J.A.R. - Just Another Republican...

I'm Back, I Think

2013-08-21T13:14:00.002-05:00

After just short of 39 months of silence, and far too much good-natured mocking from a reporter friend about how I'm a "disaffected Republican", I figured I'd see if this thing was still around. And it is. So maybe I'll have more to say. Stay tuned...

Competing "Blowout" Narratives

2008-05-30T11:07:00.003-05:00

Last Friday, Politico ran a story suggesting that McCain might win in a blowout (50+ electoral vote margin) in November. The piece, based largely on interviews with political consultants and the like, started with the near-certain argument that any Republican but McCain would have been a dead man walking. They then assume that McCain will carry nearly every state that Bush carried in 2004, save for perhaps Iowa and Colorado, which he'll compensate for by winning New Hampshire and Michigan and/or Pennsylvania.

It took Democrats nearly a week to counter this narrative, but yesterday Bob Beckel penned a column for RCP arguing that while it'll be a blowout, it will be an Obama blowout. A side note to whoever asked Beckel to write this piece: pick someone with a little more credibility than Walter Mondale's campaign manager; I'll grant that the man knows something about blowouts, but only from the receiving end. Beckel's argument is that McCain will lose far more states Bush won than just Iowa and Colorado, and won't find the votes to make up for those losses.

I'm not sure who's right. Obviously, I'm hoping that the consultants quoted in the Politico's story are. But I have a sense that one of these two is correct - this won't be a squeaker like '04 was but will rather be a pretty clearcut affair. Call it a 60% chance of a 50+ vote margin either way/40% less than 50 votes. If I get time soon, I'll try and analyze where I think those votes are going.

This is Getting Pathetic?

2008-05-27T11:14:00.005-05:00

We all know Obama's gaffe-prone; the media tries to cover up the smaller ones, and Obama turns the bigger ones (e.g. no preconditions for negotiations with Iran) into policy papers.

But being a naive idiot is one thing - rewriting history is an entirely different animal. And that's what he's done this time, claiming that his uncle (or maybe it's his grandfather - the article says both, but it's highly unlikely that both were actually involved in the war) was traumatized by the experience of liberating Auschwitz. Hey Barry, your Gramps served with Uncle Joe Stalin's 322nd Rifle Division? Or you're a misspeaking idiot? Which is it?

CBS doesn't even bother to fact-check the story, rather just spits out the contradictions about grandfather and uncle without referring to Wikipedia and its notation that the Soviets overran the camp. But then again (and this one's stuck in my craw all weekend), when the Tribune refers to a veteran of the 2nd Airborne Unit in a story - Unit?! What the hell is a unit? - why should I expect anything from the media anymore? All of this media idiocy and Obama BS is heightened against the Memorial Day backdrop.

UPDATE: The plot thickens! A closer reading of CBS's story causes this speed-reader to realize that Obama claims his uncle liberated Auschwitz. One problem. According to this Tribune article from last March, Obama's (white, Kansas-born) mother was an only child. No uncle. But of course Barry's daddy could have had an uncle fighting in World War II, and perhaps liberating another concentration camp with an American brigade as he says. Another problem. Barry's father is, as we all know, Kenyan. Had he had a brother, he would have had to have fought with British forces, as a member of one of the Empire's African Divisions. These forces were either commited to Africa for the entirety of the war or sent to Burma. No Kenyan uncle in Europe. So it's not just that he misspoke - he didn't mean Dachau, for example (which US forces did liberate) rather than Auschwitz - he flat-out invented an uncle. The Obama family is certainly a casualty of this campaign; first grandma's tossed under the bus in his race speech, now he's inventing uncles out of thin air. Especially against the backdrop of Memorial Day, on which we memorialize the sacrifice of real Americans, this story is so jarring that the media may be forced to take notice.

UPDATE 2: A lot of good stuff on this is getting compiled over at Hot Air - including the fact that he peddled some version of this BS back in 2002. Check it out.

(h/t LGF)

Kossacks Drinking Koolaid

2008-05-23T14:56:00.003-05:00

The title isn't anything new, of course, just that when Dear Leader Kos himself speaks, they don't even bother to follow a link and check it out. Case du jour: Ohio polling. Kos busily hypes up a new SurveyUSA Ohio poll showing Obama with a 9 pt advantage over McCain and pointing to the trend lines from a previous poll (McCain +2 at 47-45) as evidence that Obama is uniting the party; he also points out that this is a poll of likely voters.

Now that struck me as odd - I haven't been poll-watching too closely of late, but I didn't think SUSA (an automated phone polling company) surveyed LVs, only registered voters. A quick visit to RealClearPolitics' Ohio polling page showed me to be correct. It also showed that Kos omitted any mention of a few other polls: a Quinnipiac poll of over 1200 RVs conducted during roughly the same period showing McCain up 4, and a Rasmussen poll of LVs (single-day, too so mostly unaffected by the news) showing McCain up 1. What's especially galling about this is that all one needed to do is follow a link provided by Kos to SUSA's site to see that indeed, it was a poll of registered voters. Currently the story's got 163 comments, not one of which seeks to correct Dear Leader's misstep. Listen, I'm not expecting these folks to get a whiff of reality anytime soon - but please, can they at least get the small stuff right?

Also, for what it's worth, I have to think that those Rasmussen numbers are closer to the truth than the SUSA numbers. Why? Well for one thing SUSA's crosstabs indicate that 17% of black voters in the sample support McCain. Case closed. Bunk poll. Interestingly, Rasmussen's poll also indicates that Obama has higher unfavorables, and lower favorables, than McCain in the Buckeye state.

This isn't to say that McCain is going to win Ohio, which he basically must do to win the White House, just that he's probably in a better position to do so than Obama. After all, Ohio Democrats are the sort that Obama has such trouble with - the kind who might confuse white wine and vinegar (and for whom screw-top bottles of vino are no longer just edging into acceptability) - which is to say blue collar types. Sure the state of the economy as portrayed by the media helps Obama, but it may not be enough if he comes across as a guy you wouldn't want to have a beer with (a metric I personally dislike, but appreciate when Democrats are dumb enough to nominate Obama-types).

How Long/Short is Congress's Institutional Memory?

2008-05-16T09:17:00.002-05:00

Whereas the Republican-controlled 109th Congress was derided as the "do-nothing Congress," Pelosi & Co. seem determined to make the 110th the "do-something Congress" - even if nothing would be better. Lately, these do-something efforts in the House are aimed at undercutting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and have been conducted with a surprising amount of cleverness. To begin with, they've split the war funding into three parts: the funding itself, a much-hyped GI Bill, and the obligatory sop to the far-left mandating withdrawal.

On the funding portion, Republicans too showed that they could play cute, and borrowed a play from the Audacity of Hope (or at least Obama's play book): 132 Republicans voted present, protesting the fact that they had not been permitted to offer alternative legislation.

But the real cute part of this whole legislative mess is the benefits for veterans, a new "GI Bill" extending educational benefits for those returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. To fund these programs, an estimated $52 billion over ten years, Democrats could have slashed discretionary spending elsewhere - the farm bill, for example. Instead, they chose to further burden their favorite target: the successful. Thankfully, unlike Obama's bone-headed conception of wealthy, they set the bar at a reasonable (though still outlandish in principle) $500,000 for individual filers and $1,000,000 for joint filers. The tax hike is also a relatively insignificant .47 percent.

But it's the principle of the matter. Congress has used taxes on the wealthy before to fund wars. Perhaps most notably, in 1898 Congress passed a 3% excise tax on telephone usage. In that day and age, such a tax was a tax on the wealthy. Unlike this tax, the Spanish-American telephone tax was likely proposed without the "screw the rich" intent - after all, no one can dare claim that the country's elite sat out the war (just look at the roster of the 1st US Volunteer Cavalry Regiment). But the telephone tax holds a lesson for Congress, and questions its institutional memory, as it wasn't repealed until 2006.

Now I dare not expect too much of Congress; it's unlikely that most remember when the Spanish-American war was fought, or where - though I do hope they can name our opponent and perhaps (though it may be a stretch) the conflict's casus belli. But they should clearly remember that such taxes outlive their usefulness by years, decades, even centuries, and should be levied carefully. Some enterprising Republican in the Senate (Gordon Smith or Susan Collins, perhaps, who are both moderates and facing stiff reelection battles) should attach an amendment putting a sunset on this tax, or perhaps even an annual renewal.

Democrats also engage - shocker - in some martial relativism here. While all wars are no doubt hell, as Sherman said, they aren't all the same. Congress enacted the GI Bill after the war to reward a whole generation of American men, many of whom had been drafted into the service (though the vast majority went willingly). In contrast, all of the men and women serving in Iraq and Afghanistan are volunteers. I know, not a distinction I expect 435 of our not so bright and hardly best to grasp, but still.

32 Republicans voted in favor of the bill; many of those are facing tough battles for reelection and represent moderate districts where supporting the troops likely outweighs fiscal responsibility. Some of those 32, however, are just asshats such as Don Young, who no doubt understands that the revenue raised by this tax is fungible and could be diverted to...a bridge to nowhere? If it survives the Senate in its present form (where it'll put McCain in a hell of a bind), Bush will likely veto in the name of fiscal responsibility and urge Democrats to find the money elsewhere. Whether or not the veto gets overridden will likely be a result of two things: whether Boehner and the Republican leadership chooses to whip the vote and keep their party in line, and if not whether individual Republican representatives put fiscal responsibility over a vulnerability to cheap attacks that they don't support the troops (by Democrats and the media who keep twisting the knife in the back of the troops at every opportunity they get).

Poll: McCain, Obama, and Jewish Voters

2008-05-15T18:08:00.002-05:00

An eight-day old Gallup poll had some interesting findings that I hadn't seen analyzed anywhere else: Obama leads McCain 61%-32% among Jewish voters. I'm hard-pressed to believe this - after all, Obama has been making some pretty absurd, patently anti-Israeli statements (e.g. Israel's a "constant sore"). If McCain can make serious inroads into Obama's support among Jewish voters, it'll help him put some additional states into play. Given Obama's history of outrageous comments, such inroads may not be out of the question.

Mississippi Musings

2008-05-15T10:29:00.003-05:00

Almost unreported by the media on Tuesday night was Democrat Travis Childers' special election victory in Mississippi's First Congressional District. Democrats were ebullient, as well they should have been: Bush carried the First with 59% of the vote in 2000, and 62% in 2004; former Representative Roger Wicker (picked to serve out the remainder of retired Senator Trent Lott's term) won with 66% in '06 and a mind-boggling 79% in '04, when he didn't even have a real Democratic opponent.

What does this suggest? I'll take the optimistic position that it's a special election, that it means little or nothing. Only 107,239 votes were cast Tuesday night; Childers' win, by a margin of 57,800 votes, was a comfortable, though hardly earth-shattering 53.9%. Those 57,800 (a suspiciously nice number?) would admittedly have swung the election to the Democrat in the low-turnout '06 midterm, but in 2004 a swing of that magnitude would have reduced Wicker's margin of victory to a still-impressive 58%. Put another way, Childers received just 8,626 votes more than the Democratic candidate did in 2006. All in all, the numbers are a mixed message. Specials are all about turnout and some combination of pissed off/fired up Democrats, disaffected independents, and dispirited Republicans gave Childers the win. But in this "who knows what it says but it ain't earth-shattering," sky-is-partly-cloudy, glass-is-half-full analysis, I'm something of a voice in the wilderness.

Perhaps the dominant interpretation (voiced by Fred Barnes on Fox News last night) is that Mississippi's special election was driven by a rejection of Republicanism. It's plausible, given that this wasn't a truly anti-incumbent election, but rather may have been an anti-incumbent party election, which could be bad news. Yet while Mississippians sent a Democrat to Congress, McCain remains highly competitive with Obama nationally. Just how deep the GOP's woes are remains unclear, though retiring Representative Tom Davis (R-VA) released a 20-page memo outlining the dismal state of the party (in which he created a furor by using Obama and tar baby in the same paragraph, god forbid); this, of course, comes less than ten days after Newt Gingrich's widely-reported and similarly apocalyptic warnings.

The state of the party deserves a post in itself; right now I'm interested only in the state of the state (of Mississippi). Does Travis Childers' victory suggest that Mississippi is in play in November? This is a state that Bush carried easily, with 59% in '04 and 58% in 2000. On the face of things, it's a stretch to argue that Obama can make up that sort of deficit to put the Magnolia State in his column. But Mississippi also has one of the largest proportions of African-Americans in the nation - 36%, or using '06 census estimates from National Journal, 1,053,615(.48...) black voters. If all of the voting-age members of this demographic came out and voted, Obama would be in a much better place. If Childers' victory is indicative of widespread dissatisfaction among independents, and demoralized Republicans, it could be within the realm of possibility (thought at its outer reaches) that Obama could win. Perhaps more darkly still, if Obama wins, does Democratic Senate candidate Ronnie Musgrove win as well? Upsets like that are the sort that will give Democrats what I fear most: a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Arrogant and Nonsensical

2008-05-13T10:57:00.003-05:00

This particular combination often takes talent, and seems to be exclusively the purview of elected Democrats (see: Obama, Barack: Gaffes: "bitter"). This morning, a rank-and-file Obamamaniac got in on the act with this letter to the editor:

I find it difficult to understand the reasoning behind voters choosing Hillary Clinton on the Indiana ballot in order to defeat Barack Obama.

Voting is a privilege and if voters can't take the process seriously, I wish they would stay away from the voting booth.

Republicans should be embarrassed by this fiasco and so should all the talk show hosts who have encouraged it.

If Clinton wins the election, the same voters will have themselves to blame, but it will be too late to do anything about it. I find Obama a refreshing voice in this election and a man I can support to be president. I find Clinton a woman who will say and do anything to win the election. I find her disingenuous and untrustworthy.

I feel Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. has contributed to this mess because of his ego and his legacy will be forever tarnished.

I am proud to be an American, but I am ashamed of how little some Americans value the election process.

—Gloria Loehr

Ummm...? Choosing to defeat Barack Obama? They can't choose to support a candidate they believe better supports their values? Voting for a candidate with less than a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination isn't taking voting seriously? Hordes of college students flocking to the polls and voting for "Change" is taking voting seriously?

The arrogance is overwhelming. The cogency is utterly absent. It's possible that Ms. Loehr is venting primarily at those Republicans who crossed the aisle to keep Hillary in the race, but she fails to make that distinction thus portraying herself as a raging ignoramus. I imagine the Tribune was having some fun when they chose to print this one.

Noteworthy and Under-Reported

2008-05-13T10:19:00.002-05:00

The Marines - and all the other branches of the armed services - exceeded their April recruitment goals. Even in a three-paragraph article, AP puts into play the inevitable Democratic talking point: "Recruiting is easier in a slow economy." That being said, the economy isn't as slow as AP would like to believe; perhaps improving conditions on the ground are causing young Americans to once again consider serving their country?

[I first caught this in the Tribune this morning, but couldn't find it on their website; the first Google News searches I ran yielded some interesting and irrelevant results]

Only in North Carolina?

2008-05-07T16:50:00.004-05:00

I'll try not to say too much about yesterday's presidential primaries (a promise I intend to break promptly in my next post), but I'll shine some light on other items of interest.

North Carolina had a full slate electoral contests this year - the presidential nomination, of course, but also contests for the two parties' nods for Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and a whole slew of down-ticket offices (around here, even officials such as the Commissioners of Insurance, Labor, and Agriculture are elected, which presumably asks a lot of voters).

None of that has anything to do with this however: a candidate for the State House, Stan Morse, arguing that his challenger was more electable (to say nothing of "better looking and smarter"), endorses his opponent and goes so far as to make a preemptive concession speech and campaign on his supposed opponent's behalf. The voters, however, were not having any of it and simply renominated Morse with nearly 55% of the vote.

Only in North Carolina? Perhaps not, but it's certainly amusing.

Two additional, tangential notes: first off, for all things political in the state, there's no better source than the Raleigh News & Observer's blog Under the Dome. Second, the N&O should be congratulated - their reporting on state and local elections provides an incredibly detailed accounting of voting, including maps of geographic distribution and turnout data. I wish every publication was this committed covering elections.

I'm Back

2008-05-07T16:46:00.001-05:00

Yes, again, I'm back. For an indeterminate length of time. To produce an unspecified and entirely random number of "intellectual" "gems" for you to admire. Enjoy!

More Veep Speculation

2008-03-29T10:02:00.003-05:00

In his weekend column, Bob Novak suggests that former Congressman, US Trade Representative, and OMB Director Rob Portman is somewhere near the top of the McCain campaign's VP list. As Novak says,

"Portman's background is legislative (House Republican leadership), executive (George W. Bush's Cabinet), diplomatic (U.S. trade representative) and economic (Office of Management and Budget director). He comes from a swing state (Ohio), is young enough (52) to contrast McCain and conservative enough (89 percent lifetime American Conservative Union rating)."

I see the argument, and again I think that McCain's not forced to pick a governor because of the absence of governing experience on the Democratic side. Also, we have to assume he's vetted and thus free of any skeletons in the closet.

Wow

2008-03-28T20:18:00.000-05:00

Davidson's something special, that's all I can say.

Electorate Muddled on Obama's Religion

2008-03-28T10:12:00.002-05:00

The Wright flap would seem to indicate, as in 2x4 across the face indicate, that Obama's a Christian. Apparently 1 in 10 voters don't read the news and still think he's a Muslim (that includes 10% of Democrats).

Wright himself is a mixed bag - a new poll suggests his disgusting comments don't actually hurt Obama - but the AP would have us believe that faith isn't exactly helping him either.

Yikes.

Dean Tries To End This Party Early (& Other News)

2008-03-28T09:22:00.004-05:00

On Good Morning America today, Howard Dean tried to lay down the law, announcing that he wants superdelegates to make a decision by July 1.

Personally speaking, I think it will be decided by then - unless Hillary somehow puts together a late-season run which I view as increasingly unlikely. Among other things, some of the as yet-uncommitted supers can probably be be put in the Obama column; here in North Carolina, Congressman Mel Watt (chair of the Congressional Black Caucus) is almost a sure-thing Obama super, yet hasn't officially endorsed. Even the letter from her moneybags supporters to Pelosi, chastising her for suggesting that supers should back the pledged delegate leader, may not save her if it's not close (this merits a story in itself...).

But Dean didn't say, at least not this morning, what others in the party have been repeating in recent days: supers should not override the "will" of the electorate - basically refuting the Clinton supporters. If the supers do? Goody. But again, doubtful. What's interesting is in that Politico piece, both Pelosi and TN Governor Phil Bredesen are quoted; might Bredesen be making a play for the #2 spot? Chris Dodd has also urged the party to find a way to end this mess...("I know! Nominate me!").

Speaking of Obama picking up supers, it's come out this morning that Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey has endorsed Mr. Change, and will join him on the bus tour. On the face of it, this is significant because Casey could give Obama some badly-needed help among the white working class voters who were decisive in Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas. But that's not the fun part about Casey's endorsement: the fun part is that Casey's father, Bob Casey Sr., was governor back in the 80s and 90s. He tried to get a speaking slot at the 92 Democratic Convention to voice his opposition to abortion. Organizers, probably pressed by the Clintons, refused. Revenge, unlike a Philly cheese steak, is a dish best served cold.

Choose Your Own Adventure

2008-03-27T09:12:00.004-05:00

Or at least your own Democratic outcome - RCP's Jay Cost has put together an HTML-based spreadsheet (Google Docs, perhaps?) which allows you to play with potential outcomes of the remaining Democratic nomination contests (super-delegate primary not included) and see how that affects Hillary's final vote total.

Me? I don't think she's going to lose Montana by 10 points, even though Chris Cillizza took a good look at that yesterday and Obama's clearly got the edge in the ground game; I also think that South Dakota's being closed will result in a closer race or even a Clinton victory (though the fact that SoDak's sole Rep, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, is an Obama supporter - thanks to CC for that tidbit as well - probably helps him in a big way).

Of course, Hillary's trying to move the goalposts, so to speak, once again, with surrogate/super-del Evan Bayh arguing a few days ago that the real metric should be comparing the electoral college votes of states Hillary won versus those Obama own. This is a new spin on Clinton's tired old "I won big states therefore I'm more electable" argument, which no one bought; whether the change of clothes will change perceptions remains to be seen. The irony, of course, is that a few years ago Hillary was all for doing away with the Electoral College and going to a popular election - popular election=popular vote=Obama's winning - thus she's switched sides. However, it's interesting to compare those numbers. So, using the Post's fun Electoral College tool, let's take a look.

Clinton's Wins:

Obama's Wins:

Clinton's got a 61 vote lead by this count, and isn't far from "victory," though the visual effect of this is to show just how many states Obama's won. How many of those he'd carry in a general election is a different question. If Clinton somehow pulls off a near-sweep in the remaining contests, that'll even at least the coloring but only narrow the popular vote and delegate counts (barring a resolution of Florida and Michigan). I'm not going to predict this one...

Intriguing Possibility

2008-03-25T09:46:00.002-05:00

A few weeks ago, the folks over at Hot Air brought attention to a new initiative of Mitt Romney's, an effort to become the "ideas factory" of the GOP and presumably pour some money into candidates. Can we say running again? (Which of course shows a lack of confidence in McCain's prospect). Any sort of unstructured group like a 527 is obviously ideal for Romney as he can dump unlimited amounts of his own cash in, though I didn't think he would.

I didn't think he would, at least until Chris Cillizza blogged about a new Republican soft money group calling itself the American Future Fund. It's not a 527 per se, rather it's a 501(c)(4), which according to CC means "it is a nonprofit that can engage in some political activity and is not required to disclose its donors, all of whom can give unlimited sums to the effort. It cannot directly advocate for or against a candidate and its pitch must be issue-centered." The emphasis is my own; issue-centered is exactly what Romney would be going for. Obviously, we don't know who's funding this group, but I immediately found myself wondering whether Mitt did indeed have a role.

That thought was strengthened when CC listed who was involved, a top-notch slate of Republican activists, most of whom were involved with Romney's campaign. It's entirely plausible that the ex-governor's behind this; he attempted something similar before his presidential campaign using his Commonwealth PAC, but that was limited. If he's behind the AFF, he can pick up some serious IOUs: IFF is on the air in Minnesota in support of threatened incumbent Senator Norm Coleman, and could do the same thing elsewhere.What's fascinating about this ad, as CC noted, is that it's issue-based; but it's not just issue-based, it plays up his record of bipartisanship in the Senate, an intriguing twist. Even if the NRSC had the money to go on the air up this early in the Gopher State, it'd either be attacks on Al Franken or pro-Coleman ads that might not play too well in such a purple state. The other value of this ad is that it puts Coleman astride the aisle, allowing for some pretty easy contrasts against Franken, who I think Merriam-Webster would define as left-wing extremist.

All in all, very curious.

Heh

2008-03-25T09:39:00.002-05:00

I awoke to the usual slew of emails today. One of them announced that an ACLU speaker was coming to speak here - but not just any ACLU speaker, a fellow named King Downing, head of the group's national Campaign Against Racial Profiling. CARP. Obviously I was amused, given that Merriam-Webster defines carp, when used as a verb, as "to find fault or complain querulously." How apropos.

What's Going On in Pennsylvania?

2008-03-20T23:56:00.004-05:00

The expectations game in Pennsylvania's April 22nd primary is already underway: Clinton's predicting (and needing) a win. Obama manager David Plouffe has also set her up for a win, saying she "should win by a healthy margin given where they start....We'll try and get as many votes and delegates as we can, but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania ...."

Demographically, the state favors Clinton. Western PA is heavily white, working class, and Catholic - think Steelers fans. Much of the central region is also white and middle- or lower-class. Those demographics are also the kind of voters who are leery of Obama's ties to Jeremiah Wright - a leeriness reflected in a new poll showing her up 51-37 among likely Democratic voters.

Clinton's chances are bolstered by the endorsement of Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, a pretty serious party boss who topped the ticket in a great year for Democrats in the state in 2006. An additional boost is the fact that the state's is a closed primary: only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary; the independents who have fueled Obama elsewhere won't be able to take part unless they re-register their affiliation (playing back into the import of that poll).

Obama should fare better in the eastern part of the state - urban Philly's minority voters as well as the wealthy, educated suburbs surrounding the City of Brotherly Love. The area is rife with classic swing voters: While delivering the state to Kerry in '04, they also sent their Republican representatives back to Congress; in '06, they voted solidly Democratic. So the fact that it's that area that has seen one of the largest increases in Democratic registration may be very telling; ironically, this was the territory Rendell carried en route to his primary victory in 2002 against now-Senator Bob Casey.

In one of the most interesting Keystone scenarios, a pair of state political observers make the argument that this primary replays that '02 gubernatorial between "the son and heir apparent of the former Governor Casey against the liberal, urban, upstart Rendell." Rendell won just ten of the state's 67 counties enroute to a 54-46 victory. Can Obama do it? Maybe. Wright's a cross he has to bear among increasingly suspicious voters outside of the guilt-ridden liberals who are his base. Philly's also got about a billion colleges and universities, meaning that if his campaign has its usual success in getting students to the polls, he could do pretty well there.

For Hillary, Pennsylvania may be do or die again - just like New Hampshire and then Ohio and Texas were do or die. Should he somehow win here, Obama may run the rest of the table. However, his prospects may have become complicated by Wright, reflected in developments like the poll in North Carolina that has his lead down to one; Allahpundit situated that poll in the larger picture of a campaign hemorrhaging support across the country. If he loses PA, and loses (or almost loses?) NC, it's all eyes to Indiana, where popular Senator Evan Bayh has endorsed Hillary. So, once momentum's tossed into the mix, there's an argument to be made that Pennsylvania could be do-or-die for either candidate [ed: this may not be entirely clear right now; perhaps I'll flesh it out later].

Another element that I haven't seen discussed anywhere is the cost of running a campaign in Pennsylvania. There are two major media markets - Pittsburgh and Philly - and a handful of smaller ones. Philly's DMA (designated media area), bleeding into New Jersey, is among the most expensive in the nation. Both Hillary and Obama have a ton of cash, but both will have to throw a ton of it into the state to pull out the W. We're not talking break-the-bank expenditures, but enough that whoever comes up short may wonder if they got their money's worth.

What of al-Sadr?

2008-03-20T23:48:00.002-05:00

Moqtada al-Sadr is one of the biggest players in Iraqi politics, a Shiite cleric with plenty of influence and a private army to boot. Yet he's been out of the limelight in recent months. A must-read article from the Journal explores the man and the present situation.

Uh-Oh Hillary

2008-03-20T23:29:00.004-05:00

Senator Clinton's campaign has been trying to make as much hay as possible out of Obama's ties to Jeremiah Wright. Those efforts stop now, as photos emerge of Bill Clinton and Wright together at a White House prayer breakfast in 1998; more damningly, Hillary's recently-released First Lady schedules indicate that she, too, was in attendance. Obviously Clinton & Co. are doing their best to spin this, noting that Clinton met and took photos with untold numbers of people in his eight years in the White House. While there's truth in that, Obama can push back hard.

This one should be fun...

UPDATE: The photo may have come from Obama' s campaign, and Hillary's camp is spinning hard.

Barack's Bracket

2008-03-20T23:19:00.003-05:00

Interested in who Obama likes in March? Take a look.

Is it all politics? Thoughts:

Wonder how Indiana feels about him throwing IU under the bus? I mean it's Clinton country, obviously, but UNC's clearly more important to him. After all, he only leads by 1 point there.
In fact, two Indiana schools lose - he toys with Notre Dame till the Sweet Sixteen, then sacrifices them to UNC as well.
He also likes Duke, a little bit, thus winning over some elite liberals down here.
After day 1, he's only missed three games: Wazzou/Winthrop, Purdue/Baylor, and USC/KSU. Not too shabby.

UPDATE: Is he fishing for Edwards' endorsement? As I noted months back, Edwards was endorsed by UNC legend Dean Smith.

More on Mac's Missteps

2008-03-20T21:09:00.003-05:00

The tempest in a teacup continues over McCain's true-in-the-real-world/fake-in-liberal-la-la-land statement that Iran is supporting al Qaeda. The Weekly Standard's got more evidence supporting the Senator here, here; HotAir adds their two cents as well.

Meanwhile, as noted by HotAir, the McCain campaign is standing by their candidate's statements;; for their part, Obama & Co. just keep digging. Elsewhere on the Left, Think Progress is so addled by their fantastic version of events that, as Michael Goldfarb points out, they actually agree with McCain. The Boston Globe does their part, and Threats Watch calls them out for this egregious statement:

Iran and the United States have a common interest in a stable Iraq. Tehran does not want a breakup of Iraq along ethnic lines that would strengthen the movement for an independent Kurdistan embracing its own restive Kurdish areas. Before cooperating to stabilize Iraq, however, Iran wants assurances that the United States will not use it as a base for covert action and military attacks against the Islamic Republic and will gradually phase out its combat forces.

Really? Really? Start by playing the peaceful Iran card, move on to accusing the US of being aggressive bullies seeking to start a war with Iran. Also, let's play fill-in-the-blank: "______ does not want a breakup of Iraq along ethnic lines that would strengthen the movement for an independent Kurdistan embracing its own restive Kurdish areas." I'm not entirely convinced that they didn't confuse Turkey and Iran...

Finally, I know Brendan Nyhan; I like Brendan Nyhan. But with regard to this particular story, his partisan blinders are on snugly. Nyhan conflates a truly egregious story from 2006, when the Chairman of the House Select Intelligence Committee, Democrat Silvestro Reyes, couldn't say whether al Qaeda was Sunni or Shiite, with McCain's comments. To Nyhan, the so-called gaffe suggests that McCain "apparently doesn't understand the most basic distinctions between Sunnis and Shiites (i.e. Iran is Shiite, Al Qaeda is Sunni)." It's getting to be a tired old meme that Sunnis and Shiites won't put aside their sectarianism in the face of a common enemy, and it shows a disturbing close-mindedness on the part of its adherents.

Econ Blogs

2008-03-20T20:59:00.002-05:00

Given the tumult of the market, and a general interest in economics without any real training, I'm drawn to economically-oriented blogs. A few of the good ones I've dug up in recent days:

Kudlow's Money Politics on National Review: National Review's economic editor, and CNBC host blogs on economically-related issues...
Kudlow's Money Politics: Same guy, different blog; this one is a bit more related to his show.
Greg Mankiw's Blog: Random Observations for Students of Economics: Mankiw's a Harvard professor as well as the former chair of President's Council of Economic Advisers. His focus is a bit more on economics students, particularly those at the graduate level, but that doesn't diminish the value of his insights.

Cool

2008-03-20T20:54:00.002-05:00

Perhaps it's been around for a while and I've just missed it, but meet ScotusWiki. Yes, it's a Supreme Court wiki...and it's pretty cool.

Maybe this just says something about me.