Jas Jain Commentary

Kamala Harris's Father, Donald Jasper Harris, Descendant of Slave-owner Hamilton Brown

2024-07-29T19:43:00.001-07:00

From Wikipedia:

Donald Jasper Harris, OM (born August 23, 1938) is a Jamaican-American economist and professor emeritus at Stanford University, known for applying post-Keynesian ideas to development economics. He is the father of Kamala Harris, vice president of the United States, and of Maya Harris, lawyer and political commentator.

The New York times described him as "a prominent critic of mainstream economic theory from the left".[2]

Donald Jasper Harris was born in Brown's Town, St. Ann Parish, Jamaica, the son of Oscar Joseph Harris and Beryl Christie Harris (née Finegan),[7][8] who were Afro-Jamaicans.[9] As a child, Harris learned the catechism, was baptized and confirmed in the Anglican Church, and served as an acolyte. His paternal grandfather, Joseph Alexander Harris, owned land. Harris's paternal grandmother told him that she was descended from Irish-born Hamilton Brown, who founded the local Anglican Church.
...
He took early retirement from Stanford in 1998 in order to pursue his interest in developing public policies to promote economic growth and advance social equity.^[19]^[20]^[21]

Also from Wikipedia:

Hamilton Brown (1776 – 18 September 1843) was an Ulster Scot plantation owner, slave owner and politician who resided in Saint Ann Parish, Jamaica, which he represented in the House of Assembly of Jamaica for 22 years. Brown founded the settlement of Hamilton Town in Saint Ann Parish, which was named after him.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_Brown

According to the Legacies of British Slave-Ownership at the University College London, Brown was awarded a payment under the Slave Compensation Act 1837 as a former slave owner in the aftermath of the Slavery Abolition Act 1833. The British Government took out a £15 million loan (worth £1.8 billion in 2024^[11]) with interest from Nathan Mayer Rothschild and Moses Montefiore which was subsequently paid off by the British taxpayers (ending in 2015).^[12] Brown was a prolific slave owner in the context of Jamaican society and was associated with a large number of claims, twenty-five in total, he owned 1,120 slaves most of them on sugar plantations in Saint Ann Parish and received a £24,144 (equivalent to £2.89 million in 2024^[11]) payment at the time.^[13]

Original Image at https://x.com/AuburnMartin/status/1818010987255185495?t=grx9-kSQeGZLPR-QUp2v5g&s=09

Powell Throws Cold Water on "Soft Landing"

2023-09-21T07:59:00.001-07:00

Kirk Note: Powell is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Powell Throws Cold Water on "Soft Landing" -- Re: Treasury Rates Near the Highest In 23 Years
Date:	Thu, 21 Sep 2023 14:49:45 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

Powell Throws Cold Water on "Soft Landing"

In his press conference yesterday.

Soft Landing is Wall Street propaganda to keep people in stocks as along as possible before recession becomes reality. It happens in all economic cycles, but this time it became a mantra.

When you are hovering over the Fiscal Cliff, Soft Landing is aerodynamically impossible, even Hard Landing is not likely, and Crash Landing is the likely scenario. And after that being buried under the rubble like the sinking of Titanic below the ocean.

How Would Crash Landing of the E-CON-omy Translate Into Stocks?

All the Magnificent 7--AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MFST, NFLX, NVDA, and TSLA--will go below 100; AAPL, AMZN and TSLA, below 50; and some to 25. A week earlier I positioned myself for the scenario that would unfold over the next 2 years. Fortune favors the brave!

Good luck to stock bulls. Stock Mkt exists to serve the Crooks and not the working people who put their savings.

Jas

--------------------------------------------

Tuesday, September 19, 2023 6:14 AM

Treasury Rates Near the Highest In 23 Years

Average over the maturity spectrum. The last time that the rates were at the current level was on 7/17/2007 and in the prior cycle it was in September 2000. Recessions and serious mkt declines followed within a few months.

When "soft landing" meets the Fiscal Cliff, watch out below.

Jas

-----------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, September 6, 2023 1:36 PM

With Inflation Remaining Higher for Longer, CASH would remain King for a Longtime

The 3&6 Month T-Bill rate, cash equivalent, hit a new high since the end of 2000, 22 years and 8 months, of 5.5%. 2-Year Treasury rate closed above 5%.

Stocks and long-term bonds would continue to underperform as the Fed Funds rate remains high.

Jas

Market Update - 5/31/23

2023-05-31T16:09:00.004-07:00

Five of twelve months into 2023, we have a split market with the Dow and the Russell 2000 indexes down while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indexes are up. All four remain down double digits from their ATHs (All Time Highs) also summarized in the same table.

Dow vs Oscillators

How about this... I'm roughly matching SPY YTD with only 57% in the markets! My Explore Portfolio stocks on their own are up roughly 15.8% YTD!

To see what stocks and ETFs are in my "Explore Portfolio" and get a full list of on my price targets to both take profits or buy more:

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At 8.6%, Inflation is the Highest since 1981 - Welcome Back Carter

2022-06-10T10:57:00.001-07:00

CPI-U Inflation came in at 8.6% in May with core inflation at 6.0% over the past year. The Energy Index rose 3.9% in May and was up 34.6% on the year. Gasoline rose another 4.1% in May and is up 48.7% on the year. If you think buying a new, more fuel efficient ICE auto or EV will solve your inflation problem, think again as new car prices are up 12.6%, if you can get one, while used cars soared 16.1% on the year.

Chart 1. One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - MAY 2022
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food being the largest contributors. After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the gasoline index rising 4.1 percent and the other major component indexes also increasing. The food index rose 1.2 percent in May as the food at home index increased 1.4 percent.

Chart 2. 12-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in May, the same increase as in April. While almost all major components increased over the month, the largest contributors were the indexes for shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, recreation, and apparel also increased in May.
The all items index increased 8.6 percent for the 12 months ending May, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 34.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2005. The food index increased 10.1 percent for the 12-months ending May, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981.

Gasoline Nearing Eight Dollars Per Gallon in Menlo Park California

Biden Barometer
Natural Gas, Oil Price & Stock Market Performance under President #46 Joe Biden

Sadly, I see little relief in the short term as gasoline prices have continued to soar in June. Hopefully you followed my newsletter advice to own some US Treasury Series I Bonds that are currently paying us 9.62% for new issues and I own some that are paying 12.76% due to their base rate of 3.0% plus inflation.

Current Rates for New & Older I Bonds
More about iBonds and how rates are calculated at Current Series I Bond Rates

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REPLAY OF 1929 - S&P 500 Target of 500

2021-10-26T12:32:00.001-07:00

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	REPLAY OF 1929
Date:	Wed, 20 Oct 2021 17:21:02 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

REPLAY OF 1929

Is bound to happen with the worst govt economic policies in history of mankind.

The only question is: When?

I feel very good about my S&P 500 target price of 500. And few people are better prepared to take full advantage of a govt abuse of power never before witnessed.

Jas

LRCX Lam Research Profit Taking Alert

2021-04-01T11:44:00.000-07:00

Hello Future Subscriber,

If you wish to subscribe, click here.

Today I SOLD 11 shares of Lam Research (LRCX charts) at $622.00 from the explore portfolio according to the buy/sell table on page 5 of the latest newsletter.

This decreased my explore portfolio position by 8.6% from 128 shares to 117 shares, all on house money, with a 5.3% portfolio weighting after this sell.

It is amazing that this $20,000 starting position in 1998 has generated $225,757 in cash from trading plus another $3,324 in dividends collected while growing to a total value of $73,759! Much of that cash was used to diversify into less volatile stocks to lower the risk of my Explore Portfolio.

If I had a crystal ball that would tell me absolute tops and bottoms, I could have made a lot more, but I'm satisfied with these results as Lam Research has helped me beat the S&P 500 over the short term and long term with what I believe is far less risk due to the cash generated from trading my winners! As of today, EVERY STOCK in my Explore Portfolio is a winner, even GE which looks like it is starting to breakout after consolidating recent gains after more than doubling last year's lows!

Remember, you can check my "Ancillary Data" link emailed with the last newsletter to see a full list of buys and sells for all my stocks. I will update that list for this trade and send a link to it with the next newsletter.

I will consider a new "auto buy" price target to repurchase these shares in the next newsletter. If we get a big pull-back before the next newsletter and I decide to buy shares sooner than currently listed, then I will send out a special email alert.

Likewise, I will also add a new "Auto Sell" target to take more profits in the next newsletter and send out a special email alert if I decide to sell more before then.

Remember, I take profits as my stocks go higher, even for my favorite stocks, as a way to limit individual stock risk. It does not mean I don't like the stock for the long term but it means I want cash generated from this profit taking to have available to buy any major declines for this or any of my other stocks I may like more during the next decline.

Congratulations🎈🎉💲 Like LRCX, my Explore Portfolio is currently at a new record high up 9.7% YTD with the Explore stocks up roughly 17.1% YTD while SPY is "only" up 6.9%! 📈🚀🏆

More LRCX Charts

Alert Email Reminder: I only send these alerts as a courtesy to show my updated charts and as a reminder should you get too busy to set your own buy and sell limit orders. These alerts are not guaranteed or promised. You should use the "Auto Buy and Sell Table" in the newsletter each month to update your limit orders at your broker if you wish to follow along with what I will do for the Explore Portfolio.

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this newsletter is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security. This newsletter is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice or legal advice. Copyright Kirk Lindstrom 2021.

best regards
Kirk Lindstrom
http://kirklindstrom.com/
Editor of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter"

2020 Election Conspiracy

2020-11-19T11:45:00.001-08:00

Two hardcore Trump supporters die and go to heaven.

God meets them at the pearly gates and asks if they have any questions.

One of them says, "Yes, what were the real results of the 2020 election and who was behind the fraud? "

God says, "My son, there was no fraud. Biden won the electoral college fair and square, 306 to 232."

After a few seconds of stunned silence, one of the Trump supporters turns to the other and whispers, "This goes higher up than we thought.."

Kirk's Investment Letter Service
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--       best regards  Kirk Lindstrom  http://kirklindstrom.com/  Newsletter: http://kirklindstrom.com/Newsletter.html  Facebook http://www.facebook.com/KirkLindstrom  Twitter http://twitter.com/KirkLindstrom

Two Cuts then the Drop Says Jas Jain

2019-10-19T11:25:00.001-07:00

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Stock Market Update: S&P 499 and NASDAQ-99 Peaked 15 Months Ago
Date:	Sat, 19 Oct 2019 16:49:22 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

MSFT has 4.2% weight in S&P 500 and 8.12% in NASDAQ-100. All the gain and more in these two major indexes for the past 15 months are due to 35% gain in MSFT. All the gains in DJI, S&P 500, and NASDAQ-100for the past 21 months have been due to four stocks, $MAGA.

It is safe to say that the Trump Bull Market ended more than a year ago. The Trump economy has slowed down to below 2% growth rate. If we see two more Fed rate cuts then the recession would follow shortly after that.

Jas

--------------------------------------------------------

June 25, 2019 1:12 PM

Stock Market Had Become a One-Trick Pony and That Pony Is Now Balking

MSFT highhandedly carried S&P 500 to a marginal new high adding 250 points of gain to the index this year alone. Approximately 10% of the gain in S&P 500 this year was due to MSFT, an amazing pony that raced to exhaustion. That pony today refuses to carry the weight and move forward.

Broad market peaked 17 months ago and four $MAGA stocks, or a 4-mule wagon, kept the market from entering bear market. One by one these mules, or ponies, balked until only one was left carrying the load in 2019. Three of these $MAGA stocks hit the trillion dollar market cap; first, Apple, then Amazon, and recently Microsoft. It has proven to be the kiss of death.

Fed rate cut is coming soooooooooon and that might prove to be Coup de grâce. Hoping that Trump would be able to save the market and the economy is fanciful dreaming, or dopey thinking.

History Rhyming

In 2000, three stocks, CSCO, MSFT, and INTC, hit market cap close to $600B and that proved to be the kiss of death for the three stocks and the market. Market caps of CSCO and INTC now are $250B and $210B, respectively, and MSFT has backed off the $1Tr mark. Even MSFT, the most successful of the three, has significantly under-performed the long-term US Treasuries since the market peak in 2000! Recommending US Treasuries to those addicted to stocks is a bad idea.

My long-standing target of 500 for S&P 500 would be realized in the next few years. Only a small % of people who have been in stocks for the past 25 years will get out of stocks with any gain. Those who make offerings to the Crooks deserve their just rewards.

Jas

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Jas Jain on Indian Economy

2019-09-16T18:54:00.001-07:00

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Re: Indian Economy
Date:	Mon, 16 Sep 2019 23:56:27 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

In addition to auto sales mentioned by my very smart nephew (appended), here are some other indicators that I have seen on business news channels:

1. Oil consumption down, YoY, for the first time.

2. Indian banks carrying the worst ratio of bad loans.

3. CPI is falling.

4. GDP growth rate is declining much more rapidly than China.

When, not if, the global depression begins Indian economy and political system would fair far worse than any other major economy. The debt situation in India is horrible and India is very dependent on foreign capital flows.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

From: Gaju (My Nephew)
Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2019 4:55 AM
Subject: Indian economy

I read your email subjecting Great Depression and Recession.

Indian economy is also going through a tough time. Sales of automobiles has fallen down consecutively for 9th month and total fall in sale of automobile is 30%. I am pretty sure the figures are correct because we manufacture Ferro Silicon when is an input in automobile industry. Initially we faced fall in prices then followed by fallen demand with fallen prices and now we see that many automobile companies have taken a shut down for month long. Another classical example is of the Parle-G company who has warned government of firing 10000 Labour if government fails to do necessary correction in the taxation.

What's your opinion about Indian economy.

Next Article: Investor Sentiment Charts for September 11, 2019

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Jas Jain Predicts S&P 500 below 500 by 2023

2019-08-12T13:44:00.001-07:00

Market Update for 8/12/19

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Message of the US Treasury Bond Market and Fed Rate Cuts to Come -- Re: Fed Policy & Recessions
Date:	Mon, 12 Aug 2019 20:06:35 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

Message of the US Treasury Bond Market and Fed Rate Cuts to Come

That the Trump Global Depression is on track. The most important thing to know about the Donald and his son-in-law is that they are both born-and-bred financial fraudsters. My mantra to a small group of people has been: Donald, the Destroyer, Will Deliver!

My record in bond market investment is second to none in the world. Finally, the stock market will follow my long-term bearish forecast with S&P 500 below 500 by 2023.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

May 21, 2019

Fed Policy & Recessions

After the economy has been in a recovery for some years Federal Reserve starts a process of three-step strangle:

Step 1: Starts to raise the Fed Funds Rate because the economy is doing great and would continue to do great as far as the eye can see.

Step 2: Stops to raise the rates. Before the last two recessions this happened 9-16 month before the recessions began. The peak rate remains flat for several months.

Step 3: Starts cutting the rate. Before the last two recessions this happened 3-6 month before the recessions began. This is as close to Fed ringing the warning bells, or fire alarm for the stock market bulls to leave the casino as we can expect.

Where Are We Today?

Step 2 occurred in December 2018 when the last rate rise took place and Fed later announced that it would not raise the rates any time soon. How about Step 3 or when would Fed start cutting the rate?

"The market is pricing in about a 48% chance of a rate cut by September and a 73% chance of a move lower before the end of the year. In fact, traders see a 31% chance of two cuts before 2019 comes to an end."

So, based on history and market expectations of a rate cut Fed would ring the warning bells this year and the next recession would begin during the first half of 2020.

Another sure warning sign for a recession to come is that the stock market has peaked. I leave that to the reader. Trump Recession 2020 is a near certainty. We would be able to say bye-bye to the Donald in 2021.

Jas

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Taking forecasts with a grain of sand, read Jas Jain's 2002 Bear Market Model

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A decent correction can't end until Jas tells us

how smart he is when the market is off its highs - Check!
and
how the market will crash a lot more..... Check!

Your mileage may vary....

2CS & CPC Charts Still Show High Fear Levels

2018-02-15T16:23:00.001-08:00

Kirk's Stock Market & Sentiment Charts for February 15, 2018.

This market update chart shows the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small cap index are now all back in the green for the year.

Click "Follow" at the bottom of this blog to get FREE email notifications from Google's Blogger when I post new updates.

This chart shows the depth of the correction for the major averages. How many who said they would buy after a 10% correction showed up? It looks like some sure did!

This chart shows the S&P 500 has rallied to its 50-day moving average, MA(50), after correcting down to its MA(200).

This chart shows the Dow corrected down to the dotted orange trend line before bouncing.

These sentiment charts show that even after a big recovery, there is still plenty of fear remaining.

Can you guess when I will draw the next green dot?

This inverted head & shoulder plot is very exciting.

Did you buy anything during the market decline? I did. Here is part of one of my special email alerts I sent my subscribers:

Click "Follow" at the bottom of this blog to get FREE email notifications from Google's Blogger when I post new updates.

To get my "Special Email Alerts" and the "Auto Buy Sell Table" where I list ahead of time what stocks to buy at what prices during this decline,

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Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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Currently at 2,620 Jas Jain's S&P500 Target is 500

2018-02-10T09:20:00.001-08:00

S&P 500 at 500 from 2620 (S&P500 Charts) would be an 81% decline!

Update from Jas Jain below.

From Kirk's Stock Market & Sentiment Charts for Feb. 9, 2018

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	FWC: Percent Change Since 2000 High for Three Major Stock Indexes
Date:	Sat, 10 Feb 2018 17:08:31 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

The graph is from an external source.

No Bubble and no parabolic move since 2013? And what is the verdict of history under these conditions??

Bulls have been thoroughly brainwashed by Wall Street propaganda commonly seen on CNBC.

My Target for S&P 500 IS 500.00 some time during 2020-22. And this would not be the worst in history.

Jas

PS: Propaganda is the most profitable business in American economy and politics. Victims are clueless about having been brainwashed. I call them dopes in denial.

Another Jas Jain Sell Signal

2017-12-04T09:21:00.001-08:00

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	"buy on the rumor and sell on the news." -- Re: Market Rhyming With 2007? -- Re: S&P 500 Earnings Stink (Graph)
Date:	Sun, 3 Dec 2017 18:21:02 +0000
From:	Jas Jai

-->

Five weeks ago I wrote: "...the most definitive signal would come when the Trump Tax Cut is passed--the classic buy on the rumor and sell on the news."

Looks like we got the sell signal. For better or worse, I am acting on the signal and increasing my bet on the short side of Scams (well-known large tech Scams are up 65% in a year!) and long side of Treasury bonds. 36+ years long bull market in bonds is alive and well.

"It would be a bad idea to be long on New Years' Eve. 2018 would be bad for the Donald and the bulls. Honeymoon would be over by then."

What the Donald giveth, the Donald taketh away more! We got less than a year to find out because the Donald is in serious troubles and might face nervous breakdown.

Jas

From: Jas Jain
Sent: Wednesday, October 25, 2017 8:01 AM
To: Jas Jain
Subject: Market Rhyming With 2007? -- Re: S&P 500 Earnings Stink (Graph) -- Re: Why the next stock market crash will be faster and bigger than ever before

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. It seems more and more like rhyming with 2007 has begun, i.e., topping during July-Oct, but the most definitive signal would come when the Trump Tax Cut is passed--the classic buy on the rumor and sell on the news. It would be a bad idea to be long on New Years' Eve. 2018 would be bad for the Donald and the bulls. Honeymoon would be over by then.

Stay tuned.

Jas

See my latest:

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Your Physics Lesson for the Day

2017-11-20T14:13:00.000-08:00

You may not understand this unless you

studied engineering... or physics.

Explanation

Illustration;

Practical Demonstration

And that's your physics lesson for today

Northern California Fires

2017-10-12T10:22:00.001-07:00

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Fw: Northern California Fires
Date:	Thu, 12 Oct 2017 16:08:14 +0000
From:	Jas Jain

Northern California Fires

Someone made a comment on TV reporting about not allowing the fires to get to areas where people inhabit, for decades, and also areas of habitation getting extended more and more closer to the brush and hills, which was the prime case in Anaheim Hills fire. The result was huge accumulation of brush, e.g., dead leaves, year after year after year. This reminded me of a book by economic reporter Greg Ip (see the appended).

In the same vain as fires the US economy has been kept up artificially by not allowing recessions to run their course and correct the imbalances caused during the boom, especially debt. The fiscal and monetary policies have been extremely loose for most of the last 25 years, but particularly since 2002. All the growth since 1999 has been due to extraordinary growth in debt, with household debt and federal debt taking turns at different times.

There would be a day of reckoning for the US economy and according to the latest "Nobel" Prize winner in economics, Richard Thaler, it could be soon.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

Foolproof: Why Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe

Oct 13, 2015 by Greg Ip

We have learned a staggering amount about human nature and disaster -- yet we keep having car crashes, floods, and financial crises. Partly this is because the success we have at making life safer enables us to take bigger risks. As our cities, transport systems, and financial markets become more interconnected and complex, so does the potential for catastrophe.

How do we stay safe? Should we? What if our attempts are exposing us even more to the very risks we are avoiding? …

Oct 12 Napa County Active Fire Incident Map with Perimeters
This is a searchable map showing active burning areas, burned areas, perimeters and closed roads for the 2017 Atlas and Partrick Fires in Napa County, California

California Math & Reading Test Scores - Too Many Not Meeting Standards

2017-10-10T08:34:00.001-07:00

With all the money we spend on education, the data in this graphic is shameful.

Please read:

BEAR EFFICIENCY

2017-06-07T21:29:00.000-07:00

These pictures are said to have been taken by a guy from Grande Cache , Alberta , 1.5 hours south of Grande Prairie , by the Berland River on Highway 40.

Take a look at the time frame in the bottom right-hand corner of each picture ... notice the time stamp.

Then read the bottom remark!

It took just ten minutes to pick her up, take her to dinner, feed her a terrific meal and then get laid.

Is this guy good or what?

Kirk Lindstrom's 2016 Articles

2016-12-31T16:56:00.000-08:00

Series I Bond Rates

2016 (Articles in Red are KEY)

Dec 05 State and Local Sales Tax Rates for 2016 - Chicago, IL has the highest
Dec 03 State Income Tax Rates Map For 2016 California has highest rate @ 13.3%
Nov 02 2CS Sentiment Indicator Falls Below 30
Nov 02 Rates Up To 6.41% Now For Series I Treasury Bonds I Bonds at 2.76%
Oct 26 2017 Social Security COLA: Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2017
Oct 11 Special Promotion for LinkedIn & Facebook - Get October's Issue for Free
Sept 30 Citigroup's Panic - Euphoria Model is back in its "Panic" Zone
Sept 8 2016 Year End S&P500 Price Targets for Major Wall Street Firms
Sept 7 Bob Brinker's Market Update for September 2016
Aug 25 SPY 1% Off Record High While Market Sentiment Continues Recovery
July 7 How Long Will You Live? Life & Death Issues - Life Expectancy
May 29 US Treasury Interest Rates vs S&P500 - Interest Rates vs the Stock Market
May 09 Jets.com Jet Card Pricing
April 11 Best CD Rates - Highest CD Rate Survey for April 2016
April 07 Newest Sentiment Indicator Very Bullish For SPY Even After a 14% Gain
Apr 03 Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model from Citi Investment Research
Mar 14 Make Money In A Flat Market With Asset Allocation & Market Volatility
Mar 13 Winning the Zigs, losing on the Zags - Why small investors usually do poorly
Mar 13 Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance
Mar 10 SPY Up 10.1% Since The Tradable Low - Resistance At 200 Day MA
Mar 03 SPY Up 9.5% Since The Tradable Low - Buy Pullbacks Or Sell?

Feb 28 Fed Funds Interest Rates vs. S&P500 Index
Feb 26 SPY Continues Rally After Sentiment Charts Suggested Tradable Low
Feb 23 2CS Indicator Back Above 20 After Market Rallies 7.5%
Feb 18 SPY Up Sharply Since Sentiment Charts Suggested Tradable Low
Feb 11 With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Tradable Low
Feb 04 With SPY Still Down 10%, Sentiment Charts Suggest A Tradable Bottom
Jan 31 Los Altos Real Estate - Home prices gain another 15.7% in 2015
Jan 26 Tom Drake's 2CS Sentiment Indicator - Buy Signal
Jan 14 Sentiment Charts Reaching Blood In The Street Levels - SPY Down 11%
Jan 14 Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards - 3rd Place long & short term
Jan 08 New Issue CD Rates At Fidelity
Jan 07 Star One Credit Union Savings Account and CD Rates
Jan 07 Weekly Sentiment Charts Falling With SPY Down 8%

The "F" Word

2016-03-26T10:15:00.001-07:00

Quite frankly, the "F" word can be the ONLY word in the English language that accurately describes some situations . . .

The word is 'FEAR' of course!

What in the world were you thinking?

Sometimes I worry about you . . .

--     best regards  
Kirk Lindstrom
http://kirklindstrom.com/  
Blog: http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com  
Newsletter: http://kirklindstrom.com/Newsletter.html  
Facebook http://www.facebook.com/KirkLindstrom  
Twitter http://twitter.com/KirkLindstrom

What Made America “Great?” GUNS!

2016-02-18T15:12:00.001-08:00

Market Update:

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	What Made America "Great?" GUNS!
Date:	Thu, 18 Feb 2016 14:50:46 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

What Made America "Great?" GUNS!

There can't be any debate about the fact that America became the most powerful and the wealthiest state in history. So, what made America the wealthiest and the most powerful state? Guns. The wealth came from the conquest of land, mostly from native Americans and Mexico and guns played the decisive role in that conquest. Rest of the land was "purchased" from Napoleon and the Czar when they needed money badly to hold on to their empires during wars, i.e., distress sale. America has been and remain a fiscal-military state, a model that Hamilton had laid down for the federal govt, along the British model for success, after the Revolution.

The biggest champion of illegal immigration into the US was none other than Ronald Reagan, a Republican cult figure. He oversaw quadrupling of illegal immigration from Mexico during 1980s compared to 1970s. No one has done more since or before. Born-and-bred American political morons are told that illegal immigration can be controlled with laws and political process without the use of guns and violent methods to scare the illegals. In 1950s, illegal Mexican immigrants were sent back with the use of guns and there is no substitute for force, or severe penalties, in enforcing laws, especially proven illegals.

America is NOT a great nation, never was and never will be. A nation full of born-and-bred dopes, political morons, and controlled by Crooks can never be called a great nation.

Rule of Law, my ass. Rule of men who control guns, including military and police, of course!

Jas

SPY Up Sharply Since Sentiment Charts Suggested Another Tradable Low

Donald Trump and the Global Depression

2016-02-11T12:27:00.001-08:00

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	***** Trump and the Global Depression
Date:	Thu, 11 Feb 2016 05:37:25 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

***** Trump and the Global Depression

For the past two years I have repeated my forecast of global depression to begin during 2016-18 more than 100 times, including in private conversations and e-mails, way before Trump announced. Trump would not be the cause of the global depression but a consequence of the conditions in the US that are ripe for a recession that would lead to the depression.

However, President Trump would mean great uncertainty in the global economy and politics and extreme volatility in financial markets—Scams would be clobbered and Treasuries would soar. Scam Lovers would get their heads handed down and bond lovers would be rewarded.

Jas

Feb 11 With SPY Again Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Another Tradable Low

Negative Interest Rates Now Dominate Global Finance

2016-02-02T09:55:00.001-08:00

Jas may have been decades ahead with his belief that rates were in a race to zero and thus US treasuries were a safe place to invest (if held to maturity as the volatility of STRIPS and long bonds have had some huge down years.)

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Negative Interest Rates Now Dominate Global Finance
Date:	Tue, 2 Feb 2016 08:05:36 -0500 (EST)
From:	Navellier and Associates

February 2, 2016

By Louis Navellier

All content in this Introduction to Marketmail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

Negative Interest Rates Now Dominate Global Finance

Thanks to the Bank of Japan - where interest rates are now negative out to eight years - the financial markets now seem to assume that central banks will keep pumping out endless money to help shore up their lackluster economic growth. Specifically, on Friday, the Bank of Japan announced that it would cut its key deposit rate to -0.1% from +0.1% and then said that "we will cut the interest further into negative territory if judged as necessary." Clearly, deflationary forces are now spreading around the globe.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet this week and they may also choose to push their already-low (-0.3%) key interest rate further down to -0.4%, since ECB President Mario Draghi has implied that more accommodation may be necessary to help shore up Italian banks that now have more than 10% non-performing loans and too much emerging market exposure. Meanwhile, in the U.S., fed funds futures are now forecasting virtually no interest rate hike in 2016. So with interest rates collapsing around the globe, stock markets are suddenly more attractive, especially high-dividend stocks with a history of rising yields.

Interestingly, both former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Alan Blinder have said that the Fed should add negative interest rates to its toolkit. In an interview with Marketwatch last Friday, Bernanke said, "I think negative rates are something the Fed will and probably should consider if the situation arises." If so, the U.S. would join the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the central banks of Switzerland, Denmark, and Sweden with negative rates. Clearly, we live in a strange new world!

Global Interest Rates Are Going Down for Real

By Ivan Martchev

Market participants commonly describe the current trend for global interest rates as remaining "lower for longer." Following the rapid and seemingly coordinated moves to flex fiscal stimulus across the developed world, bold actions by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Peoples Bank of China demonstrate the power and direction of this trend. After last week's action, I'd say that global interest rates are going down "for real." The race to zero interest rates is on and there are many entrants.

I posted the table below exactly one month ago and thought it prudent to revisit this set of numbers to gain a snapshot of how the rest of the world compares with the U.S. The collective move lower for global interest rates is fairly well pronounced in just the past four weeks. Alarming adjectives like "desperate" are being used to describe current central bank policy-making as deflation, so prevalent in emerging markets, is threatening to intensify in the rather unimpressive recoveries among developed economies.

Even as the Dow rallied almost 400 points on Friday, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-yr Treasury Note fell to 1.93% during the same session. Normally, such a spike in equities finds an equal and opposite reaction from the bond market, reflecting a "risk off" sentiment. This was not the case as a large portion of investors weren't drinking the Kool Aid of the stunning move from the Bank of Japan.

Global Overnight Rates in the Red Zone

Investors woke up to a fresh shot in the arm for equities last Friday after the Bank of Japan launched a surprise attack on its stagnant growth by adopting a negative interest rate policy. Apparently the BOJ liked what it is seeing from other countries that are already collecting interest from depositors. Japan has joined the EU, Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden in imposing negative interest rates with the dual purpose of devaluing currencies and battling deflationary forces. With this latest central bank trend now fully in play, more than a fifth of the world's GDP is covered by a central bank with negative rates. (See January 29, 2016 ZeroHedge.com: "Negative Interest Rates Show Desperation of Central Banks.")

Charts are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The big question going forward is whether the U.S. consumer can become a sufficient counter-lever to deflationary forces fueled by downward pressure on commodity prices and a rising dollar that will only rally further if the Fed stays the course with its now-fabled "dot plan," which depicts monetary markers for what interest rates should be going forward. Indeed, the Fed's dot plan has been reworked three times since last March with the forward dots moving progressively lower on the chart with each revision.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Growth Mail

All content in "Growth Mail" represents the opinion of Gary Alexander.

A Dormant Winter Often Precedes a Spring Rally!

By Gary Alexander

"When Chekhov saw the long winter, he saw a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that winter is just another step in the cycle of life."

-- Bill Murray as weather reporter Phil Connors in "Groundhog Day" (1993)

The 1993 movie Groundhog Day depicts actor Bill Murray as a weather reporter doomed to relive the same daily routine, over and over again, while everyone else in the movie thinks the day is fresh and new.

It's the same with economic history: The business cycle is predictable, but it always seems to come as a surprise to some traders. Economic historians are the Bill Murrays of the world; they've seen it all before.

This recovery has climbed a wall of worry ever since the market began to recover in March of 2009. We have seen five annual worry-fests over Greek debt, sometimes leavened with crises in the Crimea, China, or Cyprus. We saw market panic over America's debt ceiling and credit rating in August 2011. October 2014 brought Ebola scares and then China fears pushed stocks lower in August, September, and January.

In January, the S&P 500 fell 11.3% (intra-day, January 20), but it closed January down "only" 5.07%.

The latest worry is that the U.S. GDP only grew 0.7% in the last quarter of 2015. Does that mean we're entering a recession? Probably not. In an age of deflation, slow growth is certainly better than no growth. When inflation is near zero, any positive growth is good. To demonstrate that fact, let me take inflation out of the GDP calculation. Ignoring inflation, nominal growth has averaged 4.0% since 2010:

A new (January 12, 2016) 778-page magnum opus by Robert J. Gordon, "The Rise and Fall of American Growth," foresees the end of growth in America, as in his final chapter: "Long-Run American Economic Growth Slows to a Crawl." He also argues that today's youth may be the first generation in American history that fails to exceed their parents' standard of living. (I've heard that dismal argument for every generation since my birth in 1945; but it hasn't happened yet, and it probably won't happen this time.)

What Robert Gordon and other pessimists fail to see is (1) that which is invisible - future technological changes - and (2) a statistical fallacy called the Law of Large Numbers. Gordon looks at slower growth rates and says we're slowing down. The book tags 1970 as the peak of U.S. productivity growth; so let's look at 1969, when America recorded its first trillion-dollar GDP. The GDP increase in nominal terms in 1969 was $77.6 billion, rising from $942.5 billion in 1968 to $1.1099 trillion in 1969. But even with high inflation, the GDP grew only $77.6 billion in 1969 vs. over 10 times that growth, $799.3 billion in 2011.

The Law of Large Numbers tells us that it is difficult to grow by large percentages as an economy grows to super-sized status. The most dramatic example today is China. In the 1990s and early 2000s, China's economy enjoyed several years of double-digit GDP gains. But now that China's economy produces over $10 trillion per year in GDP, any 10% growth rates become highly unlikely. Even 7% represents a stretch.

When China's economy stood at $732 billion in 1995, an 11% gain represented about $80 billion. At $10 trillion in 2014, a slower 7% growth rate represents $725 million, or about nine times the absolute growth in 1995. Instead of lamenting China's slower growth, we should get used to China's slower growth rate.

Another cause of celebration is the rise of China's middle class. China's per-capita GDP was barely $600 two decades ago, and it grew 12.5-fold to $7,596 in 2014. This is one of the greatest success stories in the history of the world. But to think that China can continue to grow at 10% or even 7% a year is ridiculous.

The Market Often Rallies as Spring Approaches

According to Bespoke Investment Group (in "B.I.G. Tips," January 29, 2016, "February Seasonality"), February is a lackluster month (+0.25% over the last 20 years, on average), but April is the best month, averaging 2.6% gains, while March adds another 1.36%. As this chart shows, the March-April surge is second only to the October-December increase over the last 20 years, while May through September is generally flat, as are January and February. In a phrase, "if winter comes, can spring be far behind?"

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Looking at this chart in seasonal terms, Spring and Fall are strong. This chart shows a lift-off in mid-March, with strength until a pre-summer peak in June. By contrast, the S&P 500 has been virtually flat in the summer and the first 75 days of the year, until some spring flowers (and dormant stocks) blossom.

March 15 is especially significant to the market's chances for growth this year. As I have indicated in recent columns, one reason why the market is in such a funky mood is the prospect of having one of the current poll leaders of either Party in the White House next year, i.e., Republicans Donald Trump, or leading Democrats Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. I am personally hoping for a more pro-freedom Republican to emerge from the pack by March 15. But that takes patience. With all the brouhaha over Iowa this week, it's hard to hold your emotional horses in check for the real horse races in early March.

February is only important in four states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina; but 14 states vote on March 1 (Super Tuesday), then nine more states and Puerto Rico vote March 6-8, then five key swing states vote on March 15: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. We'll probably know who our major Party candidates will be by March 15 - and the stock market tends to like certainty, so the real meaning of Groundhog Day this year is that we have six weeks until political realities emerge.

Global Mail

All content in "Global Mail" represents the opinion of Ivan Martchev.

The "Short of the Century" May Last Quite a Bit Longer

By Gary Alexander

Those in the forecasting business know that markets love to humble them on a regular basis. One such humbling event of late has been the precipitous decline in long-term government bond rates around the globe, handing substantial losses to those who were positioned for a round of rising rates.

The latest inspiration of the dive in global government bond yields has been the decision by the Bank of Japan to experiment with negative short-term interest rates in the wholesale funding markets for Japanese financial institutions - the closest equivalent of which is the fed funds rate.

To demonstrate the ability of markets to humble even the greatest of traders, I penned a piece on May 4, 2015 in Market Mail titled "The Short of the Century May Last A Little Longer," I showed the example of market gurus taking it on the chin with bombastic statements like "the short of the century" for governmental bond markets - like the late and legendary Barton Biggs about Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in 2003, and more recently, in 2015, similar statements about German bunds by dethroned bond king Bill Gross and the newly-appointed bond king Jeffrey Gundlach. While I have the deepest respect for Gundlach, the German deflationary situation was rather precarious and, in my opinion, it was not as big of a lay-up as he was thinking. To refresh your memory, here is what I wrote about that trade last May:

"Gundlach's point is simple: If you short a bond that is trading at a negative yield - like the German two-year bunds - you can't really lose: At maturity you are getting paid at par. So if one leverages the trade at 100X on a bund that at the time was yielding -0.20%, one makes 20% at maturity. Sure, he is using wholesale funding markets for leverage that can carry lower interest rates than what a mortal individual investor can get, so his math works. I don't doubt he can make money in the short-term, or even in a year or two, just like Barton Biggs did with JGBs in 2003, but are bunds really the new 'short of the century?'

"In institutional markets, as the Gundlach example shows, the leverage can be 100X or higher in some cases so a fraction of a percent yield can be capitalized upon. Such sophisticated trading is not within the reach of the individual investor, nor should it be as 100X leverage is almost an assured road to the poorhouse. One rookie mistake at 100X can wipe out a retail investor."

So what happened to Gundlach's suggested trade since he suggested it in early 2015?

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

German 2-year notes have sunk further into negative territory. So while in theory he is correct and when they mature at par (100 cents on the euro), if he was short German 2-year notes at maturity he was going to make close to 20% if he was leveraged at a rate of 100X. However, if one put on the Gundlach trade with the German 2-year notes at around -0.20% last spring, one would now be losing 29% (at 100X leverage) as those same bonds now yield -0.49%. (To be fair to Gundlach, his 2-year note trade would no longer be a 2-year note trade as those bonds have a constantly falling maturity and now they would be one year and three months away from maturing if he put that trade on when he suggested it in April 2015.)

Be that as it may, my point is to demonstrate how a "no brainer" short-of-the-century trade can turn out to be rather problematic for quite some time before it works out. JGBs had a record low yield of 10 basis points (0.10%) last Friday. One would have lost quite a bit of money if one was shorting JGBs since 2003 as Barton Biggs suggested, although granted, that trade did work for a year or so after he suggested it.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

How is it possible that JGB yields are at 10 basis points while the Bank of Japan is running a QE program that on a relative basis is three times more aggressive than the Fed's, which in the process has unleashed a tsunami of yen aimed at boosting prices in Japan? (See my May 31, 2013 Marketwatch column, "Repercussions from the Yen Surge.") In 1990, Japan experienced the same type of crash that China is experiencing today: Too much fixed-asset investment driven by ever-rising borrowing hit the wall and domestic consumption never really picked up. To boot, the banking system had issues for years with credit growth and bad loans. Then, the population began to shrink and age. Older people do not usually spend money as younger people do. So no matter how much the BOJ lowers interest rates and depresses the value of the yen, their deflationary malaise continues.

The Japanese realized that even their ambitious QE operation was not helping as much as they had hoped, so in October the chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, encouraged women to "contribute" to the nation by bearing lots of children. He was immediately criticized as he brought back memories of wartime Japan when women were encouraged to reproduce in order to boost the nation's military power. (See October 1, 2015 Telegraph article, "Japan politician tells women to 'contribute' by having more babies.") Despite his critics, the basis of the cabinet secretary's argument is demographically correct, as a shrinking population virtually guarantees that what the BOJ is doing at the moment is only a temporary patch for a much bigger demographic problem. After all, central banks cannot print more babies.

The BOJ monetary machinations raise interesting questions about the yen, which has been acting rather peculiarly in this global deflationary environment. There is no doubt in my mind that the much more aggressive nature of Japan's QE can be called printing, given the different design of the QE program and the outright purchases of stocks by the BOJ as part of it (see my Marketwatch article referenced above).

The U.S. QE program, by comparison, cannot be called printing. I think the U.S. QE is better described as force feeding credit on a financial system that was in the process of deleveraging naturally. The Fed was much more successful compared to the BOJ with a relatively less aggressive QE program (relative to the size of the U.S. economy) due to the lack of demographic problems and a more flexible economic model.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

It is not surprising that as the aggressive Japanese QE operation commenced in 2013, the yen sold off from under 80 to over 120 (the USDJPY rate is inverse so a rising chart signifies a weaker yen, or more yen per dollar). It is rather telling that over the past year the decline in the Japanese yen has stalled, even as the BOJ has pressed full QE speed ahead with its printing. This is one of the reasons that forced BOJ's hand in experimenting with negative interest rates last week.

In fact, if one were to look purely at the technicals on this inverse USDJPY chart, it looks like the yen is putting in a rounding top, or possibly a head-and-shoulders top, and the chart may decline further should it break major support at 116, which we tested in January. I believe that the yen is acting counter to the BOJ policies simply because the availability of "carry trades" (where one can use the yen as a funding currency) has greatly diminished and the carry trades that have been put on have had to be unwound, pushing the yen higher! Let's look at an example of a carry trade gone bad.

"Crossover Yen-Vy," or How the Yen Carry Trade Backfired

In a carry trade, a financial institution borrows yen at a tiny interest rate. Only financial institutions can access wholesale yen funding markets so individuals cannot do carry trades - not the kind described here, anyway. Then, the bank sells the yen for Brazilian real (BRL) and buys any other higher interest yielding asset in Brazil to capture the interest rate differential. This is the essence of a carry trade - to borrow in a low-interest-rate currency like the yen and buy assets in a high-yielding currency like the Brazilian real.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

The problem is that the Brazilian real had a really bad year in 2015, down nearly 50%. It is not going to be a very good carry trade if one can get 16% interest in Brazilian government bonds but lose three times that on the exchange rate. The USDBRL exchange rate is shown in the chart but since the USDJPY rate has been relatively stable over the past year the JPYBRL exchange rate has also dramatically weakened. In other words, because of the collapse in commodity prices that is hurting the Brazilian currency, yen-funded carry trades in Brazil have not worked. And this is the case for many other commodity currencies as well. This is why we are in the absurd situation of seeing a stable yen when the BOJ is printing in a manner that may make Japan look more like Easter Island. It will be even more absurd if the yen appreciates past 116 per dollar with negative interest rates in Japan and commodity prices falling further courtesy of the Chinese economic unravelling. Regrettably, I believe this is quite possible.

Sector Spotlight

All content of "Sector Spotlight" represents the opinion of Jason Bodner.

A Negative Times a Negative Equals a Positive!

By Jason Bodner

With all the negativity going around recently, I decided that I was tired of feeling the continuous weight of the bleak headlines. When everything feels overwhelmingly negative, it can breed a new hunger for positivity, so I decided to be positive this week! On that note, here's some good news for dieters: There are several foods that require more calories to ingest and digest than are present in the foods themselves.

Therefore, foods like celery, lettuce, grapefruit, and several others have negative calories. So if you eat a few celery sticks or a bowl of plain lettuce every meal, you will lose weight. You'll probably still be hungry, but it's simple science: If calories burned are greater than calories consumed, weight is lost. It's when you smother that salad with creamy ranch dressing and throw in toppings like cheese, crispy noodles, and other goodies that you end up with a Big Salad that has more calories than a Big Mac!

Negatives can be positive. Sometimes, negative things are good for us. Japan went positively negative on its surprise interest rate decision, cutting rates from +0.1 to -0.1%. Upon hearing that Friday, the market felt refreshed, like eating a salad after a week-long binge on pizza - hence Friday's strong finish. As noted elsewhere in this issue, the ECB is finding that the negative rates imposed might actually be having an adverse effect of causing cash accumulation instead of the desired redistribution into the economy. But generally speaking, negative rates are being positively embraced. In this case, negatives can be positive.

Positives can be negative. Today's negative environment and the general lament that it's causing optimists to shine like beacons in a storm. We have talked here constantly about how "the best defense is a great offense," meaning that we should own the best companies with growing sales and earnings. This past week saw some nice earnings surprises and led to some much-needed cheer in the market. But many companies, , despite having upbeat earnings reports, were cautious in lowering their future guidance, citing global growth slowdown. Some of the more successful and more volatile growth stories have met with heavy selling in the market for weeks. We have seen companies with double-digit sales and earnings growth experience 50% corrections in their prices in just a few weeks. Positives can be negative.

A lot of data that I consistently look at, including new highs and new lows, volume and volatility, leave me confident that we have put in the low for a little while. Every time I say that, however, we see a new swath of volatility. But recently, the number of new lows has slowed dramatically, and we are starting to witness significant short covering. As earnings come in, we just find ourselves in a situation where any news that comes out which seems less bad than expected might result in positive reactions.

One last thing before we get into the sectors. I just want to point to an interesting (positive) chart I came across on Yahoo Finance. This is a 100+ year chart with 10-year annualized returns plotted on the y axis and time on the x axis. It actually suggests that the bull market everyone suspects is now over may have another few years to run. It's interesting to note that blips like Ebola and the emerging market scare don't seem very apparent on this scale. To be fair, not everyone has the investing time horizon of Mr. Buffett, but it's refreshing to have an optimistic view of the market in the midst of seemingly endless gloominess.

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Some Surprising Positives in January's Sector Scorecard

As we continue to ride a highly volatile market, the sectors last week echoed this turbulence. Finding any bright spots after January's disappointing overall performance has been tough, but the S&P Telecom Services Index was January's best performer, at +5.48%, with Utilities not far behind at +4.90%.

Healthcare sagged last week as it resumed its place in the cross hairs of leading Democratic candidates' sights. The Materials sector was the second worst performer, but it put in a positive week for the first time in many weeks. In fact, looking at the full-month performance of the sectors, we see Materials in last place with a -10.62% return. Energy was quite strong for the week in the wake of crude oil's monstrous squeeze higher; but it was also the week's most volatile performer, down 4.52% on Monday and up 3.78% on Tuesday. Looking at the daily returns of the S&P 500 Energy Index, it's easy to get queasy.

When you look around and the crowd begins to seem overly negative, it is very easy to go along with the crowd. In fact, it is human nature to go with the crowd, not against it. We've seen this often in human history, such as the Tulip bubble mania in Holland (1637), the Salem witch trials (1692), and in the last 20 years the great tech bubble, the housing bubble, and now the deflated energy bubble.

The interesting thing about crowds running together is that, just like in the markets, when things are good and prices are on the way up, movements tend to be more measured and relaxed. But when things turn negative, they get amplified very quickly and people pile on even faster. As investors have been swept up in the worry and dread of global slowdown and deflation, we almost expect to wake up and find equity markets trading lower. Yet as sentiment becomes unanimously negative, the positive has a way of creeping in. As American writer Elbert Hubbard said; "positive anything is better than negative nothing."

Stat of the Week

All content in this "Stat of the Week" section of Market Mail represents the opinion of Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, Inc.

U.S. Growth Slips to 0.7% Last Quarter

By Louis Navellier

Last Friday, the Commerce Department announced that their preliminary estimate for fourth-quarter GDP was an annual pace of 0.7%, which is a sharp deceleration from an annual pace of 2% in the third quarter and 3.9% in the second quarter. For all of 2015, U.S. GDP grew at a 2.4% annual pace, the same as 2014. Overall, consumers are now driving virtually all of U.S. GDP growth, but consumer spending decelerated to a 2.2% annual growth rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 3% rate in the third quarter.

Additionally, exports declined 2.5% in the fourth quarter, while imports rose 1.1%, so a wider trade deficit is also causing a bigger drag on GDP growth. Business investment also remains poor and declined 5.3% in the fourth quarter. Shrinking inventories also put downward pressure on fourth-quarter GDP.

Before this downbeat GDP data came out, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Tuesday and Wednesday. The official FOMC statement released on Wednesday said that the Fed is "closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook." Although the FOMC acknowledged that "economic growth slowed late last year," they also said that the U.S. economy is still growing at a "moderate pace." There was a significant change of language when they said that business investment is now "moderate" vs. the "strong" in the previous (December 16) statement. In other words, the Fed did its best to imply that it may not be raising key interest rates anytime soon. In fact, the fed funds futures market no longer anticipates that the Fed will raise key interest rates at its mid-March FOMC meeting.

Even though the Fed and many businesses have expressed concern, consumers are not that concerned. The Conference Board announced last Tuesday that consumer confidence rose to 98.1 in January, up from 96.3 in December. Consumer sentiment is tied more to housing prices than the stock market, so it's fitting that on Wednesday, the Commerce Department announced that new home sales rose 10.8% to an annual pace of 544,000 in December, up from a revised 491,000 in November. For all of 2015, new home sales rose 14.5% to 501,000. During the past 12 months, new home prices rose 4% to $294,575 compared with 2014. Continued home price appreciation remains crucial to boosting overall consumer confidence.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that December durable goods orders declined 5.1%, the biggest monthly decline in 18 months. Defense orders plunged 46% and commercial aircraft orders declined 29%. Excluding transportation orders, durable goods orders still declined 1.2% in December due to weakness in key industries. Business investment in 2015 was the weakest since 2009 and continues to put downward pressure on durable goods. For example, shipments of core goods declined 0.2%.

Commodity Price Deflation is Punishing Russia

Even though our leading indicators are mixed, the U.S. is doing well compared to Russia, whose Federal Statistics Office announced last week that its GDP contracted 3.7% in 2015. Retail sales declined 10% and business investment fell 8.4%. This is the second year in a row that Russia's GDP has contracted. In the past two years, the Russian ruble has fallen a shocking 58%, from 32.5 per U.S. dollar at the start of 2014 to 77 per dollar now, according to Trading Economics. Obviously, such a dramatic plunge can destroy consumer purchasing power. Since many countries in the Middle East, North Africa, as well as Russia and Venezuela are overly dependent on crude oil prices, it is very possible that unrest in these countries will persist and some borders may be redrawn, especially in the current Middle East conflicts.

The real risk in the global stock market is that commodity deflation has devastated commodity-related stocks and commodity-dependent nations. The energy sector malaise has now spread to many financial stocks, due to their growing default risk. I am not yet ready to say that deflation is spreading to tech stocks, since Apple's operating margins continue to expand and it still has pricing power; but the real risk to the stock market is persistent selling pressure as deflation envelops the globe. For example, there is already a lot of selling pressure emanating from sovereign wealth funds, especially in the Middle East (see: Financial Times, February 1, "Sovereign wealth funds drive turbulent trading.")

Overall, there are a lot of wildcards that may impact financial markets in 2016. The Bank of Japan's abrupt switch to a negative interest rate policy was definitely one big surprise. Now it will be the ECB's turn to possibly surprise us further. One thing is certain: Countries are continuing to systematically devalue their currencies, so the U.S. dollar is destined to remain strong due to higher real interest rates and better growth than many other countries. This means that a stronger dollar will continue to put more downward pressure on commodity prices, so I expect these deflationary forces to continue to spread.

The Presidential election outcome also remains uncertain, but after the Florida "winner take all" primary on March 15, there should be just two or three leading Republican candidates left, so political uncertainty should diminish in the upcoming months. In the meantime, Libya remains a wildcard, as does its crude oil production, since ISIS is now effectively taking over the country. Three ISIS leaders were recently killed via long range snipers, so either special forces from selected countries are in Libya or possibly this is the start of a much more serious conflict that is about to escalate. Ironically, this also means that crude oil prices could surge if there is any kind of prolonged conflict. So, a lot of wild cards are in play in 2016.

Although information in these reports has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier's judgment as of the date the report was created and are subject to change without notice. These reports are for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in these reports must take into account existing public information on such securities or any registered prospectus.

Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any securities recommendations made by Navellier. in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of securities made in this report.

Fragile Forty The World Lost $17 Trillion In 6 Months

2016-02-01T08:11:00.000-08:00

Sentiment Charts Show Blood Flowing In The Street
SPY Was Down 14%

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	FW: FWC: The Fragile Forty & How The World Lost $17 Trillion In 6 Months
Date:	Sat, 30 Jan 2016 07:51:34 -0800
From:	Jas Jain
To:	Kirk Lindstrom

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From: jas_jain
Subject: FWC: The Fragile Forty & How The World Lost $17 Trillion In 6 Months
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2016 07:20:12 -0800

FWC: The Fragile Forty & How The World Lost $17 Trillion In 6 Months

Sabri Posted: The Fragile Forty & How The World Lost $17 Trillion In 6 Months

The bubble economy began in the US in 1995 and is now 21 years old. As seen in the graph from the article we have had three bubbles since and the third bubble burst is already in progress. My son and his colleague, both accountants, have zero experience in a non-bubble economy and they are totally unprepared for what lies ahead when there is no Forth Turning of the bubble after the next bust. The scams and real estate prices are going to hit new lows compared to the past 6 years as central bankers' manipulation of the economies fail, as it always does, and the global economy sinks.

It is safe to say that another $50Tr loss in equities and at least $50Tr loss in real estate, worldwide, is in the cards over the next few years when the global depression is in full force.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-21/fragile-forty-how-world-lost-17-trillion-6-months

The Fragile Forty & How The World Lost $17 Trillion In 6 Months

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 21:45 -0500

Jan 31 Los Altos Real Estate - Home prices gain another 15.7% in 2015
Jan 26 Tom Drake's 2CS Sentiment Indicator - Buy Signal
Jan 08 New Issue CD Rates At Fidelity
Jan 07 Star One Credit Union Savings Account and CD Rates

US Housing Peaked

2016-01-31T14:41:00.001-08:00

When did US housing prices peak? (Or have they peaked?)

Jas Jain gives his answer for DEMAND below.

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	The US Housing Peaked at the End of 2015Q2
Date:	Sat, 30 Jan 2016 08:37:42 -0800
From:	Jas Jain <jas_jain

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The US Housing Peaked at the End of 2015Q2

The home ownership rate for the US as a whole have been declining for the past ten years.

Vacancy rates, rental as well as homeowner, peaked 5 years ago and had been declining up to 2015Q2 and now they are both back on the rise. For the year as a whole there are more vacant units at the end of 2015 compared with the end of 2014. This according to the latest report released last week.

Total vacant Units peaked in 2009Q1, the same time the the US scam market bottomed. The total vacant units bottomed in 2015Q2, the same time that the US scam market peaked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jas

From Los Altos Real Estate - Home prices gain another 15.7% in 2015

FWIW, back in 1998 and 1999when homes in Los Altos were "only" worth $750,000 to $1,000,000 Jas Jain told me I should cash out because the stock market would crash (Nasdaq to 400) and my home would sell for $250,000. Well, he had the digits close... but it passed through $2.5M without going any lower.

See Los Altos, Los Altos Real Estate, Real Estate

So, if you predict, predict often!

Ken Rogoff on Debt Super Cycle

2016-01-20T09:03:00.001-08:00

Read

Jan 14 Sentiment Charts Reaching Blood In The Street Levels With SPY Down 11%
Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards
New Series I Bonds Offer Attractive Rates
2016 Social Security COLA: Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2016

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:	Ken Rogoff: "We Are In the MIDDLE of the Debt Super Cycle"
Date:	Wed, 20 Jan 2016 07:58:17 -0800
From:	Jas Jain

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Ken Rogoff: "We Are In the MIDDLE of the Debt Super Cycle"

He was being interviewed by Bloomberg in Davos.

He said that it started in the US, then moved to Europe and then to the emerging markets. I fully agree and it can only end in a global deflationary depression. Of course, China is the mother of the debt bubble right now. Rogoff said that he is very worried about China. For the past two years, my time window for the global depression to begin has been 2016-18.

It is the debt, stupid!

Jas