sometimes it means that you can’t make money if you don’t already have money (i.e. an excuse) . The other way people use it is to mean that you have to increase spending in order to increase profits. Sales guys love this one. I mean, if you want to really make money, you are going to need that new copier, a company car, and embossed and bonded business cards.

During the housing bubble a realtor might have encouraged you to buy a bigger house than you can afford because, well, it takes money to make money. I mean, if the home prices are growing at 20% a year, don’t you want to start at $300k instead of $200k?

That is an upside focus.

“You make your money when you buy your house, not when you sell it.”

So buy the bigger house? No, buy the house with the least risk. These days I would gauge the risk of a house as the likely hood that you will want to live there long enough for the housing market to turn around, but I digress.

Focusing on the potential upside easily leads to bad investments, wishful thinking, and cost overruns.  The upside is romantic, it is alluring, it is the entrepreneurial song of the siren.

The downside is sobering. It is also where you make your money.

In the Malcolm Gladwell article Sure Thing he quotes hedge fund manager John Paulson’s mentor as having said ”Watch the downside; the upside will take care of itself.” The mentor’s name was Marty Gruss. “The ideal Gruss investment had limited risk, but held the promise of a potential fortune.”

Joi Ito described the same thing when he explained the reason venture capital outperforms most other investments is due to limiting the downside:

“Venture investing, on the other hand, is typically a fund or an individual with relatively limited downside. The most that you’re going to lose is the money you’ve invested and your time. The upside in venture investing, however, is hugely leveraged. If you’re in a good deal, you can make hundreds and thousands times your money with very little incremental cost.”

While I am not a huge fan of that Rich Dad, Poor Dad guy, his method of real estate investing is all about limiting the downside as well – use other people’s money to buy foreclosed homes. Talk about limiting downside! He is using none of his own money to buy an under-valued asset.

Sometimes things get out of whack.  The housing bubble and related crash of the financial services industry comes to mind. I’ll assume you are somewhat familiar with the general story of subprime loans and derivatives. If you ask Warren Buffett how we could have prevented that, he will tell you that there needed to be a bigger downside for the CEOs of the banks. Those CEOs had everything to gain and very little to lose.

I am not suggesting that we should admire the CEOs of failed banks, but I do think it supports the notion that ignoring the downside and focusing on the upside is not only bad business but also irresponsible.

Yesterday I wrote about “vanity metrics” and their usefulness (or lack thereof). Those vanity metrics are almost always big upside focused numbers. As we move into a more cautious “new normal”, maybe we will start seeing people bragging about their limited downside exposure.

“A business success can be measured on the bottom line. A business success is not measured on its top line. I have heard celebrity entrepreneurs brag about their businesses calling out their total revenue as though the sheer volume of cash that their business touched was somehow meaningful.”

I have been guilty of this to some degree.  Though part of that is that you want to share some measure of growth without talking about how much money you make.  I have a few friends that I compare top-line growth numbers with, but fewer friends that I am willing to also share profit margin with.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with sharing top-line numbers in that way, but I do think that measuring your own success that way is a fool’s errand.

There is no such thing as a dangerous metric, it is just important to know exactly what that metric is telling you.  Top-line revenue doesn’t tell you if you are successful, how much money you are making, or even if you are profitable at all. Since it is typically the biggest dollar figure in your business, it is a metric that sounds good. These BANs (big ass numbers) are about often times used to stroke the ego of the entrepreneur

A metric that is impressive, but not particularly informative is a “vanity metric”. If you want a good afternoon of reading, search Google for “vanity metric” and read page after page of salient business advice.

Vanity metrics are all around us. In addition to revenue we hear big numbers like the amount of investment money raised, the number of user accounts on a service, the number of employees, the number of lines of code in software, the number of iDevices sold in the first day, the number of attendees at a conference.

Question: when have you ever been at a conference and thought “this is pretty good, but it wouldn’t it be really great if there were twice as many people here?”

Answer: Probably never. The converse is usually true.

Vanity metrics are rife in social media as well. We compare things like the number of twitter followers or the number of subscribers to your blog feed. The main thing I learned from developing Statzen is that those metrics are worthless. A tiny fraction of your followers or subscribers actually see what you write, and only a fraction of those actually read it and process it.

It is important to not confuse vanity metrics for key indicators.  When giving an interview to the paper, use all the BANs you want. Just be careful that you don’t start thinking those numbers are more important than they are.

While those changes are targeted at the reader, the writing is mostly for me.

Several years before I started blogging I regularly wrote in a journal. It was a well-worn composition book that I carried with me almost everywhere. I would sit outside at a table or on my couch and just write. I wasn’t trying to

My writing here has been an attempt to capture some of what I enjoyed back then. While those writings weren’t shared with anyone, they served the same purpose – they helped me to clarify my thoughts. It is more difficult to formulate those thoughts publicly, but that is more internal fear than anything.

The question that I am dealing with today is:

Now that I am investing more time writing, what exactly is it that I am investing in? What is the upside?

If I am primarily concerned with fleshing out my thoughts then I am going to end up limited by what personal information I want to share online. It is a limitation that seems to breed mediocrity.

If I am hoping to gain influence then I need to refine the topics a bit and make a decision on who’s influence I am trying to gain. I could primarily write about mobile application development and effectively leverage that into a larger customer base for mobile app development in Nashville.

I guess it boils down to an even simpler question. Am I writing for others or for myself?

It seems that I have been in limbo on this one. I want to write more regularly, but I don’t always have the time and energy to create something that I think people will really want to read.

That’s ok with me though.  There is a limited downside (my time) with a high potential for upside (winning friends and gaining influence?).

Regardless, I am enjoying the process.

This post was triggered by partially by Spencer Fry’s essay Why Entrepreneurs Should Write.

In a couple of days I am going to attend a Sprint EVO / 4G event here in Nashville and I have to say that I will be attending as a fan.  I was a long time Sprint customer until I left two and a half years ago. At that time I listed several reasons for leaving Sprint. Two of them were the future of 4G networks and the phone selection.

I have to eat my words on the 4G thing and thanks to Android, Sprint is really starting to provide some compelling phones.

Here is what I projected about 4G networks 2.5 years ago:

Sprint’s future looks bleak. They are having to “go it alone” on WiMax; that is a lot of network to build out. Meanwhile, AT&T, Tmobile, and Verizon are all going with LTE.

What I failed to realize is that Sprint would be releasing their WiMax 4G well before the competition. I do wonder what will happen if AT&T, Verizon, and Tmobile all go LTE and Sprint goes WiMax, but there is a rumor today that Sprint may buy Tmobile and go LTE as well. If that rumor plays out then the whole WiMax thing might just be an excellent customer grab in the interim. Regardless, it has worked on me.

For the past month, Sprint’s 4G network has been my primary connection to the internet. I have used it at home, in airports, while driving down the street, at hotels, and at coffee houses without internet (or with internet slower than the 4G network).  I have used it in Nashville, Salt Lake City, and Los Angeles. The great part is that my understanding is that 4G hasn’t even been officially available in those cities yet. I am just happening to have good luck with the towers coming online where I am.

It hasn’t been 100% rosy though.  Accessing the 4G network via the Sprint Overdrive mobile router has high latency.  I guess that is to be expected of a mobile network, but while the speed tests show a fast connection, the high latency does slow things down a bit. I wish I had done a better job of keeping track of the various speed tests I have run, but let’s just say that the latency for the 4G network seems to be about 10x higher than most broadband connections I have compared against.

The other slight issue is that my iPad is frequently losing and finding the connection to the Overdrive. Even if they are right next to each other.  I read a suggestion on Rex’s blog and switched the Overdrive’s security to WPA2. This seemed to work for a while, but the problem has reappeared recently.  Maybe I need to check that the setting didn’t revert, but either way I am hoping this gets resolved with a software update to either the iPad or the Overdrive.

These are small complaints overall though. Erica and I were in LA for two weeks and were regularly connected with our laptops and iPads to the same mobile connection. When I used to do something similar with my Verizon EVDO card it required my laptop to be on and running internet sharing (and was in violation of the Verizon terms). Now, I know that mobile connection sharing is becoming more common, but I still think it is awesome!

I also have been really impressed that I have been able to use a mobile network as my primary connection to the internet. It is not for everyone, but I love the convenience of it.

A prime example of the convenience is that I just moved to a new house. The moment I go there I had internet in the new place. There was no company to call, no technician to wait for, and no new wires to run. While I don’t plan on moving again while 4G internet is still relevant, it was a nice convenience.

So all in all I have to say that Sprint 4G’s network is pretty impressive. I have a feeling more and more of you will get to experience it as you pick up EVOs, Overdrives, and the plethora of new Android phones that are likely right around the corner.  Sprint has won me back as a customer.