Jagruti's Research on BSE/NSE

GOOD EVENING

2012-01-30T16:19:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Market lost almost 400 points on sensex today. As expected, it is becoming difficult for the market to hold firmly above sensex 17000 level. It sold off on global cues today.

But note that in this bad market also
HAVELLS, STC INDIA, HIND.COPPER, JUBILIANT FOOD,STRIDES ARCOLAB are very good medium term buys.

Banks weak. One can go short selling them.

More tomorrow,

With the best regards,

Jagruti.

UNITED SPIRITS

2012-01-25T11:30:00.000+05:30

Look good at CMP 622 approx. may rise up to 740.

STRIDES ARCOLAB AT ATH : GOOD BUY.

2012-01-25T10:27:00.001+05:30

The Bangalore-based pharmaceutical major, Strides Arcolab, sold its 94 per cent stake in Ascent Pharmahealth, a subsidiary with operations in Australia and Southeast Asia, to the U.S.-based Watson Pharmaceuticals which also acquired the remaining 6 per cent stake associated with Dennis Bastas, CEO of Ascent, in a move to restructure and focus its business.

The cash offer from Watson values Ascent at an enterprise value of Australian $375 million ($392.5 million). Ascent is a top five generic pharmaceutical company in Australia and is present in countries across Southeast Asia.

Strides develops and manufactures a wide range of IP-led niche pharma products with an emphasis on sterile injectables. It has 13 manufacturing facilities across five countries and has a 350-scientist strong global R&D Centre in Bangalore.

Arun Kumar, Executive Vice-Chairman and Group CEO of Strides Arcolab, said, "The sale of Ascent is a value-enhancing and forward looking initiative for Strides. We have been clear about our intention to focus on our highly attractive steriles segment, which we expect to be our growth engine going forward. The transaction further facilitates the execution of this strategy and unlocks significant value for the Group. Furthermore, the proceeds from the transaction considerably strengthen our balance sheet."

T. S. Rangan, Group CFO, Strides Arcolab, told this correspondent that the steriles business contributed around 40 per cent of the company's revenues and about 70 per cent of the operating earnings. "Although Ascent enjoys operating multiple of 20, the highest in industry, its sale will help us restructure our $500 million debt by allowing us to retire around $250 million and will give us some flexibility. Importantly, the saving on the interest paid to service the debt can compensate for the sale of the Ascent business," he said, adding that all Ascent's 307 employees would be absorbed by Watson.

Watson is a specialty pharma company focussed on urology and women's health. Its President and CEO Paul Bisaro said the acquisition gave Watson a successful commercial structure in Australia and Southeast Asia and a broader product pipeline.

Strides' generic business spans Australasia, Africa and India. After Ascent's sale, Strides' medium-term plan is to grow the injectibles business to global scale through its specialities' division Agila Specialties.

Jagruti Fadia.

GOOD MORNING

2012-01-25T09:46:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Market yet can not be said in the bullish trend. This upmove is more likely to be a bear market rally and it is at a strong resistance level now. If declined from here and does not go upward breaking the resistance it can go to 14500 level in time to come.

In this time of uncertainty market players should stay at a safe distance and watch the trend, however, STRIDES, TATA COFFEE, CAIRN etc are good buys as reached or reaching all time highs. IRB also a good pick and seems to have changed the trend. BANKING looks weak after arrival of the news.

Tomorrow being holiday on account of 26th January and expiry of this f&o series , positions will be squared up , market may give a decline.

More later,

Regards,

Jagruti.

CRR CUT

2012-01-24T14:00:00.001+05:30

India Unexpectedly Cuts Reserve Ratio as BRICs Act on Growth

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- India's central bank unexpectedly cut the amount of deposits lenders need to set aside as reserves for the first time since 2009 and signaled future interest-rate cuts, joining BRIC nations in aiding growth.

The Reserve Bank of India reduced the cash reserve ratio to 5.5 percent from 6 percent, it said in a statement in Mumbai today. The move would add around 320 billion rupees into commercial banks, it said. The decision was predicted by three of 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, with two foreseeing a quarter-point cut and the rest no change. The central bank left the benchmark repurchase rate at 8.5 percent for a second month.

Brazil, China and Russia have either cut borrowing costs or reduced lenders' reserve requirements in recent weeks as the debt crisis in Europe saps global expansion. While India's inflation, stoked by rupee weakness, is the fastest in the group, it eased to a two-year low last month, giving Governor Duvvuri Subbarao more scope to inject cash into an economy that grew the least since 2009 in the third quarter.

"With the liquidity deficit becoming worrying, today's move is aimed at easing the cash crunch but they are still concerned about inflation which is limiting policy options," Shubhada Rao, Mumbai-based chief economist at Yes Bank Ltd., said before the release. The RBI may start cutting the policy rate in March, she said.

Bond Yields

The BSE India Sensitive Index extended gains, rising 0.8 percent to 16,880.17 at 11:04 a.m. in Mumbai. India's rupee, which has surged about 6.5 percent against the U.S. dollar this year, advanced 0.1 percent to 50.0375. The currency is Asia's best performer this year after sliding 16 percent in 2011.

The yield on the 8.79 percent note due November 2021 fell four basis points to 8.09 percent, according to the central bank's trading system.

The Reserve Bank today cut India's growth forecast to 7 percent in the year through March from the 7.6 percent predicted in October. It kept the inflation estimate at 7 percent, according to today's statement.

The reduction in the reserve ratio, effective Jan. 28, aims to "address structural pressures on liquidity in a way" consistent with the prevailing monetary stance, the RBI said. The persistence of "tight liquidity conditions" could disrupt the flow of credit and further exacerbate growth risks, it said.

Survey

Inflationary threats make it "premature" to begin reducing the policy rate, it said. These risks include the budget deficit, the rupee's fall and suppressed inflation from the domestic prices of some administered products such as coal, it said.

At the same time, the reserve-ratio cut "can be viewed as a reinforcement of the guidance that future rate actions will be towards lowering them," the central bank said.

All 21 respondents in Bloomberg's survey predicted no change in the repurchase rate today.

The Reserve Bank has added 718.8 billion rupees into the banking system since the start of November by purchasing government securities from lenders, resuming open market operations after 10 months to alleviate the cash shortage and support credit growth.

India's benchmark wholesale-price inflation rate was 7.47 percent in December. By comparison, consumer prices rose 6.5 percent in Brazil, 6.1 percent in Russia and 4.1 percent in China last month.

Maruti Sales

Brazil on Jan. 18 cut its benchmark rate by half a point for a fourth straight policy meeting to shield the economy from Europe's debt woes. Russia last month unexpectedly reduced its benchmark rate. China in November cut the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves for the first time since 2008.

Higher borrowing costs in India are hurting demand. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., maker of almost half the cars sold in the country, said Jan. 2 that its local sales for the April to December period declined 17 percent.

Commercial banks sanctioned 339 billion rupees of loans in the three months through September, a 77 percent drop from the same quarter in the previous year, according to the central bank.

"Industrial growth remains fragile and the RBI should reduce interest rates as soon as possible to revive investment," Harsh Mariwala, chairman of Marico Ltd., an Indian maker of hair oils, said before the release. "India also needs aggressive reforms at the moment to bolster the economy."

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is under pressure to boost expansion following a struggle to attract more foreign investment, street protests against inflation and corruption allegations against officials.

His government faces at least five regional elections starting this month, including one in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state. The polls will offer an indication of support two years before national elections are due.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brendan Murray at bmurray@bloomberg.net

GOOD MORNING

2012-01-04T09:58:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Metals look strong today.

Best buys: HAVELLS, MMTC, HIND COPPERds,

More later,

Regards,

Jagruti

A HAPPY NEW YEAR ??

2012-01-03T14:43:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

A very happy new year to you all. May you all be blessed with a best blend of health and wealth this year.

Market is ready to give a little bounce from this point , it should be of around 1500 points on sensex. Best trading tips : SBI, TATA COFFEE, LT.
Buy on decline at around 3-20pm. Sell around sensex 17000.

More later,
Regards.
Jagruti.

GOOD EVENING

2011-12-19T21:40:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

The market broke the support of Sensex 15500 and it is heading towards 14500 now and then 12500 for sure in time to come. The market is bearish. Even gold and silver has broken its trend line now and are sure to decline. Rallies will come but this will not be a sign of market turning bullish, they will be bear market rallies and any rise should be used for shorting or selling and booking profits on investments. Traders should sit on cash and be ready to invest nearing bottom in the fundamentally good scripes.

Sectors to be kept in mind to invest as opportunity comes are FMCG, HEALTHCARE, IT
Sectors to be avoided are BANKING, CAPITAL GOODS, REALTY, POWER, AUTO.

More later,

Good night,

Regards,
Jagruti.

GOOD AFTERNOON

2011-12-08T13:30:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,
Hope you all are doing good.

The market is ready to give a fall. It will take support around 15500.

Banking is looking bad.

Short SBI, ICICI , TATA STEEL, LT, TATA MOTORS.

Do not go long , sell on every rise. In this market also as I said earlier, HAVELLS is very good to hold or buy as a medium term investment.
UNITED BEWERAGES also a good short term trade or medium term investment.

More later,

Regards,

Jagruti.

LIC HSNG FIN, AXIS BANK ALSO GOOD

2011-12-02T13:50:00.002+05:30

ITC ALL TIME BEST BUY NEAR BY TARGET 240

2011-12-02T13:49:00.002+05:30

Trading this bounce...

2011-12-02T13:46:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

If one wants to trade in this bounce and take benefit one should go long in

                    CMP        Approx Target
SBI            1855               2000
LT               1305              1400
INFOSYS   2690              2880
RELIANCE   805                 900

Keep booking profits. Trade long for very short term.

More Later,
Regards,
Jagruti

GOOD MORNING

2011-12-01T11:21:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Let's welcome Shibu to this blog. Wish you happy using this blog to your benefit.

Our market opened gap up on global cues, today. The break out is shown in banks and financial institutions but it does not have strength to sustain. According to me, this is an exit opportunity, avoid fresh buyings. Sensex will face a very strong resistance at 16760. Undercurrent of the market is still bearish.

More later,

Regards,
Jagruti.

GOOD MORNING

2011-11-22T09:20:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Though I do not like our markets falling but I am happy about my research and analysis which are proved right which can be viewed from earlier posts. The upmove started from last week of May 2010 has been completely retraced yesterday. Also the upmove started from March 2009 has been retraced by almost 50% which suggests that market has further downside. It may not continuously keep falling like last 8 days but gradually it will go down and touch recent bottoms. Global cues and our market specific cues are negative. Rupee touching new lows are the factors contributing the fall. We have to wait and watch the market moves now. We have to take view at sensex 15600 or so that whether it falls further or giving upmove taking support at this level.

More later,

With best regards,
Jagruti.

GOOD MORNING

2011-11-16T10:17:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Our market is though with bearish undercurrent , is ready to give bounce back on nearing the expiry of November series. It is time to trade for a very very short term. On every high it is opportunity to exit and book profit or short . There is yet not time to invest. Market is sure to touch recent lows in time to come.

More later,
Regards,
Jagruti.

GOOD MORNING

2011-11-11T12:09:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

How are you doing ?

I had written a week ago about my views on the market and also a few days ago I posted the other view of Darashaw & Co. ....
From yesterday, those views seem to be coming true. Market has started declining on the global cues. It may reach slowly and gradually to sensex 15000 level and at that time we have again to take view whether it will rise or fall from that point !!

In this bad market also HAVELLS is doing good. In the medium term it should rise from CMP419 to approx 600+.

I had also adviced about buying and staying invested in precious metals like gold and silver. Once I had said that gold will rise up to INR 30,000. The level has almost reached.

I am not active on the blog giving picks every now and then but it does not mean that I am not active on the markets.

More later,

With the best regards,

Jagruti.

THE OTHER VIEW.....

2011-11-04T14:26:00.001+05:30

Darashaw & Co has had a very circumspect view on the market for Darashaw & Co has had a very circumspect view on the market for several months. Dr. Regan F Homavazir, CMT, associate vice president, technical research of Darashaw & Co says, the current rally has not changed that view. The long-term picture still continues to remain bearish.

According to him, the rally at best will go up to 5,400-5,500. Should the Nifty cross above 5,500 then the base has shifted higher. In the absence of that, we will continue to remain bearish and sub-15,000 levels are a possibility, he adds.
He further says, 5,200 has now become a key support for the Nifty. Should 5,200 be decisively broken, 4,700 is a very bright possibility.

Stay invested in precious metals

2011-11-02T14:35:00.001+05:30

Top Gold Forecasters See Rally to Record by March: Commodities

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe's debt crisis is unresolved.

Futures traded in New York may rise 13 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts.

Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion rose the most in three months in October, and the most-widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by Nov. 22. Demand for the metal accelerated since May as slowing growth and mounting concern that European leaders will fail to contain the region's debt crisis caused $7.5 trillion to be erased from the value of global equities.

"There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment," said Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, the second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months. "The environment for gold is just perfect."

ETP holdings expanded 1 percent to 2,271.2 metric tons last month, a pile valued at $124.1 billion and greater than the reserves of all but four central banks, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bullion bought for investment accounted for 38 percent of total demand in 2010, compared with about 4 percent a decade earlier, the London-based World Gold Council estimates.

Paulson Buys Gold

Paulson & Co., founded by John Paulson, remains the largest shareholder in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP backed by gold, according to an Aug. 15 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Paulson, who made $15 billion betting against subprime mortgages, bought the 31.5 million shares in the first three months of 2009. Their value increased to $5.3 billion from $2.84 billion since then.

Gold has risen 21 percent this year, beating the 1.5 percent advance in the Standard & Poor's GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, the 9.4 percent decline in the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities and the 8.8 percent return on Treasuries calculated by Bank of America Corp. indexes. The metal has appreciated more than sixfold in its 11-year run of annual gains.

Prices climbed 6.3 percent in October, rebounding from the bear market in September after dropping more than 20 percent from the record $1,923.70 reached Sept. 6. Bullion for December delivery traded at $1,724 today.

Hedge Funds

Hedge funds and other speculators increased their bets on higher prices by 8.7 percent to 138,846 futures and options in the week ended Oct. 25, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. It was the biggest gain in almost three months.

The rally may fade because the swings in prices undermined the perception of gold as a haven, said Dean Junkans, an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. In an Aug. 16 report, three weeks before the plunge began, he characterized the market as a "bubble that is poised to burst."

"It's not risk free and is not a currency, even though too many people think of it that way," Junkans said in an interview. "It can go down to $1,300, and could also rise to $2,000, but there is definitely a downside potential."

Gold also retreated in September as the Dollar Index, a measure against the currencies of six trading partners, jumped 6 percent, the most in almost three years. The 30-day correlation coefficient between gold and the index is now at -0.45, compared with 0.23 in March, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A figure of -1 means the two move in opposite directions, and 1 means they move in lockstep.

Financial System

The Dollar Index rose 3.3 percent in the past three sessions on mounting concern that European leaders will fail to contain the debt crisis, spurring demand for what are perceived to be the safest assets, including the dollar and Treasuries.

Some forecasters expect the dollar's rally to fade because of concern that a slowing global economy may force the Federal Reserve to pump more money into the financial system. The U.S. currency will end next year at $1.40 a euro, compared with $1.3703 now, according to the median of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said on Oct. 21 that a third round of large-scale securities purchases may become warranted to boost the economy. The central bank bought $2.3 trillion of housing and government debt during two rounds of so-called quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2011, spurring a 70 percent jump in the price of gold.

Bear Markets

The metal's plunge in September may signal it is poised to keep rising. The last time bullion had a bigger drop was in October 2008, when prices tumbled 18 percent as the worst global recession since World War II drove equities and commodities into bear markets. The metal rose 23 percent in the next two months.

Investors aren't the only ones buying bullion. Thailand, Bolivia, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan were among nations adding gold to their reserves in September, International Monetary Fund data show. Central banks are expanding reserves for the first time in a generation. Switzerland's central bank said Oct. 31 it returned to a profit in the first nine months as gold holdings helped counter losses on currency reserves.

"There's huge potential for gold in the coming years," said Jochen Hitzfeld, the analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich who was the most accurate tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years. "Investors are buying gold. That's reinforced by buying from central banks. Prices did run up a little bit too fast, but the drop was just a breather."

Fourth Quarter

Hitzfeld forecast on Oct. 12 that gold would average a record $1,900 in the fourth quarter of next year.

A measure of the combined earnings of the 16-member Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index will rise 8.3 percent this year and almost 27 percent in 2012, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest producer and the largest member of the index, will report net income of almost $4.8 billion this year, compared with $3.27 billion in 2010, the mean of 12 estimates shows. Shares of the Toronto-based company declined 5.3 percent this year.

"When we look at gold five years from now, we will say gold was wildly cheap," said Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas, and the fifth-best forecaster tracked by Bloomberg. "What happens to gold is going to hinge on what happens to the dollar, and that is going to be influenced by what happens in Europe and monetary policy."

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net .

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net

HELLO

2011-11-01T14:51:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

Hope you all had a wonderful Diwali this year. Wish you all a very happy and a prosperous new year.

I apologise for not being regular in writing the blog. The reason is there is nothing worth writing on the market yet.

Market is sliding again and it will test recent bottom again and may go lower than sensex 15750. It is better to remain on short rather than going long.

Short sell :

LT
SBI
RIL
INFOSYS
TATA STEEL
TATA MOTORS

More later,

Reagrds,

Jagruti.

2011-10-25T15:02:00.001+05:30

India Raises Rates, Signals End of Monetary Tightening Cycle

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- India raised interest rates for a 13th time since the start of 2010 and signaled it's nearing the end of its record cycle of increases as the economy cools. Bonds rallied the most this year.

"The likelihood of a rate action in the December mid- quarter review is relatively low," the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement in Mumbai today after it boosted the repurchase rate to 8.5 percent from 8.25 percent. Eighteen of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision and the rest forecast no change.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao may hold off on further monetary tightening after Brazil and Russia lowered borrowing costs in recent weeks and China kept rates unchanged since July amid Europe's debt crisis and a faltering U.S. recovery. The Reserve Bank today cut India's growth estimate to 7.6 percent from 8 percent for the current fiscal year and reiterated inflation would slow to 7 percent by March 31.

"The damage that rate increases are starting to inflict on the economy is getting larger," said Sanjay Mathur, Singapore- based head of research and strategy for non-Japan Asia at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. "It's now time to assess the impact of the previous rate hikes on the economy and that's a very appropriate stance."

Rate Swaps

The yield on the 7.80 percent government note due 2021 dropped 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 8.69 percent as of 11:30 a.m. in Mumbai. That is the lowest level since Oct. 5 and the biggest decline since Dec. 7, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. One-year interest-rate swaps slid the most this month as traders pared bets for rate increases.

The Reserve Bank also decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit rate, granting lenders the ability to set their own interest rates on deposits with immediate effect. Still, banks will have to offer a uniform rate on deposits up to 100,000 rupees irrespective of the amount in the account, the RBI said in its monetary policy review.

"Growth is showing clear signs of slowing and the global turmoil is becoming a risk," Rupa Rege Nitsure, a Mumbai-based economist at the state-owned Bank of Baroda, said before the decision. "The policy objective can't be to kill growth with too much tightening while trying to tame inflation."

Record Increases

Subbarao has increased the central bank's benchmark rate by 375 basis points since mid-March 2010, the fastest round of increases since the central bank was established in 1935, Bloomberg data show.

That's curbing consumer demand. Manufacturing in India grew in September at the slowest pace in 2 1/2 years, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

India's automakers on Oct. 10 cut their car sales growth forecast for a second time this year as companies including Honda Motor Co. and Ford Motor Co. faced lower demand.

Officials from China to South Korea have refrained from raising rates in recent weeks to gauge whether slowing economic growth will dissipate price pressures. In Brazil, the central bank opted to lower its target Selic rate this month, the second cut in less than two months.

Subbarao said Oct. 12 that inflation must cool before India's central bank can start easing monetary policy. The Reserve Bank's next policy review is due Dec. 16.

BRIC Inflation

India's benchmark wholesale-price inflation was 9.72 percent in September, staying above 9 percent since the start of December. By comparison, consumer prices rose 7.3 percent in Brazil, 6.1 percent in China and 7.2 percent in Russia.

"The rupee's decline is making imports costlier," and may add to price pressure, Suresh M. Hegde, Mumbai-based head of finance at Videocon Industries Ltd., an Indian maker of washing machines and air conditioners, said in an Oct. 19 interview. "We have no option but to pass on this burden to consumers." He didn't elaborate.

The rupee's drop is in line with other emerging-market currencies and "with falling global commodity prices partly offset by rupee depreciation, the risks to inflation projections are now balanced," the central bank said in a report yesterday.

Inflation will start to fall from December and ease to 7 percent by March before moderating further in the first half of the new fiscal year starting April 1, the central bank said today. Beyond December, "if the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not be warranted," the bank said.

Budget Deficit

Even so, the central bank said the government's "large" budget deficit has been an "important source" of demand pressure. "Clearly, the impact of tightening monetary policy has been diluted by the expansionary fiscal position, which is a sub-optimal outcome," the central bank said.

"Rate increases have not had the desired impact on inflation as fiscal policy stays loose," Amol Agrawal, a Mumbai-based economist at STCI Primary Dealer Ltd., said before the decision. "Monetary policy alone can't curb price gains. The government needs to cut its budget deficit too."

India's budget shortfall may widen to as much as 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in the year ending March 31, more than the government's 4.6 percent target, because of higher spending on fuel and food subsidies, Agrawal said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Stephanie Phang at sphang@bloomberg.net

Higher Borrowing Means RBI to Buy First Bonds in Nine Months: India Credit

2011-10-04T13:31:00.001+05:30

Higher Borrowing Means Central Bank to Buy Bonds: India Credit

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- India's central bank may buy bonds for the first time in nine months to cap rising yields as outflows from national savings accounts forced the government to increase debt sales.

The Reserve Bank of India will probably acquire 500 billion rupees ($10.2 billion) of notes, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Benchmark 10-year yields were steady at 8.54 percent, the highest level since 2008, after the Finance Ministry said last week it would borrow 32 percent more than its 1.67 trillion rupee target in the six months to March. Yields have climbed 60 basis points in 2011, the most in Asia after Vietnam, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is struggling to trim the budget deficit to a targeted four-year low of 4.6 percent of gross domestic product as India's economy slows. Further deterioration in the government's finances may "weigh" on the nation's BBB- debt rating, already the lowest among the world's largest emerging economies, according to Fitch Ratings.

"The additional borrowing was quite a shock and the RBI will consider buying bonds to support liquidity in the system," Vivek Rajpal, a fixed-income strategist at Nomura, Japan's biggest brokerage, said in an interview yesterday. "The end game will be to cap yields."

Savings Plans

The government will sell 2.2 trillion rupees of bonds in the six months ending March after having raised 2.5 trillion rupees in the first half of the fiscal year, R. Gopalan, secretary at the Department of Economic Affairs, told reporters in New Delhi on Sept. 29.

Individual investors withdrew 61.9 billion rupees between April and August from small-savings deposit plans such as those run by post offices, after adding 238.56 billion rupees in the year-earlier period, official data show. The state-run savings programs offer a return of 8 percent, while State Bank of India, the nation's biggest lender, offers 9.25 percent interest on one-year deposits, according to its website.

"The government-run savings plans have lost their attractiveness due to lower returns and that's the reason there is a huge shortfall," Anoop Verma, a Mumbai-based fixed-income trader at Development Credit Bank Ltd., said in an interview yesterday. "Drying up of financing sources is forcing the government to turn to market borrowings."

Debt Supply

India's bonds fell for a sixth straight day yesterday, after the yield on benchmark 10-year debt concluded a fifth quarterly increase on Sept. 29. The Reserve Bank bought 75 billion rupees of government debt in January in auctions as part of a program to purchase 480 billion rupees of securities, according to its website. Alpana Killawala, a spokeswoman for the Reserve Bank, declined to comment on bond repurchases.

"The RBI will have to come back and buy bonds from the open market," Prasanna Patankar, the Mumbai-based head of fixed-income trading at primary dealer Securities Trading Corp. of India Ltd., said in an interview yesterday. "The supply of bonds is already quite daunting and with more supplies coming, we think the yield on the 10-year bonds will move to as high as 8.65 percent this month."

The cost of insuring the debt of State Bank of India against default has more than doubled in 2011. Five-year credit- default swaps on the lender, viewed as a proxy for the nation, were at a two-and-a-half-year high of 363 basis points today, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in privately negotiated markets.

Deficit, Rupee

The swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

India's budget deficit may widen to 5.5 percent of GDP in the year ending March from 4.7 percent in the previous 12 months, Andrew Colquhoun, Hong Kong-based head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch, said in an interview.

The decision to issue more debt is "within the scope of expectations," Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign and international public finance ratings at Standard & Poor's, said in an e-mail yesterday.

The outlook for the deficit may drive the rupee lower, according to Standard Chartered Plc. The currency weakened for a third day today, dropping 0.2 percent to 49.25 per dollar.

"Investors will definitely be worried about the government missing its deficit target," Priyanka Kishore, a Mumbai-based currency strategist at Standard Chartered, said in an interview yesterday. "If there are concerns about the rating outlook, it would be negative for the currency."

Kishore predicts the rupee will drop to 49.80 by March.

'Much Larger'

India's bond market can absorb the increase in the borrowing plan, according to Pramerica Asset Managers, a unit of Newark, New Jersey-based Prudential Financial Inc. The economy expanded 7.7 percent in the three months ended June, the least in six quarters, according to government data. The size of the economy has grown 62 percent since 2008 to 73 trillion rupees in the year ended March, according to official data.

"The economy today is much larger than it used to be, say, three years ago," Mahendra Jajoo, the Mumbai-based head of fixed-income investments at Pramerica Asset, said in an interview yesterday. "There may be some problems, but the system can absorb this kind of borrowing program."

Higher Yields

The difference in yields between Indian notes due in a decade and similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries was 674 basis points, or 6.74 percentage points, today, the highest since April 1999, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bonds of the South Asian nation have returned 3.7 percent so far this year, according to HSBC Holdings Plc., which tracks 10 local- currency debt markets in the region. Indonesian securities earned the most at 14.4 percent.

Investors will show their disapproval of the higher borrowing program by selling Indian debt during the rest of 2011, according to Mumbai-based Yes Bank Ltd.

"There will be pressure on the bond yields due to much larger supply of paper than expected," Shubhada Rao, the Mumbai-based chief economist at Yes Bank, said in an interview yesterday. "The yield on the 10-year bond may reach 8.6 percent soon."

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sandy Hendry at shendry@bloomberg.net

Stocks, Commodities Decline on Europe Debt Concerns; S&P Futures Pare Gain

2011-10-04T13:27:00.000+05:30

Stocks, Metals Fall on Europe Concern; U.S. Futures Pare Gains

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities dropped a third day, the euro touched the lowest level in more than a decade against the yen, while German government bonds climbed, on concern Europe's debt crisis will worsen. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures pared earlier gains.

The MSCI All Country World Index sank 1 percent at 8:25 a.m. in London, set for its lowest close since July 2010. S&P 500 futures trimmed a rally of as much as 0.7 percent, following a two-day drop that left the U.S. gauge within 1 percent of levels commonly seen as a bear market. Yields on German 10-year bunds dipped 10 basis points. S&P's GSCI Index declined 0.9 percent, paced by copper and oil. The euro traded at 100.97 yen, after earlier dropping to 100.76, the weakest since June 2001.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its global growth forecasts and predicted recessions in Germany and France. European finance ministers meeting yesterday considered "technical revisions" to a July deal for a second Greek bailout, fueling concern bondholders may have to take bigger losses on the nation's debt. Data today forecast to show U.S. factory orders stalled.

"Investors are focused on European sovereign debt, they're focused on European banks, and they're worried about the end game for Greece and the possible contagion to Italy and Spain, and right now that's trumping everything else," Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based global chief investment strategist for the IShares unit of BlackRock Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. His firm oversees $3.66 trillion as the world's largest asset manager. "The market is not likely to bottom until we see some signs of clarity in Europe."

Stocks Slump

About 34 shares fell for every one that gained on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which retreated 1.6 percent. Germany's DAX Index dropped 2.1 percent, France's CAC 40 declined 2.2 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 slipped 1.6 percent. Dexia SA, Belgium's biggest bank by assets, tumbled 32 percent after its board asked the company to solve its "structural problems."

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.8 percent. The gauge started the fourth quarter with a 2.6 percent drop yesterday and is down 21 percent for the year. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 1.1 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 2 percent, and the Kospi Index tumbled 3.6 percent in South Korea, where financial markets were closed for a holiday yesterday. China remains shut for the rest of the week.

Toyota Motor Corp. slipped 2.5 percent in Tokyo after Asia's largest automaker reported a 17 percent drop in U.S. sales. Hyundai Motor Co. and affiliate Kia Motors Corp. dropped at least 2.8 percent each after their sales gains missed analyst expectations. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. sank 4.5 percent as Japan's third-biggest shipping line by sales forecast a full- year net loss because of lower transport rates.

World Economy

The world economy will probably expand 3.8 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2012, compared with earlier predictions of 3.9 percent for 2011 and 4.2 percent for next year, Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson wrote in an Oct. 3 report. The brokerage lowered its forecast for earnings growth in Asia excluding Japan in a separate report today.

The S&P 500 slumped 2.9 percent yesterday to close at the lowest level since Sept. 8, 2010. The benchmark U.S. stocks gauge has dropped 19 percent since April 29, when it climbed to the highest level since 2008. A Commerce Department report today may show factory orders were little changed in August, after a 2.4 percent gain the prior month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries were little changed at 1.76 percent after dropping 16 basis points yesterday. The rate on 30-year bonds sank 19 basis points yesterday to the lowest level since January 2009 after the Federal Reserve bought $2.5 billion of longer-term debt. Thirty-year yields were three basis points higher at 2.75 percent today.

Japan's bonds rose, dragging 10-year yields down 2.5 basis points to 0.990 percent. The Ministry of Finance will sell 2.2 trillion yen ($28.7 billion) of 10-year bonds today.

Greek Debt

The euro traded at $1.3182 after earlier touching $1.3164, the weakest since Jan. 13. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble opposed moves to increase the scale of the euro rescue fund, damping speculation of a breakthrough in talks to quell the crisis.

Speaking to reporters early today after chairing a meeting of euro finance chiefs, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker gave no details about a possible recalibration of the debt exchange for Greece. The July agreement had called for investors to contribute 50 billion euros ($66 billion) to a 159 billion-euro rescue.

'Disorderly Default'

"If we don't get a resolution in Greece, we may see a disorderly default," said Koichi Kurose, chief economist in Tokyo at Resona Bank Ltd. which oversees the equivalent of $68 billion in assets. "The politicians are all over the place."

The Australian dollar dropped as much as 0.8 percent to 94.56 U.S. cents. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent today, citing the threat of Europe's sovereign-debt crisis and the outlook for global growth. The currency pared losses after data today showed the nation's trade surplus in August was the widest since June 2010.

The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds against non-payment jumped, with the Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan increasing 11 basis points to 275, Credit Agricole SA prices show. That's set for its highest close since May 1, 2009, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc., and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market.

Oil, Metals

Oil for November delivery dropped 1.3 percent to $76.64 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell yesterday to the lowest settlement in more than a year. U.S. crude inventories climbed for a second week, an Energy Department report tomorrow may show. Libya aims to raise production to more than 500,000 barrels a day by the end of this month, according to Nuri Berruien, the chairman of state-run National Oil Corp., in Tripoli yesterday. The nation pumped 100,000 barrels a day in September.

Three-month copper declined 1.9 percent to $6,859.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, set for a fifth day of declines. Prices pared losses of as much as 4 percent. Nickel dropped 1.5 percent to $18,733 a ton, trimming a slump of as much as 2.8 percent.

Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.8 percent to $1,671.48 an ounce, a fourth day of gains, while cash silver rallied 1.5 percent to $30.8750 an ounce. The turmoil in Europe will take away "some of the upside" to commodity prices, not reverse it, Goldman Sachs said in a report today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Shelley Smith at ssmith118@bloomberg.net

ACCUMMULATE

2011-09-09T10:11:00.005+05:30

BUY ON EVERY DIP: ALL TIME GOOD SCRIPES

VIP
CHAMBAL
BATA
TATA COFFEE
BF UTILITY

SHORT TERM BEST BUYS:
DELTA CORP
EVERONN

GOOD MORNING

2011-08-26T10:16:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

I welcome my new blog followers. Wish you all prosperity through my blog.

Yesterday, the August series of F & O expired and September series opened.

Our market has declined to almost the level I predicted, now it will give some bounce back may be from today or monday but use the bounce to exit or book profit or go short but certainly no new buys. I will let you all know when the buying opportunity comes. No intra day trades please.

Market after the bounce will decline and reach almost to the level of 14577 and it will be a crucial level to judge the further trend, if it bounces after taking support here and crosses 17000 level again then there will not be fear of much downside but the call should be taken at the level and not now looking at the country specific and the global factors affecting the market.

Precious metal is a good investment opportunity on each decline in their prices. Gold better than silver. Silver may face resistance around INR 70000 and Gold at INR 30000 but Gold has steep uptrend. Declines should be used for buying.

More later,

Wish you all a very good day,

Regards,

Jagruti.

GOOD MORNING

2011-08-09T10:41:00.000+05:30

Hi friends,

I am writing to you after 13th July, for the first time. Below is still appearing that post which can say how true technical analysis can be if understood well !!

Sensex wiped off 100% rise which happened after 28th May 2010. It is standing at that same level and declining further. Little bounces will come as people will square off short positions. Those bounces can be used for intra day tradings. Today's intra day calls are SBI and LARSEN. Do not carry forward longs.

Long term market is yet bad. It will go to 15300, 14600 too. Let us see what happens. Bull run which had set in since March 09 till Nov 10 is just retraced 25% hence it can not be said that we are bearish but do not buy for investment yet. Keep trading and book profits.

Have a nice day,

More later,

Jagruti.