Jason Kelly

Bulls and Crises

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 02:49:50 PST

The following is excerpted from yesterday’s Kelly Letter: One outfit thinking we’re entering a bullish half-year at least is Birinyi. They fired off two bullish notes on Friday, one showing that the S&P 500 is up more than 20 pct in the past 78 trading days, a situation that’s happened only 15 times since 1945. [...]

Kunstler’s Zombie Deathwatch Forecast

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 02:43:59 PST

Here’s one for all you cynics with eyes wide open. James Howard Kunstler posted his “Bang and Whimper” forecast at Phil’s Stock World, and it’s a humdinger. Some highlights: The biggest political shock awaiting us is the massive disruption of the major party nominating conventions next summer, when thousands of angry citizens descend on Tampa [...]

Japan Cuts Growth Forecast

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 02:19:46 PST

Here in Japan, people are dour as the Bank of Japan cut its growth outlook for fiscal 2012 to +2.0 pct from its October estimate of +2.2 pct. It cited heightened concern about the eurozone crisis crimping the global economy, and the strong yen. Shortly after that, the government said it’s likely to fail in [...]

Dublin Threatened With ‘Financial Bomb’ By EU Troika

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 02:14:03 PST

From the Irish Examiner: The troika warned that a financial “bomb” would go off in Dublin, if Anglo senior bondholders were not repaid, a Government minister has said. He said the troika of EC, ECB and IMF, which is supplying Ireland’s bailout loans, had issued a stark warning to the Government about the consequences of [...]

An EU Crisis Scenario

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 01:50:54 PST

From yesterday’s Kelly Letter comes the following excerpt from the January Policy Brief from The Peterson Institute for International Economics: Faced with the reality of failing adjustment programs, difficult politics, and rising risks that one or more peripheral nations may rebel, or Germany may rescind its support, investors may simply decide that the cumulative risks [...]

Don’t Chase The Rally

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:11:41 PST

From Michael Kahn’s Jan. 19 column at Barron’s: It appears the stock market is finally firing on all burners despite a raft of problems still facing the global economy. … But don’t get complacent or enthusiastic about this rally. While stocks have pushed above short-term technical resistance levels, they are far from being in the [...]

Canada’s Oil Will Get To Market

jason@jasonkelly.com (Jason Kelly) — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 02:13:23 PST

The Obama administration rejected the Keystone XL oil pipeline yesterday, a project intended to move Canadian tar sands oil through the US to the Gulf of Mexico. While environmentalists jumped on the decision as a victory for the climate, it was not so much a green move by the White House as it was a [...]