North Florida Weather Blog

2012 Low Number of Tornadoes

2013-01-02T18:32:00.001-05:00

The start of 2012 could not have been any busier for the numbers of tornadoes that were reported. So why couldn't the rest of the season keep up? Lack of shear and the drought are just 2 of the clues why the 2012 tornado season was so mundane.

Tornadoes cannot exist without the clouds and moisture to help build them.
(Picture from this summer in the Midwest)

The jet stream during the most of the summer and fall took the storm systems well to north and west away from any available moisture. Similar patterns existed during the late 1970s and 1980s. The weather patterns helped create a preliminary count of only 1,116 tornadoes.

Many of the storm systems in late half of 2012 affected Canada thanks to a ridge of high pressure.

This year's 1,116 tornadoes is well below the 6-year-average tornado count. The yearly tornado average is right around 1,530. During 2008, the tornado count hit 2,194- a record. And even though two tropical systems affected North Florida during 2012, tornadoes did not accompany what are usually tornadic producing systems.

The 2012 year ranks in the bottom 25th percentile for tornado production.

The closest tornado to Jacksonville formed near Brunswick, GA, in 2012. It only was on the ground for short time before coming a waterspout. No damage from this tornado producing storm was reported.

Closest confirmed tornado to Jacksonville.

Storm system on the way for the weekend

2012-12-27T23:22:00.003-05:00

Yet another storm system is on its way for the eastern third of the country for the last weekend of 2012. This winter storm will likely produce somewhat similar affects to that of the last storm.

Synoptic scenario going into weekend.

Overall snow accumulations will be less and reports of severe will be minimal compared to this week's earlier storm. With the NAO positive and the PNA positive, a more zonal pattern will prevail which will tend to keep the lid on significant storm development.

Storm Reports from the Christmas Day storm.

North Florida will be closer to the center of the low pressure and should get a decent amount of rain from the storm system. Rainfall accumulations of an average of 1 or 2 inches will fall across much of the area. All of which will occur before Saturday afternoon. Severe parameters, at this point, do not seem too impressive for the northern part of the state.

Forecast Rainfall

Parameters needed for severe weather will lack and pressures will be high. Instability values are forecast to be on the low side. Craven Brooks, which details severe parameters, are also not looking too impressive at this point. Conditions for severe weather will improve as you head down further down the peninsula.

Craven Brooks Significant Parameter

Hurricane Center Proposes New Hurricane Warning Criteria

2012-12-06T01:35:00.002-05:00

One day systems, such as Sandy, that make landfall without having a hurricane status may be given hurricane watches and warnings. The new definition of hurricane watch and warning is reported to soon include any storm system that has winds of 74 mph or higher. Before now, only areas affected by hurricanes were warned through hurricane warnings.

Another change is that the warning will remain in effect longer until dangerous conditions along the coast have deteriorated.

The National Weather Service Statement:

“A proposal was raised during the NOAA Hurricane Conference last week for NWS to have the option to issue hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones that threaten life and property. This is one step in the process required before any proposed change to operational products becomes final. As part of our review of the 2012 hurricane season, including the Sandy service assessment, we will review all policies and changes through the existing and established process.”

Current Hurricane / Tropical Storm Alerts

Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that tropical-storm conditions are possible within the specified area.
Hurricane Watch: An announcement that hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area.

watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds

Action

Tropical Storm Warning: An announcement that tropical-storm conditions are expected within the specified area.
Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area.

warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds

Action

Minor Changes Coming To Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

2012-03-25T22:29:00.000-04:00

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) is undergoing a minor modification
for 2012 in order to resolve awkwardness associated with conversions among the various
units used for wind speed in advisory products. The change broadens the Category 4
wind speed range by one mile per hour (mph) at each end of the range, yielding a new
range of 130-156 mph. This change does not alter the category assignments of any
storms in the historical record, nor will it change the category assignments for future
storms. The reasoning behind this change and a tabulation of the old and new scales is
given below.

Because of the inherent uncertainty in estimating the strength of tropical cyclones, the
National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center assign tropical
cyclone intensities in 5-knot (kt) increments (e.g., 100, 105, 100, 115 kt, etc.). Some
advisory products, however, require intensity to be given in units of mph and kilometers
per hour (km/h). For these products, the intensity in knots is converted into mph and
km/h and then rounded to 5-mph and 5-km/h increments, so as not to suggest that the
intensity of the storm can be known to unrealistic precision (e.g., 127 mph!).

Unfortunately, this conversion and rounding process doesn’t work well at the Category 4
boundaries. Category 4 has historically been defined to be 131-155 mph (with
corresponding ranges in other units given as 114-135 kt, and 210-249 km/h). A hurricane
with an assigned intensity of 115 kt, therefore, is a Category 4 hurricane. However,
when 115 kt is converted to mph (132.3 mph) and then rounded to the nearest 5 mph (130
mph), the result falls in the Category 3 mph range. In order for the hurricane to appear
as Category 4 in both kt and mph, NHC is forced to incorrectly convert 115 kt to 135
mph in its advisory products. A similar problem occurs when the Category 4 intensity of
135 kt is converted to km/h.

To solve these rounding issues, the new SSHWS broadens the Category 4 wind speed
range by one mph at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph (113-
136 kt, 209-251 km/h). With this change, a 115-kt Category 4 hurricane can have its
intensity properly converted to mph and rounded to the nearest 5 mph (130 mph) – and
remain within the Category 4 mph range.

It’s important to reiterate that because NHC assigns intensity using 5-kt increments (and
will be doing so for the foreseeable future), neither storms in the historical record nor any
future storms would have their SSHWS category changed as a result of this adjustment.
Changing the Category 4 range to 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, and 209-251 km/h simply
allows all unit conversions from knots to be done correctly and keep storms in the correct
category, regardless of the units used.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Summary of the changes (highlighted in yellow):
Category >>>Previous range>>>New range
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1...74-95 mph....New: 74-95 mph
2...96-110 mph....New: 96-110 mph
3...111-130 mph....New: 111-129 mph
4...131-155 mph....New: 130-156 mph
5...156 mph or higher....New: 157 mph or higher

Drought To Continue

2012-03-05T21:36:00.000-05:00

Officially, this year, less than 2 inches of rainfall has fallen over North Florida. Some locations have seen more than others. Last year, at this time, already some 10 inches of rainfall had occurred. We are certainly running behind last year's numbers.

The lack of rainfall has the area in an extreme drought. Not too far north of the Florida line parts of Georgia are experiencing exceptional drought levels. And there is no good news in the pipeline. Most of the energy the next couple of weeks will be far displaced from North Florida. Much of the rest of the month will be dry, and there is a chance that the area will finish the month with less than 2 inches of rainfall for the entire year.

Jet Stream

Fire Danger Soars

2012-01-15T19:06:00.000-05:00

High to extreme fire danger, across the entire State.

The state of the drought is about to turn ugly across a good portion of the Southeast, including Florida. Since December 1st around 1.5 inches of rain has fallen around the region. And since January 1st, only sprinkles have been recorded in the official rain gauge. The drought isn't a new topic; it has really been in the formation process for years. The years 2010 and 2011 produced a combined rainfall deficit of around 27 inches.

Precipitation over last 100 years for North Florida.

La Ninas and global weather pattern changes are mostly responsible, for the drier conditions. Over the past 100 years, there has been a gradual decline in precipitation observed. And the news continues to get worse- there are no changes to the forecast ahead. Drier than normal conditions look like they will dominate the next two weeks. January typically sees 3.69 inches of rain. So far, we are at zero inches of precip. for the month.

5 day precipitation forecast

Many areas of the State could finish the remaining 2 weeks, of the month, without any significant rainfall. An amplified to zonal pattern will hold on for much if this time period. This type of pattern will tend to bring in warmer air, but it will also keep the majority of major systems, to the north.

Current Jet Stream Pattern

Several Warm Days Ahead

2012-01-08T23:21:00.000-05:00

Climatologically speaking, the area is entering what is usually the coldest week of winter. Typically the area struggles to reach the mid 60s, for our high, and plummets into the lower 40s, for the low. The week were are just now entering will be anything but typical.

For the majority of this week, temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees above average in many areas. A lack of snow cover across the Continental 48 and the combination of a high pressure system, to our east-northeast, are responsible for the warm conditions. Temperatures could approach 80 degrees both on Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure helps pump southeasterly flow into Florida.

Only about 13% of the U.S. 48 has snow on the ground. This figure should be
between double or triple of where it is right now.

By the end of the week, a change in the warm/dry pattern could be in the making. But the verdict is still out on whether a temporary change or something more consequential. A good place to start looking for definitive answers is in the eastern Pacific. This is where water temperatures have been warming over the last couple of weeks. This warming could indicate that La Nina's control over the weather pattern could be lessening.

Busy Times In The Weather Center- Tracking Cold Temperatures and Severe Storms

2011-12-29T00:02:00.002-05:00

March is usually the month that comes in like a lion, but it is looking like more and more like January will take suit. Within a period of about 2 weeks, North Florida could go from near 80 degree temperatures, to harsh cold, to even severe storms. What a month! And it hasn't even begun.

The only real chance the area has to get to 80 degrees is on Sunday the 1st. A dry cold front will push into the region, during the first week of January, and will usher in "cooler" air. Technically temperatures will be average, with highs near 65 and lows in the lower 40's. It certainly will be a dose of what reality should be, for this time of the winter.

January 2nd Synoptic Scenario

Forecast models show an extended period of coldness. And some even show the area struggling to get into the 50's for highs, around the 5th-8th. I think the cold outbreak is overdone by the forecast models. There simply is not the conveyor belt of snow for the cold air to travel down to from Canada. Some places in Canada have not even seen snow this season! Snow levels are between one third and one half below normal in North America. And without snow in place, cold air masses have a hard time making it to the Deep South and into Florida.

Current Snow Cover

Any type of precipitation is a long way off, but it is still in the long range forecast. The clash of cold air and unseasonable warm air will create enough of a lift for severe weather, for some portion of the Southeast. The exact location is unclear, as of this point. It should be noted that Florida and North-Central Florida are no strangers to severe weather, during the heart of the winter months.


January Severe Weather?

It was just last January that a deadly tornado outbreak struck Central Florida. This severe weather outbreak really started the ball rolling on the active and infamous 2011 severe weather season. It is too soon to tell on whether the severe weather in 2012 will mirror the activity seen in 2011. So stay tuned!

Severe Weather Outbreak January 2011

Weather Cam Near the North Pole

2011-12-23T12:31:00.001-05:00

This webcam is perched above the streets of downtown Barrow, Alaska. Barrow is the northernmost city in the U.S.A. By the way, this part of Alaska gets no sunlight from late November until mid January. Good luck finding Santa through all the darkness!

Barrow, Alaska Amount of Daylight.

Few To Have White Christmas in 2011

2011-12-18T23:42:00.000-05:00

GTN is dreaming for a white Christmas, are you? There is both good and bad news when it comes down to this department. First off, Florida or any other portion of the Southeast will not see snow. This is pretty much widely expected, since such an event is a rare entity.

The Bad News: Most of the country is snow free, as of this point. This is unusual for this part of December. Cities such as Green Bay, Fargo, and International Falls do not even have snow on the ground! Why the lack of snow? There are two reasons: 1) Cold air has not been able to penetrate into the lower U.S. 48. 2) Storm systems have been on the tame side and have lacked moisture.

Current Snow and Ice layer

Usually between 1/3rd and 1/2th see snow on the ground for Christmas

Now to the good news. The next two weeks will feature a more active storm pattern across the East.The storm systems will increase the chances of snow for those in the Upper Ohio Valley. They will also tend to increase precipitation in the Tennessee Valley, but it should be of the liquid variety.

Rains Slightly Help Drought Situation For Some

2011-12-12T22:50:00.001-05:00

Recent rains have aided in the fight against the ongoing drought. The drier locations, of the State, picked up on widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall. These rains will subdue immediate wildfire concerns. Areas south and west of Gainesville were not as lucky with the rainfall. In fact, many areas of Gilchrist, Dixie, and Levy Counties picked up no rainfall.

Estimated Rainfall: Past 48 Hour

The rainfall that occurred was produced by the combination two weather complexes. A Nor'easter in the Atlantic combined with a jet stream disturbance. The existence of both, in the same region, is a rather rare event, for this part of the country. With the departure of both influences, the area will gradually warm to near 80 degrees by the end of the work week. Unfortunately, the next best chance of rain is about one week away. And the general chance of heavy rainfall is not that great.

Current Drought Index

November 2011 World Temperature Rank

2011-12-10T17:41:00.000-05:00

According to satellite measurements, this past month's temperature anomaly was slightly above normal. Officially, the world's average temperature, for the month of November came in at +0.033 C above normal. This makes November 2011 the coolest November since the year 2000. One possible reason for the somewhat "cooler" month is because of a weaker signal from La Nina.

Temperature Anomaly Map

As for the local North Florida region, we finished the month of November much around normal, as well. This is even though 18 days recorded warmer than normal temperatures. And half of those days were spent with temperatures reaching the 80's. The average high in November is around 73 degrees.

Signifcant Winter Storm On The Way For Eastern Seaboard

2011-12-10T03:12:00.001-05:00

The next several days will lead to a gradual warm up with temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 70's, during the midweek time frame. The warm temperatures will add fuel to the fire, so to speak, and will help energize the next storm system. Affects will vary greatly because of sharp temperature contrasts.

Model Depiction For Sunday the 18th.

Areas in North Florida will pick on rainfall, but it looks like the majority of the rainfall will, unfortunately, miss the area. The last significant rainfall in the region happened during Thanksgiving weak. For the year, the area is nearly 5 inches of precipitation below normal, so we will take any rainfall that we can get. Rainfall totals, at this point, looks like they will come in at below half-an-inch around Monday the 19th of December. Once again, rain will be light and severe weather does not look likely.

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts from Saturday the 18th - Tuesday the 20th.

Outside of Florida, areas of the deep South and coastal Carolinas will likely pick up on some severe weather. Areas of the Appalachians and eastern Ohio Valley look to be in store for a sizable snow event. And major hubs across the East will pick up on some decent rainfall and avoid most of the wintry weather. All the adverse weather will be associated with a cold frontal boundary. Once the cold front passes through the North Florida region, subfreezing temperatures could be possible.

Forecast Weather for Monday the 19th

2011 Arctic Report

2011-12-04T23:30:00.000-05:00

Rapid Change (This Past Year)
Atmosphere (D): Higher temperatures in the Arctic and unusually lower temperatures in some low latitude regions are linked to global shifts in atmospheric wind patterns. Sea Ice (C-): A shift in the Arctic Ocean system since 2007 is indicated by the decline in ice age and summer extent, and the warmer, fresher upper ocean. Hydrology (C): Continued dramatic loss of ice sheet and glacier mass, reduced snow extent and duration, and increasing permafrost temperatures are linked to higher Arctic air temperatures. Moderate Change (This Past Year) Marine Ecosystems (C+): Since 1998, biological productivity at the base of the food chain has increased by 20%. Polar bears and walrus continue to lose habitat in Alaskan waters. Terrestrial Ecosystems (B-): Increased “greenness” of tundra vegetation in Eurasia and North America linked to increase in open water and warmer land temperatures in coastal regions.

Hurricane Season 2011 Recap

2011-11-30T22:40:00.001-05:00

The jury will remain divided on whether the 2011 season was an active one or not. The season produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11.

Where the "lack" of storms occurred was in regards to hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only seven hurricanes formed, and, from the seven, three became major hurricanes. While these numbers are above average, they are not in the ratio form you would expect. If the season were to be in perfect ratio form, one would expect more like 12 hurricanes and 5-6 major hurricanes.

Northwesterly winds across parts of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic ocean were responsible for shear and drier air. Frontal boundaries aided in some of the past summer's weather setup. Check out the satellite imagery for the entire season below.

Major Cool Down On The Way

2011-11-29T08:25:00.000-05:00

A cold frontal boundary will reverse the trend of near record high temperatures. For the majority of the remaining week, temperatures will be at or slightly below average. Average temperatures for this time of year usually climb from a low of 48 to a high of around 70 degrees. Large portions of the eastern third of the nation will face a similar fate. Colder air could prevail so much that isolated pockets of snow could form in the higher elevations, along the East Coast.

Second Significant Cold Front Of Year Barrels Through East.

Precipitation amounts have not been impressive, even though this area of low pressure is a powerful storm system. The stark contrast in temperatures just goes to show the power that this accompanies this storm system. Temperatures have already dropped more than 30 degrees in many areas, including here in North Florida.

30's for lows and 50's for highs across much of the country these next few days.

The cold air will not stay around long because there isn't a significant layer of snow on the ground, yet, in the Continental 48 states. Snow acts as an conveyor belt for cold air. Without it in place, cold air from Canada is not able to stay for long in the lower 48. So, with this particular cool down, expect low and high temperatures to be below average for the next 3 days, followed by more seasonal temperatures.

Conveyor belt of snow not existent at this point of the season.

Putnam County Fire

2011-11-21T22:43:00.001-05:00

An 800 acre wildfire continues to grow in the western portions of Putnam county. The wildfire is burning in swamp lands between Hawthorne and Interlachen. Luckily, smoke has not been problem over the last several weeks, but the situation looks like it is about to change.

Levy Prairie Wildfire Growing in Putnam County

Over the past several weeks, windy conditions mostly from the northeast, have dominated the weather pattern. But with relaxing wind and occasionally a southwesterly breeze, more of us will be smelling and seeing the smoke from this wildfire.

Multiple wildfires have popped up in Northern Florida over the last 2 weeks. And this should not be a surprise to anyone, as we are in a streak of consecutive monthly rainfall deficits. So far, for the year, Jax's official rainfall deficit is around 4 inches. But this does not tell the whole story. When the rainfall deficit of the past two years is combined, the deficit come out to be around 30 inches of rainfall!

The bad news is that there is not any hope, in the long term forecast, for decent rainfall. November and December will both come in below average in rainfall. And if history tells us anything, the status of La Nina will undoubtedly keep much of Florida dry through the winter and springs months of 2012.

KBDI Drought Status

Thanksgiving Travel Weather

2011-11-20T09:34:00.002-05:00

This Thanksgiving's travel weather actually looks seemingly calm with few experiencing major delays and headaches. A storm system will progress through the mid section of the country and provide portions of the Mississippi Valley with a chance of severe thunderstorms. Many areas, in the East, will receive rainfall but when averaged out with the other weather that will be experienced, the end mean will not be too bad.

Areas of Country Ranked by Weekly Weather Conditions:
Southwest: Best
Northeast: Not Bad
Southeast: Average
Northwest: Poor
Midwest: Bad
Central Plains: Awful

Mid-Week Synoptic Scenario

Numerous areas of high pressure will help limit the extent to which this particular, midweek storm system will be able to wind up. Warm temperatures should be plentiful around the main inflow channel but a stark contrast between temperatures will not exist.

Because the storm will be in its evolving stages and move slowly, heavy rain will accumulate from the Red River Valley to southwest portions of the Ohio Valley. This area of country will likely fall victim to numerous heavy precipitation events as we head into the early winter months.

Estimated Rainfall Amounts Through Thanksgiving

What was the weather like during the first Thanksgiving?

2011-11-18T23:47:00.002-05:00

No one really knows the date of the first Thanksgiving. It is thought that it occurred around October 24th, 1621 and lasted for 3 days. Weather conditions were not specifically written down, but we do have some inclinations of the conditions that were experienced some nearly 400 years ago.

One has to assume that the weather was uneventful and near normal conditions occurred. Major weather events occurred and were recorded during both the early fall season and early winter. A normal New England during this time period would have high temperatures in the lower 60's. And it was likely dry.

Late October 1621: Weather map depicts a stormy West and a rather warm and tranquil East.

It is important to note that the Pilgrims actually landed in New England during the fall of 1620. This year was particularly rough, weather speaking. Seas were rough which actually made the Pilgrims divert to Plymouth Massachusetts. Their first winter was cold and snowy, followed by a rough Spring and early summer. But these harsh conditions, for humans, actually primed the soil and lead to a plentiful fall harvest for North America's first Thanksgiving in 1621.

Fog Could Be A Problem For Upcoming Mornings

2011-11-14T23:36:00.003-05:00

A mixture of radiation and advection fog could affect the next several mornings. With the additive ingredient of light winds, sea fog will form over night.

North Florida and South Georgia average around 45 days of significant fog a year. November is characteristically the month with the most fog. This is because of the stark temperature contrasts as one goes up in height. Moisture in the top bed of the soil is another main ingredient for the production of fog.

October and November Are The Foggiest Months

Fog Definitions:
>Advection fog is created when moist air passes over a cool surface, and the air is cooled. As the air is cooled it reaches its relative humidity saturation point and fog is formed.

>Radiation fog is relatively shallow fog. Radiation fog is also known as ground fog. It is produced near the ground. It is formed by the cooling of land after sunset by thermal (infrared) radiation in calm conditions with a clear sky.

Jacksonville Fog

Thanksgiving Day Forecast For Jacksonville

2011-11-08T20:00:00.000-05:00

Thanksgiving Day Forecast

High: 72-76
Sky: Partly Cloudy

Notes: No storms or fronts in eastern third of country.

Confidence: HIGH

Average First Frost and Freeze Dates In Jacksonville

2011-11-03T19:12:00.002-04:00

First Frost
November is climatologically when most inland sites across the NWS Jacksonville forecast area have their first frosty morning. For frost to form, similar conditions conducive to dew formation are needed, including light low level winds and low level moisture. Frost forms when the temperature at the ground reaches freezing, or 32 °F. If the dew point temperature (which measures the amount of moisture in the air) also nears freezing, then the moisture in the air near the freezing ground changes from water vapor to solid ice crystals and the ice will deposit itself on objects that had also reach freezing, which includes grass, plants and roof tops.

Many times frost is observed when measured temperatures are in the mid 30s and not at the freezing mark. Why is this? Standard temperature measurements are made generally between 4 and 6 feet above ground level. The coldest air is the densest, which means that it will lingering at ground level. The actual temperatures will sometimes be many degrees below the observed temperature, which is usually measured many feet about ground level. This is why sometimes observed temperatures are warmer than freezing, despite a widespread frost indicating freezing temperatures at ground level.

The NWS Jacksonville will issue a Frost Advisory for northeast Florida when widespread frost is expected (and a freeze warning is not in effect). For southeast Georgia, a frost advisory will be issued until the first hard freeze event is experienced, then frost advisories will resume, if necessary, after March 1st. Below is a map of the average date of the first frost (based on temperatures of 36 ° F or lower) across the NWS Jacksonville forecast area.

First Average Frost On First Coast

First Freeze

NWS Jacksonville will issue a Freeze Warnings when forecast temperatures are expected to remain below 32 ° F for 2 or more hours. Freeze warnings will continue to be issued throughout the cool season as needed for northeast Florida. Freeze warnings will not be issued for southeast Georgia after the first widespread hard freeze of the season (temperatures 27 ° F or less). Freeze warnings will resume for southeast Georgia as needed after March 1st.

Hard Freeze Warnings will be issued as needed for the entire forecast area when minimum temperatures are expected to fall at or below 27 ° F for 2 or more hours. Freeze Watches will be issued typically within 24 to 36 hours of a forecast freeze event. Below is a map of the average date of the first freeze across the NWS Jacksonville forecast area.

Average First Freeze

Peanut Crop Hit Hard By Weather Extremes

2011-11-02T22:46:00.000-04:00

Temperatures might be in the acceptable range, but precipitation has been lacking over the South for a highly successful peanut season. The main growing belt extends from Texas to Virginia. At the height of a kernel's growth, 2 inches of rainfall a weak is necessary. Many of the popular peanut growing areas have not seen beneficial rainfall for months and catastrophic drought conditions exist.

Peanut Crop Growth Areas

Because of the poor growing and producing conditions, prices of peanuts and all the many products made from peanuts have started to increase in price. And this increase is not likely to abide anytime soon. Drought conditions will continue to plague the critical peanut growing regions until the year, at least, 2013.

Dust Bowl- late 1920's

2012 Hurricane Predication Already Showing Similarities And Differences Than 2011

2011-10-31T08:34:00.001-04:00

The 2012 hurricane season is already showing some similarities and differences than what was experienced during the 2011 season. Seventeen named storms formed during the 2011 hurricane season. The majority of those took a similar path- recurving off the Eastern Seaboard.

2011 Tropical Cyclone Paths

For the second season in a row, the Gulf of Mexico and the majority of the Caribbean will likely see limited hurricane activity during the 2012 season. Also similar will be the amount of tropical cyclone activity in the western Atlantic. Just like the 2011 hurricane season, the 2012 hurricane season should see an active Atlantic season.

The main difference between the season that is just now wrapping up and next season will be the sheer number of storms. The overall activity numbers should come in closer to average at around 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major storms. There are 2 evident reasons for the decrease in numbers. First off, water temperatures should be cooler in much of the tropical Atlantic. Secondly and most importantly, El Nino could the weather patterns, at that time, meaning more shear and less of a conducive environment for tropical cyclones.

2012 Ensemble Model Water Temperature Forecast

Trends Toward El Nino

Even with the more apparent hostile conditions that could reign king over the Atlantic Basin, it is important to remember, at this point, there are not clear indications on general paths. So, it is too early to tell on whether we are talking about a high impact year or not. Remember, it only takes one storm strike to make a year seem significant and make a lifetime of memories.

When Is It Time To Fall Back?

2011-10-27T19:14:00.000-04:00

Fall back....Spring Forward...

It's ingrained in our consciousness almost as much as the A-B-Cs or our spelling reminder of "i before e." It is the changing of the clocks. Beginning in 2007, Daylight Saving Time was extended one month and begins for most of the United States at 2 a.m. on the First Sunday of November.

The new start and stop dates were set in the Energy Policy Act of 2005. One of the biggest reasons we change our clocks to Daylight Saving Time (DST) is that it reportedly saves electricity. In general, energy use and the demand for electricity for lighting our homes is directly connected to when we go to bed and when we get up.

Daylight Saving Time (DST) last until 2 a.m. on the Second Sunday in March.